7/15: Colorado Democrats, Udall and Hickenlooper Lead, But Under 50%

In his effort to be re-elected to the U.S. Senate from Colorado, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall has a single-digit advantage over Republican Congressman Cory Gardner.  Udall’s seven point lead over Gardner is based on his greater support from independents, women, and especially Latino voters.  In the contest for governor, incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper leads his Republican challenger former Congressman Bob Beauprez.  A majority of Coloradans approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing as governor including many independent voters among whom he leads Beauprez by double-digits.  A notable proportion of Colorado residents are not familiar with Beauprez.

Click Here for Complete July 15, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Colorado Release and Tables

“Udall has the early advantage to hold his Senate seat,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, he’s under 50% with a low favorability rating.”

Poll Points

• 48% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support incumbent Democrat Mark Udall for U.S. Senate compared with 41% for his Republican challenger Cory Gardner.  10% of voters are undecided.
• There is a wide partisan divide.  Udall has the support of 89% of Democrats and Gardner is favored by 83% of Republicans.  Udall leads Gardner handily among independent voters, 50% to 34%.
• A notable gender gap exists in this contest.  The candidates for U.S. Senate run neck and neck among men, but Udall is ahead among women, 50% to 38%.
• There is also a racial divide.  Udall and Gardner are closely matched among white voters, 46% to 44%.  However, Udall is favored over Gardner, 58% to 27%, among Latino voters.
• Udall’s favorability rating statewide is not strong.  41% of residents rate him positively and 35% rate him negatively.  Coloradans evenly divide in their opinion about Gardner.  31% see him favorably, and 31% view him unfavorably.
• Incumbent Governor Hickenlooper leads his Republican challenger Bob Beauprez, 49% to 43%, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.
• Hickenlooper receives the support of 90% of Democrats, and Beauprez has 84% among Republicans.  But, the key factor in the contest is Hickenlooper’s majority support, 52%, from independent voters compared with 35% for Beauprez.
• A majority of Latino voters, 55%, support Hickenlooper while 34% favor Beauprez.
• 54% of Coloradans approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing as governor including 56% of independents.  Nearly half of state residents, 49%, have a favorable impression of the governor.  40% of residents do not offer an opinion of Beauprez.

President Obama and Congressional Republicans Not Popular

• Only 40% of Coloradans approve of President Obama’s job performance.  Nearly half, 49%, disapprove.
• Colorado residents are even less enamored with the Congressional Republicans. 21% of adults statewide approve of the job they are doing, and 64% disapprove.  Even a plurality of Republicans, 45%, disapprove of the Congressional GOP.  40% approve of the job they are doing.
• 63% of Coloradans are unhappy with where the nation is headed including 90% of Republicans and 64% of independents.  29% believe the nation is on the right course including 58% of Democrats.

 
OK Pathway to Citizenship, Limit Greenhouse Gases, but No to Health Care Act

• A majority of Colorado residents, 55%, support the idea of a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States.  A pathway to citizenship is favored by both white and Latino residents.
• 50% of Coloradans approve of a requirement to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming even if utility costs are passed on to consumers.  40% disapprove of the proposal to require companies to do this.  76% of Democrats support the proposal, 52% of independents, and 28% of Republicans share this view.
• The Affordable Care Act is considered a bad idea by 51% of Colorado residents including 45% who strongly hold this view.  In contrast, 36% view the health care plan as a good idea of which 25% strongly have this opinion.

Polarized Over Firearms, Little Support for More Limits on Contraception or Abortion

• Regulation of the sale of firearms is a very controversial issue which divides residents in the state.  Although a majority of Colorado residents, 52%, are less likely to support a candidate who wants fewer restrictions on the sale of firearms, 50% of Coloradans are also less likely to support a candidate who advocates increasing limits to their sale.
• Most Coloradans, 70%, are less likely to support a candidate who favors greater restrictions on the use of contraception.  Only 16% are more likely to back a candidate with this view.
• 67% of Colorado residents are less likely to vote for a candidate who wants to increase restrictions on abortion.  25% are more likely to support a candidate who advocates greater limits.
• Although there is a gender gap on opinions about the sale of firearms, there is little difference in the views of men and women on the use of contraception or abortion.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables