10/3: Obama and Romney Neck and Neck in Virginia

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (VA Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

The Impact of the Debates

When did Virginia likely voters make their decision about which candidate to support? 91% made their choice before last Wednesday’s debate. Seven percent did so after the debate, and 2% are unsure.

Looking at each candidate’s support, 93% of likely voters who back the president made their selection before the debate compared with 6% who decided after the matchup. Among Romney’s supporters, 90% made their selection pre-debate while 8% did so post-debate.

While 88% of independent likely voters chose a candidate pre-debate, one in ten — 10% — picked a candidate after the debate.

When it comes to the details of the debate, 61% of registered voters mostly watched the debate. 23%, however, mostly viewed news coverage about it. 15% of Virginia registered voters did not watch the debate nor follow the news about it.

Young voters in Virginia were less likely to watch the debate than older voters. 56% of registered voters 30 to 44, 63% of those 45 to 59, and 71% of those 60 and older watched the debate unfold. This compares with 45% of those under the age of 30. Among this group, 30% followed news coverage about it while 25% neither saw the debate nor watched the news for the details of the encounter.

Table: Candidate Selection Made Before or After Debate (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Information Source for First Presidential Debate (VA Registered Voters)

Majority Still Views Obama Favorably…Romney Experiences Bump in Favorable Rating

51% of Virginia likely voters have a favorable opinion of President Obama. 45% do not, and 3% are unsure.

In last week’s NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll in Virginia, 52% thought well of Obama. 44% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 4% were unsure.

There has been an improvement in Romney’s favorability rating. 49% have a positive impression of him while 44% have an unfavorable one. Seven percent are unsure.

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question a week ago, Romney’s favorability rating was upside down. 45% had a favorable view of Romney while 47% had an unfavorable opinion of the candidate. Eight percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Perceptions of the Running Mates Pre-Debate

44% of likely voters in Virginia have a positive impression of Vice President Joe Biden. This compares with 46% who have an unfavorable view of him. 10% are unsure.

In last week’s survey, 44% of likely voters had a favorable opinion of Biden. 45% had an unfavorable one, and 11% were unsure.

Looking at Paul Ryan’s image, 44% think well of him while 40% do not. 16% are unsure.

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question, 45% of likely voters had a positive opinion of Ryan while 41% had a less than stellar impression of him. 14% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Vice President Joe Biden Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Paul Ryan Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Romney and Obama Close on Economy…Obama with Advantage Over Romney on Foreign Policy

Among registered voters in Virginia, 47% think Romney is the better candidate to turn around the country’s economy. 45% say Obama is the stronger candidate on the issue. Eight percent are unsure. Likely voters share these views. 48% of these voters believe Romney is better suited to deal with the nation’s economy. This compares with 45% who say Obama is more prepared to deal with the issue. Eight percent are unsure.

In last week’s poll, 46% of registered voters thought Romney would better handle the issue of the economy while 45% said Obama would. Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

On the issue of foreign policy, Obama — 49% — has the advantage over Romney — 43% — among registered voters statewide. Eight percent are unsure. Similar proportions of likely voters share these views. 49% of Virginia likely voters believe Obama is the stronger candidate on the issue compared with 44% who say Romney is better prepared to deal with this area. Seven percent are unsure.

In last week’s NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll, Obama — 50% — led Romney — 41% — on this question among Virginia registered voters. At that time, 9% were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (VA Likely Voters)

Obama Approval Rating at 48% in Virginia

48% of registered voters in Virginia approve of the job President Obama is doing in office while 46% believe he is falling short. Six percent are unsure.

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s survey earlier this month, the same proportion — 48% — applauded the president’s job performance. 45% disapproved, and 6% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Virginia (VA Registered Voters)

Nation Needs a New Course, Says Majority

53% of registered voters in Virginia report the nation is moving in the wrong direction. However, 43% believe the country’s trajectory is correct. Four percent are unsure.

Similar proportions held this view in last week’s NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll in Virginia. 53% said the country was on the wrong path while 42% said it was on the right one. Five percent were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (VA Registered Voters)

Competitive Race for U.S. Senate in Virginia

47% of likely voters in Virginia, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, support Democrat Tim Kaine in the U.S. Senate race in the state. This compares with 46% for Republican George Allen. Seven percent are undecided.

The race has tightened. Last week, 49% of likely voters, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, backed Kaine while 44% were for Allen. Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.

Among registered voters in Virginia, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee, Kaine receives the support of 47%, and Allen garners 45%. Seven percent are undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Virginia: Kaine/Allen (VA Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Virginia: Kaine/Allen (VA Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Click Here for Complete October 3, 2012 Virginia NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Tags: Allen, Biden, Kaine, Obama, presidential election, Romney, Ryan, Virginia

10/3: Obama and Romney Neck and Neck in Virginia

October 3, 2012 by Marist Poll
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

5 Comments

With the presidential candidates about to face off in the first debate, 48% of likely voters in Virginia, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, support President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden while 46% back Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Only 1% is for another candidate, and 5% are undecided.

“Not only do Obama and Romney have similar support among likely voters in the state, their backers are equally enthusiastic and committed to their choice,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Click Here for Complete October 3, 2012 Virginia NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s September survey in Virginia, Obama and Biden received the support of 49% of likely voters, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, compared with 44% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Two percent supported another candidate, and 5%, at the time, were undecided.

Key points:

Party ID. There is a wide partisan divide. Most Democrats who are likely to vote — 94% — support the president. This compares with 92% of Republicans likely to cast a ballot who are behind Romney. Looking at independent voters, 45% back Romney compared with 44% for Obama.
Enthusiasm. 62% of likely voters in Virginia are very enthusiastic about voting. When it comes to each candidate’s supporters, 66% of Romney’s backers are very enthusiastic about going to the polls while the same proportion of Obama’s supporters — 66% — expresses a similar level of enthusiasm.
Intensity of support. 85% of likely voters firmly support their candidate of choice. 13% are somewhat committed to their pick while 1% might change their mind before Election Day. One percent is unsure. Among Obama’s supporters, 84% of his backers who are likely to cast a ballot are strongly committed to him while 85% of Romney’s supporters say they will not waver in their commitment.
Gender. Among women who are likely to vote, Obama — 52% — leads Romney — 44%. Among men who are likely to cast a ballot, Romney has 48% to 45% for Obama.
Age. Among likely voters under 30, Obama has the support of 65% compared with 28% for Romney. The president — 55% — also outpaces Romney — 39% — among those 30 to 44. Among those 45 to 59, 54% are for Romney compared with 41% for Obama. Looking at likely voters 60 and older, 49% are behind Romney compared with 45% for Obama.

Among registered voters in Virginia, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 48% support the president while 45% back Romney. Just 1% is for another candidate, and 6% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (VA Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (VA Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (VA Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

52% View Obama Favorably…Divide Over Romney

A majority of likely voters in Virginia — 52% — have a positive impression of Obama. This compares with 44% who do not. Four percent are unsure.

Little has changed on this question. Last month, 53% of likely voters statewide had a favorable view of Obama. 43%, however, had an unfavorable one. Four percent, at the time, were unsure.

Romney has made few inroads in Virginia. Likely voters still divide about his image. While 45% think well of him, 47% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate. Eight percent are unsure.

In September, similar proportions held these views. 46% of likely voters in Virginia perceived Romney favorably while 45% did not. Nine percent were unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

What Do Voters Think of the Running Mates?

Among likely voters, 44% have a favorable view of Vice President Joe Biden while 45% have an unfavorable perception of him. 11% are unsure.

In the September NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll in Virginia, 47% thought well of Biden. 43%, however, did not. 10% were unsure.

When it comes to Paul Ryan’s favorability, 45% perceive him positively while 41% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 14% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In September, 44% of likely voters had a favorable impression of Ryan. 39% had an unfavorable one, and a notable 18% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Vice President Joe Biden Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Paul Ryan Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Obama and Romney Close on Economy…Obama with Advantage on Foreign Policy

46% of registered voters in Virginia say Romney will better handle the issue of the economy while 45% think Obama will. Nine percent are unsure. Likely voters also divide. 47% have more confidence in Romney’s ability to fix the nation’s economy compared with 46% who believe Obama is the better candidate to do so. Seven percent are unsure.

Last month, registered voters also divided. 45% of these voters said Obama was the better candidate on the economy compared with 44% who had the same impression of Romney. 11%, then, were unsure.

When it comes to foreign policy, 50% of registered voters think Obama is the candidate who is better prepared to deal with these issues. However, 41% believe Romney is. Nine percent are unsure. Again, likely voters have similar opinions. Among these voters, Obama — 51% — outpaces Romney — 41%. Eight percent are unsure.

Little has changed since September when 51% of registered voters thought Obama was stronger on foreign policy issues, and 38% perceived Romney to be. 11% were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (VA Likely Voters)

Obama Approval Rating at 48% in Virginia

Among registered voters in Virginia, 48% approve of how President Obama is doing his job. This compares with 45% who disapprove. Six percent are unsure.

Last month, 49% of registered voters applauded Mr. Obama’s job performance. 44% thought it was subpar, and 6% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Virginia (VA Registered Voters)

Majority Believes Nation’s Compass is Broken

53% of registered voters in Virginia think the nation is on the wrong course. This compares with 42% who say it is on the proper path. Five percent are unsure.

This is unchanged from a similar NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll conducted last month. In September, 52% said the country was off track. 42% thought its trajectory was on the mark, and 6% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (VA Registered Voters)

Kaine Edges Allen by 5 Percentage Points in U.S. Senate Race

In Virginia’s U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine has the support of 49% of likely voters in the state, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot. This compares with 44% for Republican George Allen. Seven percent are undecided.

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question in September, likely voters divided. 46% backed Kaine while the same proportion — 46% — supported Allen. Eight percent, then, were undecided.

Among registered voters in Virginia, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 48% are for Kaine compared with 44% for Allen. Eight percent are undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Virginia: Kaine/Allen (VA Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Virginia: Kaine/Allen (VA Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Click Here for Complete September 13, 2012 Virginia NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Tags: Allen, Biden, Kaine, Obama, presidential election, Romney, Ryan, Virginia

9/13: Obama Up Five Points Over Romney in Virginia

September 13, 2012 by Marist Poll
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

11 Comments

Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate in Virginia, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive the support of 49% of voters compared with 44% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Two percent support another candidate, and 5% are undecided.

“Obama carried Virginia in 2008 breaking the streak of ten consecutive presidential wins for the GOP,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “No wonder both campaigns are battling in Virginia this time.”

Click Here for Complete September 13, 2012 Virginia NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

Party ID. 96% of Democrats likely to vote are behind the president while 94% of Republicans back Romney. Among those all-important independent voters, there is a divide. 45% rally for Romney while 43% throw their support behind Obama.
Enthusiasm. 60% of likely voters in Virginia are very enthusiastic about voting. Supporters for both candidates express similar degrees of enthusiasm. 64% of Mitt Romney’s backers and 63% of likely voters who are behind President Obama are very enthusiastic about November’s election.
Intensity of support. When it comes to the intensity of support likely voters have for the candidate of their choice, 84% report they stand strongly behind their presidential pick. 13% say they are somewhat committed to their selection, and only 2% believe they might cast their ballot differently. One percent is unsure. Among Obama’s supporters likely to cast a ballot, 87% think they will not waver. This compares with 80% of Romney’s backers who say they strongly support Romney.
Gender. Obama — 54% — outpaces Romney — 40% — among women likely to vote. However, among men who are likely to cast a ballot, Romney — 49% — has the advantage over Obama — 44%.
Age. Obama — 57% — has the backing of likely voters under the age of 30. Among those 30 to 44, Obama — 52% — also leads Romney — 40%. The race divides among those over 45. Voters between 45 and 59 split, 47% for Obama and 47% for Romney. 48% of voters 60 and older support Romney compared with 46% who back Obama.

How do Obama and Romney fare among registered voters in Virginia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate? 49% support the president compared with 42% who back Romney. Two percent favor another candidate, and 6% are undecided.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in May, 48% of registered voters including those leaning toward a candidate were for the president. 44% were behind Romney. Only 1% said they supported someone else. Seven percent were undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (VA Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (VA Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (VA Registered Voters with Leaners)

Majority Views Obama Favorably…Divide Over Romney

Looking at the candidates’ favorability ratings, 53% of likely voters have a positive impression of the president. 43% have an unfavorable one, and 4% are unsure.

Regarding Romney, 46% of likely voters perceive him favorably while 45% do not. Nine percent are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

What about the Veeps?

47% of likely voters have a favorable view of Vice President Joe Biden. 43% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 10% are unsure.

How does Paul Ryan fare? 44% of voters think well of him while 39% have a less favorable opinion of him. Nearly one in five likely voters — 18% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Vice President Joe Biden Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Paul Ryan Favorability (VA Likely Voters)

Voters Divide Over Stronger Candidate on Economy…Obama Bests Romney on Foreign Policy

Which candidate do registered voters in Virginia see as the one who will better handle the economy? 45% believe Obama will better handle the issue while 44% say Romney will. 11% are unsure. Likely voters have a similar perception. 45% see Obama as the candidate who can better turn the economy around while the same proportion — 45% — views Romney in this light. 10% are unsure.

In an NBC News/Marist Poll four months ago, 46% of registered voters believed the president was better equipped to handle the economy while 45% reported Romney was the better candidate for the job. Nine percent, then, were unsure.

When it comes to foreign policy, Obama — 51% — outshines Romney — 38%. 11% are unsure. Again, likely voters share this view. 50% believe Obama is better suited to direct foreign policy while 39% have this view of Romney. 10% are unsure.

In May, 52% of voters said Obama was the candidate who would better handle foreign policy compared with 37% who said the same about Romney. 10% were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (VA Likely Voters)

Nearly Half in Virginia Approve of President’s Job Performance

49% of registered voters in Virginia approve of how the president is doing his job. 44%, however, think his performance is subpar. Six percent are unsure.

Little has changed since NBC News/Marist’s May survey. At that time, 49% of voters thought highly of the president’s job performance. This compares with 45% who thought he fell short. Six percent were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Virginia (VA Registered Voters)

Nation Needs a New Path, Says 52%

A majority of registered voters in Virginia — 52% — think the country is moving in the wrong direction. 42%, however, believe it is traveling in the right one. Six percent are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s previous survey, nearly six in ten registered voters in Virginia — 58% — said the nation was off track. 38% believed it was on course, and 4% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (VA Registered Voters)

Kaine and Allen Tied in Race for U.S. Senate in Virginia

Democrat Tim Kaine — 46% — and Republican George Allen — 46% — are locked in a close contest among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate in the race for U.S. Senate in Virginia. Eight percent are undecided.

Among registered voters, Kaine receives 46% to 45% for Allen. Nine percent are undecided. In May, Kaine was ahead of Republican George Allen, 49% to 43%, among registered voters statewide. Nine percent, then, were undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Virginia: Kaine/Allen (VA Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Virginia: Kaine/Allen (VA Registered Voters)

Click Here for Complete May 24, 2012 Virginia NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Tags: Allen, Biden, Kaine, Obama, presidential election, Romney, Ryan, Virginia

5/24: Obama and Romney Locked in Tight Contest in Virginia

May 24, 2012 by Marist Poll
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/Marist Poll

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In the battle for the White House in Virginia, President Barack Obama edges Republican Mitt Romney by four percentage points among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Obama receives 48% of the vote to 44% for Romney. One percent backs another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

“Already targeted by both the Obama and Romney campaigns, Virginia could become the ultimate battleground state,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Obama carried the state by six percentage points in 2008, it is likely to go down to the wire this time.”

Click Here for Complete May 24, 2012 Virginia NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

There is a partisan divide. 90% of Democrats support President Obama while 89% of Republicans back Romney.
Among independent voters, Obama — 47% — has a slight edge over Romney — 41%.
Looking at voters with an excellent or good chance of voting in the fall election, Obama — 48% — and Romney — 45% — are competitive.
When it comes to enthusiasm, a majority of those with a high level of enthusiasm about the presidential election — 52% — are for Obama compared with 45% for Romney. Among those who are moderately enthusiastic, 47% back Obama while 45% support Romney. Both Obama and Romney receive 41% among those who express a low level of enthusiasm.
The president — 47% — and Romney — 47% — are in a dead heat among those who express a high level of interest in the presidential election. Obama — 48% — opens up a lead against Romney — 43% — among those who have a moderate level of interest in the contest. A majority of those who express a low interest — 53% — back Mr. Obama while 31% are behind Mr. Romney.
Almost six in ten of those who strongly support their choice of candidate – 58% — back President Obama while 42% are for Romney.
There is a gender gap. Romney — 47% — and Obama — 45% — are neck and neck among men. Obama — 51% — leads Romney — 41% — among women.
Looking at age, Obama — 60% — leads Romney — 33% — among registered voters including leaners who are under 30 years of age. The president — 50% — also outpaces Romney — 42% — among voters who are 30 to 44 years old. However, the race tightens among those 45 to 59. Here, Obama — 46% — and Romney — 43% — are competitive. Romney has 52% among those 60 and older compared with Obama who receives 43%.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (VA Registered Voters with Leaners)

More than Seven in Ten Firmly Behind Candidate

71% of registered voters in Virginia report they strongly support their choice of candidate while 22% are somewhat committed to their pick. Six percent might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.

Key points:

Nearly eight in ten registered voters who back President Obama — 79% — say they strongly support him. This compares with 62% of Romney’s backers who have a similar intensity of support.

Table: Intensity of Support (VA Registered Voters)

45% Very Enthusiastic About November’s Election

A plurality of registered voters in Virginia — 45% — say they are very enthusiastic about voting in this fall’s presidential election. 37% are somewhat enthusiastic while 13% are not too enthusiastic. Six percent are not enthusiastic at all.

Key points:

Nearly half of registered voters who back President Obama — 49% — have a high degree of enthusiasm about voting in November. This compares with 46% of Romney’s supporters who share this level of enthusiasm.

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (VA Registered Voters)

Veepstakes…McDonnell Does Little to Buoy Romney’s Chances

What if Mitt Romney were to select Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell as his running mate? There is little change. President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive 46% of registered voters’ support while Romney and McDonnell garner 44%. One percent says they will vote for someone else, and 9% are undecided.

Among registered voters in Virginia not including those who are leaning toward a candidate, Obama leads Romney, 46% to 42%. One percent is behind another candidate, and 11% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup with VPs: Obama/Biden against Romney/McDonnell (VA Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (VA Registered Voters)

Obama Approval Rating at 49% in Virginia

Almost half of registered voters in Virginia — 49% — approve of the job President Obama is doing in office. 45%, however, disapprove, and 6% are unsure.

There has been a slight increase in the proportion of voters who disapprove of the president’s job performance. When NBC News/Marist last reported this question among Virginia registered voters in March, 51% gave the president high marks while 39% disapproved of how he was performing in office. 10%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Virginia (VA Registered Voters)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

While a majority of registered voters in Virginia have a positive impression of President Obama, fewer have a favorable view of Governor Romney. 52% of voters think well of the president while 44% have a less than favorable opinion of him. Four percent are unsure.

Looking at Romney, 44% have an unfavorable impression of him while 41% have a favorable one. 15% are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (VA Registered Voters)

Position on Same-Sex Marriage Has Little Impact on Vote, Says Plurality

Nearly one in three registered voters in Virginia — 32% — say they are more likely to vote for Mitt Romney because he opposes same-sex marriage while one in four — 25% — reports they are more likely to support President Obama because he supports same-sex marriage. However, a notable 41% think a candidate’s stance on the issue does not make much difference to their vote. Only 2% are undecided.

Table: Impact of Candidate’s Stance on Same-Sex Marriage (VA Registered Voters)

Economy Trumps Social Issues

When it comes to the factor that is more important in deciding their vote, 72% of registered voters in Virginia choose the economy. 22%, however, believe social issues are more important, and 6% are undecided.

Virginia voters divide about whether President Obama — 46% — or Governor Romney — 45% — is better equipped to handle the economy. Nine percent are unsure.

Nearly half of registered voters in the state — 48% — believe Mr. Obama comes closer to their views on social issues. 43%, though, think Mr. Romney better reflects their positions on these issues while 9% are unsure.

On other issues:

President Obama is viewed by a majority of registered voters — 52% — as the candidate who will do a better job handling foreign policy. 37% have this opinion of Mr. Romney, and 10% are unsure.
Half of registered voters in Virginia — 50% — think Romney will do a better job reducing the national debt while 40% have this view of President Obama. 10% are unsure.
53% of registered voters perceive President Obama to be the candidate who best understands voters’ problems. 36%, however, say Romney is the more relatable candidate, and 11% are unsure.

Table: Which is More Important When Deciding Your Vote, the Economy or Social Issues (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who More Closely Reflects Views on Social Issues (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Reducing the National Debt (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Best Understands Voters’ Problems (VA Registered Voters)

Nearly Six in Ten Say Prez Inherited Economic Conditions, Majority Says Worst is Over

57% of registered voters in Virginia believe President Obama mostly inherited the nation’s current economic conditions while 36% say they are mostly a result of his own policies. Seven percent are unsure.

When thinking about the U.S. economy, overall, 55% think the worst of the country’s economic woes are over while 37% say the worst is yet to come. Eight percent are unsure. There has been little change on this question since March when 53% said the worst was behind us, 39% thought there was more bad economic news on the horizon, and 8% were unsure.

A plurality of voters expect the nation’s economy to remain steady in the next 12 months. While 34% say the economy will improve and 16% report it will get worse, 45% think it will stay about the same. Five percent are unsure. In March, 38% believed the economy would get better, 19% thought it would deteriorate, and 40% said it would remain about the same. Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Looking at their family finances, 34% of registered voters in Virginia say they expect their personal financial situation to get better in the next year. 10%, however, believe it will get worse while a majority — 55% — thinks it will be status quo.

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited (VA Registered Voters)

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse? (VA Registered Voters)

Table: The U.S. Economy in the Next Year (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year (VA Registered Voters)

Almost Six in Ten Think Nation Needs a Course Correction

58% of registered voters in Virginia think things in the nation are off on the wrong track. 38% believe they are headed in the right direction, and 4% are unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of Virginia voters who say things are off course. When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in March, 49% reported the nation needed to get back on track while 44% thought things were copasetic. Seven percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (VA Registered Voters)

Kaine-Allen Senate Race Competitive

In the race for U.S. Senate in Virginia, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen, 49% to 43%, among registered voters statewide. Nine percent are undecided.

In March, 48% backed Kaine, 39% were for Allen, and 14% were undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Virginia: Kaine/Allen (VA Registered Voters)

Click Here for Complete March 4, 2012 Virginia NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Tags: Battleground state, Obama, Romney, Virginia

3/4: Romney with Wide Lead over Paul in Virginia

March 4, 2012 by Marist Poll
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/Marist Poll

2 Comments

In Virginia, Mitt Romney outdistances his only ballot opponent, Ron Paul, by 43 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee in the state.

Here is how the contest stands:

69% for Mitt Romney
26% for Ron Paul
6% are undecided

“Although Romney is expected to win Virginia and win it big, voters remain lukewarm to him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “If all four GOP candidates were on the Virginia ballot, it would be a different political landscape.”

Click Here for Complete March 4, 2012 Virginia NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

Just 42% are firmly behind their pick while 40% are somewhat committed to him. 17% might change their mind, and 2% are unsure.
43% of Romney’s supporters strongly support him compared with 37% of Paul’s backers who say the same about him.
Romney leads Paul among all key voting groups.

Table: 2012 Virginia Republican Presidential Primary (VA Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentees)

Table: 2012 Virginia Republican Presidential Primary with Santorum and Gingrich (VA Likely Voters)

The Big “If,” Four-Way Contest More Competitive

If Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were on the ballot in Virginia, Romney would have the support of 36% of likely Republican primary voters compared with 28% for Santorum. Gingrich would garner 15%, and Paul would receive 13%. Eight percent are undecided.

Key points:

60% of likely Republican primary voters in Virginia think it’s more important to have a nominee who can defeat Obama in the general election while 34% say a candidate who is a true conservative is the most important.
Romney is the candidate perceived by 65% of likely Republican primary voters in Virginia to have the best electoral chances against President Obama.
36% think Santorum is the true conservative in the race.
78% of likely Republican primary voters in Virginia believe Romney will be the inevitable nominee.
26% believe Santorum is the candidate who best understands voters’ problems. Romney receives 25% compared with 20% for Paul, and 15% for Gingrich.
Romney is the candidate who is viewed as the most acceptable nominee. 58% of likely Republican primary voters in Virginia have this opinion. An additional 29% agree but with reservations. 11% say he is an unacceptable pick.
Looking at Santorum’s acceptability, 49% think he is a good fit for the role while 27% say he is acceptable, but they have hesitations. 20% believe he is not a good choice.
Gingrich is less acceptable. 35% report Gingrich is acceptable as the top of the GOP ticket while 31% say the same but with reservations. 32% think he is an unacceptable candidate for the nomination.
Paul is viewed as the least acceptable. Just 29% say he is a satisfactory choice for the Republican nomination while 29% think he will do, but they have concerns. Four in ten — 40% — report Paul is not a proper fit for the role.

Table: Which is More Important, a Candidate Who is a True Conservative or One Who Can Beat President Obama? (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Can Beat President Barack Obama (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Considered True Conservative (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Regardless of Support, Candidate Expected to Win Republican Nomination (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Best Understands Voters’ Problems (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Romney (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Santorum (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Gingrich (VA Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Paul (VA Likely Voters)

Electability Key Candidate Quality

33% of likely Republican primary voters in Virginia want a candidate who can defeat President Barack Obama in the fall. 26% say someone who is close to them on the issues tops their list of candidate qualities while 21% say shared values is the key. 18% favor a candidate with experience, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (VA Likely Voters)

Half Not Satisfied with GOP Field

Just 47% of likely Republican primary voters in Virginia are satisfied with the four GOP candidates seeking the presidency. 50% would like to see someone else run, and 3% are unsure.

Table: Satisfaction with Field of GOP Candidates (VA Likely Voters)

Majority Thinks Mormons are Christians

56% of likely Republican primary voters in Virginia say a Mormon is a Christian. However, 44% believe a Mormon is not a Christian or are unsure.

Table: Are Mormons Christian? (VA Likely Voters)

Obama Leads GOP Field by Wide Margins…Independents Desert GOP

How does the field of Republican candidates fare against President Obama in the general election?

Among Virginia’s registered voters:

Obama receives 52% to 35% for Romney. 12% are undecided.
53% favor Obama compared with 32% for Paul. 15% are undecided.
Obama has a 22 percentage point lead against Santorum. Here, Obama garners 54% to 32% for Santorum. 15% are undecided.
Obama — 57% — leads Gingrich – 31%. 13% are undecided.

In each of these hypothetical contests, Obama leads his potential GOP challengers among independents by double digits.

“President Obama is getting now what he got in Virginia four years ago,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The Republican primary battle is clearly taking its toll on the GOP candidates. They are losing the fight for independent voters.”

There has been a shift in party identification from a similar poll conducted in October 2008. At that time, 34% of registered voters considered themselves to be Democrats, 28% identified as Republicans, and 38% called themselves independents. Now, those proportions are 36% Democrat, 24% Republican, and 39% independent.

When considering the race among those who said they voted in 2008, there is little change in the contest between Obama and his GOP contenders. When looking at participation in 2010, the matchups narrow slightly.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (VA Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Paul (VA Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Santorum (VA Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Gingrich (VA Registered Voters)

McDonnell Little Help as VP Pick… Popular as Governor

What if Romney were to receive the nomination and bring Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell on as his running mate? Obama and Vice President Joe Biden outpace Romney and McDonnell, 51% to 36% with 13% undecided.

If Santorum were to team up with McDonnell, Obama and Biden are still ahead, 51% to 34%, with 14% undecided.

However, Governor McDonnell is viewed positively by a majority of registered voters in Virginia. 51% approve of his job performance while 30% disapprove. 19% are unsure.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Biden against Romney/McDonnell (VA Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Biden against Santorum/McDonnell (VA Registered Voters)

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell’s Approval Rating (VA Registered Voters)

Obama Job Approval Rating at 51%

When it comes to President Obama’s job approval rating in Virginia, 51% of registered voters in the state give the president high marks while 39% disapprove of his performance. 10% are unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Virginia (VA Registered Voters)

Virginia Voters Optimistic about the Future of the U.S. Economy

When thinking about the future of the U.S. economy, a majority of registered voters in Virginia — 53% — think the worst is over while 39% say the worst is still ahead. Eight percent are unsure.

How do Virginia voters think the U.S. economy will fare in the coming year? 38% believe it will get better while 19% say it will get worse. 40% report it will remain about the same, and 3% are unsure.

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse? (VA Registered Voters)

Table: The U.S. Economy in the Next Year (VA Registered Voters)

Nearly Half Believe the Nation Moving in the Wrong Direction

When it comes to the nation’s trajectory, 49% of registered voters in Virginia say things are off on the wrong track while 44% believe the country is moving in the right direction. Seven percent are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (VA Registered Voters)

Kaine Leads Allen in Senate Contest

In the race for U.S. Senate in Virginia, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen. In this hypothetical race, 48% back Kaine compared with 39% for Allen. 14% are undecided.

Looking at voters who say they participated in the 2008 election, Kaine receives 48% to Allen’s 40%. But, if turnout resembles 2010, Kaine garners 49% to Allen’s 43%.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical U.S. Senate Tossup in Virginia: Kaine/Allen (VA Registered Voters)