Speculation of a presidential candidacy by businessman Donald Trump runs high. But, do New York State voters want “The Donald” to announce his candidacy? Most voters do not want Mr. Trump to seek the presidency. Three in four voters — 75% — hold this view while 24% want Trump to become a candidate. Only 2% are unsure.
Most Democrats — 82% — and non-enrolled voters — 74% — do not want Trump to throw his proverbial hat into the ring. About two-thirds of Republicans — 66% — also agree.
“Donald Trump hasn’t crossed the threshold of credibility with New York State voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “He’s slightly less of a turn-off to Republicans. But even among GOPers, about two-thirds don’t want him to run.”
Trump isn’t the only local who New York voters hope will abstain from seeking the presidency. 76% of voters statewide do not want former New York State Governor George Pataki to challenge President Obama in 2012. 19% would like to see him make a bid for the office, and 5% are unsure.
New York State voters also aren’t pressing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run for president in 2012. About two-thirds — 66% — think Christie should sit along the presidential sidelines while 17% believe he should join the contest. 17% are unsure.
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg does not fare much better. 64% of New York State voters want Bloomberg to stay off the national presidential stage while 28% want him to step into the spotlight. Eight percent are unsure.
It’s a similar story for Bloomberg’s predecessor, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. 60% of voters believe Giuliani’s 2008 presidential run was enough while 37% want “America’s Mayor” to give a presidential run another go around. Three percent are unsure.
Although a majority of New York Republicans do not want Pataki, Christie, and Bloomberg to run, they divide about a bid by Giuliani.
Table: Donald Trump 2012 Presidential Run
Table: George Pataki 2012 Presidential Run
Table: Chris Christie 2012 Presidential Run
Table: Michael Bloomberg 2012 Presidential Run
Table: Rudy Giuliani 2012 Presidential Run
New York’s Favorite Son Rules Republican Roost Statewide
The field of possible 2012 Republican presidential candidates is wide. But, given the choice, about one in four New York State Republican voters — 23% — report they would back former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and one in five — 20% — say they would support former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Here is how the field stands among these Republican voters:
- 23% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
- 20% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
- 12% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
- 10% for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
- 7% for Businessman Donald Trump
- 7% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
- 3% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
- 2% for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
- 2% for Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels
- 2% for Businessman Herman Cain
- 1% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
- 1% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
- Fewer than 1% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
- Fewer than 1% for former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
- 10% are undecided
Most registered voters in New York State do not want former Governor George Pataki to make a presidential bid in 2012. 71% have this opinion while 23% would like to see Pataki battle it out for the presidency. 6% are unsure.
Most Democratic voters — 80% — do not want Pataki to run. Even 60% of Republicans and nearly seven in ten non-enrolled voters — 69% — also believe a 2012 Pataki presidential run is not a good idea.
But, voters do bestow a distinct honor upon Pataki. He is viewed by 33% of the New York electorate as the governor who has been the best for the state in recent decades. Pataki narrowly edges out Mario Cuomo who received high praise from 31% of registered voters. Nelson Rockefeller comes in a distant third with 12%. Eliot Spitzer garners kudos from 9% of the electorate and beats out Hugh Carey’s 4% and David Paterson’s 3%. No one chose Malcolm Wilson. 8% of voters are unsure.
Partisan politics are alive and well on this question. Among Republicans, Pataki takes the top spot with 49%. Among Democrats, however, Cuomo is number one with 40%. Non-enrolled voters divide between Pataki and Cuomo who each receive 34%.
If the Obama Administration is concerned about the 2010 elections in New York State, perhaps, there is good reason. In a Marist Poll earlier this month, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s approval rating was 26% with more than a quarter of registered voters unsure how to rate her. When she is currently pitted against former Republican New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in a hypothetical matchup for U.S. Senate, Gillibrand has some ground to gain. If the election were held today, Giuliani would win a slim majority of the electorate — 51% — to Gillibrand’s 40%.
While support does divide along party lines, nearly three in ten Democrats say they would support Republican challenger Giuliani. Currently, 62% of Democrats would back Gillibrand while 29% would support Giuliani. On the Republican side, 80% are behind Giuliani compared with 13% for Gillibrand. By a two-to-one margin, non-enrolled voters support Giuliani, 60% to Gillibrand’s 30%.
The picture for Gillibrand is somewhat, although not much, better when she faces off against former New York State Governor George Pataki. Pataki edges Gillibrand 45% to 41% among registered voters in New York State. In a Marist Poll earlier in September, Pataki received 48% of the electorate to Gillibrand’s 44%.
The parties break in support of their respective candidates. Among non-enrolled voters, Pataki is leading Gillibrand, but a notable proportion is undecided. 48% of these voters say they would support Pataki if the race were held today while 32% would back Gillibrand. 20% are unsure.
The good news for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is more voters in New York are familiar with what she is doing in the U.S. Senate. The bad news, however, is that it all doesn’t translate into a higher job approval rating.
26% of the statewide electorate view Gillibrand as doing an excellent or good job in office, and 9% believe she is performing poorly. 27% are not sure how to rate her. In Marist’s July survey, a similar proportion — 24% — gave Gillibrand a thumbs-up, 13% thought she was doing poorly in office, and 33% weren’t quite sure how to answer the question. This adds up to a bump in Gillibrand’s fair rating since July.
Gillibrand Loses Edge Against Pataki in Hypothetical Matchup
Time is ticking away to next year’s election for U.S. Senate in New York. And, there could be some cause for concern for Senator Gillibrand’s camp. When pitted against former New York Governor George Pataki, Pataki edges Gillibrand 48% to 44%. The tides have turned against Gillibrand over the last couple of months. In July, Gillibrand had 46% to Pataki’s 42%.
While Gillibrand maintains a similar degree of support among Democrats, more Republicans and non-enrolled voters have thrown their support behind Pataki. Currently, 71% of the GOP say they would vote for Pataki while 21% would back Gillibrand. In July, 63% reported they would support Pataki. 27% would do the same for Gillibrand. Looking at non-enrolled voters, half are behind Pataki while 42% support Gillibrand. Two months ago, they were divided, 45% for Gillibrand and 42% for Pataki.
The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff discusses Gillibrand’s approval rating:
Hers was an atypical ascent to the Senate, and U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has a long way to go to convince New Yorkers that she belongs there. The proportion of New York voters who say Senator Gillibrand is doing an excellent or good job in office is virtually unchanged since The Marist Poll’s March survey. 19% of voters today think she is doing an above average job. And, more voters have formed an opinion of Gillibrand. While half of voters back in March reported they weren’t quite sure how Gillibrand was doing, fewer — 43% — feel that way now. However, there’s a rub. More New York voters — 10% — currently view Gillibrand as doing a subpar job compared with two months ago when 5% shared that view.
Gillibrand Losing Ground in 2010 U.S. Senate Race
What are Senator Gillibrand’s chances for election to the U.S. Senate in 2010? In a hypothetical matchup against former New York State Governor George Pataki, Gillibrand trails Pataki, 38% to 46%. Gillibrand has lost ground to the former governor. In Marist’s March survey, Gillibrand led Pataki 45% to 41%. Although still in the lead, Gillibrand has also lost support in a hypothetical pairing against U.S. Representative Peter King. Currently, 42% of voters say they would back Gillibrand while 31% report they would vote for King. 27% are unsure. However, in March, Gillibrand led King 49% to 28% with 23% reporting they were uncertain about whom they would support.
U.S. Senate in 2010: No Clear Democrat…Pataki Over King Among GOP
To make it to the big dance, Gillibrand must first win her party’s nomination. So, what are the chances of that happening? When pitted against U.S. Representative Carolyn Maloney in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, it’s an open contest. Gillibrand edges Maloney. She receives 36% of New York Democrats compared with Maloney’s 31%. However, a large proportion of the party — 33% — are unsure. What about the Republican competition? As it stands right now, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010 would be George Pataki. He would defeat Peter King 48% to 36% among New York Republicans. Pataki’s lead has shrunk, however. Back in Marist’s March survey, Republican voters handed Pataki the hypothetical victory with 56% of the vote while King garnered 32%.