9/21: Nearly Half Plan to Vote Against Obama, But Is There a Winner in the GOP Field?

President Barack Obama has his work cut out for him on the campaign trail.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, 49% of registered voters nationally say they definitely plan to vote against the president in next year’s election.  36% say they will cast their ballot for Mr. Obama, and 15% are unsure.  This is the highest proportion of voters since November 2010 who say they don’t think they will back the president in his re-election bid.  At that time, 48% said they would definitely vote against him.

President Barack Obama

whitehouse.gov

Click Here for Complete September 21, 2011 USA McClatchy Poll Release and Tables

When McClatchy-Marist previously reported this question in August, 40% thought they would definitely vote against President Obama, 40% believed they would definitely vote for him, and a notable one in five — 20% — were unsure.

“On the one hand, President Obama’s re-election numbers are very low.  On the other hand, no GOP potential opponent has stepped up to the plate and demonstrated sufficient electoral power to beat him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

By party:

  • A majority of independent voters — 53% — say they will not support the president, 28% believe they will, and 20% are unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of independents who say they definitely will not vote for Mr. Obama.  In August, those proportions stood at 40%, 35%, and 25%, respectively.
  • Most Republicans — 89% — plan to back someone else.  Last month, 77% reported the same.
  • Little has changed among Democrats.  70% say they will cast their ballot for the president while 69% shared these views in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.

There has also been an increase in the proportion of registered voters who believe, regardless of who they support, the Republican challenger will defeat President Obama in next year’s election.  A majority of the national electorate — 52% — says the GOP candidate will be victorious, 38% believe the president will be re-elected, and one in ten — 10% — is undecided.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in June, voters divided.  44% said Mr. Obama will be re-elected to another four years in office while 42% reported the Republican candidate will claim the White House.  15%, at that time, were undecided.

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012 (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Presidential Prediction

Guiliani Strongest GOPer Against Obama

Despite weak re-election numbers, President Obama either leads or is competitive with most of his Republican challengers.  There is one exception, unannounced candidate former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

  • Giuliani receives 49% to Obama’s 42% among registered voters.  Nine percent are undecided.  In August, 48% backed the president, 43% supported Giuliani, and 9% were undecided.

Key points:

o   A slim majority of independent voters — 51% — supports Giuliani while only 37% throw their support behind Obama.  13% are undecided.

  • President Obama is neck and neck with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  46% say they are for Obama while 44% report they back Romney.  One in ten — 10% — is undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 46% supported Obama, 41% tossed their support behind Romney, and 13%, at the time, were undecided.

Key points:

o   Among independent voters, 44% are behind Romney, 40% back the president, and 16% are undecided.  In August, the president received the support of 41% of independents to Romney’s 35%.  23% were undecided.

  • When up against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, 49% of voters say they are for Obama while 44% rally for the unannounced Palin.  Six percent are undecided.  However, this is the first time that Obama has fallen below 50% in this hypothetical scenario.  And, the president has lost ground since the last time McClatchy-Marist reported this question.  In August, a majority — 56% — tossed their support behind Obama while 35% backed Palin.  Nine percent, at the time, were undecided.

Key points:

o   Among independent voters, 47% tout Palin while 43% are behind Obama.  In August, 48% backed the president while 42% were for Palin.

o   Palin has gained some support within her Republican base.  81% now say they are for Palin compared with 60% last month.

o   87% of voters who support the Tea Party rally behind Palin compared with 70% last month.

  • Obama’s lead over Texas Governor Rick Perry has shrunk.  50% of voters support Obama while 41% are for Perry, a nine percentage point lead for the president.  Nine percent are undecided.  Last month, Obama outpaced Perry by 19 percentage points, 52% to 33%.  14% were undecided.

Key points:

o   Perry has made some in-roads with independent voters.  They now divide.  43% support Obama, and 43% are behind Perry.  13% are undecided.  In August, 49% of independents backed Obama and 30% supported Perry.  22% were undecided.

o   Perry has also gained the support of more Republicans.  87% now support him compared with 74% last month.

o   84% of Tea Party supporters are for Perry.  69% had this view in August.

  • 53% of voters support Obama while 40% are for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.  Seven percent are undecided.  Similar proportions shared these views in August when Obama garnered the support of 52%.  35% were for Bachmann, and 13% were undecided.

Key points:

o   Bachmann has gained some ground within her Republican base.  86% now back her while 73% did so in August.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann (Over Time)

Perry Leads Republican Contenders

In the quest for the Republican nomination, Texas Governor Rick Perry has an eight percentage point advantage over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 30% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
  • 22% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
  • 12% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
  • 7% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
  • 6% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
  • 5% for businessman Herman Cain
  • 2% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
  • 1% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
  • 15% are undecided

But, how firmly are Republicans and Republican leaning independents in their candidates’ camp?  Three in ten — 30% — report they strongly support their choice of candidate, nearly four in ten — 39% — say they somewhat support their candidate, and 31% think they might vote differently.

The top two candidates — Rick Perry and Mitt Romney — share similar intensity of support from their backers.  30% of GOP voters who back Perry firmly support him while 26% of those who are behind Romney say the same.

The story changes for the Republican field when two prominent Republicans come into play.  If Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin were to announce their candidacies, here is how the contest stands among Republicans and Republican leaning independents:

  • 20% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
  • 14% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
  • 13% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
  • 13% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
  • 6% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
  • 6% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
  • 6% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
  • 4% for businessman Herman Cain
  • 2% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
  • 2% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
  • 14% are undecided

However, 72% of Republicans and Republican leaning independent voters do not want Palin to seek the office, 24% do, and 4% are unsure.

Giuliani fares somewhat better, but nearly six in ten — 58% — do not want him to enter the race either.  32% would like to see him step back onto the national stage, and 10% are unsure.

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Table: Intensity of Support

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary (with Giuliani and Palin)

Table: Sarah Palin 2012 Presidential Run

Table: Rudy Giuliani 2012 Presidential Run

Shared Values Tops List of Candidates’ Qualities

More than one-third of Republicans and Republican leaning independents — 35% — say it’s most important that a Republican presidential candidate share their values.  26% want a candidate who has the experience to govern, and 20% prefer a candidate who is closest to them on the issues.  The ability to defeat President Obama is most important to 17%, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate

Candidates’ Tea Party Backing Not Top of Mind for Seven in Ten Republicans

How important is it that a Republican candidate has the support of the Tea Party?  70% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents report it makes no difference to their vote.  More than one in five — 22% — say it makes them more likely to vote for a candidate while only 8% think it makes them less likely to vote for a candidate.

The proportion of registered voters who are Tea Party supporters has changed little.  27% either strongly support or support the Tea Party while 64% do not.  Among those that support the Tea Party, 8% strongly support the movement, and 19% support it.  Nine percent are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 29% supported the Tea Party movement, 61% did not, and 9% were unsure.

Table: Importance of Tea Party Backing of Republican Presidential Candidate

Table: Tea Party Supporters

Table: Tea Party Supporters Over Time

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

9/7: GOP Debate or Battle Royal?

September 7, 2011 by  
Filed under Election Blogs, Featured, Lee Miringoff

Expect Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment of GOP politics to be broken as the large field of Republican presidential wannabes meet in three debates during the next three weeks.  And, with good reason.

caricature of Lee MiringoffSo far, it’s been a race that has probably attracted at least as much attention for those who have chosen not to run (Huckabee, Daniels, Barbour, Pataki), those who have already ended their candidacy (Pawlenty), and those who have yet not declared their intentions (Palin, Giuliani) as it has for those who are traipsing around Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

The oddity about this GOP contest is how ill-formed it is as we head into heavy campaign season.  (Don’t totally blame the candidates here as the dates for Iowa and New Hampshire haven’t been set, yet).

The so-called top tier consists of  recently anointed front-runner Rick Perry, who is yet to demonstrate anything beyond the ability to get out of the gate fast; Mitt Romney, the early but weak front-runner who now occupies the place position behind Perry; and Michele Bachmann (just barely) who gained an early advantage based upon her debating skills and narrow win in the Iowa straw poll but who now must find a way to re-energize her campaign.

The remaining candidates, perhaps led by Jon Huntsman, are searching for a spark that ignites their 15 news cycles of fame.  Meanwhile “undecided”  continues to be a popular choice among rank and file Republicans.

This all accounts for why the GOP field is sensing the “urgency of now.”  Coupled with the weakening strength of President Obama’s re-election prospects, the debates are likely to  undo the Reagan pledge.  I’m sure the campaign handlers will claim that their candidates are merely providing issue clarification.  But, no one will be fooled when the gloves  come off early and the punches start flying in the upcoming debate slugfests.

8/10: Obama’s Re-Election Prospects: Voters Divide

President Barack Obama asserts that change doesn’t occur overnight.  But, will registered voters nationwide give him the opportunity to fulfill his promise during a second term?  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, voters divide.  Four in ten — 40% — say they will definitely vote for the president next year while 40% think they will definitely vote against him.  A notable one in five — 20% — is unsure.

The White House

Click Here for Complete August 10th, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in June, 43% of registered voters thought they would definitely vote against President Obama while 36% said they would definitely vote for him.  21%, at the time, were unsure.

“Voters nationally continue to be mixed about President Obama’s re-election prospects,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The difference occurs when he is matched against specific GOP wannabes.  Here, he has the edge against a host of possible challengers.”

Although 40% of independent voters report they plan to vote against President Obama next year, more than one-third of independents — 35% — currently plan to vote for the president, and a notable 25% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, only 29% of independents thought they would back the president while 43% planned to vote for another candidate.  28%, at the time, were unsure.

There has been little change among Democrats.  69% report they will support President Obama, 14% will not, and 16% are unsure.  In June, those proportions stood at 70%, 10%, and 20%, respectively.  Among Republican voters nationally, 7% plan to vote for the president.   77% say they will cast their ballot for another candidate, and 16% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, only 4% of GOP voters reported Mr. Obama would receive their vote while 85% said they were not planning to back the president.  10%, then, were unsure.

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012 (Over Time)

Obama Leads GOP Challengers … Majority Support Against Bachmann, Perry, & Palin

Regardless of whether or not voters plan to cast their ballot for the president next year, Mr. Obama fares well against most potential Republican challengers.  In fact, the president has either majority support or his backing has remained consistent since McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey in June.

When paired against leading Republican challengers, here is how the contests stand:

  • President Obama receives 46% of registered voters’ support to 41% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  13% are undecided.  In June, 46% backed Obama while 42% rallied for Romney.  11%, at the time, were undecided.
  • When the president goes head-to-head with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 48% say they are for Obama while 43% are behind Giuliani.  Nine percent are undecided.  Little has changed on this question since June when 48% backed Obama, 41% touted Giuliani, and 12% were undecided.
  • President Obama has a 13 percentage point lead over former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.  Nearly half — 49% — support the president while 36% throw their support behind Pawlenty.  15% are undecided.  In June, 47% supported the president, about one-third — 33% — backed Pawlenty, and one in five — 20% — was undecided.
  • When matched against Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, the president receives majority support.  52% rally behind the president while 35% are in Bachmann’s corner.  13% are undecided.  A couple of months ago, 49% backed Obama, 37% were behind Bachmann, and 14% were undecided.
  • The president has a 19 percentage point lead over Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Here, 52% support the president, 33% are behind Perry, and 14% are undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 48% said they would vote for Obama while 39% reported they would cast their ballot for Perry.  13%, at the time, were undecided.
  • President Obama receives the greatest support when up against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  56% support the president while 35% are in Palin’s camp.  Nine percent are undecided.  In June, 56% gave their endorsement to Obama, 30% touted Palin, and 14% were undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Pawlenty

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)

Romney, Perry Lead Pack of GOP Contenders

Is there a likely Republican candidate to face-off against President Barack Obama in next year’s general election?  Although Mitt Romney and Rick Perry top the list of potential candidates, they each only receive support from about one in five Republican primary voters.

Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 21% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
  • 18% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
  • 10% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
  • 9% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
  • 8% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
  • 6% for businessman Herman Cain
  • 3% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
  • 3% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
  • 2% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
  • 2% for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
  • 2% for former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
  • 2% for former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer
  • 1% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
  • Less than 1% for Political Activist Fred Karger
  • 14% are undecided

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Previous Survey Results for the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

7/8: The GOP for 2012

What is particularly striking about our recent national poll on campaign 2012 is the lack of definition of the GOP field of White House wannabes.   Mitt Romney, the generally recognized front-runner, has the support of a mere 19% of Republican and Republican leaning independents.  Not exactly emulating Secretariat’s run in the Belmont Stakes.  Romney is trying to make President Obama’s handling of the economy the central issue of the campaign in the worst possible way.  With his latest flip-flop, it seems he’s doing just that.

caricature of Lee MiringoffThen, there’s the bench, the second tier in the poll numbers.  What stands out about this group — Giuliani, Perry, and Palin — is that none of them, as of yet, is an announced candidate.  Does one, two, or three eventually get in and what does that do to a changing line-up that has already lost Trump, Huckabee, Christie, Daniels, and Barbour, media grabbing would be candidates?

And, then there’s the long list of niche candidates none of whom breaks into double digits at this point.  Is there a possible future nominee or president among them?  Sure.  But, it’s a very long way for any of them before they earn the keys to the oval office.

Despite this cloudy GOP picture, President Obama should not be drafting his second inaugural address just yet.  His approval rating is mired in the mid-forties and he’s at his lowest point in how voters assess his handling of the economy.  The latest unemployment figures are not likely to ease anyone’s economic anguish.

Not surprisingly, his re-elect numbers are not impressive.  Only 36% say they will definitely vote to re-elect the President, and 42% opt for the so-called “generic” Republican.  Here’s the rub.  When you replace the “generic” GOPer with the name of a specific Republican, President Obama opens up an advantage.  He even breaks fifty against Palin.

No doubt, this is a narrative that is still unfolding.  But, I sense it’s likely to be the storyline for some time.

6/29: 2012, Obama, and the GOP

According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationally say they plan to vote against President Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election.  However, regardless of whom voters support, the national electorate divides about who they think will actually win.  Is there a Republican candidate who can mount a formidable challenge to the president?  In an evolving Republican field, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney receives the backing of only 19% of Republican and Republican leaning independent voters.  And, three of the top four vote getters for the Republican nomination are still on the sidelines.

election 2012 button

©istockphoto.com/pgangler

“All signs point to a competitive 2012 election cycle,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, which scenario ends up ruling the day is still anyone’s guess.”

Click Here for Complete June 29, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Second Term for Obama? 43% Plan to Vote Against President

Looking to 2012, 43% of registered voters nationwide report they plan to vote against President Obama in 2012.  This compares with 36% who say they definitely plan to support him.  A notable 21% are unsure.  Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in April. At that time, 44% reported they planned to back someone else while 37% said they planned to vote for the president.  18%, at the time, were unsure.

Independents play a key role in Obama’s re-election bid.  43% say they would vote against Mr. Obama in 2012 while 29% are securely in his corner.  Nearly three in ten independent voters — 28% — are unsure.  The president has failed to make inroads with these all-important voters.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 47% of independents reported they would not support the president while 32% said they would cast their ballot for Mr. Obama.  21% were unsure.

While 70% of Democratic voters report they will unequivocally cast their ballot for the president and only 10% say they will vote against him, a notable one in five — 20% — are unsure.  Not surprisingly, most Republicans — 85% — don’t plan on supporting the president while just 4% say they will.  One in ten — 10% — are unsure.

Regardless of whether registered voters plan to support the president or the Republican candidate in 2012, voters divide about who will win.  44% believe the president will be victorious while 42% say the Republican candidate will win.  15% are undecided.

Looking at party lines, 67% of Democrats think the president will retain the White House while 69% of Republicans believe their candidate will defeat him.  Independents divide.  44% think the Republican challenger will be sworn into office while 42% say the president will achieve a second term.

Table: Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Table: Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012  Over Time

Table: 2012 Presidential Prediction

Obama Receives Majority Support Against Palin … Plurality Lead Over Rest of Field

While President Obama either leads or runs neck-in-neck with many potential Republican challengers, there is only one candidate over whom the president receives majority support.  When up against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, 56% of registered voters say they would support the president while three in ten — 30% — would back Palin.  14% are undecided.  Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in April when 56% supported Obama, 34% were behind Palin, and 10% were undecided.

When the president is matched up against other leading Republican challengers, here is how the contests stand:

  • The closest contest occurs between President Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Here, 46% of registered voters nationally report they would cast their ballot for the president while 42% say they would cast their ballot for Romney11% are undecided.  Little has changed on this question since April.  At that time, 46% backed the president while 45% supported Romney.  Nine percent were unsure.
  • When paired against former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 48% of voters report they would vote for President Obama while 41% say they would cast their ballot for Giuliani12% are undecided.
  • When Mr. Obama goes head-to-head with Texas Governor Rick Perry, the president receives the backing of 48% of registered voters while Perry garners 39%13% are undecided.
  • Nearly half of registered voters — 49% — report they would cast their ballot for President Obama if he were to face off against Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.  In this potential contest, 37% say they would support Representative Bachmann.  14% are undecided.
  • When matched up against former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, the president has a 14 percentage point advantage.  President Obama receives the backing of 47% of registered voters while Pawlenty garners 33%.  A notable 20% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Pawlenty

Romney Edges Wide Field of Republican Primary Candidates

As the Republican field for 2012 evolves, is there a runaway favorite?  Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 19% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
  • 13% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
  • 13% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
  • 11% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
  • 8% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
  • 5% for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
  • 5% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
  • 5% for businessman Herman Cain
  • 2% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
  • 2% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
  • 1% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
  • Less than 1% for Political Activist Fred Karger
  • Less than 1% for former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
  • 15% are undecided

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Previous Survey Results for the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

What Matters to GOP Voters?

When it comes to the quality that is most important to Republicans and Republican leaning independents, 38% want a candidate who shares their values.  Nearly one in four — 24% — believe it’s most important that the Republican candidate is closest to them on the issues.  20% say they want a candidate who has the experience to govern, and 15% say the most important quality in a Republican presidential candidate is that he or she can beat President Obama.  Only 4% are unsure.

When it comes to Tea Party backing, 70% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents report that it makes no difference to their vote if a candidate is supported by the Tea Party movement.  However, 20% say the Tea Party endorsement will make them more likely to vote for a candidate while 10% report it will make them less likely to vote for a specific candidate.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Nominee

Table: Importance of Candidate’s Tea Party Backing

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

5/5: NYS Voters Say, “No,” to Candidate Trump

Speculation of a presidential candidacy by businessman Donald Trump runs high.   But, do New York State voters want “The Donald” to announce his candidacy?  Most voters do not want Mr. Trump to seek the presidency.  Three in four voters — 75% — hold this view while 24% want Trump to become a candidate.  Only 2% are unsure.

The White HouseClick Here for Complete May 5, 2011 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Most Democrats — 82% — and non-enrolled voters — 74% — do not want Trump to throw his proverbial hat into the ring.  About two-thirds of Republicans — 66% — also agree.

“Donald Trump hasn’t crossed the threshold of credibility with New York State voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He’s slightly less of a turn-off to Republicans.  But even among GOPers, about two-thirds don’t want him to run.”

Trump isn’t the only local who New York voters hope will abstain from seeking the presidency.  76% of voters statewide do not want former New York State Governor George Pataki to challenge President Obama in 2012.  19% would like to see him make a bid for the office, and 5% are unsure.

New York State voters also aren’t pressing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run for president in 2012.  About two-thirds — 66% — think Christie should sit along the presidential sidelines while 17% believe he should join the contest.  17% are unsure.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg does not fare much better.  64% of New York State voters want Bloomberg to stay off the national presidential stage while 28% want him to step into the spotlight.  Eight percent are unsure.

It’s a similar story for Bloomberg’s predecessor, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.  60% of voters believe Giuliani’s 2008 presidential run was enough while 37% want “America’s Mayor” to give a presidential run another go around.  Three percent are unsure.

Although a majority of New York Republicans do not want Pataki, Christie, and Bloomberg to run, they divide about a bid by Giuliani.

Table: Donald Trump 2012 Presidential Run
Table: George Pataki 2012 Presidential Run
Table: Chris Christie 2012 Presidential Run
Table: Michael Bloomberg 2012 Presidential Run
Table: Rudy Giuliani 2012 Presidential Run

New York’s Favorite Son Rules Republican Roost Statewide

The field of possible 2012 Republican presidential candidates is wide.  But, given the choice, about one in four New York State Republican voters — 23% — report they would back former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and one in five — 20% — say they would support former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Here is how the field stands among these Republican voters:

  • 23% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
  • 20% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
  • 12% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
  • 10% for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
  • 7% for Businessman Donald Trump
  • 7% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
  • 3% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
  • 2% for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
  • 2% for Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels
  • 2% for Businessman Herman Cain
  • 1% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
  • 1% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
  • Fewer than 1% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
  • Fewer than 1% for former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
  • 10% are undecided

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary (New York State)

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology

4/20: Campaign 2012: Obama’s Re-election Chances

President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationwide — 44% — say they definitely plan to vote against Mr. Obama in 2012.  37% report they definitely plan to vote for him, and 18% are unsure.

flag over white house

©istockphoto.com/narvikk

Click Here for Complete April 20, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Despite the president’s transition into campaign mode, little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last asked it in November.  At that time, 48% of voters said they will not support the president in his re-election bid while 36% thought they would.  16%, at the time, were unsure.

“The president is hoping lightning strikes in the same place twice,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If there is a silver lining for his re-election, it’s the lack of clarity in the GOP field.”

The president continues to struggle with those all-important independent voters.  47% of these voters say they don’t plan on casting their ballot for Obama while 32% do.  21% are unsure.  In the fall, half — 50% — believed they would back another candidate while three in ten — 30% — reported they would support the incumbent president.  20% were unsure.

Table: Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Romney and Huckabee Close the Gap with Obama… Palin and Trump Trail Far Behind

How do some of the most talked about potential GOP candidates fare against the president?  When given the choice between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the president, voters divide.  46% of registered voters say they would back the president while 45% say they would cast their ballot for Romney.  Nine percent are undecided.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in January, Mr. Obama had a 13 percentage point lead over Romney.  At that time, a slim majority — 51% — said they would vote for the president while 38% thought they would back Romney.  11% were undecided.

The president has lost ground among independent voters.  Currently a plurality — 45% — back Romney while 42% support Obama.  13% are undecided.  Previously, the president held a 10 percentage point lead over Romney.

When paired with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, President Obama has a slight lead.  48% of voters say they would support the president in this hypothetical contest while 43% believe they would back Huckabee.  Nine percent are undecided.  However, Huckabee has narrowed the gap.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 12 percentage points separated the two.  In January, half of voters — 50% — said Obama was their candidate while 38% said the same about Huckabee.  12% were undecided.

However, Obama outdistances former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  A majority — 56% — believe they will vote for Obama if Palin receives the Republican nomination.  34%, though, say they will cast their ballot for Palin.  One in ten — 10% — are undecided.  In January, the same proportion of voters — 56% — supported Obama while 30% backed Palin.  13%, at the time, were undecided.

And, there’s been much speculation about a presidential run by businessman Donald Trump.  Is he a strong contender when he’s toe-to-toe with President Obama?  In this contest, Obama garners a majority of voters — 54% — to 38% for Trump.  Eight percent are undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Huckabee
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Huckabee (Over Time)
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Trump

Romney, Huckabee Top Republican Field, But…

The list of Republican names tossed around as possible 2012 presidential candidates is long, but is there one among them who stands out?  Among Republican and Republican leaning independents, this is what the field looks like:

  • 18% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
  • 17% for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
  • 13% for businessman Donald Trump
  • 9% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
  • 8% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
  • 7% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
  • 4% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
  • 3% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
  • 2% for Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels
  • 2% for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
  • 2% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
  • 2% for businessman Herman Cain
  • 1% for Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour
  • 1% for former Utah Governor and current U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
  • 11% are undecided

Other notable findings:

  • Romney and Huckabee run evenly among Republicans with 19% each.
  • Huckabee is the favorite among Tea Party supporters with 20%.
  • Trump tops the list among Republican leaning independents with 18%.

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary
Previous Survey Results for the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

McClatchy-Marist Methodology

1/14: Expectations High for Second Half of Obama’s Term

Midway into his term, President Barack Obama may be finding his political sea legs.  According to this national McClatchy-Marist Poll, when asked about how the president will perform during his next two years in office, 61% of registered voters are optimistic, saying the president will do better than he did in the previous two years of his term.  About one in five voters — 21% — think he will do a worse job, and 5% believe he will perform about the same as he already has.  12% are unsure.

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Click Here for Complete January 14, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

A majority of independent voters — 55% — and even a plurality of Republican voters — 41% — think the president will make greater strides in his performance during the next two years than he has in the past two.  Not surprisingly, most Democrats — 85% — also expect the president to do better in the future.

“Looking ahead to the next two years, voters are once again hopeful about President Obama,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Also noteworthy, 35% of registered voters who disapprove of the president’s job performance think he will do better in the second half of his term than he did in the first two years.

Table: Obama’s Future Performance

Obama Approval Rating Rebounds

Voters’ positive attitude toward the president is reflected in his job approval rating.  48% of registered voters nationally approve of the job President Obama is doing in office while 43% disapprove.  Nine percent are unsure.  After declining to its lowest point at the end of 2010, the president’s approval rating is back up.  When McClatchy-Marist last asked about the president’s approval rating in December, Mr. Obama’s approval rating stood at 42%.  Half — 50% — disapproved, and 8% were unsure.

The president has improved his standing among independent voters.  Currently, members of this key voting group divide.  44% approve of the job the president is doing while the same proportion — 44% — disapprove.  11% are unsure.  This is a notable change from McClatchy-Marist’s December survey when only 39% of independents gave the president high marks, and a majority — 52% — shook their heads in disapproval.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.  The president’s base has also solidified.  84% of Democrats approve of Mr. Obama’s job performance while 9% disapprove.  Seven percent are unsure.  In December, those proportions stood at 74%, 21%, and 5%, respectively.  Among the national GOP, little has changed.  Nine percent approve of the president’s job performance, 83% disapprove, and 8% are unsure.  This compares with 7%, 87%, and 6%, respectively, who shared these views in December.

“President Obama is back on firmer footing politically,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”His Democratic base is more secure, and his improvement among independent voters is key.”

Mr. Obama’s support among women is also up.  A majority — 51% — now say the president is doing well in office compared with 44% in December.  Among men, 44% currently give the president a positive score compared with 39% last month.

Table: Obama Approval Rating
Table: Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

Trend graph: Obama approval rating.

Majority View Obama Favorably

Registered voters also have a more positive overall impression of the president.  A majority — 53% — report they have a favorable view of President Obama compared with 40% of those who say they have an unfavorable impression of him.  Eight percent are unsure.  Voters divided in McClatchy-Marist’s November 24th survey. Then, 47% had a favorable opinion of the president while 49% did not.  Four percent were unsure.

Independents make the difference here, as well.  A majority of these voters — 53% — have a positive view of Mr. Obama while 42% hold him in low esteem.  Five percent are unsure.  The president’s favorability rating has flipped among independents since late November.  At that time, a majority — 52% — perceived the president unfavorably while 44% saw him favorably.  Four percent were unsure.

Table: Obama Favorability
Table: Obama Favorability Over Time

Trend graph: Obama favorability.

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

 

Nation on the Straight and Narrow

President Obama is benefitting from a narrowing of the gap between Americans who think the country is moving in the wrong direction and those who think it is on the right course.  For the first time since December of 2009, a majority of Americans do not think the country is moving in the wrong direction.  Currently, 47% believe the country is traveling on the wrong path while 41% say it is on the right path, 12% are unsure.  When McClatchy-Marist last asked this question in December, nearly six in ten adults — 58% — believed the nation needed to be re-directed while 34% said it was on the proper course.  Eight percent were unsure.

Democrats are most positive.  66% believe the nation is moving in the right direction while 23% do not.  In December, those proportions stood at 56% and 37%, respectively.  Although a majority of independents still see the country as traveling on the wrong road, the proportion that share this view has declined.  Among independents, 40% currently say the nation is moving in the right direction compared with 51% who think it is on the wrong path.  In December, 32% said the nation was headed in the correct direction while 62% thought it needed a new compass.  More than seven in ten Republicans — 72% — think the country is moving in the wrong direction.  In December, 79% had this view.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country
Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Over Time)

Trend graph: Voters' opinions of whether country is going in right or wrong direction.

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Obama Leads Potential 2012 GOP Challengers

Looking ahead to 2012, when paired up against three prominent members of the GOP, Obama currently has the advantage.

First, when matched up against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Obama outpaces Palin by 26 percentage points.  Obama receives the support of a majority of voters — 56% — to Palin’s 30%.  13% are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last asked about this potential contest in December, Obama had a 12 percentage point lead over Palin, 52% to 40%, respectively, with 9% reporting they were undecided.

Among women, Obama has a 33 percentage point advantage over Palin.  Among this group of voters, the president receives 60% to Palin’s 27%.  In December, the president garnered the support of 50% of women to Palin’s 39%, an 11 percentage point difference.  Looking at men, Obama receives 52% to 35% for Palin.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 53% of men backed Obama while 40% supported Palin.

Obama also leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  A slim majority — 51% — back Obama compared with 38% for Romney.  11% are undecided.  In December, voters divided with 44% backing the president and 46% supporting Romney.  10% were undecided.

Independent voters make the difference in this hypothetical contest.  A plurality of independents — 47% — report they would back Obama while 37% support Romney.  16% are undecided.  Last month, Romney had the advantage among this group of voters.  At that time, 47% of independent voters were behind Romney while 39% said they supported Obama.  14% were undecided.

When matched up against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Obama also outpaces his GOP challenger.  Half of voters — 50% — support Obama while 38% rally for Huckabee.  12% are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last asked about this contest in December, Obama edged Huckabee with 47% for Obama and 43% throwing their support behind Huckabee.  11% were undecided.

Obama’s support has grown among women.  A majority — 52% — now support Obama compared with 36% for Huckabee.  12% are undecided.  Last month, women divided.  44% backed Obama while 43% touted Huckabee, and 12% were undecided.

This poll was conducted from Thursday, January 6th, 2011 through Monday, January 10th, 2011, including the Saturday when the tragic shooting occurred in Tucson, Arizona.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Huckabee
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Huckabee (Over Time)

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

Related Story from McClatchy:

Poll: Obama rebounding with voters, would beat GOP rivals, crush Palin

10/8: Obama Approval Rating at 43%, but Majority of Voters Confident in Obama’s Approach

October 8, 2010 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Half of registered voters nationwide — 50% — disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office while 43% approve.  Seven percent are unsure.

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Click Here for Complete October 8, 2010 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Results and Tables

Little has changed since the last national McClatchy-Marist survey.  In that September poll, the same proportion of the national electorate — 50% — disapproved of the president’s job performance while 45% approved.  Five percent were unsure.

“The battle lines are drawn for the midterm elections,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “President Obama’s approval rating is not a disaster, but it’s not high enough to be a battle cry for many of his fellow Democrats facing the 2010 electorate.”

Nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters — 74% — say they approve of the job the president is doing while 20% disapprove.  6% are unsure.  Last month, 81% of Democratic voters gave Obama a thumbs-up, 15% viewed his performance as subpar, and 4% were unsure

Across the aisle, 85% of Republicans disapprove of how the president is doing while 12% approve.  Three percent are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s September survey, a similar proportion of Republican voters — 82% — were dissatisfied with the president’s job performance, 13% approved, and 6% were unsure.

A majority of independent voters nationwide — 54% — still disapprove of the president’s job performance, 35% approve, and 11% are unsure.  Last month, a majority of these voters — 54% — disapproved, 40% approved, and 6% were unsure.

Despite the president’s 43% approval rating, a majority of voters — 51% — think the president’s approach will eventually solve the problems facing the nation.  But, he needs more time.  45% report Mr. Obama’s approach will not solve the nation’s problems.  Four percent are unsure.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide on this question as well.  81% of Democrats think the president’s approach needs more time while 15% say his efforts will be futile.  On the other hand, 76% of Republicans think the president’s approach will not fix America’s problems compared with 20% who say patience is in order.  A majority of independent voters — 54% — report the president’s approach will not fix the problems facing the nation while 42% think they will in time.

Table: Obama Approval Rating
Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

Trend graph: Obama approval rating

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Table: Obama’s Approach to Solving the Nation’s Problems

More Than Six in Ten View Economic Conditions as Inherited

Although more than six in ten voters — 61% — believe the president inherited the nation’s current economic conditions, about one-third — 33% — report they are a product of Mr. Obama’s own policies.  Six percent are unsure.  Voters’ views are consistent with the September McClatchy-Marist poll.  At that time, 59% reported the president inherited the nation’s financial troubles while 35% thought Mr. Obama’s policies were to blame. Six percent were unsure.

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited
Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited Over Time

Trend graph: Were current economic conditions inherited?

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Better or Worse?  The Future of the U.S. Economy

Half of Americans — 50% — believe that, when thinking about the U.S. economy, the worst is still to come.  46%, on the other hand, report the worst is behind us, and 4% are unsure. Little has changed on this question since last month when 52% thought the worst is yet to come, 44% reported the worst was behind us, and 4% were unsure.

Looking at registered voters nationally, nearly half — 49% — say the worst of the nation’s economic news is ahead of us while 46% believe it is behind us.  Five percent are unsure.  This is relatively unchanged from last month.

Table: U.S. Economy – Will It Get Worse?

Half of Voters with Favorable View of Obama

Despite his job approval rating of 43%, President Obama is perceived favorably by half of voters nationally while 47% have an unfavorable impression of him.  Three percent are unsure.  Last month, 49% thought well of Mr. Obama while 48% did not.  Three percent were unsure.

Table: Obama Favorability
Table: Obama Favorability Over Time

Trend graph: Obama favorability

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Palin, Obama, and Bloomberg in 2012?

What impact would an independent candidate Michael Bloomberg make in the 2012 presidential election?  In this hypothetical matchup, President Obama receives 44% of the electorate to former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s 29%.  New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg garners 18% of the vote.  Nine percent are undecided.  When Marist last asked about this potential matchup in February, 44% backed the president, 29% supported Palin, and 15% touted Bloomberg.  12% were undecided.

While most Democratic voters report they would support Obama, Republican voters are more fractured.  Among Democrats, Obama receives 78% of the vote, Bloomberg takes 11%, and Palin garners 6%.  Five percent are undecided.

While more than six in ten Republican voters — 62% — support Palin, about one in five — 21% — say they would vote for Bloomberg.  Obama receives 8% of the Republican vote.  Nine percent are undecided.

Among independent voters, Obama takes 37% of their support, Palin nets 27%, and Bloomberg receives 23%.  13% are undecided.

Table: Hypothetical 2012 Presidential Matchup: Obama/Palin/Bloomberg

Marist Poll Methodology

9/22: Obama Approval Rating at 45% … Economic Views a Factor

For the first time since taking office, half of registered voters nationwide — 50% — disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.  That’s according to this McClatchy-Marist Poll.  45%, however, approve, and 5% are unsure.

whitehouse.gov

whitehouse.gov

Click Here for Complete September 22, 2010 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Results and Tables

While the proportion of voters who approve of the job the president is doing changed little since Marist last asked about it in June, there has been a slight increase in the proportion of voters who disapprove of the job Mr. Obama is doing.  At that time, voters divided.  45% disapproved of Mr. Obama’s job performance while 44% approved.  11% were unsure.

“Although President Obama’s approval rating is largely unchanged, the number of those who disapprove of his job performance has grown since our last poll,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “This is also reflected in whether he has met voter expectations.  Younger voters are especially disappointed when it comes to their hopes for the president.”

Views of the president’s job performance are partisan.  Looking first at Democratic voters, 81% approve of the job the president is doing while 15% disapprove.  4% are unsure.  In Marist’s June survey, 75% of Democrats approved, 14% disapproved, and 11% were unsure.

Not surprisingly, most Republican voters disapprove of Mr. Obama’s job performance.  82% have this view compared with 13% who approve.  6% are unsure.  Three months ago, 78% of the national GOP said they did not like the way the president was performing in office, 14% approved, and 8% were unsure.

A majority of independent voters — 54% — now disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.  This compares with 40% who approve and 6% who are unsure.  When Marist last asked voters nationally about the president’s job approval rating, 49% of independents disapproved, 37% approved, and 15% were unsure.

It’s no surprise that voters’ views toward the future of the economy are related to the president’s job performance.  68% of voters who believe the worst is yet to come with regard to the U.S. economy disapprove of Mr. Obama’s job performance while 67% who say the worst is behind us approve.

Table: Obama Approval Rating
Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

Trend graph: Obama approval rating

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Majority View Obama as Falling Below Expectations

President Obama is facing another unpleasant first.  For the first time since becoming president, a majority of voters — 54% — report the president has fallen below their expectations.  This is compared with 44% who say Mr. Obama has either met or exceeded their expectations.  2% are unsure.

According to Marist’s June poll, half of registered voters reported the president fell short while 44% thought he met or exceeded their expectations.  6% were unsure.

Among voters who have a more pessimistic view about the U.S. economy, 62% think the president has fallen short while a majority of those who are more optimistic — 53% — say he has either met or exceeded their expectations.

And, President Obama may have campaigned on the platform of change, but the change he is affecting is perceived by a plurality of voters nationwide — 41% — as change for the worse.  37%, though, believe Mr. Obama is changing the nation for the better while 21% think there has been no change at all.  Just 1% are unsure.

In Marist’s June survey, voters divided.  38% thought the president was changing the United States for the better, and 38% reported he was changing the nation for the worse.  21% thought he did not create any change.  3% were unsure.

Once again, the economy comes into play.  58% of those who think the nation’s economy will get worse report the president has changed the nation for the worse while 59% who say the worst of the nation’s economic problems are behind us believe he has changed the country for the better.

Table: Obama Meeting Expectations
Table: Obama Meeting Expectations Over Time

Trend graph: Expectations of Obama

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Table: Direction President is Moving the Country
Table: Direction President is Moving the Country Over Time

Trend graph: Is president moving country in right direction

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

President’s Favorability Below 50% … Increase in Those With Unfavorable View

To compound matters for the president, there has been an increase in those who have an unfavorable view of him.  49% of voters have a favorable impression of Mr. Obama compared with 48% who have an unfavorable one.  3% are unsure.  In Marist’s June survey, half of the electorate perceived the president positively while 43% held him in lower esteem.  7% were unsure.

Table: Obama Favorability
Table: Obama Favorability Over Time

Trend graph: Obama favorability

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Rave Reviews for Michelle Obama

65% of the national electorate have a favorable view of First Lady Michelle Obama while nearly one-fourth — 24% — have an unfavorable impression of her.  11% are unsure.

When Marist asked this question last December, 68% thought well of Mrs. Obama while 20% said they were not fans.  12%, at the time, were unsure.

Most Democratic voters — 84% — and nearly two-thirds of independent voters — 66% — view Mrs. Obama in a positive light.  46% of Republicans think well of Michelle Obama.

Table: Michelle Obama Favorability

Just Call Him, “Unfavorable Joe”

Looking at Vice President Joe Biden’s favorability rating, a plurality of voters — 46% — have an unfavorable impression of Mr. Biden while 39% view him in a positive light.  15% are unsure.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide on this question.  67% of Democrats view Biden favorably while 69% of Republicans have an unfavorable impression of him.  However, even 19% of Democrats have a negative opinion of Biden.  A majority of independent voters — 52% — have an unfavorable view of the vice president.

Table: Biden Favorability

Romney Rooted On by One-Fourth in Primary Matchup

The list of potential Republicans to challenge President Obama in 2012 is long, but there is little agreement among the national GOP and independent voters who are leaning Republican about who that candidate should be.

If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, one-quarter of registered Republican voters and independent voters who are leaning Republican — 25% — say they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin receives the support of 18% while former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich is buoyed by 16%.  An additional 16% of Republican voters including Republican leaning independents report they would back former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and 6% would cast their ballot for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.  Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels receives 4%, and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour garners just 2% nationwide.  13% are unsure.

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Marist Poll Methodology

Lee Miringoff discusses the midterm elections:

Related Stories:

Poll: GOP Over Dems on Enthusiasm for Midterm Elections

Interview: Carl Leubsdorf Takes Us Inside the Midterms

Interview: Bonnie Angelo Discusses the Political Climate Leading Up To the Midterm Elections

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