4/1: The 2013 Democratic Field for NYC Mayor: No Clear Candidate

The pool of potential 2013 Democratic mayoral candidates is wide, but does anyone stand out in the minds of voters?  Not yet.  According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 18% of Democratic voters citywide say, if the primary were held today, they would support Congressman Anthony Weiner.  Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson takes 15%.  Comptroller John Liu receives 13% of the Democratic vote as does City Council Speaker Christine Quinn.  Nine percent of Democrats say they would support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio while 4% would back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.  A notable 27% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete April 1, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

There has been little movement on this question since Marist last reported it in October.  At that time, 21% supported Weiner, 16% backed Thompson, and 10% threw their support behind Liu.   Quinn and de Blasio received the support of 9% and 8%, respectively, while 4% supported Stringer at the time.  32% were undecided.

“With no clear front-runner and a large number of undecided voters, this contest is likely to attract a crowd of candidates,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”This is not unusual for an ‘open’ seat.”

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Just Don’t Do It, Spitz!

There’s one possible candidate who many voters definitely don’t want to see throw his hat into the 2013 mayoralty ring.  62% of registered voters in New York City say they would prefer former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer not run for mayor.  29%, however, say he should.  10% are unsure.

When Marist last asked this question in October, similar proportions of voters held these views.  62% of voters did not want Spitzer to make a bid for mayor while 24% did.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Spitzer can’t even gain traction in his own party.  More than six in ten Democratic voters — 62% — do not want him to seek the mayoralty while 29% do.  Nine percent are unsure.  In Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions of Democrats citywide held these views.

Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid
Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid Over Time

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

4/13: Campaign 2013: No Clear Democratic Front-runner in NYC Mayoralty

Three years is a lifetime in politics, but if the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor were held today, 18% of registered Democrats would support Congressman Anthony Weiner.  Former Comptroller Bill Thompson follows closely behind with 15% of the vote.  And, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn receives the support of 12%.  10% of the city’s Democrats report they would back Public Advocate Bill de Blasio. Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. and Comptroller John Liu each garners 9% of the vote. More than a quarter of New York City Democrats — 27% — are undecided.

“There are plenty of potential candidates for 2013, but no clear front-runner,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “With a long way to go, it’s not surprising that ‘undecided’ best reflects the outlook of Democratic voters at this time.”

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Click Here for Complete April 13, 2010 NYC Poll Release and Tables

The Kelly Question

What if New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly decided to run as the Republican candidate for mayor?  How would he fare against the Democrats’ top contenders?

When pitted against Congressman Anthony Weiner, Weiner receives a majority of registered voters in New York City — 52% — to Kelly’s 33%.  15% are unsure.

New York’s top cop does better when matched up against City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and former Comptroller Bill Thompson.  In the hypothetical contest against Quinn, she receives 45% of the vote to Kelly’s 37%.  18% are undecided.

And, Kelly receives a similar proportion of the vote when he and Thompson face off.  Here, 45% of voters citywide say they would support Thompson while 36% would back Kelly.  19% are unsure.

Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Weiner
Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Quinn
Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Thompson

Marist Poll Methodology

9/21: Bloomberg Leads Thompson 50% to 39%

The candidates are now in place for November’s race for mayor in New York City, and early numbers show the incumbent, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, with 50% of registered voters compared with 39% for his Democratic challenger, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  10% say they are unsure.  In Marist’s July survey, 48% reported they backed Bloomberg, 35% supported Thompson, and 17% were unsure.

When looking at those all-important likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Bloomberg has 52% to Thompson’s 43%.

How does the race shape up along party lines?  Registered Republicans are overwhelmingly on Bloomberg’s side.  80% are backing Bloomberg compared with 17% for Thompson.  Democrats, on the other hand, divide with 43% supporting Bloomberg and 46% behind Thompson.  A majority of non-enrolled voters say Bloomberg is their man compared with one-third who want Thompson to take over the reins as mayor.

Looking at race, Thompson receives the support of 52% of African American voters compared with 37% for Bloomberg.  Bloomberg garners the support of six in ten white voters, and Thompson receives the backing of 29%.  Latino members of the electorate divide with 48% supporting Bloomberg and 43% in favor of Thompson.

Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in NYC — Registered Voters
Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in NYC — Likely Voters Including Leaners

Click Here for Complete September 21, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Majority of Voters Strongly Support a Candidate…Most Predict Bloomberg Winner

A majority of registered voters in New York City say they strongly back their choice of candidate.  52% report this to be the case while 30% are just somewhat behind their pick.  17% might cast their ballot differently come Election Day.

Slightly more registered voters who say they support Bloomberg are firmly entrenched in his camp compared with those who report backing Thompson.  54% of those who favor Bloomberg are firmly committed to their candidate while 49% of Thompson’s supporters vow not to waver.

So, why are voters backing a specific candidate?  63% of registered voters report they like their candidate while 32% say they’re backing a candidate, because they dislike his competitor.  The latter is the case for a majority of Thompson supporters — 58% — while only 12% of Bloomberg’s backers report they are voting for Bloomberg, because they are against Thompson.

And, Thompson certainly needs to prove to the electorate that he has a fighting chance to beat Mayor Bloomberg.  Right now, 78% of registered voters in the city, regardless of whom they are planning to support, say they think Bloomberg will win a third term.  This is an increase in the proportion of registered voters who thought this way in Marist’s July survey. Currently, even 62% of voters who support Bill Thompson share this view.

Table: Intensity of Support
Table: Voting For Candidate or Against Opponent?
Table: Will Bloomberg Be Re-elected?

Campaign Sparks Voters’ Interest?

Although a majority within the electorate is tossing hefty support behind a candidate, just how engaged are voters in the race for mayor?  51% of registered voters describe the contest as boring, and 44% believe it to be interesting.  Not surprisingly, interest increases among likely voters.

However, 53% of the overall electorate is keeping a close eye on the election.  This includes 12% who report they are following the campaign very closely and 41% who are closely following it.  36% are not tracking the race much, and 11% admit to not being engaged in it at all.

Table: Mayoral Race Boring or Interesting?
Table: Closely Following Campaign

Thompson Who? Unknown to 29%…About Six in Ten View Bloomberg Favorably

62% of New York City voters have a favorable impression of Mayor Bloomberg compared with 49% who view Thompson this way.

But, Thompson does not have as unfavorable an image as the mayor.  Just 22% have a negative impression of Thompson compared with 32% for Bloomberg.  And, fewer voters have yet to pass judgment on the comptroller.  29% of the electorate doesn’t know what to make of him while just 6% say the same about Bloomberg.

Table: Bloomberg Favorability
Table: Thompson Favorability

Unconcerned About Bloomberg’s Spending

How do voters react to Mayor Bloomberg’s personal campaign spending?  73% of registered voters say the amount of money Mayor Bloomberg is shelling out will not impact their vote.  21% think it will make them less likely to vote for him compared with just 6% who report they are more likely to do so.  In Marist’s July survey, 65% said Bloomberg’s money would make no difference.

Table: Bloomberg Campaign Finance

Setting Priorities: Jobs and Education Top List

Voters may not know who will be the city’s next mayor, but they do know the issues that should be at the top of his agenda.  25% think jobs should be the next mayor’s priority, and 20% believe it should be education.  With 17%, economic development comes in third.  Housing follows with 9%, and security from terrorism and taxes round out the top five with 6%

Table: Mayor’s Priority

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

9/21: Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

9/21: An Interview: The 2009 Mayor’s Race

Click Here for Exclusive NY Daily News/Marist Poll Numbers

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff says Bloomberg could face a competitive race, if his opponent plays his cards right:

9/21: Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

As Mayor Michael Bloomberg digs in to square off against New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson in the race for New York City mayor, how do voters think Michael Bloomberg is doing in office?  59% of registered voters citywide report Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  Just 11% report he is doing poorly.  This is similar to the job approval rating — 58% — Mr. Bloomberg received in July.

Bloomberg’s positive rating crosses party lines.  However, there has been some movement since Marist last asked this question.  69% of Republicans currently give the mayor high marks compared with 62% two months ago.  While his rating has improved among this group, it has dipped among non-enrolled voters with 56% approving of Bloomberg’s performance now and 65% saying the same in July.  As for Democrats, 59% currently look well on the mayor’s job.  56% thought so when last asked.

Overall, does the electorate think the city is headed in the right direction?  54% of registered voters say, “Yes,” while 38% disagree.  These proportions are little changed since Marist last asked this question in July.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating
Table: NYC Direction

Click Here for Complete September 21, 2009 Poll Release and Tables

At Issue: Bloomberg’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Where do voters think Mayor Bloomberg excels, and where do they believe he needs improvement?  The electorate in the Big Apple says he’s done the best on education and economic development.  26% and 23%, respectively, believe this to be true.  With 14%, crime comes in a distant third, and security against terrorism follows closely behind with 11%.  17% believe the mayor has done the best on other issues.

As for where Bloomberg needs some work, there is little consensus among the electorate.  15% believe the mayor has done the worst on housing.  14% say transportation is his Achilles’ heel, and similar proportions sound off about taxes — 13%, poverty — 12%, and education — 12%.  26% cite other issues as his weakest.

Table: Bloomberg’s Best Issue
Table: Bloomberg’s Worst Issue

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

9/21: Bloomberg Leads Thompson 50% to 39%

9/21: An Interview: The 2009 Mayor’s Race

Click Here for Exclusive NY Daily News/Marist Poll Numbers

9/21: An Interview: The 2009 Mayor’s Race

Jay DeDapper is a veteran television political reporter who has covered New York politics for more than a decade.  In an interview with the Marist Poll’s John Sparks, DeDapper considers the matchup between New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Democratic challenger Bill Thompson, and he discusses the impact of the $36 million the mayor has spent on his re-election campaign.

Listen to the Interview, Part 1:

John Sparks
Jay, back in July, 51% of registered voters in New York City told The Marist Poll it was time to oust Mayor Michael Bloomberg from office and elect someone else.  Now in that same poll, Bloomberg led Bill Thompson 48% to 35%.  Do you sense that, as we get closer to the general election, that the Mayor’s pulling away and widening his lead?

Jay DeDapper
I think there’s a limit to how much of a lead that he can get, even though he’s not a Republican, a registered Republican anymore.  He’s not registered in any party.  He’s created his own party to run, and he’s running on the independent line.  I think that in a city that this is overwhelmingly Democratic, there is a limit to how many votes anybody can get that’s not on the Democratic line.  That being said, he is widely seen, and the Marist Poll has shown this, previous Marist Polls have shown this, he’s widely seen to be politically independent and not really a Democrat or a Republican, and I think that appeals to a lot of people.  So, I think his wide lead that he has now, and it is sizeable, I don’t think it’s going to grow much more. I think that there is a limit to how wide a lead that he can get in this race.

John Sparks
Now you mentioned he’s an independent.  He’s also independently wealthy. He spent a reported $36 million on getting re-elected.  Is it the money that makes this an insurmountable race for Bill Thompson?

Jay DeDapper
Well, money is always important and he spent — Mike Bloomberg spent $70 some odd million for the first time around.  He spent $80 some odd million last time. There’s been talk that he’d spend $100 million by the time all the final checks are cut in this election, and that’s a huge disadvantage for Bill Thompson.  Bill Thompson is participating in the public finance system in New York City, which is pretty progressive.  It’s one of the most advanced in the country, but it doesn’t account for people who spend all of their own money, and there’s kind of no way to account for that under the law right now.  So, it’s a huge disadvantage for Bill Thompson. But, to say that it’s only money, I think misses a point, and that is that there have been lots of candidates with a lot of money that have lost races. In fact, until Mike Bloomberg came along, the rule was you could spend — that super rich people could spend all the money they wanted and didn’t have a very good chance of winning election, all other things being equal.  All other things are not equal in this case.  Bill Thompson has not been an aggressive, an assertive candidate.  He has had fewer public events, campaign events, than Mike Bloomberg, and if you’re the guy who is the underdog in the money race, then you’ve got to out-hustle the guy who’s got all the money. Bill Thompson isn’t out-hustling anybody right now.

John Sparks
So, what would it take for Thompson to win in November?

Listen to Part 2:

Jay DeDapper
He would have to become a different candidate.  New York … I think New Yorkers, and you look back at the mayor’s races and the mayors that have been elected in the past, New York has a long history of electing characters.  There’s, of course, Fiorello La Guardia. There was Ed Koch.  There was Rudy Giuliani. Lindsay was in his own way a character.  And, in between these characters, there have often been kind of quiet technocratic kind of people.  Abe Beame was one.  You could argue that Dave Dinkins was.  He certainly wasn’t much of a character.  He was historic, but he wasn’t much of a character.  Mike Bloomberg has turned into a character.   As much as he was kind of a colorless billionaire when he first ran, he’s turned into a bit of a character, a little bit a hottie [sic].  The Marist Poll has shown over the years that people don’t really like his attitude.  They don’t think he relates to them or that he understands their concerns, but at the end of the day, he’s got a character, and they think he does a pretty good job.  Bill Thompson is not a character. He is as colorless as you can get, and he hasn’t demonstrated any knack for becoming a character in people’s minds.  In the very short period between now and election day, Bill Thompson would have to become a different person. That maybe is something he can do.  Candidates have done that in the past, but he’d have to become a different person.

John Sparks
I was going to follow-up and ask–does he really have enough time to accomplish that?

Jay DeDapper
I think maybe the way I’d like to answer that is: Could a candidate in this amount of time accomplish what has to be accomplished?  And, I think in the hypothetical, yes.  Bill Thompson is going to have to go from zero to 60 tomorrow to be able to pull this off.

John Sparks
I’m curious about something else.  Is Governor Paterson hurting Bill Thompson’s chances to be elected?

Listen to Part 3:

Jay DeDapper
I don’t think there’s any evidence of that.  Paterson has plenty of his own problems, and that’s a whole other story.  He’s gotten tremendously high negatives and a real, real problem with trying to get re-elected next year.  But, I don’t think there’s any link in voters’ minds between Bill Thompson and David Paterson. They haven’t appeared together.  They aren’t particularly close.  Certainly, David Paterson’s not going to come and campaign for Bill Thompson, because Bill Thompson probably doesn’t want David Paterson to come and campaign for him.  So, I don’t think that’s his problem.  I mean Bill Thompson is not tainted by the leading Democrat in the state having low poll numbers.  Bill Thompson is tainted by the fact that he simply is not running a campaign so far that has energy, ideas, attitude, assertiveness, aggressiveness, fire in the belly.  There’s no fire in the belly.

John Sparks
Hindsight’s 20/20.  Did Anthony Weiner make a mistake by dropping out?

Jay DeDapper
That’s a hard question.  I mean, I think most people, most political analysts, myself included, believe that Anthony Weiner had a much better shot at winning — at beating Mike Bloomberg than Bill Thompson did.  But, could he have beaten him?  I don’t know, and Anthony Weiner in a purely political calculation, I think, looked at the map and said, “Look, I can run again in four years, and I will have been out there in two different cycles.  I will have a lot of name recognition.  I will be able to continue to raise issues and get free media and talk, and Mike Bloomberg won’t be running again in four years, and I won’t have to face his $80 million or whatever it’s going to be.”  I think that Weiner, I’m sure, thinks in his own mind that he made the right choice because he’s a young guy, and he’s looking at the long run.  He wasn’t looking at the short-term advantage.  It would’ve been a tough race. It would’ve been … I think it would be a much competitive race if it was Anthony Weiner versus Mike Bloomberg than it is shaping up to be with Bill Thompson versus Mike Bloomberg.

John Sparks
You addressed what Bill Thompson would have to do in order to prevail in November, but I want to ask you: What must Mike Bloomberg do to hold onto his lead and to win in November?

Listen to Part 4:

Jay DeDapper
Bloomberg has real vulnerabilities, and The Marist Poll, this one and previous ones have pointed it out, and I’ve alluded to at least one of them, people, New Yorkers, the average New Yorker doesn’t think that he understands them nor is particularly concerned about what affects them.  He is seen as a fairly aloof kind of sarcastic, not necessarily very nice rich guy, but he’s also seen as someone who is effective.  And, in this case and in this economy, effectiveness seems to trump likability, at least so far, at least according to the polls.  He has to work on the likability thing though because the danger is that he is seen as even more arrogant than he’s already seen if he simply goes forward assuming that he is going to win because he’s the right guy for the right time, and he’s got the track record to do it.  So, I think you are going to see that.  I think you are going to see the campaign working on trying to make Mike Bloomberg a little less of the out-of-touch billionaire and a little more of the I may not feel your pain, but at least I understand it billionaire.

John Sparks
Jay, do you think there’s any lingering resentment toward Bloomberg over the third term?

Jay DeDapper
I think that if you polled people, and you asked them that question specifically, and the further away we get it from it, it probably diminishes, but there has always been a lot of lingering resentment, at least in the polls that I’ve seen since this — since the term limits went through.  But even at the time that the term limit debate was at its hottest, and the vast majority of New Yorkers said, “We don’t think the term limits should be overturned,” when those same voters were asked:  “Well do you think Mike Bloomberg deserves a third term?” almost the same majority who were opposed to overturning term limits said: “Well, yeah, we think Mike Bloomberg should get a chance at a third term.”  So, there’s a contradiction in voters’ minds, and I don’t think this has hurt him.  I don’t think that whatever lingering resentment there is, I don’t think it’s enough to drive his supporters into the arms of Bill Thompson right now, and Bill hasn’t done a particularly effective job of stoking that resentment.  It’s not an issue we’ve heard very much about in the last three months, and if you can’t make that an issue during the slow summer months, the dog days of August, you’re not going to make it an issue in October I don’t think.

John Sparks
I would think in the short time between the primary and the general that he’s going to really have to mount up an attack on the mayor.  Having said that, do you think that there’s any chance in that short period of time that the mayor will stumble?

Listen to Part 5:

Jay DeDapper
There is. The mayor has shown over his eight years in office a tin ear to the perceptions of him. One of the most egregious cases was when a reporter in a wheelchair in the front row of a news conference inadvertently, or it was thought, had inadvertently played back a little piece of his tape recorder and it sounded like — it was a noise that interrupted the on-going press conference.  And, the mayor castigated him in terms that were just nasty.  It turned out it wasn’t even this guy’s tape recorder, and it took the mayor awhile to apologize.  That kind of thing, and it got some attention in the press, that kind of thing in the heat and the glare of an election battle in the really hot campaigning over the last three or four weeks of campaigning, a talented opponent could take that and really hurt the mayor with it, with that kind of thing.  The mayor is capable of that kind of gaffe.  He’s demonstrated it repeatedly, and he is certain enough of his own success that his closest advisors are not going to keep him — be able to keep him from making a gaffe like that if it’s going to happen.  The question would be: If a gaffe like that happens, would Bill Thompson be able to take advantage of it?  That’s the bigger question to me than will the mayor make a gaffe.

John Sparks
Do you think that the Democrats could’ve fielded a more formidable opponent?

Jay DeDapper
Yes.  Anthony Weiner, the polls showed repeatedly, would’ve been a more formidable opponent, and clearly, here’s a guy who knows how to get free media.  He learned at the feet of Chuck Schumer, the king of free media.  He knows how to get attention. He knows how to throw a punch.  He knows how to appeal to the resentment about the term limits.  He knows how to appeal to the anger there is, especially among ethnic blue-collar workers about the state of the economy and playing outer borough against Manhattan.  He knows how do that, and that’s how you’re going to win.  That’s how you’re going to beat Mike Bloomberg. Not that it would be an easy thing to do, but he would’ve been a formidable candidate.  He was the only name that was out there mentioned that was serious. People talked about Bill Clinton running or something like that.  I mean, yeah, Bill Clinton probably would’ve been a formidable candidate, but in terms of the realistic possible candidates, they could’ve fielded someone better, and his name is Anthony Weiner.

John Sparks
Jay, it’s always interesting to talk about your observations. You’ve covered New York politics for well beyond a decade.  Anything else that you’d like to comment on the mayor’s race?

Listen to Part 6:

Jay DeDapper
I think what’s probably most interesting is this notion, and I’ve alluded to it, but this notion of effectiveness versus likability, and Rudy Giuliani, to some degree, succeeded in the same way.  I remember in 1997, we went out to an African American middle class neighborhood in Queens, St. Albans, after Rudy Giuliani was re-elected overwhelmingly.  Rudy Giuliani had had a terrible relationship with the African American community from … really from 1989 on … but from 1993 his election on … terrible relationship.  He … I don’t recall if he came very close to winning, or he did win in St. Albans.  And, when we talked to people on the street: why?  They all said they didn’t like him, but crime was down.  The streets were safer.  Things were better.  And, I think, at the end of the day, that voters, as much as we talk about how much voters vote just about who they like, who would they most like in their living room, when you’re talking about incumbency, effectiveness trumps likability, and I think there’s case-after-case of that, at least in New York City, where that is true.  And, Mike Bloomberg is not very well liked, but he is well respected, and that, in this year with this economy, with the troubles facing the city, is an advantage that will be very difficult for Bill Thompson to overcome.

Click here to check out Jay DeDapper’s Web site

Related Stories:

9/21: Bloomberg Leads Thompson 50% to 39%

9/21: Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

Click Here for Exclusive NY Daily News/Marist Poll Numbers

7/8: Bloomberg Approval Rating at 58%

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s approval rating may have waned a bit back in February, but by the looks of The Marist Poll’s new citywide survey, the mayor is on solid ground.  58% of registered New York City voters report Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office while 40% say he is performing fairly well or poorly.  The mayor received similar ratings when Marist last asked this question in May.  At that time, the mayor rebounded from Marist’s February survey when he received a lower, albeit still strong, approval rating — 52%.

Although Bloomberg’s approval rating crosses party lines, race comes into play.  68% of white voters and 64% of Latino voters give the mayor above average marks.  This compares with just 37% of African American voters who share this view.

What does the electorate think about the city’s trajectory?  A majority is positive about the city’s path.  52% report the city is moving in the right direction.  This is compared with 38% who believe the opposite is true.  Similar proportions of voters said the same in Marist’s May survey.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: NYC Direction

“Hard Working, Knows Our Problems, and a Good Leader, But Caring Mayor…Mike Is Not,” Says Voters

As in The Marist Poll’s May survey, voters in the Big Apple say they like Mike!  78% of the electorate thinks Bloomberg is working hard as mayor, 68% report he is a good leader for New York City, and 70% think Mayor Bloomberg has a firm grasp on the problems facing the city.

Voters have a different perception of Bloomberg, however, when it comes to being a mayor who cares about the average New Yorker.  Here, the mayor fails to receive a majority of voters who believe he cares about people like them.  In fact, the electorate divides with 48% saying Bloomberg is an empathetic mayor and 46% who disagree.  In May, half of voters said the mayor cares about people like them.

Table:  Bloomberg Working Hard As Mayor

Table: Understands the Problems Facing New York City

Table: Is a Good Leader for New York City

Table: Cares About People Like You

Majority Approves of Bloomberg’s Handling of City Schools, Economic Crisis, & Crime…Other Areas Need Work

The New York State Senate’s legislative inaction has taken control of the New York City public schools out of Mayor Bloomberg’s hands.  But, according to a majority — 53% — of New York City voters, Mayor Bloomberg was doing a good job handling the schools.  38% disagree.  When it comes to money matters, 51% report they like the way Mayor Bloomberg is dealing with the city’s economic crisis.  This is compared with 40% who disagree.  And, looking at the way the mayor is dealing with the city’s budget, 49% approve of Bloomberg’s plan while 41% disapprove.

On the issue of taxes, however, the tides turn against Mayor Bloomberg.  A plurality of the city’s electorate — 49% — disapproves of how Mr. Bloomberg is addressing the situation.  44% approve.  The mayor also needs to score some points on the question of public transportation.  Here, a majority — 56% — say they do not like how the mayor is handling the issue while 39% think Bloomberg is dealing with the matter well.  In all of these areas, the mayor received similar ratings in May.

Since that May survey, there has been a slight dip in the proportion of voters who approve of how Bloomberg is handling crime in New York City.  Although nearly three-quarters of the electorate — 74% — currently support the mayor’s methods, 78% said the same two months ago.

Table: Bloomberg on Public Schools

Table: Bloomberg on Economic Crisis

Table: Bloomberg on the City’s Budget

Table: Bloomberg on Taxes

Table: Bloomberg on Public Transportation

Table: Bloomberg on Crime

Marist Poll Methodology

Lee Miringoff discusses Mayor Bloomberg’s latest poll numbers:

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7/8: Majority Says Elect New Mayor…But, Even More Think Bloomberg Will Win Third Term

7/8: Green Light Among Democrats in Race for Public Advocate

Complete July 8, 2009 NYC Poll Release & Tables

Complete May 13, 2009 NYC Poll Tables

5/13: Campaign ’09: Change in the Air?

The winds of change may have weakened in New York City.  The electorate now divides over whether Mayor Michael Bloomberg deserves to be re-elected.  47% say that he should receive a third term while 48% say, “No.”

This is potentially good news for the mayor.  In The Marist Poll’s February survey, a majority — 55% — said it was time to give someone else a turn as mayor while 40% wanted to see Bloomberg remain in City Hall.

Table: Bloomberg Re-election

Bloomberg Hovers at 50% Mark in Hypothetical Matchups

If this year’s mayoral race were held today, Mayor Bloomberg would win a third term.  However, there is a large gap between Bloomberg’s job approval rating — 59% — and the proportion of electoral support he would receive when pitted against hypothetical opponents.  Here are some of the scenarios:

• When stacked up against Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner, Bloomberg leads by a wide margin.  However, Bloomberg hovers right at the mid-point.  Half of city voters say they would cast their ballot for Bloomberg while 36% report they would vote for Weiner.  14% are undecided.  Furthermore, Bloomberg’s support remains relatively unchanged since The Marist Poll’s February survey.

• Looking at a face-off against Democratic City Comptroller Bill Thompson, Bloomberg maintains a commanding lead.  But still, the mayor garners only a slim majority of support.  Currently, 51% would back Bloomberg, 33% would support Thompson, and 16% are unsure about the candidate for whom they would cast their ballot.  In February, Bloomberg had the support of 53% of city voters, Thompson garnered 36%, and 11% of the electorate was unsure.

• How does Bloomberg fare against Democratic City Council Member Tony Avella?  Bloomberg would beat Avella by 25 percentage points, 52% to 27%.  In that matchup, 21% of registered voters are unsure.  However, Bloomberg has lost some support, and more voters are unsure than in February.  At that time, 57% of voters backed Bloomberg while 30% supported Avella.  Just 13% reported they were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg/Weiner 2009 Matchup
Table: Bloomberg/Thompson 2009 Matchup
Table: Bloomberg/Avella 2009 Matchup

Weiner: Would-be Democratic Candidate for Mayor?

So, who do New York City Democrats want to challenge Mayor Bloomberg this fall?  Congressman Anthony Weiner edges out Comptroller Bill Thompson.  If the 2009 Democratic primary were held today, Weiner would receive 34% while Thompson would garner 29%.  Council Member Tony Avella is a distant third with 8% of Democrats’ support.  A notable proportion of Democrats — 29% — remain unsure.  When Marist College last asked this question, Weiner had an 8 percentage point lead over Thompson — 38% to 30%.  9% of Democrats said they would vote for Avella, and 23% reported they were unsure.

Table: 2009 Democratic Primary Tossup

Short Odds on Bloomberg…Voters Indifferent About Campaign Spending

The New York City electorate believes victory will be a walk in the park for Mayor Bloomberg.  Regardless of whom they plan to support, 73% say they think Bloomberg will be re-elected while 18% believe otherwise.

And, New York City voters are indifferent about the amount of money the mayor plans to spend on his campaign.  Mayor Bloomberg has said that he will spend millions of his own money on his bid for a third term as he did for his previous campaigns. New York City voters don’t really seem to care.  73% report it will not affect their vote while 11% say Bloomberg’s spending will increase the likelihood they will vote for him.  16% think it will make them less likely to support the mayor.  The proportion of voters who think Bloomberg’s campaign spending is immaterial was 65% in February.

Table: Will Bloomberg be Re-elected?
Table: Bloomberg Campaign Finance

Going Green for Public Advocate?

If this year’s Democratic primary for New York City’s Public Advocate were held today, former New York City Public Advocate Mark Green would beat his competition with 42% of the vote, eliminating the need for a runoff.  Civil Rights Lawyer Norman Siegel would come in a distant second with 15% of the vote, and City Council Members Bill de Blasio and Eric Gioia would take home 9% and 4%, respectively.  Three in ten Democratic voters are unsure.  Green has widened his lead by 7 percentage points since February.

Table: Public Advocate Tossup

Marist Poll Methodology

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Complete May 13, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Slides

Although a majority of registered voters in New York City — 59% — think Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office, his approval rating has dropped significantly. This is the first time since 2005 that his job performance rating has dipped into the 50 percent range. In a Marist Poll conducted in August 2005, 53% of the city’s voters thought Mayor Bloomberg was doing well in his position. Bloomberg’s approval rating has fallen since last month when 68% of the electorate thought Bloomberg was doing an above average job. Currently, Bloomberg is far from perfect in the eyes of 39% of voters. 28% report his job as fair while 11% say he is performing poorly as mayor.

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Third Term’s a Charm? Bloomberg’s Bid for Re-election

New Yorkers Favor Term Limits…But, Candidate Bloomberg Might Be a Game Changer: Registered voters in New York City support term limits for their elected officials. 50% of New York City’s electorate favors the current law while 35% oppose the restrictions on officials seeking re-election after a second term. However, when asked specifically if Mayor Michael Bloomberg should be allowed to seek a third term, more voters want to change the law. Yet, the issue remains controversial. In this case, 46% of New Yorkers report they would want the mayor to be permitted to run for another term. 44% of registered voters in the five boroughs say, “No way.” 10% citywide haven’t made up their minds.

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NYC Voters Applaud Bloomberg … But Not National Tour

Michael Bloomberg continues to receive good reviews as mayor: 66% of New York City voters rate the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing as excellent or good. 22% of city voters rate the mayor’s job performance as excellent, 44% as good, 25% as fair, and 6% as poor. His approval rating is unchanged from a similar poll conducted last July when Mayor Bloomberg received his highest combined excellent and good score.

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