11/3: Drop in de Blasio’s Approval Rating… Support among Base Erodes

November 3, 2015 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Two years until New York City’s next mayoralty election, Mayor Bill de Blasio’s job approval rating has declined.  To compound problems for de Blasio, support among his base has dropped, 9 points among African American voters and 12 points among Latino voters.  Of note, the racial divide which has underscored views about, both, Mayor de Blasio and the city still exists, but that gap is less pronounced than in the past.

Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating among registered voters citywide stands at 38%, down from 44% in May.  With the exception of Queens and Staten Island where de Blasio’s approval rating has inched up slightly, 33% to 37%, the mayor’s approval rating has fallen citywide.  The most dramatic decline has occurred in Manhattan where 32% now rate de Blasio highly compared with 53% in the spring.

While de Blasio still scores higher among African American, 50%, and Latino voters, 37%, than white voters, 32%, Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating has fallen among both groups.  Previously, the mayor received a 59% approval rating among African Americans and 49% among Latinos.

On the specifics of de Blasio’s job performance, the mayor has lost points on his handling of crime.  Fewer than four in ten adults in the city, 39%, say they approve of his approach, and a majority, 51%, disapproves.  In the previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, residents divided, 47% to 46%.  On the issue of police and community relations, the mayor also receives low marks with 37% saying they approve of how he is handling the issue and 53% reporting they do not.  Mayor de Blasio fares better on the issue of race relations where 48% of residents approve of the mayor’s approach.  On education, residents divide with 42% reporting they approve of his handling and 45% saying they disapprove.  New York City public school parents, 49%, are more likely to give Mayor de Blasio higher marks than residents, overall, on his handling of the schools.

Although his favorable score among registered voters has dipped from 59% to 52%, Mayor de Blasio remains well-liked.  Of note, de Blasio’s positive score has declined 13 points among Latinos and 16 points among voters in Manhattan.

On the bright side for de Blasio, voters citywide think he is working hard as mayor, 60%, and believe he understands the problems facing the city, 56%.  Despite a decline from 59% earlier this year, a majority of voters, 53%, still maintains the mayor cares about the average person, and a plurality, 47%, disagree that de Blasio cares more about keeping low-level offenders out of jail than protecting the public from crime.

However, the electorate divides, 46% agree to 48% who disagree, about whether or not de Blasio is a good leader for New York City.  Previously, a majority, 53%, thought de Blasio was a strong leader for the five boroughs.  Voters, 54%, also report de Blasio spends too much time debating his policies on the national stage and is not focusing enough attention on New York City.  In the last poll, voters divided.  44% agreed he spent too much time on the national stage, and 46% disagreed.  Overall, 37% of registered voters now think de Blasio is changing the city for the better, and 28%, up from 20%, believe he is changing it for the worse.

Fewer than four in ten voters, citywide, 38%, think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  This is down from 45% in the spring and matches the lowest proportion of voters since January of 2011 to say New York City is on track.  In addition, more residents, when compared with May, say the overall quality of life in New York City has gotten worse, 41%, since Mayor de Blasio became mayor, up from 33%.

What does this all mean for de Blasio?  Nearly half of voters, 49%, say de Blasio does not deserve to be re-elected, and 42% think he does.  This has flipped from the previous poll when a plurality of voters, 47%, reported the mayor deserved a second term, and 42% thought he did not.

Despite waning support for de Blasio, especially among his base, potential opponents are not well-known citywide and attract little support from Democrats.  When matched against possible challengers for the 2017 Democratic primary, at present, Mayor de Blasio is the odds-on favorite.  Even a slim majority of Latinos, among whom de Blasio has lost the most traction, supports him.  Mayor de Blasio’s strength in a potential primary contest is significant with one exception. Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz, Jr. edges de Blasio among Democratic voters in the Bronx.

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Looking ahead to a re-election campaign, there is no single potential opponent on the horizon poised to defeat the mayor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “However, there is growing discontent among voters who have previously supported the mayor about the job he is doing.” 

Click Here for Complete November 3, 2015 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

Poll points:

  • 38% of registered voters citywide think de Blasio is doing either an excellent, 6%, or good, 32%, job in office.  This is a 6 point drop in the mayor’s approval rating since May when he received 44%.
  • While the proportion of white voters who approve of de Blasio’s job performance, 32%, is unchanged from the spring, fewer Latino voters and African American voters now give the mayor high marks.  37% of Latinos, down from 49%, and 50% of African Americans, down from 59%, approve of de Blasio’s job performance.
  • By borough, the mayor has lost the most support in Manhattan.  His approval rating in the borough is at 32%, down from 53%.  In Brooklyn, 42% of voters, a drop from 49%, give the mayor good marks.  42% of those in the Bronx, a decline from 47%, approve of de Blasio’s job performance.  Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating in Queens and Staten Island has increased slightly from 33% to 37%.

Mayor de Blasio on the Issues

Nearly half of residents, 48%, approve of how Mayor de Blasio is handling race relations in New York City.  40% disapprove.  Half of the city’s white residents, 50%, are dissatisfied with the mayor’s job performance in this area in contrast to 60% of African Americans and 49% of Latinos who have a positive view.

Majorities of residents are unhappy with Mayor de Blasio’s handling of police and community relations, 53%, and crime, 51%.  There is little change in perceptions of the mayor’s role when it comes to the police and city residents.  However, earlier this year, residents divided about how the mayor approached the problem of crime in the city with 47% approving of his handling of the issue and 46% disapproving.

Mayor de Blasio has also lost support on how he is handling the city’s public schools.  42% currently approve, down from 47%.  Still, nearly half of parents with a child in public school, 49%, approve of how he is tackling the issue.

Majority with Favorable View of de Blasio, but…

52% of voters, down from 59%, have a favorable view of de Blasio.  38% have an unfavorable one.  Opinions of de Blasio among whites and African Americans are little changed.  However, while more than six in ten Latino voters, 61%, have a positive impression of de Blasio, the proportion has declined from 74% in May.

Mayor de Blasio’s favorable rating has gone down citywide, except in Brooklyn.  The most precipitous decline has occurred in Manhattan where 48% have a favorable opinion of the mayor, a 16 point change from 64% in the spring.

New York City voters attribute positive characteristics such as being a hard worker, understanding the problems facing the city, and caring about the average person to Mayor de Blasio.  Additionally, they disagree that de Blasio emphasizes keeping low-level offenders out of jail at the expense of protecting citizens from crime.

However, there has been a decline in those who view the mayor as caring, as a good leader for New York City, and as a mayor who deserves to be re-elected.  A majority now perceives de Blasio as spending too much time in the national spotlight.

When it comes to Mayor de Blasio’s overall impact on New York City, a plurality, 37%, says he is changing the Big Apple for the better, and 28% believe he is changing it for the worse.  The proportion of those who believed the mayor was having a positive effect on the city in May was 40%.  At that time only 20% thought he was making New York City worse.

Pessimism in New York City Grows

The proportion of New York City voters who think the city is moving in the right direction, 38%, is at its lowest since January 2011.  Additionally, more than four in ten residents believe the overall quality of life in the Big Apple has gotten worse in the past year up from 33% last spring.

Poll points:

  • 38% of voters, down from 45%, think the city is moving in the right direction, and a majority, 55%, says it is moving in the wrong one. 
  • Voters in Manhattan are the least optimistic.  31% of these voters report the city is moving in the right direction.  This is a 19 point drop from 50% who had this view earlier this year.
  • 41% of New York City residents think the overall quality of life in New York City has gotten worse in the last year, and 16% say it has gotten better.  19% believe it has stayed the same which is a bad thing, and 18% think it has remained the same which is a good thing.  Three percent report the quality of life is about the same which is neither good nor bad. 
  • Whites, 51%, are more likely than African Americans, 37%, and Latinos, 39%, to think the quality of life in New York City has gotten worse. 
  • The proportion of whites who say the city’s quality of life has deteriorated has increased from 35%.  And, there has been an 11 point increase in the proportion of African Americans and a 4% increase among Latinos who share this view. 
  • 42% of residents think the number of homeless, panhandlers, and mentally ill on the city’s streets have increased since de Blasio has become mayor.  The same proportion, 42%, says the number has remained the same, and only 8% believe it has declined.  Similar proportions of adults had these views in May.
  • 60% of adults think the cleanliness of the subways has not changed since de Blasio became mayor.  15% say they are cleaner, and 15% report they are dirtier.
  • Nearly six in ten residents, 59%, support the proposal to restrict costumed panhandlers in Times Square to designated areas.  32% oppose the plan.

Stop and Frisk Still Polarizing Issue

While 38% of residents want Mayor de Blasio to continue to reduce stop and frisk, 36% think the policy should revert to what it was during Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s administration.  16% think de Blasio should leave things the way they are now, and 10% are unsure.

About two-thirds of adults citywide have, at least, a fair amount of confidence in the New York City Police to keep them safe from violent crime.

Poll points:

  • Nearly half of white residents, 49%, think stop and frisk should return to what it was during the Bloomberg years while 50% of African Americans and 42% of Latinos believe de Blasio should continue to reduce the policy.  Still, 31% of Latinos and 24% of African Americans assert Bloomberg’s policy regarding stop and frisk should be reinstated.
  • 66% of residents have either a great deal of confidence, 27%, or a fair amount of confidence, 39%, in the police to protect them from violent crime.  This is up from 60% who had this view in the spring.  33% have either some confidence, 15%, or little confidence, 18%, in the NYPD to keep them safe.
  • Whites, 82%, are more likely than African Americans, 59%, and Latinos, 50%, to have faith in the police to protect them.  However, the proportion of African Americans with this view has increased from 49%.  Latinos are little changed on this question.
  • A majority of residents, 52%, supports drug treatment, not jail, for addicts who are repeat offenders and are convicted of a felony for drug dealing.  40% say these individuals should receive jail time.

De Blasio vs. Bloomberg

35% of city residents believe Mayor de Blasio is doing a worse job in office than former Mayor Bloomberg.  One in four, 25%, says de Blasio is a better mayor than Bloomberg, and 35% believe there is little difference between the job performances of both mayors.

Poll points:

  • A majority of whites, 56%, report de Blasio is a worse mayor than Bloomberg.
  • Pluralities of African Americans, 45%, and Latinos, 40%, say de Blasio is doing about the same job as the former mayor in city hall.

Mayor de Blasio Bests Competition for 2017 Democratic Nomination

Mayor de Blasio currently does not face a formidable threat if he is challenged for his party’s nomination in 2017.

Poll points:

  • If the 2017 Democratic primary for mayor were held today, de Blasio would receive 43% of the vote.  New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer and Public Advocate Letitia James each receive 10%.  Nine percent are for Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz, Jr., 5% support Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, and 4% are behind U.S. Representative Hakeem Jeffries.  20% of New York City Democrats are undecided.
  • Among Bronx Democrats, Diaz leads de Blasio, 34% to 29%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

3/7: New Mayor, but City Still Divides

March 7, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Two months after taking office, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is well-liked among registered voters.  Many think de Blasio cares about the average person, is fulfilling campaign promises, can unify the city, and is a good leader.  However, there is a significant racial divide, and fewer than four in ten registered voters in the city approve of de Blasio’s overall job performance as mayor.  Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job approval rating at this time in his first term was 50%.

Click Here for Complete March 7, 2014 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Many voters like the qualities that de Blasio has as mayor, and they are comfortable with him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, race matters, and he still has some convincing to do when it comes to carrying out his responsibilities at City Hall.”

39% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor de Blasio is doing in office.  This includes 10% who think he is doing an excellent job and 29% who say he is doing a good one.  37% rate de Blasio’s performance as fair while one in five voters — 20% — thinks he is performing poorly.  Five percent have either never heard of de Blasio or are unsure how to rate him.

By race:

  • Among African American voters, 50% approve of the job de Blasio is doing.  40% give him fair marks, and 7% rate his performance as poor.
  • 45% of Latino voters give de Blasio high marks.  This compares with 32% who think he is doing an average job, and 19% who call his job performance poor.
  • 30% of white voters think well of how Mayor de Blasio is doing his job.  34% rate his performance as fair, and 30% say he is doing poorly.

By borough:

  • 44% of Bronx voters approve of how de Blasio is doing in office.  About one-third — 33% — rate his performance as fair, and 19% say he is doing a poor job.
  • In Brooklyn, 43% give de Blasio a thumbs-up.  37% believe he is doing a fair job, and 14% think he is performing poorly.
  • 36% of voters in Queens and Staten Island think de Blasio is doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  40% describe his performance as fair, and 22% say it is poor.
  • Three in ten Manhattan voters — 30% — approve of how de Blasio is doing in office.  36% say he is doing a fair job, and 26% think his performance falls short.

Despite de Blasio’s approval rating, nearly six in ten voters — 59% — have a favorable opinion of him.  About one in three — 33% — has an unfavorable one, and 8% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll reported in December before de Blasio took office, 56% said they liked de Blasio, 20% had a lesser opinion of him, and 23% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.  Just before Election Day, 64% thought well of de Blasio.  26% had a negative impression of him, and 10% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

There is a racial divide.  While 78% of African American voters say they like de Blasio, 55% of Latino voters and 49% of white voters say the same.

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

The Nitty-Gritty of de Blasio’s Image

Close to two-thirds of voters think de Blasio cares about people like them, and more than six in ten say he is fulfilling his campaign promises.  Majorities of voters also say he can unify the city and is a good leader for the Big Apple.  When it comes to whether de Blasio is changing New York City for the better, a plurality of voters think he is, and nearly half think he is meeting their expectations.

  • 65% of voters citywide say de Blasio cares about people like them.  31% disagree, and 4% are unsure.  Race matters on this question.  While 86% of African American voters think de Blasio is concerned about them, 66% of Latinos and 51% of white voters say the same.
  • More than six in ten New York City voters — 63% — think de Blasio is fulfilling campaign promises.  One in four — 25% — does not think he is, and 11% are unsure.  By race, more than seven in ten African American voters — 72% — believe de Blasio is keeping his word.  This compares with 61% of Latino voters and 57% of whites.
  • 59% of registered voters think de Blasio can unify the city.  34% do not have confidence in him to do so, and 7% are unsure.  There are racial differences.  79% of African American voters and 64% of Latinos think de Blasio is a unifying force.  This compares with only 42% of white voters who share this opinion.
  • When it comes to de Blasio’s leadership, 58% believe he is a good leader for the city.  About one in three — 33% — says he is not, and 9% are unsure.  Again, race comes into play.  Nearly eight in ten African American voters — 79% — have confidence in de Blasio’s leadership ability while 57% of Latinos and 46% of whites agree.
  • Nearly half of registered voters — 48% — think de Blasio is meeting their expectations as New York City mayor.  Six percent say he is exceeding them while 35% believe he is falling below what they had anticipated.  11% are unsure.  By race, more than six in ten African American voters — 63% — say he is meeting their expectations.  This compares with 48% of Latino voters and 39% of white voters who have this opinion.
  • 43% of voters say de Blasio is changing New York City for the better.  20% think he is having a negative impact, and 25% believe he is having no effect at all.  12% are unsure.  While about two-thirds of African American voters — 66% — think de Blasio is having a positive impact on the city, 44% of Latino voters and 30% of white voters say the same.
  • 59% of voters say de Blasio’s political ideology is about right.  28% think he is too liberal, and 7% say he is too conservative.  Six percent are unsure.  In December’s survey, 61% said his ideology was about right, 21% reported he was too liberal, and 4% thought he was too conservative.  14%, then, were unsure.

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio Cares About Average Person (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio as Fulfilling Campaign Promises (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio as a Unifier (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio as Leader (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Meeting Expectations (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Impact on New York City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Majority of Adults Approves of de Blasio’s Handling of Winter Storms… Schools Tell a Different Tale

56% of New York City residents are satisfied with how de Blasio and his administration managed this winter’s snowstorms.  41% disapprove, and 3% are unsure.  Racial differences exist.  More than seven in ten African Americans — 72% — think well of how de Blasio handled the snowfalls.  This compares with 50% of Latinos and 49% of whites.

But, do adults citywide agree with how de Blasio handled school closings during those storms?  50% do not think he dealt with the situation correctly.  46% believe he did, and 4% are unsure.  While majorities of African Americans — 55% — and Latinos — 53% — say de Blasio’s assessment was spot on, just 40% of whites agree.  Parents of public school children divide.  50% think de Blasio correctly addressed the situation while 50% think he fumbled it.

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Handling of Winter Snowstorms (NYC Registered Adults)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Handling of School Closings During Winter Snowstorms (NYC Registered Adults)

Six in Ten Agree with de Blasio’s Focus on Public Schools

In contrast with former Mayor Bloomberg’s strong support for charter schools, Mayor de Blasio wants a better balance with public schools.  And, six in ten residents in the city — 60% — approve of that emphasis.  34% disapprove, and 6% are unsure.

Among parents with school children in the city’s public school system, 65% think de Blasio has the correct stance on charter schools.  31% disagree, and 4% are unsure.

Race is a factor.  67% of Latinos and 64% of African Americans agree that de Blasio should emphasize public schools over charter schools.  This compares with 49% of whites in the city who say the same.  By borough, 64% in Queens and Staten Island, 61% of those in Brooklyn, and 60% of residents in the Bronx agree with de Blasio’s focus on public schools.  51% of Manhattan adults share this opinion.

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Emphasis on Public Schools (NYC Adults)

52% Have Positive View of Chirlane McCray

A majority of registered voters — 52% — like Mayor de Blasio’s wife, Chirlane McCray.  19% have an unfavorable impression of her, and 29% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist last reported this question in December, 46% thought well of McCray, 8% had a lesser view of her, and 45% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Chirlane McCray Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

City’s Compass Pointing in the Right Direction, Says Majority

53% of voters think New York City is moving in the right direction.  42% think it is moving in the wrong one, and 5% are unsure.  In December, 51% thought the city was on course.  36% believed it was off track, and 13% were unsure.

However, there has been a shift in the specific groups who think the city is on the right path.  There has been an increase in the proportion of African American voters who say the city is on course.  60% have this view now compared with 49% in December.  There has been a slight decline among white voters.  45% say the Big Apple is on track while a slim majority — 52% — did so in that previous survey.  Among Latinos, there is little change.  Half — 50% — currently say New York City is on track while 47% had this opinion three months ago.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

12/23: Out with the Old and In with the New… NYC Voters Hopeful about de Blasio Administration, Change for the Better on the Way

December 23, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

When New York City Mayor-elect Bill de Blasio is sworn into office on January 1st, he will be greeted with great expectations from voters.  About two-thirds of registered voters in the city — 66% — are hopeful about de Blasio becoming the next mayor of New York City.  14% are content while 11% are disappointed.  Two percent describe themselves as angry, and 7% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete December 23, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Coming off a huge election victory, expectations are sky high for what Bill de Blasio will do for the city as mayor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, not all New Yorkers think that accomplishing his goals will be a slam dunk.”

By party, 72% of Democrats are hopeful about the incoming de Blasio administration.  However, Republicans citywide divide.  43% are hopeful while 40% are disappointed.  Nearly two-thirds of non-enrolled voters — 64% — are optimistic about de Blasio becoming mayor.

Regardless of borough, at least six in ten voters have a positive feeling about de Blasio assuming the role of mayor.  Voters in Brooklyn — 71% — are the most hopeful.  67% of those in Manhattan, 64% of those in the Bronx, and 62% of voters in Queens and Staten Island share this emotion.

How will de Blasio impact New York City?  Nearly six in ten — 58% — think he will change the Big Apple for the better.  14% believe he will make the city worse while 13% report he will not change New York City at all.  15% are unsure.

There is a partisan divide.  While 65% of Democrats say de Blasio will improve New York City, 49% of Republicans think he will make it worse.  55% of non-enrolled voters say de Blasio will have a positive impact on New York City.

There are also differences by race and borough.  More than seven in ten African American voters — 72% — think de Blasio will change the city for the better.  65% of Latino voters citywide agree.  However, 49% of white voters in New York City believe he will improve the Big Apple.

Looking at borough, 65% of voters in Brooklyn believe de Blasio will change New York City for the better.  This compares with 63% in the Bronx and 56% in Manhattan who say the same.  In Queens and Staten Island, 51% think de Blasio will positively affect New York City.

Table: Emotion which Best Describes Feeling about Bill de Blasio becoming NYC Mayor (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: de Blasio’s Impact on NYC (NYC Registered Voters)

Majority with Positive Image of de Blasio

56% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable impression of Mayor-elect de Blasio.  20% have an unfavorable view of him, and 23% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Despite de Blasio’s strong favorable rating, it’s a long way from the campaign trail to City Hall.  There has been a decline in the proportion of voters who have a favorable opinion of de Blasio and an increase in the proportion of those who have yet to form an opinion of the soon-to-be-mayor.  When the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in November, just before Election Day, more than six in ten voters — 64% — thought favorably of de Blasio.  26% had a lesser impression of him, and only 10% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate de Blasio.

When it comes to de Blasio’s political ideology, 61% of voters believe it is about right.  21% think he is too liberal while only 4% say he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.  In November, 56% of voters described de Blasio’s ideology as about right.  29% thought he was too liberal, and 4% said he was too conservative.  11%, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Getting to Know You… Next First Lady of NYC Little-Known to Many Voters 

Bill de Blasio’s wife, Chirlane McCray, needs to introduce herself to the New York City electorate.  While 46% of voters have a favorable impression of McCray, 45% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Eight percent have a negative opinion of McCray.

Table: Chirlane McCray Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track, Says Majority

51% of New York City voters think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  36% believe it is traveling in the wrong one, and 13% are unsure.  When the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in November, 49% reported the city was on the right course while 42% said it was not.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Exit Center Stage… Bloomberg Leaves Office with 49% Approval Rating 

As Mayor Michael Bloomberg prepares to leave office after 12 years in City Hall, 49% approve of his job performance.  This includes 15% who say he is doing an excellent one, and 34% who report he is doing a good one.  30% rate Bloomberg’s performance as fair while 17% think he is performing poorly.  Four percent are unsure.

In the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s November survey, 47% approved of Bloomberg’s job performance.  29% believed his performance was average while 20% said he fell short.  Three percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg’s Lasting Legacy 

How will Mayor Michael Bloomberg be remembered?  50% will recall his time in office positively.  Included here are 15% who describe Bloomberg as one of the city’s best mayors and 35% who call him an above average mayor.  31% will remember him as an average mayor while 10% will recall him as a below average one.  Eight percent think Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

“Overall, after three terms, New Yorkers think Mayor Bloomberg has done a decent job,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For most New Yorkers, he has been a commendable mayor.”

When this question was last reported in February, 44% thought Bloomberg’s tenure would be remembered fondly.  37% said his legacy would be an average one while 12% believed Bloomberg would be considered a below average mayor.  Eight percent of voters, at that time, said Bloomberg would be recalled as one of the city’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Nature of the Sample

How the Survey was Conducted

10/11: De Blasio Leads Lhota by 44 Percentage Points in NYC Mayor’s Race

October 11, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With just a little more than three weeks until Election Day, Democrat Bill de Blasio outpaces his Republican opponent, Joe Lhota, 67% to 23%, among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has the support of 2%.  One percent supports another candidate while 7% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“This is a very lopsided contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Joe Lhota hasn’t gotten any traction to offset the Democratic registration advantage in the city.”

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, de Blasio — 65% — was ahead of Lhota — 22% — by 43 percentage points among likely voters.  Carrion received the support of 3%.  One percent backed another candidate, and 9%, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

  • Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 82% support de Blasio while 13% are for Lhota.  One percent supports Carrion.  Last month, 77% of Democrats backed de Blasio.  13% were behind Lhota, and 1% supported Carrion.
  • Looking at likely Republican voters, 69% back Lhota.  16% are for de Blasio, and 1% supports Carrion.  In September’s survey, 63% of Republicans were for Lhota compared with 25% for de Blasio.  Five percent were behind Carrion.
  • Among non-enrolled voters, de Blasio has the backing of 58%.  Lhota garners 21%, and Carrion has 7%.  In that previous survey, half of non-enrolled voters likely to cast a ballot — 50% — supported de Blasio compared with 24% for Lhota and 9% for Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio has a wide lead over Lhota.  Among white voters who are likely to participate on Election Day, 57% support de Blasio while 33% are for Lhota.  In September, 50% of whites backed de Blasio while Lhota had the support of 37%.  Among African American voters, de Blasio has 89% to 4% for Lhota.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 86% of African American voters likely to cast a ballot supported de Blasio compared with 3% for Lhota.  De Blasio has a 62 percentage point advantage over Lhota among Latinos who are likely to vote.  Here, de Blasio receives 76% compared with 14% for Lhota.  Last month, 74% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day were for de Blasio while 11% backed Lhota.

How strongly do likely voters with a candidate preference support their choice for mayor?  54% strongly support their pick while 36% are somewhat behind their candidate.  Nine percent might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  33% were somewhat behind their pick while 13% said they might change their minds before Election Day.  One percent, at that time, was unsure.

Among likely voters who are for de Blasio, 56% strongly support him.  This compares with 49% of Lhota’s backers who are firmly committed to him.  This is little changed from September when 58% of de Blasio’s backers said they strongly supported him while 47% of Lhota’s supporters expressed the same level of support for him.

Looking at registered voters, de Blasio — 66% — outdistances Lhota — 20% — by 46 percentage points.  Carrion has the support of 3% while 2% back another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.  Last month, 63% of registered voters backed de Blasio while 20% supported Lhota.  Four percent were for Carrion, and 2% backed another candidate.  12% were undecided.

What does the contest for mayor look like when all fifteen candidates on the ballot are taken into account?  Little changes.  Among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 64% support de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  Jack Hidary and Michael Greys each receives 1%.  Erick Salgado, Anthony Gronowicz, James McMillian, Michael Sanchez, Randy Credico, Dan Fein, Joseph Melaragno, Sam Sloan, Michael Dilger, and Carl Person each garners less than one percent of the vote.  One percent mentions another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor Including All Fifteen Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

65% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio while 23% have an unfavorable one.  12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In September, 65% thought highly of de Blasio while 19% had an unfavorable view of him.  16%, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

It’s a different story when it comes to Lhota.  43% have an unfavorable impression of the candidate.  32% have a positive view of him, and a notable 25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  There has been little change on this question since September when 41% had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota, and 29% said they had a favorable one.  Three in ten — 30% — had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Tops Lhota on Issues and Qualities

How do de Blasio and Lhota stack up when it comes to campaign issues and candidate qualities?  Among registered voters in New York City:

  • Two out of three — 67% — think de Blasio is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure.  In September, 63% had this impression of de Blasio while 20% said Lhota could make New York City more affordable.  17% were unsure.
  • When it comes to improving the city’s public schools, about two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — say de Blasio is the better candidate for the job.  This compares with 19% who think Lhota is better able to improve education in the city.  16% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question.  Last month, 65% reported de Blasio was the candidate with the skills to improve education while 18% had this view of Lhota.  18%, at that time, were unsure.
  • 63% of registered voters think de Blasio can better unite the city.  This compares with 21% who think Lhota can bring New Yorkers together.  16% are unsure.  In that previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 67% of voters considered de Blasio to be the candidate who could better unite the city.  19% thought Lhota was the candidate to do so, and 14% were unsure.
  • There has also been little change on whether de Blasio or Lhota has the experience to manage the city.  53% believe de Blasio is the more seasoned candidate while 29% think Lhota has the experience to take the city’s helm.  18% are unsure.  Last month, a majority — 54% — reported de Blasio had the experience to be mayor compared with 31% who had this impression of Lhota.  15%, then, were unsure.
  • A majority of voters — 52% — say de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 31% say Lhota is more likely to do so.  17% are unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who say de Blasio will improve safety in the city.  Last month, 44% said de Blasio was more likely to reduce crime.  This compares with 35% who had this opinion of Lhota.  21%, at the time, were unsure.
  • When it comes to the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances, 49% think de Blasio is more capable.  This compares with 33% who say Lhota has the advantage on this issue.  19% are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 45% thought de Blasio was the better candidate to deal with the city’s finances while 35% had this opinion of Lhota.  20% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

The Ideologies of the Candidates 

Among registered voters in New York City, 59% report de Blasio’s political ideology is in step.  This compares with 24% who think he is too liberal and 3% who believe he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.

In September, 59% of registered voters said de Blasio’s ideology was about right.  22% reported he was too liberal while 5% thought he was too conservative.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Among registered voters, 35% say Lhota’s political ideology is in line.  31% report he is too conservative, and 8% believe he is too liberal.  26% are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 32% of voters thought Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while 7% reported he was too liberal.  29%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio’s Past Experiences in Cuba and Nicaragua Matter Little

Information surfaced that de Blasio went to Cuba on his honeymoon and supported the Sandinistas in Nicaragua.  Has this knowledge impacted voters’ impressions of de Blasio?  More than seven in ten registered voters — 72% — say it makes no difference to them.  16% report it makes them less likely to vote for de Blasio while 8% think it makes them more likely to vote for him.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of de Blasio’s Time in Cuba and Nicaragua on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Divide about Lhota and National GOP

On most issues, 40% of registered voters think Lhota is not independent from the national Republican Party.  36% believe he is independent from the GOP, and 24% are unsure where he stands on most issues.

Among those who believe Lhota’s stance on the issues is tied to the national Republican Party, 39% are less likely to support him, and 54% say it doesn’t matter.  Looking at those who say Lhota is independent from the national GOP platform, 42% would be more likely to vote for him, and 51% say it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Impact of Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing Does Little to Help Lhota’s Chances

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani stumped for Lhota during the primary, but his nod does not bolster Lhota’s chances in the general election.  While 31% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to support Lhota, 47% report it makes them less likely to do so.  18% think it makes no difference to their vote, and 3% are unsure.

Last month, 29% reported Giuliani’s support made them more likely to vote for Lhota.  A majority — 51% — said it made them less likely to vote for him, and 15% thought Giuliani’s endorsement made no difference to their vote.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

A partisan divide exists.  Most Republicans — 72% — say a Giuliani endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota while 8% report it makes them less inclined to support him.  Among Democrats, 57% think Giuliani’s backing makes them less likely to cast their ballot for Lhota.  22% disagree and believe it will make them more likely to do so.  There is little consensus among non-enrolled voters citywide.  35% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota, and 42% report it makes them less likely to vote for him.  20% believe it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Departure from Bloomberg Era Policies Desired… Bloomberg Rating Steady 

About two-thirds of registered voters in New York City — 66% — want to move the city in a different direction from the Bloomberg years.  29%, however, want the next mayor to continue the policies of Mayor Bloomberg.  Six percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 68% wanted the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 25% wanted him to stay the course.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

When it comes to the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office, 45% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who say the mayor is doing an excellent job and 33% who report he is doing a good one.  34% rate his performance as fair while 18% think he is performing poorly.  Two percent are unsure.

Last month, a similar 42% gave Bloomberg kudos.  33% gave him average grades while 22% thought he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)  

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track?

When it comes to the direction of New York City, 46% of registered voters believe it is moving in the right direction, and 46% think it is traveling in the wrong one.  Eight percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, voters also divided.  46% reported the city was on the right road, and 43% said it was on the wrong track.  11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

9/9: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Do Americans think Syria is a threat to their national security?  Do they support military involvement in Syria, and do Americans want Congress to approve the president’s request?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

 

8/16: Tight Race in Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor… Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

August 16, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With less than a month to go until Primary Day, Democrats Christine Quinn and Bill de Blasio are locked in a tight race in their pursuit of the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor.  Bill Thompson is currently in third.  Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, just eight percentage points separate these three candidates, and only six percentage points are between them among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.  The scandal-ridden Anthony Weiner trails in fourth place.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 21% Bill de Blasio
  • 16% Bill Thompson
  • 12% Anthony Weiner
  •   6% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   3% Other
  • 15% Undecided

Click Here for Complete August 16, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“It’s been a topsy-turvy summer, and many Democratic voters are still waiting to be convinced,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although voters have yet to sort things out, Bill de Blasio has shown the biggest gain in the last couple of weeks.”

It was a very different contest just three weeks ago when the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question on July 25th.  At that time, Quinn — 25% — outpaced Weiner — 16% — by nine percentage points among New York City Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  De Blasio and Thompson each received the support of 14% of the Democratic electorate.  At that time, 7% backed John Liu while Erick Salgado had 2%.  One percent supported Sal Albanese, 2% were for another candidate, and 19% were undecided.

Where Are Top-Tier Candidates’ Strengths?

  • Quinn does better among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 33%, live in Manhattan — 30%, or who approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office — 29%.  She also does well among Democrats who are Catholic — 28% or Latino — 27%.
  • De Blasio does well among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 36%, who are Jewish — 30%, who live in Manhattan — 27%, or who earn $50,000 or more annually — 27%.  De Blasio has improved his standing among Democrats who are African American.  He currently receives the support of 20% of African American Democrats compared with 10% in the last poll.
  • Thompson does better among Democrats who are African American — 22%, but generally receives similar support from most other groups.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, de Blasio and Quinn each receive 24%.  18% back Thompson.  Weiner has the support of 11% of Democrats who are likely to cast a ballot while 5% are behind Liu.  Two percent are for Salgado, and 1% backs Albanese.  Credico has the support of 1%, and Grimaldi receives less than one percent.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

When it comes to intensity of support, a plurality of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference — 43% — say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  37% are somewhat committed to their pick while 17% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 42% said they were firmly committed to their candidate.  32% were somewhat behind their choice while 23% thought they might change their mind before casting their ballot.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

48% of de Blasio’s supporters say they will not waiver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 41% of New York City Democrats who rally for Thompson and 35% of those who are for Quinn.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Lhota Leads Catsimatidis for GOP Nod

Looking at the contest for the Republican nomination for mayor, Joe Lhota continues to have the advantage over John Catsimatidis.  George McDonald trails his GOP opponents by double-digits.  However, three in ten Republicans in New York City have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small number of registered Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 33% Joe Lhota
  • 22% John Catsimatidis
  • 12% George McDonald
  •   2% Other
  • 30% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, Lhota — 28% — led Catsimatidis — 21% — by 7 percentage points among New York City Republicans, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  10% backed George McDonald, and 1% were for another candidate.  40% were undecided.

How strongly committed are Republicans to their choice of candidate?  43% of those with a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice.  34% are somewhat behind their pick while 17% might change their mind.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Republican Mayoralty Candidate (NYC Republicans with a Candidate Preference)

No Runaway in Runoff Races… But de Blasio has Edge 

If none of the candidates receive 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary for mayor, a runoff for the Democratic nomination will be held.  How would the top-tier candidates fare in such a situation?

Among New York City Democrats:

  • When de Blasio and Quinn face off, de Blasio receives the support of 44% of registered Democrats compared with 42% for Quinn.  14% are undecided.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s June poll, Quinn — 47% — outpaced de Blasio — 33% — by 14 percentage points.  21% were undecided. Among likely Democratic voters, 47% are currently for de Blasio compared with 40% for Quinn.  12% are undecided.
  • Thompson — 44% — and Quinn — 43% — are also neck and neck among registered Democrats.  12% are undecided.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question nearly two months ago, Quinn received the support of 42% of Democrats compared with 40% for Thompson.  18%, at the time, were undecided.  Looking at likely Democratic voters this time, Thompson garners 47% to 42% for Quinn.  11% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives 44% compared with 36% for Thompson in a runoff among registered Democrats.  20% are undecided.  Among likely Democratic voters in this   survey, 47% are for de Blasio while 36% back Thompson.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Thompson vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Boost for de Blasio… Weiner’s Favorability at New Low

A majority of registered Democrats citywide view the top-tier Democratic candidates running for mayor positively.  This includes de Blasio who enjoys a bump in his positive rating.  Anthony Weiner’s favorability rating has sunk to an all-time low.

  • Nearly six in ten New York City Democrats — 59% — have a positive impression of de Blasio while 14% have an unfavorable view of the candidate.  26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, 52% thought highly of de Blasio.  19% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 56% of registererd Democrats have a favorable view of Thompson.  18% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In June, 60% had a positive opinion of Thompson, and 16% had an unfavorable impression of him.  25%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of registered Democrats — 54% — has a favorable impression of Quinn.  32% have an unfavorable opinion of her while 13% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In June, 57% thought well of Quinn, 29% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • When it comes to Weiner, 63% of registered Democrats citywide have an unfavorable opinion of him.  26% think well of him while 11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 55% had an unfavorable opinion of Weiner.  30% had a positive impression of the candidate, and 15% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

 

Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

In the Democratic primary for New York City comptroller, Eliot Spitzer receives majority support — 53% — among New York City registered Democrats including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  This compares with 34% for Scott Stringer.  One percent is for another candidate, and 11% are undecided.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 49% backed Spitzer, and 32% were for Stringer.  Two percent backed another candidate, and 17% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 54% are behind Spitzer while 36% are for Stringer.  One percent backs another candidate, and 9% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer — 48% — led Stringer — 36% — by 12 percentage points among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

48% of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference for comptroller strongly support their choice.  37% are somewhat committed to their candidate while 14% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

More registered Democrats today are strongly committed to their candidate selection for comptroller.  When this question was last reported on July 11th, 39% of Democrats with a candidate preference said they were firmly committed to their choice, and 36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick.  22% thought they might vote differently, and 2% were unsure.

A majority of Spitzer’s supporters — 51% — say they are firmly committed to their candidate.  This compares with 43% of Stringer’s backers who say the same.  There has been a notable increase in the proportion of Democrats who strongly support Stringer.  In early July, 30% of Stringer’s supporters were firmly committed to him.  This compares with 47% of those who firmly backed Spitzer at that time.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Comptroller Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Majority of Democrats Are Undecided in Public Advocate Race 

In the contest for the Democratic nomination for New York City’s public advocate, 51% of registered Democrats are undecided about which candidate to support.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 16% Letitia James
  • 12% Catherine Guerriero
  •   9% Daniel Squadron
  •   3% Reshma Saujani
  •   2% Sidique Wai
  •   7% Other
  • 51% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in its June 26th poll, James received the support of 17% of New York City registered Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  16% supported Guerriero.  Eight percent backed Squadron, and 4% were for Saujani.  Less than one percent supported another candidate, and 54% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 16% support James. Guerriero and Squadron each receives the backing of 12%.  Saujani has 3%, and 2% are for Wai.  Six percent want to elect another candidate, and 49% are undecided.

Among registered Democrats with a candidate preference for public advocate, 38% are strongly committed to their candidate.  34% somewhat back their choice while 25% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

In June, 34% strongly supported their candidate.  43% were somewhat behind their choice for public advocate while 20% reported they might change their mind.  Two percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

44% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 11% who say he is doing an excellent job and 33% who think he is doing a good one.  31% rate his performance as fair while 21% report he is doing poorly in office.  Five percent are unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 11th, similar proportions held these views.  46% said Bloomberg was doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  28% gave him fair grades while 21% believed his performance fell short.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)


 

A City on Track?

46% of registered voters in the Big Apple believe New York City is moving in the right direction.  40% think it is traveling in the wrong direction, and 14% are unsure.  This is the first time since September 2011 that the proportion of voters citywide who think the city is on the right course has fallen below 50%.  At that time, 42% said the city was on track, 52% reported it was off course, and 6% were unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in July, a slim majority of voters — 51% — said the city was moving in the right direction.  35% believed it needed a new course, and 14% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

6/27: On the Next Mayor’s Agenda: Voters Want Jobs and Education to be Focus

Nearly one in four registered voters in New York City — 23% — say the top concern of the next mayor should be jobs.  One in five — 20% — believes education should top his or her list of priorities, and 12% say economic development is the key.

Click Here for Complete June 27, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll*

“The economy is top of mind for New York City voters and is sure to play a pivotal role in this fall’s general election,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, the city’s next mayor will also have to face voters’ persistent questions about the state of New York City’s public schools.”

What are the other issues on voters’ minds?  Eight percent think housing should be the next mayor’s focus while security from terrorism is the priority for 7%.  Six percent believe taxes are the most important while the same proportion — 6% — wants the next mayor to focus on crime.

 Other concerns include poverty — 5% — transportation — 2% — and race relations — 2%.  Eight percent of registered voters in New York City want the next mayor to focus on something entirely different.

When Marist last reported this question in February, education — 26% — and jobs — 26% — were voters’ leading concerns.  Economic development followed with 17%.  Housing topped the list for 7% of voters while 6% put crime at the top of the next mayor’s agenda.  Five percent were concerned about taxes while the same proportion — 5% — thought poverty should be the key issue facing City Hall.  Four percent believed security from terrorism should be the focus.  Transportation — 2% — and race relations — 1% — were also reported to be important.  One percent thought another issue should be the next mayor’s priority.

Table: Priority for the Next Mayor (NYC Registered Voters)

Majority Wants Kelly to Remain City’s Top Cop…Nearly Half Support Stop and Frisk

 54% of registered voters in the Big Apple want the next mayor to keep Ray Kelly on as Police Commissioner.  34% think someone else should be appointed, and 13% are unsure.

Regardless of party, at least a majority wants to see Kelly stay on the job.  However, Republicans — 72% — are more likely than non-enrolled voters — 52% — and Democrats — 51% — to express this opinion.

By race, nearly two-thirds of white voters — 64% — would like Kelly to keep his position.  However, nearly half of African American voters — 49% — want someone else to be appointed.  Latino voters divide.  45% say Kelly should be reappointed while 41% believe he should not be.

When it comes to the controversial “stop and frisk” policy, nearly half of registered voters — 49% — want the next mayor to continue the procedure.  41% do not want the policy to continue, and 10% are unsure.

Here, too, there is a racial divide.  While 59% of white voters believe the policy should be continued, 58% of African American voters think it should be discontinued.  Latino voters divide.  46% report “stop and frisk” should be stopped while 42% say the next mayor should continue the policy.

Table: Should the Next Mayor Reappoint Ray Kelly? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Should the Next Mayor Continue Stop and Frisk (NYC Registered Voters)

City’s Affordability Not in Mayor’s Control, Says Nearly Six in Ten

 Nearly six in ten registered voters in New York City — 58% — believe making the city more affordable is beyond the mayor’s control.  About one-third — 33% — think the next mayor will be able to make the Big Apple more affordable.  Nine percent are unsure.

Do New York City residents think the city is affordable?  Just 17% believe the cost of living for the average family is affordable.  This includes 1% who says New York City is very affordable and 16% who report it is affordable.  82% think the city is not very affordable — 53% — or not affordable at all — 29%.

Will residents retain their New York City address?  More than seven in ten residents — 72% — intend to stay within the city’s limits.  20%, however, say they plan to move someplace else in the next five years.  Eight percent are unsure.

Table: Will the Next Mayor Make New York City More Affordable? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: The Cost of Living in New York City (NYC Adults)

Table: Plan to Move Out of New York City? (NYC Adults)

 Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Steady State

 As Mayor Bloomberg nears the end of his term, how do voters think he is doing in office?  49% of registered voters in the city give him a thumbs-up.  This includes 11% who think the mayor is doing an excellent job and 38% who believe he is doing a good one.  31% bestow fair marks on Bloomberg while 17% say his performance is poor.  Three percent are unsure.

In Marist’s May survey, similar proportions of voters shared these views.  48% gave Bloomberg high marks while 30% reported he was doing an average job.  19% thought he fell short, and 3%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 A City on Track, Says Majority

 52% of registered voters in New York City think things in New York City are going in the right direction.  37%, though, believe the city is moving in the wrong direction.  11% are unsure.

There has been no change on this question since May when the same proportions of voters held these views.  52% reported the Big Apple was on the right path while 37% believed it needed a course correction.  11%, then, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

6/26: Weiner Surpasses Quinn among NYC Dems…Lhota Tops GOP Field in Quest for NYC Mayoralty

A month after former Congressman Anthony Weiner announced his candidacy for New York City Mayor, Weiner has moved ahead of his competitors.  He now edges New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn by five percentage points in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Anthony Weiner
  • 20% Christine Quinn
  • 13% Bill Thompson
  • 10% Bill de Blasio
  •   8% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Other
  • 18% Undecided

Click Here for Complete June 26, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll*

“The Weiner candidacy has scrambled the contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, nearly one in five Democrats are undecided, and almost two-thirds are not firmly committed to a candidate which makes for a lot of persuadable voters.”

The two frontrunners have traded places.  In May, shortly after Weiner announced his candidacy, 24% of Democrats in New York City supported Quinn while Weiner received the support of 19%.  Bill de Blasio garnered 12%, followed closely by Thompson with 11%.  Eight percent backed Liu while 1% supported Albanese.  Less than 1% backed Salgado while 1% was behind another candidate.  23% of New York City Democrats were undecided.

By borough:

  • In Queens and Staten Island, Weiner — 30% — leads Quinn — 20%.
  • In Brooklyn, Weiner — 23% — also has the advantage over Quinn — 16%.
  • In the Bronx, both Weiner and Quinn each receive the support of 21%.
  • In Manhattan, Quinn — 27% — edges Weiner — 23%.

By gender:

  • While Weiner — 29% — is ahead of Quinn — 19% — among men who are Democrats, Weiner — 22% — and Quinn — 21% — are in a close contest among women.

How strongly do New York City Democrats with a candidate preference support their choice?  36% are firmly committed to their pick.  38% are somewhat in their candidate’s camp while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.  There has been little change on this question since last month when 39% expressed strong support for their candidate.  35%, at that time, were somewhat committed to their pick while 25% said they could change their minds.  Two percent were unsure.

When it comes to the intensity of support for the two frontrunners, Weiner still has the edge.  45% of Democrats who back the former Congressman say they are firmly committed to him while 34% of those who are for Quinn proffer the same level of support.  In Marist’s previous survey, 43% of candidate Weiner’s supporters and 30% of candidate Quinn’s backers vowed not to waver in their level of commitment.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Weiner has the backing of 25%.  Quinn runs second with 21% while 14% are for Thompson.  13% supports de Blasio while Liu receives 8%.  Two percent are in Salgado’s camp while 1% supports Albanese.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 16% are undecided.

Looking at the Republican contest, Joe Lhota is ahead of his closest competitor, John Catsimatidis, by seven percentage points.  George McDonald is in third.  A notable 40% citywide have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small proportion of Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 28% Joe Lhota
  • 21% John Catsimatidis
  • 10% George McDonald
  •   1% Other
  • 40% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, Lhota — 20% — outpaced George McDonald, by 12 percentage points.  At that time, 8% of Republicans citywide supported McDonald.  Catsimatidis received the support of 5% of the vote while Tom Allon — 4% — Adolfo Carrion — 3% — and A.R. Bernard — 2% — rounded out the field.  Three percent, then, supported another candidate, and a majority — 55% — was undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Quinn and Weiner in Tight Race in Runoff …Thompson Runs Competitively

If none of the Democratic candidates receives 40% of the vote, how would they fare in a runoff?  When Quinn — 44% — and Weiner — 42% — face off, they vie for the lead.  14% of New York City Democrats are undecided.

Weiner has gained support during the last month.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 48% of New York City Democrats backed Quinn while 33% supported Weiner.  Almost one in five — 18% — was undecided.

Among New York City Democrats:

  • Thompson has caught up to Quinn.  In a runoff scenario, Quinn — 42% — and Thompson — 40% — are now neck and neck.  18% are undecided.  In May, Quinn — 44% — led Thompson — 34% — by 10 percentage points.  22% were undecided.
  • Against de Blasio, Quinn has 47% compared with 33% for de Blasio.  More than one in five Democrats — 21% — is undecided.  There has been little change on this question.  In Marist’s previous survey, Quinn — 48% — outdistanced de Blasio — 30%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • In a runoff against Liu, Quinn has the support of 49% while Liu garners 32%.  19% are undecided.  In May, a majority of Democrats — 53% — backed Quinn against Liu — 25%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • Thompson — 42% — and Weiner — 41% — are competitive in this hypothetical runoff contest.  18% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 47% — leads Liu — 35% — among New York City Democrats.  19% are undecided.
  • In a runoff scenario against de Blasio, 44% are for Weiner while 39% are for de Blasio.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Sharpton Endorsement Would Do Little to Boost Electoral Chances

If Reverend Al Sharpton were to endorse one of the Democratic candidates for mayor, just 25% of Democrats citywide say they would be more likely to vote for that candidate.  However, a plurality — 45% — would be less likely to do so.  One in five — 20% — reports such an endorsement would make no difference to their vote.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.

There are racial differences.  Almost four in ten African American Democrats — 39% — would be more likely to support a candidate with Reverend Sharpton’s endorsement.  27% would be less likely to vote for such a candidate, and 22% report it would make no difference to their vote.  Among white Democrats, a majority — 52% — would be less inclined to back a candidate with Mr. Sharpton’s backing.  17% would be more likely to do so, and 23% say it would not impact their vote.  Nearly half of Latino Democrats — 49% — would be less likely to support a candidate with Sharpton’s endorsement.  26% would be more likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 14% report it would make no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Sharpton Endorsement

Most Dems Still Viewed Positively, But…

Most of the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination are viewed favorably by those in their party.  While Christine Quinn’s favorability rating remains strong, it continues to decline.  Weiner and Thompson, in contrast, currently enjoy a boost in their favorability ratings.

  • Six in ten Democrats in New York City — 60% — have a good impression of Thompson while 16% do not.  25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Thompson’s favorability rating is up from last month when 52% of Democrats thought well of him.  17% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Quinn, 57% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of her while 29% have an unfavorable view of her.  14% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Quinn’s positive rating has dipped slightly while her negative rating has inched up.  In May, six in ten Democrats — 60% — had a favorable view of Quinn.  26% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • A majority of Democrats — 52% — view Weiner well while 36% do not.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Democrats divided in May when 44% had a favorable opinion of Weiner, 44% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 12% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — have a favorable impression of Bill de Blasio.  19% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, half of Democrats in the city — 50% — had a positive view of de Blasio while 19% had a negative one.  30% had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A plurality of Democrats — 47% — have a favorable opinion of Liu.  31% have a lesser view of the candidate, and more than one in five — 22% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  These findings are similar to those reported in May when 45% of Democrats had a positive impression of the candidate, 31% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Democrats’ impressions of Salgado, the candidate has much still to do to become known among the city’s Democrats.  Nearly six in ten Democrats — 58% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Just 21% have a positive opinion of him while the same proportion — 21% — has an unfavorable one.  Last month, a similar 60% could not offer an opinion of Salgado.  13% thought well of him while 27% had an unfavorable view of the candidate.
  • Albanese also needs to make himself better known to New York City Democrats.  54% have either never heard of Albanese or are unsure how to rate him.  21% have a positive impression of him while 25% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  This is little changed from Marist’s May survey when 55% had either never heard of Albanese or were unsure how to rate him.  18%, then, thought well of Albanese while 26% had an unfavorable view of him.

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Erick Salgado Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Getting to Know the GOP Hopefuls

On the GOP side, more Republicans in New York City have a positive opinion of Joe Lhota.  Catsimatidis has also experienced a bump in his favorability rating, but the candidate still needs to become better acquainted with his party’s faithful.  McDonald also needs to make inroads with his fellow Republicans.

  • A slim majority of Republicans — 51% — have a favorable impression of Lhota.  11% have an unfavorable one, and 38% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s February survey, only 42% had a positive opinion of Lhota.  12% had a lesser view of him, and 46% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 38% think well of Catsimatidis.  17% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 45% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Slightly more Republicans have a positive view of Catsimatidis than did earlier this year.  When Marist last reported this question in February, a majority — 56% — had yet to form an opinion of Catsimatidis.  Three in ten — 30% — gave him a favorable rating while 14% had an unfavorable impression of him.
  • McDonald needs to make his presence known to New York City Republicans.  Nearly seven in ten Republicans — 68% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  17% think well of McDonald while 15% do not.  In February, almost two-thirds — 65% — had either never heard of the candidate or were unsure how to rate him.  18% had a positive impression of the candidate while 17% had an unfavorable one.

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Democrats Outdistance Republicans by More than Two-to-One

Regardless of who the specific candidates will be in this fall’s general election, the Democrat outpaces the Republican.  If the Democratic candidate were pitted against Joe Lhota and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • 52% of registered voters support Quinn.  15% are for Lhota, and 10% are for Carrion.  22% are undecided.  When Marist last reported this question in February, nearly six in ten voters — 59% — backed Quinn against Lhota — 17% — and Carrion — 8%.  17% were undecided.
  • 52% support de Blasio while 15% are for Lhota.  Six percent back Carrion, and 28% are undecided.
  • Nearly half of voters — 49% — support Thompson.  14% back Lhota, and 9% are for Carrion.  Close to three in ten — 28% — are undecided.
  • 49% are for Liu while Lhota receives 16%, and Carrion garners 8%.  27% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 46% — outpaces Lhota — 17% — by 29 percentage points.  Here, Carrion receives the support of 10%.  27% are undecided.

 If the Democratic candidate were up against John Catsimatidis and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • Weiner — 51% — outpaces Catsimatidis — 14% — and Carrion — 10%.  One in four — 25% — is undecided.
  • Thompson — 49% — leads Catsimatidis — 15%.  Carrion receives the support of 8%, and 28% are undecided.
  • A plurality of registered voters — 47% — back Quinn when matched against Catsimatidis — 16%.  Nine percent support Carrion, and 27% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives the backing of 44%.  Catsimatidis achieves 15%, and Carrion has the support of 10%.  31% are undecided.
  • Four in ten registered voters — 40% — back Liu when against Catsimatidis — 18% — and Carrion — 11%.  31% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — de Blasio/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Nearly Half of Voters Would Consider Voting for Weiner

Despite the political scars Weiner suffered following the sexting scandal, 49% of registered voters in New York City now say they would consider voting for the embattled politician.  45% would not think about casting their ballot for him, and 6% are unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who report they would consider voting for Weiner.  When NBC New York/Marist last reported this question in April, a majority of voters citywide — 52% — would not entertain the idea of supporting Weiner.  40% said they would consider it, and 8% were unsure.

Democrats and non-enrolled voters make the difference.  A majority of Democrats — 53% — say they would cast their ballot for Weiner.  This compares with 46% in April.  While non-enrolled voters divide, there has been a 16 percentage point increase in the proportion of these voters who say they might vote for Weiner.  47% now have this opinion compared with 31% two months ago.

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner? (NYC Registered Voters)

Should Bloomberg Keep Endorsement Under Wraps?

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has reported that he has decided who he wants to succeed him as mayor.  However, he has not announced his choice.  Should he?  New York City voters divide.  44% believe he should while 44% think he should not reveal who he supports.  11% are unsure.

By party:

  • A majority of Republican voters — 53% — say Bloomberg should share his decision.
  • Democrats and non-enrolled voters divide.  47% of Democrats say he should keep his choice to himself while 44% think he should announce his decision.
  • Among non-enrolled voters, 44% want to hear Bloomberg’s choice.  This compares with 42% who think he should keep it private.

Table: Should Bloomberg Reveal the Candidate He Wants to Succeed Him? (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing of Lhota Helps for Primary, But …

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani still carries sway among the city’s Republicans.  68% of Republican voters say Giuliani’s support of Joe Lhota makes them more likely to vote for Lhota for mayor.  But, Giuliani’s support does little to bolster Lhota’s chances in a general election.  While 29% of registered voters say Giuliani’s backing will make them more likely to vote for Lhota, 46% report it will make them less likely to do so.  16% say it makes little difference to their vote, and 9% are unsure.

Table: Impact of Giuliani’s Endorsement of Lhota (NYC Registered Voters)

Lackluster Interest in Mayor’s Race

But, does it all matter?  Among registered voters in New York City, 39% say they are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  Included here are 7% who are following the contest very closely and 32% who are watching it closely.  A plurality — 44% — is not following it very closely while 16% are not tracking it at all.

Interest in the mayor’s race is not yet picking up.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 41% said they were following the contest.  This included 12% who were keeping very close tabs on the election and 29% who were following it closely.  43% said they weren’t watching it very closely, and 16% weren’t tracking the contest at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race (NYC Registered Voters)

A Look at the Race for Public Advocate

While Letitia James and Catherine Guerriero are neck in neck for the Democratic nomination for public advocate, a majority of Democrats have yet to choose a candidate.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 17% Letitia James
  • 16% Catherine Guerriero
  •   8% Daniel Squadron
  •   4% Reshma Saujani
  • <1% Other
  • 54% Undecided

The race for public advocate is very fluid.  Among Democrats with a candidate preference, just 34% strongly support their choice.  43% somewhat support their pick, and 20% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

 

6/26: Will the New York City Mayor’s Race Come Down to the Buzzer?

June 26, 2013 by  
Filed under Blog, Featured, Lee Miringoff

For those watching the Bruins/Blackhawks Stanley Cup final the other night or game six of the NBA championship, the lesson learned is to stay in your seat until the very end.  That may also be the case with the NYC Democratic Primary for Mayor.   Nonetheless, the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll shows some interesting dynamics that deserve attention.

caricature of Lee MiringoffAnthony Weiner has weathered the first phase of his return to electoral politics, and is now in front with 25% of Democrats’ support.  His 34% positive rating from last February has now become 52%.  Would Democrats consider voting for Weiner?  In April, his numbers were upside down with 46% saying “yes” but 50% saying “no.”  Now, his numbers are right side up with 53% of Democrats telling us they’d consider voting for Weiner to only 41% who won’t.

And then, there’s the decline in support for Christine Quinn.  She remains popular with  most Democrats.  In fact, her favorable/unfavorable rating is roughly two-to-one positive.  But, it has dropped.  In February, 65% of Democrats rated her favorably to only 17% who had a negative view of her.  Now, her positive rating has fallen to 57%, and her negatives have climbed to 29%.  Not too shabby but she now occupies second place among Democrats.  She’s no longer the frontrunner.

Bill Thompson, who narrowly lost to Bloomberg last time, is in third place currently with 13% of the Democratic vote.  But, he’s a factor to be watched as the field hopes to advance to the runoff.  His positive score has jumped from 52% last month to 60% currently.  In a runoff against either Quinn or Weiner, Thompson is neck-and-neck.

Movement, yes.  But, the race remains wide open with 18% of Democrats saying they are undecided, and only 36% firmly committed to a candidate.  If, as expected, this ends up a low turnout primary, then the ability of a candidate to turn out his or her base will be crucial.  That mobilization is not likely to be evident until the closing weeks of the campaign when voters are paying more attention.  Until then, these political playoffs remain very much an active contest.

 

5/28: Weiner Shows Gains on the Heels of Candidacy Announcement

Former Congressman Anthony Weiner formally declared his candidacy for mayor of New York City last week.  In the first poll since his online video announcement, Weiner places second with the support of 19% of the city’s registered Democrats.   New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn still leads but with only 24% of Democrats’ support, the lowest she has had in this race.

Anthony Weiner

Anthony Weiner

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 19% Anthony Weiner
  • 12% Bill de Blasio
  • 11% Bill Thompson
  •   8% John Liu
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  • <1% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Other
  • 23% Undecided

 Click Here for Complete May 28, 2013 NYC Marist Poll Release and Tables

 “The Democratic primary for mayor remains wide open,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “It is likely to come down to who can punch their ticket for the runoff.”

In April, amid speculation Weiner would enter the race for mayor, he garnered the support of 15% of registered Democrats.  Quinn at that time received 26%, a lead of eleven points.  12%, last month, indicated they would vote for John Liu.  Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson each received 11%.  Sal Albanese had 2%, and 1% mentioned another candidate.  22% were undecided.

The race continues to be fluid although slightly more Democrats are committed to their vote than in April.  39% of Democrats who have a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice, and an additional 35% are somewhat behind their candidate.  25% might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  In April, only 34% strongly supported their choice, 30% somewhat supported their candidate, and 35% reported they might vote differently.  Two percent were unsure.

Intensity of support varies for the two frontrunners.  Among those who support Christine Quinn, 30% are strongly behind her, and 42% somewhat support her. 24% say they might vote differently, and 4% are undecided.  Anthony Weiner’s supporters are a bit stronger in their backing.  43% strongly support him while 38% are somewhat supportive. 17% might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Quinn receives 24% followed by Weiner with 19%, de Blasio with 14%, Thompson with 13%, Liu with 8%, Albanese with 1%, and Salgado with less than 1%.  21% of likely Democrats are undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Quinn Leads Hypothetical Runoffs

If none of the candidates garners 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary, a runoff will be held between the top two vote getting candidates.   Quinn leads in hypothetical runoffs against other Democratic candidates:

  • Quinn garners 48% to 33% for Anthony Weiner. 18% are undecided.
  • Quinn with 48% tops de Blasio with 30%.  22% remain undecided.
  • Quinn has majority support, 53%, against Liu who receives 25%.  22% are undecided.
  • Against Thompson, Quinn receives 44% of Democrats’ support to 34% for Thompson.  22% are undecided

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Majority Willing to Give Weiner a Second Chance, But….

How do registered voters in New York City react to Anthony Weiner’s candidacy when considering the sexting scandal that resulted in his resignation from Congress?  A majority of voters — 53% — say he deserves a second chance.  39% believe Weiner does not have the character to be mayor, and 8% are unsure.  Among Democrats, 59% think he deserves a second chance.  58% of non-enrolled voters feel the same.  However, six in ten Republicans — 61% — believe he does not have the character to be mayor.

But registered Democrats divide when asked about their impressions of Weiner.  44% of Democrats view him favorably, while 44% do not. 12% are unsure.  In April, 45% of the city’s Democrats had a favorable view of Weiner, and 41% had a negative view of him.  15% were unsure at the time.

Table: Anthony Weiner Second Chance (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Most Democratic Candidates for Mayor Viewed Favorably, But Not Well Known

Among the other candidates for the Democratic nomination for mayor, most are seen in a positive light by Democratic voters:

  • Christine Quinn is the most well-known.  She is viewed favorably by 60% of registered Democrats and unfavorably by 26%. 14% are unsure or have never heard of her.  This is relatively unchanged from April when 59% viewed her positively and 23% had a negative impression of her.  18% were unsure how to rate her or hadn’t heard of her.
  • Bill Thompson receives a positive rating from 52% of Democrats compared with 17% who have a negative view of him.  About three out of ten Democrats, 31%, are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  In April, 43% of Democrats viewed Thompson favorably while 21% did not.  36% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • Bill de Blasio is viewed favorably by 50% of registered Democrats and unfavorably by 19%.  30% of registered Democrats are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last month, 42% of New York City Democrats viewed him positively, and 23% viewed him negatively.  35%, at that time, were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • 45% of registered Democrats give John Liu a positive rating.  31% have a negative impression of him, and 24% are unsure how to rate him or haven’t heard of him.  In April, 40% viewed him favorably, and 32% viewed him unfavorably.  28% were unsure how to rate him or hadn’t heard of Liu.
  • Sal Albanese remains relatively unknown.  18% of Democrats have a positive impression of him, and 26% view him negatively.  A majority — 55% — are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last month, 18% had a favorable impression of him, and 27% viewed him unfavorably. 55% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • Erick Salgado is the least known candidate in the Democratic field.  60% of registered Democrats are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  13% of Democrats have a positive impression of him while 27% do not.

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Erick Salgado Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Interest in Mayor’s Race Remains Low

Only 41% of registered voters in the city are paying attention to the campaign for mayor.  This includes 12% who are following it very closely and 29% who are watching it closely.  A plurality — 43% — are not following the race very closely, and another 16% are not paying attention to it at all.

These numbers are mostly unchanged from April when 38% of registered voters said they were paying very close or close attention to the race for mayor.  At that time, 45% were not following it very closely, and 18% were not following it at all.

Democrats are not much different in their attentiveness to the campaign than city voters as a whole.  44% of registered Democrats are currently following the campaign for mayor closely, and 55% are not.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race (NYC Registered Voters)

City Moving in Right Direction, Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Steady

A majority of New York City voters — 52% — think the city is moving in the right direction.  37% believe it is going in the wrong direction, and 11% are unsure.  Similarly, when Marist last reported this in April, 55% of registered voters said the city was on the right track.  38% said the city needed a course correction, and 7% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

Mayor Bloomberg’s approval rating also remains steady.  48% give him high marks, including 12% who say Bloomberg is doing an excellent job as mayor and 36% who say he is doing a good job.  30% rate his job performance as fair, and 19% say he is doing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 46% approved of how Bloomberg was performing as mayor. 32% said he was doing a fair job, and 21% rated his job performance as poor.  One percent was unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

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