By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff The top ten things candidates say when they know they are down in the polls are: 10) I’m right where I want to be. 9) Polls go up, polls go down. 8) I’m running neck and neck among _________ (fill in demographic group). 7) That’s not what our polls show. […]
1/8: A Psephologist’s Lament (And, You Can Look It Up)
January 8, 2016
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Poll Watcher Season is upon us big time. And, with it comes both the good and the bad. Each election cycle resurrects some oldies about the failings of public polls and typically ushers in a few new critiques. Expect 2016 to follow the same pattern. In an attempt to shed […]
5/28: Top 10 Reasons Why Polls Should Not be Used to Determine Eligibility for Debates
May 28, 2015
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Herding is for horses. Not for pollsters doing horserace polls. Neither should the media herd the field in a political horserace via debates. Why? Here is my take on the… TOP 10 REASONS WHY POLLS SHOULD NOT BE USED TO DETERMINE ELIGIBILITY FOR DEBATES (OR WHERE’S DAVID LETTERMAN WHEN YOU […]
4/14: Removing the Label of Inevitability?
April 14, 2015
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff The Hillary Clinton 1.0 “Listening Tour” and the 2.0 “Listening Tour” may be the same remedy from a campaign strategy point of view, but the circumstances are very different. When seeking the U.S. Senate from New York, although well-known, she had never sought elective office and had to prove herself […]
2/19: It’s Getting Later Earlier
February 19, 2015
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Some time back, we added 24 x 7 and the permanent campaign to America’s political lexicon. But, it sure seems like we are pushing the envelope this time around with about 20 GOP wannabes off and (almost) running for their party’s nomination. On the Democratic side, things are atypically more […]
7/25: Candidate Clinton? 50-50 Odds Are Never a Sure Bet
July 25, 2014
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff There are two schools of thought on whether Hillary Clinton is running for president in 2016. Some say she is and some say she isn’t. But, is Clinton in essence already on the campaign trail? I don’t know. What have we learned about whether she will eventually run for real? […]
7/9: Incumbent Cuomo Favored by Those Who Want Change
July 9, 2014
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Change is usually a welcome sign in politics for a challenger looking to unseat an incumbent. But, so far, in NYS the sentiment to move in a new direction is not providing Rob Astorino, the GOP challenger to Governor Andrew Cuomo, the kind of boost he needs. In […]
6/2: Likely Voters: Why Later Not Now
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Registered voters early. Likely voters later. Public polls serve their audience well by capturing the views of the electorate at an appropriate time and communicate precisely what group of voters they are including in their tabulations. Early in a contest, before voters have focused on the candidates or the race, […]