11/4: De Blasio with BIG Lead over Lhota Going into Election Day

November 4, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

The clock is counting down to Election Day, and in this final NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Democrat Bill de Blasio has a very wide lead over Republican Joe Lhota among New York City likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  De Blasio has the support of 65% of likely voters while Lhota receives 24%.  Independence candidate Adolfo Carrion has 4% while 1% of likely voters citywide wants another candidate to be elected.  Six percent are undecided.

Click Here for Complete November 4, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“Bill de Blasio continues to be the overwhelming favorite with New York City voters while Joe Lhota can’t get any traction,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Even a Peyton Manning fourth quarter comeback wouldn’t be enough to close this large gap.”

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist reported this question last month, 67% of likely voters citywide supported de Blasio.  23% backed Lhota while Carrion had the support of 2%.  One percent was for another candidate, and 7% were undecided.

By party:

  • Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 79% are for de Blasio compared with 14% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  In October, 82% backed de Blasio while 13% were for Lhota.  One percent was behind Carrion.
  • When it comes to likely Republican voters, 71% are for Lhota while 21% are for de Blasio.  Three percent support Carrion.  In that previous survey, 69% of likely Republican voters backed Lhota while 16% were for de Blasio, and 1% supported Carrion.
  • Among non-enrolled voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 50% support de Blasio.  29% are for Lhota while 11% back Carrion.  Last month, 58% of likely non-enrolled voters were for de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota.  Seven percent, at that time, backed Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio receives, at least, majority support.   Among African American voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 90% support de Blasio.  Lhota and Carrion each receives 2%.  72% of Latino voters are for de Blasio while 10% are for Lhota, and 9% back Carrion.  Among likely voters who are white, 53% support de Blasio, 39% back Lhota, and 2% are for Carrion.

Before last Wednesday’s debate, 65% of likely voters supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Carrion received the support of 4% while 1% wanted another candidate to be mayor.  Six percent were undecided.  After the debate, 65% supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Three percent backed Carrion while 1% were for another candidate.  Seven percent were undecided.

“The debate season has come and gone,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, the debates this fall have done more to reinforce voters’ impressions of the candidates than to change the character of the race.”

How strongly do likely voters citywide support their choice of candidate?  61% say they strongly support their selection for mayor while 30% are somewhat committed to their choice.  Eight percent might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick, and 9% said they might vote differently.  Two percent were unsure.

65% of likely voters who support de Blasio say they will not waver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 54% of likely voters who back Lhota and say they are strongly committed to him.  Last month, 56% of de Blasio’s backers reported they strongly supported him while 49% of Lhota’s backers had a similar level of intensity.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, de Blasio — 63% — is ahead of Lhota — 21% — by 42 percentage points.  Carrion receives the support of 5% while 1% wants someone else to be elected.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Done Deal for de Blasio?

Most registered voters in New York City think, regardless of who they plan to support, de Blasio will defeat Lhota tomorrow.  83% of voters believe de Blasio will win while only 8% think Lhota will be victorious.  Nine percent are undecided.  Even an overwhelming proportion of Lhota’s backers — 81% — think de Blasio will be the city’s next mayor.

Table: Who Do You Think Will Win the Election for New York City Mayor? (NYC Registered Voters)

About Two-Thirds Perceive de Blasio Favorably… Upside Down Rating for Lhota 

64% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable opinion of de Blasio.  26% have an unfavorable one, and 10% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In October, similar proportions shared these views.  65% of registered voters thought well of de Blasio.  23% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 12%, at that time, had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Lhota, 47% have an unfavorable view of him.  32% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 43% of registered voters had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota while 32% had a favorable one.  25% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Trumps Lhota on the Issues 

About two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — think de Blasio is the candidate who is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  18%, however, say Lhota is the candidate who will improve affordability in the city.  15% are unsure.  Last month, 67% of registered voters thought de Blasio was more capable to make the city affordable.  19% had this impression of Lhota, and 14%, at that time, were unsure.

Looking at crime in the city, 48% of registered voters believe de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 32% think Lhota is better able to keep the city safe.  About one in five — 19% — is unsure.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 52% said de Blasio would make the city safer.  31% believed Lhota was better able to keep crime down, and 17% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Ideologically Speaking 

What are voters’ impressions of de Blasio’s political ideology?  A majority of registered voters — 56% — thinks his ideology is about right.  29% say he is too liberal while 4% say he is too conservative.  11% are unsure.  In October, 59% thought de Blasio’s ideology was in line.  24% reported he was too liberal while 3% said he was too conservative.  14% were unsure.

When it comes to Lhota’s political ideology, 34% say his ideology is about right.  35% believe Lhota is too conservative while 8% say Lhota is too liberal.  23% are unsure.  Last month, 35% of registered voters reported Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while only 8% believed he was too liberal.  26%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Time for Change, Say More than Six in Ten 

64% of registered voters want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 31% want him to continue Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s policies.  Six percent are unsure.  There has been little change since NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s October survey.  At that time, 66% wanted a departure from Bloomberg’s policies.  29% reported they thought the city’s current policies should be continued, and 6% were unsure.

So, how do voters think Bloomberg is doing in office?  47% say he is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 13% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one.  29% rate Bloomberg’s approval rating as fair while 20% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 45% gave Bloomberg high marks.  34% said he was doing a fair job while 18% thought Bloomberg’s job performance was subpar.  Two percent were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

The City’s Course

49% of registered voters think New York City is moving in the right direction while 42% believe it is moving in the wrong one.  Nine percent are unsure.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 46% of voters thought the city was traveling on the right road while 46% said it needed a new path.  Eight percent were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/11: De Blasio Leads Lhota by 44 Percentage Points in NYC Mayor’s Race

October 11, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With just a little more than three weeks until Election Day, Democrat Bill de Blasio outpaces his Republican opponent, Joe Lhota, 67% to 23%, among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has the support of 2%.  One percent supports another candidate while 7% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“This is a very lopsided contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Joe Lhota hasn’t gotten any traction to offset the Democratic registration advantage in the city.”

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, de Blasio — 65% — was ahead of Lhota — 22% — by 43 percentage points among likely voters.  Carrion received the support of 3%.  One percent backed another candidate, and 9%, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

  • Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 82% support de Blasio while 13% are for Lhota.  One percent supports Carrion.  Last month, 77% of Democrats backed de Blasio.  13% were behind Lhota, and 1% supported Carrion.
  • Looking at likely Republican voters, 69% back Lhota.  16% are for de Blasio, and 1% supports Carrion.  In September’s survey, 63% of Republicans were for Lhota compared with 25% for de Blasio.  Five percent were behind Carrion.
  • Among non-enrolled voters, de Blasio has the backing of 58%.  Lhota garners 21%, and Carrion has 7%.  In that previous survey, half of non-enrolled voters likely to cast a ballot — 50% — supported de Blasio compared with 24% for Lhota and 9% for Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio has a wide lead over Lhota.  Among white voters who are likely to participate on Election Day, 57% support de Blasio while 33% are for Lhota.  In September, 50% of whites backed de Blasio while Lhota had the support of 37%.  Among African American voters, de Blasio has 89% to 4% for Lhota.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 86% of African American voters likely to cast a ballot supported de Blasio compared with 3% for Lhota.  De Blasio has a 62 percentage point advantage over Lhota among Latinos who are likely to vote.  Here, de Blasio receives 76% compared with 14% for Lhota.  Last month, 74% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day were for de Blasio while 11% backed Lhota.

How strongly do likely voters with a candidate preference support their choice for mayor?  54% strongly support their pick while 36% are somewhat behind their candidate.  Nine percent might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  33% were somewhat behind their pick while 13% said they might change their minds before Election Day.  One percent, at that time, was unsure.

Among likely voters who are for de Blasio, 56% strongly support him.  This compares with 49% of Lhota’s backers who are firmly committed to him.  This is little changed from September when 58% of de Blasio’s backers said they strongly supported him while 47% of Lhota’s supporters expressed the same level of support for him.

Looking at registered voters, de Blasio — 66% — outdistances Lhota — 20% — by 46 percentage points.  Carrion has the support of 3% while 2% back another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.  Last month, 63% of registered voters backed de Blasio while 20% supported Lhota.  Four percent were for Carrion, and 2% backed another candidate.  12% were undecided.

What does the contest for mayor look like when all fifteen candidates on the ballot are taken into account?  Little changes.  Among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 64% support de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  Jack Hidary and Michael Greys each receives 1%.  Erick Salgado, Anthony Gronowicz, James McMillian, Michael Sanchez, Randy Credico, Dan Fein, Joseph Melaragno, Sam Sloan, Michael Dilger, and Carl Person each garners less than one percent of the vote.  One percent mentions another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor Including All Fifteen Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

65% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio while 23% have an unfavorable one.  12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In September, 65% thought highly of de Blasio while 19% had an unfavorable view of him.  16%, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

It’s a different story when it comes to Lhota.  43% have an unfavorable impression of the candidate.  32% have a positive view of him, and a notable 25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  There has been little change on this question since September when 41% had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota, and 29% said they had a favorable one.  Three in ten — 30% — had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Tops Lhota on Issues and Qualities

How do de Blasio and Lhota stack up when it comes to campaign issues and candidate qualities?  Among registered voters in New York City:

  • Two out of three — 67% — think de Blasio is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure.  In September, 63% had this impression of de Blasio while 20% said Lhota could make New York City more affordable.  17% were unsure.
  • When it comes to improving the city’s public schools, about two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — say de Blasio is the better candidate for the job.  This compares with 19% who think Lhota is better able to improve education in the city.  16% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question.  Last month, 65% reported de Blasio was the candidate with the skills to improve education while 18% had this view of Lhota.  18%, at that time, were unsure.
  • 63% of registered voters think de Blasio can better unite the city.  This compares with 21% who think Lhota can bring New Yorkers together.  16% are unsure.  In that previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 67% of voters considered de Blasio to be the candidate who could better unite the city.  19% thought Lhota was the candidate to do so, and 14% were unsure.
  • There has also been little change on whether de Blasio or Lhota has the experience to manage the city.  53% believe de Blasio is the more seasoned candidate while 29% think Lhota has the experience to take the city’s helm.  18% are unsure.  Last month, a majority — 54% — reported de Blasio had the experience to be mayor compared with 31% who had this impression of Lhota.  15%, then, were unsure.
  • A majority of voters — 52% — say de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 31% say Lhota is more likely to do so.  17% are unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who say de Blasio will improve safety in the city.  Last month, 44% said de Blasio was more likely to reduce crime.  This compares with 35% who had this opinion of Lhota.  21%, at the time, were unsure.
  • When it comes to the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances, 49% think de Blasio is more capable.  This compares with 33% who say Lhota has the advantage on this issue.  19% are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 45% thought de Blasio was the better candidate to deal with the city’s finances while 35% had this opinion of Lhota.  20% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

The Ideologies of the Candidates 

Among registered voters in New York City, 59% report de Blasio’s political ideology is in step.  This compares with 24% who think he is too liberal and 3% who believe he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.

In September, 59% of registered voters said de Blasio’s ideology was about right.  22% reported he was too liberal while 5% thought he was too conservative.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Among registered voters, 35% say Lhota’s political ideology is in line.  31% report he is too conservative, and 8% believe he is too liberal.  26% are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 32% of voters thought Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while 7% reported he was too liberal.  29%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio’s Past Experiences in Cuba and Nicaragua Matter Little

Information surfaced that de Blasio went to Cuba on his honeymoon and supported the Sandinistas in Nicaragua.  Has this knowledge impacted voters’ impressions of de Blasio?  More than seven in ten registered voters — 72% — say it makes no difference to them.  16% report it makes them less likely to vote for de Blasio while 8% think it makes them more likely to vote for him.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of de Blasio’s Time in Cuba and Nicaragua on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Divide about Lhota and National GOP

On most issues, 40% of registered voters think Lhota is not independent from the national Republican Party.  36% believe he is independent from the GOP, and 24% are unsure where he stands on most issues.

Among those who believe Lhota’s stance on the issues is tied to the national Republican Party, 39% are less likely to support him, and 54% say it doesn’t matter.  Looking at those who say Lhota is independent from the national GOP platform, 42% would be more likely to vote for him, and 51% say it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Impact of Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing Does Little to Help Lhota’s Chances

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani stumped for Lhota during the primary, but his nod does not bolster Lhota’s chances in the general election.  While 31% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to support Lhota, 47% report it makes them less likely to do so.  18% think it makes no difference to their vote, and 3% are unsure.

Last month, 29% reported Giuliani’s support made them more likely to vote for Lhota.  A majority — 51% — said it made them less likely to vote for him, and 15% thought Giuliani’s endorsement made no difference to their vote.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

A partisan divide exists.  Most Republicans — 72% — say a Giuliani endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota while 8% report it makes them less inclined to support him.  Among Democrats, 57% think Giuliani’s backing makes them less likely to cast their ballot for Lhota.  22% disagree and believe it will make them more likely to do so.  There is little consensus among non-enrolled voters citywide.  35% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota, and 42% report it makes them less likely to vote for him.  20% believe it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Departure from Bloomberg Era Policies Desired… Bloomberg Rating Steady 

About two-thirds of registered voters in New York City — 66% — want to move the city in a different direction from the Bloomberg years.  29%, however, want the next mayor to continue the policies of Mayor Bloomberg.  Six percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 68% wanted the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 25% wanted him to stay the course.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

When it comes to the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office, 45% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who say the mayor is doing an excellent job and 33% who report he is doing a good one.  34% rate his performance as fair while 18% think he is performing poorly.  Two percent are unsure.

Last month, a similar 42% gave Bloomberg kudos.  33% gave him average grades while 22% thought he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)  

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track?

When it comes to the direction of New York City, 46% of registered voters believe it is moving in the right direction, and 46% think it is traveling in the wrong one.  Eight percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, voters also divided.  46% reported the city was on the right road, and 43% said it was on the wrong track.  11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

8/16: Tight Race in Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor… Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

August 16, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With less than a month to go until Primary Day, Democrats Christine Quinn and Bill de Blasio are locked in a tight race in their pursuit of the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor.  Bill Thompson is currently in third.  Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, just eight percentage points separate these three candidates, and only six percentage points are between them among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.  The scandal-ridden Anthony Weiner trails in fourth place.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 21% Bill de Blasio
  • 16% Bill Thompson
  • 12% Anthony Weiner
  •   6% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   3% Other
  • 15% Undecided

Click Here for Complete August 16, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“It’s been a topsy-turvy summer, and many Democratic voters are still waiting to be convinced,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although voters have yet to sort things out, Bill de Blasio has shown the biggest gain in the last couple of weeks.”

It was a very different contest just three weeks ago when the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question on July 25th.  At that time, Quinn — 25% — outpaced Weiner — 16% — by nine percentage points among New York City Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  De Blasio and Thompson each received the support of 14% of the Democratic electorate.  At that time, 7% backed John Liu while Erick Salgado had 2%.  One percent supported Sal Albanese, 2% were for another candidate, and 19% were undecided.

Where Are Top-Tier Candidates’ Strengths?

  • Quinn does better among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 33%, live in Manhattan — 30%, or who approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office — 29%.  She also does well among Democrats who are Catholic — 28% or Latino — 27%.
  • De Blasio does well among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 36%, who are Jewish — 30%, who live in Manhattan — 27%, or who earn $50,000 or more annually — 27%.  De Blasio has improved his standing among Democrats who are African American.  He currently receives the support of 20% of African American Democrats compared with 10% in the last poll.
  • Thompson does better among Democrats who are African American — 22%, but generally receives similar support from most other groups.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, de Blasio and Quinn each receive 24%.  18% back Thompson.  Weiner has the support of 11% of Democrats who are likely to cast a ballot while 5% are behind Liu.  Two percent are for Salgado, and 1% backs Albanese.  Credico has the support of 1%, and Grimaldi receives less than one percent.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

When it comes to intensity of support, a plurality of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference — 43% — say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  37% are somewhat committed to their pick while 17% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 42% said they were firmly committed to their candidate.  32% were somewhat behind their choice while 23% thought they might change their mind before casting their ballot.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

48% of de Blasio’s supporters say they will not waiver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 41% of New York City Democrats who rally for Thompson and 35% of those who are for Quinn.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Lhota Leads Catsimatidis for GOP Nod

Looking at the contest for the Republican nomination for mayor, Joe Lhota continues to have the advantage over John Catsimatidis.  George McDonald trails his GOP opponents by double-digits.  However, three in ten Republicans in New York City have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small number of registered Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 33% Joe Lhota
  • 22% John Catsimatidis
  • 12% George McDonald
  •   2% Other
  • 30% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, Lhota — 28% — led Catsimatidis — 21% — by 7 percentage points among New York City Republicans, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  10% backed George McDonald, and 1% were for another candidate.  40% were undecided.

How strongly committed are Republicans to their choice of candidate?  43% of those with a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice.  34% are somewhat behind their pick while 17% might change their mind.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Republican Mayoralty Candidate (NYC Republicans with a Candidate Preference)

No Runaway in Runoff Races… But de Blasio has Edge 

If none of the candidates receive 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary for mayor, a runoff for the Democratic nomination will be held.  How would the top-tier candidates fare in such a situation?

Among New York City Democrats:

  • When de Blasio and Quinn face off, de Blasio receives the support of 44% of registered Democrats compared with 42% for Quinn.  14% are undecided.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s June poll, Quinn — 47% — outpaced de Blasio — 33% — by 14 percentage points.  21% were undecided. Among likely Democratic voters, 47% are currently for de Blasio compared with 40% for Quinn.  12% are undecided.
  • Thompson — 44% — and Quinn — 43% — are also neck and neck among registered Democrats.  12% are undecided.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question nearly two months ago, Quinn received the support of 42% of Democrats compared with 40% for Thompson.  18%, at the time, were undecided.  Looking at likely Democratic voters this time, Thompson garners 47% to 42% for Quinn.  11% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives 44% compared with 36% for Thompson in a runoff among registered Democrats.  20% are undecided.  Among likely Democratic voters in this   survey, 47% are for de Blasio while 36% back Thompson.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Thompson vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Boost for de Blasio… Weiner’s Favorability at New Low

A majority of registered Democrats citywide view the top-tier Democratic candidates running for mayor positively.  This includes de Blasio who enjoys a bump in his positive rating.  Anthony Weiner’s favorability rating has sunk to an all-time low.

  • Nearly six in ten New York City Democrats — 59% — have a positive impression of de Blasio while 14% have an unfavorable view of the candidate.  26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, 52% thought highly of de Blasio.  19% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 56% of registererd Democrats have a favorable view of Thompson.  18% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In June, 60% had a positive opinion of Thompson, and 16% had an unfavorable impression of him.  25%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of registered Democrats — 54% — has a favorable impression of Quinn.  32% have an unfavorable opinion of her while 13% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In June, 57% thought well of Quinn, 29% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • When it comes to Weiner, 63% of registered Democrats citywide have an unfavorable opinion of him.  26% think well of him while 11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 55% had an unfavorable opinion of Weiner.  30% had a positive impression of the candidate, and 15% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

 

Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

In the Democratic primary for New York City comptroller, Eliot Spitzer receives majority support — 53% — among New York City registered Democrats including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  This compares with 34% for Scott Stringer.  One percent is for another candidate, and 11% are undecided.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 49% backed Spitzer, and 32% were for Stringer.  Two percent backed another candidate, and 17% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 54% are behind Spitzer while 36% are for Stringer.  One percent backs another candidate, and 9% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer — 48% — led Stringer — 36% — by 12 percentage points among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

48% of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference for comptroller strongly support their choice.  37% are somewhat committed to their candidate while 14% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

More registered Democrats today are strongly committed to their candidate selection for comptroller.  When this question was last reported on July 11th, 39% of Democrats with a candidate preference said they were firmly committed to their choice, and 36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick.  22% thought they might vote differently, and 2% were unsure.

A majority of Spitzer’s supporters — 51% — say they are firmly committed to their candidate.  This compares with 43% of Stringer’s backers who say the same.  There has been a notable increase in the proportion of Democrats who strongly support Stringer.  In early July, 30% of Stringer’s supporters were firmly committed to him.  This compares with 47% of those who firmly backed Spitzer at that time.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Comptroller Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Majority of Democrats Are Undecided in Public Advocate Race 

In the contest for the Democratic nomination for New York City’s public advocate, 51% of registered Democrats are undecided about which candidate to support.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 16% Letitia James
  • 12% Catherine Guerriero
  •   9% Daniel Squadron
  •   3% Reshma Saujani
  •   2% Sidique Wai
  •   7% Other
  • 51% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in its June 26th poll, James received the support of 17% of New York City registered Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  16% supported Guerriero.  Eight percent backed Squadron, and 4% were for Saujani.  Less than one percent supported another candidate, and 54% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 16% support James. Guerriero and Squadron each receives the backing of 12%.  Saujani has 3%, and 2% are for Wai.  Six percent want to elect another candidate, and 49% are undecided.

Among registered Democrats with a candidate preference for public advocate, 38% are strongly committed to their candidate.  34% somewhat back their choice while 25% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

In June, 34% strongly supported their candidate.  43% were somewhat behind their choice for public advocate while 20% reported they might change their mind.  Two percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

44% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 11% who say he is doing an excellent job and 33% who think he is doing a good one.  31% rate his performance as fair while 21% report he is doing poorly in office.  Five percent are unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 11th, similar proportions held these views.  46% said Bloomberg was doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  28% gave him fair grades while 21% believed his performance fell short.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)


 

A City on Track?

46% of registered voters in the Big Apple believe New York City is moving in the right direction.  40% think it is traveling in the wrong direction, and 14% are unsure.  This is the first time since September 2011 that the proportion of voters citywide who think the city is on the right course has fallen below 50%.  At that time, 42% said the city was on track, 52% reported it was off course, and 6% were unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in July, a slim majority of voters — 51% — said the city was moving in the right direction.  35% believed it needed a new course, and 14% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

6/26: Weiner Surpasses Quinn among NYC Dems…Lhota Tops GOP Field in Quest for NYC Mayoralty

A month after former Congressman Anthony Weiner announced his candidacy for New York City Mayor, Weiner has moved ahead of his competitors.  He now edges New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn by five percentage points in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Anthony Weiner
  • 20% Christine Quinn
  • 13% Bill Thompson
  • 10% Bill de Blasio
  •   8% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Other
  • 18% Undecided

Click Here for Complete June 26, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll*

“The Weiner candidacy has scrambled the contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, nearly one in five Democrats are undecided, and almost two-thirds are not firmly committed to a candidate which makes for a lot of persuadable voters.”

The two frontrunners have traded places.  In May, shortly after Weiner announced his candidacy, 24% of Democrats in New York City supported Quinn while Weiner received the support of 19%.  Bill de Blasio garnered 12%, followed closely by Thompson with 11%.  Eight percent backed Liu while 1% supported Albanese.  Less than 1% backed Salgado while 1% was behind another candidate.  23% of New York City Democrats were undecided.

By borough:

  • In Queens and Staten Island, Weiner — 30% — leads Quinn — 20%.
  • In Brooklyn, Weiner — 23% — also has the advantage over Quinn — 16%.
  • In the Bronx, both Weiner and Quinn each receive the support of 21%.
  • In Manhattan, Quinn — 27% — edges Weiner — 23%.

By gender:

  • While Weiner — 29% — is ahead of Quinn — 19% — among men who are Democrats, Weiner — 22% — and Quinn — 21% — are in a close contest among women.

How strongly do New York City Democrats with a candidate preference support their choice?  36% are firmly committed to their pick.  38% are somewhat in their candidate’s camp while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.  There has been little change on this question since last month when 39% expressed strong support for their candidate.  35%, at that time, were somewhat committed to their pick while 25% said they could change their minds.  Two percent were unsure.

When it comes to the intensity of support for the two frontrunners, Weiner still has the edge.  45% of Democrats who back the former Congressman say they are firmly committed to him while 34% of those who are for Quinn proffer the same level of support.  In Marist’s previous survey, 43% of candidate Weiner’s supporters and 30% of candidate Quinn’s backers vowed not to waver in their level of commitment.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Weiner has the backing of 25%.  Quinn runs second with 21% while 14% are for Thompson.  13% supports de Blasio while Liu receives 8%.  Two percent are in Salgado’s camp while 1% supports Albanese.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 16% are undecided.

Looking at the Republican contest, Joe Lhota is ahead of his closest competitor, John Catsimatidis, by seven percentage points.  George McDonald is in third.  A notable 40% citywide have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small proportion of Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 28% Joe Lhota
  • 21% John Catsimatidis
  • 10% George McDonald
  •   1% Other
  • 40% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, Lhota — 20% — outpaced George McDonald, by 12 percentage points.  At that time, 8% of Republicans citywide supported McDonald.  Catsimatidis received the support of 5% of the vote while Tom Allon — 4% — Adolfo Carrion — 3% — and A.R. Bernard — 2% — rounded out the field.  Three percent, then, supported another candidate, and a majority — 55% — was undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Quinn and Weiner in Tight Race in Runoff …Thompson Runs Competitively

If none of the Democratic candidates receives 40% of the vote, how would they fare in a runoff?  When Quinn — 44% — and Weiner — 42% — face off, they vie for the lead.  14% of New York City Democrats are undecided.

Weiner has gained support during the last month.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 48% of New York City Democrats backed Quinn while 33% supported Weiner.  Almost one in five — 18% — was undecided.

Among New York City Democrats:

  • Thompson has caught up to Quinn.  In a runoff scenario, Quinn — 42% — and Thompson — 40% — are now neck and neck.  18% are undecided.  In May, Quinn — 44% — led Thompson — 34% — by 10 percentage points.  22% were undecided.
  • Against de Blasio, Quinn has 47% compared with 33% for de Blasio.  More than one in five Democrats — 21% — is undecided.  There has been little change on this question.  In Marist’s previous survey, Quinn — 48% — outdistanced de Blasio — 30%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • In a runoff against Liu, Quinn has the support of 49% while Liu garners 32%.  19% are undecided.  In May, a majority of Democrats — 53% — backed Quinn against Liu — 25%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • Thompson — 42% — and Weiner — 41% — are competitive in this hypothetical runoff contest.  18% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 47% — leads Liu — 35% — among New York City Democrats.  19% are undecided.
  • In a runoff scenario against de Blasio, 44% are for Weiner while 39% are for de Blasio.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Sharpton Endorsement Would Do Little to Boost Electoral Chances

If Reverend Al Sharpton were to endorse one of the Democratic candidates for mayor, just 25% of Democrats citywide say they would be more likely to vote for that candidate.  However, a plurality — 45% — would be less likely to do so.  One in five — 20% — reports such an endorsement would make no difference to their vote.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.

There are racial differences.  Almost four in ten African American Democrats — 39% — would be more likely to support a candidate with Reverend Sharpton’s endorsement.  27% would be less likely to vote for such a candidate, and 22% report it would make no difference to their vote.  Among white Democrats, a majority — 52% — would be less inclined to back a candidate with Mr. Sharpton’s backing.  17% would be more likely to do so, and 23% say it would not impact their vote.  Nearly half of Latino Democrats — 49% — would be less likely to support a candidate with Sharpton’s endorsement.  26% would be more likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 14% report it would make no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Sharpton Endorsement

Most Dems Still Viewed Positively, But…

Most of the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination are viewed favorably by those in their party.  While Christine Quinn’s favorability rating remains strong, it continues to decline.  Weiner and Thompson, in contrast, currently enjoy a boost in their favorability ratings.

  • Six in ten Democrats in New York City — 60% — have a good impression of Thompson while 16% do not.  25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Thompson’s favorability rating is up from last month when 52% of Democrats thought well of him.  17% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Quinn, 57% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of her while 29% have an unfavorable view of her.  14% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Quinn’s positive rating has dipped slightly while her negative rating has inched up.  In May, six in ten Democrats — 60% — had a favorable view of Quinn.  26% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • A majority of Democrats — 52% — view Weiner well while 36% do not.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Democrats divided in May when 44% had a favorable opinion of Weiner, 44% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 12% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — have a favorable impression of Bill de Blasio.  19% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, half of Democrats in the city — 50% — had a positive view of de Blasio while 19% had a negative one.  30% had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A plurality of Democrats — 47% — have a favorable opinion of Liu.  31% have a lesser view of the candidate, and more than one in five — 22% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  These findings are similar to those reported in May when 45% of Democrats had a positive impression of the candidate, 31% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Democrats’ impressions of Salgado, the candidate has much still to do to become known among the city’s Democrats.  Nearly six in ten Democrats — 58% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Just 21% have a positive opinion of him while the same proportion — 21% — has an unfavorable one.  Last month, a similar 60% could not offer an opinion of Salgado.  13% thought well of him while 27% had an unfavorable view of the candidate.
  • Albanese also needs to make himself better known to New York City Democrats.  54% have either never heard of Albanese or are unsure how to rate him.  21% have a positive impression of him while 25% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  This is little changed from Marist’s May survey when 55% had either never heard of Albanese or were unsure how to rate him.  18%, then, thought well of Albanese while 26% had an unfavorable view of him.

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Erick Salgado Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Getting to Know the GOP Hopefuls

On the GOP side, more Republicans in New York City have a positive opinion of Joe Lhota.  Catsimatidis has also experienced a bump in his favorability rating, but the candidate still needs to become better acquainted with his party’s faithful.  McDonald also needs to make inroads with his fellow Republicans.

  • A slim majority of Republicans — 51% — have a favorable impression of Lhota.  11% have an unfavorable one, and 38% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s February survey, only 42% had a positive opinion of Lhota.  12% had a lesser view of him, and 46% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 38% think well of Catsimatidis.  17% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 45% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Slightly more Republicans have a positive view of Catsimatidis than did earlier this year.  When Marist last reported this question in February, a majority — 56% — had yet to form an opinion of Catsimatidis.  Three in ten — 30% — gave him a favorable rating while 14% had an unfavorable impression of him.
  • McDonald needs to make his presence known to New York City Republicans.  Nearly seven in ten Republicans — 68% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  17% think well of McDonald while 15% do not.  In February, almost two-thirds — 65% — had either never heard of the candidate or were unsure how to rate him.  18% had a positive impression of the candidate while 17% had an unfavorable one.

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Democrats Outdistance Republicans by More than Two-to-One

Regardless of who the specific candidates will be in this fall’s general election, the Democrat outpaces the Republican.  If the Democratic candidate were pitted against Joe Lhota and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • 52% of registered voters support Quinn.  15% are for Lhota, and 10% are for Carrion.  22% are undecided.  When Marist last reported this question in February, nearly six in ten voters — 59% — backed Quinn against Lhota — 17% — and Carrion — 8%.  17% were undecided.
  • 52% support de Blasio while 15% are for Lhota.  Six percent back Carrion, and 28% are undecided.
  • Nearly half of voters — 49% — support Thompson.  14% back Lhota, and 9% are for Carrion.  Close to three in ten — 28% — are undecided.
  • 49% are for Liu while Lhota receives 16%, and Carrion garners 8%.  27% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 46% — outpaces Lhota — 17% — by 29 percentage points.  Here, Carrion receives the support of 10%.  27% are undecided.

 If the Democratic candidate were up against John Catsimatidis and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • Weiner — 51% — outpaces Catsimatidis — 14% — and Carrion — 10%.  One in four — 25% — is undecided.
  • Thompson — 49% — leads Catsimatidis — 15%.  Carrion receives the support of 8%, and 28% are undecided.
  • A plurality of registered voters — 47% — back Quinn when matched against Catsimatidis — 16%.  Nine percent support Carrion, and 27% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives the backing of 44%.  Catsimatidis achieves 15%, and Carrion has the support of 10%.  31% are undecided.
  • Four in ten registered voters — 40% — back Liu when against Catsimatidis — 18% — and Carrion — 11%.  31% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — de Blasio/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Nearly Half of Voters Would Consider Voting for Weiner

Despite the political scars Weiner suffered following the sexting scandal, 49% of registered voters in New York City now say they would consider voting for the embattled politician.  45% would not think about casting their ballot for him, and 6% are unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who report they would consider voting for Weiner.  When NBC New York/Marist last reported this question in April, a majority of voters citywide — 52% — would not entertain the idea of supporting Weiner.  40% said they would consider it, and 8% were unsure.

Democrats and non-enrolled voters make the difference.  A majority of Democrats — 53% — say they would cast their ballot for Weiner.  This compares with 46% in April.  While non-enrolled voters divide, there has been a 16 percentage point increase in the proportion of these voters who say they might vote for Weiner.  47% now have this opinion compared with 31% two months ago.

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner? (NYC Registered Voters)

Should Bloomberg Keep Endorsement Under Wraps?

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has reported that he has decided who he wants to succeed him as mayor.  However, he has not announced his choice.  Should he?  New York City voters divide.  44% believe he should while 44% think he should not reveal who he supports.  11% are unsure.

By party:

  • A majority of Republican voters — 53% — say Bloomberg should share his decision.
  • Democrats and non-enrolled voters divide.  47% of Democrats say he should keep his choice to himself while 44% think he should announce his decision.
  • Among non-enrolled voters, 44% want to hear Bloomberg’s choice.  This compares with 42% who think he should keep it private.

Table: Should Bloomberg Reveal the Candidate He Wants to Succeed Him? (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing of Lhota Helps for Primary, But …

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani still carries sway among the city’s Republicans.  68% of Republican voters say Giuliani’s support of Joe Lhota makes them more likely to vote for Lhota for mayor.  But, Giuliani’s support does little to bolster Lhota’s chances in a general election.  While 29% of registered voters say Giuliani’s backing will make them more likely to vote for Lhota, 46% report it will make them less likely to do so.  16% say it makes little difference to their vote, and 9% are unsure.

Table: Impact of Giuliani’s Endorsement of Lhota (NYC Registered Voters)

Lackluster Interest in Mayor’s Race

But, does it all matter?  Among registered voters in New York City, 39% say they are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  Included here are 7% who are following the contest very closely and 32% who are watching it closely.  A plurality — 44% — is not following it very closely while 16% are not tracking it at all.

Interest in the mayor’s race is not yet picking up.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 41% said they were following the contest.  This included 12% who were keeping very close tabs on the election and 29% who were following it closely.  43% said they weren’t watching it very closely, and 16% weren’t tracking the contest at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race (NYC Registered Voters)

A Look at the Race for Public Advocate

While Letitia James and Catherine Guerriero are neck in neck for the Democratic nomination for public advocate, a majority of Democrats have yet to choose a candidate.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 17% Letitia James
  • 16% Catherine Guerriero
  •   8% Daniel Squadron
  •   4% Reshma Saujani
  • <1% Other
  • 54% Undecided

The race for public advocate is very fluid.  Among Democrats with a candidate preference, just 34% strongly support their choice.  43% somewhat support their pick, and 20% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

 

2/14: NYC Mayoralty: Quinn Leads Democratic Field…Lhota Ahead Among GOP

February 14, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will leave office at the end of the year.  So, who could be his successor?  Looking at the Democratic contest, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads her closest opponent by almost three-to-one.

Election Papers

©istockphoto.com/LilliDay

Click Here for Complete February 14, 2013 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Among registered Democratic voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 37% Christine Quinn
  • 13% Bill Thompson
  • 12% Bill de Blasio
  •   9% John Liu
  •   2% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Other
  • 26% Undecided

“An open seat is attracting a crowd,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Right now, Quinn is in the driver’s seat, but the race is still very fluid.”

Quinn has improved her standing among New York City Democrats.  In fact, her support has rebounded to more than what it was last spring.  When NY1-Marist reported this question in October, Quinn received the support of 23% of Democrats.  15% backed former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  Nine percent gave their support to current City Comptroller John Liu while Public Advocate Bill de Blasio garnered 8%.  Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer had 6%, and the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, received 2%.  At that time, 37% were unsure.  In NY1-Marist’s April survey, 32% of New York City Democrats supported Quinn.

How committed to their choice are Democrats with a candidate preference?  30% strongly support their pick.  34% are somewhat behind their candidate while 32% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

What are New York City Democrats’ impressions of these mayoral aspirants?

  • 65% have a favorable opinion of Quinn while 17% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
  • Looking at Thompson, nearly half — 49% — have a favorable impression of him while 20% do not.  31% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • 48% of New York City Democrats have a positive view of de Blasio while 20% have an unfavorable one.  32% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Liu, 43% have a favorable impression of him while 27% have an unfavorable one.  30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • Only 26% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Albanese while 20% have an unfavorable view of him.  A majority — 54% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

On the Republican side, former MTA Chairman Joe Lhota has the advantage over opponents for his party’s nomination but by no means a lock.  A majority of Republicans citywide — 55% — are undecided.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 20% Joe Lhota
  •   8% George McDonald
  •   5% John Catsimatidis
  •   4% Tom Allon
  •   3% Adolfo Carrion
  •   2% A.R. Bernard
  •   3% Other
  • 55% Undecided

Hopefuls in the Republican field lack name recognition.  Except for Lhota, a majority of New York City Republicans do not offer an impression of the potential Republican nominees for mayor.

    • 42% of GOP voters think well of Lhota while 12% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • 30% have a favorable view of Businessman John Catsimatidis while 14% have an unfavorable one.  A majority — 56% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • When it comes to former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion, 20% perceive him positively while 21% do not.  59% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • Advocate George McDonald is viewed well by 18% of Republicans citywide.  17%, however, have an unfavorable impression of him.  Nearly two-thirds — 65% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • Just 16% say they have a positive opinion of Manhattan Media publisher Allon.  This compares with 17% who have an unfavorable view of him.  67% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • Only 12% think well of Reverend A.R. Bernard.  18% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate, and seven in ten — 70% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

While former Congressman Anthony Weiner has not announced a candidacy for public office, there has been speculation about his political intentions.  Weiner, though, has a perception problem.  Only 30% of registered voters in New York City view him favorably.  46% have an unfavorable impression of him while 24% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Adolfo Carrion Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Tom Allon Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: A.R. Bernard Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

From the Primary to the General…Democrats Outdistance GOP Hopeful Lhota
 
When it comes to November’s general election, how do the candidates fare in head-to-head matchups?  Among New York City registered voters:

      • Quinn — 64% — outpaces Lhota — 18%.  18% are undecided.
      • If Thompson were to face-off against Lhota, Thompson — 61% — surpasses Lhota — 19%.  20% are undecided.
      • When de Blasio and Lhota square off, 60% back de Blasio compared with 18% for Lhota.  22% are undecided.
      • 56% are for Liu while 20% are behind Lhota.  23% are undecided.
      • In a race between Albanese and Lhota, 52% support Albanese compared with 21% for Lhota.  27% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Thompson/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Liu/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Albanese/Lhota

Third Party Candidate Makes Little Difference
 
If Adolfo Carrion decided to run on an independent line, how would the race shape up?

Among New York City registered voters:

    • Quinn has the support of 59% to 17% for Lhota.  Carrion receives 8%, and 17% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota/Carrion

Former Mayors Could Do More Harm than Good in General Election, But…
 
A candidate endorsement by Mayor Bloomberg may not bolster that candidate’s prospects.  If Bloomberg were to endorse a candidate, 36% of the electorate would be more likely to vote for that candidate while 44% would be less likely to vote for him or her.  14% report Bloomberg’s endorsement would make no difference to their vote, and 7% are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 28% said they would be more inclined to cast their ballot for a Bloomberg-endorsed candidate while 42% believed such a backing would make them less likely to support that candidate.  18% thought it would make no difference to their vote, and 11% were unsure.

What if former Mayor Rudy Giuliani were to endorse a candidate?  While Giuliani’s backing would do little to bolster such a candidate in the general election, it could pay dividends in the Republican primary.

Among New York City registered voters, 38% would be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Giuliani while 46% would be less likely to vote for that person.  Nine percent report it would make little difference to their vote, and 6% are unsure.

However, among Republicans citywide, 71% would be more inclined to support a candidate who receives Giuliani’s stamp of approval.  17% would be less likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 9% say it wouldn’t matter one way or the other.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

Table: Impact of Giuliani Endorsement

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample