New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will leave office at the end of the year. So, who could be his successor? Looking at the Democratic contest, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads her closest opponent by almost three-to-one.
Among registered Democratic voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:
- 37% Christine Quinn
- 13% Bill Thompson
- 12% Bill de Blasio
- 9% John Liu
- 2% Sal Albanese
- 1% Other
- 26% Undecided
“An open seat is attracting a crowd,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Right now, Quinn is in the driver’s seat, but the race is still very fluid.”
Quinn has improved her standing among New York City Democrats. In fact, her support has rebounded to more than what it was last spring. When NY1-Marist reported this question in October, Quinn received the support of 23% of Democrats. 15% backed former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson. Nine percent gave their support to current City Comptroller John Liu while Public Advocate Bill de Blasio garnered 8%. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer had 6%, and the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, received 2%. At that time, 37% were unsure. In NY1-Marist’s April survey, 32% of New York City Democrats supported Quinn.
How committed to their choice are Democrats with a candidate preference? 30% strongly support their pick. 34% are somewhat behind their candidate while 32% might vote differently. Three percent are unsure.
What are New York City Democrats’ impressions of these mayoral aspirants?
- 65% have a favorable opinion of Quinn while 17% have an unfavorable one. 18% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
- Looking at Thompson, nearly half — 49% — have a favorable impression of him while 20% do not. 31% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
- 48% of New York City Democrats have a positive view of de Blasio while 20% have an unfavorable one. 32% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
- When it comes to Liu, 43% have a favorable impression of him while 27% have an unfavorable one. 30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
- Only 26% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Albanese while 20% have an unfavorable view of him. A majority — 54% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
On the Republican side, former MTA Chairman Joe Lhota has the advantage over opponents for his party’s nomination but by no means a lock. A majority of Republicans citywide — 55% — are undecided.
Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:
- 20% Joe Lhota
- 8% George McDonald
- 5% John Catsimatidis
- 4% Tom Allon
- 3% Adolfo Carrion
- 2% A.R. Bernard
- 3% Other
- 55% Undecided
Hopefuls in the Republican field lack name recognition. Except for Lhota, a majority of New York City Republicans do not offer an impression of the potential Republican nominees for mayor.
- 42% of GOP voters think well of Lhota while 12% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
- 30% have a favorable view of Businessman John Catsimatidis while 14% have an unfavorable one. A majority — 56% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
- When it comes to former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion, 20% perceive him positively while 21% do not. 59% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
- Advocate George McDonald is viewed well by 18% of Republicans citywide. 17%, however, have an unfavorable impression of him. Nearly two-thirds — 65% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
- Just 16% say they have a positive opinion of Manhattan Media publisher Allon. This compares with 17% who have an unfavorable view of him. 67% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
- Only 12% think well of Reverend A.R. Bernard. 18% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate, and seven in ten — 70% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
While former Congressman Anthony Weiner has not announced a candidacy for public office, there has been speculation about his political intentions. Weiner, though, has a perception problem. Only 30% of registered voters in New York City view him favorably. 46% have an unfavorable impression of him while 24% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
From the Primary to the General…Democrats Outdistance GOP Hopeful Lhota
When it comes to November’s general election, how do the candidates fare in head-to-head matchups? Among New York City registered voters:
- Quinn — 64% — outpaces Lhota — 18%. 18% are undecided.
- If Thompson were to face-off against Lhota, Thompson — 61% — surpasses Lhota — 19%. 20% are undecided.
- When de Blasio and Lhota square off, 60% back de Blasio compared with 18% for Lhota. 22% are undecided.
- 56% are for Liu while 20% are behind Lhota. 23% are undecided.
- In a race between Albanese and Lhota, 52% support Albanese compared with 21% for Lhota. 27% are undecided.
Third Party Candidate Makes Little Difference
If Adolfo Carrion decided to run on an independent line, how would the race shape up?
Among New York City registered voters:
- Quinn has the support of 59% to 17% for Lhota. Carrion receives 8%, and 17% are undecided.
Former Mayors Could Do More Harm than Good in General Election, But…
A candidate endorsement by Mayor Bloomberg may not bolster that candidate’s prospects. If Bloomberg were to endorse a candidate, 36% of the electorate would be more likely to vote for that candidate while 44% would be less likely to vote for him or her. 14% report Bloomberg’s endorsement would make no difference to their vote, and 7% are unsure.
When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 28% said they would be more inclined to cast their ballot for a Bloomberg-endorsed candidate while 42% believed such a backing would make them less likely to support that candidate. 18% thought it would make no difference to their vote, and 11% were unsure.
What if former Mayor Rudy Giuliani were to endorse a candidate? While Giuliani’s backing would do little to bolster such a candidate in the general election, it could pay dividends in the Republican primary.
Among New York City registered voters, 38% would be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Giuliani while 46% would be less likely to vote for that person. Nine percent report it would make little difference to their vote, and 6% are unsure.
However, among Republicans citywide, 71% would be more inclined to support a candidate who receives Giuliani’s stamp of approval. 17% would be less likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 9% say it wouldn’t matter one way or the other. Two percent are unsure.
Fernando Ferrer is narrowly ahead in the Democratic primary for mayor: Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer narrowly leads his closest opponent Congressman Anthony Weiner by six points among Democrats likely to vote in tomorrow’s primary for mayor. Ferrer receives the support of 35% of likely Democratic voters compared with 29% for Weiner. Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields and Council Speaker Gifford Miller trail with 14% each. 8% of likely Democratic voters are undecided. When undecided likely Democratic voters who lean toward a candidate are included in the results, Fernando Ferrer receives 36%, Anthony Weiner has 29%, C. Virginia Fields has 16%, and Gifford Miller receives 15%. Only 4% of likely Democratic voters remain undecided.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda? Had Republican Michael Bloomberg sought the Democratic nomination for mayor he would handily defeat all four of the candidates running in next week’s Democratic primary. When registered Democrats are asked to choose a candidate for mayor, 42% would give their party’s nod to Mayor Bloomberg.
Ferrer and Fields closely matched in Democratic primary for mayor: After weeks of controversy over his comments about the Amadou Diallo shooting, Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer now finds himself in a competitive race for the Democratic nomination for mayor with Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields. Ferrer receives support from 34% of city Democrats for September’s primary compared with 30% for Fields. Council Speaker Gifford Miller and Congressman Anthony Weiner trail with 12% and 11%, respectively. 13% of Democrats are undecided.