8/3: Turned Around? Voters More Positive About Direction of New York State

For the first time in more than four years, less than a majority of registered voters in New York think the state is headed in the wrong direction.  According to this NY1/YNN-Marist Poll, voters currently divide about the state’s trajectory.  46% report New York State is moving along the right path while 45% say it is on the wrong course.  Nine percent are unsure.

Click Here for Complete August 3^rd, 2011 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

This NY1/YNN-Marist Poll marks a major shift in voters’ perceptions toward the future of New York.  This is the first time since March of 2007 that voters are more optimistic about the direction of the state.  At that time, 49% believed New York was moving in the right direction, 43% thought it was moving in the wrong one, and 8% were unsure.

“New York State voters are responding to what they see as change in Albany,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Governor Cuomo still has a way to go before confidence is restored, but this represents a step in the right direction.”

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in May, 41% thought New York was moving in the right direction while a majority — 54% — said it was traveling in the wrong one.  Six percent, at the time, were unsure.

Looking at party, highlights include:

• Among Democrats, 59% believe the state is on the proper track while 34% say it needs its course corrected.  Eight percent are unsure.  In May, those proportions stood at 50%, 45%, and 6%, respectively.
• Although there has been little change among non-enrolled voters who think the state is moving in the right direction, there has been a decrease in those who believe it is moving in the wrong one.  53% of non-enrolled voters say New York needs a new compass.  66% said the same in May.
• There has been little change among Republicans.  38% say New York is on the right track.  35% shared this opinion three months ago.

Regionally, highlights include:

• Voters in the suburbs of New York City and upstate are more positive about the future of the state.  In the suburbs, a majority — 52% — believe the state is chugging along the right track.  Just 37% said New York’s direction was on target in May.
• Upstate, 45% of voters report the state is moving in the right direction while 33% reported New York was on the correct road in NY1/YNN-Marist Poll’s previous survey.
• There is decreased optimism in New York City.  44% now say the state is on the right path while 55% reported the same three months ago.

Table: Direction of NYS
Table: Direction of NYS (Over Time)

 

Cuomo Approval Rating Steady … Viewed Favorably by About Two-Thirds

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo continues to receive high marks from registered voters in New York State.  A majority — 56% — think Mr. Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Included here are 12% who say he is excelling as governor and 44% who report he is doing a good job.  Nearly one in four voters statewide — 24% — rate Mr. Cuomo’s job performance as fair while only one in ten — 10% — believe he is performing poorly.  An additional 10% are unsure.

Governor Cuomo’s job approval rating has remained consistent since NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey.  In May, 54% approved of his job performance.  31% said he was doing a fair job while 6% gave Cuomo failing grades.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure how to rate him.

There has been a bump in Cuomo’s approval rating among Democrats and non-enrolled voters.  65% of Democrats and 57% of non-enrolled voters currently approve of the job the governor is doing while 56% and 41%, respectively, did so in May.  Mr. Cuomo has lost some traction with Republicans statewide.  While half — 50% — now praise Cuomo, 62% applauded him in NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey.

When it comes to the governor’s favorability, 67% of registered voters in New York State have a positive impression of Mr. Cuomo.  Almost one in four — 23% — has an unfavorable view of him, and 9% are unsure.

In May, 72% thought highly of Governor Cuomo while 16% did not.  12% were unsure.

While Governor Cuomo’s favorability rating has remained relatively unchanged among Democrats and non-enrolled voters statewide, fewer Republicans have a positive impression of him.  57% of Republicans currently think well of Cuomo compared with 69% who did so in May.

On the specifics of Cuomo’s image, other highlights include:

• 72% of registered voters think Governor Andrew Cuomo is a good leader for the state.  19% do not, and 9% are unsure.  Little has changed on this question since NY1/YNN-Marist’s May survey when 72%, 16%, and 12%, respectively, shared these views.

o   On this question, there has been a slight bump in the proportion of Democrats who think Mr. Cuomo is a good leader.  However, there has been a slight decline in the proportions of Republicans and non-enrolled voters who have this opinion.

• 66% of registered voters believe Cuomo is fulfilling campaign promises while 19% do not.  15% are unsure.  In May, 64% said he was keeping his word, 23% believed he was not, and 13% were unsure.

o   More Democrats, compared with NY1/YNN-Marist’s May survey, say Cuomo is fulfilling campaign promises.  Again, there has been a decrease in the proportion of Republicans who feel this way.  Since May, there has been little change among non-enrolled voters.

• 60% of registered voters say Cuomo is changing the way things work in Albany for the better. 25% disagree, and 14% are unsure.  Here, too, there has been little change since May.  At that time, 62% believed Cuomo was having a positive impact on Albany.  27% didn’t think that was the case, and 11% were unsure.

o   There has been an increase in the proportion of non-enrolled voters who believe Cuomo is positively impacting Albany.  Fewer Republicans share this view, and the proportion of Democrats is relatively unchanged since May.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating
Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time
Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability
Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time
Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader
Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader Over Time
Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises
Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises Over Time
Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany
Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Obama Approval Rating Below 50%

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has dipped down to 46% among registered voters in New York State.  This includes 12% who say he is doing an excellent job in office and 34% who report he is doing a good one.  One in four — 25% — says he is doing a fair job while 28% think he is performing poorly.  Only 2% are unsure.

When NY1/YNN-Marist last asked this question in January, a majority — 53% — praised President Obama.  25% gave him fair marks, and 22% said he was falling short.  At that time, just 1% was unsure.

President Obama’s approval rating has dropped among Democrats and Republicans statewide.  Currently, 66% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans in New York approve of Mr. Obama’s job performance.  This compares with 75% and 26%, respectively, who thought this way in January.  42% of non-enrolled voters give the president a “thumbs-up” which is little changed from the 45% who did so in January.

Table: Obama Approval Rating
Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

 

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology

10/22: Countdown to Election Day in NY

With less than two weeks until Election Day, will the Republicans take control of the New York State Senate?  Can we expect any surprises in New York, and what will turnout be like?  The Marist Poll’s John Sparks speaks with Political Analyst Jay DeDapper about this and more.  Listen to the interview or read the transcript below.

John Sparks
Jay, Election Day is approaching. The last time we spoke about the New York Governor’s race, you told me it’s Andrew Cuomo’s to lose.  Now there’s been this debate, just curious, have things changed, or is the race tightening up any?

Listen to the Interview, Part 1:

Jay DeDapper
If anything, it’s changed in Andrew Cuomo’s favor.  Carl Paladino, the Republican candidate, has stuck his foot in his mouth so many times that he’s run out of mouth space. He has gotten into so much trouble with so many comments and so many things he said and done that even in this Republican year, this very Republican year, this race… I don’t think you can even say, “It’s Andrew Cuomo’s to lose anymore.”  I don’t…  there’s really no conceivable way short of some unbelievable disaster on Andrew Cuomo’s part that he will not win this race.

John Sparks
You know, Jay, Andrew Cuomo isn’t the only one who has a stake in the governor’s election.  Control of the Senate is also at stake. I believe Republicans need to pick up two seats in the Senate to regain control of the majority if Cuomo is elected and only one if a Republican is elected governor.  Do you see a change in the control of the New York Senate?

Jay DeDapper
Well, the New York State Senate has been controlled by Republicans, had been controlled by Republicans, basically from the beginning of the century, the last century, the 20th Century, until two years ago.  So, there’s a lot of reason to believe that Democrats’ hold on it is tenuous.  Add to that the fact that the Democrats basically came into office taking over the state Senate for the first time and proceeded to commit fratricide by not being able to decide on a majority leader, having a war over the majority leader, when it’s finally appointing a different majority leader than the one who they thought they were going to have and then failing to accomplish much of anything.  It seems very unlikely at this point the Democrats will be able to retain control of the state Senate. That probably doesn’t mean anything at all for the way the government works because let’s face it, government in Albany doesn’t work no matter who’s in charge, and it’s going to be a tall task for Andrew Cuomo to change what three governors before him have all said they would change and failed to do.  What is at stake, though, is that the state Senate controls to some degree redistricting for congressional seats.  New York has only one Republican congressperson left. If the state Senate is controlled by Republicans, they will be able to redraw the congressional lines because New York is probably going to lose some congressional seats because of population decline, vis-à-vis other parts of the country. It looks like if Republicans were to regain control of the state Senate, which seems fairly likely, they will be able to redraw those lines to the benefit of Republicans who will likely be able to gain a couple of congressional seats and tilt the balance a little bit more towards them from a huge, huge underdog status they now face.

John Sparks
And, I believe Malcolm Smith was quoted as saying that if the Democrats retain a majority, that he would see that they would gerrymander those districts so that Republicans will be in oblivion in New York for the next 20 years.

Jay DeDapper
Yeah, I mean if the Democrats can regain or excuse me, can control the state Senate, can hold onto control, there’s no reason to believe that they would not be able to draw the districts in such a way that there would be no Republican, safe Republican congressional seats. That basically has to do with political affiliation in this state. There are very few Republicans compared to Democrats and independents. It’s five to three to one. And, so finding a Republican seat, even upstate, requires some very special work with the pen. The Republicans have been able to do that. Democrats won’t need a whole lot of effort to draw a Republican district out of existence.

John Sparks
Do you still feel that New York voters are rather lukewarm about these upcoming races.  Say like in the comptroller’s race?

Listen to Part 2:

Jay DeDapper
Yeah, the comptroller’s race is an interesting one because there hasn’t been any significant polling on it. It is the second most powerful seat or the attorney general. Depending on how you look at it, the second or third most powerful statewide elected official, and it can be a very important role, especially if the comptroller is of the opposite party or is in a war with the governor. The comptroller, he or she, can be a real thorn in the side of the governor, and sometimes maybe that’s a good thing.  This race has not gotten very much attention. It has a name on the Republican line that people are going to recognize because John Faso ran for governor before, and it’s got a name on the Democratic side of a guy who’s been comptroller for the last few years but hasn’t made a whole lot of noise.  He… I’m sure he thinks he has, but it’s tough to get through the — to clear the chatter when David Paterson is your meltdown governor, and Andrew Cuomo is your attorney general hard charging on all the banks and consumer frauds and all that. I think that the DiNapoli race, the comptroller race could be a surprise. That could be where a fairly low turnout, the fairly low interest among Democrats plays for the benefit of much more excited Republicans.

John Sparks
Do you think there will be a low turnout?

Jay DeDapper
You know, I hate predicting turnout.  You know we’ve worked together a long time and seen a lot of elections, and turnout predictions almost invariably proved to be untrue. I don’t think turnout in a year where even though we have two Senate seats up, which is a historical anomaly, we’ve got a big governor’s race with a big name, and we’ve got the control of the Senate and Congress in Washington at stake, I don’t get the sense from the people in New York, from talking to people, from overhearing conversations, from seeing the buzz, I don’t get the sense that this is an energized political state right now. So, I would guess if I had to be a betting person and guess, I would put my chips down on not a very large turnout.

John Sparks
We’ve seen polls, and we hear that voters are angry, they’re ready to turn everyone out. They’re really unhappy.  I talked to one of our former colleagues, Gabe Pressman, earlier this morning.  He has been in Utica, and he said that was the sentiment in Utica. And, yet, despite all this that we hear about people not being satisfied, it does not seem like that they’re going to take the time or the energy to go to the polls to make a change.

Jay DeDapper
I mean, I don’t … when I say “low turnout,” I don’t mean that it’s going to be like primary low turnout, like in primaries where 4% or 6% of the people turn out. I just don’t think this is going to be anywhere near obviously a presidential year, and I kind of doubt that in New York it’s going to be as big as 2006, which was a very large off-year election in terms of turnout. I think what Gabe found in Utica is probably right.  Upstate, as you know, Upstate New York has been economically depressed and down at the heels for the most part, not every city, but for the most part for decades. I don’t think you could go up there even in best of times and find people that are particularly happy with government, whether it be in Albany or in Washington, and I think that those folks — I think they are motivated to vote to some degree, although no more or less motivated than they are in any other year when they’re particularly upset.  I do think that it’s worth remembering that Upstate New York is an increasingly small part of the electorate of New York State.  You only have to win New York City and either Long Island or Westchester County, and you can’t be beat.  You just can’t be beat in this state.  There’s just not enough people upstate to make a difference, and I’m not sure that activated, energized, mobilized feeling is as strong in the suburbs here or in the city.  Part of that has to do with the economy.  New York’s economy has weathered this recession better than almost any major city other than Pittsburgh and a couple of bright spots, and the suburbs, while being hit somewhat hard, it’s nothing like Arizona or California or Florida or Nevada or many of these other places where real estate has just sucked the life out of people in the economy. It hasn’t happened here and there may be anger, but it’s not the visceral anger that you see out West and in the South.

John Sparks
I’d like to take a quick look at some other races. Andrew Cuomo of course will be leaving the attorney general’s position one way one or another.  Any contest in the race for attorney general?

Listen to Part 3:

Jay DeDapper
It’s possible.  Eric Schneiderman has certainly won over Democrats.  He’s fairly popular among the Democratic clubs and the folks that can get the vote out if it’s a lowish turnout.  He is popular in the suburbs.  He’s a Manhattan guy, but he’s popular enough in the suburbs, and his Republican opponent doesn’t have enough of a name or, I think, a widespread name recognition and so far not enough money to cut through the clutter.  I think that there’s always a chance that after you get past Andrew Cuomo and maybe Chuck Schumer on the ticket, I think there’s always a chance you’re going to see ticket splitters and people saying, “Screw it — throw the bums out,” and voting for Republicans. I wouldn’t think it’s going to happen in the attorney general race, but it’s always a chance.

John Sparks
Glad you mentioned Schumer. I was about to ask you, the president’s popularity has been on quite a slide. Will that translate into a problem for Schumer or Kirsten Gillibrand?

Jay DeDapper
Both Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand have anemic, and that’s putting it kindly, anemic Republican opposition.  I think this is a year that if Republicans in New York State had gotten their act together and put up a really strong candidate, especially against Kirsten Gillibrand, they might have a seat in the Northeast to win.  Chuck Schumer, that’s a harder nut to crack. Schumer’s got a lot of money. He’s got a lot of popularity.  He’s a campaigner.  As you know, he works harder than anybody you’ve ever seen campaigning and governing and being on the job. He will be a tough person to beat even when Republicans manage to put up a Grade A candidate. This year they have not.  Both of those seats are very safely Democratic.

John Sparks
You know I mentioned a minute ago about the possibility of gerrymandering and redrawing congressional districts. I’m just curious about the congressional seats in New York at this time.  Any that might change hands?

Listen to Part 4:

Jay DeDapper
Oh yeah. I mean, two years ago when Democrats almost swept, they almost took every seat from Republicans, and this would’ve been an entirely Democratic state as represented in Congress, That was the high water mark.  Maybe people didn’t recognize that at the time that that was the high water mark.  This year there are numerous seats that were — that are already kind of 50/50 seats. In other words, half of the people are Democratic, half are Republicans, or better put a third are Democrats, about a third are Republicans, about a third are independents.  There are actually a number of districts that way throughout the state which have elected only in the last two or four years, only in the last two cycles Democrats for the first time in many cases in decades. I think many of those seats are vulnerable. John Hall in the Hudson Valley I think is vulnerable. That’s a seat that was Republican historically.  There’s a seat outside of Albany, historically forever a Republican seat.  Since the Civil War, it was a Republican seat until a couple of terms ago. I think that’s at risk.  Tim Bishop out of the end of Long Island, Suffolk County, probably not in a huge amount of trouble, but facing an extremely wealthy self-financed candidate, and if voters in Suffolk County are angry enough, Tim Bishop could be another victim.  I think New York wakes up the day after the election with at least a couple of more Republican members of the House.

John Sparks
We’re right on top of it.  Do you see anything taking place between now and Election Day?  Politics is dynamic.  Any surprises? Anything you’ve heard of that might change your opinion about what we talked about today?

Jay DeDapper
Nothing that you can see, but that’s the nature and the excitement of politics is that you never know what’s going to happen in the final two weeks of the campaign. Typically, if it’s going to be something that another campaign, an opposing campaign knows about, you actually don’t save it till the final weekend. You start to roll it out about now because it takes a couple of weeks to take hold and to have its effect. We saw that with Chuck Schumer and Al D’Amato when Al D’Amato back in 1992 — 1998, excuse me, called Schumer a putzhead on the radio. That took a few days, about four/five days for Schumer to kind of traction on it, to work it up, that was two weeks out from the election and that was the end of D’Amato.  So, if there’s a surprise out there, if there’s somebody that’s going to screw up, this is the time they’re going to have to do it.  You get too close to Election Day and those kinds of things don’t generally happen and they don’t generally work.  I don’t see anything on the horizon, but who knows?  That’s the fun of politics.

9/15: Day 1: Paladino vs. Cuomo

So, the press (and pollsters, too) are probably pleased that at least the Paladino vs. Cuomo matchup for governor will provide some interesting byplay.  How quickly we all forget the good times when Rick Lazio marched across the stage to confront Hillary Clinton in 2000.  If the 2010 campaign nationally is about anything new and dynamic, then how about a classic outsider-insider contest with a Tea Party flavor right here in New York?

But, not so fast.  Carl Paladino’s come from behind thrashing of Rick Lazio may have been just as much about dissension within the GOP then a tidal wave of discontent rushing down the Erie Canal to Albany.  If you left the GOP convention in NYC in June with the blessings of the party organization, whether for Governor or the two contests for U.S. Senate, then you headed home last night a loser.  Now, Paladino no doubt gets a bounce from his primary victory, is well-funded for the general election contest, and brings his baseball bat as a genuine outsider looking to hit for the cycle.

But, Paladino is largely a political unknown statewide as far as the general electorate is concerned.  And, if you know anything about Andrew Cuomo, expect a concerted effort to portray Paladino as outside the range of acceptability for mainstream New York voters.  Cuomo is the most popular elected official in New York State and enjoys the 2:1 advantage Democrats have over Republicans.  Right now, this has to be viewed as enough to stave off Paladino.

Don’t expect a 40 point win for the son of the greatest governor in the greatest state in the only world we know.   But, look for team Cuomo to revise then unknown candidate Mario Cuomo’s 1982 campaign slogan to something that defines Paladino.  Perhaps, “The better you know him the better you know he’s ‘too right’ for governor.” And, that process of political definition begins today, on Day 1 of Paladino vs. Cuomo.

3/3: The Devil Is in the Poll

Sure, all polls are snapshots in time.  And, because the political world doesn’t pause to allow for the several days it takes to complete the requisite number of voter interviews, occasionally, we get caught mid-poll.  Typically, we adjust and move on.  This was not as easily accomplished, however, in Marist’s most recent poll of New York State voters … a survey that will be forever remembered at the survey center as “The Poll from Hell.”

It is said that the devil is in the details.  It seems he has taken control of the headlines, as well.  What started out on Monday night, February 22nd as a regular measurement of New York’s electorate had become something far different when the results were finally released on March 2nd.

At poll kickoff last Monday, we expected to poll New York voters through Wednesday and start a national survey Thursday night. Tabulate and write the statewide results on Thursday, and, release the results on Friday morning.  How was Governor Paterson doing in his anticipated contest against Andrew Cuomo?  Was Senator Kirsten Gillibrand vulnerable to a challenge from former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr.?  Was New York Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman a threat to disrupt the U.S. Senate picture against Gillibrand or Ford?  But, the devil was already plotting against us.

We got off to a good start.  We completed 292 interviews on Monday and felt everything was on track.  Our scheduling tsunami was nowhere on our radar screen. And, then came record-breaking snows.  Tuesday night’s polling was cancelled due to poor weather. Our optimism to get back on pace following a successful Wednesday night polling session (we now stood at a respectable 646 completed interviews) was short-lived.  Snow knocked us off the map on Thursday and Friday … 154 interviews short of our original goal.

Then, things went even faster downhill.  We were in the middle of a five-way staff conference call on Friday morning planning how to dig our way out of this project when our director of Interactive Media Mary Azzoli alerted us that the scandal-plagued David Paterson had pulled out of the governor’s race.  What to do, now? Should he resign? Could he govern effectively? Was Cuomo now a shoo-in?  The political world, as far as the governor’s race, had turned upside down. At least, the Senate race was intact. Satan, were you eavesdropping?

We turned to Plan B. (it was really Plan Z, but I’ll spare you all the details).  In pollster-ese, we would resume polling on Monday with a separate survey of New York voters on the question of the governor’s political future, include questions about the Gillibrand-Ford Democratic Senate primary (we didn’t have a large enough sample of Democrats from the previous week), eliminate the now-outdated Paterson-Cuomo primary matchup, and take the 646 completed interviews from the previous week as a done deal on the remaining approval ratings and general election toss-ups.  Our ducks were in order again.

The phone room was humming on Monday night.  With the goal line in sight, we took a peek at the preliminary results.  To our surprise New Yorkers didn’t want Governor Paterson to resign. Nothing like a counter-intuitive finding to get our conceptual juices churning. About half an hour later, the pitchfork landed again.  The news hit that Harold Ford Jr. decided not to enter the race. Here we go again.

As midnight on Monday approached, we were putting the finishing touches on our Tuesday morning release.  We would lead with the all-important results on whether Paterson should resign.  To avoid being misleading we would also highlight the public’s concern over his lack of governing ability. That provided the appropriate context. As for the non-existent Gillibrand-Ford Senate race, we called it “What Might Have Been.” It stayed newsworthy thanks to Ford’s claim that he would have prevailed in a race against Gillibrand.  The poll showed the opposite to be the case.  We made it!

Of course, on Tuesday night Mort Zuckerman announced he would not seek the Gillibrand Senate seat.  Nice try, Lucifer.  But, we had already released those poll results earlier in the day.

At the Marist Poll, we jokingly say that no two poll projects are ever alike.  This time to prove the point, the devil had his hand in it. But, we persevered and along the way, paid the devil his due.

2/22: Paterson’s Path to Election

Governor David Paterson became governor under unusual circumstances.  He has served in turbulent times, and oversees a government that is seen by most New Yorkers as dysfunctional.  He has also compiled unprecedentedly low poll numbers.  How low is low?

In Marist’s statewide polls dating back nearly three decades, we find an answer.  Former Governor Mario Cuomo’s lowest approval rating was 32%.  It occurred in the fall of 1994, the year he was ousted from office.   Former Governor George Pataki’s low point was 30% during the spring of 2006.  He opted not to seek a fourth term.   Not surprisingly, the bottom fell out on Former Governor Eliot Spitzer during his sex scandal in March, 2008.  What’s shocking number-wise is that even Spitzer’s 30% approval rating, clocked just before his resignation, exceeded Paterson’s lowest score of 17% this past September and the 26% he currently has.

Governor Paterson finds himself having to accomplish something politically akin to going uphill in an Alpine skiing event.  His spirited and feisty campaign kick-off in Hempstead was a good start.  His inspirational story as someone who has already succeeded mightily against huge personal odds is moving and works when he alludes to the state’s dire circumstances.  He doesn’t quit, he isn’t giving up on New York, and neither will New Yorkers.

But, Paterson needs to do more to connect with New York voters.  He talks about his accomplishments and making tough budget decisions, yet New Yorkers are anxious for results.   Although he scores better on handling the state’s fiscal problems than his overall approval rating, his numbers are even low here.   His claim of being an outsider is probably a reach for a sitting governor and lifetime politician.  And, there’s the significant matter of campaign cash, reluctant endorsements, and the very popular Andrew Cuomo to consider.

In these volatile political times, it is probably not wise to put too much stock in electoral history.  But, Mario Cuomo enjoyed 71% and 64% approval ratings from New Yorkers when he launched his successful re-election bids in 1986 and 1990, respectively.  George Pataki’s ratings were a comparable 59% and 72% when he began his two successful re-election campaigns.

Governor Paterson is in an unenviable position as he seeks a four-year term.  We will be watching the electorate closely in the next few weeks to see if the New Yorkers are responding favorably to his effort.

Muddied Outlook for Paterson in 2010

When pitted against hypothetical opponents in next year’s bid for governor, Governor David Paterson is far from the frontrunner.  In fact, a majority of registered voters in New York State say they would rather vote for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani if the election were held today. 53% would support the Republican compared with 38% who report they would back Paterson, the Democrat.  Paterson continues to lose ground against Giuliani.  The two were in a statistical dead heat when Marist last asked this question in January.  In November, Paterson maintained a healthy edge against Giuliani — 51% to 41%.

The governor fares better when placed up against former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio.  However, a notable proportion of New York voters are undecided when the two are head-to-head.  While 47% say they would support the governor, 35% report they would vote for Lazio.  An additional 18% are unsure about who would receive their vote.

Paterson/Giuliani 2010 Matchup Table
Paterson/Lazio 2010 Matchup Table
An Open Field?

How does the race shape up if Governor Paterson isn’t the Democratic candidate?  Here are a couple of scenarios:

• If Republican Rick Lazio were to campaign against Democratic New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Cuomo would defeat his Republican opponent hands down.  71% of the state’s electorate report they would back Cuomo while just 20% would vote for Lazio.

• Cuomo doesn’t do quite as well against Rudy Giuliani, yet he still receives majority support and has a wide lead against the former mayor.  56% of voters report Cuomo would be their candidate of choice in this hypothetical matchup.  This compares with 39% who would cast their ballot for Giuliani.

Cuomo/Lazio 2010 Matchup Table
Cuomo/Giuliani 2010 Matchup Table

Party’s Over for Paterson? Cuomo’s Our Man, Say NYS Democrats

If next year’s Democratic primary for governor were held today, Governor David Paterson would not be his party’s nominee. In fact, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo receives more than double the support of New York State Democrats than does Paterson. 62% of Democrats in New York State say they would support Cuomo while just 26% would back Paterson. Across the aisle, there’s little question about whom Republicans would want on the ballot. 78% of New York’s GOP say Rudy Giuliani is the best man for the job. Just 17% of Republicans think Rick Lazio is the candidate to turn the state around.

2010 Democratic Primary Table
2010 Republican Primary Table

For full press release

Marist Poll Methodology

AG Cuomo’s Approval Rating Spikes to 71%

New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s job approval rating has jumped 21 percentage points since the Marist Poll last asked this question in October. Cuomo’s approval rating had slipped at that time. However, now, 71% of registered voters in New York State say Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office. Less than one-quarter of the state’s electorate — 23% — gives Cuomo below average marks.

Cuomo Approval Rating Table

For full press release

Marist Poll Methodology

See related: Muddied Outlook for Paterson in 2010 Gubernatorial Race

New Yorkers Favor Cuomo to Replace Clinton

The tides of support have changed in the contest over who voters think should fill Hillary Clinton’s vacant U.S. Senate seat. 40% of registered voters in New York State say Governor David Paterson should appoint New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to the position while 25% believe Caroline Kennedy should assume the role. That’s a marked difference for Cuomo from just one month ago when the Marist Poll showed him and Kennedy in a tie with each receiving 25% of New Yorkers’ support. Kennedy’s backing remains at a standstill.

Read the full post