2/14: NYC Mayoralty: Quinn Leads Democratic Field…Lhota Ahead Among GOP

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will leave office at the end of the year.  So, who could be his successor?  Looking at the Democratic contest, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads her closest opponent by almost three-to-one.

Click Here for Complete February 14, 2013 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Among registered Democratic voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

• 37% Christine Quinn
• 13% Bill Thompson
• 12% Bill de Blasio
•   9% John Liu
•   2% Sal Albanese
•   1% Other
• 26% Undecided

“An open seat is attracting a crowd,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Right now, Quinn is in the driver’s seat, but the race is still very fluid.”

Quinn has improved her standing among New York City Democrats.  In fact, her support has rebounded to more than what it was last spring.  When NY1-Marist reported this question in October, Quinn received the support of 23% of Democrats.  15% backed former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  Nine percent gave their support to current City Comptroller John Liu while Public Advocate Bill de Blasio garnered 8%.  Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer had 6%, and the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, received 2%.  At that time, 37% were unsure.  In NY1-Marist’s April survey, 32% of New York City Democrats supported Quinn.

How committed to their choice are Democrats with a candidate preference?  30% strongly support their pick.  34% are somewhat behind their candidate while 32% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

What are New York City Democrats’ impressions of these mayoral aspirants?

• 65% have a favorable opinion of Quinn while 17% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
• Looking at Thompson, nearly half — 49% — have a favorable impression of him while 20% do not.  31% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• 48% of New York City Democrats have a positive view of de Blasio while 20% have an unfavorable one.  32% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• When it comes to Liu, 43% have a favorable impression of him while 27% have an unfavorable one.  30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Only 26% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Albanese while 20% have an unfavorable view of him.  A majority — 54% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

On the Republican side, former MTA Chairman Joe Lhota has the advantage over opponents for his party’s nomination but by no means a lock.  A majority of Republicans citywide — 55% — are undecided.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

• 20% Joe Lhota
•   8% George McDonald
•   5% John Catsimatidis
•   4% Tom Allon
•   3% Adolfo Carrion
•   2% A.R. Bernard
•   3% Other
• 55% Undecided

Hopefuls in the Republican field lack name recognition.  Except for Lhota, a majority of New York City Republicans do not offer an impression of the potential Republican nominees for mayor.

• 42% of GOP voters think well of Lhota while 12% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• 30% have a favorable view of Businessman John Catsimatidis while 14% have an unfavorable one.  A majority — 56% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• When it comes to former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion, 20% perceive him positively while 21% do not.  59% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Advocate George McDonald is viewed well by 18% of Republicans citywide.  17%, however, have an unfavorable impression of him.  Nearly two-thirds — 65% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Just 16% say they have a positive opinion of Manhattan Media publisher Allon.  This compares with 17% who have an unfavorable view of him.  67% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Only 12% think well of Reverend A.R. Bernard.  18% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate, and seven in ten — 70% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

While former Congressman Anthony Weiner has not announced a candidacy for public office, there has been speculation about his political intentions.  Weiner, though, has a perception problem.  Only 30% of registered voters in New York City view him favorably.  46% have an unfavorable impression of him while 24% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Adolfo Carrion Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Tom Allon Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: A.R. Bernard Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

From the Primary to the General…Democrats Outdistance GOP Hopeful Lhota
 
When it comes to November’s general election, how do the candidates fare in head-to-head matchups?  Among New York City registered voters:

• Quinn — 64% — outpaces Lhota — 18%.  18% are undecided.
• If Thompson were to face-off against Lhota, Thompson — 61% — surpasses Lhota — 19%.  20% are undecided.
• When de Blasio and Lhota square off, 60% back de Blasio compared with 18% for Lhota.  22% are undecided.
• 56% are for Liu while 20% are behind Lhota.  23% are undecided.
• In a race between Albanese and Lhota, 52% support Albanese compared with 21% for Lhota.  27% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Thompson/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Liu/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Albanese/Lhota

Third Party Candidate Makes Little Difference
 
If Adolfo Carrion decided to run on an independent line, how would the race shape up?

Among New York City registered voters:

• Quinn has the support of 59% to 17% for Lhota.  Carrion receives 8%, and 17% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota/Carrion

Former Mayors Could Do More Harm than Good in General Election, But…
 
A candidate endorsement by Mayor Bloomberg may not bolster that candidate’s prospects.  If Bloomberg were to endorse a candidate, 36% of the electorate would be more likely to vote for that candidate while 44% would be less likely to vote for him or her.  14% report Bloomberg’s endorsement would make no difference to their vote, and 7% are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 28% said they would be more inclined to cast their ballot for a Bloomberg-endorsed candidate while 42% believed such a backing would make them less likely to support that candidate.  18% thought it would make no difference to their vote, and 11% were unsure.

What if former Mayor Rudy Giuliani were to endorse a candidate?  While Giuliani’s backing would do little to bolster such a candidate in the general election, it could pay dividends in the Republican primary.

Among New York City registered voters, 38% would be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Giuliani while 46% would be less likely to vote for that person.  Nine percent report it would make little difference to their vote, and 6% are unsure.

However, among Republicans citywide, 71% would be more inclined to support a candidate who receives Giuliani’s stamp of approval.  17% would be less likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 9% say it wouldn’t matter one way or the other.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

Table: Impact of Giuliani Endorsement

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/18: Quinn Still Leader of Democratic Field, But…

Looking ahead to the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has the support of 23% of Democrats citywide.  Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson follows with 15%.  Nine percent of registered Democrats citywide are for current Comptroller John Liu while 8% support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio.  Six percent back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, receives 2%.  Nearly four in ten registered Democrats in New York City — 37% — are unsure.

Click Here for Complete October 18, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“There’s still a long way to go before Democrats go to the polls,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Nearly four in ten Democrats in the city are undecided.”

When compared with NY1-Marist’s April survey, more Democrats in the city are unsure about whom to support in the contest.  At that time, more than three in ten New York City Democrats — 32% — favored Quinn.  12% supported Thompson, and 10% were for de Blasio.  Liu received the backing of 9% while Stringer garnered 7%.  Only 1% of Democrats were behind Allon, and 29% were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Plurality Says, “No Go” for Kelly Mayoralty

46% of registered voters in New York City do not want Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to run for mayor.  35% support a Kelly candidacy.  19% are unsure.

In NY1-Marist’s July 2011 survey, voters divided.  42% believed Kelly should stay out of the race while the same proportion — 42% — wanted him to throw his hat into the ring.  16%, at that time, were unsure.

Other well-known names have been bandied about as possible mayoralty candidates.  How do they fare?  58% of registered voters citywide do not want Anthony Weiner to run for mayor while one in four — 25% — does.  17% are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since NY1-Marist last reported it in July of 2011.  At that time, 64% of voters citywide did not want Weiner to seek the office while 26% did.  One in ten, at that time, was unsure.

When it comes to Eliot Spitzer, 57% of registered voters want him to stay out of the contest while 30% would like to see him enter it.  13% are unsure.  Here, too, there is little difference from the last time this question was asked in July of 2011.  At that time, the same proportion — 57% — reported Spitzer should not run for mayor while 33% thought he should.  Nine percent, then, were unsure.

What about actor Alec Baldwin?  66% of registered voters say they don’t want the actor to turn politician.  18%, though, would like to see Baldwin enter the contest.  16% are unsure.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Actor Alec Baldwin 2013 Mayoralty?

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

45% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 10% who say he is doing an excellent job and 35% who report he is doing a good one.  32% report his performance is fair while 20% call it poor.  Only three percent are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks.  Included here were 12% who said he was doing an excellent job and 32% who believed he was doing a good one.  33% gave the mayor average grades while 22% thought his performance was subpar.  Only 1%, then, was unsure.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Bloomberg’s Legacy

How will Mayor Bloomberg be remembered after he leaves office?  43% of registered voters believe he will leave a positive legacy.  This includes 12% who think he will be remembered as one of the city’s best mayors and 31% who say he will be considered an above average mayor.  34% think Bloomberg will be thought of as an average mayor while 12% report he will be remembered as a below average one.  Eight percent have low expectations and say Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

Little has changed on this question since April.  At that time, 39% thought Bloomberg would leave a positive legacy behind.  39% said he would be considered an average mayor while 13% believed he would be looked upon as a subpar mayor.  Nine percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of New York City’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

Majority Remains Optimistic about the Direction of the City

51% of registered voters citywide say the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong one.  10% are unsure.

Here, too, the findings are similar to the NY1-Marist April survey when 52% thought New York City was on the right course.  More than four in ten voters — 42% — said it was on the wrong one, and 6% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

9/26: 2013 NYC Mayoral Field Competitive…Quinn, Markowitz Lead the Pack

According to this NY1-Marist Poll, if the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn would receive 20% of the vote while 16% would cast their ballot for Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz. Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson is within striking distance with the support of 12% of Democrats.  In this hypothetical contest, 10% are behind current Comptroller John Liu, 7% back Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer takes 6% of the vote.  Publisher Tom Allon garners just 2%, and one in four Democrats — 25% — are undecided.

Click Here for Complete September 26, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“With twenty-five percent of Democrats undecided and the field lacking a dominant top tier of candidates, this is a campaign story still to be told,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Those looking to succeed Mayor Bloomberg might welcome his support.  But, if the numbers hold, don’t expect anyone to make his endorsement the centerpiece of their campaign.”

In NY1-Marist’s July survey, 16% of Democratic voters supported Quinn, 15% backed Thompson, and 14% were for Markowitz.  Nine percent, at the time, were behind Liu, 7% said they would vote for de Blasio, and 6% thought they would cast their ballot for Stringer.  Only 1% backed Allon, and 32% were undecided.

If Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz decides not to run for the office, Quinn and Thompson are neck and neck.  Without Markowitz, 22% of Democrats are for Quinn followed closely by Thompson with 18%.  John Liu receives 12%, Bill de Blasio nets 10%, and Scott Stringer garners 7% of the vote.  Two percent back Tom Allon, and 28% are undecided.

What kind of influence could an endorsement by Mayor Michael Bloomberg have on a mayoral candidate?  Nearly half of registered voters in New York City consider it the kiss of death.  48% report an endorsement by Bloomberg would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, 30% think it would make them more likely to vote for one, and 15% say it makes no difference to their vote.  Only 8% are unsure.

Nearly half of Democratic voters citywide — 47% — report an endorsement by Bloomberg would make them less likely to vote for a candidate.  29% say it would make them more likely to support a candidate, and 17% think it would not make a difference.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (without Marty Markowitz)

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

7/28: Democratic Race for NYC Mayor Wide Open

In the aftermath of former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal about one-third of New York City’s Democrats, 32%, are undecided about whom to support in the Democratic primary for mayor in 2013.  The leading contenders are City Council Speaker Christine Quinn with 16%, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson with 15%, and Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz with 14%.  They are followed by New York City Comptroller John Liu who receives 9%, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio who has the support of 7%, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer who garners 6%, and Publisher Tom Allon who is backed by 1% of Democrats citywide.

Click Here for Complete July 28, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“With Weiner out of the picture, there are twice as many undecided voters than voters who support any one of the current contenders,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “That makes for a very fluid contest.”

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, now former Congressman Anthony Weiner received the backing of 18% of Democrats in New York City.  Thompson took 15% while Liu and Quinn each received 13% of the Democratic vote citywide.  At that time, 9% of Democrats reported they were pulling for de Blasio while 4% backed Stringer.  27%, then, were undecided.  Markowitz was not included in the previous survey.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Voters Want Weiner, Spitzer Out of 2013 Mayoralty

Citywide few voters, including those within their own party, want the sex scandal plagued pols, former Congressman Anthony Weiner or former Governor Eliot Spitzer, to seek the New York City mayoralty in 2013.  Only 26% would like to see Weiner in the race and just 33% would want Spitzer to enter the contest.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty? (Over Time)

New York City Voters Divide Over Top Cop Candidacy

How do New York City voters feel about Police Commissioner Ray Kelly becoming “Candidate Kelly?”  The electorate divides.  Citywide, 42%, would like to see Kelly run for mayor and 42% say he should stay out of the race.  16% are unsure.

Among Democrats, 41% would like Kelly to toss his proverbial hat into the ring.  This compares with 54% of Republicans and 35% of non-enrolled voters who say the same.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

4/1: The 2013 Democratic Field for NYC Mayor: No Clear Candidate

The pool of potential 2013 Democratic mayoral candidates is wide, but does anyone stand out in the minds of voters?  Not yet.  According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 18% of Democratic voters citywide say, if the primary were held today, they would support Congressman Anthony Weiner.  Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson takes 15%.  Comptroller John Liu receives 13% of the Democratic vote as does City Council Speaker Christine Quinn.  Nine percent of Democrats say they would support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio while 4% would back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.  A notable 27% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete April 1, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

There has been little movement on this question since Marist last reported it in October.  At that time, 21% supported Weiner, 16% backed Thompson, and 10% threw their support behind Liu.   Quinn and de Blasio received the support of 9% and 8%, respectively, while 4% supported Stringer at the time.  32% were undecided.

“With no clear front-runner and a large number of undecided voters, this contest is likely to attract a crowd of candidates,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”This is not unusual for an ‘open’ seat.”

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Just Don’t Do It, Spitz!

There’s one possible candidate who many voters definitely don’t want to see throw his hat into the 2013 mayoralty ring.  62% of registered voters in New York City say they would prefer former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer not run for mayor.  29%, however, say he should.  10% are unsure.

When Marist last asked this question in October, similar proportions of voters held these views.  62% of voters did not want Spitzer to make a bid for mayor while 24% did.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Spitzer can’t even gain traction in his own party.  More than six in ten Democratic voters — 62% — do not want him to seek the mayoralty while 29% do.  Nine percent are unsure.  In Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions of Democrats citywide held these views.

Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid
Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid Over Time

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

4/13: Campaign 2013: No Clear Democratic Front-runner in NYC Mayoralty

Three years is a lifetime in politics, but if the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor were held today, 18% of registered Democrats would support Congressman Anthony Weiner.  Former Comptroller Bill Thompson follows closely behind with 15% of the vote.  And, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn receives the support of 12%.  10% of the city’s Democrats report they would back Public Advocate Bill de Blasio. Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. and Comptroller John Liu each garners 9% of the vote. More than a quarter of New York City Democrats — 27% — are undecided.

“There are plenty of potential candidates for 2013, but no clear front-runner,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “With a long way to go, it’s not surprising that ‘undecided’ best reflects the outlook of Democratic voters at this time.”

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Click Here for Complete April 13, 2010 NYC Poll Release and Tables

The Kelly Question

What if New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly decided to run as the Republican candidate for mayor?  How would he fare against the Democrats’ top contenders?

When pitted against Congressman Anthony Weiner, Weiner receives a majority of registered voters in New York City — 52% — to Kelly’s 33%.  15% are unsure.

New York’s top cop does better when matched up against City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and former Comptroller Bill Thompson.  In the hypothetical contest against Quinn, she receives 45% of the vote to Kelly’s 37%.  18% are undecided.

And, Kelly receives a similar proportion of the vote when he and Thompson face off.  Here, 45% of voters citywide say they would support Thompson while 36% would back Kelly.  19% are unsure.

Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Weiner
Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Quinn
Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Thompson

Marist Poll Methodology