8/16: Tight Race in Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor… Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

August 16, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With less than a month to go until Primary Day, Democrats Christine Quinn and Bill de Blasio are locked in a tight race in their pursuit of the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor.  Bill Thompson is currently in third.  Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, just eight percentage points separate these three candidates, and only six percentage points are between them among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.  The scandal-ridden Anthony Weiner trails in fourth place.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 21% Bill de Blasio
  • 16% Bill Thompson
  • 12% Anthony Weiner
  •   6% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   3% Other
  • 15% Undecided

Click Here for Complete August 16, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“It’s been a topsy-turvy summer, and many Democratic voters are still waiting to be convinced,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although voters have yet to sort things out, Bill de Blasio has shown the biggest gain in the last couple of weeks.”

It was a very different contest just three weeks ago when the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question on July 25th.  At that time, Quinn — 25% — outpaced Weiner — 16% — by nine percentage points among New York City Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  De Blasio and Thompson each received the support of 14% of the Democratic electorate.  At that time, 7% backed John Liu while Erick Salgado had 2%.  One percent supported Sal Albanese, 2% were for another candidate, and 19% were undecided.

Where Are Top-Tier Candidates’ Strengths?

  • Quinn does better among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 33%, live in Manhattan — 30%, or who approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office — 29%.  She also does well among Democrats who are Catholic — 28% or Latino — 27%.
  • De Blasio does well among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 36%, who are Jewish — 30%, who live in Manhattan — 27%, or who earn $50,000 or more annually — 27%.  De Blasio has improved his standing among Democrats who are African American.  He currently receives the support of 20% of African American Democrats compared with 10% in the last poll.
  • Thompson does better among Democrats who are African American — 22%, but generally receives similar support from most other groups.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, de Blasio and Quinn each receive 24%.  18% back Thompson.  Weiner has the support of 11% of Democrats who are likely to cast a ballot while 5% are behind Liu.  Two percent are for Salgado, and 1% backs Albanese.  Credico has the support of 1%, and Grimaldi receives less than one percent.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

When it comes to intensity of support, a plurality of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference — 43% — say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  37% are somewhat committed to their pick while 17% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 42% said they were firmly committed to their candidate.  32% were somewhat behind their choice while 23% thought they might change their mind before casting their ballot.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

48% of de Blasio’s supporters say they will not waiver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 41% of New York City Democrats who rally for Thompson and 35% of those who are for Quinn.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Lhota Leads Catsimatidis for GOP Nod

Looking at the contest for the Republican nomination for mayor, Joe Lhota continues to have the advantage over John Catsimatidis.  George McDonald trails his GOP opponents by double-digits.  However, three in ten Republicans in New York City have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small number of registered Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 33% Joe Lhota
  • 22% John Catsimatidis
  • 12% George McDonald
  •   2% Other
  • 30% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, Lhota — 28% — led Catsimatidis — 21% — by 7 percentage points among New York City Republicans, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  10% backed George McDonald, and 1% were for another candidate.  40% were undecided.

How strongly committed are Republicans to their choice of candidate?  43% of those with a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice.  34% are somewhat behind their pick while 17% might change their mind.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Republican Mayoralty Candidate (NYC Republicans with a Candidate Preference)

No Runaway in Runoff Races… But de Blasio has Edge 

If none of the candidates receive 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary for mayor, a runoff for the Democratic nomination will be held.  How would the top-tier candidates fare in such a situation?

Among New York City Democrats:

  • When de Blasio and Quinn face off, de Blasio receives the support of 44% of registered Democrats compared with 42% for Quinn.  14% are undecided.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s June poll, Quinn — 47% — outpaced de Blasio — 33% — by 14 percentage points.  21% were undecided. Among likely Democratic voters, 47% are currently for de Blasio compared with 40% for Quinn.  12% are undecided.
  • Thompson — 44% — and Quinn — 43% — are also neck and neck among registered Democrats.  12% are undecided.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question nearly two months ago, Quinn received the support of 42% of Democrats compared with 40% for Thompson.  18%, at the time, were undecided.  Looking at likely Democratic voters this time, Thompson garners 47% to 42% for Quinn.  11% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives 44% compared with 36% for Thompson in a runoff among registered Democrats.  20% are undecided.  Among likely Democratic voters in this   survey, 47% are for de Blasio while 36% back Thompson.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Thompson vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Boost for de Blasio… Weiner’s Favorability at New Low

A majority of registered Democrats citywide view the top-tier Democratic candidates running for mayor positively.  This includes de Blasio who enjoys a bump in his positive rating.  Anthony Weiner’s favorability rating has sunk to an all-time low.

  • Nearly six in ten New York City Democrats — 59% — have a positive impression of de Blasio while 14% have an unfavorable view of the candidate.  26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, 52% thought highly of de Blasio.  19% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 56% of registererd Democrats have a favorable view of Thompson.  18% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In June, 60% had a positive opinion of Thompson, and 16% had an unfavorable impression of him.  25%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of registered Democrats — 54% — has a favorable impression of Quinn.  32% have an unfavorable opinion of her while 13% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In June, 57% thought well of Quinn, 29% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • When it comes to Weiner, 63% of registered Democrats citywide have an unfavorable opinion of him.  26% think well of him while 11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 55% had an unfavorable opinion of Weiner.  30% had a positive impression of the candidate, and 15% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

 

Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

In the Democratic primary for New York City comptroller, Eliot Spitzer receives majority support — 53% — among New York City registered Democrats including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  This compares with 34% for Scott Stringer.  One percent is for another candidate, and 11% are undecided.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 49% backed Spitzer, and 32% were for Stringer.  Two percent backed another candidate, and 17% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 54% are behind Spitzer while 36% are for Stringer.  One percent backs another candidate, and 9% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer — 48% — led Stringer — 36% — by 12 percentage points among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

48% of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference for comptroller strongly support their choice.  37% are somewhat committed to their candidate while 14% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

More registered Democrats today are strongly committed to their candidate selection for comptroller.  When this question was last reported on July 11th, 39% of Democrats with a candidate preference said they were firmly committed to their choice, and 36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick.  22% thought they might vote differently, and 2% were unsure.

A majority of Spitzer’s supporters — 51% — say they are firmly committed to their candidate.  This compares with 43% of Stringer’s backers who say the same.  There has been a notable increase in the proportion of Democrats who strongly support Stringer.  In early July, 30% of Stringer’s supporters were firmly committed to him.  This compares with 47% of those who firmly backed Spitzer at that time.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Comptroller Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Majority of Democrats Are Undecided in Public Advocate Race 

In the contest for the Democratic nomination for New York City’s public advocate, 51% of registered Democrats are undecided about which candidate to support.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 16% Letitia James
  • 12% Catherine Guerriero
  •   9% Daniel Squadron
  •   3% Reshma Saujani
  •   2% Sidique Wai
  •   7% Other
  • 51% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in its June 26th poll, James received the support of 17% of New York City registered Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  16% supported Guerriero.  Eight percent backed Squadron, and 4% were for Saujani.  Less than one percent supported another candidate, and 54% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 16% support James. Guerriero and Squadron each receives the backing of 12%.  Saujani has 3%, and 2% are for Wai.  Six percent want to elect another candidate, and 49% are undecided.

Among registered Democrats with a candidate preference for public advocate, 38% are strongly committed to their candidate.  34% somewhat back their choice while 25% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

In June, 34% strongly supported their candidate.  43% were somewhat behind their choice for public advocate while 20% reported they might change their mind.  Two percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

44% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 11% who say he is doing an excellent job and 33% who think he is doing a good one.  31% rate his performance as fair while 21% report he is doing poorly in office.  Five percent are unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 11th, similar proportions held these views.  46% said Bloomberg was doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  28% gave him fair grades while 21% believed his performance fell short.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)


 

A City on Track?

46% of registered voters in the Big Apple believe New York City is moving in the right direction.  40% think it is traveling in the wrong direction, and 14% are unsure.  This is the first time since September 2011 that the proportion of voters citywide who think the city is on the right course has fallen below 50%.  At that time, 42% said the city was on track, 52% reported it was off course, and 6% were unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in July, a slim majority of voters — 51% — said the city was moving in the right direction.  35% believed it needed a new course, and 14% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

7/25: Quinn Reclaims Lead from Weiner in Democratic Primary… Should Weiner Drop Out? Dems Divide

In light of new revelations that Anthony Weiner continued to engage in lewd online behavior after he resigned from Congress two years ago, Weiner now trails Christine Quinn in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor.  In this first poll conducted entirely after the latest scandalous details emerged, Quinn now outdistances Weiner by 9 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Christine Quinn
  • 16% Anthony Weiner
  • 14% Bill de Blasio
  • 14% Bill Thompson
  •   7% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 19% Undecided

Click Here for Complete July 25, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll*

“For many Democrats the latest revelations about Anthony Weiner are more of the same, only more so,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Weiner has lost his lead and his negatives are at an all-time high.”

There has been a 14 percentage point swing in the contest between Quinn and Weiner.  As noted, Quinn leads Weiner by 9 percentage points.  When the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question in June, Weiner — 25% — edged Quinn — 20% — by 5 percentage points among New York City Democrats including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Bill Thompson received the support of 13%.  At that time, 10% backed Bill de Blasio while 8% were for John Liu.  Erick Salgado had the support of 2%, and 1% was behind Sal Albanese.  One percent backed another candidate, and 18% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 26% are for Quinn compared with 17% for de Blasio who is in a statistical tie for second with Weiner at 16% and Thompson with 15%.  Liu has the backing of 7%, Salgado garners 2%, and 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 15% are undecided.

How committed to their choice of candidate are New York City Democrats with their candidate preference?  42% say they strongly support their choice.  32% are somewhat behind their pick while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 36% of Democrats with a candidate preference reported they were firmly in their candidate’s camp.  38% were somewhat behind their pick, and 23% thought they might change their minds before Election Day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Democrats who are for Weiner — 52% — are still more committed to their choice of candidate than backers of the other leading contenders.  37% of Quinn’s supporters strongly support her.  35% of Thompson’s backers have a similar intensity of support, and 33% of Democrats behind de Blasio are firmly committed to their candidate.  In June, 45% of Weiner’s supporters said they strongly supported him.  This compares with 34% of Quinn’s backers who expressed a similar intensity of support.  Results for Thompson and de Blasio are not available for the previous poll.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Weiner’s Negative Rating Soars

There has been a dramatic shift in Democrats’ impressions of Anthony Weiner from a similar poll conducted last month before the latest online sexual relationship came to light.  In the current survey, a majority of Democrats citywide have an unfavorable impression of Anthony Weiner.  55% have this view while three in ten — 30% — have a favorable opinion of the candidate.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  This represents the highest negative rating Anthony Weiner has received this election season.

In last month’s NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, a majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — had a favorable view of Weiner while 36% had an unfavorable opinion of him.  11%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

“New York City Democrats were willing to give Anthony Weiner a second chance but are reluctant to excuse his behavior now,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Democrats Divide Over Future of Weiner’s Candidacy

Despite the tawdry details of Weiner’s online sexual relationships, Weiner vows to fight on in his quest to become the next mayor of New York City.  But, do Democrats citywide want Weiner to remain in the race?  47% do while 43% want him to drop out of the contest.  10% are unsure.

What would the race look like without Weiner?  Quinn outpaces her closest competitor, Thompson, by 15 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner:

  • 32% Christine Quinn
  • 17% Bill Thompson
  • 16% Bill de Blasio
  •   9% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 20% Undecided

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 32% support Quinn compared with 20% for de Blasio.  18% are behind Thompson while Liu receives the support of 9%.  Two percent back Salgado while 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Table: Should Anthony Weiner Drop Out of the Race for New York City Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor without Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Do Weiner’s Online Sexcapades Matter to Democrats?

46% of New York City Democrats say Weiner’s online sexual relationships will impact their vote.  Included here are 33% who report Weiner’s activities will matter a great deal to their decision and 13% who say Weiner’s actions will matter a good amount.  49%, however, say these activities matter little or not at all when deciding their vote.  This includes 14% who say these revelations matter a little and 35% who say they don’t matter at all.  Five percent are unsure.

Anthony Weiner is not the only politician seeking forgiveness from the public.  Following a prostitution scandal that forced him out of office, former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is running for New York City comptroller.  However, Democrats citywide find Weiner’s behavior more egregious than Spitzer’s actions.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist asked Democrats earlier this month if Spitzer’s sex scandal would impact their vote, only 34% believed it would have an effect on how they cast their ballot, and 62% reported it would matter little or not at all.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: Impact of Weiner’s Online Sexual Relationships on Vote (NYC Democrats)

A Matter of Trust?  Abedin’s Support Does Little to Help Weiner

In a press conference on Tuesday, Huma Abedin, Anthony Weiner’s wife, publicly supported her husband and said she had forgiven him.  However, her commitment does little to help Weiner’s electoral chances.  Almost three in four Democrats — 73% — report Abedin’s support has no impact on how much trust they have in Weiner to be mayor.  15% say her backing makes them more likely to trust him while 12% say it makes them less likely to do so.

Table: Does Huma Abedin’s Support of Anthony Weiner Make You More or Less Likely to Trust Weiner as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Have Weiner’s Chances Run Out? 

Can New York City Democrats move beyond Weiner’s salacious activities and give him another chance?  Again, there is a divide.  47% believe Weiner deserves another chance in the public arena while 45% disagree and say he does not have the character to be mayor.  Nine percent are unsure.

When Marist last reported a similar question in May, 59% of Democrats thought Weiner should be given a second chance.  35% said he did not have the character to be mayor, and 6% were unsure.

Democrats are more willing to grant redemption to Eliot Spitzer.  Two weeks ago, 67% said Spitzer deserved another chance while one in four — 25% — believed he did not have the character to be comptroller.  Eight percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Does Anthony Weiner Deserve Another Chance? (NYC Democrats)

Just Four in Ten Think Weiner Would Do Well as Mayor 

Just 40% of Democrats citywide think Weiner would do an excellent or good job as mayor.  This includes 15% who say he would be an excellent mayor and 25% who report he would be a good one.  47% do not think he would excel as mayor, including 19% who believe he would do a fair job in the office while more than one in four — 28% — predict he would perform poorly in City Hall.  13% are unsure.

Once again, New York City Democrats express more faith in Eliot Spitzer.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s early July survey, 57% thought Spitzer would do either an excellent — 18% — or good — 39% — job as comptroller.  19% reported he would do a fair job, and 12% said he would fall short.  12%, then, were unsure.

Table: How Would Anthony Weiner Perform as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Spitzer with 17 Percentage Point Lead in the Race for NYC Comptroller 

Where does the contest for New York City comptroller stand?  Spitzer — 49% — leads Scott Stringer — 32% — by 17 percentage points among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Spitzer’s lead has widened.  Earlier this month, 42% of Democrats supported Spitzer while 33% were for Stringer.  One percent backed another candidate, and 24% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 48% support Spitzer compared with 36% for Stringer.  One percent supports another candidate, and 14% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer led Stringer 44% to 36% among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

6/26: Weiner Surpasses Quinn among NYC Dems…Lhota Tops GOP Field in Quest for NYC Mayoralty

A month after former Congressman Anthony Weiner announced his candidacy for New York City Mayor, Weiner has moved ahead of his competitors.  He now edges New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn by five percentage points in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Anthony Weiner
  • 20% Christine Quinn
  • 13% Bill Thompson
  • 10% Bill de Blasio
  •   8% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Other
  • 18% Undecided

Click Here for Complete June 26, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll*

“The Weiner candidacy has scrambled the contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, nearly one in five Democrats are undecided, and almost two-thirds are not firmly committed to a candidate which makes for a lot of persuadable voters.”

The two frontrunners have traded places.  In May, shortly after Weiner announced his candidacy, 24% of Democrats in New York City supported Quinn while Weiner received the support of 19%.  Bill de Blasio garnered 12%, followed closely by Thompson with 11%.  Eight percent backed Liu while 1% supported Albanese.  Less than 1% backed Salgado while 1% was behind another candidate.  23% of New York City Democrats were undecided.

By borough:

  • In Queens and Staten Island, Weiner — 30% — leads Quinn — 20%.
  • In Brooklyn, Weiner — 23% — also has the advantage over Quinn — 16%.
  • In the Bronx, both Weiner and Quinn each receive the support of 21%.
  • In Manhattan, Quinn — 27% — edges Weiner — 23%.

By gender:

  • While Weiner — 29% — is ahead of Quinn — 19% — among men who are Democrats, Weiner — 22% — and Quinn — 21% — are in a close contest among women.

How strongly do New York City Democrats with a candidate preference support their choice?  36% are firmly committed to their pick.  38% are somewhat in their candidate’s camp while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.  There has been little change on this question since last month when 39% expressed strong support for their candidate.  35%, at that time, were somewhat committed to their pick while 25% said they could change their minds.  Two percent were unsure.

When it comes to the intensity of support for the two frontrunners, Weiner still has the edge.  45% of Democrats who back the former Congressman say they are firmly committed to him while 34% of those who are for Quinn proffer the same level of support.  In Marist’s previous survey, 43% of candidate Weiner’s supporters and 30% of candidate Quinn’s backers vowed not to waver in their level of commitment.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Weiner has the backing of 25%.  Quinn runs second with 21% while 14% are for Thompson.  13% supports de Blasio while Liu receives 8%.  Two percent are in Salgado’s camp while 1% supports Albanese.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 16% are undecided.

Looking at the Republican contest, Joe Lhota is ahead of his closest competitor, John Catsimatidis, by seven percentage points.  George McDonald is in third.  A notable 40% citywide have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small proportion of Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 28% Joe Lhota
  • 21% John Catsimatidis
  • 10% George McDonald
  •   1% Other
  • 40% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, Lhota — 20% — outpaced George McDonald, by 12 percentage points.  At that time, 8% of Republicans citywide supported McDonald.  Catsimatidis received the support of 5% of the vote while Tom Allon — 4% — Adolfo Carrion — 3% — and A.R. Bernard — 2% — rounded out the field.  Three percent, then, supported another candidate, and a majority — 55% — was undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Quinn and Weiner in Tight Race in Runoff …Thompson Runs Competitively

If none of the Democratic candidates receives 40% of the vote, how would they fare in a runoff?  When Quinn — 44% — and Weiner — 42% — face off, they vie for the lead.  14% of New York City Democrats are undecided.

Weiner has gained support during the last month.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 48% of New York City Democrats backed Quinn while 33% supported Weiner.  Almost one in five — 18% — was undecided.

Among New York City Democrats:

  • Thompson has caught up to Quinn.  In a runoff scenario, Quinn — 42% — and Thompson — 40% — are now neck and neck.  18% are undecided.  In May, Quinn — 44% — led Thompson — 34% — by 10 percentage points.  22% were undecided.
  • Against de Blasio, Quinn has 47% compared with 33% for de Blasio.  More than one in five Democrats — 21% — is undecided.  There has been little change on this question.  In Marist’s previous survey, Quinn — 48% — outdistanced de Blasio — 30%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • In a runoff against Liu, Quinn has the support of 49% while Liu garners 32%.  19% are undecided.  In May, a majority of Democrats — 53% — backed Quinn against Liu — 25%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • Thompson — 42% — and Weiner — 41% — are competitive in this hypothetical runoff contest.  18% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 47% — leads Liu — 35% — among New York City Democrats.  19% are undecided.
  • In a runoff scenario against de Blasio, 44% are for Weiner while 39% are for de Blasio.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Sharpton Endorsement Would Do Little to Boost Electoral Chances

If Reverend Al Sharpton were to endorse one of the Democratic candidates for mayor, just 25% of Democrats citywide say they would be more likely to vote for that candidate.  However, a plurality — 45% — would be less likely to do so.  One in five — 20% — reports such an endorsement would make no difference to their vote.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.

There are racial differences.  Almost four in ten African American Democrats — 39% — would be more likely to support a candidate with Reverend Sharpton’s endorsement.  27% would be less likely to vote for such a candidate, and 22% report it would make no difference to their vote.  Among white Democrats, a majority — 52% — would be less inclined to back a candidate with Mr. Sharpton’s backing.  17% would be more likely to do so, and 23% say it would not impact their vote.  Nearly half of Latino Democrats — 49% — would be less likely to support a candidate with Sharpton’s endorsement.  26% would be more likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 14% report it would make no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Sharpton Endorsement

Most Dems Still Viewed Positively, But…

Most of the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination are viewed favorably by those in their party.  While Christine Quinn’s favorability rating remains strong, it continues to decline.  Weiner and Thompson, in contrast, currently enjoy a boost in their favorability ratings.

  • Six in ten Democrats in New York City — 60% — have a good impression of Thompson while 16% do not.  25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Thompson’s favorability rating is up from last month when 52% of Democrats thought well of him.  17% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Quinn, 57% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of her while 29% have an unfavorable view of her.  14% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Quinn’s positive rating has dipped slightly while her negative rating has inched up.  In May, six in ten Democrats — 60% — had a favorable view of Quinn.  26% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • A majority of Democrats — 52% — view Weiner well while 36% do not.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Democrats divided in May when 44% had a favorable opinion of Weiner, 44% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 12% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — have a favorable impression of Bill de Blasio.  19% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, half of Democrats in the city — 50% — had a positive view of de Blasio while 19% had a negative one.  30% had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A plurality of Democrats — 47% — have a favorable opinion of Liu.  31% have a lesser view of the candidate, and more than one in five — 22% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  These findings are similar to those reported in May when 45% of Democrats had a positive impression of the candidate, 31% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Democrats’ impressions of Salgado, the candidate has much still to do to become known among the city’s Democrats.  Nearly six in ten Democrats — 58% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Just 21% have a positive opinion of him while the same proportion — 21% — has an unfavorable one.  Last month, a similar 60% could not offer an opinion of Salgado.  13% thought well of him while 27% had an unfavorable view of the candidate.
  • Albanese also needs to make himself better known to New York City Democrats.  54% have either never heard of Albanese or are unsure how to rate him.  21% have a positive impression of him while 25% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  This is little changed from Marist’s May survey when 55% had either never heard of Albanese or were unsure how to rate him.  18%, then, thought well of Albanese while 26% had an unfavorable view of him.

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Erick Salgado Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Getting to Know the GOP Hopefuls

On the GOP side, more Republicans in New York City have a positive opinion of Joe Lhota.  Catsimatidis has also experienced a bump in his favorability rating, but the candidate still needs to become better acquainted with his party’s faithful.  McDonald also needs to make inroads with his fellow Republicans.

  • A slim majority of Republicans — 51% — have a favorable impression of Lhota.  11% have an unfavorable one, and 38% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s February survey, only 42% had a positive opinion of Lhota.  12% had a lesser view of him, and 46% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 38% think well of Catsimatidis.  17% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 45% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Slightly more Republicans have a positive view of Catsimatidis than did earlier this year.  When Marist last reported this question in February, a majority — 56% — had yet to form an opinion of Catsimatidis.  Three in ten — 30% — gave him a favorable rating while 14% had an unfavorable impression of him.
  • McDonald needs to make his presence known to New York City Republicans.  Nearly seven in ten Republicans — 68% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  17% think well of McDonald while 15% do not.  In February, almost two-thirds — 65% — had either never heard of the candidate or were unsure how to rate him.  18% had a positive impression of the candidate while 17% had an unfavorable one.

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Democrats Outdistance Republicans by More than Two-to-One

Regardless of who the specific candidates will be in this fall’s general election, the Democrat outpaces the Republican.  If the Democratic candidate were pitted against Joe Lhota and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • 52% of registered voters support Quinn.  15% are for Lhota, and 10% are for Carrion.  22% are undecided.  When Marist last reported this question in February, nearly six in ten voters — 59% — backed Quinn against Lhota — 17% — and Carrion — 8%.  17% were undecided.
  • 52% support de Blasio while 15% are for Lhota.  Six percent back Carrion, and 28% are undecided.
  • Nearly half of voters — 49% — support Thompson.  14% back Lhota, and 9% are for Carrion.  Close to three in ten — 28% — are undecided.
  • 49% are for Liu while Lhota receives 16%, and Carrion garners 8%.  27% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 46% — outpaces Lhota — 17% — by 29 percentage points.  Here, Carrion receives the support of 10%.  27% are undecided.

 If the Democratic candidate were up against John Catsimatidis and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • Weiner — 51% — outpaces Catsimatidis — 14% — and Carrion — 10%.  One in four — 25% — is undecided.
  • Thompson — 49% — leads Catsimatidis — 15%.  Carrion receives the support of 8%, and 28% are undecided.
  • A plurality of registered voters — 47% — back Quinn when matched against Catsimatidis — 16%.  Nine percent support Carrion, and 27% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives the backing of 44%.  Catsimatidis achieves 15%, and Carrion has the support of 10%.  31% are undecided.
  • Four in ten registered voters — 40% — back Liu when against Catsimatidis — 18% — and Carrion — 11%.  31% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — de Blasio/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Nearly Half of Voters Would Consider Voting for Weiner

Despite the political scars Weiner suffered following the sexting scandal, 49% of registered voters in New York City now say they would consider voting for the embattled politician.  45% would not think about casting their ballot for him, and 6% are unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who report they would consider voting for Weiner.  When NBC New York/Marist last reported this question in April, a majority of voters citywide — 52% — would not entertain the idea of supporting Weiner.  40% said they would consider it, and 8% were unsure.

Democrats and non-enrolled voters make the difference.  A majority of Democrats — 53% — say they would cast their ballot for Weiner.  This compares with 46% in April.  While non-enrolled voters divide, there has been a 16 percentage point increase in the proportion of these voters who say they might vote for Weiner.  47% now have this opinion compared with 31% two months ago.

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner? (NYC Registered Voters)

Should Bloomberg Keep Endorsement Under Wraps?

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has reported that he has decided who he wants to succeed him as mayor.  However, he has not announced his choice.  Should he?  New York City voters divide.  44% believe he should while 44% think he should not reveal who he supports.  11% are unsure.

By party:

  • A majority of Republican voters — 53% — say Bloomberg should share his decision.
  • Democrats and non-enrolled voters divide.  47% of Democrats say he should keep his choice to himself while 44% think he should announce his decision.
  • Among non-enrolled voters, 44% want to hear Bloomberg’s choice.  This compares with 42% who think he should keep it private.

Table: Should Bloomberg Reveal the Candidate He Wants to Succeed Him? (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing of Lhota Helps for Primary, But …

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani still carries sway among the city’s Republicans.  68% of Republican voters say Giuliani’s support of Joe Lhota makes them more likely to vote for Lhota for mayor.  But, Giuliani’s support does little to bolster Lhota’s chances in a general election.  While 29% of registered voters say Giuliani’s backing will make them more likely to vote for Lhota, 46% report it will make them less likely to do so.  16% say it makes little difference to their vote, and 9% are unsure.

Table: Impact of Giuliani’s Endorsement of Lhota (NYC Registered Voters)

Lackluster Interest in Mayor’s Race

But, does it all matter?  Among registered voters in New York City, 39% say they are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  Included here are 7% who are following the contest very closely and 32% who are watching it closely.  A plurality — 44% — is not following it very closely while 16% are not tracking it at all.

Interest in the mayor’s race is not yet picking up.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 41% said they were following the contest.  This included 12% who were keeping very close tabs on the election and 29% who were following it closely.  43% said they weren’t watching it very closely, and 16% weren’t tracking the contest at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race (NYC Registered Voters)

A Look at the Race for Public Advocate

While Letitia James and Catherine Guerriero are neck in neck for the Democratic nomination for public advocate, a majority of Democrats have yet to choose a candidate.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 17% Letitia James
  • 16% Catherine Guerriero
  •   8% Daniel Squadron
  •   4% Reshma Saujani
  • <1% Other
  • 54% Undecided

The race for public advocate is very fluid.  Among Democrats with a candidate preference, just 34% strongly support their choice.  43% somewhat support their pick, and 20% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

 

2/14: NYC Mayoralty: Quinn Leads Democratic Field…Lhota Ahead Among GOP

February 14, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will leave office at the end of the year.  So, who could be his successor?  Looking at the Democratic contest, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads her closest opponent by almost three-to-one.

Election Papers

©istockphoto.com/LilliDay

Click Here for Complete February 14, 2013 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Among registered Democratic voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 37% Christine Quinn
  • 13% Bill Thompson
  • 12% Bill de Blasio
  •   9% John Liu
  •   2% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Other
  • 26% Undecided

“An open seat is attracting a crowd,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Right now, Quinn is in the driver’s seat, but the race is still very fluid.”

Quinn has improved her standing among New York City Democrats.  In fact, her support has rebounded to more than what it was last spring.  When NY1-Marist reported this question in October, Quinn received the support of 23% of Democrats.  15% backed former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  Nine percent gave their support to current City Comptroller John Liu while Public Advocate Bill de Blasio garnered 8%.  Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer had 6%, and the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, received 2%.  At that time, 37% were unsure.  In NY1-Marist’s April survey, 32% of New York City Democrats supported Quinn.

How committed to their choice are Democrats with a candidate preference?  30% strongly support their pick.  34% are somewhat behind their candidate while 32% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

What are New York City Democrats’ impressions of these mayoral aspirants?

  • 65% have a favorable opinion of Quinn while 17% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
  • Looking at Thompson, nearly half — 49% — have a favorable impression of him while 20% do not.  31% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • 48% of New York City Democrats have a positive view of de Blasio while 20% have an unfavorable one.  32% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Liu, 43% have a favorable impression of him while 27% have an unfavorable one.  30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • Only 26% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Albanese while 20% have an unfavorable view of him.  A majority — 54% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

On the Republican side, former MTA Chairman Joe Lhota has the advantage over opponents for his party’s nomination but by no means a lock.  A majority of Republicans citywide — 55% — are undecided.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 20% Joe Lhota
  •   8% George McDonald
  •   5% John Catsimatidis
  •   4% Tom Allon
  •   3% Adolfo Carrion
  •   2% A.R. Bernard
  •   3% Other
  • 55% Undecided

Hopefuls in the Republican field lack name recognition.  Except for Lhota, a majority of New York City Republicans do not offer an impression of the potential Republican nominees for mayor.

    • 42% of GOP voters think well of Lhota while 12% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • 30% have a favorable view of Businessman John Catsimatidis while 14% have an unfavorable one.  A majority — 56% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • When it comes to former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion, 20% perceive him positively while 21% do not.  59% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • Advocate George McDonald is viewed well by 18% of Republicans citywide.  17%, however, have an unfavorable impression of him.  Nearly two-thirds — 65% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • Just 16% say they have a positive opinion of Manhattan Media publisher Allon.  This compares with 17% who have an unfavorable view of him.  67% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • Only 12% think well of Reverend A.R. Bernard.  18% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate, and seven in ten — 70% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

While former Congressman Anthony Weiner has not announced a candidacy for public office, there has been speculation about his political intentions.  Weiner, though, has a perception problem.  Only 30% of registered voters in New York City view him favorably.  46% have an unfavorable impression of him while 24% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Adolfo Carrion Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Tom Allon Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: A.R. Bernard Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

From the Primary to the General…Democrats Outdistance GOP Hopeful Lhota
 
When it comes to November’s general election, how do the candidates fare in head-to-head matchups?  Among New York City registered voters:

      • Quinn — 64% — outpaces Lhota — 18%.  18% are undecided.
      • If Thompson were to face-off against Lhota, Thompson — 61% — surpasses Lhota — 19%.  20% are undecided.
      • When de Blasio and Lhota square off, 60% back de Blasio compared with 18% for Lhota.  22% are undecided.
      • 56% are for Liu while 20% are behind Lhota.  23% are undecided.
      • In a race between Albanese and Lhota, 52% support Albanese compared with 21% for Lhota.  27% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Thompson/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Liu/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Albanese/Lhota

Third Party Candidate Makes Little Difference
 
If Adolfo Carrion decided to run on an independent line, how would the race shape up?

Among New York City registered voters:

    • Quinn has the support of 59% to 17% for Lhota.  Carrion receives 8%, and 17% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota/Carrion

Former Mayors Could Do More Harm than Good in General Election, But…
 
A candidate endorsement by Mayor Bloomberg may not bolster that candidate’s prospects.  If Bloomberg were to endorse a candidate, 36% of the electorate would be more likely to vote for that candidate while 44% would be less likely to vote for him or her.  14% report Bloomberg’s endorsement would make no difference to their vote, and 7% are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 28% said they would be more inclined to cast their ballot for a Bloomberg-endorsed candidate while 42% believed such a backing would make them less likely to support that candidate.  18% thought it would make no difference to their vote, and 11% were unsure.

What if former Mayor Rudy Giuliani were to endorse a candidate?  While Giuliani’s backing would do little to bolster such a candidate in the general election, it could pay dividends in the Republican primary.

Among New York City registered voters, 38% would be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Giuliani while 46% would be less likely to vote for that person.  Nine percent report it would make little difference to their vote, and 6% are unsure.

However, among Republicans citywide, 71% would be more inclined to support a candidate who receives Giuliani’s stamp of approval.  17% would be less likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 9% say it wouldn’t matter one way or the other.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

Table: Impact of Giuliani Endorsement

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/18: Quinn Still Leader of Democratic Field, But…

October 18, 2012 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Looking ahead to the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has the support of 23% of Democrats citywide.  Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson follows with 15%.  Nine percent of registered Democrats citywide are for current Comptroller John Liu while 8% support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio.  Six percent back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, receives 2%.  Nearly four in ten registered Democrats in New York City — 37% — are unsure.

Click Here for Complete October 18, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“There’s still a long way to go before Democrats go to the polls,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Nearly four in ten Democrats in the city are undecided.”

When compared with NY1-Marist’s April survey, more Democrats in the city are unsure about whom to support in the contest.  At that time, more than three in ten New York City Democrats — 32% — favored Quinn.  12% supported Thompson, and 10% were for de Blasio.  Liu received the backing of 9% while Stringer garnered 7%.  Only 1% of Democrats were behind Allon, and 29% were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Plurality Says, “No Go” for Kelly Mayoralty

46% of registered voters in New York City do not want Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to run for mayor.  35% support a Kelly candidacy.  19% are unsure.

In NY1-Marist’s July 2011 survey, voters divided.  42% believed Kelly should stay out of the race while the same proportion — 42% — wanted him to throw his hat into the ring.  16%, at that time, were unsure.

Other well-known names have been bandied about as possible mayoralty candidates.  How do they fare?  58% of registered voters citywide do not want Anthony Weiner to run for mayor while one in four — 25% — does.  17% are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since NY1-Marist last reported it in July of 2011.  At that time, 64% of voters citywide did not want Weiner to seek the office while 26% did.  One in ten, at that time, was unsure.

When it comes to Eliot Spitzer, 57% of registered voters want him to stay out of the contest while 30% would like to see him enter it.  13% are unsure.  Here, too, there is little difference from the last time this question was asked in July of 2011.  At that time, the same proportion — 57% — reported Spitzer should not run for mayor while 33% thought he should.  Nine percent, then, were unsure.

What about actor Alec Baldwin?  66% of registered voters say they don’t want the actor to turn politician.  18%, though, would like to see Baldwin enter the contest.  16% are unsure.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Actor Alec Baldwin 2013 Mayoralty?

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

45% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 10% who say he is doing an excellent job and 35% who report he is doing a good one.  32% report his performance is fair while 20% call it poor.  Only three percent are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks.  Included here were 12% who said he was doing an excellent job and 32% who believed he was doing a good one.  33% gave the mayor average grades while 22% thought his performance was subpar.  Only 1%, then, was unsure.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Bloomberg’s Legacy

How will Mayor Bloomberg be remembered after he leaves office?  43% of registered voters believe he will leave a positive legacy.  This includes 12% who think he will be remembered as one of the city’s best mayors and 31% who say he will be considered an above average mayor.  34% think Bloomberg will be thought of as an average mayor while 12% report he will be remembered as a below average one.  Eight percent have low expectations and say Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

Little has changed on this question since April.  At that time, 39% thought Bloomberg would leave a positive legacy behind.  39% said he would be considered an average mayor while 13% believed he would be looked upon as a subpar mayor.  Nine percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of New York City’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

Majority Remains Optimistic about the Direction of the City

51% of registered voters citywide say the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong one.  10% are unsure.

Here, too, the findings are similar to the NY1-Marist April survey when 52% thought New York City was on the right course.  More than four in ten voters — 42% — said it was on the wrong one, and 6% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

9/26: 2013 NYC Mayoral Field Competitive…Quinn, Markowitz Lead the Pack

September 26, 2011 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

According to this NY1-Marist Poll, if the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn would receive 20% of the vote while 16% would cast their ballot for Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz. Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson is within striking distance with the support of 12% of Democrats.  In this hypothetical contest, 10% are behind current Comptroller John Liu, 7% back Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer takes 6% of the vote.  Publisher Tom Allon garners just 2%, and one in four Democrats — 25% — are undecided.

©istockphoto.com/ericsphotography

voter and ballot box

Click Here for Complete September 26, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“With twenty-five percent of Democrats undecided and the field lacking a dominant top tier of candidates, this is a campaign story still to be told,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Those looking to succeed Mayor Bloomberg might welcome his support.  But, if the numbers hold, don’t expect anyone to make his endorsement the centerpiece of their campaign.”

In NY1-Marist’s July survey, 16% of Democratic voters supported Quinn, 15% backed Thompson, and 14% were for Markowitz.  Nine percent, at the time, were behind Liu, 7% said they would vote for de Blasio, and 6% thought they would cast their ballot for Stringer.  Only 1% backed Allon, and 32% were undecided.

If Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz decides not to run for the office, Quinn and Thompson are neck and neck.  Without Markowitz, 22% of Democrats are for Quinn followed closely by Thompson with 18%.  John Liu receives 12%, Bill de Blasio nets 10%, and Scott Stringer garners 7% of the vote.  Two percent back Tom Allon, and 28% are undecided.

What kind of influence could an endorsement by Mayor Michael Bloomberg have on a mayoral candidate?  Nearly half of registered voters in New York City consider it the kiss of death.  48% report an endorsement by Bloomberg would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, 30% think it would make them more likely to vote for one, and 15% say it makes no difference to their vote.  Only 8% are unsure.

Nearly half of Democratic voters citywide — 47% — report an endorsement by Bloomberg would make them less likely to vote for a candidate.  29% say it would make them more likely to support a candidate, and 17% think it would not make a difference.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (without Marty Markowitz)

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

7/28: Democratic Race for NYC Mayor Wide Open

July 28, 2011 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

In the aftermath of former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal about one-third of New York City’s Democrats, 32%, are undecided about whom to support in the Democratic primary for mayor in 2013.  The leading contenders are City Council Speaker Christine Quinn with 16%, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson with 15%, and Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz with 14%.  They are followed by New York City Comptroller John Liu who receives 9%, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio who has the support of 7%, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer who garners 6%, and Publisher Tom Allon who is backed by 1% of Democrats citywide.

hand casting ballot

©istockphoto.com/imagestock

Click Here for Complete July 28, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“With Weiner out of the picture, there are twice as many undecided voters than voters who support any one of the current contenders,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “That makes for a very fluid contest.”

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, now former Congressman Anthony Weiner received the backing of 18% of Democrats in New York City.  Thompson took 15% while Liu and Quinn each received 13% of the Democratic vote citywide.  At that time, 9% of Democrats reported they were pulling for de Blasio while 4% backed Stringer.  27%, then, were undecided.  Markowitz was not included in the previous survey.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Voters Want Weiner, Spitzer Out of 2013 Mayoralty

Citywide few voters, including those within their own party, want the sex scandal plagued pols, former Congressman Anthony Weiner or former Governor Eliot Spitzer, to seek the New York City mayoralty in 2013.  Only 26% would like to see Weiner in the race and just 33% would want Spitzer to enter the contest.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty? (Over Time)

Trend Graph: Should Eliot Spitzer run for NYC mayor?

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

New York City Voters Divide Over Top Cop Candidacy

How do New York City voters feel about Police Commissioner Ray Kelly becoming “Candidate Kelly?”  The electorate divides.  Citywide, 42%, would like to see Kelly run for mayor and 42% say he should stay out of the race.  16% are unsure.

Among Democrats, 41% would like Kelly to toss his proverbial hat into the ring.  This compares with 54% of Republicans and 35% of non-enrolled voters who say the same.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

4/1: The 2013 Democratic Field for NYC Mayor: No Clear Candidate

April 1, 2011 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

The pool of potential 2013 Democratic mayoral candidates is wide, but does anyone stand out in the minds of voters?  Not yet.  According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 18% of Democratic voters citywide say, if the primary were held today, they would support Congressman Anthony Weiner.  Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson takes 15%.  Comptroller John Liu receives 13% of the Democratic vote as does City Council Speaker Christine Quinn.  Nine percent of Democrats say they would support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio while 4% would back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.  A notable 27% are undecided.

voter casting ballot
©istockphoto.com/imagestock

Click Here for Complete April 1, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

There has been little movement on this question since Marist last reported it in October.  At that time, 21% supported Weiner, 16% backed Thompson, and 10% threw their support behind Liu.   Quinn and de Blasio received the support of 9% and 8%, respectively, while 4% supported Stringer at the time.  32% were undecided.

“With no clear front-runner and a large number of undecided voters, this contest is likely to attract a crowd of candidates,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”This is not unusual for an ‘open’ seat.”

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Just Don’t Do It, Spitz!

There’s one possible candidate who many voters definitely don’t want to see throw his hat into the 2013 mayoralty ring.  62% of registered voters in New York City say they would prefer former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer not run for mayor.  29%, however, say he should.  10% are unsure.

When Marist last asked this question in October, similar proportions of voters held these views.  62% of voters did not want Spitzer to make a bid for mayor while 24% did.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Spitzer can’t even gain traction in his own party.  More than six in ten Democratic voters — 62% — do not want him to seek the mayoralty while 29% do.  Nine percent are unsure.  In Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions of Democrats citywide held these views.

Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid
Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid Over Time

Trend graph: Should Eliot Spitzer run for NYC mayor?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

4/13: Campaign 2013: No Clear Democratic Front-runner in NYC Mayoralty

April 13, 2010 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Three years is a lifetime in politics, but if the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor were held today, 18% of registered Democrats would support Congressman Anthony Weiner.  Former Comptroller Bill Thompson follows closely behind with 15% of the vote.  And, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn receives the support of 12%.  10% of the city’s Democrats report they would back Public Advocate Bill de Blasio. Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. and Comptroller John Liu each garners 9% of the vote. More than a quarter of New York City Democrats — 27% — are undecided.

Voter puts ballot in ballot box.

©istockphoto.com/ericsphotography

“There are plenty of potential candidates for 2013, but no clear front-runner,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “With a long way to go, it’s not surprising that ‘undecided’ best reflects the outlook of Democratic voters at this time.”

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Click Here for Complete April 13, 2010 NYC Poll Release and Tables

The Kelly Question

What if New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly decided to run as the Republican candidate for mayor?  How would he fare against the Democrats’ top contenders?

When pitted against Congressman Anthony Weiner, Weiner receives a majority of registered voters in New York City — 52% — to Kelly’s 33%.  15% are unsure.

New York’s top cop does better when matched up against City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and former Comptroller Bill Thompson.  In the hypothetical contest against Quinn, she receives 45% of the vote to Kelly’s 37%.  18% are undecided.

And, Kelly receives a similar proportion of the vote when he and Thompson face off.  Here, 45% of voters citywide say they would support Thompson while 36% would back Kelly.  19% are unsure.

Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Weiner
Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Quinn
Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Thompson

Marist Poll Methodology