10/6: Mayor de Blasio Approval Rating up to 40%… Well-positioned for Re-election Amid Racially Polarized City

October 6, 2016 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With a mayoralty election year approaching, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has a job approval rating of 40%, up from his all-time low of 35% in April.  A year ago, the mayor’s approval rating stood at 38%.  However, a deep racial divide underscores both de Blasio’s approval rating and questions pertaining to the general condition of New York City.

“Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating has inched up, and he has improved his standing with New Yorkers on both his handling of issues and their perceptions of his qualities as mayor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “New Yorkers give the mayor his top grade for his handling of the recent bombing incident in Chelsea.”

Four in ten registered voters in New York City, 40%, approve of how Mayor Bill de Blasio is doing his job.  This includes 9% who give the mayor an excellent rating and 31% who give him a good one.  56% of voters citywide report de Blasio is doing either a fair, 34%, or poor job, 22%, in office.  Three percent are unsure.

Prominent differences surface when looking at race.  African American voters, 53%, and Latino voters, 46%, are more likely than white voters, 30%, to give de Blasio high marks.  While de Blasio’s approval rating has changed little among white voters, his score has inched up from 49% in April among African American voters.  Mayor de Blasio has made significant inroads with Latino members of the electorate.  In the spring, 36% of Latinos reported Mayor de Blasio was performing well in his post.

By borough, de Blasio’s job performance is best received in the Bronx, 49%, up from 34% previously.  In Brooklyn, 45% of voters think well of how Mayor de Blasio is doing his job compared with 38% who shared this view this past spring.  43% of Manhattan voters think highly of de Blasio’s job performance, up 11 points since April.  Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating in Queens and Staten Island is little changed.  31% currently score the mayor’s job performance highly compared with 32% who did so previously.

On the specifics of the mayor’s job performance, he receives his highest score among city residents on how he handled the bombing incident in Chelsea with a 60% positive rating.  The mayor also receives good marks on how he is handling crime, 49%, and how he is dealing with the city’s public schools, 49%.  60% of households with a child in the public schools approve of how de Blasio is approaching education.  On the issue of police-community relations, de Blasio’s score is upside down.  44% of adults citywide approve while 48% disapprove.  The mayor also has a net negative rating on how he is handling the problem of income inequality.  39% of city residents approve while 44% disapprove.

On questions for which trend data exists, Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating on the issues has increased.  This includes the question about police-community relations which, as noted above, the mayor currently still receives a net negative score.


African American adults and Latino residents are more likely than white residents to approve of how Mayor de Blasio is approaching these issues with one exception.  On the question of how Mayor de Blasio tackled the Chelsea bombing incident, similar proportions of whites, 59%, and Latinos, 57%, think well of how the mayor handled the situation.  71% of African Americans agree.  Of note, de Blasio’s scores on the questions for which trend data exist have increased even among white adults citywide.

Mayor de Blasio is viewed by registered voters to be a mayor who cares about the average person, 61%, who is a good leader for New York City, 54%, and who deserves to be re-elected, 50%.  On each of these questions, more voters citywide maintain these opinions than previously.  Again, African American voters and Latino members of the electorate are more likely to perceive de Blasio positively than white voters.  While there has been little or no change among white voters on these questions, there has been an increase in African American and Latino voters who have a positive impression of de Blasio in each of these areas.

Since Mayor de Blasio has taken office, few New York City residents believe that he has improved the homeless situation in New York City.  Only 10% of residents think the number of homeless people, panhandlers, and the mentally ill on the city’s streets and subways have decreased.  38% believe the number has increased, and 43% say it has remained about the same.  Nine percent are unsure.  When this question was reported last November, 8% thought the number of homeless people in New York City had gone down, 42% thought the homeless population had grown, and 42% said it had remained the same.  Eight percent at that time were unsure.  Currently, white residents, 53%, are more likely than African American, 25%, and Latino, 37%, adults to say the homeless situation has become worse.  Still, a majority of African Americans, 54%, and a plurality of Latinos, 43%, say it has remained about the same.  Just 14% of African American residents and 12% of Latinos report the number has decreased.

Mayor de Blasio does better on the issue of affordable housing.  More than one in four residents, 27%, say the amount of affordable housing in the city has increased.  21% think it has decreased, and 41% report it is unchanged.  11% are unsure.  Here, too, opinions splinter along racial lines.  Latino adults, 38%, and African American residents, 29%, are more likely than whites, 19%, to believe there is greater access to affordable housing.

Overall, 43% of voters in New York City, up from 37% previously, think Mayor de Blasio is changing New York City for the better.  25% say he is having a negative effect on the city, and 28% report the mayor is not having any effect on the five boroughs.  There has been little change among white voters, 26%, who see improvement compared with 29% last fall. However, a substantial proportion of Latino voters, 53%, up from 37%, say de Blasio is improving the city.  The proportion of African American voters is also up, 59% from 52%.

Mayor de Blasio and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo often disagree about the issues facing the city.  A majority of city residents, 51%, say those disagreements matter only a little, 28%, or not at all, 23%.  46% say they are bothered a great deal, 28%, or a good amount, 18%, by such squabbles.

Who do New York City residents blame for the disagreements between de Blasio and Cuomo?  42% put more of the onus on Cuomo while 30% point a finger at de Blasio.  Nearly three in ten, 29%, are unsure.  Again, racial differences exist.  A majority of African American residents, 52%, and a plurality of Latino adults, 44%, mostly blame Cuomo.  A plurality of white adults, 41%, say the fault lies mostly at de Blasio’s feet.

Pluralities of New York City residents think both Mayor de Blasio and Governor Cuomo are taking steps to clean up corruption in the city and state, respectively.  47% of city residents report de Blasio is attempting to rid the city of corruption while 32% assert that he and his administration are adding to this problem in the Big Apple.  21% are unsure.  When it comes to Cuomo, nearly identical proportions have these views.  47% think Cuomo is taking steps to clean up corruption in state government while 33% believe he and his administration are adding to the problem at the state level.  21% are unsure.

On both questions, African Americans and Latinos are more likely than whites to think de Blasio and Cuomo are trying to eliminate corruption.  A plurality of white voters, 46%, think de Blasio is adding to corruption in New York City.  There is little consensus among white voters about Cuomo:  40% think he is trying to rid Albany of corruption, and 38% report he is adding to the problem.  21% of whites are unsure.

What are de Blasio’s re-election chances?  If he faces a primary challenge, 42% of New York City Democrats support de Blasio. Former New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn receives the support of 12%.  New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer has 9% as does Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr.  Congressman Hakeem Jeffries receives the support of 7% of New York City Democrats.  More than one in five, 22%, are undecided.

Looking at race, a majority of African Americans who are Democrats, 56%, and half of Latinos who are Democrats, 50%, support Mayor de Blasio.  Among white Democrats, 26% are for de Blasio, 20% support Quinn, and 19% back Stringer.

“What is noteworthy, at this point, is that de Blasio has a substantial lead over a crowded field of potential Democratic opponents, and he has an impressive 57% re-elect score among Democrats,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Citywide, 50% of registered voters now say the mayor deserves to be re-elected, up eight points from the previous poll.”

In a general election contest against Republican real estate executive Paul Massey, Mayor de Blasio, 64%, leads Massey, 22%, by nearly three to one among registered voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Three percent support someone else, and 11% are undecided.

De Blasio has the advantage over Massey in all five boroughs.  Mayor de Blasio does best in the Bronx, 73%.  His weakest region is in Queens and Staten Island where he has the backing of 56%.  African American, 87%, and Latino voters, 72%, overwhelmingly favor de Blasio.  Among whites, de Blasio, 45%, is ahead of Massey, 38%, by seven points.

Do city voters want a Trump family member to enter New York City’s political arena?  Eight in ten voters, 80%, say they do not want Donald Trump, Jr. to run for mayor.  A similar 81% say they do not want Donald Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump to seek the mayoralty.

Turning to the New York City Police Department, 68% of New York City residents have either a great deal of confidence, 28%, or a fair amount of confidence, 40%, in police officers in their community to protect them from violent crime.  30% either have just some confidence, 14%, or very little confidence, 16%, to keep them safe.  Two percent are unsure.  In November 2015, 66% of residents had, at least, a fair amount of faith in the NYPD to protect them.  Currently, 80% of white adults, compared with 53% of African American residents and 65% of Latino adults, feel confident that the police in their community will protect them, at least, a fair amount.

70% of adults have either a great deal, 32%, or a fair amount, 38%, of confidence in their local police to protect them from an act of terrorism.  28% have just some, 14%, or very little, 14%, faith in the NYPD to do so.  Two percent are unsure.

Optimism about the direction of New York City has increased.  48% of registered voters, compared with 43% in April, say the city is moving in the right direction.  43%, down from 51% previously, say it is moving in the wrong one.  The proportion of voters who are more upbeat about the city’s trajectory has been growing.  Last year, 38% of the city’s electorate said the city was on the right track while 55% reported it was on the wrong one.

Complete October 6, 2016 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample 

4/15: NY: Clinton with Strong Lead

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 57%, runs ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 40%, by 17 points among New York likely Democratic primary voters in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination.  In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York released earlier this week, Clinton was ahead of Sanders by 14 points.

“As the primary approaches, the back and forth between Clinton and Sanders hasn’t dramatically changed the New York contest for the Democrats in the last few days,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Clinton has maintained her advantage over Sanders by running up a large margin among Democratic primary voters 45 years of age or older.  Sanders retains his lead among first-time voters, those under the age of 45, and likely Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as very liberal.  Looking at region, Clinton is ahead of Sanders by 26 points in New York City and 24 points in the city’s suburbs.  Clinton and Sanders are competitive upstate, 49% to 50%, respectively.

72% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference, compared with 69% of those earlier this week, report they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Clinton’s supporters, 71%, and Sanders’ backers, 72%, express a firm commitment to their choice of candidate.

Turning to the job performances of other prominent office holders in New York State, Governor Andrew Cuomo’s rating remains upside down.  41% of registered voters think Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 7% who say he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one.  55% of voters report Cuomo is doing either a fair, 34%, or poor, 21%, job.  Cuomo’s approval rating has inched up slightly from the 37% score he received in the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last year.

Assessing Cuomo’s approval rating by party, a majority of Democrats, 54%, approve of how the governor is doing in office, up from 43% last spring.  The proportions of Republicans, 25%, and independents, 38%, who give Cuomo high marks are identical to what they were at that time.

Regionally, Cuomo is perceived best in New York City, 47%, and in the city’s suburbs, 45%.  Last time, Cuomo’s approval rating was 44% in the city and 41% in the suburbs.  34% of upstate voters, compared with 31% last May, share this opinion.

43% of voters statewide think the Empire State is moving in the right direction while 48% say it is moving in the wrong one.  This is little changed from last spring when 43% said the state was on track, and 51% thought it was off course.

Regionally, differences exist.  Half of New York City voters, 50%, have a positive opinion of the direction of the state.  43% of those in the suburbs and 38% of voters upstate agree.

The approval rating of New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is at its lowest point since taking office.  35% of voters citywide approve of his job performance.  Included here are 8% of registered voters citywide who think the mayor is doing an excellent job and 27% who say he is doing a good one.  62% think he has done a fair or poor job.  In the November Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 38% approved of de Blasio’s job performance, and 58% did not.  Currently, even a majority of Democrats rate him as fair or poor, 54%.

Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating is down among white voters.  27% of white voters approve of de Blasio’s job performance, down from 32% in the fall.  There is little change among Latinos and African Americans.  36% of Latinos, comparable to the 37% he received last time, approve of how de Blasio is doing his job.  Among African Americans, 49% give de Blasio high scores while 50% did so previously.

When it comes to the direction of New York City, voters’ opinions are upside down.  A majority of New York City voters, 51%, continue to think things in the Big Apple are moving in the wrong direction.  43% believe New York City is moving in the right one.  This is somewhat improved from last fall when 55% thought the city was on the wrong path, and 38% reported it was on the right course.

In contrast, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating among New York registered voters, 52%, is at its highest in three years.  Mr. Obama received an identical score of 52% this time three years ago.  When this question was last reported in May of 2015, 46% of registered voters gave Mr. Obama high scores, and 54% did not.

Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of New York

 Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (New York State Registered Voters)

 Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (New York City Registered Voters)

Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

 Marist Poll Methodology for New York

 Nature of the Sample for New York 

12/23: Out with the Old and In with the New… NYC Voters Hopeful about de Blasio Administration, Change for the Better on the Way

December 23, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

When New York City Mayor-elect Bill de Blasio is sworn into office on January 1st, he will be greeted with great expectations from voters.  About two-thirds of registered voters in the city — 66% — are hopeful about de Blasio becoming the next mayor of New York City.  14% are content while 11% are disappointed.  Two percent describe themselves as angry, and 7% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete December 23, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Coming off a huge election victory, expectations are sky high for what Bill de Blasio will do for the city as mayor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, not all New Yorkers think that accomplishing his goals will be a slam dunk.”

By party, 72% of Democrats are hopeful about the incoming de Blasio administration.  However, Republicans citywide divide.  43% are hopeful while 40% are disappointed.  Nearly two-thirds of non-enrolled voters — 64% — are optimistic about de Blasio becoming mayor.

Regardless of borough, at least six in ten voters have a positive feeling about de Blasio assuming the role of mayor.  Voters in Brooklyn — 71% — are the most hopeful.  67% of those in Manhattan, 64% of those in the Bronx, and 62% of voters in Queens and Staten Island share this emotion.

How will de Blasio impact New York City?  Nearly six in ten — 58% — think he will change the Big Apple for the better.  14% believe he will make the city worse while 13% report he will not change New York City at all.  15% are unsure.

There is a partisan divide.  While 65% of Democrats say de Blasio will improve New York City, 49% of Republicans think he will make it worse.  55% of non-enrolled voters say de Blasio will have a positive impact on New York City.

There are also differences by race and borough.  More than seven in ten African American voters — 72% — think de Blasio will change the city for the better.  65% of Latino voters citywide agree.  However, 49% of white voters in New York City believe he will improve the Big Apple.

Looking at borough, 65% of voters in Brooklyn believe de Blasio will change New York City for the better.  This compares with 63% in the Bronx and 56% in Manhattan who say the same.  In Queens and Staten Island, 51% think de Blasio will positively affect New York City.

Table: Emotion which Best Describes Feeling about Bill de Blasio becoming NYC Mayor (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: de Blasio’s Impact on NYC (NYC Registered Voters)

Majority with Positive Image of de Blasio

56% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable impression of Mayor-elect de Blasio.  20% have an unfavorable view of him, and 23% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Despite de Blasio’s strong favorable rating, it’s a long way from the campaign trail to City Hall.  There has been a decline in the proportion of voters who have a favorable opinion of de Blasio and an increase in the proportion of those who have yet to form an opinion of the soon-to-be-mayor.  When the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in November, just before Election Day, more than six in ten voters — 64% — thought favorably of de Blasio.  26% had a lesser impression of him, and only 10% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate de Blasio.

When it comes to de Blasio’s political ideology, 61% of voters believe it is about right.  21% think he is too liberal while only 4% say he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.  In November, 56% of voters described de Blasio’s ideology as about right.  29% thought he was too liberal, and 4% said he was too conservative.  11%, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Getting to Know You… Next First Lady of NYC Little-Known to Many Voters 

Bill de Blasio’s wife, Chirlane McCray, needs to introduce herself to the New York City electorate.  While 46% of voters have a favorable impression of McCray, 45% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Eight percent have a negative opinion of McCray.

Table: Chirlane McCray Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track, Says Majority

51% of New York City voters think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  36% believe it is traveling in the wrong one, and 13% are unsure.  When the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in November, 49% reported the city was on the right course while 42% said it was not.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Exit Center Stage… Bloomberg Leaves Office with 49% Approval Rating 

As Mayor Michael Bloomberg prepares to leave office after 12 years in City Hall, 49% approve of his job performance.  This includes 15% who say he is doing an excellent one, and 34% who report he is doing a good one.  30% rate Bloomberg’s performance as fair while 17% think he is performing poorly.  Four percent are unsure.

In the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s November survey, 47% approved of Bloomberg’s job performance.  29% believed his performance was average while 20% said he fell short.  Three percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg’s Lasting Legacy 

How will Mayor Michael Bloomberg be remembered?  50% will recall his time in office positively.  Included here are 15% who describe Bloomberg as one of the city’s best mayors and 35% who call him an above average mayor.  31% will remember him as an average mayor while 10% will recall him as a below average one.  Eight percent think Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

“Overall, after three terms, New Yorkers think Mayor Bloomberg has done a decent job,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For most New Yorkers, he has been a commendable mayor.”

When this question was last reported in February, 44% thought Bloomberg’s tenure would be remembered fondly.  37% said his legacy would be an average one while 12% believed Bloomberg would be considered a below average mayor.  Eight percent of voters, at that time, said Bloomberg would be recalled as one of the city’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Nature of the Sample

How the Survey was Conducted

11/4: De Blasio with BIG Lead over Lhota Going into Election Day

November 4, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

The clock is counting down to Election Day, and in this final NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Democrat Bill de Blasio has a very wide lead over Republican Joe Lhota among New York City likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  De Blasio has the support of 65% of likely voters while Lhota receives 24%.  Independence candidate Adolfo Carrion has 4% while 1% of likely voters citywide wants another candidate to be elected.  Six percent are undecided.

Click Here for Complete November 4, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“Bill de Blasio continues to be the overwhelming favorite with New York City voters while Joe Lhota can’t get any traction,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Even a Peyton Manning fourth quarter comeback wouldn’t be enough to close this large gap.”

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist reported this question last month, 67% of likely voters citywide supported de Blasio.  23% backed Lhota while Carrion had the support of 2%.  One percent was for another candidate, and 7% were undecided.

By party:

  • Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 79% are for de Blasio compared with 14% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  In October, 82% backed de Blasio while 13% were for Lhota.  One percent was behind Carrion.
  • When it comes to likely Republican voters, 71% are for Lhota while 21% are for de Blasio.  Three percent support Carrion.  In that previous survey, 69% of likely Republican voters backed Lhota while 16% were for de Blasio, and 1% supported Carrion.
  • Among non-enrolled voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 50% support de Blasio.  29% are for Lhota while 11% back Carrion.  Last month, 58% of likely non-enrolled voters were for de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota.  Seven percent, at that time, backed Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio receives, at least, majority support.   Among African American voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 90% support de Blasio.  Lhota and Carrion each receives 2%.  72% of Latino voters are for de Blasio while 10% are for Lhota, and 9% back Carrion.  Among likely voters who are white, 53% support de Blasio, 39% back Lhota, and 2% are for Carrion.

Before last Wednesday’s debate, 65% of likely voters supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Carrion received the support of 4% while 1% wanted another candidate to be mayor.  Six percent were undecided.  After the debate, 65% supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Three percent backed Carrion while 1% were for another candidate.  Seven percent were undecided.

“The debate season has come and gone,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, the debates this fall have done more to reinforce voters’ impressions of the candidates than to change the character of the race.”

How strongly do likely voters citywide support their choice of candidate?  61% say they strongly support their selection for mayor while 30% are somewhat committed to their choice.  Eight percent might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick, and 9% said they might vote differently.  Two percent were unsure.

65% of likely voters who support de Blasio say they will not waver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 54% of likely voters who back Lhota and say they are strongly committed to him.  Last month, 56% of de Blasio’s backers reported they strongly supported him while 49% of Lhota’s backers had a similar level of intensity.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, de Blasio — 63% — is ahead of Lhota — 21% — by 42 percentage points.  Carrion receives the support of 5% while 1% wants someone else to be elected.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Done Deal for de Blasio?

Most registered voters in New York City think, regardless of who they plan to support, de Blasio will defeat Lhota tomorrow.  83% of voters believe de Blasio will win while only 8% think Lhota will be victorious.  Nine percent are undecided.  Even an overwhelming proportion of Lhota’s backers — 81% — think de Blasio will be the city’s next mayor.

Table: Who Do You Think Will Win the Election for New York City Mayor? (NYC Registered Voters)

About Two-Thirds Perceive de Blasio Favorably… Upside Down Rating for Lhota 

64% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable opinion of de Blasio.  26% have an unfavorable one, and 10% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In October, similar proportions shared these views.  65% of registered voters thought well of de Blasio.  23% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 12%, at that time, had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Lhota, 47% have an unfavorable view of him.  32% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 43% of registered voters had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota while 32% had a favorable one.  25% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Trumps Lhota on the Issues 

About two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — think de Blasio is the candidate who is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  18%, however, say Lhota is the candidate who will improve affordability in the city.  15% are unsure.  Last month, 67% of registered voters thought de Blasio was more capable to make the city affordable.  19% had this impression of Lhota, and 14%, at that time, were unsure.

Looking at crime in the city, 48% of registered voters believe de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 32% think Lhota is better able to keep the city safe.  About one in five — 19% — is unsure.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 52% said de Blasio would make the city safer.  31% believed Lhota was better able to keep crime down, and 17% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Ideologically Speaking 

What are voters’ impressions of de Blasio’s political ideology?  A majority of registered voters — 56% — thinks his ideology is about right.  29% say he is too liberal while 4% say he is too conservative.  11% are unsure.  In October, 59% thought de Blasio’s ideology was in line.  24% reported he was too liberal while 3% said he was too conservative.  14% were unsure.

When it comes to Lhota’s political ideology, 34% say his ideology is about right.  35% believe Lhota is too conservative while 8% say Lhota is too liberal.  23% are unsure.  Last month, 35% of registered voters reported Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while only 8% believed he was too liberal.  26%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Time for Change, Say More than Six in Ten 

64% of registered voters want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 31% want him to continue Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s policies.  Six percent are unsure.  There has been little change since NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s October survey.  At that time, 66% wanted a departure from Bloomberg’s policies.  29% reported they thought the city’s current policies should be continued, and 6% were unsure.

So, how do voters think Bloomberg is doing in office?  47% say he is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 13% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one.  29% rate Bloomberg’s approval rating as fair while 20% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 45% gave Bloomberg high marks.  34% said he was doing a fair job while 18% thought Bloomberg’s job performance was subpar.  Two percent were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

The City’s Course

49% of registered voters think New York City is moving in the right direction while 42% believe it is moving in the wrong one.  Nine percent are unsure.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 46% of voters thought the city was traveling on the right road while 46% said it needed a new path.  Eight percent were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/11: De Blasio Leads Lhota by 44 Percentage Points in NYC Mayor’s Race

October 11, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With just a little more than three weeks until Election Day, Democrat Bill de Blasio outpaces his Republican opponent, Joe Lhota, 67% to 23%, among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has the support of 2%.  One percent supports another candidate while 7% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“This is a very lopsided contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Joe Lhota hasn’t gotten any traction to offset the Democratic registration advantage in the city.”

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, de Blasio — 65% — was ahead of Lhota — 22% — by 43 percentage points among likely voters.  Carrion received the support of 3%.  One percent backed another candidate, and 9%, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

  • Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 82% support de Blasio while 13% are for Lhota.  One percent supports Carrion.  Last month, 77% of Democrats backed de Blasio.  13% were behind Lhota, and 1% supported Carrion.
  • Looking at likely Republican voters, 69% back Lhota.  16% are for de Blasio, and 1% supports Carrion.  In September’s survey, 63% of Republicans were for Lhota compared with 25% for de Blasio.  Five percent were behind Carrion.
  • Among non-enrolled voters, de Blasio has the backing of 58%.  Lhota garners 21%, and Carrion has 7%.  In that previous survey, half of non-enrolled voters likely to cast a ballot — 50% — supported de Blasio compared with 24% for Lhota and 9% for Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio has a wide lead over Lhota.  Among white voters who are likely to participate on Election Day, 57% support de Blasio while 33% are for Lhota.  In September, 50% of whites backed de Blasio while Lhota had the support of 37%.  Among African American voters, de Blasio has 89% to 4% for Lhota.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 86% of African American voters likely to cast a ballot supported de Blasio compared with 3% for Lhota.  De Blasio has a 62 percentage point advantage over Lhota among Latinos who are likely to vote.  Here, de Blasio receives 76% compared with 14% for Lhota.  Last month, 74% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day were for de Blasio while 11% backed Lhota.

How strongly do likely voters with a candidate preference support their choice for mayor?  54% strongly support their pick while 36% are somewhat behind their candidate.  Nine percent might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  33% were somewhat behind their pick while 13% said they might change their minds before Election Day.  One percent, at that time, was unsure.

Among likely voters who are for de Blasio, 56% strongly support him.  This compares with 49% of Lhota’s backers who are firmly committed to him.  This is little changed from September when 58% of de Blasio’s backers said they strongly supported him while 47% of Lhota’s supporters expressed the same level of support for him.

Looking at registered voters, de Blasio — 66% — outdistances Lhota — 20% — by 46 percentage points.  Carrion has the support of 3% while 2% back another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.  Last month, 63% of registered voters backed de Blasio while 20% supported Lhota.  Four percent were for Carrion, and 2% backed another candidate.  12% were undecided.

What does the contest for mayor look like when all fifteen candidates on the ballot are taken into account?  Little changes.  Among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 64% support de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  Jack Hidary and Michael Greys each receives 1%.  Erick Salgado, Anthony Gronowicz, James McMillian, Michael Sanchez, Randy Credico, Dan Fein, Joseph Melaragno, Sam Sloan, Michael Dilger, and Carl Person each garners less than one percent of the vote.  One percent mentions another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor Including All Fifteen Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

65% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio while 23% have an unfavorable one.  12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In September, 65% thought highly of de Blasio while 19% had an unfavorable view of him.  16%, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

It’s a different story when it comes to Lhota.  43% have an unfavorable impression of the candidate.  32% have a positive view of him, and a notable 25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  There has been little change on this question since September when 41% had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota, and 29% said they had a favorable one.  Three in ten — 30% — had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Tops Lhota on Issues and Qualities

How do de Blasio and Lhota stack up when it comes to campaign issues and candidate qualities?  Among registered voters in New York City:

  • Two out of three — 67% — think de Blasio is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure.  In September, 63% had this impression of de Blasio while 20% said Lhota could make New York City more affordable.  17% were unsure.
  • When it comes to improving the city’s public schools, about two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — say de Blasio is the better candidate for the job.  This compares with 19% who think Lhota is better able to improve education in the city.  16% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question.  Last month, 65% reported de Blasio was the candidate with the skills to improve education while 18% had this view of Lhota.  18%, at that time, were unsure.
  • 63% of registered voters think de Blasio can better unite the city.  This compares with 21% who think Lhota can bring New Yorkers together.  16% are unsure.  In that previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 67% of voters considered de Blasio to be the candidate who could better unite the city.  19% thought Lhota was the candidate to do so, and 14% were unsure.
  • There has also been little change on whether de Blasio or Lhota has the experience to manage the city.  53% believe de Blasio is the more seasoned candidate while 29% think Lhota has the experience to take the city’s helm.  18% are unsure.  Last month, a majority — 54% — reported de Blasio had the experience to be mayor compared with 31% who had this impression of Lhota.  15%, then, were unsure.
  • A majority of voters — 52% — say de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 31% say Lhota is more likely to do so.  17% are unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who say de Blasio will improve safety in the city.  Last month, 44% said de Blasio was more likely to reduce crime.  This compares with 35% who had this opinion of Lhota.  21%, at the time, were unsure.
  • When it comes to the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances, 49% think de Blasio is more capable.  This compares with 33% who say Lhota has the advantage on this issue.  19% are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 45% thought de Blasio was the better candidate to deal with the city’s finances while 35% had this opinion of Lhota.  20% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

The Ideologies of the Candidates 

Among registered voters in New York City, 59% report de Blasio’s political ideology is in step.  This compares with 24% who think he is too liberal and 3% who believe he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.

In September, 59% of registered voters said de Blasio’s ideology was about right.  22% reported he was too liberal while 5% thought he was too conservative.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Among registered voters, 35% say Lhota’s political ideology is in line.  31% report he is too conservative, and 8% believe he is too liberal.  26% are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 32% of voters thought Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while 7% reported he was too liberal.  29%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio’s Past Experiences in Cuba and Nicaragua Matter Little

Information surfaced that de Blasio went to Cuba on his honeymoon and supported the Sandinistas in Nicaragua.  Has this knowledge impacted voters’ impressions of de Blasio?  More than seven in ten registered voters — 72% — say it makes no difference to them.  16% report it makes them less likely to vote for de Blasio while 8% think it makes them more likely to vote for him.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of de Blasio’s Time in Cuba and Nicaragua on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Divide about Lhota and National GOP

On most issues, 40% of registered voters think Lhota is not independent from the national Republican Party.  36% believe he is independent from the GOP, and 24% are unsure where he stands on most issues.

Among those who believe Lhota’s stance on the issues is tied to the national Republican Party, 39% are less likely to support him, and 54% say it doesn’t matter.  Looking at those who say Lhota is independent from the national GOP platform, 42% would be more likely to vote for him, and 51% say it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Impact of Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing Does Little to Help Lhota’s Chances

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani stumped for Lhota during the primary, but his nod does not bolster Lhota’s chances in the general election.  While 31% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to support Lhota, 47% report it makes them less likely to do so.  18% think it makes no difference to their vote, and 3% are unsure.

Last month, 29% reported Giuliani’s support made them more likely to vote for Lhota.  A majority — 51% — said it made them less likely to vote for him, and 15% thought Giuliani’s endorsement made no difference to their vote.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

A partisan divide exists.  Most Republicans — 72% — say a Giuliani endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota while 8% report it makes them less inclined to support him.  Among Democrats, 57% think Giuliani’s backing makes them less likely to cast their ballot for Lhota.  22% disagree and believe it will make them more likely to do so.  There is little consensus among non-enrolled voters citywide.  35% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota, and 42% report it makes them less likely to vote for him.  20% believe it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Departure from Bloomberg Era Policies Desired… Bloomberg Rating Steady 

About two-thirds of registered voters in New York City — 66% — want to move the city in a different direction from the Bloomberg years.  29%, however, want the next mayor to continue the policies of Mayor Bloomberg.  Six percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 68% wanted the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 25% wanted him to stay the course.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

When it comes to the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office, 45% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who say the mayor is doing an excellent job and 33% who report he is doing a good one.  34% rate his performance as fair while 18% think he is performing poorly.  Two percent are unsure.

Last month, a similar 42% gave Bloomberg kudos.  33% gave him average grades while 22% thought he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)  

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track?

When it comes to the direction of New York City, 46% of registered voters believe it is moving in the right direction, and 46% think it is traveling in the wrong one.  Eight percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, voters also divided.  46% reported the city was on the right road, and 43% said it was on the wrong track.  11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

9/18: Early Line: de Blasio Outpaces Lhota in NYC Mayor’s Race

September 18, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

The race for New York City mayor now turns toward the general election.  Among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Democrat Bill de Blasio leads Republican Joe Lhota, 65% to 22%.  Independence candidate Adolfo Carrion — 3% — trails in third place.  One percent supports another candidate, and 9% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete September 18, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Joe Lhota must attract many Democrats to be competitive against the heavily favored Bill de Blasio, and right now, that’s not happening,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “De Blasio is very well-liked and is cornering the market on most of the issues and qualities that matter to voters.”

Candidate support divides along party lines.  However, de Blasio receives the backing of one in four likely Republican voters — 25% — while Lhota attracts merely 13% of Democrats.

By party:

  • 77% of likely Democratic voters citywide are for de Blasio.  This compares with 13% for Lhota, and 1% for Carrion.
  • Among Republicans who are likely to vote, more than six in ten — 63% — are behind Lhota.  A notable 25% support de Blasio, and 5% are for Carrion.
  • Half of non-enrolled voters who are likely to vote — 50% — support de Blasio.  24% back Lhota, and 9% are for Carrion.

There are also racial differences.  86% of African American voters who are likely to vote and 74% of likely Latino voters support de Blasio.  Lhota receives the support of 3% of African American voters and 11% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day.  The contest is closer among white voters who are likely to cast a ballot.  Here, de Blasio has the support of 50% to 37% for Lhota.

54% of likely New York City voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  33% are somewhat committed to their pick, and only 13% might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.

Looking at the candidates’ support, 58% of likely voters who are behind de Blasio strongly support him.  This compares with 47% of Lhota’s backers who express the same level of support.

Among registered voters in New York City, de Blasio — 63% — leads Lhota — 20%.  Four percent of registered voters citywide are for Carrion while 2% want to elect another candidate.  12% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners)

Many Voters View de Blasio Favorably… Lhota’s Rating Upside Down 

Nearly two in three registered voters citywide — 65% — have a positive impression of de Blasio.  19% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 16% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  It’s a different story for candidate Lhota.  41% have an unfavorable view of Lhota while 29% have a favorable impression of him.  A notable 30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Carrion, he is not well known to voters.  While 23% have an unfavorable opinion of him and 19% have a favorable view of Carrion, almost six in ten New York City registered voters — 58% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Adolfo Carrion Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

The Nitty-Gritty of Campaign Issues and Candidate Qualities 

How do voters compare de Blasio and Lhota on the issues?  In most areas, de Blasio outdistances Lhota by wide margins.  However, there are two notable exceptions.  De Blasio and Lhota are more competitive when it comes to who is better able to handle the city’s finances or who is more likely to keep crime down.

Among New York City registered voters:

  • 67% of registered voters think de Blasio is the candidate who will better unify the city.  19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure.
  • De Blasio — 65% — is also viewed as the candidate who is more likely to improve the city’s public schools.  18%, however, think Lhota is the candidate who has the tools to enhance the city’s schools, and 18% are unsure.
  • When it comes to making the city more affordable, more than six in ten — 63% — believe de Blasio is more capable of doing so.  This compares with 20% who have this opinion of Lhota.  17% are unsure.
  • 62% of voters say de Blasio better understands their problems.  22% report Lhota is the candidate who is more likely to identify with their concerns, and 16% are unsure.
  • Which candidate will better lead the city during a crisis?  A majority — 56% — thinks de Blasio will better lead during such a time.  30% believe Lhota is the man to turn to during a crisis, and 14% are unsure.
  • When it comes to keeping businesses in the Big Apple, 55% say de Blasio will do more to keep them in New York City.  More than three in ten — 31% — report Lhota is the candidate who will make the greater effort to ensure businesses remain in the city.  14% are unsure.
  • A majority of registered voters in New York City — 54% — view de Blasio as the mayoral candidate who has the experience to manage the city.  31% have this impression of Lhota, and 15% are unsure.
  • However, de Blasio — 45% — and Lhota — 35% — are more closely matched when voters choose the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances.  20% are unsure.
  • Similarly, when it comes to keeping crime down, 44% of voters think de Blasio will do a better job while 35% have this impression of Lhota.  About one in five voters — 21% — is unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who Better Understands the Problems of People Like Themselves (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Lead the City in a Crisis (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will do More to Keep Businesses in the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Many Voters View de Blasio’s Ideology as In Step… Little Consensus about Lhota 

59% of registered voters in New York City think de Blasio’s ideology is about right.  22% believe he is too liberal, and only 5% say he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.  When it comes to voters’ perceptions of Lhota, 32% report his ideology is about right.  31% think he is too conservative while 7% believe he is too liberal.  Nearly three in ten — 29% — are unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani Endorsement Not the Answer to Lhota’s Electoral Success

The endorsement of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani could do more harm than good for Lhota.  While 29% of registered voters citywide say Giuliani’s backing makes them more likely to support Lhota, a majority — 51% — says it makes them less likely to vote for him.  15% of voters report Giuliani’s endorsement makes no difference to their vote, and 5% are unsure.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide.  Nearly six in ten New York City Democrats — 59% — think Giuliani’s endorsement of Lhota makes them less likely to support him, and only 22% say it makes them more likely to back him.  Many Republican voters — 61% — view the Giuliani endorsement as a plus while 19% disagree.  46% of non-enrolled voters report Giuliani’s endorsement of Lhota makes them less likely to cast their ballot for him compared with 32% of these voters who see it as a positive.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Change is in the Air

68% of registered voters want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while just 25% want him to continue Mayor Bloomberg’s policies.  Seven percent are unsure.  Among registered voters who want to see the city move in another direction, 70% support de Blasio, and 14% back Lhota.  Among registered voters who want to continue the Bloomberg policies, 45% support de Blasio, and 34% back Lhota.

Stop and frisk is a Bloomberg-era policy many voters want to amend.  58% of registered voters citywide want the next mayor to significantly change the Bloomberg policy of stop and frisk.  36%, however, want the controversial policy to continue.  Seven percent are unsure.

Racial differences exist.  75% of African American voters and 63% of Latino voters want the policy of stop and frisk to be overhauled.  This compares with just 44% of white voters who share this view.

More than two-thirds of registered voters — 68% — agree with the centerpiece of the de Blasio campaign that the Big Apple is comprised of two cities.  One is made up of people who are struggling, and the other is comprised of those who are doing well.  However, 29% of registered voters disagree with this view and believe the city is one where people come together to solve their common problems.  Three percent are unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Should Significant Changes be Made to Stop and Frisk? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Does a Division Exist in New York City between Those Who are Struggling and Those Who are Doing Well? (NYC Registered Voters) 

Education and Economic Issues Viewed as Top Priorities for Next Mayor

Education and the economy are top of mind for New York City voters.  While 27% of voters in New York want the next mayor’s priority to be education, a plurality of voters — 39% — want the economy to be the new mayor’s focus.  This includes 22% who want jobs to be the number one issue and 17% who would like economic development to be the priority.  Rounding out the top five issues are housing with 8% and crime with 7%.  Other concerns include poverty — 6%, taxes — 5%, security from terrorism — 5%, race relations — 2%, and transportation — 1%.  One percent mentions something else as the next mayor’s top priority.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in June, 23% wanted the next mayor to focus on jobs.  20% thought education should be at the fore of the new mayor’s mind.  12% reported economic development should be the key while housing — 8% — and security from terrorism — 7% — also ranked high on the list of priorities.  Voters, at that time, were also concerned about taxes — 6%, crime — 6%, poverty — 5%, transportation — 2%, and race relations — 2%.  Eight percent wanted another issue to be the next mayor’s priority.

Table: Priority for the Next Mayor (NYC Registered Voters)

The Pre-K Conundrum… Voters Divide along Party Lines

With education at the top of the list of priorities for the next mayor, a majority of voters — 53% — wants to see taxes raised on higher income households to fund greater access to pre-kindergarten in the city.  40% believe the city should find the money within its budget to pay for it.  Two percent do not think pre-kindergarten is a priority, and 5% are unsure.  Opinions fall along party lines.  While 58% of Democrats and 51% of non-enrolled voters support increasing taxes to pay for more children to attend pre-kindergarten, 58% of Republicans believe the money should come from the city’s budget.

Table: Funding Pre-Kindergarten in New York City (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg Approval Rating at Lowest Point in Two Years

When it comes to Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job performance, 42% approve of the job he is doing in office.  This includes 9% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 33% who say he is doing a good one.  33% rate his performance as fair while 22% call it poor.  Two percent are unsure.  Bloomberg’s job approval rating is his lowest since August 2011.  At that time, 39% approved of how Mayor Bloomberg was doing in office.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll reported this question earlier this month, 46% approved of how Bloomberg was doing as mayor.  About one-third — 33% — gave him fair grades, and 19% believed he fell short.  Three percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg Defeated in Hypothetical Fourth Term Matchup

Given Mayor Bloomberg’s lackluster approval rating and the desire by many voters to move away from his administration’s policies, it’s not surprising that voters are ready for a new mayor.  If Mayor Bloomberg were allowed and chose to run for a fourth term as an independent, Bloomberg would finish a distant second behind de Blasio.  56% would support de Blasio.  20% would back Bloomberg while 17% would support Lhota.  Less than one percent would vote for someone else, and 7% are undecided.

Table: Hypothetical 2013 Race for New York City Mayor with Bloomberg (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Unsure about City’s Future but See Better Big Apple than in the Past 

Do voters think the city is moving in the right direction?  They divide.  46% believe the city is on the right track while 43% think it is moving in the wrong direction.  11% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll reported this question in the previous poll, similar proportions held these views.  47% said the city was on track while 43% reported it had lost its way.  10% were unsure.

But, overall, 61% of voters believe the city is better than it was 20 years ago.  23% say it is worse while 13% think it has stayed the same.  Three percent are unsure.

There are racial differences.  71% of white voters report the city has improved over the last two decades.  This compares with 54% of Latino voters and only 46% of African American voters who say the same.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Has New York City Gotten Better, Worse, or Has it Stayed the Same in the Past 20 Years? (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

9/12: The Role of Public Polls

September 12, 2013 by  
Filed under Blog, Featured, Lee Miringoff

This NYC primary season brought both an anticipated “poll-iferation” and an equally expected questioning of the reliability of public polls.  With the first round of 2013 citywide voting now over and primary day in our rear view mirror, let’s assess how the public polls fared.  (Helpful hint: we adhere to principles of transparency.  If you want to number crunch, check out the rest of the site.)

caricature of Lee MiringoffA clarification on the role of public polls is the first order of business.  The case is often made that public polls move voters and unduly influence the outcome of an election.  The argument typically takes the following form: everybody likes a winner and public polls become self-fulfilling.  If this view was correct, it would be understandable for candidates who trail in public polls to shoot the messenger for allegedly overstating a front-runner’s support.

But, this is not a position I subscribe to.  Christine Quinn, the early favorite, did not widen her lead.   No bandwagon effect here.  Eliot Spitzer would have taken his early measure of Stringer and won by a landslide.  In fact, front-runners would always be expected to run up the score as Election Day neared.  Au contraire.  The political graveyards are full of fallen front-runners.  There must be something more to the role of polls then the self-fulfilling prophecy.

The truth is, it’s the candidates and their campaigns that win or lose elections.  This doesn’t come as a revelation to anyone involved in the world of political consulting or political reporters well versed in survey methods.  Public polls, if done scientifically, monitor campaign developments and changes in candidate support.

Second, even if the above assertion were true, in this era of “poll-iferation,” voters would be able to find poll numbers for many different potential scenarios.  Think back to Obama-Romney last fall.  Public polls were often at odds over where the electorate stood. If you liked Romney, you could find evidence for his lead.  And, you didn’t have to search too far to find numbers to your liking if you were an Obama supporter.  No need to switch your allegiance because of poll findings.

Rather than being targeted erroneously, public polls serve a useful, and yes, even a vital function in today’s high tech politics.  They offer, if conducted well, an insightful narrative of a campaign.  They guide journalists and poll-watchers about the dynamics shaping the electorate.  What are the issues driving voters? How are they reacting to campaign developments? What is the composition of the electorate and the appeal of the candidates?  This primary, it was extremely interesting to see how Democratic voters were assessing term limits, stop and frisk, affordability,  the 12-year incumbency of Michael Bloomberg, and the television campaign ads… the so-called “Dante effect.”

Debate watchers, for example, may think candidate Anthony Weiner won a debate, but the poll can tell us if the voters were moved.  (They weren’t).  In fact, public polls informed the public and the media about the willingness of voters to give Anthony Weiner a second chance, but not a third. Yet, his initial rise in the polls, provided some insight into Quinn’s weakness as the early front-runner.  The public polls documented the rise in her negatives and, most recently, the de Blasio surge.

Public polls also let the public in on the secret of what the private campaign polls are showing and provide insight about how candidates shape their strategies to survive the rough and tumble world of Big Apple electoral politics.  Does an opponent step up the attacks on a frontrunner?  First, Quinn took the incoming from her rivals.  Then, de Blasio was the target.  Check out Thompson’s ads about de Blasio and stop and frisk.  Don’t you think their campaign polls were telling them something?  You betcha!

How did the public polls perform tracking the Democratic primary in NYC ’13? Phase one: Speaker Christine Quinn was the early front-runner, but never had a lock on the primary.  She was the target of attacks as she tried to delicately balance her legislative work with Mayor Bloomberg with her desire to provide some distance.  No fourth term was she.  But, Quinn was unable to navigate this tightrope successfully.

Phase two: Anthony Weiner entered the fray and emerged as a serious contender.  This suggested both weakness in Quinn as the early front-runner, and that New Yorkers were willing to give Weiner a second chance.  He, and later Spitzer, took all the oxygen out of the electoral room during the summer and stymied the rest of the Democratic field from making serious inroads.

But, voters experienced redemption overload when a second round of Weiner’s sexting scandal emerged.  As the public polls documented, his negatives soared.  He continued to make good copy for the media, and remained very visible in terms of his ads and debates.  But, end of story for Anthony Weiner.

Summer turned to fall and the TV air wars intensified.  Finally, the Democratic field had a chance to breathe.  The de Blasio campaign captured the attention of Democratic voters with a well-constructed ad featuring his son Dante, and cornering the issues of stop and frisk, term limit extension, and city affordability.  This carried him through the primary.  No band wagon effect.  It was a well-constructed campaign.

Primary polling is no picnic.  But, I’ll leave that for another time.  For the present, the public polls provided a useful narrative on this mayoralty contest.  Today starts a new day!

 

 

9/9: Final Countdown… de Blasio Leads Closest Competitors for New York City Mayor by Wide Margin

September 9, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Going into tomorrow’s primary for New York City mayor, Bill de Blasio has the support of 36% of Democrats who are likely to vote, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  Bill Thompson battles the onetime frontrunner, Christine Quinn, for second place.  Both candidates trail de Blasio by double digits.

Among likely Democratic voters in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 36% Bill de Blasio
  • 20% Bill Thompson
  • 20% Christine Quinn
  •   7% Anthony Weiner
  •   5% John Liu
  •   1% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  • <1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   1% Other
  •   8% Undecided

Click Here for Complete September 9, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“Bill de Blasio leads Quinn among women and Thompson among African Americans,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “His campaign is being fueled by Democratic voters’ dislike of extending term limits, the policy of stop and frisk, and of course, the Dante effect.”

Just three weeks ago, Quinn — 24%, de Blasio — 24%, and Thompson — 18% vied for the lead among likely Democratic voters.  In that previous NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Anthony Weiner received the support of 11% while 5% backed John Liu.  Two percent were behind Erick Salgado while Sal Albanese and Randy Credico each received 1%.  Less than one percent supported Neil Grimaldi, and 2% were for another candidate.  12%, at that time, were undecided.

From where do the candidates receive their support?

  • De Blasio does better among likely Democratic voters who are both white and liberal — 43%.  He does well among likely Democratic voters in Brooklyn — 40% — and Manhattan — 40%.  De Blasio also does well among likely Democratic voters who are African American — 39%, men — 38%, voters 45 or older — 38%, or those who consider themselves to be strong Democrats — 38%.
  • Although Quinn does not lead among any group of likely Democratic voters, she does well among those who live in Manhattan — 30%, those who are Jewish — 29%, or those who are white Catholics — 26%.
  • Thompson also does not lead among any group of likely Democratic voters.  However, he does well among those who live in the Bronx — 26%, those who live in union households — 26%, and those who are African American — 25%.

How strongly do likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference for mayor support their choice of candidate?  53% strongly support their choice of candidate while 33% are somewhat committed to their pick.  13% report they might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.  55% of de Blasio supporters say they strongly back their candidate while 53% of likely Democratic voters who prefer Thompson and 51% who pick Quinn express a similar intensity of support for their choice.

At a lower turnout, among very likely Democratic primary voters in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 37% Bill de Blasio
  • 21% Bill Thompson
  • 19% Christine Quinn
  •   7% Anthony Weiner
  •   5% John Liu
  •   1% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  • <1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   1% Other
  •   8% Undecided

Looking at registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, 33% back de Blasio.  Quinn receives the support of 21% while 20% are behind Thompson.  Weiner garners 9% of the vote while Liu has 6%.  Salgado and Albanese each has the backing of 1%.  Credico and Grimaldi each receive less than 1%.  One percent of New York City registered Democrats back another candidate, and 9% are undecided.

Last month, 24% of registered Democrats citywide supported Quinn.  De Blasio received the support of 21%.  16% were for Thompson, and 12%, at the time, were behind Weiner.  Liu had the support of 6% of New York City Democrats.  Two percent were for Salgado while Albanese garnered 1%.  One percent backed Credico while less than 1% was for Grimaldi.  Three percent wanted someone else, and 15% were undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Likely Democratic Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Democratic Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

De Blasio Leads Quinn and Thompson in Possible Runoff Races

If none of the candidates receives 40% of the vote in the primary, a runoff will be held.  How do the candidates fare in such a situation?

Among New York City Registered Democrats:

  • De Blasio — 56% — leads Quinn — 34%.  10% are undecided.  De Blasio has opened up a lead over Quinn.  In August’s survey, 44% of registered Democrats backed de Blasio compared with 42% for Quinn.  14%, at that time, were undecided.
  • Against Thompson, de Blasio also has the advantage.  Here, 50% of registered Democrats are for de Blasio compared with 38% for Thompson.  12% are undecided.  Last month, 44% backed de Blasio while 36% were for Thompson.  At that time, one in five — 20% — was undecided.

“Bill de Blasio is within striking distance of avoiding a runoff, but he still has some ground to cover to pull this off,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If there is a runoff, de Blasio starts as the early favorite.”

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Thompson vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Quinn’s Negative Rating Continues to Rise 

Quinn’s image has been tarnished in the eyes of many New York City Democrats.  Less than one month ago, a majority of registered Democrats had a positive view of Quinn, but  her favorable rating has continued to erode.  In contrast, de Blasio is the candidate most positively viewed.  Thompson also has a positive rating from a majority of registered Democrats citywide while Anthony Weiner’s favorability continues to scrape bottom.

  • About two-thirds of registered Democrats — 66% — have a favorable impression of de Blasio while 21% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  13% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 59% of Democrats thought well of de Blasio, 14% had a negative view of the candidate, and 26% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Thompson’s favorable rating, 59% have a positive opinion of him.  21% have an unfavorable view of him, and 20% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In August, 56% had a favorable view of Thompson.  18% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 26% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • Just 46% of registered Democrats now have a favorable view of Quinn while 42% have an unfavorable opinion of her.  12% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In August, 54% of registered Democrats thought highly of Quinn.  32%, at that time, had an unfavorable impression of her, and 13% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • Only 28% of registered Democrats have a favorable opinion of Weiner.  64% have an unfavorable view of him while 7% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  There has been little change on this question since last month when 26% had a favorable perception of Weiner, 63% had an unfavorable view of him, and 11% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

End Stop and Frisk, Say 52%… de Blasio Bests Competition on Issue 

More than half of New York City registered Democrats — 52% — do not want the next mayor to continue the controversial policy of stop and frisk.  40% want the practice to be continued, and 9% are unsure.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, 48% of registered Democrats wanted to put an end to stop and frisk.  44% wanted the policy to continue, and 8% were unsure.

With which candidate do New York City registered Democrats most closely identify on this issue?  37% report de Blasio’s position on stop and frisk comes closest to their opinion.  22% believe Thompson’s stance on the issue best reflects their own while 21% think Quinn’s position on stop and frisk is closest to their view.  Three percent believe another candidate is the closest match, and 17% are unsure.

Table: Should the Next Mayor Continue Stop and Frisk (NYC Democrats)

Table: Candidate who Comes Closest to Personal Opinion of Stop and Frisk (NYC Democrats)

De Blasio Viewed as Candidate Most Capable of Making City Affordable 

While almost six in ten registered Democrats in New York City believe making the city more affordable is out of the next mayor’s control, nearly four in ten Democrats say Bill de Blasio is the candidate who would be most able to ease the cost of living for the average family.

59% of registered Democrats citywide believe the cost of living in New York City is beyond the mayor’s control.  35% think the next mayor will be able to make the city more affordable, and 6% are unsure.  In June, 58% of registered Democrats said making the city more affordable was out of the mayor’s control.  35%, then, believed the next mayor could make the city more affordable, and 7% were unsure.

39% of registered Democrats have the most confidence in de Blasio to make the city more affordable.  24% say Thompson is the candidate best suited to take on the challenge while 20% say Quinn is most capable of improving the cost of living for the average family in New York City.  Four percent believe another candidate would be best able to make the Big Apple more affordable, and 13% are unsure.

How many registered Democrats in the city think it is an affordable place to live?  Just 12% think New York City is affordable.  This includes 2% who say it is very affordable and 10% who believe it is affordable.  A majority — 56% — reports it is not very affordable, and 33% say it is not affordable at all.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on June 27th, 14% of Democrats considered the city to be very affordable or affordable.  57% reported it was not very affordable, and 28% thought it was not affordable at all.

Table: Will the Next Mayor Make New York City More Affordable? (NYC Democrats)

Table: Candidate Best Able to Make NYC Affordable (NYC Democrats)

Table: The Cost of Living in New York City (NYC Democrats)

Paying a Toll for Extending Term Limits? 

In 2008, term limits were extended to allow Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for a third term.  When it comes to their vote for mayor now, do registered Democrats in New York City care whether or not a candidate supported that extension?  While 52% report it makes little difference to their vote, 36% say it makes them less likely to vote for such a candidate.  Only 9% report it makes them more likely to back a candidate, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Impact of Support for Term Limit Extension on Vote (NYC Democrats)

From the Stump to the Tube… de Blasio Gains Most from Campaign Commercials

A majority of registered Democrats — 51% — who have seen a campaign television commercial for de Blasio, Quinn, and Thompson think de Blasio’s ads top the charts.  20% say Thompson’s commercials are best while 16% believe Quinn’s campaign ads are most appealing.  13% are unsure.

What kind of an impact are these campaign television commercials having?  59% of registered Democrats who have seen an ad for de Blasio say they like him more after viewing it.  16% believe the information they gathered from the commercial made them like him less while 22% say the ad made no difference.  Three percent are unsure.  73% of registered Democrats report they have viewed a television ad for de Blasio.  25% have not, and 2% are unsure.

When it comes to Thompson, a majority of those who have seen one of his television commercials — 51% — say the ad made them like Thompson more after they saw it.  15%, however, say it had a negative impact on their opinion of the candidate, and 29% say it made no difference.  Four percent are unsure.  69% of registered Democrats citywide have seen a Thompson television commercial.  29% have not, and 2% are unsure.

While the television commercials for de Blasio and Thompson have been well received by registered Democrats, the same cannot be said for Quinn.  Just 36% of registered Democrats who have seen a television ad for Quinn say it made them like her more.  33% report it made them like her less, and 28% say it did not have an impact.  Three percent are unsure.  72% of registered Democrats have seen a television advertisement for Quinn.  26% have not, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Candidate with Best Campaign Ad (NYC Democrats Who Have Seen an Ad for de Blasio, Quinn, and Thompson)

Table: Impact of de Blasio Ads (NYC Democrats Who Have Seen an Ad for de Blasio)

Table: Seen a Campaign Ad for Bill de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Impact of Thompson Ads (NYC Democrats Who Have Seen an Ad for Thompson)

Table: Seen a Campaign Ad for Bill Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Impact of Quinn Ads (NYC Democrats Who Have Seen an Ad for Quinn)

Table: Seen a Campaign Ad for Christine Quinn (NYC Democrats)

NYC Comptroller’s Race Too Close to Call

In the Democratic contest for New York City comptroller, Eliot Spitzer — 47% — and Scott Stringer — 45% — are in a tight contest among likely Democratic voters in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  Less than one percent supports someone else, and 7% are undecided.

In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s August survey, 54% of Democrats who said they were likely to vote in the primary, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, backed Spitzer.  36% were for Stringer, and 1% was behind another candidate.  Nine percent were undecided.

When it comes to intensity of support, 54% of likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference for comptroller strongly support their choice of candidate.  32% are somewhat behind their selection for comptroller while 13% might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.  57% of likely Democratic voters who support Stringer are firmly committed to him.  This compares with 51% of Spitzer’s backers who strongly support him.

At a lower turnout, among very likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, Scott Stringer — 47% — is closely matched with Eliot Spitzer — 46%.  One percent supports someone else, and 7% are undecided.

“Stringer has closed a once double-digit lead by Spitzer to make this a tossup,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If turnout is low, Stringer’s chances of winning improve.”

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, 49% are for Spitzer compared with 41% for Stringer.  One percent want to elect another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

In August’s survey, Spitzer had the support of 53% of these voters compared with 34% who supported Stringer.  One percent, at that time, was for another candidate, and 11% were undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democratic Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for Comptroller Candidates (NYC Democratic Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Bloomberg Approval Rating Status Quo 

46% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 14% who think he is doing an excellent job and 32% who believe he is doing a good one.  33% rate Bloomberg’s performance as fair while 19% say he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.  Registered Democrats have a similar impression of how the mayor is doing in office.  44% approve of Mayor Bloomberg’s job performance while 54% do not.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist reported this question in August, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks.  31% thought his job performance was fair while 21% said he fell short.  Five percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters’ Impressions of City’s Direction Little Changed 

47% of registered voters citywide think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  43% believe it is moving on the wrong path, and 10% are unsure.  The city’s registered Democrats share this view.  47% are upbeat about the city’s trajectory, and 44% think it must change its course.  Nine percent are unsure.

In August, 46% of registered voters said the city was on the right track.  40% believed it was on the wrong course, and 14% were undecided.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

8/16: Tight Race in Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor… Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

August 16, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With less than a month to go until Primary Day, Democrats Christine Quinn and Bill de Blasio are locked in a tight race in their pursuit of the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor.  Bill Thompson is currently in third.  Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, just eight percentage points separate these three candidates, and only six percentage points are between them among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.  The scandal-ridden Anthony Weiner trails in fourth place.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 21% Bill de Blasio
  • 16% Bill Thompson
  • 12% Anthony Weiner
  •   6% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   3% Other
  • 15% Undecided

Click Here for Complete August 16, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“It’s been a topsy-turvy summer, and many Democratic voters are still waiting to be convinced,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although voters have yet to sort things out, Bill de Blasio has shown the biggest gain in the last couple of weeks.”

It was a very different contest just three weeks ago when the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question on July 25th.  At that time, Quinn — 25% — outpaced Weiner — 16% — by nine percentage points among New York City Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  De Blasio and Thompson each received the support of 14% of the Democratic electorate.  At that time, 7% backed John Liu while Erick Salgado had 2%.  One percent supported Sal Albanese, 2% were for another candidate, and 19% were undecided.

Where Are Top-Tier Candidates’ Strengths?

  • Quinn does better among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 33%, live in Manhattan — 30%, or who approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office — 29%.  She also does well among Democrats who are Catholic — 28% or Latino — 27%.
  • De Blasio does well among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 36%, who are Jewish — 30%, who live in Manhattan — 27%, or who earn $50,000 or more annually — 27%.  De Blasio has improved his standing among Democrats who are African American.  He currently receives the support of 20% of African American Democrats compared with 10% in the last poll.
  • Thompson does better among Democrats who are African American — 22%, but generally receives similar support from most other groups.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, de Blasio and Quinn each receive 24%.  18% back Thompson.  Weiner has the support of 11% of Democrats who are likely to cast a ballot while 5% are behind Liu.  Two percent are for Salgado, and 1% backs Albanese.  Credico has the support of 1%, and Grimaldi receives less than one percent.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

When it comes to intensity of support, a plurality of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference — 43% — say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  37% are somewhat committed to their pick while 17% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 42% said they were firmly committed to their candidate.  32% were somewhat behind their choice while 23% thought they might change their mind before casting their ballot.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

48% of de Blasio’s supporters say they will not waiver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 41% of New York City Democrats who rally for Thompson and 35% of those who are for Quinn.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Lhota Leads Catsimatidis for GOP Nod

Looking at the contest for the Republican nomination for mayor, Joe Lhota continues to have the advantage over John Catsimatidis.  George McDonald trails his GOP opponents by double-digits.  However, three in ten Republicans in New York City have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small number of registered Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 33% Joe Lhota
  • 22% John Catsimatidis
  • 12% George McDonald
  •   2% Other
  • 30% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, Lhota — 28% — led Catsimatidis — 21% — by 7 percentage points among New York City Republicans, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  10% backed George McDonald, and 1% were for another candidate.  40% were undecided.

How strongly committed are Republicans to their choice of candidate?  43% of those with a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice.  34% are somewhat behind their pick while 17% might change their mind.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Republican Mayoralty Candidate (NYC Republicans with a Candidate Preference)

No Runaway in Runoff Races… But de Blasio has Edge 

If none of the candidates receive 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary for mayor, a runoff for the Democratic nomination will be held.  How would the top-tier candidates fare in such a situation?

Among New York City Democrats:

  • When de Blasio and Quinn face off, de Blasio receives the support of 44% of registered Democrats compared with 42% for Quinn.  14% are undecided.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s June poll, Quinn — 47% — outpaced de Blasio — 33% — by 14 percentage points.  21% were undecided. Among likely Democratic voters, 47% are currently for de Blasio compared with 40% for Quinn.  12% are undecided.
  • Thompson — 44% — and Quinn — 43% — are also neck and neck among registered Democrats.  12% are undecided.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question nearly two months ago, Quinn received the support of 42% of Democrats compared with 40% for Thompson.  18%, at the time, were undecided.  Looking at likely Democratic voters this time, Thompson garners 47% to 42% for Quinn.  11% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives 44% compared with 36% for Thompson in a runoff among registered Democrats.  20% are undecided.  Among likely Democratic voters in this   survey, 47% are for de Blasio while 36% back Thompson.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Thompson vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Boost for de Blasio… Weiner’s Favorability at New Low

A majority of registered Democrats citywide view the top-tier Democratic candidates running for mayor positively.  This includes de Blasio who enjoys a bump in his positive rating.  Anthony Weiner’s favorability rating has sunk to an all-time low.

  • Nearly six in ten New York City Democrats — 59% — have a positive impression of de Blasio while 14% have an unfavorable view of the candidate.  26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, 52% thought highly of de Blasio.  19% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 56% of registererd Democrats have a favorable view of Thompson.  18% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In June, 60% had a positive opinion of Thompson, and 16% had an unfavorable impression of him.  25%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of registered Democrats — 54% — has a favorable impression of Quinn.  32% have an unfavorable opinion of her while 13% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In June, 57% thought well of Quinn, 29% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • When it comes to Weiner, 63% of registered Democrats citywide have an unfavorable opinion of him.  26% think well of him while 11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 55% had an unfavorable opinion of Weiner.  30% had a positive impression of the candidate, and 15% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

 

Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

In the Democratic primary for New York City comptroller, Eliot Spitzer receives majority support — 53% — among New York City registered Democrats including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  This compares with 34% for Scott Stringer.  One percent is for another candidate, and 11% are undecided.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 49% backed Spitzer, and 32% were for Stringer.  Two percent backed another candidate, and 17% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 54% are behind Spitzer while 36% are for Stringer.  One percent backs another candidate, and 9% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer — 48% — led Stringer — 36% — by 12 percentage points among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

48% of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference for comptroller strongly support their choice.  37% are somewhat committed to their candidate while 14% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

More registered Democrats today are strongly committed to their candidate selection for comptroller.  When this question was last reported on July 11th, 39% of Democrats with a candidate preference said they were firmly committed to their choice, and 36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick.  22% thought they might vote differently, and 2% were unsure.

A majority of Spitzer’s supporters — 51% — say they are firmly committed to their candidate.  This compares with 43% of Stringer’s backers who say the same.  There has been a notable increase in the proportion of Democrats who strongly support Stringer.  In early July, 30% of Stringer’s supporters were firmly committed to him.  This compares with 47% of those who firmly backed Spitzer at that time.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Comptroller Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Majority of Democrats Are Undecided in Public Advocate Race 

In the contest for the Democratic nomination for New York City’s public advocate, 51% of registered Democrats are undecided about which candidate to support.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 16% Letitia James
  • 12% Catherine Guerriero
  •   9% Daniel Squadron
  •   3% Reshma Saujani
  •   2% Sidique Wai
  •   7% Other
  • 51% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in its June 26th poll, James received the support of 17% of New York City registered Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  16% supported Guerriero.  Eight percent backed Squadron, and 4% were for Saujani.  Less than one percent supported another candidate, and 54% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 16% support James. Guerriero and Squadron each receives the backing of 12%.  Saujani has 3%, and 2% are for Wai.  Six percent want to elect another candidate, and 49% are undecided.

Among registered Democrats with a candidate preference for public advocate, 38% are strongly committed to their candidate.  34% somewhat back their choice while 25% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

In June, 34% strongly supported their candidate.  43% were somewhat behind their choice for public advocate while 20% reported they might change their mind.  Two percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

44% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 11% who say he is doing an excellent job and 33% who think he is doing a good one.  31% rate his performance as fair while 21% report he is doing poorly in office.  Five percent are unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 11th, similar proportions held these views.  46% said Bloomberg was doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  28% gave him fair grades while 21% believed his performance fell short.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)


 

A City on Track?

46% of registered voters in the Big Apple believe New York City is moving in the right direction.  40% think it is traveling in the wrong direction, and 14% are unsure.  This is the first time since September 2011 that the proportion of voters citywide who think the city is on the right course has fallen below 50%.  At that time, 42% said the city was on track, 52% reported it was off course, and 6% were unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in July, a slim majority of voters — 51% — said the city was moving in the right direction.  35% believed it needed a new course, and 14% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

7/25: Quinn Reclaims Lead from Weiner in Democratic Primary… Should Weiner Drop Out? Dems Divide

In light of new revelations that Anthony Weiner continued to engage in lewd online behavior after he resigned from Congress two years ago, Weiner now trails Christine Quinn in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor.  In this first poll conducted entirely after the latest scandalous details emerged, Quinn now outdistances Weiner by 9 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Christine Quinn
  • 16% Anthony Weiner
  • 14% Bill de Blasio
  • 14% Bill Thompson
  •   7% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 19% Undecided

Click Here for Complete July 25, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll*

“For many Democrats the latest revelations about Anthony Weiner are more of the same, only more so,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Weiner has lost his lead and his negatives are at an all-time high.”

There has been a 14 percentage point swing in the contest between Quinn and Weiner.  As noted, Quinn leads Weiner by 9 percentage points.  When the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question in June, Weiner — 25% — edged Quinn — 20% — by 5 percentage points among New York City Democrats including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Bill Thompson received the support of 13%.  At that time, 10% backed Bill de Blasio while 8% were for John Liu.  Erick Salgado had the support of 2%, and 1% was behind Sal Albanese.  One percent backed another candidate, and 18% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 26% are for Quinn compared with 17% for de Blasio who is in a statistical tie for second with Weiner at 16% and Thompson with 15%.  Liu has the backing of 7%, Salgado garners 2%, and 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 15% are undecided.

How committed to their choice of candidate are New York City Democrats with their candidate preference?  42% say they strongly support their choice.  32% are somewhat behind their pick while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 36% of Democrats with a candidate preference reported they were firmly in their candidate’s camp.  38% were somewhat behind their pick, and 23% thought they might change their minds before Election Day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Democrats who are for Weiner — 52% — are still more committed to their choice of candidate than backers of the other leading contenders.  37% of Quinn’s supporters strongly support her.  35% of Thompson’s backers have a similar intensity of support, and 33% of Democrats behind de Blasio are firmly committed to their candidate.  In June, 45% of Weiner’s supporters said they strongly supported him.  This compares with 34% of Quinn’s backers who expressed a similar intensity of support.  Results for Thompson and de Blasio are not available for the previous poll.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Weiner’s Negative Rating Soars

There has been a dramatic shift in Democrats’ impressions of Anthony Weiner from a similar poll conducted last month before the latest online sexual relationship came to light.  In the current survey, a majority of Democrats citywide have an unfavorable impression of Anthony Weiner.  55% have this view while three in ten — 30% — have a favorable opinion of the candidate.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  This represents the highest negative rating Anthony Weiner has received this election season.

In last month’s NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, a majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — had a favorable view of Weiner while 36% had an unfavorable opinion of him.  11%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

“New York City Democrats were willing to give Anthony Weiner a second chance but are reluctant to excuse his behavior now,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Democrats Divide Over Future of Weiner’s Candidacy

Despite the tawdry details of Weiner’s online sexual relationships, Weiner vows to fight on in his quest to become the next mayor of New York City.  But, do Democrats citywide want Weiner to remain in the race?  47% do while 43% want him to drop out of the contest.  10% are unsure.

What would the race look like without Weiner?  Quinn outpaces her closest competitor, Thompson, by 15 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner:

  • 32% Christine Quinn
  • 17% Bill Thompson
  • 16% Bill de Blasio
  •   9% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 20% Undecided

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 32% support Quinn compared with 20% for de Blasio.  18% are behind Thompson while Liu receives the support of 9%.  Two percent back Salgado while 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Table: Should Anthony Weiner Drop Out of the Race for New York City Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor without Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Do Weiner’s Online Sexcapades Matter to Democrats?

46% of New York City Democrats say Weiner’s online sexual relationships will impact their vote.  Included here are 33% who report Weiner’s activities will matter a great deal to their decision and 13% who say Weiner’s actions will matter a good amount.  49%, however, say these activities matter little or not at all when deciding their vote.  This includes 14% who say these revelations matter a little and 35% who say they don’t matter at all.  Five percent are unsure.

Anthony Weiner is not the only politician seeking forgiveness from the public.  Following a prostitution scandal that forced him out of office, former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is running for New York City comptroller.  However, Democrats citywide find Weiner’s behavior more egregious than Spitzer’s actions.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist asked Democrats earlier this month if Spitzer’s sex scandal would impact their vote, only 34% believed it would have an effect on how they cast their ballot, and 62% reported it would matter little or not at all.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: Impact of Weiner’s Online Sexual Relationships on Vote (NYC Democrats)

A Matter of Trust?  Abedin’s Support Does Little to Help Weiner

In a press conference on Tuesday, Huma Abedin, Anthony Weiner’s wife, publicly supported her husband and said she had forgiven him.  However, her commitment does little to help Weiner’s electoral chances.  Almost three in four Democrats — 73% — report Abedin’s support has no impact on how much trust they have in Weiner to be mayor.  15% say her backing makes them more likely to trust him while 12% say it makes them less likely to do so.

Table: Does Huma Abedin’s Support of Anthony Weiner Make You More or Less Likely to Trust Weiner as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Have Weiner’s Chances Run Out? 

Can New York City Democrats move beyond Weiner’s salacious activities and give him another chance?  Again, there is a divide.  47% believe Weiner deserves another chance in the public arena while 45% disagree and say he does not have the character to be mayor.  Nine percent are unsure.

When Marist last reported a similar question in May, 59% of Democrats thought Weiner should be given a second chance.  35% said he did not have the character to be mayor, and 6% were unsure.

Democrats are more willing to grant redemption to Eliot Spitzer.  Two weeks ago, 67% said Spitzer deserved another chance while one in four — 25% — believed he did not have the character to be comptroller.  Eight percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Does Anthony Weiner Deserve Another Chance? (NYC Democrats)

Just Four in Ten Think Weiner Would Do Well as Mayor 

Just 40% of Democrats citywide think Weiner would do an excellent or good job as mayor.  This includes 15% who say he would be an excellent mayor and 25% who report he would be a good one.  47% do not think he would excel as mayor, including 19% who believe he would do a fair job in the office while more than one in four — 28% — predict he would perform poorly in City Hall.  13% are unsure.

Once again, New York City Democrats express more faith in Eliot Spitzer.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s early July survey, 57% thought Spitzer would do either an excellent — 18% — or good — 39% — job as comptroller.  19% reported he would do a fair job, and 12% said he would fall short.  12%, then, were unsure.

Table: How Would Anthony Weiner Perform as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Spitzer with 17 Percentage Point Lead in the Race for NYC Comptroller 

Where does the contest for New York City comptroller stand?  Spitzer — 49% — leads Scott Stringer — 32% — by 17 percentage points among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Spitzer’s lead has widened.  Earlier this month, 42% of Democrats supported Spitzer while 33% were for Stringer.  One percent backed another candidate, and 24% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 48% support Spitzer compared with 36% for Stringer.  One percent supports another candidate, and 14% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer led Stringer 44% to 36% among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

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