5/28: Weiner Shows Gains on the Heels of Candidacy Announcement

Former Congressman Anthony Weiner formally declared his candidacy for mayor of New York City last week.  In the first poll since his online video announcement, Weiner places second with the support of 19% of the city’s registered Democrats.   New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn still leads but with only 24% of Democrats’ support, the lowest she has had in this race.

Anthony Weiner

Anthony Weiner

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 19% Anthony Weiner
  • 12% Bill de Blasio
  • 11% Bill Thompson
  •   8% John Liu
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  • <1% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Other
  • 23% Undecided

 Click Here for Complete May 28, 2013 NYC Marist Poll Release and Tables

 “The Democratic primary for mayor remains wide open,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “It is likely to come down to who can punch their ticket for the runoff.”

In April, amid speculation Weiner would enter the race for mayor, he garnered the support of 15% of registered Democrats.  Quinn at that time received 26%, a lead of eleven points.  12%, last month, indicated they would vote for John Liu.  Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson each received 11%.  Sal Albanese had 2%, and 1% mentioned another candidate.  22% were undecided.

The race continues to be fluid although slightly more Democrats are committed to their vote than in April.  39% of Democrats who have a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice, and an additional 35% are somewhat behind their candidate.  25% might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  In April, only 34% strongly supported their choice, 30% somewhat supported their candidate, and 35% reported they might vote differently.  Two percent were unsure.

Intensity of support varies for the two frontrunners.  Among those who support Christine Quinn, 30% are strongly behind her, and 42% somewhat support her. 24% say they might vote differently, and 4% are undecided.  Anthony Weiner’s supporters are a bit stronger in their backing.  43% strongly support him while 38% are somewhat supportive. 17% might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Quinn receives 24% followed by Weiner with 19%, de Blasio with 14%, Thompson with 13%, Liu with 8%, Albanese with 1%, and Salgado with less than 1%.  21% of likely Democrats are undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Quinn Leads Hypothetical Runoffs

If none of the candidates garners 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary, a runoff will be held between the top two vote getting candidates.   Quinn leads in hypothetical runoffs against other Democratic candidates:

  • Quinn garners 48% to 33% for Anthony Weiner. 18% are undecided.
  • Quinn with 48% tops de Blasio with 30%.  22% remain undecided.
  • Quinn has majority support, 53%, against Liu who receives 25%.  22% are undecided.
  • Against Thompson, Quinn receives 44% of Democrats’ support to 34% for Thompson.  22% are undecided

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Majority Willing to Give Weiner a Second Chance, But….

How do registered voters in New York City react to Anthony Weiner’s candidacy when considering the sexting scandal that resulted in his resignation from Congress?  A majority of voters — 53% — say he deserves a second chance.  39% believe Weiner does not have the character to be mayor, and 8% are unsure.  Among Democrats, 59% think he deserves a second chance.  58% of non-enrolled voters feel the same.  However, six in ten Republicans — 61% — believe he does not have the character to be mayor.

But registered Democrats divide when asked about their impressions of Weiner.  44% of Democrats view him favorably, while 44% do not. 12% are unsure.  In April, 45% of the city’s Democrats had a favorable view of Weiner, and 41% had a negative view of him.  15% were unsure at the time.

Table: Anthony Weiner Second Chance (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Most Democratic Candidates for Mayor Viewed Favorably, But Not Well Known

Among the other candidates for the Democratic nomination for mayor, most are seen in a positive light by Democratic voters:

  • Christine Quinn is the most well-known.  She is viewed favorably by 60% of registered Democrats and unfavorably by 26%. 14% are unsure or have never heard of her.  This is relatively unchanged from April when 59% viewed her positively and 23% had a negative impression of her.  18% were unsure how to rate her or hadn’t heard of her.
  • Bill Thompson receives a positive rating from 52% of Democrats compared with 17% who have a negative view of him.  About three out of ten Democrats, 31%, are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  In April, 43% of Democrats viewed Thompson favorably while 21% did not.  36% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • Bill de Blasio is viewed favorably by 50% of registered Democrats and unfavorably by 19%.  30% of registered Democrats are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last month, 42% of New York City Democrats viewed him positively, and 23% viewed him negatively.  35%, at that time, were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • 45% of registered Democrats give John Liu a positive rating.  31% have a negative impression of him, and 24% are unsure how to rate him or haven’t heard of him.  In April, 40% viewed him favorably, and 32% viewed him unfavorably.  28% were unsure how to rate him or hadn’t heard of Liu.
  • Sal Albanese remains relatively unknown.  18% of Democrats have a positive impression of him, and 26% view him negatively.  A majority — 55% — are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last month, 18% had a favorable impression of him, and 27% viewed him unfavorably. 55% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • Erick Salgado is the least known candidate in the Democratic field.  60% of registered Democrats are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  13% of Democrats have a positive impression of him while 27% do not.

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Erick Salgado Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Interest in Mayor’s Race Remains Low

Only 41% of registered voters in the city are paying attention to the campaign for mayor.  This includes 12% who are following it very closely and 29% who are watching it closely.  A plurality — 43% — are not following the race very closely, and another 16% are not paying attention to it at all.

These numbers are mostly unchanged from April when 38% of registered voters said they were paying very close or close attention to the race for mayor.  At that time, 45% were not following it very closely, and 18% were not following it at all.

Democrats are not much different in their attentiveness to the campaign than city voters as a whole.  44% of registered Democrats are currently following the campaign for mayor closely, and 55% are not.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race (NYC Registered Voters)

City Moving in Right Direction, Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Steady

A majority of New York City voters — 52% — think the city is moving in the right direction.  37% believe it is going in the wrong direction, and 11% are unsure.  Similarly, when Marist last reported this in April, 55% of registered voters said the city was on the right track.  38% said the city needed a course correction, and 7% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

Mayor Bloomberg’s approval rating also remains steady.  48% give him high marks, including 12% who say Bloomberg is doing an excellent job as mayor and 36% who say he is doing a good job.  30% rate his job performance as fair, and 19% say he is doing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 46% approved of how Bloomberg was performing as mayor. 32% said he was doing a fair job, and 21% rated his job performance as poor.  One percent was unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

2/14: NYC Mayoralty: Quinn Leads Democratic Field…Lhota Ahead Among GOP

February 14, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will leave office at the end of the year.  So, who could be his successor?  Looking at the Democratic contest, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads her closest opponent by almost three-to-one.

Election Papers

©istockphoto.com/LilliDay

Click Here for Complete February 14, 2013 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Among registered Democratic voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 37% Christine Quinn
  • 13% Bill Thompson
  • 12% Bill de Blasio
  •   9% John Liu
  •   2% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Other
  • 26% Undecided

“An open seat is attracting a crowd,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Right now, Quinn is in the driver’s seat, but the race is still very fluid.”

Quinn has improved her standing among New York City Democrats.  In fact, her support has rebounded to more than what it was last spring.  When NY1-Marist reported this question in October, Quinn received the support of 23% of Democrats.  15% backed former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  Nine percent gave their support to current City Comptroller John Liu while Public Advocate Bill de Blasio garnered 8%.  Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer had 6%, and the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, received 2%.  At that time, 37% were unsure.  In NY1-Marist’s April survey, 32% of New York City Democrats supported Quinn.

How committed to their choice are Democrats with a candidate preference?  30% strongly support their pick.  34% are somewhat behind their candidate while 32% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

What are New York City Democrats’ impressions of these mayoral aspirants?

  • 65% have a favorable opinion of Quinn while 17% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
  • Looking at Thompson, nearly half — 49% — have a favorable impression of him while 20% do not.  31% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • 48% of New York City Democrats have a positive view of de Blasio while 20% have an unfavorable one.  32% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Liu, 43% have a favorable impression of him while 27% have an unfavorable one.  30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • Only 26% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Albanese while 20% have an unfavorable view of him.  A majority — 54% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

On the Republican side, former MTA Chairman Joe Lhota has the advantage over opponents for his party’s nomination but by no means a lock.  A majority of Republicans citywide — 55% — are undecided.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 20% Joe Lhota
  •   8% George McDonald
  •   5% John Catsimatidis
  •   4% Tom Allon
  •   3% Adolfo Carrion
  •   2% A.R. Bernard
  •   3% Other
  • 55% Undecided

Hopefuls in the Republican field lack name recognition.  Except for Lhota, a majority of New York City Republicans do not offer an impression of the potential Republican nominees for mayor.

    • 42% of GOP voters think well of Lhota while 12% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • 30% have a favorable view of Businessman John Catsimatidis while 14% have an unfavorable one.  A majority — 56% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • When it comes to former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion, 20% perceive him positively while 21% do not.  59% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • Advocate George McDonald is viewed well by 18% of Republicans citywide.  17%, however, have an unfavorable impression of him.  Nearly two-thirds — 65% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • Just 16% say they have a positive opinion of Manhattan Media publisher Allon.  This compares with 17% who have an unfavorable view of him.  67% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
    • Only 12% think well of Reverend A.R. Bernard.  18% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate, and seven in ten — 70% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

While former Congressman Anthony Weiner has not announced a candidacy for public office, there has been speculation about his political intentions.  Weiner, though, has a perception problem.  Only 30% of registered voters in New York City view him favorably.  46% have an unfavorable impression of him while 24% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Adolfo Carrion Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Tom Allon Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: A.R. Bernard Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

From the Primary to the General…Democrats Outdistance GOP Hopeful Lhota
 
When it comes to November’s general election, how do the candidates fare in head-to-head matchups?  Among New York City registered voters:

      • Quinn — 64% — outpaces Lhota — 18%.  18% are undecided.
      • If Thompson were to face-off against Lhota, Thompson — 61% — surpasses Lhota — 19%.  20% are undecided.
      • When de Blasio and Lhota square off, 60% back de Blasio compared with 18% for Lhota.  22% are undecided.
      • 56% are for Liu while 20% are behind Lhota.  23% are undecided.
      • In a race between Albanese and Lhota, 52% support Albanese compared with 21% for Lhota.  27% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Thompson/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Liu/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Albanese/Lhota

Third Party Candidate Makes Little Difference
 
If Adolfo Carrion decided to run on an independent line, how would the race shape up?

Among New York City registered voters:

    • Quinn has the support of 59% to 17% for Lhota.  Carrion receives 8%, and 17% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota/Carrion

Former Mayors Could Do More Harm than Good in General Election, But…
 
A candidate endorsement by Mayor Bloomberg may not bolster that candidate’s prospects.  If Bloomberg were to endorse a candidate, 36% of the electorate would be more likely to vote for that candidate while 44% would be less likely to vote for him or her.  14% report Bloomberg’s endorsement would make no difference to their vote, and 7% are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 28% said they would be more inclined to cast their ballot for a Bloomberg-endorsed candidate while 42% believed such a backing would make them less likely to support that candidate.  18% thought it would make no difference to their vote, and 11% were unsure.

What if former Mayor Rudy Giuliani were to endorse a candidate?  While Giuliani’s backing would do little to bolster such a candidate in the general election, it could pay dividends in the Republican primary.

Among New York City registered voters, 38% would be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Giuliani while 46% would be less likely to vote for that person.  Nine percent report it would make little difference to their vote, and 6% are unsure.

However, among Republicans citywide, 71% would be more inclined to support a candidate who receives Giuliani’s stamp of approval.  17% would be less likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 9% say it wouldn’t matter one way or the other.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

Table: Impact of Giuliani Endorsement

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample