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Poll Hub: High on the Hooey


Poll Hub: High on the Hooey

Why using the theory of social desirability to explain variance in poll results is a flawed argument

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A recent Washington Post analysis by Philip Bump asserts Democrats are more likely to say they approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance when they respond to a poll conducted online or via IVR than by telephone. In turn, Bump argues, the president’s job approval rating is higher in polls conducted online rather by phone.

In this episode, the Poll Hub team debunks Bump’s analysis through an in-depth discussion of social desirability, mode effects, and a study from the Pew Research Center and explains why omitting house effects from the analysis of survey research is dangerous.

Then, concern over Russian meddling in this year’s midterm elections is growing. Poll Hub dives into the latest Marist Poll numbers, and one of the team’s own eats a little crow.

About Poll Hub

Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll) and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

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