The special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama has been a near-perfect encapsulation of problems with political polls. Some have used proven scientific methods, others have not. Some have been transparent with their data and methodology, others… not so much. And then there are the poll averages.
The widely reported Real Clear Politics’ last poll average prior to Election Day had Republican Roy Moore up by 2.2% over Democrat Doug Jones. The final results will likely have Jones winning by roughly 1.5%. Is this a polling problem or a reporting problem? We talk this over with Amy Walter, National Editor of The Cook Political Report and then discuss the implications of the Alabama results on the 2018 midterm elections. Will President Donald Trump’s enduring unpopularity catch up with Republicans in Congress? Can Democrats take advantage of the current climate? Will Trump change course?
About Poll Hub
Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of the Marist Poll) and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.