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NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of Arizona

March 16, 2020 | by

In the Democratic primary contest in Arizona, Joe Biden (53%) surpasses Bernie Sanders (36%) by 17 points among likely Democratic primary voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Only 7% of the likely Democratic electorate are persuadable. That is, they are either undecided or might change their minds before casting a ballot.

Among early voters, Biden (53%) leads Sanders (33%) by 20 points. Among likely voters who have yet to cast a ballot, Biden (53%) leads Sanders (39%) by 14 points.

Biden bests Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as moderate (+47 points), white voters (+29 points), and those who are age 45 or older (+44 points). Regardless of gender, Biden leads Sanders. Biden’s lead among women (+23 points) is more than twice his lead among men (+10 points).

Sanders has the advantage over Biden among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as progressive (+14 points), who are Latino (+16 points), and those under the age of 45 (+36 points).

74% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate. 75% of Biden’s supporters and 72% of Sanders’ backers express a strong commitment to their choice of candidate.

Arizona residents divide about the job performance of President Donald Trump. 47% approve, including 32% who strongly do so. 45% disapprove. This includes 34% who strongly disapprove of how the president is doing his job.

In a hypothetical general election matchup against President Trump, Biden (47%) and Trump (46%) are in a statistical tie among registered voters in Arizona. Five percent are undecided. Biden (61%) has an overwhelming lead against Trump (30%) among Latino voters. He is also ahead of Trump among voters under the age of 45 (+9 points), independents (+8 points), women (+8 points), and white college graduates (+7 points).

Trump (53%) is ahead of Biden (42%) among white voters, including white men without a college degree (+37 points). Among men overall, Trump is +7 points over Biden. Voters age 45 and older divide. 49% of these voters support Trump, and 45% are for Biden.

When matched against Sanders, Trump receives 48% of the vote to 45% for Sanders. Trump (55%) outpaces Sanders (38%) among white voters, including white men without a college degree (+40 points). The president also has an 11-point advantage over Sanders among voters 45 or older and among men overall.

Sanders outdistances Trump among Latino voters (+26 points) and has a double-digit lead against Trump among voters under the age of 45 (+11 points). Sanders (46%) has a slight edge against Trump (41%) among independent voters. 11% of independents are undecided. Among women, Sanders (49%) has a 5-point edge against the president (44%).

While Trump (63%) has a wide lead over Sanders (31%) among white voters without a college degree, white voters with a degree divide. 47% support Sanders, and 46% are for Trump.

“Arizona is likely to attract a great deal of attention as a competitive Sunbelt state for the general election,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As much as the presidential battle for the state’s 11 electoral votes will attract headlines, the contest for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat will be pivotal in determining the makeup of the next senate.”

In the U.S. Senate race in Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly (48%) and Republican Martha McSally (45%) are competitive among registered voters statewide. Among independents, 50% support Kelly, and 39% are for McSally. 10% are undecided.

Looking ahead to November’s congressional elections, 47% of registered voters say they prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. 42% want one controlled by Democrats, and 11% are unsure. Of note, there is little consensus among independents. 39% want a Congress controlled by Republicans while 37% want one with Democrats in charge. Nearly one in four (24%) are unsure.

 Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Arizona

 Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Arizona (Annotated Questionnaire)

 Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Arizona (Tables)

 Marist Poll Methodology

 Nature of the Sample

NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of Ohio

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In the Democratic presidential primary contest in Ohio, Joe Biden (58%) leads Bernie Sanders (35%) by 23 points among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Only 14% of the likely Democratic electorate are persuadable. That is, they are either undecided or might change their minds before heading to the polls.

“So far this primary season, Biden has laid claim to the industrial Midwest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “There is every reason to think the Buckeye State will also go his way on Tuesday.”

More than six in ten Democrats likely to vote in the primary (62%) and half (50%) of those who identify as independent support Biden. This compares with 32% of Democrats and 41% of independents who back Sanders.

Biden (79%) outpaces Sanders (16%) by 63 points among those who identify as moderate. Biden also has wide leads among likely Democratic voters age 45 or older (+55 points), white voters (+25 points), and African Americans (+26 points). Regardless of gender, Biden receives majority support (60% among women and 55% among men).

Sanders leads Biden among progressives (+22 points) and has twice the support of Biden among likely Democratic primary voters under the age of 45 (+31 points). Sanders does especially well among Millennials and those in Gen Z. Among these voters, Sanders (69%) has a 47-point lead over Biden (22%).

Of note, 43% of the likely Democratic primary electorate in Ohio identify as progressives while 50% identify as moderate.

68% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate. Similar proportions of Biden’s supporters (69%) and Sanders’ backers (66%) express a high level of support for their respective candidate.

Ohio residents divide about President Donald Trump’s job performance. 46% approve of how he is doing his job, including 33% who strongly approve of his performance. 47% disapprove, including 37% who strongly have this opinion.

In hypothetical general election matchups against President Trump, Biden (49%) is +4 points over Trump (45%) among Ohio registered voters while Sanders (48%) is +2 points over Trump (46%).

“With an eye to November, it looks like the contest for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes is very much in play,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.   “Add Ohio to the list of battleground states for the general election.”

In matchups against Trump, both Biden and Sanders receive majority support among independents and women. The Democrats do well among white women with a college education. However, Biden (+21 points) outperforms Sanders (+14 points) among this group when paired against the president. Biden and Sanders garner overwhelming support among African American voters in Ohio.

Trump receives majority support against Biden and Sanders among men. The president leads among white men without a college education. Among white voters in general, Trump (50%) is +6 points over Sanders (44%). Against Biden, 49% of white voters support Trump, and 46% are for Biden.

Both Sanders and Biden have the advantage over Trump among voters under the age of 45. However, Sanders’ margin against the president (+13 points) is more than twice that of Biden’s (+6 points) among younger voters. Among voters age 45 or older, Biden has 49% to 46% for Trump. In contrast, Trump receives 48% to 44% for Sanders among these voters.

Regarding the November 2020 elections, Ohio registered voters divide about whether they want a Congress controlled by Democrats (45%) or Republicans (44%). Among independents, 43% prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, and 36% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress. A notable 21% are unsure.

Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Ohio

Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Ohio (Annotated Questionnaire)

Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Ohio (Tables)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NBC News Marist Poll Results and Analysis of Texas

March 1, 2020 | by

In the Democratic presidential primary contest in Texas, Bernie Sanders (34%) has a commanding lead over Joe Biden (19%) and Michael Bloomberg (15%), among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Elizabeth Warren (10%) is the only other candidate who receives double-digit support. 23% of likely Democratic primary voters are persuadable. That is, they are either undecided or might change their mind before heading to the polls.

“Texas is the second-largest delegate trove of the 14 states on Super Tuesday with 228 delegates at stake,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Sanders is positioned to carry the state although nearly one in four likely voters is still on the fence.”

Sanders receives majority support (53%) from likely Democratic primary voters who are under the age of 45, including 57% of Millennials and Gen Z. Biden (10%) and Bloomberg (8%) trail far behind Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters under the age of 45.

Sanders (47%) is running up the score over his competitors, Biden (12%), Bloomberg (11%), and Buttigieg (11%) with independents likely to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary. Sanders (46%) also outdistances Biden (14%), Warren (13%), and Bloomberg (11%) among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as progressive. Among Latinos, Sanders (46%) also has a sizeable advantage over Bloomberg (14%) and Biden (13%). Among whites, Sanders (28%) has a healthy, yet smaller, lead over Biden (16%), Warren (15%), and Bloomberg (14%). Regardless of gender, Sanders is ahead. Although, compared to Biden, Sanders does better among men (+28 points) than women (+7 points).

Biden (27%) bests Bloomberg (21%) and Sanders (18%) among members of the likely Democratic primary electorate who are age 45 or older. Biden (30%) is also +6 points over Sanders (24%) among African Americans. Bloomberg receives 20% among this group. Among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as moderate, Biden (26%) is competitive with Sanders (22%).

59% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate. More than two in three Sanders’ supporters (68%), compared with 52% of Biden’s supporters and 51% of Bloomberg’s backers, report a strong commitment to their candidate.

46% of the likely Democratic primary electorate think it is more important that the party’s nominee is closest to them on the issues while 44% believe it is more important that the nominee has the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump in November. Among Democrats, 49% prioritize electability over positions on the issues (41%). In contrast, a majority of independents (57%) emphasize a candidate’s positions on the issues rather than their ability to defeat Trump (32%).

Progressives and moderates are mirror images of each other. 49% of progressives say a candidate’s stance on the issues is more important while 42% say electability is crucial. Moderates report the exact opposite.

Sanders (43%) has more than three times the support of either Biden (13%) or Bloomberg (13%) among likely Democratic primary voters who think it is more important that the party’s nominee reflect their positions on the issues. Sanders (25%) and Biden (24%) are competitive among those who favor electability.

President Trump (94%) has an overwhelming lead over Bill Weld (4%) among likely Republican primary voters in Texas including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have voted already. 84% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.

Texans divide about the president’s job performance. 46% of adults statewide say they approve of how he is doing his job, including 31% who strongly do so. 44% disapprove, including 31% who are strongly of this opinion.

In hypothetical general election matchups against the president, Trump is +4 percentage points over both Sanders and Biden. Against Sanders, 49% of registered voters in the state are for Trump while 45% are for Sanders. The contest is identical against Biden. Trump receives 49% support to 45% for the former vice president. Trump carried Texas by nine points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

In each of these potential contests, Trump leads Sanders and Biden among white voters, especially those without a college degree, men, including a majority of those who live in small cities or the suburbs, and voters over the age of 45.

Sanders has a commanding lead among independents while Biden edges Trump among these voters. The Democrats also have the advantage over Trump among African Americans, Latinos, women, including a majority of those who live in small cities or suburbs, and voters under the age of 45.

48% of Texas voters prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans as a result of November’s elections. 42% want one controlled by Democrats. Among independents, 43% want the Democrats in command, and 36% want the Republicans at the helm. A notable 21% are unsure.

In a very crowded field, there is no clear frontrunner in the race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. MJ Hegar is the only candidate who receives double-digit support (16%) among likely Democratic primary voters, and a notable 34% are undecided. Not surprisingly, only 38% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate, and 22% say they might vote differently on primary day. With 50% needed to avoid a runoff, it is very likely that the top two vote getters on Tuesday will face each other in May.

In a hypothetical general election contest, against incumbent John Cornyn, Cornyn (49%) is +8 points over Hegar (41%) among Texas registered voters. In 2014, Cornyn carried the state by 28 points.

Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Texas

 Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Texas (Annotated Questionnaire)

 Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Texas (Tables)

 Marist Poll Methodology

 Nature of the Sample

NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of North Carolina

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In the North Carolina presidential primary for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders (26%) and Joe Biden (24%) are closely matched among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Michael Bloomberg receives 15%. Warren (11%) is the only other candidate in the field who receives double-digit support. 22% of likely Democratic primary voters are persuadable, that is, those who are undecided or who may change their minds prior to the primary.

“North Carolina is a tossup between Sanders and Biden for Super Tuesday,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “It is also a state that could very well be in play for its electoral votes in November as both of these Democrats run competitively against President Trump among registered voters at this point.”

Biden (28%) and Sanders (26%) are in a tight battle for likely Democratic primary voters who identify as Democrats while Sanders (29%) leads Bloomberg (17%) and Biden (15%) among independents.

Biden (35%) has a 17-point lead over Bloomberg (18%) among likely Democratic primary voters who self-identify as moderate. Sanders receives 14% support among this group. Among African Americans, Biden (36%) is +12 points over Sanders (24%). Bloomberg has the support of 17% of African Americans likely to vote in the primary. Although narrower, Biden (27%) is also ahead among likely Democratic primary voters who are age 45 or older. Bloomberg receives 18% of the older vote, and Sanders garners 16%.

In contrast, Sanders (43%) outpaces Warren (16%), Biden (15%), and Bloomberg (12%) among those who consider themselves to be progressive. Sanders (43%) also outdistances Biden (18%) and Warren (13%) among likely Democratic primary voters in North Carolina under the age of 45. Half of Millennials and Gen Z likely to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary support Sanders. Among white voters, Sanders is also ahead. He receives 26% to 17% for Biden and 16% for Bloomberg.

53% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference including those who already voted say they strongly support their choice of candidate. Sanders’ supporters (61%) and Biden’s supporters (58%) are more enthusiastic about their choice of candidate than are backers of Bloomberg (47%).

48% of likely Democratic primary voters in North Carolina say it is more important that their party’s nominee is a candidate who has the best chance to defeat President Donald Trump in November rather than one who aligns with them on the issues (42%). A majority of moderates (53%) report their priority is electability. Progressives divide. 47% think electability is more important, and 45% say a candidate’s positions on the issues are critical.

Biden (31%) leads Bloomberg (18%) and Sanders (17%) among those who value electability. Sanders (37%) has the advantage over Biden (16%), Bloomberg (12%), and Warren (12%) among likely Democratic primary voters who say it is more important that the party’s nominee is closest to them on the issues.

Among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted, President Trump (93%) obliterates Bill Weld (6%) in Weld’s primary challenge to the president. 86% of likely Republican primary voters with a choice of candidate say they strongly support their candidate in the presidential primary.

North Carolina residents divide about Trump’s job performance as president. 44% of adults statewide approve of how Trump is doing his job, including 30% who strongly do so. 47% of North Carolinians disapprove, including 37% of residents who strongly disapprove. A plurality of independents (48%) also disapprove of how the president is performing in office.

Both Biden and Sanders are competitive against Trump in hypothetical general election matchups. Biden receives 49% to 45% for Trump among North Carolina registered voters. Sanders garners 48% to 46% for the president. Trump carried the state by 4 points in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.

In each of these hypothetical contests, Trump bests Sanders and Biden among men and white voters. Trump receives more than twice the support against each of them among white voters without a college degree. Among men who live in small cities and suburbs, Trump (50%) is ahead of Sanders (44%) by 6 points. Trump (50%) edges Biden (47%) among these voters by 3 points.

Biden and Sanders best Trump among African American voters, women, including about six in ten women who live in small cities and the suburbs, and voters under the age of 45. Registered voters in North Carolina who are age 45 or older divide. Trump (47%) is +2 percentage points against Sanders (45%), and Biden (48%) is +1 over Trump (47%).

Of note, Trump (50%) is +6 points over Sanders (44%) among white voters with a college education. Biden (48%) and Trump (47%) split the support of this group.

46% of North Carolina registered voters say they prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats as a result of November’s elections. 42% favor a Republican-controlled Congress, and 12% are unsure. Among independents, 40% say they want the Democrats in control, 38% prefer the Republicans in the majority, and a notable 21% of independents are unsure.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Cal Cunningham (51%) has majority support and leads his closest competitor, Erica Smith (18%), by 33 percentage points among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have already voted. No other candidate has double-digit support. One in four North Carolina Democrats likely to cast a ballot in the Senate primary (25%) are undecided. 50% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice of candidate.

In a hypothetical general election matchup between Cunningham and Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, Cunningham (48%) is ahead of Tillis (43%) by 5 points among registered voters in North Carolina. Tillis narrowly defeated incumbent Senator Kay Hagan in 2014.

Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of North Carolina

Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Annotated Questionnaire)

Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Tables)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of South Carolina

February 24, 2020 | by

In the South Carolina presidential primary for the Democratic nomination, Joe Biden (27%) narrowly bests Bernie Sanders (23%) among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Tom Steyer receives 15% of the likely Democratic electorate. No other candidate in the field achieves double-digit support. 27% of likely Democratic primary voters remain persuadable, that is those who are undecided or who may change their minds prior to the primary.

“South Carolina closes the chapter on the first phase of the presidential sweepstakes,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Will Biden come off the canvas? Will Sanders continue his charge to Super Tuesday? Will someone else emerge as a top tier candidate? South Carolina voters hold the answers.”

Biden outpaces his competitors by double digits among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as moderate, who are African American, or who are age 45 or older. Among moderates, Biden (38%) is out in front of Sanders (15%) and Steyer (15%) by 23 percentage points. Biden is ahead of Sanders by 15 points among African American voters. Here, Biden has 35% to 20% for Sanders. Steyer garners 19% of likely Democratic voters who are African American. Among voters who are age 45 or older, Biden (34%) enjoys a 16-point lead over Steyer (18%). Among women, Biden (28%) has an 8-point advantage over Sanders (20%).

In contrast, Sanders (34%) has a 14-point lead over Biden (20%) among likely Democratic primary voters who self-identify as progressive. Steyer receives 16% of these voters while Warren has 13%. Sanders (40%) leads Biden (14%) and Warren (14%) by 26 points among likely Democratic primary voters who are under the age of 45. Among likely Democratic primary voters who are white, Sanders (26%) has an 8-point lead over Biden (18%). Buttigieg receives the support of 17% of white voters who are likely to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary. Sanders (26%) and Biden (25%) are statistically tied among men.

Six in ten likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference (60%) say they strongly support their choice of candidate. Sanders’ supporters (72%) are the most committed to their candidate selection. 61% of Biden’s backers and 60% of Steyer’s supporters say the same.

South Carolinians likely to vote in the Democratic primary divide. 47% think it is more important to have a nominee that comes closer to their views on the issues, and 44% say it is more important to have a nominee who can defeat President Donald Trump in the general election. Moderates (51%) are more likely to favor electability while 41% see issues as their priority. 49% of progressives are more likely to say a candidate’s position on the issues is the priority, and 43% consider electability to be more important.

Biden (35%) leads Sanders (17%) among likely Democratic primary voters who consider electability to be more important while Sanders (29%) is ahead of Biden (18%) among those who think a candidate’s position on the issues is more important.

President Trump’s job approval rating stands at 51% among South Carolina residents. This includes 39% of residents who strongly approve of how Trump is doing his job. 41% of adults statewide disapprove of the president’s performance in office, including 30% who strongly disapprove.

As a result of November’s elections, a majority of registered voters in South Carolina (53%) say they would prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. 35% report they would prefer a Congress with the Democrats at the helm.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is well-positioned in his re-election bid. 54% of registered voters in South Carolina support Graham while 37% back his likely Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. Two percent supports another candidate, and 7% are undecided. Six years ago, Graham won the state by 16 points, 55% to 39%.

Complete February 24, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of South Carolina

 Complete February 24, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of South Carolina (Annotated Questionnaire)

Complete February 24, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of South Carolina (Tables)

 Marist Poll Methodology

 Nature of the Sample

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

February 19, 2020 | by

In the contest for the Democratic nomination nationally, Bernie Sanders (31%) leads his closest competitor Michael Bloomberg (19%) by 12 points among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Joe Biden (15%) and Elizabeth Warren (12%) follow. No other candidate receives double-digit support. When a similar question was reported in December, Biden received 24%, Sanders had 22%, and Warren had 17%. 13% supported Buttigieg, and Bloomberg’s support (4%) was in single digits.

“Sanders has solidified his lead over the Democratic field while Bloomberg’s air wars gives him a solid second place in the Democratic field,” Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Meanwhile, Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire do not extend to the national Democratic electorate at this point, and all of the candidates have faded with the exception of Sanders and Bloomberg.”

Sanders’ base is intact. A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents under the age of 45 years old (54%) and a plurality of those who identify as progressive (46%) support Sanders. However, Bloomberg has resonated among moderates and older Democrats. Bloomberg (29%) edges Biden (23%) among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who self-identify as moderate. Bloomberg (27%) has a similar advantage over Biden (22%) among those age 45 or older.

Warren is the second choice candidate of 23% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents with a candidate preference, bolstered by 45% of Sanders’ supporters who say they would consider Warren as their second choice. Biden and Bloomberg swap support. 28% of Bloomberg’s backers say their second choice is Biden. The same proportion of Biden supporters (28%) say they would opt for Bloomberg.

A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (55%) say it is more important to have a nominee who has the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump in November. 42% say it is more important that the nominee shares their positions on most issues. These results are essentially unchanged from December when 54% said electability was the priority over 44% of the potential Democratic electorate who preferred a candidate that is closer to them on the issues. Supporters of Bloomberg (70%) and Biden (63%) are more likely than those of Sanders (38%) to consider electability to be more important. 60% of Sanders’ supporters prefer a candidate who shares their positions on the issues.

Despite their personal preferences, most Democrats and Democratic leaning independents are united in their desire to oust Trump from office. 76% say, if their candidate does not receive the nomination, they will vote for whomever the Democratic candidate is. Of note, Democrats (80%) are more cohesive in this position than those who identify as independents. 15% of independents report they will vote for someone else, and 12% say they will not cast a ballot for president.

In hypothetical general election tossups, Biden (50%) performs best against Trump (44%) among registered voters nationally. Bloomberg is +4 percentage points over the president while Sanders is up 3 points. Buttigieg and Klobuchar have a slim 2-point edge whereas Warren is +1 against the president.

President Trump’s job approval rating is consistent. 42% of Americans approve of how he is doing his job, including 29% who strongly approve. 51% disapprove, including 40% who are strongly of this view. The president’s approval rating is statistically unchanged from January when 41% of Americans approved of the job he was doing and 53% disapproved.

“Despite positive numbers on his handling of the economy and an improved outlook on the direction of the country, President Trump’s overall job approval rating has not changed,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

The president is viewed positively on his handling of the economy. 51% approve of his economic approach, and 40% disapprove. This is a 12-point shift since last September when 47% of adults nationally approved of how the president was handling the economy, and 48% disapproved.

Many Americans (66%) also perceive the economy to be working well for them personally. This opinion is due, in part, to the overwhelming perception of Republicans (93%) who consider the economy to be benefitting their wallets. 66% of independents agree. 29% of Americans, including a slim majority of Democrats (51%), do not think the economy is working well for them.

Americans are much more likely to have a favorable impression of a capitalist system than a socialist one. 57% of U.S. residents have a positive opinion of capitalism while a similar 58% have an unfavorable view of socialism.

Americans’ opinions about the direction of the nation have improved. 41% of residents think the nation is moving in the right direction. This is up from 35% last October and is the largest proportion of Americans with this view since March of 2012 (43%). 50% of Americans currently think the nation is moving in the wrong direction, down from 57% last time.

When thinking about November’s congressional elections, the Democratic candidate on the ballot (48%) has an 8-point advantage over the Republican (40%) among registered voters nationally. When last reported in November, the Democratic candidate (46%) was +5 points against the Republican (41%).

While a majority of Americans (53%) express a great deal or good amount of trust that elections are fair, this proportion has declined from 62% in January. 43% say they have little or no trust at all that the elections this year will be fair, up from 37% previously.

More than seven in ten Americans (72%), though, express confidence that their state or local government will run a fair and accurate election in 2020. This is a bump up from 68% last month.

Complete February 19, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States

Complete February 19, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables) 

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: Election 2020

February 18, 2020 | by

NBC News/Marist Poll Results of New Hampshire

February 7, 2020 | by

As the clock ticks down to the New Hampshire primary, Bernie Sanders (25%) has a narrow advantage over Pete Buttigieg (21%) among likely Democratic primary voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Both Sanders and Buttigieg have gotten a slight boost post Iowa. In the NBC News/Marist Poll in the state in January, Sanders received 22% to Buttigieg’s 17%. The next two candidates Warren (14%) and Biden (13%) receive about the same support as they did last time.

“It’s a close race which still has more than one in five persuadable voters, a notable proportion,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, Sanders and Buttigieg have picked up the pace. One significant change from January is that Buttigieg’s support has really solidified, although Sanders still commands the most loyal following.”

Sanders (41%) has a commanding lead among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who identify as progressive. Elizabeth Warren, his closest competitor among this group receives 22% followed by Buttigieg with 15%. Among those who identify as moderate, Buttigieg (30%) is +8 points over Biden (22%). Biden (26%) and Butigieig (24%) were in a statistical tie in last month’s survey. Klobuchar currently receives 15% among this group.

Sanders (35%) outpaces his rivals among likely Democratic voters under the age of 45. 18% of these voters support Warren, and 17% are for Buttigieg. Of note, more than four in ten members of Millennials and Gen Z (42%) are for Sanders. Among likely Democratic voters over the age of 45, Buttigieg (24%) is ahead of Sanders (18%) and Biden (16%).

Sanders (28%) has a double-digit lead over his closest competitor, Buttigieg (18%), among men. Buttigieg (24%) and Sanders (22%) are competitive among likely Democratic primary voters who are women.

62% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference, up from 56% previously, strongly support their choice of candidate. Supporters of Sanders (73%) are most enthusiastic.   Buttigieg enjoys a boost. 63% of those in Buttigieg’s camp, up from 44% previously, say they strongly support him. 60% of Biden backers say they will not waiver in their commitment. This is up slightly from 56%. A majority of those who are currently for Warren (56%) are firmly committed to her compared with 53% in January.

Half of likely Democratic primary voters (50%) say it is more important to have a nominee who has the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump in November than to have a nominee who is closest to them on the issues (42%). Not surprisingly, 58% of Democrats likely to vote in the primary say their priority is electability. In contrast, 51% of independents likely to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary believe it is more important to nominate a candidate who aligns with their views on the issues.

Among those who favor electability, Buttigieg (23%) and Biden (20%) are competitive. Sanders has 19% to 13% for Warren and 10% for Klobuchar. Sanders (30%) leads Buttigieg (20%) by 10 points among those who consider positions on the issues to be more important. Warren is the only other candidate who receives support in double digits (15%) among these voters.

On the Republican side, Trump trounces his primary opponents. Among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted, Trump (88%) outpaces Bill Weld (7%) and Joe Walsh (1%).

More than three in four likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference (85%) say they strongly support their choice of candidate.

President Trump’s approval rating in New Hampshire is underwater. 44% of adults approve of his job performance. This includes 31% who strongly approve of how he is doing his job. A majority (51%) disapprove, including 43% who strongly do so. When last reported, 42% of New Hampshire adults approved of how the president was doing in office, and 52% disapproved.

New Hampshire registered voters divide about whether they prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans (45%) or Democrats (44%). Democrats (47%) had an advantage over Republicans (42%) in January.

Complete February 7, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of New Hampshire

Complete February 7, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of New Hampshire (Annotated Questionnaire)

Complete February 7, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of New Hampshire (Tables)

 Marist Poll Methodology

 Nature of the Sample

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

February 5, 2020 | by

About two in three Americans perceive the coronavirus to be a real threat, and a majority express a great deal or good amount of concern about its potential spread in the United States. However, fewer Americans worry about its impact in their local community. More than six in ten Americans think U.S. government officials are doing enough to prevent the spread of the coronavirus in the United States.

66% of U.S. residents consider the coronavirus to be a real threat and not a situation that has been blown out of proportion (27%). Americans age 45 or older (72%) are more likely than younger Americans (57%) to think the coronavirus represents a real danger to people in the U.S.

A majority of Americans (56%) report they are either very concerned or concerned about the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. 43% are not very concerned or not concerned at all. Two in three Americans who are 45 years of age or older (66%) and women (64%) express a notable amount of concern about the contagion. This compares with 40% of younger Americans and 47% of men who worry that the coronavirus will spread here in the United States.

However, Americans are less concerned that the coronavirus will be an issue in their own backyards. A majority of Americans (55%) report they are not very concerned or not concerned at all that the illness will spread in their community. 44% are, at least, somewhat worried. Again, opinions fall along age and gender lines. Americans 45 or older (54%) are nearly twice as likely as those under 45 years old (28%) to be concerned. A majority of women (52%), compared with 35% of men, say they are very concerned or concerned that the coronavirus will spread in their community.

The coronavirus is having little impact on Americans’ travel plans. Only 1% report they have changed their travel plans due to the coronavirus.

Many Americans (61%) are confident that U.S. government officials are doing enough to prevent the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. 26% say they are not doing enough. Regardless of demographic group, at least a majority say they think government officials are taking enough action to protect the American people. Of note, men (67%) are more likely than women (54%) to have this view.

Media reports have had an impact on Americans’ awareness of the coronavirus. 68% report they have heard a great deal (42%) or good amount (27%) about the coronavirus. 32% have heard just a little (28%) or nothing at all (4%) about it.

Complete February 5, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States

Complete February 5, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results

February 4, 2020 | by

2/4: Coronavirus