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NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

June 26, 2020 | by Marist Poll

In the presidential contest, Joe Biden (52%) leads President Donald Trump (44%) by 8 percentage points among registered voters nationally including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. With partisan allegiances holding strong, support among independents divides. Biden receives 47% to 44% for Trump. At the beginning of June, Biden (50%) had a 7-point edge over Trump (43%) among registered voters.

Biden leads Trump by 29 points among white women with a college education and by 12 points among college educated white men. Trump leads Biden by 15 points among white women without a college degree and by 41 points among white men who did not get a college education.

“President Trump’s re-election depends upon a shift either in the policies and tone of his administration or in his finding a way to entice Biden into hand-to-hand combat,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “If Trump’s strong disapproval rating stays put, and Biden remains below the radar, Trump’s prospects are dim.”

Biden’s lead comes as Trump’s disapproval rating reaches a new high. 58% of Americans disapprove of how the president is doing his job, up from 55% in early June, and is the highest of his term in office. 40% of Americans approve of how the president is doing his job comparable to the 41% score he received earlier this month.

The proportion of Americans who say they strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance (49%) is also at its height. In early June, 47% of Americans strongly disapproved of the president’s job performance. At that time, this was his highest disapproval score. 26% of Americans say they strongly approve of the president’s job performance, comparable to 28% previously.

Not surprisingly, Democrats (96%) overwhelmingly disapprove of how the president is performing in office while most Republicans approve (90%). Nearly six in ten independents (59%) give the president a thumbs down on the job he is doing, and 37% approve.

Complete June 26, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States

Complete June 26, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: 2020 Presidential Election and Trump’s Approval Rating

| by Marist Poll

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

June 5, 2020 | by Marist Poll

More than six in ten Americans (62%) say the demonstrations in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death in Minneapolis at the hands of police are legitimate protests and not people acting unlawfully (28%).

A distinct partisan divide exists, but a notable 30% of Republicans say the demonstrations are legitimate. Most Democrats (87%) and nearly two in three independents (65%) also have this opinion. Close to six in ten Republicans (59%) believe these public actions are mostly unlawful.

While African Americans (77%) are more likely than white Americans to consider the demonstrations to be lawful protests, a majority of white Americans (58%) also share this opinion. Latinos (70%), residents under the age of 45 (70%), and a majority of older Americans (55%) agree.

“By more than two–to–one Americans side with the demonstrators,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “White House efforts to undercut the legitimacy of the protests have come up short.”

It follows, then, that many Americans (61%) are more likely to describe the demonstrations as “protests” as opposed to “riots” (31%). Among Democrats, 85% characterize the demonstrations as “protests.” 65% of independents and a noteworthy 31% of Republicans agree. Nearly six in ten Republicans (59%) describe the demonstrations as “riots.” 79% of African Americans choose to use the term “protests,” not “riots,” to describe the demonstrations. 68% of Latinos and 56% of whites share this opinion. Though younger Americans (70%) are more likely than those age 45 or older to call these public actions “protests,” a majority of older Americans (53%) also agree.

President Trump’s response to the demonstrations draws criticism from more than two-thirds of Americans. 67% of residents nationally say the president has mostly increased tensions. 18% think his reaction has mostly decreased tensions, and 15% are unsure. Although a plurality of Republicans (41%) think the president has eased tensions, 29% say he has made them worse, and a notable 30% are unsure about whether or not the president’s reaction has mitigated or exacerbated tensions. Most Democrats (92%) and more than seven in ten independents (73%) believe Trump has intensified tensions following Floyd’s death.

While President Trump’s job approval rating (41%) is comparable to the 43% score he received in March, his disapproval score has increased five points to 55% from 50%. The last time Trump received a 55% disapproval rating was February 2019. His all-time high was 56% which he received in December of 2017.

The intensity of Americans’ disapproval of how President Trump is doing his job has grown. 47% of Americans who disapprove say they strongly do so. This is up from 41% in March and is the highest “strongly disapprove” rating of the president’s term. 28% report they strongly approve, notched down from 32%.

A noticeable change has occurred among independents. 43% of independents say they strongly disapprove of the president’s job performance, an increase from 33% three months ago. The proportion of independents who say they strongly approve stands at 20%, little changed from 22% in March. Among Democrats, a similar shift has occurred. 88% of Democrats, up from 77%, now say they strongly disapprove of the president’s job performance. 71% of Republicans, down slightly from 76%, say they strongly approve of how the president is doing in office.

The president’s low job approval rating factors into his standing against Joe Biden. In a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden, Biden has a 7-point advantage against the president. 50% of registered voters support Biden, and Trump garners 43%. In February, Biden (50%) had a 6-point lead against Trump (44%).

“Most Americans have already picked sides,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “As long as the contest remains largely a referendum on the president, he will continue to trail Biden nationally.”

Americans think Biden (52%) would better handle race relations as president than Trump (34%). This includes 92% of Democrats, a plurality of independents (48%), and about one in ten Republicans (11%). With the exception of Republicans, white Americans without a college degree, white Evangelical Christians, and Americans living in rural regions, Americans are more likely to think Biden is more capable of handling race relations than Trump.

When looking at Americans’ perceptions of their local police officers, confidence has declined since 2014. 35% of residents have a great deal of confidence in law enforcement officials to treat white people and black people equally. 28% have a fair amount of trust in them to not favor one race over the other while 17% have just some confidence in them to do so. 18% have very little trust in law enforcement to disregard a person’s race. When The Marist Poll last reported this question at the end of 2014, 41% of Americans had a great deal of confidence in police officers to treat people equally regardless of race. 30% had a fair amount of trust in them to do so, and 11% had just some. 16% had very little confidence in law enforcement to act equitably without taking a person’s race into account.

While a plurality of white Americans (42%) have a great deal of confidence in police to treat everyone equally, nearly half of African Americans (48%) have very little confidence in police officers to do so.

A majority of Americans do not think police are responding appropriately to the demonstrations occurring in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death. This includes 35% who say the police are being too aggressive, and 18% who say they are not being aggressive enough. 38% think the police are responding appropriately to the demonstrations. 10% are unsure.

Half of African Americans (50%) think the police are responding too aggressively, though 32% think the police have been reacting appropriately. Among white Americans, a plurality (41%) think the response has been appropriate, 31% say it has been too aggressive, and 20% think the police have not been aggressive enough.

Complete June 5, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States

Complete June 5, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: Race Relations in the United States

| by Marist Poll

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

May 20, 2020 | by Marist Poll

As states across the nation begin to reopen, more than three in four Americans (77%) express some degree of concern that a second wave of coronavirus cases will emerge. 23%, though, report they have little or no concern another surge of cases will occur.

Democrats (93%) and women (83%) are more likely than Republicans (57%) and men (70%) to be concerned about a second coronavirus wave. Among independents, 76% are worried that a large number of new coronavirus cases will emerge in the future.

“No sooner are Americans digging out from the country’s initial bout with COVID-19 than concern about a resurgence weighs heavily on their mind,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “As steps are being taken to reopen the economy, people are far from confident that the U.S. is out of the woods.”

As shelter-in-place and stay-at-home orders begin to be lifted and states reopen, nearly two in three Americans say it will take time before their lives will return to a sense of normal. 65% of residents report their daily routine will not reflect any kind of normal before, at least, six months. Included here are 25% who say they expect their life to get back to a new normal in about six months, 22% who say their expectation is in about a year, and 18% who say it will take longer than that. In contrast, 32% of residents report normal life will resume for them in the next month (11%) or within the next two to three months (21%).

Again, a deep partisan divide exists. Republicans (42%) are more than twice as likely as Democrats (20%) to report it will take, at most, two to three months for life to return to a sense of normal. In fact, 20% of Republicans say they expect their routine to return to normal in the next month. This compares with only 1% of Democrats who cite this timeframe. 78% of Democrats and 68% of independents say it will take about six months or longer to achieve a sense of what life was like prior to the pandemic. 55% of Republicans agree.

When thinking about November’s elections, 50% of Americans say, if their state permits voting by mail-in ballot due to the coronavirus, they will cast their vote that way. 38% say they will go to the polls in-person, and 10% report they will not vote. Majorities of Democrats (61%) and independents (53%) prefer to mail in their ballot. Although a majority of Republicans (56%) would rather vote in person, a notable 42% say they will vote by mail.

“Divergent views are most apparent when looking at the opinions of two critical groups in the 2020 presidential campaign,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “White men without a college education, the Republican base, are least likely to vote by mail, and white women with a college education, the Democratic base, are most likely to mail in their vote.”

Complete May 20, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States

Complete May 20, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: Coronavirus May 2020

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4/29: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

April 29, 2020 | by Marist Poll

Americans perceive the coronavirus pandemic to be a crisis that is being better handled by their state’s governor (64%) than by President Donald Trump (32%). Expectedly, a wide partisan divide exists, but even one in four Republicans (25%) think their governor is more adept at handling the crisis. 86% of Democrats and 70% of independents say their governor has a better approach than Trump. Among Republicans, 73% say Trump is more effective at dealing with the crisis.

Among most demographic groups, at least a majority of Americans thinks their governor is addressing the coronavirus pandemic better than the president. There is one exception. White men without a college education divide. 50% of these residents believe their governor is more capable at handling the pandemic while 49% say the president is exhibiting better leadership during the crisis. Also of note, non-white residents (71%), women (70%), and white Americans with a college degree (66%) are more likely than white residents (61%), men (58%), and white residents without a college degree (56%) to assert their state’s governor is more effectively handling the pandemic than the president.

“The stakes couldn’t be higher,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “For the nation, it all boils down to timing. Americans are reacting to when COVID-19 appeared on the national agenda, when they think the country should reopen, and what the economy and COVID-19 will be like come November.”

A majority of Americans (55%) disapprove of how President Trump is handling COVID-19. This is up from 49% in the Mid-March NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. 44%, identical to 44% previously, approve of the president’s approach.

Most Democrats (87%) consider the president to be falling short in his handling of the crisis while most Republicans (89%) think his approach hits the mark. Among independents, 58% disapprove, and 40% approve.

Americans divide about President Trump’s handling of the economy. 50% of Americans approve of his performance on the economy, and 48% disapprove. In March, 51% of residents approved of the president’s approach, and 45% disapproved. Independents are more positive about the president’s handling of the economy (+5 points) than they are about his leadership during the COVID-19 crisis (-18 points).

To compound matters for the president, 54% of Americans think their state’s governor is doing a better job handling the economy than the president (39%). A wide partisan divide exists. 78% of Democrats and 59% of independents think their governor has the better approach. In contrast, 84% of Republicans think the president is more capable of dealing with the economy.

Women are twice as likely to say their governor (62%) is doing a better job handling the economy than Trump (31%). Men, especially white men with a college degree, divide. 47% of men think Trump is performing better on the economy while 45% say their governor is outperforming the president.

There has been a sharp increase in the proportion of working Americans who are experiencing employment insecurity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. 50% of Americans excluding those not employed or retired, up from 18% in March, report they or someone in their household have been let go or have had their hours reduced because of the pandemic. Although Americans from all walks of life have been impacted by the crisis, those more likely to have experienced the economic repercussions are non-white, younger, lower income, or without a college degree.

Most Americans oppose lifting social distancing restrictions, especially in larger, group settings. 91% of Americans think it is a bad idea to allow people to attend sporting events without further testing. 85% do not think it is wise for schools to reopen, and 80% think it is a bad idea for restaurants to allow customers to dine in. 65% of residents consider it a bad idea for people to go back to work without further testing. There is broad consensus across party lines on maintaining restrictions except on the issue of returning to work. 84% of Democrats and 65% of independents want to continue stay at home policies while 51% of Republicans think it would be a good idea to get back to business.

Turning to this fall’s presidential election, 34% of Americans report the coronavirus will be either a major (14%) or minor factor (20%) in deciding their vote. 64% of Americans report they have already made up their mind about who they plan to support. 68% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans, and 56% of independents say they have already selected a candidate. Democrats (16%) and independents (15%) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (7%) to say the pandemic will be a major factor when casting their ballot.

55% of Americans say they would prefer Joe Biden to be handling the COVID-19 crisis than President Trump. 40% would rather Trump be managing the situation. Again, opinions fall along partisan lines. A majority of independents (55%) would prefer that Biden be handling the crisis.

Biden (51%) also outperforms Trump (44%) on who Americans would rather have handling the economy. Independents divide. 47% think Biden is the better option while 45% say Trump is preferential to deal with the economy.

“On these two critical issues, handling the economy and dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, men and women view Donald Trump and Joe Biden through very different lenses,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The gender gap on who can better handle the economy is 40 points, and it is 30 points on who can better deal with the COVID-19 crisis.”

Complete April 29, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States

Complete April 29, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: Coronovirus April 2020

| by Marist Poll

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

March 17, 2020 | by Marist Poll

Seven in ten U.S. residents (70%) now report they are very concerned or concerned about the spread of coronavirus in their communities. This is a marked increase from 44% of U.S. residents who had this view in the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll released in early February.

The proportion of Republicans (58%) with a heightened level of concern is up from 41% previously. Larger proportions of Democrats (84% from 52%) and independents (68% from 37%) now report a high level of anxiety about the spread of the contagion in their communities.

Despite this heightened level of concern, fewer Americans perceive the coronavirus to be a real threat, and more say the coronavirus is being blown out of proportion. 56% of Americans, down from 66% previously, say the virus is a real threat. 38% of residents, up from 27%, say the coronavirus is being exaggerated. The change has mostly occurred among Republicans. While 72% of the GOP considered the coronavirus to be a real threat in early February, only 40% now have this view. A majority of Republicans (54%) currently have the view that the situation is being blown out of proportion. This is up from 23% previously. Among independents, 50% think the coronavirus is a real threat, down from 64%. Among Democrats, 76% consider the danger to be real, up from 70%.

“Since the pandemic has taken root and grown in the United States, Democrats and Republicans are now poles apart,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The consequences of these differing perspectives are shaping how people are responding to calls for action.”

Americans do not trust the information they receive from the president about the pandemic. 60% say they have not very much or no trust at all in the communication they receive from Trump. 37% have a great deal or good amount of trust in the president’s messaging. Most Democrats (91%) and more than six in ten independents (62%) lack confidence in the information the president shares about the crisis. Even 21% of Republicans agree. 74% of Republicans report they have, at least, a good amount of trust in the information the president provides about coronavirus.

Many Americans perceive a lack of leadership. Nearly half of Americans (49%) disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% approve. Not surprisingly, a wide partisan divide exists.

Despite Americans’ concern about coronavirus and the president’s approach to the pandemic, Trump’s job approval rating remains steady. 43% approve of how he is doing his job overall, including 32% who strongly do so. 50% disapprove, including 41% who are strongly of this view. In February, 42% approved of the president’s job performance, and 51% disapproved.

The coronavirus pandemic is a public health issue with the potential for a profound impact on the U.S. economy, and 51% of Americans tell the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll they approve of how President Trump is handling the economy. This is identical to the proportion (51%) who held this view in February. 45%, up from 40%, disapprove of his economic approach. Four percent, down from 9% in February, are unsure.

Americans divide over whether or not the federal government is doing enough to prevent the spread of coronavirus. 46% say the federal government is taking appropriate action while 44% think it is not doing enough. Faith in the U.S. government to deal with this situation has plummeted. When the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll reported a similar question in early February, 61% of Americans thought U.S. government officials were doing enough to contain the virus, and 26% said they were falling short in their response to the contagion.

The proportion of Democrats who report the federal government has not taken adequate measures has doubled (70% from 35%). Independents, who just last month thought Washington was doing enough (69% to 15%), now divide. 47% say the federal government is doing enough in its response, and 47% think it is not. Most Republicans (77%) say the federal government is doing enough, a slight uptick from 72% in the previous poll.

Americans do have faith, though, in their state governments to handle the coronavirus outbreak. Nearly two in three Americans (65%) say their state government is doing enough to prevent the spread of coronavirus. 23% think state officials should be doing more. Looking at party, 78% of Republicans, 70% of independents, and even a majority of Democrats (53%) say the reaction on the state level is adequate. Of note, more than three in ten Democrats (31%) say state officials need to take additional action.

In contrast to Americans’ doubts about the information coming from the White House, most people (72%) have a great deal or good amount of trust in the information they receive from their state and local governments. Bipartisan consensus exists on this question. The most trusted group, however, for information about coronavirus are public health officials (84%). At least eight in ten Americans, across party lines, report they have a great deal or good amount of trust in the information they receive from these experts.

Americans divide about the level of trust they have in the information distributed by the news media. 50% trust media sources, and 47% have little or no trust in them. Nearly two in three Democrats (64%) have, at least, a good amount of trust in the media, whereas six in ten Republicans (60%) do not. Independents divide, 49% to 47%, respectively.

How has coronavirus impacted daily life for Americans?

48% of Americans say they have cancelled plans to avoid crowds. 59% of Democrats have made it a point to avoid large gatherings while 60% of Republicans and 54% of independents have not.

46% have decided to eat at home more often. Differences divide along party lines. 60% of Democrats say they are eating in more often while 63% of Republicans say they have not changed their eating habits. 60% of independents also have not decided to dine at home more frequently.

42% of Americans have stockpiled food and supplies. More than six in ten Republicans (61%) and independents (64%) have not collected provisions to hold them over during the crisis. Democrats divide. 51% say they have not purchased extra food and supplies while 49% have.

30% of Americans have changed their travel plans because of the pandemic. Democrats (38%) are more likely than Republicans (26%) and independents (26%) to say they have made adjustments to their travel itineraries.

Two percent of Americans say they have tried to be tested for coronavirus and have been unable to receive a test.

Among working Americans, one in three (33%) have altered their daily work routines due to coronavirus. At least a majority of Democrats (59%), Republicans (77%), and independents (63%) say they have not adjusted their workday because of the coronavirus. Yet, Democrats (41%) are significantly more likely than Republicans (23%) to say they have done so.

A notable 18% of employed Americans say they have been let go or have had their work hours reduced because of coronavirus.