In the Democratic primary contest in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders (22%) edges his closest competitor Pete Buttigieg (17%) by five points among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Joe Biden closely follows with 15%. Elizabeth Warren receives 13%, and Amy Klobuchar garners the support of 10%. No other candidate in the Democratic field receives double-digit support. 25% of likely Democratic primary voters are persuadable, that is they are either undecided or might change their mind in the closing weeks before the first-in-the-nation primary.
“Sanders’ advantage is bolstered by his strong support among progressive Democrats and younger voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “His supporters are also far more enthusiastic about his candidacy than backers of his closest rivals.”
Among likely Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as progressive, Sanders (36%) outpaces his closest competitor Warren (20%). Among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire who identify as moderate, Biden (26%) and Buttigieg (24%) are favored. Klobuchar receives 15% with Sanders (9%) and Warren (8%) lagging behind.
Sanders is the preferred candidate among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire who are under the age of 45 (39%), especially among Millennials and those in Gen Z (41%). Buttigieg (17%) and Warren (14%) are the only other candidates who achieves double-digit support among these younger voters. Sanders (26%) is also favored among likely Democratic primary voters who are men. Biden and Buttigieg receive 15% apiece among this group, and Warren has the support of 10%. Among women likely to vote in the Democratic primary, Sanders and Buttigieg receive an identical 19%. 15% support Biden, and 15% are for Warren.
Only 56% of likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate. But, Sanders’ supporters outpace his competitors’ backers when it comes to enthusiasm for their candidate. 76% of Sanders’ voters strongly support him. 56% of Biden’s backers, 53% of Warren’s supporters, and 44% of Buttigieg’s voters strongly back their candidate.
49% of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters report it is more important that the Democratic nominee be the candidate who has the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump in November. Among those who value electability, Biden receives 23% followed by Buttigieg (21%), Klobuchar (14%), Warren (13%), and Sanders (11%). 42% say it is more important that the candidate come closest to their positions on the issues. Sanders (33%) outpaces his rivals Buttigieg (15%), Warren (13%), Gabbard (11%), Biden (6%), and Klobuchar (5%) among these voters.
On the Republican side, President Trump handily leads the Republican candidates posing a primary challenge to him. Among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who already have voted, 87% support Trump. Bill Weld receives 8%, and Joe Walsh has 2%.
Among likely Republican voters with a candidate preference, more than eight in ten (82%) say they strongly support their choice of candidate in the Republican primary contest.
The top-tier Democratic candidates all lead President Trump in hypothetical general election matchups in New Hampshire. Buttigieg performs best against the incumbent president. He leads Trump by 10 points among New Hampshire registered voters. Both Biden and Sanders are +8 points against the president. Warren, the only Democratic top-tier candidate who fails to break 50%, has a slight 4-point edge over Trump.
“President Trump is pretty much getting only his approval rating in head-to-head matchups against the top-tier Democrats,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.
President Trump’s job approval rating in New Hampshire is upside down. 42% of residents approve of the job the president is doing in office, including 29% who strongly have this opinion. 52%, including 43% who say they strongly do so, disapprove of how Trump is doing his job.
A plurality of New Hampshire registered voters (47%) say they would prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats rather than one controlled by Republicans (42%) following November’s elections. Partisan allegiances are solid. Among independent voters, a plurality (45%) prefer a Congress with Democrats at the helm. 37%, though, say they want the Republicans in control. A notable 18% of independents are unsure.