9/26: Clinton Outdistances Trump in New York Before “Reality TV Debate”

There are just hours to go until the first presidential debate which New Yorkers expect to be more like reality television than an informative discussion.  In the contest, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, 57%, lead their Republican rivals Donald Trump and Mike Pence, 33%, by 24 points among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Seven percent do not support either candidate, 1% are for someone else, and 2% are undecided.

“Clinton and Trump face off tonight in New York, but the Empire State is far from a battleground state for these two New Yorkers,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Clinton does well among the same voters she carries elsewhere.  But, what makes New York different is the Democratic registration advantage and her ability to best Trump among white voters and men in the state.”

Looking at party, Clinton receives the support of most of her Democratic base, 92%.  While 83% of Republican likely voters back Trump, one in ten members of New York’s GOP, 10%, are for Clinton.  Among independents, Clinton garners the support of a plurality of voters, 42% to 37% for Trump.  A notable 14% do not support either Clinton or Trump.

In this unprecedented campaign where both Clinton and Trump hail from New York, it is Clinton who is the hometown favorite among most demographic groups.  Clinton, 89%, overwhelmingly leads Trump, 5%, among likely voters who are African American.  Among Latino voters, Clinton, 65%, is ahead of Trump, 30%, by more than two to one.  Among white voters, Clinton, 49%, is ahead of Trump, 41%, by 8 points.

Clinton also draws strength from likely voters who are women.  Among this group, Clinton, 65%, has more than double the support of Trump, 26%.  She also has the backing of a plurality of men, 48% for Clinton to 41% for Trump.  However, Trump, 48%, is ahead of Clinton, 40%, among white men who are likely to cast a ballot.  Education level also comes into play.  Clinton, 55%, leads Trump, 33%, by 22 points among white likely voters with a college degree.  However, Trump, 50%, has a 10 point lead over Clinton, 40%, among whites without a college education.

Regionally, Clinton’s support is bolstered by likely voters who live in New York City.  Here, Clinton outpaces Trump, 74% to 20%.  Clinton, 49%, also has a double-digit lead over Trump, 37%, among those who live Upstate.  In the suburbs of New York City, Trump, 47%, and Clinton, 46%, are competitive.

69% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  More Clinton supporters, 71%, compared with Trump’s backers, 64%, report they are firmly committed to their selection for president.

Likely voters in New York State overwhelmingly have a negative opinion of Trump, 68%.  Not quite three in ten likely voters, 28%, have a favorable opinion of him.  When it comes to Clinton’s likeability, voters divide.  49% of the likely electorate have a favorable impression of Clinton while 47% have an unfavorable one.

Looking at the multi-candidate field, Clinton receives the support of 52% of likely voters statewide to 31% for Trump.  Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson garners 7% while Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 5%.  Two percent report they plan to support someone else, and 3% are undecided.  Of note, Johnson has the backing of 15% of independents who are likely to vote.

The First Presidential Debate

With the minutes ticking down to tonight’s presidential debate, 37% of registered voters in New York State expect a debate where Clinton and Trump make nasty comments about each other.  27% think the debate will be a forum where important issues are discussed, and 21% say the two candidates will just repeat lines from their campaign speeches.  Six percent believe a major gaffe or mistake will occur, and 9% are unsure.

“Many New Yorkers plan to watch the debate, and expectations are high for Hillary Clinton from these ‘blue state’ voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “They think she will demonstrate better command of the issues, answer questions more directly, and think Trump will make a major mistake.  They think he is just as likely as Clinton, however, to have the knockout line of the evening.”

Who Will Win?

Who do registered voters think will be the winner of the debate?  A majority of registered voters, 56%, think Clinton will emerge victorious.  The opinion that Clinton will win the debate spans most demographic groups with a few notable exceptions.  73% of Trump’s supporters, 66% of Republicans, and 54% of those who identify as conservative or very conservative believe Trump will defeat Clinton in the debate.  Still, 13% of Trump’s backers, 23% of Republicans, and 32% of those who say they are conservative or very conservative think Clinton will be victorious.  Clinton, 46%, edges Trump, 39%, on the question of who will win the debate among white voters without a college education.  White male voters divide.  45% claim Clinton will prevail as the winner of the debate, and 42% say Trump will score the most points.

Knows the Issues

A similar pattern holds true on the question of whether Clinton or Trump will know about the issues.  72% of registered voters report Clinton will know about the issues.  Republicans divide on this question.  47% of the New York GOP say Trump will have a firm grasp of the issues driving the campaign while 44% of Republicans assert Clinton will have the upper hand.  Even 34% of Trump’s supporters and 48% of voters who are conservative or very conservative believe Clinton will outperform Trump on the issues.

Is More Straightforward

55% of registered voters contend Clinton will be more likely than Trump to answer the questions directly.  Again, notable proportions of men, 47%, voters who identify as conservative or very conservative, 32%, Republicans, 21%, and Trump’s supporters, 11%, think Clinton has the advantage in this area.  48% of white voters without a college education think Clinton will address the questions head on compared with 45% who have this view of Trump.

Will Inspire Voters

On the question of which candidate is more likely to inspire voters, a plurality, 47%, say Clinton is more likely to do so compared with 29% who say Trump will hearten them.  One in five voters, 20%, do not think either candidate will inspire them.  Four percent are unsure.  Interestingly, more than one in ten Clinton supporters, 13%, and nearly one in five Trump backers, 17%, do not think their respective candidate of choice will rally voters.  While 76% of Democrats think Clinton will inspire voters, 67% of Republicans say Trump will do so.  13% of Democrats and 17% of the GOP report neither will invigorate voters.  Looking at gender, while 56% of women say Clinton will inspire voters during the debate, only 35% of men say Trump will do the same.  38% of male voters say Clinton is more likely to rally voters, and 23% report neither will do so.

Will Have the Knockout Comment

Voters divide about whether Clinton, 43%, or Trump, 45%, will deliver a knockout answer or comment.  Here, notable proportions of groups considered to be Clinton’s staunchest backers — 46% of white voters with a college degree, 40% of women, 24% of Clinton’s supporters, 27% of African Americans, 26% of Democrats, and 25% of those who identify as liberal or very liberal — concede that Trump will have a knockout response.

Will Make a Mistake

Trump is perceived by 72% of the New York electorate to be the candidate who will make a major mistake in the debate.  In fact, Trump’s supporters divide on the question.  45% say Trump will err in the matchup compared with 42% of those who say Clinton will make a mistake.  Majorities of Republicans, 51%, and those who identify as conservative or very conservative, 54%, believe Trump, not Clinton, will make an error in tonight’s debate.

Tuning into Reality TV

New York voters are likely to tune into tonight’s debate.  86% of registered voters statewide, including 44% who say they will watch all of it, say they will view, at least, some of the encounter between Clinton and Trump.  When it comes to the nature of the debate, 63% of registered voters think it will be more like a reality television show than an informative discussion, 31%.

Minds Made Up?

Despite interest in the debate, more than two-thirds of registered voters, 67%, say the debate will have little effect on their vote, 19%, or will not influence their vote at all, 48%.  33% report the debate will help them decide their vote a great deal, 7%, a good amount, 8%, or to some extent, 18%.  A majority of Clinton’s supporters, 51%, compared with 42% of Trump’s supporters, say the debate will have no effect on their vote.

U.S. Senate: Schumer vs. Long

Turning to the U.S. Senate race in New York, incumbent Democratic Senator Charles Schumer, 70%, leads his Republican challenger Wendy Long, 24%, by 46 points among likely voters in New York State including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Less than 1% are for another candidate, and 6% are undecided.  A majority of likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate, 54%, report they strongly support their choice of candidate.

Approval Ratings

Schumer’s job performance continues to be well-received by registered voters in New York.  53% of the statewide electorate thinks Schumer is doing either an excellent, 17%, or good, 36%, job in office.  This is similar to the 54% approval rating Schumer received when this question was last reported in May 2015.

Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand receives a job approval rating of 43% among registered voters statewide.  This includes 11% who think Gillibrand is doing an excellent job in office and 32% who say she is doing a good one.  Previously, Gillibrand’s approval rating stood at 45%.  35% of the electorate currently report Gillibrand is doing a fair, 26%, or poor, 9%, job, and 21% have either never heard of Gillibrand or are unsure how to rate her performance in the U.S. Senate.

40% of registered voters consider the job performance of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to be excellent, 8%, or good, 32%.  Cuomo’s approval rating is almost identical to the score he received in April, 41%.  A majority of voters, 55%, currently say Cuomo is doing either a fair, 38%, or poor, 17%, job in office.

53% of registered voters statewide rate President Barack Obama’s job performance as either excellent, 23%, or good, 30%.  This is similar to the 52% score the president received in April.  46% currently have either a fair, 18%, or poor, 28%, impression of how Mr. Obama is doing his job.  When asked whether voters approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing, 57% say they approve.  36% disapprove.  Among New York residents overall, 60% report they approve of how the president is performing in his post.

Direction of the State

When thinking about the direction of New York State, a majority of voters, 51%, think the state is moving in the wrong direction while 42% believe it is going in the right one.  In April, 43% of registered voters asserted the state was on track while 48% said it was off course.

Complete September 26, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of New York

Complete September 26, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Likely Voters)

Complete September 26, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for New York

Nature of the Sample for New York

9/23: Clinton Leads Trump by 7 Points Nationally

With just days until the first presidential debate, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine lead Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence by 7 points among likely voters nationally including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Eight percent of likely voters say they do not support either Clinton or Trump, and 1% report they are for someone else.  Two percent are undecided.

“Hillary Clinton has established a lead, but Donald Trump’s supporters are more committed to him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Digging deeper, African Americans, Latinos, and women are rallying around Clinton’s candidacy.  She also has the backing of young people, but the big question for her campaign is, ‘Will voters under 30 turn out?’”

Clinton and Trump overwhelmingly carry their respective party’s base.  However, more Democrats, 94%, support Clinton than Republicans, 87%, back Trump.  Clinton, 40%, and Trump, 38%, receive similar support among independents who are likely to vote.  A notable 18% of independents say they will not support either Clinton or Trump.

Clinton’s support is bolstered by African Americans and Latinos who are likely to vote.  Most African Americans, 93%, are for Clinton while only 3% of African American voters support Trump.  Among Latino voters, Clinton, 74%, outdistances Trump, 16%, by more than four to one.  Trump’s support is substantiated by likely voters who are white, 53%, especially those without a college degree, 60%.  Among white voters with a college education, Clinton, 45%, and Trump, 44%, are competitive.  A gender gap exists.  58% of likely voters who are women support Clinton compared with 34% who back Trump.  50% of men are for Trump while only 37% support Clinton.

Looking at intensity of support, 65% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice for president, and an additional 27% report they somewhat support their selection.  Trump’s backers, 69%, are slightly more likely than Clinton’s supporters, 62%, to say they will not waver in their commitment to their choice.

However, Trump’s supporters are divided about why they are choosing to back him.  48% of those who plan to vote for Trump say they will do so because they are for him.  A similar 47% say they are motivated to vote for Trump because they are against Clinton.  In comparison, a majority of likely voters who back Clinton, 53%, say they plan to cast their ballot because they are for her.  43% assert they support Clinton because they are against Trump.

Clinton and Trump experience upside down favorable scores among likely voters nationally.  Clinton’s net negative is 17 points.  57% have an unfavorable view of Clinton while 40% have a favorable opinion of her.  Trump experiences a net negative of 24 points.  61% of residents have an unfavorable impression of Trump while 37% have a favorable one.

Looking at the multi-field contest for President of the United States, Clinton, 45%, leads Trump, 39%, by 6 points among likely voters nationally including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has the support of 10% while Green Party candidate Jill Stein garners 4%.  Of note, Johnson receives the backing of 20% of independents who are likely to vote.

79% of likely voters nationally think it makes a big difference whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump is elected president.  14% say it makes some difference, and 6% believe it makes no difference at all.  Similar proportions of Clinton’s supporters, 83%, and Trump’s backers, 81%, believe the stakes of this election are high.

Jobs and the economy is the leading issue for voters.  34% of likely voters say it is the key factor in deciding their vote.  Terrorism, health care, and education follow, each with 12%.  Nine percent cite foreign policy, an additional 9% mention immigration, and 5% report taxes.  Two percent of likely voters say another issue is most important in deciding their vote for president, and 4% are unsure.

Jobs and the economy tops the list for both Clinton’s backers, 34%, and Trump’s supporters, 37%.  However, education, 18%, and health care, 16%, place second and third, respectively, among likely voters for Clinton.  Among likely voters for Trump, terrorism, 22%, is the second most mentioned issue.  Immigration distantly follows with 12% of Trump’s supporters saying it is the issue about which they are most concerned.

“Jobs and the economy is the number one issue.  Where have we heard that one before?” asks Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, for Clinton’s supporters other domestic issues rate high such as education and health care.  For Trump’s backers, terrorism and immigration are top of mind.”

When it comes to the candidate likely voters trust more to handle the issues facing America, Clinton outpaces Trump.  She scores highest on immigration with 54% of likely voters saying they have more confidence in her ability compared with 41% who think Trump will better deal with the issue.  Fewer voters believe in Clinton on the economy.  Still, more voters trust her to make headway in this area than have faith in Trump.  49% of likely voters nationally trust Clinton to better handle jobs and the economy compared with 43% who have this view of Trump.

 

Clinton is perceived by likely voters as the candidate with the experience to be president, 57%.  Voters are also more likely to describe Clinton, rather than Trump, as the candidate with the temperament to be president, 50%.  Trump, though, is viewed as the candidate with the stamina to be president, 53%.  On the question of which candidate is honest and trustworthy, Trump, 44%, outperforms Clinton, 36%.  Of note, 18% of the likely electorate say neither candidate can be described in this manner.  The likely electorate divides about which candidate is more likely to care about the average person or to share their values.

Turning to the generic ballot for Congress, 49% of likely voters nationally say they would support the Democratic candidate in their district while 45% would back the Republican.  Two percent would not support either of the main party candidates, and 3% are undecided.

President Barack Obama enjoys a 52% approval rating among registered voters nationally.  This is similar to the 53% he garnered in August.  43% currently disapprove of the job the president is doing in office, and 5% are unsure.  Among likely voters nationally, the president’s job approval rating stands at a similar 51%.

While Americans may be upbeat about President Obama’s job performance, they remain pessimistic about the direction of the nation.  59% of residents report the nation is moving in the wrong direction while 34% say it is traveling in the right one.  These proportions are identical to those in the August McClatchy-Marist Poll.  Among likely voters nationally, 59% currently believe the nation is off course while 35% report it is on track.

Complete September 23, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll Release of the United States

Complete September 23, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Likely Voters)

Complete September 23, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

9/11: Trump and Clinton in Close Contests in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire

With a combined 37 electoral votes hanging in the balance in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine and Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence are highly competitive among likely voters in each state including voters who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  This is in contrast with 2012 when Republican nominee Mitt Romney secured both Arizona’s and Georgia’s electoral votes, and President Barack Obama carried Nevada and New Hampshire in both of his victories for the White House.  In 2012, each candidate carried their respective states by wider margins than Clinton and Trump are currently able to achieve.

“As we enter the final lap of this very unconventional election, it would not be surprising if the electoral map, in the end, has new contours,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Any of these four states could awaken a fault line in what is looking more and more like a shake-up election with more states being up for grabs.”

In Arizona, Trump receives 42% to 41% for Clinton among likely voters statewide.  More than six in ten likely voters with a candidate preference, 63%, say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Among Arizona likely voters who support Trump, 65% report they are firmly committed to him.  62% of Clinton’s backers report a similar level of support for her.

Looking at the multi-candidate contest in Arizona including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 40% of the likely electorate support Trump compared with 38% for Clinton.  12% support Johnson, and 3% are for Stein.

In Georgia, 46% of likely voters back Trump while Clinton receives the support of 43%.  66% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Looking at intensity of support among the candidates’ backers, 66% of Trump’s supporters say they will not waver in their commitment to him.  67% of Clinton’s supporters express the same intensity of support toward her.

How do Trump and Clinton fare in a larger field of candidates in Georgia?  44% of likely voters statewide are for Trump while 42% are for Clinton.  Johnson receives the support of 10%.  Voters have the opportunity to write in Stein’s name although she is not currently on the ballot in Georgia.

Nevada is also a tossup.  Only one point separates the two contenders.  When matched only against each other, Clinton is at 45%, and Trump garners 44% among likely voters statewide.  70% of likely voters with a candidate preference report they strongly support their choice.  71% of likely voters who are behind Trump and 70% of those for Clinton are firmly committed to their candidate selection.  In a four-way contest, 42% of likely voters are for Trump while 41% are for Clinton.  Eight percent support Johnson, and 3% back Stein.

In New Hampshire, Clinton, 42%, is closely matched with Trump, 41%, among likely voters statewide.  65% of likely voters with a candidate preference assert they are strongly behind their choice.  Here, 68% of likely voters who support Clinton, compared with 62% of Trump’s backers, say they will not change their minds before Election Day.

When Johnson and Stein are included in the mix, Clinton garners 39% of the New Hampshire likely electorate to 37% for Trump.  15% of likely voters in New Hampshire are for Johnson while 3% are for Stein.

In both two-way and multi-candidate matchups, likely voters move the presidential contest more Republican except in New Hampshire.  This is primarily due to the increase in the proportion of white voters within the likely electorates of Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.  This is accompanied by the decline of Latino voters in the likely electorates of Arizona and Nevada and minority voters, overall, in Georgia.

Both Clinton and Trump have strong support from their respective party’s base in each of these four states.  Among independents who are likely to vote, Clinton and Trump are competitive.  Of note, more than one in ten independents in each of these states reports they do not support either candidate.  In fact, in New Hampshire, 19%, Georgia, 17%, and Arizona, 17%, nearly one in five independents reports they plan not to support either of the two major party candidates.  11% of independents in Nevada share this view.

In patterns that have been seen in other states, a voter’s gender or education makes a difference.  Clinton leads Trump among women while Trump is ahead of Clinton among men.  Trump outperforms Clinton among white voters without a college degree.  At least a majority of these voters support Trump in all four states.  Clinton performs better among white voters with a college degree.  She leads Trump among this group in New Hampshire.  Clinton and Trump are competitive among these voters in Nevada and Arizona.  However, Clinton trails Trump by a wide margin even among white voters with a college education in Georgia.

Clinton and Trump are disliked by the electorates in each of these state.  Their favorable scores are upside down. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire, a strong majority of likely voters say they have a negative impression of Clinton or a negative opinion of Trump.

“In fact, the electorate is so turned off by these candidates that about one in five likely voters in these states have a hate-hate view of both of them,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “In Arizona, 24%, New Hampshire, 23%, Georgia, 18%, and Nevada, 16%, notable proportions of likely voters have a negative impression of both Clinton and Trump.”

Turning to the down ballot races, in the contest for U.S. Senate in Arizona, Republican incumbent John McCain, 57%, has a commanding lead over his Democratic challenger Ann Kirkpatrick, 38%, among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  53% of the state’s likely electorate with a candidate preference say they are firmly committed to their choice for U.S. Senate in Arizona.

In Georgia, Republican incumbent Johnny Isakson, 53%, is well out in front of his Democratic challenger Jim Barksdale, 38%, by 15 points among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  59% of likely voters with a candidate preference report they strongly support their pick for U.S. Senate in Georgia.

In the contest to fill the seat of Nevada Senator Harry Reid, Republican Joe Heck, 47%, and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, 45%, are closely matched among likely voters in their state including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Looking at likely voters’ intensity of support, 58% of those with a candidate preference are firmly behind their choice for U.S. Senate in Nevada.

In New Hampshire, Republican incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte, 52%, leads her Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan, 44%, among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  64% of those with a candidate preference say they are strongly committed to their selection for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire.

“Democratic hopes of picking up a Senate seat in New Hampshire are in jeopardy as is their chance of holding Senator Harry Reid’s seat in Nevada,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Looking at a generic ballot for New Hampshire governor, 47% of likely voters are for the Republican candidate while 43% are for the Democratic candidate.

President Barack Obama’s job performance receives mixed reviews.  48% of residents in Arizona approve of how the president is performing in office while 44% disapprove.  Mr. Obama receives similar scores in Nevada where 47% think well of how he is doing his job while 43% disapprove.  Georgia and New Hampshire residents divide.  In New Hampshire, 47% of adults have a positive impression of how President Obama is doing his job while 46% consider the president’s performance in office to be lacking.  In Georgia, 47% of adults approve of President Obama’s job performance, and 45% disapprove.  Among likely voters, the president’s job approval rating is upside down in all four states.

“Voters’ assessment of President Obama’s job performance in all four of these states is below what national polls are showing,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Passing the Democratic baton to Clinton may be easier elsewhere.”

Complete September 11, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire

Complete September 11, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Arizona (Tables of Likely Voters)

Complete September 11, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Arizona (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete September 11, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Georgia (Tables of Likely Voters)

Complete September 11, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Georgia (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete September 11, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Nevada (Tables of Likely Voters)

Complete September 11, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Nevada (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete September 11, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New Hampshire (Tables of Likely Voters)

Complete September 11, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New Hampshire (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for Arizona

Nature of the Sample for Arizona

Marist Poll Methodology for Georgia

Nature of the Sample for Georgia

Marist Poll Methodology for Nevada

Nature of the Sample for Nevada

Marist Poll Methodology for New Hampshire

Nature of the Sample for New Hampshire

8/15: Clinton Strong in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia… Maintains Advantage in Florida

In the race for the White House, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are ahead of Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Clinton has made her largest gains in Colorado where Clinton, 46%, leads Trump, 32%, by 14 points among registered voters statewide.  This is up from the 8 point lead Clinton, 43%, had over Trump, 35%, in the July NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll released prior to the Republican and Democratic conventions.  Looking at the four-way contest including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton is still well-positioned to take Colorado’s 9 electoral votes.  Clinton has the support of 41% of voters compared with 29% for Trump, 15% for Johnson, and 6% for Stein.  Last month, Clinton, 39%, had a 6 point advantage over Trump, 33%, in the four-way contest.  The support for Johnson and Stein is little changed from that time when Johnson garnered 13%, and Stein had 4%.

With 29 electoral votes at stake in Florida, Clinton has the support of 44% of registered voters to 39% for Trump.  Previously, Clinton, 44%, had a 7 point lead over Trump, 37%, in the Sunshine State.  In the four-way race, Clinton, 41%, maintains her 5 point lead over Trump, 36%.  Johnson and Stein receive 9% and 4%, respectively.  Little has changed in the four-way contest in Florida since July.

In North Carolina where 15 electoral votes hang in the balance, Clinton, 48%, is ahead of Trump, 39%, by 9 points among the statewide electorate.  This is up slightly from 6 points last month when Clinton received 44% to 38% for Trump.  When Johnson and Stein are included, Clinton receives 45% to 36% for Trump.  Johnson has 9%, and Stein receives 2%.  The four candidates garnered similar support in the previous NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll.

In the hunt for Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, Clinton, 46%, outdistances Trump, 33%, among registered voters statewide.  Since adding Virginia Senator Tim Kaine to the ticket, Clinton has increased her lead from 9 points in last month’s survey to 13 points now.  At that time, Clinton had 44% to 35% for Trump.  In the four-way contest, Clinton, 43%, is ahead of Trump, 31%, by a similar 12 points.  12% are behind Johnson, and 5% back Stein.  In July, Clinton, 41%, had a 7 point advantage over Trump, 34%.  Johnson and Stein garnered, 10% and 2%, respectively.

“These are supposed to be battleground states, but right now, they don’t look that way,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Trump still needs to unify Republicans and better position himself among traditional GOP groups in order to make the contest competitive in these must-win states.”

In each of these four states, Clinton does better among her Democratic base than Trump does among his Republican core.  With the exception of Florida, Clinton is ahead of Trump among white voters with a college education.  In states where Clinton has improved her standing, she has made inroads among men.

“Not surprisingly, a wide gender gap is present in each of these four states,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Of note, however, Clinton receives the support of at least 40 percent of male voters, but Trump is not getting 40 percent among female voters.”

The favorable ratings of both Clinton and Trump remain upside down in each of these four states.  However, Clinton’s negatives are in the 50’s while Trumps are in the 60’s.  59% of Colorado residents, 52% of Florida adults, 54% of those in North Carolina, and 54% of Virginians have a negative opinion of Clinton.  Clinton’s net negative has decreased in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia since last time.

Looking at Trump’s scores, 69% of Colorado adults, 64% of Floridians, 62% of North Carolina residents, and 66% of those in Virginia have a negative view of him.  Trump received similar unfavorable scores in last month’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll in these four states.

Looking at the favorable rating of Clinton’s running mate Tim Kaine, he scores well in his home state of Virginia.  A majority, 52%, have a favorable opinion of Kaine while 31% have an unfavorable view of him.  Kaine is not well known to notable proportions of residents in Colorado, Florida, and North Carolina.  Mike Pence, Trump’s running mate, is also little known to notable proportions of adults in each of these states.

In the contest for U.S. Senate in Colorado, Democrat Michael Bennet, 53%, leads Republican Darryl Glenn, 38%, by 15 points among registered voters statewide.  Previously, Bennet had the identical 15 point lead over Glenn.

In a hypothetical contest for U.S. Senate in Florida, Marco Rubio, 49%, bests Democrat Patrick Murphy, 43%, by 6 points among registered voters statewide.  Last month, Rubio and Murphy were competitive, 47% to 44%, respectively.

In North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross, 46%, and Republican Richard Burr, 44%, are closely matched among the state’s electorate.  Previously, Burr, 48%, led Ross, 41%, by 7 points.

In the race for North Carolina governor, Democrat Roy Cooper, 51%, leads Republican Pat McCrory, 44%, by 7 points among registered voters.  In July, Cooper, 49%, and McCrory, 45%, were competitive.

In all four states, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is at least 50% among residents.  53% of Colorado adults, compared with 50% last month, approve of the job President Obama is doing in office.  In Florida, 51% of adults think the president is doing a good job in office.  49% of Floridians had this view previously.  The perception of the president’s job performance in North Carolina is at 50% similar to 49% last month.  52% of residents in Virginia approve of President Obama’s job performance.  Last month, 49% of Virginians had this view.

“It’s a tall order for a sitting president to pass the baton to a member of his own party,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “President Obama is actively trying to do just that, and his improved approval rating is boosting that effort.”

Complete August 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia

Complete August 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Colorado (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete August 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Florida (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete August 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete August 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Virginia (Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for Colorado

Nature of the Sample for Colorado

Marist Poll Methodology for Florida

Nature of the Sample for Florida

Marist Poll Methodology for North Carolina

Nature of the Sample for North Carolina

Marist Poll Methodology for Virginia

Nature of the Sample for Virginia

 

8/10: Clinton, Trump Competitive in Iowa & Ohio… Clinton Leads Trump in Pennsylvania

With a total of 44 electoral votes hanging in the balance in the key battleground states of Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are closely matched with Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence in Iowa.  The Democrats edge the Republicans in Ohio.  Clinton and Kaine have a wider lead over Trump and Pence in Pennsylvania.

In Iowa, Clinton, 41%, edges Trump, 37%, by 4 points among registered voters in a two-way matchup.  When NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question before the Republican and Democratic conventions, Clinton received 42% to 39% for Trump.  In a four-way contest including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Jill Stein of the Green Party, Clinton and Trump are tied at 35%.  Of note, Johnson receives double-digit support, 12%, among registered voters in Iowa.  Of the three states, Stein does best in the Hawkeye State with 6%.

In Ohio, Clinton is up over Trump, 43% to 38%, among the statewide electorate.  Last month, Clinton and Trump were tied with 39% each.  Clinton maintains a similar advantage over Trump when Johnson and Stein are included in the tossup.  Johnson receives double-digit support, 12%, statewide.  Stein has the backing of 4%.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton, 48%, has an 11 point lead over Trump, 37%, among registered voters statewide.  Previously, Clinton had a 9 point advantage over Trump, 45% to 36%.  Little changes in the contest when Johnson and Stein are added into the equation.

Clinton has made some gains among moderates.  In Iowa, Clinton’s edge over Trump has only inched up from 17 points to 20 points.  But, in Ohio, Clinton now leads Trump among moderates by 24 points, up from just 8 points last month.  And, in Pennsylvania, Clinton currently outdistances Trump by 19 points among this group compared with 14 points in July.

“The convention dust has settled in these three critical battleground states,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Despite the national spotlight of the conventions focused on each candidate, Clinton and Trump have not made any headway in voters’ positive impressions of them.”

Clinton and Trump are both unpopular in Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  57% of residents in Iowa, 60% in Ohio, and 53% of Pennsylvania residents have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.  Looking at Trump’s favorability, 64% of Iowans, 61% of Ohio residents, and 63% of those in Pennsylvania have an unfavorable opinion of him.  Clinton and Trump received similar scores in the July NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll.

Tim Kaine and Mike Pence are still not well known in each of these states.  In Iowa, 45% of residents have either never heard of Kaine, 14%, or are unsure how to rate him 31%.  31% of adults statewide have a favorable opinion of Kaine while 24% have an unfavorable one.  In Ohio, Kaine has low name recognition among 42% of adults who have either never heard of him, 16%, or are unsure how to rate him, 26%.  More than three in ten residents in Ohio, 32%, have a positive view of Kaine while 26% have a negative opinion of him.  In Pennsylvania, 41% of the statewide electorate have either never heard of Kaine, 12%, or are unsure how to rate him, 29%.  36% of Pennsylvania adults think well of Kaine while 23% have an unfavorable view of him.

Turning to Pence, 41% of Iowans have either never heard of him, 14%, or are unsure how to rate him, 27%.  34% have a positive opinion of him while 25% have a negative impression of Pence.  In Ohio, 37% adults have either never heard of Pence, 14%, or are unsure how to rate him, 23%.  34% of Ohio adults have a favorable opinion of him while 30% do not.  In Pennsylvania, Pence is not well known to 38% of residents who have either never heard of him, 13%, or are unsure how to rate him, 25%.  34% of residents in Pennsylvania think well of Pence while 28% have an unfavorable view of him.

In the contest for U.S. Senate in Iowa, Chuck Grassley, the Republican, receives the support of 52% of registered voters to 42% for Democrat Patty Judge.  Grassley maintains his advantage over Judge.  In the July NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, identical proportions of registered voters were for Grassley, 52%, and Judge, 42%.

In Ohio, Republican incumbent Rob Portman, 48%, is up over his Democratic challenger Ted Strickland, 43%, by 5 points among registered voters statewide.  Last month, Portman and Strickland were tied with each receiving 44%.

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Katie McGinty, 48%, edges Republican incumbent Pat Toomey, 44%, among the statewide electorate.  Previously, McGinty garnered 47% to 44% for Toomey.

Looking at the job approval rating of President Barack Obama in each of these states, the president does best in Pennsylvania.  49% of Pennsylvania residents approve of how he is doing in office.  An identical 49% had this view last month.  42% of Pennsylvania adults currently disapprove of how the president is doing in office.  In Iowa, 46% of residents approve of Mr. Obama’s job performance while 41% disapprove.  Iowans divided, 45% to 43%, in July.  In Ohio, 47% think well of President Obama’s job performance while 44% disapprove.  Previously, 44% of Ohio adults approved of how the president was doing in office while 44% did not.

Complete August 10, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

Complete August 10, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Iowa (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete August 10, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Ohio (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete August 10, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for Iowa

Nature of the Sample for Iowa

Marist Poll Methodology for Ohio

Nature of the Sample for Ohio

Marist Poll Methodology for Pennsylvania

Nature of the Sample for Pennsylvania  

8/5: Clinton with Wide Lead over Trump Nationally

In a national survey conducted from Monday through Wednesday this week[†], Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, 48%, lead Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence, 33%, by 15 points among registered voters in the race for the White House.  12% say they would not support either candidate if the election were held today, and 2% say they would back someone else.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton has gained support while Trump has lost ground since last month’s McClatchy-Marist Poll.  At that time, Clinton, 42%, and Trump, 39%, were competitive among the national electorate.

“Add a long list of unforced errors by Trump to Clinton’s post-convention bounce, and you end up with a Trump candidacy in jeopardy,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The tale of the tape is that Trump now trails Clinton by double digits and, in contrast with Clinton, is viewed as unacceptable by the majority of the electorate.”

Democrats have coalesced around Clinton.  Clinton has the backing of 90% of Democrats, up from 83% in July.  However, more than one in ten Republicans does not support either Trump or Clinton.  Among Republicans, 79% back Trump, down from 85%.  37% of independent voters are behind Clinton while 31% are for Trump.  20% of independents say they will not back either candidate.

Clinton has improved her standing among white voters.  In the previous McClatchy-Marist Poll, Trump was ahead of Clinton by 15 points among this group, 49% to 34%.  Currently, Trump and Clinton are competitive, 41% for Trump to 39% for Clinton.

Interestingly, Clinton has made gains among both college and non-college white voters.  Last time, Clinton led Trump by 4 points among white voters with a college degree.  Clinton is now ahead of Trump among this group by 12 points, 48% for Clinton to 36% for Trump.  Clinton has also cut into Trump’s advantage among white voters without a college education.  Last month, Trump outdistanced Clinton by 28 points among these voters.  Now, his lead is only 15 points, 46% for Trump to 31% for Clinton.

Clinton has enhanced her standing among African American voters nationally.  Clinton has the support of 93% of African Americans, a boost from 81% last time.  Among Latino voters, Clinton has maintained approximately a two-to-one advantage over Trump.

Clinton has made inroads among men.  She now leads Trump among men, 45% to 37%, compared with last time when she trailed Trump by 14 points.  Clinton maintains her lead among women, 50% for Clinton to 30% for Trump.

Are voters supporting their choice of candidate because they are for their candidate selection or because they are against his or her opponent?  57% of Clinton’s supporters report they plan to vote for Clinton, up from 49% in July.  40% of Clinton’s backers support her because they are against Trump, down from 48%.  Looking at voters behind Trump, 57% say they plan to vote for Trump because they are against Clinton.  36% report their ballot will be in support of Trump.  This is little changed from last month’s findings.

Both Clinton and Trump’s favorable ratings are upside down.  But, while Clinton’s favorable score has improved, Trump’s is little changed since the last McClatchy-Marist Poll.  Clinton now has a net negative of 15 points, down from 25 points last time.  40% of Americans have a favorable opinion of her, and 55% currently have an unfavorable impression of Clinton.  Trump has a net negative of 38 points, up from 34 points before the Republican National Convention.  28% of residents think well of Trump while 66% have a negative opinion of him.

Looking at the favorable scores of their respective running mates, both Virginia Senator Tim Kaine and Indiana Governor Mike Pence are better known than before they were selected.  On the Democratic side, 35% of Americans have a positive view of Clinton’s vice presidential selection, Tim Kaine, up from 16% previously.  26% have an unfavorable impression of him.  14% have never heard of him, down from 45% pre-convention.  24% are unsure how to rate him.  On the Republican side, 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of Trump’s running mate Mike Pence, up from 12 points last month.  31% have an unfavorable opinion of him an increase from 21 points last time.  17% have never heard of Pence, down from 56%, and 23% are unsure how to rate him.

When Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein of the Green Party are factored into the presidential contest, Clinton, 45%, still leads Trump, 31%, by a similar 14 points among registered voters nationally.  Johnson receives the support of 10% to 6% for Stein.  One percent supports another candidate, and 8% are undecided.   In the previous McClatchy-Marist Poll, Clinton received 40% to 35% for Trump, 10% for Johnson, and 5% for Stein.

On the issues driving the national discourse, Clinton outperforms Trump.  Clinton scores best on the questions pertaining to the treatment of Muslim Americans and issues facing gay, lesbian, and transgender Americans.  She is perceived weakest on the question of who would be more trusted to handle the creation of new jobs.  Still, the plurality of voters, 48%, now have more faith in Clinton to handle job creation.  On each of these questions, more voters say they trust Clinton, and fewer cite Trump when compared with the previous McClatchy-Marist Poll.

 

When it comes to a comparison of the qualities of the two candidates, Clinton also does better than Trump.  More than six in ten voters, 61%, say Clinton has the experience, and a majority of voters consider Clinton to be the candidate with the temperament to be president, 57%.  Pluralities of voters say Clinton is closer to them on the issues, 49%, is more likely to care about the average person, 48%, and is the one who shares their values, 46%.  While 25% of the electorate report that “honest and trustworthy” describes neither Clinton nor Trump, Clinton, 37%, now surpasses Trump, 33%, on that question.

Most voters consider the stakes of this election to be high.  77% of registered voters, compared with 73% last month, say it makes a big difference if Clinton or Trump is elected in November.  12% report it makes some difference while only 7% think it makes no difference at all.  In 2012, 60% of voters thought the candidate who was elected would make a big difference.

If Clinton were elected, a majority of the electorate, 53%, considers that to be either totally acceptable, 26%, or mostly acceptable, 27%.  However, this is not the case for Trump.  Close to six in ten voters, 59%, think it is mostly unacceptable, 13%, or totally unacceptable, 46%, if he were elected President of the United States.

How do the Democratic and Republican parties fare in the court of public opinion?  45% of voters, similar to the 44% in the previous McClatchy-Marist Poll, have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party while 48% have an unfavorable opinion of it.  Last month, 51% had a negative impression of the Democratic Party.  36% of voters have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party while 56% have an unfavorable one.  This is little changed from the 34% and 60%, respectively, who held these views in July.

49% of voters say that, if this November’s congressional elections were held today, they are more likely to support the Democratic candidate.  41% are more likely to back the Republican in their district.  Last time, 50% said they would back the Democratic candidate while 43% were planning to support the GOP candidate.

Looking at the job approval rating of President Barack Obama, the president’s score is at its highest point in seven years.  53% of registered voters, compared with 51% last month, approve of how the president is performing in office.  This is the president’s highest approval rating since October 2009 when the identical proportion of voters, 53%, thought well of his job performance.

Although most Americans are still concerned about the nation’s trajectory, more are optimistic about the direction of the nation than they were just a month ago.  34% report the country is moving in the right direction while 59% say it is moving in the wrong one.  Last month, 25% of U.S. residents thought the nation was on the right course while 68% said it was moving on the incorrect path.

[†] This national survey was conducted August 1st through August 3rd, 2016

Complete August 5, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

7/18: Beyond the Bounce

July 18, 2016 by  
Filed under Featured, Lee Miringoff

The GOP and Democratic political conventions are finally upon us.  They will be scored by the media for tone and how well each side makes its case to Americans.  No sooner will the gavel end these proceedings for campaign 2016, then those of us in the public opinion community will try to measure how the public reacted. But, beware the post-convention bounce.  If history is any guide, there is no guarantee that there will be a significant change in the presidential contest as a result of the conventions, or that it will be long-lasting.

Relying upon public opinion polls to draw accurate conclusions about the relative success of each convention can be tricky. There is no one, proven formula to anticipate what is a “good,” post-convention bounce, and subsequently, what “good” or “bad” means for the future of each campaign.

In fact, there are many factors which give meaning to post-convention polls.  First, both Trump and Clinton are well-known to the public even if neither one is particularly well-liked.  The spectacles in Cleveland and Philadelphia are likely to have important and lasting moments, but the public is not likely to learn much new about either presidential candidate.

Second, history tells us that the underdog is more likely to receive a significant post-convention lift, but it is, more times than not, short-lived.  Barry Goldwater and Walter Mondale are two examples that come to mind.  But, with candidates at the top of each 2016 ticket that are already household names, in a campaign that has had its unprecedented share of surprises, who exactly is the underdog?

Third, the most recent and impactful convention was 1992.  Bill Clinton rose to the occasion.  But, there were other factors at work including the unexpected withdrawal of Ross Perot as the convention came to a close.

Fourth, like the last two quadrennial gatherings, these conventions are back-to-back.  For political junkies, this may give the appearance of one two-week political fix and reduce the potential for a significant change in the contest.

This is not to say that the conventions will be irrelevant.  Unforced errors, in what are increasingly well-scripted events, can still occur.  Clint Eastwood’s chair comes to mind.  Also, according to the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll, both Trump and Clinton have plenty of work to do.  Trump needs to secure supporters of the other 16 candidates during the primaries.  Right now, Trump has the support of only 60% of voters who said they backed someone else in a GOP primary.  Clinton still needs to convince Sanders’ backers that she is the right choice.  Clinton only attracts 57% of those who “felt the Bern” during the nomination fight.

Of course, the reaction of the national electorate to the conventions obscures how voters in each state (and therefore, the Electoral College totals) view the four nights of the political hoopla in Cleveland and Philadelphia.  The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll conducted pre-convention surveys in seven key battleground states.  They show very competitive races in the Midwest states of Iowa and Ohio and a Clinton advantage in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.  Pre-convention, Trump and Clinton both have negatives that outpace their positives.

What should you look for post-convention?  Have there been any changes in Americans’ impressions of the candidates?  Has the political dialogue changed, and which candidate’s agenda is ruling the day?  Does their respective selection for Vice President suggest leadership, consensus, or pandering?  Does it reflect an appeal to their base supporters or an opportunity to reach out to undecided voters?  Do the candidates score differently as tickets post-convention than they did pre-convention when matched one on one?  The plan is to revisit these states after the shows move on to see whether voters have changed.

Whatever the result of the conventions, one thing we do know for sure.  Most Americans believe this is an election that will truly make a difference depending upon who wins or loses.  73% of Americans express this opinion today compared with only 60% who shared this view just four years ago.

So, will there be a bounce? Will it be long-lasting? Or, just a blip.  Stay tuned.

 

7/16: McClatchy-Marist Poll

What do voters nationally think of the potential vice presidential picks of presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

Complete McClatchy-Marist Poll tables and methodology

7/15: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, & Virginia: Clinton with Pre-Convention Advantage

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is ahead of presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump by single digits in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.  With 9 electoral votes on the line in Colorado, 29 in Florida, 15 in North Carolina, and 13 at stake in Virginia, Clinton has the early edge.  In 2008 and 2012, President Barack Obama carried these states with the exception of North Carolina.  Obama lost North Carolina by 2 points in 2012.

In Colorado, Clinton, 43%, is ahead of Trump, 35%, among registered voters statewide.  Among those who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Clinton’s advantage remains 8 points.

In Florida, 44% of registered voters support Clinton to 37% for Trump.  When the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question in March, Clinton received 49% of the statewide electorate to 41% for Trump.  Among Florida’s registered voters who say they definitely plan to vote, three points currently separate Clinton and Trump.

In North Carolina, Clinton garners the support of 44% of registered voters compared with 38% for Trump.  Clinton and Trump are separated by four points among those who report they definitely plan to vote in November.

In Virginia, Clinton, 44%, leads Trump, 35%, among registered voters statewide.  Among those who say they will definitely go to the polls on Election Day, Clinton is up by 10 points.

In each of these four states, Clinton’s Democratic base is intact as is Trump’s support among Republicans.  Although Clinton leads Trump by almost 20 points in Colorado among independent voters, independents in all four states have not coalesced behind either candidate.  In fact, more than one in four independents in Florida and North Carolina say they support neither Clinton nor Trump, back another candidate, or are undecided.  About one in three independents in Colorado and Virginia say the same.

A gender gap exists in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia.  49% of women in Colorado, 50% in North Carolina, and 52% of female voters in Virginia support Clinton while 42% of men in Colorado, 46% in North Carolina, and 41% of male voters in Virginia are for Trump.  In Florida, Clinton, 45%, leads Trump, 35%, among women.  Among Florida voters who are men, Clinton, 42%, and Trump, 39%, are closely matched.

In each of these four states, Trump leads Clinton by double digits among white voters without a college degree.  In North Carolina, 56%, and Virginia, 54%, Trump receives majority support among these voters.  In Florida and Colorado, Trump receives the backing of pluralities of white voters without a college degree, 47% and 44%, respectively.  However, he underperforms what Mitt Romney received among these voters in 2012.

Among white voters with a college education, Clinton garners the support of pluralities in Colorado, 49%, and Virginia, 42%.  Trump, 41%, and Clinton, 39%, are competitive among white voters with a college education in North Carolina.  In Florida, Trump receives 44% to Clinton’s 39% among this group.  Although Trump underperforms the Republican share from 2012, Clinton receives about the same support as Obama among these voters.

“With 66 electoral votes at stake in these four states, Donald Trump is playing catchup against Hillary Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The driving force behind voters’ choices is the negative impressions they have of both Trump and Clinton.  Clinton’s single-digit lead in each of these states is due to her slight advantage in how voters perceive the two candidates.”

In a four-way contest with Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, little changes in these four states.  Clinton retains her single-digit advantage over Trump.

Clinton and Trump are unpopular in each of the states polled, and their favorable scores are upside down.   59% of residents in Colorado, 56% of those in Florida, 58% in North Carolina, and 57% of adults in Virginia have a negative opinion of Clinton.  Impressions of Trump aren’t any better.  68% of Colorado adults, 63% of Floridians, 61% of North Carolina residents, and 64% of those in Virginia have an unfavorable impression of Trump.

Turning to the contests for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet, 53%, leads his Republican challenger Darryl Glenn, 38%, by 15 points among Colorado’s registered voters.  In Florida, a hypothetical matchup between former presidential candidate and Republican Senator Marco Rubio and potential opponent Democrat Patrick Murphy, shows a close contest, 47% to 44%, among the statewide electorate.  In North Carolina, incumbent Senator Richard Burr, 48%, leads Democrat Deborah Ross, 41%, among the North Carolina electorate.

In the race for governor in North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper, 49%, is competitive against Republican Governor Pat McCrory, 45%, among registered voters statewide.

The job performance of President Barack Obama is viewed more positively than negatively by residents in each of these states.  In Colorado, 50% of adults approve of how the president is doing his job while 41% disapprove.  In Florida, 49% of residents statewide approve of how President Obama is performing while 41% do not.  Floridians were divided, 48% to 44%, in the March NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll.  In North Carolina, the president’s approval rating stands at 49% among residents statewide while his negative score is at 42%.  In Virginia, 49% think the president is doing his job well while 43% disapprove.

Complete July 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia

Complete July 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Colorado (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete July 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Florida (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete July 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete July 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Virginia (Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for Colorado

Nature of the Sample for Colorado

Marist Poll Methodology for Florida

Nature of the Sample for Florida

Marist Poll Methodology for North Carolina

Nature of the Sample for North Carolina

Marist Poll Methodology for Virginia

Nature of the Sample for Virginia

7/15: Clinton and Trump Competitive Nationally

In the race for the White House nationally, presumptive nominees Democrat Hillary Clinton, 42%, and Republican Donald Trump, 39%, are closely matched among registered voters nationally.  13% say they would not support either candidate, 1% backs someone else, and 4% are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, Clinton, 50%, was ahead of Trump, 41%, by nine points among the national electorate.

While a partisan divide exists, there is little consensus among independent voters.  36% of independents say they would vote for Clinton while 33% would support Trump.  A notable 23% of independents say they won’t support either candidate.  Among Democrats, 83% are behind Clinton while a similar proportion of Republicans, 85%, back Trump.

A gender gap is present.  A slim majority of women voters, 51%, support Clinton while a plurality of men, 47%, is for Trump.  Interestingly, 16% of men say they do not support either candidate.  Differences also exist between white voters with a college degree and those without a college education.  A majority of white voters without a college education, 56%, support Trump.  Among white voters who are college graduates, 45% back Clinton to 41% for Trump.

“Both candidates need to step up their game during their respective conventions,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “They have an opportunity to turn around the negative impressions many voters have of each of them.”

However, the national electorate is not overwhelmed by either Clinton or Trump.  49% of Clinton’s supporters report they chose her because they are for Clinton while 48% say they made their selection because they are against Trump.  Notably, 37% of Democrats and 70% of independents who support Clinton say they are ‘with her’ because they oppose Trump.

Among Trump’s backers, a majority, 56%, made their selection because they are against Clinton while slightly more than four in ten, 41%, are behind Trump.  Looking at party, 51% of Republicans and 69% of independents who are Trump supporters say they made their choice because they are against Clinton.

To make matters worse for both Clinton and Trump, their favorable ratings are upside down.  Nearly two-thirds of adults nationally, 64%, have an unfavorable opinion of Trump while a similar 60% have a negative opinion of Clinton.

When Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein of the Green Party are included in the presidential tossup, Clinton receives the support of 40% of voters to 35% for Trump.  Johnson garners 10% of the national electorate while 5% back Stein.  Two percent support someone else, and 9% are undecided.  Of note, more than one in four voters who report they supported Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders during the Democratic contest say they are for Johnson, 14%, or Stein, 13%.  Similarly, about a quarter of voters who backed a Republican other than Trump in the primaries report they plan to vote for Johnson, 19%, or Stein, 5%.

Do voters think it matters if Clinton or Trump is elected in November?  Nearly three in four voters, 73%, say it makes a big difference, and an additional 14% report it makes some difference.  One in ten members of the electorate, 10%, says it does not matter at all.  In 2012, 60% of voters nationally thought in mattered a great deal who was elected president.

Looking at the issues, more than six in ten voters, 61%, put greater trust in Clinton to handle the treatment of Muslim Americans in this country.  More voters have greater confidence in Clinton than Trump to handle issues facing gay, lesbian, and transgender Americans, 59%, immigration, 54%, illegal Mexican immigrants, 54%, and gun violence, 50%.  The national electorate divides about whether Clinton or Trump is more trusted when it comes to negotiating fair trade policies, the war against terrorism, the separation between Church and State, and the creation of good jobs.

 

When it comes to the qualities of the candidates, Clinton is overwhelmingly perceived as the candidate who has the experience to be president, 60%, and a majority, 56%, reports she has the temperament to be president.  Clinton is also thought to be the candidate who cares about the average person, 45%, and who shares voters’ values, 43%.  The national electorate divides about whether Clinton or Trump is better described as honest and trustworthy or who is closer to them on the issues.  22% say neither candidate is honest and trustworthy.

Complete July 15, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

 

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