7/17: New Hampshire 2016 Could Be Swing State

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in a close contest against potential GOP rival, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in a 2016 general election matchup in New Hampshire.  Clinton has single-digit leads against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  She has a wider lead over Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.  But, only against Cruz is Clinton supported by more than 50% of New Hampshire voters.  Clinton does better than each of her potential opponents among independent voters.  The gender gap in all of these matchups is wide.

Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll New Hampshire Release and Tables

Clinton is well liked by a majority of New Hampshire residents owing to her strong standing among women.  Vice President Biden has a higher negative rating than positive score among residents in the state.

New Hampshire residents give mixed reviews to Republicans Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker.  The ratings for Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz are all upside down with more residents viewing them negatively than positively.

The morning line for the first-in-the-nation presidential primary has Hillary Clinton the overwhelming choice of Democrats over Joe Biden.  Both Clinton and Biden are popular among most Democrats in the state.

On the Republican side, there is no clear choice among the potential 2016 New Hampshire Primary electorate for their party’s nominee.  More than one in five GOP’ers are undecided, and only Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush have low double-digit support.  Each potential GOP contender is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by Republicans in the state.  Rand Paul is the most popular among GOP voters.

“New Hampshire always gets a lot of attention because of its status as the first-in-the-nation primary and 2016 will be no exception,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “It may be a frequent stopping off point for the general election, as well.”

Poll Points

  • Democrat Hillary Clinton is in a competitive contest against potential GOP rival Rand Paul, 46% to 43%.  She has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio, 47% to 42%, in each instance.  Clinton does better against Scott Walker, 48% to 39%, and Ted Cruz, 51% to 38%.
  • Clinton is boosted by her support among independent voters and is backed by the majority of women in each matchup.
  • Statewide, 53%, of residents have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton including 60% of women.  42% of state residents have an unfavorable opinion of her.  Biden is viewed positively by 39% of New Hampshire residents, but 48% have a negative opinion of him.
  • Residents in the state divide about how they view several of the potential GOP candidates:  Marco Rubio who has a 31% positive rating and a 28% negative score; Rand Paul who receives a favorable rating of 39% and an unfavorable score of 38%; and Scott Walker, with whom voters are least familiar, is liked by 24% of residents and disliked by 23%.
  • Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz all have ratings that are upside down.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Frontrunner

  • Hillary Clinton outpaces Joe Biden 74% to 18% among the potential New Hampshire Democratic Primary electorate for 2016.
  • Most Democrats in the state, 94%, have a positive opinion of Clinton.  Just 4% view her negatively.  Joe Biden is also liked by most New Hampshire Democrats.  79% have a favorable view of him, and 14% have an unfavorable opinion of him.

GOP:  No Pace Horse

  • 22% of the potential New Hampshire Republican Primary electorate are undecided in their preference for a 2016 GOP presidential nominee.  Paul at 14%, Christie at 13%, and Bush at 10% are the only potential candidates who have double-digit support.
  • The contest is no clearer when the potential Republican electorate is asked for a second choice.  Rubio is the backup pick of 16%, Bush garners 13%, Christie and Paul each attract 12%, and Ryan is the second choice of 10%.
  • 71% of state Republicans have a positive opinion of Rand Paul and only 15% have a negative impression of him.  Although each of the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among New Hampshire Republicans, Paul has the highest favorability rating.  A majority of state Republicans like Bush, 65%, Rubio, 58%, and Christie, 52%.  50% have a positive view of Cruz and Walker.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/17: Iowa 2016: Rand Paul and Chris Christie Tossup with Hillary Clinton

Looking ahead to 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the odds on favorite against Vice President Joe Biden among Iowa Democrats for her party’s nomination.  But, she would find a general election matchup against either Kentucky Senator Rand Paul or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie very competitive.  Clinton edges former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and has an early lead over Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.  There is a wide gender gap in these matchups.  Although each of the potential Republican candidates has a more positive than negative rating with GOP voters, all but Paul and Rubio are upside down when it comes to Iowa residents’ impressions of the Republican candidates.

Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Iowa Release and Tables

But, first things first, one in five 2016 potential Republican caucus goers are unsure who they support for their presidential nominee, and no single potential candidate has broken out of the pack.  Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan have low double-digit support among potential Republican caucus attendees in the state.

On the Democratic side, seven in ten support Clinton over Biden.  Even though Clinton is more popular, both receive positive scores from most Democrats.  Clinton is viewed favorably by a majority of Iowans.  Not so for Biden whose negatives among state residents exceed his positives, overall.

“In a state Obama carried twice, Hillary Clinton would find Rand Paul and Chris Christie formidable opponents in the battle for Iowa’s six electoral votes,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The contest narrows in these two matchups because Paul and Christie do better with independent voters than do the other Republicans.”

Poll Points

  • Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is closely matched against potential GOP rivals Rand Paul, 45% to 45%, and Chris Christie, 44% to 43%, among Iowa’s registered voters.  Clinton has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, 46% to 42%.
  • In these contests, Clinton and each of the potential Republican contenders, Paul, Christie, and Bush, are competitive among independents.
  • Clinton is ahead of Marco Rubio, 49% to 40%; Ted Cruz, 49% to 37%; and Scott Walker, 50% to 37%.
  • Regardless of the potential GOP opponent against Clinton, there is a wide gender gap.
  • A majority of Iowans, 52%, have a positive impression of Hillary Clinton, and 42% have a negative view of her.  In contrast, more state residents, 48%, have an unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden, and 39% have a favorable one.
  • Rand Paul has a 38% favorable and a 36% unfavorable rating, and Marco Rubio has a 30% favorable and a 28% unfavorable score.  They are the only two Republicans who are not viewed more negatively than positively by Iowans.
  • Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush have higher negative scores than positive.

GOP:  No Leader of the Pack

  • 20% of the potential Republican electorate in Iowa are undecided about their choice for a 2016 GOP nominee.  Bush at 12%, Paul at 12%, and Ryan at 11% are the only potential candidates in double-digits.
  • The contest hardly clarifies when potential Republican caucus goers are asked their second choice.  Bush at 12%, Santorum, Ryan, and Perry each at 11%, and Paul at 10% are the only potential candidates who attract double-digit support as a second choice.
  • All the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among Iowa Republicans.  Rand Paul is liked best by Iowa Republicans.  66% of Republicans have a positive view of him, and only 18% have a negative impression of him.  A majority of state Republicans also have a favorable view of Bush, 63%, and Rubio, 57%.  50% have a positive impression of Christie.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Front-runner

  • Hillary Clinton receives the support of 70% of the potential Democratic electorate compared with 20% for Joe Biden.
  • Most Democrats in the state, 89%, have a favorable impression of Clinton.  Only 6% view her unfavorably.  Joe Biden is also popular among Iowa Democrats.  72% view him positively, and just 18% see him in a negative light.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

5/12: Arkansas: Pryor Leads for U.S. Senate; Hutchinson Ahead for Governor

In the race for U.S. Senate in Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor is ahead of Republican Tom Cotton, 51% to 40%, among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent support another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete May 12, 2014 Arkansas NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll

“These results give us a sense of who is ahead among all potential voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As we get closer to November, polling will be able to identify the character of the electorate for this election cycle.”

Key points:

  • Party ID.  A partisan divide exists.  Most Democrats — 89% — back Pryor while only 5% are for Cotton.  Among Republicans, most — 85% — support Cotton compared with 10% for Pryor.  Among independents, Pryor edges Cotton, 48% to 41%.
  • Gender.  There is a gender gap.  A majority of women voters — 55% — are for Pryor while 35% are behind Cotton.  Men divide.  46% of male voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — backs Cotton.
  • Race.  While 85% of African American voters support Pryor, white voters divide.  46% of white voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — are for Cotton.
  • White Evangelical Christians.  Cotton leads Pryor, 58% to 36%, among registered voters who are white and describe themselves as Evangelical Christians.  One percent supports another candidate, and 5% are undecided.
  • President Obama.  Pryor overwhelmingly carries voters who approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, 86% to 9% for Cotton.  Among voters who disapprove of the president’s performance in office, Cotton leads 61% to 32% for Pryor.

“So far, Senator Pryor has staved off Cotton’s challenge,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Holding this seat is no easy task for a Democrat with President Obama’s approval rating at 33% in the state.”

Table: 2014 Senate Tossup (Arkansas Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Plurality with Favorable Impression of Pryor…Cotton with Mixed Reviews

46% of Arkansans have a favorable opinion of Pryor while 32% have an unfavorable view of him.  Nine percent have never heard of Pryor, and 14% are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters statewide, 50% think well of Pryor while 35% have a lesser view of him.  11% are unsure how to rate him.

47% of white Evangelical Christians like Pryor while 38% have a negative opinion of him.  Five percent have never heard of Pryor, and 10% are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Cotton, 37% of Arkansas residents have an unfavorableview of him, 34% have a positive opinion of him.  15% have never heard of Cotton, and 14% are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters, 39% have a negative view of Cotton.  38% like him, and 9% have never heard of him.  14% are unsure how to rate him.  Among white Evangelical Christians, 48% have a positive opinion of Cotton.  31% have a negative one, and 8% have never heard of Cotton.  13% are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Pryor Favorability (Arkansas Adults)

Table: Cotton Favorability (Arkansas Adults)

Hutchinson with Advantage in Governor’s Race

Looking at the gubernatorial contest in Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson — 49% — leads Democrat Mike Ross — 42% — by 7 points among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent back another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

Key points:

  • Party ID.  89% of Republicans are for Hutchinson.  This compares with 78% of Democrats who are for Ross.  52% of independents support Hutchinson while 37% are for Ross.
  • Race.  71% of African American voters support Ross while 56% of white voters are for Hutchinson.
  • White Evangelical Christians.  By more than two-to-one, Hutchinson leads Ross among those who are white and describe themselves as Evangelical Christians.  69% support Hutchinson while 27% are for Ross.

Table: 2014 Gubernatorial Tossup (Arkansas Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Nearly Three in Four Approve of Beebe’s Job Performance

74% of adults approve of how Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe is doing in office.  13% disapprove, and 13% are unsure.  Among registered voters in the state, 79% applaud Beebe’s job performance.  13% think he has fallen short, and 9% are unsure.

And, what do Arkansas residents think of the state’s most famous governor?  Seven in ten — 70% — have a favorable impression of former President Bill Clinton while 26% have an unfavorable view of him.  Four percent are unsure how to rate Clinton.  Looking at registered voters, 68% like Clinton, 28% do not, and 3% are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Mike Beebe Approval Rating (Arkansas Adults)

Table: Bill Clinton Favorability (Arkansas Adults)

Majority in Arkansas Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance

57% of residents statewide disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president.  33% approve, and 9% are unsure.  Among registered voters, 60% think Obama has missed the mark.  34% approve of the president’s job performance, and 6% are unsure.

Do adults in Arkansas approve of the president’s Affordable Care Act?  A majority — 54% — thinks the health care law is a bad idea.  This includes 47% who strongly hold this opinion and 7% who somewhat do.  30% believe the health care law is a good one.  Included here are 21% who strongly support the program and 9% who just think it’s a good idea.  14% of residents have no opinion either way, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Obama Approval Rating (Arkansas Adults)

Table: Is the New Health Care Law a Good or Bad Idea? (Arkansas Adults)

Nearly Seven in Ten Say Nation is Off Course

68% of Arkansans say the nation is moving in the wrong direction.  27% believe it is on track.  An additional 5% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters have these opinions.  69% believe the nation is off track.  27% say it is on course.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Arkansas Adults)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

4/16: Clinton with Majority Support against GOP Hopefuls

If Hillary Clinton were to enter the presidential contest, she would be the front-runner with a strong lead against her possible Republican rivals.  Her closest opponent, Paul Ryan, trails Clinton by 8 percentage points among registered voters nationally.  Clinton outpaces her other potential GOP rivals by double digits.

Click Here for Complete April 16, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Hillary Clinton is very popular among Democrats and may have smooth sailing to the Democratic nomination,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “She currently dominates a crowded Republican field and continues to break 50% against each of her possible GOP rivals.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates: 

  • 51% support Clinton compared with 43% for Ryan.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton — 52% — led Ryan — 44% — by the same margin in February’s McClatchy-Marist Poll.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Against Chris Christie, Clinton receives 53% to 42% for Christie.  Five percent are undecided.  However, Clinton outpaced Christie by 21 percentage points in February.  At that time, 58% of registered voters, then, backed Clinton while 37% supported Christie.  Six percent were undecided.
  • 53% of voters support Clinton while 40% are behind Mike Huckabee.  Six percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 55% were for Clinton while 41% were behind Huckabee.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 54% — also has the advantage against Rand Paul — 40%.  Six percent are undecided.  In that previous McClatchy-Marist Poll, 58% were for Clinton while 38% were for Paul.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 54% — outdistances Ted Cruz — 39% — by 15 percentage points.  Seven percent are undecided.  Two months ago, 56% of voters were behind Clinton while 39% supported Cruz.  Five percent, then, were undecided.
  • When matched against Jeb Bush, Clinton leads Bush, 55% to 39%.  Six percent are undecided.  In February, Clinton received 58% to 38% for Bush.  Four percent were undecided.
  • Clinton garners 54% to 38% for Marco Rubio.  Eight percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 58% of voters supported Clinton while 37% backed Rubio.  Four percent were undecided.
  • Clinton — 56% — does the best against Joe Scarborough — 35%.  Here, she leads Scarborough by 21 percentage points.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Scarborough

Majority with Favorable View of Clinton…Christie and Bush Upside Down

52% of registered voters nationally have a positive opinion of Clinton, including 81% of Democrats.  43% have an unfavorable view of her, including 78% of Republicans.  Five percent have either never heard of Clinton or are unsure how to rate her.  Independent voters divide.  49% of these voters like Hillary Clinton and 46% do not.  There has been no change on this question since February when identical proportions of registered voters had these views.  52%, at that time, thought well of Clinton, 43% had an unfavorable opinion of her, and 5% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Voters’ impressions of Christie and Bush are upside down.  44% of voters have a negative view of Christie while 36% have a positive impression of him.  One in five — 20% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Two months ago, 46% had an unfavorable opinion of Christie, and 33% thought well of him.  21% had either never heard of Christie or were unsure how to rate him.

Looking at Bush’s favorable rating, 42% have an unfavorable impression of him.  However, 31% like Bush.  27% have either never heard of Jeb Bush or are unsure how to rate him.

Close to two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — have either never heard of Scarborough or are unsure how to rate him.  21% have a negative view of the former congressman and morning show host while 14% have a positive impression of Scarborough.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability (Over Time)

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability (Over Time)

Table: Jeb Bush Favorability

Table: Joe Scarborough Favorability

No Clear Leader of the GOP Pack

None of the potential Republican contenders for president has emerged as the front-runner.  2016 for the GOP is an open contest with no one having established an early advantage.

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:

  • 13% Mike Huckabee
  • 13% Jeb Bush
  • 12% Rand Paul
  • 12% Chris Christie
  • 12% Paul Ryan
  •   7% Marco Rubio
  •   5% Scott Walker
  •   4% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Bobby Jindal
  •   3% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  • <1% John Kasich
  • 14% undecided

In February’s McClatchy-Marist Poll, Christie and Huckabee each received the support of 13% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  12% backed Rubio while 9% were for Paul.  Another 9% supported Ryan.  Bush and Sarah Palin each garnered the support of 8% of Republicans.  Seven percent were behind Walker, and 5% backed Cruz.  Perry and Santorum each had 2%, and Kasich garnered 1%.  12%, at that time, were undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/15: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to 2016, what would Hillary Clinton’s electoral chances be if she decided to run for president?  Is there a clear front-runner among the potential Republican candidates?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

2/12: Clinton Breaks 50% against GOP Rivals for 2016

February 12, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

If Hillary Clinton were to run for president in 2016 and win her party’s nomination, a majority of registered voters nationally would support Clinton, regardless of her Republican opponent.  Her closest competitor is Paul Ryan who Clinton leads by single digits.  Clinton has a similar lead when up against former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Click Here for Complete February 12, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Voters are still a long way from making choices,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, right now, Clinton is in a league of her own.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

  • Clinton — 52% — leads Paul Ryan — 44% — by 8 percentage points.  Four percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in December, Clinton received 56% to 40% for Ryan.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 53% — is also ahead of Romney — 44% — by single digits.  Three percent are undecided.
  • Against Mike Huckabee, Clinton opens up a double-digit lead.  Here, 55% of voters are for Clinton compared with 41% for Huckabee.  Four percent are undecided.
  • Clinton — 56% — has a seventeen percentage point advantage over Ted Cruz — 39%.  Five percent are undecided.  In December, Clinton received 57% to 35% for Cruz.  Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton also outpaces Jeb Bush by 20 percentage points.  58% of voters nationally support Clinton compared with 38% for Bush.  Four percent are undecided.  In December, Clinton had 53% while Bush received 41%.  Six percent, then, were undecided.
  • When matched against Rand Paul, Clinton leads by 20 percentage points.  A majority — 58% — supports Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  Four percent are undecided.  In that previous McClatchy-Marist survey, 55% backed Clinton while 40% were for Paul.  Five percent were undecided.
  • Against Chris Christie, Clinton — 58% — outdistances Christie — 37% — by 21 percentage points.  Six percent are undecided.  When this question was reported in January, 50% of voters were for Clinton while 37% were for Christie.  12% were undecided.
  • Nearly six in ten voters — 58% — support Clinton compared with 37% for Marco Rubio.  Four percent are undecided.  In December, 52% backed Clinton while 42% supported Rubio.  Five percent were undecided.
  • Against Sarah Palin, Clinton receives 62% to 35% for Palin.  Three percent are undecided.  Two months ago, 59% were behind Clinton compared with 36% for Palin.  Four percent were undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Romney

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Palin

Favorably Speaking?

A majority of registered voters — 52% — has a favorable view of Clinton.  43% have an unfavorable impression of her, and 5% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In January, 51% of voters thought well of Clinton.  39% had a lesser view of her, and 10% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Half of Americans, including a slim majority of voters, give Clinton high marks for her tenure as Secretary of State.  50% of adults approve of the job she did.  This includes 18% who think she did an excellent job and 32% who believe she did a good one.  28% rate her performance as fair while 19% give her poor marks.  Three percent are unsure.  Among registered voters, 51% of voters think highly of the job Clinton did as Secretary of State.  26% report she did an average job while 20% say she fell short.  Three percent of voters are unsure.

Romney’s favorability is upside down.  51% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney while 43% have a favorable one.  Six percent have either never heard of Romney or are unsure how to rate him.

Christie’s favorable rating is also more negative than positive.  A plurality of voters — 46% — has an unfavorable view of him.  33% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of Christie or are unsure how to rate him.  Fewer voters are unsure about Christie’s image, to his detriment.  In January, 32% of voters had a negative view of Christie.  29% had a positive one, and 39% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Americans’ opinions regarding Christie’s involvement in the George Washington Bridge controversy have flipped.  46% of adults nationally currently say Christie is not telling the truth while 42% think he is.  12% are unsure.  In January, 44% of Americans reported Christie was being mostly truthful while 33% thought Christie was not being completely honest.  23%, then, were unsure.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Hillary Clinton Approval Rating as Secretary of State

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Telling the Truth about the George Washington Bridge Controversy?

Crowded Field for 2016 GOP Nomination

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:

  • 13% Chris Christie
  • 13% Mike Huckabee
  • 12% Marco Rubio
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   9% Paul Ryan
  •   8% Jeb Bush
  •   8% Sarah Palin
  •   7% Scott Walker
  •   5% Ted Cruz
  •   2% Rick Perry
  •   2% Rick Santorum
  •   1% John Kasich
  • 12% undecided

“The Democrats may have a clear front-runner in Hillary Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, front-runner is not the word you would use to describe the GOP field.”

When this question was last reported in January, Christie had the support of 16%, 12% backed Ryan while 9% were for Paul.  Bush had the support of 8%, and 7% were for Rubio.  Six percent backed Perry, and Santorum and Cruz each received 5%.  Four percent were for Scott Walker while 3% were behind Bobby Jindal.  One in four — 25% — was undecided.

Which candidate would be the second choice of Republican and Republican leaning independents without Christie and Palin in the contest?  Here is how the race stands among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents:

  • 15% Marco Rubio
  • 15% Mike Huckabee
  • 13% Paul Ryan
  • 12% Jeb Bush
  • 11% Rand Paul
  •   8% Scott Walker
  •   6% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  •   1% John Kasich
  • 14% undecided

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus (Second Choice)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

2/11: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to 2016, if Hillary Clinton were to seek the Presidency and receive her party’s nomination, how would she fare against potential Republican opponents?  Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie still a formidable candidate?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist poll.

©istockphoto/MCCAIG

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

1/15: NBC News/Marist Poll: Are New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s Political Plans Bottlenecked?

January 15, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Has New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s image suffered nationally because of the controversy surrounding his administration’s role in the traffic tie-ups on the George Washington Bridge in September of last year?  According to this NBC News/Marist Poll, while 69% of Americans say the political uproar has not had any effect on their opinion of Christie, close to one in five — 18% — likes him less because of it.  Five percent like him more, and 8% are unsure.  Among Americans who have heard about the bridge controversy, 24% say their dislike for Christie has grown.

Click Here for Complete January 15, 2014 USA NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“The question is can Chris Christie weather this political storm, or is this another in a list of considerable hurdles he will need to overcome if he wants to make a run for the White House,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

By party:

  • Nearly seven in ten Republicans — 69% — report the political brouhaha has had no impact on how they view Christie.  However, 16% like him less.  Only 8% like him more, and 7% are unsure.
  • Among Democrats, 61% report the issue has had no impact on their opinion of Christie.  However, 28% say they like him less, and just 3% like him more.  Eight percent are unsure.
  • Looking at independent voters, 73% report the issue has had no effect on their impression of Christie.  Still, 17% like him less, and 5% like him more.  Five percent are unsure.

A plurality of Americans believes New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s assertion that he played no role in creating traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge for political retribution.  44% of adults nationally say Christie is mostly telling the truth that he had no knowledge of the events that led up to the traffic tie-ups.  However, a notable 33% report he is mostly not telling the truth, and an additional 23% are unsure.

Americans who have heard about the bridge controversy are more likely to think Christie is being honest.  A majority of these Americans — 52% — thinks Christie is telling the truth compared with 34% who believe he is not.  15% are unsure.

By party:

  • While 61% of Republicans think Christie is mostly telling the truth, 20% believe he is not being forthright.  19% are unsure.
  • Not surprisingly, a plurality of Democrats — 41% — says Christie is not telling the whole truth.  However, 34% report he is being honest with the public.  24% are unsure.
  • Nearly half of independent voters — 47% — think Christie is telling the truth while 31% say he is not.   23% are unsure.

Do Americans know that members of Christie’s staff have been implicated in creating these traffic jams?  Slightly more than seven in ten residents — 71% — have at least some knowledge of the political scandal.  This includes 39% of Americans who know a lot about the story and 32% who have some awareness of the controversy.  30% report they know nothing about the issue.  Do Americans think Governor Christie is a bully or a strong leader?  Nearly half — 47% — say he comes across as a strong leader while 27% describe him as a bully.  26% are unsure.

By party:

  • About seven in ten Republicans nationally — 71% — consider Christie to be a strong leader.  11% call him a bully, and 18% are unsure.
  • There is little consensus among Democrats.  38% say he is a bully while 36% think he comes across as a strong leader.  27% are unsure.
  • 47% of independent voters think Christie is a strong leader while 26% believe he is a bully.  27% are unsure.

Table: Has the George Washington Bridge Controversy Made You Like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie More or Less?

Table: Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Telling the Truth about the George Washington Bridge Controversy?

Table: Awareness of the George Washington Bridge Traffic Controversy

Table: Does New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Come Across as a Bully or Strong Leader?

No Clear Front-runner in Crowded GOP Field… One in Four Undecided

There has been much speculation about whether or not Christie will seek the Republican nomination for president in 2016.  How would Christie fare against his potential GOP opponents?

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 16% Chris Christie
  • 12% Paul Ryan
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   8% Jeb Bush
  •   7% Marco Rubio
  •   6% Rick Perry
  •   5% Rick Santorum
  •   5% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Scott Walker
  •   3% Bobby Jindal
  • 25% undecided 

When Marist last reported this question in December, Christie had the support of 18% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  Paul received the backing of 12% while Ryan — 11%, Cruz — 10%, and Bush — 10% followed closely behind.  Sarah Palin garnered 8%, and Rubio had the backing of 7%.  At the time, Walker and Santorum each received 4% while 3% supported Perry.  13%, then, were undecided.

How would the GOP contest look without Christie in the mix?  Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands without Governor Chris Christie:

  • 15% Paul Ryan
  • 11% Rand Paul
  • 11% Jeb Bush
  • 10% Marco Rubio
  •   7% Rick Santorum
  •   6% Ted Cruz
  •   6% Rick Perry
  •   5% Scott Walker
  •   4% Bobby Jindal
  • 26% undecided

“The Republican field for 2016 clearly lacks a front-runner with or without Chris Christie,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus without Chris Christie

Clinton Widens Lead over Christie in Hypothetical Contest

If Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie were to face off in the 2016 presidential election, Clinton would defeat Christie by double digits.  Half of registered voters — 50% — would support Clinton compared with 37% for Christie.  12% are undecided.  When Marist last reported this question in December, voters divided.  48% supported Clinton while 45% were behind Christie.  Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

  • Most Democrats — 90% — would support Clinton compared with 3% for Christie.  Seven percent are undecided.  Last month, 85% were for Clinton while Christie garnered 10%.  Five percent were undecided.
  • More than three in four Republicans — 78% — would cast their ballot for Christie compared with 16% for Clinton.  Six percent are undecided.  In December, 89% of Republicans supported Christie compared with 6% for Clinton.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Independent voters divide.  40% would support Clinton, and 40% would back Christie.  19% are undecided.  When this question was previously reported, a majority — 52% — backed Clinton while 40% were for Christie.  Eight percent, then, were undecided.

There is a gender gap.  While a majority of women would support Clinton, men divide.  Among women, 56% back Clinton while 33% are for Christie.  11% are undecided.  Among men, 44% are for Clinton compared with 42% for Christie.  15% are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Half of Americans View Clinton Favorably… Christie Still Unknown to More than Four in Ten

50% of adults nationally have a favorable view of Clinton.  However, 38% have an unfavorable impression of her.  12% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  When it comes to Chris Christie, 28% of Americans have a favorable view of him while 30% have an unfavorable one.  A notable 42% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

How do Americans currently rate President Barack Obama?  Nearly half of residents — 48% — have an unfavorable impression of the president while 41% have a favorable one.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Looking at registered voters, there is no difference.  48% have an unfavorable view of President Obama while 41% have a favorable view of him.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In December, a slim majority of registered voters — 52% — had an unfavorable opinion of the president while 46% had a favorable one.  Three percent, at that time, had either never heard of Mr. Obama or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

12/11: Clinton and Christie Neck and Neck in Hypothetical 2016 Matchup, but Clinton Bests Other Republican Hopefuls

December 11, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Hillary Clinton would be the front-runner against a host of potential Republican challengers by double digits.  However, there is one exception.  She and Chris Christie would be locked in a close contest, separated by just three percentage points.

Click Here for Complete December 11, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Democrats divide about whether they want a nominee who will continue the policies of President Obama or move in a different direction although strong Democrats still want a nominee who will follow in Obama’s footsteps,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Most Republicans still want a nominee who will stand on conservative principles rather than one who may appeal to more moderate voters.” 

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

  • Clinton receives 48% to 45% for Chris Christie.  Seven percent are undecided.  In July, Clinton was ahead of Christie by six percentage points, 47% to 41%.  12% were undecided.
  • When matched against Marco Rubio, 52% back Clinton compared with 42% for Rubio.  Five percent are undecided.  In the summer, half of voters — 50% — were for Clinton compared with 38% for Rubio.  12% were undecided.
  • Clinton also has majority support — 53% — when she faces Jeb Bush — 41%.  Six percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 48% were for Clinton compared with 40% for Bush.  12%, at that time, were undecided.
  • Against Rand Paul, Clinton has 55% to 40% for Paul.  Five percent are undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s July survey, 50% were for Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  11% were undecided.
  • Against Paul Ryan, Clinton leads by 16 percentage points.  56% of voters support Clinton compared with 40% for Ryan.  Four percent are undecided.  Five months ago, 53% were for Clinton compared with 37% for Ryan.  Nine percent, then, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 58% — outpaces Rick Perry — 37% — by more than 20 percentage points.  Five percent are undecided.  In July, 52% were for Clinton compared with 36% for Perry.  12% were undecided.
  • When Clinton faces off against Ted Cruz, she garners 57% of the vote to 35% for Cruz.  Seven percent are undecided.
  • Clinton — 59% — outdistances Palin — 36% — by 23 percentage points.  Four percent are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Perry

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Palin

Clinton Clear Democratic Front-runner…Christie Edges Competitors in Crowded GOP Field 

What are the chances that Clinton would receive her party’s nomination?  If she were to declare her candidacy and the primary were held today, Clinton is a strong favorite outdistancing her closest Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, by more than five to one.  However, if Clinton were to sit out 2016, Joe Biden defeats his closest competitor, Elizabeth Warren by double digits.

Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 65% Hillary Clinton
  • 12% Joe Biden
  •   9% Elizabeth Warren
  •   3% Andrew Cuomo
  •   1% Martin O’Malley
  •   9% undecided

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 63% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents supported Clinton.  13% backed Biden, and 6% were for Cuomo.  One percent supported O’Malley, and 18%, at that time, were undecided.

How would the contest look if Hillary Clinton decided not to run?  Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 45% Joe Biden
  • 25% Elizabeth Warren
  • 11% Andrew Cuomo
  •   4% Martin O’Malley
  • 15% undecided

When it comes to the future of the Democratic Party, 49% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents think it’s more important to have a candidate who will continue the policies of President Barack Obama.  46% prefer a nominee who will move in a different direction.  Four percent are unsure.  However, two-thirds of strong Democrats — 67% — want a nominee who will build upon the Obama presidency compared with only 37% of soft Democrats who share this view.  In McClatchy-Marist’s July  survey, 46% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents said it was more important for the nominee to advance the policies of Mr. Obama while 44% wanted a candidate who would shift gears.  10%, at that time, were undecided.

Looking at the bid for the Republican nomination, in this hypothetical contest, Chris Christie is ahead of his closest competitor, Rand Paul, by six percentage points.  Others follow closely behind.

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 18% Chris Christie
  • 12% Rand Paul
  • 11% Paul Ryan
  • 10% Ted Cruz
  • 10% Jeb Bush
  •   8% Sarah Palin
  •   7% Marco Rubio
  •   4% Scott Walker
  •   4% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  • 13% undecided

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 15% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents were for Christie compared with 13% for Paul Ryan.  12% were behind Rubio while Jeb Bush garnered 10%.  Nine percent supported Rand Paul while Cruz received the backing of 7%.  Perry had 4% while Walker and Santorum each garnered 2%.  One percent supported Bobby Jindal, and an additional 1% backed Susana Martinez.  One in four — 25% — was undecided.

A Republican nominee who stands on conservative principles is more important than one who can win, according to 67% of Republicans and Republican leading independents.  However, more than three in ten — 31% — say the priority should be a candidate who can win the White House.  Two percent are unsure.  Similar proportions shared these views in July.  At that time, 64% thought it was more important for the nominee to reflect GOP principles while 31% preferred a strong candidate who could defeat his or her Democratic opponent.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus without Hillary Clinton

Table: Priority for Democratic Presidential Nominee:  the Same or Different Vision as President Obama

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Republican Presidential Nominee:  Conservative Principles or Electability

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

12/10: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, is there a clear front-runner?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

 

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

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