4/16: Clinton with Majority Support against GOP Hopefuls

If Hillary Clinton were to enter the presidential contest, she would be the front-runner with a strong lead against her possible Republican rivals.  Her closest opponent, Paul Ryan, trails Clinton by 8 percentage points among registered voters nationally.  Clinton outpaces her other potential GOP rivals by double digits.

Click Here for Complete April 16, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Hillary Clinton is very popular among Democrats and may have smooth sailing to the Democratic nomination,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “She currently dominates a crowded Republican field and continues to break 50% against each of her possible GOP rivals.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates: 

  • 51% support Clinton compared with 43% for Ryan.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton — 52% — led Ryan — 44% — by the same margin in February’s McClatchy-Marist Poll.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Against Chris Christie, Clinton receives 53% to 42% for Christie.  Five percent are undecided.  However, Clinton outpaced Christie by 21 percentage points in February.  At that time, 58% of registered voters, then, backed Clinton while 37% supported Christie.  Six percent were undecided.
  • 53% of voters support Clinton while 40% are behind Mike Huckabee.  Six percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 55% were for Clinton while 41% were behind Huckabee.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 54% — also has the advantage against Rand Paul — 40%.  Six percent are undecided.  In that previous McClatchy-Marist Poll, 58% were for Clinton while 38% were for Paul.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 54% — outdistances Ted Cruz — 39% — by 15 percentage points.  Seven percent are undecided.  Two months ago, 56% of voters were behind Clinton while 39% supported Cruz.  Five percent, then, were undecided.
  • When matched against Jeb Bush, Clinton leads Bush, 55% to 39%.  Six percent are undecided.  In February, Clinton received 58% to 38% for Bush.  Four percent were undecided.
  • Clinton garners 54% to 38% for Marco Rubio.  Eight percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 58% of voters supported Clinton while 37% backed Rubio.  Four percent were undecided.
  • Clinton — 56% — does the best against Joe Scarborough — 35%.  Here, she leads Scarborough by 21 percentage points.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Scarborough

Majority with Favorable View of Clinton…Christie and Bush Upside Down

52% of registered voters nationally have a positive opinion of Clinton, including 81% of Democrats.  43% have an unfavorable view of her, including 78% of Republicans.  Five percent have either never heard of Clinton or are unsure how to rate her.  Independent voters divide.  49% of these voters like Hillary Clinton and 46% do not.  There has been no change on this question since February when identical proportions of registered voters had these views.  52%, at that time, thought well of Clinton, 43% had an unfavorable opinion of her, and 5% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Voters’ impressions of Christie and Bush are upside down.  44% of voters have a negative view of Christie while 36% have a positive impression of him.  One in five — 20% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Two months ago, 46% had an unfavorable opinion of Christie, and 33% thought well of him.  21% had either never heard of Christie or were unsure how to rate him.

Looking at Bush’s favorable rating, 42% have an unfavorable impression of him.  However, 31% like Bush.  27% have either never heard of Jeb Bush or are unsure how to rate him.

Close to two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — have either never heard of Scarborough or are unsure how to rate him.  21% have a negative view of the former congressman and morning show host while 14% have a positive impression of Scarborough.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability (Over Time)

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability (Over Time)

Table: Jeb Bush Favorability

Table: Joe Scarborough Favorability

No Clear Leader of the GOP Pack

None of the potential Republican contenders for president has emerged as the front-runner.  2016 for the GOP is an open contest with no one having established an early advantage.

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:

  • 13% Mike Huckabee
  • 13% Jeb Bush
  • 12% Rand Paul
  • 12% Chris Christie
  • 12% Paul Ryan
  •   7% Marco Rubio
  •   5% Scott Walker
  •   4% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Bobby Jindal
  •   3% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  • <1% John Kasich
  • 14% undecided

In February’s McClatchy-Marist Poll, Christie and Huckabee each received the support of 13% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  12% backed Rubio while 9% were for Paul.  Another 9% supported Ryan.  Bush and Sarah Palin each garnered the support of 8% of Republicans.  Seven percent were behind Walker, and 5% backed Cruz.  Perry and Santorum each had 2%, and Kasich garnered 1%.  12%, at that time, were undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/15: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to 2016, what would Hillary Clinton’s electoral chances be if she decided to run for president?  Is there a clear front-runner among the potential Republican candidates?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

2/12: Clinton Breaks 50% against GOP Rivals for 2016

February 12, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

If Hillary Clinton were to run for president in 2016 and win her party’s nomination, a majority of registered voters nationally would support Clinton, regardless of her Republican opponent.  Her closest competitor is Paul Ryan who Clinton leads by single digits.  Clinton has a similar lead when up against former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Click Here for Complete February 12, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Voters are still a long way from making choices,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, right now, Clinton is in a league of her own.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

  • Clinton — 52% — leads Paul Ryan — 44% — by 8 percentage points.  Four percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in December, Clinton received 56% to 40% for Ryan.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 53% — is also ahead of Romney — 44% — by single digits.  Three percent are undecided.
  • Against Mike Huckabee, Clinton opens up a double-digit lead.  Here, 55% of voters are for Clinton compared with 41% for Huckabee.  Four percent are undecided.
  • Clinton — 56% — has a seventeen percentage point advantage over Ted Cruz — 39%.  Five percent are undecided.  In December, Clinton received 57% to 35% for Cruz.  Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton also outpaces Jeb Bush by 20 percentage points.  58% of voters nationally support Clinton compared with 38% for Bush.  Four percent are undecided.  In December, Clinton had 53% while Bush received 41%.  Six percent, then, were undecided.
  • When matched against Rand Paul, Clinton leads by 20 percentage points.  A majority — 58% — supports Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  Four percent are undecided.  In that previous McClatchy-Marist survey, 55% backed Clinton while 40% were for Paul.  Five percent were undecided.
  • Against Chris Christie, Clinton — 58% — outdistances Christie — 37% — by 21 percentage points.  Six percent are undecided.  When this question was reported in January, 50% of voters were for Clinton while 37% were for Christie.  12% were undecided.
  • Nearly six in ten voters — 58% — support Clinton compared with 37% for Marco Rubio.  Four percent are undecided.  In December, 52% backed Clinton while 42% supported Rubio.  Five percent were undecided.
  • Against Sarah Palin, Clinton receives 62% to 35% for Palin.  Three percent are undecided.  Two months ago, 59% were behind Clinton compared with 36% for Palin.  Four percent were undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Romney

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Palin

Favorably Speaking?

A majority of registered voters — 52% — has a favorable view of Clinton.  43% have an unfavorable impression of her, and 5% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In January, 51% of voters thought well of Clinton.  39% had a lesser view of her, and 10% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Half of Americans, including a slim majority of voters, give Clinton high marks for her tenure as Secretary of State.  50% of adults approve of the job she did.  This includes 18% who think she did an excellent job and 32% who believe she did a good one.  28% rate her performance as fair while 19% give her poor marks.  Three percent are unsure.  Among registered voters, 51% of voters think highly of the job Clinton did as Secretary of State.  26% report she did an average job while 20% say she fell short.  Three percent of voters are unsure.

Romney’s favorability is upside down.  51% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney while 43% have a favorable one.  Six percent have either never heard of Romney or are unsure how to rate him.

Christie’s favorable rating is also more negative than positive.  A plurality of voters — 46% — has an unfavorable view of him.  33% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of Christie or are unsure how to rate him.  Fewer voters are unsure about Christie’s image, to his detriment.  In January, 32% of voters had a negative view of Christie.  29% had a positive one, and 39% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Americans’ opinions regarding Christie’s involvement in the George Washington Bridge controversy have flipped.  46% of adults nationally currently say Christie is not telling the truth while 42% think he is.  12% are unsure.  In January, 44% of Americans reported Christie was being mostly truthful while 33% thought Christie was not being completely honest.  23%, then, were unsure.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Hillary Clinton Approval Rating as Secretary of State

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Telling the Truth about the George Washington Bridge Controversy?

Crowded Field for 2016 GOP Nomination

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:

  • 13% Chris Christie
  • 13% Mike Huckabee
  • 12% Marco Rubio
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   9% Paul Ryan
  •   8% Jeb Bush
  •   8% Sarah Palin
  •   7% Scott Walker
  •   5% Ted Cruz
  •   2% Rick Perry
  •   2% Rick Santorum
  •   1% John Kasich
  • 12% undecided

“The Democrats may have a clear front-runner in Hillary Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, front-runner is not the word you would use to describe the GOP field.”

When this question was last reported in January, Christie had the support of 16%, 12% backed Ryan while 9% were for Paul.  Bush had the support of 8%, and 7% were for Rubio.  Six percent backed Perry, and Santorum and Cruz each received 5%.  Four percent were for Scott Walker while 3% were behind Bobby Jindal.  One in four — 25% — was undecided.

Which candidate would be the second choice of Republican and Republican leaning independents without Christie and Palin in the contest?  Here is how the race stands among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents:

  • 15% Marco Rubio
  • 15% Mike Huckabee
  • 13% Paul Ryan
  • 12% Jeb Bush
  • 11% Rand Paul
  •   8% Scott Walker
  •   6% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  •   1% John Kasich
  • 14% undecided

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus (Second Choice)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

2/11: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to 2016, if Hillary Clinton were to seek the Presidency and receive her party’s nomination, how would she fare against potential Republican opponents?  Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie still a formidable candidate?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist poll.

©istockphoto/MCCAIG

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

1/15: NBC News/Marist Poll: Are New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s Political Plans Bottlenecked?

January 15, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Has New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s image suffered nationally because of the controversy surrounding his administration’s role in the traffic tie-ups on the George Washington Bridge in September of last year?  According to this NBC News/Marist Poll, while 69% of Americans say the political uproar has not had any effect on their opinion of Christie, close to one in five — 18% — likes him less because of it.  Five percent like him more, and 8% are unsure.  Among Americans who have heard about the bridge controversy, 24% say their dislike for Christie has grown.

Click Here for Complete January 15, 2014 USA NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“The question is can Chris Christie weather this political storm, or is this another in a list of considerable hurdles he will need to overcome if he wants to make a run for the White House,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

By party:

  • Nearly seven in ten Republicans — 69% — report the political brouhaha has had no impact on how they view Christie.  However, 16% like him less.  Only 8% like him more, and 7% are unsure.
  • Among Democrats, 61% report the issue has had no impact on their opinion of Christie.  However, 28% say they like him less, and just 3% like him more.  Eight percent are unsure.
  • Looking at independent voters, 73% report the issue has had no effect on their impression of Christie.  Still, 17% like him less, and 5% like him more.  Five percent are unsure.

A plurality of Americans believes New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s assertion that he played no role in creating traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge for political retribution.  44% of adults nationally say Christie is mostly telling the truth that he had no knowledge of the events that led up to the traffic tie-ups.  However, a notable 33% report he is mostly not telling the truth, and an additional 23% are unsure.

Americans who have heard about the bridge controversy are more likely to think Christie is being honest.  A majority of these Americans — 52% — thinks Christie is telling the truth compared with 34% who believe he is not.  15% are unsure.

By party:

  • While 61% of Republicans think Christie is mostly telling the truth, 20% believe he is not being forthright.  19% are unsure.
  • Not surprisingly, a plurality of Democrats — 41% — says Christie is not telling the whole truth.  However, 34% report he is being honest with the public.  24% are unsure.
  • Nearly half of independent voters — 47% — think Christie is telling the truth while 31% say he is not.   23% are unsure.

Do Americans know that members of Christie’s staff have been implicated in creating these traffic jams?  Slightly more than seven in ten residents — 71% — have at least some knowledge of the political scandal.  This includes 39% of Americans who know a lot about the story and 32% who have some awareness of the controversy.  30% report they know nothing about the issue.  Do Americans think Governor Christie is a bully or a strong leader?  Nearly half — 47% — say he comes across as a strong leader while 27% describe him as a bully.  26% are unsure.

By party:

  • About seven in ten Republicans nationally — 71% — consider Christie to be a strong leader.  11% call him a bully, and 18% are unsure.
  • There is little consensus among Democrats.  38% say he is a bully while 36% think he comes across as a strong leader.  27% are unsure.
  • 47% of independent voters think Christie is a strong leader while 26% believe he is a bully.  27% are unsure.

Table: Has the George Washington Bridge Controversy Made You Like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie More or Less?

Table: Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Telling the Truth about the George Washington Bridge Controversy?

Table: Awareness of the George Washington Bridge Traffic Controversy

Table: Does New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Come Across as a Bully or Strong Leader?

No Clear Front-runner in Crowded GOP Field… One in Four Undecided

There has been much speculation about whether or not Christie will seek the Republican nomination for president in 2016.  How would Christie fare against his potential GOP opponents?

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 16% Chris Christie
  • 12% Paul Ryan
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   8% Jeb Bush
  •   7% Marco Rubio
  •   6% Rick Perry
  •   5% Rick Santorum
  •   5% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Scott Walker
  •   3% Bobby Jindal
  • 25% undecided 

When Marist last reported this question in December, Christie had the support of 18% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  Paul received the backing of 12% while Ryan — 11%, Cruz — 10%, and Bush — 10% followed closely behind.  Sarah Palin garnered 8%, and Rubio had the backing of 7%.  At the time, Walker and Santorum each received 4% while 3% supported Perry.  13%, then, were undecided.

How would the GOP contest look without Christie in the mix?  Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands without Governor Chris Christie:

  • 15% Paul Ryan
  • 11% Rand Paul
  • 11% Jeb Bush
  • 10% Marco Rubio
  •   7% Rick Santorum
  •   6% Ted Cruz
  •   6% Rick Perry
  •   5% Scott Walker
  •   4% Bobby Jindal
  • 26% undecided

“The Republican field for 2016 clearly lacks a front-runner with or without Chris Christie,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus without Chris Christie

Clinton Widens Lead over Christie in Hypothetical Contest

If Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie were to face off in the 2016 presidential election, Clinton would defeat Christie by double digits.  Half of registered voters — 50% — would support Clinton compared with 37% for Christie.  12% are undecided.  When Marist last reported this question in December, voters divided.  48% supported Clinton while 45% were behind Christie.  Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

  • Most Democrats — 90% — would support Clinton compared with 3% for Christie.  Seven percent are undecided.  Last month, 85% were for Clinton while Christie garnered 10%.  Five percent were undecided.
  • More than three in four Republicans — 78% — would cast their ballot for Christie compared with 16% for Clinton.  Six percent are undecided.  In December, 89% of Republicans supported Christie compared with 6% for Clinton.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Independent voters divide.  40% would support Clinton, and 40% would back Christie.  19% are undecided.  When this question was previously reported, a majority — 52% — backed Clinton while 40% were for Christie.  Eight percent, then, were undecided.

There is a gender gap.  While a majority of women would support Clinton, men divide.  Among women, 56% back Clinton while 33% are for Christie.  11% are undecided.  Among men, 44% are for Clinton compared with 42% for Christie.  15% are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Half of Americans View Clinton Favorably… Christie Still Unknown to More than Four in Ten

50% of adults nationally have a favorable view of Clinton.  However, 38% have an unfavorable impression of her.  12% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  When it comes to Chris Christie, 28% of Americans have a favorable view of him while 30% have an unfavorable one.  A notable 42% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

How do Americans currently rate President Barack Obama?  Nearly half of residents — 48% — have an unfavorable impression of the president while 41% have a favorable one.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Looking at registered voters, there is no difference.  48% have an unfavorable view of President Obama while 41% have a favorable view of him.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In December, a slim majority of registered voters — 52% — had an unfavorable opinion of the president while 46% had a favorable one.  Three percent, at that time, had either never heard of Mr. Obama or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

12/11: Clinton and Christie Neck and Neck in Hypothetical 2016 Matchup, but Clinton Bests Other Republican Hopefuls

December 11, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Hillary Clinton would be the front-runner against a host of potential Republican challengers by double digits.  However, there is one exception.  She and Chris Christie would be locked in a close contest, separated by just three percentage points.

Click Here for Complete December 11, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Democrats divide about whether they want a nominee who will continue the policies of President Obama or move in a different direction although strong Democrats still want a nominee who will follow in Obama’s footsteps,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Most Republicans still want a nominee who will stand on conservative principles rather than one who may appeal to more moderate voters.” 

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

  • Clinton receives 48% to 45% for Chris Christie.  Seven percent are undecided.  In July, Clinton was ahead of Christie by six percentage points, 47% to 41%.  12% were undecided.
  • When matched against Marco Rubio, 52% back Clinton compared with 42% for Rubio.  Five percent are undecided.  In the summer, half of voters — 50% — were for Clinton compared with 38% for Rubio.  12% were undecided.
  • Clinton also has majority support — 53% — when she faces Jeb Bush — 41%.  Six percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 48% were for Clinton compared with 40% for Bush.  12%, at that time, were undecided.
  • Against Rand Paul, Clinton has 55% to 40% for Paul.  Five percent are undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s July survey, 50% were for Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  11% were undecided.
  • Against Paul Ryan, Clinton leads by 16 percentage points.  56% of voters support Clinton compared with 40% for Ryan.  Four percent are undecided.  Five months ago, 53% were for Clinton compared with 37% for Ryan.  Nine percent, then, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 58% — outpaces Rick Perry — 37% — by more than 20 percentage points.  Five percent are undecided.  In July, 52% were for Clinton compared with 36% for Perry.  12% were undecided.
  • When Clinton faces off against Ted Cruz, she garners 57% of the vote to 35% for Cruz.  Seven percent are undecided.
  • Clinton — 59% — outdistances Palin — 36% — by 23 percentage points.  Four percent are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Perry

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Palin

Clinton Clear Democratic Front-runner…Christie Edges Competitors in Crowded GOP Field 

What are the chances that Clinton would receive her party’s nomination?  If she were to declare her candidacy and the primary were held today, Clinton is a strong favorite outdistancing her closest Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, by more than five to one.  However, if Clinton were to sit out 2016, Joe Biden defeats his closest competitor, Elizabeth Warren by double digits.

Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 65% Hillary Clinton
  • 12% Joe Biden
  •   9% Elizabeth Warren
  •   3% Andrew Cuomo
  •   1% Martin O’Malley
  •   9% undecided

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 63% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents supported Clinton.  13% backed Biden, and 6% were for Cuomo.  One percent supported O’Malley, and 18%, at that time, were undecided.

How would the contest look if Hillary Clinton decided not to run?  Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 45% Joe Biden
  • 25% Elizabeth Warren
  • 11% Andrew Cuomo
  •   4% Martin O’Malley
  • 15% undecided

When it comes to the future of the Democratic Party, 49% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents think it’s more important to have a candidate who will continue the policies of President Barack Obama.  46% prefer a nominee who will move in a different direction.  Four percent are unsure.  However, two-thirds of strong Democrats — 67% — want a nominee who will build upon the Obama presidency compared with only 37% of soft Democrats who share this view.  In McClatchy-Marist’s July  survey, 46% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents said it was more important for the nominee to advance the policies of Mr. Obama while 44% wanted a candidate who would shift gears.  10%, at that time, were undecided.

Looking at the bid for the Republican nomination, in this hypothetical contest, Chris Christie is ahead of his closest competitor, Rand Paul, by six percentage points.  Others follow closely behind.

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 18% Chris Christie
  • 12% Rand Paul
  • 11% Paul Ryan
  • 10% Ted Cruz
  • 10% Jeb Bush
  •   8% Sarah Palin
  •   7% Marco Rubio
  •   4% Scott Walker
  •   4% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  • 13% undecided

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 15% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents were for Christie compared with 13% for Paul Ryan.  12% were behind Rubio while Jeb Bush garnered 10%.  Nine percent supported Rand Paul while Cruz received the backing of 7%.  Perry had 4% while Walker and Santorum each garnered 2%.  One percent supported Bobby Jindal, and an additional 1% backed Susana Martinez.  One in four — 25% — was undecided.

A Republican nominee who stands on conservative principles is more important than one who can win, according to 67% of Republicans and Republican leading independents.  However, more than three in ten — 31% — say the priority should be a candidate who can win the White House.  Two percent are unsure.  Similar proportions shared these views in July.  At that time, 64% thought it was more important for the nominee to reflect GOP principles while 31% preferred a strong candidate who could defeat his or her Democratic opponent.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus without Hillary Clinton

Table: Priority for Democratic Presidential Nominee:  the Same or Different Vision as President Obama

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Republican Presidential Nominee:  Conservative Principles or Electability

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

12/10: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, is there a clear front-runner?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

 

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

11/26: Cuomo Well-Positioned to Launch Re-Election Bid

November 26, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo is a strong, early favorite to win re-election as he heads into 2014.  When matched against several potential Republican gubernatorial candidates, Cuomo leads each of them by at least 40 percentage points.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

“Right now, Governor Cuomo is in good shape to win a second term.  None of Governor Cuomo’s likely challengers are in striking distance,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, voters think any plans Cuomo might have for 2016 need to take a backseat until Hillary Clinton declares her intentions.”

Click Here for Complete November 26, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

If the 2014 election for New York State Governor were held today, here is how Governor Cuomo would fare among registered voters in New York State:

  • Against Steve McLaughlin, Cuomo would garner 64% while McLaughlin would receive 24%.  12% are undecided.
  • 65% would back Cuomo compared with 23% for Rob Astorino.  12% are undecided.
  • If Cuomo were to face off in a rematch against Carl Paladino, Cuomo — 67% — would defeat Paladino — 24% — by 43 percentage points.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • 70% of registered voters would support Cuomo in a contest against Donald Trump — 24%.  Seven percent are undecided.

A majority of registered voters in New York State — 52% — approves of the job the governor is doing.  This includes 8% of voters who think Cuomo is doing an excellent job and 44% who describe Cuomo’s job performance as good.  31% give Cuomo fair marks while 13% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 54% of registered voters approved of how Mr. Cuomo was performing in office.  27% rated his job as fair while 14% believed his performance was subpar.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

By party:

  • Cuomo’s approval rating is strong among his base.  63% of Democrats statewide think well of how Cuomo is doing his job.  This compares with 66% in April.
  • Among Republicans, 39% approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  This is little changed from the spring when 37% had this view.
  • Cuomo’s approval rating has changed little among non-enrolled voters.  48% of these voters approve of Cuomo’s job performance compared with 46% in April.

By region:

  • New York voters’ rating of Cuomo has changed little throughout the state.
  • In New York City, 56% of voters give Cuomo high marks.  A similar 58% had this opinion in the previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll.
  • In the suburbs of New York City, 57% applaud Cuomo’s job performance.  Here, too, Cuomo’s approval rating is status quo.  59% of suburban voters thought this way in April.
  • A plurality of upstate voters — 47% — approve of how Governor Cuomo is doing his job.  This is comparable to the 48% in this region who said the same in the spring. 

Cuomo also continues to be well-liked in New York State.  Two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — have a favorable view of the governor.  28% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 6% have either never heard of Cuomo or are unsure how to rate him.  In April, similar proportions of registered voters shared these views.  65% had a positive view of Cuomo.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 8% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/McLaughlin

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Astorino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Paladino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Trump

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Cuomo Viewed as Making Positive Mark on Albany and Focused on Empire State

About six in ten registered voters in New York State — 61% — think Cuomo is changing the way things in Albany work for the better.  35% do not think the governor is improving Albany, and 4% are unsure.  In April, 58% of voters thought Governor Cuomo was positively changing state government.  33% had the opposite view, and 9% were unsure.

Is Cuomo paying too much attention to national politics and not enough attention to the Empire State?  59% do not think he is focused on the national agenda while 35% say he is.  Six percent are unsure.  In the spring, 51% of voters believed Cuomo’s attention was focused on New York while 40% thought he was too concerned with national politics.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

What are voters’ perceptions of Cuomo’s political ideology?  45% say he is a moderate.  35% think he is a liberal while 11% believe he is a conservative.  Nine percent are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 38% described Cuomo as a moderate.  34% said he was a liberal, and 13% reported he was conservative.  15%, then, were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Attention to National Politics

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

2016: Cuomo Trails Clinton by 50 Points Among Dems, but Both Lead Christie 

If Cuomo were to turn to the national stage and run for president of the United States in 2016, what would his electoral chances look like?  In this hypothetical contest for the Democratic nomination, among New York State registered Democrats, Cuomo comes in a very distant second behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  Clinton leads all of her potential Democratic opponents by more than four to one in New York.

64% of registered Democrats statewide support Clinton compared with 14% for Andrew Cuomo.  Eight percent back Vice President Joe Biden while Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren garners 6%.  Three percent support Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and 5% are undecided.

On the Republican side, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie leads a crowded GOP primary field.  Among registered Republicans in New York State, Christie has the backing of 40%.  10% are for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul while the same proportion — 10% — supports Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has the support of 8% compared with 5% for Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.  Texas Governor Rick Perry, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker each garners 3%.  New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has the backing of 2%.  An additional 2% support former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.  15% are undecided.

However, when matched against Cuomo or Clinton in the general election contest, Christie does not fare as well in this very blue state.  Cuomo leads Christie, 51% to 44%, among New York’s registered voters.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton has a wider lead over Christie.  57% of registered voters in New York State support Clinton compared with 39% for Christie.  Four percent are undecided.

Table: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary (NYS Democrats)

Table: 2016 Republican Presidential Primary (NYS Republicans)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Cuomo/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Clinton/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Voters Don’t Blame Cuomo for State’s Sluggish Economy 

67% of registered voters think Governor Cuomo inherited the state’s economic woes while 27% say the condition of the economy is a result of his policies.  Five percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist last reported this question, 74% thought Cuomo inherited New York’s economic slump while 17% said the state’s economic conditions are mostly a result of his own policies.  Nine percent were unsure.

Looking at how New York’s economy is performing, a slim majority of registered voters in New York — 51% — say it has stayed about the same.  This compares with 20% who report it has gotten better, and 29% who say it has gotten worse.  In April, nearly identical proportions shared these views.  51% thought New York’s economy was steady state.  21% said it was getting better, and 29% believed it was getting worse.

On the personal side, 52% of New York voters believe their personal family finances will not change in the coming year. 31% think they will get better while 17% believe they will get worse.  In March, 56% said their money matters would be steady state.  25% thought they would improve while 19% said they would decline.

Table: New York State Economic Conditions Inherited or Result of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Policies

Table: New York State Economy

Table: New York State Economy Over Time

 

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year Over Time

Opposition to Hydrofracking Grows

On the issue of hydrofracking, 47% of adults in New York oppose hydrofracking at the Marcellus Shale to extract natural gas.  37% support this technique, and 16% are unsure.  When this question was last reported in March, 39% opposed hydrofracking while 40% supported it.  21%, at that time, were unsure.

The views of registered voters mirror those of New Yorkers overall.  49% are against using hydrofracking while 39% support it. 12% are unsure.  In March, voters divided.  41% opposed hydrofracking, and 40% supported it.  One in five — 20% — was unsure.

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Adults)

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Registered Voters)

State Senate and Assembly Approval Ratings Still in the Basement

While a majority of voters approve of Governor Cuomo’s job performance, the New York State Senate and Assembly do not fare as well.  Only 27% of registered voters in New York State approve of the job the Senate is doing.  Included here are 2% who say they are doing an excellent job and 25% who think they are doing a good one.  47% rate the legislative body’s performance as fair.  22% report they are doing a poor job, and 4% have either never heard of the Senate or are unsure how to rate it.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last released this question in April, 29% gave the Senate high marks.  41% thought its performance was average, and 26% said it fell short.  Four percent, at that time, either never heard of it or were unsure how to rate it.

When it comes to the New York State Assembly, 26% think it is doing either an excellent — 2% — or good — 24% — job in office.  47% rate this legislative body’s performance as fair while 23% report its job is subpar.  Four percent are unsure.

In that previous survey, 27% of voters thought highly of how the Assembly was performing its job.  42% gave it mediocre marks while 24% said it was performing poorly.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Half Say State Moving in Right Direction 

50% of registered voters think New York State is traveling on the right course.  45%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong direction, and 5% are unsure.  In April, 53% of voters said the Empire State was on the right course.  41% believed it was off track.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS Over Time

Steady State for Schumer and Gillibrand

A majority of voters continue to give Chuck Schumer a positive rating for his performance as senator.  56% of registered voters in New York State approve of how Schumer is doing his job.  This includes 17% who say Schumer is doing an excellent job and 39% who think he is doing a good one.  26% rate Schumer’s performance in office as fair while 15% say he is doing a poor job.  Four percent have either never heard of Schumer or are unsure how to rate him.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 58% praised Schumer.  24% thought he did an average job, and 13% said he fell short.  Six percent, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

There has also been little change in the perception of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance.  47% think Gillibrand is doing either an excellent — 13% — or good — 34% — job.  30% give Gillibrand fair marks while 12% say she is performing poorly in her post.  12% have either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

In April, 48% approved of Gillibrand’s job performance.  27% gave her average grades while 9% said she performed poorly.  17% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

Obama Approval Rating at Lowest Point in New York State

Four in ten registered voters — 40% — approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  This is Obama’s lowest approval rating in New York since taking office.  Included in Mr. Obama’s approval rating are 11% who think he is doing an excellent job and 29% who believe he is doing a good one.  25% give him fair marks while 36% rate the president’s job performance as poor.  Less than 1% has either never heard of Obama or are unsure how to rate him.

The president’s approval rating has plummeted.  In April, 52% gave the president high marks.  22% thought his job performance was average while 26% said he fell short.  One percent, at that time, had either never heard of Obama or was unsure how to rate him.

Table: Obama Approval Rating

Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

7/24: A Look at the 2016 Presidential Contest

If former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were to announce a candidacy for the Presidency, she would be the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.  Clinton outdistances her closest potential opponent, Vice President Joe Biden, by almost five-to-one in a hypothetical contest.  New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley each receives single-digit support.  On the Republican side, there is no clear frontrunner among the pack of potential candidates.

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Click Here for Complete July 24, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

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“Get ready for round two of Hillary Clinton as the inevitable,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The big question is whether she runs.”

 Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 63% Hillary Clinton
  • 13% Joe Biden
  •   6% Andrew Cuomo
  •   1% Martin O’Malley
  • 18% undecided

Do Democrats and Democratic leaning independents want a nominee who will continue President Obama’s policies, or would they rather a nominee who will move in another direction?  They divide.  46% believe it is more important to have a nominee who will move President Obama’s policies forward while 44% want someone with a new vision.  10% are unsure.

Looking at the Republican contest, among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 15% Chris Christie
  • 13% Paul Ryan
  • 12% Marco Rubio
  • 10% Jeb Bush
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   7% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Rick Perry
  •   2% Rick Santorum
  •   2% Scott Walker
  •   1% Bobby Jindal
  •   1% Susana Martinez
  •   25% undecided

“In a crowded field, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is at the top of the list,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “None of the potential Republican candidates who appeal to the more activist base of the party have broken free of the pack.”

By more than two-to-one, Republicans and Republican leaning independents would prefer a Republican nominee who stands on conservative principles rather than one who can win.  Nearly two-thirds — 64% — think it is more important to have a candidate who stands firmly on Republican ground.  This compares with 31% who believe the priority should be nominating a candidate who can defeat his or her Democratic opponent.  Five percent are unsure.

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Democratic Presidential Nominee:  the Same or Different Vision as President Obama

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Republican Presidential Nominee:  Conservative Principles or Electability

Clinton Leads GOP Opponents in Potential 2016 General Election Matchups

Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner not only for her party’s nomination but also against the leading Republican presidential wannabes for 2016.  Chris Christie and Jeb Bush run the most competitively against Clinton yet she still leads Christie by 6 percentage points and Bush by 8. She outdistances her other possible Republican opponents by double-digits.

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

  • Clinton — 47% — leads Chris Christie — 41% — by 6 percentage points.  12% are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, Clinton — 46% — and Christie — 43% — were neck and neck.  11% were undecided.
  • Against Bush, Clinton is ahead by 8 percentage points.  Here, Clinton receives 48% to 40% for Bush.  12% are undecided.  In April, Clinton — 54% — led Bush — 38% — by 16 percentage points.  Eight percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • In a contest against Rubio, Clinton has a 12 percentage point advantage.  She receives the support of 50% of registered voters compared with 38% for Rubio.  12% are undecided.  Little has changed on this question.  Clinton — 52% — outpaced Rubio — 40% — in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.
  • When matched against Paul, 50% of voters are for Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  11% are undecided.  In April, 52% were for Clinton while 41% were for Paul.  Seven percent were undecided.
  • 53% of voters support Clinton when matched against Ryan — 37%.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • Clinton — 52% — also outdistances Perry — 36%.  12% are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Perry

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

7/23: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential contest, would Hillary Clinton be the inevitable Democratic nominee if she were to throw her hat into the ring?  Is there a potential Republican candidate who could pose a serious threat to her?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

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