5/1: IN: Trump Leads, Clinton and Sanders Close

In the quest for the Republican nomination, businessman Donald Trump, 49%, is ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 34%, by 15 points among likely Republican primary voters in Indiana.  Ohio Governor John Kasich trails far behind with 13%.  Trump has the advantage among many key demographic groups.  He especially outdistances his opponents among likely Republican primary voters who self-identify as moderate or conservative, those who are over 45, without a college education, or who are men.  Cruz does best among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves as very conservative.

59% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference report they strongly support their choice of candidate.  66% of Trump’s backers compared with 56% of Cruz’s supporters and 40% of those for Kasich say they are firmly committed to their candidate selection.

When it comes to the second choice of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, 39% select Kasich followed by Cruz, 31%, and Trump, 18%.

Last week, Cruz and Kasich announced they would team up to defeat Donald Trump in Indiana.  However, 63% of likely Republican primary voters say the alliance is not a factor in deciding their vote, including 63% of Trump’s supporters, 66% of Cruz’s backers, and 53% of likely GOP voters for Kasich.  37% say it is a factor, including 22% who say it is a major factor and 15% who report it is a minor factor.

58% of likely Republican primary voters say they disapprove of the deal between Cruz and Kasich to stop Trump at all costs and think it is further proof that the Republicans are trying to rig the game against Trump.  34% of likely GOP voters approve of the coalition to stop Trump at all costs.

Should the Republicans face a contested convention this summer, nearly two-thirds of likely Republican voters in Indiana, 64%, say that the candidate with the most votes should be the GOP nominee even if he does not receive a majority of delegates before the convention.  This includes 88% of likely Republican primary voters for Trump but also 42% of Cruz’s supporters and 29% of those who back Kasich.  29% of likely GOP voters believe if no one gets a majority, the delegates should select the person they think would be the best nominee, including 64% of Kasich’s supporters.

“After the Acela primary, there is an aura of inevitability surrounding the Trump and Clinton candidacies,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “In Indiana, Trump is positioned to corral all the delegates which will be a big prize toward winning the nomination outright.  Clinton and Sanders are more likely to divide the delegate pool which will do little to change the narrative on the Democratic side.”

Looking at the Democratic contest, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 50%, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 46%, are closely matched among likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana.  Clinton’s support is bolstered by likely Democratic primary voters who are 45 years of age or older among whom she receives 70%.  Sanders’ support is buoyed by likely Democratic primary voters who are under 45 years old, among whom he is supported by 70%.  He also does well among those who are first-time or independent voters.  While Clinton, 57%, outpaces Sanders, 39%, among women, Sanders, 55%, leads Clinton, 41%, among men.

71% of likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  71% of Clinton’s supporters and 70% of Sanders’ backers express a firm level of commitment to their choice of candidate.

In hypothetical general election contests, all three Republican candidates lead Clinton.   Sanders, however, is closely matched among registered voters statewide against Trump, Cruz, and Kasich.

A plurality of the Indiana electorate, 42%, considers Trump’s statements on the campaign trail to be frequently insulting and thinks that he has the wrong approach on many issues.  Included here are 73% of Democrats but only 38% of independents and 20% of Republicans.  26% say Trump’s manner and language are bothersome, but he raises important issues, and 21% believe Trump tells it like it is and has the right approach on many issues.  10% percent do not think any of these statements describe Trump’s manner.

Turning to the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Todd Young, 56%, outdistances Marlin Stutzman, 24%, among likely Republican primary voters in Indiana.  A notable 19% are undecided.

42% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  49% of Stutzman’s supporters, compared with 39% of Young’s backers, say they will not waver in their commitment to their candidate.

Indiana residents divide about the job performance of Governor Mike Pence.  42% of adults statewide, including 63% of likely Republican primary voters, approve of the job he is doing in office while 41% disapprove.  A notable 17% are unsure.

Looking at President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the Hoosier State, 42% of adults statewide, including 84% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of the president’s performance.  50% disapprove.

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Indiana

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Indiana (Adults, Registered Voters, and Potential Electorates)

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Indiana (Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters)

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Indiana (Likely Democratic Presidential Primary Voters)

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Senate Tables of Indiana (Likely Republican Primary Voters and Potential Republican Electorates)

Marist Poll Methodology for Indiana

Nature of the Sample for Indiana

4/24: PA: Trump and Clinton with Double-Digit Leads

In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination in Pennsylvania, businessman Donald Trump, 45%, outpaces Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 27%, by 18 points among likely Republican primary voters statewide.  Ohio Governor John Kasich follows with 24%.  Trump leads his rivals among many key demographic groups.  Of note, Trump and Cruz are competitive among white evangelical Christians and those who describe themselves as very conservative.  Trump and Kasich vie for likely GOP voters who are college graduates or moderates.

Six in ten Republican likely primary voters with a candidate preference, 60%, say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Among those who support Trump, 72% report they are firmly committed to their choice.  This compares with 52% of Cruz’s backers and 47% of Kasich’s supporters who express the same level of support.

Looking at the second choice candidate of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 40%, is the most mentioned followed by Cruz, 30%.  18% say Trump is their second choice candidate for the Republican nomination.

“Trump and Clinton are both positioned to win the popular vote,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For the Democrats, it’s all about delegate counts.  But, for the Republicans, the popular vote doesn’t guarantee a big chunk of the delegates at the convention.  Many will not be committed to a candidate after Tuesday and will need convincing.”

In the race for the Democratic nomination for president, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 55%, has a 15 point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 40%, among likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania.  Clinton does especially well among likely Democratic primary voters who are 45 years of age or older or are African American.  Sanders does best among first-time voters, those who are under 45 years old, or those who identify as very liberal.  While Clinton leads Sanders by 28 points among women, Sanders, 49%, and Clinton, 45%, are competitive among men.

Seven in ten likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference, 70%, say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Clinton’s supporters, 71%, and Sanders’ backers, 68%, report they will not waver in their commitment to their candidate.

In hypothetical general election contests, Clinton and Sanders have the advantage over their potential Republican rivals, with one exception.  When Clinton, 45%, and Kasich, 48%, are paired against each other, the two are competitive among Pennsylvania registered voters.  In each of these potential general election contests, Sanders outperforms Clinton against the Republicans.

On the statewide level, 45% of Pennsylvania adults approve of Governor Tom Wolf’s job performance.  40% disapprove, and 15% are unsure.  Looking at the approval rating of Senator Pat Toomey, 42% approve of how he is doing his job, 28% disapprove, and a notable 30% are unsure.

What effect, if any, will the controversy surrounding the confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, have on Toomey’s re-election bid in November?  If Toomey agrees with his Republican colleagues to deny Garland confirmation hearings, a plurality of registered voters, 45%, say it will make no difference to their vote.  But, more than one in three, 34%, reports they would be less inclined to support Toomey.  18% say they would be more likely to vote for him.  If Toomey disagrees with his Republican colleagues and wants to hold confirmation hearings now, a majority, 54%, reports it will not influence whom they will support for the U.S. Senate.  More than one in four voters, 26%, think it would make them more likely to cast their ballot for Toomey.  17% say it would make them less likely to do so.

Pennsylvania adults divide about President Obama’s job performance.  49% of residents, including 82% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of how the president is doing his job.  46% disapprove.

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Pennsylvania

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for Pennsylvania

Nature of the Sample for Pennsylvania

 

4/16: NY: Trump with 29 Point Lead over Kasich

In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination, businessman Donald Trump, 54%, leads Ohio Governor John Kasich, 25%, by 29 points among likely Republican primary voters in New York State.  Texas Senator Ted Cruz receives 16% of the likely GOP electorate.  Trump maintains a commanding lead over his Republican rivals.  In the previous NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York, Trump was ahead of Kasich by 33 points.

“Donald Trump is well-positioned to carry New York handily and is likely to acquire a sizeable number of New York’s delegates, as a result,” says Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

 

64% of likely Republican voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  Seven in ten Trump supporters, 70%, say they will not waver in their commitment to him.

 Among likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 37%, is the most mentioned candidate as voters’ second choice.  Cruz follows with 30%, and Trump receives 14%.

 

Complete April 16, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of New York

 Complete April 16, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (Registered Voters)

 Complete April 16, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for New York

Nature of the Sample for New York 

4/15: NY: Clinton with Strong Lead

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 57%, runs ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 40%, by 17 points among New York likely Democratic primary voters in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination.  In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York released earlier this week, Clinton was ahead of Sanders by 14 points.

“As the primary approaches, the back and forth between Clinton and Sanders hasn’t dramatically changed the New York contest for the Democrats in the last few days,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Clinton has maintained her advantage over Sanders by running up a large margin among Democratic primary voters 45 years of age or older.  Sanders retains his lead among first-time voters, those under the age of 45, and likely Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as very liberal.  Looking at region, Clinton is ahead of Sanders by 26 points in New York City and 24 points in the city’s suburbs.  Clinton and Sanders are competitive upstate, 49% to 50%, respectively.

72% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference, compared with 69% of those earlier this week, report they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Clinton’s supporters, 71%, and Sanders’ backers, 72%, express a firm commitment to their choice of candidate.

Turning to the job performances of other prominent office holders in New York State, Governor Andrew Cuomo’s rating remains upside down.  41% of registered voters think Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 7% who say he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one.  55% of voters report Cuomo is doing either a fair, 34%, or poor, 21%, job.  Cuomo’s approval rating has inched up slightly from the 37% score he received in the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last year.

Assessing Cuomo’s approval rating by party, a majority of Democrats, 54%, approve of how the governor is doing in office, up from 43% last spring.  The proportions of Republicans, 25%, and independents, 38%, who give Cuomo high marks are identical to what they were at that time.

Regionally, Cuomo is perceived best in New York City, 47%, and in the city’s suburbs, 45%.  Last time, Cuomo’s approval rating was 44% in the city and 41% in the suburbs.  34% of upstate voters, compared with 31% last May, share this opinion.

43% of voters statewide think the Empire State is moving in the right direction while 48% say it is moving in the wrong one.  This is little changed from last spring when 43% said the state was on track, and 51% thought it was off course.

Regionally, differences exist.  Half of New York City voters, 50%, have a positive opinion of the direction of the state.  43% of those in the suburbs and 38% of voters upstate agree.

The approval rating of New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is at its lowest point since taking office.  35% of voters citywide approve of his job performance.  Included here are 8% of registered voters citywide who think the mayor is doing an excellent job and 27% who say he is doing a good one.  62% think he has done a fair or poor job.  In the November Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 38% approved of de Blasio’s job performance, and 58% did not.  Currently, even a majority of Democrats rate him as fair or poor, 54%.

Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating is down among white voters.  27% of white voters approve of de Blasio’s job performance, down from 32% in the fall.  There is little change among Latinos and African Americans.  36% of Latinos, comparable to the 37% he received last time, approve of how de Blasio is doing his job.  Among African Americans, 49% give de Blasio high scores while 50% did so previously.

When it comes to the direction of New York City, voters’ opinions are upside down.  A majority of New York City voters, 51%, continue to think things in the Big Apple are moving in the wrong direction.  43% believe New York City is moving in the right one.  This is somewhat improved from last fall when 55% thought the city was on the wrong path, and 38% reported it was on the right course.

In contrast, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating among New York registered voters, 52%, is at its highest in three years.  Mr. Obama received an identical score of 52% this time three years ago.  When this question was last reported in May of 2015, 46% of registered voters gave Mr. Obama high scores, and 54% did not.

Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of New York

 Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (New York State Registered Voters)

 Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (New York City Registered Voters)

Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

 Marist Poll Methodology for New York

 Nature of the Sample for New York 

4/13: MD: Trump Up 12 Points over Cruz… Clinton with Commanding Lead over Sanders

In Maryland, businessman Donald Trump has a 12 point lead over Texas Senator Ted Cruz among the likely Republican primary electorate.  On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a wide 22 point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters statewide.

Looking at the Republican contest, Trump receives 41% to 29% for Cruz and 24% for Ohio Governor John Kasich among likely Republican primary voters.

“If the front-runners maintain their leads, Trump and Clinton remain on the path to securing their respective party’s nomination,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “With two weeks to go to the Maryland primary, their rivals need to find a way to close the gap.”

Trump does best among likely Republican primary voters in Maryland who do not practice a religion, Tea Party supporters, earn less than $50,000 annually, or do not have a college degree.  Trump and Cruz tie among white evangelical Christians.  They are also competitive among those who practice a religion and women.  Also noteworthy, Kasich leads by double digits among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves as moderate.

58% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  When compared with Cruz’s supporters, 51%, and Kasich’s backers, 44%, a larger proportion of Trump’s supporters, 71%, report they are firmly committed to their candidate selection.

Among likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 35%, and Cruz, 34%, are the most mentioned second choice.  Trump receives 17%.

On the Democratic side, Clinton, 58%, outpaces Sanders, 36%, by 22 points among likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton leads Sanders among most demographic groups, but she does especially well among likely Democratic primary voters who are women and 45 years of age or older or African Americans.  Sanders has a double-digit lead over Clinton among those who are under 45 years old.

69% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  72% of Clinton’s supporters, compared with 65% of Sanders’ backers, report they strongly support their candidate of choice.

Turning to this fall’s general election, Clinton and Sanders both have large leads over their potential Republican rivals.  They have their greatest advantage when matched against Trump.

In Maryland’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, a majority of likely voters, 57%, are undecided. Kathy Szeliga, 20%, is ahead of Richard Douglas, 13%, and Chrys Kefalas, 9%, among likely Republican primary voters.  Only 28% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  36% somewhat support their selection, and 35% say they might vote differently.

In the Democratic contest for U.S. Senate, Chris Van Hollen, 44%, and Donna Edwards, 38%, are competitive among likely Democratic primary voters.  18% are undecided.  53% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Edwards’ supporters, 55%, and Van Hollen’s backers, 53%, say they strongly support their candidate.

On the issues, more than two-thirds of Maryland residents, 67%, including 68% of registered voters, agree with the change in state law which decriminalizes the possession of small amounts of marijuana.  75% of Democrats, 70% of independents, and even 53% of Republicans agree with the change in the law.

There is less consensus when it comes to legalizing betting on fantasy sports websites such as Fan Duel and Draft Kings.  40% of residents, including the same proportion of registered voters, support such a proposal while 43% oppose it.  17% are undecided.  While pluralities of Republicans, 48%, and Democrats, 44%, are against legalizing such behavior, a plurality of independents, 46%, support it.

A majority of Maryland adults, 59%, including the same proportion of registered voters, think the laws governing the sale of guns should be stricter.  14% say they should be less strict, and 24% report they should be kept as they are.  While most Democrats, 82%, support strengthening the laws governing the sale of firearms, a plurality of Maryland’s GOP, just 36%, believes these laws should be kept as they are.  A plurality of independents, 46%, think the laws should be stricter.

Both Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and President Barack Obama are highly regarded among residents statewide.  More than two-thirds of Maryland adults, 67%, approve of Governor Hogan’s job performance.  15% disapprove.  Looking at the job performance of President Obama, 62% of residents statewide, including 88% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of how the president is doing his job.  31% disapprove.

 Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Release of Maryland

 Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Tables of Maryland (Adults & Registered Voters)

 Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Tables of Maryland (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Tables of Maryland (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Senate Tables of Maryland (Likely Republican Primary Voters, Likely Democratic Primary Voters & Potential Electorates )

Marist Poll Methodology for Maryland

Nature of the Sample for Maryland

 



 

4/12: New York: Trump Well-Positioned for Big Win… Clinton Dems’ Favorite

In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination in New York, businessman Donald Trump is favored by 54% of New York’s likely Republican primary voters.  If he can hold on to a majority of Republican support in the state, the April 19th contest could give him the lion’s share of New York’s delegates.  Ohio Governor John Kasich, 21%, lags behind in second followed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 18%.  Trump has a double-digit lead among key demographic groups.

“The road to the conventions goes through New York for both the Democrats and Republicans,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Right now, the front-runners look like they will erase recent setbacks and add significantly to their delegate margins.  New York is not likely to enhance the hopes of those trying to close the gap in the delegate hunt.”

64% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference or voted by absentee ballot strongly support their choice of candidate.  Among likely Republican primary voters who support Trump, 72% are firmly committed to him.

Looking at the second choice candidate of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 36%, tops the list followed by Cruz, 32%, and Trump, 15%.

In the event that Trump goes to the Republican convention in Cleveland with the most delegates but does not have enough to win the nomination on the first ballot, a majority of likely Republican primary voters in New York, 64%, think Trump should still receive the nomination.  28% assert the GOP should nominate someone else.  If the Republican Party decides to nominate someone else, about six in ten likely Republican primary voters, 59%, say the nominee should be someone who ran in this year’s primary.  32% think it is acceptable to nominate someone who was not a candidate during the primaries.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 55%, leads Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 41%, among likely Democratic primary voters in New York including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who voted by absentee ballot.  Three percent are undecided.

Clinton does best among likely Democratic primary voters in New York who are women and 45 years of age and older or who are African American.  Sanders does best among likely Democratic primary voters who have not participated in primaries in the past, those who are under 45 years old, or those who identify as very liberal. Clinton leads Sanders by 19 points in New York City and by 25 points in the suburbs which surround the city.  Clinton and Sanders are competitive upstate.

69% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  More Clinton supporters, 73%, express a firm commitment to their preferred candidate than do backers of Sanders, 63%.

When it comes to party unity, Sanders’ backers are more hesitant than Clinton’s supporters to rally behind their candidate’s opponent if that opponent receives the Democratic nomination.  62% of Sanders’ backers say they will throw their support behind Clinton if she becomes the nominee.  This compares with 77% of Clinton’s supporters who say they will unify behind Sanders if he wins the party’s nod.

Turning to the general election, not surprisingly in this blue state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by two to one, the Democrats have the advantage over the Republicans among New York registered voters.  Both Sanders and Clinton lead their potential GOP rivals by double digits.

Among the Democratic and Republican fields, three candidates, Clinton, Sanders, and Trump, have connections to New York.  Who is the real New Yorker?  When New York residents are asked, 37% say Trump is the authentic New Yorker followed by Sanders, 27%, and Clinton, 26%.  When Democrats are asked to choose between Clinton and Sanders, 42% of the likely Democratic electorate chooses Clinton, and 39% select Sanders.

Looking at President Barack Obama’s approval rating in New York State, 62% of residents, including 87% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of the job the president is doing in office.  33% of residents disapprove.

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release of New York

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Adults & Potential Electorates)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Registered Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for New York

Nature of the Sample for New York

 

4/7: Delegate Front-Runners, Clinton and Trump, Benefit from Each Other

Registered voters nationally are motivated more by dislike for the other candidate than positive feelings for their candidate of choice in a general election contest between the Democratic and Republican delegate leaders, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump.  In a hypothetical tossup between Clinton and Trump, Clinton, 50%, leads Trump, 41%, by 9 points among the national electorate.  While Trump’s support is identical to what he received in November’s McClatchy-Marist Poll, 41%, Clinton’s support has declined from 56%.

However, 53% of Clinton’s supporters say their vote is one of opposition to Trump and not in support of Clinton. Among Trump’s supporters, a similar pattern exists.  More than six in ten, 61%, report they choose Trump because they are against Clinton.

“What an odd place Clinton and Trump voters find themselves in this unprecedented election cycle,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “While front-runners typically bank on favorable views from their followers, Clinton and Trump candidacies are fueled by voters’ dislike of the alternative.”

When Clinton is matched against her other potential general election opponents, the contests become more competitive.  Clinton and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are tied, 47% to 47%, among registered voters nationally.  This contest has become tighter since the fall when Clinton, 53%, was ahead of Cruz, 43%, by 10 points.  Against Ohio Governor John Kasich, Clinton trails Kasich, 42% to 51%.  Support for Kasich has grown.  In the July McClatchy-Marist Poll, Clinton, 49%, had a double-digit lead over Kasich, 39%, among the national electorate.

In each of these three general election contests, a partisan divide exists.  However, when Trump and Clinton are matched, more than one in ten Republicans support Clinton, and independents divide.  When Kasich goes up against Clinton, more than one in ten Democrats back Kasich.  Among independent voters, Kasich outpaces Clinton by 22 points, and Cruz leads Clinton by 11 points.

A gender gap is also present.  Against Trump and Cruz, Clinton has a double-digit lead among women.  She is ahead of Trump by 24 points and Cruz by 12.  However, Clinton only has a 5 point edge over Kasich among this key voting group.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders runs better against Trump, Cruz, or Kasich than does Clinton.  Sanders’ greatest advantage is over Trump, 57% to 37%, among registered voters nationally.  In November, Sanders received 53% of the vote to 41% for Trump.

Here, a majority of Trump’s supporters, 52%, say they are voting for Trump while 44% say their vote is in opposition to Sanders.  Sanders’ supporters divide.  49% report their vote is an affirmation of Sanders while 48% say it is a ballot against Trump.

Looking at Sanders’ other potential Republican candidates, Sanders also bests Cruz, 53% to 41% and Kasich, 52% to 41%, among the national electorate, little changed from last November.

By party, most Democrats support Sanders while most Republicans support Trump, Cruz, or Kasich.  A notable 18% of Republicans, though, back Sanders in a hypothetical matchup against Trump.  Among independents, Sanders leads his potential GOP opponents.  He is ahead of Trump by 24 points among independents.  Against Cruz and Kasich, Sanders leads by 9 points and 8 points, respectively.

Does it matter if the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate wins the general election?  Registered voters nationally divide.  45% think their family will be economically better off if the Republican candidate is victorious.  41% have this view about a victory by the Democratic nominee.  When it comes to national security, 44% of the national electorate say the country will be safer if the Democrat wins.  The same proportion, 44%, reports the GOP will make the nation safer.  On both questions, a partisan divide exists with pluralities of independent voters saying the Republicans will improve the economy and national security.

Complete April 7, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

4/7: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Where does the race for the White House stand nationally?  When the Democratic and Republican front-runners, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump, are matched against each other, are their respective supporters voting for their candidate of choice or against his or her opponent?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

4/6: Sanders and Clinton Competitive Nationally… Will the Party Unify?

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are in a virtual dead heat in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination nationally.  Among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, just two points separate Sanders, 49%, and Clinton, 47%.

Sanders leads Clinton by two to one among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents who are under 45 years old.  Included here are 76% of those under 30, giving Sanders a 53 point lead over Clinton among this voting group.  Sanders also has a wide lead, about 30 points, over Clinton among Latino voters or independents.  He also does well among those who self-identify as very liberal or liberal.

Clinton outperforms Sanders by 26 points among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents who are 45 years of age or older or African American.  She has a 10 point lead over Sanders among Democrats.  Clinton and Sanders are competitive among both men and women as well Democrats who are white.

“The difference between support for Sanders and Clinton is generational,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Other distinctions blur when you account for a voter’s age.”

If Sanders wins the Democratic nomination, most of Clinton’s supporters, 79%, say they will back Sanders in the general election.  69% of Sanders’ supporters report they will back Clinton.

Complete April 6, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

4/6: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Will the Democratic Party unite behind the party’s eventual nominee?  What are the odds that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s supporters will back Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders if he wins the nomination?  What are the chances Sanders’ backers will throw their support behind Clinton if she becomes the nominee?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

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