8/14: Clinton Leads GOP Rivals, but Loses Ground

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still favored against several of her potential Republican opponents among registered voters nationally, but she no longer is backed by the majority of the electorate.  In fact, Clinton’s once double-digital lead against GOP hopefuls former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has eroded.  Clinton’s change of fortune is largely due to a shift among independent voters among whom she still leads but not by the margins she did before.

Complete August 14, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll

But, as for who the Republican nominee will be, that’s still anybody’s guess.  With nearly one in four Republican and Republican leaning independents undecided, an increase from just months ago, no clear front-runner has emerged from the pack.  Bush and Christie currently top the leader board with low double-digit support.  Ted Cruz is the only other Republican candidate to reach ten percent.

“There is no pre-season for team Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “She needs to perform at Super Bowl level from start to finish.”

Poll Points

  • Clinton leads Jeb Bush, 48% to 41%, among registered voters nationally (Trend).  She receives similar support against Chris Christie, 47% to 41% (Trend), and Rand Paul, 48% to 42% (Trend).  In each of these contests, the proportion of voters who back the Republican candidates is indistinguishable, and Clinton fails to break fifty percent.
  • Clinton’s support among independent voters against each of these three potential rivals has declined from a previous poll conducted in April.  She is down among independents by 10 points against Bush, nine points against Paul, and six points against Christie.
  • In each of these contests, a gender gap exists.  However, Clinton has lost support among, both, men and women since the previous poll.
  • The national electorate is extremely polarized in each of these presidential matchups.  Clinton is backed by most Democrats and the Republican base is unified against her, regardless of the GOP candidate.

Crowded GOP Field Fails to Yield Front-Runner

  • 23% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents are undecided about who they will support in the 2016 Republican primary.  Jeb Bush and Chris Christie each receives 13% while 10% support Texas Senator Ted Cruz.  Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and Florida Senator Marco Rubio are close behind with 9%.  Texas Governor Rick Perry and Senator Rand Paul are backed by 7%.  Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal trail.
  • Although the sample size is small, there has been a notable shift in the preferences of Tea Party supporters.  15% of these voters now back Cruz, up from 6% in April.  In contrast, Rand Paul’s support among the Tea Party has fallen from 20% in the previous poll to 7% currently.
  • Men are more likely than women to have a candidate preference in the GOP primary.  30% of women are undecided compared with 14% of men.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

8/13: McClatchy-Marist Poll

In the 2016 race for the White House, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still ahead of her potential Republican rivals, but her lead has shrunk.  Which voting group is most responsible for the turn of the tide?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

7/25: Candidate Clinton? 50-50 Odds Are Never a Sure Bet

July 25, 2014 by  
Filed under Blog, Featured, Lee Miringoff

There are two schools of thought on whether Hillary Clinton is running for president in 2016.  Some say she is and some say she isn’t.

But, is Clinton in essence already on the campaign trail?  I don’t know.  What have we learned about whether she will eventually run for real?  I don’t know.

Why? Because if Hillary Clinton is running for president, she’d be doing exactly what she’s been doing lately… a book tour, public pronouncements, TV appearances etc.  If Hillary Clinton is not running for president, she’d also be doing exactly what she’s been doing lately… a book tour, public pronouncements, TV appearances etc.

There are several interesting take-aways from our recent NBC News/Marist Polls of Iowa and New Hampshire on what the public thinks about the former First Lady, former US Senator, and former Secretary of State.  First off, Democrats are ready for Hillary.  Her favorable rating with her party’s faithful is 89% in Iowa and 94% in New Hampshire.  WOW!  And, she trounces VP Joe Biden in both of these states in early hypothetical matchups by 50 points in Iowa and 56 points in New Hampshire.  DOUBLE WOW!!

Dems may be ready for Hillary, but the rest of the voters in these two states are less than eager.  In fact, she is closely matched against most of her potential GOP rivals, and is under 50% in both states against all comers except Scott Walker in Iowa and Ted Cruz in New Hampshire.  To make matters even less comforting for the Clinton for President team, each of the Republicans runs better in pairings against Clinton than their own favorability rating.  In other words, Hillary Clinton unifies the GOP opposition.  Right now, she’d make Iowa and New Hampshire, states that Obama carried both times, swing states.  Not a pretty picture for the Democrats.

So, Hillary Clinton may ultimately toss her hat into the ring.  And, she may have a clear path to her party’s nomination.  But, she will have to go through a prolonged battle against her eventual GOP opponent before anyone should talk of her winning the White House.

7/17: New Hampshire 2016 Could Be Swing State

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in a close contest against potential GOP rival, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in a 2016 general election matchup in New Hampshire.  Clinton has single-digit leads against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  She has a wider lead over Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.  But, only against Cruz is Clinton supported by more than 50% of New Hampshire voters.  Clinton does better than each of her potential opponents among independent voters.  The gender gap in all of these matchups is wide.

Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll New Hampshire Release and Tables

Clinton is well liked by a majority of New Hampshire residents owing to her strong standing among women.  Vice President Biden has a higher negative rating than positive score among residents in the state.

New Hampshire residents give mixed reviews to Republicans Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker.  The ratings for Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz are all upside down with more residents viewing them negatively than positively.

The morning line for the first-in-the-nation presidential primary has Hillary Clinton the overwhelming choice of Democrats over Joe Biden.  Both Clinton and Biden are popular among most Democrats in the state.

On the Republican side, there is no clear choice among the potential 2016 New Hampshire Primary electorate for their party’s nominee.  More than one in five GOP’ers are undecided, and only Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush have low double-digit support.  Each potential GOP contender is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by Republicans in the state.  Rand Paul is the most popular among GOP voters.

“New Hampshire always gets a lot of attention because of its status as the first-in-the-nation primary and 2016 will be no exception,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “It may be a frequent stopping off point for the general election, as well.”

Poll Points

  • Democrat Hillary Clinton is in a competitive contest against potential GOP rival Rand Paul, 46% to 43%.  She has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio, 47% to 42%, in each instance.  Clinton does better against Scott Walker, 48% to 39%, and Ted Cruz, 51% to 38%.
  • Clinton is boosted by her support among independent voters and is backed by the majority of women in each matchup.
  • Statewide, 53%, of residents have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton including 60% of women.  42% of state residents have an unfavorable opinion of her.  Biden is viewed positively by 39% of New Hampshire residents, but 48% have a negative opinion of him.
  • Residents in the state divide about how they view several of the potential GOP candidates:  Marco Rubio who has a 31% positive rating and a 28% negative score; Rand Paul who receives a favorable rating of 39% and an unfavorable score of 38%; and Scott Walker, with whom voters are least familiar, is liked by 24% of residents and disliked by 23%.
  • Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz all have ratings that are upside down.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Frontrunner

  • Hillary Clinton outpaces Joe Biden 74% to 18% among the potential New Hampshire Democratic Primary electorate for 2016.
  • Most Democrats in the state, 94%, have a positive opinion of Clinton.  Just 4% view her negatively.  Joe Biden is also liked by most New Hampshire Democrats.  79% have a favorable view of him, and 14% have an unfavorable opinion of him.

GOP:  No Pace Horse

  • 22% of the potential New Hampshire Republican Primary electorate are undecided in their preference for a 2016 GOP presidential nominee.  Paul at 14%, Christie at 13%, and Bush at 10% are the only potential candidates who have double-digit support.
  • The contest is no clearer when the potential Republican electorate is asked for a second choice.  Rubio is the backup pick of 16%, Bush garners 13%, Christie and Paul each attract 12%, and Ryan is the second choice of 10%.
  • 71% of state Republicans have a positive opinion of Rand Paul and only 15% have a negative impression of him.  Although each of the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among New Hampshire Republicans, Paul has the highest favorability rating.  A majority of state Republicans like Bush, 65%, Rubio, 58%, and Christie, 52%.  50% have a positive view of Cruz and Walker.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/17: Iowa 2016: Rand Paul and Chris Christie Tossup with Hillary Clinton

Looking ahead to 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the odds on favorite against Vice President Joe Biden among Iowa Democrats for her party’s nomination.  But, she would find a general election matchup against either Kentucky Senator Rand Paul or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie very competitive.  Clinton edges former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and has an early lead over Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.  There is a wide gender gap in these matchups.  Although each of the potential Republican candidates has a more positive than negative rating with GOP voters, all but Paul and Rubio are upside down when it comes to Iowa residents’ impressions of the Republican candidates.


Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Iowa Release and Tables

But, first things first, one in five 2016 potential Republican caucus goers are unsure who they support for their presidential nominee, and no single potential candidate has broken out of the pack.  Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan have low double-digit support among potential Republican caucus attendees in the state.

On the Democratic side, seven in ten support Clinton over Biden.  Even though Clinton is more popular, both receive positive scores from most Democrats.  Clinton is viewed favorably by a majority of Iowans.  Not so for Biden whose negatives among state residents exceed his positives, overall.

“In a state Obama carried twice, Hillary Clinton would find Rand Paul and Chris Christie formidable opponents in the battle for Iowa’s six electoral votes,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The contest narrows in these two matchups because Paul and Christie do better with independent voters than do the other Republicans.”

Poll Points

  • Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is closely matched against potential GOP rivals Rand Paul, 45% to 45%, and Chris Christie, 44% to 43%, among Iowa’s registered voters.  Clinton has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, 46% to 42%.
  • In these contests, Clinton and each of the potential Republican contenders, Paul, Christie, and Bush, are competitive among independents.
  • Clinton is ahead of Marco Rubio, 49% to 40%; Ted Cruz, 49% to 37%; and Scott Walker, 50% to 37%.
  • Regardless of the potential GOP opponent against Clinton, there is a wide gender gap.
  • A majority of Iowans, 52%, have a positive impression of Hillary Clinton, and 42% have a negative view of her.  In contrast, more state residents, 48%, have an unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden, and 39% have a favorable one.
  • Rand Paul has a 38% favorable and a 36% unfavorable rating, and Marco Rubio has a 30% favorable and a 28% unfavorable score.  They are the only two Republicans who are not viewed more negatively than positively by Iowans.
  • Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush have higher negative scores than positive.

GOP:  No Leader of the Pack

  • 20% of the potential Republican electorate in Iowa are undecided about their choice for a 2016 GOP nominee.  Bush at 12%, Paul at 12%, and Ryan at 11% are the only potential candidates in double-digits.
  • The contest hardly clarifies when potential Republican caucus goers are asked their second choice.  Bush at 12%, Santorum, Ryan, and Perry each at 11%, and Paul at 10% are the only potential candidates who attract double-digit support as a second choice.
  • All the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among Iowa Republicans.  Rand Paul is liked best by Iowa Republicans.  66% of Republicans have a positive view of him, and only 18% have a negative impression of him.  A majority of state Republicans also have a favorable view of Bush, 63%, and Rubio, 57%.  50% have a positive impression of Christie.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Front-runner

  • Hillary Clinton receives the support of 70% of the potential Democratic electorate compared with 20% for Joe Biden.
  • Most Democrats in the state, 89%, have a favorable impression of Clinton.  Only 6% view her unfavorably.  Joe Biden is also popular among Iowa Democrats.  72% view him positively, and just 18% see him in a negative light.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

5/12: Arkansas: Pryor Leads for U.S. Senate; Hutchinson Ahead for Governor

In the race for U.S. Senate in Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor is ahead of Republican Tom Cotton, 51% to 40%, among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent support another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete May 12, 2014 Arkansas NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll

“These results give us a sense of who is ahead among all potential voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As we get closer to November, polling will be able to identify the character of the electorate for this election cycle.”

Key points:

  • Party ID.  A partisan divide exists.  Most Democrats — 89% — back Pryor while only 5% are for Cotton.  Among Republicans, most — 85% — support Cotton compared with 10% for Pryor.  Among independents, Pryor edges Cotton, 48% to 41%.
  • Gender.  There is a gender gap.  A majority of women voters — 55% — are for Pryor while 35% are behind Cotton.  Men divide.  46% of male voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — backs Cotton.
  • Race.  While 85% of African American voters support Pryor, white voters divide.  46% of white voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — are for Cotton.
  • White Evangelical Christians.  Cotton leads Pryor, 58% to 36%, among registered voters who are white and describe themselves as Evangelical Christians.  One percent supports another candidate, and 5% are undecided.
  • President Obama.  Pryor overwhelmingly carries voters who approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, 86% to 9% for Cotton.  Among voters who disapprove of the president’s performance in office, Cotton leads 61% to 32% for Pryor.

“So far, Senator Pryor has staved off Cotton’s challenge,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Holding this seat is no easy task for a Democrat with President Obama’s approval rating at 33% in the state.”

Table: 2014 Senate Tossup (Arkansas Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Plurality with Favorable Impression of Pryor…Cotton with Mixed Reviews

46% of Arkansans have a favorable opinion of Pryor while 32% have an unfavorable view of him.  Nine percent have never heard of Pryor, and 14% are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters statewide, 50% think well of Pryor while 35% have a lesser view of him.  11% are unsure how to rate him.

47% of white Evangelical Christians like Pryor while 38% have a negative opinion of him.  Five percent have never heard of Pryor, and 10% are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Cotton, 37% of Arkansas residents have an unfavorableview of him, 34% have a positive opinion of him.  15% have never heard of Cotton, and 14% are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters, 39% have a negative view of Cotton.  38% like him, and 9% have never heard of him.  14% are unsure how to rate him.  Among white Evangelical Christians, 48% have a positive opinion of Cotton.  31% have a negative one, and 8% have never heard of Cotton.  13% are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Pryor Favorability (Arkansas Adults)

Table: Cotton Favorability (Arkansas Adults)

Hutchinson with Advantage in Governor’s Race

Looking at the gubernatorial contest in Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson — 49% — leads Democrat Mike Ross — 42% — by 7 points among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent back another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

Key points:

  • Party ID.  89% of Republicans are for Hutchinson.  This compares with 78% of Democrats who are for Ross.  52% of independents support Hutchinson while 37% are for Ross.
  • Race.  71% of African American voters support Ross while 56% of white voters are for Hutchinson.
  • White Evangelical Christians.  By more than two-to-one, Hutchinson leads Ross among those who are white and describe themselves as Evangelical Christians.  69% support Hutchinson while 27% are for Ross.

Table: 2014 Gubernatorial Tossup (Arkansas Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Nearly Three in Four Approve of Beebe’s Job Performance

74% of adults approve of how Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe is doing in office.  13% disapprove, and 13% are unsure.  Among registered voters in the state, 79% applaud Beebe’s job performance.  13% think he has fallen short, and 9% are unsure.

And, what do Arkansas residents think of the state’s most famous governor?  Seven in ten — 70% — have a favorable impression of former President Bill Clinton while 26% have an unfavorable view of him.  Four percent are unsure how to rate Clinton.  Looking at registered voters, 68% like Clinton, 28% do not, and 3% are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Mike Beebe Approval Rating (Arkansas Adults)

Table: Bill Clinton Favorability (Arkansas Adults)

Majority in Arkansas Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance

57% of residents statewide disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president.  33% approve, and 9% are unsure.  Among registered voters, 60% think Obama has missed the mark.  34% approve of the president’s job performance, and 6% are unsure.

Do adults in Arkansas approve of the president’s Affordable Care Act?  A majority — 54% — thinks the health care law is a bad idea.  This includes 47% who strongly hold this opinion and 7% who somewhat do.  30% believe the health care law is a good one.  Included here are 21% who strongly support the program and 9% who just think it’s a good idea.  14% of residents have no opinion either way, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Obama Approval Rating (Arkansas Adults)

Table: Is the New Health Care Law a Good or Bad Idea? (Arkansas Adults)

Nearly Seven in Ten Say Nation is Off Course

68% of Arkansans say the nation is moving in the wrong direction.  27% believe it is on track.  An additional 5% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters have these opinions.  69% believe the nation is off track.  27% say it is on course.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Arkansas Adults)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

4/16: Clinton with Majority Support against GOP Hopefuls

If Hillary Clinton were to enter the presidential contest, she would be the front-runner with a strong lead against her possible Republican rivals.  Her closest opponent, Paul Ryan, trails Clinton by 8 percentage points among registered voters nationally.  Clinton outpaces her other potential GOP rivals by double digits.

Click Here for Complete April 16, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Hillary Clinton is very popular among Democrats and may have smooth sailing to the Democratic nomination,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “She currently dominates a crowded Republican field and continues to break 50% against each of her possible GOP rivals.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates: 

  • 51% support Clinton compared with 43% for Ryan.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton — 52% — led Ryan — 44% — by the same margin in February’s McClatchy-Marist Poll.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Against Chris Christie, Clinton receives 53% to 42% for Christie.  Five percent are undecided.  However, Clinton outpaced Christie by 21 percentage points in February.  At that time, 58% of registered voters, then, backed Clinton while 37% supported Christie.  Six percent were undecided.
  • 53% of voters support Clinton while 40% are behind Mike Huckabee.  Six percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 55% were for Clinton while 41% were behind Huckabee.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 54% — also has the advantage against Rand Paul — 40%.  Six percent are undecided.  In that previous McClatchy-Marist Poll, 58% were for Clinton while 38% were for Paul.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 54% — outdistances Ted Cruz — 39% — by 15 percentage points.  Seven percent are undecided.  Two months ago, 56% of voters were behind Clinton while 39% supported Cruz.  Five percent, then, were undecided.
  • When matched against Jeb Bush, Clinton leads Bush, 55% to 39%.  Six percent are undecided.  In February, Clinton received 58% to 38% for Bush.  Four percent were undecided.
  • Clinton garners 54% to 38% for Marco Rubio.  Eight percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 58% of voters supported Clinton while 37% backed Rubio.  Four percent were undecided.
  • Clinton — 56% — does the best against Joe Scarborough — 35%.  Here, she leads Scarborough by 21 percentage points.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Scarborough

Majority with Favorable View of Clinton…Christie and Bush Upside Down

52% of registered voters nationally have a positive opinion of Clinton, including 81% of Democrats.  43% have an unfavorable view of her, including 78% of Republicans.  Five percent have either never heard of Clinton or are unsure how to rate her.  Independent voters divide.  49% of these voters like Hillary Clinton and 46% do not.  There has been no change on this question since February when identical proportions of registered voters had these views.  52%, at that time, thought well of Clinton, 43% had an unfavorable opinion of her, and 5% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Voters’ impressions of Christie and Bush are upside down.  44% of voters have a negative view of Christie while 36% have a positive impression of him.  One in five — 20% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Two months ago, 46% had an unfavorable opinion of Christie, and 33% thought well of him.  21% had either never heard of Christie or were unsure how to rate him.

Looking at Bush’s favorable rating, 42% have an unfavorable impression of him.  However, 31% like Bush.  27% have either never heard of Jeb Bush or are unsure how to rate him.

Close to two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — have either never heard of Scarborough or are unsure how to rate him.  21% have a negative view of the former congressman and morning show host while 14% have a positive impression of Scarborough.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability (Over Time)

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability (Over Time)

Table: Jeb Bush Favorability

Table: Joe Scarborough Favorability

No Clear Leader of the GOP Pack

None of the potential Republican contenders for president has emerged as the front-runner.  2016 for the GOP is an open contest with no one having established an early advantage.

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:

  • 13% Mike Huckabee
  • 13% Jeb Bush
  • 12% Rand Paul
  • 12% Chris Christie
  • 12% Paul Ryan
  •   7% Marco Rubio
  •   5% Scott Walker
  •   4% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Bobby Jindal
  •   3% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  • <1% John Kasich
  • 14% undecided

In February’s McClatchy-Marist Poll, Christie and Huckabee each received the support of 13% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  12% backed Rubio while 9% were for Paul.  Another 9% supported Ryan.  Bush and Sarah Palin each garnered the support of 8% of Republicans.  Seven percent were behind Walker, and 5% backed Cruz.  Perry and Santorum each had 2%, and Kasich garnered 1%.  12%, at that time, were undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/15: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to 2016, what would Hillary Clinton’s electoral chances be if she decided to run for president?  Is there a clear front-runner among the potential Republican candidates?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

2/12: Clinton Breaks 50% against GOP Rivals for 2016

February 12, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

If Hillary Clinton were to run for president in 2016 and win her party’s nomination, a majority of registered voters nationally would support Clinton, regardless of her Republican opponent.  Her closest competitor is Paul Ryan who Clinton leads by single digits.  Clinton has a similar lead when up against former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Click Here for Complete February 12, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Voters are still a long way from making choices,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, right now, Clinton is in a league of her own.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

  • Clinton — 52% — leads Paul Ryan — 44% — by 8 percentage points.  Four percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in December, Clinton received 56% to 40% for Ryan.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 53% — is also ahead of Romney — 44% — by single digits.  Three percent are undecided.
  • Against Mike Huckabee, Clinton opens up a double-digit lead.  Here, 55% of voters are for Clinton compared with 41% for Huckabee.  Four percent are undecided.
  • Clinton — 56% — has a seventeen percentage point advantage over Ted Cruz — 39%.  Five percent are undecided.  In December, Clinton received 57% to 35% for Cruz.  Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton also outpaces Jeb Bush by 20 percentage points.  58% of voters nationally support Clinton compared with 38% for Bush.  Four percent are undecided.  In December, Clinton had 53% while Bush received 41%.  Six percent, then, were undecided.
  • When matched against Rand Paul, Clinton leads by 20 percentage points.  A majority — 58% — supports Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  Four percent are undecided.  In that previous McClatchy-Marist survey, 55% backed Clinton while 40% were for Paul.  Five percent were undecided.
  • Against Chris Christie, Clinton — 58% — outdistances Christie — 37% — by 21 percentage points.  Six percent are undecided.  When this question was reported in January, 50% of voters were for Clinton while 37% were for Christie.  12% were undecided.
  • Nearly six in ten voters — 58% — support Clinton compared with 37% for Marco Rubio.  Four percent are undecided.  In December, 52% backed Clinton while 42% supported Rubio.  Five percent were undecided.
  • Against Sarah Palin, Clinton receives 62% to 35% for Palin.  Three percent are undecided.  Two months ago, 59% were behind Clinton compared with 36% for Palin.  Four percent were undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Romney

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Palin

Favorably Speaking?

A majority of registered voters — 52% — has a favorable view of Clinton.  43% have an unfavorable impression of her, and 5% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In January, 51% of voters thought well of Clinton.  39% had a lesser view of her, and 10% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Half of Americans, including a slim majority of voters, give Clinton high marks for her tenure as Secretary of State.  50% of adults approve of the job she did.  This includes 18% who think she did an excellent job and 32% who believe she did a good one.  28% rate her performance as fair while 19% give her poor marks.  Three percent are unsure.  Among registered voters, 51% of voters think highly of the job Clinton did as Secretary of State.  26% report she did an average job while 20% say she fell short.  Three percent of voters are unsure.

Romney’s favorability is upside down.  51% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney while 43% have a favorable one.  Six percent have either never heard of Romney or are unsure how to rate him.

Christie’s favorable rating is also more negative than positive.  A plurality of voters — 46% — has an unfavorable view of him.  33% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of Christie or are unsure how to rate him.  Fewer voters are unsure about Christie’s image, to his detriment.  In January, 32% of voters had a negative view of Christie.  29% had a positive one, and 39% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Americans’ opinions regarding Christie’s involvement in the George Washington Bridge controversy have flipped.  46% of adults nationally currently say Christie is not telling the truth while 42% think he is.  12% are unsure.  In January, 44% of Americans reported Christie was being mostly truthful while 33% thought Christie was not being completely honest.  23%, then, were unsure.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Hillary Clinton Approval Rating as Secretary of State

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Telling the Truth about the George Washington Bridge Controversy?

Crowded Field for 2016 GOP Nomination

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:

  • 13% Chris Christie
  • 13% Mike Huckabee
  • 12% Marco Rubio
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   9% Paul Ryan
  •   8% Jeb Bush
  •   8% Sarah Palin
  •   7% Scott Walker
  •   5% Ted Cruz
  •   2% Rick Perry
  •   2% Rick Santorum
  •   1% John Kasich
  • 12% undecided

“The Democrats may have a clear front-runner in Hillary Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, front-runner is not the word you would use to describe the GOP field.”

When this question was last reported in January, Christie had the support of 16%, 12% backed Ryan while 9% were for Paul.  Bush had the support of 8%, and 7% were for Rubio.  Six percent backed Perry, and Santorum and Cruz each received 5%.  Four percent were for Scott Walker while 3% were behind Bobby Jindal.  One in four — 25% — was undecided.

Which candidate would be the second choice of Republican and Republican leaning independents without Christie and Palin in the contest?  Here is how the race stands among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents:

  • 15% Marco Rubio
  • 15% Mike Huckabee
  • 13% Paul Ryan
  • 12% Jeb Bush
  • 11% Rand Paul
  •   8% Scott Walker
  •   6% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  •   1% John Kasich
  • 14% undecided

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus (Second Choice)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

2/11: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to 2016, if Hillary Clinton were to seek the Presidency and receive her party’s nomination, how would she fare against potential Republican opponents?  Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie still a formidable candidate?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist poll.

©istockphoto/MCCAIG

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

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