5/6: Optimism Wanes amid Racial Divide in New York City… Mayor de Blasio’s Approval Rating Inches Up, but Voters Not Enthralled with His Performance

May 6, 2015 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

New York City voters are increasingly pessimistic about life in the Big Apple.  When asked about the overall direction of the city, the electorate divides.  49% report things are going in the wrong direction, and 45% say they are moving in the right one.  This is the first time since November of 2013, just before Mayor Bill de Blasio was elected, that the proportion of voters who think the city is on the right track has dipped below 50%.  Although a stark racial divide exists on this question, there has been a decrease in the proportions of both white and African American voters who think the city is moving in the right direction.

To compound New Yorkers’ downbeat attitude about the city, fewer than one in five residents, 17%, believes the overall quality of life in the city has improved over the last year.  A majority, 56%, reports it has either gotten worse, 33%, or has remained the same which, in their view, is a bad thing, 23%.

On the specifics of life in New York City, only 9% of adults citywide believe the number of homeless, panhandlers, or mentally ill has decreased in the past year while more than four in ten, 42%, think this situation in New York City has gotten worse.  43% say the number of homeless, panhandlers, or mentally ill on city streets has remained the same.  One bright spot does exist.  Six in ten residents, 60%, have either a great deal of confidence, 25%, or a fair amount of confidence, 35%, in the police officers in their community to protect them from violent crime.

Opinions differ based on race on these questions.  This polarization is also prominent in attitudes toward New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio.  Views also differ based on the socioeconomic status of city dwellers.

Opinions about New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio are incongruous.  The mayor’s overall job approval rating has inched up to 44% from 39% in March 2014, and nearly six in ten voters, 59%, have a favorable impression of him.  However, only 40% of voters consider de Blasio to be changing New York City for the better, and a majority of voters, 53%, do not think his policies are historic and transforming the city.

On the specifics of Mayor de Blasio’s job performance, attitudes are lukewarm.  While pluralities of residents citywide approve of how he is handling the city’s schools, 47%, and economic development, 47%, they divide about de Blasio’s performance on crime.  Regarding the New York City budget, 42% disapprove and 40% approve, but a notable 18% are unsure how to rate Mr. de Blasio on this issue.  Mayor de Blasio’s score on his handling of the relationship between police and the community is in negative territory.  Not surprisingly, there is a substantial difference in opinion along racial lines.

Mayor de Blasio, as mentioned above, is well-liked by a majority of New York City voters.  The mayor is viewed by, at least, a majority of voters as someone who cares about the average person, a good leader, and a unifier who can get things done.  However, on each of these questions, there has been a dip in the proportions of voters who perceive de Blasio positively.  The mayor is also viewed as a man of action.

A majority of voters, though, considers de Blasio to be irresponsible when he arrives late for public events, and they divide about whether or not the mayor is spending too much time discussing policy on the national level and not focusing enough on what he can be doing for New York City.

What does all of this mean for de Blasio in 2017?  A plurality, 47%, reports he deserves to be re-elected.

On policy questions, more than three in four residents, 77%, support increasing the minimum wage.  But, more than six in ten, 63%, oppose charging for plastic grocery bags and hiring more police if it means cutting other city programs, 62%.

“Depending upon one’s perspective of Mayor de Blasio, the glass is either half full or half empty,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “Many New Yorkers are troubled by the direction and conditions of the city although they generally like the mayor.”

Click Here for Complete May 6, 2015 NBC 4 New York/The Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

Poll points:

  • Voters in New York City divide about the way things are going in the city.  49% believe the city is moving in the wrong direction while 45% say it is moving in the right one.  There has been a shift on this question since it was last reported in March 2014.  At that time, a majority, 53% considered New York City to be on track while 42% thought it was off course.  This is the first time since November 2013 that fewer than half of voters think the city is moving in the right direction (Trend).
  • Racial differences exist.  African American voters, 53%, are more likely than whites, 35%, to say the city is moving in the right direction.  Still, there has been a decline in the proportions of both African American and white voters who say the city is on course since the spring of 2014.  At that time, 60% of African Americans and 45% of whites thought the city was on track.
  • Voters in Manhattan, 50%, are more likely than those in the other boroughs to say the city is on the right course.  A majority in Queens and Staten Island, 52%, and nearly half, 48%, of those in the Bronx, say the Big Apple is on the wrong path.  Brooklyn voters divide with 48% reporting it is moving in the wrong direction.  44% say it is going in the right direction.
  • 17% of residents say the quality of life in New York City has gotten better over the past year while one in three, 33%, says it has gotten worse.  47% report it has remained the same.  Of those, 23% describe the status quo as a bad thing, and 20% say the lack of change is a good thing.  Four percent who say the quality of life has remained the same do not specify whether the lack of change is good or bad.
  • Only 9% of New York City residents say the number of homeless, panhandlers, and mentally ill on the city’s streets has declined in the past year.  42% report it has increased, and 43% think it has stayed the same.
  • 60% of adults citywide have a great deal, 25%, or fair amount, 35%, of confidence in police in their community to protect them from violent crime.  18% have some faith in the New York City Police Department, and 20% have very little confidence.
  • White residents, 76%, are more likely than Latinos, 54%, and African Americans, 49%, to trust their local police, at least a fair amount, to keep them safe from violent crime.
  • Looking at the City Council’s move to decriminalize certain offenses, 66% support decriminalizing being in a park after dark, and 63% support downgrading bicycling on sidewalks to a civil violation.  A majority, 55%, thinks public consumption of alcohol should be decriminalized, and nearly half, 49%, say the same about jumping a turnstile.  Residents divide about whether public urination should be reclassified to a civil violation.  50% believe it should while 47% say it should not.

Ratings for de Blasio a Mixed Bag

  • 44% of New York City voters think Bill de Blasio is doing either an excellent, 8%, or a good job, 36%, as mayor.  This is up slightly from 39% in March 2014.  A majority, 52%, currently rates his performance as fair, 34%, or poor, 18%.
  • White voters, 32%, are less likely than African Americans, 59%, and Latinos, 49%, to approve of how Mayor de Blasio is doing in office.  The biggest increase in the mayor’s standing has been among African Americans.  In March 2014, 50% of African American voters approved of de Blasio’s performance.  45% of Latino and 30% of white voters, at that time, said the same.
  • By borough, a majority of Manhattan voters, 53%, rates de Blasio highly.  49% of those in Brooklyn and 47% in the Bronx do the same.  Voters in Queens and Staten Island, 33%, are the least likely to approve of how Mayor de Blasio is performing in office.
  • 59% of voters citywide have a favorable impression Mayor de Blasio, unchanged from March 2014.  34% have an unfavorable view of him.  Again, racial differences are present.  74% of Latino and 73% of African American voters, compared with just 40% of whites, have a positive opinion of the mayor.
  • Four in ten voters, 40%, think Mayor de Blasio is changing New York City for the better while 20% say he is having a negative impact on the city.  About one in three, 34%, believes he is not affecting the city at all.  Six percent, down from 12%, are unsure.  While the proportion of voters who say de Blasio is improving the city has changed little from 43% last year, there has been an increase in those who say he is not having any impact.  Last year, 25% had this view.
  • African Americans, 58%, and Latinos, 53%, are more than twice as likely as whites, 21%, to say Mayor de Blasio is changing the city for the better.
  • A majority of voters, 53%, does not think the mayor’s policies are historic and transformative as he describes.  39% believe they are.
  • 47% of New York City residents approve of how Mayor de Blasio is handling the city’s public schools while 40% disapprove.  A notable 12% are unsure.
  • 47% approve of the mayor’s approach to economic development.  42% disapprove.  11% are unsure.
  • Adults in New York City divide about how Mayor de Blasio is handling crime in the city.  47% approve while 46% disapprove.
  • Residents also divide about the mayor’s handling of the city’s budget, but a notable proportion are unsure.  40% approve of de Blasio’s approach while 42% disapprove.  18% are unsure.
  • 57% of residents disapprove of how Mayor de Blasio approaches relations between the police and the community.  37% approve.

The Specifics of Mayor de Blasio’s Image

 

City Dwellers Favor Raising the Minimum Wage; Oppose Plastic Bag Surcharge and Hiring of Additional Police

  • Nearly eight in ten adults, 77%, support raising the minimum wage to at least $13 even if some businesses say it will reduce hiring.  One in five residents, 20%, opposes the proposal.  Regardless of race, borough of residence, or class status, there is overwhelming support to increase the minimum wage.
  • More than six in ten New York City residents, 63%, oppose a bill which would require grocery stores to charge 10 cents for each plastic bag.  36% support this proposal.  Regardless of race or class status, at least a majority opposes charging for plastic bags in grocery stores.
  • 62% of adults citywide are against hiring an additional 1,000 police officers if it means cutting back other city programs.  32% support this initiative.  Here, too, opposition crosses racial lines.  Latinos, 73%, and African Americans, 64%, are more likely to oppose hiring new police officers than whites, 52%.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

4/14: Removing the Label of Inevitability?

April 14, 2015 by  
Filed under Featured, Lee Miringoff

The Hillary Clinton 1.0 “Listening Tour” and the 2.0 “Listening Tour” may be the same remedy from a campaign strategy point of view, but the circumstances are very different.

caricature of Lee MiringoffWhen seeking the U.S. Senate from New York, although well-known, she had never sought elective office and had to prove herself as a candidate in her own right.  Also, there was the so-called “carpetbagger” issue which required her to learn about New York and demonstrate her ability to represent the state.  The task before Clinton now, having been a senator, candidate for president, and Secretary of State, is to re-invent herself as someone who can connect and relate to Americans.  Success will be measured in whether she can earn the public trust, rather than seem that she is once again inevitable and entitled.  Lacking stiff competition for her party’s nomination, Clinton also needs to find a way to stay relevant over the next year to avoid being defined by the GOP.  She also needs to stave off the Republicans characterizing the political agenda.  The trip to Iowa seems like a good place to begin and the drive there an interesting attention grabber.

Right now, Clinton has a clear path to the nomination.  But, Democrats do want to have a dialogue.  She hopes the listening tour provides that interaction.  The general election is more of a 50-50 proposition.  Demographic changes are in her favor.  When Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, 87% of the electorate was white, and only 13% were people of color.  Fast forward to 2012, white voters represented only 72% of the electorate and people of color had more than doubled to 28%.  Will the Obama coalition turn out and be solid for Clinton?  Will the GOP make any inroads with Latino voters?

Offsetting this “Demography is Destiny” thesis is the so-called “curse of the third term.”  In 1988, Bush 41 was elected following President Reagan’s election and re-election.  The previous time a president served a full eight years and then someone of the same party was elected was Rutherford B. Hayes following President Grant.  History may repeat itself, but it doesn’t often.

3/9: Bush and Walker Emerge as Republican Top Tier… Clinton Maintains Large Lead over Democratic Rivals

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker lead the pack of potential Republicans vying for the party’s 2016 presidential nomination.  Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is the only other possible contender with double-digit support.  Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Bush, 19%, and Walker, 18%, are virtually tied.  But, while Bush receives just slightly more support than he garnered in McClatchy-Marist’s December survey, Walker’s support has grown from only 3% last time.

Walker’s gains are across the board.  But, key to his emergence is his appeal to conservative Republicans and Tea Party supporters.

When looking at what Republicans want in their nominee, there has been a slight, but interesting, shift.  While nearly six in ten Republicans and Republican leaning independents say they value a candidate who stands on conservative principles over someone who can win, the proportion who stresses electability has increased.

Turning to the contest for the Democratic nomination, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still the odds-on favorite, leading her potential rivals by more than four-to-one.  Like their Republican counterparts, some Democrats have reconsidered what is more important in their party’s nominee.  In December, while nearly six in ten Democrats and Democratic leaning independents preferred a candidate who would re-direct the nation from President Obama’s policies over a candidate who continued them, Democrats now divide.

How do several of the Republican candidates fare against Clinton in potential general election contests? With only four points separating them, Walker and Clinton are most competitive.  But, Clinton also fails to reach 50% against Walker, Bush, and Senator Marco Rubio from Florida.

“The most notable change in this poll from December is the emergence of Scott Walker as a contender for 2016,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “On the Democratic side, Clinton is still way out in front.  But, it will be interesting to see if the email issue impacts her support among Democrats moving forward or if it taps into concerns some voters have about her for the general election.”

Complete March 9, 2015 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Poll points:

  • In the race for the 2016 Republican nomination, 19% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate support former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.  A similar 18% favor Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker while former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee receives 10%.  Nine percent back retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson whereas Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has 7%.  Six percent support New Jersey Governor Chris Christie while Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has 5% of the vote.  Senator Ted Cruz of Texas receives 4%, and former Texas Governor Rick Perry has 3%.  Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and former business executive Carly Fiorina each garners 2%.  One percent supports Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.  More than one in ten, 13%, is undecided.
  • Bush and Walker emerge from a very crowded Republican field.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in December, Bush’s support was 16%.  Walker has gained the most ground.  His support has grown by 15 percentage points, from 3% three months ago to 18% now.  Huckabee, the only other candidate with double-digit support, is little changed from December when he received 12%.  Christie’s support has dropped from 10% to 6%.
  • Walker is bolstered by very conservative Republicans, 24%, and Tea Party supporters, 25%.
  • Looking at Bush’s support, he leads the field among moderate Republicans with 26%.
  • 58% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents say it is more important to have a candidate who stands on conservative principles while 39% report it is better to nominate someone who can win the White House.  In December, 64% thought maintaining the party’s core principles trumped nominating a candidate who could win, 33% (Trend).  This is the first time since this question has been asked that the proportion of Republicans and Republican leaning independents who favor a candidate who stands on conservative principles has dropped below 60%.
  • On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads her potential rivals by more than four to one.  60% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate favor Clinton.  Vice President Joe Biden follows with 13%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts garners 12%.  Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont receives 5%.  Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia each has 1%.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • Democrats and Democratic leaning independents divide about whether it is more important to have a nominee who continues the policies of President Barack Obama, 45%, or who moves the nation in a new direction, 47% (Trend).  In December, nearly six in ten Democrats, 58%, favored a nominee with a new vision for the nation while 38% wanted a continuation of Obama’s agenda.

Hypothetical General Election Contests: Walker Competitive Against Clinton

Poll points:

  • Clinton, 48%, and Walker, 44%, are in a close contest among registered voters.
  • Clinton, 49%, is also ahead of Bush, 42%, by 7 points.  The race has tightened between Clinton and Bush.  In McClatchy-Marist’s December survey, 53% supported Clinton, and 40% were for Bush (Trend).
  • Clinton, 49%, leads Rubio, 42%, by 7 points.
  • When matched against Perry, Clinton receives a majority, 51%, to 42% for Perry (Trend).
  • Against Paul, Clinton has an 11 point advantage.  51% of voters support Clinton compared with 40% for Paul.  Previously, Clinton, 54%, had a 14 point lead over Paul, 40% (Trend).
  • Clinton, 53%, does the best against, Cruz, 39%.  Clinton has maintained her lead over Cruz (Trend).

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

3/6: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking to the 2016 presidential race, a Republican top tier has emerged.  Which GOP hopefuls lead the pack?  Do they pose a significant threat to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who leads the potential Democratic field?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

2/19: It’s Getting Later Earlier

February 19, 2015 by  
Filed under Featured, Lee Miringoff

Some time back, we added 24 x 7 and the permanent campaign to America’s political lexicon.  But, it sure seems like we are pushing the envelope this time around with about 20 GOP wannabes off and (almost) running for their party’s nomination.  On the Democratic side, things are atypically more organized with Hillary Clinton pretty much jogging around the track by herself.  Cast in the role of inevitable this election cycle may play out better for her at least as far as the Democratic nod is concerned.

caricature of Lee MiringoffLast night, I was co-teaching Political Communication at Marist College along with Mary Griffith, The Marist Poll’s director of Media Initiatives and Polling News.  The discussion moved onto the 1968 campaign and how Robert Kennedy didn’t declare his candidacy until that March after the New Hampshire primary.  Recognizing that the rules of selecting nominees are wholly different than they were back then when I was still in high school… nonetheless, this drawn out testing of the waters, forming exploratory committees, and then, finally taking the plunge seems a bit overplayed this time.

Now, we are as guilty as anyone else, although not perhaps as guilty as the potential candidates, on jumping the starting gun.  We have already conducted a series of polls, along with our NBC News media partner, of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.  We have also done several national trial heats with the McClatchy News Service.

So, 24 X 7 and the permanent campaign welcome to 2016!

2/15: 2016 Wide Open GOP Field in Early Caucus and Primary States… Clinton Solid Front-Runner on Democratic Side

February 15, 2015 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Taking an early look at the key presidential caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, a Republican front-runner fails to emerge.  In Iowa, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker vie for the top spot among the state’s potential Republican electorate.

In New Hampshire, Bush, Walker, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie each receives double-digit support.  Turning to South Carolina, the state’s favorite son, Senator Lindsey Graham, battles Bush, Walker, Huckabee, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson for the lead.

The picture is much clearer on the Democratic side.  Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the odds-on favorite for her party’s nomination.  Clinton outpaces her closest Democratic competitors by very wide margins in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

However, in hypothetical general election matchups, despite edging her GOP rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton falls short of 50% in each of the three states polled.  In South Carolina, when paired against Bush or Walker, Clinton garners about what President Obama received in 2012 against Mitt Romney.

“Top tier?  The morning line for these critical states points to a rough and tumble Republican nomination battle.  Seven of the 11 potential GOP candidates has double-digit support in, at least, one of the states, but no one breaks 20% anywhere,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Not so for the Democrats where Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead.”

 

Complete February 15, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina

Complete February 15, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Tables of Iowa

Complete February 15, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire

Complete February 15, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Tables of South Carolina

 

Republicans and Democrats Satisfied with Candidates

Poll points:

Clinton Ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire, Not in South Carolina

Poll Points:

  • Among registered voters in Iowa, Clinton, 48%, is ahead of Bush, 40%.  Clinton, 49%, also outpaces Walker, 38%, statewide.
  • In New Hampshire, Clinton, 48%, edges Bush, 42%.  Against Walker, Clinton has 49% to 42% for Walker.
  • Bush, receives 48%, and Clinton, 45%, in South Carolina.  Clinton garners 46%, and Walker receives 46% when matched in the state.

Voters on the Issues

In Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, more than six in ten voters in each state find a candidate who favors raising taxes on the wealthy to be acceptable.  This is especially true in Iowa, where 73% of voters have this view.  Majorities of voters in all three states also find a candidate who supports repealing the federal health care law, who backs immigration reform, or who promotes action to combat climate change to be preferable.  A candidate who supports Common Core education or favors increased military action against ISIS is also deemed satisfactory to majorities of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

However, registered voters are less likely to find a candidate who opposes same-sex marriage to be acceptable.

On many of these questions, there is a notable divide between the potential Republican and Democratic electorates.

Poll points:

 

Job Creation and Economic Growth Key Issue

Residents in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina consider job creation to be the most important issue in the 2016 election.  Jobs and the economy is also the most pressing concern for the potential Democratic and Republican electorates with the exception of Iowa where the deficit and government spending is the top priority for the potential Republican electorate for 2016.

Poll points:

  • 30% of adults in Iowa consider job creation and economic growth to be the most important issue in the 2016 presidential election.  Deficit and government spending, 21%, military action against ISIS, 17%, and health care, 15%, follow.  11% cite income equality while looking out for the interests of women is the priority for 3% of Iowa residents.
  • Among Iowa’s potential Republican electorate, the deficit and government spending, 32%, tops the list followed by military action against ISIS, 25%, and jobs, 23%.  The potential Democratic electorate prioritizes jobs, 32%, followed by health care, 20%, and income equality, 19%.
  • There is little consensus about Iowans’ second most pressing issue.  Similar proportions of adults mention job creation, 24%, health care, 22%, and the deficit and government spending, 20%.  15% put military action against ISIS at the top of their list while 12% cite income equality.  Six percent select looking out for the interests of women.
  • Job creation and economic growth, 33%, is the most important issue to New Hampshire adults.  The deficit and government spending, 19%, health care, 18%, and military action against ISIS, 14% follow.  11% place income equality at the top of their priority list while only 2% think looking out for the interests of women to be the most important issue in the upcoming election.
  • When looking at New Hampshire’s potential Republican electorate, jobs, 33%, rank number one.  The deficit and government spending with 28% and military action against ISIS at 20% follow.  Among the potential Democratic electorate, jobs, 34%, is tops followed by health care and income equality, each at 21%.
  • When it comes to the second choice issue for New Hampshire adults, job creation and economic growth, 22%, and health care, 22%, top the list.  Military action against ISIS, 20%, and the deficit and government spending, 18%, are close behind.  Income equality, 9%, and looking out for the interests of women, 7%, round out the list.
  • 32% of South Carolina adults think the key issue in the 2016 election is job creation and economic growth.  Health care, 20%, military action against ISIS, 18%, and the deficit and government spending, 15%, also rate highly.  Eight percent believe income equality is the most crucial topic of discussion while women’s interests receive 3%.
  • South Carolina’s potential Republican electorate points to jobs, 29%, as the top priority for 2016.  The issues of military action against ISIS with 28% and the deficit and government spending at 24% are also seen as important.  For South Carolina’s potential Democratic electorate, jobs, 35%, is crucial followed by health care, 28%, and income equality, 15%.
  • Looking at the second most important issue for South Carolina adults, 25% choose job creation and economic growth.  23% select health care and 22% pick the deficit and government spending.  14% mention military action against ISIS, and 8% cite income equality.  Seven percent think looking out for the interests of women should be the priority.

U.S. Senate Race in New Hampshire Competitive

Looking at the 2016 election for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan and incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte are closely matched. 

Poll points:

  • 48% of New Hampshire registered voters support Hassan in the race for U.S. Senate while Ayotte garners 44%.  Seven percent are undecided.

Approval Rating Roundup

In Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, President Barack Obama’s job performance rating is upside down.  The governors in each state are rated highly.

Poll points:

Marist Poll Methodology for Iowa

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables for Iowa

Marist Poll Methodology for New Hampshire

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables for New Hampshire

Marist Poll Methodology for South Carolina

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables for South Carolina

 

12/16: Standard-Bearers Party Favorites for 2016

December 16, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Two familiar Republican faces, former presidential nominee Mitt Romney and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, lead the crowded field of potential candidates for the GOP nomination in 2016.  Looking at what Republicans and Republican leaning independents want in a nominee, close to two thirds prefer a candidate who stands on conservative principles rather than a nominee who can win.  However, there has been a slight shift in opinion toward selecting a nominee with a viable chance of winning the White House.

On the Democratic side, there has been a major change in what the Democrats want in their presidential nominee.  Close to six in ten Democrats and Democratic leaning independents prefer a candidate who will move the nation in a new direction and not someone who will continue the policies of President Barack Obama.  One year ago, Democrats divided between charting a new course and continuing the current Democratic agenda.

What does this mean for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?  If she were to seek the Presidency, Clinton is the odds-on favorite to win her party’s nomination.  In several hypothetical matchups, Clinton also leads her potential Republican opponents by double digits.

But, could a third party candidate be a spoiler?  Looking at a generic ballot which includes an independent choice, neither a Democrat nor a Republican has the edge.  Close to one in five says they would support an independent candidate.

“Open seats often are a political free-for-all, and this one could very well end up that way,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, right now, Clinton is in the driver’s seat both for her party’s nomination and the general election.”

Complete December 16, 2014 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Poll points:

  • If he decided to run in the 2016 Republican primary, former GOP nominee Mitt Romney would be the choice of 19% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents to represent his party.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush receives 14% of the vote.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee each has the support of 9% while retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson garners 8%.  Five percent are for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.  Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Texas Governor Rick Perry each garners 4% while Representative Paul Ryan from Wisconsin, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker each receives 3%.  Ohio Governor John Kasich has the support of 2% while Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and former business executive Carly Fiorina each has the backing of 1%.  More than one in ten, 13%, is undecided.
  • Without Romney in the primary, Bush takes over the lead with 16% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents followed by Huckabee with 12% and Christie with 10%.  Carson receives 8%, Ryan garners 7%, and Paul has 6%.  Cruz and Perry each has the support of 5% followed by Rubio, Walker, Kasich, and Santorum with 3% each.  One percent is for Jindal, and the same proportion, 1%, supports Fiorina.  Nearly one in five, 18%, is undecided.
  • By nearly two to one, Republicans and Republican leaning independents, 64%, report it is more important to have a nominee who will stand on conservative principles than it is to have a nominee for president who can win.  Last December, 67% thought the priority was to have a nominee who stood on conservative principles (Trend).
  • Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite in the Democratic primary.  62% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents support the former Secretary of State.  Vice President Joe Biden is a distant second with 11% while Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has 9%.  Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont receives 4%.  Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley has 1% as does former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia.  11% are undecided.
  • Nearly six in ten Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, 58%, think it’s more important to have a nominee who will move the nation in a new direction while 38% want someone who will continue President Barack Obama’s policies.  This is a major shift since last December when Democrats divided.  46% said they wanted a candidate who would go in a new direction, and 49% reported they wanted a continuation of Obama’s policies (Trend).

Clinton Bests GOP Rivals by Double Digits

Poll points:

  • Clinton, 53%, has a 12 point lead against Romney, 41%, among registered voters nationally.  Six percent are undecided.  Clinton, 53%, outpaced Romney, 44%, by 9 points in February (Trend).
  • Twelve points also separate Clinton, 53%, from Christie, 41%.  Six percent are undecided.  Clinton, 51%, outdistanced Christie, 42%, by 9 points in October (Trend).
  • Clinton, 53%, is up by 13 points over Bush, 40%.  Seven percent are undecided.  In October, Clinton, 53%, was ahead of Bush, 42%, by 11 points (Trend).
  • Clinton has the support of 54% of voters to 40% for Paul.  Six percent are undecided.  Clinton, 52%, had a 9 point lead over Paul, 43%, earlier in the fall (Trend).
  • Looking at a generic ballot which includes a choice for an independent candidate, neither the Democratic candidate, 37%, nor the Republican candidate, 35%, has the advantage among registered voters.  17% of voters would support an independent candidate.  12% are undecided.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/6: Clinton Outpaces Democratic Opponents, Bests GOP in General Election Bid

October 6, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the early favorite in the 2016 presidential contest.  Clinton leads her potential opponents for the Democratic nomination by more than four-to-one among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents nationally.  Looking at her general election prospects, Clinton receives the support of, at least, a majority of registered voters in hypothetical matchups against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

On the Republican side, a front-runner has not emerged from the list of potential candidates seeking the GOP’s nomination in 2016.  Bush receives 15% among Republicans and Republican leaning independents nationally.  The only other candidates to achieve double-digit support are Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, and Chris Christie.

Complete October 6, 2014 McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Right now, the 2016 election is all about Hillary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Without a strong Democratic opponent for the nomination and a fragmented GOP field, she’s the early front-runner.”

Poll points:

  • Clinton, 64%, outpaces Biden, 15%, among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents in the race for the 2016 Democratic nomination.  Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has 8%, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 4%, and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley receives 2%.  Former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia garners 1%.
  • Clinton leads Jeb Bush, 53% to 42%, among registered voters nationally.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in August, Clinton was ahead of Bush, 48% to 41% (Trend).
  • Against Rand Paul, Clinton has the support of 52% of registered voters to 43% for Paul.  Previously, Clinton was ahead of Paul, 48% to 42% (Trend).
  • 51% of registered voters support Clinton while 42% are for Chris Christie.  In mid-August, Clinton received 47% to 41% for Christie (Trend).
  • There continues to be no clear front-runner in the race for the 2016 Republican nomination. Bush has 15% to 13% each for Paul and Ryan.  Christie garners 12% while Texas Governor Rick Perry has 7%.  Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, 6%, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, 4%, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, 4%, follow.  Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, 3%, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 3%, round out the list.  21% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents nationally are undecided.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/5: Iowa: Ernst and Braley Neck and Neck in Contest for U.S. Senate… Branstad with Wide Lead in Governor’s Race

Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley are closely matched in the race for U.S. Senate in Iowa among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early or by absentee ballot.  Intensity of support is one of the key dynamics in the race.  Ernst’s voters are more strongly committed to their candidate than are Braley’s backers.  Ernst’s supporters also describe their vote as an affirmation of her candidacy.  In contrast, Braley’s voters are more motivated by their opposition to Ernst than positive impressions of Braley.  Braley has a wide lead among the small proportion of Iowans who have already voted.

It’s a different story when it comes to the governor’s race in Iowa.  Republican incumbent Terry Branstad leads his Democratic opponent, State Senator Jack Hatch, by 22 points among Iowa likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early or by absentee ballot.  With solid job approval and favorable ratings, Branstad is held in high-esteem by many Iowans.

Complete October 5, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Iowa

“National attention is focused on the Hawkeye State because it may determine party control in the U.S. Senate, and the contest is very competitive,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The choice for voters centers more on their impressions of Ernst than Braley.  Most of Ernst’s supporters are inspired to rally for her, and many of Braley’s backers are motivated to vote against Ernst.”

Poll points:

  • Ernst, 46%, and Braley, 44%, are in a close contest in the race for U.S. Senate in Iowa among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot.
  • Although the sample of early voters is small, Braley leads Ernst, 61% to 38%.
  • Both candidates receive overwhelming support from their base, Braley has 91% among Democrats, and Ernst receives 88% from Republicans.  A plurality of independents likely to vote, 46%, supports Ernst compared with 38% for Braley.  15% of likely voters who identify as independents, the plurality of voters in the state, are undecided.
  • The gender gap is wide, but political party trumps gender.  Ernst holds an 18 point lead over Braley among men, 53% to 35%.  Braley leads Ernst by 11 points, 52% to 41%, among women.  Ernst is strongest among married men with a lead of 28 points over her opponent.  Braley leads by 26 points among single women.
  • Nearly six in ten likely voters with a candidate preference, 57%, strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.  35% are somewhat committed to their pick, and 7% might vote differently.  62% of Ernst’s supporters are strongly committed to her compared with 51% of Braley’s backers who express a similar level of support.
  • 50% of Iowa likely voters with a candidate preference for Senate report they are supporting their choice of candidate because they are for that candidate.  45% say they back their selection because they are against the other person in the race.  More than six in ten Ernst backers, 61%, say they are voting for her because they believe in her.  However, 57% of Braley’s supporters plan to vote for him because they are against Ernst.
  • Among registered voters in Iowa including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot, 45% support Braley while 44% are for Ernst.  Little has changed on this question since NBC News/Marist’s July survey when 43% supported Braley, and 43% were for Ernst.
  • 44% of Iowa likely voters have a favorable impression of Ernst, and 44% have an unfavorable one.  Among Iowa adults, Ernst’s favorable rating is upside down.  38% have a positive view of her while 43% have a negative one.  Ernst has become more well-known to Iowans but not for the better.  While there has been little movement in Ernst’s favorable rating among Iowans since July, 36% to 38%, her negative rating has gone up 11 points from 32% in July to 43% now.
  • Looking at Braley’s favorable rating, 39% of likely voters in Iowa think well of him while a plurality, 44%, has a negative view of the candidate.  Among Iowans overall, Braley, too, has made inroads with residents but not necessarily positive ones.  Since July, the proportion of Iowans with a favorable impression of him has gone from 33% to 36% while those with a negative view have increased from 31% to 40%.
  • In the governor’s race in Iowa, Branstad, 58%, leads Hatch, 36%, by 22 points among Iowa likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot.
  • Most Republicans, 96%, support Branstad.  While most Democrats, 82%, are for Hatch, 13% say they will vote for the Republican incumbent.  62% of independent likely voters back Branstad compared with 30% for Hatch.
  • The small group of early voters divide between the candidates for governor, 51% for Branstad and 49% for Hatch.
  • Close to six in ten likely voters with a candidate preference, 58%, strongly support their choice of candidate for governor in Iowa.  35% somewhat back their pick, and 6% might vote differently.  Brandstad’s supporters, 63%, are more likely than Hatch’s backers, 52%, to say they are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.
  • 60% of likely voters in Iowa have a favorable impression of Branstad, and 33% have an unfavorable one.   Among Iowans, 57% think well of Branstad, up from 51% in July.
  • Hatch is still unknown to 30% of likely voters in Iowa.  34% of voters likely to cast a ballot have a favorable impression of Hatch, and 36% have an unfavorable one.  Among Iowa residents, Hatch has become better known, but his negative rating has increased.  In July, Hatch’s favorable rating was 27% among Iowans, and now, 30% have a positive view of him.  23% of state residents had a negative view of him last summer, and now, 33% do.
  • 63% of residents approve of the job Branstad is doing in office, up from 58% in July.

Low Marks for President Obama and Congress

Although slightly improved, Iowans are dissatisfied with how President Obama is doing in office.  They are also displeased with the performances of congressional Democrats and Republicans.  About two-thirds are pessimistic about the direction of the country.

Poll points:

Obamacare Lacks Support in Iowa

More Iowa residents think the Affordable Care Act is bad idea than a good one.

Poll points:

  • 46% of adults in Iowa, including 39% of those who strongly have this opinion, say the new health care law is a bad idea.  31% think it is a good idea including 23% who strongly maintain this view.  22% of Iowans have no opinion or are unsure.  In July, 49% reported Obamacare was a bad idea, 31% said it was a good one, and 19% had no opinion of the law or were unsure.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/3: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Is Hillary Clinton still the front-runner in the 2016 presidential contest?  Has a Republican emerged from the pack of potential GOP candidates to pose a formidable challenge?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

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