4/16: Weiner Candidacy for Mayor Could Scramble Democratic Primary Contest

Nearly two years after resigning his Congressional seat due to a sexting scandal, how do New York City voters react to Anthony Weiner’s potential run for mayor?  When he is included in the field of candidates for the Democratic nomination, Weiner receives the support of 15% of Democratic voters, placing him second after frontrunner Christine Quinn.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand with Anthony Weiner in the race:

• 26% Christine Quinn
• 15% Anthony Weiner
• 12% John Liu
• 11% Bill de Blasio
• 11% Bill Thompson
•  2% Sal Albanese
•  1% Other
• 22% Undecided

Click Here for Complete April 16, 2013 NYC NBC New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Right now, a Weiner candidacy attracts double-digit support in the Democratic primary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He makes it even more difficult for any of the Democratic contenders to reach the needed forty percent to avoid a run-off.”

When Democratic voters are asked to select their preference in the primary for New York City mayor without Anthony Weiner in the race, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn continues to outpoll her rivals.  However, her support has declined from a similar survey conducted in February.

Among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner in the race:

• 30% Christine Quinn
• 15% Bill de Blasio
• 14% Bill Thompson
• 11% John Liu
•   2% Sal Albanese
•   2% Other
• 26% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, 37% of Democratic voters including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate supported Quinn.  13% backed Thompson, and 12% were for de Blasio.  Nine percent supported Liu while only 2% backed Albanese.  One percent was for another candidate, and 26% were undecided.

To punctuate the fluidity of the Democratic primary contest, only 34% of Democrats who have a candidate preference are firmly committed to that candidate.  30% are somewhat behind their pick while 35% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.  In February’s survey, three in ten Democrats with a candidate preference — 30% — said they strongly supported their choice.  34% were somewhat in their candidate’s corner while 32% thought they might vote differently on primary day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

When Weiner is not in the Democratic primary field, Quinn and de Blasio are each four percentage points higher, and Thompson has three percentage points more in support. Undecided is also four percentage points higher when Weiner is not listed as a candidate.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor with Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

A Redemption Story?  Democrats Not Keen on Weiner Run for Mayor, But…

As Weiner contemplates his return to elective politics, 40% of registered Democrats want Weiner to seek the mayoralty, while 46% do not want him to run.  14% are unsure.  Citywide, only 37% want him to run, while 47% do not want to see him become a candidate for mayor this year.  16% are undecided.

However, these numbers have improved for Weiner since a similar Marist Poll conducted last October.  At that time, only 28% of registered Democrats wanted Weiner to throw his hat into the ring.  57% did not, and 14% were unsure.  Among all registered voters, only one in four – 25% — wanted Weiner to enter the contest for mayor and 58% did not want him to run. 17% were unsure.  At the height of Weiner’s political difficulties in June 2011, 25% of voters wanted Weiner to run for mayor.  56% did not, and 19% were unsure.

Weiner’s favorability has also improved. He now has a net positive rating among registered Democrats.  45% of Democrats have a favorable view of Weiner while 41% have an unfavorable impression of him.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Two months ago, his rating was upside down.  Only 34% of Democrats viewed Weiner favorably at that time, and 43% had an unfavorable impression of him.  23% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.

Overall, 39% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Weiner, while 43% have an unfavorable impression of him.  19% are unsure or have never heard of him. This is also an improvement from two months ago when only 30% had a positive impression of Weiner, and 46% did not think well of him.  24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him at that time.

Would New York City voters consider casting their ballot for the scandal-scarred former congressman?  Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider voting for him for mayor.  Five percent are unsure. Among all registered voters, 40% say that they would consider voting for him. But, 52% would not, and 8% are unsure.

Is it a question of character?  There’s little consensus.  37% of Democrats think Weiner has changed as a person in the past two years while 32% believe he has not reformed. 31% are unsure.  Citywide 33% of registered voters think he has changed during this time, 33% believe he has not, and 34% are unsure.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner?

Table: Has Former Congressman Anthony Weiner Changed as a Person?

All Democratic Hopefuls Viewed Less Favorably

 59% of New York City Democrats have a positive impression of Quinn while 23% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure.  Slightly fewer Democrats now think well of Christine Quinn.  Two months ago, nearly two-thirds of Democrats, 65%, had a favorable opinion of her.  17% had an unfavorable one, and 18% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

What are Democrats’ views toward the other candidates in the field?

• 43% have a favorable view of Bill Thompson.  21% have an unfavorable one, and 36% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, almost half of Democrats — 49% — had a positive opinion of Thompson.  One in five — 20% — had an unfavorable one, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
• Looking at de Blasio’s image, 42% of Democrats think well of him while 23% do not.  35% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, 48% of Democrats had a favorable impression of de Blasio.  20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 32% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
• 40% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Liu while 32% do not.  28% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 43% had a positive impression of Liu.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 30%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
• Albanese has failed to make inroads with his party’s faithful. Just 18% of Democrats have a positive view of him.  27% have an unfavorable impression of Albanese, and a majority — 55% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 26% thought well of Albanese, 20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 54% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Quinn Outdistances Lhota…Weiner Also Has Advantage Over GOP Hopeful

 Looking ahead to the general election, Christine Quinn gets the nod from a majority of voters citywide against Republican Joe Lhota.  Quinn has the support of 59% compared with 19% for Lhota.  21% of registered voters are undecided.  In February, 64% of voters backed Quinn while 18% supported Lhota.  18% were also undecided.

How does Anthony Weiner fare against Lhota?  Weiner – 51% — leads Lhota – 28% — among registered voters in New York City.  21% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota

Low Interest in Mayor’s Race

 Only 38% of registered voters are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  This includes 8% who are following the contest very closely and 30% who are watching it closely.  45% are not following it very closely, and 18% are not following it at all.

In February, 30% reported they were following the mayor’s race very closely or closely.  44% said they weren’t paying much attention to the contest, and 26% reported they weren’t watching it at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race

Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Shows Slight Decline

How do registered voters think Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office?  46% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who think Bloomberg is doing an excellent job in office and 34% who believe he is doing a good one.  32% rate the mayor’s performance as fair while 21% give Bloomberg poor marks.  One percent is unsure.

In February’s survey, 50% approved of Bloomberg’s job performance.  32% thought he was doing a mediocre job while 16% said he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

A City on Track, Says Majority

 55% of registered voters in New York City think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38% believe it is traveling on the wrong road, and 7% are unsure.  In Marist’s February survey, 55% thought the city was on the right path.  36% reported it needed a course correction, and 8% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

2/20: A “Fair” Assessment

It might be said that in polling you get what you ask for.  That’s the case in the word choice of questions that measure the approval rating of an elected official.  Different polling organizations use different approaches.  For more than three decades, The Marist Poll, has relied upon a four-point question asking respondents to pick from “excellent, good, fair, or poor.”  “Excellent” and “good” in this measure are combined as a positive score.

In the interest of transparency, all of our poll results are released publicly sometimes creating a poll-watchers give-and-take.  This is the case in the minor dust-up in our latest NYC measure of Mayor Bloomberg.  Some have argued that our measure undercounts how well the mayor is doing because some voters who say “fair” have a positive view of his job performance.

Several points need to be made.  First, we recognize that many voters who believe that Mayor Bloomberg is doing a “fair” job would tell us, if asked, they “approve” of his job performance.  Therefore, on a two-point approve-disapprove question, his job performance would be scored somewhat higher than it is on our four-point measure. But, a two-point measure, which includes some “fair” responses as positive, represents exceedingly tepid support for the mayor and nothing you would want to build a campaign around if you are seeking to replace him next year.  It inflates his standing for 2013 beyond his campaign value.

Second, an approval rating with a four-point measure offers a look at the intensity of voters’ views… the “excellents” and the “poors.”  And, because of our long history of polling New York public officials, we can provide trend data on this question.  Third, the combined “excellent” and “good” responses can serve as a barometer of an office holder’s re-election prospects.

In the case of Mayor Bloomberg this election year, it’s a useful way to assess the potential impact of his endorsement or whether a candidate is helped or harmed by being too closely identified with him.  The results from this Marist Poll of Mayor Blomberg’s approval rating is 50%.  In fact, when New Yorkers are asked specifically whether his endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, 36% say “yes” and 44% say “no.”

The Mayor need not apologize for a decent approval rating as he approaches a dozen years in office.  But, these numbers suggest that candidates this year will not be running on the mantle of anything that resembles making their election Bloomberg’s fourth term.  Among the Democrats, City Council Speaker Quinn will need to deftly pick and choose from the city’s accomplishments.  For the other Democratic candidates, it requires them to both try to tie Quinn to the mayor while separating themselves from the pack of alternatives. The mayor’s influence is not much different for candidates vying for the Republican nomination.  It’s Rudy Giuliani’s endorsement that matters for the GOP nod.

2/15: Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

Half of registered voters in New York City — 50% — approve of the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office.  Included here are 13% who believe Mayor Mike is doing an excellent job and 37% who say he is doing a good one.  32% give Bloomberg fair grades while 16% rate his performance as poor.  Two percent are unsure.

Click Here for Complete February 15, 2013 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

There has been no change in Bloomberg’s approval rating since December when 50% applauded the mayor’s performance and bestowed upon him his highest approval rating since 2010.  33% reported Bloomberg was doing an average job while 16% said he fell short.  One percent was unsure.  Prior to Hurricane Sandy, Bloomberg’s approval rating stood at 45% in mid-October.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Bloomberg Legacy Solid

When asked how they will remember Mayor Bloomberg after he leaves office, 44% say his legacy will be a positive one.  This includes 11% who say he will be one of the city’s best mayors and 33% who report he will be thought of as an above average mayor.  37% think he will be considered about average while 12% report he will be remembered as a below average mayor.  Eight percent believe Mayor Bloomberg will be thought of as one of the worst mayors in New York City’s history.

Voters’ attitudes have changed little on this question over the past few months.  In December, 43% believed the mayor would be remembered fondly while 38% thought his legacy would be an adequate one.  11% reported the mayor would be recalled as a subpar leader while 8% went a step farther and said he would be thought of as one of New York City’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

Majority Views Direction of the City Positively

A majority of registered voters — 55% — believe New York City is moving in the right direction.  36%, though, say it is traveling in the wrong one.  Eight percent are unsure.  When NY1-Marist reported this question in December, following Hurricane Sandy, 61% were optimistic about the trajectory of the Big Apple.  31% thought its course needed to be corrected, and 7% were unsure.  Before the storm in mid-October, 51% thought New York City was moving on the proper path.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

Education and Jobs Top List of Next Mayor’s Priorities

When it comes to the next mayor’s agenda, 26% of registered voters think education should be his or her main priority.  The same proportion — 26% — says jobs should top the list.  17% want economic development to be the next mayor’s focus while housing follows with 7%.  Six percent think the priority should be crime while taxes and poverty each receives 5%.  Four percent believe security from terrorism should be the next mayor’s primary issue while 2% of voters say transportation must be at the top of his or her agenda.  One percent place race relations at the top of the list while an additional 1% thinks another issue is the most important.

When Marist last reported this question in September of 2009, jobs — 25% — and education — 20% — were also top of mind for voters.  17% of registered voters, at that time, believed that economic development should be the mayor’s top priority.  Housing was considered to be the most important by 9%.  Security from terrorism placed highest for 6% while taxes was the key issue for another 6% of voters. 17%, then, said another issue should be the mayor’s main concern.

Table: Priority for the Next Mayor

Voters with Little Interest in Mayor’s Race

Just 30% of registered voters are following the mayor’s race.  This includes 6% who are following it very closely and 24% who are watching it closely.  44% are not monitoring the contest very closely, and 26% are not following it at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race?

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

2/14: NYC Mayoralty: Quinn Leads Democratic Field…Lhota Ahead Among GOP

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will leave office at the end of the year.  So, who could be his successor?  Looking at the Democratic contest, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads her closest opponent by almost three-to-one.

Click Here for Complete February 14, 2013 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Among registered Democratic voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

• 37% Christine Quinn
• 13% Bill Thompson
• 12% Bill de Blasio
•   9% John Liu
•   2% Sal Albanese
•   1% Other
• 26% Undecided

“An open seat is attracting a crowd,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Right now, Quinn is in the driver’s seat, but the race is still very fluid.”

Quinn has improved her standing among New York City Democrats.  In fact, her support has rebounded to more than what it was last spring.  When NY1-Marist reported this question in October, Quinn received the support of 23% of Democrats.  15% backed former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  Nine percent gave their support to current City Comptroller John Liu while Public Advocate Bill de Blasio garnered 8%.  Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer had 6%, and the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, received 2%.  At that time, 37% were unsure.  In NY1-Marist’s April survey, 32% of New York City Democrats supported Quinn.

How committed to their choice are Democrats with a candidate preference?  30% strongly support their pick.  34% are somewhat behind their candidate while 32% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

What are New York City Democrats’ impressions of these mayoral aspirants?

• 65% have a favorable opinion of Quinn while 17% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
• Looking at Thompson, nearly half — 49% — have a favorable impression of him while 20% do not.  31% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• 48% of New York City Democrats have a positive view of de Blasio while 20% have an unfavorable one.  32% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• When it comes to Liu, 43% have a favorable impression of him while 27% have an unfavorable one.  30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Only 26% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Albanese while 20% have an unfavorable view of him.  A majority — 54% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

On the Republican side, former MTA Chairman Joe Lhota has the advantage over opponents for his party’s nomination but by no means a lock.  A majority of Republicans citywide — 55% — are undecided.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

• 20% Joe Lhota
•   8% George McDonald
•   5% John Catsimatidis
•   4% Tom Allon
•   3% Adolfo Carrion
•   2% A.R. Bernard
•   3% Other
• 55% Undecided

Hopefuls in the Republican field lack name recognition.  Except for Lhota, a majority of New York City Republicans do not offer an impression of the potential Republican nominees for mayor.

• 42% of GOP voters think well of Lhota while 12% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• 30% have a favorable view of Businessman John Catsimatidis while 14% have an unfavorable one.  A majority — 56% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• When it comes to former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion, 20% perceive him positively while 21% do not.  59% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Advocate George McDonald is viewed well by 18% of Republicans citywide.  17%, however, have an unfavorable impression of him.  Nearly two-thirds — 65% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Just 16% say they have a positive opinion of Manhattan Media publisher Allon.  This compares with 17% who have an unfavorable view of him.  67% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Only 12% think well of Reverend A.R. Bernard.  18% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate, and seven in ten — 70% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

While former Congressman Anthony Weiner has not announced a candidacy for public office, there has been speculation about his political intentions.  Weiner, though, has a perception problem.  Only 30% of registered voters in New York City view him favorably.  46% have an unfavorable impression of him while 24% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Adolfo Carrion Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Tom Allon Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: A.R. Bernard Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

From the Primary to the General…Democrats Outdistance GOP Hopeful Lhota
 
When it comes to November’s general election, how do the candidates fare in head-to-head matchups?  Among New York City registered voters:

• Quinn — 64% — outpaces Lhota — 18%.  18% are undecided.
• If Thompson were to face-off against Lhota, Thompson — 61% — surpasses Lhota — 19%.  20% are undecided.
• When de Blasio and Lhota square off, 60% back de Blasio compared with 18% for Lhota.  22% are undecided.
• 56% are for Liu while 20% are behind Lhota.  23% are undecided.
• In a race between Albanese and Lhota, 52% support Albanese compared with 21% for Lhota.  27% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Thompson/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Liu/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Albanese/Lhota

Third Party Candidate Makes Little Difference
 
If Adolfo Carrion decided to run on an independent line, how would the race shape up?

Among New York City registered voters:

• Quinn has the support of 59% to 17% for Lhota.  Carrion receives 8%, and 17% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – Quinn/Lhota/Carrion

Former Mayors Could Do More Harm than Good in General Election, But…
 
A candidate endorsement by Mayor Bloomberg may not bolster that candidate’s prospects.  If Bloomberg were to endorse a candidate, 36% of the electorate would be more likely to vote for that candidate while 44% would be less likely to vote for him or her.  14% report Bloomberg’s endorsement would make no difference to their vote, and 7% are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 28% said they would be more inclined to cast their ballot for a Bloomberg-endorsed candidate while 42% believed such a backing would make them less likely to support that candidate.  18% thought it would make no difference to their vote, and 11% were unsure.

What if former Mayor Rudy Giuliani were to endorse a candidate?  While Giuliani’s backing would do little to bolster such a candidate in the general election, it could pay dividends in the Republican primary.

Among New York City registered voters, 38% would be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Giuliani while 46% would be less likely to vote for that person.  Nine percent report it would make little difference to their vote, and 6% are unsure.

However, among Republicans citywide, 71% would be more inclined to support a candidate who receives Giuliani’s stamp of approval.  17% would be less likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 9% say it wouldn’t matter one way or the other.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

Table: Impact of Giuliani Endorsement

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

12/3: NYC Not Prepared for Sandy, Says Majority, But Most Public Officials and Agencies Weather Storm

Five weeks after Hurricane Sandy pummeled the East Coast, nearly six in ten New York City residents — 58% — think the city was not properly prepared to battle the monster storm.  38% believe New York City’s preparation to respond to the storm was adequate, and 4% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete December 3, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“For the most part New Yorkers say the city was not ready to handle the superstorm,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Despite this view, most are positive about the official response.”

Not surprisingly, residents who were most affected by the storm are more likely to say New York City was ill-prepared to deal with such a cataclysmic event.  77% of these residents have this view.  This compares with 60% who were directly affected, and 56% who were not directly affected by it.

 By borough:

• In Staten Island, 61% of residents think the city’s preparation missed the mark while 36% say it was on target.  Two percent are unsure.
• In Queens, 60% have a negative view of how the city prepared while 38% have a positive one.  Two percent are unsure.
• 58% of Brooklyn residents believe the city was not prepared to deal with Sandy while 36% think it was.  Six percent are unsure.
• Among residents in Manhattan, 58% say the city’s preparation fell short while 41% thought it was a result of proper planning.  Two percent are unsure.
• In the Bronx, 55% of residents report New York City was not ready to deal with the storm.  41% believe it was, and 4% are unsure.

What do residents think of how public officials and agencies handled the storm?

• Seven in ten residents in New York City — 70% — approve of how Mayor Michael Bloomberg dealt with Sandy while 25% disapprove.  Five percent are unsure.  Among those who were most affected, 53% approve of Bloomberg’s actions.
• New York Governor Andrew Cuomo fares even better.  Among New York City residents, 82% believe Cuomo took the right steps to handle the hurricane.   10% disapprove of his approach, and 8% are unsure.  Even 78% of those most affected by the storm give the governor high marks.
• 81% of New York City residents praise New Jersey Governor Chris Christie for how he dealt with Hurricane Sandy.  Seven percent disapprove, and 13% are unsure.  Among those who were most affected by Sandy, 72% think well of how Christie dealt with the storm.
• President Barack Obama — 85% –fares the best in the eyes of New York City residents.  13%, though, disapprove of his actions.  Two percent are unsure.  More than three in four New York City residents most affected — 76% — applaud the president’s response to Hurricane Sandy.
• About two-thirds of city dwellers — 65% — think well of how Con Edison managed the situation.  28% thought the power company fell short, and 7% are unsure.  Among those who were most affected, 55% are positive about Con Ed’s performance.
• It’s a far different story for LIPA.  Only 20% of New York City residents say the utility company’s response was on target.  A majority — 54% — disapproves, and 26% are unsure.  Just 19% of those who were most affected by the storm think LIPA did a good job dealing with it.
• 76% of residents in the city give the MTA a thumbs-up. 18% disapprove of how it dealt with the storm, and 6% are unsure.  A similar 73% of adults most affected by the storm think well of the MTA’s actions to handle Hurricane Sandy.
• Almost seven in ten in the city — 69% — think well of how the New York City Department of Education managed the situation.  20% disapprove, and 11% are unsure.  Even 65% of those most affected approve of how the agency dealt with the situation.
• Looking at the New York City Housing Authority, there is a divide.  39% of residents approve of how the agency handled Sandy while 35% disapprove.  A notable 25% are unsure.  Only 36% of those who were most affected by the storm approve of how the NYCHA handled Hurricane Sandy.
• Nearly two-thirds of city dwellers — 64% — have a favorable view of FEMA’s response to the storm.  24% believe the agency missed the mark, and 13% are unsure.  Among those most affected, 59% approve of how FEMA dealt with the storm.

Table: New York’s Preparedness to Deal with Hurricane Sandy

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Table: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Table: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Table: President Barack Obama’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Table: Con Edison’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Table: LIPA’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Table: MTA’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Table: New York City Department of Education’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Table: New York City Housing Authority’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Table: FEMA’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy

Most Think Sandy United the Big Apple, But…

87% of residents in New York City believe Hurricane Sandy mostly united people in New York City.  Eight percent say it mostly divided them, and 4% are unsure.

However, when it comes to the allocation of aid post-Sandy, there is a split.  46% of adults citywide believe some neighborhoods affected by the storm were treated better by the city than others.  44%, however, think help was provided fairly.  10% are unsure.

Those who were most affected by the hurricane — 64% — are more likely to report an unbalanced distribution of assistance following the storm compared with those who were directly affected by Sandy — 49% — and those who were not directly affected by the storm — 43%.

By borough:

• A slim majority of residents in Manhattan — 51% — believe some neighborhoods were treated better than others.  This compares with 38% who say help was provided fairly.
• In the Bronx, 49% of residents believe resources were not distributed well while 44% think they were not.
•  48% of adults in Brooklyn say some neighborhoods affected by the storm were treated better than others.  40%, though, think help was provided fairly.
• In Queens, more than four in ten residents — 41% — report assistance was not fairly distributed while 48% believe it was.
• Among those in Staten Island, 38% say the city treated some neighborhoods better than others, but 54% believe aid was given out fairly.

Table: Whether Hurricane Sandy Mostly United or Divided New York City

Table: Allocation of Assistance Following Hurricane Sandy

Nearly One in Five Say City Will Never be the Same

While most residents believe New York City has either returned to normal or will eventually do so, a notable proportion believes the Big Apple will never be what it was before Hurricane Sandy.  16% say the city has already recovered while 65% think it will eventually return to what it was.  19%, however, think it will never be the same.

Residents who were the most affected by Sandy are the most pessimistic.  30% of these residents think the city is forever changed in the wake of the storm.  Still, 64% of these residents believe the city will eventually return to normal.

Table: Whether or Not New York City will Return to Normal Following Hurricane Sandy

Optimism in NYC Reaches Highest Level in Six Years

While Hurricane Sandy may have left a path of destruction behind, that has not broken the spirits of more than six in ten registered voters in New York City.  61% believe New York City is moving in the right direction while 31% say it is traveling in the wrong one.  Seven percent are unsure.  The proportion of voters who think the city is moving in the right direction is the largest since March of 2006.  At that time, 64% of voters said the Big Apple was on track.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in its October survey, 51% of registered voters citywide thought the Big Apple was on the right path while 38% said it was on the wrong one.  10%, then, were unsure.

Regardless of party or borough, more voters believe the city is moving in the right direction.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

Bloomberg Approval Rating Highest Since 2010

50% of registered voters in New York City believe Mayor Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 15% who think he is doing an excellent one and 35% who say he is doing a good one.  33% rate Bloomberg’s performance as fair while 16% say it is poor.  One percent is unsure.  This is the highest job approval rating Bloomberg has received since October of 2010.  At that time, the same proportion — 50% — gave the mayor high marks.

In NY1-Marist’s October 2012 survey, 45% of registered voters had a favorable view of Bloomberg’s performance as mayor.  32% thought the job he was doing was average while 20% said it was subpar.  Three percent, at that time, were unsure.

By borough:

• The mayor does best among Manhattan voters.  Here, 67% applaud Bloomberg’s performance, up 22 percentage points from October.
• 46% of Brooklyn voters also think well of how Bloomberg is doing his job.  In October, 38% held this view.
• Among Bronx voters, 43% approve of how Mayor Bloomberg is doing his job, compared with 50% two months ago.
• In Queens, 46% of registered voters give the mayor’s performance a thumbs-up.
• Looking at Staten Island, 41% give Bloomberg’s performance high marks.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Bloomberg and Giuliani Vie for Title of NYC Mayor Who Would Best Handle Hurricane…Bloomberg Legacy Intact

Although Mayor Bloomberg tops the list of mayors who could best handle a weather crisis, Rudy Giuliani follows close behind in the opinion of New Yorkers.  39% of adults in the city have this view of Bloomberg, 37% believe Rudy Giuliani would have best tackled the situation.  Ed Koch is thought by 9% to have best dealt with the storm compared with just 4% who have this impression of David Dinkins.  10% are unsure.

When it comes to Bloomberg’s overall legacy, a plurality of voters — 43% — expect him to be remembered positively after he leaves office.  Included here are 10% who say he will be thought of as one of the city’s best mayors and 33% who report he will be considered an above average mayor.  38% think Bloomberg will be thought of as about average while 11% report his legacy will be a below average one.  Eight percent go so far as to say he will be remembered as one of New York City’s worst mayors.

There has been little change on this question since October when 43% of registered voters in the city believed Bloomberg would leave behind a positive legacy.  34% said he would be thought of as an average mayor while 12% thought he would be remembered as a below average one.  Eight percent, at that time, believed he would be considered one of New York City’s worst mayors.

Table: NYC Mayor Who Would Have Best Handled Hurricane Sandy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/18: Quinn Still Leader of Democratic Field, But…

Looking ahead to the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has the support of 23% of Democrats citywide.  Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson follows with 15%.  Nine percent of registered Democrats citywide are for current Comptroller John Liu while 8% support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio.  Six percent back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, receives 2%.  Nearly four in ten registered Democrats in New York City — 37% — are unsure.

Click Here for Complete October 18, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“There’s still a long way to go before Democrats go to the polls,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Nearly four in ten Democrats in the city are undecided.”

When compared with NY1-Marist’s April survey, more Democrats in the city are unsure about whom to support in the contest.  At that time, more than three in ten New York City Democrats — 32% — favored Quinn.  12% supported Thompson, and 10% were for de Blasio.  Liu received the backing of 9% while Stringer garnered 7%.  Only 1% of Democrats were behind Allon, and 29% were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Plurality Says, “No Go” for Kelly Mayoralty

46% of registered voters in New York City do not want Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to run for mayor.  35% support a Kelly candidacy.  19% are unsure.

In NY1-Marist’s July 2011 survey, voters divided.  42% believed Kelly should stay out of the race while the same proportion — 42% — wanted him to throw his hat into the ring.  16%, at that time, were unsure.

Other well-known names have been bandied about as possible mayoralty candidates.  How do they fare?  58% of registered voters citywide do not want Anthony Weiner to run for mayor while one in four — 25% — does.  17% are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since NY1-Marist last reported it in July of 2011.  At that time, 64% of voters citywide did not want Weiner to seek the office while 26% did.  One in ten, at that time, was unsure.

When it comes to Eliot Spitzer, 57% of registered voters want him to stay out of the contest while 30% would like to see him enter it.  13% are unsure.  Here, too, there is little difference from the last time this question was asked in July of 2011.  At that time, the same proportion — 57% — reported Spitzer should not run for mayor while 33% thought he should.  Nine percent, then, were unsure.

What about actor Alec Baldwin?  66% of registered voters say they don’t want the actor to turn politician.  18%, though, would like to see Baldwin enter the contest.  16% are unsure.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Actor Alec Baldwin 2013 Mayoralty?

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

45% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 10% who say he is doing an excellent job and 35% who report he is doing a good one.  32% report his performance is fair while 20% call it poor.  Only three percent are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks.  Included here were 12% who said he was doing an excellent job and 32% who believed he was doing a good one.  33% gave the mayor average grades while 22% thought his performance was subpar.  Only 1%, then, was unsure.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Bloomberg’s Legacy

How will Mayor Bloomberg be remembered after he leaves office?  43% of registered voters believe he will leave a positive legacy.  This includes 12% who think he will be remembered as one of the city’s best mayors and 31% who say he will be considered an above average mayor.  34% think Bloomberg will be thought of as an average mayor while 12% report he will be remembered as a below average one.  Eight percent have low expectations and say Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

Little has changed on this question since April.  At that time, 39% thought Bloomberg would leave a positive legacy behind.  39% said he would be considered an average mayor while 13% believed he would be looked upon as a subpar mayor.  Nine percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of New York City’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

Majority Remains Optimistic about the Direction of the City

51% of registered voters citywide say the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong one.  10% are unsure.

Here, too, the findings are similar to the NY1-Marist April survey when 52% thought New York City was on the right course.  More than four in ten voters — 42% — said it was on the wrong one, and 6% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

6/4: Put Sugary Drink Ban on Ice…Ban Goes Too Far, Says Majority

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg caused a stir last week when he proposed the ban of sugary drinks larger than 16 ounces in establishments other than grocery and convenience stores.  What do New York City residents think about the proposal?  53% of adults in the Big Apple believe it’s a bad idea while 42% say it is a good one.  Six percent are unsure.

Click Here for Complete June 4, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Unfortunately for Mayor Bloomberg, New Yorkers find the glass to be half empty on his proposal to ban super-size drinks,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

By borough, the proposal is poorly received among residents in Queens and Staten Island and in Brooklyn.  58% of adults in Queens and Staten Island and 55% of those in Brooklyn say the ban is a bad idea.  However, 52% of Manhattan residents think the proposal is a good one.  In the Bronx, 49% say the plan is a bad idea while 44% think it’s a good one.

Even a majority of New Yorkers who want to lose weight — 51% — think the restriction is not a good idea.

And, while 42% of New York City adults report the idea is good health policy to fight the problem of obesity, 53% believe Bloomberg’s plan is an example of government going too far.  Five percent are unsure.

Many New Yorkers think there’s little point to the ban.  52% state the proposal won’t help people watch their weight.  45% disagree and say it will, and 3% are unsure.

The proposal made quite a splash.  67% have seen or heard about it including 39% who have heard a great deal about it and 28% who know a good amount.  16% haven’t heard or seen very much about the plan, and 17% know nothing at all about it.

When it comes to New Yorkers’ own drinking habits, the ban would affect less than one in five adults.  Just 17% of residents say they purchase a beverage larger than 16 ounces when they go out to eat, to the movies, or to a sporting event.  This includes 6% who report they do so very often and 11% who say they often do.  31% state it’s rare they make such a purchase, and 52% say they never buy super-size drinks.  Not surprisingly, 64% of those who purchase these large drinks think the mayor’s proposed ban is a bad idea.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s Proposed Ban on Sugary Drinks in NYC

Table: NYC Sugary Drink Ban: Good Health Policy or Goes Too Far?

Table: Impact of Proposed Sugary Drink Ban on People’s Weight

Table: Aware of Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s Proposed Ban on Sugary Drinks in NYC

Table: Frequency of Buying a Drink Larger than 16 Ounces

Bloomberg Approval Rating at 45%

45% of registered voters in New York City believe Mayor Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 9% who say he is doing an excellent one and 36% who report he is doing a good one.  29% rate Bloomberg’s job performance as fair while 20% think he is performing poorly.  Six percent are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last asked this question in April, 44% gave the mayor high marks.  33% said he was doing an average job while 22% believed he fell short.  Only 1%, at the time, was unsure.

By borough:

• Among voters in the Bronx, 36% approve of Bloomberg’s job performance.  This compares with 33% who thought this way in April.
• In Brooklyn, 42% praise the mayor while a similar proportion — 46% — previously gave Bloomberg a thumbs-up.
• 48% of registered voters in Queens and Staten Island believe the mayor is doing an excellent or good job in office while 44% had this opinion in April.
• Looking at Manhattan, 50% approve of Mayor Bloomberg’s job performance.  This compares with 51% who shared this view in NY1-Marist’s April survey.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

5/22: From the Primary to the General Election Campaign

Which states will prove to be key battleground states this presidential election season?  What impact could President Barack Obama’s stand on gay marriage have on the contest, and what can we expect during the campaign’s summer months?  The Marist Poll’s John Sparks visits with Marist Poll Analyst and syndicated political columnist Carl Leubsdorf who writes a weekly column for The Dallas Morning News about  this and more.

Listen to the interview below.

Listen to part 1:

John Sparks
Many states, as you know, are solidly Republican or Democrat, but there are others that are considered toss-ups that will probably decide the election. Let’s talk about these so-called battleground states. Which states are we talking about when we refer to battleground states?

Carl Leubsdorf
Okay, let me go from West to East on that and talk a little bit about the battleground states because they sort of come in groups to some extent. For example, there are three states in the Rocky Mountain area — New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado. President Obama carried all three of them last time. They all have heavy Hispanic votes and the Obama campaign is counting on them again. If in fact they do carry those states, and Governor Romney has got problems with his position on immigration and strong anti-immigration law change stand, it would put Obama very close to the 270 he needs, assuming he holds all of the states that he won last time that have been — not only that he won last time, but that John Kerry won and that Al Gore won and that Bill Clinton won. So, those are the first three.

Some would say that Arizona should be added to that group. Of course it was a heavily Republican state last time as the home state of John McCain. The Obama campaign has made some noise as they think it’s competitive. At least one poll showed it’s competitive, and I heard yesterday of a well known Republican said privately to someone I know that named that as a battleground state and threw in Montana in addition. Bill Clinton did carry Montana in one of his elections, but I don’t think anyone thinks that’s… If Montana’s a battleground state, Mitt Romney is in deep doo-doo as they say.

Listen to part 2:

Carl Leubsdorf

The next state as we move from West to East is Iowa. Iowa’s a state that’s bounced back and forth lately. It was carried by Obama last time. There was… the Republicans have quite a bit of hope for Iowa. The campaign they had there for many months beat up on President Obama. A curious thing about Iowa though is that Iowa’s economy is unusually good. Its unemployment rate is much lower than the national average, and of course the question is does that rebound to Obama’s advantage, or can the Republican successfully claim that’s because of their Republican governor? The most recent poll showed Obama up by about nine or ten points in Iowa.

One of the key battleground areas is the, and always is, is the industrial belt that runs from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin. There are three states there that have been solidly Democratic in recent years – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Democrats are considered ahead in all three. There’s some question whether the Republicans really can make a dent, but they are talking optimistically about Michigan and possibly Wisconsin.

On the other side, there’s Indiana which has been a pretty safely Republican state. It went from a last time and the first time the Democrats have carried it,  I think, since Lyndon Johnson, but I don’t think anyone thinks that the Democrats are going to carry Indiana this time unless there’s an Obama landside.

And then we have Ohio. Ohio has been an essential part of almost every victorious coalition in recent years. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying Ohio, and most successful Democrats have carried it also. President Obama did carry it last time. And like Wisconsin and like Michigan elected a Republican governor in 2010; however, that governor, John Kasich, former congressman, isn’t very popular.  Like Scott Walker in Wisconsin, he initiated legislation to curb government employee unions, and there was a referendum on it, and he got beaten. But, Ohio is going to be a battleground. The latest polls show Obama a point or two ahead, but clearly that’s definitely up for grabs.

Listen to part 3:

Carl Leubsdorf

The next area where we have battleground states is in the — sort of the upper South. We’ve got Virginia and North Carolina. Again, President Obama carried both of those, and what was unusual there was that Virginia has been so Republican in recent years that he was the first Democrat to carry it since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Virginia was the only deep South state that Jimmy Carter did not carry in its first election in 1976. Many people think Virginia and maybe Ohio are the battleground states of all battleground states, that if Obama carries either one of them, he’ll probably be re-elected. A couple of recent polls showed Obama up 8 or 9 points in Virginia, which surprised some people because another poll at the same time showed their hotly-contested Senate race between former Senator George Allen the Republican and former Governor Tim Kaine the Democrat to be about even, and most people sort of think that the Senate race and the Presidential race will be within a point or two of each other.

North Carolina is a state that President Obama carried narrowly last time by about 13,000 votes.  It’s where the Democratic convention is being held in Charlotte, but the Democrats have got a lot of problems in that state. Their governor is not popular and is not running for re-election. The Republicans are favorite to win the governorship. There have been some problems in the state Democratic party. The fundraising for the convention hasn’t been going well, and I’m sure we’ll talk about this a little bit later, but the recent referendum to pass a constitutional amendment declaring marriage to be between only one man and one woman indicated that conservative sentiment still runs strong in the state.

The other Southern state that is definitely up for play is Florida. Again, that’s a state that has been a crucial state in every one of the last several elections. It was, of course, the decisive state in 2000 with the famous court battle. The Supreme Court ruled in honor of George W. Bush. President Clinton carried it, I think, one of the two times, and of course Obama carried it last time.  The polling there shows it as a very close race and up for grabs.

And, if I might add one other, it’s another state that Obama carried that has been — gone back and forth some in recent years, and that’s New Hampshire. It’s only four electoral votes, but if Al Gore had carried those four electoral votes in 2000, he would’ve been the president.  The recent poll… It’s another state where the Republicans did extremely well in 2010 electing top-heavy majorities in the legislature and kicking out two Democratic house members, although the Democratic governor was re-elected.

But again, the recent polls, they show Obama with a nine or ten point lead.  So, it looks like, at the moment, if you look at those states, that Obama’s got leads in the three Western states and in Iowa and New Hampshire, and actually if you add those to the states that have been gone Democratic in the last five elections, that would be, I think, narrowly enough for him to be re-elected without any of the big tossup states that he carried last time. So, the electoral map looks like it has its tilt to Obama at this point, but we’re going to see a lot of things happen between now and fall, and then generally some of these big states and the outcome, the national trend is going to affect them. If you look at… If you chart this, and I, in fact have done this, you’ll see that if the national Democratic tickets get 53%, which Obama got last time, a whole bunch of these states will be between 51% and 54%. If Obama gets nationally 49%, a lot of these states are going to be between 47% and 50%. They’ll go with the national trend.

Listen to part 4:

John Sparks
A lot of these early May polls that you refer to were completed before the president came out about gay marriage. I must ask you what effect you think his position will have, and then, also, was this all calculated on his part to get the issue out of the way months earlier?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, let me answer the second question first. It’s quite clear that the White House planted — have — to get this issue out of the way well before the Democratic Convention, that it is a controversial issue. They know it. I think they felt that Obama had no choice but to take the position he took, and that was always his inclination. I think there was some danger that the people who favor legalizing gay marriage nationally were going to make a big fuss about it at the Democratic Convention, and that was about the last thing that Obama needed to happen there. So, having said that, I don’t think that it came out on the White House’s schedule at all. Usually a White House or a campaign tries to orchestrate these things. Sometimes if it’s controversial, they like to put it out on a Friday night. More likely they like to put out with some background and with some events around it to show how sensible and how middle of the road their positions are. Obama’s announcement was precipitated by Joe Biden’s statement on Meet The Press. He was asked about it, and in typical Biden fashion, said what was on his mind and that, yes, he decided that gay marriage was appropriate, and that created a fire storm of questions the next day at the White House. Was he reflecting Obama? Was he trying to precipitate Obama? As I say, I think it was just Joe Biden probably knowing what Obama’s position was and was going to be, and he was asked a question, and he forgot for a moment that he’s the vice president and he’s not supposed to take the lead on these things, and he just said what was on his mind. The White House was quite angry at him. He apologized to President Obama. I think all of that showed that this wasn’t planned. Now polling shows that the country thinks by like a two-to-one majority this was calculated. I’m not sure about the wording of that question. But it certainly was a political component in the timing. I think as far as the position is concerned, Obama was heading that in direction all along.

Now what’s the effect? The national polling shows that support for gay marriage is probably a little over 50% or in the 50% range. It’s almost about the same as the answer you get when you ask about whether you approve of Obama’s performance in office or not. The problem for the Democrats is that there are areas in the Obama coalition where there will not be support for gay marriage. A lot of African Americans have conservative social values. It’s clear from the reaction of several ministers that not all of them are in support of this. Many of them in fact spoke in the pulpit against it. That said, I think the African American pride and having their first president in Barack Obama is going to override everything when that part of the electorate is concerned.

Another area that may be of greater concern are blue collar workers, white blue collar workers, especially in some of these industrial states we were talking about like Ohio and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan. Again, these are people who have shown to be quite conservative on social issues. Many of them oppose abortion rights, and this may be another handicap in Obama’s effort to get strong support in this important part of the electorate since there were already — it was already back to the primaries in 2008 made quite clear that this was not a part of the electorate that was as enthusiastic about Obama as some of the other parts of his coalition. Again here, the Democratic inclinations, the fact that these governors have sort of gone against — taken anti-union actions and the fact that Obama will make a big thing about having his actions that saved the auto industry and saved many union jobs in these areas might offset the fact that they don’t — they’re not that enthusiastic about Obama, and this didn’t help that.

So, what you see already is you see some Democratic senators in close races. I saw that Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Jon Tester in Montana in conservative generally Republican states are sort of separating themselves from the decision saying that they don’t agree with that. So, how much of a decisive issue it’s really hard to tell. The strongest feelings on the issue are from members of both sides, pro-Republican pro Democratic, who are going to vote for their candidate no matter what. The people who are most in favor of gay marriage are very enthusiastic Democrats. The lesbian/gay community is very enthusiastic for Obama and has raised a lot of money for him, and the religious conservatives who are very opposed to gay marriage, they dominate the Republican party are already going to be Romney voters. While there’s been some lack of enthusiasm early on among religious conservatives about Romney, the fact that they want Obama out of office was always going to override some of these concerns when it came to the general election.

Listen to part 5:

John Sparks
Well, we’ve heard that it’s the economy, stupid, and more specifically jobs. Doesn’t it get down to that again? And if that’s the case, there’s some that would tell you that Obama has not exactly improved the economy over the Bush administration’s watch. What do you think about that? What do you think about the economy right now, the job situation, and how Obama is going to fare?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, that’s of course the big question, and I do think that as many others who the economy in the end is going to be the decisive issue. Do people think it’s getting better, and do they have a positive outlook for the future, or do they think Obama has failed to deal with it?  And of course, the answer is mixed. Unemployment which got up as high as 10%, is now back down 8.1%, and it certainly would be great for Obama’s chances if one month before the election it got down to 7.9 and 7.8. It’s interesting because the trajectory has followed pretty much what happened under President Reagan where he had a very severe recession in the first two years of his administration. Unemployment went up, and then he had a recovery, and it was down to I think 7.4% by the time of the election. It won’t be down that low. If it were down that low, Obama would be in great shape, but it has been trending there. There was a USA Today Gallup Poll this week in which it showed increased optimism among the public about the economic future. All of that is good for Obama.

Now, what are the facts of the job situation? The facts are that in the first year of the Obama administration, the economy lost, I think, about 4 million jobs. Now, but that was certainly the recession had hit under Bush. The public attitude for the most part has continued to be that the Bush administration’s policies were more responsible for the economy than Obama who came in in the middle of it, and it took awhile for Obama’s policies, the stimulus bill and others, to have an impact on the economy. The Republicans have said for three years that it was a failure, but the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said it saved about 3 million jobs and that without it unemployment might’ve been up to the 11.5% level. But you know, the key thing on the economy is the trend. If it’s getting better, that’s good for Obama. If it’s getting worse, it’s bad for Obama. The likelihood is for a very continuation of this very slow recovery, and jobs are always the last thing to come back, so it could make all the difference in the world if unemployment is 8.3 or if it’s 7.9. And one thing that’s especially tricky here is that the October unemployment figures will come out on the Friday three days before the election. In a close race, that could really be decisive because a lot of voters wait until the final weekend to make up their decision. I mean, the Republicans are going to be 90-95% for Romney, and the Democrats are going to be 90-95% for Obama. We got the independents in the middle. We got among them a lot of moderates and suburbs, especially women, and some of these people will be undecided and may be tipped by the way the unemployment figures are.

Listen to part 6:

John Sparks
Let’s go back to something you referred to a moment ago, and that was about the president being put out with Biden on the Meet The Press statement about gay marriage.  Any chance that Obama would dump Biden?

Carl Leubsdorf
No.  No.  You know, we hear this every four years the president’s going to dump whoever it is, going replace him and do it. It hardly ever happens. It would be a total mess if it happens, and it is not going happen. The bumper stickers and the posters and all the campaign material has Biden’s name on it, as he likes to point out. So no, Obama will be and Biden will be together in this election.

John Sparks
What about Romney’s pick for a Veep, any thoughts on that – Chris Christie, and could that pick be enough to turn his fortunes around?

Carl Leubsdorf
That’s a little bit tricky. It’s always a little bit tricky for the out-of-party candidate to pick a vice president. Interesting, in recent years, the winning tickets have had in most recent elections, the presidential candidate has picked someone who could help him govern the country. So Clinton, the outsider, picked Al Gore, and George W. Bush picked Dick Cheney, and Obama picked veteran Senator Biden. Other choices have been reflected that have not worked as well, and most notably the McCain choice four years ago of Sarah Palin. I think the Sarah Palin choice has a real influence on what Romney’s going to do. The last thing he wants is a relatively unknown, relatively untested, relatively unvetted publicly candidate. So, while there’s talk of people like Susana Martinez, the Governor of New Mexico, a Hispanic woman, and there’s talk about, and Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American senator from Florida, the general feeling is that in the end Romney’s going to make a very safe choice who might, at best, help him in one of the key states. Vice president’s don’t have much effect on the outcome. I mean polling and studies have shown that for a long time, but they sometimes help a point or two in their home state. For example, if Al Gore in 2000 had picked Bob Graham, the senator from Florida, instead of Joe Lieberman, he probably would’ve carried Florida since he only lost it by 527 votes and would’ve won, and there’s several candidates who sort of fit that pattern. One is Rob Portman of Ohio. Rob Portman was in Congress. He was the budget director and the trade rep under President Bush and is now senator from Ohio, very well regarded, considered a moderate conservative, knowledgeable about budget issues, someone who could really help a president Romney deal with some of the issues he’s going to deal with.

Someone with a similar background who fits that is Mitch Daniels, the governor of Indiana. He was the budget direct also under Bush. He was the first budget director under Bush, then went back home and got elected governor of Indiana. A lot of Republicans wanted him to run for president. He’s highly regarded as an able — been an able governor. He has strong positions on social issues, which Republicans like, but he didn’t run for president because his family was against it, and there’s been no indication that his family thinks that running for vice president is okay. The good thing about it, of course, is that it’s a much shorter campaign period, but the bad thing is they’ll get all the scrutiny and all the press intrusion that political people hate.

A third one is Congressman Ryan from Wisconsin, an up and coming member of the House, the architect of the House Republican budgets, another person who could help possibly in Washington as well as in Wisconsin.

And although I mentioned that Marco Rubio is something more of a gamble, he certainly would help if they wanted to get a candidate from Florida.

Now, there are other people mentioned. You mentioned Chris Christie. There is some polling that shows that he wouldn’t help Romney carry New Jersey which has been a safe Republican, safe Democratic state in recent years. I have doubts that that is going to happen. Christie is a very boisterous, outspoken, energetic guy who likes to be in charge of things, and he does not strike me as the vice presidential type, and he strikes me as someone that would drive a president crazy. That’s something… personal capability is really important in this. When the elder George Bush was picking his vice president in 1988, there was a lot of talk about Jack Kemp who had run for president and would’ve balanced to Bush very well with the conservative wing of the Republican Party, and Bush basically said that he couldn’t stand being around Kemp, and he didn’t want him around for four years and picked Dan Quayle with whom he had a much more simpatico relationship. So, that does come into play. Most people in Washington, I think, think Portman is the front-runner at this point, but people who have tried to pick vice presidential candidates, that’s sort of tough to do.

Listen to part 7:

John Sparks
Now a few weeks ago in The New York Times, I believe it was David Brooks was floating Michael Bloomberg as a third party candidate. There’s really no possibility at this late hour for a third party candidate is there?

Carl Leubsdorf
No.  Michael Bloomberg has had ample opportunity to talk about this. There have been reports that he in fact has studied the matter and decided against it. There’s been an interesting sort of side thing to the whole presidential race. A group called Americans Elect, which was financed by a wealthy financier and attracted some interesting people from both parties, for example, Christie Todd Whitman, the former Republican governor of New Jersey; the former press secretary to Deval Patrick, who’s an African American Democrat in Massachusetts; Mark McKinnon who has worked for Texans on both parties and worked for George W. Bush and for John McCain and a bunch of other people, and they came up with this elaborate plan to get a place on all 50 ballots and then have an online primary to pick a presidential candidate. The theory was that there were all sorts of well-known people out there who might be willing to run on the third party. Well guess what, there aren’t that many. To do a third party campaign, you need someone of the stature of a Michael Bloomberg or a Ross Perot or someone like that, and this group who are just called Americans Elect has now had to sort of cancel its primary because they didn’t — none of the candidates got enough support by their ground rules, so they’re going to have to change the ground rules.

The leading candidate among those who said they were willing to do it was Buddy Roemer, the former governor of Louisiana who was an early casualty of the Republican race. There are also a bunch of people who got support who said they were not willing to run. The one who got the most support was Ron Paul who, of course, ran in the Republican race and is widely believed to be laying the groundwork for his son Rand Paul, the senator from Kentucky, to run in a future race, so he’s not interested in a third party. And the thing about third parties is they always get a lot of attention because they have potential for upsetting the apple cart, but in the end they hardly ever have an effect. The most famous third party effort in American history was probably when Theodore Roosevelt split with the man he had selected to succeed him, President William Howard Taft, and ran as the Progressive candidate in 1912. He took away so much support from the Republicans, in fact finished second in that race, that the Democrat Woodrow Wilson was elected. That is one of the few times there has been an effect. Now I mentioned before that New Hampshire was a state that if Al Gore had carried it in 2000, he would’ve been elected. Well, Ralph Nader running on the Green ticket got far more votes than the gap between Gore and Bush in New Hampshire, and also the same thing happened in Florida, so in a way you could say that Ralph Nader prevented Gore’s election and elected George W. Bush, but the others haven’t had an effect.

And one — just one more thing that if a third party ever caught on to the extent that it had an effect on the campaign, it had enough support to get into the national televised debates, and the requirement there is an average of 15% in a series of in the major polling organizations, I don’t think they’d ever win an election, but they might win several states. And, of course, if in a close election, which this one could be, if a third party candidate won two or three states, they could prevent either candidate from getting the 270 electoral votes you need and throw the election into the House. In the House, each state has one vote. and if the current House were to pick a president, the Republican would win. I think the Republicans control 30 state delegations and the Democrats 17. But there’s — at the moment, there’s no sign of any significant third party candidate. If the Americans Elect actually has a candidate, it’s going to be either someone like Buddy Roemer or David Walker. David Walker was the comptroller general. He’s been a big deficit hawk. He’s sort of… There are people interested in putting him on that ticket. But almost certainly it’s not going to have any effect.

Listen to part 8:

John Sparks

Carl, anything we should look for as we begin the summer phase of the campaign?

Carl Leubsdorf

I mentioned a bunch of — a group of the state polls and what’s happening there, and, of course, the election really takes place in the states. There will be a lot of attention on the national polls, and those seem to be running that Obama has a slight advantage over Romney, but that’s good for Obama, but his total in these polls is mostly in the 46-48% range which matches his job approval, and that’s no accident. That usually happens. Now the fact is with 46-48% now for Obama, the chances are that most of the undecided voters are not going to be for Obama. I mean, they know him well, and most people have made up their minds about him. So that’s a dangerous sign for any incumbent running in the 40’s and not up to 50 because of the fact that we will have only minor third party candidates; and I should mention the Libertarians nominated a ticket headed by Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico who also ran briefly for the Republican nomination. Now that he could get appointed to in New Mexico and that might affect the outcome there. But anyway, in the third party candidates, there’ll be a bunch of them. They’ll get 1-1.5% of the vote in the end, and so the winning candidates, you can probably, if you get to 49%, you probably can win the election assuming it’s in the right places. But at the moment, Obama does not have that support, but, of course, neither does Romney, and… But in the end, the national polls are a less significant indicator than all these state polls.

4/24: Bloomberg, City Schools Receive Low Grades

A majority of New York City voters may want to put Mayor Michael Bloomberg on academic probation.  While 34% approve of his handling of the city’s public schools, 56% disapprove.  10% are unsure.  This is Bloomberg’s lowest approval rating on this issue since March of 2011 when 27% approved of how he was addressing the issue.

Click Here for Complete April 24, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in September, 41% approved of the mayor’s performance on education while 48% disapproved.  11%, at the time, were unsure.

“Dissatisfaction with New York City’s public schools remains high,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “New Yorkers want the next mayor to move in a different direction.”

Key points:

• Bloomberg’s approval rating on education has dropped in the Bronx – 29% — and in Manhattan — 37%.  In September, those proportions were 40% and 48%, respectively.
• In Queens and Staten Island – 36% — and in Brooklyn — 34%, there has been little change from September when 40% and 38%, respectively, gave Bloomberg high marks on his handling of education.

Many New York City residents are not thrilled with the public schools in their neighborhoods.  Only 38% of adults citywide give their local schools good grades.  Included here are 9% who rate their public schools as excellent and 29% who say they are good.  35% believe they are doing a fair job while 18% rate them poorly.  Nine percent are unsure.  Identical proportions of registered voters in the city share these views as well.

In NY1-Marist’s September survey, 43% of those living in New York City thought well of their neighborhood schools.  30% gave them a fair rating while 18% reported they fell short.  Nine percent, at the time, were unsure.

Looking at households who have a child in the New York City public schools, 45% believe the public schools are doing either an excellent — 11% — or good — 34% — job educating their children.  37% think the schools are doing an average job while 15% believe they are falling short.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Bloomberg on Public Schools

Table: Bloomberg on Public Schools Over Time

Table: New York City Public Schools Rating

More Than Six in Ten NYC Residents Want Next Mayor to Make Changes in Education

62% of adults in New York City want the city’s next mayor to take the public schools in a different direction.  27%, however, want Bloomberg’s successor to continue with Mayor Bloomberg’s education policy, and 11% are unsure.

Key points:

• Nearly two-thirds of households with a child in the New York City public schools — 65% — want the next mayor to change the direction of education policy in the city.
• 69% of adults in the Bronx, 65% of those in Brooklyn, 60% of residents in Queens and Staten Island, and 55% in Manhattan desire changes in public schools.

Table: Next Mayor’s Direction of Education Policy in NYC

Dennis Walcott’s Approval Rating at 34%

34% of adults citywide think the city’s top educator, Dennis Walcott, is doing either an excellent — 6% — or good — 28% — job as New York City Schools Chancellor.  35% rate Walcott as fair while 14% give him a poor rating.  17% are unsure or have never heard of him.  In NY1-Marist’s September survey, Walcott’s approval rating was 31%.  38% thought he was doing an average job while 9% thought he missed the mark.  22%, at that time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Schools Chancellor Dennis Walcott Job Approval Rating

Majority Approves of Kelly’s Job Performance

As speculation continues about a mayoralty run by New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, the commissioner enjoys a 55% job approval rating.  This includes 21% of adults who believe Kelly is excelling in his position and 34% who report he is doing a good job.  28% rate the Police Commissioner’s performance as fair while 13% believe he is performing poorly.  Four percent are unsure.

Kelly’s approval rating is 70% among white residents, 48% among Latinos, and 42% among African American residents in the city.

The views of registered voters reflect those of the overall population in the city.  56% of voters give Kelly high marks.  28% think his performance is average while 13% say he has missed the mark.  Three percent are unsure.

Table: New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly Job Approval Rating

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/23: Major Shift in Perceptions of NYC’s Direction

A majority of New York City voters — 52% — currently believe the city is moving in the right direction while 42% report it is moving in the wrong one.  Six percent are unsure.  This is the largest proportion of voters to believe the city is on the right track since February of 2011.  At that time, the same proportion — 52% — had this view.

Click Here for Complete April 23, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“This is a turnabout in voters’ views of how the city is doing,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “We’ll have to wait and see if it’s a sign of positive things to come.”

When the NY1-Marist Poll last reported this question in September, just the opposite was true.  A majority — 52% –thought the city was on the wrong path while 42% said it was on the right course.  Six percent, then, were unsure.

By borough:

• A majority of voters in Queens and Staten Island — 55% — say the city is on the right path while 39% had this view in September.
• In Manhattan, 54% of voters report the direction of the Big Apple is correct.  This is little changed from NY1-Marist’s previous survey when 51% had this view.
• Nearly half of Brooklyn voters — 49% — give the city’s direction a thumbs-up while just 36% did the same in the fall.
• 47% of Bronx voters believe New York City is on the proper path.  A similar proportion of voters in this borough — 46% — had this opinion previously.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

Bloomberg Approval Rating at 44%

More than four in ten registered voters in New York City — 44% — currently approve of Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job performance.  According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 12% of registered voters in the five boroughs think the mayor is doing an excellent job while 32% say he is doing a good one.  About one-third — 33% — report Bloomberg is doing a fair job while 22% believe he is doing a poor one.  Just 1% is unsure.

Bloomberg’s approval rating is similar to the one he received when NY1-Marist last reported this question in September.  At that time, 46% gave Bloomberg high marks.  35% said he was doing a fair job, and 18% reported his performance was subpar.  Two percent, at the time, were unsure.

By borough:

• Bloomberg’s approval rating has dropped among voters in the Bronx.  33% of registered voters approve of Bloomberg’s job performance while 48% did so in NY1-Marist’s previous survey.
• Among registered voters in Brooklyn, 46% say Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office, up from 38% who thought this to be the case in September.
• Looking at voters in Queens and Staten Island, there has been little change.  44% of voters in these boroughs give Bloomberg a thumbs-up while 47% did the same in September.
• 51% of registered voters in Manhattan approve of Bloomberg’s job performance.  A similar proportion — 50% — had this impression last fall.

How do voters think Mayor Bloomberg is handling the city’s budget?  Half — 50% — approve of how he is dealing with the issue while 43% disapprove.  Eight percent are unsure.  In September’s survey, voters divided.  46% approved of how Bloomberg was managing the city’s budget while 46% disapproved, and 8% were unsure.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Table: Bloomberg on the City’s Budget

Table: Bloomberg on the City’s Budget Over Time

Quinn Leads Democratic Pack for 2013 Mayoralty by 20 Points

Looking at the potential Democratic candidates for mayor in 2013, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn outdistances her closest competitor by 20 percentage points among Democrats citywide.  32% support Quinn while former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson comes in a distant second with 12%.  Public Advocate Bill de Blasio receives 10% of the Democratic vote while current Comptroller John Liu has the support of 9%.  Seven percent of Democrats back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, has the backing of 1%.  29% are undecided.

In September’s survey, Quinn received 22% of the vote while Thompson had the backing of 18% of Democrats.  12% were for Liu, and 10%, at that time, were behind de Blasio.  Stringer received the support of 7%, and Allon garnered just 2%.  28% of Democrats were undecided.

What kind of an impact would an endorsement by Bloomberg have on the 2013 race?  It wouldn’t be a boon for the candidate especially among Democrats.  48% of registered Democrats are less likely to support a candidate backed by Mayor Bloomberg, and 26% are more likely to do so.  Among registered voters in New York City, 42% would be less likely to vote for a candidate supported by the mayor while 28% would be more likely to cast their ballot for that candidate.  18% say it would make no difference to their vote, and 11% are unsure.

In NY1-Marist’s previous survey, nearly half of registered voters — 48% — reported they would be less likely to vote for a candidate with Bloomberg’s backing while 30% thought a Bloomberg endorsement would make them more likely to do so.  15% said it would make no difference to their vote, and 8% were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

Bloomberg’s Legacy on Pace

39% of registered voters in New York City believe Mayor Bloomberg will be remembered positively after he leaves office.  This includes 10% who say he will be thought of as one of the city’s best mayors and 29% who believe he will be perceived as above average.  Nearly four in ten — 39% — think Bloomberg’s legacy will be average while 13% say he will be considered a below average mayor.  Nine percent go even farther and state he will be thought of as one of the city’s worst mayors.

There has been little change on this question since September when 41% said Bloomberg would be remembered positively.  41% replied Bloomberg’s legacy would be average while 12% thought it would be below average.  Six percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of the city’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

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