1/30: The Enduring Value of Public Polls

January 30, 2016 by  
Filed under Featured, Lee Miringoff

In this primary season the only conclusion that makes sense is that very little has made sense.  Rigorous, scientific public polls have provided a very useful road map.  As fellow pollster Gary Langer has commented: although public polls, the good and the bad, are often mixed together like champagne, cola, and turpentine, where would we be without good measurements of public opinion?  What started out as a Bush/Clinton inevitable matchup, has emerged as anything but.  Public polls have provided insights (and, there are many) about the staying power of Donald Trump and the emergence of Bernie Sanders.

caricature of Lee Miringoff

In Iowa, we are finally on the eve of when voters officially join the fray.  This time four years ago, the final NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll showed Mitt Romney (+2) and Ron Paul in a statistical dead heat with Santorum surging into third place with 15%.  The final Des Moines Register poll handicapped the contest the same with Romney (+2) to Ron Paul and Santorum surging into third place with 15%.   These polls were excellent explainers of where the contest stood at that time and provided many additional insights into what the numbers showed under the hood.

A couple of weeks ago, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll and the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll again mirrored each other.  Marist had Cruz (+4) over Trump, and the DMR had Cruz (+3) over Trump.  Rubio was in third place in both polls by the slimmest of margins over Carson.  On the Democratic side, Marist had Clinton (+3) over Sanders.  It was Clinton (+2) over Sanders in the DMR poll.

The final NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll has Trump (+7) over Cruz, but with Rubio in third and closing.  Clinton remains (+3) over Sanders.  The final DMR poll has Trump (+5) over Cruz with Rubio in third.

Both polls offer an inside-the-numbers look into what might tip the scales on Monday night.  But, the campaigns don’t stop once the polls do.  The GOP (Trump-less) debate, the latest flap over Clinton’s emails, the final ads, and the good ol’ ground game translate into, dare I say, these polls providing a narrative not a precise prediction.  They represent serious attempts to measure public opinion, inform poll-watchers, and serve as a resource for political journalists.  Now, let the voters decide.

This topsy-turvy election year, perhaps more than others, will ultimately require all of us to re-think polls, politics, and the press.  But, isn’t that what each election season demands?  The development of the new normal about candidates and campaigns is for another day.  In the meantime, safe travels to my friends in Iowa, happy caucus, and see you in New Hampshire (if you don’t get snowed in)!

 

11/3: Drop in de Blasio’s Approval Rating… Support among Base Erodes

November 3, 2015 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Two years until New York City’s next mayoralty election, Mayor Bill de Blasio’s job approval rating has declined.  To compound problems for de Blasio, support among his base has dropped, 9 points among African American voters and 12 points among Latino voters.  Of note, the racial divide which has underscored views about, both, Mayor de Blasio and the city still exists, but that gap is less pronounced than in the past.

Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating among registered voters citywide stands at 38%, down from 44% in May.  With the exception of Queens and Staten Island where de Blasio’s approval rating has inched up slightly, 33% to 37%, the mayor’s approval rating has fallen citywide.  The most dramatic decline has occurred in Manhattan where 32% now rate de Blasio highly compared with 53% in the spring.

While de Blasio still scores higher among African American, 50%, and Latino voters, 37%, than white voters, 32%, Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating has fallen among both groups.  Previously, the mayor received a 59% approval rating among African Americans and 49% among Latinos.

On the specifics of de Blasio’s job performance, the mayor has lost points on his handling of crime.  Fewer than four in ten adults in the city, 39%, say they approve of his approach, and a majority, 51%, disapproves.  In the previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, residents divided, 47% to 46%.  On the issue of police and community relations, the mayor also receives low marks with 37% saying they approve of how he is handling the issue and 53% reporting they do not.  Mayor de Blasio fares better on the issue of race relations where 48% of residents approve of the mayor’s approach.  On education, residents divide with 42% reporting they approve of his handling and 45% saying they disapprove.  New York City public school parents, 49%, are more likely to give Mayor de Blasio higher marks than residents, overall, on his handling of the schools.

Although his favorable score among registered voters has dipped from 59% to 52%, Mayor de Blasio remains well-liked.  Of note, de Blasio’s positive score has declined 13 points among Latinos and 16 points among voters in Manhattan.

On the bright side for de Blasio, voters citywide think he is working hard as mayor, 60%, and believe he understands the problems facing the city, 56%.  Despite a decline from 59% earlier this year, a majority of voters, 53%, still maintains the mayor cares about the average person, and a plurality, 47%, disagree that de Blasio cares more about keeping low-level offenders out of jail than protecting the public from crime.

However, the electorate divides, 46% agree to 48% who disagree, about whether or not de Blasio is a good leader for New York City.  Previously, a majority, 53%, thought de Blasio was a strong leader for the five boroughs.  Voters, 54%, also report de Blasio spends too much time debating his policies on the national stage and is not focusing enough attention on New York City.  In the last poll, voters divided.  44% agreed he spent too much time on the national stage, and 46% disagreed.  Overall, 37% of registered voters now think de Blasio is changing the city for the better, and 28%, up from 20%, believe he is changing it for the worse.

Fewer than four in ten voters, citywide, 38%, think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  This is down from 45% in the spring and matches the lowest proportion of voters since January of 2011 to say New York City is on track.  In addition, more residents, when compared with May, say the overall quality of life in New York City has gotten worse, 41%, since Mayor de Blasio became mayor, up from 33%.

What does this all mean for de Blasio?  Nearly half of voters, 49%, say de Blasio does not deserve to be re-elected, and 42% think he does.  This has flipped from the previous poll when a plurality of voters, 47%, reported the mayor deserved a second term, and 42% thought he did not.

Despite waning support for de Blasio, especially among his base, potential opponents are not well-known citywide and attract little support from Democrats.  When matched against possible challengers for the 2017 Democratic primary, at present, Mayor de Blasio is the odds-on favorite.  Even a slim majority of Latinos, among whom de Blasio has lost the most traction, supports him.  Mayor de Blasio’s strength in a potential primary contest is significant with one exception. Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz, Jr. edges de Blasio among Democratic voters in the Bronx.

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Looking ahead to a re-election campaign, there is no single potential opponent on the horizon poised to defeat the mayor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “However, there is growing discontent among voters who have previously supported the mayor about the job he is doing.” 

Click Here for Complete November 3, 2015 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

Poll points:

  • 38% of registered voters citywide think de Blasio is doing either an excellent, 6%, or good, 32%, job in office.  This is a 6 point drop in the mayor’s approval rating since May when he received 44%.
  • While the proportion of white voters who approve of de Blasio’s job performance, 32%, is unchanged from the spring, fewer Latino voters and African American voters now give the mayor high marks.  37% of Latinos, down from 49%, and 50% of African Americans, down from 59%, approve of de Blasio’s job performance.
  • By borough, the mayor has lost the most support in Manhattan.  His approval rating in the borough is at 32%, down from 53%.  In Brooklyn, 42% of voters, a drop from 49%, give the mayor good marks.  42% of those in the Bronx, a decline from 47%, approve of de Blasio’s job performance.  Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating in Queens and Staten Island has increased slightly from 33% to 37%.

Mayor de Blasio on the Issues

Nearly half of residents, 48%, approve of how Mayor de Blasio is handling race relations in New York City.  40% disapprove.  Half of the city’s white residents, 50%, are dissatisfied with the mayor’s job performance in this area in contrast to 60% of African Americans and 49% of Latinos who have a positive view.

Majorities of residents are unhappy with Mayor de Blasio’s handling of police and community relations, 53%, and crime, 51%.  There is little change in perceptions of the mayor’s role when it comes to the police and city residents.  However, earlier this year, residents divided about how the mayor approached the problem of crime in the city with 47% approving of his handling of the issue and 46% disapproving.

Mayor de Blasio has also lost support on how he is handling the city’s public schools.  42% currently approve, down from 47%.  Still, nearly half of parents with a child in public school, 49%, approve of how he is tackling the issue.

Majority with Favorable View of de Blasio, but…

52% of voters, down from 59%, have a favorable view of de Blasio.  38% have an unfavorable one.  Opinions of de Blasio among whites and African Americans are little changed.  However, while more than six in ten Latino voters, 61%, have a positive impression of de Blasio, the proportion has declined from 74% in May.

Mayor de Blasio’s favorable rating has gone down citywide, except in Brooklyn.  The most precipitous decline has occurred in Manhattan where 48% have a favorable opinion of the mayor, a 16 point change from 64% in the spring.

New York City voters attribute positive characteristics such as being a hard worker, understanding the problems facing the city, and caring about the average person to Mayor de Blasio.  Additionally, they disagree that de Blasio emphasizes keeping low-level offenders out of jail at the expense of protecting citizens from crime.

However, there has been a decline in those who view the mayor as caring, as a good leader for New York City, and as a mayor who deserves to be re-elected.  A majority now perceives de Blasio as spending too much time in the national spotlight.

When it comes to Mayor de Blasio’s overall impact on New York City, a plurality, 37%, says he is changing the Big Apple for the better, and 28% believe he is changing it for the worse.  The proportion of those who believed the mayor was having a positive effect on the city in May was 40%.  At that time only 20% thought he was making New York City worse.

Pessimism in New York City Grows

The proportion of New York City voters who think the city is moving in the right direction, 38%, is at its lowest since January 2011.  Additionally, more than four in ten residents believe the overall quality of life in the Big Apple has gotten worse in the past year up from 33% last spring.

Poll points:

  • 38% of voters, down from 45%, think the city is moving in the right direction, and a majority, 55%, says it is moving in the wrong one. 
  • Voters in Manhattan are the least optimistic.  31% of these voters report the city is moving in the right direction.  This is a 19 point drop from 50% who had this view earlier this year.
  • 41% of New York City residents think the overall quality of life in New York City has gotten worse in the last year, and 16% say it has gotten better.  19% believe it has stayed the same which is a bad thing, and 18% think it has remained the same which is a good thing.  Three percent report the quality of life is about the same which is neither good nor bad. 
  • Whites, 51%, are more likely than African Americans, 37%, and Latinos, 39%, to think the quality of life in New York City has gotten worse. 
  • The proportion of whites who say the city’s quality of life has deteriorated has increased from 35%.  And, there has been an 11 point increase in the proportion of African Americans and a 4% increase among Latinos who share this view. 
  • 42% of residents think the number of homeless, panhandlers, and mentally ill on the city’s streets have increased since de Blasio has become mayor.  The same proportion, 42%, says the number has remained the same, and only 8% believe it has declined.  Similar proportions of adults had these views in May.
  • 60% of adults think the cleanliness of the subways has not changed since de Blasio became mayor.  15% say they are cleaner, and 15% report they are dirtier.
  • Nearly six in ten residents, 59%, support the proposal to restrict costumed panhandlers in Times Square to designated areas.  32% oppose the plan.

Stop and Frisk Still Polarizing Issue

While 38% of residents want Mayor de Blasio to continue to reduce stop and frisk, 36% think the policy should revert to what it was during Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s administration.  16% think de Blasio should leave things the way they are now, and 10% are unsure.

About two-thirds of adults citywide have, at least, a fair amount of confidence in the New York City Police to keep them safe from violent crime.

Poll points:

  • Nearly half of white residents, 49%, think stop and frisk should return to what it was during the Bloomberg years while 50% of African Americans and 42% of Latinos believe de Blasio should continue to reduce the policy.  Still, 31% of Latinos and 24% of African Americans assert Bloomberg’s policy regarding stop and frisk should be reinstated.
  • 66% of residents have either a great deal of confidence, 27%, or a fair amount of confidence, 39%, in the police to protect them from violent crime.  This is up from 60% who had this view in the spring.  33% have either some confidence, 15%, or little confidence, 18%, in the NYPD to keep them safe.
  • Whites, 82%, are more likely than African Americans, 59%, and Latinos, 50%, to have faith in the police to protect them.  However, the proportion of African Americans with this view has increased from 49%.  Latinos are little changed on this question.
  • A majority of residents, 52%, supports drug treatment, not jail, for addicts who are repeat offenders and are convicted of a felony for drug dealing.  40% say these individuals should receive jail time.

De Blasio vs. Bloomberg

35% of city residents believe Mayor de Blasio is doing a worse job in office than former Mayor Bloomberg.  One in four, 25%, says de Blasio is a better mayor than Bloomberg, and 35% believe there is little difference between the job performances of both mayors.

Poll points:

  • A majority of whites, 56%, report de Blasio is a worse mayor than Bloomberg.
  • Pluralities of African Americans, 45%, and Latinos, 40%, say de Blasio is doing about the same job as the former mayor in city hall.

Mayor de Blasio Bests Competition for 2017 Democratic Nomination

Mayor de Blasio currently does not face a formidable threat if he is challenged for his party’s nomination in 2017.

Poll points:

  • If the 2017 Democratic primary for mayor were held today, de Blasio would receive 43% of the vote.  New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer and Public Advocate Letitia James each receive 10%.  Nine percent are for Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz, Jr., 5% support Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, and 4% are behind U.S. Representative Hakeem Jeffries.  20% of New York City Democrats are undecided.
  • Among Bronx Democrats, Diaz leads de Blasio, 34% to 29%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

3/7: New Mayor, but City Still Divides

March 7, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Two months after taking office, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is well-liked among registered voters.  Many think de Blasio cares about the average person, is fulfilling campaign promises, can unify the city, and is a good leader.  However, there is a significant racial divide, and fewer than four in ten registered voters in the city approve of de Blasio’s overall job performance as mayor.  Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job approval rating at this time in his first term was 50%.

Click Here for Complete March 7, 2014 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Many voters like the qualities that de Blasio has as mayor, and they are comfortable with him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, race matters, and he still has some convincing to do when it comes to carrying out his responsibilities at City Hall.”

39% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor de Blasio is doing in office.  This includes 10% who think he is doing an excellent job and 29% who say he is doing a good one.  37% rate de Blasio’s performance as fair while one in five voters — 20% — thinks he is performing poorly.  Five percent have either never heard of de Blasio or are unsure how to rate him.

By race:

  • Among African American voters, 50% approve of the job de Blasio is doing.  40% give him fair marks, and 7% rate his performance as poor.
  • 45% of Latino voters give de Blasio high marks.  This compares with 32% who think he is doing an average job, and 19% who call his job performance poor.
  • 30% of white voters think well of how Mayor de Blasio is doing his job.  34% rate his performance as fair, and 30% say he is doing poorly.

By borough:

  • 44% of Bronx voters approve of how de Blasio is doing in office.  About one-third — 33% — rate his performance as fair, and 19% say he is doing a poor job.
  • In Brooklyn, 43% give de Blasio a thumbs-up.  37% believe he is doing a fair job, and 14% think he is performing poorly.
  • 36% of voters in Queens and Staten Island think de Blasio is doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  40% describe his performance as fair, and 22% say it is poor.
  • Three in ten Manhattan voters — 30% — approve of how de Blasio is doing in office.  36% say he is doing a fair job, and 26% think his performance falls short.

Despite de Blasio’s approval rating, nearly six in ten voters — 59% — have a favorable opinion of him.  About one in three — 33% — has an unfavorable one, and 8% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll reported in December before de Blasio took office, 56% said they liked de Blasio, 20% had a lesser opinion of him, and 23% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.  Just before Election Day, 64% thought well of de Blasio.  26% had a negative impression of him, and 10% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

There is a racial divide.  While 78% of African American voters say they like de Blasio, 55% of Latino voters and 49% of white voters say the same.

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

The Nitty-Gritty of de Blasio’s Image

Close to two-thirds of voters think de Blasio cares about people like them, and more than six in ten say he is fulfilling his campaign promises.  Majorities of voters also say he can unify the city and is a good leader for the Big Apple.  When it comes to whether de Blasio is changing New York City for the better, a plurality of voters think he is, and nearly half think he is meeting their expectations.

  • 65% of voters citywide say de Blasio cares about people like them.  31% disagree, and 4% are unsure.  Race matters on this question.  While 86% of African American voters think de Blasio is concerned about them, 66% of Latinos and 51% of white voters say the same.
  • More than six in ten New York City voters — 63% — think de Blasio is fulfilling campaign promises.  One in four — 25% — does not think he is, and 11% are unsure.  By race, more than seven in ten African American voters — 72% — believe de Blasio is keeping his word.  This compares with 61% of Latino voters and 57% of whites.
  • 59% of registered voters think de Blasio can unify the city.  34% do not have confidence in him to do so, and 7% are unsure.  There are racial differences.  79% of African American voters and 64% of Latinos think de Blasio is a unifying force.  This compares with only 42% of white voters who share this opinion.
  • When it comes to de Blasio’s leadership, 58% believe he is a good leader for the city.  About one in three — 33% — says he is not, and 9% are unsure.  Again, race comes into play.  Nearly eight in ten African American voters — 79% — have confidence in de Blasio’s leadership ability while 57% of Latinos and 46% of whites agree.
  • Nearly half of registered voters — 48% — think de Blasio is meeting their expectations as New York City mayor.  Six percent say he is exceeding them while 35% believe he is falling below what they had anticipated.  11% are unsure.  By race, more than six in ten African American voters — 63% — say he is meeting their expectations.  This compares with 48% of Latino voters and 39% of white voters who have this opinion.
  • 43% of voters say de Blasio is changing New York City for the better.  20% think he is having a negative impact, and 25% believe he is having no effect at all.  12% are unsure.  While about two-thirds of African American voters — 66% — think de Blasio is having a positive impact on the city, 44% of Latino voters and 30% of white voters say the same.
  • 59% of voters say de Blasio’s political ideology is about right.  28% think he is too liberal, and 7% say he is too conservative.  Six percent are unsure.  In December’s survey, 61% said his ideology was about right, 21% reported he was too liberal, and 4% thought he was too conservative.  14%, then, were unsure.

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio Cares About Average Person (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio as Fulfilling Campaign Promises (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio as a Unifier (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio as Leader (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Meeting Expectations (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Impact on New York City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Majority of Adults Approves of de Blasio’s Handling of Winter Storms… Schools Tell a Different Tale

56% of New York City residents are satisfied with how de Blasio and his administration managed this winter’s snowstorms.  41% disapprove, and 3% are unsure.  Racial differences exist.  More than seven in ten African Americans — 72% — think well of how de Blasio handled the snowfalls.  This compares with 50% of Latinos and 49% of whites.

But, do adults citywide agree with how de Blasio handled school closings during those storms?  50% do not think he dealt with the situation correctly.  46% believe he did, and 4% are unsure.  While majorities of African Americans — 55% — and Latinos — 53% — say de Blasio’s assessment was spot on, just 40% of whites agree.  Parents of public school children divide.  50% think de Blasio correctly addressed the situation while 50% think he fumbled it.

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Handling of Winter Snowstorms (NYC Registered Adults)

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Handling of School Closings During Winter Snowstorms (NYC Registered Adults)

Six in Ten Agree with de Blasio’s Focus on Public Schools

In contrast with former Mayor Bloomberg’s strong support for charter schools, Mayor de Blasio wants a better balance with public schools.  And, six in ten residents in the city — 60% — approve of that emphasis.  34% disapprove, and 6% are unsure.

Among parents with school children in the city’s public school system, 65% think de Blasio has the correct stance on charter schools.  31% disagree, and 4% are unsure.

Race is a factor.  67% of Latinos and 64% of African Americans agree that de Blasio should emphasize public schools over charter schools.  This compares with 49% of whites in the city who say the same.  By borough, 64% in Queens and Staten Island, 61% of those in Brooklyn, and 60% of residents in the Bronx agree with de Blasio’s focus on public schools.  51% of Manhattan adults share this opinion.

Table: Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Emphasis on Public Schools (NYC Adults)

52% Have Positive View of Chirlane McCray

A majority of registered voters — 52% — like Mayor de Blasio’s wife, Chirlane McCray.  19% have an unfavorable impression of her, and 29% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist last reported this question in December, 46% thought well of McCray, 8% had a lesser view of her, and 45% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Chirlane McCray Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

City’s Compass Pointing in the Right Direction, Says Majority

53% of voters think New York City is moving in the right direction.  42% think it is moving in the wrong one, and 5% are unsure.  In December, 51% thought the city was on course.  36% believed it was off track, and 13% were unsure.

However, there has been a shift in the specific groups who think the city is on the right path.  There has been an increase in the proportion of African American voters who say the city is on course.  60% have this view now compared with 49% in December.  There has been a slight decline among white voters.  45% say the Big Apple is on track while a slim majority — 52% — did so in that previous survey.  Among Latinos, there is little change.  Half — 50% — currently say New York City is on track while 47% had this opinion three months ago.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

12/23: Out with the Old and In with the New… NYC Voters Hopeful about de Blasio Administration, Change for the Better on the Way

December 23, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

When New York City Mayor-elect Bill de Blasio is sworn into office on January 1st, he will be greeted with great expectations from voters.  About two-thirds of registered voters in the city — 66% — are hopeful about de Blasio becoming the next mayor of New York City.  14% are content while 11% are disappointed.  Two percent describe themselves as angry, and 7% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete December 23, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Coming off a huge election victory, expectations are sky high for what Bill de Blasio will do for the city as mayor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, not all New Yorkers think that accomplishing his goals will be a slam dunk.”

By party, 72% of Democrats are hopeful about the incoming de Blasio administration.  However, Republicans citywide divide.  43% are hopeful while 40% are disappointed.  Nearly two-thirds of non-enrolled voters — 64% — are optimistic about de Blasio becoming mayor.

Regardless of borough, at least six in ten voters have a positive feeling about de Blasio assuming the role of mayor.  Voters in Brooklyn — 71% — are the most hopeful.  67% of those in Manhattan, 64% of those in the Bronx, and 62% of voters in Queens and Staten Island share this emotion.

How will de Blasio impact New York City?  Nearly six in ten — 58% — think he will change the Big Apple for the better.  14% believe he will make the city worse while 13% report he will not change New York City at all.  15% are unsure.

There is a partisan divide.  While 65% of Democrats say de Blasio will improve New York City, 49% of Republicans think he will make it worse.  55% of non-enrolled voters say de Blasio will have a positive impact on New York City.

There are also differences by race and borough.  More than seven in ten African American voters — 72% — think de Blasio will change the city for the better.  65% of Latino voters citywide agree.  However, 49% of white voters in New York City believe he will improve the Big Apple.

Looking at borough, 65% of voters in Brooklyn believe de Blasio will change New York City for the better.  This compares with 63% in the Bronx and 56% in Manhattan who say the same.  In Queens and Staten Island, 51% think de Blasio will positively affect New York City.

Table: Emotion which Best Describes Feeling about Bill de Blasio becoming NYC Mayor (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: de Blasio’s Impact on NYC (NYC Registered Voters)

Majority with Positive Image of de Blasio

56% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable impression of Mayor-elect de Blasio.  20% have an unfavorable view of him, and 23% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Despite de Blasio’s strong favorable rating, it’s a long way from the campaign trail to City Hall.  There has been a decline in the proportion of voters who have a favorable opinion of de Blasio and an increase in the proportion of those who have yet to form an opinion of the soon-to-be-mayor.  When the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in November, just before Election Day, more than six in ten voters — 64% — thought favorably of de Blasio.  26% had a lesser impression of him, and only 10% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate de Blasio.

When it comes to de Blasio’s political ideology, 61% of voters believe it is about right.  21% think he is too liberal while only 4% say he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.  In November, 56% of voters described de Blasio’s ideology as about right.  29% thought he was too liberal, and 4% said he was too conservative.  11%, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Getting to Know You… Next First Lady of NYC Little-Known to Many Voters 

Bill de Blasio’s wife, Chirlane McCray, needs to introduce herself to the New York City electorate.  While 46% of voters have a favorable impression of McCray, 45% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Eight percent have a negative opinion of McCray.

Table: Chirlane McCray Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track, Says Majority

51% of New York City voters think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  36% believe it is traveling in the wrong one, and 13% are unsure.  When the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in November, 49% reported the city was on the right course while 42% said it was not.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Exit Center Stage… Bloomberg Leaves Office with 49% Approval Rating 

As Mayor Michael Bloomberg prepares to leave office after 12 years in City Hall, 49% approve of his job performance.  This includes 15% who say he is doing an excellent one, and 34% who report he is doing a good one.  30% rate Bloomberg’s performance as fair while 17% think he is performing poorly.  Four percent are unsure.

In the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s November survey, 47% approved of Bloomberg’s job performance.  29% believed his performance was average while 20% said he fell short.  Three percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg’s Lasting Legacy 

How will Mayor Michael Bloomberg be remembered?  50% will recall his time in office positively.  Included here are 15% who describe Bloomberg as one of the city’s best mayors and 35% who call him an above average mayor.  31% will remember him as an average mayor while 10% will recall him as a below average one.  Eight percent think Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

“Overall, after three terms, New Yorkers think Mayor Bloomberg has done a decent job,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For most New Yorkers, he has been a commendable mayor.”

When this question was last reported in February, 44% thought Bloomberg’s tenure would be remembered fondly.  37% said his legacy would be an average one while 12% believed Bloomberg would be considered a below average mayor.  Eight percent of voters, at that time, said Bloomberg would be recalled as one of the city’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Nature of the Sample

How the Survey was Conducted

11/4: De Blasio with BIG Lead over Lhota Going into Election Day

November 4, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

The clock is counting down to Election Day, and in this final NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Democrat Bill de Blasio has a very wide lead over Republican Joe Lhota among New York City likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  De Blasio has the support of 65% of likely voters while Lhota receives 24%.  Independence candidate Adolfo Carrion has 4% while 1% of likely voters citywide wants another candidate to be elected.  Six percent are undecided.

Click Here for Complete November 4, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“Bill de Blasio continues to be the overwhelming favorite with New York City voters while Joe Lhota can’t get any traction,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Even a Peyton Manning fourth quarter comeback wouldn’t be enough to close this large gap.”

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist reported this question last month, 67% of likely voters citywide supported de Blasio.  23% backed Lhota while Carrion had the support of 2%.  One percent was for another candidate, and 7% were undecided.

By party:

  • Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 79% are for de Blasio compared with 14% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  In October, 82% backed de Blasio while 13% were for Lhota.  One percent was behind Carrion.
  • When it comes to likely Republican voters, 71% are for Lhota while 21% are for de Blasio.  Three percent support Carrion.  In that previous survey, 69% of likely Republican voters backed Lhota while 16% were for de Blasio, and 1% supported Carrion.
  • Among non-enrolled voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 50% support de Blasio.  29% are for Lhota while 11% back Carrion.  Last month, 58% of likely non-enrolled voters were for de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota.  Seven percent, at that time, backed Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio receives, at least, majority support.   Among African American voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 90% support de Blasio.  Lhota and Carrion each receives 2%.  72% of Latino voters are for de Blasio while 10% are for Lhota, and 9% back Carrion.  Among likely voters who are white, 53% support de Blasio, 39% back Lhota, and 2% are for Carrion.

Before last Wednesday’s debate, 65% of likely voters supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Carrion received the support of 4% while 1% wanted another candidate to be mayor.  Six percent were undecided.  After the debate, 65% supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Three percent backed Carrion while 1% were for another candidate.  Seven percent were undecided.

“The debate season has come and gone,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, the debates this fall have done more to reinforce voters’ impressions of the candidates than to change the character of the race.”

How strongly do likely voters citywide support their choice of candidate?  61% say they strongly support their selection for mayor while 30% are somewhat committed to their choice.  Eight percent might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick, and 9% said they might vote differently.  Two percent were unsure.

65% of likely voters who support de Blasio say they will not waver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 54% of likely voters who back Lhota and say they are strongly committed to him.  Last month, 56% of de Blasio’s backers reported they strongly supported him while 49% of Lhota’s backers had a similar level of intensity.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, de Blasio — 63% — is ahead of Lhota — 21% — by 42 percentage points.  Carrion receives the support of 5% while 1% wants someone else to be elected.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Done Deal for de Blasio?

Most registered voters in New York City think, regardless of who they plan to support, de Blasio will defeat Lhota tomorrow.  83% of voters believe de Blasio will win while only 8% think Lhota will be victorious.  Nine percent are undecided.  Even an overwhelming proportion of Lhota’s backers — 81% — think de Blasio will be the city’s next mayor.

Table: Who Do You Think Will Win the Election for New York City Mayor? (NYC Registered Voters)

About Two-Thirds Perceive de Blasio Favorably… Upside Down Rating for Lhota 

64% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable opinion of de Blasio.  26% have an unfavorable one, and 10% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In October, similar proportions shared these views.  65% of registered voters thought well of de Blasio.  23% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 12%, at that time, had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Lhota, 47% have an unfavorable view of him.  32% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 43% of registered voters had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota while 32% had a favorable one.  25% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Trumps Lhota on the Issues 

About two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — think de Blasio is the candidate who is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  18%, however, say Lhota is the candidate who will improve affordability in the city.  15% are unsure.  Last month, 67% of registered voters thought de Blasio was more capable to make the city affordable.  19% had this impression of Lhota, and 14%, at that time, were unsure.

Looking at crime in the city, 48% of registered voters believe de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 32% think Lhota is better able to keep the city safe.  About one in five — 19% — is unsure.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 52% said de Blasio would make the city safer.  31% believed Lhota was better able to keep crime down, and 17% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Ideologically Speaking 

What are voters’ impressions of de Blasio’s political ideology?  A majority of registered voters — 56% — thinks his ideology is about right.  29% say he is too liberal while 4% say he is too conservative.  11% are unsure.  In October, 59% thought de Blasio’s ideology was in line.  24% reported he was too liberal while 3% said he was too conservative.  14% were unsure.

When it comes to Lhota’s political ideology, 34% say his ideology is about right.  35% believe Lhota is too conservative while 8% say Lhota is too liberal.  23% are unsure.  Last month, 35% of registered voters reported Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while only 8% believed he was too liberal.  26%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Time for Change, Say More than Six in Ten 

64% of registered voters want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 31% want him to continue Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s policies.  Six percent are unsure.  There has been little change since NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s October survey.  At that time, 66% wanted a departure from Bloomberg’s policies.  29% reported they thought the city’s current policies should be continued, and 6% were unsure.

So, how do voters think Bloomberg is doing in office?  47% say he is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 13% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one.  29% rate Bloomberg’s approval rating as fair while 20% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 45% gave Bloomberg high marks.  34% said he was doing a fair job while 18% thought Bloomberg’s job performance was subpar.  Two percent were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

The City’s Course

49% of registered voters think New York City is moving in the right direction while 42% believe it is moving in the wrong one.  Nine percent are unsure.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 46% of voters thought the city was traveling on the right road while 46% said it needed a new path.  Eight percent were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/11: De Blasio Leads Lhota by 44 Percentage Points in NYC Mayor’s Race

October 11, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With just a little more than three weeks until Election Day, Democrat Bill de Blasio outpaces his Republican opponent, Joe Lhota, 67% to 23%, among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has the support of 2%.  One percent supports another candidate while 7% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“This is a very lopsided contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Joe Lhota hasn’t gotten any traction to offset the Democratic registration advantage in the city.”

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, de Blasio — 65% — was ahead of Lhota — 22% — by 43 percentage points among likely voters.  Carrion received the support of 3%.  One percent backed another candidate, and 9%, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

  • Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 82% support de Blasio while 13% are for Lhota.  One percent supports Carrion.  Last month, 77% of Democrats backed de Blasio.  13% were behind Lhota, and 1% supported Carrion.
  • Looking at likely Republican voters, 69% back Lhota.  16% are for de Blasio, and 1% supports Carrion.  In September’s survey, 63% of Republicans were for Lhota compared with 25% for de Blasio.  Five percent were behind Carrion.
  • Among non-enrolled voters, de Blasio has the backing of 58%.  Lhota garners 21%, and Carrion has 7%.  In that previous survey, half of non-enrolled voters likely to cast a ballot — 50% — supported de Blasio compared with 24% for Lhota and 9% for Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio has a wide lead over Lhota.  Among white voters who are likely to participate on Election Day, 57% support de Blasio while 33% are for Lhota.  In September, 50% of whites backed de Blasio while Lhota had the support of 37%.  Among African American voters, de Blasio has 89% to 4% for Lhota.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 86% of African American voters likely to cast a ballot supported de Blasio compared with 3% for Lhota.  De Blasio has a 62 percentage point advantage over Lhota among Latinos who are likely to vote.  Here, de Blasio receives 76% compared with 14% for Lhota.  Last month, 74% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day were for de Blasio while 11% backed Lhota.

How strongly do likely voters with a candidate preference support their choice for mayor?  54% strongly support their pick while 36% are somewhat behind their candidate.  Nine percent might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  33% were somewhat behind their pick while 13% said they might change their minds before Election Day.  One percent, at that time, was unsure.

Among likely voters who are for de Blasio, 56% strongly support him.  This compares with 49% of Lhota’s backers who are firmly committed to him.  This is little changed from September when 58% of de Blasio’s backers said they strongly supported him while 47% of Lhota’s supporters expressed the same level of support for him.

Looking at registered voters, de Blasio — 66% — outdistances Lhota — 20% — by 46 percentage points.  Carrion has the support of 3% while 2% back another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.  Last month, 63% of registered voters backed de Blasio while 20% supported Lhota.  Four percent were for Carrion, and 2% backed another candidate.  12% were undecided.

What does the contest for mayor look like when all fifteen candidates on the ballot are taken into account?  Little changes.  Among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 64% support de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  Jack Hidary and Michael Greys each receives 1%.  Erick Salgado, Anthony Gronowicz, James McMillian, Michael Sanchez, Randy Credico, Dan Fein, Joseph Melaragno, Sam Sloan, Michael Dilger, and Carl Person each garners less than one percent of the vote.  One percent mentions another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor Including All Fifteen Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

65% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio while 23% have an unfavorable one.  12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In September, 65% thought highly of de Blasio while 19% had an unfavorable view of him.  16%, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

It’s a different story when it comes to Lhota.  43% have an unfavorable impression of the candidate.  32% have a positive view of him, and a notable 25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  There has been little change on this question since September when 41% had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota, and 29% said they had a favorable one.  Three in ten — 30% — had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Tops Lhota on Issues and Qualities

How do de Blasio and Lhota stack up when it comes to campaign issues and candidate qualities?  Among registered voters in New York City:

  • Two out of three — 67% — think de Blasio is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure.  In September, 63% had this impression of de Blasio while 20% said Lhota could make New York City more affordable.  17% were unsure.
  • When it comes to improving the city’s public schools, about two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — say de Blasio is the better candidate for the job.  This compares with 19% who think Lhota is better able to improve education in the city.  16% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question.  Last month, 65% reported de Blasio was the candidate with the skills to improve education while 18% had this view of Lhota.  18%, at that time, were unsure.
  • 63% of registered voters think de Blasio can better unite the city.  This compares with 21% who think Lhota can bring New Yorkers together.  16% are unsure.  In that previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 67% of voters considered de Blasio to be the candidate who could better unite the city.  19% thought Lhota was the candidate to do so, and 14% were unsure.
  • There has also been little change on whether de Blasio or Lhota has the experience to manage the city.  53% believe de Blasio is the more seasoned candidate while 29% think Lhota has the experience to take the city’s helm.  18% are unsure.  Last month, a majority — 54% — reported de Blasio had the experience to be mayor compared with 31% who had this impression of Lhota.  15%, then, were unsure.
  • A majority of voters — 52% — say de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 31% say Lhota is more likely to do so.  17% are unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who say de Blasio will improve safety in the city.  Last month, 44% said de Blasio was more likely to reduce crime.  This compares with 35% who had this opinion of Lhota.  21%, at the time, were unsure.
  • When it comes to the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances, 49% think de Blasio is more capable.  This compares with 33% who say Lhota has the advantage on this issue.  19% are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 45% thought de Blasio was the better candidate to deal with the city’s finances while 35% had this opinion of Lhota.  20% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

The Ideologies of the Candidates 

Among registered voters in New York City, 59% report de Blasio’s political ideology is in step.  This compares with 24% who think he is too liberal and 3% who believe he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.

In September, 59% of registered voters said de Blasio’s ideology was about right.  22% reported he was too liberal while 5% thought he was too conservative.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Among registered voters, 35% say Lhota’s political ideology is in line.  31% report he is too conservative, and 8% believe he is too liberal.  26% are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 32% of voters thought Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while 7% reported he was too liberal.  29%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio’s Past Experiences in Cuba and Nicaragua Matter Little

Information surfaced that de Blasio went to Cuba on his honeymoon and supported the Sandinistas in Nicaragua.  Has this knowledge impacted voters’ impressions of de Blasio?  More than seven in ten registered voters — 72% — say it makes no difference to them.  16% report it makes them less likely to vote for de Blasio while 8% think it makes them more likely to vote for him.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of de Blasio’s Time in Cuba and Nicaragua on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Divide about Lhota and National GOP

On most issues, 40% of registered voters think Lhota is not independent from the national Republican Party.  36% believe he is independent from the GOP, and 24% are unsure where he stands on most issues.

Among those who believe Lhota’s stance on the issues is tied to the national Republican Party, 39% are less likely to support him, and 54% say it doesn’t matter.  Looking at those who say Lhota is independent from the national GOP platform, 42% would be more likely to vote for him, and 51% say it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Impact of Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing Does Little to Help Lhota’s Chances

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani stumped for Lhota during the primary, but his nod does not bolster Lhota’s chances in the general election.  While 31% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to support Lhota, 47% report it makes them less likely to do so.  18% think it makes no difference to their vote, and 3% are unsure.

Last month, 29% reported Giuliani’s support made them more likely to vote for Lhota.  A majority — 51% — said it made them less likely to vote for him, and 15% thought Giuliani’s endorsement made no difference to their vote.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

A partisan divide exists.  Most Republicans — 72% — say a Giuliani endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota while 8% report it makes them less inclined to support him.  Among Democrats, 57% think Giuliani’s backing makes them less likely to cast their ballot for Lhota.  22% disagree and believe it will make them more likely to do so.  There is little consensus among non-enrolled voters citywide.  35% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota, and 42% report it makes them less likely to vote for him.  20% believe it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Departure from Bloomberg Era Policies Desired… Bloomberg Rating Steady 

About two-thirds of registered voters in New York City — 66% — want to move the city in a different direction from the Bloomberg years.  29%, however, want the next mayor to continue the policies of Mayor Bloomberg.  Six percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 68% wanted the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 25% wanted him to stay the course.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

When it comes to the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office, 45% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who say the mayor is doing an excellent job and 33% who report he is doing a good one.  34% rate his performance as fair while 18% think he is performing poorly.  Two percent are unsure.

Last month, a similar 42% gave Bloomberg kudos.  33% gave him average grades while 22% thought he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)  

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track?

When it comes to the direction of New York City, 46% of registered voters believe it is moving in the right direction, and 46% think it is traveling in the wrong one.  Eight percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, voters also divided.  46% reported the city was on the right road, and 43% said it was on the wrong track.  11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

9/18: Early Line: de Blasio Outpaces Lhota in NYC Mayor’s Race

September 18, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

The race for New York City mayor now turns toward the general election.  Among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Democrat Bill de Blasio leads Republican Joe Lhota, 65% to 22%.  Independence candidate Adolfo Carrion — 3% — trails in third place.  One percent supports another candidate, and 9% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete September 18, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Joe Lhota must attract many Democrats to be competitive against the heavily favored Bill de Blasio, and right now, that’s not happening,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “De Blasio is very well-liked and is cornering the market on most of the issues and qualities that matter to voters.”

Candidate support divides along party lines.  However, de Blasio receives the backing of one in four likely Republican voters — 25% — while Lhota attracts merely 13% of Democrats.

By party:

  • 77% of likely Democratic voters citywide are for de Blasio.  This compares with 13% for Lhota, and 1% for Carrion.
  • Among Republicans who are likely to vote, more than six in ten — 63% — are behind Lhota.  A notable 25% support de Blasio, and 5% are for Carrion.
  • Half of non-enrolled voters who are likely to vote — 50% — support de Blasio.  24% back Lhota, and 9% are for Carrion.

There are also racial differences.  86% of African American voters who are likely to vote and 74% of likely Latino voters support de Blasio.  Lhota receives the support of 3% of African American voters and 11% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day.  The contest is closer among white voters who are likely to cast a ballot.  Here, de Blasio has the support of 50% to 37% for Lhota.

54% of likely New York City voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  33% are somewhat committed to their pick, and only 13% might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.

Looking at the candidates’ support, 58% of likely voters who are behind de Blasio strongly support him.  This compares with 47% of Lhota’s backers who express the same level of support.

Among registered voters in New York City, de Blasio — 63% — leads Lhota — 20%.  Four percent of registered voters citywide are for Carrion while 2% want to elect another candidate.  12% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners)

Many Voters View de Blasio Favorably… Lhota’s Rating Upside Down 

Nearly two in three registered voters citywide — 65% — have a positive impression of de Blasio.  19% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 16% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  It’s a different story for candidate Lhota.  41% have an unfavorable view of Lhota while 29% have a favorable impression of him.  A notable 30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Carrion, he is not well known to voters.  While 23% have an unfavorable opinion of him and 19% have a favorable view of Carrion, almost six in ten New York City registered voters — 58% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Adolfo Carrion Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

The Nitty-Gritty of Campaign Issues and Candidate Qualities 

How do voters compare de Blasio and Lhota on the issues?  In most areas, de Blasio outdistances Lhota by wide margins.  However, there are two notable exceptions.  De Blasio and Lhota are more competitive when it comes to who is better able to handle the city’s finances or who is more likely to keep crime down.

Among New York City registered voters:

  • 67% of registered voters think de Blasio is the candidate who will better unify the city.  19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure.
  • De Blasio — 65% — is also viewed as the candidate who is more likely to improve the city’s public schools.  18%, however, think Lhota is the candidate who has the tools to enhance the city’s schools, and 18% are unsure.
  • When it comes to making the city more affordable, more than six in ten — 63% — believe de Blasio is more capable of doing so.  This compares with 20% who have this opinion of Lhota.  17% are unsure.
  • 62% of voters say de Blasio better understands their problems.  22% report Lhota is the candidate who is more likely to identify with their concerns, and 16% are unsure.
  • Which candidate will better lead the city during a crisis?  A majority — 56% — thinks de Blasio will better lead during such a time.  30% believe Lhota is the man to turn to during a crisis, and 14% are unsure.
  • When it comes to keeping businesses in the Big Apple, 55% say de Blasio will do more to keep them in New York City.  More than three in ten — 31% — report Lhota is the candidate who will make the greater effort to ensure businesses remain in the city.  14% are unsure.
  • A majority of registered voters in New York City — 54% — view de Blasio as the mayoral candidate who has the experience to manage the city.  31% have this impression of Lhota, and 15% are unsure.
  • However, de Blasio — 45% — and Lhota — 35% — are more closely matched when voters choose the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances.  20% are unsure.
  • Similarly, when it comes to keeping crime down, 44% of voters think de Blasio will do a better job while 35% have this impression of Lhota.  About one in five voters — 21% — is unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who Better Understands the Problems of People Like Themselves (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Lead the City in a Crisis (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will do More to Keep Businesses in the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Many Voters View de Blasio’s Ideology as In Step… Little Consensus about Lhota 

59% of registered voters in New York City think de Blasio’s ideology is about right.  22% believe he is too liberal, and only 5% say he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.  When it comes to voters’ perceptions of Lhota, 32% report his ideology is about right.  31% think he is too conservative while 7% believe he is too liberal.  Nearly three in ten — 29% — are unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani Endorsement Not the Answer to Lhota’s Electoral Success

The endorsement of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani could do more harm than good for Lhota.  While 29% of registered voters citywide say Giuliani’s backing makes them more likely to support Lhota, a majority — 51% — says it makes them less likely to vote for him.  15% of voters report Giuliani’s endorsement makes no difference to their vote, and 5% are unsure.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide.  Nearly six in ten New York City Democrats — 59% — think Giuliani’s endorsement of Lhota makes them less likely to support him, and only 22% say it makes them more likely to back him.  Many Republican voters — 61% — view the Giuliani endorsement as a plus while 19% disagree.  46% of non-enrolled voters report Giuliani’s endorsement of Lhota makes them less likely to cast their ballot for him compared with 32% of these voters who see it as a positive.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Change is in the Air

68% of registered voters want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while just 25% want him to continue Mayor Bloomberg’s policies.  Seven percent are unsure.  Among registered voters who want to see the city move in another direction, 70% support de Blasio, and 14% back Lhota.  Among registered voters who want to continue the Bloomberg policies, 45% support de Blasio, and 34% back Lhota.

Stop and frisk is a Bloomberg-era policy many voters want to amend.  58% of registered voters citywide want the next mayor to significantly change the Bloomberg policy of stop and frisk.  36%, however, want the controversial policy to continue.  Seven percent are unsure.

Racial differences exist.  75% of African American voters and 63% of Latino voters want the policy of stop and frisk to be overhauled.  This compares with just 44% of white voters who share this view.

More than two-thirds of registered voters — 68% — agree with the centerpiece of the de Blasio campaign that the Big Apple is comprised of two cities.  One is made up of people who are struggling, and the other is comprised of those who are doing well.  However, 29% of registered voters disagree with this view and believe the city is one where people come together to solve their common problems.  Three percent are unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Should Significant Changes be Made to Stop and Frisk? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Does a Division Exist in New York City between Those Who are Struggling and Those Who are Doing Well? (NYC Registered Voters) 

Education and Economic Issues Viewed as Top Priorities for Next Mayor

Education and the economy are top of mind for New York City voters.  While 27% of voters in New York want the next mayor’s priority to be education, a plurality of voters — 39% — want the economy to be the new mayor’s focus.  This includes 22% who want jobs to be the number one issue and 17% who would like economic development to be the priority.  Rounding out the top five issues are housing with 8% and crime with 7%.  Other concerns include poverty — 6%, taxes — 5%, security from terrorism — 5%, race relations — 2%, and transportation — 1%.  One percent mentions something else as the next mayor’s top priority.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in June, 23% wanted the next mayor to focus on jobs.  20% thought education should be at the fore of the new mayor’s mind.  12% reported economic development should be the key while housing — 8% — and security from terrorism — 7% — also ranked high on the list of priorities.  Voters, at that time, were also concerned about taxes — 6%, crime — 6%, poverty — 5%, transportation — 2%, and race relations — 2%.  Eight percent wanted another issue to be the next mayor’s priority.

Table: Priority for the Next Mayor (NYC Registered Voters)

The Pre-K Conundrum… Voters Divide along Party Lines

With education at the top of the list of priorities for the next mayor, a majority of voters — 53% — wants to see taxes raised on higher income households to fund greater access to pre-kindergarten in the city.  40% believe the city should find the money within its budget to pay for it.  Two percent do not think pre-kindergarten is a priority, and 5% are unsure.  Opinions fall along party lines.  While 58% of Democrats and 51% of non-enrolled voters support increasing taxes to pay for more children to attend pre-kindergarten, 58% of Republicans believe the money should come from the city’s budget.

Table: Funding Pre-Kindergarten in New York City (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg Approval Rating at Lowest Point in Two Years

When it comes to Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job performance, 42% approve of the job he is doing in office.  This includes 9% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 33% who say he is doing a good one.  33% rate his performance as fair while 22% call it poor.  Two percent are unsure.  Bloomberg’s job approval rating is his lowest since August 2011.  At that time, 39% approved of how Mayor Bloomberg was doing in office.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll reported this question earlier this month, 46% approved of how Bloomberg was doing as mayor.  About one-third — 33% — gave him fair grades, and 19% believed he fell short.  Three percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg Defeated in Hypothetical Fourth Term Matchup

Given Mayor Bloomberg’s lackluster approval rating and the desire by many voters to move away from his administration’s policies, it’s not surprising that voters are ready for a new mayor.  If Mayor Bloomberg were allowed and chose to run for a fourth term as an independent, Bloomberg would finish a distant second behind de Blasio.  56% would support de Blasio.  20% would back Bloomberg while 17% would support Lhota.  Less than one percent would vote for someone else, and 7% are undecided.

Table: Hypothetical 2013 Race for New York City Mayor with Bloomberg (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Unsure about City’s Future but See Better Big Apple than in the Past 

Do voters think the city is moving in the right direction?  They divide.  46% believe the city is on the right track while 43% think it is moving in the wrong direction.  11% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll reported this question in the previous poll, similar proportions held these views.  47% said the city was on track while 43% reported it had lost its way.  10% were unsure.

But, overall, 61% of voters believe the city is better than it was 20 years ago.  23% say it is worse while 13% think it has stayed the same.  Three percent are unsure.

There are racial differences.  71% of white voters report the city has improved over the last two decades.  This compares with 54% of Latino voters and only 46% of African American voters who say the same.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Has New York City Gotten Better, Worse, or Has it Stayed the Same in the Past 20 Years? (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

9/12: The Role of Public Polls

September 12, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, Lee Miringoff

This NYC primary season brought both an anticipated “poll-iferation” and an equally expected questioning of the reliability of public polls.  With the first round of 2013 citywide voting now over and primary day in our rear view mirror, let’s assess how the public polls fared.  (Helpful hint: we adhere to principles of transparency.  If you want to number crunch, check out the rest of the site.)

caricature of Lee MiringoffA clarification on the role of public polls is the first order of business.  The case is often made that public polls move voters and unduly influence the outcome of an election.  The argument typically takes the following form: everybody likes a winner and public polls become self-fulfilling.  If this view was correct, it would be understandable for candidates who trail in public polls to shoot the messenger for allegedly overstating a front-runner’s support.

But, this is not a position I subscribe to.  Christine Quinn, the early favorite, did not widen her lead.   No bandwagon effect here.  Eliot Spitzer would have taken his early measure of Stringer and won by a landslide.  In fact, front-runners would always be expected to run up the score as Election Day neared.  Au contraire.  The political graveyards are full of fallen front-runners.  There must be something more to the role of polls then the self-fulfilling prophecy.

The truth is, it’s the candidates and their campaigns that win or lose elections.  This doesn’t come as a revelation to anyone involved in the world of political consulting or political reporters well versed in survey methods.  Public polls, if done scientifically, monitor campaign developments and changes in candidate support.

Second, even if the above assertion were true, in this era of “poll-iferation,” voters would be able to find poll numbers for many different potential scenarios.  Think back to Obama-Romney last fall.  Public polls were often at odds over where the electorate stood. If you liked Romney, you could find evidence for his lead.  And, you didn’t have to search too far to find numbers to your liking if you were an Obama supporter.  No need to switch your allegiance because of poll findings.

Rather than being targeted erroneously, public polls serve a useful, and yes, even a vital function in today’s high tech politics.  They offer, if conducted well, an insightful narrative of a campaign.  They guide journalists and poll-watchers about the dynamics shaping the electorate.  What are the issues driving voters? How are they reacting to campaign developments? What is the composition of the electorate and the appeal of the candidates?  This primary, it was extremely interesting to see how Democratic voters were assessing term limits, stop and frisk, affordability,  the 12-year incumbency of Michael Bloomberg, and the television campaign ads… the so-called “Dante effect.”

Debate watchers, for example, may think candidate Anthony Weiner won a debate, but the poll can tell us if the voters were moved.  (They weren’t).  In fact, public polls informed the public and the media about the willingness of voters to give Anthony Weiner a second chance, but not a third. Yet, his initial rise in the polls, provided some insight into Quinn’s weakness as the early front-runner.  The public polls documented the rise in her negatives and, most recently, the de Blasio surge.

Public polls also let the public in on the secret of what the private campaign polls are showing and provide insight about how candidates shape their strategies to survive the rough and tumble world of Big Apple electoral politics.  Does an opponent step up the attacks on a frontrunner?  First, Quinn took the incoming from her rivals.  Then, de Blasio was the target.  Check out Thompson’s ads about de Blasio and stop and frisk.  Don’t you think their campaign polls were telling them something?  You betcha!

How did the public polls perform tracking the Democratic primary in NYC ’13? Phase one: Speaker Christine Quinn was the early front-runner, but never had a lock on the primary.  She was the target of attacks as she tried to delicately balance her legislative work with Mayor Bloomberg with her desire to provide some distance.  No fourth term was she.  But, Quinn was unable to navigate this tightrope successfully.

Phase two: Anthony Weiner entered the fray and emerged as a serious contender.  This suggested both weakness in Quinn as the early front-runner, and that New Yorkers were willing to give Weiner a second chance.  He, and later Spitzer, took all the oxygen out of the electoral room during the summer and stymied the rest of the Democratic field from making serious inroads.

But, voters experienced redemption overload when a second round of Weiner’s sexting scandal emerged.  As the public polls documented, his negatives soared.  He continued to make good copy for the media, and remained very visible in terms of his ads and debates.  But, end of story for Anthony Weiner.

Summer turned to fall and the TV air wars intensified.  Finally, the Democratic field had a chance to breathe.  The de Blasio campaign captured the attention of Democratic voters with a well-constructed ad featuring his son Dante, and cornering the issues of stop and frisk, term limit extension, and city affordability.  This carried him through the primary.  No band wagon effect.  It was a well-constructed campaign.

Primary polling is no picnic.  But, I’ll leave that for another time.  For the present, the public polls provided a useful narrative on this mayoralty contest.  Today starts a new day!

 

 

9/9: Final Countdown… de Blasio Leads Closest Competitors for New York City Mayor by Wide Margin

September 9, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Going into tomorrow’s primary for New York City mayor, Bill de Blasio has the support of 36% of Democrats who are likely to vote, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  Bill Thompson battles the onetime frontrunner, Christine Quinn, for second place.  Both candidates trail de Blasio by double digits.

Among likely Democratic voters in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 36% Bill de Blasio
  • 20% Bill Thompson
  • 20% Christine Quinn
  •   7% Anthony Weiner
  •   5% John Liu
  •   1% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  • <1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   1% Other
  •   8% Undecided

Click Here for Complete September 9, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“Bill de Blasio leads Quinn among women and Thompson among African Americans,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “His campaign is being fueled by Democratic voters’ dislike of extending term limits, the policy of stop and frisk, and of course, the Dante effect.”

Just three weeks ago, Quinn — 24%, de Blasio — 24%, and Thompson — 18% vied for the lead among likely Democratic voters.  In that previous NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Anthony Weiner received the support of 11% while 5% backed John Liu.  Two percent were behind Erick Salgado while Sal Albanese and Randy Credico each received 1%.  Less than one percent supported Neil Grimaldi, and 2% were for another candidate.  12%, at that time, were undecided.

From where do the candidates receive their support?

  • De Blasio does better among likely Democratic voters who are both white and liberal — 43%.  He does well among likely Democratic voters in Brooklyn — 40% — and Manhattan — 40%.  De Blasio also does well among likely Democratic voters who are African American — 39%, men — 38%, voters 45 or older — 38%, or those who consider themselves to be strong Democrats — 38%.
  • Although Quinn does not lead among any group of likely Democratic voters, she does well among those who live in Manhattan — 30%, those who are Jewish — 29%, or those who are white Catholics — 26%.
  • Thompson also does not lead among any group of likely Democratic voters.  However, he does well among those who live in the Bronx — 26%, those who live in union households — 26%, and those who are African American — 25%.

How strongly do likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference for mayor support their choice of candidate?  53% strongly support their choice of candidate while 33% are somewhat committed to their pick.  13% report they might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.  55% of de Blasio supporters say they strongly back their candidate while 53% of likely Democratic voters who prefer Thompson and 51% who pick Quinn express a similar intensity of support for their choice.

At a lower turnout, among very likely Democratic primary voters in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 37% Bill de Blasio
  • 21% Bill Thompson
  • 19% Christine Quinn
  •   7% Anthony Weiner
  •   5% John Liu
  •   1% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  • <1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   1% Other
  •   8% Undecided

Looking at registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, 33% back de Blasio.  Quinn receives the support of 21% while 20% are behind Thompson.  Weiner garners 9% of the vote while Liu has 6%.  Salgado and Albanese each has the backing of 1%.  Credico and Grimaldi each receive less than 1%.  One percent of New York City registered Democrats back another candidate, and 9% are undecided.

Last month, 24% of registered Democrats citywide supported Quinn.  De Blasio received the support of 21%.  16% were for Thompson, and 12%, at the time, were behind Weiner.  Liu had the support of 6% of New York City Democrats.  Two percent were for Salgado while Albanese garnered 1%.  One percent backed Credico while less than 1% was for Grimaldi.  Three percent wanted someone else, and 15% were undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Likely Democratic Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Democratic Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

De Blasio Leads Quinn and Thompson in Possible Runoff Races

If none of the candidates receives 40% of the vote in the primary, a runoff will be held.  How do the candidates fare in such a situation?

Among New York City Registered Democrats:

  • De Blasio — 56% — leads Quinn — 34%.  10% are undecided.  De Blasio has opened up a lead over Quinn.  In August’s survey, 44% of registered Democrats backed de Blasio compared with 42% for Quinn.  14%, at that time, were undecided.
  • Against Thompson, de Blasio also has the advantage.  Here, 50% of registered Democrats are for de Blasio compared with 38% for Thompson.  12% are undecided.  Last month, 44% backed de Blasio while 36% were for Thompson.  At that time, one in five — 20% — was undecided.

“Bill de Blasio is within striking distance of avoiding a runoff, but he still has some ground to cover to pull this off,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If there is a runoff, de Blasio starts as the early favorite.”

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Thompson vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Quinn’s Negative Rating Continues to Rise 

Quinn’s image has been tarnished in the eyes of many New York City Democrats.  Less than one month ago, a majority of registered Democrats had a positive view of Quinn, but  her favorable rating has continued to erode.  In contrast, de Blasio is the candidate most positively viewed.  Thompson also has a positive rating from a majority of registered Democrats citywide while Anthony Weiner’s favorability continues to scrape bottom.

  • About two-thirds of registered Democrats — 66% — have a favorable impression of de Blasio while 21% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  13% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 59% of Democrats thought well of de Blasio, 14% had a negative view of the candidate, and 26% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Thompson’s favorable rating, 59% have a positive opinion of him.  21% have an unfavorable view of him, and 20% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In August, 56% had a favorable view of Thompson.  18% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 26% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • Just 46% of registered Democrats now have a favorable view of Quinn while 42% have an unfavorable opinion of her.  12% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In August, 54% of registered Democrats thought highly of Quinn.  32%, at that time, had an unfavorable impression of her, and 13% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • Only 28% of registered Democrats have a favorable opinion of Weiner.  64% have an unfavorable view of him while 7% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  There has been little change on this question since last month when 26% had a favorable perception of Weiner, 63% had an unfavorable view of him, and 11% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

End Stop and Frisk, Say 52%… de Blasio Bests Competition on Issue 

More than half of New York City registered Democrats — 52% — do not want the next mayor to continue the controversial policy of stop and frisk.  40% want the practice to be continued, and 9% are unsure.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, 48% of registered Democrats wanted to put an end to stop and frisk.  44% wanted the policy to continue, and 8% were unsure.

With which candidate do New York City registered Democrats most closely identify on this issue?  37% report de Blasio’s position on stop and frisk comes closest to their opinion.  22% believe Thompson’s stance on the issue best reflects their own while 21% think Quinn’s position on stop and frisk is closest to their view.  Three percent believe another candidate is the closest match, and 17% are unsure.

Table: Should the Next Mayor Continue Stop and Frisk (NYC Democrats)

Table: Candidate who Comes Closest to Personal Opinion of Stop and Frisk (NYC Democrats)

De Blasio Viewed as Candidate Most Capable of Making City Affordable 

While almost six in ten registered Democrats in New York City believe making the city more affordable is out of the next mayor’s control, nearly four in ten Democrats say Bill de Blasio is the candidate who would be most able to ease the cost of living for the average family.

59% of registered Democrats citywide believe the cost of living in New York City is beyond the mayor’s control.  35% think the next mayor will be able to make the city more affordable, and 6% are unsure.  In June, 58% of registered Democrats said making the city more affordable was out of the mayor’s control.  35%, then, believed the next mayor could make the city more affordable, and 7% were unsure.

39% of registered Democrats have the most confidence in de Blasio to make the city more affordable.  24% say Thompson is the candidate best suited to take on the challenge while 20% say Quinn is most capable of improving the cost of living for the average family in New York City.  Four percent believe another candidate would be best able to make the Big Apple more affordable, and 13% are unsure.

How many registered Democrats in the city think it is an affordable place to live?  Just 12% think New York City is affordable.  This includes 2% who say it is very affordable and 10% who believe it is affordable.  A majority — 56% — reports it is not very affordable, and 33% say it is not affordable at all.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on June 27th, 14% of Democrats considered the city to be very affordable or affordable.  57% reported it was not very affordable, and 28% thought it was not affordable at all.

Table: Will the Next Mayor Make New York City More Affordable? (NYC Democrats)

Table: Candidate Best Able to Make NYC Affordable (NYC Democrats)

Table: The Cost of Living in New York City (NYC Democrats)

Paying a Toll for Extending Term Limits? 

In 2008, term limits were extended to allow Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for a third term.  When it comes to their vote for mayor now, do registered Democrats in New York City care whether or not a candidate supported that extension?  While 52% report it makes little difference to their vote, 36% say it makes them less likely to vote for such a candidate.  Only 9% report it makes them more likely to back a candidate, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Impact of Support for Term Limit Extension on Vote (NYC Democrats)

From the Stump to the Tube… de Blasio Gains Most from Campaign Commercials

A majority of registered Democrats — 51% — who have seen a campaign television commercial for de Blasio, Quinn, and Thompson think de Blasio’s ads top the charts.  20% say Thompson’s commercials are best while 16% believe Quinn’s campaign ads are most appealing.  13% are unsure.

What kind of an impact are these campaign television commercials having?  59% of registered Democrats who have seen an ad for de Blasio say they like him more after viewing it.  16% believe the information they gathered from the commercial made them like him less while 22% say the ad made no difference.  Three percent are unsure.  73% of registered Democrats report they have viewed a television ad for de Blasio.  25% have not, and 2% are unsure.

When it comes to Thompson, a majority of those who have seen one of his television commercials — 51% — say the ad made them like Thompson more after they saw it.  15%, however, say it had a negative impact on their opinion of the candidate, and 29% say it made no difference.  Four percent are unsure.  69% of registered Democrats citywide have seen a Thompson television commercial.  29% have not, and 2% are unsure.

While the television commercials for de Blasio and Thompson have been well received by registered Democrats, the same cannot be said for Quinn.  Just 36% of registered Democrats who have seen a television ad for Quinn say it made them like her more.  33% report it made them like her less, and 28% say it did not have an impact.  Three percent are unsure.  72% of registered Democrats have seen a television advertisement for Quinn.  26% have not, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Candidate with Best Campaign Ad (NYC Democrats Who Have Seen an Ad for de Blasio, Quinn, and Thompson)

Table: Impact of de Blasio Ads (NYC Democrats Who Have Seen an Ad for de Blasio)

Table: Seen a Campaign Ad for Bill de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Impact of Thompson Ads (NYC Democrats Who Have Seen an Ad for Thompson)

Table: Seen a Campaign Ad for Bill Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Impact of Quinn Ads (NYC Democrats Who Have Seen an Ad for Quinn)

Table: Seen a Campaign Ad for Christine Quinn (NYC Democrats)

NYC Comptroller’s Race Too Close to Call

In the Democratic contest for New York City comptroller, Eliot Spitzer — 47% — and Scott Stringer — 45% — are in a tight contest among likely Democratic voters in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  Less than one percent supports someone else, and 7% are undecided.

In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s August survey, 54% of Democrats who said they were likely to vote in the primary, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, backed Spitzer.  36% were for Stringer, and 1% was behind another candidate.  Nine percent were undecided.

When it comes to intensity of support, 54% of likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference for comptroller strongly support their choice of candidate.  32% are somewhat behind their selection for comptroller while 13% might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.  57% of likely Democratic voters who support Stringer are firmly committed to him.  This compares with 51% of Spitzer’s backers who strongly support him.

At a lower turnout, among very likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, Scott Stringer — 47% — is closely matched with Eliot Spitzer — 46%.  One percent supports someone else, and 7% are undecided.

“Stringer has closed a once double-digit lead by Spitzer to make this a tossup,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If turnout is low, Stringer’s chances of winning improve.”

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, 49% are for Spitzer compared with 41% for Stringer.  One percent want to elect another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

In August’s survey, Spitzer had the support of 53% of these voters compared with 34% who supported Stringer.  One percent, at that time, was for another candidate, and 11% were undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democratic Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for Comptroller Candidates (NYC Democratic Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Bloomberg Approval Rating Status Quo 

46% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 14% who think he is doing an excellent job and 32% who believe he is doing a good one.  33% rate Bloomberg’s performance as fair while 19% say he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.  Registered Democrats have a similar impression of how the mayor is doing in office.  44% approve of Mayor Bloomberg’s job performance while 54% do not.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist reported this question in August, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks.  31% thought his job performance was fair while 21% said he fell short.  Five percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters’ Impressions of City’s Direction Little Changed 

47% of registered voters citywide think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  43% believe it is moving on the wrong path, and 10% are unsure.  The city’s registered Democrats share this view.  47% are upbeat about the city’s trajectory, and 44% think it must change its course.  Nine percent are unsure.

In August, 46% of registered voters said the city was on the right track.  40% believed it was on the wrong course, and 14% were undecided.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

8/16: Tight Race in Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor… Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

August 16, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With less than a month to go until Primary Day, Democrats Christine Quinn and Bill de Blasio are locked in a tight race in their pursuit of the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor.  Bill Thompson is currently in third.  Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, just eight percentage points separate these three candidates, and only six percentage points are between them among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.  The scandal-ridden Anthony Weiner trails in fourth place.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 21% Bill de Blasio
  • 16% Bill Thompson
  • 12% Anthony Weiner
  •   6% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   3% Other
  • 15% Undecided

Click Here for Complete August 16, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“It’s been a topsy-turvy summer, and many Democratic voters are still waiting to be convinced,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although voters have yet to sort things out, Bill de Blasio has shown the biggest gain in the last couple of weeks.”

It was a very different contest just three weeks ago when the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question on July 25th.  At that time, Quinn — 25% — outpaced Weiner — 16% — by nine percentage points among New York City Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  De Blasio and Thompson each received the support of 14% of the Democratic electorate.  At that time, 7% backed John Liu while Erick Salgado had 2%.  One percent supported Sal Albanese, 2% were for another candidate, and 19% were undecided.

Where Are Top-Tier Candidates’ Strengths?

  • Quinn does better among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 33%, live in Manhattan — 30%, or who approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office — 29%.  She also does well among Democrats who are Catholic — 28% or Latino — 27%.
  • De Blasio does well among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 36%, who are Jewish — 30%, who live in Manhattan — 27%, or who earn $50,000 or more annually — 27%.  De Blasio has improved his standing among Democrats who are African American.  He currently receives the support of 20% of African American Democrats compared with 10% in the last poll.
  • Thompson does better among Democrats who are African American — 22%, but generally receives similar support from most other groups.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, de Blasio and Quinn each receive 24%.  18% back Thompson.  Weiner has the support of 11% of Democrats who are likely to cast a ballot while 5% are behind Liu.  Two percent are for Salgado, and 1% backs Albanese.  Credico has the support of 1%, and Grimaldi receives less than one percent.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

When it comes to intensity of support, a plurality of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference — 43% — say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  37% are somewhat committed to their pick while 17% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 42% said they were firmly committed to their candidate.  32% were somewhat behind their choice while 23% thought they might change their mind before casting their ballot.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

48% of de Blasio’s supporters say they will not waiver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 41% of New York City Democrats who rally for Thompson and 35% of those who are for Quinn.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Lhota Leads Catsimatidis for GOP Nod

Looking at the contest for the Republican nomination for mayor, Joe Lhota continues to have the advantage over John Catsimatidis.  George McDonald trails his GOP opponents by double-digits.  However, three in ten Republicans in New York City have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small number of registered Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 33% Joe Lhota
  • 22% John Catsimatidis
  • 12% George McDonald
  •   2% Other
  • 30% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, Lhota — 28% — led Catsimatidis — 21% — by 7 percentage points among New York City Republicans, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  10% backed George McDonald, and 1% were for another candidate.  40% were undecided.

How strongly committed are Republicans to their choice of candidate?  43% of those with a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice.  34% are somewhat behind their pick while 17% might change their mind.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Republican Mayoralty Candidate (NYC Republicans with a Candidate Preference)

No Runaway in Runoff Races… But de Blasio has Edge 

If none of the candidates receive 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary for mayor, a runoff for the Democratic nomination will be held.  How would the top-tier candidates fare in such a situation?

Among New York City Democrats:

  • When de Blasio and Quinn face off, de Blasio receives the support of 44% of registered Democrats compared with 42% for Quinn.  14% are undecided.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s June poll, Quinn — 47% — outpaced de Blasio — 33% — by 14 percentage points.  21% were undecided. Among likely Democratic voters, 47% are currently for de Blasio compared with 40% for Quinn.  12% are undecided.
  • Thompson — 44% — and Quinn — 43% — are also neck and neck among registered Democrats.  12% are undecided.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question nearly two months ago, Quinn received the support of 42% of Democrats compared with 40% for Thompson.  18%, at the time, were undecided.  Looking at likely Democratic voters this time, Thompson garners 47% to 42% for Quinn.  11% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives 44% compared with 36% for Thompson in a runoff among registered Democrats.  20% are undecided.  Among likely Democratic voters in this   survey, 47% are for de Blasio while 36% back Thompson.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Thompson vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Boost for de Blasio… Weiner’s Favorability at New Low

A majority of registered Democrats citywide view the top-tier Democratic candidates running for mayor positively.  This includes de Blasio who enjoys a bump in his positive rating.  Anthony Weiner’s favorability rating has sunk to an all-time low.

  • Nearly six in ten New York City Democrats — 59% — have a positive impression of de Blasio while 14% have an unfavorable view of the candidate.  26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, 52% thought highly of de Blasio.  19% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 56% of registererd Democrats have a favorable view of Thompson.  18% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In June, 60% had a positive opinion of Thompson, and 16% had an unfavorable impression of him.  25%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of registered Democrats — 54% — has a favorable impression of Quinn.  32% have an unfavorable opinion of her while 13% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In June, 57% thought well of Quinn, 29% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • When it comes to Weiner, 63% of registered Democrats citywide have an unfavorable opinion of him.  26% think well of him while 11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 55% had an unfavorable opinion of Weiner.  30% had a positive impression of the candidate, and 15% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

 

Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

In the Democratic primary for New York City comptroller, Eliot Spitzer receives majority support — 53% — among New York City registered Democrats including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  This compares with 34% for Scott Stringer.  One percent is for another candidate, and 11% are undecided.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 49% backed Spitzer, and 32% were for Stringer.  Two percent backed another candidate, and 17% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 54% are behind Spitzer while 36% are for Stringer.  One percent backs another candidate, and 9% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer — 48% — led Stringer — 36% — by 12 percentage points among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

48% of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference for comptroller strongly support their choice.  37% are somewhat committed to their candidate while 14% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

More registered Democrats today are strongly committed to their candidate selection for comptroller.  When this question was last reported on July 11th, 39% of Democrats with a candidate preference said they were firmly committed to their choice, and 36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick.  22% thought they might vote differently, and 2% were unsure.

A majority of Spitzer’s supporters — 51% — say they are firmly committed to their candidate.  This compares with 43% of Stringer’s backers who say the same.  There has been a notable increase in the proportion of Democrats who strongly support Stringer.  In early July, 30% of Stringer’s supporters were firmly committed to him.  This compares with 47% of those who firmly backed Spitzer at that time.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Comptroller Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Majority of Democrats Are Undecided in Public Advocate Race 

In the contest for the Democratic nomination for New York City’s public advocate, 51% of registered Democrats are undecided about which candidate to support.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 16% Letitia James
  • 12% Catherine Guerriero
  •   9% Daniel Squadron
  •   3% Reshma Saujani
  •   2% Sidique Wai
  •   7% Other
  • 51% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in its June 26th poll, James received the support of 17% of New York City registered Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  16% supported Guerriero.  Eight percent backed Squadron, and 4% were for Saujani.  Less than one percent supported another candidate, and 54% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 16% support James. Guerriero and Squadron each receives the backing of 12%.  Saujani has 3%, and 2% are for Wai.  Six percent want to elect another candidate, and 49% are undecided.

Among registered Democrats with a candidate preference for public advocate, 38% are strongly committed to their candidate.  34% somewhat back their choice while 25% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

In June, 34% strongly supported their candidate.  43% were somewhat behind their choice for public advocate while 20% reported they might change their mind.  Two percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

44% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 11% who say he is doing an excellent job and 33% who think he is doing a good one.  31% rate his performance as fair while 21% report he is doing poorly in office.  Five percent are unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 11th, similar proportions held these views.  46% said Bloomberg was doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  28% gave him fair grades while 21% believed his performance fell short.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)


 

A City on Track?

46% of registered voters in the Big Apple believe New York City is moving in the right direction.  40% think it is traveling in the wrong direction, and 14% are unsure.  This is the first time since September 2011 that the proportion of voters citywide who think the city is on the right course has fallen below 50%.  At that time, 42% said the city was on track, 52% reported it was off course, and 6% were unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in July, a slim majority of voters — 51% — said the city was moving in the right direction.  35% believed it needed a new course, and 14% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Next Page »