1/13: On the Ground in New Hampshire

It’s a political junkie’s drug – New Hampshire in the days leading up to the primary. 2012 marked the Marist Poll’s seventh venture to the Granite State, but I was a newbie. Here’s the back story.  Plain and simple, I love politics!  My passion for politics began fairly early in life, debating politics with family at the tender age of 12.  (With wisdom, I have learned to refrain from such discussions at family dinners.) There are a couple of political endeavors to my credit.  Two valiant, yet failed, efforts – one in junior high and one in high school — for class president. ... 

1/4: Iowa Polls Chronicle Caucus Contest

The often cited fear of pollster par-excellence Richard Wirthlin about Iowa being the “ultimate sand trap” for pollsters did not materialize this time around.   In fact, throughout the summer and in the closing days of the campaign, the public polls provided an accurate narrative of the surges and declines of candidate support.  And, there were many.  The roller coaster ride had most of the candidates occupying the lead car at one point or another.  The ride ended with an insightful entrance poll last night. Along the way, the public was informed about the inability of “front-runner”... 

1/3: Pollster Spin for Wednesday Morning

Dear Pollsters, Pols, and Press, As you head to New Hampshire, I thought I’d save you time by providing a little pre-caucus, post-caucus pollster spin. Case #1: Why our Iowa polls were actually very, very accurate really. 1.       We interviewed over 3,000 people to eventually distill the number down to a reasonable sample of likely Iowa caucus-goers.  The model of likely participants turned out so well we plan to issue a patent.  On second thought, we will maintain our policy of transparency and disclosure.  I’m also wondering if the combined number of likely participants identified... 

12/8: Why GOP Primary Poll Numbers Could Be Wrong

10. Many voters waiting until November 12th to make up their minds 9. Romney voters claim our questions are biased by asking about the Newt Hampshire primary 8. GOP voters torn between anybody-but-Obama vote and anybody-but-Romney vote 7. Couldn’t find enough people in Lexington and Concord voting in the New Hampshire primary 6. Voters agree with Paul that the Trump debate turns reality politics into reality TV.  Yet, they still don’t want Iran to have a nuke 5. Tea Party voters were at Tea Party when we tried to reach them 4. Likely voters suddenly switched to not-likely voters when they... 

10/24: Back to the Presidential Future

Can’t be certain just yet if the future for campaign ’12 will turn out to be as we remember it, I have this nagging feeling that we’ve experienced something resembling this year’s fisticuffs way back when.  I’m thinking of the presidential campaigns of 1968, 1972, and 1976 and am not sure which path we are on this election cycle. In the turbulent and tragic times of 1968, we witnessed an explosive reaction from the progressive side of society targeted at an incumbent Democratic president.  The more conservative GOP couldn’t serve as an outlet for the frustration... 

10/11: What the Numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire Mean

The NBC News/Marist Poll for January’s GOP New Hampshire Primary (it really won’t be in December, will it?) and the Iowa Caucus reveal some very interesting political tidbits.  Sure, we’re still several months away from these much awaited events but likely New Hampshire voters and likely Iowa caucus-goers are picking sides. No big surprise so far in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary.  New Hampshire neighbor Mitt Romney has a wide lead over the GOP field.  Iowa may eventually be the table setter for whom Romney has to take on in New Hampshire.  But, no clear... 

9/28: Behind the NBC News/Marist Poll

Suffice it to say, the team at The Marist Poll is pleased to join forces with NBC News to provide independent and accurate poll data and analysis on the upcoming GOP presidential primary/caucus sweepstakes.  Through this partnership, the public will receive what Marist College students have been participating in for more than three decades, namely, a front row seat to the political process.  Marist College students learn by doing.  Now, we intend to open up the classroom to the public and demystify the process of conducting public opinion polls. Beyond the horse race numbers of who is ahead... 

9/7: GOP Debate or Battle Royal?

Expect Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment of GOP politics to be broken as the large field of Republican presidential wannabes meet in three debates during the next three weeks.  And, with good reason. So far, it’s been a race that has probably attracted at least as much attention for those who have chosen not to run (Huckabee, Daniels, Barbour, Pataki), those who have already ended their candidacy (Pawlenty), and those who have yet not declared their intentions (Palin, Giuliani) as it has for those who are traipsing around Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The oddity about this... 

7/8: The GOP for 2012

What is particularly striking about our recent national poll on campaign 2012 is the lack of definition of the GOP field of White House wannabes.   Mitt Romney, the generally recognized front-runner, has the support of a mere 19% of Republican and Republican leaning independents.  Not exactly emulating Secretariat’s run in the Belmont Stakes.  Romney is trying to make President Obama’s handling of the economy the central issue of the campaign in the worst possible way.  With his latest flip-flop, it seems he’s doing just that. Then, there’s the bench, the second tier in the poll numbers. ... 

4/29: Political Grab Bag

The recent national McClatchy-Marist Poll contains many interesting nuggets.  Here are a few worth examining more closely: Obama in Trouble? The numbers suggest that President Obama’s re-election prospects could be in jeopardy.  With everything going for him in ’08, he tallied 53%.  Now, only 37% of the electorate tells us they would definitely vote to re-elect him. “Why Not Me,” Asks the GOP Field The GOP clearly wants to run against Obama in the worst possible way, and, so far, that’s exactly what they’ve been doing.  With a potential field of more than a dozen candidate wannabes,... 

3/2: Does Senator Thune’s Announcement Really Shake up the GOP Field?

Last week, South Dakota’s junior senator, John Thune, announced he would not seek the GOP nod for president in 2012.  For someone who is barely an asterisk in the extremely early pre-election polls, this “news” created more than just a ripple.  No one was really expecting Thune to take this wire to wire.  No one was referencing failed South Dakotan 1972 Democratic candidate George McGovern with an “as South Dakota goes, so goes the nation.”  And, certainly, no one was racing up to Mt. Rushmore to take measurements for further excavation. A couple of points on the...