11/28: Mitofsky Still Teaching

It’s been 6 years since our mentor, colleague, and friend’s death.   Warren Mitofsky was a clear thinker and major innovator of the public polling community.  Beyond his methodological rigor, he communicated long-lasting, yet, simple messages to the profession.  His thoughts remain vital through the 2012 election cycle. Despite this year’s successful scientifically based public polls, the road was rocky, beset by a drum-beat of critics.  Yet, Warren’s frequently uttered message, now ably echoed by Joe Lenski, remains a guide.  “Believe your numbers!” If... 

11/5: On Election Eve…

When it comes to public opinion polls, this election cycle has had more shoot the messenger reactions than ever before.  There’s little doubt that pollsters are  in season for October and November. Maybe this results from the growing twitter-sphere. I can’t recall the number of times I’ve had to explain that we don’t weight by party, can’t weight by party, and shouldn’t weight by party.  Party identification is a variable that moves from election to election and from poll to poll.  If you had used the ’04 exit polls as a guide for ’08, McCain... 

11/5: A Nod to Democracy

With all the political spin, polarization, and cynicism that accompanies much of the chatter about Campaign 2012, it’s easy to lose sight of what Election Day represents.  At the Marist Poll at Marist College, the election season (which seems to get longer and longer) is a time to engage our students and provide a “laboratory” to understand democracy in action. Since last fall, more than 500 Marist College undergraduates spoke first hand to voters across the country about their views on the presidential election, the economy, foreign policy and important issues and events of the day.  As... 

8/29: Getting a Bounce?

The GOP convention is (finally) off and running followed next week by the Democratic gathering.  With Obama and Romney closely matched at the start of these two quadrennial events, as they have been since Romney emerged as the presumptive GOP nominee, what should we expect poll number-wise once the final gavel goes down in Charlotte? Post-convention bounces are often dissected for any hint that the character of the contest has changed.  Yet, typically 5% has been about all a candidate can count on, and that advantage often quickly dissipates. Don’t be surprised this go-around if the Romney... 

8/29: What About the Economy?

Whatever happened to this election being about the economy and only the economy? Well, the summer months ushered in a slew of back and forth arguments between the Obama and Romney campaigns which had little to do with what Romney hoped would be a referendum on President Obama and the stalled economic recovery. Instead of staying on his jobs message, we’ve witnessed a Romney campaign having to handle Supreme Court decisions on immigration and health care, his role with Bain Capital, outsourcing, Swiss bank accounts, the reluctance to release his income tax returns, a gaffe-filled trip to... 

7/11: But Wait, There’s More

Are you in search of the definitive narrative for decision ’12?  Each time something BIG happens…an Obama or a Romney gaffe, the SCOTUS ruling on immigration or health care, the latest jobs numbers etc… the pundit and polling communities pounce on it as the storyline for the election. Well, chattering class, be patient.  It is true the candidates are already in high gear and the ad makers are regularly launching their missiles, but national polls and battleground state polls continue to show the race to be close.  The more things change, the more they stay the same. Certainly,... 

7/11: Shaping Public Opinion

With recent public polls showing many Americans unaware of the SCOTUS health care decision, it gives pause for thought.  How much attention  does the public really pay to news coverage of issues thought to shape Decision ’12? Let’s take a different example.  Aside from the partisan spin that accompanied the latest 8.2% Labor Department offering, is this figure what Americans rely on to determine if the economy is on the mend, stalled, or deteriorating, or is there something else that’s working on the American psyche? For arguments sake, let’s put the unemployment numbers... 

6/27: From the Survey to the Trail

Sure. Early public polls both national and state are open to the charge of not being predictive.  National polls carry the added burden of not necessarily reflecting the electoral college state-by-state vote. Now, if you don’t want to be a public poll-tracker but are interested in the ups and downs of the campaign, there’s an easy way out.  Just follow where Obama, Romney, and their surrogates are campaigning (not raising money).  That’ll provide you with a short-hand map of the battleground states and who is fighting on whose turf. However, if you want to gain insight beyond... 

6/7: Enough with the Labels

The Senate’s failure to pass the “Paycheck Equality Act” has been perceived by some as the latest political affront by Democrats to accuse Republicans of waging a war on women. Whether a mother, sister, aunt, or daughter, you can’t have a family without a woman.  And, yet, the Republicans, the party of the family, accuse the Democrats of destroying the family by their stance on social issues.  Is it me, or is there just a slight hint of hypocrisy emanating from both sides? Every political season has its fair share of rhetoric, but even early on, 2012’s combative flames are reaching... 

5/30: Don’t Cell Out!

It should be the battle cry of all pollsters and poll watchers interested in accuracy when it comes to presidential polling.  The problems of reaching cell phone only respondents are well documented.  But, measurements of the Obama-Romney horse race that rely solely on landline households do so at great peril. Check out the results from the recent NBC News/Marist Polls of swing states.  In Florida, Romney is +3% with landline voters, but Obama is +23% with cell phones.  In Virginia, it’s pretty much the same… Romney +1% with landlines, Obama is +18% among cells.  Owing to his wider lead... 

5/30: It’ll Still Be the Economy, But Maybe We’re Just a Little Dense

Every 20 years or so something punches through the chattering class, and its shelf-life seems timeless.  For an earlier generation, “What did the president know, and when did he know it?” took the crown, followed by Carter’s “Malaise,” and perhaps, Reagan’s “I am paying for this microphone” proclamation.  Since then, the classic, “It’s the economy stupid!” tops the list of campaign bottom lines. For campaign 2012, this refrain is once again ringing clear.  In the latest round of NBC News/Marist swing states polls, all things economic eclipsed everything else including social... 

1/13: On the Ground in New Hampshire

It’s a political junkie’s drug – New Hampshire in the days leading up to the primary. 2012 marked the Marist Poll’s seventh venture to the Granite State, but I was a newbie. Here’s the back story.  Plain and simple, I love politics!  My passion for politics began fairly early in life, debating politics with family at the tender age of 12.  (With wisdom, I have learned to refrain from such discussions at family dinners.) There are a couple of political endeavors to my credit.  Two valiant, yet failed, efforts – one in junior high and one in high school — for class president. ... 

1/4: Iowa Polls Chronicle Caucus Contest

The often cited fear of pollster par-excellence Richard Wirthlin about Iowa being the “ultimate sand trap” for pollsters did not materialize this time around.   In fact, throughout the summer and in the closing days of the campaign, the public polls provided an accurate narrative of the surges and declines of candidate support.  And, there were many.  The roller coaster ride had most of the candidates occupying the lead car at one point or another.  The ride ended with an insightful entrance poll last night. Along the way, the public was informed about the inability of “front-runner”... 

1/3: Pollster Spin for Wednesday Morning

Dear Pollsters, Pols, and Press, As you head to New Hampshire, I thought I’d save you time by providing a little pre-caucus, post-caucus pollster spin. Case #1: Why our Iowa polls were actually very, very accurate really. 1.       We interviewed over 3,000 people to eventually distill the number down to a reasonable sample of likely Iowa caucus-goers.  The model of likely participants turned out so well we plan to issue a patent.  On second thought, we will maintain our policy of transparency and disclosure.  I’m also wondering if the combined number of likely participants identified... 

12/8: Why GOP Primary Poll Numbers Could Be Wrong

10. Many voters waiting until November 12th to make up their minds 9. Romney voters claim our questions are biased by asking about the Newt Hampshire primary 8. GOP voters torn between anybody-but-Obama vote and anybody-but-Romney vote 7. Couldn’t find enough people in Lexington and Concord voting in the New Hampshire primary 6. Voters agree with Paul that the Trump debate turns reality politics into reality TV.  Yet, they still don’t want Iran to have a nuke 5. Tea Party voters were at Tea Party when we tried to reach them 4. Likely voters suddenly switched to not-likely voters when they... 

10/24: Back to the Presidential Future

Can’t be certain just yet if the future for campaign ’12 will turn out to be as we remember it, I have this nagging feeling that we’ve experienced something resembling this year’s fisticuffs way back when.  I’m thinking of the presidential campaigns of 1968, 1972, and 1976 and am not sure which path we are on this election cycle. In the turbulent and tragic times of 1968, we witnessed an explosive reaction from the progressive side of society targeted at an incumbent Democratic president.  The more conservative GOP couldn’t serve as an outlet for the frustration... 

10/11: What the Numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire Mean

The NBC News/Marist Poll for January’s GOP New Hampshire Primary (it really won’t be in December, will it?) and the Iowa Caucus reveal some very interesting political tidbits.  Sure, we’re still several months away from these much awaited events but likely New Hampshire voters and likely Iowa caucus-goers are picking sides. No big surprise so far in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary.  New Hampshire neighbor Mitt Romney has a wide lead over the GOP field.  Iowa may eventually be the table setter for whom Romney has to take on in New Hampshire.  But, no clear... 

9/28: Behind the NBC News/Marist Poll

Suffice it to say, the team at The Marist Poll is pleased to join forces with NBC News to provide independent and accurate poll data and analysis on the upcoming GOP presidential primary/caucus sweepstakes.  Through this partnership, the public will receive what Marist College students have been participating in for more than three decades, namely, a front row seat to the political process.  Marist College students learn by doing.  Now, we intend to open up the classroom to the public and demystify the process of conducting public opinion polls. Beyond the horse race numbers of who is ahead... 

9/7: GOP Debate or Battle Royal?

Expect Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment of GOP politics to be broken as the large field of Republican presidential wannabes meet in three debates during the next three weeks.  And, with good reason. So far, it’s been a race that has probably attracted at least as much attention for those who have chosen not to run (Huckabee, Daniels, Barbour, Pataki), those who have already ended their candidacy (Pawlenty), and those who have yet not declared their intentions (Palin, Giuliani) as it has for those who are traipsing around Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The oddity about this... 

7/8: The GOP for 2012

What is particularly striking about our recent national poll on campaign 2012 is the lack of definition of the GOP field of White House wannabes.   Mitt Romney, the generally recognized front-runner, has the support of a mere 19% of Republican and Republican leaning independents.  Not exactly emulating Secretariat’s run in the Belmont Stakes.  Romney is trying to make President Obama’s handling of the economy the central issue of the campaign in the worst possible way.  With his latest flip-flop, it seems he’s doing just that. Then, there’s the bench, the second tier in the poll numbers. ... 

4/29: Political Grab Bag

The recent national McClatchy-Marist Poll contains many interesting nuggets.  Here are a few worth examining more closely: Obama in Trouble? The numbers suggest that President Obama’s re-election prospects could be in jeopardy.  With everything going for him in ’08, he tallied 53%.  Now, only 37% of the electorate tells us they would definitely vote to re-elect him. “Why Not Me,” Asks the GOP Field The GOP clearly wants to run against Obama in the worst possible way, and, so far, that’s exactly what they’ve been doing.  With a potential field of more than a dozen candidate wannabes,... 

3/2: Does Senator Thune’s Announcement Really Shake up the GOP Field?

Last week, South Dakota’s junior senator, John Thune, announced he would not seek the GOP nod for president in 2012.  For someone who is barely an asterisk in the extremely early pre-election polls, this “news” created more than just a ripple.  No one was really expecting Thune to take this wire to wire.  No one was referencing failed South Dakotan 1972 Democratic candidate George McGovern with an “as South Dakota goes, so goes the nation.”  And, certainly, no one was racing up to Mt. Rushmore to take measurements for further excavation. A couple of points on the...