May 4, 2009

5/4: Dismal Outlook for Paterson in 2010

Looking ahead to next year’s gubernatorial election in New York, saying Governor David Paterson has his work cut out for him is an understatement. When up against former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Governor Paterson loses to Giuliani among New York State registered voters by more than 20 percentage points – 32% to 56%, respectively. Paterson does receive a slim majority of his own party in this hypothetical matchup. However, non-enrolled voters support Giuliani by more than two-to-one. In Marist’s March 2009 survey, Governor Paterson trailed Giuliani — 38% to 53%.

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Paterson’s prospects look a little better when pitted against fomer U.S. Representative Rick Lazio. The two are in a statistical dead heat with Lazio receiving 40% of the electorate and Paterson netting 37%. 23% of voters are unsure. However, in March, Paterson actually led Lazio by 12 percentage points – 47% to 35%.

Table: Paterson/Giuliani 2010 Matchup
Table: Paterson/Lazio 2010 Matchup

Cuomo: Dems’ Pick for 2010…GOPers Back Giuliani

If the Democratic primary for New York State governor were held today, Andrew Cuomo would crush Governor Paterson’s hopes for a full four year term in Albany. 70% of the state’s Democrats report they would vote for Cuomo compared with 21% who say they would cast their ballot for Paterson. Cuomo has actually widened his lead against Paterson.

The Marist Poll reported in March that 62% of the electorate thought Cuomo should be their party’s nominee compared with 26% for Paterson. Looking to the Republican primary, Rudy Giuliani would be the Republicans’ choice when up against Rick Lazio. Three-quarters of New York State Republicans say they would back Giuliani while 14% would support Lazio. There has been little change in support among New York Republicans since Marist’s March poll.

Table: 2010 Democratic Primary
Table: 2010 Republican Primary

Victory: A Would-be Walk in the Park for Cuomo?

What if New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo receives the Democratic nomination for governor next year instead of David Paterson? Simply put, Cuomo blows the competition away. When matched up against Republican Rick Lazio, Cuomo defeats Lazio in this hypothetical pairing, 67% to 22%. The race is a little tighter when Cuomo squares off against Rudy Giuliani. However, Cuomo would still beat Giuliani handily. Cuomo currently garners the support of 55% of the state’s electorate compared with 38% for Giuliani. These findings are comparable to those in The Marist Poll’s March 2009 survey.

Table: Cuomo/Lazio 2010 Matchup
Table: Cuomo/Giuliani 2010 Matchup

Marist Poll Methodology

5/4: Gillibrand Needs to Make Positive Inroads with NY Electorate

5/4: Schumer’s Job Approval Rating: Rock Solid?

5/4: Cuomo: Top-Rated NY Politician

5/4: DiNapoli Holds Firm…36% Unsure How to Rate Him

5/4: Obama…On a Roll With New York Voters

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff discusses Paterson’s bleak re-election hopes: