8/15: Views on Same-Sex Marriage: Supporters Look to Feds, Opponents More to States

A majority of Americans favor legalizing same-sex marriage, but there is little consensus about whether the decision should be made on the federal or state level.  Supporters of legalizing same-sex marriage think the issue should be decided for the entire country by a federal law.  Half of those who oppose it believe it should be determined by the states.

And, while Americans’ position on legalizing same sex marriage is a driving factor in the debate, political party affiliation matters, too.  Democrats are more likely to turn to the federal level, and Republicans look more to the states.  Independents are closer to the Democrats on whether to seek federal or state action.

Support for same-sex marriage has grown significantly over the past decade.  And, there has been a sea change in attitudes among Americans toward people who are gay over the past thirty years. Sexual orientation has become less of a societal taboo.  More than seven in ten Americans personally know someone who is gay.  And, for more than half of adults nationally, say their circle of friends, family, and colleagues now includes more people who are gay than a decade ago.

Most people believe it would make no difference to their vote if their party nominated someone who was gay.  And, although about one in three parents would still be upset to learn their child was gay, there has been a major shift in attitudes and acceptance since the mid-1980s.

Complete August 15, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll

“You would be hard pressed to find an issue that’s had a bigger shift in public opinion over the last several decades than this one,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Poll Points

  • 51% of registered voters think the decision to legalize same-sex marriage should be made by federal law, 44% believe it is a state’s issue, and 6% are unsure.
  • Support for a federal law to resolve the debate over same-sex marriage is being propelled by Americans who believe it should be legalized.  Although a notable proportion of opponents are also looking to the federal government to settle the issue, 50% of Americans who oppose legalizing same-sex marriage believe it is a state matter.
  • A partisan divide exists.  64% of Democrats and 52% of Independent voters favor a federal mandate.  In contrast, 59% of Republicans want the issue to be decided at the state level.

Majority Supports Same-Sex Marriage

  • When it comes to support for legalizing same-sex marriage, 54% of Americans either strongly favor or favor doing so.  According to trend data from the Pew Research Center, support for gay marriage has been on an upswing, reaching a plurality of support among Americans in 2011 and majority support just last year in 2013.
  • Attitudes about legalizing gay marriage fall along party lines with more than six in ten Democrats, 62%, favoring the action.  A similar proportion of Republicans, 63%, are against it.  Age also matters.  65% of Americans under 45 years of age support legalization of same-sex marriage compared with 44% of their older counterparts who share this view.
  • More than one in ten Americans, 12%, has changed their opinion on legalizing same-sex marriage, favoring it now while opposing it previously.  Only 1% now opposes allowing same-sex couples to marry when they once favored legalization.

Sea Change

  • 71% of Americans know someone who is gay, and 52% of adults nationally say the number of gay and lesbian people they know has grown over the past ten years.  This is especially true for younger Americans.  When the Pew Research Center asked a similar question in 1999, only 39% of Americans said they had a friend, colleague, or family member who was gay.
  • More than eight in ten adults, 83%, say knowledge that a congressional candidate is gay or lesbian would make no difference in how they vote.  14% would be less likely to cast their ballot for a gay or lesbian candidate.  The Los Angeles Times Poll asked this question of Americans in 1985.  At that time, 49% said a candidate’s sexual orientation would not make any difference in deciding their vote, and 47% reported they were less likely to cast their ballot if a candidate was gay.
  • 62% of Americans would not be upset if their child were gay, including 48% who would not be upset at all and 14% who describe their reaction as not very upset.  35% of adults nationally would be upset if their child came out to them.  This includes 13% of residents who would be very upset and 22% who would be somewhat upset.  Age matters.  21% of Americans under 30 would be upset if their child shared this with them compared with about one-third of adults between 30 and 59 years of age and nearly half, 48%, of Americans 60 or older.
  • But, attitudes are significantly different than they were in 1985.  In a Los Angeles Times Poll, conducted nearly thirty years ago, 89% of Americans said they would be troubled if their child was gay.  In that earlier poll, 64% of Americans characterized their reaction as very upset and 25% were somewhat upset.  Five percent said they would not be very upset, and only 4%, then, said they would not be upset at all.

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8/14: McClatchy-Marist Poll

What are Americans’ attitudes toward same-sex marriage?  Do Americans know more or less people who are gay or lesbian than in the past, and how would residents nationally feel if they found out their child was gay?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.



8/14: Clinton Leads GOP Rivals, but Loses Ground

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still favored against several of her potential Republican opponents among registered voters nationally, but she no longer is backed by the majority of the electorate.  In fact, Clinton’s once double-digital lead against GOP hopefuls former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has eroded.  Clinton’s change of fortune is largely due to a shift among independent voters among whom she still leads but not by the margins she did before.

Complete August 14, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll

But, as for who the Republican nominee will be, that’s still anybody’s guess.  With nearly one in four Republican and Republican leaning independents undecided, an increase from just months ago, no clear front-runner has emerged from the pack.  Bush and Christie currently top the leader board with low double-digit support.  Ted Cruz is the only other Republican candidate to reach ten percent.

“There is no pre-season for team Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “She needs to perform at Super Bowl level from start to finish.”

Poll Points

  • Clinton leads Jeb Bush, 48% to 41%, among registered voters nationally (Trend).  She receives similar support against Chris Christie, 47% to 41% (Trend), and Rand Paul, 48% to 42% (Trend).  In each of these contests, the proportion of voters who back the Republican candidates is indistinguishable, and Clinton fails to break fifty percent.
  • Clinton’s support among independent voters against each of these three potential rivals has declined from a previous poll conducted in April.  She is down among independents by 10 points against Bush, nine points against Paul, and six points against Christie.
  • In each of these contests, a gender gap exists.  However, Clinton has lost support among, both, men and women since the previous poll.
  • The national electorate is extremely polarized in each of these presidential matchups.  Clinton is backed by most Democrats and the Republican base is unified against her, regardless of the GOP candidate.

Crowded GOP Field Fails to Yield Front-Runner

  • 23% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents are undecided about who they will support in the 2016 Republican primary.  Jeb Bush and Chris Christie each receives 13% while 10% support Texas Senator Ted Cruz.  Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and Florida Senator Marco Rubio are close behind with 9%.  Texas Governor Rick Perry and Senator Rand Paul are backed by 7%.  Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal trail.
  • Although the sample size is small, there has been a notable shift in the preferences of Tea Party supporters.  15% of these voters now back Cruz, up from 6% in April.  In contrast, Rand Paul’s support among the Tea Party has fallen from 20% in the previous poll to 7% currently.
  • Men are more likely than women to have a candidate preference in the GOP primary.  30% of women are undecided compared with 14% of men.

Marist Poll Methodology

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8/13: McClatchy-Marist Poll

In the 2016 race for the White House, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still ahead of her potential Republican rivals, but her lead has shrunk.  Which voting group is most responsible for the turn of the tide?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

8/12: National Leaders Strike Out with Voters as Mids Approach

Fueled by his lowest approval rating in handling foreign policy and numbers that are barely higher for his handling of the economy, President Obama’s overall approval rating remains upside down with only four in ten registered voters nationally giving him a positive score.  Although his job performance continues to be viewed positively by Democrats and negatively by Republicans, his approval from independent voters has declined from a previous poll conducted in April.  President Obama’s favorability rating, overall, has also declined from that poll, and is now under water.

President Barack Obama


But, Americans could be uttering Casey Stengel’s baseball refrain, “Can’t anybody here play this game?”  Ratings for both the Republicans and Democrats in Congress are even substantially below those of President Obama.  The GOP matches its lowest score, and the Democrats are pretty much stuck at the low approval rating they’ve had for some time.

Although the GOP is now favored over the Democrats in the so-called “generic ballot” test owing to independent voters, this reversal of fortune from the April survey does not automatically convert into a “wave” election for the Republicans.  Fewer than three in ten voters indicate that their impression of President Obama, despite his low numbers, will be a major factor in deciding their vote for Congress this November.

In fact, these poll numbers point to the failings of both political parties to address public concerns.  The proportion of voters who now consider themselves to be independent represents nearly half of the electorate and is at an all-time high.

The bottom line: this gloomy national view all adds up to, by greater than two to one, Americans thinking the country is headed down the wrong track.

“With neither political party having an upper hand with voters, expect a scramble for votes as the mid-term elections approach,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Don’t expect candidates to echo Johnny Mercer’s 1940’s lyrics, ‘Accentuate the positive; eliminate the negative.’”

Complete August 12, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll

Poll Points

  • President Obama is at his lowest point with voters for his handling of foreign policy.  Only 33% of registered voters nationally rate the job President Obama is doing in this area positively.  61% disapprove, giving him his highest negative score to date (Trend).
  • With respect to two of the major hot spots internationally, Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas, less than one-third of the nation’s voters approve of the president’s handling of these crises.  Only 30% believe the president is performing well with regard to the conflict between Israel and Hamas.  Similarly, just 32% score the president well when it comes to his policy with Ukraine.
  • President Obama does not score much more confidence from voters when it comes to the economy.  39% rate the job he is doing positively, and 58% rate him negatively (Trend).
  • Overall, 40% of registered voters approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president.  The president’s support among independent voters has waned since last spring (Trend).
  • President Obama’s favorability rating has declined from 49% in April to 43% currently and is upside down (Trend).
  • Congress fares even less well.  The congressional Republicans are back to their lowest approval rating with 22% (Trend)Democrats remain unpopular and are still at 32% (Trend).

Party Politics

The Republicans edge the Democrats by five points, 43% to 38%, on the national generic ballot for the mid-term congressional elections.  This is a reversal from April when the Democrats topped the GOP, 48% to 42%.  Democrats’ support among independents has eroded since last spring, going from 43% to 26% now.  Interestingly, the GOP has not been the beneficiary of the Democrats’ loss of support from independents.  They have remained at 40% in both polls.  The proportion of independents who are undecided or not backing either party has doubled since April (Trend).

  • When considering their impression of President Obama, voters are more likely to back Republicans, 42%, than to support Democrats, 32%.
  • But, how much do voters’ impressions of President Obama count toward their vote in November?  52% say President Obama is not a factor at all in deciding their vote, including 61% of independents, 49% of Democrats, and even 40% of Republicans.  Another 17% of registered voters view Obama as a minor factor in their decision.  29% of voters see the president as a major factor when making their choice this fall.  42% of Republicans, 28% of Democrats, and 22% of independents share this view.
  • Talk of impeachment is a turnoff for voters.  69% do not think Congress should begin impeachment proceedings against the president.  91% of Democrats, 69% of independents, and even 48% of Republicans have this view.
  • Discussion of impeachment tips the scales in favor of the Democrats.  Voters are more inclined to vote Democratic, 43%, than to back Republicans, 38%, in November.
  • Similarly, suing President Obama is viewed unfavorably by 58% of voters, including 87% of Democrats and 55% of independents.  A majority of Republicans, 57%, want to go forward with this action, and 34% do not.
  • Suing the president also moves the electorate towards voting for the Democrats, 42% to 37%, over the Republicans in November.
  • Party politics in Washington has chased voters from both parties.  45% of voters, a record high, describe themselves as independent and not aligned with either party.

Wrong Course 

64% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, and only 28% describe it as on the right track.  This is the lowest optimism measure since the fall of 2011 and is appreciably lower than it was during the fall of 2010 (Trend).

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8/11: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Do registered voters nationally approve of how President Barack Obama is performing in office?  Will voters’ views of Mr. Obama impact this year’s mid-term elections?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.


8/3: Americans Not Optimistic About Middle East Peace; Polarized Electorate for 2014 Agrees on Do Nothing Congress

Americans are not confident a lasting peace agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians is in the foreseeable future.  Although Republicans are more likely than Democrats to doubt a settlement can be reached, a majority of Americans, regardless of party, are not encouraged.  There is also a greater consensus among Republicans in their support for Israel.  About four in ten Democrats and independents also sympathize with the Israelis over the Palestinians, but the plurality of each of these groups is not sure with which side they have more empathy.

Click Here for Complete August 3, 2014 USA NBC News/The Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release and Tables

When it comes to an assessment of the accomplishments of the current Congress, most Americans agree, regardless of party, that Congress has come up short.  More than seven in ten believe this year’s congressional output has been abysmal.  Nearly half of Americans describe the session as having been very unproductive.  Partisan lines are quickly drawn though when people are asked about their hopes for the results of this fall’s elections.  Democrats and Republicans each hope their respective party will control both the House and Senate.

Poll Points:  Middle East

Poll Points:  Congress

  • 72% of Americans believe Congress has been unproductive this year including 47% who describe their work as very unproductive.  23% characterize it as productive including only 3% who view their accomplishments as very productive.
  • This low opinion of Congress cuts across partisan lines.  77% of independents, 73% of Republicans, and 71% of Democrats give Congress a thumbs down.
  • However, partisanship resurfaces when Americans express their hopes for the outcome of the 2014 elections.  Overall, Americans split, 42% Democrats to 41% Republicans, as to whom they want to emerge with the majority in Congress next term.  85% of Democrats and 92% of Republicans want their respective party to win the majority.  Independents lean Republican 38% to 34%.
  • Americans divide along similar lines when expressing their wishes for the results of the U.S. Senate.  43% want the Democrats to hold the majority and 42% want Republicans to control the Senate.  Again, party differences are stark.  83% of Democrats want their party to hold the Senate, and 94% of Republicans want their party to take over the chamber.  Independents evenly divide, 38% to 38%.
  • In both instances, independents are most undecided about which party they favor.  However, about one in ten Democrats are also unsure about which party they want to see control each chamber. Fewer Republicans are uncertain.

Marist Poll Methodology
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7/17: New Hampshire 2016 Could Be Swing State

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in a close contest against potential GOP rival, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in a 2016 general election matchup in New Hampshire.  Clinton has single-digit leads against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  She has a wider lead over Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.  But, only against Cruz is Clinton supported by more than 50% of New Hampshire voters.  Clinton does better than each of her potential opponents among independent voters.  The gender gap in all of these matchups is wide.

Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll New Hampshire Release and Tables

Clinton is well liked by a majority of New Hampshire residents owing to her strong standing among women.  Vice President Biden has a higher negative rating than positive score among residents in the state.

New Hampshire residents give mixed reviews to Republicans Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker.  The ratings for Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz are all upside down with more residents viewing them negatively than positively.

The morning line for the first-in-the-nation presidential primary has Hillary Clinton the overwhelming choice of Democrats over Joe Biden.  Both Clinton and Biden are popular among most Democrats in the state.

On the Republican side, there is no clear choice among the potential 2016 New Hampshire Primary electorate for their party’s nominee.  More than one in five GOP’ers are undecided, and only Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush have low double-digit support.  Each potential GOP contender is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by Republicans in the state.  Rand Paul is the most popular among GOP voters.

“New Hampshire always gets a lot of attention because of its status as the first-in-the-nation primary and 2016 will be no exception,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “It may be a frequent stopping off point for the general election, as well.”

Poll Points

  • Democrat Hillary Clinton is in a competitive contest against potential GOP rival Rand Paul, 46% to 43%.  She has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio, 47% to 42%, in each instance.  Clinton does better against Scott Walker, 48% to 39%, and Ted Cruz, 51% to 38%.
  • Clinton is boosted by her support among independent voters and is backed by the majority of women in each matchup.
  • Statewide, 53%, of residents have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton including 60% of women.  42% of state residents have an unfavorable opinion of her.  Biden is viewed positively by 39% of New Hampshire residents, but 48% have a negative opinion of him.
  • Residents in the state divide about how they view several of the potential GOP candidates:  Marco Rubio who has a 31% positive rating and a 28% negative score; Rand Paul who receives a favorable rating of 39% and an unfavorable score of 38%; and Scott Walker, with whom voters are least familiar, is liked by 24% of residents and disliked by 23%.
  • Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz all have ratings that are upside down.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Frontrunner

  • Hillary Clinton outpaces Joe Biden 74% to 18% among the potential New Hampshire Democratic Primary electorate for 2016.
  • Most Democrats in the state, 94%, have a positive opinion of Clinton.  Just 4% view her negatively.  Joe Biden is also liked by most New Hampshire Democrats.  79% have a favorable view of him, and 14% have an unfavorable opinion of him.

GOP:  No Pace Horse

  • 22% of the potential New Hampshire Republican Primary electorate are undecided in their preference for a 2016 GOP presidential nominee.  Paul at 14%, Christie at 13%, and Bush at 10% are the only potential candidates who have double-digit support.
  • The contest is no clearer when the potential Republican electorate is asked for a second choice.  Rubio is the backup pick of 16%, Bush garners 13%, Christie and Paul each attract 12%, and Ryan is the second choice of 10%.
  • 71% of state Republicans have a positive opinion of Rand Paul and only 15% have a negative impression of him.  Although each of the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among New Hampshire Republicans, Paul has the highest favorability rating.  A majority of state Republicans like Bush, 65%, Rubio, 58%, and Christie, 52%.  50% have a positive view of Cruz and Walker.

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7/17: Iowa 2016: Rand Paul and Chris Christie Tossup with Hillary Clinton

Looking ahead to 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the odds on favorite against Vice President Joe Biden among Iowa Democrats for her party’s nomination.  But, she would find a general election matchup against either Kentucky Senator Rand Paul or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie very competitive.  Clinton edges former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and has an early lead over Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.  There is a wide gender gap in these matchups.  Although each of the potential Republican candidates has a more positive than negative rating with GOP voters, all but Paul and Rubio are upside down when it comes to Iowa residents’ impressions of the Republican candidates.

Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Iowa Release and Tables

But, first things first, one in five 2016 potential Republican caucus goers are unsure who they support for their presidential nominee, and no single potential candidate has broken out of the pack.  Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan have low double-digit support among potential Republican caucus attendees in the state.

On the Democratic side, seven in ten support Clinton over Biden.  Even though Clinton is more popular, both receive positive scores from most Democrats.  Clinton is viewed favorably by a majority of Iowans.  Not so for Biden whose negatives among state residents exceed his positives, overall.

“In a state Obama carried twice, Hillary Clinton would find Rand Paul and Chris Christie formidable opponents in the battle for Iowa’s six electoral votes,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The contest narrows in these two matchups because Paul and Christie do better with independent voters than do the other Republicans.”

Poll Points

  • Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is closely matched against potential GOP rivals Rand Paul, 45% to 45%, and Chris Christie, 44% to 43%, among Iowa’s registered voters.  Clinton has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, 46% to 42%.
  • In these contests, Clinton and each of the potential Republican contenders, Paul, Christie, and Bush, are competitive among independents.
  • Clinton is ahead of Marco Rubio, 49% to 40%; Ted Cruz, 49% to 37%; and Scott Walker, 50% to 37%.
  • Regardless of the potential GOP opponent against Clinton, there is a wide gender gap.
  • A majority of Iowans, 52%, have a positive impression of Hillary Clinton, and 42% have a negative view of her.  In contrast, more state residents, 48%, have an unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden, and 39% have a favorable one.
  • Rand Paul has a 38% favorable and a 36% unfavorable rating, and Marco Rubio has a 30% favorable and a 28% unfavorable score.  They are the only two Republicans who are not viewed more negatively than positively by Iowans.
  • Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush have higher negative scores than positive.

GOP:  No Leader of the Pack

  • 20% of the potential Republican electorate in Iowa are undecided about their choice for a 2016 GOP nominee.  Bush at 12%, Paul at 12%, and Ryan at 11% are the only potential candidates in double-digits.
  • The contest hardly clarifies when potential Republican caucus goers are asked their second choice.  Bush at 12%, Santorum, Ryan, and Perry each at 11%, and Paul at 10% are the only potential candidates who attract double-digit support as a second choice.
  • All the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among Iowa Republicans.  Rand Paul is liked best by Iowa Republicans.  66% of Republicans have a positive view of him, and only 18% have a negative impression of him.  A majority of state Republicans also have a favorable view of Bush, 63%, and Rubio, 57%.  50% have a positive impression of Christie.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Front-runner

  • Hillary Clinton receives the support of 70% of the potential Democratic electorate compared with 20% for Joe Biden.
  • Most Democrats in the state, 89%, have a favorable impression of Clinton.  Only 6% view her unfavorably.  Joe Biden is also popular among Iowa Democrats.  72% view him positively, and just 18% see him in a negative light.

Marist Poll Methodology
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7/16: New Hampshire Election 2014 Gender Gap Drives Contest for U.S. Senate

Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads potential Republican nominee Scott Brown by eight points in her bid to be re-elected to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire.  Shaheen is popular among a majority of Granite State residents, whereas, Brown is more polarized.  But, it depends who you ask.  There is a wide gender gap that is defining this matchup.  Brown currently has a wide lead over his GOP rivals for the state’s Republican primary in September.  A majority of state residents approve of the job incumbent Governor Maggie Hassan is doing.  Her performance rating is strong among her Democratic base, as well as among women, and independent voters.  President Obama is not popular in the state and neither is the Affordable Care Act.

Click Here for Complete July 16, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll New Hampshire Release and Tables

“At this point, Scott Brown is not facing a high hurdle for the GOP nomination to oppose incumbent Senator Shaheen,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, Shaheen presents a bigger obstacle in his attempt to win this seat for the Republicans in November.”

Poll Points

President Obama Upside Down and Congressional Republicans Even More So

  • A majority of New Hampshire residents, 53%, disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.  39% approve.
  • More than two-thirds of residents, 68%, disapprove of the how the Congressional Republicans are doing in Washington including a plurality of Republican voters, 47%.  Just 19% of adults statewide approve of the job performance of the Congressional GOP.
  • 68% of New Hampshire adults believe the nation is off course.  26% believe the nation is headed in the right direction.  A majority of Democrats, 56%, think the nation is on the right path.  But, 90% of Republicans and 72% of independents describe the nation as on the wrong track.

No to Health Care Plan, Yes to Limits on Greenhouse Gases, Divide on Immigration

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

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