10/6: Clinton Outpaces Democratic Opponents, Bests GOP in General Election Bid

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the early favorite in the 2016 presidential contest.  Clinton leads her potential opponents for the Democratic nomination by more than four-to-one among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents nationally.  Looking at her general election prospects, Clinton receives the support of, at least, a majority of registered voters in hypothetical matchups against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

On the Republican side, a front-runner has not emerged from the list of potential candidates seeking the GOP’s nomination in 2016.  Bush receives 15% among Republicans and Republican leaning independents nationally.  The only other candidates to achieve double-digit support are Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, and Chris Christie.

Complete October 6, 2014 McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Right now, the 2016 election is all about Hillary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Without a strong Democratic opponent for the nomination and a fragmented GOP field, she’s the early front-runner.”

Poll points:

  • Clinton, 64%, outpaces Biden, 15%, among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents in the race for the 2016 Democratic nomination.  Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has 8%, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 4%, and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley receives 2%.  Former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia garners 1%.
  • Clinton leads Jeb Bush, 53% to 42%, among registered voters nationally.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in August, Clinton was ahead of Bush, 48% to 41% (Trend).
  • Against Rand Paul, Clinton has the support of 52% of registered voters to 43% for Paul.  Previously, Clinton was ahead of Paul, 48% to 42% (Trend).
  • 51% of registered voters support Clinton while 42% are for Chris Christie.  In mid-August, Clinton received 47% to 41% for Christie (Trend).
  • There continues to be no clear front-runner in the race for the 2016 Republican nomination. Bush has 15% to 13% each for Paul and Ryan.  Christie garners 12% while Texas Governor Rick Perry has 7%.  Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, 6%, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, 4%, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, 4%, follow.  Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, 3%, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 3%, round out the list.  21% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents nationally are undecided.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/5: North Carolina: Hagan Edges Tillis in Competitive U.S. Senate Race

In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan is trying to fend off her Republican challenger and state legislator Thom Tillis in the race for U.S. Senate.  Among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early or by absentee ballot, Hagan receives 44% to 40% for Tillis.

There is a wide gender gap in the contest.  Hagan carries women by 19 points and Tillis outpaces her among men by 13 points.

Hagan’s supporters are more firmly committed to her, 59%, than are Tillis’ backers, 45%, the majority of whom are motivated to vote against Hagan rather than being positive about him.  Also of note, both candidates have high negative ratings among likely voters statewide.

North Carolina residents have a grim view of national politics.  Nearly half are displeased with the performance of President Barack Obama.  Congressional Republicans and Democrats are also viewed negatively by, at least, a majority of residents statewide.  Close to seven in ten North Carolina adults have a dismal view of the direction the nation is heading.

Complete October 5, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina

“Gender and marital status are driving forces in this contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Not only are there big differences between men and women in their choice for the Senate, but Hagan has nearly a three-to-one advantage over Tillis among single women, and Tillis outdistances her by 23 points among married men.”

Poll points:

  • Hagan, 44%, and Tillis, 40%, are locked in a tight contest for U.S. Senate in North Carolina among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early or by absentee ballot.  Libertarian Sean Haugh receives 7% of the vote, and 9% are undecided.
  • A partisan divide exists among likely voters with 85% of Democrats supporting Hagan and 81% of Republicans backing Tillis.  Independents likely to vote divide with 40% for Tillis and 36% for Hagan.  Haugh garners 12% of independents who are likely to vote, and 12% are undecided.
  • The gender gap is wide.  49% of men likely to vote support Tillis compared with 36% for Hagan.  Among women, Hagan has 51% to 32% for Tillis.
  • 50% of likely voters with a candidate preference in North Carolina strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.  38% somewhat back their selection, and 10% might vote differently.  Looking at each candidate’s intensity of support, nearly six in ten Hagan backers, 59%, are firmly committed to her.  45% of Tillis supporters report a similar level of commitment.
  • 50% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they support their pick for U.S. Senate because they are against the other candidates in the race while 45% made their selection because they feel positively about their choice.  While 57% of Hagan’s voters are inspired by their support for her, 58% of Tillis backers are motivated by their dislike for his opponents.
  • Among registered voters in North Carolina including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot, 42% support Hagan to 37% for Tillis and 8% for Haugh.  12% are undecided.
  • The campaign has taken its toll on voters’ impressions of both Hagan and Tillis.  48% of likely voters have a negative view of Hagan, while 42% have a favorable one.  Tillis’ negative score is comparable to Hagan’s rating.  47% have an unfavorable view of Tillis while 36% have a positive one.

Obama Approval Rating at 39%… Thumbs Down for Democrats and GOP in Congress

North Carolina residents have a grim view of how elected officials in Washington are performing their jobs.  Less than four in ten think President Obama is handling his jobwell, and, at least, a majority of adults statewide believe the Republicansand Democratsin Congress are falling short.  Nearly seven in ten also report the nation is on the wrong track.

On the state level, a plurality of North Carolina adults views Governor Pat McCrory’s job performance positively.

Poll points:

Nearly Half Down on Health Care Law

The Affordable Care Act is not being embraced by close to half of adults in North Carolina.  In fact, 42% strongly believe Obamacare is a bad idea.

Poll points:

  • 48% of adults statewide think the new health care law is a bad idea.  Included here are 42% who strongly have this opinion.  31% say the health care law is a good idea including 24% who strongly maintain this position.  20% have no opinion or are unsure.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

10/5: Iowa: Ernst and Braley Neck and Neck in Contest for U.S. Senate… Branstad with Wide Lead in Governor’s Race

Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley are closely matched in the race for U.S. Senate in Iowa among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early or by absentee ballot.  Intensity of support is one of the key dynamics in the race.  Ernst’s voters are more strongly committed to their candidate than are Braley’s backers.  Ernst’s supporters also describe their vote as an affirmation of her candidacy.  In contrast, Braley’s voters are more motivated by their opposition to Ernst than positive impressions of Braley.  Braley has a wide lead among the small proportion of Iowans who have already voted.

It’s a different story when it comes to the governor’s race in Iowa.  Republican incumbent Terry Branstad leads his Democratic opponent, State Senator Jack Hatch, by 22 points among Iowa likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early or by absentee ballot.  With solid job approval and favorable ratings, Branstad is held in high-esteem by many Iowans.

Complete October 5, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Iowa

“National attention is focused on the Hawkeye State because it may determine party control in the U.S. Senate, and the contest is very competitive,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The choice for voters centers more on their impressions of Ernst than Braley.  Most of Ernst’s supporters are inspired to rally for her, and many of Braley’s backers are motivated to vote against Ernst.”

Poll points:

  • Ernst, 46%, and Braley, 44%, are in a close contest in the race for U.S. Senate in Iowa among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot.
  • Although the sample of early voters is small, Braley leads Ernst, 61% to 38%.
  • Both candidates receive overwhelming support from their base, Braley has 91% among Democrats, and Ernst receives 88% from Republicans.  A plurality of independents likely to vote, 46%, supports Ernst compared with 38% for Braley.  15% of likely voters who identify as independents, the plurality of voters in the state, are undecided.
  • The gender gap is wide, but political party trumps gender.  Ernst holds an 18 point lead over Braley among men, 53% to 35%.  Braley leads Ernst by 11 points, 52% to 41%, among women.  Ernst is strongest among married men with a lead of 28 points over her opponent.  Braley leads by 26 points among single women.
  • Nearly six in ten likely voters with a candidate preference, 57%, strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.  35% are somewhat committed to their pick, and 7% might vote differently.  62% of Ernst’s supporters are strongly committed to her compared with 51% of Braley’s backers who express a similar level of support.
  • 50% of Iowa likely voters with a candidate preference for Senate report they are supporting their choice of candidate because they are for that candidate.  45% say they back their selection because they are against the other person in the race.  More than six in ten Ernst backers, 61%, say they are voting for her because they believe in her.  However, 57% of Braley’s supporters plan to vote for him because they are against Ernst.
  • Among registered voters in Iowa including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot, 45% support Braley while 44% are for Ernst.  Little has changed on this question since NBC News/Marist’s July survey when 43% supported Braley, and 43% were for Ernst.
  • 44% of Iowa likely voters have a favorable impression of Ernst, and 44% have an unfavorable one.  Among Iowa adults, Ernst’s favorable rating is upside down.  38% have a positive view of her while 43% have a negative one.  Ernst has become more well-known to Iowans but not for the better.  While there has been little movement in Ernst’s favorable rating among Iowans since July, 36% to 38%, her negative rating has gone up 11 points from 32% in July to 43% now.
  • Looking at Braley’s favorable rating, 39% of likely voters in Iowa think well of him while a plurality, 44%, has a negative view of the candidate.  Among Iowans overall, Braley, too, has made inroads with residents but not necessarily positive ones.  Since July, the proportion of Iowans with a favorable impression of him has gone from 33% to 36% while those with a negative view have increased from 31% to 40%.
  • In the governor’s race in Iowa, Branstad, 58%, leads Hatch, 36%, by 22 points among Iowa likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot.
  • Most Republicans, 96%, support Branstad.  While most Democrats, 82%, are for Hatch, 13% say they will vote for the Republican incumbent.  62% of independent likely voters back Branstad compared with 30% for Hatch.
  • The small group of early voters divide between the candidates for governor, 51% for Branstad and 49% for Hatch.
  • Close to six in ten likely voters with a candidate preference, 58%, strongly support their choice of candidate for governor in Iowa.  35% somewhat back their pick, and 6% might vote differently.  Brandstad’s supporters, 63%, are more likely than Hatch’s backers, 52%, to say they are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.
  • 60% of likely voters in Iowa have a favorable impression of Branstad, and 33% have an unfavorable one.   Among Iowans, 57% think well of Branstad, up from 51% in July.
  • Hatch is still unknown to 30% of likely voters in Iowa.  34% of voters likely to cast a ballot have a favorable impression of Hatch, and 36% have an unfavorable one.  Among Iowa residents, Hatch has become better known, but his negative rating has increased.  In July, Hatch’s favorable rating was 27% among Iowans, and now, 30% have a positive view of him.  23% of state residents had a negative view of him last summer, and now, 33% do.
  • 63% of residents approve of the job Branstad is doing in office, up from 58% in July.

Low Marks for President Obama and Congress

Although slightly improved, Iowans are dissatisfied with how President Obama is doing in office.  They are also displeased with the performances of congressional Democrats and Republicans.  About two-thirds are pessimistic about the direction of the country.

Poll points:

Obamacare Lacks Support in Iowa

More Iowa residents think the Affordable Care Act is bad idea than a good one.

Poll points:

  • 46% of adults in Iowa, including 39% of those who strongly have this opinion, say the new health care law is a bad idea.  31% think it is a good idea including 23% who strongly maintain this view.  22% of Iowans have no opinion or are unsure.  In July, 49% reported Obamacare was a bad idea, 31% said it was a good one, and 19% had no opinion of the law or were unsure.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/5: Kansas: Orman Leads Roberts in Senate Race… Brownback Fighting for Political Life

In the race for U.S. Senate in Kansas, independent candidate and businessman Greg Orman leads Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 10 points among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Orman’s lead is bolstered by better than a two-to-one lead among independents likely to vote.

Voters’ impressions of incumbent Republican Roberts is upside down with nearly half of likely voters viewing him negatively.  In contrast, Orman is more positively viewed by likely voters and has lower negatives.

Turning to the contest for governor in Kansas, the Republican incumbent, Sam Brownback, faces a tough challenge from Democratic state legislator Paul Davis.  Davis, 44%, and Brownback, 43%, are neck and neck among Kansas likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.

Both of these campaigns are taking place against a backdrop of dissatisfaction with elected officials in Washington.  Many Kansans are displeased with how the Republicans and Democrats are performing in office.  A majority also expresses frustration with President Barack Obama. 

Complete October 5, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Kansas

“Kansas voters are facing an unusual and unexpected matchup in what has become a pivotal race for control of the U.S. Senate,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Fewer than half of likely voters are firmly committed to their choice, and nearly one in ten is still undecided.” 

Poll points:

  • Among Kansas likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 48% support Orman while 38% are for Roberts in the race for U.S. Senate in Kansas.  Libertarian candidate Randall Batson receives 5%, and 9% are undecided.
  • Orman, 57%, leads Roberts, 27%, by 30 points among independents likely to vote.  Independent Orman receives 16% of likely Republican voters while Republican Roberts garners only 8% of Democrats.
  • Only 43% of likely voters statewide with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice.  40% are somewhat committed to their pick, and 14% might vote differently.  Among likely voters who back Orman, 48% are firmly in his corner.  40% of Roberts’ supporters are strongly committed to him.  While a plurality of likely voters with a candidate preference, 44%, say they are backing their candidate because they are for him, 49% are doing so because they are against his opponents.  53% of Roberts’ voters support him because they are for him while a majority of Orman’s backers, 55%, says they support Orman because they are against his opponents.
  • Among Kansas registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Orman has 46% to 36% for Roberts and 5% for Batson.
  • Roberts’ has high negatives.  37% of Kansas likely voters have a positive impression of him while 47% have a negative one.  Looking at likely voters’ opinions of Orman, 46% like him while 26% do not.
  • In the governor’s race in Kansas, Davis receives 44% to 43% for Brownback among Kansas likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Libertarian Keen Umbehr has 4%.
  • While 78% of Republicans likely to vote support Brownback, and 85% of Democratic likely voters are for Davis, 49% of independents likely to vote back Davis compared with 34% for Brownback.
  • Looking at intensity of support in the governor’s contest, 55% of Kansas likely voters with a candidate preference are strongly committed to their selection, and 31% are somewhat behind their choice.  12% might vote differently.  Among Davis’ supporters, 59% strongly back him.  This compares with 55% of those who are for Brownback who express a similar level of commitment.
  • 52% of likely voters with a candidate preference for governor say they are supporting their candidate because they are for him.  This compares with 43% who report they plan to vote for their selection because they are against the other candidates in the race. 72% of Brownback’s supporters are for him while 60% of Davis’ backers say they are voting for him because they oppose the others.
  • Among Kansas registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 43% are for Davis, and 41% are for Brownback.  Five percent of registered voters support Umbehr.
  • 50% of likely voters statewide have an unfavorable opinion of Brownback while 41% have a positive one.  Only 30% of likely voters have a negative view of Davis, and 43% have a positive one.  A notable 27% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • Brownback’s approval rating is also lopsided.  38% of Kansas residents approve of the job Brownback is doing as governor, and 49% disapprove.

High Level of Dissatisfaction with Elected Officials in Washington

At least a majority of Kansas residents are unhappy with the job President Obama and the Republicans and Democrats in Congress are doing.  Nearly seven in ten residents think the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Poll points:

Half Have Negative View of Obamacare

When it comes to residents’ views of Obamacare, more Kansans think it is a bad idea than a good one. 

Poll points:

  • 50% of Kansas residents consider Obamacare a bad idea.  This includes 43% who strongly have this opinion.  In contrast, 31% of adults statewide, including 21% who strongly have this view, believe the new health care law is a good idea.  20% have no opinion on the subject or are unsure.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/3: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Is Hillary Clinton still the front-runner in the 2016 presidential contest?  Has a Republican emerged from the pack of potential GOP candidates to pose a formidable challenge?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

10/3: Voters Remain Dissatisfied with Congress, Uneasy About Their Finances and the Country’s Direction

Candidates running for Congress this year do so amid Americans’ sustained dissatisfaction with elected officials in Washington, concern their financial picture is not improving, and pessimism about the course the country is taking.

Approval ratings for both the Republicans and Democrats in Congress remain  low.  The president’s overall job approval rating, although somewhat improved from August, remains upside down as does voters’ assessments of his handling of the economy.  But, a majority of voters say their impression of President Obama will not be a factor in deciding their vote for Congress in November.

Americans, generally, expect their family’s finances to remain about the same in the coming year.  However, there has been a decline in the proportion of those who think their financial picture will improve, and an increase in those who think it will get worse.  About six in ten Americans still think the country is off course which has barely improved since August.

Registered voters divide over whether a Democrat or a Republican would better serve their district in Congress.  Yet, a plurality of voters believes the Republicans would do a better job handling the threat of terrorism.

Complete October 3, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll

“The mid-term elections are occurring at a time when voters have few good words to say about political leadership in Washington,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Americans are anxious about their own finances and lack confidence in the direction of the nation.”

Poll points:

Looking to the Future

  • While a majority of adults nationally, 54%, think their family’s finances in the coming year will stay about the same, 30% think their financial picture will improve, and 17% believe it will get worse.  Americans are slightly more pessimistic about the future of their family’s finances.  In February, 54% thought their money matters would be status quo.  35% said they would get better, and 11% reported they would decline (Trend).
  • Overall, 61% of U.S. adults think the country is moving in the wrong direction, similar to the 64% reported two months ago.  There has been a slight increase in the proportion of Americans who say the nation is moving in the right direction.  35% currently have this view compared with 28% in August (Trend).
  • Registered voters divide about whether they believe a Democrat, 45%, or Republican, 44%, would better serve their district.
  • On the issue of terrorism, a plurality of voters, 46%, thinks the Republicans would do a better job handling the threat of terrorism.  37% believe the Democrats would better deal with such a crisis, and 6% say neither party would deal with it well.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/2: Most Americans Approve of Air Strikes in Syria… Obama Approval Up Overall and in Foreign Policy

76% of Americans approve of U.S. air strikes in Syria against ISIS.  But, if those air strikes fail, Americans divide about whether or not to put U.S. boots on the ground.  Although Republicans are more likely to support military action, including air strikes and sending ground troops to the region, Democrats are more likely to trust the president to work well with allies, avoid a terror attack in the United States, make the right decisions, act quickly, and develop a sound strategy.  Republicans are more inclined to describe ISIS as a major threat to the U.S.  Majorities of Democrats and independents, though, share this view.

President Barack Obama

whitehouse.gov

46% of registered voters nationally approve of the job President Obama is doing in office, up from 40% who held this view in August.  Voters’ impressions of his handling of foreign policy have also improved from 33% in August to 46% now.

Overall, a majority of voters rate the president positively on his handling of the threat of terrorism.  They are divided about his handling of ISIS and Ukraine.

Concern among Americans about a terror attack in the U.S. is at its highest.  But, so is confidence in the government’s ability to prepare and protect communities throughout the nation.  By nearly two to one, Americans believe the country is safer now than it was before the attacks on September 11th, 2001.

Complete October 2, 2014 McClatchy-Marist Poll

“President Obama’s standing among voters has improved, especially in foreign policy,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, he is walking a fine line between Republicans who support air strikes and want more military action and Democrats who support the president but are fearful of an escalation of U.S. involvement in the region.”

Poll points:

Obama’s Performance Rating Improves

Concern About Terror Attack at Highest Point But So is Confidence in Preparedness

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

 

10/1: McClatchy-Marist Poll

In the fight against ISIS, do Americans approve of the use of air strikes in Syria?  Do they support putting U.S. boots on the ground if those air strikes fail, and do registered voters approve of how President Barack Obama is handling ISIS and how he is performing overall?

The White HouseFind out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

9/18: Bowser Front-Runner in DC Mayor’s Race

In the race for mayor of the District of Columbia, Democrat Muriel Bowser leads her opponents by double-digits among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Bowser receives 43% to 26% for independent David Catania and 16% for independent Carol Schwartz.  14% are undecided.  Bowser’s support is bolstered by Democrats who said they supported Mayor Vincent Gray in the Democratic primary.  Nearly half of likely voters who backed Gray, 47%, now support Bowser.

Among registered voters in Washington, DC including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Bowser enjoys a similar lead.  Here, she has the support of 43% to 24% for Catania and 17% for Schwartz.  15% are undecided.

When looking at the candidate with the most desirable attributes and abilities, Bowser still outperforms her opposition in most areas.  However, Bowser does not receive the same level of support that she does in the overall tossup.

Complete September 18, 2014 NBC4/Washington Post/Marist Poll

“Bowser has the advantage going into Thursday night’s debate,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, when considering voters who are undecided and those who say they may still vote differently, there are enough persuadable voters to make for a lively give-and-take.”

Poll points:

  • In the mayoralty contest in the District of Columbia, 43% of likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate support Muriel Bowser.  26% back David Catania, and 16% favor Carol Schwartz.  14% are undecided.
  • Bowser maintains the support of many Democrats who voted for her in the Democratic primary, 64%.  She also has the backing of 47% of Democrats who voted for Vincent Gray in the primary.  However, Catania has the advantage, 52%, among those who supported Tommy Wells who came in a distant third in April’s primary.
  • A majority of likely voters who are African American, 55%, favor Bowser.  While Catania leads Bowser by 11 points among white voters, Bowser garners 30% of these voters.
  • Bowser is the choice of 52% of likely voters who mention jobs and the economy as the key issue in the contest for mayor compared with 19% for Catania and 16% for Schwartz.  Bowser also has the support of 40% of those who cite education as the deciding factor.  This compares with 30% for Catania and 14% for Schwartz.
  • Among likely voters in the District who have a candidate preference, 49% strongly support their choice of candidate for mayor.  34% somewhat support their pick, and 16% might vote differently.  Bowser and Catania enjoy a similar level of support from their backers.  51% of those behind Catania and 50% of likely voters backing Bowser are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.
  • When it comes to the second choice of likely voters with a candidate preference, 30% select Schwartz while 28% are for Catania.  Bowser is the second choice of 21%, and 16% are undecided.  When looking at each candidate’s backers, support divides between the remaining two candidates.
  • Each of the candidates is viewed favorably by the likely DC electorate.  Half of likely voters, 50%, have a favorable view of Bowser compared with 22% who have an unfavorable impression of her.  28% don’t know enough about her to form an opinion.
  • 50% of likely voters have a positive impression of Schwartz.  15% have an unfavorable one, and 36% don’t know enough to say.
  • A plurality of likely voters, 46%, thinks favorably of Catania while 19% have a negative impression of the candidate.  35% do not know enough about him to weigh in.
  • About one in three likely voters, 34%, is very enthusiastic to cast their ballot for mayor.  An additional 40% are moderately enthusiastic to vote while 19% are not too enthusiastic.  Seven percent are not enthusiastic at all to go to the polls.
  • Two-thirds of Democratic likely voters in the District, 67%, would consider voting for a candidate who is not a Democrat.  This includes 38% who would very seriously consider doing so.  31% of Democrats would not entertain the idea of voting for a candidate who is not a Democrat.  Included here are 16% who would absolutely not consider voting for someone in another party.
  • 64% of likely voters in the District do not think it is important to have an African American mayor.  Among these voters, nearly four in ten, 38%, say it is not important at all.  More than three in ten, including 13% who report it is essential, thinks it is important to have a mayor who is African American.

Economic Concerns and Education Key Factors to Vote

27% of likely voters report that jobs and the economy is the issue which matters most in deciding their vote.  The same proportion, 27%, mentions education followed by housing with 14%, ethics with 14%, and crime with 9%.  Seven percent of voters cites another issue as the determining factor, and 2% are unsure.

Bowser Tops Competition on Most Image Questions, But…

Bowser is perceived by four in ten likely voters, 40%, to be the candidate with the best temperament to be mayor.  She is also thought to be the candidate who would be the most effective leader and who would do the most to improve the public school system.  However, Bowser and Catania vie for who has the clearest vision for the District and who has the best experience to serve effectively.

Poll points:

Crowded Field in Contest for DC Attorney General

With close to six in ten likely voters in the District undecided, none of the candidates for attorney general has emerged as the favorite.  Among likely voters in the District including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 14% support Paul Zukerberg.  Seven percent are for Lateefah Williams, 7% back Lorie Masters, 5% support Edward “Smitty” Smith, and 5% back Karl Racine.  Four percent support another candidate, and 57% are undecided.

Nearly Two in Three Voters Support Legalization of Marijuana

65% of likely voters in the District including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a position say they will vote “yes” for Initiative 71 which would legalize small amounts of marijuana for recreational use for adults 21 years of age or older.  One-third, 33%, reports they will vote against the initiative.  Only 2% are undecided.

DC Police Chief Receives High Marks… Majority Approves of Chancellor’s Handling of Schools 

71% of residents in the District approve of how Cathy Lanier is doing her job as police chief.  14% disapprove, and 15% are unsure.

Looking at Kaya Henderson’s performance as Chancellor of DC’s public schools, a majority of adults, 52%, approves of how she is doing her job.  22% disapprove, and 26% are unsure.  A majority of residents, 55%, supports changes to neighborhood school boundaries.  23% oppose this proposal, and 22% are unsure.

More than Two-Thirds View District on Right Course

67% of adults say the District is moving in the right direction.  24% think it is on the wrong track, and 8% are unsure.  When this question was last reported in March, 65% of residents thought the District was on the right path.  21% reported it was on the wrong road, and 14%, at the time, were unsure.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

 

9/7: Colorado: Udall Ahead of Gardner in U.S. Senate Race… Hickenlooper Edges Beauprez for Governor

In the contest for U.S. Senate in Colorado, Democratic incumbent Mark Udall leads his Republican challenger, Cory Gardner, by six points among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Udall’s advantage is due to his support among Latinos, independents, women, and young voters.

Turning to Colorado’s contest for governor, Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper, 43%, is in a competitive race against Republican Bob Beauprez, 39%, among Colorado likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  The race is wider among registered voters in the state including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  43% support Hickenlooper, and 36% are for Beauprez.  In July, Hickenlooper had a six point lead over Beauprez among these registered voters.

While Hickenlooper’s job performance is viewed positively by 50% of Colorado residents, his rating has inched down from 54% in an NBC News/Marist Poll in July.

Complete September 7, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Colorado 

“Right now, Udall is disrupting GOP plans to add Colorado to its victory column as they seek a Senate majority,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “To seal the deal, Udall needs to mobilize young voters and Latinos who boosted Barack Obama in his presidential wins.”

Poll points: 

  • A plurality of Colorado likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 48%, supports Udall in the race for U.S. Senate in Colorado.  Gardner garners 42%.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • Udall is bolstered by Latinos likely to participate.  He receives 60% compared with 27% for Gardner.
  • 91% of Democrats likely to vote are for Udall while 87% of Republicans favor Gardner.  Among likely independent voters, Udall has 49% to 34% for Gardner.
  • Udall is strongest among single women where he outpaces Gardner by 29 points, 56% to 27%.  Udall has a 16 point lead among single men. Udall and Gardner are competitive among married women, 46% to 45%.  Gardner has a strong lead against Udall among married men, 55% to 36%.
  • Looking at intensity of support in the race for U.S. Senate in Colorado, about six in ten likely voters with a candidate preference, 58%, report they strongly support their candidate.  An additional 32% are somewhat committed to their pick, and only 9% report they might vote differently.
  • Majorities of each candidate’s backers express a high level of support for their selection.  60% of Udall’s backers and 56% of Gardner’s supporters report they are strongly committed to their candidate.
  • Among registered voters in Colorado, Udall, 48%, is ahead of Gardner, 40%.  In July, Udall received 48% of registered voters’ support to 41% for Gardner.
  • Likely voters in Colorado divide over their impressions of Udall.  45% have a positive view of him, and 42% have a negative one.  Among Colorado adults, 41% think well of Udall compared with 38% who have a lesser impression of him.  In July, 41% of residents had a favorable impression of him while 35% had an unfavorable one.
  • Gardner’s favorable rating is upside down.  38% of likely voters give him a positive score, and 40% give him a negative one.  Among Colorado adults, 31% have a favorable view of the candidate while 38% have an unfavorable one.  Gardner’s negatives have gone up since July when 31% of Coloradans had an unfavorable impression of him.  The same proportion, 31%, had a favorable view of him at that time.
  • In the race for Colorado governor, 43% of likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate support Hickenlooper compared with 39% for Beauprez.  Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess has 5%, and Green Party candidate Harry Hempy receives 4%.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • Independent voters make the difference.  43% back Hickenlooper while 27% support Beauprez.  One in ten is for Libertarian Matthew Hess.
  • A majority of likely voters with a candidate preference, 53%, strongly supports their choice of candidate for governor, and 34% somewhat backs him.  12% might vote differently.  62% of Hickenlooper’s backers strongly support him compared with 50% of Beauprez’s supporters who share a similar level of intensity toward their candidate.
  • Among registered voters, Hickenlooper has a seven point lead over Beauprez, 43% to 36%.  In July, Hickenlooper had 49% to 43% for Beauprez.
  • When it comes to the gubernatorial candidates’ favorability ratings, half of likely voters, 50%, have a positive view of Hickenlooper, and 41% have a negative one.  Among Coloradans, 47% have a favorable impression of Hickenlooper, and 36% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  The governor received a similar rating among adults statewide in July.
  • Looking at Beauprez’s favorability, 41% of likely voters have a positive view of him, and 31% do not.  Of note, 6% have never heard of the candidate, and 22% are unsure how to rate him.  Among Colorado residents, 33% think well of Beauprez.  29% have a lesser opinion of him.  14% have never heard of him, and 25% are unsure how to rate him.  In July’s survey, 33% of adults statewide had a positive opinion of Beauprez.  27% had a negative opinion of him, and 12% had never heard of Beauprez.  28% were unsure.
  • 50% of Colorado residents, down slightly from 54% in July, approve of the job Governor Hickenlooper is doing in office.

Half Disapprove of Obama’s Job Performance… Congressional GOP and Dem’s Even Less Popular 

  • 50% of Coloradans disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  39% approve.  This is little changed from July when 49% of residents gave the president low marks, and 40% approved of his job performance.
  • About two-thirds of Colorado residents, 66%, disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing.  One in five, 20%, approves.  In July, 64% gave the GOP a thumbs-down.  Even a majority of the state’s GOP, 52%, thinks the Republicans in Congress are falling short.
  • Opinions of the Democrats in Congress aren’t much better.  59% of Coloradans view their performance as subpar compared with 28% who approve of how they are doing in office.
  • Looking at the overall direction of the nation, more than six in ten Coloradans, 62%, think it is moving in the wrong direction.  32% report the country is travelling in the right one.  This is similar to that previous survey in July when 63% thought the country was off course, and 29% believed it was on track.

Checks and Balances or Cooperation? 

  • As a result of this November’s election, 41% of voters in Colorado want the Republicans to control both houses of Congress to serve as a check on the president’s power.
  • A similar proportion, 39%, wants more Democrats elected to send a message to Republicans that they need to cooperate with the president.
  • 16% say party control does not matter as long as the incumbent is ousted.

On the Issues 

  • 59% of Colorado registered voters would be less likely to support a candidate who favors restrictions on contraceptives.  Only 14% would be more likely to cast their ballot for a candidate with this position on the issue.  23% say it would make no difference to their vote.
  • A plurality of registered voters, 44%, says they would be less likely to support a candidate who voted for the Affordable Care Act.  However, 35% would be more likely to back such a candidate.
  • When it comes to residents’ views of the health care law, a plurality of adults, 46%, thinks it is a bad idea including 41% who strongly have this opinion.  37% believe it is a good idea.  Included here are 26% who strongly have this opinion.  Attitudes have shifted slightly.  In July, a slim majority of residents, 51%, said the Affordable Care Act was a bad idea.
  • A majority of Colorado residents, 55%, is for Colorado’s new marijuana law which allows the legalization of small amounts of the drug purchased from regulated businesses.  Among these Coloradans, 27% actively support the law, and 28% favor the legislation but do not actively do so.  In contrast, 41% oppose the law.  This includes 8% who are actively trying to overturn the legislation.

Majority with Favorable Opinion of Clinton… Romney’s Image Upside Down 

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

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