12/17: GOP in the Driver’s Seat, but Voters Not Convinced It’s for the Better

Many registered voters nationally think the GOP will have more influence in directing the nation in 2015 than President Barack Obama.  However, only 35% think this will bring about change for the better.

Congressional Republicans take control of the legislature amid continued dissatisfaction with elected officials in Washington and pessimism about the overall direction of the country.  In fact, the job approval rating of the Democrats in Congress is at its lowest point, 27%, and the approval rating of congressional Republicans stands at 28%.  President Obama doesn’t fare much better.  His approval rating is at 43% among registered voters, and his favorable rating is upside down.  On the specifics of Mr. Obama’s job performance, fewer voters think well of how he is handling foreign policy than previously, and he receives a lukewarm rating on his approach to the economy.

More than six in ten voters say the new Republican-controlled Congress should amend, if not repeal, the 2010 health care law. About one-third think the GOP should focus on other items on the national agenda.

Americans are not overly optimistic about the future of their family’s finances.

“The balance in power has changed in Washington,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, voters need to see results to reverse their sense of dysfunction in government.”

Complete December 17, 2014 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Poll points:

  • Regardless of party, more than six in ten voters, 61%, think the Republicans in Congress will have more influence over the direction of the nation in 2015.  29% believe President Obama will be the driving force, and 2% report neither will be in command.
  • When it comes to who voters want to have more influence, 48% prefer the GOP to take the lead while 42% want Obama in charge.  Looking at party, while 93% of Republicans want the GOP to have the most impact,  82% of Democrats look to President Obama to take the lead.  47% of independents turn to the GOP for leadership, and 40% put their stock in President Obama.
  • While 35% of voters think the Republican-controlled Congress will effect change for the better, a plurality, 40%, doesn’t expect to see any impact at all.  One in five, 20%, reports GOP control will be change for the worse.
  • Seven in ten voters, 70%, think it is better for government officials to compromise to find solutions than stand on principle.  Democrats, 82%, are more likely than Republicans, 59%, to choose to compromise.  More than one-third of Republicans, 36%, value principle over compromise compared with 15% of Democrats who have this view.
  • Close to two-thirds of Americans, 64%, are pessimistic about the direction of the country.  31% say the nation is on track, and 6% are unsure.  Earlier this fall, 61% of residents said the country was going in the wrong direction, and 35% reported it was moving in the right one (Trend).
  • The job approval rating of congressional Democrats is at its lowest point, 27%, since McClatchy-Marist began reporting this question. The previous low for Democrats was 28% and occurred in November of 2011 (Trend).  In October, 33% of voters approved of how the Democrats were doing their job.
  • The job approval rating of the Republicans in Congress, 28%, also falls short in voters’ eyes.  In October, 24% of registered voters approved of how the congressional GOP was doing its job (Trend).
  • 43% of registered voters nationally approve of the job President Obama is doing in office while 52% disapprove.  Obama’s approval rating stood at 46% in October (Trend)Mr. Obama’s favorable rating is also upside down.  44% have a favorable impression of him while a majority, 54%, does not.  Voters divided on the president’s image, 48% to 49%, respectively, earlier this fall (Trend).
  • 38% of the national electorate, down from 46% in October, approve of how the president is handling foreign policy.  52% disapprove, and 10% are unsure (Trend).
  • On his handling of the economy, 41% of voters approve of how the president is tackling the issue.  This is unchanged from 41% in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.  55% currently disapprove of how President Obama is dealing with the economy (Trend).
  • More than six in ten registered voters nationally, 61%, want the Republicans in Congress to make changes to the 2010 health care law.  This includes 23% who want the law repealed and 38% who favor modifications to the legislation.  34%, though, say the GOP should focus their efforts on other issues.  While 53% of Democrats want the GOP to focus on other issues, and 48% of Republicans want to eliminate the law, 38% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans want changes to be made to the law.  A plurality of independents, 43%, would like the health care law modified.
  • 51% of Americans expect their personal family finances to stay about the same in the coming year.  32% think they will see an improvement, and 17% believe their family’s financial situation will get worse.  In October, 54% reported their money matters would be status quo, 30% thought they would get better, and 17% believed they would get worse (Trend).

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

12/16: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Do voters nationally expect the Republican-controlled Congress to have a positive impact on the country?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

12/16: Standard-Bearers Party Favorites for 2016

Two familiar Republican faces, former presidential nominee Mitt Romney and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, lead the crowded field of potential candidates for the GOP nomination in 2016.  Looking at what Republicans and Republican leaning independents want in a nominee, close to two thirds prefer a candidate who stands on conservative principles rather than a nominee who can win.  However, there has been a slight shift in opinion toward selecting a nominee with a viable chance of winning the White House.

On the Democratic side, there has been a major change in what the Democrats want in their presidential nominee.  Close to six in ten Democrats and Democratic leaning independents prefer a candidate who will move the nation in a new direction and not someone who will continue the policies of President Barack Obama.  One year ago, Democrats divided between charting a new course and continuing the current Democratic agenda.

What does this mean for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?  If she were to seek the Presidency, Clinton is the odds-on favorite to win her party’s nomination.  In several hypothetical matchups, Clinton also leads her potential Republican opponents by double digits.

But, could a third party candidate be a spoiler?  Looking at a generic ballot which includes an independent choice, neither a Democrat nor a Republican has the edge.  Close to one in five says they would support an independent candidate.

“Open seats often are a political free-for-all, and this one could very well end up that way,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, right now, Clinton is in the driver’s seat both for her party’s nomination and the general election.”

Complete December 16, 2014 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Poll points:

  • If he decided to run in the 2016 Republican primary, former GOP nominee Mitt Romney would be the choice of 19% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents to represent his party.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush receives 14% of the vote.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee each has the support of 9% while retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson garners 8%.  Five percent are for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.  Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Texas Governor Rick Perry each garners 4% while Representative Paul Ryan from Wisconsin, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker each receives 3%.  Ohio Governor John Kasich has the support of 2% while Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and former business executive Carly Fiorina each has the backing of 1%.  More than one in ten, 13%, is undecided.
  • Without Romney in the primary, Bush takes over the lead with 16% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents followed by Huckabee with 12% and Christie with 10%.  Carson receives 8%, Ryan garners 7%, and Paul has 6%.  Cruz and Perry each has the support of 5% followed by Rubio, Walker, Kasich, and Santorum with 3% each.  One percent is for Jindal, and the same proportion, 1%, supports Fiorina.  Nearly one in five, 18%, is undecided.
  • By nearly two to one, Republicans and Republican leaning independents, 64%, report it is more important to have a nominee who will stand on conservative principles than it is to have a nominee for president who can win.  Last December, 67% thought the priority was to have a nominee who stood on conservative principles (Trend).
  • Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite in the Democratic primary.  62% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents support the former Secretary of State.  Vice President Joe Biden is a distant second with 11% while Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has 9%.  Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont receives 4%.  Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley has 1% as does former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia.  11% are undecided.
  • Nearly six in ten Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, 58%, think it’s more important to have a nominee who will move the nation in a new direction while 38% want someone who will continue President Barack Obama’s policies.  This is a major shift since last December when Democrats divided.  46% said they wanted a candidate who would go in a new direction, and 49% reported they wanted a continuation of Obama’s policies (Trend).

Clinton Bests GOP Rivals by Double Digits

Poll points:

  • Clinton, 53%, has a 12 point lead against Romney, 41%, among registered voters nationally.  Six percent are undecided.  Clinton, 53%, outpaced Romney, 44%, by 9 points in February (Trend).
  • Twelve points also separate Clinton, 53%, from Christie, 41%.  Six percent are undecided.  Clinton, 51%, outdistanced Christie, 42%, by 9 points in October (Trend).
  • Clinton, 53%, is up by 13 points over Bush, 40%.  Seven percent are undecided.  In October, Clinton, 53%, was ahead of Bush, 42%, by 11 points (Trend).
  • Clinton has the support of 54% of voters to 40% for Paul.  Six percent are undecided.  Clinton, 52%, had a 9 point lead over Paul, 43%, earlier in the fall (Trend).
  • Looking at a generic ballot which includes a choice for an independent candidate, neither the Democratic candidate, 37%, nor the Republican candidate, 35%, has the advantage among registered voters.  17% of voters would support an independent candidate.  12% are undecided.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

12/15: McClatchy-Marist Poll

In the 2016 race for the White House, has a Republican emerged  as the front-runner in the crowded GOP field?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

The White HouseTo read the full McClatchy article, click here.

12/15: Ferguson and Beyond: Race Permeates Views of Law Enforcement

December 15, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Following the grand jury decision in Ferguson, Missouri not to indict a white police officer who killed Michael Brown, the discussion, now, turns to whether or not the federal government should bring civil rights charges against that police officer.  Americans’ views on the issue fall along a racial divide.

Three in four African Americans nationally believe a federal civil rights suit should be brought against the officer while more than two-thirds of whites disagree.  When it comes to protests following incidents such as the fatal shooting in Ferguson, nearly seven in ten whites say these actions bring negative attention to the debate about race’s role in law enforcement.  A plurality of African Americans, however, believes these protests shed positive light on the issue.

African Americans and whites do agree in one area.  Regardless of race, more than six in ten Americans believe Michael Brown’s stepfather should not be charged with inciting a riot based on his reaction to the grand jury decision.

On the broader issue of the law enforcement process, race drives the discussion.  While whites are more likely to describe incidents like those in Ferguson and Staten Island, New York as isolated occurrences, African Americans are more likely to say these events are indicative of a larger problem.  Whites are more than twice as likely as African Americans to have a great deal of confidence in their community police to gain the trust of local residents and to treat blacks and whites equally.  The proportion of whites who express a high level of confidence in local law enforcement to protect them from violent crime also outnumbers the proportion of African Americans who share this view.

“When it comes to reactions to the events in Ferguson and Staten Island, the racial divide is wide,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Complete December 15, 2014 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States  

Poll points:

  • 57% of Americans do not think the federal government should bring civil rights charges against the white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri who killed an unarmed man.  34% believe the officer should face charges, and 9% are unsure.  African Americans, 75%, are much more likely than whites, 23%, to report a civil rights suit should be filed.  50% of Latinos think civil rights action against the officer should be taken.
  • More than six in ten residents, 62%, think the protests following the Ferguson and Staten Island decisions bring negative attention to these issues.  21% believe they have a positive impact while 12% say they have no effect at all.  While 68% of whites and 59% of Latinos believe the protests bring negative attention to the issues, only 35% of African Americans agree.  A plurality of African Americans, 43%, think the protests shed a positive light on the matter.
  • Many residents, 64%, say Michael Brown’s stepfather should not be charged with inciting a riot in the aftermath of the grand jury’s decision not to indict the officer who killed Brown.  29% report he should face charges.  78% of African Americans do not think the actions of Brown’s stepfather warrant criminal action.  64% of whites and 60% of Latinos agree.
  • 53% of Americans think the grand jury decisions in Ferguson and Staten Island are isolated cases and do not reflect an overall problem with the justice system when it comes to race and police officers.  41% of residents say these decisions are part of a larger issue.  76% of African Americans, compared with 33% of whites, report there is a problem with the justice system when it comes to law enforcement and race.  56% of Latinos share this view.
  • 43% of Americans have a great amount of confidence in their local police to gain the trust of local residents.  31% have a fair amount of confidence in law enforcement to do so, and 12% have some degree of confidence in them.  13% have very little confidence in the police to gain the trust of members of their community.  50% of whites have a great deal of confidence in the police to gain the trust of those they serve compared with only 22% of African Americans.
  • When it comes to the confidence Americans have in their local police to treat blacks and whites equally, 41% have a great deal of confidence in them.  30% have a fair amount of trust in local law enforcement to do so, and 11% have some.  16% of residents have very little confidence in local police to promote racial equality.  Whites, 49%, are more than twice as likely as African Americans, 22%, to think blacks and whites are treated equally by the police.
  • A plurality of U.S. residents, 45%, have confidence in their local police to protect them from violent crime in their community.  33% have a fair amount of trust in them to do so while 9% have some confidence in them.  12% of Americans have very little trust in law enforcement to keep them safe.  Nearly half of white residents, 49%, compared with 30% of African Americans, have a great deal of confidence in their local police to keep them safe from violent crime.  36% of Latinos have a similar level of trust in police to protect them.
  • Registered voters divide over President Barack Obama’s handling of race relations.  47% disapprove, and 44% approve.  Looking at race, 54% of white voters disapprove while 57% of non-white voters approve.
  • A plurality of Americans, 43%, thinks it helps race relations that President Obama is African American.  33% say it hurts, and a notable 24% are unsure.  While 44% of whites and 46% of Latinos say the president’s race is a benefit to race relations, a plurality of African Americans, 42%, consider it to be detrimental.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

12/12: McClatchy-Marist Poll

In the aftermath of the grand jury’s decision not to indict a white police officer who killed an unarmed black man in Ferguson, Missouri, do Americans think federal civil rights charges should be brought against the police officer?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

12/7: Race Shapes Americans’ Attitudes about Decisions in Ferguson and Staten Island

The grand jury decisions not to indict police officers who killed unarmed men in Ferguson, Missouri and Staten Island, New York have revealed a huge racial divide in how Americans perceive law enforcement in the United States.

While more than one in five white residents, 21%, reports increased confidence in the legal system following these decisions, seven in ten African Americans, 70%, have decreased confidence in the judicial system.

Additionally, whites are more than four times as likely as African Americans to have a great deal of confidence in police officers to treat blacks and whites equally, and whites are nearly four times more likely than African Americans to have a lot of trust in their local police officers to refrain from using excessive force when taking a suspect into custody.  White residents are also more than three times as likely as African Americans to believe local police do a good job enforcing the law.

By more than two-to-one, African Americans are more likely than whites to say law enforcement applies different standards to whites and blacks.

Age also impacts perceptions of law enforcement in the United States.  Americans under age 30 have a more negative view of police officials than older Americans.  However, when it comes to the grand jury decisions in Ferguson and Staten Island, younger Americans are more likely to say they have not heard anything about these decisions.

There is consensus in one area.  Regardless of race and age, Americans support requiring police officers to wear video recorders to monitor their policing procedures.

“These national poll results decidedly point to white and African Americans seeing similar events through a very different lens,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Complete December 7, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of the United States

Poll points:

Law Enforcement in the United States

  • More than seven in ten residents, 72%, have either a great deal, 41%, or a fair amount, 31%, of confidence in their local police to refrain from using excessive force on a suspect.  12% have some trust in law enforcement to use an appropriate level of force, and 13% have very little confidence in them to do so.  By close to four to one, whites, 50%, are more likely than African Americans, 13%, to trust officers to not cross the line when dealing with a suspect.  29% of Latinos share this view.  Americans under 30 years old, 21%, are more likely than their older counterparts to report they have very little confidence in law enforcement to use appropriate force when apprehending a suspect.
  • When it comes to whether Americans think law enforcement applies different standards to whites and blacks, 47% of residents believe two sets of rules apply while 44% think everyone is held to the same standard.  But, more than eight in ten African Americans, 82%, believe police have different standards based on race while 51% of whites disagree.
  • 69% of U.S. residents report they have either a great deal, 44%, or fair amount, 25%, of confidence in police officers in their community to treat blacks and whites equally.  11% have some trust in them to do so, and 16% have very little confidence in them to act in this regard.  While 52% of whites express a great deal of confidence in their local police not to discriminate, only 12% of African Americans share this view.  Among Latinos, 29% have a high degree of trust in police officials to treat blacks and whites equally.  When compared with older Americans, residents under 30 years old, 34%, are less likely to have the view that law enforcement officials treat blacks and whites the same.
  • More than three in four Americans, 77%, say they have, at least, a fair amount of confidence in their local police to do a good job enforcing the law.  This includes 48% who have a great amount of trust and 29% who have a fair amount of confidence in their local police officials to enforce the law.  10% have some trust in police officers to carry out their job while 12% have very little confidence in them to do so.  55% of whites, compared with 17% of African Americans express a great deal of confidence in the police to do a good job enforcing the law.  41% of Latinos share this view.
  • Regardless of race and age, most Americans, 76%, think police officers should be required to wear video recorders to monitor their policing.  17% oppose this idea.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

11/2: Louisiana: Landrieu Leads Cassidy in Tuesday’s Election, but Cassidy has Advantage in Runoff

In Tuesday’s contest for U.S. Senate in Louisiana, Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, 44%, leads Republican Bill Cassidy, 36%, by 8 points among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Republican Rob Maness receives 15%.

Partisan politics come into play.  Landrieu has secured her Democratic base.  Among Republicans likely to vote, Cassidy has the support of about seven in ten.  Maness draws more than one in five Republican likely voters.  A plurality of independent likely voters, 38%, supports Landrieu, but the majority of independents backs either Cassidy, 33%, or Maness, 20%.

If none of the candidates receives 50% of the vote, a runoff election will occur.  In a two-way contest against Landrieu, Cassidy is out in front.  Maness also has an edge over Landrieu should they square off in a runoff.

“Landrieu is well positioned to lead the field this Tuesday,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, she would face an uphill fight to keep her seat against Bill Cassidy, her likely opponent in a runoff.”

Complete November 2, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Louisiana

Poll points:

  • Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Landrieu receives 44% to 36% for Cassidy and 15% for Maness in the race for U.S. Senate.  Four percent are undecided.
  • Most Democrats likely to vote, 86%, are for Landrieu.  Among Republicans likely to vote, Cassidy has 71%, and Maness garners 22%.  38% of independents likely to cast a ballot support Landrieu.  Cassidy has 33% to 20% for Maness among these voters.
  • 63% of likely voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.  Seven percent might vote differently.  More of Landrieu’s supporters, 71%, compared with 60% of Maness’ backers and 55% of those for Cassidy, report they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.
  • Among registered voters, Landrieu, 42%, has a 7 point lead over Cassidy, 35%.  Maness receives 15%.  Six percent are undecided.
  • Landrieu’s negatives, 50%, are high among likely voters.  In contrast, likely voters, 41%, have an unfavorable view Cassidy.  Looking at Maness’ favorable score, 40% think well of him, and 37% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • 19% of likely voters cite job creation and economic growth as the most important issue in deciding their vote for Congress on Tuesday followed closely by Social Security and Medicare, 17%, and health care, 17%.  Breaking partisan gridlock in Washington, 14%, also rates highly among likely voters.  The deficit and government spending, 7%, military action against ISIS, 6%, immigration, 6%, and looking out for the interests of women, 3%, round out the list.
  • In a Cassidy-Landrieu runoff, Cassidy has 50% to 45% for Landrieu among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Looking at a Maness-Landrieu runoff, Maness has 50% to 46% for Landrieu.  In both of these two-way matchups, the Republican candidate secures his party’s base and attracts a majority of independents likely to vote.
  • President Barack Obama’s approval rating is 39% among Louisiana residents.  55% disapprove.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

11/2: Kentucky: McConnell Outpaces Grimes in U.S. Senate Race

Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell, 50%, is ahead of his Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes, 41%, among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.

While a partisan divide exists, McConnell benefits from the support of 17% of Democrats likely to vote, more than twice the proportion of Republican likely voters, 8%, who backs Grimes.  McConnell’s lead among independents likely to cast a ballot has gone up to 17 points from 7 points in NBC News/Marist’s September survey.

The gender gap has closed from 19 points to just 4 points with McConnell ahead among men and women.  McConnell also does well among likely voters who are married.  Grimes, though, has the advantage among likely voters who are single.

“McConnell has a strong lead in the closing days of the campaign,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Not only does McConnell still attract support from many more Democrats than Grimes receives from Republicans, but the gender gap has pretty much vanished with McConnell now leading Grimes among both men and women.” 

Complete November 2, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Kentucky

Poll Points:

  • McConnell, 50%, leads Grimes, 41%, by 9 points in the race for U.S. Senate among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have already voted.  Libertarian David Patterson has 5%.  In NBC News/Marist’s September survey, McConnell, 47%, had an 8 point lead over Grimes, 39%, among likely voters.
  • A partisan divide exists.  However, McConnell, 17%, receives more than twice as many Democratic likely voters than Grimes garners Republicans likely to vote, 8%.
  • McConnell, 49%, has a 17 point lead over Grimes, 32%, among independents likely to cast a ballot, up from 7 points in September.
  • Marital status matters.  62% of married men and 57% of married women are for McConnell.  In contrast, 52% of single men and 51% of single women are for Grimes.
  • 63% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters, up from 56%, strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.  69% of Grimes’ supporters and 62% of McConnell’s backers say they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  For both candidates, more of their supporters report they will not waver in their commitment than previously.
  • Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have already voted, McConnell has 49% to 39% for Grimes.  Patterson garners 6%.  McConnell, 45%, was ahead of Grimes, 38%, by 7 points among registered voters last month.
  • Neither McConnell nor Grimes is viewed favorably by Kentucky’s likely electorate.  McConnell’s negative score stands at 49%, little changed from 48% previously.  Grimes’ negative score has inched up to 47% from 43%.
  • Job creation and economic growth, 22%, is the key issue for likely voters in deciding their vote for Congress.  Breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington follows closely with 20%.  Social Security and Medicare takes the third spot with 14%.  10% of likely voters consider health care the key issue in the race while 9% mention the deficit and government spending.  Seven percent say military action against ISIS is the deciding factor in their vote, and immigration and looking out for the interests of women each receives 3%.
  • President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is at 30% among Kentucky adults similar to the 31% he received in September.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

11/2: Georgia: Perdue Edges Nunn in U.S. Senate Race… Deal Up over Carter in Governor’s Contest

Republican David Perdue, 48%, is narrowly ahead of Democrat Michelle Nunn, 44%, in the contest for U.S. Senate among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Libertarian Amanda Swafford receives 3%.

While Perdue and Nunn have solid support among their respective party’s base, Perdue has a slight advantage among independents likely to vote.  Perdue also edges Nunn among men who are likely to go to the polls and is competitive against Nunn among women who are likely to vote.

If neither Perdue nor Nunn receives 50% of the vote on Tuesday, the contest will go to a runoff in January.  In a two-way matchup, Perdue has 49% to 46% for Nunn among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.

Turning to the governor’s race in Georgia, Republican incumbent Nathan Deal, 48%, leads Democrat Jason Carter, 43%, by 5 points among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Libertarian Andrew Hunt garners 3%.

If Tuesday’s election were to result in a runoff, Deal, 50%, would be the early favorite against Carter, 46%, among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.

“In a state that has undergone major demographic changes, Democrats are hoping to score an upset in the senate contest in Georgia to offset expected losses elsewhere,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although the race for senate is close, Perdue is narrowly in front.”

Complete November 2, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Georgia 

Poll Points U.S. Senate:

  • In the race for U.S. Senate, Perdue receives 48% to 44% for Nunn among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.   Swafford has the support of 3%, and 4% are undecided.
  • Among early voters, Nunn, 52%, leads Perdue, 45%.  Perdue is the favorite among likely voters still to cast a ballot.
  • While a partisan divide exists, Perdue has the support of 45% of independents likely to vote compared with 39% for Nunn.  Swafford garners 9% of the independent likely electorate.
  • Perdue, 49%, is ahead of Nunn, 43%, among men likely to vote.  Perdue, 47%, and Nunn, 45%, are competitive among women likely to cast a ballot.
  • 64% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters are firmly committed to their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.  More of Nunn’s supporters, 74%, compared with Perdue’s backers, 58%, say they strongly support their choice of candidate.
  • Both Nunn and Perdue are viewed positively by likely voters.  Nunn’s favorable rating is at 49%, and Perdue’s score stands at 47%.
  • Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Perdue, 45%, and Nunn, 43%, are in a virtual dead heat.  Swafford has 4%.
  • Job creation and economic growth is the key issue in deciding for whom to vote for Congress for 26% of likely voters.  Breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington is second with 17%.  Health care, 13%, and Social Security and Medicare, 12%, follow.  Eight percent mention the deficit and government spending while 7% cite military action against ISIS.  Immigration and looking out for the interests of women trail with 5% and 2%, respectively.
  • If Perdue and Nunn were to compete in a runoff for U.S. Senate, Perdue, receives 49% to 46% for Nunn among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.

Poll Points Governor:

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

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