4/16: Clinton with Majority Support against GOP Hopefuls

If Hillary Clinton were to enter the presidential contest, she would be the front-runner with a strong lead against her possible Republican rivals.  Her closest opponent, Paul Ryan, trails Clinton by 8 percentage points among registered voters nationally.  Clinton outpaces her other potential GOP rivals by double digits.

Click Here for Complete April 16, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Hillary Clinton is very popular among Democrats and may have smooth sailing to the Democratic nomination,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “She currently dominates a crowded Republican field and continues to break 50% against each of her possible GOP rivals.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates: 

  • 51% support Clinton compared with 43% for Ryan.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton — 52% — led Ryan — 44% — by the same margin in February’s McClatchy-Marist Poll.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Against Chris Christie, Clinton receives 53% to 42% for Christie.  Five percent are undecided.  However, Clinton outpaced Christie by 21 percentage points in February.  At that time, 58% of registered voters, then, backed Clinton while 37% supported Christie.  Six percent were undecided.
  • 53% of voters support Clinton while 40% are behind Mike Huckabee.  Six percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 55% were for Clinton while 41% were behind Huckabee.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 54% — also has the advantage against Rand Paul — 40%.  Six percent are undecided.  In that previous McClatchy-Marist Poll, 58% were for Clinton while 38% were for Paul.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 54% — outdistances Ted Cruz — 39% — by 15 percentage points.  Seven percent are undecided.  Two months ago, 56% of voters were behind Clinton while 39% supported Cruz.  Five percent, then, were undecided.
  • When matched against Jeb Bush, Clinton leads Bush, 55% to 39%.  Six percent are undecided.  In February, Clinton received 58% to 38% for Bush.  Four percent were undecided.
  • Clinton garners 54% to 38% for Marco Rubio.  Eight percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 58% of voters supported Clinton while 37% backed Rubio.  Four percent were undecided.
  • Clinton — 56% — does the best against Joe Scarborough — 35%.  Here, she leads Scarborough by 21 percentage points.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio (Over Time)

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Scarborough

Majority with Favorable View of Clinton…Christie and Bush Upside Down

52% of registered voters nationally have a positive opinion of Clinton, including 81% of Democrats.  43% have an unfavorable view of her, including 78% of Republicans.  Five percent have either never heard of Clinton or are unsure how to rate her.  Independent voters divide.  49% of these voters like Hillary Clinton and 46% do not.  There has been no change on this question since February when identical proportions of registered voters had these views.  52%, at that time, thought well of Clinton, 43% had an unfavorable opinion of her, and 5% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Voters’ impressions of Christie and Bush are upside down.  44% of voters have a negative view of Christie while 36% have a positive impression of him.  One in five — 20% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Two months ago, 46% had an unfavorable opinion of Christie, and 33% thought well of him.  21% had either never heard of Christie or were unsure how to rate him.

Looking at Bush’s favorable rating, 42% have an unfavorable impression of him.  However, 31% like Bush.  27% have either never heard of Jeb Bush or are unsure how to rate him.

Close to two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — have either never heard of Scarborough or are unsure how to rate him.  21% have a negative view of the former congressman and morning show host while 14% have a positive impression of Scarborough.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability (Over Time)

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability (Over Time)

Table: Jeb Bush Favorability

Table: Joe Scarborough Favorability

No Clear Leader of the GOP Pack

None of the potential Republican contenders for president has emerged as the front-runner.  2016 for the GOP is an open contest with no one having established an early advantage.

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:

  • 13% Mike Huckabee
  • 13% Jeb Bush
  • 12% Rand Paul
  • 12% Chris Christie
  • 12% Paul Ryan
  •   7% Marco Rubio
  •   5% Scott Walker
  •   4% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Bobby Jindal
  •   3% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  • <1% John Kasich
  • 14% undecided

In February’s McClatchy-Marist Poll, Christie and Huckabee each received the support of 13% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  12% backed Rubio while 9% were for Paul.  Another 9% supported Ryan.  Bush and Sarah Palin each garnered the support of 8% of Republicans.  Seven percent were behind Walker, and 5% backed Cruz.  Perry and Santorum each had 2%, and Kasich garnered 1%.  12%, at that time, were undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/15: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to 2016, what would Hillary Clinton’s electoral chances be if she decided to run for president?  Is there a clear front-runner among the potential Republican candidates?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

4/15: Majority Considers Ukraine in U.S. Interest, but Most Oppose Use of Force

A majority of Americans — 55% — considers Ukraine to be key to the national interest.  This includes 13% who say it is very important and 42% who consider it to be important.  39%, however, report it is either not very important — 30% — or not important at all — 9% — to the United States.  Six percent are unsure.

Click Here for Complete April 15, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“There is a good deal of ambivalence about Ukraine as far as U.S. public opinion is concerned,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Americans think it’s important to the national interest, and Russia may expand the conflict.  But, there is little public consensus in the U.S. to take a tough stand.”

Regardless of political party, a majority thinks Ukraine is of consequence to America’s interests.  Republicans, however, are the most likely to feel this way.  61% of Republicans say Ukraine is either very important or important to the United States.  This compares with 52% of Democrats and 53% of independent voters who have the same opinion.

There are gender differences on this question.  Six in ten women — 60% — say the region is of value to the United States.  48% of men say the same.

However, when it comes to whether or not the United States should draw a hard line against Russia because of Ukraine, half of residents — 50% — do not think the United States should take such a firm stance because it could mean losing Russia’s cooperation on other issues like Iran and Syria.  42% disagree and report America should take a tough stand against Russia.  Eight percent are unsure.

What, if anything, should the United States do to address the situation in Ukraine?  Only 7% of Americans think military options should be considered.  46% say the best way to deal with the crisis in Ukraine is through economic and political means, and 43% think the United States should not get involved at all.  Four percent are unsure.

A majority of Republicans — 54% — wants America to handle the situation diplomatically.  A plurality of Democrats — 47% — says the United States should stay out of the situation entirely while 43% believe the best options are political and economic.  Nearly half of independent voters — 48% — say America should address the situation through non-military measures.

Table: Importance of Ukraine to the National Interest of the United States

Table: Should the United States Draw a Hard Line Against Russia in Ukraine?

Table: How the United States Should Handle the Situation in Ukraine

About Two-Thirds Say Russia will Send Troops Beyond Crimea…Divide about Possibility of New Cold War 

66% of Americans think Russia will not stop at Crimea and will deploy troops to other parts of Ukraine.  One in four — 25% — thinks Russia will keep its word and will stop at Crimea.  Nine percent are unsure.

Do residents think the situation in Ukraine will lead to another cold war between the United States and Russia?  Americans divide.  49% report it is either not very likely — 37% — or not likely at all — 12% — that this will occur.  46%, however, think a second cold war is either very likely — 13% — or likely — 33%.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to think another cold war is looming.  A majority of Republicans — 54% — says a cold war is very likely or likely to take place.  This compares with 41% of Democrats and 45% of independent voters who share this view.

Table: Will Russia Send Troops to Other Regions of Ukraine?

Table: Likelihood the Situation in Ukraine will Lead to Another Cold War

Obama’s Handling of Ukraine Crisis Receives Mixed Reviews

45% of Americans approve of how President Barack Obama is dealing with the situation in Ukraine.  45% disapprove, and 10% are unsure.

There is a partisan divide.  72% of Republicans are dissatisfied with how the president is addressing the situation in Ukraine while 69% of Democrats approve.  Still, 21% of Democrats disapprove of the way Mr. Obama is handling the conflict.  Independents divide.  46% of these voters think the president is dealing with the situation appropriately while 47% disapprove of his approach.

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Situation in Ukraine

Majority Still Disapproves of Obama’s Performance as President

When it comes to the overall job performance of President Obama, a majority of registered voters nationally — 52% — disapproves of how the president is doing.  45% approve, and 3% are unsure.  These views are similar to those in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.  In February, 52% of voters thought the president’s job performance was lacking.  42% gave him high marks, and 5% were unsure.

When it comes to how President Obama is handling the economy, a majority of voters — 54% — disapproves.  44% approve, and 2% are unsure.  Last time, 54% thought Mr. Obama fell short on the economy while 41% gave him a thumbs-up.  Five percent were unsure.

In the foreign policy arena, 52% of voters disapprove of how the president is doing.  42% approve, and 6% are unsure.  Two months ago, 50% disapproved of how President Obama was handling foreign policy.  43% approved, and 8%, then, were unsure.

Looking at President Obama’s image, voters divide.  49% have a favorable opinion of him while 49% have an unfavorable view of him.  Two percent are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 47% thought well of the president while half — 50% — had a lesser view of him.  Three percent were unsure how to rate him.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy (Over Time)

Table: President Obama’s Handling Foreign Policy

Table: President Obama’s Handling Foreign Policy (Over Time)

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

Fight for Congress: Dem’s Edge GOP in Generic Midterm Matchup

If November’s election for Congress were held today, the Democrats would have an edge over the Republicans as far as the total national vote is concerned.  Nearly half of registered voters nationally — 48% — would support the Democrat on the ballot in their district while 42% would back the Republican candidate.  Four percent would vote for neither, and 6% are undecided.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in February, voters divided.  46% favored the Democrat while 44% were for the Republican.  Four percent reported they would not vote for either candidate, and 5% were undecided.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide.  Most Democrats — 90% — favor the Democratic candidate while most Republicans — 94% — support the Republican.  Among independent voters, 43% are for the Democrat while 40% are for the Republican.

Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans in Congress are held in high regard by voters.  Only 32% of registered voters approve of how the congressional Democrats are doing in office.  63% disapprove, and 5% are unsure.  In February, 33% of voters were satisfied with how the Democrats were performing in Congress.  60% disapproved, and 7% were unsure.

Looking at congressional Republicans, 26% of voters approve of their job performance while 69% disapprove.  Five percent are unsure.  In the February McClatchy-Marist Poll, 22% approved of how the congressional GOP did their job.  72% disapproved, and 6% were unsure.

Table: 2014 Congressional Elections

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Nearly Two-Thirds Pessimistic about the Direction of the Nation 

64% of adults think the country is moving in the wrong direction.  32% believe it is on the right path, and 3% are unsure.  There has been virtually little change from McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.  In February, 64% of residents reported the nation was on the wrong road.  33% said it was on the right track, and 3% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Over Time)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/14: McClatchy-Marist Poll

What are Americans’ views on the situation in Ukraine?  Is the region important to the national interests of the United States?  Should the U.S. take military action, and do Americans approve of how President Barack Obama is handling the situation?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

3/26: Bowser and Gray Neck and Neck in Democratic Primary Race for D.C. Mayor

Muriel Bowser has eroded Mayor Vincent Gray’s once eight percentage point lead in the race for the Democratic nomination for D.C. mayor.  With a week to go before the primary, among likely Democratic voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot, Bowser has the support of 28% compared with 26% for Gray.

Click Here for Complete March 26, 2014 NBC4/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC4/Marist Poll

“There are two very different paths to victory for Councilwoman Bowser and Mayor Gray,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Bowser has picked up support among white voters and is the most popular second choice as voters make their final decision.  Gray has a strong base of support among African American voters and greater enthusiasm among his backers.”

Here is how the contest for the Democratic nomination for D.C. mayor stands among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot:

  • 28% Muriel Bowser
  • 26% Vincent Gray
  • 11% Tommy Wells
  •   9% Jack Evans
  •   4% Andy Shallal
  •   4% Vincent Orange
  •   2% Reta Lewis
  • <1% Carlos Allen
  •   1% other
  • 15% undecided

When the NBC4/Marist Poll reported this question last month, Gray — 28% — was ahead of Bowser — 20% — by eight percentage points among District Democrats likely to vote in the primary.  Evans received 13% of the vote while Wells garnered 12%.  Six percent backed Shallal, and 4% supported Orange.  Lewis had the backing of 3%, and less than 1% of D.C. Democrats were for Allen.  One percent wanted another candidate to receive the party’s nod, and 12% were undecided.

Looking at race, among likely Democratic voters who are African American, Gray — 43% — leads Bowser — 22% — by almost two to one.  Among whites, Bowser — 36% — has the advantage over Wells — 19% — and Evans — 15%.  Only 7% are for Gray.

While Gray maintains his lead over Bowser among African American Democrats likely to vote, Bowser has advanced to the front of the pack among likely Democratic voters who are white.  Last month, 24% of white voters supported Wells, 21% backed Evans, and 18% were behind Bowser.  Gray garnered 10%.  Among African American voters likely to vote, 41% backed Gray while 23% were for Bowser.  55% of likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference including those who voted early or by absentee ballot are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.  30% are somewhat behind their pick while 14% might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.  In the previous NBC4/Marist Poll, 44% of likely Democratic voters expressed a high level of support for their candidate.  36% were somewhat committed to their selection while 19% reported they might cast their ballot differently.  One percent, at that time, was unsure.

Looking at the depth of commitment for the top two candidates, nearly seven in ten of those who are behind Gray — 69% — strongly support him while 49% of likely Democrats for Bowser are firmly in her corner.  Last month, 53% of Gray’s backers were strongly committed to him.  This compares with 50% of Bowser’s supporters who said the same about their candidate.

Who is the second choice of likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference?  With 22%, Bowser takes the top spot followed by Evans with 18% and Wells with 12%.  Gray garners 8%, and another 8% say Orange is their second choice candidate.  Seven percent pick Shallal, 2% cite Lewis, and 1% mentions Allen.  Four percent choose another candidate as their second choice, and 20% are undecided.

In February, 21% selected Bowser as their backup candidate while 18% reported Evans was their second choice.  Wells and Gray each received 12% while 9% said Orange was their second choice.  Seven percent reported Shallal was their second choice candidate while 4% said the same of Lewis. One percent, at that time, selected Allen.  Another 1% believed someone else was their backup candidate, and 15% were undecided.

Are likely Democratic voters enthusiastic about going to the polls on Tuesday?  39% are very enthusiastic and 42% are moderately so. 13% are not too enthusiastic, and six percent are not enthusiastic at all.

Likely Democrats for Gray express more enthusiasm to vote than those for Bowser.  47% of Gray’s supporters are highly enthusiastic.  This compares with 38% of likely Democrats who back Bowser and have a similar level of enthusiasm about going to the polls.

Table: 2014 District of Columbia Democratic Mayoral Primary (D.C. Likely Democratic Voters with Leaners Including Absentee and Early Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for District of Columbia Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (D.C. Likely Democratic Voters with a Candidate Preference Including Absentee and Early Voters)

Table: Second Choice for the District of Columbia Mayoral Primary (D.C. Likely Democratic Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote in District of Columbia Mayoral Primary (D.C. Likely Democratic Voters)

Jobs and Economy Top of Mind for Many D.C. Democrats 

42% of Democrats in the District say, when it comes to deciding their vote, jobs and the economy matter most.  One in four Democrats — 25% — mentions ethics as their motivating factor while 17% report housing is their priority.  Crime is the leading concern of 11% of Democratic voters, and 4% are unsure.

These findings reflect those reported last month.  At that time, more than four in ten Democrats — 44% — reported the economy and jobs were the most important factor in deciding their vote.  Ethics was the leading issue for 22% while another 22% said housing was their priority.  11% of Democrats cited crime as their top concern, and 2% were unsure.

A racial divide still exists.  A majority of Democrats who are African American — 53% — say the economy and jobs are the most influential when deciding their vote.  However, a plurality of white voters — 47% — says ethics are their priority.  Little has changed since last month when 50% of African American Democrats cited the jobs and the economy, and 43% of white Democrats mentioned ethics as their leading issue.

Table: Most Important Issue in Deciding Vote for Mayor in April’s Democratic Primary (D.C. Democrats)

Campaign Finance Investigation Hard Hit for Gray? 

From what they know or have heard about the investigation into Mayor Gray’s finances from his 2010 campaign, a majority of Democratic voters — 56% — says they are less likely to vote for Gray.  Only 8% are more likely to support him, and 31% report it makes no difference to their vote.  Five percent are unsure.

These results are similar to those found last month.  At that time, 53% were less likely to back Gray.  Seven percent said they would be more likely to vote for him, and 36% thought the scandal would not impact their vote.  Four percent of Democrats were unsure.

How do D.C. residents, overall, describe Gray’s 2010 campaign activities?  35% think he did something unethical but not illegal.  29% say he was involved in illegal activities, and 14% believe he didn’t do anything wrong.  23% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters agree.

There has been an uptick in the proportion of D.C. residents who believe Gray’s involvement in the scandal included illegal activities.  Last month, 42% of adults in the District said Gray did something unethical but not illegal.  24% believed his involvement was illegal, and 14% thought he did nothing wrong.  20%, at that time, were unsure.

While 36% of D.C. Democrats currently say Gray took part in unethical but not illegal behavior, 30% say he was involved in illegal actions.  16% believe Gray did nothing wrong, and 18% are unsure.  However, in February, 46% called Gray’s involvement unethical while 24% thought something illegal occurred.  15% of Democrats, at that time, said Gray was on the up-and-up, and 15% were unsure.

Table: Does 2010 Investigation into Mayor Vincent Gray’s Campaign Finances Make You More or Less Likely to Vote for Him (D.C. Democrats)

Table: Did Mayor Vincent Gray Perform Illegal or Unethical Actions (D.C. Adults)

Bowser Stronger Democratic Candidate over Catania in General Election 

In a hypothetical matchup for the general election in November, Bowser, as the Democratic candidate for mayor, has a 20 percentage point advantage against independent candidate David Catania.  46% of registered voters in D.C. say they would vote for Bowser while 26% would support Catania.  28% are undecided.

What do Gray’s general election chances look like if he wins next week’s Democratic primary?  43% of voters would support Gray in November while 37% are for Catania.  20% are undecided.

Looking at race, while Gray — 57% — and Bowser — 54% — each carries a majority of African American voters against Catania, Bowser is the stronger Democratic candidate among whites.  Against Catania, 39% of white voters would back Bowser.  The same proportion — 39% — is for Catania.  However, against Gray, Catania receives 56% of white voters to 24% for Gray.

Table: 2014 Race for D.C. Mayor: Bowser/Catania (D.C. Registered Voters)

Table: 2014 Race for D.C. Mayor: Gray/Catania (D.C. Registered Voters)

Skepticism about Gray 

Only 34% of adults in D.C. say, if Gray receives the Democratic nomination, they definitely plan to vote for him.  40% report they definitely will not vote for him, and 26% are undecided.  Among registered voters in the District, 33% would absolutely cast their ballot for him.  41% would definitely vote against him, and 26% are undecided.

Uncertainty about Gray has increased.  In last month’s NBC4/Marist Poll, more than four in ten D.C. residents — 43% — said they would definitely vote for Gray.  40% would definitely not, and 17% were undecided.  Among registered voters, 42% reported they would back Gray, 42% would cast their ballot for someone else, and 16% were undecided.

Nearly six in ten residents — 59% — think it’s time to elect someone else.  29% believe Gray deserves to be re-elected, and 13% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  60% of voters want a change while 27% think Gray should receive a second term.  12% are unsure.

In February, 60% of adults wanted a new mayor to take charge.  31%, however, thought Gray should be re-elected.  Nine percent were unsure.  Among registered voters in the District, 62% said someone new should take the reins of the city.  30% wanted Gray to be re-elected, and 8% were unsure.

Table: Will You Definitely Vote For or Against Mayor Gray in General Election? (D.C. Adults)

Table: Does Mayor Vincent Gray Deserve to be Re-elected? (D.C. Adults)

Decline in Gray Approval Rating… Fewer with Positive Opinion of Mayor 

Half of D.C. residents — 50% — approve of the job Gray is doing in office.  35% disapprove, and 16% are unsure.  Looking at registered voters, 49% give Gray high marks.  37% think he has fallen short, and 14% are unsure.

There has been a drop in Gray’s approval rating over the last month.  In February, a majority of adults — 56% — thought well of how he was doing his job.  36% disapproved of his performance in office, and 8% were unsure.  Among registered voters, at that time, 55% approved of the mayor’s job performance.  38% disapproved, and 6% were unsure.

Gray’s image has also suffered.  35% have a favorable view of Gray while 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  17% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Looking at registered voters, 35% like Gray while 49% have a negative view of the mayor.  16% have either never heard of Gray or are unsure how to rate him.

Last month, 45% of residents had a favorable impression of Gray while 46% had an unfavorable one.  Nine percent had either never heard of Gray or were unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters, 45% thought well of the mayor, and 48% had a negative opinion of him.  Seven percent had either never heard of Gray or were unsure how to rate him.

Overall, do D.C. residents think the city is moving in the right direction?  Close to two-thirds — 65% — think the District is on course while 21% say it has fallen off track.  14% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these opinions.

When this question was last reported, 71% of adults in D.C. said the city was moving in the right direction.  24% reported it was travelling in the wrong one, and 5% were unsure.

Table: Mayor Vincent Gray Approval Rating (D.C. Adults)

Table: Vincent Gray Favorability (D.C. Adults)

Table: Direction of the District of Columbia (D.C. Adults)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

2/13: Many Americans Lack Confidence in Obama and Congressional GOP

February 13, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Americans’ faith in their elected officials in Washington is in short supply.  Nearly two-thirds of adults nationally report they do not have confidence in President Barack Obama to make headway on important issues facing the country this year, and more than seven in ten have this view of the Republicans in Congress.  When it comes to the grade Americans give to their elected officials in Washington, nearly six in ten residents say they deserve below average marks.

President Barack Obama

whitehouse.gov

Click Here for Complete February 13, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Americans paint a very stark picture of their leaders in Washington,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “They’re fatigued by political infighting and see recent agreements as too little too late.”

65% of U.S. residents are not very confident — 34% — or not confident at all — 31% — that President Obama will advance the key issues facing the nation in the coming year.  However, about one in three Americans — 33% — has faith in President Obama to make headway on important issues on the national agenda.  Included here are 7% who are very confident and 26% who are confident.  Two percent are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

While 62% of Democrats express confidence in the president’s ability to move the national conversation forward, 37% are not that certain.  Not surprisingly, most Republicans — 91% — do not believe President Obama will be able to advance the important issues facing the country.  Nearly three in four independents — 74% — agree.

When it comes to the Republicans in Congress, 71% of adults nationally do not think they will be able to advance the key issues on the national agenda.  This includes 43% who are not very confident in them to do so and 28% who are not confident at all.  Only 26% of Americans believe the GOP in Congress can make headway on these issues.  Included here are 3% who are very confident and 23% who are confident.  The views of registered voters mirror those of Americans, overall.

By party, more than three in four Democrats — 77% — and close to eight in ten independents — 79% — lack confidence in Congressional Republicans to advance the important issues facing the nation.  Even six in ten Republicans — 60% — have this opinion.

Overall, Americans are dissatisfied with the performance of elected officials in Washington.  57% of adults nationally give elected officials below average grades.  This includes 28% who say they deserve a “D” and 29% who report they should be given an “F.”  Only 1% thinks the country’s representatives in Washington have earned an “A,” and 12% believe they should receive a “B.”  29% bestow an average grade of “C” on public officeholders in Washington.

There has been some improvement on this question.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported it in December, 68% of adults thought federal officials deserved below average grades.  One percent said they should receive an “A” while 7% reported “B” was sufficient.  Close to one in four — 24% — thought elected officials in Washington earned a “C.”

Table: Confidence Level in President Obama to Make Headway on Important Issues

Table: Confidence Level in the Republicans in Congress to Make Headway on Important Issues

Table: Grade Given to Elected Officials in Washington, D.C.

Majority Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance 

52% of registered voters nationally disapprove of how President Obama is doing his job.  42% approve, and 5% are unsure.  There has been little movement on this question since December when 53% believed the president had fallen short.  43%, at that time, approved of the president’s job performance, and 4% were unsure.

A partisan divide exists.  While 80% of Democrats approve of the job Obama is doing, 88% of Republicans disapprove.  Nearly six in ten independents — 58% — are dissatisfied with how the president is performing his job.

On the specifics of the president’s job performance, a majority of voters — 54% — disapproves of how he is handling the economy.  41% approve, and 5% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s December survey, 58% disapproved of how Obama was dealing with the economy.  40% approved, and 2% were unsure.

Half of voters — 50% — are also displeased with how President Obama is handling foreign policy.  43% approve of the president’s approach, and 8% are unsure.  These results are similar to those found in December when 51% of voters nationally disapproved of how President Obama tackled foreign policy issues.  46% approved, and 4%, then, were unsure.

When it comes to the president’s favorability, voters divide.  50% have a negative opinion of Mr. Obama while 47% have a favorable one.  Three percent have either never heard of the president or are unsure how to rate him.

Perceptions of the president have improved slightly.  When this question was last reported in January, 48% of voters had an unfavorable impression of him, and 41% had a favorable one.  11%, at that time, had either never heard of the president or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy (Over Time)

Table: Handling Foreign Policy

Table: Handling Foreign Policy (Over Time)

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

Voters Still Sour on Congressional GOP and Dems

Members of Congress are also feeling the heat from voters.  More than seven in ten voters — 72% — disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing, including a majority of Republicans.  22% of registered voters approve, and 6% are unsure.  Congressional Republicans have not been able to reverse public opinion.  In December, 74% of voters gave them low marks.  22% thought they were doing a good job, and 4% were unsure.

Impressions of the Republican Party, overall, are far from stellar.  More than six in ten voters nationally — 62% — have an unfavorable view of the GOP.  32% think well of the party, and 6% have either never heard of it or are unsure how to rate it.

Independents are key.  65% of independent voters have a negative view of the Republican Party, and even 29% of Republicans have this view.  Not surprisingly, more than eight in ten Democrats — 84% — have an unfavorable opinion of the GOP.

Congressional Democrats don’t fare much better.  Six in ten voters — 60% — disapprove of the job they are doing.  About one-third — 33% — approves, and 7% are unsure.  There has been little change since December when 64% of the national electorate believed the Democrats in Congress fell short.  33% thought they were doing well in their post, and 3%, then, were unsure.

When it comes to what voters think of the Democratic Party, 53% have an unfavorable impression of it.  43% have a favorable view of the party, and 4% have either never heard of it or are unsure how to rate it.

Again, independent voters play a pivotal role.  56% of independents have a negative opinion of the Democratic Party.  91% of Republicans share this view.  However, more than eight in ten Democrats — 82% — have a positive impression of their political party.

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Republican Party Favorability

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Democratic Party Favorability

The Battle for Congressional Control: Voters Divide

Looking to this year’s mid-term elections, 46% of voters say they would support the Democratic candidate.  44% would back the Republican while 4% would vote for another candidate.  Five percent are undecided.

These results reflect those found in December’s survey.  At that time, 43% of voters said they would support the Democrat for Congress while 43% said they were for the Republican.  Six percent would vote for someone else, and 8% were undecided.

The parties are polarized with 88% of Democrats saying they would support the Democratic candidate and 96% of Republicans reporting they would back the Republican candidate.  Among independents, they divide.  43% would support the Democrat while 40% would back the Republican for Congress in their district.

Table: 2014 Congressional Elections

Nearly Two-Thirds of Americans Believe Nation is on the Wrong Track

64% of adults nationally believe the country is on the wrong track.  33% say it is on the right one, and 3% are unsure.  When this question was last reported earlier this month, 63% of Americans believed the country was moving in the wrong direction while 30% thought it was traveling in the right one.  Eight percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Over Time)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

2/12: McClatchy-Marist Poll

What are voters’ views toward President Barack Obama and Congress?  Do they approve of the way Mr. Obama is handling the economy and the way he is dealing with foreign policy?  And, overall, what grade do Americans give their elected officials in Washington?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

2/12: Clinton Breaks 50% against GOP Rivals for 2016

February 12, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

If Hillary Clinton were to run for president in 2016 and win her party’s nomination, a majority of registered voters nationally would support Clinton, regardless of her Republican opponent.  Her closest competitor is Paul Ryan who Clinton leads by single digits.  Clinton has a similar lead when up against former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Click Here for Complete February 12, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Voters are still a long way from making choices,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, right now, Clinton is in a league of her own.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

  • Clinton — 52% — leads Paul Ryan — 44% — by 8 percentage points.  Four percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in December, Clinton received 56% to 40% for Ryan.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton — 53% — is also ahead of Romney — 44% — by single digits.  Three percent are undecided.
  • Against Mike Huckabee, Clinton opens up a double-digit lead.  Here, 55% of voters are for Clinton compared with 41% for Huckabee.  Four percent are undecided.
  • Clinton — 56% — has a seventeen percentage point advantage over Ted Cruz — 39%.  Five percent are undecided.  In December, Clinton received 57% to 35% for Cruz.  Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Clinton also outpaces Jeb Bush by 20 percentage points.  58% of voters nationally support Clinton compared with 38% for Bush.  Four percent are undecided.  In December, Clinton had 53% while Bush received 41%.  Six percent, then, were undecided.
  • When matched against Rand Paul, Clinton leads by 20 percentage points.  A majority — 58% — supports Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  Four percent are undecided.  In that previous McClatchy-Marist survey, 55% backed Clinton while 40% were for Paul.  Five percent were undecided.
  • Against Chris Christie, Clinton — 58% — outdistances Christie — 37% — by 21 percentage points.  Six percent are undecided.  When this question was reported in January, 50% of voters were for Clinton while 37% were for Christie.  12% were undecided.
  • Nearly six in ten voters — 58% — support Clinton compared with 37% for Marco Rubio.  Four percent are undecided.  In December, 52% backed Clinton while 42% supported Rubio.  Five percent were undecided.
  • Against Sarah Palin, Clinton receives 62% to 35% for Palin.  Three percent are undecided.  Two months ago, 59% were behind Clinton compared with 36% for Palin.  Four percent were undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Romney

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Palin

Favorably Speaking?

A majority of registered voters — 52% — has a favorable view of Clinton.  43% have an unfavorable impression of her, and 5% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In January, 51% of voters thought well of Clinton.  39% had a lesser view of her, and 10% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Half of Americans, including a slim majority of voters, give Clinton high marks for her tenure as Secretary of State.  50% of adults approve of the job she did.  This includes 18% who think she did an excellent job and 32% who believe she did a good one.  28% rate her performance as fair while 19% give her poor marks.  Three percent are unsure.  Among registered voters, 51% of voters think highly of the job Clinton did as Secretary of State.  26% report she did an average job while 20% say she fell short.  Three percent of voters are unsure.

Romney’s favorability is upside down.  51% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney while 43% have a favorable one.  Six percent have either never heard of Romney or are unsure how to rate him.

Christie’s favorable rating is also more negative than positive.  A plurality of voters — 46% — has an unfavorable view of him.  33% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of Christie or are unsure how to rate him.  Fewer voters are unsure about Christie’s image, to his detriment.  In January, 32% of voters had a negative view of Christie.  29% had a positive one, and 39% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Americans’ opinions regarding Christie’s involvement in the George Washington Bridge controversy have flipped.  46% of adults nationally currently say Christie is not telling the truth while 42% think he is.  12% are unsure.  In January, 44% of Americans reported Christie was being mostly truthful while 33% thought Christie was not being completely honest.  23%, then, were unsure.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Hillary Clinton Approval Rating as Secretary of State

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Telling the Truth about the George Washington Bridge Controversy?

Crowded Field for 2016 GOP Nomination

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:

  • 13% Chris Christie
  • 13% Mike Huckabee
  • 12% Marco Rubio
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   9% Paul Ryan
  •   8% Jeb Bush
  •   8% Sarah Palin
  •   7% Scott Walker
  •   5% Ted Cruz
  •   2% Rick Perry
  •   2% Rick Santorum
  •   1% John Kasich
  • 12% undecided

“The Democrats may have a clear front-runner in Hillary Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, front-runner is not the word you would use to describe the GOP field.”

When this question was last reported in January, Christie had the support of 16%, 12% backed Ryan while 9% were for Paul.  Bush had the support of 8%, and 7% were for Rubio.  Six percent backed Perry, and Santorum and Cruz each received 5%.  Four percent were for Scott Walker while 3% were behind Bobby Jindal.  One in four — 25% — was undecided.

Which candidate would be the second choice of Republican and Republican leaning independents without Christie and Palin in the contest?  Here is how the race stands among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents:

  • 15% Marco Rubio
  • 15% Mike Huckabee
  • 13% Paul Ryan
  • 12% Jeb Bush
  • 11% Rand Paul
  •   8% Scott Walker
  •   6% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Rick Santorum
  •   3% Rick Perry
  •   1% John Kasich
  • 14% undecided

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus (Second Choice)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

2/11: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to 2016, if Hillary Clinton were to seek the Presidency and receive her party’s nomination, how would she fare against potential Republican opponents?  Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie still a formidable candidate?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist poll.

©istockphoto/MCCAIG

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

1/15: NBC News/Marist Poll: Are New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s Political Plans Bottlenecked?

January 15, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Has New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s image suffered nationally because of the controversy surrounding his administration’s role in the traffic tie-ups on the George Washington Bridge in September of last year?  According to this NBC News/Marist Poll, while 69% of Americans say the political uproar has not had any effect on their opinion of Christie, close to one in five — 18% — likes him less because of it.  Five percent like him more, and 8% are unsure.  Among Americans who have heard about the bridge controversy, 24% say their dislike for Christie has grown.

Click Here for Complete January 15, 2014 USA NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“The question is can Chris Christie weather this political storm, or is this another in a list of considerable hurdles he will need to overcome if he wants to make a run for the White House,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

By party:

  • Nearly seven in ten Republicans — 69% — report the political brouhaha has had no impact on how they view Christie.  However, 16% like him less.  Only 8% like him more, and 7% are unsure.
  • Among Democrats, 61% report the issue has had no impact on their opinion of Christie.  However, 28% say they like him less, and just 3% like him more.  Eight percent are unsure.
  • Looking at independent voters, 73% report the issue has had no effect on their impression of Christie.  Still, 17% like him less, and 5% like him more.  Five percent are unsure.

A plurality of Americans believes New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s assertion that he played no role in creating traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge for political retribution.  44% of adults nationally say Christie is mostly telling the truth that he had no knowledge of the events that led up to the traffic tie-ups.  However, a notable 33% report he is mostly not telling the truth, and an additional 23% are unsure.

Americans who have heard about the bridge controversy are more likely to think Christie is being honest.  A majority of these Americans — 52% — thinks Christie is telling the truth compared with 34% who believe he is not.  15% are unsure.

By party:

  • While 61% of Republicans think Christie is mostly telling the truth, 20% believe he is not being forthright.  19% are unsure.
  • Not surprisingly, a plurality of Democrats — 41% — says Christie is not telling the whole truth.  However, 34% report he is being honest with the public.  24% are unsure.
  • Nearly half of independent voters — 47% — think Christie is telling the truth while 31% say he is not.   23% are unsure.

Do Americans know that members of Christie’s staff have been implicated in creating these traffic jams?  Slightly more than seven in ten residents — 71% — have at least some knowledge of the political scandal.  This includes 39% of Americans who know a lot about the story and 32% who have some awareness of the controversy.  30% report they know nothing about the issue.  Do Americans think Governor Christie is a bully or a strong leader?  Nearly half — 47% — say he comes across as a strong leader while 27% describe him as a bully.  26% are unsure.

By party:

  • About seven in ten Republicans nationally — 71% — consider Christie to be a strong leader.  11% call him a bully, and 18% are unsure.
  • There is little consensus among Democrats.  38% say he is a bully while 36% think he comes across as a strong leader.  27% are unsure.
  • 47% of independent voters think Christie is a strong leader while 26% believe he is a bully.  27% are unsure.

Table: Has the George Washington Bridge Controversy Made You Like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie More or Less?

Table: Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Telling the Truth about the George Washington Bridge Controversy?

Table: Awareness of the George Washington Bridge Traffic Controversy

Table: Does New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Come Across as a Bully or Strong Leader?

No Clear Front-runner in Crowded GOP Field… One in Four Undecided

There has been much speculation about whether or not Christie will seek the Republican nomination for president in 2016.  How would Christie fare against his potential GOP opponents?

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 16% Chris Christie
  • 12% Paul Ryan
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   8% Jeb Bush
  •   7% Marco Rubio
  •   6% Rick Perry
  •   5% Rick Santorum
  •   5% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Scott Walker
  •   3% Bobby Jindal
  • 25% undecided 

When Marist last reported this question in December, Christie had the support of 18% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  Paul received the backing of 12% while Ryan — 11%, Cruz — 10%, and Bush — 10% followed closely behind.  Sarah Palin garnered 8%, and Rubio had the backing of 7%.  At the time, Walker and Santorum each received 4% while 3% supported Perry.  13%, then, were undecided.

How would the GOP contest look without Christie in the mix?  Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands without Governor Chris Christie:

  • 15% Paul Ryan
  • 11% Rand Paul
  • 11% Jeb Bush
  • 10% Marco Rubio
  •   7% Rick Santorum
  •   6% Ted Cruz
  •   6% Rick Perry
  •   5% Scott Walker
  •   4% Bobby Jindal
  • 26% undecided

“The Republican field for 2016 clearly lacks a front-runner with or without Chris Christie,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus without Chris Christie

Clinton Widens Lead over Christie in Hypothetical Contest

If Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie were to face off in the 2016 presidential election, Clinton would defeat Christie by double digits.  Half of registered voters — 50% — would support Clinton compared with 37% for Christie.  12% are undecided.  When Marist last reported this question in December, voters divided.  48% supported Clinton while 45% were behind Christie.  Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

  • Most Democrats — 90% — would support Clinton compared with 3% for Christie.  Seven percent are undecided.  Last month, 85% were for Clinton while Christie garnered 10%.  Five percent were undecided.
  • More than three in four Republicans — 78% — would cast their ballot for Christie compared with 16% for Clinton.  Six percent are undecided.  In December, 89% of Republicans supported Christie compared with 6% for Clinton.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • Independent voters divide.  40% would support Clinton, and 40% would back Christie.  19% are undecided.  When this question was previously reported, a majority — 52% — backed Clinton while 40% were for Christie.  Eight percent, then, were undecided.

There is a gender gap.  While a majority of women would support Clinton, men divide.  Among women, 56% back Clinton while 33% are for Christie.  11% are undecided.  Among men, 44% are for Clinton compared with 42% for Christie.  15% are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Half of Americans View Clinton Favorably… Christie Still Unknown to More than Four in Ten

50% of adults nationally have a favorable view of Clinton.  However, 38% have an unfavorable impression of her.  12% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  When it comes to Chris Christie, 28% of Americans have a favorable view of him while 30% have an unfavorable one.  A notable 42% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

How do Americans currently rate President Barack Obama?  Nearly half of residents — 48% — have an unfavorable impression of the president while 41% have a favorable one.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Looking at registered voters, there is no difference.  48% have an unfavorable view of President Obama while 41% have a favorable view of him.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In December, a slim majority of registered voters — 52% — had an unfavorable opinion of the president while 46% had a favorable one.  Three percent, at that time, had either never heard of Mr. Obama or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

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