5/1: IN: Trump Leads, Clinton and Sanders Close

In the quest for the Republican nomination, businessman Donald Trump, 49%, is ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 34%, by 15 points among likely Republican primary voters in Indiana.  Ohio Governor John Kasich trails far behind with 13%.  Trump has the advantage among many key demographic groups.  He especially outdistances his opponents among likely Republican primary voters who self-identify as moderate or conservative, those who are over 45, without a college education, or who are men.  Cruz does best among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves as very conservative.

59% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference report they strongly support their choice of candidate.  66% of Trump’s backers compared with 56% of Cruz’s supporters and 40% of those for Kasich say they are firmly committed to their candidate selection.

When it comes to the second choice of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, 39% select Kasich followed by Cruz, 31%, and Trump, 18%.

Last week, Cruz and Kasich announced they would team up to defeat Donald Trump in Indiana.  However, 63% of likely Republican primary voters say the alliance is not a factor in deciding their vote, including 63% of Trump’s supporters, 66% of Cruz’s backers, and 53% of likely GOP voters for Kasich.  37% say it is a factor, including 22% who say it is a major factor and 15% who report it is a minor factor.

58% of likely Republican primary voters say they disapprove of the deal between Cruz and Kasich to stop Trump at all costs and think it is further proof that the Republicans are trying to rig the game against Trump.  34% of likely GOP voters approve of the coalition to stop Trump at all costs.

Should the Republicans face a contested convention this summer, nearly two-thirds of likely Republican voters in Indiana, 64%, say that the candidate with the most votes should be the GOP nominee even if he does not receive a majority of delegates before the convention.  This includes 88% of likely Republican primary voters for Trump but also 42% of Cruz’s supporters and 29% of those who back Kasich.  29% of likely GOP voters believe if no one gets a majority, the delegates should select the person they think would be the best nominee, including 64% of Kasich’s supporters.

“After the Acela primary, there is an aura of inevitability surrounding the Trump and Clinton candidacies,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “In Indiana, Trump is positioned to corral all the delegates which will be a big prize toward winning the nomination outright.  Clinton and Sanders are more likely to divide the delegate pool which will do little to change the narrative on the Democratic side.”

Looking at the Democratic contest, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 50%, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 46%, are closely matched among likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana.  Clinton’s support is bolstered by likely Democratic primary voters who are 45 years of age or older among whom she receives 70%.  Sanders’ support is buoyed by likely Democratic primary voters who are under 45 years old, among whom he is supported by 70%.  He also does well among those who are first-time or independent voters.  While Clinton, 57%, outpaces Sanders, 39%, among women, Sanders, 55%, leads Clinton, 41%, among men.

71% of likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  71% of Clinton’s supporters and 70% of Sanders’ backers express a firm level of commitment to their choice of candidate.

In hypothetical general election contests, all three Republican candidates lead Clinton.   Sanders, however, is closely matched among registered voters statewide against Trump, Cruz, and Kasich.

A plurality of the Indiana electorate, 42%, considers Trump’s statements on the campaign trail to be frequently insulting and thinks that he has the wrong approach on many issues.  Included here are 73% of Democrats but only 38% of independents and 20% of Republicans.  26% say Trump’s manner and language are bothersome, but he raises important issues, and 21% believe Trump tells it like it is and has the right approach on many issues.  10% percent do not think any of these statements describe Trump’s manner.

Turning to the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Todd Young, 56%, outdistances Marlin Stutzman, 24%, among likely Republican primary voters in Indiana.  A notable 19% are undecided.

42% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  49% of Stutzman’s supporters, compared with 39% of Young’s backers, say they will not waver in their commitment to their candidate.

Indiana residents divide about the job performance of Governor Mike Pence.  42% of adults statewide, including 63% of likely Republican primary voters, approve of the job he is doing in office while 41% disapprove.  A notable 17% are unsure.

Looking at President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the Hoosier State, 42% of adults statewide, including 84% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of the president’s performance.  50% disapprove.

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Indiana

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Indiana (Adults, Registered Voters, and Potential Electorates)

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Indiana (Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters)

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Indiana (Likely Democratic Presidential Primary Voters)

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Senate Tables of Indiana (Likely Republican Primary Voters and Potential Republican Electorates)

Marist Poll Methodology for Indiana

Nature of the Sample for Indiana

4/24: PA: Trump and Clinton with Double-Digit Leads

In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination in Pennsylvania, businessman Donald Trump, 45%, outpaces Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 27%, by 18 points among likely Republican primary voters statewide.  Ohio Governor John Kasich follows with 24%.  Trump leads his rivals among many key demographic groups.  Of note, Trump and Cruz are competitive among white evangelical Christians and those who describe themselves as very conservative.  Trump and Kasich vie for likely GOP voters who are college graduates or moderates.

Six in ten Republican likely primary voters with a candidate preference, 60%, say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Among those who support Trump, 72% report they are firmly committed to their choice.  This compares with 52% of Cruz’s backers and 47% of Kasich’s supporters who express the same level of support.

Looking at the second choice candidate of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 40%, is the most mentioned followed by Cruz, 30%.  18% say Trump is their second choice candidate for the Republican nomination.

“Trump and Clinton are both positioned to win the popular vote,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For the Democrats, it’s all about delegate counts.  But, for the Republicans, the popular vote doesn’t guarantee a big chunk of the delegates at the convention.  Many will not be committed to a candidate after Tuesday and will need convincing.”

In the race for the Democratic nomination for president, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 55%, has a 15 point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 40%, among likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania.  Clinton does especially well among likely Democratic primary voters who are 45 years of age or older or are African American.  Sanders does best among first-time voters, those who are under 45 years old, or those who identify as very liberal.  While Clinton leads Sanders by 28 points among women, Sanders, 49%, and Clinton, 45%, are competitive among men.

Seven in ten likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference, 70%, say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Clinton’s supporters, 71%, and Sanders’ backers, 68%, report they will not waver in their commitment to their candidate.

In hypothetical general election contests, Clinton and Sanders have the advantage over their potential Republican rivals, with one exception.  When Clinton, 45%, and Kasich, 48%, are paired against each other, the two are competitive among Pennsylvania registered voters.  In each of these potential general election contests, Sanders outperforms Clinton against the Republicans.

On the statewide level, 45% of Pennsylvania adults approve of Governor Tom Wolf’s job performance.  40% disapprove, and 15% are unsure.  Looking at the approval rating of Senator Pat Toomey, 42% approve of how he is doing his job, 28% disapprove, and a notable 30% are unsure.

What effect, if any, will the controversy surrounding the confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, have on Toomey’s re-election bid in November?  If Toomey agrees with his Republican colleagues to deny Garland confirmation hearings, a plurality of registered voters, 45%, say it will make no difference to their vote.  But, more than one in three, 34%, reports they would be less inclined to support Toomey.  18% say they would be more likely to vote for him.  If Toomey disagrees with his Republican colleagues and wants to hold confirmation hearings now, a majority, 54%, reports it will not influence whom they will support for the U.S. Senate.  More than one in four voters, 26%, think it would make them more likely to cast their ballot for Toomey.  17% say it would make them less likely to do so.

Pennsylvania adults divide about President Obama’s job performance.  49% of residents, including 82% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of how the president is doing his job.  46% disapprove.

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Pennsylvania

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for Pennsylvania

Nature of the Sample for Pennsylvania

 

4/19: Majority Opposes Increased Numbers of Refugees, But…

A majority of Americans do not believe that the United States should allow more refugees into the country, according to an Exclusive Point Taken-Marist Poll, commissioned by WGBH Boston for its new late-night, multi-platform PBS debate series Point Taken.  However, about half of Americans think the United States has a moral obligation to aid refugees and do not think they pose a significant threat to the nation.  The issue at hand is the number of refugees allowed into the country.  Tolerance for allowing those seeking asylum has grown over the last 80 years, and today, millennials are among those who are most lenient.

The national survey was conducted by The Marist Poll in advance of this week’s Point Taken episode, airing Tuesday April 19, 2016 at 11pmET (check local listings) and streaming on pbs.org/pointtaken. The series is hosted by Carlos Watson, Emmy Award winning journalist and OZY Media co-founder and CEO.

A majority of Americans, 53%, think the United States should take in fewer refugees than it currently does while 35% report the nation should allow more refugees into the country.  40% of U.S. residents consider refugees to be a significant threat to the United States compared with 51% who disagree.  Among those who see refugees as a threat, more than two-thirds, 67%, perceive the nature of the threat to be terrorism as opposed to, economic, 19%, or cultural, 11%.

By about two to one, Millennials, 54%, are much more likely than members of any other generation to think more refugees should be allowed into the United States, and they are the least likely to consider refugees to be a threat.  Differences based on education are also present.  A majority of non-college graduates, 57%, think fewer refugees should be allowed into the country.  Residents with a college degree divide.  46% think fewer refugees should be allowed into the country while 44% believe more should be permitted.  And, by nearly two-to-one, those without a college education, 48%, are more likely than college graduates, 25%, to consider refugees to be a threat to the country.  Men, 46%, are also more likely than women, 34%, to say refugees are a threat to the nation.

“The issue of allowing refugees into this country is a complex one,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Americans are torn between what they feel should be done ethically and their concerns for security.”

“These results show the many and varied viewpoints Americans have.  Tonight’s Point Taken broadcast, which will include social media contributions, is a great opportunity to continue the dialogue,” says Denise DiIanni, series creator and Executive-in-Charge.

While a majority of Americans oppose opening the borders to more refugees, half of residents, 50%, think the United States is not legally but is morally required to take in refugees.  But, tolerance for permitting refugees into the United States has also increased since the late 1930’s.

A majority of U.S. residents, 53%, believe Syrian refugees should be encouraged or allowed to come to the United States.  Included here, are 25% who say we should welcome refugees even if the country needs to increase the level of immigrants allowed into the country and 28% who think the U.S. should allow refugees but do not support raising the quotas.  35% of residents think refuges should be kept out of the United States given the nation’s current conditions.  In a 1938 Roper/Fortune Survey, only 23% of Americans encouraged or wanted to allow political refugees from countries such as Germany and Austria to enter the United States, and of those, only 5% supported raising immigration quotas.

When asked the question of whether Syrian refugees should be temporarily banned from entering the United States or if the nation should continue its current policy toward these refugees, nearly half of residents today, 49%, favor the status quo.  43% support a temporary ban.

Millennials are more likely than their older cohorts to assert the United States has a moral obligation to take in refugees, 61%, to think we should encourage or allow refugees to come to the United States, 68%, and to believe the U.S. policy toward Syrian refugees should remain the same, 66%.  College graduates, 62%, and women, 58%, are more likely than non-college graduates, 44%, and men, 43%, to say the U.S. is morally required to allow refugees into the country.  Those with a college degree, 58%, and women, 56%, are also more likely than their counterparts to say Syrian refugees should not be temporarily banned form the country.

On the question of whether Syrian refugees should be encouraged or allowed to enter the United States, college graduates, 69%, are more likely than non-college graduates, 43%, to have this view.  Women, 57%, are more likely than men, 49%, to say refugees should enter the United States.

Six in ten Americans, 60%, say, if they were a member of the incoming Congress, they would vote against a bill to increase the number of Syrian refugees allowed to enter the United States.  33% would vote for such a bill.  However, tolerance has grown.  When the Roper/Fortune Survey asked a similar question about European refugees in 1939, 83% said they would not support such a bill for political refugees.

While millennials, 47%, college graduates, 43%, and women, 40%, are more likely than their counterparts to support such a bill, 48% of millennials, 50% of college graduates, 53% of women say they would vote against the legislation.

Complete April 19, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Release
 
Complete April 19, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 1: Gender, Race, Age, Education, Income) 
Complete April 19, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 2: Generation, Party ID, Ideology) 
Marist Poll Methodology 
Marist Poll Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables
 

4/16: NY: Trump with 29 Point Lead over Kasich

In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination, businessman Donald Trump, 54%, leads Ohio Governor John Kasich, 25%, by 29 points among likely Republican primary voters in New York State.  Texas Senator Ted Cruz receives 16% of the likely GOP electorate.  Trump maintains a commanding lead over his Republican rivals.  In the previous NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York, Trump was ahead of Kasich by 33 points.

“Donald Trump is well-positioned to carry New York handily and is likely to acquire a sizeable number of New York’s delegates, as a result,” says Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

 

64% of likely Republican voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  Seven in ten Trump supporters, 70%, say they will not waver in their commitment to him.

 Among likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 37%, is the most mentioned candidate as voters’ second choice.  Cruz follows with 30%, and Trump receives 14%.

 

Complete April 16, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of New York

 Complete April 16, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (Registered Voters)

 Complete April 16, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for New York

Nature of the Sample for New York 

4/13: MD: Trump Up 12 Points over Cruz… Clinton with Commanding Lead over Sanders

In Maryland, businessman Donald Trump has a 12 point lead over Texas Senator Ted Cruz among the likely Republican primary electorate.  On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a wide 22 point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters statewide.

Looking at the Republican contest, Trump receives 41% to 29% for Cruz and 24% for Ohio Governor John Kasich among likely Republican primary voters.

“If the front-runners maintain their leads, Trump and Clinton remain on the path to securing their respective party’s nomination,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “With two weeks to go to the Maryland primary, their rivals need to find a way to close the gap.”

Trump does best among likely Republican primary voters in Maryland who do not practice a religion, Tea Party supporters, earn less than $50,000 annually, or do not have a college degree.  Trump and Cruz tie among white evangelical Christians.  They are also competitive among those who practice a religion and women.  Also noteworthy, Kasich leads by double digits among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves as moderate.

58% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  When compared with Cruz’s supporters, 51%, and Kasich’s backers, 44%, a larger proportion of Trump’s supporters, 71%, report they are firmly committed to their candidate selection.

Among likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 35%, and Cruz, 34%, are the most mentioned second choice.  Trump receives 17%.

On the Democratic side, Clinton, 58%, outpaces Sanders, 36%, by 22 points among likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton leads Sanders among most demographic groups, but she does especially well among likely Democratic primary voters who are women and 45 years of age or older or African Americans.  Sanders has a double-digit lead over Clinton among those who are under 45 years old.

69% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  72% of Clinton’s supporters, compared with 65% of Sanders’ backers, report they strongly support their candidate of choice.

Turning to this fall’s general election, Clinton and Sanders both have large leads over their potential Republican rivals.  They have their greatest advantage when matched against Trump.

In Maryland’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, a majority of likely voters, 57%, are undecided. Kathy Szeliga, 20%, is ahead of Richard Douglas, 13%, and Chrys Kefalas, 9%, among likely Republican primary voters.  Only 28% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  36% somewhat support their selection, and 35% say they might vote differently.

In the Democratic contest for U.S. Senate, Chris Van Hollen, 44%, and Donna Edwards, 38%, are competitive among likely Democratic primary voters.  18% are undecided.  53% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Edwards’ supporters, 55%, and Van Hollen’s backers, 53%, say they strongly support their candidate.

On the issues, more than two-thirds of Maryland residents, 67%, including 68% of registered voters, agree with the change in state law which decriminalizes the possession of small amounts of marijuana.  75% of Democrats, 70% of independents, and even 53% of Republicans agree with the change in the law.

There is less consensus when it comes to legalizing betting on fantasy sports websites such as Fan Duel and Draft Kings.  40% of residents, including the same proportion of registered voters, support such a proposal while 43% oppose it.  17% are undecided.  While pluralities of Republicans, 48%, and Democrats, 44%, are against legalizing such behavior, a plurality of independents, 46%, support it.

A majority of Maryland adults, 59%, including the same proportion of registered voters, think the laws governing the sale of guns should be stricter.  14% say they should be less strict, and 24% report they should be kept as they are.  While most Democrats, 82%, support strengthening the laws governing the sale of firearms, a plurality of Maryland’s GOP, just 36%, believes these laws should be kept as they are.  A plurality of independents, 46%, think the laws should be stricter.

Both Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and President Barack Obama are highly regarded among residents statewide.  More than two-thirds of Maryland adults, 67%, approve of Governor Hogan’s job performance.  15% disapprove.  Looking at the job performance of President Obama, 62% of residents statewide, including 88% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of how the president is doing his job.  31% disapprove.

 Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Release of Maryland

 Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Tables of Maryland (Adults & Registered Voters)

 Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Tables of Maryland (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Tables of Maryland (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Senate Tables of Maryland (Likely Republican Primary Voters, Likely Democratic Primary Voters & Potential Electorates )

Marist Poll Methodology for Maryland

Nature of the Sample for Maryland

 



 

4/8: Obama Approval Rating at 50%, but Dissatisfaction with D.C. Looms

Despite increasingly improved perceptions about President Barack Obama’s job performance, registered voters nationally continue to express displeasure with how Congress is doing its job.  In fact, the proportion of voters who disapprove of how the Republicans are performing is at its highest point in more than two years.  Congressional Democrats fare somewhat better, but still, just a little more than one in three members of the national electorate approves of their job performance.  To compound matters, there is growing pessimism about the direction of the nation.  In fact, the proportion of U.S. residents who think the nation is moving in the wrong direction is at its highest point in more than 4 years.

“With scores like this it’s not surprising that Washington is a target of ridicule on the 2016 campaign trail,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

President Obama’s job approval rating has been inching upward since December of 2014 and currently stands at 50% among registered voters nationally.  46% disapprove of how he is doing his job.  When last reported in November, the electorate divided.  48% said they approved of the president’s job performance, and 48% did not.

Looking at the Republicans in Congress, 21% of registered voters approve of how they are doing their job.  73% disapprove.  While these ratings are little changed from the fall, the proportion of voters who disapprove of how the congressional GOP is doing its job is at its highest point in more than two years.  When it comes to the congressional Democrats, 36% approve of their job performance, but nearly six in ten, 59%, do not.  In November, those proportions were 38% and 55%, respectively.

68% of Americans think the nation is off course.  This is the largest proportion of residents who believe the country is moving in the wrong direction since November 2011.  At that time, 70% of Americans expressed dissatisfaction with the country’s trajectory.  When this question was last reported in the fall, 59% thought the country was moving in the wrong direction while 36% said it was moving in the right one.

Complete April 8, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

 

4/8: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Do Americans think the nation is moving on the right or the wrong track?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

4/7: Delegate Front-Runners, Clinton and Trump, Benefit from Each Other

Registered voters nationally are motivated more by dislike for the other candidate than positive feelings for their candidate of choice in a general election contest between the Democratic and Republican delegate leaders, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump.  In a hypothetical tossup between Clinton and Trump, Clinton, 50%, leads Trump, 41%, by 9 points among the national electorate.  While Trump’s support is identical to what he received in November’s McClatchy-Marist Poll, 41%, Clinton’s support has declined from 56%.

However, 53% of Clinton’s supporters say their vote is one of opposition to Trump and not in support of Clinton. Among Trump’s supporters, a similar pattern exists.  More than six in ten, 61%, report they choose Trump because they are against Clinton.

“What an odd place Clinton and Trump voters find themselves in this unprecedented election cycle,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “While front-runners typically bank on favorable views from their followers, Clinton and Trump candidacies are fueled by voters’ dislike of the alternative.”

When Clinton is matched against her other potential general election opponents, the contests become more competitive.  Clinton and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are tied, 47% to 47%, among registered voters nationally.  This contest has become tighter since the fall when Clinton, 53%, was ahead of Cruz, 43%, by 10 points.  Against Ohio Governor John Kasich, Clinton trails Kasich, 42% to 51%.  Support for Kasich has grown.  In the July McClatchy-Marist Poll, Clinton, 49%, had a double-digit lead over Kasich, 39%, among the national electorate.

In each of these three general election contests, a partisan divide exists.  However, when Trump and Clinton are matched, more than one in ten Republicans support Clinton, and independents divide.  When Kasich goes up against Clinton, more than one in ten Democrats back Kasich.  Among independent voters, Kasich outpaces Clinton by 22 points, and Cruz leads Clinton by 11 points.

A gender gap is also present.  Against Trump and Cruz, Clinton has a double-digit lead among women.  She is ahead of Trump by 24 points and Cruz by 12.  However, Clinton only has a 5 point edge over Kasich among this key voting group.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders runs better against Trump, Cruz, or Kasich than does Clinton.  Sanders’ greatest advantage is over Trump, 57% to 37%, among registered voters nationally.  In November, Sanders received 53% of the vote to 41% for Trump.

Here, a majority of Trump’s supporters, 52%, say they are voting for Trump while 44% say their vote is in opposition to Sanders.  Sanders’ supporters divide.  49% report their vote is an affirmation of Sanders while 48% say it is a ballot against Trump.

Looking at Sanders’ other potential Republican candidates, Sanders also bests Cruz, 53% to 41% and Kasich, 52% to 41%, among the national electorate, little changed from last November.

By party, most Democrats support Sanders while most Republicans support Trump, Cruz, or Kasich.  A notable 18% of Republicans, though, back Sanders in a hypothetical matchup against Trump.  Among independents, Sanders leads his potential GOP opponents.  He is ahead of Trump by 24 points among independents.  Against Cruz and Kasich, Sanders leads by 9 points and 8 points, respectively.

Does it matter if the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate wins the general election?  Registered voters nationally divide.  45% think their family will be economically better off if the Republican candidate is victorious.  41% have this view about a victory by the Democratic nominee.  When it comes to national security, 44% of the national electorate say the country will be safer if the Democrat wins.  The same proportion, 44%, reports the GOP will make the nation safer.  On both questions, a partisan divide exists with pluralities of independent voters saying the Republicans will improve the economy and national security.

Complete April 7, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

4/7: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Where does the race for the White House stand nationally?  When the Democratic and Republican front-runners, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump, are matched against each other, are their respective supporters voting for their candidate of choice or against his or her opponent?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

4/6: Sanders and Clinton Competitive Nationally… Will the Party Unify?

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are in a virtual dead heat in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination nationally.  Among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, just two points separate Sanders, 49%, and Clinton, 47%.

Sanders leads Clinton by two to one among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents who are under 45 years old.  Included here are 76% of those under 30, giving Sanders a 53 point lead over Clinton among this voting group.  Sanders also has a wide lead, about 30 points, over Clinton among Latino voters or independents.  He also does well among those who self-identify as very liberal or liberal.

Clinton outperforms Sanders by 26 points among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents who are 45 years of age or older or African American.  She has a 10 point lead over Sanders among Democrats.  Clinton and Sanders are competitive among both men and women as well Democrats who are white.

“The difference between support for Sanders and Clinton is generational,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Other distinctions blur when you account for a voter’s age.”

If Sanders wins the Democratic nomination, most of Clinton’s supporters, 79%, say they will back Sanders in the general election.  69% of Sanders’ supporters report they will back Clinton.

Complete April 6, 2016 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

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