11/18: Voters Pessimistic About Super Committee Deal

With the deadline nearing for Congressional Republicans and Democrats on the Super Committee to reach an agreement on how to reduce the federal budget deficit, most voters nationally are not confident that a deal will be reached.

Click Here for Complete Friday, November 18, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this national McClatchy-Marist Poll, 85% of registered voters are not very confident or not confident at all that an agreement will be reached.  13% express some degree of confidence, and 2% are unsure.

“Congress may ultimately act in the eleventh hour, but the clock is ticking,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Voters have even less confidence in the Super Committee than they have in Congress as a whole.”

By party:

• Regardless of party, confidence is lacking.  88% of independent voters, 84% of Republicans, and 82% of Democratic voters are not confident an agreement will be reached.

On the specifics of the Super Committee’s proposal:

• More than eight in ten registered voters — 81% — say major cuts to Social Security and Medicare should not be included in the deficit reduction proposal while 17% report they should be, and 2% are unsure.
• 59% of registered voters do not think tax increases on businesses should be included in the plan while 35% disagree, and 6% are unsure.  Here, there are partisan differences.  Although 71% of Republican voters and 63% of independent voters don’t want these inclusions, Democrats divide.  45% of Democrats want tax increases to be part of the proposal while the same proportion — 45% — does not.
• Looking at major cuts in defense spending, a slim majority — 51% — doesn’t think these should be part of the deficit reduction proposal.  45% think they should be, and 4% are unsure.  By party, 68% of Republicans and 54% of independent voters do not want to see these cuts rolled into the plan.  More than six in ten Democrats — 62% — would like them to be included.
• However, about two-thirds of voters — 67% — want tax increases on higher-income Americans to be in the proposal while three in ten — 30% — do not.  Three percent are unsure.  By party, 83% of Democrats, 64% of independents, and 53% of Republicans believe increased taxes on higher-income Americans should be part of the proposal to reduce the deficit.

Who will voters blame if an agreement is not reached?  There is enough blame to go around.  39% will point a finger at Congressional Republicans, 27% will blame Congressional Democrats, and 23% will hold both groups accountable.  Two percent won’t blame either, and 8% are unsure.

Table: Confidence in Super Committee to Reach Deficit Reduction Agreement

Table: Deficit Reduction Agreement: Cuts to Social Security and Medicare?

Table: Deficit Reduction Agreement: Increases in Taxes on Businesses?

Table: Deficit Reduction Agreement: Major Cuts in Defense Spending?

Table: Deficit Reduction Agreement: Increases in Taxes on Higher-Income Americans?

Table: Group Responsible if Deficit Reduction Agreement is Not Reached

Tax the Wealthiest Americans, Say More than Six in Ten

Nearly half of voters — 49% — support a so-called “millionaire’s tax” for individuals earning $200,000 or more and $250,000 or more for married couples.  43% oppose it, and 8% are unsure.

However, more voters — 61% — support a similar surcharge on Americans earning more than $1 million while 33% oppose such a federal surcharge, and 6% are unsure.

By party:

• 66% of Democrats and 51% of independent voters back such a tax on those earning at least $200,000.  Republicans disagree with 64% against the proposed surcharge.

• 77% of Democrats and 62% of independent voters back a federal surcharge on income of $1 million or more while a slim majority of Republicans — 51% — oppose such a tax.

Table:  Support or Oppose “Millionaire’s Tax” on Those Earning At Least $200,000

Table:  Support or Oppose “Millionaire’s Tax” on Those Earning $1 Million

Voters’ Take on a Flat Tax

The concept of a flat tax, a system which applies one tax rate to all income levels, has been much talked about lately.  What are voters’ views about such a tax?  When it comes to the effect on the wealthy, 38% say it will lower the taxes of those in this income group.  36% believe it will raise the amount of taxes the wealthy pay while 21% think this group will pay the same amount of taxes.  Five percent are unsure.

When it comes to the middle class, a plurality of voters — 43% — say a flat tax would result in the middle class paying about the same amount of taxes as they currently do.  37% report the middle class will shell out more tax dollars while 14% think the result will be lower taxes on the middle class, and 6% are unsure.

Looking at the impact on the poor, a majority of registered voters — 52% — say a flat tax rate would mean higher taxes for this group.  One in four — 25% — report the poor will pay the same amount of taxes while 18% think a flat tax will lower the taxes of the poor.  Five percent are unsure.

Many voters do not think the poor should be exempt from paying taxes.  Six in ten — 60% — believe this group should be taxed on what they earn while 37% say the poor should be exempt from paying taxes.  Three percent are unsure.

Key points:

• Nearly half of Democratic voters — 49% — think a flat tax rate will lower taxes for the wealthy while 45% of Republicans and 40% of independent voters say it will raise taxes for this group.
• Looking at the middle class, 46% of Democrats believe a flat tax will increase taxes for this group while 46% of Republicans and 43% of independents think the middle class will pay the same amount of taxes.
• Majorities of Democrats — 57% — and independent voters — 51% — and nearly half of Republicans — 48% — think a flat tax will raise taxes on the poor.
• On the overall issue of taxing the poor, 71% of Republicans and 62% of independent voters report the poor should pay taxes on what they earn.  However, Democrats divide.  A slim majority — 51% — say the poor should be exempt from taxes while 47% think the poor should pay taxes on what they earn.

Table: Impact of Flat Tax on the Wealthy

Table: Impact of Flat Tax on the Middle Class

Table: Impact of Flat Tax on the Poor

Table: Taxing the Poor

Lowest Approval Ratings for Congressional Republicans and Democrats

There’s bad news for the Republicans and Democrats in Congress.  Only 23% of voters approve of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing in office while 70% disapprove, and 7% are unsure.  This is the lowest approval rating achieved by Congressional Republicans.

In September, 26% gave them good marks compared with 67% who disapproved and 8% who were unsure.

Key points:

• Half of Republican voters — 50% — and 54% of Tea Party supporters disapprove of the job Congressional Republicans are doing.

It’s a similar story for Congressional Democrats who have also reached an all-time low.  28% of voters approve of the job they are doing in office while 65% disapprove, and 7% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s September survey, 30% thought Congressional Democrats were doing well while 63% disapproved, and 7% were unsure.

Key points:

• 58% of Democrats approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing in office.

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

11/17: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Do voters nationally think the Republicans and Democrats on the Congressional Super Committee will reach a deal to reduce the budget deficit?  What do voters want included in the proposal? And, who will the electorate blame if an agreement is not reached?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

10/31: First Lady Still Thought of Favorably by More than Six in Ten

When President Barack Obama hits the campaign trail, it probably wouldn’t hurt to bring his wife along.  63% of registered voters nationally have a positive impression of First Lady Michelle Obama.  21%, however, have an unfavorable view of Mrs. Obama, and 16% are unsure how to rate her.

Click Here for Complete October 31, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

Little has changed since Marist last reported this question in May.  At that time, 66% thought highly of Michelle Obama, 17% had a less than stellar opinion of her, and 17% were unsure.

Most Democrats — 85% — and nearly six in ten independent voters — 58% — think well of Michelle Obama.  Even 42% of Republicans share this view.

Table: Michelle Obama Favorability

Table: Michelle Obama Favorability Over Time

Marist Poll Methodology

9/22: Voters Divide About Obama’s Handling of the War in Afghanistan

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has hit a new low, and voters remain dissatisfied with his handling of the economy.  And, now, there is also increased dissatisfaction with how the president is handling the war in Afghanistan.

Click Here for Complete September 22, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this Marist Poll, 48% of registered voters nationally disapprove of how the president is dealing with the situation in Afghanistan while 44% approve.  Seven percent are unsure.

When Marist last reported this question in June, a majority of registered voters — 53% — approved of how Mr. Obama was handling the conflict while 39% disapproved.  Eight percent, at the time, were unsure.

The change has occurred among Republican and independent voters.

By party:

• Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters — 65% — and a majority of independents — 56% — disapprove of the way the president is dealing with the war in Afghanistan.  In June, those proportions were 53%, and 41%, respectively.
• Among Democratic voters, 67% approve of how the President Obama is handling the situation while a similar proportion — 70% — did so a few months ago.

Voters also divide about how the President is handling the situation in Libya.  42% approve of the way he is dealing with it, and 42% disapprove.  16% are unsure.  In June, 44% applauded the president on the issue while 40% thought his approach was flawed.  16% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Handling the War in Afghanistan

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Situation in Libya

Marist Poll Methodology

9/21: Nearly Half Plan to Vote Against Obama, But Is There a Winner in the GOP Field?

President Barack Obama has his work cut out for him on the campaign trail.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, 49% of registered voters nationally say they definitely plan to vote against the president in next year’s election.  36% say they will cast their ballot for Mr. Obama, and 15% are unsure.  This is the highest proportion of voters since November 2010 who say they don’t think they will back the president in his re-election bid.  At that time, 48% said they would definitely vote against him.

Click Here for Complete September 21, 2011 USA McClatchy Poll Release and Tables

When McClatchy-Marist previously reported this question in August, 40% thought they would definitely vote against President Obama, 40% believed they would definitely vote for him, and a notable one in five — 20% — were unsure.

“On the one hand, President Obama’s re-election numbers are very low.  On the other hand, no GOP potential opponent has stepped up to the plate and demonstrated sufficient electoral power to beat him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

By party:

• A majority of independent voters — 53% — say they will not support the president, 28% believe they will, and 20% are unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of independents who say they definitely will not vote for Mr. Obama.  In August, those proportions stood at 40%, 35%, and 25%, respectively.
• Most Republicans — 89% — plan to back someone else.  Last month, 77% reported the same.
• Little has changed among Democrats.  70% say they will cast their ballot for the president while 69% shared these views in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.

There has also been an increase in the proportion of registered voters who believe, regardless of who they support, the Republican challenger will defeat President Obama in next year’s election.  A majority of the national electorate — 52% — says the GOP candidate will be victorious, 38% believe the president will be re-elected, and one in ten — 10% — is undecided.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in June, voters divided.  44% said Mr. Obama will be re-elected to another four years in office while 42% reported the Republican candidate will claim the White House.  15%, at that time, were undecided.

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012 (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Presidential Prediction

Guiliani Strongest GOPer Against Obama

Despite weak re-election numbers, President Obama either leads or is competitive with most of his Republican challengers.  There is one exception, unannounced candidate former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

• Giuliani receives 49% to Obama’s 42% among registered voters.  Nine percent are undecided.  In August, 48% backed the president, 43% supported Giuliani, and 9% were undecided.

Key points:

o   A slim majority of independent voters — 51% — supports Giuliani while only 37% throw their support behind Obama.  13% are undecided.

• President Obama is neck and neck with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  46% say they are for Obama while 44% report they back Romney.  One in ten — 10% — is undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 46% supported Obama, 41% tossed their support behind Romney, and 13%, at the time, were undecided.

Key points:

o   Among independent voters, 44% are behind Romney, 40% back the president, and 16% are undecided.  In August, the president received the support of 41% of independents to Romney’s 35%.  23% were undecided.

• When up against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, 49% of voters say they are for Obama while 44% rally for the unannounced Palin.  Six percent are undecided.  However, this is the first time that Obama has fallen below 50% in this hypothetical scenario.  And, the president has lost ground since the last time McClatchy-Marist reported this question.  In August, a majority — 56% — tossed their support behind Obama while 35% backed Palin.  Nine percent, at the time, were undecided.

Key points:

o   Among independent voters, 47% tout Palin while 43% are behind Obama.  In August, 48% backed the president while 42% were for Palin.

o   Palin has gained some support within her Republican base.  81% now say they are for Palin compared with 60% last month.

o   87% of voters who support the Tea Party rally behind Palin compared with 70% last month.

• Obama’s lead over Texas Governor Rick Perry has shrunk.  50% of voters support Obama while 41% are for Perry, a nine percentage point lead for the president.  Nine percent are undecided.  Last month, Obama outpaced Perry by 19 percentage points, 52% to 33%.  14% were undecided.

Key points:

o   Perry has made some in-roads with independent voters.  They now divide.  43% support Obama, and 43% are behind Perry.  13% are undecided.  In August, 49% of independents backed Obama and 30% supported Perry.  22% were undecided.

o   Perry has also gained the support of more Republicans.  87% now support him compared with 74% last month.

o   84% of Tea Party supporters are for Perry.  69% had this view in August.

• 53% of voters support Obama while 40% are for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.  Seven percent are undecided.  Similar proportions shared these views in August when Obama garnered the support of 52%.  35% were for Bachmann, and 13% were undecided.

Key points:

o   Bachmann has gained some ground within her Republican base.  86% now back her while 73% did so in August.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann (Over Time)

Perry Leads Republican Contenders

In the quest for the Republican nomination, Texas Governor Rick Perry has an eight percentage point advantage over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

• 30% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
• 22% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• 12% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
• 7% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
• 6% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
• 5% for businessman Herman Cain
• 2% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
• 1% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
• 15% are undecided

But, how firmly are Republicans and Republican leaning independents in their candidates’ camp?  Three in ten — 30% — report they strongly support their choice of candidate, nearly four in ten — 39% — say they somewhat support their candidate, and 31% think they might vote differently.

The top two candidates — Rick Perry and Mitt Romney — share similar intensity of support from their backers.  30% of GOP voters who back Perry firmly support him while 26% of those who are behind Romney say the same.

The story changes for the Republican field when two prominent Republicans come into play.  If Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin were to announce their candidacies, here is how the contest stands among Republicans and Republican leaning independents:

• 20% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
• 14% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
• 13% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• 13% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
• 6% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
• 6% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
• 6% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
• 4% for businessman Herman Cain
• 2% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
• 2% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
• 14% are undecided

However, 72% of Republicans and Republican leaning independent voters do not want Palin to seek the office, 24% do, and 4% are unsure.

Giuliani fares somewhat better, but nearly six in ten — 58% — do not want him to enter the race either.  32% would like to see him step back onto the national stage, and 10% are unsure.

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Table: Intensity of Support

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary (with Giuliani and Palin)

Table: Sarah Palin 2012 Presidential Run

Table: Rudy Giuliani 2012 Presidential Run

Shared Values Tops List of Candidates’ Qualities

More than one-third of Republicans and Republican leaning independents — 35% — say it’s most important that a Republican presidential candidate share their values.  26% want a candidate who has the experience to govern, and 20% prefer a candidate who is closest to them on the issues.  The ability to defeat President Obama is most important to 17%, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate

Candidates’ Tea Party Backing Not Top of Mind for Seven in Ten Republicans

How important is it that a Republican candidate has the support of the Tea Party?  70% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents report it makes no difference to their vote.  More than one in five — 22% — say it makes them more likely to vote for a candidate while only 8% think it makes them less likely to vote for a candidate.

The proportion of registered voters who are Tea Party supporters has changed little.  27% either strongly support or support the Tea Party while 64% do not.  Among those that support the Tea Party, 8% strongly support the movement, and 19% support it.  Nine percent are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 29% supported the Tea Party movement, 61% did not, and 9% were unsure.

Table: Importance of Tea Party Backing of Republican Presidential Candidate

Table: Tea Party Supporters

Table: Tea Party Supporters Over Time

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

9/20: McClatchy-Marist Poll

What are President Barack Obama’s re-election chances?  Is there a Republican in the field who can defeat him next year?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

9/20: 39% Approval Rating for Obama, Lowest of Presidency

President Barack Obama faces a litany of bad news.  The president’s job approval rating, his favorability, and his rating on the economy have hit all-time lows.  To compound matters, three in four Americans still believe the nation is in a recession and the proportion who thinks the country is moving in the wrong direction is at its highest point in more than a decade.

Click Here for Complete September 20^th, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, the president’s approval rating is at 39% among registered voters nationally, an all-time low for Mr. Obama.  For the first time a majority — 52% — disapproves of the job he is doing in office, and 9% are unsure.

“President Obama needs to reboot his presidency,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although numbers like these typically spell doom for an incumbent’s re-election prospects, the Republicans in Congress and eventually his GOP opponent could still provide Obama with running room.”

President Obama’s current approval rating is his lowest since last December when 42% of voters thought his performance fell short.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in its August 9^th survey, voters divided about how the president was performing in office.  44% of the national electorate approved while 46% disapproved.  10%, at the time, were unsure.

By party:

• 32% of independent voters now approve of the president’s job performance, 57% disapprove, and 11% are unsure.  Last month, 38% of independents thought highly of the president’s performance, 46% disapproved of it, and 16% were unsure.
• 71% of Democrats approve of Mr. Obama’s job performance while 74% did so in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.
• Among Republicans, most voters still disapprove of how the president is doing in his post.  87% have this view now compared with 83% who did so last month.

Fewer voters now have a favorable impression of President Obama.  46% view him favorably while 48% perceive him unfavorably.  Five percent are unsure.  President Obama’s current favorability rating is his lowest since taking office.  His previous low occurred last November when 47% of the electorate thought well of him.

In McClatchy-Marist’s August survey, a slim majority — 52% — felt positively about the president while 41% had a less than stellar view of him.  Eight percent, at the time, were unsure.

By party:

• There has been a ten percentage point change among independent voters and Republican voters. 40% of independent voters have a favorable impression of the president while 50% shared this view last month.  Among Republican voters, 87% have an unfavorable view of Mr. Obama while 77% thought this way in August.
• There has been little change among Democratic voters.  80% think well of the president compared with 78% in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.

Do voters approve of how the president is handling the economy?  Just 33% of registered voters approve of how he is dealing with the nation’s tumultuous financial situation while more than six in ten — 61% — disapprove.  Six percent are unsure.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in June, 37% approved of the president’s approach, 58% disapproved, and 5% were unsure.

By party:

• 69% of independent voters disapprove of how the president is handling the country’s economy.  In June, 60% had this view.
• Among Democrats, 58% give the president high marks on his handling of the economy.  63% did so three months ago.
• Looking at Republicans, there has been no change.  Most — 91% — disapprove of how the president is tackling the economy.  The same proportion — 91% — had this opinion in June.

However, many voters still don’t believe the president is responsible for the nation’s current economic climate.  Six in ten — 60% — think Mr. Obama inherited the current economic conditions while 34% report they are a result of his own policies.  Six percent are unsure.

In McClatchy-Marist’s August survey, 59% thought President Obama was handed the nation’s economic crisis while 33% said his policies contributed to them.  Eight percent, at the time, were unsure.

Key points:

• Three in four Americans — 75% — think the country is in a recession, 22% do not, and 3% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question since July when 75%, 20%, and 5%, respectively, had these views.
• 61% of Americans say that, when thinking about the future of the U.S. economy, the worst is still to come.  This is down from 68% last month.  35% currently believe the worst is behind us, and 3% are unsure.  In August, the proportions stood at 27% and 6%, respectively.

o   Among registered voters, 61% report the worst is yet to come, 37% believe the worst is over, and 2% are unsure.

–   Democrats have flipped on this question.  A majority of Democrats — 56% — say brighter economic days are ahead.  Last month, the opposite was the case.  At that time, a majority — 57% — reported the worst was still ahead.

–   Fewer independent voters are pessimistic.  66% say there is more bad economic news to come, down slightly from 71% in August.

–   78% of GOP voters say there are more hard times on the economic front.  75% held this opinion last month.

Overall, Americans are pessimistic about the direction of the country.  73% say the nation is headed in the wrong direction, 22% believe it is moving in the right one, and 5% are unsure.  This is the highest proportion of Americans in more than a decade to think the nation needs its course corrected.  Last month, 70% of the population reported America was on the wrong track, 21% said it was on the right one, and 10% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy (Over Time)

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited Over Time

Table: U.S. in a Recession

Table: U.S. in a Recession Over Time

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse?

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse? (Over Time)

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Over Time)

Obama’s Jobs Plan Doesn’t Go Far Enough, Say More Than Six in Ten Americans

More than three quarters of U.S. residents — 77% — doubt unemployment will improve in the next year.  Although a slim majority of Americans — 51% — believes President Barack Obama’s proposal to create jobs will do more good than harm, more than six in ten residents nationally — 63% — don’t believe the president’s proposal goes far enough to improve the nation’s jobs picture.  71% want the Republicans in Congress to either pass the president’s proposed jobs plan or push the bill through with revisions.

Key points:

• 63% of U.S. residents think the president’s jobs plan does not go far enough, 18% say it goes too far, and 19% are unsure.

o   Among registered voters:

–   78% of Democrats and 59% of independent voters think the proposal does not go far enough.   Even a majority of Republicans — 54% — believes the president’s plan should do more.

• Only 23% of residents think unemployment will be lower this time next year.  77% think it will either increase or stay about the same as it is now.  This includes 32% who report it will be higher and 45% who believe there will be no change.

o   Among registered voters:

–   23% of voters say unemployment will be lower.  31% think it will be higher, and 46% believe it will be the same as it is now.

–   Twice as many Democrats than Republicans – 17% – or independents — 17% — believe unemployment will decline in the next year.  However, even among Democrats, only 35% think that will be the case.

• 51% of American adults think Mr. Obama’s plan will do more good than harm.  38% report it will do more harm than good, and only 1% says it will not make a difference.  11% are unsure.

o   Among registered voters:

–   Half of voters — 50% — believe the president’s plan to create more jobs will do more good than harm.  39% say it will do more harm than good, and 1% thinks it will not make a difference.  Nine percent are unsure.

–   Independent voters are less decisive on this question.  45% say the plan will have more of a positive effect while 40% think it will have more of a negative one.

–   Not surprisingly, 82% of Democrats report the president’s plan will do more good while 74% of Republicans believe it will do more harm.

• Most Americans want the Republicans in Congress to pass President Obama’s jobs creation plan in some form.  Nearly four in ten U.S. residents — 38% — want them to push the plan through as it stands.  33% want it passed with revisions, and 20% do not want them to pass President Obama’s proposal at all.  Nine percent are unsure.

o   Looking at registered voters:

–   37% of registered voters want the Republicans in Congress to pass the president’s plan in its current form.  34% call for its passage with revisions, and 21% do not want it passed.  Eight percent are unsure.

–   Nearly six in ten Democrats – 59% — want the jobs creation bill passed in its present form.

–   Republicans divide.  41% think the Congressional GOP should pass the bill with amendments while 40% don’t want the bill passed at all.

–   There is less of a consensus among independent voters.  39% want the Republicans to pass it with revisions, 35% want the president’s jobs plan to be passed as it was proposed, but only 18% do not want it passed at all.

• Eight percent of adults nationally say they have already contacted their representative in Congress about President Obama’s jobs plan while 9% say it is very likely they will do the same.  14% believe it is likely they will reach out to their representative, 30% say it is not very likely, and 38% report it is not likely at all they will contact their representative about President Obama’s proposal.
• 45% of U.S. residents trust the president more to create jobs while 41% place more faith in the Republicans in Congress.  14% are unsure.

o   Among registered voters:

–   46% of the electorate has more trust in the president to turn the jobs picture around while 41% have more confidence in the Republicans in Congress.  13% are unsure.

–   Democrats – 80% — align more with the president on this question while Republicans – 78% — align more with the Republicans in Congress.  Independent voters divide.  41% trust Congressional Republicans to create more jobs while 39% put their faith in President Obama.  A notable 20% are unsure.

Table: Does President Obama’s Jobs Plan Go Too Far or Not Far Enough?

Table: The Status of Unemployment Next Year

Table: Impact of President Obama’s Proposal to Create Jobs

Table: Should Republicans in Congress Pass President Obama’s Jobs Plan?

Table: Likelihood of Contacting Elected Official about Jobs Plan

Table: Who Do You Trust More to Create Jobs, President Obama or the Republicans in Congress?

Voters Dissatisfied with Congress’ Performance

President Obama isn’t the only one who fares poorly in the court of public opinion.  Many registered voters aren’t happy with the job performances of the Republicans or Democrats in Congress.

Key points:

• About two-thirds of voters — 67% — disapprove of how the Republicans in Congress are doing in office.  26% approve, and 8% are unsure.  There has been a slight bump in the proportion of voters who are dissatisfied with Congressional Republicans.  Last month, 62% disapproved of their performance, 27% approved, and 11% were unsure.
• There is also increased displeasure with the Democrats in Congress.  Currently, more than six in ten registered voters nationally — 63% — disapprove of how these elected officials are doing in office while 30% approve.  Only 7% are unsure.  In August, 55% gave these Democrats a thumbs-down while 35% applauded their performance.  11%, at the time, were unsure.

By party:

• Independent voters also play a key role here.

o   There has also been an increase in the proportion of independents who disapprove of how Republicans are performing in Congress.  71% currently disapprove while 64% thought this way last month.

o   71% of independent voters disapprove of the job of Congressional Democrats.  In August, 59% shared this opinion.

• Even 43% of Republicans disapprove of how members of their own party are performing on Capitol Hill.
• Among Democrats, about one-third — 33% — shake their heads in disapproval at their fellow Democrats in Congress.

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Split Decision on Obama’s Ideology

45% of registered voters believe the president’s ideology is about right while 41% say he is too liberal.  Seven percent believe he is too conservative, and 6% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s August survey, 48% thought the president was positioned about right ideologically.  36% saw him as too liberal, 7% believed him to be too conservative, and 8% were unsure.

More voters, however, still think the president is positioned about right ideologically than either the Republicans or Democrats in Congress.

By party:

• Looking at the Democrats in Congress, 34% say they are ideologically on the mark.  45% report they are too liberal, 13% perceive them as too conservative, and 8% are unsure.  Last month, those proportions were 36%, 42%, 12%, and 10%, respectively.
• Looking at Congressional Republicans, 32% of voters view them as ideologically about right.  44% say they are too conservative, and 16% believe they are too liberal.  Eight percent are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 31% of the national electorate thought the ideology of Republican lawmakers was about right, 41% saw them as too conservative, 17% perceived them as too liberal, and 11% were unsure.

Table: President Obama’s Ideology

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Ideology

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Ideology

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

9/19: McClatchy-Marist Poll

President Barack Obama faces some bad news.  His approval rating is at its lowest point, and those who think the nation is moving in the wrong direction is at its highest point in more than a decade.  But, what do Americans think of the president’s plan to create jobs? Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

8/10: Obama’s Re-Election Prospects: Voters Divide

President Barack Obama asserts that change doesn’t occur overnight.  But, will registered voters nationwide give him the opportunity to fulfill his promise during a second term?  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, voters divide.  Four in ten — 40% — say they will definitely vote for the president next year while 40% think they will definitely vote against him.  A notable one in five — 20% — is unsure.

Click Here for Complete August 10^th, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in June, 43% of registered voters thought they would definitely vote against President Obama while 36% said they would definitely vote for him.  21%, at the time, were unsure.

“Voters nationally continue to be mixed about President Obama’s re-election prospects,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The difference occurs when he is matched against specific GOP wannabes.  Here, he has the edge against a host of possible challengers.”

Although 40% of independent voters report they plan to vote against President Obama next year, more than one-third of independents — 35% — currently plan to vote for the president, and a notable 25% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, only 29% of independents thought they would back the president while 43% planned to vote for another candidate.  28%, at the time, were unsure.

There has been little change among Democrats.  69% report they will support President Obama, 14% will not, and 16% are unsure.  In June, those proportions stood at 70%, 10%, and 20%, respectively.  Among Republican voters nationally, 7% plan to vote for the president.   77% say they will cast their ballot for another candidate, and 16% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, only 4% of GOP voters reported Mr. Obama would receive their vote while 85% said they were not planning to back the president.  10%, then, were unsure.

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012 (Over Time)

Obama Leads GOP Challengers … Majority Support Against Bachmann, Perry, & Palin

Regardless of whether or not voters plan to cast their ballot for the president next year, Mr. Obama fares well against most potential Republican challengers.  In fact, the president has either majority support or his backing has remained consistent since McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey in June.

When paired against leading Republican challengers, here is how the contests stand:

• President Obama receives 46% of registered voters’ support to 41% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  13% are undecided.  In June, 46% backed Obama while 42% rallied for Romney.  11%, at the time, were undecided.
• When the president goes head-to-head with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 48% say they are for Obama while 43% are behind Giuliani.  Nine percent are undecided.  Little has changed on this question since June when 48% backed Obama, 41% touted Giuliani, and 12% were undecided.
• President Obama has a 13 percentage point lead over former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.  Nearly half — 49% — support the president while 36% throw their support behind Pawlenty.  15% are undecided.  In June, 47% supported the president, about one-third — 33% — backed Pawlenty, and one in five — 20% — was undecided.
• When matched against Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, the president receives majority support.  52% rally behind the president while 35% are in Bachmann’s corner.  13% are undecided.  A couple of months ago, 49% backed Obama, 37% were behind Bachmann, and 14% were undecided.
• The president has a 19 percentage point lead over Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Here, 52% support the president, 33% are behind Perry, and 14% are undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 48% said they would vote for Obama while 39% reported they would cast their ballot for Perry.  13%, at the time, were undecided.
• President Obama receives the greatest support when up against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  56% support the president while 35% are in Palin’s camp.  Nine percent are undecided.  In June, 56% gave their endorsement to Obama, 30% touted Palin, and 14% were undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Pawlenty

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)

Romney, Perry Lead Pack of GOP Contenders

Is there a likely Republican candidate to face-off against President Barack Obama in next year’s general election?  Although Mitt Romney and Rick Perry top the list of potential candidates, they each only receive support from about one in five Republican primary voters.

Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

• 21% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• 18% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
• 10% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
• 9% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
• 8% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
• 6% for businessman Herman Cain
• 3% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
• 3% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
• 2% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
• 2% for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
• 2% for former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
• 2% for former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer
• 1% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
• Less than 1% for Political Activist Fred Karger
• 14% are undecided

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Previous Survey Results for the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

8/9: McClatchy-Marist Poll

As speculation grows about a possible presidential run by Texas Governor Rick Perry, what are his electoral chances when matched against other potential Republican candidates and President Barack Obama?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

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