7/17: New Hampshire 2016 Could Be Swing State

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in a close contest against potential GOP rival, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in a 2016 general election matchup in New Hampshire.  Clinton has single-digit leads against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  She has a wider lead over Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.  But, only against Cruz is Clinton supported by more than 50% of New Hampshire voters.  Clinton does better than each of her potential opponents among independent voters.  The gender gap in all of these matchups is wide.

Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll New Hampshire Release and Tables

Clinton is well liked by a majority of New Hampshire residents owing to her strong standing among women.  Vice President Biden has a higher negative rating than positive score among residents in the state.

New Hampshire residents give mixed reviews to Republicans Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker.  The ratings for Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz are all upside down with more residents viewing them negatively than positively.

The morning line for the first-in-the-nation presidential primary has Hillary Clinton the overwhelming choice of Democrats over Joe Biden.  Both Clinton and Biden are popular among most Democrats in the state.

On the Republican side, there is no clear choice among the potential 2016 New Hampshire Primary electorate for their party’s nominee.  More than one in five GOP’ers are undecided, and only Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush have low double-digit support.  Each potential GOP contender is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by Republicans in the state.  Rand Paul is the most popular among GOP voters.

“New Hampshire always gets a lot of attention because of its status as the first-in-the-nation primary and 2016 will be no exception,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “It may be a frequent stopping off point for the general election, as well.”

Poll Points

• Democrat Hillary Clinton is in a competitive contest against potential GOP rival Rand Paul, 46% to 43%.  She has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio, 47% to 42%, in each instance.  Clinton does better against Scott Walker, 48% to 39%, and Ted Cruz, 51% to 38%.
• Clinton is boosted by her support among independent voters and is backed by the majority of women in each matchup.
• Statewide, 53%, of residents have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton including 60% of women.  42% of state residents have an unfavorable opinion of her.  Biden is viewed positively by 39% of New Hampshire residents, but 48% have a negative opinion of him.
• Residents in the state divide about how they view several of the potential GOP candidates:  Marco Rubio who has a 31% positive rating and a 28% negative score; Rand Paul who receives a favorable rating of 39% and an unfavorable score of 38%; and Scott Walker, with whom voters are least familiar, is liked by 24% of residents and disliked by 23%.
• Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz all have ratings that are upside down.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Frontrunner

• Hillary Clinton outpaces Joe Biden 74% to 18% among the potential New Hampshire Democratic Primary electorate for 2016.
• Most Democrats in the state, 94%, have a positive opinion of Clinton.  Just 4% view her negatively.  Joe Biden is also liked by most New Hampshire Democrats.  79% have a favorable view of him, and 14% have an unfavorable opinion of him.

GOP:  No Pace Horse

• 22% of the potential New Hampshire Republican Primary electorate are undecided in their preference for a 2016 GOP presidential nominee.  Paul at 14%, Christie at 13%, and Bush at 10% are the only potential candidates who have double-digit support.
• The contest is no clearer when the potential Republican electorate is asked for a second choice.  Rubio is the backup pick of 16%, Bush garners 13%, Christie and Paul each attract 12%, and Ryan is the second choice of 10%.
• 71% of state Republicans have a positive opinion of Rand Paul and only 15% have a negative impression of him.  Although each of the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among New Hampshire Republicans, Paul has the highest favorability rating.  A majority of state Republicans like Bush, 65%, Rubio, 58%, and Christie, 52%.  50% have a positive view of Cruz and Walker.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/17: Iowa 2016: Rand Paul and Chris Christie Tossup with Hillary Clinton

Looking ahead to 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the odds on favorite against Vice President Joe Biden among Iowa Democrats for her party’s nomination.  But, she would find a general election matchup against either Kentucky Senator Rand Paul or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie very competitive.  Clinton edges former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and has an early lead over Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.  There is a wide gender gap in these matchups.  Although each of the potential Republican candidates has a more positive than negative rating with GOP voters, all but Paul and Rubio are upside down when it comes to Iowa residents’ impressions of the Republican candidates.

Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Iowa Release and Tables

But, first things first, one in five 2016 potential Republican caucus goers are unsure who they support for their presidential nominee, and no single potential candidate has broken out of the pack.  Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan have low double-digit support among potential Republican caucus attendees in the state.

On the Democratic side, seven in ten support Clinton over Biden.  Even though Clinton is more popular, both receive positive scores from most Democrats.  Clinton is viewed favorably by a majority of Iowans.  Not so for Biden whose negatives among state residents exceed his positives, overall.

“In a state Obama carried twice, Hillary Clinton would find Rand Paul and Chris Christie formidable opponents in the battle for Iowa’s six electoral votes,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The contest narrows in these two matchups because Paul and Christie do better with independent voters than do the other Republicans.”

Poll Points

• Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is closely matched against potential GOP rivals Rand Paul, 45% to 45%, and Chris Christie, 44% to 43%, among Iowa’s registered voters.  Clinton has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, 46% to 42%.
• In these contests, Clinton and each of the potential Republican contenders, Paul, Christie, and Bush, are competitive among independents.
• Clinton is ahead of Marco Rubio, 49% to 40%; Ted Cruz, 49% to 37%; and Scott Walker, 50% to 37%.
• Regardless of the potential GOP opponent against Clinton, there is a wide gender gap.
• A majority of Iowans, 52%, have a positive impression of Hillary Clinton, and 42% have a negative view of her.  In contrast, more state residents, 48%, have an unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden, and 39% have a favorable one.
• Rand Paul has a 38% favorable and a 36% unfavorable rating, and Marco Rubio has a 30% favorable and a 28% unfavorable score.  They are the only two Republicans who are not viewed more negatively than positively by Iowans.
• Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush have higher negative scores than positive.

GOP:  No Leader of the Pack

• 20% of the potential Republican electorate in Iowa are undecided about their choice for a 2016 GOP nominee.  Bush at 12%, Paul at 12%, and Ryan at 11% are the only potential candidates in double-digits.
• The contest hardly clarifies when potential Republican caucus goers are asked their second choice.  Bush at 12%, Santorum, Ryan, and Perry each at 11%, and Paul at 10% are the only potential candidates who attract double-digit support as a second choice.
• All the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among Iowa Republicans.  Rand Paul is liked best by Iowa Republicans.  66% of Republicans have a positive view of him, and only 18% have a negative impression of him.  A majority of state Republicans also have a favorable view of Bush, 63%, and Rubio, 57%.  50% have a positive impression of Christie.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Front-runner

• Hillary Clinton receives the support of 70% of the potential Democratic electorate compared with 20% for Joe Biden.
• Most Democrats in the state, 89%, have a favorable impression of Clinton.  Only 6% view her unfavorably.  Joe Biden is also popular among Iowa Democrats.  72% view him positively, and just 18% see him in a negative light.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/16: New Hampshire Election 2014 Gender Gap Drives Contest for U.S. Senate

Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads potential Republican nominee Scott Brown by eight points in her bid to be re-elected to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire.  Shaheen is popular among a majority of Granite State residents, whereas, Brown is more polarized.  But, it depends who you ask.  There is a wide gender gap that is defining this matchup.  Brown currently has a wide lead over his GOP rivals for the state’s Republican primary in September.  A majority of state residents approve of the job incumbent Governor Maggie Hassan is doing.  Her performance rating is strong among her Democratic base, as well as among women, and independent voters.  President Obama is not popular in the state and neither is the Affordable Care Act.

Click Here for Complete July 16, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll New Hampshire Release and Tables

“At this point, Scott Brown is not facing a high hurdle for the GOP nomination to oppose incumbent Senator Shaheen,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, Shaheen presents a bigger obstacle in his attempt to win this seat for the Republicans in November.”

Poll Points

• 50% of registered voters in New Hampshire, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen’s bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate.  42% back GOP frontrunner Scott Brown.  Only 6% of voters are undecided.
• The gender gap is the difference in this contest.  Brown leads Shaheen among men, 51% to 42%.  In contrast, Shaheen outpaces Brown among women, 59% to 34%.
• Shaheen is bolstered by support from 93% of Democrats, 56% of moderates, and 51% among independents.
• A majority of residents, 51%, have a favorable impression of Shaheen.  Assessment of Brown is divided.  38% have a favorable view of him, and 37% have an unfavorable opinion.  Again, men and women have very different perspectives on these two candidates.
• Scott Brown leads his Republican rivals by a wide margin in September’s GOP primary for U.S. Senate.  Brown has the support of 61% of the potential Republican electorate compared with 16% for Bob Smith and 10% Jim Rubens.  12% are undecided.
• Incumbent Governor Hassan has a statewide approval rating of 53% including 79% of Democrats, 60% of women, and 59% of independents.  More residents also have a positive view of her, 45%, than a negative one, 29%.

President Obama Upside Down and Congressional Republicans Even More So

• A majority of New Hampshire residents, 53%, disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.  39% approve.
• More than two-thirds of residents, 68%, disapprove of the how the Congressional Republicans are doing in Washington including a plurality of Republican voters, 47%.  Just 19% of adults statewide approve of the job performance of the Congressional GOP.
• 68% of New Hampshire adults believe the nation is off course.  26% believe the nation is headed in the right direction.  A majority of Democrats, 56%, think the nation is on the right path.  But, 90% of Republicans and 72% of independents describe the nation as on the wrong track.

No to Health Care Plan, Yes to Limits on Greenhouse Gases, Divide on Immigration

• 51% of state residents think the Affordable Care Act is a bad idea including 45% who strongly feel that way.  Overall, 35% of adults statewide view the health care plan as a good idea but just 26% say they hold this opinion strongly.
• Do residents want companies to be required to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming if utility costs are passed on to consumers?  A majority of New Hampshire adults, 53%, approve of such a proposal, and 39% disapprove.  A majority of people in all age groups supports requiring companies to do this although two-thirds of residents under 30 years of age favor these limits.  Men divide but women overwhelmingly approve of this approach.
• Immigration legislation which allows for a pathway to citizenship divides New Hampshire residents.  48% support, and 47% oppose creating an opportunity for citizenship for foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/16: Tossup for U.S. Senate in Iowa, Governor Branstad Leads in Re-Election Bid

Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst are tied in their bid to win the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring Senator Tom Harkin.  About one in seven voters are undecided in this contest.  Not surprisingly, there is a strong partisan divide.  Braley overwhelmingly carries Democrats, and Ernst distances her opponent among Republicans by a similar margin.  Independent voters split between the two candidates.  A gender gap also keeps this a close matchup.  Braley is ahead among women, and Ernst leads among men.  A notable proportion of Iowans have yet to form an opinion about each of these candidates.  Both, Braley and Ernst, have similar favorability ratings statewide.  Incumbent Governor Terry Branstad has a double-digit lead over his competitor, State Senator Jack Hatch.  A strong majority of Iowans approve of the job Governor Branstad is doing in office, and he is well liked in the state.  Half of Iowans are not familiar enough with Democratic challenger, Jack Hatch to offer an opinion of him.  A majority of Iowa residents disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.

Click Here for Complete July 16, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Iowa Release and Tables

“The contest to replace five-term Senator Tom Harkin is neck and neck,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Iowa, right now, represents a chance for the GOP to pick up a Democratic seat in their quest to gain the majority in the U.S. Senate.”

Poll Points

• Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst are locked in a close battle for U.S. Senate, 43% to 43%, among registered voters in Iowa, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  14% of voters are undecided.
• Braley and Ernst have secured similar shares of their base voters.  Braley has the support of 84% of Democrats, and Ernst is backed by 85% of Republicans.  Independents divide, 41% for Braley and 39% for Ernst.
• Braley leads Ernst among women, 45% to 37%.  Ernst is ahead of Braley, 48% to 40%, among men.
• Both Senate candidates have ground to cover in building favorable name recognition among Iowans.  36% of state residents do not offer an opinion of Braley, and 31% are not familiar with Ernst.  Right now, each candidate’s favorable rating approximates their unfavorable score.
• Incumbent Republican Governor Terry Branstad has a strong lead over his Democratic opponent Jack Hatch, 53% to 38%, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Nine percent of voters are undecided.
• Incumbent Governor Branstad has an approval rating of 58% from residents in the state including 85% of Republicans, 58% of independents, and 36% of Democrats.  51% of Iowans have a favorable impression of the governor.  50% are not familiar with his Democratic opponent, Jack Hatch.

Majority Disapprove of President Obama, Congressional GOP More Unpopular

• 51% of Iowans disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in office.  36% approve.
• The Congressional Republicans are not held in high esteem.  63% of adults statewide disapprove of their job performance, and only 21% approve.
• Nearly two-thirds of Iowans, 66%, think the country is off on the wrong track compared with 26% who describe it as on the right path.  A majority of Democrats, 52%, believe the nation is on course.  But, 88% of Republicans and 69% of independents think the nation’s trajectory is misguided.

Mixed Bag on President’s Agenda

• 49% of Iowans describe the Affordable Care Act as a bad idea including 42% who hold this opinion strongly.  Just 31% of adults statewide have a positive view of the health care plan including 22% who strongly feel this way.
• Nearly half of state residents, 49%, want to require companies to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming even if utility costs are passed on to consumers.  40% oppose such limits on business.  Women are more likely to support the measure with 51% in favor and 35% opposed.  Men are split, 48% back limits and 46% do not.
• A pathway to citizenship for foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States divides Iowans.  48% oppose creating an opportunity for citizenship for immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally even if they have a job, and 46% support this proposed legislation.

 
Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/15: Colorado Democrats, Udall and Hickenlooper Lead But Both Under 50%

In his effort to be re-elected to the U.S. Senate from Colorado, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall has a single-digit advantage over Republican Congressman Cory Gardner.  Udall’s seven point lead over Gardner is based on his greater support from independents, women, and especially Latino voters.  In the contest for governor, incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper leads his Republican challenger former Congressman Bob Beauprez.  A majority of Coloradans approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing as governor including many independent voters among whom he leads Beauprez by double-digits.  A notable proportion of Colorado residents are not familiar with Beauprez.

Click Here for Complete July 15, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Colorado Release and Tables

“Udall has the early advantage to hold his Senate seat,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, he’s under 50% with a low favorability rating.”

Poll Points

• 48% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support incumbent Democrat Mark Udall for U.S. Senate compared with 41% for his Republican challenger Cory Gardner.  10% of voters are undecided.
• There is a wide partisan divide.  Udall has the support of 89% of Democrats and Gardner is favored by 83% of Republicans.  Udall leads Gardner handily among independent voters, 50% to 34%.
• A notable gender gap exists in this contest.  The candidates for U.S. Senate run neck and neck among men, but Udall is ahead among women, 50% to 38%.
• There is also a racial divide.  Udall and Gardner are closely matched among white voters, 46% to 44%.  However, Udall is favored over Gardner, 58% to 27%, among Latino voters.
• Udall’s favorability rating statewide is not strong.  41% of residents rate him positively and 35% rate him negatively.  Coloradans evenly divide in their opinion about Gardner.  31% see him favorably, and 31% view him unfavorably.
• Incumbent Governor Hickenlooper leads his Republican challenger Bob Beauprez, 49% to 43%, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.
• Hickenlooper receives the support of 90% of Democrats, and Beauprez has 84% among Republicans.  But, the key factor in the contest is Hickenlooper’s majority support, 52%, from independent voters compared with 35% for Beauprez.
• A majority of Latino voters, 55%, support Hickenlooper while 34% favor Beauprez.
• 54% of Coloradans approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing as governor including 56% of independents.  Nearly half of state residents, 49%, have a favorable impression of the governor.  40% of residents do not offer an opinion of Beauprez.

President Obama and Congressional Republicans Not Popular

• Only 40% of Coloradans approve of President Obama’s job performance.  Nearly half, 49%, disapprove.
• Colorado residents are even less enamored with the Congressional Republicans. 21% of adults statewide approve of the job they are doing, and 64% disapprove.  Even a plurality of Republicans, 45%, disapprove of the Congressional GOP.  40% approve of the job they are doing.
• 63% of Coloradans are unhappy with where the nation is headed including 90% of Republicans and 64% of independents.  29% believe the nation is on the right course including 58% of Democrats.

 
OK Pathway to Citizenship, Limit Greenhouse Gases, but No to Health Care Act

• A majority of Colorado residents, 55%, support the idea of a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States.  A pathway to citizenship is favored by both white and Latino residents.
• 50% of Coloradans approve of a requirement to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming even if utility costs are passed on to consumers.  40% disapprove of the proposal to require companies to do this.  76% of Democrats support the proposal, 52% of independents, and 28% of Republicans share this view.
• The Affordable Care Act is considered a bad idea by 51% of Colorado residents including 45% who strongly hold this view.  In contrast, 36% view the health care plan as a good idea of which 25% strongly have this opinion.

Polarized Over Firearms, Little Support for More Limits on Contraception or Abortion

• Regulation of the sale of firearms is a very controversial issue which divides residents in the state.  Although a majority of Colorado residents, 52%, are less likely to support a candidate who wants fewer restrictions on the sale of firearms, 50% of Coloradans are also less likely to support a candidate who advocates increasing limits to their sale.
• Most Coloradans, 70%, are less likely to support a candidate who favors greater restrictions on the use of contraception.  Only 16% are more likely to back a candidate with this view.
• 67% of Colorado residents are less likely to vote for a candidate who wants to increase restrictions on abortion.  25% are more likely to support a candidate who advocates greater limits.
• Although there is a gender gap on opinions about the sale of firearms, there is little difference in the views of men and women on the use of contraception or abortion.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/15: Michigan Election 2014 Statewide Contests Competitive

 

Democrat Congressman Gary Peters is ahead of former Secretary of State and Republican Terri Lynn Land by six points in the race to win the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring six-term incumbent, Democrat Carl Levin.  However, both candidates are not well known to voters, and nearly one in five voters are undecided.  This remains a competitive race.  Incumbent Governor Rick Snyder is neck and neck with his Democratic challenger and former Congressman Mark Schauer.  Snyder has a positive job performance rating as governor statewide but his favorability rating is less strong.  He is bolstered in his re-election effort by an advantage among independent voters and the electorate’s lack of familiarity with Schauer.  Despite having carried Michigan twice, President Obama’s job rating is upside down.

Click Here for Complete July 15, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Michigan Release and Tables

“Peters has an early edge in this contest to hold Senator Levin’s seat for the Democrats,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But Democrats can’t count on putting Michigan in their win column.”

Poll Points

• 43% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Democrat Gary Peters for U.S. Senate compared with 37% for Republican Terri Lynn Land.  19% of voters are still undecided.
• There is a significant partisan divide with Peters carrying 82% of Democrats and Land supported by 79% of Republicans.  Independents divide evenly, 36% to 36%.
• The candidates for U.S. Senate run evenly among men, but Peters leads among women by 13 points.
• Neither Peters nor Land is very well known statewide.  49% of Michigan residents do not have an opinion of Peters, and 40% are not familiar with Land.
• Incumbent Governor Snyder has 46% to 44% for his Democratic challenger Schauer.  Both Snyder and Schauer have strong support with voters in their respective parties.  Snyder has a 14 point lead among independent voters.
• 48% of statewide residents approve of the job Snyder is doing as governor including 53% of independents.  However, when asked about their overall impression of Snyder, residents divide 41% favorable and 38% unfavorable. 55% of adults do not offer an opinion of Schauer.

President Obama and Congressional Republicans Not Well Received

• Only 40% of Michigan residents approve of the job President Obama is doing.  46% disapprove.
• Congressional Republicans are even less popular than the president.  Just 19% of residents statewide approve of the job they are doing, and 62% disapprove.  Even Republican voters divide.  43% approve and 42% disapprove of how the GOP is doing in Congress.
• 62% of Michigan adults describe the nation as headed in the wrong direction.  29% believe the nation is on the right path.  A majority of Democrats, 57%, think the nation is on course.  But, 83% of Republicans and 70% of independents do not share this view.

 President’s Agenda Divides State

• Half of Michigan residents think the Affordable Care Act is a bad idea including 43% who strongly feel that way.  Overall, 32% view the health care plan as a good idea with just 22% saying they strongly hold this view.
• Adults statewide divide on the issue of whether companies should be required to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming if utility costs are passed on to consumers.  46% disapprove of a proposal to require companies to take this step, and 45% approve.  People under 30 years of age are more supportive of the proposal than those who are older.
• Michigan residents evenly divide, 47% favor to 47% oppose, on the issue of creating a pathway to citizenship for foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/10: Obama’s Rating Notches Up, But Majority of New Yorkers Still Down on President

The President’s approval rating in New York State has ticked upward since last November, but is still upside down.  According to this Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 NY/Marist Poll, President Obama has improved his standing among African Americans and New York City voters.  Reflecting national trends, voters in New York are not overly enthusiastic about the 2014 elections.  Even in blue state New York, Republicans show greater enthusiasm than either Democrats or independents.  New Yorkers rate each of their two U.S. Senators, Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, more positively than negatively.

 “Even in New York, the president struggles to convince a majority of voters that he is doing a good job,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Click Here for Complete July 10, 2014 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

Poll Points

• 45% of voters in New York State approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as president including 15% who rate him as excellent and 30% who rate him as good.  However, a majority, 55%, rate his performance as either fair, 23%, or poor, 32% (Trend).

• The marginal uptick in the president’s performance is primarily due to his backing from 87% of African Americans, an increase from 74% last time, and 65% of voters in New York City, up from 50% in November.
• Looking ahead to November’s elections, voters, overall, are not very enthusiastic about heading to the polls.  There is a party difference with 26% of Republicans saying they are very enthusiastic compared with 16% of Democrats and 11% of independents who share this high level of interest.
• Only 3% of voters between 18 and 29 are very enthusiastic about voting in November.  Although they lack intensity, nearly six in ten in this age group say they are somewhat enthusiastic.

New York’s U.S. Senators Schumer and Gillibrand Steady as they Go…

 U.S. Senators Charles Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand continue to enjoy steady approval ratings.

• A majority of voters, 54%, rate the job U.S. Senator Charles Schumer is doing in office as either excellent or good.  41% of New Yorkers disapprove of his job performance including 27% who rate his performance as fair and 14% who rate it as poor.  In March, 53% of voters gave him a positive score (Trend).

• 49% of voters give Kirsten Gillibrand either an excellent, 15%, or good, 34%, score for her work as U.S. Senator.  38% disapprove including 29% who say she is doing a fair job and 9% who rate her performance as poor.  In March, her approval rating was 45% (Trend).

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/9: Cuomo Outdistancing Largely Unknown GOP Challenger Astorino

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo has a sizable lead over his Republican challenger, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino in this Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 NY/Marist Poll. Cuomo is advantaged by strong support from his Democratic base, in addition, to leading among independents and even attracting a notable proportion of Republicans.  Despite voters’ lingering concerns about the economy, Astorino has had difficulty getting traction.  A majority of voters do not have an opinion of him, and those who do, divide.  Governor Cuomo even outperforms his challenger among voters who see the state as still needing major changes or who see taxes or economic development as the top state priority.

“The combination of Cuomo’s standing and voters’ lack of familiarity with Astorino has resulted in a lopsided contest for governor in this Democratic state,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Getting well known requires a lot of resources which will be more than matched by the governor’s war chest.”

Click Here for Complete July 9, 2014 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

Poll Points

• 59% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Governor Cuomo in his re-election bid compared with 24% for Republican Rob Astorino. Six percent back Howie Hawkins, the Green Party candidate.   In March, Cuomo led Astorino by 40 points, 65% to 25%.  The Green Party candidate was not included in the previous poll.
• Although Astorino tops Cuomo by two to one among Republicans, Cuomo still garners the support of 30% of the GOP.  In contrast, Astorino attracts only 4% of Democrats.
• Cuomo even leads Astorino, 50% to 31%, among voters who believe New York State needs major changes or is broken and beyond repair.  The governor also bests Astorino among those who cite taxes or economic development as the state’s top priority.
• 58% of registered voters have a positive view of the governor, a slight decline since March when 63% shared this view (Trend). But, Astorino is still not well known statewide.  A majority of voters, 54%, do not offer an opinion of him.  23% rate him positively, and 23% view him negatively.
• Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins and Democratic primary challenger Zephyr Teachout are not known by most voters.

Voters’ Impressions of the Governor Account for Wide Lead

 63%, overall, say Cuomo is a good leader for NYS, and 60% believe he cares about the average person.

• 55% are confident the Governor is changing the way things work in Albany for the better.  68% of Democrats, 46% of independents, and 45% of Republicans have this view.
• Still, 57% of voters think the state is in need of major changes, and 7% believe it is broken and beyond repair.  When Cuomo first took office in January 2011, 73% of voters believed major changes in state government were essential, and 10% thought the state was beyond fixing.
• 45% see Cuomo as a moderate, 34% view him as a liberal, and 12% describe him as conservative.  Close to half, 46%, are unsure about Astorino’s political ideology.
• Cuomo’s job approval rating has improved six points – climbing from 42% in March to 48% now. (Trend) This is in stark contrast to the 26% approval rating of the NYS Senate (Trend) and the 25% positive score for the NYS Assembly. (Trend)

Economy Still Top Challenge

Voters point to a number of economic issues when asked about their top priority for the state.  Jobs, economic development, and taxes are three of the top four issues cited.  Education ranks second, overall.

• Voters divide about whether the state is on track. (Trend) 47% believe it is on the right path, while 46% disagree. This is comparable to results seen in March.
• 60% still believe the state remains in a recession although this is down from 65% four months ago. (Trend) Impressions about the economy have improved slightly in New York City and its suburbs, but there has been little change Upstate.
• A sign that voters may be more optimistic about the state’s economic future is that 56% believe the worst of the economic slump has passed.  A majority of voters in all three regions of the state share this view.

For more analysis see Lee Miringoff’s blog, “Incumbent Cuomo Favored by Those Who Want Change.”

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

5/12: Kentucky: McConnell and Grimes Neck and Neck for U.S. Senate

Among registered voters in Kentucky including undecided voters who are leaning toward a candidate, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell receives 46% to 45% for Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.  One percent supports someone else, and 8% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete May 12, 2014 Kentucky NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll

“The battle for the Bluegrass State definitely bears watching as both sides hope for a majority in the U.S. Senate in 2014,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. 

Key points:

• Party ID.  More than eight in ten Republicans — 83% — support McConnell while 75% of Democrats back Grimes.  A notable 19% of Democrats are for McConnell compared with only 9% of Republicans who support Grimes.  McConnell edges Grimes, 46% to 41%, among independent voters.
• Gender.  There is a gender gap.  51% of men support McConnell while 40% are for Grimes.  Among women voters, 49% are for Grimes compared with 42% for McConnell.

Against Republican businessman Matt Bevin, Grimes has the support of 46% of registered voters in the state including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate compared with 37% for Bevin.  One percent is for another candidate, and 15% are undecided.  

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Kentucky: McConnell/Grimes (Kentucky Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Kentucky: Bevin/Grimes (Kentucky Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Low Favorability and Approval Ratings for McConnell…Grimes Unknown to Many 

45% of Kentucky adults have an unfavorable opinion of Mitch McConnell.  39% have a favorable impression of him while 13% are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters, 46% have a negative opinion of McConnell.  42% have a positive one, and 11% are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to McConnell’s job performance, 45% of Kentucky residents disapprove of how he is currently doing in the United States Senate.  39% approve, and 16% are unsure.  Among registered voters in the state, 46% give McConnell low marks.  41% are pleased with his performance, and 13% are unsure.

Looking at Grimes, 36% of Kentucky residents have a positive impression of her and 23% have a negative one.  14% have never heard of Grimes, and 27% are unsure how to rate her.  Among registered voters, 39% have a favorable opinion of Grimes while 24% have an unfavorable one.  One in ten — 10% — has never heard of her, and 27% are unsure how to rate Grimes.

Table: McConnell Favorability (Kentucky Adults)

Table: Mitch McConnell Approval Rating (Kentucky Adults)

Table: Grimes Favorability (Kentucky Adults)

McConnell Outdistances Bevin in GOP Primary for U.S. Senate in Kentucky 

In the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Kentucky, Senator Mitch McConnell leads his closest competitor, Matt Bevin, 57% to 25%, among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot.

Among likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot, here is how the Republican primary for U.S. Senate stands:

• 57% Mitch McConnell
• 25% Matt Bevin
•   3% Chris Payne
•   1% Shawna Sterling
•   1% Brad Copas
• <1% other
• 13% undecided 

Looking at strength of support, 50% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference say they are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.  37% are somewhat behind their selection, and 11% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

When it comes to the level of support for the top-tier candidates, 51% of McConnell’s backers say they are strongly in his corner.  Bevin enjoys a similar level of support.  53% of his backers say they will not waver in their commitment to him.

How does the likely Republican primary electorate view the front-runner in the GOP contest?  About two-thirds — 66% — have a favorable impression of McConnell.  26% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 8% are unsure.

Table: 2014 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Kentucky (Kentucky Likely Republican Primary Voters with Leaners and Early and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for Republican U.S. Senate Candidates in Kentucky (Kentucky Likely Republican Primary Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: McConnell Favorability (Kentucky Likely Republican Primary Voters)

More than Six in Ten Approve of Beshear’s Job Performance

61% of adults in Kentucky approve of the job Governor Steve Beshear is doing in office.  22% disapprove, and 17% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  63% applaud Governor Beshear’s job performance.  22% think he misses the mark, and 14% are unsure.

Table: Steve Beshear Approval Rating (Kentucky Adults)

Health Care Hiccups in Kentucky?

A majority of Kentucky residents — 56% — have an unfavorable impression of Obamacare.  33% have a favorable impression of it, and 11% are unsure how to rate it.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  57% of voters have a negative view of Obamacare.  33% have a positive one, and 10% are unsure how to rate the law.

Not surprisingly, then, half of Kentucky adults — 50% — think the new health care law is a bad idea.  This includes 42% who strongly feel this way and 8% who believe it is a bad idea.  However, 34% of residents think the new law is a good idea.  Included here are 26% who strongly believe the new law is a good idea and 8% who are somewhat positive towards it.  11% do not have an opinion either way, and 5% are unsure.

When it comes to Kynect, Kentucky’s Health Insurance Marketplace, 29% have a favorable opinion of the service.  22% have an unfavorable one, and nearly three in ten — 29% — have never heard of Kynect.  21% are unsure how to rate it.

Table: Obamacare Favorability (Kentucky Adults)

Table: Is the New Health Care Law a Good or Bad Idea (Kentucky Adults)

Table: Kynect Favorability (Kentucky Adults)

On the Issue of Abortion… 

67% of Kentucky residents think abortion should be illegal.  This includes 21% who say it should be illegal without exceptions and 46% who say it should be illegal except in cases of rape, incest, and to save the mother’s life.  28%, however, report abortion should be legal.  Included here are 18% who say abortion should always be legal and 10% who think it should be legal most of the time.

Table: Should Abortion be Legal or Illegal (Kentucky Adults)

Majority Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance

55% of Kentucky residents disapprove of how President Obama is doing in office.  33% approve, and 13% are unsure.  The opinions of registered voters reflect these views.  56% say the president misses the mark.  32% report he is doing well, and 12% are unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Kentucky Adults)

Nation Needs a New Compass, Say About Two-Thirds 

Do Kentucky residents think the country is on the right course?  66% believe it is moving in the wrong direction.  24% say it is travelling on the right road, and 9% are unsure.  Among registered voters in Kentucky, 67% report the nation is off course.  25% think it is moving in the right direction, and 9% are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Kentucky Adults)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

5/12: Georgia: Perdue Edges Kingston in GOP Primary Contest for U.S. Senate

In a large field of candidates seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Georgia, David Perdue — 23% — is ahead of Jack Kingston — 18% — by 5 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot.  Karen Handel follows in third with 14%.  Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun each have 11%.  22% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete May 12, 2014 Georgia NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll

“Right now, the GOP is headed for a run-off,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If that’s the case, who the top two finishers will be in the first round on May 20^th is still in doubt.  Then, the question becomes who’s the second choice of the defeated candidates.”

Among likely Republican primary voters in Georgia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot, here is how the contest for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate stands:

• 23% David Perdue
• 18% Jack Kingston
• 14% Karen Handel
• 11% Phil Gingrey
• 11% Paul Broun
•   1% Derrick Grayson
• <1% Art Gardner
•   1% other
• 22% undecided

How strongly do likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference support their choice for U.S. Senate?  39% are strongly committed to their candidate.  34% are somewhat behind their pick while 22% might vote differently.  Five percent are unsure.  Among the leading candidates, 49% of Kingston’s supporters are firmly committed to him compared with 41% of Handel’s backers and 34% of voters who are behind Purdue.

When it comes to the second choice of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference including early voters and those who voted by absentee ballot, 23% select Perdue.  Handel, Gingrey, and Kingston are each the backup for 13%.  An additional 8% cite Broun.  Grayson and Gardner each receives 2%.  Less than 1% of Republican primary voters with a candidate preference chooses someone else, and 25% are undecided.

Perdue is the second choice for 38% of Kingston’s supporters and 31% of Handel’s backers.  There is less consensus among those who are behind Perdue.  One in five — 20% — selects Kingston while 16% choose Gingrey.  An additional 16% of Perdue’s supporters cite Handel as their second choice.

When it comes to the favorability ratings of the top three candidates, more than six in ten likely Republican primary voters — 61% — have a favorable impression of Perdue.  Nine percent have an unfavorable view of him, and 6% have never heard of Perdue.  24% are unsure how to rate him.

49% of likely Republican primary voters think well of Kingston.  16% have a negative impression of him while 9% have never heard of Kingston.  26% are unsure how to rate him.  Looking at Handel’s favorability, 41% of likely Republican primary voters have a positive opinion of her while 18% have an unfavorable view of her.  14% have never heard of her, and 27% are unsure how to rate her.

Table: 2014 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Georgia (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters with Leaners and Early and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for Republican U.S. Senate Candidates in Georgia (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: Second Choice for Republican U.S. Senate Primary in Georgia (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: Perdue Favorability (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Table: Kingston Favorability (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Table: Handel Favorability (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters)

GOP Hopefuls Are Closely Matched with Likely Democratic Rival for November 

Will Saxby Chambliss’ Senate seat remain red or turn blue after he retires?

If the general election for U.S. Senate in Georgia were held today, here is how the contest would stand statewide among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate:

• 45% of registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate support Perdue against Democrat Michelle Nunn — 41%.  One percent backs someone else, and 13% are undecided.
• Broun — 43% — and Nunn — 42% — are neck and neck.  One percent supports someone else, and 14% are undecided.
• Kingston is even against Nunn.  Both Kingston and Nunn garner 43% of the vote.  One percent supports another candidate, and 13% are undecided.
• 44% support Nunn against Gingrey who receives 42%.  One percent backs someone else, and 13% are undecided.
• Nunn garners 42% to 39% for Handel.  One percent chooses another candidate, and 18% are undecided.

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Perdue/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Broun/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Kingston/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Gingrey/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Handel/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Candidates Unknown to Many Statewide

38% of Georgia residents have a favorable view of Nunn.  21% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 15% have never heard of her.  26% are unsure how to rate her.  Among registered voters, 41% like Nunn while 22% have a lesser opinion of her.  11% of voters have never heard of Nunn, and 27% are unsure how to rate her.

Perdue receives a similar rating.  38% have a positive opinion of him.  19% have an unfavorable view of him while 13% have never heard of Perdue.  29% are unsure how to rate him.  Looking at registered voters statewide, 40% have a favorable impression of Perdue while 20% have an unfavorable one.  One in ten — 10% — has never heard of him, and 30% are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Kingston’s favorable rating, 30% have a positive view of him.  23% have a negative opinion of him, and nearly one in five — 18% — has never heard of Kingston.  29% are unsure how to rate him.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these opinions.  32% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Kingston while 24% have an unfavorable one.  14% have never heard of Kingston, and 30% are unsure how to rate him.

27% of Georgians have a favorable opinion of Handel and 20% have an unfavorable impression of her.  24% have never heard of Handel and an additional three in ten — 30% — are unsure how to rate her.  Among registered voters in the state, 29% think well of Handel.  21% have a lesser impression of her, and one in five — 20% — has never heard of her.  30% are unsure how to rate her.

Table: Michelle Nunn Favorability (Georgia Adults)

Table: David Perdue Favorability (Georgia Adults)

Table: Jack Kingston Favorability (Georgia Adults)

Table: Karen Handel Favorability (Georgia Adults)

The Good and Bad of the New Health Care Law

36% of residents think the new health care law is a good idea.  This includes 28% who strongly believe it is a good idea and 8% who say it is somewhat of a good idea.  Half of adults — 50% — say it is a bad idea.  Included here are 45% who strongly feel this way and 5% who just say it is a bad idea.  10% have no opinion on the issue, and 4% are unsure.

Looking at registered voters, 36% think the health care law is a good idea.  A majority — 52% — says it is a bad one.  Nine percent have no opinion on the issue, and 4% are unsure.

Table: Is the New Health Care Law a Good or Bad Idea (Georgia Adults)

Deal Leads Carter in Contest for Georgia Governor 

In the race for Georgia governor, Republican incumbent Nathan Deal has the support of 50% of registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  His Democratic challenger, Jason Carter, garners 40% while 1% backs another candidate.  10% are undecided.

Key points:

• Party ID.  There is a partisan divide.  89% of Republicans support Deal while 83% of Democrats are for Carter.  Independent voters are key.  A majority — 53% — is behind Deal while 34% back Carter.
• Gender.  There is a gender gap.  A majority of men — 57% — supports Deal while 34% are for Carter.  Women divide.  45% back Carter while 44% support Deal.
• Age.  A majority of voters 45 and older — 54% — is behind Deal while 37% support Carter.  Younger voters divide.  46% of those under 45 are for Deal while 44% are for Carter.

Table: 2014 Race for Governor in Georgia: Deal/Carter (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Majority Approves of Deal’s Job Performance 

Do Georgia residents approve of how Governor Deal is performing in office?  55% approve of how he is doing his job while 26% disapprove.  19% are unsure.  Among registered voters statewide, 58% give Deal a thumbs-up while 27% believe he is missing the mark.  15% are unsure.

Table: Governor Nathan Deal Approval Rating (Georgia Adults) 

Nearly Half Disapprove of Obama’s Job Performance

49% of Georgia residents disapprove of how President Barack Obama is doing his job.  41% approve, and 10% are unsure.  Among registered voters statewide, 50% think the president’s performance has fallen short while 41% approve of the president’s job performance.  Eight percent are unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Georgia Adults)

A Country Off Track? 

59% of Georgia residents think the country is moving in the wrong direction.  32% believe it is on the correct path, and 9% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  59% of voters report the country needs a new compass.  32% say it is on the right road while 8% are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Georgia Adults)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

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