3/7: New Mayor, but City Still Divides

Tags: Chirlane McCray, de Blasio Approval Rating, Direction of NYC, Mayor Bill de Blasio

3/6: Cuomo Pummels GOP Opponents, But…

March 6, 2014 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

Click Here for Complete March 6, 2014 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release and Tables

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo’s re-election prospects are promising. Cuomo outdistances each of his potential GOP rivals by at least 40 percentage points. Cuomo also remains well-liked by most registered voters despite the lowest job approval rating the governor has received since taking office in 2011. So, what accounts for the sharp drop in Cuomo’s job performance rating? The view of many voters that the state’s economy is still struggling plays a role.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

“Governor Cuomo’s opponents face an uphill fight to unseat him this November,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Voters are comfortable with Cuomo but he still needs to convince many that the economy is turning around.”

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

Looking ahead to this November’s gubernatorial election, Cuomo maintains a robust lead over his potential Republican challengers. Among registered voters in New York State, here is how these hypothetical contests stand:

Cuomo — 65% — outpaces Rob Astorino — 25% — by 40 percentage points. One in ten voters in New York State — 10% — is undecided. Cuomo — 65% — had a similar advantage against Astorino — 23% — when NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question last November. At that time, 12% of voters were undecided.
Against Carl Paladino, Cuomo has the support of nearly seven in ten voters — 68%. This compares with 25% for Paladino. Eight percent are undecided. Last fall, 67% backed Cuomo while 24% were for Paladino. Nine percent, then, were undecided.
Cuomo — 70% — trounces Donald Trump — 26% — by 44 percentage points. Five percent are undecided. In that previous survey, 70% supported Cuomo compared with 24% for Trump. Seven percent were undecided.

Cuomo’s re-election chances stand firm despite a steep decline in his job approval rating. 42% of registered voters statewide approve of how Cuomo is doing his job. This includes 7% who think he is doing an excellent job and 35% who believe he is doing a good one. 38% rate Cuomo’s job performance as fair, and nearly one in five voters — 18% — calls it poor. Three percent are unsure.

In November, 52% of voters gave Cuomo high marks. Included here were 8% who thought Cuomo was doing an excellent job and 44% who said he was doing a good one. 31%, at that time, thought the governor was doing an average job while 13% reported he was doing a poor one. Three percent were unsure.

Regardless of party, region, or race, there has been a drop in Cuomo’s approval rating. However, the largest change has occurred among Latino and African American voters.

By race:

Among registered voters who are Latino, 41% approve of how Cuomo is doing his job. This compares with 62% who had this view in NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey.
42% of African American voters, compared with 57% in the fall, think well of how Cuomo is performing as governor.
Among white voters, 44% approve of Cuomo’s job performance. This compares with 49% in November.

By party:

51% of Democrats give Cuomo high marks while 63% did so in that previous survey.
Among Republicans, 33% approve of Cuomo’s job performance. 39% shared this view in November.
34% of non-enrolled voters give Cuomo high marks while nearly half — 48% — did so in the fall.

By region:

50% of voters in New York City approve of Cuomo’s job performance. This compares with 56% in NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey.
In the suburbs of New York City, 45% think well of how Cuomo is doing his job while 57% said the same in November.
35% of upstate voters give Cuomo high marks while 47% had this opinion in that previous survey.

Voters’ views of the recession have impacted Cuomo’s job approval rating. A slim majority of those who think the Empire State is not in a recession — 51% — think Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office. This compares with only 37% of voters who say New York is in a recession.

How many voters statewide think New York is in a recession? Close to two-thirds — 65% — believe the state is under the cloud of a recession. 34% say we are not in an economic slump, and 1% is unsure. There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who think New York is in a recession. When this question was last reported in NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s survey last April, 58% said the state was in a recession. 39% thought New York was not, and 3% were unsure.

While Cuomo’s approval rating has fallen, his favorability remains strong. 63% of voters have a positive view of the governor while 33% have a negative impression of him. Four percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. This is little changed from November when 66% said they liked the governor. 28% reported they disliked him, and 6% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

“Governor Cuomo is bolstered by a high favorability rating,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “His lower job performance score is not costing him at the ballot box.”

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Astorino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Paladino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Trump

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

Table: NYS in a Recession?

Table: NYS in a Recession Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Voters Weigh In on Potential GOP Hopefuls

Are Cuomo’s potential challengers viewed positively by voters? 61% of voters have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. 36% think well of him, and 4% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. Looking at Carl Paladino, 30% like him while 40% have a lesser opinion of him. Three in ten voters — 30% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. Rob Astorino is little known to a plurality of voters. While 25% think well of him and 29% have a negative impression of Astorino, 46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

When looking at Republicans statewide, Trump has the highest favorable rating. 60% of Republican voters like Trump while 37% do not. Three percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. When it comes to Paladino, there is little consensus among Republicans. 38% think highly of him while 31% do not. 32% have either never heard of Paladino or are unsure how to rate him. Astorino is not well known among Republicans. 34% have a positive view of him while 17% have a negative opinion of him. However, nearly half of Republicans — 49% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Donald Trump Favorability

Table: Carl Paladino Favorability

Table: Rob Astorino Favorability

Making Headway?

While a majority of voters think Governor Cuomo is improving Albany for the better, fewer say he is having a positive impact on the state, overall.

56% of New York voters think Cuomo is changing the way things work in Albany for the better. This compares with 40% who disagree with that opinion. Three percent are unsure. In November, 61% thought Cuomo was making positive inroads in Albany while 35% did not think Cuomo was changing it for the better. Four percent, at that time, were unsure.

However, when it comes to the impact Cuomo is having on New York State, 45% say he is improving it. 23% report Cuomo is changing it for the worse, and 29% think he is not having any effect on the Empire State. Three percent are unsure.

What do voters think of Cuomo’s political ideology?

36% call him a liberal. 46% say he is a moderate, and 12% describe him as a conservative. Six percent are unsure. There has been little change on this question since November when 35% thought the governor was liberal. 45% believed he was a moderate, and 11% said he was conservative. Nine percent were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on New York State

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

Directional Divide

50% of New York voters think the state is moving in the right direction. However, 47% say it is moving in the wrong one. Three percent are unsure. In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 50% thought the state was on course. 45% reported it had fallen off the track, and 5% were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS Over Time

Status Quo for Schumer and Gillibrand

53% of registered voters believe Senator Chuck Schumer is doing either an excellent — 15% — or good — 38% — job in office. 30% describe his performance as fair while 14% believe he is doing a poor job. Three percent have either never heard of Schumer or are unsure how to rate him. Schumer’s approval rating is solid. In the fall, 56% thought highly of how Schumer was doing in the U.S. Senate. 26% rated his performance as average while 15% thought he fell short. Four percent had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Kirsten Gillibrand’s job approval rating, 45% say she is doing either an excellent — 10% — or good — 35% — job in office. 31% say she is doing a fair job while 12% think she is performing poorly. 11% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her. Previously, 47% gave Gillibrand high marks. 30% thought her performance was fair, and 12% said it was lacking. 12% had either never heard of Gillibrand or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

Tags: Andrew Cuomo, approval rating, Carl Paladino, Charles Schumer Approval Rating, Direction of New York State, Donald Trump, Gillibrand Approval Rating, recession, Rob Astorino

2/26: Gray Leads Democratic Challengers in D.C. Mayor’s Race, but Faces Difficult Primary Campaign

February 26, 2014 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, National Poll Archive, Politics

Click Here for Complete February 26, 2014 NBC4/WAMU/Washington Informer/Marist Poll Release and Tables

District of Columbia Mayor Vincent Gray has the advantage against the Democratic candidates challenging him in April’s Democratic primary. Among District Democrats likely to vote in the primary, Gray leads his closest competitor, Muriel Bowser, by eight percentage points. District residents, including a majority of Democrats, are satisfied with Gray’s job performance and are pleased with the direction of the District. However, Gray’s 2010 campaign finance scandal has muddied his image and may be a difficult issue for some voters to overlook.

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC4/WAMU/Washington Informer/Marist Poll

“In the Democratic primary, Mayor Gray benefits from a very crowded field, but there are many persuadable voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Voters’ second choice may be key in the closing weeks of the campaign.”

Here is how the contest stands among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate:

28% Vincent Gray
20% Muriel Bowser
13% Jack Evans
12% Tommy Wells
6% Andy Shallal
4% Vincent Orange
3% Reta Lewis
<1% Carlos Allen
1% other
12% undecided

There are differences by race. 41% of likely Democratic voters who are African American support Gray, and 23% are for Bowser. Among white Democrats who are likely to vote on primary day, Wells receives 24% to 21% for Evans, and 18% for Bowser. Gray trails with 10%.

How strongly do likely Democratic voters in the District with a candidate preference support their choice? 44% are strongly committed to their choice for the Democratic nomination. 36% are somewhat behind their candidate while 19% might vote differently. One percent is unsure. Looking at the level of commitment for the top two candidates, 53% of Gray’s backers strongly support him. This compares with 50% of Bowser’s supporters who express a similar level of commitment.

Looking at the second choice of likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference, only 12% pick Gray. 21% cite Bowser as their backup candidate. 18% say Evans is their second choice, and 12% report Wells is their second pick. Orange is the second choice of 9% while 7% say the same of Shallal. Four percent mention Lewis while Allen is the backup candidate for 1%. One percent say someone else is their second choice candidate, and 15% are undecided.

When it comes to the level of enthusiasm Democrats have about voting in April’s primary for mayor, 32% are very enthusiastic. 46% are moderately enthusiastic while 16% are not too enthusiastic. Six percent are not enthusiastic at all.

Table: 2014 District of Columbia Democratic Mayoral Primary (D.C. Likely Democratic Voters with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for District of Columbia Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (D.C. Likely Democratic Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: Second Choice for the District of Columbia Mayoral Primary (D.C. Likely Democratic Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote in District of Columbia Mayoral Primary (D.C. Democrats)

Democrats Like Bowser, Evans, Wells… Divide over Gray

When it comes to the candidates’ favorability, how do they compare?

50% of Democrats in the District have a favorable impression of Bowser. 28% have an unfavorable one, and 22% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
46% have a positive opinion of Evans. This compares with 29% who have a negative view of him. One in four Democrats — 25% — has either never heard of Evans or are unsure how to rate him.
A plurality of Democrats — 46% — has a favorable impression of Wells. This compares with 28% who have an unfavorable one, and 26% who have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
46% of Democrats think well of Gray while 48% have a lesser opinion of him. Five percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
Orange’s favorable rating is lopsided. 32% have a favorable opinion of Orange while 50% have a lesser view of him. 18% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
While 34% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Shallal and 26% have an unfavorable one, 40% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
Lewis is also little known to a slim majority of D.C. Democrats. 21% have a favorable opinion of her, and 28% have an unfavorable view of Lewis. However, 51% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
Allen is the least known of the candidates. Only 10% of Democrats have a favorable view of him, and 26% have an unfavorable opinion of Allen. More than six in ten — 63% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Muriel Bowser Favorability (D.C. Democrats)

Table: Jack Evans Favorability (D.C. Democrats)

Table: Tommy Wells Favorability (D.C. Democrats)

Table: Vincent Gray Favorability (D.C. Adults)

Table: Vincent Orange Favorability (D.C. Democrats)

Table: Andy Shallal Favorability (D.C. Democrats)

Table: Reta Lewis Favorability (D.C. Democrats)

Table: Carlos Allen Favorability (D.C. Democrats)

Economy and Jobs Most Important Issue to Many D.C. Democrats

More than four in ten Democrats — 44% — say that the economy and jobs is the most important factor in deciding their vote for mayor in April’s primary. Ethics is the top issue for 22%, and the same proportion — 22% — reports housing is their leading motivator. 11% of Democrats cite crime as the most important factor when deciding their vote. Two percent are unsure.

There is a racial divide. While 50% of Democrats who are African American cite the economy and jobs as their top priority, 43% of white Democrats mention ethics as their leading issue.

Table: Most Important Issue in Deciding Vote for Mayor in April’s Democratic Primary (D.C. Democrats)

Gray’s Clouded by Campaign Finance Investigation, but Bolstered by Approval Rating

A majority of Democrats — 53% — say they are less likely to vote for Mayor Gray given the 2010 investigation into his campaign finances. Seven percent report the scandal makes them more likely to cast their ballot for him, and 36% say the inquiry makes no difference to their vote. Four percent of Democrats are unsure.

Most Democrats who are white — 82% — are less likely to support Gray due to the investigation into his campaign. This compares with 33% of African American Democrats who say the same. A slim majority of African American Democrats — 51% — says this investigation makes no difference to their vote.

Looking at the overall D.C. population, 42% of adults think Gray did something unethical but not illegal. Close to one in four — 24% — believes he did something illegal, and 14% say he did nothing wrong. One in five D.C. residents is unsure. Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

Among Democrats, 46% think Gray was involved in unethical, but not illegal, actions. 24% believe he was behind something illegal while 15% say he did nothing wrong. 15% of Democrats are unsure.

Gray has a strong job approval rating. A majority of adults — 56% — approves of how Gray is doing in office. 36% disapprove, and 8% are unsure. Among registered voters, a similar 55% applaud Gray’s job performance. 38% disapprove, and 6% are unsure. Here, too, D.C. Democrats reflect these views. 56% of Democrats give Gray high marks. This compares with 39% who think he has fallen short. Five percent are unsure.

Slightly more than seven in ten residents — 71% — believe things in the District are headed in the right direction. 24%, though, say they are on the wrong track, and 5% are unsure. Nearly identical proportions of registered voters share these views. Looking at Democrats, 74% say D.C. is on track. 22% believe it has lost course, and 4% are unsure.

Table: Does 2010 Investigation into Mayor Vincent Gray’s Campaign Finances Make You More or Less Likely to Vote for Him (D.C. Democrats)

Table: Did Mayor Vincent Gray Perform Illegal or Unethical Actions (D.C. Adults)

Table: Mayor Vincent Gray Approval Rating (D.C. Adults)

Table: Direction of the District of Columbia (D.C. Adults)

Residents Mixed about Casting Ballot for Gray in November

If Gray wins the Democratic nomination, 43% of adults in D.C. say they will definitely vote for him. However, 40% report they definitely will not. Nearly one in five residents — 17% — is undecided. Among registered voters, similar proportions share these views. 42% plan to support Gray while 42% say they will not cast their ballot for him. 16% are undecided. Democrats also divide.

But, does Gray deserve to be re-elected? Six in ten adults in D.C. — 60% — think it is time to elect someone else. 31%, however, say Gray deserves to be re-elected. Nine percent are unsure. The views of registered voters in the District mirror those of residents, overall. 62% of registered voters think D.C. should have a new leader. 30% believe Gray should stay in power, and 8% are unsure. Democrats agree with these opinions.

Table: Will You Definitely Vote For or Against Mayor Gray in General Election? (D.C. Adults)

Table: Does Mayor Vincent Gray Deserve to be Re-elected? (D.C. Adults)

More than Eight in Ten Approve of Obama’s Job Performance

85% of D.C. adults think President Barack Obama is doing well in office. 11% disapprove, and 4% are unsure. Registered voters agree. 87% of registered voters in the District approve of the president’s job performance. 10% disapprove, and 3% are unsure.

More than nine in ten Democrats — 93% — applaud Mr. Obama’s job performance. Four percent disapprove, and 2% are unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (D.C. Adults)

Click Here for Complete February 13, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Tags: D.C. Mayor's Race, Direction of D.C., Muriel Bowser, Vincent Gray

2/13: Many Americans Lack Confidence in Obama and Congressional GOP

February 13, 2014 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

1 Comment

Americans’ faith in their elected officials in Washington is in short supply. Nearly two-thirds of adults nationally report they do not have confidence in President Barack Obama to make headway on important issues facing the country this year, and more than seven in ten have this view of the Republicans in Congress. When it comes to the grade Americans give to their elected officials in Washington, nearly six in ten residents say they deserve below average marks.

whitehouse.gov

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Americans paint a very stark picture of their leaders in Washington,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “They’re fatigued by political infighting and see recent agreements as too little too late.”

65% of U.S. residents are not very confident — 34% — or not confident at all — 31% — that President Obama will advance the key issues facing the nation in the coming year. However, about one in three Americans — 33% — has faith in President Obama to make headway on important issues on the national agenda. Included here are 7% who are very confident and 26% who are confident. Two percent are unsure. Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

While 62% of Democrats express confidence in the president’s ability to move the national conversation forward, 37% are not that certain. Not surprisingly, most Republicans — 91% — do not believe President Obama will be able to advance the important issues facing the country. Nearly three in four independents — 74% — agree.

When it comes to the Republicans in Congress, 71% of adults nationally do not think they will be able to advance the key issues on the national agenda. This includes 43% who are not very confident in them to do so and 28% who are not confident at all. Only 26% of Americans believe the GOP in Congress can make headway on these issues. Included here are 3% who are very confident and 23% who are confident. The views of registered voters mirror those of Americans, overall.

By party, more than three in four Democrats — 77% — and close to eight in ten independents — 79% — lack confidence in Congressional Republicans to advance the important issues facing the nation. Even six in ten Republicans — 60% — have this opinion.

Overall, Americans are dissatisfied with the performance of elected officials in Washington. 57% of adults nationally give elected officials below average grades. This includes 28% who say they deserve a “D” and 29% who report they should be given an “F.” Only 1% thinks the country’s representatives in Washington have earned an “A,” and 12% believe they should receive a “B.” 29% bestow an average grade of “C” on public officeholders in Washington.

There has been some improvement on this question. When McClatchy-Marist last reported it in December, 68% of adults thought federal officials deserved below average grades. One percent said they should receive an “A” while 7% reported “B” was sufficient. Close to one in four — 24% — thought elected officials in Washington earned a “C.”

Table: Confidence Level in President Obama to Make Headway on Important Issues

Table: Confidence Level in the Republicans in Congress to Make Headway on Important Issues

Table: Grade Given to Elected Officials in Washington, D.C.

Majority Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance

52% of registered voters nationally disapprove of how President Obama is doing his job. 42% approve, and 5% are unsure. There has been little movement on this question since December when 53% believed the president had fallen short. 43%, at that time, approved of the president’s job performance, and 4% were unsure.

A partisan divide exists. While 80% of Democrats approve of the job Obama is doing, 88% of Republicans disapprove. Nearly six in ten independents — 58% — are dissatisfied with how the president is performing his job.

On the specifics of the president’s job performance, a majority of voters — 54% — disapproves of how he is handling the economy. 41% approve, and 5% are unsure. In McClatchy-Marist’s December survey, 58% disapproved of how Obama was dealing with the economy. 40% approved, and 2% were unsure.

Half of voters — 50% — are also displeased with how President Obama is handling foreign policy. 43% approve of the president’s approach, and 8% are unsure. These results are similar to those found in December when 51% of voters nationally disapproved of how President Obama tackled foreign policy issues. 46% approved, and 4%, then, were unsure.

When it comes to the president’s favorability, voters divide. 50% have a negative opinion of Mr. Obama while 47% have a favorable one. Three percent have either never heard of the president or are unsure how to rate him.

Perceptions of the president have improved slightly. When this question was last reported in January, 48% of voters had an unfavorable impression of him, and 41% had a favorable one. 11%, at that time, had either never heard of the president or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy (Over Time)

Table: Handling Foreign Policy

Table: Handling Foreign Policy (Over Time)

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

Voters Still Sour on Congressional GOP and Dems

Members of Congress are also feeling the heat from voters. More than seven in ten voters — 72% — disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing, including a majority of Republicans. 22% of registered voters approve, and 6% are unsure. Congressional Republicans have not been able to reverse public opinion. In December, 74% of voters gave them low marks. 22% thought they were doing a good job, and 4% were unsure.

Impressions of the Republican Party, overall, are far from stellar. More than six in ten voters nationally — 62% — have an unfavorable view of the GOP. 32% think well of the party, and 6% have either never heard of it or are unsure how to rate it.

Independents are key. 65% of independent voters have a negative view of the Republican Party, and even 29% of Republicans have this view. Not surprisingly, more than eight in ten Democrats — 84% — have an unfavorable opinion of the GOP.

Congressional Democrats don’t fare much better. Six in ten voters — 60% — disapprove of the job they are doing. About one-third — 33% — approves, and 7% are unsure. There has been little change since December when 64% of the national electorate believed the Democrats in Congress fell short. 33% thought they were doing well in their post, and 3%, then, were unsure.

When it comes to what voters think of the Democratic Party, 53% have an unfavorable impression of it. 43% have a favorable view of the party, and 4% have either never heard of it or are unsure how to rate it.

Again, independent voters play a pivotal role. 56% of independents have a negative opinion of the Democratic Party. 91% of Republicans share this view. However, more than eight in ten Democrats — 82% — have a positive impression of their political party.

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Republican Party Favorability

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Democratic Party Favorability

The Battle for Congressional Control: Voters Divide

Looking to this year’s mid-term elections, 46% of voters say they would support the Democratic candidate. 44% would back the Republican while 4% would vote for another candidate. Five percent are undecided.

These results reflect those found in December’s survey. At that time, 43% of voters said they would support the Democrat for Congress while 43% said they were for the Republican. Six percent would vote for someone else, and 8% were undecided.

The parties are polarized with 88% of Democrats saying they would support the Democratic candidate and 96% of Republicans reporting they would back the Republican candidate. Among independents, they divide. 43% would support the Democrat while 40% would back the Republican for Congress in their district.

Table: 2014 Congressional Elections

Nearly Two-Thirds of Americans Believe Nation is on the Wrong Track

64% of adults nationally believe the country is on the wrong track. 33% say it is on the right one, and 3% are unsure. When this question was last reported earlier this month, 63% of Americans believed the country was moving in the wrong direction while 30% thought it was traveling in the right one. Eight percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Over Time)

Tags: Confidence, Congressional Elections, Democrats in Congress, Direction of Country, Economy, foreign policy, Obama Approval Rating, Obama Favorability, Republicans in Congress

2/12: McClatchy-Marist Poll

February 12, 2014 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

What are voters’ views toward President Barack Obama and Congress? Do they approve of the way Mr. Obama is handling the economy and the way he is dealing with foreign policy? And, overall, what grade do Americans give their elected officials in Washington? Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

Tags:

2/12: Clinton Breaks 50% against GOP Rivals for 2016

February 12, 2014 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Click Here for Complete February 12, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

If Hillary Clinton were to run for president in 2016 and win her party’s nomination, a majority of registered voters nationally would support Clinton, regardless of her Republican opponent. Her closest competitor is Paul Ryan who Clinton leads by single digits. Clinton has a similar lead when up against former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Voters are still a long way from making choices,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, right now, Clinton is in a league of her own.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

Clinton — 52% — leads Paul Ryan — 44% — by 8 percentage points. Four percent are undecided. When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in December, Clinton received 56% to 40% for Ryan. Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
Clinton — 53% — is also ahead of Romney — 44% — by single digits. Three percent are undecided.
Against Mike Huckabee, Clinton opens up a double-digit lead. Here, 55% of voters are for Clinton compared with 41% for Huckabee. Four percent are undecided.
Clinton — 56% — has a seventeen percentage point advantage over Ted Cruz — 39%. Five percent are undecided. In December, Clinton received 57% to 35% for Cruz. Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.
Clinton also outpaces Jeb Bush by 20 percentage points. 58% of voters nationally support Clinton compared with 38% for Bush. Four percent are undecided. In December, Clinton had 53% while Bush received 41%. Six percent, then, were undecided.
When matched against Rand Paul, Clinton leads by 20 percentage points. A majority — 58% — supports Clinton compared with 38% for Paul. Four percent are undecided. In that previous McClatchy-Marist survey, 55% backed Clinton while 40% were for Paul. Five percent were undecided.
Against Chris Christie, Clinton — 58% — outdistances Christie — 37% — by 21 percentage points. Six percent are undecided. When this question was reported in January, 50% of voters were for Clinton while 37% were for Christie. 12% were undecided.
Nearly six in ten voters — 58% — support Clinton compared with 37% for Marco Rubio. Four percent are undecided. In December, 52% backed Clinton while 42% supported Rubio. Five percent were undecided.
Against Sarah Palin, Clinton receives 62% to 35% for Palin. Three percent are undecided. Two months ago, 59% were behind Clinton compared with 36% for Palin. Four percent were undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Romney

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Huckabee

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Palin

Favorably Speaking?

A majority of registered voters — 52% — has a favorable view of Clinton. 43% have an unfavorable impression of her, and 5% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her. In January, 51% of voters thought well of Clinton. 39% had a lesser view of her, and 10% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Half of Americans, including a slim majority of voters, give Clinton high marks for her tenure as Secretary of State. 50% of adults approve of the job she did. This includes 18% who think she did an excellent job and 32% who believe she did a good one. 28% rate her performance as fair while 19% give her poor marks. Three percent are unsure. Among registered voters, 51% of voters think highly of the job Clinton did as Secretary of State. 26% report she did an average job while 20% say she fell short. Three percent of voters are unsure.

Romney’s favorability is upside down. 51% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney while 43% have a favorable one. Six percent have either never heard of Romney or are unsure how to rate him.

Christie’s favorable rating is also more negative than positive. A plurality of voters — 46% — has an unfavorable view of him. 33% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of Christie or are unsure how to rate him. Fewer voters are unsure about Christie’s image, to his detriment. In January, 32% of voters had a negative view of Christie. 29% had a positive one, and 39% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Americans’ opinions regarding Christie’s involvement in the George Washington Bridge controversy have flipped. 46% of adults nationally currently say Christie is not telling the truth while 42% think he is. 12% are unsure. In January, 44% of Americans reported Christie was being mostly truthful while 33% thought Christie was not being completely honest. 23%, then, were unsure.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Hillary Clinton Approval Rating as Secretary of State

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Telling the Truth about the George Washington Bridge Controversy?

Crowded Field for 2016 GOP Nomination

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:

13% Chris Christie
13% Mike Huckabee
12% Marco Rubio
9% Rand Paul
9% Paul Ryan
8% Jeb Bush
8% Sarah Palin
7% Scott Walker
5% Ted Cruz
2% Rick Perry
2% Rick Santorum
1% John Kasich
12% undecided

“The Democrats may have a clear front-runner in Hillary Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, front-runner is not the word you would use to describe the GOP field.”

When this question was last reported in January, Christie had the support of 16%, 12% backed Ryan while 9% were for Paul. Bush had the support of 8%, and 7% were for Rubio. Six percent backed Perry, and Santorum and Cruz each received 5%. Four percent were for Scott Walker while 3% were behind Bobby Jindal. One in four — 25% — was undecided.

Which candidate would be the second choice of Republican and Republican leaning independents without Christie and Palin in the contest? Here is how the race stands among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents:

15% Marco Rubio
15% Mike Huckabee
13% Paul Ryan
12% Jeb Bush
11% Rand Paul
8% Scott Walker
6% Ted Cruz
4% Rick Santorum
3% Rick Perry
1% John Kasich
14% undecided

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus (Second Choice)

Tags: Chris Christie Favorability, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton Approval Rating, Hillary Clinton Favorability, Mitt Romney Favorability

2/11: McClatchy-Marist Poll

February 11, 2014 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Click Here for Complete January 15, 2014 USA NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

Looking ahead to 2016, if Hillary Clinton were to seek the Presidency and receive her party’s nomination, how would she fare against potential Republican opponents? Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie still a formidable candidate? Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist poll.

©istockphoto/MCCAIG

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

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1/15: NBC News/Marist Poll: Are New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s Political Plans Bottlenecked?

January 15, 2014 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

11 Comments

Has New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s image suffered nationally because of the controversy surrounding his administration’s role in the traffic tie-ups on the George Washington Bridge in September of last year? According to this NBC News/Marist Poll, while 69% of Americans say the political uproar has not had any effect on their opinion of Christie, close to one in five — 18% — likes him less because of it. Five percent like him more, and 8% are unsure. Among Americans who have heard about the bridge controversy, 24% say their dislike for Christie has grown.

“The question is can Chris Christie weather this political storm, or is this another in a list of considerable hurdles he will need to overcome if he wants to make a run for the White House,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

By party:

Nearly seven in ten Republicans — 69% — report the political brouhaha has had no impact on how they view Christie. However, 16% like him less. Only 8% like him more, and 7% are unsure.
Among Democrats, 61% report the issue has had no impact on their opinion of Christie. However, 28% say they like him less, and just 3% like him more. Eight percent are unsure.
Looking at independent voters, 73% report the issue has had no effect on their impression of Christie. Still, 17% like him less, and 5% like him more. Five percent are unsure.

A plurality of Americans believes New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s assertion that he played no role in creating traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge for political retribution. 44% of adults nationally say Christie is mostly telling the truth that he had no knowledge of the events that led up to the traffic tie-ups. However, a notable 33% report he is mostly not telling the truth, and an additional 23% are unsure.

Americans who have heard about the bridge controversy are more likely to think Christie is being honest. A majority of these Americans — 52% — thinks Christie is telling the truth compared with 34% who believe he is not. 15% are unsure.

By party:

While 61% of Republicans think Christie is mostly telling the truth, 20% believe he is not being forthright. 19% are unsure.
Not surprisingly, a plurality of Democrats — 41% — says Christie is not telling the whole truth. However, 34% report he is being honest with the public. 24% are unsure.
Nearly half of independent voters — 47% — think Christie is telling the truth while 31% say he is not. 23% are unsure.

Do Americans know that members of Christie’s staff have been implicated in creating these traffic jams? Slightly more than seven in ten residents — 71% — have at least some knowledge of the political scandal. This includes 39% of Americans who know a lot about the story and 32% who have some awareness of the controversy. 30% report they know nothing about the issue. Do Americans think Governor Christie is a bully or a strong leader? Nearly half — 47% — say he comes across as a strong leader while 27% describe him as a bully. 26% are unsure.

By party:

About seven in ten Republicans nationally — 71% — consider Christie to be a strong leader. 11% call him a bully, and 18% are unsure.
There is little consensus among Democrats. 38% say he is a bully while 36% think he comes across as a strong leader. 27% are unsure.
47% of independent voters think Christie is a strong leader while 26% believe he is a bully. 27% are unsure.

Table: Has the George Washington Bridge Controversy Made You Like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie More or Less?

Table: Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Telling the Truth about the George Washington Bridge Controversy?

Table: Awareness of the George Washington Bridge Traffic Controversy

Table: Does New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Come Across as a Bully or Strong Leader?

No Clear Front-runner in Crowded GOP Field… One in Four Undecided

There has been much speculation about whether or not Christie will seek the Republican nomination for president in 2016. How would Christie fare against his potential GOP opponents?

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

16% Chris Christie
12% Paul Ryan
9% Rand Paul
8% Jeb Bush
7% Marco Rubio
6% Rick Perry
5% Rick Santorum
5% Ted Cruz
4% Scott Walker
3% Bobby Jindal
25% undecided

When Marist last reported this question in December, Christie had the support of 18% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents. Paul received the backing of 12% while Ryan — 11%, Cruz — 10%, and Bush — 10% followed closely behind. Sarah Palin garnered 8%, and Rubio had the backing of 7%. At the time, Walker and Santorum each received 4% while 3% supported Perry. 13%, then, were undecided.

How would the GOP contest look without Christie in the mix? Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands without Governor Chris Christie:

15% Paul Ryan
11% Rand Paul
11% Jeb Bush
10% Marco Rubio
7% Rick Santorum
6% Ted Cruz
6% Rick Perry
5% Scott Walker
4% Bobby Jindal
26% undecided

“The Republican field for 2016 clearly lacks a front-runner with or without Chris Christie,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus without Chris Christie

Clinton Widens Lead over Christie in Hypothetical Contest

If Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie were to face off in the 2016 presidential election, Clinton would defeat Christie by double digits. Half of registered voters — 50% — would support Clinton compared with 37% for Christie. 12% are undecided. When Marist last reported this question in December, voters divided. 48% supported Clinton while 45% were behind Christie. Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

Most Democrats — 90% — would support Clinton compared with 3% for Christie. Seven percent are undecided. Last month, 85% were for Clinton while Christie garnered 10%. Five percent were undecided.
More than three in four Republicans — 78% — would cast their ballot for Christie compared with 16% for Clinton. Six percent are undecided. In December, 89% of Republicans supported Christie compared with 6% for Clinton. Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
Independent voters divide. 40% would support Clinton, and 40% would back Christie. 19% are undecided. When this question was previously reported, a majority — 52% — backed Clinton while 40% were for Christie. Eight percent, then, were undecided.

There is a gender gap. While a majority of women would support Clinton, men divide. Among women, 56% back Clinton while 33% are for Christie. 11% are undecided. Among men, 44% are for Clinton compared with 42% for Christie. 15% are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Half of Americans View Clinton Favorably… Christie Still Unknown to More than Four in Ten

50% of adults nationally have a favorable view of Clinton. However, 38% have an unfavorable impression of her. 12% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her. When it comes to Chris Christie, 28% of Americans have a favorable view of him while 30% have an unfavorable one. A notable 42% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

How do Americans currently rate President Barack Obama? Nearly half of residents — 48% — have an unfavorable impression of the president while 41% have a favorable one. 11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Looking at registered voters, there is no difference. 48% have an unfavorable view of President Obama while 41% have a favorable view of him. 11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. In December, a slim majority of registered voters — 52% — had an unfavorable opinion of the president while 46% had a favorable one. Three percent, at that time, had either never heard of Mr. Obama or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability

Table: Chris Christie Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

Tags: Chris Christie, George Washington Bridge, Hillary Clinton, NBC News, New Jersey, President Barack Obama

12/23: Out with the Old and In with the New… NYC Voters Hopeful about de Blasio Administration, Change for the Better on the Way

December 23, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Click Here for Complete December 23, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

When New York City Mayor-elect Bill de Blasio is sworn into office on January 1^st, he will be greeted with great expectations from voters. About two-thirds of registered voters in the city — 66% — are hopeful about de Blasio becoming the next mayor of New York City. 14% are content while 11% are disappointed. Two percent describe themselves as angry, and 7% are unsure.

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Coming off a huge election victory, expectations are sky high for what Bill de Blasio will do for the city as mayor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, not all New Yorkers think that accomplishing his goals will be a slam dunk.”

By party, 72% of Democrats are hopeful about the incoming de Blasio administration. However, Republicans citywide divide. 43% are hopeful while 40% are disappointed. Nearly two-thirds of non-enrolled voters — 64% — are optimistic about de Blasio becoming mayor.

Regardless of borough, at least six in ten voters have a positive feeling about de Blasio assuming the role of mayor. Voters in Brooklyn — 71% — are the most hopeful. 67% of those in Manhattan, 64% of those in the Bronx, and 62% of voters in Queens and Staten Island share this emotion.

How will de Blasio impact New York City? Nearly six in ten — 58% — think he will change the Big Apple for the better. 14% believe he will make the city worse while 13% report he will not change New York City at all. 15% are unsure.

There is a partisan divide. While 65% of Democrats say de Blasio will improve New York City, 49% of Republicans think he will make it worse. 55% of non-enrolled voters say de Blasio will have a positive impact on New York City.

There are also differences by race and borough. More than seven in ten African American voters — 72% — think de Blasio will change the city for the better. 65% of Latino voters citywide agree. However, 49% of white voters in New York City believe he will improve the Big Apple.

Looking at borough, 65% of voters in Brooklyn believe de Blasio will change New York City for the better. This compares with 63% in the Bronx and 56% in Manhattan who say the same. In Queens and Staten Island, 51% think de Blasio will positively affect New York City.

Table: Emotion which Best Describes Feeling about Bill de Blasio becoming NYC Mayor (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: de Blasio’s Impact on NYC (NYC Registered Voters)

Majority with Positive Image of de Blasio

56% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable impression of Mayor-elect de Blasio. 20% have an unfavorable view of him, and 23% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Despite de Blasio’s strong favorable rating, it’s a long way from the campaign trail to City Hall. There has been a decline in the proportion of voters who have a favorable opinion of de Blasio and an increase in the proportion of those who have yet to form an opinion of the soon-to-be-mayor. When the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in November, just before Election Day, more than six in ten voters — 64% — thought favorably of de Blasio. 26% had a lesser impression of him, and only 10% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate de Blasio.

When it comes to de Blasio’s political ideology, 61% of voters believe it is about right. 21% think he is too liberal while only 4% say he is too conservative. 14% are unsure. In November, 56% of voters described de Blasio’s ideology as about right. 29% thought he was too liberal, and 4% said he was too conservative. 11%, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Getting to Know You… Next First Lady of NYC Little-Known to Many Voters

Bill de Blasio’s wife, Chirlane McCray, needs to introduce herself to the New York City electorate. While 46% of voters have a favorable impression of McCray, 45% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her. Eight percent have a negative opinion of McCray.

Table: Chirlane McCray Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track, Says Majority

51% of New York City voters think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction. 36% believe it is traveling in the wrong one, and 13% are unsure. When the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in November, 49% reported the city was on the right course while 42% said it was not. Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Exit Center Stage… Bloomberg Leaves Office with 49% Approval Rating

As Mayor Michael Bloomberg prepares to leave office after 12 years in City Hall, 49% approve of his job performance. This includes 15% who say he is doing an excellent one, and 34% who report he is doing a good one. 30% rate Bloomberg’s performance as fair while 17% think he is performing poorly. Four percent are unsure.

In the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s November survey, 47% approved of Bloomberg’s job performance. 29% believed his performance was average while 20% said he fell short. Three percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg’s Lasting Legacy

How will Mayor Michael Bloomberg be remembered? 50% will recall his time in office positively. Included here are 15% who describe Bloomberg as one of the city’s best mayors and 35% who call him an above average mayor. 31% will remember him as an average mayor while 10% will recall him as a below average one. Eight percent think Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

“Overall, after three terms, New Yorkers think Mayor Bloomberg has done a decent job,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “For most New Yorkers, he has been a commendable mayor.”

When this question was last reported in February, 44% thought Bloomberg’s tenure would be remembered fondly. 37% said his legacy would be an average one while 12% believed Bloomberg would be considered a below average mayor. Eight percent of voters, at that time, said Bloomberg would be recalled as one of the city’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Click Here for Complete December 11, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Tags: Bloomberg approval rating, Bloomberg Legacy, Chirlane McCray favorability, de Blasio, de Blasio favorability, Direction of NYC

12/11: Clinton and Christie Neck and Neck in Hypothetical 2016 Matchup, but Clinton Bests Other Republican Hopefuls

December 11, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

2 Comments

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Hillary Clinton would be the front-runner against a host of potential Republican challengers by double digits. However, there is one exception. She and Chris Christie would be locked in a close contest, separated by just three percentage points.

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Democrats divide about whether they want a nominee who will continue the policies of President Obama or move in a different direction although strong Democrats still want a nominee who will follow in Obama’s footsteps,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Most Republicans still want a nominee who will stand on conservative principles rather than one who may appeal to more moderate voters.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

Clinton receives 48% to 45% for Chris Christie. Seven percent are undecided. In July, Clinton was ahead of Christie by six percentage points, 47% to 41%. 12% were undecided.
When matched against Marco Rubio, 52% back Clinton compared with 42% for Rubio. Five percent are undecided. In the summer, half of voters — 50% — were for Clinton compared with 38% for Rubio. 12% were undecided.
Clinton also has majority support — 53% — when she faces Jeb Bush — 41%. Six percent are undecided. When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 48% were for Clinton compared with 40% for Bush. 12%, at that time, were undecided.
Against Rand Paul, Clinton has 55% to 40% for Paul. Five percent are undecided. In McClatchy-Marist’s July survey, 50% were for Clinton compared with 38% for Paul. 11% were undecided.
Against Paul Ryan, Clinton leads by 16 percentage points. 56% of voters support Clinton compared with 40% for Ryan. Four percent are undecided. Five months ago, 53% were for Clinton compared with 37% for Ryan. Nine percent, then, were undecided.
Clinton — 58% — outpaces Rick Perry — 37% — by more than 20 percentage points. Five percent are undecided. In July, 52% were for Clinton compared with 36% for Perry. 12% were undecided.
When Clinton faces off against Ted Cruz, she garners 57% of the vote to 35% for Cruz. Seven percent are undecided.
Clinton — 59% — outdistances Palin — 36% — by 23 percentage points. Four percent are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Perry

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Palin

Clinton Clear Democratic Front-runner…Christie Edges Competitors in Crowded GOP Field

What are the chances that Clinton would receive her party’s nomination? If she were to declare her candidacy and the primary were held today, Clinton is a strong favorite outdistancing her closest Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, by more than five to one. However, if Clinton were to sit out 2016, Joe Biden defeats his closest competitor, Elizabeth Warren by double digits.

Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

65% Hillary Clinton
12% Joe Biden
9% Elizabeth Warren
3% Andrew Cuomo
1% Martin O’Malley
9% undecided

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 63% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents supported Clinton. 13% backed Biden, and 6% were for Cuomo. One percent supported O’Malley, and 18%, at that time, were undecided.

How would the contest look if Hillary Clinton decided not to run? Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

45% Joe Biden
25% Elizabeth Warren
11% Andrew Cuomo
4% Martin O’Malley
15% undecided

When it comes to the future of the Democratic Party, 49% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents think it’s more important to have a candidate who will continue the policies of President Barack Obama. 46% prefer a nominee who will move in a different direction. Four percent are unsure. However, two-thirds of strong Democrats — 67% — want a nominee who will build upon the Obama presidency compared with only 37% of soft Democrats who share this view. In McClatchy-Marist’s July survey, 46% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents said it was more important for the nominee to advance the policies of Mr. Obama while 44% wanted a candidate who would shift gears. 10%, at that time, were undecided.

Looking at the bid for the Republican nomination, in this hypothetical contest, Chris Christie is ahead of his closest competitor, Rand Paul, by six percentage points. Others follow closely behind.

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

18% Chris Christie
12% Rand Paul
11% Paul Ryan
10% Ted Cruz
10% Jeb Bush
8% Sarah Palin
7% Marco Rubio
4% Scott Walker
4% Rick Santorum
3% Rick Perry
13% undecided

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 15% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents were for Christie compared with 13% for Paul Ryan. 12% were behind Rubio while Jeb Bush garnered 10%. Nine percent supported Rand Paul while Cruz received the backing of 7%. Perry had 4% while Walker and Santorum each garnered 2%. One percent supported Bobby Jindal, and an additional 1% backed Susana Martinez. One in four — 25% — was undecided.

A Republican nominee who stands on conservative principles is more important than one who can win, according to 67% of Republicans and Republican leading independents. However, more than three in ten — 31% — say the priority should be a candidate who can win the White House. Two percent are unsure. Similar proportions shared these views in July. At that time, 64% thought it was more important for the nominee to reflect GOP principles while 31% preferred a strong candidate who could defeat his or her Democratic opponent. Five percent were unsure.

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus without Hillary Clinton

Table: Priority for Democratic Presidential Nominee: the Same or Different Vision as President Obama

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Republican Presidential Nominee: Conservative Principles or Electability