5/24: Defining Gender

Americans divide about how society should define gender, according to an Exclusive Point Taken-Marist Poll, commissioned by WGBH Boston for its new late-night, multi-platform PBS debate series Point Taken.  Most Americans do, however, recognize greater acceptance of transgender or gender fluid people in the United States.  In fact, nine in ten Americans think transgender individuals should receive equal protection under the law when it comes to both employment and housing.  Although fewer, nearly two-thirds of residents nationally also think the transgender community should have the same type of legal protection when it comes to public restrooms.

The national survey was conducted by The Marist Poll in advance of this week’s Point Taken episode, airing Tuesday, May 24th at 11pmET (check local listings) and streaming on pbs.org/pointtaken. The series is hosted by Carlos Watson, Emmy Award winning journalist and OZY Media co-founder and CEO.

45% of Americans think the sex listed on a person’s birth certificate is the only way to define a person’s gender.  41% of residents, though, think that definition is outdated and needs to be updated to include a person’s gender identity.  A majority of Americans who know a transgender or gender fluid person, 50%, are more likely than those who do not, 34%, to say the definition of gender should be revised to include identity.  Women, 48%, and residents under 45 years old, 47%, are more likely than men, 33%, and Americans 45 or older, 35%, to have this view.  Regional differences are also present.  Americans living in the Northeast, 51%, and West, 49%, are more likely than residents in the Midwest, 24%, to believe the meaning of gender should move beyond the sex listed on a person’s birth certificate and should include how a person self-describes his or her identity.  Americans who live in the South divide.  41% share this view, and 43% believe gender should remain defined as an individual’s sex at birth.

“These results help set the table for tonight’s Point Taken as we go beyond the headlines to explore Americans’ point of view about gender rights,” says Denise DiIanni, series creator and Senior Executive-in-Charge.

Despite the divide about how gender should be defined, most Americans, 80%, think greater acceptance of transgender and gender fluid people exists in today’s society than a decade ago.  90% of U.S. residents also think the transgender community should receive the same rights and protections as other Americans when it comes to both employment and housing.  However, support is not as overwhelming when it comes to public restrooms.  While nearly two-thirds of residents, 64%, report transgender people should have equal rights in this area, 27% do not think they should receive equal protection under the law when it comes to public restrooms.  Americans under 45 years of age, 70%, are more likely than their older counterparts, 57%, to say transgender people should receive the same rights as other Americans.  Interestingly, 22% of those who know someone who is transgender or gender fluid do not think rights pertaining to public restrooms should be the same for all Americans.

On the question of whether public restrooms should be gender neutral, six in ten Americans, 60%, think restrooms should be separated as male and female and should not be gender neutral.  31% say public bathrooms should be gender neutral for anyone to use.  Residents 45 years of age and older, 67%, men, 66%, and white Americans, 65%, are more likely than those under 45 years old, 54%, women, 55%, and non-white Americans, 52%, to say public restrooms should be labeled as “male” or “female.”

Should transgender and gender fluid individuals be allowed to choose the public restroom with which they identify?  Americans divide.  43% report individuals should be allowed to make that decision while 44% say transgender people should use the bathroom that correlates with the sex on his or her birth certificate.  Americans who know someone who is transgender, 51%, and women, 50%, are more likely than those who do not know someone who is transgender, 39%, and men, 37%, to assert transgender individuals should be able to choose which restroom they use.  Americans living in the Northeast, 53%, and West, 52%, and Millennials, 54%, are more likely than their counterparts to have this view.

Close to six in ten Americans, 59%, say they do not know someone who is transgender or gender fluid.  A notable 39% of the American public say they do.

This survey of 507 adults was conducted May 12th through May 14th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with WGBH’s Point Taken.  Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the contiguous United States were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English by telephone using live interviewers.  Results are statistically significant within ±4.4 percentage points.  The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.

Complete May 24, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Release
Complete May 24, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 1: Gender, Race, Age, Education, Income)
Complete May 24, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 2: Generation, Party ID, Ideology)
Marist Poll Methodology
Marist Poll Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

5/17: The Role of the United States in the Middle East

Nearly half of Americans think the United States’ involvement in the Middle East is doing more harm than good in the region, according to an Exclusive Point Taken-Marist Poll, commissioned by WGBH Boston for its new late-night, multi-platform PBS debate series Point Taken.  Despite the proportion of Americans who perceive a harmful effect of U.S. presence in the region, there is little consensus about the appropriate level of American military intervention in the Middle East.  However, regardless of where residents stand on the question of U.S. military involvement in the Middle East, nearly two-thirds of Americans say the best reason for staying in the region is the need to defeat ISIS.

The national survey was conducted by The Marist Poll in advance of this week’s Point Taken episode, airing Tuesday, May 17th at 11pmET (check local listings) and streaming on pbs.org/pointtaken. The series is hosted by Carlos Watson, Emmy Award winning journalist and OZY Media co-founder and CEO.

49% of Americans report the United States’ role in the Middle East is doing more harm than good while 27% believe the opposite is true.  A notable 25% of U.S. residents are unsure.  Attitudes differ based on generation and political party.  Millennials, 56%, are the most likely of all the generations to have this view.  A notable 33% of Gen X are unsure.  Looking at party, Republicans, 57%, are more likely than Democrats, 42%, to think U.S. involvement in the Middle East does more harm than good.  52% of independents share this opinion.

When it comes to the extent of the United States’ role in the Middle East, 46% of Americans report the United States should either increase its military presence, 23%, or keep it at its current levels, 23%.  In contrast, 39% of U.S. residents believe the nation should either decrease its military involvement, 24%, or completely withdraw from the region, 15%.  14% are unsure.

Here, too, partisan and generational differences exist.  Republicans, 40%, are more likely than Democrats, 16%, and independents, 21%, to think the United States should increase its military presence in the Middle East.  Generationally, Millennials, 33%, are more likely than other generations to think the United States should decrease its military presence in the region.

“With the rise of ISIS and related global events, the Middle East is widely covered in the news.  Point Taken delves behind the headlines,” says Denise DiIanni, series creator and Senior-Executive-in-Charge.  “In tonight’s episode we ask whether the U.S. is doing more harm or good in the region.”

Regardless of whether or not Americans think the United States should have a military role in the Middle East, 64% of residents believe the best reason for remaining in the region is to defeat ISIS.

A majority of Americans, 53%, also assert they prefer the United States to focus its diplomatic and military resources on the Middle East rather than Asia.

This survey of 507 adults was conducted May 12th through May 14th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with WGBH’s Point Taken.  Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the contiguous United States were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English by telephone using live interviewers.  Results are statistically significant within ±4.4 percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.

Complete May 17, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Release
Complete May 17, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 1: Gender, Race, Age, Education, Income)
Complete May 17, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 2: Generation, Party ID, Ideology)
Marist Poll Methodology
Marist Poll Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

5/10: Reparations for Slavery in the United States?

Although nearly seven in ten Americans oppose paying reparations to African Americans who are descendants of slaves for the harm and racial discrimination caused by slavery, opinion divides along racial lines according to an Exclusive Point Taken-Marist Poll, commissioned by WGBH Boston for its new late-night, multi-platform PBS debate series Point Taken.  While white Americans overwhelmingly oppose restitution, a majority of African Americans favor redress.  Latino Americans divide.

Nearly six in ten Americans assert the current wealth of the United States is not significantly tied to work done in the past by slaves, although most consider the history of slavery and other forms of racial discrimination to be at least a minor factor in the gap in wealth between white and black Americans.  Here too, opinions differ based on racial background.

The national survey was conducted by The Marist Poll in advance of this week’s Point Taken episode, airing Tuesday, May 10th at 11pmET (check local listings) and streaming on pbs.org/pointtaken. The series is hosted by Carlos Watson, Emmy Award winning journalist and OZY Media co-founder and CEO.

68% of residents nationally do not think the United States should pay reparations to descendants of slaves, and a similar proportion of American adults, 72%, argue that the United States should not compensate African Americans, in general, for the harm caused by slavery and other forms of racial discrimination.

White Americans, 81%, are much more likely than African Americans, 35%, and Latinos, 47%, to oppose giving monetary compensation to descendants of slaves.  Similarly, 85% of white residents, but, only 32% of African-American adults are against giving reparations to all African-American citizens.  Of note, Latinos divide about whether or not reparations should be paid to the descendants of slaves.  However, a majority of Latinos, 54%, do not support paying reparations to all African Americans for the harm caused by slavery.

Differences based on generation are also present.  Millennials are more likely than older generations to favor paying reparations to, both, the descendants of slaves and the larger African-American community.  However, 49% of millennials oppose providing compensation to the descendants of slaves, and a majority, 56%, is against paying reparations to African Americans, in general.

Greater support for reparations exists when the question spotlights private companies who admitted and apologized for profiting from American slavery.  Still, 58% of Americans say these companies should not pay money to descendants of slaves, and 65% oppose paying reparations to the larger African American population for the harm and racism stemming from slavery.

Again, differences based on race and generation exist.  African Americans, 75%, are more likely than whites, 25%, and Latinos, 54%, to support reparations to the descendants of slaves paid by companies who admit to profiting from slavery.  Millennials, 55% are more likely than older Americans to favor these private companies paying reparations.

When it comes to these private companies giving monetary compensation to the overall African-American community, 64% of African Americans and 53% of Latinos, compared with 18% of whites, favor such payments.  While a majority of millennials, 51%, oppose such action, they are more likely than their older counterparts to support this proposal.

“These results, while not surprising, are indeed striking in the persistent racial divide in attitudes about reparations. Tonight, Point Taken delves into this sensitive and provocative subject,”says Denise DiIanni, series creator and Senior Executive-in-Charge.

59% of Americans say the current wealth of the United States is not significantly tied to work done in the past by slaves.  But, 71% of residents think the history of slavery and other forms of racial discrimination is at least a minor factor in the wealth disparity between white and black Americans.  Included here are 40% of residents who believe this is a major factor in the wealth gap.

African Americans, 66%, are more likely than whites, 21%, and Latinos, 44%, to say the wealth of the United States is significantly tied to work done by slaves. Generationally, millennials, 44%, are more likely than older generations to report the current wealth of the United States is significantly tied to work done by slaves.  46% say there is not a significant link.

Spanning all demographic groups, at least a majority thinks the history of slavery and other forms of racial discrimination in the United States is at least a minor factor in the gap of wealth between white and black Americans.  However, there are some notable distinctions.  90% of African Americans, compared with 81% of Latinos and 66% of whites, have this view.  In fact, 73% of African Americans consider slavery and discrimination to be a major factor in that disparity.  Millennials, 56%, are also more likely than other generations to perceive this to be a major factor.

Many Americans, 69%, including half of African Americans, think slavery and racial discrimination is part of the history of the United States, but it is time to move beyond it.  27% believe slavery and racial discrimination is a wrong that still needs to be made right by the U.S. government.  Whites, 76%, are more likely than Latinos, 56%, and African Americans, 50%, to think the nation should move beyond this concern.  Of note, 49% of African Americans report this is a wrong that still needs to be corrected.  Millennials, 57%, are the least likely of the generations to believe it’s time to put the issue of slavery behind the nation and are the most likely to report that it is still a wrong that needs to be made right by the U.S. government, 40%.

This survey of 1,221 adults was conducted April 27th and April 28th and May 2nd through May 4th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with WGBH’s Point Taken. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the contiguous United States were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English by telephone using live interviewers.  Results are statistically significant within ±2.8 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Complete May 10, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Release 

Complete May 10, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 1: Gender, Race, Age, Education, Income) 

Complete May 10, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 2: Generation, Party ID, Ideology) 
Marist Poll Methodology 
Marist Poll Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

5/1: IN: Trump Leads, Clinton and Sanders Close

In the quest for the Republican nomination, businessman Donald Trump, 49%, is ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 34%, by 15 points among likely Republican primary voters in Indiana.  Ohio Governor John Kasich trails far behind with 13%.  Trump has the advantage among many key demographic groups.  He especially outdistances his opponents among likely Republican primary voters who self-identify as moderate or conservative, those who are over 45, without a college education, or who are men.  Cruz does best among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves as very conservative.

59% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference report they strongly support their choice of candidate.  66% of Trump’s backers compared with 56% of Cruz’s supporters and 40% of those for Kasich say they are firmly committed to their candidate selection.

When it comes to the second choice of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, 39% select Kasich followed by Cruz, 31%, and Trump, 18%.

Last week, Cruz and Kasich announced they would team up to defeat Donald Trump in Indiana.  However, 63% of likely Republican primary voters say the alliance is not a factor in deciding their vote, including 63% of Trump’s supporters, 66% of Cruz’s backers, and 53% of likely GOP voters for Kasich.  37% say it is a factor, including 22% who say it is a major factor and 15% who report it is a minor factor.

58% of likely Republican primary voters say they disapprove of the deal between Cruz and Kasich to stop Trump at all costs and think it is further proof that the Republicans are trying to rig the game against Trump.  34% of likely GOP voters approve of the coalition to stop Trump at all costs.

Should the Republicans face a contested convention this summer, nearly two-thirds of likely Republican voters in Indiana, 64%, say that the candidate with the most votes should be the GOP nominee even if he does not receive a majority of delegates before the convention.  This includes 88% of likely Republican primary voters for Trump but also 42% of Cruz’s supporters and 29% of those who back Kasich.  29% of likely GOP voters believe if no one gets a majority, the delegates should select the person they think would be the best nominee, including 64% of Kasich’s supporters.

“After the Acela primary, there is an aura of inevitability surrounding the Trump and Clinton candidacies,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “In Indiana, Trump is positioned to corral all the delegates which will be a big prize toward winning the nomination outright.  Clinton and Sanders are more likely to divide the delegate pool which will do little to change the narrative on the Democratic side.”

Looking at the Democratic contest, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 50%, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 46%, are closely matched among likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana.  Clinton’s support is bolstered by likely Democratic primary voters who are 45 years of age or older among whom she receives 70%.  Sanders’ support is buoyed by likely Democratic primary voters who are under 45 years old, among whom he is supported by 70%.  He also does well among those who are first-time or independent voters.  While Clinton, 57%, outpaces Sanders, 39%, among women, Sanders, 55%, leads Clinton, 41%, among men.

71% of likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  71% of Clinton’s supporters and 70% of Sanders’ backers express a firm level of commitment to their choice of candidate.

In hypothetical general election contests, all three Republican candidates lead Clinton.   Sanders, however, is closely matched among registered voters statewide against Trump, Cruz, and Kasich.

A plurality of the Indiana electorate, 42%, considers Trump’s statements on the campaign trail to be frequently insulting and thinks that he has the wrong approach on many issues.  Included here are 73% of Democrats but only 38% of independents and 20% of Republicans.  26% say Trump’s manner and language are bothersome, but he raises important issues, and 21% believe Trump tells it like it is and has the right approach on many issues.  10% percent do not think any of these statements describe Trump’s manner.

Turning to the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Todd Young, 56%, outdistances Marlin Stutzman, 24%, among likely Republican primary voters in Indiana.  A notable 19% are undecided.

42% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  49% of Stutzman’s supporters, compared with 39% of Young’s backers, say they will not waver in their commitment to their candidate.

Indiana residents divide about the job performance of Governor Mike Pence.  42% of adults statewide, including 63% of likely Republican primary voters, approve of the job he is doing in office while 41% disapprove.  A notable 17% are unsure.

Looking at President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the Hoosier State, 42% of adults statewide, including 84% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of the president’s performance.  50% disapprove.

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Indiana

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Indiana (Adults, Registered Voters, and Potential Electorates)

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Indiana (Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters)

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Indiana (Likely Democratic Presidential Primary Voters)

Complete May 1, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Senate Tables of Indiana (Likely Republican Primary Voters and Potential Republican Electorates)

Marist Poll Methodology for Indiana

Nature of the Sample for Indiana

4/24: PA: Trump and Clinton with Double-Digit Leads

In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination in Pennsylvania, businessman Donald Trump, 45%, outpaces Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 27%, by 18 points among likely Republican primary voters statewide.  Ohio Governor John Kasich follows with 24%.  Trump leads his rivals among many key demographic groups.  Of note, Trump and Cruz are competitive among white evangelical Christians and those who describe themselves as very conservative.  Trump and Kasich vie for likely GOP voters who are college graduates or moderates.

Six in ten Republican likely primary voters with a candidate preference, 60%, say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Among those who support Trump, 72% report they are firmly committed to their choice.  This compares with 52% of Cruz’s backers and 47% of Kasich’s supporters who express the same level of support.

Looking at the second choice candidate of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 40%, is the most mentioned followed by Cruz, 30%.  18% say Trump is their second choice candidate for the Republican nomination.

“Trump and Clinton are both positioned to win the popular vote,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For the Democrats, it’s all about delegate counts.  But, for the Republicans, the popular vote doesn’t guarantee a big chunk of the delegates at the convention.  Many will not be committed to a candidate after Tuesday and will need convincing.”

In the race for the Democratic nomination for president, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 55%, has a 15 point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 40%, among likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania.  Clinton does especially well among likely Democratic primary voters who are 45 years of age or older or are African American.  Sanders does best among first-time voters, those who are under 45 years old, or those who identify as very liberal.  While Clinton leads Sanders by 28 points among women, Sanders, 49%, and Clinton, 45%, are competitive among men.

Seven in ten likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference, 70%, say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Clinton’s supporters, 71%, and Sanders’ backers, 68%, report they will not waver in their commitment to their candidate.

In hypothetical general election contests, Clinton and Sanders have the advantage over their potential Republican rivals, with one exception.  When Clinton, 45%, and Kasich, 48%, are paired against each other, the two are competitive among Pennsylvania registered voters.  In each of these potential general election contests, Sanders outperforms Clinton against the Republicans.

On the statewide level, 45% of Pennsylvania adults approve of Governor Tom Wolf’s job performance.  40% disapprove, and 15% are unsure.  Looking at the approval rating of Senator Pat Toomey, 42% approve of how he is doing his job, 28% disapprove, and a notable 30% are unsure.

What effect, if any, will the controversy surrounding the confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, have on Toomey’s re-election bid in November?  If Toomey agrees with his Republican colleagues to deny Garland confirmation hearings, a plurality of registered voters, 45%, say it will make no difference to their vote.  But, more than one in three, 34%, reports they would be less inclined to support Toomey.  18% say they would be more likely to vote for him.  If Toomey disagrees with his Republican colleagues and wants to hold confirmation hearings now, a majority, 54%, reports it will not influence whom they will support for the U.S. Senate.  More than one in four voters, 26%, think it would make them more likely to cast their ballot for Toomey.  17% say it would make them less likely to do so.

Pennsylvania adults divide about President Obama’s job performance.  49% of residents, including 82% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of how the president is doing his job.  46% disapprove.

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Pennsylvania

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete April 24, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for Pennsylvania

Nature of the Sample for Pennsylvania

 

4/19: Majority Opposes Increased Numbers of Refugees, But…

A majority of Americans do not believe that the United States should allow more refugees into the country, according to an Exclusive Point Taken-Marist Poll, commissioned by WGBH Boston for its new late-night, multi-platform PBS debate series Point Taken.  However, about half of Americans think the United States has a moral obligation to aid refugees and do not think they pose a significant threat to the nation.  The issue at hand is the number of refugees allowed into the country.  Tolerance for allowing those seeking asylum has grown over the last 80 years, and today, millennials are among those who are most lenient.

The national survey was conducted by The Marist Poll in advance of this week’s Point Taken episode, airing Tuesday April 19, 2016 at 11pmET (check local listings) and streaming on pbs.org/pointtaken. The series is hosted by Carlos Watson, Emmy Award winning journalist and OZY Media co-founder and CEO.

A majority of Americans, 53%, think the United States should take in fewer refugees than it currently does while 35% report the nation should allow more refugees into the country.  40% of U.S. residents consider refugees to be a significant threat to the United States compared with 51% who disagree.  Among those who see refugees as a threat, more than two-thirds, 67%, perceive the nature of the threat to be terrorism as opposed to, economic, 19%, or cultural, 11%.

By about two to one, Millennials, 54%, are much more likely than members of any other generation to think more refugees should be allowed into the United States, and they are the least likely to consider refugees to be a threat.  Differences based on education are also present.  A majority of non-college graduates, 57%, think fewer refugees should be allowed into the country.  Residents with a college degree divide.  46% think fewer refugees should be allowed into the country while 44% believe more should be permitted.  And, by nearly two-to-one, those without a college education, 48%, are more likely than college graduates, 25%, to consider refugees to be a threat to the country.  Men, 46%, are also more likely than women, 34%, to say refugees are a threat to the nation.

“The issue of allowing refugees into this country is a complex one,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Americans are torn between what they feel should be done ethically and their concerns for security.”

“These results show the many and varied viewpoints Americans have.  Tonight’s Point Taken broadcast, which will include social media contributions, is a great opportunity to continue the dialogue,” says Denise DiIanni, series creator and Executive-in-Charge.

While a majority of Americans oppose opening the borders to more refugees, half of residents, 50%, think the United States is not legally but is morally required to take in refugees.  But, tolerance for permitting refugees into the United States has also increased since the late 1930’s.

A majority of U.S. residents, 53%, believe Syrian refugees should be encouraged or allowed to come to the United States.  Included here, are 25% who say we should welcome refugees even if the country needs to increase the level of immigrants allowed into the country and 28% who think the U.S. should allow refugees but do not support raising the quotas.  35% of residents think refuges should be kept out of the United States given the nation’s current conditions.  In a 1938 Roper/Fortune Survey, only 23% of Americans encouraged or wanted to allow political refugees from countries such as Germany and Austria to enter the United States, and of those, only 5% supported raising immigration quotas.

When asked the question of whether Syrian refugees should be temporarily banned from entering the United States or if the nation should continue its current policy toward these refugees, nearly half of residents today, 49%, favor the status quo.  43% support a temporary ban.

Millennials are more likely than their older cohorts to assert the United States has a moral obligation to take in refugees, 61%, to think we should encourage or allow refugees to come to the United States, 68%, and to believe the U.S. policy toward Syrian refugees should remain the same, 66%.  College graduates, 62%, and women, 58%, are more likely than non-college graduates, 44%, and men, 43%, to say the U.S. is morally required to allow refugees into the country.  Those with a college degree, 58%, and women, 56%, are also more likely than their counterparts to say Syrian refugees should not be temporarily banned form the country.

On the question of whether Syrian refugees should be encouraged or allowed to enter the United States, college graduates, 69%, are more likely than non-college graduates, 43%, to have this view.  Women, 57%, are more likely than men, 49%, to say refugees should enter the United States.

Six in ten Americans, 60%, say, if they were a member of the incoming Congress, they would vote against a bill to increase the number of Syrian refugees allowed to enter the United States.  33% would vote for such a bill.  However, tolerance has grown.  When the Roper/Fortune Survey asked a similar question about European refugees in 1939, 83% said they would not support such a bill for political refugees.

While millennials, 47%, college graduates, 43%, and women, 40%, are more likely than their counterparts to support such a bill, 48% of millennials, 50% of college graduates, 53% of women say they would vote against the legislation.

Complete April 19, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Release
 
Complete April 19, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 1: Gender, Race, Age, Education, Income) 
Complete April 19, 2016 USA Exclusive Point Taken – Marist Poll Banners (Banner 2: Generation, Party ID, Ideology) 
Marist Poll Methodology 
Marist Poll Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables
 

4/16: NY: Trump with 29 Point Lead over Kasich

In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination, businessman Donald Trump, 54%, leads Ohio Governor John Kasich, 25%, by 29 points among likely Republican primary voters in New York State.  Texas Senator Ted Cruz receives 16% of the likely GOP electorate.  Trump maintains a commanding lead over his Republican rivals.  In the previous NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York, Trump was ahead of Kasich by 33 points.

“Donald Trump is well-positioned to carry New York handily and is likely to acquire a sizeable number of New York’s delegates, as a result,” says Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

 

64% of likely Republican voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  Seven in ten Trump supporters, 70%, say they will not waver in their commitment to him.

 Among likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 37%, is the most mentioned candidate as voters’ second choice.  Cruz follows with 30%, and Trump receives 14%.

 

Complete April 16, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of New York

 Complete April 16, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (Registered Voters)

 Complete April 16, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for New York

Nature of the Sample for New York 

4/15: NY: Clinton with Strong Lead

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 57%, runs ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 40%, by 17 points among New York likely Democratic primary voters in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination.  In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York released earlier this week, Clinton was ahead of Sanders by 14 points.

“As the primary approaches, the back and forth between Clinton and Sanders hasn’t dramatically changed the New York contest for the Democrats in the last few days,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Clinton has maintained her advantage over Sanders by running up a large margin among Democratic primary voters 45 years of age or older.  Sanders retains his lead among first-time voters, those under the age of 45, and likely Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as very liberal.  Looking at region, Clinton is ahead of Sanders by 26 points in New York City and 24 points in the city’s suburbs.  Clinton and Sanders are competitive upstate, 49% to 50%, respectively.

72% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference, compared with 69% of those earlier this week, report they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Clinton’s supporters, 71%, and Sanders’ backers, 72%, express a firm commitment to their choice of candidate.

Turning to the job performances of other prominent office holders in New York State, Governor Andrew Cuomo’s rating remains upside down.  41% of registered voters think Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 7% who say he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one.  55% of voters report Cuomo is doing either a fair, 34%, or poor, 21%, job.  Cuomo’s approval rating has inched up slightly from the 37% score he received in the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last year.

Assessing Cuomo’s approval rating by party, a majority of Democrats, 54%, approve of how the governor is doing in office, up from 43% last spring.  The proportions of Republicans, 25%, and independents, 38%, who give Cuomo high marks are identical to what they were at that time.

Regionally, Cuomo is perceived best in New York City, 47%, and in the city’s suburbs, 45%.  Last time, Cuomo’s approval rating was 44% in the city and 41% in the suburbs.  34% of upstate voters, compared with 31% last May, share this opinion.

43% of voters statewide think the Empire State is moving in the right direction while 48% say it is moving in the wrong one.  This is little changed from last spring when 43% said the state was on track, and 51% thought it was off course.

Regionally, differences exist.  Half of New York City voters, 50%, have a positive opinion of the direction of the state.  43% of those in the suburbs and 38% of voters upstate agree.

The approval rating of New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is at its lowest point since taking office.  35% of voters citywide approve of his job performance.  Included here are 8% of registered voters citywide who think the mayor is doing an excellent job and 27% who say he is doing a good one.  62% think he has done a fair or poor job.  In the November Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 38% approved of de Blasio’s job performance, and 58% did not.  Currently, even a majority of Democrats rate him as fair or poor, 54%.

Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating is down among white voters.  27% of white voters approve of de Blasio’s job performance, down from 32% in the fall.  There is little change among Latinos and African Americans.  36% of Latinos, comparable to the 37% he received last time, approve of how de Blasio is doing his job.  Among African Americans, 49% give de Blasio high scores while 50% did so previously.

When it comes to the direction of New York City, voters’ opinions are upside down.  A majority of New York City voters, 51%, continue to think things in the Big Apple are moving in the wrong direction.  43% believe New York City is moving in the right one.  This is somewhat improved from last fall when 55% thought the city was on the wrong path, and 38% reported it was on the right course.

In contrast, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating among New York registered voters, 52%, is at its highest in three years.  Mr. Obama received an identical score of 52% this time three years ago.  When this question was last reported in May of 2015, 46% of registered voters gave Mr. Obama high scores, and 54% did not.

Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of New York

 Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (New York State Registered Voters)

 Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (New York City Registered Voters)

Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

 Marist Poll Methodology for New York

 Nature of the Sample for New York 

4/13: MD: Trump Up 12 Points over Cruz… Clinton with Commanding Lead over Sanders

In Maryland, businessman Donald Trump has a 12 point lead over Texas Senator Ted Cruz among the likely Republican primary electorate.  On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a wide 22 point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters statewide.

Looking at the Republican contest, Trump receives 41% to 29% for Cruz and 24% for Ohio Governor John Kasich among likely Republican primary voters.

“If the front-runners maintain their leads, Trump and Clinton remain on the path to securing their respective party’s nomination,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “With two weeks to go to the Maryland primary, their rivals need to find a way to close the gap.”

Trump does best among likely Republican primary voters in Maryland who do not practice a religion, Tea Party supporters, earn less than $50,000 annually, or do not have a college degree.  Trump and Cruz tie among white evangelical Christians.  They are also competitive among those who practice a religion and women.  Also noteworthy, Kasich leads by double digits among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves as moderate.

58% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  When compared with Cruz’s supporters, 51%, and Kasich’s backers, 44%, a larger proportion of Trump’s supporters, 71%, report they are firmly committed to their candidate selection.

Among likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 35%, and Cruz, 34%, are the most mentioned second choice.  Trump receives 17%.

On the Democratic side, Clinton, 58%, outpaces Sanders, 36%, by 22 points among likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton leads Sanders among most demographic groups, but she does especially well among likely Democratic primary voters who are women and 45 years of age or older or African Americans.  Sanders has a double-digit lead over Clinton among those who are under 45 years old.

69% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  72% of Clinton’s supporters, compared with 65% of Sanders’ backers, report they strongly support their candidate of choice.

Turning to this fall’s general election, Clinton and Sanders both have large leads over their potential Republican rivals.  They have their greatest advantage when matched against Trump.

In Maryland’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, a majority of likely voters, 57%, are undecided. Kathy Szeliga, 20%, is ahead of Richard Douglas, 13%, and Chrys Kefalas, 9%, among likely Republican primary voters.  Only 28% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  36% somewhat support their selection, and 35% say they might vote differently.

In the Democratic contest for U.S. Senate, Chris Van Hollen, 44%, and Donna Edwards, 38%, are competitive among likely Democratic primary voters.  18% are undecided.  53% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Edwards’ supporters, 55%, and Van Hollen’s backers, 53%, say they strongly support their candidate.

On the issues, more than two-thirds of Maryland residents, 67%, including 68% of registered voters, agree with the change in state law which decriminalizes the possession of small amounts of marijuana.  75% of Democrats, 70% of independents, and even 53% of Republicans agree with the change in the law.

There is less consensus when it comes to legalizing betting on fantasy sports websites such as Fan Duel and Draft Kings.  40% of residents, including the same proportion of registered voters, support such a proposal while 43% oppose it.  17% are undecided.  While pluralities of Republicans, 48%, and Democrats, 44%, are against legalizing such behavior, a plurality of independents, 46%, support it.

A majority of Maryland adults, 59%, including the same proportion of registered voters, think the laws governing the sale of guns should be stricter.  14% say they should be less strict, and 24% report they should be kept as they are.  While most Democrats, 82%, support strengthening the laws governing the sale of firearms, a plurality of Maryland’s GOP, just 36%, believes these laws should be kept as they are.  A plurality of independents, 46%, think the laws should be stricter.

Both Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and President Barack Obama are highly regarded among residents statewide.  More than two-thirds of Maryland adults, 67%, approve of Governor Hogan’s job performance.  15% disapprove.  Looking at the job performance of President Obama, 62% of residents statewide, including 88% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of how the president is doing his job.  31% disapprove.

 Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Release of Maryland

 Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Tables of Maryland (Adults & Registered Voters)

 Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Tables of Maryland (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Tables of Maryland (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC4/Marist Poll Senate Tables of Maryland (Likely Republican Primary Voters, Likely Democratic Primary Voters & Potential Electorates )

Marist Poll Methodology for Maryland

Nature of the Sample for Maryland

 



 

4/12: New York: Trump Well-Positioned for Big Win… Clinton Dems’ Favorite

In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination in New York, businessman Donald Trump is favored by 54% of New York’s likely Republican primary voters.  If he can hold on to a majority of Republican support in the state, the April 19th contest could give him the lion’s share of New York’s delegates.  Ohio Governor John Kasich, 21%, lags behind in second followed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 18%.  Trump has a double-digit lead among key demographic groups.

“The road to the conventions goes through New York for both the Democrats and Republicans,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Right now, the front-runners look like they will erase recent setbacks and add significantly to their delegate margins.  New York is not likely to enhance the hopes of those trying to close the gap in the delegate hunt.”

64% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference or voted by absentee ballot strongly support their choice of candidate.  Among likely Republican primary voters who support Trump, 72% are firmly committed to him.

Looking at the second choice candidate of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 36%, tops the list followed by Cruz, 32%, and Trump, 15%.

In the event that Trump goes to the Republican convention in Cleveland with the most delegates but does not have enough to win the nomination on the first ballot, a majority of likely Republican primary voters in New York, 64%, think Trump should still receive the nomination.  28% assert the GOP should nominate someone else.  If the Republican Party decides to nominate someone else, about six in ten likely Republican primary voters, 59%, say the nominee should be someone who ran in this year’s primary.  32% think it is acceptable to nominate someone who was not a candidate during the primaries.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 55%, leads Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 41%, among likely Democratic primary voters in New York including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who voted by absentee ballot.  Three percent are undecided.

Clinton does best among likely Democratic primary voters in New York who are women and 45 years of age and older or who are African American.  Sanders does best among likely Democratic primary voters who have not participated in primaries in the past, those who are under 45 years old, or those who identify as very liberal. Clinton leads Sanders by 19 points in New York City and by 25 points in the suburbs which surround the city.  Clinton and Sanders are competitive upstate.

69% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate.  More Clinton supporters, 73%, express a firm commitment to their preferred candidate than do backers of Sanders, 63%.

When it comes to party unity, Sanders’ backers are more hesitant than Clinton’s supporters to rally behind their candidate’s opponent if that opponent receives the Democratic nomination.  62% of Sanders’ backers say they will throw their support behind Clinton if she becomes the nominee.  This compares with 77% of Clinton’s supporters who say they will unify behind Sanders if he wins the party’s nod.

Turning to the general election, not surprisingly in this blue state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by two to one, the Democrats have the advantage over the Republicans among New York registered voters.  Both Sanders and Clinton lead their potential GOP rivals by double digits.

Among the Democratic and Republican fields, three candidates, Clinton, Sanders, and Trump, have connections to New York.  Who is the real New Yorker?  When New York residents are asked, 37% say Trump is the authentic New Yorker followed by Sanders, 27%, and Clinton, 26%.  When Democrats are asked to choose between Clinton and Sanders, 42% of the likely Democratic electorate chooses Clinton, and 39% select Sanders.

Looking at President Barack Obama’s approval rating in New York State, 62% of residents, including 87% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of the job the president is doing in office.  33% of residents disapprove.

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release of New York

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Adults & Potential Electorates)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Registered Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete April 12, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for New York

Nature of the Sample for New York

 

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