11/26: Cuomo Well-Positioned to Launch Re-Election Bid

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo is a strong, early favorite to win re-election as he heads into 2014.  When matched against several potential Republican gubernatorial candidates, Cuomo leads each of them by at least 40 percentage points.

“Right now, Governor Cuomo is in good shape to win a second term.  None of Governor Cuomo’s likely challengers are in striking distance,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, voters think any plans Cuomo might have for 2016 need to take a backseat until Hillary Clinton declares her intentions.”

Click Here for Complete November 26, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

If the 2014 election for New York State Governor were held today, here is how Governor Cuomo would fare among registered voters in New York State:

• Against Steve McLaughlin, Cuomo would garner 64% while McLaughlin would receive 24%.  12% are undecided.
• 65% would back Cuomo compared with 23% for Rob Astorino.  12% are undecided.
• If Cuomo were to face off in a rematch against Carl Paladino, Cuomo — 67% — would defeat Paladino — 24% — by 43 percentage points.  Nine percent are undecided.
• 70% of registered voters would support Cuomo in a contest against Donald Trump — 24%.  Seven percent are undecided.

A majority of registered voters in New York State — 52% — approves of the job the governor is doing.  This includes 8% of voters who think Cuomo is doing an excellent job and 44% who describe Cuomo’s job performance as good.  31% give Cuomo fair marks while 13% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 54% of registered voters approved of how Mr. Cuomo was performing in office.  27% rated his job as fair while 14% believed his performance was subpar.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

By party:

• Cuomo’s approval rating is strong among his base.  63% of Democrats statewide think well of how Cuomo is doing his job.  This compares with 66% in April.
• Among Republicans, 39% approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  This is little changed from the spring when 37% had this view.
• Cuomo’s approval rating has changed little among non-enrolled voters.  48% of these voters approve of Cuomo’s job performance compared with 46% in April.

By region:

• New York voters’ rating of Cuomo has changed little throughout the state.
• In New York City, 56% of voters give Cuomo high marks.  A similar 58% had this opinion in the previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll.
• In the suburbs of New York City, 57% applaud Cuomo’s job performance.  Here, too, Cuomo’s approval rating is status quo.  59% of suburban voters thought this way in April.
• A plurality of upstate voters — 47% — approve of how Governor Cuomo is doing his job.  This is comparable to the 48% in this region who said the same in the spring. 

Cuomo also continues to be well-liked in New York State.  Two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — have a favorable view of the governor.  28% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 6% have either never heard of Cuomo or are unsure how to rate him.  In April, similar proportions of registered voters shared these views.  65% had a positive view of Cuomo.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 8% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/McLaughlin

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Astorino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Paladino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Trump

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Cuomo Viewed as Making Positive Mark on Albany and Focused on Empire State

About six in ten registered voters in New York State — 61% — think Cuomo is changing the way things in Albany work for the better.  35% do not think the governor is improving Albany, and 4% are unsure.  In April, 58% of voters thought Governor Cuomo was positively changing state government.  33% had the opposite view, and 9% were unsure.

Is Cuomo paying too much attention to national politics and not enough attention to the Empire State?  59% do not think he is focused on the national agenda while 35% say he is.  Six percent are unsure.  In the spring, 51% of voters believed Cuomo’s attention was focused on New York while 40% thought he was too concerned with national politics.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

What are voters’ perceptions of Cuomo’s political ideology?  45% say he is a moderate.  35% think he is a liberal while 11% believe he is a conservative.  Nine percent are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 38% described Cuomo as a moderate.  34% said he was a liberal, and 13% reported he was conservative.  15%, then, were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Attention to National Politics

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

2016: Cuomo Trails Clinton by 50 Points Among Dems, but Both Lead Christie 

If Cuomo were to turn to the national stage and run for president of the United States in 2016, what would his electoral chances look like?  In this hypothetical contest for the Democratic nomination, among New York State registered Democrats, Cuomo comes in a very distant second behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  Clinton leads all of her potential Democratic opponents by more than four to one in New York.

64% of registered Democrats statewide support Clinton compared with 14% for Andrew Cuomo.  Eight percent back Vice President Joe Biden while Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren garners 6%.  Three percent support Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and 5% are undecided.

On the Republican side, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie leads a crowded GOP primary field.  Among registered Republicans in New York State, Christie has the backing of 40%.  10% are for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul while the same proportion — 10% — supports Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has the support of 8% compared with 5% for Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.  Texas Governor Rick Perry, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker each garners 3%.  New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has the backing of 2%.  An additional 2% support former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.  15% are undecided.

However, when matched against Cuomo or Clinton in the general election contest, Christie does not fare as well in this very blue state.  Cuomo leads Christie, 51% to 44%, among New York’s registered voters.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton has a wider lead over Christie.  57% of registered voters in New York State support Clinton compared with 39% for Christie.  Four percent are undecided.

Table: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary (NYS Democrats)

Table: 2016 Republican Presidential Primary (NYS Republicans)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Cuomo/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Clinton/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Voters Don’t Blame Cuomo for State’s Sluggish Economy 

67% of registered voters think Governor Cuomo inherited the state’s economic woes while 27% say the condition of the economy is a result of his policies.  Five percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist last reported this question, 74% thought Cuomo inherited New York’s economic slump while 17% said the state’s economic conditions are mostly a result of his own policies.  Nine percent were unsure.

Looking at how New York’s economy is performing, a slim majority of registered voters in New York — 51% — say it has stayed about the same.  This compares with 20% who report it has gotten better, and 29% who say it has gotten worse.  In April, nearly identical proportions shared these views.  51% thought New York’s economy was steady state.  21% said it was getting better, and 29% believed it was getting worse.

On the personal side, 52% of New York voters believe their personal family finances will not change in the coming year. 31% think they will get better while 17% believe they will get worse.  In March, 56% said their money matters would be steady state.  25% thought they would improve while 19% said they would decline.

Table: New York State Economic Conditions Inherited or Result of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Policies

Table: New York State Economy

Table: New York State Economy Over Time

 

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year Over Time

Opposition to Hydrofracking Grows

On the issue of hydrofracking, 47% of adults in New York oppose hydrofracking at the Marcellus Shale to extract natural gas.  37% support this technique, and 16% are unsure.  When this question was last reported in March, 39% opposed hydrofracking while 40% supported it.  21%, at that time, were unsure.

The views of registered voters mirror those of New Yorkers overall.  49% are against using hydrofracking while 39% support it. 12% are unsure.  In March, voters divided.  41% opposed hydrofracking, and 40% supported it.  One in five — 20% — was unsure.

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Adults)

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Registered Voters)

State Senate and Assembly Approval Ratings Still in the Basement

While a majority of voters approve of Governor Cuomo’s job performance, the New York State Senate and Assembly do not fare as well.  Only 27% of registered voters in New York State approve of the job the Senate is doing.  Included here are 2% who say they are doing an excellent job and 25% who think they are doing a good one.  47% rate the legislative body’s performance as fair.  22% report they are doing a poor job, and 4% have either never heard of the Senate or are unsure how to rate it.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last released this question in April, 29% gave the Senate high marks.  41% thought its performance was average, and 26% said it fell short.  Four percent, at that time, either never heard of it or were unsure how to rate it.

When it comes to the New York State Assembly, 26% think it is doing either an excellent — 2% — or good — 24% — job in office.  47% rate this legislative body’s performance as fair while 23% report its job is subpar.  Four percent are unsure.

In that previous survey, 27% of voters thought highly of how the Assembly was performing its job.  42% gave it mediocre marks while 24% said it was performing poorly.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Half Say State Moving in Right Direction 

50% of registered voters think New York State is traveling on the right course.  45%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong direction, and 5% are unsure.  In April, 53% of voters said the Empire State was on the right course.  41% believed it was off track.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS Over Time

Steady State for Schumer and Gillibrand

A majority of voters continue to give Chuck Schumer a positive rating for his performance as senator.  56% of registered voters in New York State approve of how Schumer is doing his job.  This includes 17% who say Schumer is doing an excellent job and 39% who think he is doing a good one.  26% rate Schumer’s performance in office as fair while 15% say he is doing a poor job.  Four percent have either never heard of Schumer or are unsure how to rate him.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 58% praised Schumer.  24% thought he did an average job, and 13% said he fell short.  Six percent, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

There has also been little change in the perception of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance.  47% think Gillibrand is doing either an excellent — 13% — or good — 34% — job.  30% give Gillibrand fair marks while 12% say she is performing poorly in her post.  12% have either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

In April, 48% approved of Gillibrand’s job performance.  27% gave her average grades while 9% said she performed poorly.  17% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

Obama Approval Rating at Lowest Point in New York State

Four in ten registered voters — 40% — approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  This is Obama’s lowest approval rating in New York since taking office.  Included in Mr. Obama’s approval rating are 11% who think he is doing an excellent job and 29% who believe he is doing a good one.  25% give him fair marks while 36% rate the president’s job performance as poor.  Less than 1% has either never heard of Obama or are unsure how to rate him.

The president’s approval rating has plummeted.  In April, 52% gave the president high marks.  22% thought his job performance was average while 26% said he fell short.  One percent, at that time, had either never heard of Obama or was unsure how to rate him.

Table: Obama Approval Rating

Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

11/4: De Blasio with BIG Lead over Lhota Going into Election Day

The clock is counting down to Election Day, and in this final NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Democrat Bill de Blasio has a very wide lead over Republican Joe Lhota among New York City likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  De Blasio has the support of 65% of likely voters while Lhota receives 24%.  Independence candidate Adolfo Carrion has 4% while 1% of likely voters citywide wants another candidate to be elected.  Six percent are undecided.

Click Here for Complete November 4, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“Bill de Blasio continues to be the overwhelming favorite with New York City voters while Joe Lhota can’t get any traction,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Even a Peyton Manning fourth quarter comeback wouldn’t be enough to close this large gap.”

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist reported this question last month, 67% of likely voters citywide supported de Blasio.  23% backed Lhota while Carrion had the support of 2%.  One percent was for another candidate, and 7% were undecided.

By party:

• Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 79% are for de Blasio compared with 14% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  In October, 82% backed de Blasio while 13% were for Lhota.  One percent was behind Carrion.
• When it comes to likely Republican voters, 71% are for Lhota while 21% are for de Blasio.  Three percent support Carrion.  In that previous survey, 69% of likely Republican voters backed Lhota while 16% were for de Blasio, and 1% supported Carrion.
• Among non-enrolled voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 50% support de Blasio.  29% are for Lhota while 11% back Carrion.  Last month, 58% of likely non-enrolled voters were for de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota.  Seven percent, at that time, backed Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio receives, at least, majority support.   Among African American voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 90% support de Blasio.  Lhota and Carrion each receives 2%.  72% of Latino voters are for de Blasio while 10% are for Lhota, and 9% back Carrion.  Among likely voters who are white, 53% support de Blasio, 39% back Lhota, and 2% are for Carrion.

Before last Wednesday’s debate, 65% of likely voters supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Carrion received the support of 4% while 1% wanted another candidate to be mayor.  Six percent were undecided.  After the debate, 65% supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Three percent backed Carrion while 1% were for another candidate.  Seven percent were undecided.

“The debate season has come and gone,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, the debates this fall have done more to reinforce voters’ impressions of the candidates than to change the character of the race.”

How strongly do likely voters citywide support their choice of candidate?  61% say they strongly support their selection for mayor while 30% are somewhat committed to their choice.  Eight percent might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick, and 9% said they might vote differently.  Two percent were unsure.

65% of likely voters who support de Blasio say they will not waver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 54% of likely voters who back Lhota and say they are strongly committed to him.  Last month, 56% of de Blasio’s backers reported they strongly supported him while 49% of Lhota’s backers had a similar level of intensity.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, de Blasio — 63% — is ahead of Lhota — 21% — by 42 percentage points.  Carrion receives the support of 5% while 1% wants someone else to be elected.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Done Deal for de Blasio?

Most registered voters in New York City think, regardless of who they plan to support, de Blasio will defeat Lhota tomorrow.  83% of voters believe de Blasio will win while only 8% think Lhota will be victorious.  Nine percent are undecided.  Even an overwhelming proportion of Lhota’s backers — 81% — think de Blasio will be the city’s next mayor.

Table: Who Do You Think Will Win the Election for New York City Mayor? (NYC Registered Voters)

About Two-Thirds Perceive de Blasio Favorably… Upside Down Rating for Lhota 

64% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable opinion of de Blasio.  26% have an unfavorable one, and 10% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In October, similar proportions shared these views.  65% of registered voters thought well of de Blasio.  23% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 12%, at that time, had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Lhota, 47% have an unfavorable view of him.  32% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 43% of registered voters had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota while 32% had a favorable one.  25% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Trumps Lhota on the Issues 

About two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — think de Blasio is the candidate who is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  18%, however, say Lhota is the candidate who will improve affordability in the city.  15% are unsure.  Last month, 67% of registered voters thought de Blasio was more capable to make the city affordable.  19% had this impression of Lhota, and 14%, at that time, were unsure.

Looking at crime in the city, 48% of registered voters believe de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 32% think Lhota is better able to keep the city safe.  About one in five — 19% — is unsure.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 52% said de Blasio would make the city safer.  31% believed Lhota was better able to keep crime down, and 17% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Ideologically Speaking 

What are voters’ impressions of de Blasio’s political ideology?  A majority of registered voters — 56% — thinks his ideology is about right.  29% say he is too liberal while 4% say he is too conservative.  11% are unsure.  In October, 59% thought de Blasio’s ideology was in line.  24% reported he was too liberal while 3% said he was too conservative.  14% were unsure.

When it comes to Lhota’s political ideology, 34% say his ideology is about right.  35% believe Lhota is too conservative while 8% say Lhota is too liberal.  23% are unsure.  Last month, 35% of registered voters reported Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while only 8% believed he was too liberal.  26%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Time for Change, Say More than Six in Ten 

64% of registered voters want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 31% want him to continue Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s policies.  Six percent are unsure.  There has been little change since NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s October survey.  At that time, 66% wanted a departure from Bloomberg’s policies.  29% reported they thought the city’s current policies should be continued, and 6% were unsure.

So, how do voters think Bloomberg is doing in office?  47% say he is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 13% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one.  29% rate Bloomberg’s approval rating as fair while 20% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 45% gave Bloomberg high marks.  34% said he was doing a fair job while 18% thought Bloomberg’s job performance was subpar.  Two percent were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

The City’s Course

49% of registered voters think New York City is moving in the right direction while 42% believe it is moving in the wrong one.  Nine percent are unsure.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 46% of voters thought the city was traveling on the right road while 46% said it needed a new path.  Eight percent were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/18: McAuliffe Leads Cuccinelli by 8 Percentage Points in Virginia Governor’s Race

In the contest for Virginia governor, Democrat Terry McAuliffe receives the support of 46% of Virginia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot compared with 38% for his Republican challenger, Ken Cuccinelli.  Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis garners 9% of the vote while 1% backs another candidate.  Seven percent of Virginia likely voters are undecided.

Click Here for Complete October 18th, 2013 Virginia NBC4/NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Just when Cuccinelli needed to start closing the gap against McAuliffe, the government shutdown became a huge roadblock,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The big question is whether or not Cuccinelli can now overcome the damaged GOP brand and his own high negative rating to make the contest more competitive.”

When NBC4/NBC News/Marist last reported this question in September, McAuliffe — 43% — edged Cuccinelli — 38% — among likely voters statewide.  Sarvis had the support of 8% while 1% backed another candidate.  10%, at that time, were undecided.

Key points:

• Party ID.  A wide partisan divide exists.  Most Democrats who are likely to vote — 88% — support McAuliffe while most Republicans likely to cast a ballot are for Cuccinelli — 83%.  This is little changed from last month when 89% of likely Democratic voters supported McAuliffe, and 83% of likely Republican voters were for Cuccinelli.  Among independent voters who are likely to vote, 41% are for McAuliffe while 33% are for Cuccinelli.  15% support Sarvis.  In September, the contest among independent voters was slightly closer.  36% of independent voters were behind McAuliffe while 34% backed Cuccinelli.  15%, at that time, supported Sarvis.
• Gender.  A gender gap still exists.  McAuliffe — 52% — leads Cuccinelli — 32% — by double digits among women who are likely to vote.  However, among men who are likely to cast a ballot, Cuccinelli — 44% — edges McAuliffe — 40%.  Last month, McAuliffe — 50% — outpaced Cuccinelli — 32% — among women.  Among men, Cuccinelli — 44% — led McAuliffe — 36% — by eight percentage points.
• Intensity of Support.  60% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Virginia governor say they strongly support their choice.  32% somewhat support their candidate, and 8% might vote differently.  Only 1% is unsure.  In NBC4/NBC News/Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions held these views.  59% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Virginia governor were firmly committed to their choice while 31% were somewhat behind him.  Nine percent said they might vote differently, and 1% was unsure.  Among Cucinelli’s supporters, 67% strongly support him while 57% of McAuliffe’s backers express a similar level of commitment to him.  In September, 60% of Cuccinelli’s supporters and 59% of McAuliffe’s backers said they would not waver in their commitment to their choice of candidate.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, McAuliffe still leads Cuccinelli.  44% are for McAuliffe while 36% are for Cuccinelli.  Sarvis has the support of 10% while 1% is for another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.  In NBC4/NBC News/Marist’s previous poll, 41% of registered voters were for McAuliffe while 35% supported Cuccinelli.  Eight percent backed Sarvis, and 1% supported another candidate.  14%, at the time, were undecided.

How would the contest look without Sarvis?  Among Virginia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 52% support McAuliffe compared with 43% for Cuccinelli.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (Virginia Likely Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Table: Intensity of Support (Virginia Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup without Sarvis (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Tarnished Images? Voters Divide over McAuliffe… Cuccinelli with High Negatives 

While 40% of Virginia residents have a positive view of McAuliffe, 39% have an unfavorable impression of him.  21% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  42% think well of McAuliffe while 41% have a lesser opinion of the candidate.  17% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Last month, 38% of Virginia residents had a favorable view of McAuliffe.  32% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and a notable 30% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.  Looking at registered voters, 41% had a positive opinion of McAuliffe while 34% had an unfavorable one.  26% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate McAuliffe.

A majority of Virginia residents — 51% — has an unfavorable view of Cuccinelli.  34% have a positive opinion of him, and 15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Comparable portions of registered voters have these opinions.  53% of registered voters have a negative view of Cuccinelli while 36% have a positive one.  12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In last month’s survey, 45% of adults statewide had an unfavorable opinion of Cuccinelli while 31% had a favorable one.  23%, at that time, had either never heard of Cuccinelli or were unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters in Virginia, 47% had a lesser impression of Cuccinelli while 34% had a favorable view of him.  19% had either never heard of Cuccinelli or were unsure how to rate him.

Sarvis has become somewhat better-known to Virginians, but a majority — 56% — still has either never heard of Sarvis or is unsure how to rate him.  23% have a favorable opinion of him, and 21% have an unfavorable view of him.  Among registered voters, a similar 55% have either never heard of Sarvis or are unsure how to rate him.  23% of voters have a positive impression of the candidate while 22% have a negative one.

Last month, 66% of Virginia residents had either never heard of Sarvis or were unsure how to rate him.  20% had a favorable view of the candidate while 15% had an unfavorable impression of him.  Among registered voters, 63%, at that time, did not have a clear opinion of Sarvis.  This compares with 21% who thought well of him and 16% who had an unfavorable opinion of the candidate.

Table: McAuliffe Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Cuccinelli Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Sarvis Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Majority Places Responsibility for Shutdown on Republicans 

When it comes to who is mostly to blame for the government shutdown, a majority of Virginia adults — 53% — say the Republicans in Congress are more at fault.  This compares with 29% who put the onus on President Barack Obama.  15% think each is equally to blame while 3% are unsure.

Similar proportions of registered voters in Virginia have these views.  54% say the Republican members in Congress are to blame while 29% think President Obama is mostly responsible for the shutdown.  14% think the Republicans in Congress and the president equally share the blame while 3% are unsure.

By party, 88% of Democrats think the Republicans in Congress are mostly at fault.  This compares with 60% of Republicans who point the finger at President Obama.  17% of Republicans blame the members of their own party in Congress, and one in five Republicans — 20% — says both Obama and the Congressional GOP are to blame.

Tea Party support makes a difference among the GOP.  Among Republicans who are Tea Party supporters, nearly eight in ten — 78% — believe President Obama is to blame.  However, there is little consensus among Republicans who do not support the Tea Party.  While a plurality — 42% — places the responsibility on the president, a notable 28% blame the Republicans in Congress, and 26% fault both the president and the GOP in Congress.

Looking at independent voters, a majority — 54% — puts the onus on the GOP in Congress while 28% say President Obama is mostly to blame for the shutdown.  16% report both are equally responsible.

38% of Virginia registered voters say the government shutdown will have a major impact on their vote for governor while 21% think it will have a minor one.  39% say the shutdown is not an issue at all, and 2% are unsure.

By party, a plurality of Democrats — 44% — says the government shutdown will be a major issue in determining their gubernatorial vote while half of Republicans — 50% — report the shutdown is not an issue at all when it comes to casting their ballot.   But, Tea Party support again matters for Republicans.  A majority of Republicans who support the Tea Party — 55% — says the government shutdown is no issue at all when it comes to their vote.  This compares with a majority of Republicans who are not Tea Party supporters — 56% — who think the shutdown will be either a major or a minor issue when deciding for whom to vote.

Among independent voters, 40% think the shutdown is not an issue when it comes to picking their candidate.  This compares with 37% who say the shutdown is a major issue and 21% who believe it is a minor one.

How many Virginians have been affected by the federal government shutdown?  While 60% have not been impacted, a notable 39% say they or a member of their family have experienced changes to their employment status, services, or benefits.  One percent is unsure.  Identical proportions of registered voters in Virginia say the same.  60% have not been affected by the shutdown while 39% have felt the effects.  One percent of registered voters in Virginia is unsure.

Table: Who is More to Blame for the Government Shutdown (Virginia Adults)

Table: Whether the Government Shutdown is an Issue in Deciding Vote for Governor (Virginia Adults)

Table: Personal Impact of the Federal Government Shutdown (Virginia Adults) 

Damaged Brand?

The Republican Party is viewed negatively by many residents in Virginia.  61% of adults in the state have an unfavorable impression of the party.  32% have a favorable one, and 6% have either never heard of it or are unsure how to rate the Republican Party.  Among registered voters in the state, 62% have a negative view of the GOP while 32% have a positive one.  Five percent have either never heard of the GOP or are unsure how to rate it.

49% of Virginians view the Democratic Party unfavorably while 45% perceive it favorably.  Six percent have either never heard of the Democratic Party or are unsure how to rate it.  Looking at registered voters, 50% have a negative view of the Democratic Party while 45% have a positive one.  Five percent have either never heard of the party or are unsure how to rate it.

Table: Favorability of the Republican Party (Virginia Adults)

Table: Favorability of the Democratic Party (Virginia Adults)

Northam Edges Jackson in Contest for Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Ralph Northam receives the support of 48% of Virginia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  42% support Republican E.W. Jackson, and 1% mentions another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.

When NBC4/NBC News/Marist reported this question last month, likely voters in Virginia divided.  44% supported Northam while 41% backed Jackson.  One percent was for another candidate, and 13% were undecided.

How strongly are likely voters committed to their choice of candidate for lieutenant governor?  Half of likely voters with a candidate preference — 50% — strongly support their choice.  38% are somewhat committed to their pick, and 12% might vote differently.  Only 1% is unsure.

In September, 46% of likely voters with a candidate preference for lieutenant governor said they were firmly committed to their choice.  41% were somewhat behind their pick, and 11% said they might change their minds before Election Day.  Two percent, at that time, were unsure.

Northam also has a six percentage point advantage among registered voters in Virginia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  47% support Northam while 41% are behind Jackson.  One percent supports another candidate, and 10% are undecided.  Last month, Northam had the backing of 42% of registered voters while 40% were for Jackson.  One percent supported another candidate, and 16% were undecided.

Table: 2013 Lieutenant Governor Tossup (Virginia Likely Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Table: Intensity of Support for Virginia Lieutenant Governor (Virginia Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Lieutenant Governor Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

McDonnell Approval Rating Status Quo

A majority of adults in Virginia — 53% — approves of the job Governor Bob McDonnell is doing in office.  31% disapprove, and 16% are unsure.  Among registered voters in Virginia, 55% give McDonnell high marks.  32% say his performance has fallen short, and 13% are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since last month.  At that time, 51% of adults thought well of McDonnell’s job performance.  33% disapproved, and 16% were unsure.  A majority of registered voters in that previous survey — 55% — approved of McDonnell’s job performance.  33% disapproved, and 12% were unsure.

Looking at McDonnell’s favorability, 48% of adults statewide have a positive impression of McDonnell while 35% have an unfavorable one.  17% have either never heard of McDonnell or are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters, 49% view McDonnell favorably.  37% perceive him unfavorably, and 14% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In September, 49% of Virginia residents thought well of McDonnell while 32% did not.  19%, at that time, were unsure.   Among registered voters, 52% had a positive opinion of McDonnell while 33% had an unfavorable impression of the governor.  15%, then, had either never heard of McDonnell or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Favorability (Virginia Adults)

A State on Track?

While a majority of Virginians think the state is headed in the right direction, there has been a decline in the proportion of residents who have this opinion.  52% of adults statewide say the state is moving in the right direction while 42% think it is headed in the wrong one.  Six percent are unsure.  Registered voters reflect the views of residents overall.  53% of voters think Virginia is moving on the proper path while 41% say the state needs an alternate route.  Six percent are unsure.

In September’s poll, nearly six in ten adults — 58% — reported the state was on course.  This compares with 36% who said Virginia had fallen off the track.  Six percent, then, were unsure.  Among registered voters, 59% thought Virginia was on the correct path while 36% said it needed to be redirected.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Direction of Virginia (Virginia Adults)

Majority Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance

52% of adults in Virginia disapprove of how President Obama is doing his job while 45% approve.  Four percent are unsure.  Among registered voters statewide, 53% disapprove of Mr. Obama’s job performance while 45% approve.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 48% of adults in Virginia gave the president high marks while 46% said his performance was not satisfactory.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.  Looking at registered voters, 48% in September praised the president’s job performance while 47% thought it was lacking.  Five percent were unsure.

Is President Obama viewed favorably in Virginia?  He receives mixed reviews.  49% of residents have a positive opinion of the president while 48% have an unfavorable view of him.  Three percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  The opinions of Virginia registered voters mirror those of residents, overall.  49% have a favorable view of President Obama while 49% have an unfavorable one.  Two percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate the president.

When NBC4/NBC News/Marist last reported this question, 52% of Virginians thought well of Mr. Obama while 45% had a negative impression of him.  Four percent had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.  At that time, 52% of registered voters perceived the president positively.  45% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 3% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Obama Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Obama Favorability (Virginia Adults)

From Politics to Football…More than Seven in Ten Want Redskins to Keep Name 

There has been much debate about whether or not the Washington Redskins should change their name.  While more than one in five adults in Virginia — 21% — think the team should find a different name because “Redskins” is offensive to Native Americans, 73% believe the name should remain because it is a part of the team’s tradition.  Six percent are unsure.  Fans of the team agree.  One in five — 20% — says the name should be changed while 78% want it to remain.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Whether or Not the Name of the Washington Redskins Should be Changed (Virginia Adults)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

10/11: De Blasio Leads Lhota by 44 Percentage Points in NYC Mayor’s Race

With just a little more than three weeks until Election Day, Democrat Bill de Blasio outpaces his Republican opponent, Joe Lhota, 67% to 23%, among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has the support of 2%.  One percent supports another candidate while 7% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“This is a very lopsided contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Joe Lhota hasn’t gotten any traction to offset the Democratic registration advantage in the city.”

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, de Blasio — 65% — was ahead of Lhota — 22% — by 43 percentage points among likely voters.  Carrion received the support of 3%.  One percent backed another candidate, and 9%, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

• Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 82% support de Blasio while 13% are for Lhota.  One percent supports Carrion.  Last month, 77% of Democrats backed de Blasio.  13% were behind Lhota, and 1% supported Carrion.
• Looking at likely Republican voters, 69% back Lhota.  16% are for de Blasio, and 1% supports Carrion.  In September’s survey, 63% of Republicans were for Lhota compared with 25% for de Blasio.  Five percent were behind Carrion.
• Among non-enrolled voters, de Blasio has the backing of 58%.  Lhota garners 21%, and Carrion has 7%.  In that previous survey, half of non-enrolled voters likely to cast a ballot — 50% — supported de Blasio compared with 24% for Lhota and 9% for Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio has a wide lead over Lhota.  Among white voters who are likely to participate on Election Day, 57% support de Blasio while 33% are for Lhota.  In September, 50% of whites backed de Blasio while Lhota had the support of 37%.  Among African American voters, de Blasio has 89% to 4% for Lhota.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 86% of African American voters likely to cast a ballot supported de Blasio compared with 3% for Lhota.  De Blasio has a 62 percentage point advantage over Lhota among Latinos who are likely to vote.  Here, de Blasio receives 76% compared with 14% for Lhota.  Last month, 74% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day were for de Blasio while 11% backed Lhota.

How strongly do likely voters with a candidate preference support their choice for mayor?  54% strongly support their pick while 36% are somewhat behind their candidate.  Nine percent might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  33% were somewhat behind their pick while 13% said they might change their minds before Election Day.  One percent, at that time, was unsure.

Among likely voters who are for de Blasio, 56% strongly support him.  This compares with 49% of Lhota’s backers who are firmly committed to him.  This is little changed from September when 58% of de Blasio’s backers said they strongly supported him while 47% of Lhota’s supporters expressed the same level of support for him.

Looking at registered voters, de Blasio — 66% — outdistances Lhota — 20% — by 46 percentage points.  Carrion has the support of 3% while 2% back another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.  Last month, 63% of registered voters backed de Blasio while 20% supported Lhota.  Four percent were for Carrion, and 2% backed another candidate.  12% were undecided.

What does the contest for mayor look like when all fifteen candidates on the ballot are taken into account?  Little changes.  Among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 64% support de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  Jack Hidary and Michael Greys each receives 1%.  Erick Salgado, Anthony Gronowicz, James McMillian, Michael Sanchez, Randy Credico, Dan Fein, Joseph Melaragno, Sam Sloan, Michael Dilger, and Carl Person each garners less than one percent of the vote.  One percent mentions another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor Including All Fifteen Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

65% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio while 23% have an unfavorable one.  12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In September, 65% thought highly of de Blasio while 19% had an unfavorable view of him.  16%, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

It’s a different story when it comes to Lhota.  43% have an unfavorable impression of the candidate.  32% have a positive view of him, and a notable 25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  There has been little change on this question since September when 41% had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota, and 29% said they had a favorable one.  Three in ten — 30% — had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Tops Lhota on Issues and Qualities

How do de Blasio and Lhota stack up when it comes to campaign issues and candidate qualities?  Among registered voters in New York City:

• Two out of three — 67% — think de Blasio is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure.  In September, 63% had this impression of de Blasio while 20% said Lhota could make New York City more affordable.  17% were unsure.
• When it comes to improving the city’s public schools, about two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — say de Blasio is the better candidate for the job.  This compares with 19% who think Lhota is better able to improve education in the city.  16% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question.  Last month, 65% reported de Blasio was the candidate with the skills to improve education while 18% had this view of Lhota.  18%, at that time, were unsure.
• 63% of registered voters think de Blasio can better unite the city.  This compares with 21% who think Lhota can bring New Yorkers together.  16% are unsure.  In that previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 67% of voters considered de Blasio to be the candidate who could better unite the city.  19% thought Lhota was the candidate to do so, and 14% were unsure.
• There has also been little change on whether de Blasio or Lhota has the experience to manage the city.  53% believe de Blasio is the more seasoned candidate while 29% think Lhota has the experience to take the city’s helm.  18% are unsure.  Last month, a majority — 54% — reported de Blasio had the experience to be mayor compared with 31% who had this impression of Lhota.  15%, then, were unsure.
• A majority of voters — 52% — say de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 31% say Lhota is more likely to do so.  17% are unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who say de Blasio will improve safety in the city.  Last month, 44% said de Blasio was more likely to reduce crime.  This compares with 35% who had this opinion of Lhota.  21%, at the time, were unsure.
• When it comes to the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances, 49% think de Blasio is more capable.  This compares with 33% who say Lhota has the advantage on this issue.  19% are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 45% thought de Blasio was the better candidate to deal with the city’s finances while 35% had this opinion of Lhota.  20% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

The Ideologies of the Candidates 

Among registered voters in New York City, 59% report de Blasio’s political ideology is in step.  This compares with 24% who think he is too liberal and 3% who believe he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.

In September, 59% of registered voters said de Blasio’s ideology was about right.  22% reported he was too liberal while 5% thought he was too conservative.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Among registered voters, 35% say Lhota’s political ideology is in line.  31% report he is too conservative, and 8% believe he is too liberal.  26% are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 32% of voters thought Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while 7% reported he was too liberal.  29%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio’s Past Experiences in Cuba and Nicaragua Matter Little

Information surfaced that de Blasio went to Cuba on his honeymoon and supported the Sandinistas in Nicaragua.  Has this knowledge impacted voters’ impressions of de Blasio?  More than seven in ten registered voters — 72% — say it makes no difference to them.  16% report it makes them less likely to vote for de Blasio while 8% think it makes them more likely to vote for him.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of de Blasio’s Time in Cuba and Nicaragua on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Divide about Lhota and National GOP

On most issues, 40% of registered voters think Lhota is not independent from the national Republican Party.  36% believe he is independent from the GOP, and 24% are unsure where he stands on most issues.

Among those who believe Lhota’s stance on the issues is tied to the national Republican Party, 39% are less likely to support him, and 54% say it doesn’t matter.  Looking at those who say Lhota is independent from the national GOP platform, 42% would be more likely to vote for him, and 51% say it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Impact of Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing Does Little to Help Lhota’s Chances

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani stumped for Lhota during the primary, but his nod does not bolster Lhota’s chances in the general election.  While 31% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to support Lhota, 47% report it makes them less likely to do so.  18% think it makes no difference to their vote, and 3% are unsure.

Last month, 29% reported Giuliani’s support made them more likely to vote for Lhota.  A majority — 51% — said it made them less likely to vote for him, and 15% thought Giuliani’s endorsement made no difference to their vote.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

A partisan divide exists.  Most Republicans — 72% — say a Giuliani endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota while 8% report it makes them less inclined to support him.  Among Democrats, 57% think Giuliani’s backing makes them less likely to cast their ballot for Lhota.  22% disagree and believe it will make them more likely to do so.  There is little consensus among non-enrolled voters citywide.  35% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota, and 42% report it makes them less likely to vote for him.  20% believe it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Departure from Bloomberg Era Policies Desired… Bloomberg Rating Steady 

About two-thirds of registered voters in New York City — 66% — want to move the city in a different direction from the Bloomberg years.  29%, however, want the next mayor to continue the policies of Mayor Bloomberg.  Six percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 68% wanted the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 25% wanted him to stay the course.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

When it comes to the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office, 45% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who say the mayor is doing an excellent job and 33% who report he is doing a good one.  34% rate his performance as fair while 18% think he is performing poorly.  Two percent are unsure.

Last month, a similar 42% gave Bloomberg kudos.  33% gave him average grades while 22% thought he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)  

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track?

When it comes to the direction of New York City, 46% of registered voters believe it is moving in the right direction, and 46% think it is traveling in the wrong one.  Eight percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, voters also divided.  46% reported the city was on the right road, and 43% said it was on the wrong track.  11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

10/2: Economic Issues Top Priorities for Next Westchester County Executive… Taxes Number One

Economic concerns are top of mind for many Westchester County residents.  Three in ten adults in the county — 30% — think taxes should be the top priority for the next Westchester County Executive.  Jobs follows with 21%, and while education is third with 19%, 12% of adults in the county say economic development needs to be addressed.  Seven percent of adults rank housing as the key issue in the county.   Other issues important to Westchester County adults include poverty — 4%, crime — 3%, and transportation — 3%.  Less than one percent cite race relations as the top priority for the next Westchester County Executive.  Less than 1% thinks another issue should be the top priority of the next Westchester County Executive.

Click Here for October 2, 2013 Westchester County Marist Poll Release and Tables

This poll has been conducted in partnership with the Business Council of Westchester County.

“During this evening’s county executive debate, it’s important for the voice of the public to be part of this discussion,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “This survey identifies issues Westchester residents see as top priorities for the county.”

Table: Top Priority for the Next Westchester County Executive (Westchester County Adults)

Are Local Taxes and Fees Fair?

Given the services in their local community, Westchester County residents divide about whether or not the amount they pay in local taxes and fees is fair.  Half — 50% — say the sum they pay is not fair while 48% report it is.  Two percent are unsure.  Among registered voters in the county, a majority — 53% — believes their local taxes and fees are unfair while 46% say the amount they pay is on target.  One percent is unsure.

Homeowners are particularly displeased about the amount they pay in school and property taxes.  Six in ten Westchester County homeowners — 60% — say, based on their local services, the amount they pay is not fair.  38% disagree and report the cost is fair.  Two percent are unsure.  Similar proportions of Westchester County registered voters who own their home share these views.  60% think the amount is fair.  39% believe it is unfair, and 1% is unsure.

Table: Fairness of Local Taxes and Fees (Westchester County Adults)

Table: Fairness of School and Property Taxes (Westchester County Homeowners)

Jobs Picture Concerns Most Westchester County Residents

When it comes to the jobs situation in the county, the second highest priority, nearly three in four residents — 74% — say, if they lost their job, it would be tough to find a similar position the same distance from their home.  This includes 37% who think it would be very difficult and 37% who believe it would be difficult to acquire the same type of employment.  However, 22% report it would not be very difficult to find a similar job while 5% say it would not be difficult at all.

Table: Finding a Similar Job with the Same Commute (Westchester County Adults)

Westchester County Economy on the Mend 

More than six in ten adults in Westchester County — 63% — think the county’s economy is on a steady course.  21% believe it has gotten better, and 16% say it has gotten worse.  There has been a sharp decline in the proportion of residents who think Westchester’s economy has gotten worse and an increase in those who think it has improved since a similar survey conducted four years ago.  When The Marist Poll and Business Council of Westchester last reported this question in 2009, 55% said the economy was status quo, 12% said it had gotten better, and 33% thought it had gotten worse.

Among registered voters, 62% say the economy in the county has levelled off.  21% report it has gotten better while 17% think it has gotten worse.  In 2009, 54% of registered voters countywide thought the local economy had stayed about the same, 14% said it had gotten better, and 32% reported it had gotten worse.

Residents are also more positive about the state of their personal family finances.  Nearly six in ten — 58% — say their family’s financial picture will stay about the same in the coming year.  32% think their personal money matters will get better while 10% believe they will get worse.  In 2009, 50% said their family’s finances would stay about the same.  27% reported their money matters would get better, and 23% thought they would get worse.

Looking at registered voters, 58% think their family finances will not change in the coming year.  This compares with 31% who say they will get better and 11% who report they will get worse.  In 2009, 50% thought their financial picture would be status quo, 25% said it would get better while 25% believed it would get worse.

Table: Westchester County Economy (Westchester County Adults)

Table: Personal Family Finances (Westchester County Adults)

Almost Two-Thirds Think County is On Track 

64% of county residents think Westchester is in moving in the right direction.  24% believe it is going in the wrong direction, and 12% are unsure.  Among registered voters, 63% say Westchester County is on course while 26% report it has fallen off the track.  11% are unsure.

Table: Direction of Westchester County (Westchester County Adults) 

Most Adults Give Neighborhood High Marks

91% of Westchester County residents rate their neighborhood highly.  This includes a slim majority — 51% — who says their neighborhood is an excellent place to live and 40% who report it is a good place to live.  Six percent call their neighborhood fair while 3% think poorly of their neighborhood.  There are racial differences.  Most white residents — 96% — consider their neighborhood to either an excellent or good place to live.  This compares with 88% of Latinos and 68% of African American residents who say the same.

Overall, nearly all Westchester County residents — 96% — are satisfied with the county as a place to live.  Included here are 41% who are very satisfied and 55% who are satisfied.  A mere 3% are not very satisfied with the county, and 2% are not satisfied at all.

Table: Rating Given to Neighborhood (Westchester County Adults)

Table: Level of Satisfaction with Westchester County (Westchester County Adults)

Nearly Seven in Ten Residents View County as Unaffordable 

But, is Westchester County affordable for the average family?  69% of adults do not think it is.  This includes 57% who say it is not very affordable and 12% who report it is not affordable at all.  Just 32% believe the county is affordable.  Included here are just 2% who think it is very affordable and 30% who believe it is affordable.

Table: Affordability of Westchester County for the Average Family (Westchester County Adults)

Moving Out? 

How many residents plan to move out of the county in the next five years?  While seven in ten — 70% — say they plan to stay, almost one in four — 24% — expects to move someplace else.  Six percent are unsure.

Among those who plan to move out of the county in the next five years, 48% cite economic reasons for their relocation.  43% of those who want to leave the county mention non-economic factors for their interest in moving.  Among all Westchester County residents, regardless of whether or not they are planning to leave the county, 50% of residents say non-economic reasons would be the catalyst for them to relocate.  These reasons include the desire to be closer to their family and friends — 19%, a different climate — 18%, better schools — 7%, crime and safety — 4%, and the proximity of shopping and entertainment — 2%.  However, 43% would move away because of economic reasons such as the lack of affordability — 32%, to be closer to jobs — 6%, and taxes — 4%.  Eight percent of adults cite another reason they would relocate.

Table: Plan to Move Out of Westchester County? (Westchester County Adults)

Table: Reason to Move Out of Westchester County (Westchester County Adults)

In Case of Emergency… Plurality Approves of County’s Disaster Preparedness

If Westchester County were to face a disaster such as a terror attack, hurricane, or earthquake, 44% of residents think the county has an adequate response plan.  37%, however, say the county does not have an adequate plan for potential disasters.  Nearly one in five residents — 19% — don’t know enough about it to have an opinion on the county’s disaster preparedness.

Table: Adequacy of Emergency Response Plan (Westchester County Adults)

Nature of the Sample

How the Survey was Conducted

 

 

9/30: Tea Party Support at New Low

As political rancor in Washington heightens speculation about a government shutdown tonight, there has been an erosion in the proportion of Americans who identify with the most conservative members of the national electorate.

23% of U.S. registered voters now consider themselves to be supporters of the Tea Party.  This is a double-digit decline from September 2010 when slightly more than one-third of registered voters nationally — 34% — described themselves in this way.  While the proportion of voters who back the Tea Party hovered in the middle to upper 20’s for much of the past three years, this is the first time since Marist began tracking this question that support has dipped below 25%.

Table: Tea Party Support over Time

 

 

 

 

9/24: McAuliffe Edges Cuccinelli in Contest for Virginia Governor

Democrat Terry McAuliffe narrowly leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the hotly contested race for Virginia governor.  Among likely voters in Virginia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, McAuliffe receives 43% to 38% for Cuccinelli.  Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis garners 8% of the vote.  One percent supports another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in May, Cuccinelli — 45% — and McAuliffe — 42% — were in a virtual dead heat among likely voters including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Less than 1% supported another candidate, and 13% were undecided.

Click Here for Complete September 24th, 2013 Virginia NBC4/NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC4/NBC News/Marist Poll

“None of the candidates has reached a comfort level with voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Look no further than how voters compare the candidates on key issues.  With the exception of social issues, no one breaks 40% on any area of concern to voters.”

Key points:

• Party ID.  89% of likely voters who are Democrats support McAuliffe while 83% of Republicans are for Cuccinelli.  Among independent voters in Virginia, the candidates are in a close contest.  36% back McAuliffe while 34% are for Cuccinelli.  Sarvis receives 15% of independents, 5% of Republicans, and 2% of Democrats.
• Gender.  There is a gender gap.  Half of women who are likely to vote — 50% — support McAuliffe while 32% are behind Cuccinelli.  However, Cuccinelli leads among men with 44% compared with 36% for McAuliffe.
• Intensity of Support.  A majority of likely voters with a candidate preference — 59% — says they strongly support their choice of candidate for governor.  31% are somewhat behind their selection while 9% might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.  59% of those who are behind McAuliffe are strongly committed to their choice of candidate for governor.  This compares with 60% of Cuccinelli’s supporters who have the same level of support for him.

Among registered voters in Virginia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 41% support McAuliffe, 35% are for Cuccinelli, and 8% back Sarvis.  One percent wants another candidate to be elected, and 14% are undecided.  In that previous survey, registered voters divided.  43% backed McAuliffe, 41% were for Cuccinelli, 1% supported another candidate, and 16% were undecided.

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (Virginia Likely Voters including Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (Virginia Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners)

Cuccinelli’s Favorable Rating Slides… McAuliffe Still Unknown to Three in Ten

Cuccinelli’s favorable rating is now upside down.  45% of Virginia residents have an unfavorable view of him while 31% have a favorable impression of the candidate.  23% have either never heard of Cuccinelli or are unsure how to rate him.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  47% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Cuccinelli while 34% have a favorable one.  19% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In NBC News/Marist’s May survey, Cuccinelli’s rating was right side up.  Four in ten Virginia adults — 40% — had a positive view of Cuccinelli.  26% had an unfavorable one, and 34% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters, 42%, at that time, thought highly of Cuccinelli, 27% had a lesser opinion of him, and 32% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to McAuliffe, 38% of Virginia residents have a favorable impression of him.  32% have an unfavorable one, and a notable 30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters statewide, 41% think well of McAuliffe, 34% have a negative view of him, and 26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In the spring, McAuliffe was even less-known to Virginia residents.  While 31% had a positive opinion of the candidate and 23% had an unfavorable impression of him, a plurality — 46% — had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters, 32%, at that time, viewed McAuliffe favorably.  24% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 44% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

How does Sarvis fare in the realm of public opinion?  The candidate is not well-known to most Virginians.  66% of adults statewide have either never heard of Sarvis or are unsure how to rate him.  20% have a favorable view of him, and 15% have an unfavorable impression of him.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  63% of voters have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Sarvis.  21% have a positive opinion of him, and 16% have a negative view of him.

Table: Cuccinelli Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: McAuliffe Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Sarvis Favorability (Virginia Adults)

The Impact of Controversy

The McAuliffe and Cuccinelli campaigns have had to address controversies surrounding their candidates.  How have these controversies affected Virginians’ opinions of the candidates?

When it comes to McAuliffe’s past work at the automotive company Green Tech, about six in ten residents — 61% — do not know enough about the situation to form an opinion.  16% say McAuliffe’s association with the company has fostered a more negative opinion of the candidate while 2% say it makes them feel more positively toward him.  About one in five — 21% — report it has not impacted their view of McAuliffe.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

Looking at Cuccinelli’s association with Star Scientific and its CEO, Jonnie Williams, a plurality — 47% — says they don’t know enough about the connection to form an opinion.  Nearly three in ten — 28% — report they have a more negative attitude toward the candidate while just 2% say it has positively affected their opinion of him.  About one in four residents — 24% — says it has not had much of an impact on their view of Cuccinelli.  Again, similar proportions of registered voters have these opinions.

Table: Impact of Terry McAuliffe’s Association with Green Tech (Virginia Adults)

Table: Impact of Ken Cuccinelli’s Association with Star Scientific (Virginia Adults)

Ideologically Speaking

When it comes to McAuliffe’s political views, about four in ten adults in Virginia — 39% — believe his ideology is about right.  29% think he is too liberal, and only 7% say he is too conservative.  A notable 25% are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist reported this question last spring, 32% of residents reported his ideology was about right.  27% said he was too liberal while 5% thought he was too conservative.  36%, at that time, were unsure.

A plurality of adults statewide — 37% — thinks Cuccinelli is too conservative.  32% report his ideology is about right, and only 9% say he is too liberal.  About one in five — 21% — is unsure about Cuccinelli’s political views.

In May, 38% considered Cuccinelli’s political views to be about right.  This compares with 25% who said he was too conservative, 6% who thought he was too liberal, and 31% who were unsure.

Table: McAuliffe Ideology (Virginia Adults)

Table: Cuccinelli Ideology (Virginia Adults)

Issues and Image: McAuliffe Bests Cuccinelli on Most… Candidates Closer on Trust, Business, and Experience

When it comes to issues and candidate qualities, how do Virginians view the gubernatorial candidates?

• A plurality of residents — 44% — says McAuliffe comes closer to their views on social issues such as abortion.  This compares with 26% who report Cuccinelli better reflects their views.  Five percent think neither of the candidates identifies with their personal views on social issues, and less than 1% of residents believe both candidates share their opinion.  24% are unsure.   In May, there was little consensus.  31% thought Cuccinelli aligned with their personal position on social issues while 30% had this view of McAuliffe.  One percent said both reflected their views while 4% reported neither identified with their views on social issues.  34%, at that time, were unsure.
• Nearly four in ten adults — 38% — think McAuliffe cares more about the middle class while 29% have this view of Cuccinelli.  One percent believes both candidates have the best interests of the middle class in mind while 10% think neither cares about the middle class.  22% are unsure.  In that previous survey, residents divided.  30% thought Cuccinelli cared more about the middle class while 29% had this impression of McAuliffe.  One percent reported both candidates were concerned about middle class residents while 6% said neither candidate was concerned.  34% were unsure.
• 39% of residents in Virginia think McAuliffe shares their values while 31% believe Cuccinelli does.  One percent says both candidates reflect their core principles while 10% report neither does.  19% are unsure.  When NBC News/Marist last reported this question, 34% said Cuccinelli shared their values.  This compares with 28% who had this impression of McAuliffe at that time.  One percent reported both candidates represented their ideals while 6% said neither did.  31%, then, were unsure.
• Which candidate better understands residents’ problems?  39% think McAuliffe is the candidate who can better relate to the problems facing Virginians.  This compares with 33% who have this view of Cuccinelli.  Less than 1% of residents say both candidates can identify with the average person in Virginia while 10% report neither can relate to their problems.  18% are unsure.  In May, there was no consensus.  About one-third — 33% — said Cuccinelli better understood residents’ problems.  29% thought McAuliffe could better relate to the issues confronting residents of Virginia.  Less than 1% said both candidates understood residents’ challenges while 7% reported neither could empathize with them.  31% were unsure.
• Which candidate for governor do residents trust more to do what’s best for Virginia?  39% choose McAuliffe, and 34% have confidence in Cuccinelli.  Less than 1% of Virginians believe both candidates will improve the state while 10% trust neither.  16% are unsure.  In May, Cuccinelli — 37% — edged McAuliffe — 31% — on this question.  Less than 1% trusted both candidates while 5% had confidence in neither candidate.  26% were unsure.
• However, when it comes to the candidate who would be better for business in Virginia, 37% think Cuccinelli is the man for the job while 35% have this opinion of McAuliffe.  Less than 1% of residents say both candidates can help bolster business in Virginia while 6% think neither candidate can handle the issue.  22% are unsure.
• When it comes to the candidate who has the experience to be governor, 38% think Cuccinelli has the necessary experience while 34% say the same about McAuliffe.  Two percent think both candidates have the know-how to be governor while 7% say neither is prepared to assume the role.  20% are unsure.

Table: Candidate that is Closer on Social Issues (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate that Cares More About the Middle Class (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate that Shares Values (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate that Better Understands Problems (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate Trusted More to do What’s Best for Virginia (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate that is Better for Business (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate that Has the Experience to be Governor (Virginia Adults)

Majority Supports Same-Sex Marriage

Where do Virginians stand on the issue of same-sex marriage?  55% of adults statewide favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to enter into same-sex marriage.  This includes 36% who strongly support gay marriage.  37% oppose same-sex marriage which includes 10% who strongly oppose it.  Eight percent are unsure.

Table: Favor or Oppose Same-Sex Marriage (Virginia Adults)

Northam and Jackson Neck and Neck in Lieutenant Governor’s Contest

In the race for Virginia’s lieutenant governor, Democrat Ralph Northam receives the support of 44% of likely Virginia voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Republican E.W. Jackson has the support of 41% while 1% backs another candidate.  13% are undecided.

How strongly do likely voters with a candidate preference support their choice of candidate for lieutenant governor?  46% are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  41% say they somewhat support their selection while 11% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.  Among likely voters who back Northam, 47% strongly support him.  This compares with 44% of Jackson’s backers who are firmly committed to him.

Among registered voters statewide, 42% are for Northam while 40% are for Jackson.  One percent supports another candidate, and 16% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Lieutenant Governor Tossup (Virginia Likely Voters including Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Virginia Lieutenant Governor (Virginia Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Lieutenant Governor Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners)

More than One in Four Voters Undecided in Attorney General’s Race

Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Democrat Mark Herring has the support of 39% in the contest for attorney general.  This compares with 34% for Republican Mark Obenshain.  One percent backs another candidate seeking the office, and 26% are undecided.

42% of likely voters with a candidate preference for attorney general strongly support their choice.  40% are somewhat committed to their candidate selection while 16% might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.  Among those who back Herring, 43% are firmly behind him.  A similar proportion of Obenshain backers — 42% — has this level of support for their candidate for attorney general.

Among registered voters in Virginia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 38% support Herring.  32% back Obenshain, and 2% are for another candidate.  A notable 28% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Virginia Attorney General Tossup (Virginia Likely Voters including Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Virginia Attorney General (Virginia Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Virginia Attorney General Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners)

McDonnell’s Approval Rating Declines, Yet He Remains Popular

51% of Virginians approve of the job Governor Bob McDonnell is doing in office.  33% disapprove, and 16% are unsure.  55% of registered voters statewide think highly of McDonnell’s job performance while 33% disapprove.  12% are unsure.

There has been a drop in the proportions of Virginia residents and registered voters who approve of how McDonnell is performing his job.  When NBC News/Marist reported this question in May, 60% of residents had a positive view of how McDonnell was doing in office while 22% disapproved.  At that time, 18% were unsure.  Among registered voters, 61% approved of how the governor was doing in his role while 24% disapproved.  15% were unsure.

McDonnell’s favorability rating has also suffered.  49% of adults in Virginia have a favorable view of McDonnell.  32% have an unfavorable one, and 19% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  52% of registered voters think well of McDonnell.  33% have a lesser view of him, and 15% are unsure.

In May, 58% had a favorable opinion of Governor McDonnell.  23% had a negative impression of him, and 19% were unsure.  Among registered voters in Virginia, 60% had a positive opinion of McDonnell.  24% had an unfavorable one, and 16% were unsure.

McDonnell is limited to one term in office, but if he could run for a second term, 47% of registered voters would support his re-election bid while 42% would back McAuliffe.  Two percent would cast their ballot for another candidate, and 9% are undecided.  In that previous survey, a majority of registered voters — 51% — said they would back McDonnell in a race for governor.  This compares with 36% who reported they would support McAuliffe.  One percent was for another candidate, and 12% were undecided.

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Hypothetical 2013 Tossup McAuliffe/McDonnell (Virginia Registered Voters)

Nearly Six in Ten Think State is Moving in the Right Direction

58% of Virginians think the state is on the right course.  36% believe it is on the wrong one, and 6% are unsure.  Among registered voters statewide, 59% say Virginia is traveling along the proper path while 36% say it needs a new direction.  Five percent are unsure.

In May, 60% of adults thought the state’s trajectory was correct.  This compares with 33% who said Virginia needed a new path.  Seven percent were unsure.  Among registered voters, 61% said Virginia was moving in the right direction, 32% believed it was traveling in the wrong direction, and 7% were unsure.

Table: Direction of Virginia (Virginia Adults)

Virginia Residents Divide over Obama’s Job Performance

Nearly half of Virginia residents — 48% — approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  46% disapprove, and 6% are unsure.  Similarly, 48% of registered voters have a positive view of the president’s job performance.  47% of voters disapprove, and 5% are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s May survey, a slim majority of adults — 51% — gave the president high marks.  45% believed he fell short, and 4% were unsure.

When it comes to President Obama’s favorability rating, a majority of adults — 52% — has a positive impression of the president.  45% have an unfavorable opinion of Obama, and 4% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

There has been little change on this question since May when 53% of adults statewide had a favorable view of President Obama.  43% had an unfavorable one, and 3% were unsure.

Table: Obama Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Obama Favorability (Virginia Adults)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

9/18: Early Line: de Blasio Outpaces Lhota in NYC Mayor’s Race

The race for New York City mayor now turns toward the general election.  Among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Democrat Bill de Blasio leads Republican Joe Lhota, 65% to 22%.  Independence candidate Adolfo Carrion — 3% — trails in third place.  One percent supports another candidate, and 9% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete September 18, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“Joe Lhota must attract many Democrats to be competitive against the heavily favored Bill de Blasio, and right now, that’s not happening,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “De Blasio is very well-liked and is cornering the market on most of the issues and qualities that matter to voters.”

Candidate support divides along party lines.  However, de Blasio receives the backing of one in four likely Republican voters — 25% — while Lhota attracts merely 13% of Democrats.

By party:

• 77% of likely Democratic voters citywide are for de Blasio.  This compares with 13% for Lhota, and 1% for Carrion.
• Among Republicans who are likely to vote, more than six in ten — 63% — are behind Lhota.  A notable 25% support de Blasio, and 5% are for Carrion.
• Half of non-enrolled voters who are likely to vote — 50% — support de Blasio.  24% back Lhota, and 9% are for Carrion.

There are also racial differences.  86% of African American voters who are likely to vote and 74% of likely Latino voters support de Blasio.  Lhota receives the support of 3% of African American voters and 11% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day.  The contest is closer among white voters who are likely to cast a ballot.  Here, de Blasio has the support of 50% to 37% for Lhota.

54% of likely New York City voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  33% are somewhat committed to their pick, and only 13% might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.

Looking at the candidates’ support, 58% of likely voters who are behind de Blasio strongly support him.  This compares with 47% of Lhota’s backers who express the same level of support.

Among registered voters in New York City, de Blasio — 63% — leads Lhota — 20%.  Four percent of registered voters citywide are for Carrion while 2% want to elect another candidate.  12% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners)

Many Voters View de Blasio Favorably… Lhota’s Rating Upside Down 

Nearly two in three registered voters citywide — 65% — have a positive impression of de Blasio.  19% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 16% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  It’s a different story for candidate Lhota.  41% have an unfavorable view of Lhota while 29% have a favorable impression of him.  A notable 30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Carrion, he is not well known to voters.  While 23% have an unfavorable opinion of him and 19% have a favorable view of Carrion, almost six in ten New York City registered voters — 58% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Adolfo Carrion Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

The Nitty-Gritty of Campaign Issues and Candidate Qualities 

How do voters compare de Blasio and Lhota on the issues?  In most areas, de Blasio outdistances Lhota by wide margins.  However, there are two notable exceptions.  De Blasio and Lhota are more competitive when it comes to who is better able to handle the city’s finances or who is more likely to keep crime down.

Among New York City registered voters:

• 67% of registered voters think de Blasio is the candidate who will better unify the city.  19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure.
• De Blasio — 65% — is also viewed as the candidate who is more likely to improve the city’s public schools.  18%, however, think Lhota is the candidate who has the tools to enhance the city’s schools, and 18% are unsure.
• When it comes to making the city more affordable, more than six in ten — 63% — believe de Blasio is more capable of doing so.  This compares with 20% who have this opinion of Lhota.  17% are unsure.
• 62% of voters say de Blasio better understands their problems.  22% report Lhota is the candidate who is more likely to identify with their concerns, and 16% are unsure.
• Which candidate will better lead the city during a crisis?  A majority — 56% — thinks de Blasio will better lead during such a time.  30% believe Lhota is the man to turn to during a crisis, and 14% are unsure.
• When it comes to keeping businesses in the Big Apple, 55% say de Blasio will do more to keep them in New York City.  More than three in ten — 31% — report Lhota is the candidate who will make the greater effort to ensure businesses remain in the city.  14% are unsure.
• A majority of registered voters in New York City — 54% — view de Blasio as the mayoral candidate who has the experience to manage the city.  31% have this impression of Lhota, and 15% are unsure.
• However, de Blasio — 45% — and Lhota — 35% — are more closely matched when voters choose the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances.  20% are unsure.
• Similarly, when it comes to keeping crime down, 44% of voters think de Blasio will do a better job while 35% have this impression of Lhota.  About one in five voters — 21% — is unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who Better Understands the Problems of People Like Themselves (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Lead the City in a Crisis (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will do More to Keep Businesses in the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Many Voters View de Blasio’s Ideology as In Step… Little Consensus about Lhota 

59% of registered voters in New York City think de Blasio’s ideology is about right.  22% believe he is too liberal, and only 5% say he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.  When it comes to voters’ perceptions of Lhota, 32% report his ideology is about right.  31% think he is too conservative while 7% believe he is too liberal.  Nearly three in ten — 29% — are unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani Endorsement Not the Answer to Lhota’s Electoral Success

The endorsement of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani could do more harm than good for Lhota.  While 29% of registered voters citywide say Giuliani’s backing makes them more likely to support Lhota, a majority — 51% — says it makes them less likely to vote for him.  15% of voters report Giuliani’s endorsement makes no difference to their vote, and 5% are unsure.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide.  Nearly six in ten New York City Democrats — 59% — think Giuliani’s endorsement of Lhota makes them less likely to support him, and only 22% say it makes them more likely to back him.  Many Republican voters — 61% — view the Giuliani endorsement as a plus while 19% disagree.  46% of non-enrolled voters report Giuliani’s endorsement of Lhota makes them less likely to cast their ballot for him compared with 32% of these voters who see it as a positive.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Change is in the Air

68% of registered voters want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while just 25% want him to continue Mayor Bloomberg’s policies.  Seven percent are unsure.  Among registered voters who want to see the city move in another direction, 70% support de Blasio, and 14% back Lhota.  Among registered voters who want to continue the Bloomberg policies, 45% support de Blasio, and 34% back Lhota.

Stop and frisk is a Bloomberg-era policy many voters want to amend.  58% of registered voters citywide want the next mayor to significantly change the Bloomberg policy of stop and frisk.  36%, however, want the controversial policy to continue.  Seven percent are unsure.

Racial differences exist.  75% of African American voters and 63% of Latino voters want the policy of stop and frisk to be overhauled.  This compares with just 44% of white voters who share this view.

More than two-thirds of registered voters — 68% — agree with the centerpiece of the de Blasio campaign that the Big Apple is comprised of two cities.  One is made up of people who are struggling, and the other is comprised of those who are doing well.  However, 29% of registered voters disagree with this view and believe the city is one where people come together to solve their common problems.  Three percent are unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Should Significant Changes be Made to Stop and Frisk? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Does a Division Exist in New York City between Those Who are Struggling and Those Who are Doing Well? (NYC Registered Voters) 

Education and Economic Issues Viewed as Top Priorities for Next Mayor

Education and the economy are top of mind for New York City voters.  While 27% of voters in New York want the next mayor’s priority to be education, a plurality of voters — 39% — want the economy to be the new mayor’s focus.  This includes 22% who want jobs to be the number one issue and 17% who would like economic development to be the priority.  Rounding out the top five issues are housing with 8% and crime with 7%.  Other concerns include poverty — 6%, taxes — 5%, security from terrorism — 5%, race relations — 2%, and transportation — 1%.  One percent mentions something else as the next mayor’s top priority.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in June, 23% wanted the next mayor to focus on jobs.  20% thought education should be at the fore of the new mayor’s mind.  12% reported economic development should be the key while housing — 8% — and security from terrorism — 7% — also ranked high on the list of priorities.  Voters, at that time, were also concerned about taxes — 6%, crime — 6%, poverty — 5%, transportation — 2%, and race relations — 2%.  Eight percent wanted another issue to be the next mayor’s priority.

Table: Priority for the Next Mayor (NYC Registered Voters)

The Pre-K Conundrum… Voters Divide along Party Lines

With education at the top of the list of priorities for the next mayor, a majority of voters — 53% — wants to see taxes raised on higher income households to fund greater access to pre-kindergarten in the city.  40% believe the city should find the money within its budget to pay for it.  Two percent do not think pre-kindergarten is a priority, and 5% are unsure.  Opinions fall along party lines.  While 58% of Democrats and 51% of non-enrolled voters support increasing taxes to pay for more children to attend pre-kindergarten, 58% of Republicans believe the money should come from the city’s budget.

Table: Funding Pre-Kindergarten in New York City (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg Approval Rating at Lowest Point in Two Years

When it comes to Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job performance, 42% approve of the job he is doing in office.  This includes 9% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 33% who say he is doing a good one.  33% rate his performance as fair while 22% call it poor.  Two percent are unsure.  Bloomberg’s job approval rating is his lowest since August 2011.  At that time, 39% approved of how Mayor Bloomberg was doing in office.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll reported this question earlier this month, 46% approved of how Bloomberg was doing as mayor.  About one-third — 33% — gave him fair grades, and 19% believed he fell short.  Three percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Bloomberg Defeated in Hypothetical Fourth Term Matchup

Given Mayor Bloomberg’s lackluster approval rating and the desire by many voters to move away from his administration’s policies, it’s not surprising that voters are ready for a new mayor.  If Mayor Bloomberg were allowed and chose to run for a fourth term as an independent, Bloomberg would finish a distant second behind de Blasio.  56% would support de Blasio.  20% would back Bloomberg while 17% would support Lhota.  Less than one percent would vote for someone else, and 7% are undecided.

Table: Hypothetical 2013 Race for New York City Mayor with Bloomberg (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Unsure about City’s Future but See Better Big Apple than in the Past 

Do voters think the city is moving in the right direction?  They divide.  46% believe the city is on the right track while 43% think it is moving in the wrong direction.  11% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll reported this question in the previous poll, similar proportions held these views.  47% said the city was on track while 43% reported it had lost its way.  10% were unsure.

But, overall, 61% of voters believe the city is better than it was 20 years ago.  23% say it is worse while 13% think it has stayed the same.  Three percent are unsure.

There are racial differences.  71% of white voters report the city has improved over the last two decades.  This compares with 54% of Latino voters and only 46% of African American voters who say the same.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Has New York City Gotten Better, Worse, or Has it Stayed the Same in the Past 20 Years? (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

9/10: Syria Viewed as Threat, but Majority Opposes U.S. Military Involvement

While a majority of Americans think Syria’s use of chemical weapons threatens national security, they are against military involvement in the region.  According to this national McClatchy-Marist Poll, nearly six in ten U.S. residents are concerned about long-term military involvement in the area, and only 21% believe waging limited air strikes in Syria would improve the situation in the region.

A majority of Americans do not want Congress to approve the president’s proposal to strike Syria.  However, if the president is able to win Congressional approval, Americans divide about U.S. military action in Syria.

Click Here for Complete September 10, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“The public and Congress still need to be convinced about what the president wants to accomplish and that he has a plan that will work,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The public is worried that the president does not have a clear direction and that military action will lead to long-term entanglements.”

When it comes to President Barack Obama’s proposal to use limited air strikes on military targets in Syria, 58% of Americans oppose such a response.  32% favor limited U.S. air strikes, and 11% are unsure.  Looking at party, about two-thirds of Republicans — 66%, six in ten independents — 60%, and half — 50% — of Democrats are against air strikes as a military response.

Americans are even more opposed to putting boots on the ground in Syria.  Most — 80% — are against the use of U.S. ground troops in Syria.  Only 13% favor such military involvement, and 7% are unsure.  Regardless of party affiliation, there is consensus on this question.

Half of Americans do not believe the president has spelled out his strategy.  50% do not think President Obama has a clear idea about what he wants to do in Syria.  41% believe he has a plan mapped out, and 8% are unsure.  Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide.  However, even 32% of Democrats believe the president is unclear about the nation’s next steps in Syria.  59% of Democrats think Mr. Obama has a plan at the ready.  75% of Republicans and 52% of independents do not believe the president has a clear idea about what he wants to do in Syria.

This fuels the underlying fear of long-term military involvement.  Almost six in ten Americans — 57% — say it is very likely or likely that limited air strikes on Syria will lead to a longer commitment in the region.  37%, however, do not expect continued involvement, and 6% are unsure.

Despite Americans’ hesitation to get involved in the region, 53% of Americans report Syria’s use of chemical weapons is a serious threat to the national security of the United States or its interests in the region.  39% do not think these actions are a significant threat, and 8% are unsure.

Table: Favor or Oppose Limited U.S. Air Strikes in Syria (U.S. Adults)

Table: Favor or Oppose U.S. Ground Troops in Syria (U.S. Adults)

Table: Does President Obama Have a Clear Strategy for Syria (U.S. Adults)

Table: Would Limited U.S. Air Strikes in Syria Lead to Long-Term Military Commitment? (U.S. Adults)

Table: Does Syria’s Use of Chemical Weapons Pose a Threat to the U.S.? (U.S. Adults)

Majority’s Message to Congress: “Keep U.S. Out of Syria”

53% of Americans do not want Congress to go along with President Obama’s request for a U.S. military response to Syria’s use of chemical weapons on its citizens.  38% want Congress to support the president’s request, and 8% are unsure.

While 65% of Republicans want Congress to reject the president’s request, nearly three in ten — 28% — want Congress to affirm it.  Among independents, 54% want Congress to say, “No,” to the president while 36% want Congress to back his request.  Democrats divide.  48% want Congress to support the president’s proposal while 44% want them to oppose it.

If Congress goes along with the president’s call for military action in Syria, Americans are somewhat more receptive to the idea of using military force in the region, but they are divided.  48% favor limited air strikes while 46% oppose them.  Six percent are unsure.

Democrats bolster support.  57% of Democrats favor these strikes if Congress supports the president’s request.  However, 55% of Republicans oppose them.  Independents divide.  48% would oppose these attacks by the United States while 45% would favor them if the president wins cooperation from Congress.

Politically, 54% of registered voters say that it would make no difference to their vote if their elected official in Congress voted to approve U.S. air strikes on military targets in Syria.  But, for voters that believe this issue matters to their vote, by about two to one, they are less likely to support their member of Congress if they agree to a military response in Syria — 28% — while 13% who would be more likely to vote for their elected representative.  Four percent are unsure.

Regardless of party affiliation, a majority reports their vote would not be influenced if their congressperson voted with the president.  However, 34% of Republicans and 32% of independent voters would be less likely to cast their ballot for their elected official if he or she supports the president’s request.

Table: Should Congress Support or Oppose President Obama’s Request for U.S. Military Response to Syria? (U.S. Adults)

Table: Support U.S. Air Strikes if Congress Approves President Obama’s Request for Military Action (U.S. Adults)

Table: Likelihood of Voting for Member of Congress who Voted to Approve Air Strikes in Syria (U.S. Registered Voters)

“Don’t Go It Alone,” Say Most Americans

If Congress denies the president’s request to use military force in Syria, 74% of Americans do not want the president to authorize air strikes on Syria.  One in five — 20% — does want the president to take unilateral action, and 6% are unsure.  81% of Republicans and 78% of independents do not want the president to act without the approval of Congress.  Nearly two-thirds of Democrats — 65% — say the same.

However, for a majority of Americans — 52%, the president’s request for Congressional approval to use military force in Syria makes him look strong.  About one-third — 33% — perceives him as weak, and 15% are unsure.

While half of Republicans — 50% — think the president’s request makes him look weak, 40% of the GOP view his actions as strong.  66% of Democrats and nearly half of independent voters — 49% — view the president’s request to Congress in the same way.

Do Americans want the U.S. to forge international alliances before taking military action in Syria?  76% say it is necessary for the U.S. to have support from other countries before proceeding with a military response in Syria.  22% believe it is not necessary, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Should the U.S. Launch Air Strikes without Congressional Approval (U.S. Adults)

Table: Perception of President Obama’s Request to Take Military Action in Syria (U.S. Adults)

Table: Necessity of Having Support of Other Countries Prior to Taking Military Action in Syria (U.S. Adults)

Would the Ends Justify the Means?

Half of adults nationally — 50% — do not think waging limited air strikes on Syria is likely to achieve America’s military goals.  41% of Americans disagree.  Eight percent are unsure.

There is a partisan divide here.  A slim majority of Democrats — 51% — think it is either very likely or likely that the United States will achieve its military goals in Syria.  This compares with 36% of Republicans.  Independents align with Republicans on this question.  Only 35% of these voters think the U.S. will meet its military goals in the region.

What kind of impact do Americans think the use of limited air strikes by the United States would have?  A plurality of Americans — 46% — think such military action would make the situation worse in the area.  21% believe it would make it better, and 29% say it would make no difference.  Four percent are unsure.

Americans divide over whether or not air strikes would discourage Syria from using chemical weapons on its citizens in the future.  49% think U.S. action would not, and 47% report it is likely that U.S. military involvement would successfully restrain Syria from future use of chemical weapons.  Four percent are unsure.

When it comes to whether or not military air strikes would keep other countries from employing chemical weapons, 50% of Americans believe it is either very likely — 16% — or likely — 34% — that U.S. action would accomplish this goal.  45% of adults say it is not likely U.S. air strikes would result in future restraint by other countries.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Likelihood U.S. Air Strikes Would Achieve U.S. Military Goals (U.S. Adults)

Table: Would U.S. Air Strikes in Syria Make the Situation in the Region Better? (U.S. Adults)

Table: Likelihood U.S. Air Strikes Would Discourage Syria from Using Chemical Weapons on Its Citizens (U.S. Adults)

Table: Likelihood U.S. Air Strikes Would Discourage Other Countries from Using Chemical Weapons (U.S. Adults)

Obama’s Foreign Policy Rating at Lowest Point in Presidency

There’s more bad news for President Obama.  The president’s approval rating on foreign policy is his lowest since taking office.  38% approve of how he is handling the issue while majority of registered voters — 54% — disapprove.  Eight percent are unsure.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 41% approved of how Mr. Obama was dealing with foreign policy.  48% disapproved, and 10% were unsure.  That 41% approval rating on foreign policy was the president’s lowest until this time.

Table: Handling Foreign Policy

Table: Handling Foreign Policy (Over Time)

President’s Approval Rating at 44%

Voters divide about the job President Obama is doing in office.  While 44% approve, 47% disapprove.  Nine percent are unsure.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 41% of registered voters thought well of his job performance.  48% gave him low marks, and 11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

 

9/9: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Do Americans think Syria is a threat to their national security?  Do they support military involvement in Syria, and do Americans want Congress to approve the president’s request?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

 

Next Page »