12/11: Clinton and Christie Neck and Neck in Hypothetical 2016 Matchup, but Clinton Bests Other Republican Hopefuls

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Hillary Clinton would be the front-runner against a host of potential Republican challengers by double digits.  However, there is one exception.  She and Chris Christie would be locked in a close contest, separated by just three percentage points.

Click Here for Complete December 11, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Democrats divide about whether they want a nominee who will continue the policies of President Obama or move in a different direction although strong Democrats still want a nominee who will follow in Obama’s footsteps,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Most Republicans still want a nominee who will stand on conservative principles rather than one who may appeal to more moderate voters.” 

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

• Clinton receives 48% to 45% for Chris Christie.  Seven percent are undecided.  In July, Clinton was ahead of Christie by six percentage points, 47% to 41%.  12% were undecided.
• When matched against Marco Rubio, 52% back Clinton compared with 42% for Rubio.  Five percent are undecided.  In the summer, half of voters — 50% — were for Clinton compared with 38% for Rubio.  12% were undecided.
• Clinton also has majority support — 53% — when she faces Jeb Bush — 41%.  Six percent are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, 48% were for Clinton compared with 40% for Bush.  12%, at that time, were undecided.
• Against Rand Paul, Clinton has 55% to 40% for Paul.  Five percent are undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s July survey, 50% were for Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  11% were undecided.
• Against Paul Ryan, Clinton leads by 16 percentage points.  56% of voters support Clinton compared with 40% for Ryan.  Four percent are undecided.  Five months ago, 53% were for Clinton compared with 37% for Ryan.  Nine percent, then, were undecided.
• Clinton — 58% — outpaces Rick Perry — 37% — by more than 20 percentage points.  Five percent are undecided.  In July, 52% were for Clinton compared with 36% for Perry.  12% were undecided.
• When Clinton faces off against Ted Cruz, she garners 57% of the vote to 35% for Cruz.  Seven percent are undecided.
• Clinton — 59% — outdistances Palin — 36% — by 23 percentage points.  Four percent are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Perry

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Cruz

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Palin

Clinton Clear Democratic Front-runner…Christie Edges Competitors in Crowded GOP Field 

What are the chances that Clinton would receive her party’s nomination?  If she were to declare her candidacy and the primary were held today, Clinton is a strong favorite outdistancing her closest Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, by more than five to one.  However, if Clinton were to sit out 2016, Joe Biden defeats his closest competitor, Elizabeth Warren by double digits.

Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

• 65% Hillary Clinton
• 12% Joe Biden
•   9% Elizabeth Warren
•   3% Andrew Cuomo
•   1% Martin O’Malley
•   9% undecided

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 63% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents supported Clinton.  13% backed Biden, and 6% were for Cuomo.  One percent supported O’Malley, and 18%, at that time, were undecided.

How would the contest look if Hillary Clinton decided not to run?  Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

• 45% Joe Biden
• 25% Elizabeth Warren
• 11% Andrew Cuomo
•   4% Martin O’Malley
• 15% undecided

When it comes to the future of the Democratic Party, 49% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents think it’s more important to have a candidate who will continue the policies of President Barack Obama.  46% prefer a nominee who will move in a different direction.  Four percent are unsure.  However, two-thirds of strong Democrats — 67% — want a nominee who will build upon the Obama presidency compared with only 37% of soft Democrats who share this view.  In McClatchy-Marist’s July  survey, 46% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents said it was more important for the nominee to advance the policies of Mr. Obama while 44% wanted a candidate who would shift gears.  10%, at that time, were undecided.

Looking at the bid for the Republican nomination, in this hypothetical contest, Chris Christie is ahead of his closest competitor, Rand Paul, by six percentage points.  Others follow closely behind.

Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

• 18% Chris Christie
• 12% Rand Paul
• 11% Paul Ryan
• 10% Ted Cruz
• 10% Jeb Bush
•   8% Sarah Palin
•   7% Marco Rubio
•   4% Scott Walker
•   4% Rick Santorum
•   3% Rick Perry
• 13% undecided

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 15% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents were for Christie compared with 13% for Paul Ryan.  12% were behind Rubio while Jeb Bush garnered 10%.  Nine percent supported Rand Paul while Cruz received the backing of 7%.  Perry had 4% while Walker and Santorum each garnered 2%.  One percent supported Bobby Jindal, and an additional 1% backed Susana Martinez.  One in four — 25% — was undecided.

A Republican nominee who stands on conservative principles is more important than one who can win, according to 67% of Republicans and Republican leading independents.  However, more than three in ten — 31% — say the priority should be a candidate who can win the White House.  Two percent are unsure.  Similar proportions shared these views in July.  At that time, 64% thought it was more important for the nominee to reflect GOP principles while 31% preferred a strong candidate who could defeat his or her Democratic opponent.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus without Hillary Clinton

Table: Priority for Democratic Presidential Nominee:  the Same or Different Vision as President Obama

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Republican Presidential Nominee:  Conservative Principles or Electability

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

12/10: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, is there a clear front-runner?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

 

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

12/10: Disapproval of Obama and GOP Congress at All-Time High… Two-Thirds View Nation on Wrong Track

Voters nationally are dissatisfied with the country’s elected officials and the state of the nation.  While President Barack Obama’s job approval rating hovers in the low 40’s, a majority of registered voters say they are displeased with how President Obama is doing his job.  To make matters worse for the president, it is the first time a majority of Americans have an unfavorable view of him.

President Obama isn’t alone.  The job approval ratings of the Republicans and Democrats in Congress continue to be low, and voters’ dissatisfaction with the Congressional GOP is at its highest.  Many voters give the nation’s elected officials in Washington poor grades.  Americans’ attitudes toward the direction of the nation are pessimistic.  The proportion of adults who think the country is off track is the largest in more than two years.

“The government shutdown and the troubled launch of Obamacare have confirmed for many Americans that Washington is broken,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “There certainly isn’t any grade inflation when it comes to how Americans rate the nation’s political leadership.”

Click Here for Complete December 10, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables 

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

When it comes to President Obama’s job performance, 43% of registered voters approve of how he is doing.  However, a majority — 53% — disapproves of his job performance.  Four percent are unsure.  This is the president’s highest disapproval rating since taking office.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in September, 44% of registered voters approved of how President Obama was doing in office.  47% disapproved, and 9% were unsure.

By party:

• Obama retains the support of his base.  77% of Democrats approve of his performance while 18% disapprove.  Five percent are unsure.  In September, 76% approved, 14% disapproved, and 10% were unsure.
• Most Republicans — 90% — disapprove of how President Obama is doing his job.  Eight percent approve, and 3% disapprove.  In September’s survey, 86% gave the president subpar grades, 10% thought well of his job performance, and 4% were unsure.
• Among independents, 41% approve of the job the president is doing.  56% disapprove, and 3% are unsure.  In September, 39% of independents thought Obama’s job performance was on target.  50% believed it missed the mark, and 11% were unsure.

Looking at President Obama’s favorable rating, 46% of registered voters have a favorable view of Obama.  For the first time, a majority — 52% — has an unfavorable impression of him, and 3% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 47% had a favorable opinion of the president.  46% had a lesser view of him, and 7% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

Low Marks on Handling of Economy, Foreign Policy

Only 40% of voters approve of how President Obama is dealing with the economy, and 58% disapprove.  Two percent are unsure.  The proportion of voters who disapproves is the largest since November 2011 when 59% said he fell short on the economy, and 36% of voters gave the president high marks.  Four percent were unsure.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 37% of voters approved of how Obama was handling the economy.  56% disapproved, and 7% were unsure.

When it comes to foreign policy, 46% approve of how Obama is dealing with the issue while 51% disapprove.  Four percent are unsure.   While a majority disapproves of how the president is handling foreign policy, there has been an increase in his approval rating in this area.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in September amid heightened concern over the use of chemical weapons by Syria, 38% approved of how President Obama managed foreign affairs while 54% disapproved.  Eight percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy (Over Time)

Table: Handling Foreign Policy

Table: Handling Foreign Policy (Over Time)

Voters Dissatisfied with Congress 

Voters nationwide do not hold the Republicans and Democrats in Congress in high esteem.  Only 22% of voters approve of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing.  74% disapprove, and 4% have either never heard of them or are unsure how to rate them.  The Congressional Republicans previously experienced their highest level of voter dissatisfaction in April when 71% said their performance was subpar.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 22% thought well of the job the GOP in Congress was doing.  About two-thirds — 66% — believed they fell short, and 12% had either never heard of the Republicans in Congress or were unsure how to rate them.

Looking across the aisle to the Democrats in Congress, 33% of voters approve of how they are doing their job while 64% disapprove, and 3% have either never heard of them or are unsure how to rate them.  This is the highest level of voter dissatisfaction with the Congressional Democrats since November 2011 when 65% of voters gave Congressional Democrats low marks.

In McClatchy-Marist’s July survey, 33% approved of the job Congressional Democrats were doing in office.  57% disapproved, and 10% had either never heard of them or were unsure how to rate them.

Going into a midterm election year, what do each party’s electoral prospects look like?  Looking at the generic ballot, voters divide.  43% say they would support the Democratic candidate in their Congressional district while 43% say they would support the Republican candidate.  Six would vote for neither, and 8% are undecided.

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: 2014 Congressional Elections

Washington Leaders Receive Poor Grades from Americans

Overall, how do Americans grade the performances of our nation’s elected officials in Washington, D.C.?  More than two-thirds of adults nationally — 68% — give them below average grades.  This includes 31% who rate them with a “D” and 37% who give them an “F.”  24% grade them with a “C” while 7% give the country’s elected officials a “B.”  Only 1% says they deserve an “A.”

When it comes to gridlock on the federal budget, who is to blame?  Nearly half of adults nationally — 48% — say the Congressional Republicans are at fault for the gridlock on the federal budget.  37% point a finger at President Obama.  12% blame both the Republicans and the president while 3% blame neither or are unsure.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, 48% blamed the Congressional GOP, 34% placed the responsibility on President Obama, and 11% pointed a finger at both.  Seven percent blamed neither or were unsure.

Table: Grade Given to Elected Officials in Washington, D.C.

Table: Blame for Gridlock on the Federal Budget

Pessimism about the Direction of the Country at Highest Point in Two Years

About two-thirds of adults nationally — 66% — say the country is moving in the wrong direction.  30% believe it is moving in the right one, and 4% are unsure.  The proportion of residents who report the country has fallen off track is the highest since November 2011 when 25% thought the nation was on the right road, and 70% believed it needed a course correction.  Four percent, at the time, were unsure.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in July, 30% said the country was traveling in the right direction.  60% reported it was moving in the wrong one, and 11% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Over Time)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

12/9: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Have Americans lost confidence in their elected officials in Washington?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

 

 

12/9: Nearly Seven in Ten Americans Not Optimistic about Federal Budget Deal

Despite signals from lawmakers that a budget deal may be struck before the next deadline, many Americans aren’t holding their breath that an agreement will be reached.  68% of adults nationally do not think President Barack Obama and the Republicans in Congress will have a meeting of the minds before time runs out.  28% say they will reach an agreement, and 4% are unsure.  Almost identical proportions of registered voters share these views.

Click Here for Complete December 9, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Given the track record, it’s not surprising that Americans are pessimistic,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “There are no winners in the budget battle in Washington as far as public opinion is concerned.”

The sentiment in the nation has soured over budget deliberations between the president and Congress.  When asked in December 2012 if Mr. Obama and the Congressional GOP would reach a fiscal cliff deal before the end of the year, a majority of voters — 52% — believed they would find common ground while 42% thought they would not come to an agreement.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

At least six in ten voters think the deadline will pass without a budget in place regardless of party affiliation.

• 60% of Democrats do not think lawmakers will reach a consensus while 34% believe they will.  Six percent are unsure.  Last year, Democrats were much more optimistic.  68% of Democrats, then, thought a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff would be made.  26% did not think the two parties would reach an agreement, and 6% were unsure.
• Three in four Republicans — 75% — say a budget plan will not be in place while 23% report they will reach a deal.  Two percent are unsure.  Pessimism among Republicans has grown.  Last year, 54% of the GOP said a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff would not be reached.  40% thought a compromise would be found, and 6% were unsure.
• 69% of independents think federal lawmakers will not be successful in reaching a budget deal while 30% believe they will.  One percent is unsure.  In that previous McClatchy-Marist Poll, independents divided.  48% believed a fiscal cliff deal would be brokered while 46% said it would not be.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: Will a Federal Budget Deal be Reached by the Next Deadline?

Cut Spending to Reduce the Deficit?  Three in Four Prefer another Option

How should the nation close its budget gap?  38% prefer a combined approach which includes both raising revenues such as limiting tax deductions on higher income and cutting spending, including reductions in entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid.  37% of Americans would like the government to mostly increase revenues.  16% would like to see cuts to government spending.  Nine percent are unsure.

In April, 42% of residents wanted to both reduce spending and increase revenues.  35% preferred increasing revenues only while 17% wanted to slash spending.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Among registered voters, 38% would like to both increase revenue and decrease spending.   37% support increasing revenues while 16% want to cut spending.  Eight percent are unsure.  In the spring, 42% endorsed both raising revenue and cutting spending.  34% preferred only raising revenue, and 18% wanted only spending cuts.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Who has the better approach to deal with the federal budget deficit?  A plurality of Americans — 46% — say members of the GOP in Congress have a clearer vision while 41% think Obama has a keener approach.  Less than one percent says both are capable to deal with the issue while 8% believe neither Obama nor the Republicans has a solid approach to tackle the federal budget deficit.  Five percent are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, 44% of adults said Obama had the better approach while 40% thought the Republicans had the better plan.  One percent thought both had a good vision while 9% believed neither had a clear sense of what needed to be done.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide.  Most Democrats think President Obama has the better approach to deal with the federal budget deficit, little changed from last April.  Among Republicans, there has been a slight bump in the proportion who believe the Republicans in Congress have the better plan.  Independents divide.

• 76% of Democrats say President Obama has the clearer vision to deal with the deficit.  This is little changed from 78% in the spring.
• 87% of Republicans say the members of their own party can lead the nation out of the deficit.  This is up slightly from 81% in April.
• 45% of independent voters say the Congressional GOP has the better approach to take on the budget deficit while 40% report Obama has the clearer plan.  This compares with 40% in the spring who said the Republicans in Congress had the stronger approach.  39%, at that time, reported Obama had the better plan.

Table: Method to Reduce the Federal Budget Deficit

Table: Whether Congressional Republicans or President Obama has the Better Approach to Deal with the Deficit

Few Americans View Positive Effect of Sequestration 

Eighty-five billion dollars in across the board spending cuts took effect in March, and only 15% of Americans think those cuts have had a positive impact on the nation’s economy.  This compares with 38% who say they have had a negative impact on the economy and 40% who believe the cuts have had no impact at all on the nation’s economic status.  Six percent are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since it was last reported in the spring.  At that time, 14% said the spending cuts did not improve the economy.  36% of residents thought the reduction in spending had a negative effect on the economy while 40% reported it had no impact at all on the economy.  10%, then, were unsure.

Among registered voters, 15% think sequestration had a positive impact on the economy.  37% believed it had a negative one, and 42% said it had no effect at all.  Six percent are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 13% of voters thought the spending cuts were beneficial to the economy.  36% reported they had a negative impact, and 42% said sequestration made no difference.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

On the home front, there has been a small bump in the proportion of Americans who say sequestration has had a negative effect on their family.  31% have this view compared with only 6% who think it has made their family’s financial situation better.  More than six in ten — 61% — believe the spending cuts have had no effect on them personally.  Two percent are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, 26% of residents thought sequestration had a detrimental impact on their family while 6% said it had a positive one.  Close to two-thirds of adults nationally — 65% — believed sequestration did not impact them.  Three percent were unsure.

Table: Impact of Sequester on Economy

Table: Personal Impact of Sequester

Round Two… Slim Majority Wants to Reopen Negotiations

Under sequestration, another round of spending cuts is set to take place, but a slim majority of Americans aren’t happy to see those reductions go forward.  51% think talks should be opened up again, and some of the cuts should be replaced with increases to taxes and fees.  39% believe the planned cuts should proceed.  Nine percent are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide.

• 64% of Democrats nationally would like to reopen negotiations while 29% want the spending cuts to take place.
• 55% of Republicans want the spending cuts to go into effect while 38% want to revisit the cuts.
• 52% of independent voters are for reopening negotiations while 40% are for implementing the planned spending cuts.

To prevent further spending cuts, which methods do Americans find acceptable?

• About two-thirds — 66% — think increasing the social security tax for high wage earners is acceptable.  30% do not think such an action is acceptable.  Four percent are unsure.
• Nearly six in ten — 57% — think it is okay to tax Internet sales.  39% oppose this proposal.  Five percent are unsure.
• Only 39% say it is acceptable to increase fees at national parks.  59% say it is not acceptable.  Two percent are unsure.

To avoid increasing taxes and fees, which methods do Americans find acceptable?

• A majority of Americans — 55% — say it is acceptable to reduce pay and benefits to federal employees.  42% are against this proposal, and 3% are unsure.
• Nearly half of residents — 49% — find it acceptable to make cuts to the Affordable Health Care Act known as Obamacare.  46% think this is unacceptable, and 5% are unsure.
• 43% believe it is acceptable to cut defense spending.  This compares with a majority — 54% — who believe this is out of line.  Two percent are unsure.
• Only 18% support cuts to Medicare spending while eight in ten — 80% — think this is unacceptable.  Two percent are unsure.
• Just 13% think it is acceptable to cut Social Security spending.  86% do not believe this is acceptable, and 1% is unsure.

Table: Should Additional Sequestration Spending Cuts Take Effect?

Table: Is Increasing Social Security Tax for High Wage Earners Acceptable to Prevent Further Spending Cuts?

Table: Is Taxing Internet Sales Acceptable to Prevent Further Spending Cuts?

Table: Is Increasing Fees at National Parks Acceptable to Prevent Further Spending Cuts?

Table: Is Reducing Pay and Benefits to Federal Employees Acceptable to Avoid Increasing Taxes and Fees?

Table: Is Cutting Obamacare Acceptable to Avoid Increasing Taxes and Fees?

Table: Is Cutting Defense Spending Acceptable to Avoid Increasing Taxes and Fees?

Table: Is Cutting Medicare Spending Acceptable to Avoid Increasing Taxes and Fees?

Table: Is Cutting Social Security Spending Acceptable to Avoid Increasing Taxes and Fees?

Majority Pessimistic about the Future of the U.S. Economy 

Overall, what do Americans think of the nation’s economy?  55% think the worst of the country’s economic conditions are still ahead.  42% believe the worst is behind us, and 3% are unsure.

When McClatchy-Marist reported this question in December 2012, 53% of Americans said the worst was yet to come.  42% reported the worst was over, and 5% were unsure.

Looking at Americans’ attitudes toward the future of their own finances, 43% say, in the next year, they will be about the same economically.  25% report they will be better off while 32% say they will be worse off.  In McClatchy-Marist’s July survey, 39% of residents thought their finances would not change in the next year.  29% said they would be better off, and 32% reported they would be economically worse off.

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse?

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse? (Over Time)

Table: Economically Better in Next Year

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

12/9: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Do Americans expect a budget deal to be reached before the upcoming deadline?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

11/26: Cuomo Well-Positioned to Launch Re-Election Bid

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo is a strong, early favorite to win re-election as he heads into 2014.  When matched against several potential Republican gubernatorial candidates, Cuomo leads each of them by at least 40 percentage points.

“Right now, Governor Cuomo is in good shape to win a second term.  None of Governor Cuomo’s likely challengers are in striking distance,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, voters think any plans Cuomo might have for 2016 need to take a backseat until Hillary Clinton declares her intentions.”

Click Here for Complete November 26, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

If the 2014 election for New York State Governor were held today, here is how Governor Cuomo would fare among registered voters in New York State:

• Against Steve McLaughlin, Cuomo would garner 64% while McLaughlin would receive 24%.  12% are undecided.
• 65% would back Cuomo compared with 23% for Rob Astorino.  12% are undecided.
• If Cuomo were to face off in a rematch against Carl Paladino, Cuomo — 67% — would defeat Paladino — 24% — by 43 percentage points.  Nine percent are undecided.
• 70% of registered voters would support Cuomo in a contest against Donald Trump — 24%.  Seven percent are undecided.

A majority of registered voters in New York State — 52% — approves of the job the governor is doing.  This includes 8% of voters who think Cuomo is doing an excellent job and 44% who describe Cuomo’s job performance as good.  31% give Cuomo fair marks while 13% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 54% of registered voters approved of how Mr. Cuomo was performing in office.  27% rated his job as fair while 14% believed his performance was subpar.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

By party:

• Cuomo’s approval rating is strong among his base.  63% of Democrats statewide think well of how Cuomo is doing his job.  This compares with 66% in April.
• Among Republicans, 39% approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  This is little changed from the spring when 37% had this view.
• Cuomo’s approval rating has changed little among non-enrolled voters.  48% of these voters approve of Cuomo’s job performance compared with 46% in April.

By region:

• New York voters’ rating of Cuomo has changed little throughout the state.
• In New York City, 56% of voters give Cuomo high marks.  A similar 58% had this opinion in the previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll.
• In the suburbs of New York City, 57% applaud Cuomo’s job performance.  Here, too, Cuomo’s approval rating is status quo.  59% of suburban voters thought this way in April.
• A plurality of upstate voters — 47% — approve of how Governor Cuomo is doing his job.  This is comparable to the 48% in this region who said the same in the spring. 

Cuomo also continues to be well-liked in New York State.  Two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — have a favorable view of the governor.  28% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 6% have either never heard of Cuomo or are unsure how to rate him.  In April, similar proportions of registered voters shared these views.  65% had a positive view of Cuomo.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 8% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/McLaughlin

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Astorino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Paladino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Trump

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Cuomo Viewed as Making Positive Mark on Albany and Focused on Empire State

About six in ten registered voters in New York State — 61% — think Cuomo is changing the way things in Albany work for the better.  35% do not think the governor is improving Albany, and 4% are unsure.  In April, 58% of voters thought Governor Cuomo was positively changing state government.  33% had the opposite view, and 9% were unsure.

Is Cuomo paying too much attention to national politics and not enough attention to the Empire State?  59% do not think he is focused on the national agenda while 35% say he is.  Six percent are unsure.  In the spring, 51% of voters believed Cuomo’s attention was focused on New York while 40% thought he was too concerned with national politics.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

What are voters’ perceptions of Cuomo’s political ideology?  45% say he is a moderate.  35% think he is a liberal while 11% believe he is a conservative.  Nine percent are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 38% described Cuomo as a moderate.  34% said he was a liberal, and 13% reported he was conservative.  15%, then, were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Attention to National Politics

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

2016: Cuomo Trails Clinton by 50 Points Among Dems, but Both Lead Christie 

If Cuomo were to turn to the national stage and run for president of the United States in 2016, what would his electoral chances look like?  In this hypothetical contest for the Democratic nomination, among New York State registered Democrats, Cuomo comes in a very distant second behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  Clinton leads all of her potential Democratic opponents by more than four to one in New York.

64% of registered Democrats statewide support Clinton compared with 14% for Andrew Cuomo.  Eight percent back Vice President Joe Biden while Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren garners 6%.  Three percent support Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and 5% are undecided.

On the Republican side, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie leads a crowded GOP primary field.  Among registered Republicans in New York State, Christie has the backing of 40%.  10% are for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul while the same proportion — 10% — supports Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has the support of 8% compared with 5% for Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.  Texas Governor Rick Perry, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker each garners 3%.  New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has the backing of 2%.  An additional 2% support former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.  15% are undecided.

However, when matched against Cuomo or Clinton in the general election contest, Christie does not fare as well in this very blue state.  Cuomo leads Christie, 51% to 44%, among New York’s registered voters.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton has a wider lead over Christie.  57% of registered voters in New York State support Clinton compared with 39% for Christie.  Four percent are undecided.

Table: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary (NYS Democrats)

Table: 2016 Republican Presidential Primary (NYS Republicans)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Cuomo/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Clinton/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Voters Don’t Blame Cuomo for State’s Sluggish Economy 

67% of registered voters think Governor Cuomo inherited the state’s economic woes while 27% say the condition of the economy is a result of his policies.  Five percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist last reported this question, 74% thought Cuomo inherited New York’s economic slump while 17% said the state’s economic conditions are mostly a result of his own policies.  Nine percent were unsure.

Looking at how New York’s economy is performing, a slim majority of registered voters in New York — 51% — say it has stayed about the same.  This compares with 20% who report it has gotten better, and 29% who say it has gotten worse.  In April, nearly identical proportions shared these views.  51% thought New York’s economy was steady state.  21% said it was getting better, and 29% believed it was getting worse.

On the personal side, 52% of New York voters believe their personal family finances will not change in the coming year. 31% think they will get better while 17% believe they will get worse.  In March, 56% said their money matters would be steady state.  25% thought they would improve while 19% said they would decline.

Table: New York State Economic Conditions Inherited or Result of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Policies

Table: New York State Economy

Table: New York State Economy Over Time

 

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year Over Time

Opposition to Hydrofracking Grows

On the issue of hydrofracking, 47% of adults in New York oppose hydrofracking at the Marcellus Shale to extract natural gas.  37% support this technique, and 16% are unsure.  When this question was last reported in March, 39% opposed hydrofracking while 40% supported it.  21%, at that time, were unsure.

The views of registered voters mirror those of New Yorkers overall.  49% are against using hydrofracking while 39% support it. 12% are unsure.  In March, voters divided.  41% opposed hydrofracking, and 40% supported it.  One in five — 20% — was unsure.

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Adults)

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Registered Voters)

State Senate and Assembly Approval Ratings Still in the Basement

While a majority of voters approve of Governor Cuomo’s job performance, the New York State Senate and Assembly do not fare as well.  Only 27% of registered voters in New York State approve of the job the Senate is doing.  Included here are 2% who say they are doing an excellent job and 25% who think they are doing a good one.  47% rate the legislative body’s performance as fair.  22% report they are doing a poor job, and 4% have either never heard of the Senate or are unsure how to rate it.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last released this question in April, 29% gave the Senate high marks.  41% thought its performance was average, and 26% said it fell short.  Four percent, at that time, either never heard of it or were unsure how to rate it.

When it comes to the New York State Assembly, 26% think it is doing either an excellent — 2% — or good — 24% — job in office.  47% rate this legislative body’s performance as fair while 23% report its job is subpar.  Four percent are unsure.

In that previous survey, 27% of voters thought highly of how the Assembly was performing its job.  42% gave it mediocre marks while 24% said it was performing poorly.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Half Say State Moving in Right Direction 

50% of registered voters think New York State is traveling on the right course.  45%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong direction, and 5% are unsure.  In April, 53% of voters said the Empire State was on the right course.  41% believed it was off track.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS Over Time

Steady State for Schumer and Gillibrand

A majority of voters continue to give Chuck Schumer a positive rating for his performance as senator.  56% of registered voters in New York State approve of how Schumer is doing his job.  This includes 17% who say Schumer is doing an excellent job and 39% who think he is doing a good one.  26% rate Schumer’s performance in office as fair while 15% say he is doing a poor job.  Four percent have either never heard of Schumer or are unsure how to rate him.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 58% praised Schumer.  24% thought he did an average job, and 13% said he fell short.  Six percent, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

There has also been little change in the perception of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance.  47% think Gillibrand is doing either an excellent — 13% — or good — 34% — job.  30% give Gillibrand fair marks while 12% say she is performing poorly in her post.  12% have either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

In April, 48% approved of Gillibrand’s job performance.  27% gave her average grades while 9% said she performed poorly.  17% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

Obama Approval Rating at Lowest Point in New York State

Four in ten registered voters — 40% — approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  This is Obama’s lowest approval rating in New York since taking office.  Included in Mr. Obama’s approval rating are 11% who think he is doing an excellent job and 29% who believe he is doing a good one.  25% give him fair marks while 36% rate the president’s job performance as poor.  Less than 1% has either never heard of Obama or are unsure how to rate him.

The president’s approval rating has plummeted.  In April, 52% gave the president high marks.  22% thought his job performance was average while 26% said he fell short.  One percent, at that time, had either never heard of Obama or was unsure how to rate him.

Table: Obama Approval Rating

Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

11/4: De Blasio with BIG Lead over Lhota Going into Election Day

The clock is counting down to Election Day, and in this final NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Democrat Bill de Blasio has a very wide lead over Republican Joe Lhota among New York City likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  De Blasio has the support of 65% of likely voters while Lhota receives 24%.  Independence candidate Adolfo Carrion has 4% while 1% of likely voters citywide wants another candidate to be elected.  Six percent are undecided.

Click Here for Complete November 4, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“Bill de Blasio continues to be the overwhelming favorite with New York City voters while Joe Lhota can’t get any traction,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Even a Peyton Manning fourth quarter comeback wouldn’t be enough to close this large gap.”

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist reported this question last month, 67% of likely voters citywide supported de Blasio.  23% backed Lhota while Carrion had the support of 2%.  One percent was for another candidate, and 7% were undecided.

By party:

• Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 79% are for de Blasio compared with 14% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  In October, 82% backed de Blasio while 13% were for Lhota.  One percent was behind Carrion.
• When it comes to likely Republican voters, 71% are for Lhota while 21% are for de Blasio.  Three percent support Carrion.  In that previous survey, 69% of likely Republican voters backed Lhota while 16% were for de Blasio, and 1% supported Carrion.
• Among non-enrolled voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 50% support de Blasio.  29% are for Lhota while 11% back Carrion.  Last month, 58% of likely non-enrolled voters were for de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota.  Seven percent, at that time, backed Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio receives, at least, majority support.   Among African American voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 90% support de Blasio.  Lhota and Carrion each receives 2%.  72% of Latino voters are for de Blasio while 10% are for Lhota, and 9% back Carrion.  Among likely voters who are white, 53% support de Blasio, 39% back Lhota, and 2% are for Carrion.

Before last Wednesday’s debate, 65% of likely voters supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Carrion received the support of 4% while 1% wanted another candidate to be mayor.  Six percent were undecided.  After the debate, 65% supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota.  Three percent backed Carrion while 1% were for another candidate.  Seven percent were undecided.

“The debate season has come and gone,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, the debates this fall have done more to reinforce voters’ impressions of the candidates than to change the character of the race.”

How strongly do likely voters citywide support their choice of candidate?  61% say they strongly support their selection for mayor while 30% are somewhat committed to their choice.  Eight percent might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick, and 9% said they might vote differently.  Two percent were unsure.

65% of likely voters who support de Blasio say they will not waver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 54% of likely voters who back Lhota and say they are strongly committed to him.  Last month, 56% of de Blasio’s backers reported they strongly supported him while 49% of Lhota’s backers had a similar level of intensity.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, de Blasio — 63% — is ahead of Lhota — 21% — by 42 percentage points.  Carrion receives the support of 5% while 1% wants someone else to be elected.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Done Deal for de Blasio?

Most registered voters in New York City think, regardless of who they plan to support, de Blasio will defeat Lhota tomorrow.  83% of voters believe de Blasio will win while only 8% think Lhota will be victorious.  Nine percent are undecided.  Even an overwhelming proportion of Lhota’s backers — 81% — think de Blasio will be the city’s next mayor.

Table: Who Do You Think Will Win the Election for New York City Mayor? (NYC Registered Voters)

About Two-Thirds Perceive de Blasio Favorably… Upside Down Rating for Lhota 

64% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable opinion of de Blasio.  26% have an unfavorable one, and 10% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In October, similar proportions shared these views.  65% of registered voters thought well of de Blasio.  23% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 12%, at that time, had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Lhota, 47% have an unfavorable view of him.  32% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 43% of registered voters had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota while 32% had a favorable one.  25% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Trumps Lhota on the Issues 

About two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — think de Blasio is the candidate who is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  18%, however, say Lhota is the candidate who will improve affordability in the city.  15% are unsure.  Last month, 67% of registered voters thought de Blasio was more capable to make the city affordable.  19% had this impression of Lhota, and 14%, at that time, were unsure.

Looking at crime in the city, 48% of registered voters believe de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 32% think Lhota is better able to keep the city safe.  About one in five — 19% — is unsure.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 52% said de Blasio would make the city safer.  31% believed Lhota was better able to keep crime down, and 17% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Ideologically Speaking 

What are voters’ impressions of de Blasio’s political ideology?  A majority of registered voters — 56% — thinks his ideology is about right.  29% say he is too liberal while 4% say he is too conservative.  11% are unsure.  In October, 59% thought de Blasio’s ideology was in line.  24% reported he was too liberal while 3% said he was too conservative.  14% were unsure.

When it comes to Lhota’s political ideology, 34% say his ideology is about right.  35% believe Lhota is too conservative while 8% say Lhota is too liberal.  23% are unsure.  Last month, 35% of registered voters reported Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while only 8% believed he was too liberal.  26%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Time for Change, Say More than Six in Ten 

64% of registered voters want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 31% want him to continue Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s policies.  Six percent are unsure.  There has been little change since NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s October survey.  At that time, 66% wanted a departure from Bloomberg’s policies.  29% reported they thought the city’s current policies should be continued, and 6% were unsure.

So, how do voters think Bloomberg is doing in office?  47% say he is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 13% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one.  29% rate Bloomberg’s approval rating as fair while 20% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 45% gave Bloomberg high marks.  34% said he was doing a fair job while 18% thought Bloomberg’s job performance was subpar.  Two percent were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

The City’s Course

49% of registered voters think New York City is moving in the right direction while 42% believe it is moving in the wrong one.  Nine percent are unsure.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 46% of voters thought the city was traveling on the right road while 46% said it needed a new path.  Eight percent were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/18: McAuliffe Leads Cuccinelli by 8 Percentage Points in Virginia Governor’s Race

In the contest for Virginia governor, Democrat Terry McAuliffe receives the support of 46% of Virginia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot compared with 38% for his Republican challenger, Ken Cuccinelli.  Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis garners 9% of the vote while 1% backs another candidate.  Seven percent of Virginia likely voters are undecided.

Click Here for Complete October 18th, 2013 Virginia NBC4/NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Just when Cuccinelli needed to start closing the gap against McAuliffe, the government shutdown became a huge roadblock,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The big question is whether or not Cuccinelli can now overcome the damaged GOP brand and his own high negative rating to make the contest more competitive.”

When NBC4/NBC News/Marist last reported this question in September, McAuliffe — 43% — edged Cuccinelli — 38% — among likely voters statewide.  Sarvis had the support of 8% while 1% backed another candidate.  10%, at that time, were undecided.

Key points:

• Party ID.  A wide partisan divide exists.  Most Democrats who are likely to vote — 88% — support McAuliffe while most Republicans likely to cast a ballot are for Cuccinelli — 83%.  This is little changed from last month when 89% of likely Democratic voters supported McAuliffe, and 83% of likely Republican voters were for Cuccinelli.  Among independent voters who are likely to vote, 41% are for McAuliffe while 33% are for Cuccinelli.  15% support Sarvis.  In September, the contest among independent voters was slightly closer.  36% of independent voters were behind McAuliffe while 34% backed Cuccinelli.  15%, at that time, supported Sarvis.
• Gender.  A gender gap still exists.  McAuliffe — 52% — leads Cuccinelli — 32% — by double digits among women who are likely to vote.  However, among men who are likely to cast a ballot, Cuccinelli — 44% — edges McAuliffe — 40%.  Last month, McAuliffe — 50% — outpaced Cuccinelli — 32% — among women.  Among men, Cuccinelli — 44% — led McAuliffe — 36% — by eight percentage points.
• Intensity of Support.  60% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Virginia governor say they strongly support their choice.  32% somewhat support their candidate, and 8% might vote differently.  Only 1% is unsure.  In NBC4/NBC News/Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions held these views.  59% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Virginia governor were firmly committed to their choice while 31% were somewhat behind him.  Nine percent said they might vote differently, and 1% was unsure.  Among Cucinelli’s supporters, 67% strongly support him while 57% of McAuliffe’s backers express a similar level of commitment to him.  In September, 60% of Cuccinelli’s supporters and 59% of McAuliffe’s backers said they would not waver in their commitment to their choice of candidate.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, McAuliffe still leads Cuccinelli.  44% are for McAuliffe while 36% are for Cuccinelli.  Sarvis has the support of 10% while 1% is for another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.  In NBC4/NBC News/Marist’s previous poll, 41% of registered voters were for McAuliffe while 35% supported Cuccinelli.  Eight percent backed Sarvis, and 1% supported another candidate.  14%, at the time, were undecided.

How would the contest look without Sarvis?  Among Virginia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 52% support McAuliffe compared with 43% for Cuccinelli.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (Virginia Likely Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Table: Intensity of Support (Virginia Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup without Sarvis (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Tarnished Images? Voters Divide over McAuliffe… Cuccinelli with High Negatives 

While 40% of Virginia residents have a positive view of McAuliffe, 39% have an unfavorable impression of him.  21% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  42% think well of McAuliffe while 41% have a lesser opinion of the candidate.  17% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Last month, 38% of Virginia residents had a favorable view of McAuliffe.  32% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and a notable 30% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.  Looking at registered voters, 41% had a positive opinion of McAuliffe while 34% had an unfavorable one.  26% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate McAuliffe.

A majority of Virginia residents — 51% — has an unfavorable view of Cuccinelli.  34% have a positive opinion of him, and 15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Comparable portions of registered voters have these opinions.  53% of registered voters have a negative view of Cuccinelli while 36% have a positive one.  12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In last month’s survey, 45% of adults statewide had an unfavorable opinion of Cuccinelli while 31% had a favorable one.  23%, at that time, had either never heard of Cuccinelli or were unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters in Virginia, 47% had a lesser impression of Cuccinelli while 34% had a favorable view of him.  19% had either never heard of Cuccinelli or were unsure how to rate him.

Sarvis has become somewhat better-known to Virginians, but a majority — 56% — still has either never heard of Sarvis or is unsure how to rate him.  23% have a favorable opinion of him, and 21% have an unfavorable view of him.  Among registered voters, a similar 55% have either never heard of Sarvis or are unsure how to rate him.  23% of voters have a positive impression of the candidate while 22% have a negative one.

Last month, 66% of Virginia residents had either never heard of Sarvis or were unsure how to rate him.  20% had a favorable view of the candidate while 15% had an unfavorable impression of him.  Among registered voters, 63%, at that time, did not have a clear opinion of Sarvis.  This compares with 21% who thought well of him and 16% who had an unfavorable opinion of the candidate.

Table: McAuliffe Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Cuccinelli Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Sarvis Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Majority Places Responsibility for Shutdown on Republicans 

When it comes to who is mostly to blame for the government shutdown, a majority of Virginia adults — 53% — say the Republicans in Congress are more at fault.  This compares with 29% who put the onus on President Barack Obama.  15% think each is equally to blame while 3% are unsure.

Similar proportions of registered voters in Virginia have these views.  54% say the Republican members in Congress are to blame while 29% think President Obama is mostly responsible for the shutdown.  14% think the Republicans in Congress and the president equally share the blame while 3% are unsure.

By party, 88% of Democrats think the Republicans in Congress are mostly at fault.  This compares with 60% of Republicans who point the finger at President Obama.  17% of Republicans blame the members of their own party in Congress, and one in five Republicans — 20% — says both Obama and the Congressional GOP are to blame.

Tea Party support makes a difference among the GOP.  Among Republicans who are Tea Party supporters, nearly eight in ten — 78% — believe President Obama is to blame.  However, there is little consensus among Republicans who do not support the Tea Party.  While a plurality — 42% — places the responsibility on the president, a notable 28% blame the Republicans in Congress, and 26% fault both the president and the GOP in Congress.

Looking at independent voters, a majority — 54% — puts the onus on the GOP in Congress while 28% say President Obama is mostly to blame for the shutdown.  16% report both are equally responsible.

38% of Virginia registered voters say the government shutdown will have a major impact on their vote for governor while 21% think it will have a minor one.  39% say the shutdown is not an issue at all, and 2% are unsure.

By party, a plurality of Democrats — 44% — says the government shutdown will be a major issue in determining their gubernatorial vote while half of Republicans — 50% — report the shutdown is not an issue at all when it comes to casting their ballot.   But, Tea Party support again matters for Republicans.  A majority of Republicans who support the Tea Party — 55% — says the government shutdown is no issue at all when it comes to their vote.  This compares with a majority of Republicans who are not Tea Party supporters — 56% — who think the shutdown will be either a major or a minor issue when deciding for whom to vote.

Among independent voters, 40% think the shutdown is not an issue when it comes to picking their candidate.  This compares with 37% who say the shutdown is a major issue and 21% who believe it is a minor one.

How many Virginians have been affected by the federal government shutdown?  While 60% have not been impacted, a notable 39% say they or a member of their family have experienced changes to their employment status, services, or benefits.  One percent is unsure.  Identical proportions of registered voters in Virginia say the same.  60% have not been affected by the shutdown while 39% have felt the effects.  One percent of registered voters in Virginia is unsure.

Table: Who is More to Blame for the Government Shutdown (Virginia Adults)

Table: Whether the Government Shutdown is an Issue in Deciding Vote for Governor (Virginia Adults)

Table: Personal Impact of the Federal Government Shutdown (Virginia Adults) 

Damaged Brand?

The Republican Party is viewed negatively by many residents in Virginia.  61% of adults in the state have an unfavorable impression of the party.  32% have a favorable one, and 6% have either never heard of it or are unsure how to rate the Republican Party.  Among registered voters in the state, 62% have a negative view of the GOP while 32% have a positive one.  Five percent have either never heard of the GOP or are unsure how to rate it.

49% of Virginians view the Democratic Party unfavorably while 45% perceive it favorably.  Six percent have either never heard of the Democratic Party or are unsure how to rate it.  Looking at registered voters, 50% have a negative view of the Democratic Party while 45% have a positive one.  Five percent have either never heard of the party or are unsure how to rate it.

Table: Favorability of the Republican Party (Virginia Adults)

Table: Favorability of the Democratic Party (Virginia Adults)

Northam Edges Jackson in Contest for Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Ralph Northam receives the support of 48% of Virginia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  42% support Republican E.W. Jackson, and 1% mentions another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.

When NBC4/NBC News/Marist reported this question last month, likely voters in Virginia divided.  44% supported Northam while 41% backed Jackson.  One percent was for another candidate, and 13% were undecided.

How strongly are likely voters committed to their choice of candidate for lieutenant governor?  Half of likely voters with a candidate preference — 50% — strongly support their choice.  38% are somewhat committed to their pick, and 12% might vote differently.  Only 1% is unsure.

In September, 46% of likely voters with a candidate preference for lieutenant governor said they were firmly committed to their choice.  41% were somewhat behind their pick, and 11% said they might change their minds before Election Day.  Two percent, at that time, were unsure.

Northam also has a six percentage point advantage among registered voters in Virginia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  47% support Northam while 41% are behind Jackson.  One percent supports another candidate, and 10% are undecided.  Last month, Northam had the backing of 42% of registered voters while 40% were for Jackson.  One percent supported another candidate, and 16% were undecided.

Table: 2013 Lieutenant Governor Tossup (Virginia Likely Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Table: Intensity of Support for Virginia Lieutenant Governor (Virginia Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Lieutenant Governor Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

McDonnell Approval Rating Status Quo

A majority of adults in Virginia — 53% — approves of the job Governor Bob McDonnell is doing in office.  31% disapprove, and 16% are unsure.  Among registered voters in Virginia, 55% give McDonnell high marks.  32% say his performance has fallen short, and 13% are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since last month.  At that time, 51% of adults thought well of McDonnell’s job performance.  33% disapproved, and 16% were unsure.  A majority of registered voters in that previous survey — 55% — approved of McDonnell’s job performance.  33% disapproved, and 12% were unsure.

Looking at McDonnell’s favorability, 48% of adults statewide have a positive impression of McDonnell while 35% have an unfavorable one.  17% have either never heard of McDonnell or are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters, 49% view McDonnell favorably.  37% perceive him unfavorably, and 14% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In September, 49% of Virginia residents thought well of McDonnell while 32% did not.  19%, at that time, were unsure.   Among registered voters, 52% had a positive opinion of McDonnell while 33% had an unfavorable impression of the governor.  15%, then, had either never heard of McDonnell or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Favorability (Virginia Adults)

A State on Track?

While a majority of Virginians think the state is headed in the right direction, there has been a decline in the proportion of residents who have this opinion.  52% of adults statewide say the state is moving in the right direction while 42% think it is headed in the wrong one.  Six percent are unsure.  Registered voters reflect the views of residents overall.  53% of voters think Virginia is moving on the proper path while 41% say the state needs an alternate route.  Six percent are unsure.

In September’s poll, nearly six in ten adults — 58% — reported the state was on course.  This compares with 36% who said Virginia had fallen off the track.  Six percent, then, were unsure.  Among registered voters, 59% thought Virginia was on the correct path while 36% said it needed to be redirected.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Direction of Virginia (Virginia Adults)

Majority Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance

52% of adults in Virginia disapprove of how President Obama is doing his job while 45% approve.  Four percent are unsure.  Among registered voters statewide, 53% disapprove of Mr. Obama’s job performance while 45% approve.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 48% of adults in Virginia gave the president high marks while 46% said his performance was not satisfactory.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.  Looking at registered voters, 48% in September praised the president’s job performance while 47% thought it was lacking.  Five percent were unsure.

Is President Obama viewed favorably in Virginia?  He receives mixed reviews.  49% of residents have a positive opinion of the president while 48% have an unfavorable view of him.  Three percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  The opinions of Virginia registered voters mirror those of residents, overall.  49% have a favorable view of President Obama while 49% have an unfavorable one.  Two percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate the president.

When NBC4/NBC News/Marist last reported this question, 52% of Virginians thought well of Mr. Obama while 45% had a negative impression of him.  Four percent had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.  At that time, 52% of registered voters perceived the president positively.  45% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 3% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Obama Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Obama Favorability (Virginia Adults)

From Politics to Football…More than Seven in Ten Want Redskins to Keep Name 

There has been much debate about whether or not the Washington Redskins should change their name.  While more than one in five adults in Virginia — 21% — think the team should find a different name because “Redskins” is offensive to Native Americans, 73% believe the name should remain because it is a part of the team’s tradition.  Six percent are unsure.  Fans of the team agree.  One in five — 20% — says the name should be changed while 78% want it to remain.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Whether or Not the Name of the Washington Redskins Should be Changed (Virginia Adults)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

10/11: De Blasio Leads Lhota by 44 Percentage Points in NYC Mayor’s Race

With just a little more than three weeks until Election Day, Democrat Bill de Blasio outpaces his Republican opponent, Joe Lhota, 67% to 23%, among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot.  Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has the support of 2%.  One percent supports another candidate while 7% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“This is a very lopsided contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Joe Lhota hasn’t gotten any traction to offset the Democratic registration advantage in the city.”

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, de Blasio — 65% — was ahead of Lhota — 22% — by 43 percentage points among likely voters.  Carrion received the support of 3%.  One percent backed another candidate, and 9%, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

• Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 82% support de Blasio while 13% are for Lhota.  One percent supports Carrion.  Last month, 77% of Democrats backed de Blasio.  13% were behind Lhota, and 1% supported Carrion.
• Looking at likely Republican voters, 69% back Lhota.  16% are for de Blasio, and 1% supports Carrion.  In September’s survey, 63% of Republicans were for Lhota compared with 25% for de Blasio.  Five percent were behind Carrion.
• Among non-enrolled voters, de Blasio has the backing of 58%.  Lhota garners 21%, and Carrion has 7%.  In that previous survey, half of non-enrolled voters likely to cast a ballot — 50% — supported de Blasio compared with 24% for Lhota and 9% for Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio has a wide lead over Lhota.  Among white voters who are likely to participate on Election Day, 57% support de Blasio while 33% are for Lhota.  In September, 50% of whites backed de Blasio while Lhota had the support of 37%.  Among African American voters, de Blasio has 89% to 4% for Lhota.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 86% of African American voters likely to cast a ballot supported de Blasio compared with 3% for Lhota.  De Blasio has a 62 percentage point advantage over Lhota among Latinos who are likely to vote.  Here, de Blasio receives 76% compared with 14% for Lhota.  Last month, 74% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day were for de Blasio while 11% backed Lhota.

How strongly do likely voters with a candidate preference support their choice for mayor?  54% strongly support their pick while 36% are somewhat behind their candidate.  Nine percent might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  33% were somewhat behind their pick while 13% said they might change their minds before Election Day.  One percent, at that time, was unsure.

Among likely voters who are for de Blasio, 56% strongly support him.  This compares with 49% of Lhota’s backers who are firmly committed to him.  This is little changed from September when 58% of de Blasio’s backers said they strongly supported him while 47% of Lhota’s supporters expressed the same level of support for him.

Looking at registered voters, de Blasio — 66% — outdistances Lhota — 20% — by 46 percentage points.  Carrion has the support of 3% while 2% back another candidate.  Nine percent are undecided.  Last month, 63% of registered voters backed de Blasio while 20% supported Lhota.  Four percent were for Carrion, and 2% backed another candidate.  12% were undecided.

What does the contest for mayor look like when all fifteen candidates on the ballot are taken into account?  Little changes.  Among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 64% support de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion.  Jack Hidary and Michael Greys each receives 1%.  Erick Salgado, Anthony Gronowicz, James McMillian, Michael Sanchez, Randy Credico, Dan Fein, Joseph Melaragno, Sam Sloan, Michael Dilger, and Carl Person each garners less than one percent of the vote.  One percent mentions another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor Including All Fifteen Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

65% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio while 23% have an unfavorable one.  12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In September, 65% thought highly of de Blasio while 19% had an unfavorable view of him.  16%, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

It’s a different story when it comes to Lhota.  43% have an unfavorable impression of the candidate.  32% have a positive view of him, and a notable 25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  There has been little change on this question since September when 41% had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota, and 29% said they had a favorable one.  Three in ten — 30% — had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Tops Lhota on Issues and Qualities

How do de Blasio and Lhota stack up when it comes to campaign issues and candidate qualities?  Among registered voters in New York City:

• Two out of three — 67% — think de Blasio is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family.  19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure.  In September, 63% had this impression of de Blasio while 20% said Lhota could make New York City more affordable.  17% were unsure.
• When it comes to improving the city’s public schools, about two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — say de Blasio is the better candidate for the job.  This compares with 19% who think Lhota is better able to improve education in the city.  16% are unsure.  There has been little change on this question.  Last month, 65% reported de Blasio was the candidate with the skills to improve education while 18% had this view of Lhota.  18%, at that time, were unsure.
• 63% of registered voters think de Blasio can better unite the city.  This compares with 21% who think Lhota can bring New Yorkers together.  16% are unsure.  In that previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 67% of voters considered de Blasio to be the candidate who could better unite the city.  19% thought Lhota was the candidate to do so, and 14% were unsure.
• There has also been little change on whether de Blasio or Lhota has the experience to manage the city.  53% believe de Blasio is the more seasoned candidate while 29% think Lhota has the experience to take the city’s helm.  18% are unsure.  Last month, a majority — 54% — reported de Blasio had the experience to be mayor compared with 31% who had this impression of Lhota.  15%, then, were unsure.
• A majority of voters — 52% — say de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 31% say Lhota is more likely to do so.  17% are unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who say de Blasio will improve safety in the city.  Last month, 44% said de Blasio was more likely to reduce crime.  This compares with 35% who had this opinion of Lhota.  21%, at the time, were unsure.
• When it comes to the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances, 49% think de Blasio is more capable.  This compares with 33% who say Lhota has the advantage on this issue.  19% are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 45% thought de Blasio was the better candidate to deal with the city’s finances while 35% had this opinion of Lhota.  20% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

The Ideologies of the Candidates 

Among registered voters in New York City, 59% report de Blasio’s political ideology is in step.  This compares with 24% who think he is too liberal and 3% who believe he is too conservative.  14% are unsure.

In September, 59% of registered voters said de Blasio’s ideology was about right.  22% reported he was too liberal while 5% thought he was too conservative.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Among registered voters, 35% say Lhota’s political ideology is in line.  31% report he is too conservative, and 8% believe he is too liberal.  26% are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 32% of voters thought Lhota’s ideology was about right.  31% said he was too conservative while 7% reported he was too liberal.  29%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio’s Past Experiences in Cuba and Nicaragua Matter Little

Information surfaced that de Blasio went to Cuba on his honeymoon and supported the Sandinistas in Nicaragua.  Has this knowledge impacted voters’ impressions of de Blasio?  More than seven in ten registered voters — 72% — say it makes no difference to them.  16% report it makes them less likely to vote for de Blasio while 8% think it makes them more likely to vote for him.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of de Blasio’s Time in Cuba and Nicaragua on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Divide about Lhota and National GOP

On most issues, 40% of registered voters think Lhota is not independent from the national Republican Party.  36% believe he is independent from the GOP, and 24% are unsure where he stands on most issues.

Among those who believe Lhota’s stance on the issues is tied to the national Republican Party, 39% are less likely to support him, and 54% say it doesn’t matter.  Looking at those who say Lhota is independent from the national GOP platform, 42% would be more likely to vote for him, and 51% say it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Impact of Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing Does Little to Help Lhota’s Chances

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani stumped for Lhota during the primary, but his nod does not bolster Lhota’s chances in the general election.  While 31% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to support Lhota, 47% report it makes them less likely to do so.  18% think it makes no difference to their vote, and 3% are unsure.

Last month, 29% reported Giuliani’s support made them more likely to vote for Lhota.  A majority — 51% — said it made them less likely to vote for him, and 15% thought Giuliani’s endorsement made no difference to their vote.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

A partisan divide exists.  Most Republicans — 72% — say a Giuliani endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota while 8% report it makes them less inclined to support him.  Among Democrats, 57% think Giuliani’s backing makes them less likely to cast their ballot for Lhota.  22% disagree and believe it will make them more likely to do so.  There is little consensus among non-enrolled voters citywide.  35% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota, and 42% report it makes them less likely to vote for him.  20% believe it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Departure from Bloomberg Era Policies Desired… Bloomberg Rating Steady 

About two-thirds of registered voters in New York City — 66% — want to move the city in a different direction from the Bloomberg years.  29%, however, want the next mayor to continue the policies of Mayor Bloomberg.  Six percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 68% wanted the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 25% wanted him to stay the course.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

When it comes to the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office, 45% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who say the mayor is doing an excellent job and 33% who report he is doing a good one.  34% rate his performance as fair while 18% think he is performing poorly.  Two percent are unsure.

Last month, a similar 42% gave Bloomberg kudos.  33% gave him average grades while 22% thought he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)  

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track?

When it comes to the direction of New York City, 46% of registered voters believe it is moving in the right direction, and 46% think it is traveling in the wrong one.  Eight percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, voters also divided.  46% reported the city was on the right road, and 43% said it was on the wrong track.  11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

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