5/8: Nearly Seven in Ten New Jersey Voters Applaud Christie’s Job Performance, Re-election Prospects Bright, But Not 2016

Six months after Hurricane Sandy, New Jersey residents are optimistic about their governor and the state in general.  Nearly seven in ten — 68% — approve of how Governor Chris Christie is doing his job.  24% disapprove, and 8% are unsure.  Registered voters share these views.  69% of registered voters give Christie a thumbs up as governor.  24% of voters disapprove, and 7% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete May 8, 2013 New Jersey NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“The key elements are in place for Governor Christie’s re-election…his high approval ratings, voters’ upbeat mood about the direction of the state, and, of course, his efforts following Hurricane Sandy,” says Dr. Lee M.  Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “This makes it extremely difficult for his Democratic challenger.”

The governor is lauded by residents for his handling of New Jersey’s recovery from Hurricane Sandy.  Eight in ten — 81% — approve of Christie’s hurricane recovery efforts.  13% disapprove and 5% are unsure.  56% also approve of how Christie is handling the state’s budget, and 33% disapprove.  11% are unsure.

Table: Governor Chris Christie Approval Rating (New Jersey Adults)

Table: Governor Chris Christie Hurricane Sandy Recovery Approval Rating (New Jersey Adults)

Table: Governor Chris Christie Budget Approval Rating (New Jersey Adults)

 

Many New Jersey residents view the state as on track.  62% believe it is moving in the right direction.  31% disagree and say New Jersey is on the wrong path.  Seven percent are unsure.

Table: Direction of New Jersey (New Jersey Adults)

Christie Leads Buono by More than Two-to-One in Governor’s Race

In the contest for New Jersey governor, Republican incumbent Chris Christie — 60% — outpaces Democratic State Senator Barbara Buono — 28% — by 32 percentage points among registered voters.  One percent supports another candidate, and 10% are undecided.  Among the probable electorate, including voters who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Christie has 62% to 28% for Buono.  One percent supports another candidate and 9% are undecided.

Key points:

• Party ID.  Most Republicans — 94% — support Christie while only a slim majority of Democrats — 51% — back Buono.  Among independent voters in New Jersey, 64% are for Christie while 22% are behind Buono.
• Intensity of Support.  Among registered voters in New Jersey who have a candidate preference, 56% strongly support their choice of candidate.  30% are somewhat committed to their pick while 11% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.  Among Christie’s supporters, 57% are firmly behind him while 55% of Buono’s backers are strongly in her camp.
• Gender.  Among men, 66% are for Christie while 24% support Buono.  A majority of women — 56% — support Christie compared with 32% for Buono.   
• Age.  Christie is ahead of Buono among all age groups.  Christie — 63% — leads Buono — 26% — among voters 60 and older.  Christie — 58% — also outdistances Buono — 30% — among those 45 to 59.  Looking at those 30 to 44, 60% support Christie compared with 29% for Buono.  63% of voters under the age of 30 are for Christie while 29% are behind Buono.
• Past Vote. Christie also receives notable support from those who voted for President Obama last fall.  42% of Obama backers support Christie while 46% support Democrat Buono.  32% of those who voted for Jon Corzine, the Democratic candidate in the 2009 gubernatorial race, now support Christie. 55% of Corzine voters plan to vote for Buono.

More than six in ten registered voters — 61% — are satisfied with the candidates running for governor in November while 28% are not satisfied with the candidates from which they have to choose.  11% are unsure.

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (New Jersey Registered Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (New Jersey Registered Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: Satisfied with Candidates Running for Governor (New Jersey Registered Voters)

Two-Thirds Have a Favorable Opinion of Christie…Buono Largely Unknown

Governor Chris Christie is perceived well by 67% of New Jersey residents.  28% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 5% are unsure.  Registered voters have similar impressions.  68% of voters have a favorable view of the governor, 27% have an unfavorable one, and 4% are unsure.

However, Buono is little-known in the state.  Only 23% have a favorable view of Buono while 18% have an unfavorable impression of her.  Most residents statewide — 59% — have either never heard of Buono or are unsure how to rate her.  Buono is not much better known among registered voters.  24% of voters have a favorable impression of her, 18% have an unfavorable view, but 57% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.

Table: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Favorability (New Jersey Adults)

Table: New Jersey State Senator Barbara Buono Favorability (New Jersey Adults)

Majority Says Christie Should Not Run for President in 2016

Despite his popularity, when talk turns to a possible presidential run, 55% of New Jersey registered voters do not want Christie to throw his hat into the ring.  34% believe Christie should run for president, and 12% are unsure.

By Party:

• Among Republicans, 50% would like to see Christie run for President.  34% do not want him in the race, and 15% are unsure.
• 26% of Democrats want Christie in the presidential contest, but 64% do not.  Nine percent are unsure.
• 32% of independents want the governor in the 2016 race.  56% do not, and 12% are unsure.
• Among Tea Party supporters, 34% support a Christie 2016 run, and 55% are opposed to it. 11% are unsure.

In fact, in a hypothetical 2016 presidential match-up with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Christie trails Clinton, 41% to 52% among New Jersey voters.  Six percent are undecided.

Christie bests Vice President Joe Biden for president, 51% to 40%, among registered voters in the state.  Eight percent are undecided.

Table: Should Governor Chris Christie Run for President? (New Jersey Registered Voters)

Table: Christie vs. Clinton 2016 Toss-Up (New Jersey Registered Voters)

Table: Christie vs. Biden 2016 Toss-Up (New Jersey Registered Voters)

45% Approve of Job Senator Menendez is Doing in Office, 38% Believe He Acted Unethically in Donor Dust-Up

A plurality of residents — 45% — approve of the job Senator Robert Menendez is doing in office. 31% disapprove, and 24% are unsure. Registered voters have similar opinions.  46% of voters in the state rate Senator Menendez positively, 32% rate him negatively, and 22% are unsure.  Nearly two-thirds of Democrats — 65% — give the senator high marks, whereas 25% of Republicans and 39% of Independents say the same.

Opinion is divided about the investigation of Senator Menendez’ ties to a wealthy donor.  14% of New Jersey residents believe he did nothing wrong while 38% think he did something unethical but not illegal.  16% say he did something illegal. One-third — 33% — are unsure.

Table: Senator Robert Menendez Approval Rating (New Jersey Adults)

Table: Senator Menendez Ties to Wealthy Donor (New Jersey Adults)

Majority of New Jersey Residents Approve of Obama, Democratic Party, But GOP Doesn’t Fare So Well

President Obama has the approval of 57% of New Jersey residents.  38% disapprove of the job the president is doing in office, and 6% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  56% of voters approve of the president’s job performance, 38% disapprove, and 5% are unsure.  Among Democrats in the state, 88% give Obama a thumbs up, and 8% disapprove.  78% of Republicans, however, disapprove of the President’s job, and 16% approve.  Independents divide — 48% approve and 45% disapprove.  61% of residents view Obama favorably while 36% do not.  Three percent are unsure.  Registered voters agree.  60% approve of the job the president is doing, 37% disapprove, and 3% are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Approval Rating (New Jersey Adults)

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability Rating (New Jersey Adults)

The Democratic Party is viewed favorably by a slim majority — 51% — of New Jersey residents.  42% have an unfavorable impression of the party, and 7% are unsure.  Registered voters parallel these impressions.  50% of voters have a positive view, 43% have a negative one, and 6% are unsure.

The Republican Party is not highly regarded.  33% have a favorable view of the party while 58% of New Jersey residents view the party unfavorably.  Nine percent are unsure.  There is little difference in opinion among registered voters.  34% of voters have a favorable opinion, 59% do not, and 7% are unsure.

Table: Democratic Party Favorability Rating (New Jersey Adults)

Table: Republican Party Favorability Rating (New Jersey Adults)

Sequester Cuts Not Affecting Most, Two-Thirds Want Stricter Gun Laws

Nearly two-thirds of New Jersey residents — 65% — report they are not experiencing much impact personally from the federal spending cuts triggered by the sequester on March 1^st.  Seven percent say they have been affected a great deal, and 8% have been affected quite a bit.  16% have only been affected some, and 4% are unsure.

A plurality of New Jersey residents — 42% — say the sequester cuts will hurt the economy.  29% believe the cuts will have no impact, and 18% think the cuts will be good for the economy.  11% are unsure.

Table: Personal Impact of Automatic Spending Cuts (New Jersey Adults)

Table: Impact of Automatic Spending Cuts on the Economy (New Jersey Adults)

Most New Jersey residents think laws covering the sale of firearms should be stricter.  67% hold this view while 24% say current gun laws are sufficient.  Six percent say the laws should be less strict, and 3% are unsure.  Registered voters share these views.  Among gun owners, a plurality — 48% — believes gun laws should be kept as they are now, and 38% want stricter laws.  12% of gun owners think the laws should be less strict, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Gun Law Covering the Sale of Firearms (New Jersey Adults)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

5/8: Tight Race for Governor in Virginia

In the race for governor in Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe — 43% — and Republican Ken Cuccinelli — 41% — are in a close contest among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  One percent are for another candidate, and 16% are undecided.

Among the probable electorate, including voters who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Cuccinelli has 45% to 42% for McAulifffe.  13% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete May 8th, 2013 Virginia NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“The contest is close, the candidates are not well defined, and they still need to connect with voters,” says Dr. Lee M.  Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, keep an eye on those who say they are going to vote.”

Key points:

• Party ID.  There is a wide partisan divide.  91% of registered Democrats support McAuliffe while 91% of registered Republicans back Cuccinelli.  Among independent voters statewide, Cuccinelli — 36% — and McAuliffe — 36% — are locked in a dead heat.  However, a notable proportion of independent voters — 27% — are undecided.
• Intensity of Support.  50% of registered voters in Virginia who prefer a candidate are strongly committed to their choice.  33% are somewhat behind their pick while 13% might vote differently.  Four percent are unsure.  Looking at the candidates’ supporters, 53% of those behind Cuccinelli strongly support him.  This compares with only 47% of McAuliffe’s backers who express a similar degree of support.
• Gender.  There is a wide gender gap.  McAuliffe — 50% — leads Cuccinelli — 34% — among women.  14% of women voters are undecided.  However, Cuccinelli — 49% — is ahead of McAuliffe — 34% — among men.  17% are undecided.
• Age.  McAuliffe — 48% — has the advantage over Cuccinelli — 35% — among registered voters under the age of 30.  Among those 30 to 44 years old, Cuccinelli receives 44% to 37% for McAuliffe.  Looking at those 45 to 59 McAuliffe has 45% to 41% for Cuccinelli.  Among Virginia registered voters 60 and older, McAuliffe — 43% — and Cuccinelli — 42% — are neck and neck.

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (Virginia Registered Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Slim Majority Satisfied with the Field

52% of Virginia registered voters are satisfied with the candidates from which they have to choose for governor this year.  One-quarter — 25% — are not satisfied, and 23% are unsure.  About six in ten Democrats — 58% — and Republicans — 61% — are satisfied while only a plurality of independents — 42% — feel the same.

Table: Satisfied with Gubernatorial Candidates (Virginia Registered Voters)

More Information Needed about Candidates, Say Many

Looking at the favorability ratings of the candidates, 31% of residents have a positive impression of McAuliffe.  23% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and a plurality — 46% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Registered voters have similar impressions.  32% of voters have a positive impression, 24% have a negative one, and 44% have either never heard of McAuliffe or are unsure how to rate him.

While Cuccinelli is better known among Virginians, he also needs to improve his standing.  40% have a favorable view of Cuccinelli while 26% have an unfavorable one.  34% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these impressions.  42% of voters have a favorable view of Cuccinelli, 27% have an unfavorable one, and 32% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: McAuliffe Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Cuccinelli Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Impressions of the Candidates

How do Virginia residents compare the gubernatorial candidates?

• 27% of adults think McAuliffe is too liberal.  Five percent say he is too conservative, and 32% think he is about right.  Almost four in ten though — 36% — are unsure where he stands politically.
• As for Cuccinelli, 6% of state residents see him as too liberal while 25% think he’s too conservative.  38% say he is about right while more than three in ten — 31% — are unsure how to assess him ideologically.
• When asked which candidate better understands the problems of people like themselves, 33% give Cuccinelli the nod and 29% pick McAuliffe.  31% are unsure.
• Who do Virginians trust more to do what’s best for the state?  37% choose Cuccinelli while 31% say McAuliffe.  26% are unsure.
• When it comes to social issues such as abortion, 31% of adults say Cuccinelli is closer to their position, and 30% say the same about McAuliffe.  34% are unsure.
• Residents divide about which candidate cares more about the middle class.  30% select Cuccinelli.  McAuliffe is the choice of 29%, and 34% are unsure.
• Which candidate do residents say shares their values?  Cuccinelli — 34% — has the advantage over McAuliffe — 28%.  31%, however, are unsure.

Table: McAuliffe Ideology (Virginia Adults)

Table: Cuccinelli Ideology (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate that Better Understands Problems (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate Trust More to Do What’s Best for Virginia (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate that is Closer on Social Issues (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate that Cares More About the Middle Class (Virginia Adults)

Table: Candidate that Shares Values (Virginia Adults)

Cuccinelli’s Performance as Attorney General

How do Virginia residents think Cuccinelli is doing as the state’s Attorney General?  49% approve while 23% disapprove.  28% are unsure.  Among registered voters, a majority — 51% — approve, 24% disapprove, and 25% are unsure.

By party, 74% of Republicans approve of the job Cuccinelli is doing in office, and only 6% disapprove.  49% of independent voters have a positive impression of the job Cuccinelli is doing as Attorney General, and 25% have a negative one.  Among Democrats, a plurality — 41% — disapprove while 32% approve.

Table: Cuccinelli Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Six in Ten Approve of McDonnell’s Job Performance

60% of Virginia adults approve of the job Governor Bob McDonnell is doing in office.  22% disapprove, and 18% are unsure.  Registered voters have similar views.  61% of registered voters give McDonnell a thumbs up.  24% of voters disapprove, and 15% are unsure.

When the NBC News/Marist Poll last reported this question in March 2012, 51% of registered voters in Virginia approved of the job he was doing in office.  30% disapproved, and 19% were unsure.

58% of Virginia adults currently have a favorable impression of McDonnell.  23% have an unfavorable one, and 19% are unsure.  Registered voters parallel these views.  60% of voters have a positive opinion of the governor, 24% have a negative one, and 16% are unsure.

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Virginians Wouldn’t Mind Another Term for Governor McDonnell, But Say “No” to 2016 Prez Run

If Bob McDonnell was not limited to one term as governor, he would be the favorite for re-election against Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe.  In a hypothetical matchup, Governor McDonnell receives the support of 51% to 36% for McAuliffe among all registered voters.  One percent chooses another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

McDonnell’s gubernatorial support among voters in Virginia does not carry over to a bid for president.  58% of voters statewide do not want McDonnell to run for president in 2016.    24% would like to see him make a run, and 18% are unsure.  Democrats — 73% — and independents — 59% — do not support a McDonnell presidential run.  Republicans divide.  41% of registered Republican voters would like to see him on the presidential campaign trail while 43% would not.

How does McDonnell fare against Democrats Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden?  In a hypothetical matchup, Hillary Clinton — 52% — has the advantage over Bob McDonnell — 41% — among registered voters in the state.  Seven percent are undecided.

In fact, 60% of Virginia residents have a favorable impression of Hillary Clinton.  33% have an unfavorable view, and 7% are unsure.  There is little difference of opinion among registered voters.  60% of voters have a positive impression of Hillary Clinton, 34% have a negative one, and 6% are unsure.

In contrast, when matched against Joe Biden, McDonnell receives the support of 49% to Biden’s 42%.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: Hypothetical 2013 Toss Up McAuliffe/McDonnell (Virginia Registered Voters)

Table: Want Bob McDonnell to Run for President in 2016? (Virginia Registered Voters)

Table: Hypothetical 2016 Toss Up Clinton/McDonnell (Virginia Registered Voters)

Table: Hillary Clinton Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Hypothetical 2016 Toss Up Biden/McDonnell (Virginia Registered Voters)

Six in Ten Optimistic About the Direction of the State

60% of Virginia residents think the state is moving in the right direction.  33%, however, believe it needs a new course.  Seven percent are unsure.  Registered voters share similar views.  61% of registered voters think Virginia is on the correct course, and 32% say the state is headed in the wrong direction.  Seven percent are unsure.

Table: Direction of Virginia (Virginia Adults)

Majority Approve of Obama’s Performance and Like Him, Too; Political Parties Not as Popular

A slim majority of Virginia residents — 51% — approve of the job the president is doing in office.  45% disapprove, and 4% are unsure.  Registered voters reflect the views of adults.

Similarly, 53% of residents have a favorable impression of the president while 43% have an unfavorable impression of him.  Three percent are unsure.  Registered voters agree.  54% have a favorable view of the president, 44% have an unfavorable opinion, and 3% are unsure.

The Democratic and Republican parties do not fare as well.  44% of Virginians have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party.  45% give the party a thumbs down. 11% are unsure.  The opinions of registered voters differ little from residents.  44% have a positive view of the Democratic Party, 46% have a negative one, and 10% are unsure.

As for the GOP, only 36% of residents have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party.   A majority of Virginia residents — 52% — have an unfavorable view.  12% are unsure.  Registered voters concur.  37% have a positive view of the Republican Party, 53% have a negative impression, and 11% are unsure.

Table: Obama Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Obama Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Democratic Party Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Republican Party Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Stricter Gun Laws Say Majority

55% of Virginia residents think laws covering the sale of firearms should be stricter than they are now.  Six percent say they should be less strict while 36% think they should be kept as they are.  Three percent are unsure.

Gun owners feel differently.  Nearly six in ten — 57% — want gun laws to remain as they are.  30% of gun owners think laws covering the sale of firearms should be stricter, and 11% would prefer these laws be less strict.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Gun Law Covering the Sale of Firearms (Virginia Adults)

Across-the-Board Spending Cuts No Personal Impact for Majority, But Hurt Economy

Although a majority — 54% — of Virginia residents say the across-the-board automatic spending cuts that went into effect on March 1^st have not had an impact on them or their family, personally, 43% say they have felt at least some impact from the cuts.  This includes 12% who say the cuts have impacted them a great deal, 10% who say quite a bit, and 21% who report some impact.  Three percent are unsure.

Almost half — 49% — think these cuts will mostly hurt the economy.  18% think the across-the-board cuts will help the economy, and 26% think they will have no impact.  Eight percent are unsure.

Table: Personal Impact of Automatic Spending Cuts (Virginia Adults)

Table: Impact of Automatic Spending Cuts on the Economy (Virginia Adults)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

4/24: Majority View New York Economy as Steady State, Most Believe Cuomo Inherited Economic Conditions

A slim majority of New York State registered voters — 51% — thinks the state’s economy is staying about the same, but nearly three in ten — 29% — say it is getting worse.  21% think the economy is improving, a slight uptick from about two months ago.

Click Here for Complete April 24, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll NYS Release and Tables

“Although New Yorkers still see a sluggish state economy, they don’t think Governor Cuomo is to blame,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “By more than four to one, voters believe the economic condition of the state is something the governor inherited not the result of his policies.  In fact, a majority think the state is headed in the right direction.”

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in early March, a majority — 53% — perceived the economy as status quo.  29% thought it was getting worse while 18% said it was getting better.

Voters believe the current economic conditions in New York are something that Governor Cuomo inherited and not a result of his own policies.  74% of registered voters statewide agree the state’s economic difficulties existed when Governor Cuomo assumed office, and only 17% believe the conditions are a result of his policies.  Nine percent are unsure.

The view that Cuomo inherited the economic conditions of the state extends across political party lines.  77% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans, and 75% of non-enrolled voters share this opinion.

A majority of voters — 53% — believes the state is moving in the right direction.  41% think it is moving in the wrong one, and 6% are unsure.  Nearly two months ago, 51% of registered voters statewide said the state was moving in the right direction, and 44% said it was going in the wrong one.  Four percent were unsure at that time.

Do New York voters think the Empire State is still in a recession?  Almost six in ten — 58% — do while 39% do not.  Three percent are unsure.

There has been a slight decrease in the proportion of voters who say the state is in a recession.  In March, 61% thought New York was in a recession while 35% did not characterize the state in this way.  Four percent, at that time, were unsure.  This is the lowest proportion of voters who believe the state’s economy is in a recession since before the spring of 2008.

Table: New York State Economy

Table: New York State Economy Over Time

Table: New York State Economic Conditions Inherited or Result of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Policies

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS Over Time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table: NYS in a Recession?

Table: NYS in a Recession Over Time

 

Cuomo Approval Rating Holds Steady

A majority of registered voters in New York State — 54% — approve of the job Governor Cuomo is doing in office.  This includes 12% who think he is doing an excellent job and 42% who believe Cuomo is doing a good job as governor.  Another 27% give Mr. Cuomo a fair rating and 14% give him a poor one.  Five percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, in early March, 12% of registered voters said Cuomo was doing an excellent job, and 44% said he was doing a good one.  At that time, 27% rated his job as fair, 13% thought his performance was poor, and 5% were unsure.

By region:

• Governor Cuomo’s approval rating is steady among upstate registered voters. Currently 48% approve of his job in office.  49% approved in March.
• His approval rating is also little changed in New York City.  58% currently approve of his job performance, and 60% of registered voters reported the same in March.
• In the city’s suburbs, 59% approve.  In March, 60% of registered voters approved of the job he was doing in office.

 By party:

• Governor Cuomo fails to impress the majority of Republicans.  37% currently rate his job performance as excellent or good, down from 46% in March.
• However, he is steady with non-enrolled voters.  46% give him high marks, the same proportion that did almost two months ago.
• Mr. Cuomo’s approval is 66% among registered Democrats, similar to 67% in March.

 New Yorkers have consistently expressed favorable views of Governor Cuomo.  Almost two-thirds of registered voters in New York State — 65% — have a positive opinion of the governor.  27% view him negatively, and 8% are unsure.

The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll reported similar numbers in early March.  At that time 66% viewed Governor Cuomo favorably, 25% viewed him negatively, and 9% were unsure.

Among Democrats, this rating is steady.  There has been some shifting among Republicans and non-enrolled voters.

By Party:

• 79% of Democrats view Governor Cuomo favorably, while 77% did so in March.
• Among non-enrolled voters, the governor’s favorability rating has risen from 55% in March to 62% now.
• Cuomo’s favorability among Republicans continues to slide.  Just under half of Republican voters statewide — 46% — view him favorably, whereas 60% did in March.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Majority Approve of Cuomo’s Handling of the Budget

 54% of registered voters in New York State approve of how the governor is handling the state budget.  34% disapprove, and 12% are unsure.  These numbers are mostly unchanged since March when 55% of voters approved of Governor Cuomo’s budget handling, 36% disapproved, and 9% were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Handling of the New York State Budget

Governor Cuomo’s Re-election Prospects

If Governor Cuomo runs for re-election in 2014, right now 47% of registered voters would cast their ballot for him.  25% think they would vote against the incumbent governor, and 15% say it depends on who runs against him.  13% are unsure.

“Should the governor seek re-election, he starts with a base of support of nearly half the electorate,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “That makes for an uphill fight for anyone looking to replace him next year.”

The governor’s support is strongest in New York City where a majority — 57% — would vote to re-elect him.  About half of voters in the city’s suburbs — 51% — would cast their ballot to give Governor Cuomo a second term.  The governor’s support is weakest upstate. There, 39% of voters say they are ready to re-elect the governor while 33% say they would vote against him.

Table: Re-elect Governor Andrew Cuomo in 2014

 Governor Cuomo’s image:

• Perceptions of the governor’s ideology have not changed since The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll last reported it.  Currently 34% of registered voters believe him to be liberal, 38% say that he is moderate, and 13% think of him as conservative.  15% are unsure.  In March, 35% said he was liberal.  37% placed him in the moderate category, and 14% thought he was conservative.  13%, at that time, were unsure.
• 67% of New York State voters think Cuomo is a good leader for the state.  28% disagree, and 5% are unsure.  This is little changed from about two months ago when 69% agreed that the governor is a good leader, 25% disagreed, and 6% were unsure.
• 64% of registered voters agree Governor Cuomo cares about the average person, while 30% do not share this view.  Six percent are unsure.  In March, 66% said that the governor cares, 28% disagreed, and 6% were unsure.
• Nearly six in ten voters — 58% — believe that Mr. Cuomo is changing the way things work in Albany for the better.  33% disagree, and 9% are unsure.  In March, 61% agreed that the governor was changing the State Capitol for the better, 32% disagreed, and 7% were unsure.
• As for whether the governor pays too much attention to national politics and not enough attention to New York State, registered voters statewide mostly disagree. 40% think he pays too much attention to national politics, but a slim majority — 51% — disagrees.  Nine percent are unsure.  This is little changed since March when 40% agreed that Cuomo’s attention is too fixed on the national scene, and 53% disagreed.  7%, then, were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Cares About Average Person

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Attention to National Politics

Senate and Assembly Ratings Stagnant

 After seeing a bump in the legislative bodies’ ratings in a similar poll conducted in March, there has been little movement since then.

29% of registered voters statewide approve of the job the State Senate is doing.  Of these, 3% say the State Senate is doing an excellent job, and 26% say it is doing a good one.  41% rate its performance as fair while 26% give it a poor rating.  Four percent are unsure.

In March, 30% of registered voters approved of the job the State Senate was doing, including 3% who gave it an excellent rating and 27% who said it was doing a good job.  At that time, 39% said the legislative body was doing a fair job, and 25% rated it as poor.  6% were unsure.

27% of registered voters approve of the job the State Assembly is doing, including 3% who rate the Assembly’s performance as excellent and 24% who rate it as good.  42% say the legislative body is doing a fair job, and 24% believe it is doing a poor one.  Six percent are unsure.

Nearly two months ago, 30% of voters approved of the job the State Assembly was doing.  41% gave it a fair rating, and 24% believed it was doing a subpar job.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nearly Half Approve of U.S. Senator Gillibrand

 Just under half of registered voters in New York State — 48% — approve of the job Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is doing in office.  This includes 13% of voters who think Gillibrand is doing an excellent job and 35% who believe she is doing a good one.  More than one in four voters — 27% — say Senator Gillibrand is doing a fair job in her post while 9% think she is performing poorly.  17% are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll last reported this question almost two months ago, Senator Gillibrand’s approval rating was 50%.  24%, then, thought she was doing a fair job while 12% believed she fell short.  14% were unsure.

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

 Schumer Approval Rating Improves

 Senator Chuck Schumer enjoys a job approval rating of 58%.  Included here are 19% who think the senator is doing an excellent job and 39% who believe he is doing a good one.  24% rate his performance as fair while 13% say he is performing poorly.  Six percent are unsure.

In The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll in March, 54% gave Schumer a thumbs-up.  26% thought he was doing an average job while 13% believed he fell short.  Seven percent were unsure.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

Majority in New York State Approves of Obama’s Job Performance

 Among registered voters in New York State, just over half — 52% — approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  This includes 19% who think he is doing an excellent job and 33% who say he is doing a good one.  22% give Obama fair marks while 26% say his performance is poor.  One percent is unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in March, 50% approved of Mr. Obama’s job performance.  22% thought he was doing an average job, and 27% thought his performance fell short.  Less than 1% was unsure.

Table: Obama Approval Rating

Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

 

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

4/16: Weiner Candidacy for Mayor Could Scramble Democratic Primary Contest

Nearly two years after resigning his Congressional seat due to a sexting scandal, how do New York City voters react to Anthony Weiner’s potential run for mayor?  When he is included in the field of candidates for the Democratic nomination, Weiner receives the support of 15% of Democratic voters, placing him second after frontrunner Christine Quinn.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand with Anthony Weiner in the race:

• 26% Christine Quinn
• 15% Anthony Weiner
• 12% John Liu
• 11% Bill de Blasio
• 11% Bill Thompson
•  2% Sal Albanese
•  1% Other
• 22% Undecided

Click Here for Complete April 16, 2013 NYC NBC New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Right now, a Weiner candidacy attracts double-digit support in the Democratic primary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He makes it even more difficult for any of the Democratic contenders to reach the needed forty percent to avoid a run-off.”

When Democratic voters are asked to select their preference in the primary for New York City mayor without Anthony Weiner in the race, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn continues to outpoll her rivals.  However, her support has declined from a similar survey conducted in February.

Among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner in the race:

• 30% Christine Quinn
• 15% Bill de Blasio
• 14% Bill Thompson
• 11% John Liu
•   2% Sal Albanese
•   2% Other
• 26% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, 37% of Democratic voters including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate supported Quinn.  13% backed Thompson, and 12% were for de Blasio.  Nine percent supported Liu while only 2% backed Albanese.  One percent was for another candidate, and 26% were undecided.

To punctuate the fluidity of the Democratic primary contest, only 34% of Democrats who have a candidate preference are firmly committed to that candidate.  30% are somewhat behind their pick while 35% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.  In February’s survey, three in ten Democrats with a candidate preference — 30% — said they strongly supported their choice.  34% were somewhat in their candidate’s corner while 32% thought they might vote differently on primary day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

When Weiner is not in the Democratic primary field, Quinn and de Blasio are each four percentage points higher, and Thompson has three percentage points more in support. Undecided is also four percentage points higher when Weiner is not listed as a candidate.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor with Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

A Redemption Story?  Democrats Not Keen on Weiner Run for Mayor, But…

As Weiner contemplates his return to elective politics, 40% of registered Democrats want Weiner to seek the mayoralty, while 46% do not want him to run.  14% are unsure.  Citywide, only 37% want him to run, while 47% do not want to see him become a candidate for mayor this year.  16% are undecided.

However, these numbers have improved for Weiner since a similar Marist Poll conducted last October.  At that time, only 28% of registered Democrats wanted Weiner to throw his hat into the ring.  57% did not, and 14% were unsure.  Among all registered voters, only one in four – 25% — wanted Weiner to enter the contest for mayor and 58% did not want him to run. 17% were unsure.  At the height of Weiner’s political difficulties in June 2011, 25% of voters wanted Weiner to run for mayor.  56% did not, and 19% were unsure.

Weiner’s favorability has also improved. He now has a net positive rating among registered Democrats.  45% of Democrats have a favorable view of Weiner while 41% have an unfavorable impression of him.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Two months ago, his rating was upside down.  Only 34% of Democrats viewed Weiner favorably at that time, and 43% had an unfavorable impression of him.  23% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.

Overall, 39% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Weiner, while 43% have an unfavorable impression of him.  19% are unsure or have never heard of him. This is also an improvement from two months ago when only 30% had a positive impression of Weiner, and 46% did not think well of him.  24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him at that time.

Would New York City voters consider casting their ballot for the scandal-scarred former congressman?  Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider voting for him for mayor.  Five percent are unsure. Among all registered voters, 40% say that they would consider voting for him. But, 52% would not, and 8% are unsure.

Is it a question of character?  There’s little consensus.  37% of Democrats think Weiner has changed as a person in the past two years while 32% believe he has not reformed. 31% are unsure.  Citywide 33% of registered voters think he has changed during this time, 33% believe he has not, and 34% are unsure.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner?

Table: Has Former Congressman Anthony Weiner Changed as a Person?

All Democratic Hopefuls Viewed Less Favorably

 59% of New York City Democrats have a positive impression of Quinn while 23% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure.  Slightly fewer Democrats now think well of Christine Quinn.  Two months ago, nearly two-thirds of Democrats, 65%, had a favorable opinion of her.  17% had an unfavorable one, and 18% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

What are Democrats’ views toward the other candidates in the field?

• 43% have a favorable view of Bill Thompson.  21% have an unfavorable one, and 36% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, almost half of Democrats — 49% — had a positive opinion of Thompson.  One in five — 20% — had an unfavorable one, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
• Looking at de Blasio’s image, 42% of Democrats think well of him while 23% do not.  35% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, 48% of Democrats had a favorable impression of de Blasio.  20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 32% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
• 40% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Liu while 32% do not.  28% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 43% had a positive impression of Liu.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 30%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
• Albanese has failed to make inroads with his party’s faithful. Just 18% of Democrats have a positive view of him.  27% have an unfavorable impression of Albanese, and a majority — 55% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 26% thought well of Albanese, 20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 54% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Quinn Outdistances Lhota…Weiner Also Has Advantage Over GOP Hopeful

 Looking ahead to the general election, Christine Quinn gets the nod from a majority of voters citywide against Republican Joe Lhota.  Quinn has the support of 59% compared with 19% for Lhota.  21% of registered voters are undecided.  In February, 64% of voters backed Quinn while 18% supported Lhota.  18% were also undecided.

How does Anthony Weiner fare against Lhota?  Weiner – 51% — leads Lhota – 28% — among registered voters in New York City.  21% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota

Low Interest in Mayor’s Race

 Only 38% of registered voters are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  This includes 8% who are following the contest very closely and 30% who are watching it closely.  45% are not following it very closely, and 18% are not following it at all.

In February, 30% reported they were following the mayor’s race very closely or closely.  44% said they weren’t paying much attention to the contest, and 26% reported they weren’t watching it at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race

Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Shows Slight Decline

How do registered voters think Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office?  46% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who think Bloomberg is doing an excellent job in office and 34% who believe he is doing a good one.  32% rate the mayor’s performance as fair while 21% give Bloomberg poor marks.  One percent is unsure.

In February’s survey, 50% approved of Bloomberg’s job performance.  32% thought he was doing a mediocre job while 16% said he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

A City on Track, Says Majority

 55% of registered voters in New York City think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38% believe it is traveling on the wrong road, and 7% are unsure.  In Marist’s February survey, 55% thought the city was on the right path.  36% reported it needed a course correction, and 8% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/4: Half of Voters Trust Obama More than Republicans to Deal with Budget…More Blame GOP for Gridlock

When it comes to the federal budget, 50% of registered voters nationally trust President Barack Obama to make the right decisions.  This compares with 41% who have more faith in the Republicans in Congress to make the correct choices.  Eight percent trust neither the president nor the Congressional GOP while only 1% of voters have confidence in both.  Two percent are unsure.

Click Here for Complete April 4, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“There are no winners when it comes to the budget battles in Washington,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If forced to choose, more voters side with President Obama over the Congressional Republicans.”

By party:

• Voters’ views fall along party lines.  88% of Democrats have more faith in the president to make the appropriate budgetary decisions.
• 85% of Republicans have more confidence in the Congressional GOP.
• Among independent voters, 46% express more trust in the president to decide on fiscal matters while 37% place greater faith in the hands of the Republicans in Congress.

Who is to blame for the gridlock on the federal budget?  Nearly half of registered voters — 48% — point a finger at the Republicans in Congress for the stalemate.  34% place the onus on the president while 11% say both parties are responsible.  Seven percent of voters report neither are to blame or are unsure.

By party:

• While there is a partisan divide, about one in six Republicans blame the Congressional GOP for the stalemate.  68% of Republicans say President Obama is at fault, but 17% blame the Republicans in Congress.
• Among Democrats, 79% place the blame on the Republicans in Congress and only 10% fault the president.
• A plurality of independents — 45% — say the Republicans in Congress are the cause of the gridlock while 32% point a finger at the president.

Table: Who Voters Trust More to Deal with Budget

Table: Blame for Gridlock on the Federal Budget

No Winners in Budget Give and Take

President Obama, however, does not come out unscathed in the budget debate.  A majority of voters — 56% — disapprove of how he is handling the budget negotiations with the Republicans in Congress.  38% approve, and 6% are unsure.

By party:

• 88% of Republicans believe the president is falling short in the negotiating process.
• While 67% of Democrats praise Mr. Obama’s efforts, nearly one in four Democrats — 24% — disapprove of how the president is handling the process.
• More than six in ten independents — 61% — think the president needs to revamp his negotiating skills.

The Republicans in Congress fare worse than the president.  Almost seven in ten registered voters — 69% — disapprove of how they are conducting themselves during the budget negotiations with President Obama.  24% approve of their actions, and 7% are unsure.

By party:

• Even a slim majority of Republicans — 51% — disapprove of how the GOP in Congress is handling budget negotiations while 45% approve.
• 84% of Democrats are dissatisfied with how the Republicans are negotiating with the president.
• 70% of independents disapprove of the way the Congressional Republicans are negotiating with the president.

Table: President Obama’s Handling of Budget Negotiations

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Handling of Budget Negotiations

More Americans View Sequester Cuts as No Big Deal than a Month Ago

When it comes to the impact of the automatic spending cuts on the economy, 40% of adults nationally say they have had no effect on the economy.  36% believe they have had a negative impact while 14% say the sequester cuts have had a positive one.  10% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

There has been an increase in the proportion of Americans who think these across-the- board spending cuts have had little impact on the nation’s economy.  When McClatchy-Marist reported this question last month, 27% of residents thought sequestration would not affect the economy.  Nearly half — 47% — said the economy would be adversely affected, and 19% thought it would be positively impacted.  Seven percent, at that time, were unsure.

On the personal side, almost two-thirds of adults — 65% — say these automatic budget cuts have not had any effect on their family.  26% report the sequestration has had a negative impact while 6% think it has had a positive one.  Three percent are unsure.  Registered voters reflect the views of Americans.

Here, too, there has been an increase in those who aren’t feeling the impact of sequestration.  Last month, 48% of Americans did not anticipate any effect on their family.  39% said the automatic spending cuts would have a negative impact on their personal finances while 10% thought it would have a positive impact on them.  Three percent were unsure.

Table: Impact of Sequester on Economy

Table: Personal Impact of Sequester

Half Approve of Obama’s Job Performance

50% of registered voters nationally approve of how the president is doing his job.  46% disapprove, and 4% are unsure.  When this question was last reported in March, 48% disapproved of President Obama’s job performance.  45% approved, and 7% were unsure.

The president’s image has improved, as well.  53% have a favorable impression of President Obama while 45% have an unfavorable one.  Two percent are unsure.  In March, voters divided.  48% had a positive opinion of the president.  48% had an unfavorable view of him, and 4% were unsure.

The Democrats and Republicans in Congress continue to struggle to make inroads with U.S. voters.  32% of registered voters approve of how the Democrats in Congress are performing in office while 62% disapprove.  Six percent are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey when 31% approved of how Congressional Democrats were doing their job.  62% disapproved, and 7% were unsure.

Congressional Republicans are also swimming against the tide of public opinion.  24% of voters approve of how they are performing in office.  71% disapprove, and 6% are unsure.  Last month, 68% of voters disapproved of the Congressional GOP’s job performance.  26% approved, and 7% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Majority Still Disapproves of Obama’s Handling of the Economy

When it comes to how President Obama is handling the nation’s economy, 53% disapprove of how he is tackling the issue.  44% approve, and 2% are unsure.  Last month, 57% of registered voters gave the president’s handling of the economy a thumbs-down while 40% thought he was doing a good job in this area.  Four percent were unsure.

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy (Over Time)

Mixed Reviews for Obama’s Handling of Foreign Policy

48% of registered voters approve of how President Obama is handling foreign policy.  46% disapprove, and 6% are unsure.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question, voters also divided.  47% disapproved of how the president was dealing with the issue while 46% approved.  Eight percent were unsure.

Table: Handling Foreign Policy

Table: Handling Foreign Policy (Over Time)

Nearly Six in Ten Think the Nation Needs a Course Correction

58% of adults nationally think the country is moving in the wrong direction.  38% believe it is traveling in the right one, and 4% are unsure.  Little has changed on this question since last month when 60% said the nation was off track.  35% believed it was on the correct path, and 5% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Over Time)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/3: McClatchy-Marist Poll: The Budget Deficit

When it comes to the federal budget deficit, do voters nationally have more trust in President Barack Obama to handle the issue, or do they have more confidence in the Republicans in Congress?  At whom do they point a finger for the gridlock surrounding the federal budget?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

4/3: Morning Line for 2016

Speculation about who the presidential candidates will be in 2016 is a year round sport.  On the Democratic side, much attention has been given to the possible candidacies of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden.  How do the two run against potential Republican candidates?  With the exception of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Clinton receives majority support nationally and outdistances her possible rivals by double digits.  Biden also does well except against Christie where both candidates are locked in a close contest.

Click Here for Complete April 3, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“This is, of course, a very early peek at the 2016 presidential contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, these matchups underscore the message from 2012:  the GOP still has work to do to get ready for the next presidential go around.”

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

• New Jersey Governor Chris Christie runs competitively against Clinton.  In fact, he is the only Republican challenger tested that keeps her numbers under majority support.  Clinton garners the backing of 46% of registered voters nationally while Christie has the support of 43%.  11% are undecided.  Not surprisingly, the partisan divide is wide.  81% of Democrats support Clinton while 82% of Republicans back Christie.  Independent voters divide.  43% favor Clinton and 40% are for Christie.  A notable 18% are undecided.
• Clinton fares best against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.  54% of voters back Clinton compared with 38% for Bush.  Eight percent are undecided.  While a partisan divide exists, Clinton receives majority support — 52% — among independents.  Bush has the support of 35% of these voters.  13% are undecided.
• Clinton also has a double-digit lead against Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  Here, 52% of voters favor Clinton while 40% are for Rubio.  Eight percent are undecided.  More independent voters are in Hillary Clinton’s camp.  Nearly half — 49% — are behind Clinton compared with 37% for Rubio.
• Against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Clinton also has a strong lead.  52% of voters support Clinton compared with 41% for Paul.  Seven percent are undecided.  While the candidates’ support is along party lines, independents divide.  47% back Clinton compared with 45% for Paul.

Looking at Biden’s chances, among registered voters nationally:

• Against Chris Christie, the two are neck and neck.  Christie receives the support of 46% of registered voters nationally while Biden garners 43%.  11% are undecided.  Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide, but Christie — 47% — has the advantage over Biden — 35% — among independent voters.  18% of independents are undecided.
• Biden has his largest lead against Marco Rubio.  Here, Biden receives majority support.  53% back Biden while 39% are for Rubio.  Eight percent of voters are undecided.  Again, there is a partisan divide.  Biden, though, receives the backing of half — 50% — of independent voters nationally while 36% are behind Rubio.  14% are undecided.
• Against Rand Paul, 50% are for Biden compared with 41% for Paul.  Eight percent are undecided.  Independent voters are the key.  A plurality — 47% — favor Biden while 39% rally for Paul.   A notable 14% are undecided.
• Biden garners the support of 49% of registered voters against Jeb Bush — 41%.  10% are undecided.  Among independent voters, 43% back Biden while 41% are behind Bush.  Nearly one in five independent voters — 17% — is undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Biden/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Biden/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Biden/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Biden/Bush

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

4/3: The Agenda for America: Job Creation Trumps Deficit Reduction

Almost two-thirds of Americans — 64% — want Congress and President Barack Obama to agree that creating jobs should be the top priority for the nation.  33%, however, think reducing the federal deficit should be at the top of their agenda, and 3% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

Click Here for Complete April 3, 2013 USA Morning Joe/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Closing the budget deficit may be the driving force in Washington, but the jobs picture is the public’s main concern,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

By party:

• More than three in four Democrats — 76% — say Congress and the president should first tackle job creation while 21% say the deficit should be the priority.
• However, a slim majority of Republicans — 51% — disagree and want deficit reduction to be the focus.  Still, 46% of Republicans think job creation should be priority number one for Congress and President Obama.
• Looking at independent voters, 60% want Congress and the president to agree that job creation should be the country’s top priority while 36% say paying down the deficit should be first addressed.

Table: Top Priority for the Country

Americans Divide over Who Has Better Plan to Deal with the Budget Deficit 

While 44% of adults nationally think President Obama has the better approach to deal with the federal budget deficit, four in ten residents — 40% — believe the Republicans in Congress have the better plan.  Nine percent say neither the president nor the Congressional GOP has the proper vision to take on this issue.  Only 1% reports both have an appropriate plan to tackle the deficit and 6% are unsure.

Among registered voters nationally, 43% believe the president has the better approach while 42% say the Republicans in Congress do.  Nine percent think neither has the appropriate plan while just 1% reports both have a clear path to reduce the deficit.  Five percent are unsure.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide.

• 78% of Democrats believe President Obama has the better approach to reduce the federal budget deficit.
• Looking at Republicans, 81% say the Republicans in Congress are better prepared to deal with the issue.
• There is little consensus among independent voters nationally.  40% say the Congressional Republicans’ plan is stronger while 39% think the president has the better approach.

Table: Whether Congressional Republicans or President Obama has the Better Approach to Deal with the Deficit 

Spending Cuts or Increased Revenues?

When it comes to how the budget deficit should be reduced, more than four in ten Americans want a combination of reduced spending and increased revenues.  42% say government spending should be cut and revenues should be increased.  35% think revenues, including limiting tax deductions on higher incomes, should be mostly increased while 17% want mostly cuts to government spending, including entitlements like Medicare and Medicaid.  Six percent are unsure.

“A plurality of Americans prefer both spending cuts and added revenues as a strategy to close the deficit,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “By two to one, people think added revenues makes more sense than cutting spending if only one path is pursued.”

By party:

• Nearly half of Democrats — 48% — favor revenue increases.  41% are for both revenue increases and spending cuts while only 6% want spending to be reduced.
• More than four in ten Republicans — 41% — believe the best approach is to cut spending and increase revenues while 32% want expenditures to be slashed.  Just 21% prefer increasing revenues.
• A plurality of independent voters — 46% — think a mixed method of spending cuts and revenue increases is the best way to reduce the federal budget deficit.  31% say increasing revenues is the way to go while 18% favor spending cuts.

What about the tax rate?  In January, the top federal tax rate for a family income of more than $450,000 was raised from 35% to nearly 40%.  With that, a majority of adults nationally — 56% — say they are neither more nor less likely to support reducing the deficit by limiting tax deductions on higher incomes.  22% are more likely to support closing tax loopholes for Americans with higher incomes while 18% are less likely to back such a plan given the increase in the tax rate earlier this year.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Method to Reduce the Federal Budget Deficit

Table: Deficit Reduction by Limiting Tax Deductions on Higher Incomes

Bump in Those Who Prioritize Controlling Gun Violence over Gun Rights

On the issue of gun violence, a majority of Americans — 53% — believe it is more important to control gun violence than to protect gun rights — 44%.  Three percent are unsure.

There has been a slight increase in the proportion of U.S. residents who put the impetus on controlling gun violence.  When this question was previously reported, 49% of Americans said this should be the priority.  48% disagreed and reported that protecting gun rights was more important.  Three percent were unsure.

Among gun owners in the United States, 63% currently say it is more important to protect gun rights.  34% think controlling gun violence is the key, and 3% are unsure.

The views of registered voters nationally reflect those of Americans, overall.  54% of voters prioritize controlling gun violence over protecting gun rights — 43%.  Three percent are unsure.

By party:

• 77% of Democrats believe controlling gun violence is the key.  22% want gun rights to be protected, and 2% are unsure.
• Among Republicans, 63% think it is more important to protect gun rights while 34% say controlling gun violence should be the priority.  Three percent are unsure.
• Independent voters divide.  48% think it is more important to protect gun rights while 48% believe gun control should be the priority.  Four percent are unsure.

Six in ten Americans — 60% — want to make the laws governing the sale of firearms more strict.  Just 5% would like the laws to be less strict, and 33% want them to be left as they are.  Two percent are unsure.  Among gun owners nationally, half — 50% — say these laws should remain in their current form.  43% think these regulations should be stricter while only 7% believe they should be relaxed.  One percent is unsure.  Registered voters reflect the views of Americans, overall.

When it comes to specific gun laws, nearly six in ten U.S. residents — 59% — support legislation that would ban the sale of assault weapons.  37% oppose such a measure, and 4% are unsure.  While 51% of gun owners oppose such legislation, 45% are in favor of such a proposal.  Four percent are unsure.  Registered voters align with the overall population.

Overwhelmingly, Americans support legislation that would call for background checks for private gun sales and purchases made at gun shows.  87% have this opinion while 12% oppose it.  Only 1% is unsure.

Table: More Important to Protect Gun Rights or Control Gun Violence

Table: The Strictness of Laws Governing the Sale of Firearms

Table: Favor or Oppose Legislation that Would Ban Assault Weapons

Table: Favor or Oppose Legislation that Would Require Background Checks for Private Gun Sales and Sales at Gun Shows

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/2: McClatchy-Marist Poll: Campaign 2016

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential contest, what are the chances of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden?

The latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll takes a look at their odds against potential Republican candidates.  To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

3/19: Voters’ Expectations Tempered for Obama’s Middle East Trip

What do U.S. registered voters think will come of President Barack Obama’s trip to the Middle East?

About two-thirds of voters — 66% — don’t think it will make much difference in easing the tensions in the region.  19% believe the president’s trip will increase tensions in the area while 15% say the visit will decrease them.

Click Here for Complete March 19, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Voters are not optimistic that the president’s trip will be a productive one,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, such low expectations present an opportunity for President Obama to make strides both abroad and in voters’ views of his standing internationally.”

But, will Mr. Obama’s presence help jump-start negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians?  65% of voters nationally do not think his trip will help restart peace talks.  27%, however, believe his visit will, and 3% say it will make no difference in the process.  Six percent are unsure.

While 80% of Republicans and 70% of independent voters do not think President Obama’s visit to the Middle East will restart peace talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians, Democrats divide.  47% of Democrats do not think it will help restart talks while 43% believe the trip will.

Table: Impact of President Obama’s Trip to the Middle East on Tension in the Region

Table: Impact of President Obama’s Trip to the Middle East on Peace Talks

Obama’s Handling of Foreign Policy Receives Mixed Reviews…Lowest Point in Two Years

There has been a decline in the proportion of registered voters nationally who approve of how President Barack Obama is dealing with foreign policy.  Registered voters divide with 46% reporting they approve of his handling of the issue and 47% saying they disapprove.  Eight percent are unsure.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in December 2012, a slim majority of voters — 51% — approved of how the president was dealing with foreign policy.  42% disapproved, and 7% were unsure.

The president’s current approval rating is the lowest he’s received on this issue since April 2011.  At that time, 46% gave the president a thumbs-up on foreign policy.  48% disapproved, and 6% were unsure.

Table: Handling Foreign Policy

Table: Handling Foreign Policy Over Time

Seven in Ten View Iran as Imminent Nuclear Threat

70% of registered voters think Iran is close to becoming a nuclear threat.  This includes 31% who believe the nation is very close and 39% who believe it is close.  18% don’t perceive the country as an imminent nuclear danger while 6% don’t think it is a threat at all.  Six percent are unsure.

Republicans — 84% — are most likely to think Iran is on the cusp of becoming a nuclear threat.  More than seven in ten independent voters — 72% — agree.  Among Democrats, 59% have this view.

Table: Iran as a Nuclear Threat

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

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