7/25: Candidate Clinton? 50-50 Odds Are Never a Sure Bet

July 25, 2014 by  
Filed under Blog, Featured, Lee Miringoff

There are two schools of thought on whether Hillary Clinton is running for president in 2016.  Some say she is and some say she isn’t.

But, is Clinton in essence already on the campaign trail?  I don’t know.  What have we learned about whether she will eventually run for real?  I don’t know.

Why? Because if Hillary Clinton is running for president, she’d be doing exactly what she’s been doing lately… a book tour, public pronouncements, TV appearances etc.  If Hillary Clinton is not running for president, she’d also be doing exactly what she’s been doing lately… a book tour, public pronouncements, TV appearances etc.

There are several interesting take-aways from our recent NBC News/Marist Polls of Iowa and New Hampshire on what the public thinks about the former First Lady, former US Senator, and former Secretary of State.  First off, Democrats are ready for Hillary.  Her favorable rating with her party’s faithful is 89% in Iowa and 94% in New Hampshire.  WOW!  And, she trounces VP Joe Biden in both of these states in early hypothetical matchups by 50 points in Iowa and 56 points in New Hampshire.  DOUBLE WOW!!

Dems may be ready for Hillary, but the rest of the voters in these two states are less than eager.  In fact, she is closely matched against most of her potential GOP rivals, and is under 50% in both states against all comers except Scott Walker in Iowa and Ted Cruz in New Hampshire.  To make matters even less comforting for the Clinton for President team, each of the Republicans runs better in pairings against Clinton than their own favorability rating.  In other words, Hillary Clinton unifies the GOP opposition.  Right now, she’d make Iowa and New Hampshire, states that Obama carried both times, swing states.  Not a pretty picture for the Democrats.

So, Hillary Clinton may ultimately toss her hat into the ring.  And, she may have a clear path to her party’s nomination.  But, she will have to go through a prolonged battle against her eventual GOP opponent before anyone should talk of her winning the White House.

7/21: Fashion Forward?

Coco Chanel, Burberry, Calvin Klein, Dior, Anna Wintour, Christian Louboutin, Dolce & Gabbana, Prada: the list goes on.  These influential names and brands in fashion are familiar to many Americans.  Because we are familiar with these names, does it mean we are too focused on fashion? Many Americans, 68%, think we focus too much on fashion, while one quarter, 26%, say that the attention is about right.  Only 7% believe fashion deserves more consideration.  However, a majority, 55%, also say how they dress is an important part of who they are.  Fewer Americans, 45%, report that choosing their outfit isn’t something they think about.

Click Here for Complete July 14, 2014 Marist Poll Release and Tables

Does style need to come with a couture price tag? Most Americans say it does not.  More than eight in ten Americans, 86%, say it’s possible to be stylish on a limited budget, while only 14% believe good fashion is just for those with a lot of money.  But, while great style may not need to break the bank, many Americans, 65%, believe that fashion communicates status and divides people into social classes.  Far fewer, 35%, disagree.

Aside from money, does fashion also require as much creativity as playing a musical instrument or painting a picture? Here, Americans divide.  Just over half, 53%, of Americans say it doesn’t but 47% believe good style calls for creative thinking.  Although putting an outfit together may call for creativity there are pressures to fit in.  While a majority of Americans, 57%, believe someone who dresses very differently than most people is stylish, a notable proportion, 35%, say they’re strange.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/17: New Hampshire 2016 Could Be Swing State

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in a close contest against potential GOP rival, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in a 2016 general election matchup in New Hampshire.  Clinton has single-digit leads against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  She has a wider lead over Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.  But, only against Cruz is Clinton supported by more than 50% of New Hampshire voters.  Clinton does better than each of her potential opponents among independent voters.  The gender gap in all of these matchups is wide.

Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll New Hampshire Release and Tables

Clinton is well liked by a majority of New Hampshire residents owing to her strong standing among women.  Vice President Biden has a higher negative rating than positive score among residents in the state.

New Hampshire residents give mixed reviews to Republicans Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker.  The ratings for Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz are all upside down with more residents viewing them negatively than positively.

The morning line for the first-in-the-nation presidential primary has Hillary Clinton the overwhelming choice of Democrats over Joe Biden.  Both Clinton and Biden are popular among most Democrats in the state.

On the Republican side, there is no clear choice among the potential 2016 New Hampshire Primary electorate for their party’s nominee.  More than one in five GOP’ers are undecided, and only Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush have low double-digit support.  Each potential GOP contender is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by Republicans in the state.  Rand Paul is the most popular among GOP voters.

“New Hampshire always gets a lot of attention because of its status as the first-in-the-nation primary and 2016 will be no exception,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “It may be a frequent stopping off point for the general election, as well.”

Poll Points

  • Democrat Hillary Clinton is in a competitive contest against potential GOP rival Rand Paul, 46% to 43%.  She has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio, 47% to 42%, in each instance.  Clinton does better against Scott Walker, 48% to 39%, and Ted Cruz, 51% to 38%.
  • Clinton is boosted by her support among independent voters and is backed by the majority of women in each matchup.
  • Statewide, 53%, of residents have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton including 60% of women.  42% of state residents have an unfavorable opinion of her.  Biden is viewed positively by 39% of New Hampshire residents, but 48% have a negative opinion of him.
  • Residents in the state divide about how they view several of the potential GOP candidates:  Marco Rubio who has a 31% positive rating and a 28% negative score; Rand Paul who receives a favorable rating of 39% and an unfavorable score of 38%; and Scott Walker, with whom voters are least familiar, is liked by 24% of residents and disliked by 23%.
  • Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz all have ratings that are upside down.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Frontrunner

  • Hillary Clinton outpaces Joe Biden 74% to 18% among the potential New Hampshire Democratic Primary electorate for 2016.
  • Most Democrats in the state, 94%, have a positive opinion of Clinton.  Just 4% view her negatively.  Joe Biden is also liked by most New Hampshire Democrats.  79% have a favorable view of him, and 14% have an unfavorable opinion of him.

GOP:  No Pace Horse

  • 22% of the potential New Hampshire Republican Primary electorate are undecided in their preference for a 2016 GOP presidential nominee.  Paul at 14%, Christie at 13%, and Bush at 10% are the only potential candidates who have double-digit support.
  • The contest is no clearer when the potential Republican electorate is asked for a second choice.  Rubio is the backup pick of 16%, Bush garners 13%, Christie and Paul each attract 12%, and Ryan is the second choice of 10%.
  • 71% of state Republicans have a positive opinion of Rand Paul and only 15% have a negative impression of him.  Although each of the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among New Hampshire Republicans, Paul has the highest favorability rating.  A majority of state Republicans like Bush, 65%, Rubio, 58%, and Christie, 52%.  50% have a positive view of Cruz and Walker.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/17: Iowa 2016: Rand Paul and Chris Christie Tossup with Hillary Clinton

Looking ahead to 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the odds on favorite against Vice President Joe Biden among Iowa Democrats for her party’s nomination.  But, she would find a general election matchup against either Kentucky Senator Rand Paul or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie very competitive.  Clinton edges former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and has an early lead over Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.  There is a wide gender gap in these matchups.  Although each of the potential Republican candidates has a more positive than negative rating with GOP voters, all but Paul and Rubio are upside down when it comes to Iowa residents’ impressions of the Republican candidates.


Click Here for Complete July 17, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Iowa Release and Tables

But, first things first, one in five 2016 potential Republican caucus goers are unsure who they support for their presidential nominee, and no single potential candidate has broken out of the pack.  Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan have low double-digit support among potential Republican caucus attendees in the state.

On the Democratic side, seven in ten support Clinton over Biden.  Even though Clinton is more popular, both receive positive scores from most Democrats.  Clinton is viewed favorably by a majority of Iowans.  Not so for Biden whose negatives among state residents exceed his positives, overall.

“In a state Obama carried twice, Hillary Clinton would find Rand Paul and Chris Christie formidable opponents in the battle for Iowa’s six electoral votes,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The contest narrows in these two matchups because Paul and Christie do better with independent voters than do the other Republicans.”

Poll Points

  • Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is closely matched against potential GOP rivals Rand Paul, 45% to 45%, and Chris Christie, 44% to 43%, among Iowa’s registered voters.  Clinton has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, 46% to 42%.
  • In these contests, Clinton and each of the potential Republican contenders, Paul, Christie, and Bush, are competitive among independents.
  • Clinton is ahead of Marco Rubio, 49% to 40%; Ted Cruz, 49% to 37%; and Scott Walker, 50% to 37%.
  • Regardless of the potential GOP opponent against Clinton, there is a wide gender gap.
  • A majority of Iowans, 52%, have a positive impression of Hillary Clinton, and 42% have a negative view of her.  In contrast, more state residents, 48%, have an unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden, and 39% have a favorable one.
  • Rand Paul has a 38% favorable and a 36% unfavorable rating, and Marco Rubio has a 30% favorable and a 28% unfavorable score.  They are the only two Republicans who are not viewed more negatively than positively by Iowans.
  • Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush have higher negative scores than positive.

GOP:  No Leader of the Pack

  • 20% of the potential Republican electorate in Iowa are undecided about their choice for a 2016 GOP nominee.  Bush at 12%, Paul at 12%, and Ryan at 11% are the only potential candidates in double-digits.
  • The contest hardly clarifies when potential Republican caucus goers are asked their second choice.  Bush at 12%, Santorum, Ryan, and Perry each at 11%, and Paul at 10% are the only potential candidates who attract double-digit support as a second choice.
  • All the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among Iowa Republicans.  Rand Paul is liked best by Iowa Republicans.  66% of Republicans have a positive view of him, and only 18% have a negative impression of him.  A majority of state Republicans also have a favorable view of Bush, 63%, and Rubio, 57%.  50% have a positive impression of Christie.

Dems:  Clinton Strong Front-runner

  • Hillary Clinton receives the support of 70% of the potential Democratic electorate compared with 20% for Joe Biden.
  • Most Democrats in the state, 89%, have a favorable impression of Clinton.  Only 6% view her unfavorably.  Joe Biden is also popular among Iowa Democrats.  72% view him positively, and just 18% see him in a negative light.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/16: New Hampshire Election 2014 Gender Gap Drives Contest for U.S. Senate

Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads potential Republican nominee Scott Brown by eight points in her bid to be re-elected to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire.  Shaheen is popular among a majority of Granite State residents, whereas, Brown is more polarized.  But, it depends who you ask.  There is a wide gender gap that is defining this matchup.  Brown currently has a wide lead over his GOP rivals for the state’s Republican primary in September.  A majority of state residents approve of the job incumbent Governor Maggie Hassan is doing.  Her performance rating is strong among her Democratic base, as well as among women, and independent voters.  President Obama is not popular in the state and neither is the Affordable Care Act.

Click Here for Complete July 16, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll New Hampshire Release and Tables

“At this point, Scott Brown is not facing a high hurdle for the GOP nomination to oppose incumbent Senator Shaheen,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, Shaheen presents a bigger obstacle in his attempt to win this seat for the Republicans in November.”

Poll Points

President Obama Upside Down and Congressional Republicans Even More So

  • A majority of New Hampshire residents, 53%, disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.  39% approve.
  • More than two-thirds of residents, 68%, disapprove of the how the Congressional Republicans are doing in Washington including a plurality of Republican voters, 47%.  Just 19% of adults statewide approve of the job performance of the Congressional GOP.
  • 68% of New Hampshire adults believe the nation is off course.  26% believe the nation is headed in the right direction.  A majority of Democrats, 56%, think the nation is on the right path.  But, 90% of Republicans and 72% of independents describe the nation as on the wrong track.

No to Health Care Plan, Yes to Limits on Greenhouse Gases, Divide on Immigration

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/16: Tossup for U.S. Senate in Iowa, Governor Branstad Leads in Re-Election Bid

Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst are tied in their bid to win the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring Senator Tom Harkin.  About one in seven voters are undecided in this contest.  Not surprisingly, there is a strong partisan divide.  Braley overwhelmingly carries Democrats, and Ernst distances her opponent among Republicans by a similar margin.  Independent voters split between the two candidates.  A gender gap also keeps this a close matchup.  Braley is ahead among women, and Ernst leads among men.  A notable proportion of Iowans have yet to form an opinion about each of these candidates.  Both, Braley and Ernst, have similar favorability ratings statewide.  Incumbent Governor Terry Branstad has a double-digit lead over his competitor, State Senator Jack Hatch.  A strong majority of Iowans approve of the job Governor Branstad is doing in office, and he is well liked in the state.  Half of Iowans are not familiar enough with Democratic challenger, Jack Hatch to offer an opinion of him.  A majority of Iowa residents disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.

Click Here for Complete July 16, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Iowa Release and Tables

“The contest to replace five-term Senator Tom Harkin is neck and neck,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Iowa, right now, represents a chance for the GOP to pick up a Democratic seat in their quest to gain the majority in the U.S. Senate.”

Poll Points

Majority Disapprove of President Obama, Congressional GOP More Unpopular

  • 51% of Iowans disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in office.  36% approve.
  • The Congressional Republicans are not held in high esteem.  63% of adults statewide disapprove of their job performance, and only 21% approve.
  • Nearly two-thirds of Iowans, 66%, think the country is off on the wrong track compared with 26% who describe it as on the right path.  A majority of Democrats, 52%, believe the nation is on course.  But, 88% of Republicans and 69% of independents think the nation’s trajectory is misguided.

Mixed Bag on President’s Agenda

 
Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/15: Colorado Democrats, Udall and Hickenlooper Lead But Both Under 50%

map of ColoradoIn his effort to be re-elected to the U.S. Senate from Colorado, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall has a single-digit advantage over Republican Congressman Cory Gardner.  Udall’s seven point lead over Gardner is based on his greater support from independents, women, and especially Latino voters.  In the contest for governor, incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper leads his Republican challenger former Congressman Bob Beauprez.  A majority of Coloradans approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing as governor including many independent voters among whom he leads Beauprez by double-digits.  A notable proportion of Colorado residents are not familiar with Beauprez.

Click Here for Complete July 15, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Colorado Release and Tables

“Udall has the early advantage to hold his Senate seat,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, he’s under 50% with a low favorability rating.”

Poll Points

President Obama and Congressional Republicans Not Popular

  • Only 40% of Coloradans approve of President Obama’s job performance.  Nearly half, 49%, disapprove.
  • Colorado residents are even less enamored with the Congressional Republicans. 21% of adults statewide approve of the job they are doing, and 64% disapprove.  Even a plurality of Republicans, 45%, disapprove of the Congressional GOP.  40% approve of the job they are doing.
  • 63% of Coloradans are unhappy with where the nation is headed including 90% of Republicans and 64% of independents.  29% believe the nation is on the right course including 58% of Democrats.

 
OK Pathway to Citizenship, Limit Greenhouse Gases, but No to Health Care Act

Polarized Over Firearms, Little Support for More Limits on Contraception or Abortion

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/15: Michigan Election 2014 Statewide Contests Competitive

 

map of michigan

©istockphoto.com/Keith Binns

Democrat Congressman Gary Peters is ahead of former Secretary of State and Republican Terri Lynn Land by six points in the race to win the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring six-term incumbent, Democrat Carl Levin.  However, both candidates are not well known to voters, and nearly one in five voters are undecided.  This remains a competitive race.  Incumbent Governor Rick Snyder is neck and neck with his Democratic challenger and former Congressman Mark Schauer.  Snyder has a positive job performance rating as governor statewide but his favorability rating is less strong.  He is bolstered in his re-election effort by an advantage among independent voters and the electorate’s lack of familiarity with Schauer.  Despite having carried Michigan twice, President Obama’s job rating is upside down.

Click Here for Complete July 15, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll Michigan Release and Tables

“Peters has an early edge in this contest to hold Senator Levin’s seat for the Democrats,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But Democrats can’t count on putting Michigan in their win column.”

Poll Points

President Obama and Congressional Republicans Not Well Received

 President’s Agenda Divides State

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/10: Obama’s Rating Notches Up, But Majority of New Yorkers Still Down on President

The President’s approval rating in New York State has ticked upward since last November, but is still upside down.  According to this Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 NY/Marist Poll, President Obama has improved his standing among African Americans and New York City voters.  Reflecting national trends, voters in New York are not overly enthusiastic about the 2014 elections.  Even in blue state New York, Republicans show greater enthusiasm than either Democrats or independents.  New Yorkers rate each of their two U.S. Senators, Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, more positively than negatively.

 “Even in New York, the president struggles to convince a majority of voters that he is doing a good job,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Click Here for Complete July 10, 2014 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

Poll Points

  • The marginal uptick in the president’s performance is primarily due to his backing from 87% of African Americans, an increase from 74% last time, and 65% of voters in New York City, up from 50% in November.
  • Looking ahead to November’s elections, voters, overall, are not very enthusiastic about heading to the polls.  There is a party difference with 26% of Republicans saying they are very enthusiastic compared with 16% of Democrats and 11% of independents who share this high level of interest.
  • Only 3% of voters between 18 and 29 are very enthusiastic about voting in November.  Although they lack intensity, nearly six in ten in this age group say they are somewhat enthusiastic.

New York’s U.S. Senators Schumer and Gillibrand Steady as they Go…

 U.S. Senators Charles Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand continue to enjoy steady approval ratings.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/9: Cuomo Outdistancing Largely Unknown GOP Challenger Astorino

©istockphoto.com/DenisTangneyJr.

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo has a sizable lead over his Republican challenger, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino in this Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 NY/Marist Poll. Cuomo is advantaged by strong support from his Democratic base, in addition, to leading among independents and even attracting a notable proportion of Republicans.  Despite voters’ lingering concerns about the economy, Astorino has had difficulty getting traction.  A majority of voters do not have an opinion of him, and those who do, divide.  Governor Cuomo even outperforms his challenger among voters who see the state as still needing major changes or who see taxes or economic development as the top state priority.

“The combination of Cuomo’s standing and voters’ lack of familiarity with Astorino has resulted in a lopsided contest for governor in this Democratic state,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Getting well known requires a lot of resources which will be more than matched by the governor’s war chest.”

Click Here for Complete July 9, 2014 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

Poll Points

Voters’ Impressions of the Governor Account for Wide Lead

 63%, overall, say Cuomo is a good leader for NYS, and 60% believe he cares about the average person.

Economy Still Top Challenge

Voters point to a number of economic issues when asked about their top priority for the state.  Jobs, economic development, and taxes are three of the top four issues cited.  Education ranks second, overall.

  • Voters divide about whether the state is on track. (Trend) 47% believe it is on the right path, while 46% disagree. This is comparable to results seen in March.
  • 60% still believe the state remains in a recession although this is down from 65% four months ago. (Trend) Impressions about the economy have improved slightly in New York City and its suburbs, but there has been little change Upstate.
  • A sign that voters may be more optimistic about the state’s economic future is that 56% believe the worst of the economic slump has passed.  A majority of voters in all three regions of the state share this view.

For more analysis see Lee Miringoff’s blog, “Incumbent Cuomo Favored by Those Who Want Change.”

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

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