10/31: Cuomo Outpaces Astorino in Governor’s Race

Democratic incumbent Andrew Cuomo, 56%, leads his Republican challenger, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, 30%, by almost two-to-one in the race for governor in New York among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

Cuomo has the support of three in four likely voters from his own party, but he also has the backing of more than three in ten Republicans likely to cast a ballot.  Regionally, Cuomo has a wide lead among likely voters in New York City and receives majority support among likely voters in the city’s suburbs.  Although the contest is closer Upstate, Cuomo has a 9 point advantage over Astorino in the region.

Despite a lukewarm 44% job approval rating among registered voters, Cuomo has maintained his large advantage over Astorino.  Cuomo’s lead is bolstered by the positive view many likely voters have of him.  Astorino, who is still not well-known to more than a quarter of the state electorate, has a higher negative rating than positive score among voters.

“The poll suggests Astorino hasn’t gotten any traction,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Astorino has been unable to dent Cuomo’s image while Cuomo has successfully defined his opponent.” 

Complete October 31, 2014 NBC 4 New York/The Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

Poll Points Governor:

  • Cuomo, 56%, leads Astorino, 30%, in the governor’s race among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has 6%.  Only 7% are undecided.  In NBC 4 New York/The Wall Street Journal/Marist’s late September survey, Cuomo, 54%, outdistanced Astorino, 29%, by a similar margin.
  • While Cuomo receives the support of 75% of Democratic likely voters, he also garners 31% of Republicans likely to vote.  A plurality of independents likely to cast a ballot, 47%, supports Cuomo compared with 32% for Astorino.  Hawkins has the backing of 10% of independents.
  • Cuomo, 72%, outpaces Astorino, 13%, among likely voters in New York City.  He also bests Astorino, 57% to 37%, among those in the city’s suburbs.  Upstate, Cuomo leads Astorino, 46% to 37%.
  • 57% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters, up slightly from 53% last month, strongly support their choice of candidate for governor Eight percent might vote differently.  While those who strongly back Astorino, 55%, is little changed from 56% previously, the proportion of Cuomo’s backers who express a strong level of support is up to 59% from 53% in September.
  • 62% of likely voters with a candidate preference for governor including early voters say they are voting for their candidate while 35% report they are casting a ballot against the others in the race.  While 77% of Cuomo’s backers say their vote is in favor of the incumbent, 55% of Astorino’s supporters report their vote is in opposition to Cuomo.
  • Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Cuomo leads Astorino, 54% to 28%.
  • A majority of likely voters, 56%, has a positive impression of Cuomo.  Among registered voters, a similar 54% have this view (Trend) Cuomo’s job approval rating among registered voters is at 44%, comparable to the 42% he received last month (Trend).
  • Astorino’s favorable rating, 32% to 41%, remains upside down among likely voters.  Astorino’s negatives are up slightly from 37%, and he is still little known to a notable proportion, 27%, of the likely electorate.  Among registered voters, Astorino’s favorable score is 29%.  His negative rating is 40% (Trend).
  • Education is cited by 21% of likely voters as the top priority for the governor of New York.  Jobs, 19%, and taxes, 18%, follow closely behind.  Eight percent mention security from terrorism, and an additional 8% say improving the business climate is key.  26% select another issue.
  • Although they divide about the direction of the state, registered voters are slightly more positive about its trajectory.  46% believe the state is on the wrong track while 45% say it is on the right course.  In September, half of voters thought New York was heading in the wrong direction, and 43% thought it was moving in the right direction (Trend).

Ebola in New York: More than Six in Ten Approve of Cuomo’s Handling… Residents Weigh In on Regulations.

A Look to 2016: Do Voters Want a Candidate Cuomo?

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/26: North Carolina: Hagan and Tillis Tied in U.S. Senate Race

October 26, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

In the contest for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, 43%, and her Republican challenger and state legislator Thom Tillis, 43%, are in a dead heat among North Carolina likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Six percent are undecided, and 6% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they might vote differently.

Hagan and Tillis maintain their support among their respective party’s base.  However, Tillis leads Hagan among independents likely to vote.  A gender gap also exists.  Hagan has a 10 point advantage among women likely to go to the polls while Tillis is up 11 among men.

Complete October 26, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina

“Up until this point, incumbent Hagan has been considered the strongest Democrat among the so-called Democratic firewall states in this election cycle,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Now, this is a contest that could go either way, and the outcome may determine control of the Senate.”

Poll points:

  • Hagan and Tillis are tied with 43% in the contest for U.S. Senate among likely voters in North Carolina including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Libertarian Sean Haugh garners 7% of the vote, and 6% are undecided.  In NBC News/Marist’s survey earlier this month, Hagan had 44% to 40% for Tillis.
  • Allegiance falls along party lines.  Among independents likely to cast a ballot, Tillis, 41%, has a 10 point advantage over Hagan, 31%, an increase from the 4 point edge he previously had.  Haugh receives the support of 17% of independents, up slightly from 12%.
  • A gender gap remains.  Hagan, 48%, outpaces Tillis, 38%, among women likely to vote.  Tillis, 49%, leads Hagan, 38%, among men likely to cast a ballot.
  • 58% of likely voters with a candidate preference including those who voted early strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate, up from 50% in early October.  Six percent of voters with a candidate preference might vote differently.  More of Hagan’s supporters, 67%, are firmly committed to her than Tillis’ backers, 54%, are to him.
  • Among North Carolina registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Hagan has 42% to 40% for Tillis and 8% for Haugh.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • Both Hagan and Tillis have higher negative than positive ratings.  48% of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Hagan, and 41% have a favorable impression of her.  44% have a negative impression of Tillis, and 40% have a positive opinion of him.
  • Job creation and economic growth, 20%, is the top concern for North Carolina likely voters in deciding their vote for Congress.  Health care, 16%, and breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington, 15%, capture the second and third spots.  Social Security and Medicare, 12%, follows.  Military action against ISIS and the deficit and government spending each receives 10%.  Looking out for the interests of women, 5%, and immigration, 3%, follow.
  • President Barack Obama’s job approval rating in North Carolina, 37%, remains low among residents.  The president’s score was 39% in early October.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

10/26: Iowa: Ernst and Braley in Competitive Contest for U.S. Senate… Branstad with Large Lead in Governor’s Race

October 26, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

With just 3 points separating them, Republican Joni Ernst, 49%, and Democrat Bruce Braley, 46%, are in a tight race for U.S. Senate in Iowa among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Four percent of likely voters are undecided, and 5% of those with a candidate preference think they might vote differently.  In a previous poll earlier this month, Ernst received the support of 46% to 44% for Braley among likely voters statewide.

Braley, 52%, has a slight edge over Ernst, 47%, among early voters.  But, Ernst offsets Braley’s lead with greater support among voters still expected to cast a ballot, 50% to 43%.

In the governor’s race in Iowa, Republican incumbent Terry Branstad, 59%, outdistances Democrat Jack Hatch, 36%, among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Branstad has a more than two-to-one lead over Hatch among independents likely to vote. 

Complete October 26, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Iowa

“The campaigns have taken a toll on both senate candidates who have unusually high negatives for non-incumbents,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The GOP is chomping at the bit over the prospect of picking up a senate seat the Democrats have held for thirty years in a state President Obama carried twice.”

Poll Points U.S. Senate:

  • Among Iowa likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Ernst receives 49% to 46% for Braley in the race for U.S. Senate in Iowa.  Four percent are undecided, and 5% may vote differently.
  • Braley edges Ernst 52% to 47% among early voters.  But, Ernst receives the support of 50% of likely voters yet to cast a ballot compared with 43% for Braley.
  • Ernst and Braley have secured their respective party’s base.  Among independents likely to vote, Ernst, 49%, leads Braley, 41%, by 8 points.  Ernst had the same advantage among independents likely to vote, 8 points, earlier this month.
  • Although the margin separating the candidates is little changed from a month ago, the gender gap has narrowed.  Ernst’s once 18 point lead among men likely to vote has diminished to 12 points.  Braley’s lead among women has decreased from 11 points to 5 points.
  • 62% of likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate including early voters strongly support their choice of candidate.  Five percent with a candidate preference might vote differently.  64% of Ernst’s supporters report a strong commitment to her compared with 60% of Braley’s backers who express the same level of support for him.
  • 83% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they will not waver from their choice of candidate, even though there are libertarian and independent candidates on the ballot.  Braley’s supporters, 9%, are more than twice as likely than Ernst’s backers, 4%, to say they might choose a different candidate.
  • Among registered voters in Iowa including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, the candidates are tied with 46% each.  In early October, Braley, 45%, and Ernst, 44%, were also in a statistical dead heat.
  • Likely voters divide over their impressions of Ernst. 44% are favorable, and 44% are not, unchanged from a few weeks ago.
  • Braley’s favorability score is still upside down.  39% have a positive view of him, and 46% have a negative one.
  • When it comes to the key issue in deciding their vote for Congress, 19% of likely voters mention breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington followed by job creation and economic growth, 17%.  Social Security and Medicare receives 14% followed by health care with 12% and the deficit and government spending with 11%.  Military action against ISIS and immigration each receives 6%.  Four percent cite looking out for the interests of women.

Poll Points Governor:

  • Looking at the governor’s race in Iowa, Branstad, 59%, outpaces Hatch, 36%, by 23 points among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Branstad was ahead of Hatch by a similar 22 points earlier this month.
  • While Branstad, the Republican, garners 19% of Democrats likely to vote, Hatch, the Democrat, only receives 1% of Republican likely voters.  Among independent voters, Branstad, 62%, has more than double the support of Hatch, 29%
  • 63% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters, compared with 58% a few weeks ago, strongly support their choice of candidate for Iowa governor.  70% of Branstad’s supporters are firmly committed to him while only 52% of Hatch’s backers express a similar level of commitment.
  • Among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Branstad receives the support of 58% to 34% for Hatch.  Branstad previously held a 23 point lead over Hatch among registered voters statewide.
  • 58% of likely voters have a favorable view of Branstad, and 35% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  When it comes to Hatch’s favorability, 32% of likely voters have a positive impression of him, but 38% view him negatively.  Hatch is also not well-known to three in ten likely voters.
  • 35% of Iowa residents, compared with 39% earlier this month, approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/26: Colorado: Gardner and Udall in Dead Heat in Contest for U.S. Senate… Hickenlooper Edges Beauprez in Governor’s Race

In the race for U.S. Senate in Colorado, Republican Cory Gardner, 46%, and Democratic incumbent Mark Udall, 45%, are in a virtual tie among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Five percent of Colorado likely voters are undecided, and 2% of those with a candidate preference say they might vote differently.  Among likely voters in NBC News/Marist’s September poll, Gardner trailed Udall by 6 percentage points.

Independents likely to vote and gender play a role in how the race has changed.  Udall’s once 15 point lead among independents has shrunk to just 3 points.  And, the gender gap has widened with men as the driving force behind the gains for Gardner.  He now leads Udall among men by 15 points, up from 5 points.

Looking at the governor’s race in Colorado, Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper, 46%, is ahead of GOP challenger Bob Beauprez, 41%, by 5 points among Colorado likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have already voted.  Six percent are undecided, and 6% say they may vote differently.

Complete October 26, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Colorado

“To seal up the potential crack in the Democratic firewall for the U.S. Senate, Udall needs a big ground game,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He trails among those who have already voted by 12 points.”

 Poll Points U.S. Senate:

  • Gardner, 46%, and Udall, 45%, are neck and neck in the race for U.S. Senate among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early.  In September, Udall led 48% to 42% for Gardner.
  • Gardner leads Udall by 54% to 42% among early voters.  Udall has the support of 48% of likely voters who have not yet cast a ballot compared with 41% for Gardner.
  • Udall and Gardner still have strong support within their respective Democratic and Republican bases.  However, the race has tightened among independent voters likely to cast a ballot.  While Udall was up by 15 points among these voters in September, only 3 points separate Udall, 44%, and Gardner, 41%, now.
  • The gender gap has widened from 19 points in September to 26 points now.  Gardner currently has a 15 point advantage among men compared with 5 points previously.  Udall’s support among women has gone from a 14 point advantage a month ago to 11.
  • Although the sample size of Latinos likely to vote in Colorado in this survey is small, Udall, 48%, only edges Gardner, 44%, by 4 points among these voters.
  • 63% of Colorado likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate including early voters strongly support their choice of candidate, up from 58% in September.  Two percent report they might vote differently.  The proportion of Gardner’s supporters who are firmly committed to him has grown from 56% to 67%.  Those strongly in Udall’s camp remain unchanged at 60%.
  • 85% of likely voters with a candidate preference say, although there may be other candidates on the ballot for U.S. Senate, they are sticking with their choice.  Six percent may move to a different candidate, and 9% are unsure.
  • Among registered voters in Colorado including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early, Udall has 45% to 44% for Gardner.  Last month, Udall, 48%, was ahead of Gardner, 40%, by eight points.
  • Likely voters divide in their impressions of both senate candidates.  Udall is viewed favorably by 45% of the likely electorate and unfavorably by 46%.  45% of likely voters have a positive impression of Gardner, and 44% characterize him negatively.
  • 22% of likely voters cite job creation and economic growth as the most important issue in deciding their vote for Congress.  Breaking partisan gridlock in Washington, 17%, health care, 11%, and the deficit and government spending, 10%, follow.  Military action against ISIS garners 8%, and looking out for the interests of women, Social Security and Medicare, and immigration each receives 7%.  Those who cite jobs and the economy as their top concern are more likely to support Gardner, and those who mention gridlock in Washington are more likely to back Udall.

Poll Points Governor:

  • In the governor’s race in Colorado, Hickenlooper has 46% to 41% for Beauprez among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early.  Libertarian Matthew Hess garners 4%, and Green Party candidate Harry Hempy receives 2%.  Six percent are undecided.  In September’s NBC News/Marist Poll of Colorado, Hickenlooper edged Beauprez, 43% to 39%.
  • 60% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters strongly support their choice for governor of Colorado, up from 53% last month.  Six percent might vote differently.  While the proportion of likely voters who strongly support Hickenlooper, 63%, is little changed from September, 62%, 61% of Beauprez’s backers are now firmly committed to him, up from 50% previously.
  • Among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Hickenlooper has 46% to 38% for Beauprez.  Hess receives 4%, and Hempy has 3%.  In September, Hickenlooper was up by a similar 7 points over Beauprez.
  • More likely voters have a positive impression of Hickenlooper, 48%, than have a negative view of him, 44%.  The likely electorate divides over their impressions of Beauprez.  42% have a favorable view of him and 42% do not.
  • 52% of Coloradans, compared with 50% in September, disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  54% of likely voters also disapprove.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/26: Kansas: Orman and Roberts Neck and Neck in U.S. Senate Race… Davis and Brownback Closely Matched in Governor’s Contest

Independent Greg Orman, 45%, and Republican incumbent Pat Roberts, 44%, are in a fierce battle for U.S. Senate in Kansas among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.

Voters’ impressions of the candidates are crucial in this contest.  While Roberts is still unpopular, his favorable rating has improved.  In contrast, Orman’s negatives have gone up.

Breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington is the top concern of likely voters in Kansas followed by jobs.   Orman outpaces Roberts among likely voters who see ending gridlock as the most important issue in this election.  Roberts has a narrow advantage among those who are most concerned about jobs.

In the Kansas governor’s race, Democratic challenger Paul Davis has 45% to 44% for Republican incumbent Sam Brownback among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.

Complete October 26, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Kansas

“There’s nothing like the possibility of a U.S. Senator from Kansas caucusing with the Democrats to make some voters rethink their choice for Senate,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Orman’s initial double-digit lead over Roberts has evaporated, and the contest is now a tossup.”

Poll Points U.S. Senate:

  • Orman, 45%, and Roberts, 44%, are in a virtual dead heat in the race for U.S. Senate in Kansas among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Libertarian candidate Randall Batson receives 4%.  Orman, 48%, had a 10 point advantage over Roberts, 38%, among likely voters earlier this month.
  • Independent Orman, 60%, has a 34 percentage point lead over Roberts, 26%, among independents likely to vote, similar to his 30 point advantage in NBC News/Marist’s previous survey.
  • Roberts’ support among non-whites likely to vote has gone up to 35% from 24%, and his backing among white voters has also increased to 45% from 40%.
  • Although Roberts still trails Orman among women, his support among these likely voters is 41%, up from 34% previously.  Roberts also leads Orman by 6 points among men.  He previously trailed Orman by 2 points.
  • 53% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters strongly support their choice for U.S. Senate.  This is an increase from 43% in early October.  Looking at each of the candidate’s supporters, 57% of Orman’s backers are strongly committed to him while 52% of voters for Roberts are firmly in his corner.  But, 9% of Orman’s supporters say they may vote differently compared with only 4% of Roberts’ backers.
  • Among registered voters in Kansas including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Orman has 45% to 42% for Roberts.  Batson garners 4%.
  • Roberts’ favorable rating among likely voters, 43%, has improved from 37% a few weeks ago.
  • Orman’s negatives, 37%, have gone up from 26% among Kansas’ likely voters.
  • When it comes to the most important issue in deciding their vote for Congress, breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington, 26%, tops the list.  Job creation and economic growth, 17%, health care, 12%, Social Security and Medicare, 11%, military action against ISIS, 9%, and the deficit and government spending, 8%, follow.  Immigration, 5%, and looking out for the interests of women, 2%, round out the list.

Poll Points Governor:

  • Looking at the Kansas governor’s race, Davis has 45% to 44% for Brownback, among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Libertarian Keen Umbehr has 5%.  Davis and Brownback were closely matched, 44% to 43%, respectively, earlier this month.
  • 60% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters, compared with 55% previously, are firmly committed to their choice of candidate for governor.  Seven percent might vote differently.  62% of Brownback’s supporters and 60% of Davis’ backers are strongly committed to their candidate.
  • Among registered voters in Kansas including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Davis, 43%, and Brownback, 43%, tie.  Umbehr receives 6%.
  • A plurality of likely voters in the state continues to view Davis favorably, 43%, but he is still not well-defined.  He is not well-known to almost one in four likely voters, 23%.  Brownback’s favorable rating remains upside down, 42% to 50%.
  • A majority of Kansas residents, 55%, disapproves of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office while 33% approve.  Obama’s approval rating stood at 35% earlier this month.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables 

10/26: South Dakota: Rounds with Wide Lead in U.S. Senate Race… Daugaard Trounces Wismer in Governor’s Contest

October 26, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

In the race for U.S. Senate in South Dakota, Republican Mike Rounds, 43%, is out in front of Democrat Rick Weiland, 29%, and independent Larry Pressler, 16%, among likely voters including those who are undecided or have voted early.  A majority of likely voters who support Pressler, 56%, reports their second choice is Weiland, and most Weiland backers, 72%, say their backup candidate is Pressler.

Republican Governor Dennis Daugaard, 67%, outdistances his Democratic challenger and state legislator Susan Wismer, 28%, among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  With a favorable rating of 70%, Daugaard is popular among the likely electorate.  Wismer, however, is not well-known to a plurality of likely voters.

Complete October 26, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of South Dakota

“Rounds is benefitting from a multi-candidate field,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although Rounds has a double-digit lead, there are still undecided voters, and the possibility for some shuffling of support between Weiland’s and Pressler’s supporters.”

Poll Points U.S. Senate:

  • Rounds, 43%, leads Weiland, 29%, and Pressler, 16%, among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Independent Gordon Howie has the support of 3%, and 7% are undecided.
  • Looking at party, more than twice as many Democrats, 10%, support the Republican Rounds, than the proportion of Republicans, 4%, who back Weiland, the Democrat.  There is little consensus among independents likely to vote.  Rounds has 32%, 31% are for Pressler, and 22% for Weiland.
  • 63% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters are firmly committed to their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.  Similar proportions of Rounds’, 70%, and Weiland’s backers, 66%, are firmly in their respective candidate’s camp.  48% of Pressler’s supporters express a strong level of support to him.
  • 10% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they might vote differently come Election Day.  17% of Pressler’s backers, 8% of Weiland’s supporters, and 6% of Rounds’ backers might vote differently.
  • Among likely voters with a candidate preference excluding early voters, Pressler is the second choice candidate of 43%.  18% select Weiland while 10% choose Rounds.  Weiland is the second choice of a majority of Pressler’s backers, 56%. And, Pressler is the second choice of most of Weiland’s supporters, 72%.  The plurality of Rounds’ backers, 44%, says Pressler is their second choice.
  • Majorities of likely voters have a favorable impression of Rounds, 52%, and a positive view of Pressler, 52%.  46% think well of Weiland.
  • Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Rounds, 43%, leads Weiland, 28%, and Pressler, 16%.  Four percent are for Howie.
  • When it comes to the issue crucial in deciding their vote for Congress, 25% of likely voters cite breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington.  Social Security and Medicare, 15%, the deficit and government spending, 14%, health care, 13%, and job creation and economic growth, 12%, also rate.  Seven percent mention military action against ISIS, while immigration is noted by 3%.  Looking out for the interests of women receives 2%.

Poll Points Governor:

  • In the contest for South Dakota governor, Daugaard, 67%, outpaces Wismer, 28%, among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.
  • Most Republican likely voters rally behind Daugaard.  However, Wismer only receives 68% of Democrats likely to cast a ballot.  29% of Democrats cross party lines and support Daugaard.
  • 67% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters strongly support their choice of candidate for South Dakota governor.  69% of Daugaard supporters and 61% of Wismer’s backers say they will not waver in their support for their candidate.  Five percent of likely voters with a candidate preference might vote differently.
  • Daugaard, 67%, has a commanding lead over Wismer, 26%, among registered voters in South Dakota including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.
  • Daugaard enjoys a high favorable rating, 70%.  Wismer is unfamiliar to 43% of likely voters.  Wismer’s favorable score is 31%, and her negative rating is 25%.
  • 32% of adults in South Dakota approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  A majority, 56%, disapproves.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/26: Arkansas: Cotton and Pryor in Tight Match in U.S. Senate Contest… Hutchinson and Ross Closely Paired in Governor’s Race

October 26, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Republican Tom Cotton, 45%, and Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor, 43%, are in a competitive contest in the race for U.S. Senate in Arkansas among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Seven percent are undecided, and 8% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they might vote differently.

Looking at the dynamics of the race, while support divides along party lines, Cotton has a narrow lead among independents who are likely to vote.  There is also a 26 point gender gap.  Cotton has a 15 point advantage among men likely to cast a ballot.  Pryor is up 11 over Cotton among women likely to vote.

In the race for Arkansas governor, Republican incumbent Asa Hutchinson receives 47% to 44% for Democrat Mike Ross.  Voters align by party.  Among independents likely to vote, Hutchinson has a 6 point edge over Ross.

Complete October 26, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Arkansas

“The good news for the Democrats is that incumbent Mark Pryor remains competitive in a state Mitt Romney carried by 24 points,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, twice the number of Pryor’s backers, compared with Cotton’s supporters, say they might vote differently, and Pryor has higher negatives than Cotton.  In fact, Pryor’s rating, unlike Cotton’s, is upside down.” 

Poll Points U.S. Senate:

  • Cotton, 45%, and Pryor, 43%, are neck and neck in the U.S. Senate contest among likely voters in Arkansas including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Green Party candidate Mark Swaney receives 3%, and Libertarian Nathan LaFrance garners 2%.  Seven percent are undecided.  In NBC News/Marist’s September survey, Cotton was ahead of Pryor by 5 points among likely voters.
  • Both Cotton and Pryor have solid backing from their respective party’s base.  Cotton has 43% to 37% for Pryor among independents likely to vote.
  • Cotton, 51%, has the advantage over Pryor, 36%, among men who are likely to vote.   Pryor, 49%, leads Cotton, 38%, among women.
  • 59% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate, compared with 52% in September.  Eight percent of likely voters with a candidate preference might vote differently.  When it comes to the strength of support each candidate receives from their backers, Pryor previously had the edge over Cotton.  However, the proportion of Cotton’s backers who are firmly committed to him has grown from 51% to 61% while those who strongly support Pryor remain unchanged at 58%.
  • Cotton’s favorable rating, 46%, is little changed from the 44% he received in September.  Pryor’s negatives have gone up to 49% from 42%.
  • Among registered voters in Arkansas including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Pryor has 43% to 42% for Cotton.  Swaney has the support of 3%, and 2% back LaFrance.  Last month, Cotton and Pryor were tied at 41% among registered voters.
  • Job creation and economic growth and Social Security and Medicare, each with 18%, top the list of issues most important to likely voters in deciding for whom to support for Congress.  Breaking partisan gridlock in Washington, 16%, the deficit and government spending, 11%, health care, 10%, and military action against ISIS, 8%, follow.  Immigration, 3%, and looking out for the interests of women, 3%, are also important but for fewer voters.

Poll Points Governor:

  • Turning to the governor’s race in Arkansas, Hutchinson, 47%, and Ross, 44%, are competitive among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Libertarian Frank Gilbert and Green Party candidate Josh Drake each has 2%.  Last month, Hutchinson, 48%, was ahead of Ross, 39%, by 9 points.
  • Candidate support runs true to party lines.  Hutchinson, 45%, has a 6 point edge over Ross, 39%, among independents likely to vote.  Hutchinson was ahead of Ross by 14 points among independents last month.
  • 62% of likely voters with a candidate preference including those who voted early are firmly committed to their choice of candidate for Arkansas governor.  Seven percent of voters with a candidate preference might vote differently.  Ross, 64%, and Hutchinson, 61%, both have strong support from their respective backers.
  • Ross, 44%, and Hutchinson, 43%, are neck and neck among registered voters in Arkansas including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Three percent are for Drake, and 2% are for Gilbert.
  • 51% of likely voters have a favorable view of HutchinsonRoss’ positive rating, 46%, is also higher than his negative score.
  • Only 31% of Arkansans approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office, similar to the 29% job approval rating he received in September.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

 

10/9: Too Close to Call? Not This Time

October 9, 2014 by  
Filed under Barbara Carvalho, Featured

It all came down to Buster Posey vs. Yasiel Puig, and it had nothing to do with the baseball playoffs.  No, it had everything to do with whether I would win this year’s (the 64th) season of the 300 Club.  The group that is made up of around 100 baseball junkies who each year pick ten players and three alternates from the entire major leagues as their roster for the season.

Having trailed miserably for much of the season, I surged in September owing in large part to batters like the Tigers Paul Goldschmidt who failed to qualify.  Although I have mixed feelings about Robinson Cano, (he cost me the 300 Club championship a few years back on the final day of the season, not to mention his deserting my Yankees for the West Coast this year), he made, along with Justin Morneau, for wonderful alternates.

At approximately 3:50 pm on game 162, I took a narrow lead when Daniel Murphy of the Mets (of all teams) finally got a hit in his last AB of the season.  Everyone was now accounted for with the exception of my chief competitor’s pick of Posey and my last gasp, Puig.  Would my .0003 lead hold up? I could barely stand the tension.  It was like watching Eli Manning lead my favorite football Giants down the field (twice) to win the Super Bowl, or waiting for the exit polls to confirm the pre-election estimates that I’m responsible for at The Marist Poll.

The 4pm games started badly for me when the Giants Posey belted a home run in his first AB… Would Puig hold the line?  Would Posey ruin my season?

Posey ended up being taken out of the game after going 2 for 4, closing the gap ever so slightly.  Puig went 0-3 but because of rounding only dropped 1 point for his lack of production.  Final result: I won by .0001 of a point.  Much closer than the Bush-Gore battle in Florida in 2000.

To what do I owe my success?  Does my career as a pollster improve my estimates as a predictor of baseball averages? Or, is it vice-versa?

I’ve pondered this for the better part of the week.  And, with the mid-term elections rapidly approaching, I feel my Marist Poll colleagues and our NBC News partners would like me to arrive at a definitive conclusion.

Here goes… I’m clearly a numbers person and enjoy compiling stats in both arenas.  Early trends also are key in baseball and politics.  I’m not required to pick the 300 Club players until roughly a month into the season and everyone knows there are plenty of pre-election polls to establish trends.  Both fields are also the subject of number-crunching aggregators.

There is, however, one startling difference between baseball and election prognostications.  With the 300 Club, there is no margin of error.  Thankfully, winners and losers in elections don’t require .0001 poll precision.

10/6: Clinton Outpaces Democratic Opponents, Bests GOP in General Election Bid

October 6, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the early favorite in the 2016 presidential contest.  Clinton leads her potential opponents for the Democratic nomination by more than four-to-one among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents nationally.  Looking at her general election prospects, Clinton receives the support of, at least, a majority of registered voters in hypothetical matchups against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

On the Republican side, a front-runner has not emerged from the list of potential candidates seeking the GOP’s nomination in 2016.  Bush receives 15% among Republicans and Republican leaning independents nationally.  The only other candidates to achieve double-digit support are Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, and Chris Christie.

Complete October 6, 2014 McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Right now, the 2016 election is all about Hillary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Without a strong Democratic opponent for the nomination and a fragmented GOP field, she’s the early front-runner.”

Poll points:

  • Clinton, 64%, outpaces Biden, 15%, among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents in the race for the 2016 Democratic nomination.  Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has 8%, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 4%, and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley receives 2%.  Former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia garners 1%.
  • Clinton leads Jeb Bush, 53% to 42%, among registered voters nationally.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in August, Clinton was ahead of Bush, 48% to 41% (Trend).
  • Against Rand Paul, Clinton has the support of 52% of registered voters to 43% for Paul.  Previously, Clinton was ahead of Paul, 48% to 42% (Trend).
  • 51% of registered voters support Clinton while 42% are for Chris Christie.  In mid-August, Clinton received 47% to 41% for Christie (Trend).
  • There continues to be no clear front-runner in the race for the 2016 Republican nomination. Bush has 15% to 13% each for Paul and Ryan.  Christie garners 12% while Texas Governor Rick Perry has 7%.  Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, 6%, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, 4%, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, 4%, follow.  Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, 3%, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 3%, round out the list.  21% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents nationally are undecided.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

10/5: North Carolina: Hagan Edges Tillis in Competitive U.S. Senate Race

October 5, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan is trying to fend off her Republican challenger and state legislator Thom Tillis in the race for U.S. Senate.  Among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early or by absentee ballot, Hagan receives 44% to 40% for Tillis.

There is a wide gender gap in the contest.  Hagan carries women by 19 points and Tillis outpaces her among men by 13 points.

Hagan’s supporters are more firmly committed to her, 59%, than are Tillis’ backers, 45%, the majority of whom are motivated to vote against Hagan rather than being positive about him.  Also of note, both candidates have high negative ratings among likely voters statewide.

North Carolina residents have a grim view of national politics.  Nearly half are displeased with the performance of President Barack Obama.  Congressional Republicans and Democrats are also viewed negatively by, at least, a majority of residents statewide.  Close to seven in ten North Carolina adults have a dismal view of the direction the nation is heading.

Complete October 5, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina

“Gender and marital status are driving forces in this contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Not only are there big differences between men and women in their choice for the Senate, but Hagan has nearly a three-to-one advantage over Tillis among single women, and Tillis outdistances her by 23 points among married men.”

Poll points:

  • Hagan, 44%, and Tillis, 40%, are locked in a tight contest for U.S. Senate in North Carolina among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have voted early or by absentee ballot.  Libertarian Sean Haugh receives 7% of the vote, and 9% are undecided.
  • A partisan divide exists among likely voters with 85% of Democrats supporting Hagan and 81% of Republicans backing Tillis.  Independents likely to vote divide with 40% for Tillis and 36% for Hagan.  Haugh garners 12% of independents who are likely to vote, and 12% are undecided.
  • The gender gap is wide.  49% of men likely to vote support Tillis compared with 36% for Hagan.  Among women, Hagan has 51% to 32% for Tillis.
  • 50% of likely voters with a candidate preference in North Carolina strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.  38% somewhat back their selection, and 10% might vote differently.  Looking at each candidate’s intensity of support, nearly six in ten Hagan backers, 59%, are firmly committed to her.  45% of Tillis supporters report a similar level of commitment.
  • 50% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they support their pick for U.S. Senate because they are against the other candidates in the race while 45% made their selection because they feel positively about their choice.  While 57% of Hagan’s voters are inspired by their support for her, 58% of Tillis backers are motivated by their dislike for his opponents.
  • Among registered voters in North Carolina including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot, 42% support Hagan to 37% for Tillis and 8% for Haugh.  12% are undecided.
  • The campaign has taken its toll on voters’ impressions of both Hagan and Tillis.  48% of likely voters have a negative view of Hagan, while 42% have a favorable one.  Tillis’ negative score is comparable to Hagan’s rating.  47% have an unfavorable view of Tillis while 36% have a positive one.

Obama Approval Rating at 39%… Thumbs Down for Democrats and GOP in Congress

North Carolina residents have a grim view of how elected officials in Washington are performing their jobs.  Less than four in ten think President Obama is handling his jobwell, and, at least, a majority of adults statewide believe the Republicansand Democratsin Congress are falling short.  Nearly seven in ten also report the nation is on the wrong track.

On the state level, a plurality of North Carolina adults views Governor Pat McCrory’s job performance positively.

Poll points:

Nearly Half Down on Health Care Law

The Affordable Care Act is not being embraced by close to half of adults in North Carolina.  In fact, 42% strongly believe Obamacare is a bad idea.

Poll points:

  • 48% of adults statewide think the new health care law is a bad idea.  Included here are 42% who strongly have this opinion.  31% say the health care law is a good idea including 24% who strongly maintain this position.  20% have no opinion or are unsure.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

Next Page »