A $2 Bet May Pay Off on Gillibrand
May 20, 2009 by Lee Miringoff
Filed under Blog, Featured, Lee Miringoff
What’s worse than being an appointed senator, selected by an unelected governor? Perhaps, it’s being an appointed senator, selected by a very unpopular, unelected governor. Want to turn the crank again? How about an appointed senator, selected by a very unpopular, unelected governor following a messy selection process…and you can throw in Caroline Kennedy, pro-gun control views, and Upstate New York status for extra effect. Doesn’t this spell political trouble?
Kirsten Gillibrand
The latest Marist Poll of New Yorkers confirms how all this translates electorally. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s approval rating is rock bottom at 19%. How have things changed since she relocated from the House to the Senate? Not much. In Marist’s March Poll, 18% liked the job Senator Gillibrand was doing. As her “unsures” dropped from 50% then to 43% in Marist’s May survey, her approval rating clearly did not materially improve.
Should Senator Gillibrand be discounted from the 2010 senatorial horserace? Not by any means. Odds may be long but she has a better chance than the 50 to 1 upset winner in the Kentucky Derby and certainly, a filly winning the Preakness for the first time since 1924 cannot be overlooked. Here’s why.
If you allow me one more equestrian metaphor, reference the Breeder’s Guide. Gillibrand is no political novice. She has strong ties to the Albany political machine. Also, she demonstrated excellent vote getting ability in winning a congressional seat in territory typically hostile to Democrats…and then was re-elected overwhelmingly. She’s a proven fund-raiser…with a high energy campaigning style. Senator Schumer is firmly in her corner. Former President Bill Clinton has held a fund-raiser for her. The White House has convinced one of her potential primary opponents, Congressman Steve Israel, to rethink his 2010 plans. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer has also decided not to throw his hat into the ring. She has garnered the endorsement of NARAL. Most importantly, in this very blue state, no GOPer has stepped forward despite poll numbers that are encouraging to former Governor George Pataki.
So, what should be Senator Gillibrand’s biggest fear to winning this seat in her own right? A primary challenge from the left could disrupt her plans. But, it appears that individual must come to the table with mega-bucks. Traditional fund-raising doors may already be closing for such an effort.
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Political polls 18 months prior to an election are worthless. Senator Gillbrand is all over this state, meeting constituents and winning over new friends and supporters. She has become a champion of single parents, veterans, and clean drinking water and is working hard on job creation and a public option for health care insurance. By the time her re-election rolls around, she’ll be as popular as she is in her old congressional district: an amazing 68% approval rating! She is a hard worker and as bright as they come. New Yorkers will gradually realize how lucky we are to have her in the US Senate.
But what could be better; a bright young mother who is supported by President Obama, Hillary Clinton, President Bill Clinton, Senator Schumer, Jay Jacobs and an ever growing list?
These polls come out every 10 minutes. Since taking office, Gillibrand has been criss-crossing the State, proposing legislation, meeting with new constituent groups, and fighting to bring stimulus funds to NY. It’s only been four months, and people do not pay attention in a non-election year. I live in her former District, and she does not enjoy that high approval rating for nothing. She is extremely accessible, transparent, intelligent, and dedicated. When the rest of the State realizes this, those numbers will shoot up too.
Gillibrand is a flip flopper with no values and no core and people see that and why she is polling horribly. She was a gun nut and now she’s not. She was a closed borders person on immigration and now she’s not. She has no beliefs. She will lose. People are not blind. They she is a phony who must be defeated for reelection either in the primary or general.
Sooner or later, and probably sooner, polls will start picking up an increase in Gillibrand’s support.
She’s been working very hard to get out across the state, and gotten overwhelmingly positive reviews for that.
The more people know her, the more people like her.
And more people are finding out about her every day.
[...] pollster Lee Miringoff thinks Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is a good bet for [...]
How quickly we forget. When Hillary Clinton first announced in 1999, the pundits and pollsters all said she could never win, that she would never be able to form coalitions and get support upstate and in the suburbs. Well, the pundits and pollsters were way off, and the more voters got to meet Hillary, the more popular she became and the greater her support from all segments of New York.
The same is true for Kirsten Gillibrand. And like Hillary, she is smart, funny, hardworking, caring, thoughtful, open minded, and tough.
The pundits and pollsters, and high cost political consultants will benefit from a primary, but the rest of us are glad to support a progressive, effective young legislator who is reaching out to her new constituents, listening and learning in order to be a powerful advocate for all New Yorkers.
“But what could be better; a bright young mother who is supported by President Obama, Hillary Clinton, President Bill Clinton, Senator Schumer, Jay Jacobs and an ever growing list?”
I have to agree with you, great point!
Also, nice article
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