9/6: Trump Clear GOP Leader, as Bush and Walker Plummet in Iowa and New Hampshire; Clinton Stumbles, and Sanders Emerges in Democratic Contest

September 6, 2015 by  
Filed under Election 2016, Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

In the 2016 race for the White House, businessman Donald Trump leads his Republican rivals in the early caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Trump has improved his standing among potential Republican voters in both crucial GOP contests.  In Iowa, Trump, 29%, leads the crowded GOP field, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, 22%, assumes second place.  Dr. Carson is the favorite “second choice” among potential GOP voters.  Trump, 28%, also takes the top spot in New Hampshire where he outpaces Ohio Governor John Kasich, 12%, and Dr. Carson, 11%, by double digits among the state’s potential Republican electorate.  Carson is also the preferred “second choice” in New Hampshire.

However, the picture is bleaker for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.  Walker, who topped the Iowa leaderboard in the July NBC News/Marist Poll with 19%, now receives only single-digit support, 5%, as does Bush, 6%, who placed third in that previous survey with 12%.  In New Hampshire, support for Bush and Walker has also fallen among the potential GOP electorate.

On the Democratic side, the race for the presidential nomination has undergone a major upheaval.  While former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Sanders by 11 points, 48% to 37%, among the potential Democratic electorate in Iowa, Clinton’s lead has narrowed from 29 points in July.  The tables have turned for Clinton in New Hampshire where Sanders has surpassed her, 49% to 38%.  Clinton previously had a 13 point lead over Sanders.

What would happen if Vice President Joe Biden decides to enter the race?  Clinton and Sanders maintain their respective leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Biden places third.  However, in Iowa, Biden has doubled his support, 20% from 10%, since the previous NBC News/Marist Poll in the state.  His support is also up to 16% from 12% in New Hampshire.

And, looking at the general election, Clinton now loses to Bush in both states, trails Trump in Iowa, and runs evenly with him in New Hampshire.  In contrast, Vice President Joe Biden is more competitive against Bush and leads Trump in both states.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“There’s been a massive shakeup in both parties, in both states,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “It’s been a summer of surprises with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders sitting in the front car of the rollercoaster.”

Poll points:

  • Trump is outpacing his competitors for the Republican nomination across the board.  He runs best among Tea Party identifiers, independents, voters without a college education, and men.
  • Carson has made major inroads in Iowa.  He has catapulted to second place and runs competitively with Trump among white evangelical Christians and conservative voters.  He leads Trump in Iowa, 27% to 22%, among college educated voters.  In New Hampshire, Carson and Kasich have nearly doubled their support from the previous July survey.
  • Bush and Walker have seen their support in each state fade.  Bush is down to single digits, overall, and among most key groups in each state.  Walker’s support has collapsed in both states.  In Iowa, his support dropped from 19% in July to 5% now, and from 12% to 4% in New Hampshire.
  • Clinton now trails Sanders in New Hampshire, 38% to 49%.  Although Clinton still carries Democrats and women by 7 points, Sanders leads by 36 points among independents, 32 points among men and people under 45, and 15 points among liberals.  In Iowa, Clinton’s lead has narrowed from 29 points in July to 11 points currently.  Although the slippage has been modest among Democrats, her support among independents and moderates has plummeted.
  • Among women, while Clinton outpaced Sanders by 25 points in New Hampshire in July, she now only has a 7 point edge.  Her lead among women voters in Iowa has narrowed from 47 points to 23.

Complete September 6, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Iowa and New Hampshire

Complete September 6, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Tables of Iowa

Complete September 6, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire 

Trump and Sanders Receive Boost in Favorable Ratings

Majorities of potential Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have a positive impression of Trump, a dramatic shift from July.  While potential GOP voters also perceive Bush and Walker positively, Bush’s negatives are up in New Hampshire, and Walker’s negatives are on the rise in Iowa.

Looking at the Democratic candidates vying for their party’s nomination, they are viewed positively by the potential Democratic electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire.  However, Sanders’ positive ratings have improved.  And, while Clinton is still well-received in Iowa, she has experienced a decline in her favorable rating.

“It’s less the case that Clinton, Bush, and Walker’s negative ratings have skyrocketed than Sanders and Trump have struck a chord with voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As a result, they score much better on the ballot question.”

Poll points:

  • In Iowa, 58% of the Iowa potential Republican electorate has a favorable view of Trump.  In July, potential GOP voters were divided in their opinion of him, 45% positive and 44% negative.  In New Hampshire, impressions of Trump have gone from upside down in July, 39% positive and 53% negative, to 56% favorable and 39% unfavorable among potential GOP voters.
  • Although Walker’s support on the ballot question has considerably declined, a majority of potential Republican voters in Iowa, 52%, still have a positive opinion of him.  His negative score though has inched up to 17% from 10% in the state.  Voters’ impressions of him are little changed in New Hampshire.
  • Bush has also seen only a modest change in how voters view him.  49% of potential Republican voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire now have a favorable opinion of him.  This compares with 51% in Iowa and 56% in New Hampshire just two months ago.
  • On the Democratic side, Biden is favorably viewed by 74% of potential Democratic voters in Iowa.  This compares with 67% who have this impression of Clinton, and 65% who share this view of Sanders.  Clinton’s positive score has declined from 74% while Sanders favorable rating has increased from 54%.
  • Sanders, 79%, up from 65% in July, receives the highest favorable rating among the potential Democratic electorate in New Hampshire.  Biden, 76%, and Clinton, 69%, are also viewed positively in the Granite State.

 

 

 

 

 

Biden Runs Better than Clinton against GOP Rivals in Potential General Election Tosses

When paired against Bush or Trump in hypothetical general election matchups, Biden is more competitive against the Republicans than is Clinton.

Poll points:

  • When matched against Hillary Clinton, Bush leads Clinton among registered voters in, both, Iowa and New Hampshire.  In Iowa, Bush, 50%, leads Clinton, 39%, by 11 points.  He edges Clinton, 48% to 43%, in New Hampshire.
  • In Iowa, Trump, 48%, is ahead of Clinton, 43%, by 5 points among the statewide electorate.  However, the two are competitive, 46% for Clinton and 45% for Trump, among registered voters in New Hampshire.
  • Biden is more competitive than Clinton against Bush in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Bush receives 46% to 44% for Biden among Iowa registered voters.  In New Hampshire, Bush has 46% to 45% for Biden.
  • Against Trump, Biden is ahead in both states.  Among Iowa’s registered voters, Biden has the support of 49% to 45% for Trump.  In New Hampshire, Biden garners 50% to 41% for Trump.

On the Issues

The potential Democratic and Republican electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire express opposite views on how a candidate’s position on certain issues may impact their vote.

Poll points:

  • When it comes to amending the U.S. Constitution to change birthright so children of undocumented immigrants are not automatically granted citizenship, pluralities of potential Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire would be more likely to back a candidate who supports such a position.
  • Majorities of the potential GOP electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire would be less likely to support a candidate who favors a pathway to citizenship for undocumented or illegal immigrants.  And, a plurality in Iowa and nearly half of those in New Hampshire would be less likely to support a candidate who is for Common Core education.
  • At least a majority of the potential Democratic electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.  And, a majority of potential Democratic voters in Iowa and nearly half of those in New Hampshire would be more likely to support a candidate who favors Common Core education standards.
  • The potential Democratic electorates in Iowa, 59%, and New Hampshire, 66%, would be less likely to back a candidate who supports amending the U.S. Constitution to change birthright so children of undocumented immigrants are not automatically granted citizenship.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Senate Race in New Hampshire Competitive

Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan are in a close contest in the race for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire.

Poll points:

  • Ayotte, 48%, and Hassan, 45%, are in a virtual dead heat among registered voters in New Hampshire.  Hassan has gained ground on Ayotte.  In July’s survey, Ayotte was ahead of Hassan, 50% to 42%.

Obama Approval Rating Upside Down in Iowa and New Hampshire

Majorities of adults in Iowa and New Hampshire disapprove of how President Barack Obama is doing his job in office.  Iowa Governor Terry Branstad and New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan receive high marks from residents in their respective states although Governor Hassan’s rating has declined since an earlier poll in July.

  • 52% of Iowa adults disapprove of how President Obama is performing in office while 40% approve.  The president’s job approval rating remains upside down in the state.  In July, 49% thought Mr. Obama’s job performance was lacking while 43% thought well of how he was doing in office.
  • In New Hampshire, 42% approve of the president’s job performance while 52% do not.  The president received nearly identical scores in July.
  • 54% of Iowa residents approve of how Governor Branstad is performing in office.  50% held this view earlier in the summer.
  • 50% of adults in New Hampshire, down from 56% in July, approve of how Maggie Hassan is doing her job.

Marist Poll Methodology for Iowa

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables for Iowa

Marist Poll Methodology for New Hampshire

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables for New Hampshire

Comments

41 Responses to “9/6: Trump Clear GOP Leader, as Bush and Walker Plummet in Iowa and New Hampshire; Clinton Stumbles, and Sanders Emerges in Democratic Contest”

  1. rich korn on September 6th, 2015 1:22 pm

    is there a reason you don’t show poll results for a head to head comparison between sanders and trump?

    also, where can i find comments by other people?

  2. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa - DailyScene.comDailyScene.com on September 6th, 2015 1:56 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  3. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa | News Agency on September 6th, 2015 2:07 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  4. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa | EuroMarket News on September 6th, 2015 2:10 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  5. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa - LiberalVoiceLiberalVoice — Your source for everything about liberals and progressives! — News and tweets about everything liberals and progressives on September 6th, 2015 2:19 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  6. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa | Interesting News on September 6th, 2015 3:02 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  7. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa | News Agency on September 6th, 2015 3:03 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  8. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa | Omaha Sun Times on September 6th, 2015 3:17 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  9. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa | Celebrity List on September 6th, 2015 3:50 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  10. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa - Chicago Times Post on September 6th, 2015 3:58 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  11. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa | Papa Niang on September 6th, 2015 4:02 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  12. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa | Las Vegas Times Post on September 6th, 2015 4:07 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  13. Third Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, Competitive In Iowa - Kansas City Sun Times on September 6th, 2015 6:25 pm

    [...] ahead of democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and gained in Iowa, according to an NBC/Marist poll released [...]

  14. hugh on September 6th, 2015 11:17 pm

    Why did you omit Bernie Sanders from the presidential polls? Yet you included Biden? – Bernie is the NH frontrunner and Biden is not in the race.

    Weird.

  15. Scott Walker needs second debate to go better than first | coreofnews on September 7th, 2015 9:50 am

    [...] numbers, says pollster and political scientist Charles Franklin of the Marquette Law School. (In an Iowa poll released Sunday by NBC News/Marist, Walker went from leading the field at 19% in July to a fourth-place tie at [...]

  16. Bush Survey Numbers Plummet to Single Figures in Iowa, N.H. - 2 Real News on September 7th, 2015 2:50 pm

    [...] College’s survey summary kept in mind, “Trump has enhanced his standing amongst possible Republican voters in both vital GOP [...]

  17. ‘Kasich Works,’ But For Who? Certainly Not Labor on September 7th, 2015 4:20 pm

    [...] After spending more than any other candidate including declared Democratic candidates to boost his low name recognition, Gov. Kasich’s national polling remains among the lowest of the lot at about four percent for candidates that have more than zero percent, according to an aggregate poll of national polls. Meanwhile, his rise to second place in polls focused only on New Hampshire, which still puts him way behind league leader Donald Trump, shows big spending by in a small state by Mr. Kasich can pay off, as the latest Marist Poll indicates. [...]

  18. Candy Rumfelt on September 7th, 2015 6:48 pm

    Would appreciate if you would update your 9/6 posting with Dr. Ben Carson’s match-ups as well, if you have more information please report it! Millions of Americans will be very grateful. Thank you, and God bless the USA!

  19. Sheryl Leestma on September 7th, 2015 6:58 pm

    You need to speak out about Ben Carson!! HE IS THE MAN!!

  20. Answering the 10 big questions that faced Florida politics at the beginning of Summer - Florida Politics on September 7th, 2015 8:01 pm

    [...] really doesn’t matter now. Despite nine-figures worth of campaign money behind him, Bush is struggling to remain in the top-tier of presidential candidates. Bush’s biggest challenge is how to operate in the same ecosystem as Trump. As Chuck Todd [...]

  21. Stephanie on September 7th, 2015 8:16 pm

    Why is Ben Carson being ignored in your polls?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  22. Pat on September 7th, 2015 8:57 pm

    With 22% of the potential votes in Iowa’s GOP primary, why is your coverage of Dr. Ben Carson lacking in potential match-ups with other Republicans and Democrats?

    http://hotair.com/…/ben-carson-seems-to-be-missing-from-so…/

    Would appreciate if you would update your 9/6 posting with Dr. Ben Carson’s match-ups as well, if you have more information please report it! Millions of Americans will be very grateful. Thank you, and God bless the USA!

  23. Janet Parrott on September 7th, 2015 9:18 pm

    What’s up with your apparent push for Jeb Bush? You lose all credibility. He isn’t even in the race.

  24. Donna Galazka on September 7th, 2015 9:55 pm

    With 22% of the potential votes in Iowa’s GOP primary, why is your coverage of Dr. Ben Carson lacking in potential match-ups with other Republicans and Democrats?

    http://hotair.com/…/ben-carson-seems-to-be-missing-from-so…/

    Would appreciate if you would update your 9/6 posting with Dr. Ben Carson’s match-ups as well, if you have more information please report it! Millions of Americans will be very grateful. Thank you, and God bless the USA!

  25. Sally Weber on September 7th, 2015 10:40 pm

    With 22% of the potential votes in Iowa’s GOP primary, why is your coverage of Dr. Ben Carson lacking in potential match-ups with other Republicans and Democrats?
    http://hotair.com/…/ben-carson-seems-to-be-missing-from-so…/
    Would appreciate if you would update your 9/6 posting with Dr. Ben Carson’s match-ups as well, if you have more information please report it! Millions of Americans will be very grateful. Thank you, and God bless the USA!

  26. EDITH BEHM on September 8th, 2015 12:47 am

    I feel that you are biased when it comes to reporting the rise of Dr. Carson. It’s not that Mr. Trump would not be 100% better than the democrats, but I prefer Dr. Carson’s ideas more. I also expressed my opinion to Fox News which is doing the same thing. Dr. Carson is giving concrete solutions that I like, but Trump skirts the issues by saying “We are going to love everything he does” without telling us how he is going to implement all his grandiose ideas. Bill O’Reilly did the best job of trying to pin him down, but Trump thinks that his billionaire friends are going to solve these problems . He also has toned down some of his rhetoric regarding women but I think we know that he only cares about their physical beauty rather that their intelligence and character. He also did a horrible thing calling John McClain a “loser”. That man suffered horribly defending his country, while Trump avoided the war in Vietnam by slick means.

  27. Alaska News Roundup for September 8 | Inside Alaska on September 9th, 2015 12:53 am

    [...] latest NBC News/Marist poll was sure to have made the Clinton campaign weep: Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT-I) now has a commanding [...]

  28. Rand Paul plans to run TV ad during next GOP debate – Politico on September 9th, 2015 4:45 pm

    [...] as Paul tries to stay competitive despite lackluster polling in both states. Recent NBC News/Marist polls in Iowa and New Hampshire showed Paul at just 5 percent in each state, trailing a number of his [...]

  29. Answering the 10 big questions that faced Florida politics at the beginning of Summer - SaintPetersBlog on September 9th, 2015 9:06 pm

    [...] that really doesn’t matter now. Despite nine-figures worth of campaign money behind him, Bush is struggling to remain in the top-tier of presidential candidates. Bush’s biggest challenge is how to operate in the same ecosystem as Trump. As Chuck Todd [...]

  30. Sunburn – The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics – September 8 - SaintPetersBlog on September 9th, 2015 9:06 pm

    [...] really doesn’t matter now. Despite nine-figures worth of campaign money behind him, Bush is struggling to remain in the top-tier of presidential candidates. Bush’s biggest challenge is how to operate in the same ecosystem as Trump. As Chuck Todd [...]

  31. Playing now, the Ben Carson show – Yahoo Politics on September 10th, 2015 6:39 am

    [...] political neophyte has now surged to the top of the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he’s defying the expectations of pundits and establishing himself as a serious threat for [...]

  32. Playing now, the Ben Carson show – Yahoo Politics | Politics Area on September 10th, 2015 7:00 am

    [...] political neophyte has now surged to the top of the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he’s defying the expectations of pundits and establishing himself as a serious threat for [...]

  33. Playing now, the Ben Carson show | ChangeNaija_Trends on September 10th, 2015 8:11 pm

    [...] political neophyte has now surged to the top of the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he’s defying the expectations of pundits and establishing himself as a serious threat for [...]

  34. HUFFPOLLSTER: Remembering Legendary Pollster Andrew Kohut - DailyScene.comDailyScene.com on September 11th, 2015 8:57 am

    [...] -Bernie Sanders continues to look competitive in New Hampshire and Iowa [HuffPost, NBC/Marist] [...]

  35. HUFFPOLLSTER: Remembering Legendary Pollster Andrew Kohut | News Agency on September 11th, 2015 9:02 am

    [...] -Bernie Sanders continues to look competitive in New Hampshire and Iowa [HuffPost, NBC/Marist] [...]

  36. HUFFPOLLSTER: Remembering Legendary Pollster Andrew Kohut - LiberalVoiceLiberalVoice — Your source for everything about liberals and progressives! — News and tweets about everything liberals and progressives on September 11th, 2015 9:03 am

    [...] -Bernie Sanders continues to look competitive in New Hampshire and Iowa [HuffPost, NBC/Marist] [...]

  37. HUFFPOLLSTER: Remembering Legendary Pollster Andrew Kohut | on September 11th, 2015 9:37 am

    [...] -Bernie Sanders continues to look competitive in New Hampshire and Iowa [HuffPost, NBC/Marist] [...]

  38. If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too – FiveThirtyEight | News Feed on September 12th, 2015 7:31 am

    [...] but we see him doing much better in Iowa than in New Hampshire. This weekend, for instance, a new Marist poll had Carson in second place in Iowa, with 22 percent, and in third place in New Hampshire, with [...]

  39. If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too – FiveThirtyEight | DiskonDiaper.Com on September 12th, 2015 7:49 am

    [...] but we see him doing much better in Iowa than in New Hampshire. This weekend, for instance, a new Marist poll had Carson in second place in Iowa, with 22 percent, and in third place in New Hampshire, with [...]

  40. Sanders Continues To Cause Trouble For Clinton, Biden Could Cause More on November 2nd, 2015 7:35 pm

    [...] primary, and the Vermont senator is also gaining on Clinton in Iowa, according to NBC News/Marist polls released on [...]

  41. New Hampshire Governor Hassan To Run For Senate Against Kelly Ayotte on November 2nd, 2015 7:59 pm

    [...] Hassan running close with Ayotte in early matchups; Ayotte had a 3-point lead in an NBC News/Marist poll in early September. But Ayotte starts with a $5 million head start: The Republican will have raised [...]

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