9/27: Obama and Romney Battle it Out in Nevada

September 27, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

Among likely voters in Nevada including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 49% support President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden while 47% are for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  One percent backs another candidate, and 3% are undecided.

“Romney is only doing slightly better than McCain did in Nevada four years ago when Obama carried the state by 12 points,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Obama, however, is not matching his own ’08 level of support.  That’s why it’s so competitive here.”

Click Here for Complete September 27, 2012 Nevada NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete September 27, 2012 Nevada NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

  • Party ID.  A wide partisan divide exists.  94% of Democrats who are likely to vote support Obama while 93% of Republicans who are likely to vote are for Romney.  Among independent likely voters, 52% are for Romney compared with 40% for Obama.
  • Enthusiasm.  62% of likely voters in Nevada are very enthusiastic about voting in November.  65% of likely voters who support Romney have a high degree of enthusiasm about going to the polls compared with 62% of likely voters who back Obama.
  • Intensity of support.  86% of likely voters in Nevada are firmly behind their candidate.  12% somewhat support their choice while 2% might vote differently.  Less than 1% is unsure.  Looking at the supporters of each candidate, 86% of Obama’s backers are strongly committed to him, and the same proportion — 86% — of Romney’s backers is firmly in his corner.
  • Gender.  Nearly six in ten women who are likely to vote — 57% — support the president while 41% favor Romney.  Romney — 53% — has the lead among men who are likely to vote while 42% back Obama.
  • Age.  Likely voters under the age of 30 — 71% — are for the president.  This compares with just 27% who support Romney.  Romney — 58% — has the lead, however, over Obama — 37% — among those 30 to 44.   Looking at those 45 to 59, a majority — 53% — support Obama while 44% are behind Romney.  Likely voters 60 and older divide.  48% are behind Romney compared with 47% for Obama.

Among Nevada registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama has the lead.  51% support the president while 44% are for Romney.  One percent plans to support another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

In NBC News/Marist’s May survey, registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate divided.  48% were for Obama while 46% were for Romney.  Only 1% said they intended to vote for someone else, and 5% were undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NV Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (NV Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (NV Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NV Registered Voters with Leaners)

Perceptions of the Candidates

50% of Nevada likely voters have a positive view of the president while 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  Three percent are unsure.

Looking at Romney, 48% have an unfavorable impression of him while 45% have a favorable one.  Seven percent are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (NV Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (NV Likely Voters)

Taking Measure of the Veeps

47% of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Vice President Biden.  43% think well of him, and 10% are unsure.

When it comes to Paul Ryan, 45% have a favorable opinion of the candidate.  However, 39% have an unfavorable perception of him.  16% are unsure or have never heard of him.

Table: Vice President Joe Biden Favorability (NV Likely Voters)

Table: Paul Ryan Favorability (NV Likely Voters)

Obama and Romney Vie for Top Spot on Economy…Obama Over Romney on Foreign Policy

48% of registered voters in Nevada say Obama is the better candidate to handle the economy while 46% think Romney is.  Six percent are unsure.  Among likely voters, 48% report Romney is the candidate who can turn around the nation’s economy compared with 47% who believe Obama is the candidate for the job.  Five percent are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s May survey, registered voters also divided.  44% of voters said Obama was the better candidate on the economy while the same proportion — 44% — thought Romney was.  11% were unsure.

Obama — 50% — is perceived as the stronger candidate on foreign policy among registered voters in Nevada.  43%, however, say Romney is better prepared to deal with this policy area.  Seven percent are unsure.  Among likely voters, 48% say Obama is more capable to deal with foreign policy issues.  This compares with 45% who think Romney has the edge in this area.  Six percent are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s previous survey, Obama — 50% — outdistanced Romney among registered voters — 40% — on the issue of foreign policy.  11%, then, were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NV Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NV Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NV Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NV Likely Voters)

Voters Divide about President’s Job Performance

47% of registered voters in Nevada approve of how the president is doing his job, and 47% do not.  Six percent are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in May, voters also divided.  46% gave the president high marks while 47% believed he fell short.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Nevada (NV Registered Voters)

Majority Says Nation Is Moving in the Wrong Direction

55% of registered voters in Nevada think the nation is on the wrong path.  This compares with 41% who say it is moving in the right direction.  Four percent are unsure.

In May, similar proportions held these views.  A majority — 55% — thought the nation was off course while 39% said its trajectory was on target.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (NV Registered Voters)

Heller Leads Berkley in Nevada Senate Race

In the race for U.S. Senate in Nevada, 49% of likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate support Republican incumbent Dean Heller while 43% back Democrat Shelley Berkley.  One percent backs another candidate, and 6% are undecided.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Heller — 48% — edges Berkley — 44%.  One percent is for another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

In NBC News/Marist’s May survey, Heller had the support of 46% of registered voters including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate while Berkley had 44%.  10% were undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Nevada: Berkley/Heller (NV Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Nevada: Berkley/Heller (NV Registered Voters with Leaners)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

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