9/20: Obama with Advantage Over Romney in Colorado

September 20, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

Among likely voters in Colorado including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have the support of 50% compared with 45% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  One percent supports another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

“Obama and Romney are fighting to a draw on who is better for the economy,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Obama has a sizeable lead on handling foreign affairs at a time when voters’ concerns are also directed at developments overseas.”

Click Here for Complete September 20, 2012 Colorado NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete September 20, 2012 Colorado NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

  • Party ID.  A wide partisan divide exists.  95% of Democrats who are likely to vote are behind the president while 93% of Republican likely voters back Romney.  Among independent voters, 50% support Obama compared with 39% for Romney.
  • Enthusiasm.  59% of likely voters in Colorado are very enthusiastic about voting in November.  Looking at each candidate’s support, 64% of Romney supporters who are likely to go to the polls have a high level of enthusiasm.  This compares with 59% of likely voters who support the president.
  • Intensity of support.  84% of likely voters are firmly committed to their candidate of choice.  This compares with 14% who are somewhat behind their pick and 1% who say they might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.  Among those who support the president and are likely to go to the polls, 86% are firmly committed to him.  Looking at Romney’s supporters who are likely to cast a ballot, 82% report they are firmly committed to him.
  • Gender.  There is a gender gap.  54% of women who are likely to vote support the president.  This compares with 40% who are for Romney.  Men who are likely to vote — 50% — favor Romney.  The president garners 45% of male voters.
  • Age.  President Obama carries the support of 70% of Colorado likely voters under the age of 30.  This compares with 25% who are for Romney.  Among those 30 to 44, a majority — 53% — supports Obama while 40% back Romney.  Romney, however, edges Obama among older voters.  Looking at likely voters between the ages of 45 and 59, 50% are for Romney compared with 45% for Obama.  Romney receives support from the same proportion — 50% — of those 60 and older as does Obama — 45%.

Looking at registered voters in Colorado including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, the president receives 50% of the vote compared with 44% for Romney.  Two percent support another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in May, 46% of registered voters supported the president.  45% were for Romney, and only 1% backed another candidate.  Eight percent were undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (CO Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (CO Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (CO Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (CO Registered Voters with Leaners)

Majority Views Obama Favorably…Half Perceive Romney Unfavorably

51% of Colorado likely voters have a favorable impression of the president.  This compares with 45% who have an unfavorable view of him.  Four percent are unsure.

When it comes to Mitt Romney’s favorability, 50% have an unfavorable view of the candidate while 43% think well of him.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (CO Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (CO Likely Voters)

Voters Divide about V.P. Candidates

While 43% of likely Colorado voters have a positive impression of Vice President Joe Biden, 46% have an unfavorable one.  11% are unsure.

Looking at Paul Ryan, 43% think well of him compared with 44% who do not.  14% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Vice President Joe Biden Favorability (CO Likely Voters)

Table: Paul Ryan Favorability (CO Likely Voters)

Split Decision on Economy, Obama Takes Prize on Foreign Policy

Which candidate will do a better job handling the economy?  48% of Colorado registered voters believe Obama will.  This compares with 45% who think Romney is the better candidate to focus the nation’s economy.  Seven percent are unsure.  Likely voters in Colorado agree.  48% of these voters report Obama is better skilled at dealing with the economy.  However, 46% say Romney is better suited for the job.  Six percent are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in May, voters also divided.  At that time, 45% of registered voters reported Romney was the stronger candidate on the issue compared with 42% who believed Obama was.  13%, then, were unsure.

Foreign policy is a different story.  Obama is perceived by 51% of registered voters in Colorado as more capable on the issue.  This compares with 40% who say Romney is better equipped to do so.  10% are unsure.  Likely voters share these views.  51% of likely voters think Obama is the candidate better suited to deal with foreign policy issues while 41% believe Romney is.  Eight percent are unsure.

In May, Obama — 47% — topped Romney — 39% — on this question.  At that time, 14% were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (CO Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (CO Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (CO Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (CO Likely Voters)

President’s Approval Rating at 47% in Colorado

When it comes to the president’s job performance, registered voters divide.  47% approve of how he is doing in office.  The same proportion — 47% — disapproves, and 6% are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s May survey, nearly half of voters — 49% — disapproved of Obama’s job performance while 45% approved.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Colorado (CO Registered Voters)

Majority Believes Nation Needs a New Direction

53% of registered voters in Colorado report the country is off course.  This compares with 41% who believe it is on track.  Six percent are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s previous survey, 56% thought the country needed a new compass while 38% believed it was on target.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (CO Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

4 Responses to “9/20: Obama with Advantage Over Romney in Colorado”

  1. NBC NEWS/WSJ/MARIST BATTLEGROUND POLLS: Obama ahead in Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin…Daniel | Politicaldog101.Com on September 20th, 2012 11:30 pm

    [...] (54-40). He also leads in Key Regions of the State most importantly the Denver Suburbs (51-44) http://maristpoll.marist.edu/920-obama-with-advantage-over-romney-in-colorado/ [...]

  2. pete kent on September 21st, 2012 6:42 am

    This poll looks particularly bad – it oversamples Democrats based on registration and exit poll history by substantial margins in excess of Obama lead. When you have 90% of Democrats voting for President Obama each extra percent of Democrats sampled adds about that much to the President’s lead.

    The poll sample included a net excess of Ds over Rs of +2 (expands to +6 w leaners). But if you look at voter registration data for CO Republicans actually have the advantage by +3. Looking at exit poll data over the past 3 cycles Republicans turned out in excess of Democrats in each election, by 4 in 2008, by 9 in 2004 and by 3 in 2000:

    Based on the above I find the poll to be an unreliable gauge of where things stand in Colorado today.

    @petekent01 on Twitter

  3. How Does Colorado Feel After the First Debate? on October 8th, 2012 8:41 pm

    [...] voters in this key state for the outcome of the election. Prior to the first Presidential debate on September 20, 2012 an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50% – 45%(with a margin of error of [...]

  4. Swing Shift — MSNBC on October 21st, 2012 12:12 pm

    [...] our latest NBC/WSJ/Marist polling in [...]

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