9/20: Obama Up by 5 Percentage Points Over Romney in Wisconsin

September 20, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

In the race for the White House in Wisconsin, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have the support of 50% of likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate while 45% support Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  Only 1% backs another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

“President Obama has a narrow lead in a state he handily carried last time,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “There is slightly greater enthusiasm of Romney backers over Obama supporters, but it’s not enough to tip the scales in Romney’s direction.”

Click Here for Complete September 20, 2012 Wisconsin NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete September 20, 2012 Wisconsin NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

  • Party ID.  Most Democrats who are likely to vote — 96% — support the president while most Republicans likely to cast a ballot — 98% — are for Romney.  Among independent voters, Obama — 46% — and Romney — 45% — are neck and neck.
  • Enthusiasm.  58% of likely voters in Wisconsin say they are very enthusiastic about going to the polls in November.  Slightly more likely voters who support Romney — 64% — express a high level of enthusiasm compared with 58% of Obama’s backers.
  • Intensity of support.  More than eight in ten likely voters in Wisconsin — 86% — strongly support their choice of candidate.  This compares with 11% who are somewhat committed to their pick and 2% who might vote differently.  Less than 1% is unsure.  Among Obama’s supporters who are likely to cast a ballot, 87% firmly back him.  A similar proportion of those behind Romney — 86% — express a comparable level of commitment.
  • Gender.  While Obama — 54% — leads Romney — 42% — among women who are likely to vote, men divide.  49% back Romney compared with 46% for Obama.
  • Age.  Likely voters under the age of 30 — 56% — favor the president.  This compares with 38% who support Romney.  Among those aged 30 to 44, voters divide.  Obama receives the support of 49% of these likely voters while Romney garners 47%.  Looking at those 45 to 59, a majority — 52% — are behind Obama while 43% support Romney.  Obama — 48% — and Romney — 46% — are neck and neck among those 60 and older.

Among registered voters in Wisconsin including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama receives 51% of the vote while Romney gets 43%.  Just 1% of registered voters intends to vote for another candidate, and 5% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (WI Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (WI Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (WI Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (WI Registered Voters with Leaners)

Majority Perceives Obama Favorably…Divide about Romney

51% of likely voters in Wisconsin have a favorable impression of the president.  44% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 4% are unsure.

Looking at Romney, likely voters divide.  46% have an unfavorable opinion of him while 43% have a positive one.  10% are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (WI Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (WI Likely Voters)

Wisconsin’s Favorite Son Viewed Well…Biden Receives Mixed Reviews

In his home state of Wisconsin, 49% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Paul Ryan.  40%, however, have an unfavorable view of him, and 11% are unsure.

Vice President Joe Biden does not fare as well.  Voters divide.  45% have an unfavorable view of him while 42% have a favorable one.  12% are unsure.

Table: Paul Ryan Favorability (WI Likely Voters)

Table: Vice President Joe Biden Favorability (WI Likely Voters)

Obama and Romney on Close Footing on Economy…Obama Tops on Foreign Policy

45% of registered voters in Wisconsin believe Obama will better handle the economy compared with 44% who think Romney will do a better job.  11% are unsure.  Among likely voters, 46% say Romney is more capable on this issue while 45% think Obama is better suited for the task.  Nine percent are unsure.

When it comes to foreign policy, Obama is the favorite.  51% of registered voters think the president is the man for the job while 39% have this opinion of Romney.  11% are unsure.  Likely voters have similar views.  51% say Obama is better prepared to tackle foreign policy issues.  This compares with 40% who think Romney has the edge in this area.  Nine percent are unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (WI Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (WI Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (WI Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (WI Likely Voters)

Obama Approval Rating at 48% in Wisconsin

48% of registered voters in the state approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office while 44% do not.  Seven percent are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in March, half of registered voters — 50% — gave the president high marks while 40% believed he fell short.  10%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Wisconsin (WI Registered Voters)

Majority Thinks Nation Is Moving in the Wrong Direction

While 54% of registered voters in Wisconsin think the country is on the wrong track, 38% say it is moving in the right direction.  Seven percent are unsure.  In March, similar proportions held these views.  At that time, a majority — 55% — reported the nation was off course while 39% said its trajectory was on target.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (WI Registered Voters)

Baldwin and Thompson in Close Contest in U.S. Senate Race

In the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin, Democrat Tammy Baldwin — 48% — and Republican Tommy Thompson — 46% — vie for the lead among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Five percent are undecided.Baldwin and Thompson in Close Contest in U.S. Senate Race

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Baldwin edges past Thompson.  49% support Baldwin compared with 44% for Thompson.  Seven percent are undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Wisconsin: Baldwin/Thompson (WI Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Wisconsin: Baldwin/Thompson (WI Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

Comments

5 Responses to “9/20: Obama Up by 5 Percentage Points Over Romney in Wisconsin”

  1. pete kent on September 20th, 2012 8:08 pm

    Wish you would report partisan ID. Many/most polls this year have been using Democrat heavy turnout models which is impacting the results.

    @petekent01 on Twitter

  2. pete kent on September 20th, 2012 8:48 pm

    I found the partisan ID stats for the WI poll. It looks pretty clean — slight Dem bias, but no outrageous. WI always was going to be an uphill for Romney, but he can turn this around. Per this poll he has already shaved 9 points Obama’s margin in 2008.

    @petekent01 on Twitter

  3. John Vander Wal on September 21st, 2012 12:11 pm

    I do not believe your biased reporting. Shame on you for trying to sway this election. It’s not going to work!!!

    Have a blessed day!!

  4. Brian on September 21st, 2012 4:07 pm

    What’s the voter’s party registration breakdown?
    I couldn’t find it.

  5. Mary Azzoli on October 3rd, 2012 10:38 am

    Our nature of the sample may be found on just above the “print this post” link on this page.
    - Mary Azzoli, Director of Interactive Media Systems, The Marist Poll

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