8/14: Clinton Leads GOP Rivals, but Loses Ground

August 14, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still favored against several of her potential Republican opponents among registered voters nationally, but she no longer is backed by the majority of the electorate.  In fact, Clinton’s once double-digital lead against GOP hopefuls former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has eroded.  Clinton’s change of fortune is largely due to a shift among independent voters among whom she still leads but not by the margins she did before.

Complete August 14, 2014 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll

But, as for who the Republican nominee will be, that’s still anybody’s guess.  With nearly one in four Republican and Republican leaning independents undecided, an increase from just months ago, no clear front-runner has emerged from the pack.  Bush and Christie currently top the leader board with low double-digit support.  Ted Cruz is the only other Republican candidate to reach ten percent.

“There is no pre-season for team Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “She needs to perform at Super Bowl level from start to finish.”

Poll Points

  • Clinton leads Jeb Bush, 48% to 41%, among registered voters nationally (Trend).  She receives similar support against Chris Christie, 47% to 41% (Trend), and Rand Paul, 48% to 42% (Trend).  In each of these contests, the proportion of voters who back the Republican candidates is indistinguishable, and Clinton fails to break fifty percent.
  • Clinton’s support among independent voters against each of these three potential rivals has declined from a previous poll conducted in April.  She is down among independents by 10 points against Bush, nine points against Paul, and six points against Christie.
  • In each of these contests, a gender gap exists.  However, Clinton has lost support among, both, men and women since the previous poll.
  • The national electorate is extremely polarized in each of these presidential matchups.  Clinton is backed by most Democrats and the Republican base is unified against her, regardless of the GOP candidate.

Crowded GOP Field Fails to Yield Front-Runner

  • 23% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents are undecided about who they will support in the 2016 Republican primary.  Jeb Bush and Chris Christie each receives 13% while 10% support Texas Senator Ted Cruz.  Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and Florida Senator Marco Rubio are close behind with 9%.  Texas Governor Rick Perry and Senator Rand Paul are backed by 7%.  Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal trail.
  • Although the sample size is small, there has been a notable shift in the preferences of Tea Party supporters.  15% of these voters now back Cruz, up from 6% in April.  In contrast, Rand Paul’s support among the Tea Party has fallen from 20% in the previous poll to 7% currently.
  • Men are more likely than women to have a candidate preference in the GOP primary.  30% of women are undecided compared with 14% of men.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

Comments

10 Responses to “8/14: Clinton Leads GOP Rivals, but Loses Ground”

  1. HUFFPOLLSTER: Plurality Of Americans Believe Cops Use Lethal Force Too Frequently — LiberalVoiceLiberalVoice — Your source for everything about liberals and progressives! — News and tweets about everything liberals and progressives on August 14th, 2014 6:29 pm

    [...] politicians, but by a few points less than previously. Pollster shorthand rating: “±” [Marist, shorthand [...]

  2. HUFFPOLLSTER: Plurality Of Americans Believe Cops Use Lethal Force Too Frequently | The News On Time on August 14th, 2014 6:31 pm

    [...] politicians, but by a few points less than previously. Pollster shorthand rating: “±” [Marist, shorthand [...]

  3. HUFFPOLLSTER: Plurality Of Americans Believe Cops Use Lethal Force Too Frequently on August 14th, 2014 6:41 pm

    [...] [...]

  4. HUFFPOLLSTER: Plurality Of Americans Believe Cops Use Lethal Force Too Frequently | The Daily Float on August 14th, 2014 7:13 pm

    [...] politicians, but by a few points less than previously. Pollster shorthand rating: “±” [Marist, shorthand [...]

  5. It’s time to stop calling Rand Paul a tea partier - The Washington Post on August 15th, 2014 6:31 am

    [...] seems actual tea partiers are apparently noticing that Paul isn't exactly their cup of tea. The new McClatchy-Marist College poll of the 2016 GOP presidential primary shows Paul's share of the tea party vote dropping from 20 [...]

  6. Rand Paul Gaining on Hillary, Losing Among Tea Party Voters - Hit & Run : Reason.com on August 15th, 2014 10:19 am

    [...] Louisville Courier-Journal writes up a new Marist poll of [...]

  7. Rand Paul Gaining on Hillary, Losing Among Tea Party Voters | Michigan Standard on August 16th, 2014 3:03 am

    [...] Louisville Courier-Journal writes up a new Marist poll of [...]

  8. Rand Paul Gaining on Hillary, Losing Among Tea Party Voters | Deft News on August 16th, 2014 11:03 am

    [...] Louisville Courier-Journal cites a new Marist poll of [...]

  9. Perry Indictment May Become Asset by Rallying Republicans | Texas news on August 17th, 2014 6:40 pm

    [...] the pack in early national polling that has tested Republican preferences, recording 7 percent in a McClatchy-Marist Poll released this month. That’s similar to the support received by Rand Paul among Republicans and [...]

  10. Eric B. on August 18th, 2014 9:58 am

    What has Rand Paul done to alienate Tea Party supporters?

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