7/25: Quinn Reclaims Lead from Weiner in Democratic Primary… Should Weiner Drop Out? Dems Divide

July 25, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

In light of new revelations that Anthony Weiner continued to engage in lewd online behavior after he resigned from Congress two years ago, Weiner now trails Christine Quinn in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor.  In this first poll conducted entirely after the latest scandalous details emerged, Quinn now outdistances Weiner by 9 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Christine Quinn
  • 16% Anthony Weiner
  • 14% Bill de Blasio
  • 14% Bill Thompson
  •   7% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 19% Undecided

Click Here for Complete July 25, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll*

“For many Democrats the latest revelations about Anthony Weiner are more of the same, only more so,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Weiner has lost his lead and his negatives are at an all-time high.”

There has been a 14 percentage point swing in the contest between Quinn and Weiner.  As noted, Quinn leads Weiner by 9 percentage points.  When the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question in June, Weiner — 25% — edged Quinn — 20% — by 5 percentage points among New York City Democrats including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Bill Thompson received the support of 13%.  At that time, 10% backed Bill de Blasio while 8% were for John Liu.  Erick Salgado had the support of 2%, and 1% was behind Sal Albanese.  One percent backed another candidate, and 18% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 26% are for Quinn compared with 17% for de Blasio who is in a statistical tie for second with Weiner at 16% and Thompson with 15%.  Liu has the backing of 7%, Salgado garners 2%, and 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 15% are undecided.

How committed to their choice of candidate are New York City Democrats with their candidate preference?  42% say they strongly support their choice.  32% are somewhat behind their pick while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 36% of Democrats with a candidate preference reported they were firmly in their candidate’s camp.  38% were somewhat behind their pick, and 23% thought they might change their minds before Election Day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Democrats who are for Weiner — 52% — are still more committed to their choice of candidate than backers of the other leading contenders.  37% of Quinn’s supporters strongly support her.  35% of Thompson’s backers have a similar intensity of support, and 33% of Democrats behind de Blasio are firmly committed to their candidate.  In June, 45% of Weiner’s supporters said they strongly supported him.  This compares with 34% of Quinn’s backers who expressed a similar intensity of support.  Results for Thompson and de Blasio are not available for the previous poll.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Weiner’s Negative Rating Soars

There has been a dramatic shift in Democrats’ impressions of Anthony Weiner from a similar poll conducted last month before the latest online sexual relationship came to light.  In the current survey, a majority of Democrats citywide have an unfavorable impression of Anthony Weiner.  55% have this view while three in ten — 30% — have a favorable opinion of the candidate.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  This represents the highest negative rating Anthony Weiner has received this election season.

In last month’s NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, a majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — had a favorable view of Weiner while 36% had an unfavorable opinion of him.  11%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

“New York City Democrats were willing to give Anthony Weiner a second chance but are reluctant to excuse his behavior now,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Democrats Divide Over Future of Weiner’s Candidacy

Despite the tawdry details of Weiner’s online sexual relationships, Weiner vows to fight on in his quest to become the next mayor of New York City.  But, do Democrats citywide want Weiner to remain in the race?  47% do while 43% want him to drop out of the contest.  10% are unsure.

What would the race look like without Weiner?  Quinn outpaces her closest competitor, Thompson, by 15 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner:

  • 32% Christine Quinn
  • 17% Bill Thompson
  • 16% Bill de Blasio
  •   9% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 20% Undecided

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 32% support Quinn compared with 20% for de Blasio.  18% are behind Thompson while Liu receives the support of 9%.  Two percent back Salgado while 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Table: Should Anthony Weiner Drop Out of the Race for New York City Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor without Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Do Weiner’s Online Sexcapades Matter to Democrats?

46% of New York City Democrats say Weiner’s online sexual relationships will impact their vote.  Included here are 33% who report Weiner’s activities will matter a great deal to their decision and 13% who say Weiner’s actions will matter a good amount.  49%, however, say these activities matter little or not at all when deciding their vote.  This includes 14% who say these revelations matter a little and 35% who say they don’t matter at all.  Five percent are unsure.

Anthony Weiner is not the only politician seeking forgiveness from the public.  Following a prostitution scandal that forced him out of office, former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is running for New York City comptroller.  However, Democrats citywide find Weiner’s behavior more egregious than Spitzer’s actions.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist asked Democrats earlier this month if Spitzer’s sex scandal would impact their vote, only 34% believed it would have an effect on how they cast their ballot, and 62% reported it would matter little or not at all.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: Impact of Weiner’s Online Sexual Relationships on Vote (NYC Democrats)

A Matter of Trust?  Abedin’s Support Does Little to Help Weiner

In a press conference on Tuesday, Huma Abedin, Anthony Weiner’s wife, publicly supported her husband and said she had forgiven him.  However, her commitment does little to help Weiner’s electoral chances.  Almost three in four Democrats — 73% — report Abedin’s support has no impact on how much trust they have in Weiner to be mayor.  15% say her backing makes them more likely to trust him while 12% say it makes them less likely to do so.

Table: Does Huma Abedin’s Support of Anthony Weiner Make You More or Less Likely to Trust Weiner as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Have Weiner’s Chances Run Out? 

Can New York City Democrats move beyond Weiner’s salacious activities and give him another chance?  Again, there is a divide.  47% believe Weiner deserves another chance in the public arena while 45% disagree and say he does not have the character to be mayor.  Nine percent are unsure.

When Marist last reported a similar question in May, 59% of Democrats thought Weiner should be given a second chance.  35% said he did not have the character to be mayor, and 6% were unsure.

Democrats are more willing to grant redemption to Eliot Spitzer.  Two weeks ago, 67% said Spitzer deserved another chance while one in four — 25% — believed he did not have the character to be comptroller.  Eight percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Does Anthony Weiner Deserve Another Chance? (NYC Democrats)

Just Four in Ten Think Weiner Would Do Well as Mayor 

Just 40% of Democrats citywide think Weiner would do an excellent or good job as mayor.  This includes 15% who say he would be an excellent mayor and 25% who report he would be a good one.  47% do not think he would excel as mayor, including 19% who believe he would do a fair job in the office while more than one in four — 28% — predict he would perform poorly in City Hall.  13% are unsure.

Once again, New York City Democrats express more faith in Eliot Spitzer.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s early July survey, 57% thought Spitzer would do either an excellent — 18% — or good — 39% — job as comptroller.  19% reported he would do a fair job, and 12% said he would fall short.  12%, then, were unsure.

Table: How Would Anthony Weiner Perform as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Spitzer with 17 Percentage Point Lead in the Race for NYC Comptroller 

Where does the contest for New York City comptroller stand?  Spitzer — 49% — leads Scott Stringer — 32% — by 17 percentage points among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Spitzer’s lead has widened.  Earlier this month, 42% of Democrats supported Spitzer while 33% were for Stringer.  One percent backed another candidate, and 24% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 48% support Spitzer compared with 36% for Stringer.  One percent supports another candidate, and 14% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer led Stringer 44% to 36% among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

40 Responses to “7/25: Quinn Reclaims Lead from Weiner in Democratic Primary… Should Weiner Drop Out? Dems Divide”

  1. Breaking…First Snap Poll after Weiner stuff finds Quinn back in the lead in NYC Mayor Race….. | Politicaldog101.Com on July 25th, 2013 12:44 pm

    [...] More… [...]

  2. Forget Anthony Weiner. Meet Bill Thompson. on July 25th, 2013 12:55 pm

    [...] Marist/NBC/WSJ poll out Thursday has Thompson in a statistical dead heat for that second runoff spot with Weiner [...]

  3. Weiner’s standing plummets in new poll | The Penn Ave Post on July 25th, 2013 1:00 pm

    [...] numbers have plummeted in New York’s Democratic mayoral race, according to a new NBC4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll that was conducted after the new revelations of Weiner’s lewd and racy communication [...]

  4. Anthony Wein'r’s Poll Numbers Collapse As He Admits To Saxtyun' Wit Three Wimmen Aft'r Resignyun' Frum Congress | Oklahoma Sentinal on July 25th, 2013 1:19 pm

    [...] o'new online activitee at kum aft'r his'n resignashun frum Congress n' 2011, accerdyun' to a new NBC New York/Wall Street Jurnl/Marist College poll releeset [...]

  5. What is Weiner Thinking? : News Feed Central on July 25th, 2013 1:21 pm

    [...] 7/25: Quinn Reclaims Lead from Weiner in Democratic Primary … In light of new revelations that Anthony Weiner continued to engage in lewd online behavior after he resigned from Congress two years ago, Weiner now trails. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/ — Thu, 25 Jul 2013 09:03:36 -0700 [...]

  6. The guy behind The Dirty runs his revenge porn site with dignity | Death and Taxes on July 25th, 2013 2:30 pm

    [...] vote the man into office.But, despite the heavy flak Weiner has endured in the last 48 hours, the latest Marist Poll (results below), conducted on Wednesday, shows that he’s behind — but not that behind [...]

  7. New poll shows Weiner losing lead in NYC mayoral race — MSNBC on July 25th, 2013 3:48 pm

    [...] mayoral candidate’s favorability rating has sharply tanked since June. According to a new NBC4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn is leading among registered Democrats at 25%, with Weiner at [...]

  8. Anthony Weiner’s post ‘Carlos Danger’ numbers are junk | Harry J Enten - rss news on July 25th, 2013 5:04 pm

    [...] Marist polling organization, which has tended to be the most favorable to Weiner, has him dropping 9pt, to 16%, and now behind [...]

  9. Anthony Weiner sexted three women after resigning, drops in poll on July 25th, 2013 5:37 pm

    [...] a Marist/NBC/WSJ poll finds Weiner tied for second place among both registered and likely Democratic voters. City Council President [...]

  10. Government_Graduate87 on July 25th, 2013 5:37 pm

    It appears that Weiner’s campaign has gone flacid.

  11. NSFW: The Dirty Publishes Uncensored Anthony Weiner Nude Photos | Moral Low Ground on July 25th, 2013 6:21 pm

    [...] since the latest scandal broke and according to an NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, he now trails Quinn in the Democratic primary by nine [...]

  12. Trailside: Poll Shows Virtual Tie in Comptroller’s Race : One Caribbean Radio | The Global Mix on July 25th, 2013 6:31 pm

    [...] other survey released on Thursday, the NBC New York 4/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, suggests that, in the [...]

  13. Poll: Anthony Weiner drops to second place — MSNBC on July 25th, 2013 6:32 pm

    [...] Anthony Weiner lewd emails scandal. The mayoral candidate has dropped nine points, according to the NBC4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, and is now in second place behind City Council Speaker Christine [...]

  14. Anthony Weiner’s Poll Numbers Collapse As He Admits To Sexting With Three Women After Resigning From Congress on July 25th, 2013 7:22 pm

    [...] of new online activity that came after his resignation from Congress in 2011, according to an NBC New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll released [...]

  15. Pelosi Says Weiner Should 'Get A Clue'; Popularity Dives In NYC | Kentucky NewsKentucky News on July 25th, 2013 7:53 pm

    [...] day that opened with a new poll showing his support and approval rating among New York Democrats plummeting since the new scandal [...]

  16. Polls tell different stories in Spitzer's comeback bid | United Americans on July 25th, 2013 8:22 pm

    [...] among likely Democratic primary voters. Spitzer stood at 49% while Stringer was at 45%. But a second poll from NBC4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist among Democrats likely to vote in the September [...]

  17. Pelosi Says Weiner Should ‘Get A Clue’; Popularity Dives In NYC | my blog on July 25th, 2013 8:23 pm

    [...] day that opened with a new poll showing his support and approval rating among New York Democrats plummeting since the new scandal [...]

  18. » Weiner Campaign Goes Flaccid Liberal Values on July 25th, 2013 9:11 pm

    [...] With the revelations of his on-going stupidity, his lead has evaporated in the polls. The latest Marist poll has him narrowly holding on to second place, nine points behind Christine Quinn in the Democratic [...]

  19. Anthony Weiner hasn't changed, woman says; 'I am proof' - Los Angeles Times | Consumer Special Report on July 25th, 2013 9:14 pm

    [...] unfavorability rating has reached an all-time high, the poll from NBC 4 New York/the Wall Street Journal/Marist showed. Among registered Democrats, [...]

  20. Anthony Weiner hasn’t changed, woman says; ‘I am proof’ – Los Angeles Times | Phase In Out on July 25th, 2013 10:01 pm

    [...] unfavorability rating has reached an all-time high, the poll from NBC 4 New York/the Wall Street Journal/Marist showed. Among registered Democrats, [...]

  21. Anthony Weiner hasn’t changed, woman says; ‘I am proof’ – Los Angeles Times | PremiumDailyNews.com Premium News Stories on July 25th, 2013 10:08 pm

    [...] unfavorability rating has reached an all-time high, the poll from NBC 4 New York/the Wall Street Journal/Marist showed. Among registered Democrats, [...]

  22. Anthony Weiner’s increasing irrelevance on July 26th, 2013 6:30 am

    [...] A WNBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday tells the story.  Sure, Weiner took 16 percent among registered Democrats — good for second place behind New York City Council President Chris Quinn. But, scratch the surface of the poll, which was conducted after Weiner publicly admitted his (latest) transgressions Tuesday, and his rapidly approaching irrelevance in the race is clear. [...]

  23. Limp: Weiner Poll Numbers Shrink | The Penn Ave Post on July 26th, 2013 8:18 am

    [...] Weiner Poll Numbers Shrink Posted at 8:18 on July 26, 2013 by A new Marist poll of the New York City mayor’s race finds a sharp reversal in support for Anthony Weiner. In [...]

  24. First Read Flash: Fighting against Violence — MSNBC on July 26th, 2013 8:19 am

    [...] York City mayoral candidate Anthony Weiner has lost support according to a new NBC4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll conducted after the latest revelations of improper behavior. He has now lost the lead to City [...]

  25. Anthony Weiner’s increasing irrelevance – Washington Post (blog) – newsontour.com on July 26th, 2013 8:39 am

    [...] A WNBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday tells the story.  Sure, Weiner took 16 percent among registered Democrats — good for second place behind New York City Council President Chris Quinn. But, scratch the surface of the poll, which was conducted after Weiner publicly admitted his (latest) transgressions Tuesday, and his rapidly approaching irrelevance in the race is clear. [...]

  26. The Conundrum of Huma After Hillary - Taylor Marsh on July 26th, 2013 9:24 am

    [...] story it’s understandable that the man at the center who wants to be New York City mayor is taking on weight and sinking in the polls. If anyone has earned the fall it’s Anthony Weiner. “I don’t believe I had any more than [...]

  27. The Company Memo: Friday, July 26, 2013 — MSNBC on July 26th, 2013 9:27 am

    [...] of sexting have cost Anthony Weiner his lead in New York City’s race for mayor. A new WNBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows Weiner trailing new leader Christine Quinn by nine points. Despite the setback, Weiner pledges [...]

  28. Anthony Weiner’s Sunk Costs? | Ediary Blog on July 26th, 2013 10:26 am

    [...] again: who’s to say that Weiner won’t actually win the mayoral race? At this moment it seems unlikely but New York politics aren’t very [...]

  29. Quinn Takes Back Her Lead | politicsbyeccehomo on July 26th, 2013 10:43 am

    [...] released a poll for the New York City mayoral race yesterday, which it advertises as the “first poll conducted entirely after the latest scandalous details emerged” [...]

  30. Polls tell different stories in Spitzer’s comeback bid | PoliticsTrending.com on July 26th, 2013 11:02 am

    [...] among likely Democratic primary voters. Spitzer stood at 49% while Stringer was at 45%. But a second poll from NBC4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist among Democrats likely to vote in the September [...]

  31. Anthony Weiner hasn't changed, woman says; 'I am proof' - Los Angeles Times | Mash Mush on July 26th, 2013 11:02 am

    [...] unfavorability rating has reached an all-time high, the poll from NBC 4 New York/the Wall Street Journal/Marist showed. Among registered Democrats, [...]

  32. Why Anthony Weiner might stay in New York mayor's race | NEWS.GNOM.ES on July 27th, 2013 6:30 am

    [...] Weiner’s lead over his rivals in the polls is now gone. He currently trails City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, who has retaken the front-runner’s mantle with 25 percent of the city’s registered Democrats, according to Thursday’s NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. [...]

  33. Why Does Huma Abedin Stay With Anthony Weiner? | WORLD WIDE NEWS WATCH on July 27th, 2013 5:31 pm

    [...] bet doesn’t seem sound right now. Her husband has fallen behind Christine Quinn in the crowded Democratic primary for mayor of New York. Even if he can finish [...]

  34. For de Blasio, Weiner Scandal Eclipses Issues in Race | Mens Health Issues on July 29th, 2013 2:10 am

    [...] an NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of likely Democratic primary voters released on Thursday, Mr. de Blasio landed in a tie for second place, behind Christine C. Quinn and statistically even [...]

  35. Anthony Weiner support slumps as poll finds New Yorkers favour exit from race | Latest News ChannelLatest News Channel on July 29th, 2013 5:30 pm

    [...] a snap overnight poll conducted by Marist immediately after the new pictures came to light, 47% of respondents thought [...]

  36. Latest News Headlines - Anthony Weiner support slumps as poll finds New Yorkers favour exit from race on July 29th, 2013 7:26 pm

    [...] a snap overnight poll conducted by Marist immediately after the new pictures came to light, 47% of respondents thought [...]

  37. Anthony Weiner support slumps as poll finds New Yorkers favour exit from race | Treilo News on July 29th, 2013 11:02 pm

    [...] a snap overnight poll conducted by Marist immediately after the new pictures came to light, 47% of respondents thought [...]

  38. Anthony Weiner support slumps as poll finds New Yorkers favour exit from race « News in Briefs on July 30th, 2013 1:07 am

    [...] a snap overnight poll conducted by Marist immediately after the new pictures came to light, 47% of respondents thought [...]

  39. Anthony Weiner support slumps as poll finds New Yorkers favour exit from race | Newslair on July 30th, 2013 2:44 am

    [...] a snap overnight poll conducted by Marist immediately after the new pictures came to light, 47% of respondents thought [...]

  40. Battle of the Bills. | Ben Florsheim on August 8th, 2013 3:27 pm

    [...] purely hypothetical, a useful tool for determining where the defectors might lean. The more recent Marist poll offers a very early look at how that might play out: among likely voters, Quinn is well ahead with [...]

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