July 24, 2013
7/24: A Look at the 2016 Presidential Contest
McClatchy/Marist National Poll
If former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were to announce a candidacy for the Presidency, she would be the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Clinton outdistances her closest potential opponent, Vice President Joe Biden, by almost five-to-one in a hypothetical contest. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley each receives single-digit support. On the Republican side, there is no clear frontrunner among the pack of potential candidates.
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“Get ready for round two of Hillary Clinton as the inevitable,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The big question is whether she runs.”
Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:
- 63% Hillary Clinton
- 13% Joe Biden
- 6% Andrew Cuomo
- 1% Martin O’Malley
- 18% undecided
Do Democrats and Democratic leaning independents want a nominee who will continue President Obama’s policies, or would they rather a nominee who will move in another direction? They divide. 46% believe it is more important to have a nominee who will move President Obama’s policies forward while 44% want someone with a new vision. 10% are unsure.
Looking at the Republican contest, among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:
- 15% Chris Christie
- 13% Paul Ryan
- 12% Marco Rubio
- 10% Jeb Bush
- 9% Rand Paul
- 7% Ted Cruz
- 4% Rick Perry
- 2% Rick Santorum
- 2% Scott Walker
- 1% Bobby Jindal
- 1% Susana Martinez
- 25% undecided
“In a crowded field, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is at the top of the list,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “None of the potential Republican candidates who appeal to the more activist base of the party have broken free of the pack.”
By more than two-to-one, Republicans and Republican leaning independents would prefer a Republican nominee who stands on conservative principles rather than one who can win. Nearly two-thirds — 64% — think it is more important to have a candidate who stands firmly on Republican ground. This compares with 31% who believe the priority should be nominating a candidate who can defeat his or her Democratic opponent. Five percent are unsure.
Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus
Table: Priority for Democratic Presidential Nominee: the Same or Different Vision as President Obama
Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus
Table: Priority for Republican Presidential Nominee: Conservative Principles or Electability
Clinton Leads GOP Opponents in Potential 2016 General Election Matchups
Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner not only for her party’s nomination but also against the leading Republican presidential wannabes for 2016. Chris Christie and Jeb Bush run the most competitively against Clinton yet she still leads Christie by 6 percentage points and Bush by 8. She outdistances her other possible Republican opponents by double-digits.
Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:
- Clinton — 47% — leads Chris Christie — 41% — by 6 percentage points. 12% are undecided. When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, Clinton — 46% — and Christie — 43% — were neck and neck. 11% were undecided.
- Against Bush, Clinton is ahead by 8 percentage points. Here, Clinton receives 48% to 40% for Bush. 12% are undecided. In April, Clinton — 54% — led Bush — 38% — by 16 percentage points. Eight percent, at that time, were undecided.
- In a contest against Rubio, Clinton has a 12 percentage point advantage. She receives the support of 50% of registered voters compared with 38% for Rubio. 12% are undecided. Little has changed on this question. Clinton — 52% — outpaced Rubio — 40% — in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.
- When matched against Paul, 50% of voters are for Clinton compared with 38% for Paul. 11% are undecided. In April, 52% were for Clinton while 41% were for Paul. Seven percent were undecided.
- 53% of voters support Clinton when matched against Ryan — 37%. Nine percent are undecided.
- Clinton — 52% — also outdistances Perry — 36%. 12% are undecided.
Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie
Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush
Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio
Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul
Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan
Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Perry