Are you in search of the definitive narrative for decision ’12? Each time something BIG happens…an Obama or a Romney gaffe, the SCOTUS ruling on immigration or health care, the latest jobs numbers etc… the pundit and polling communities pounce on it as the storyline for the election.
Well, chattering class, be patient. It is true the candidates are already in high gear and the ad makers are regularly launching their missiles, but national polls and battleground state polls continue to show the race to be close. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Certainly, there’s much to be learned along the way from the political insights of experts about campaign strategies and public polls about how voters are absorbing what is being offered to them.
But, the conventions, the debates, the October economy, unforeseen international events, and (perhaps, most significantly) the ability of the campaigns to turn out their supporters will ultimately connect the dots that form the picture of the Obama re-election effort and the Romney challenge.