6/28: Obama and Romney Tied in New Hampshire

June 28, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/Marist Poll

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in the contest for New Hampshire’s four electoral votes.  Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama has the support of 45% while the same proportion — 45% — backs Romney.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

New Hampshire and United States flags“The Granite State is on the radar screen of both the Obama and Romney campaigns,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The state is one that can potentially get them across the finish line.”

Click Here for Complete June 28, 2012 New Hampshire NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete June 28, 2012 New Hampshire NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

  • President Obama receives the support of most Democrats – 90% — while Romney is favored among most Republicans – 91%.
  • Among independent voters, 44% are for Romney compared with 42% for Obama.
  • Looking at those who have an excellent or good chance of voting in November, voters divide.  46% back Romney while the president has the support of 45%.
  • Romney — 51% — leads Obama — 44% — among registered voters in New Hampshire who express a high level of enthusiasm about the presidential election.  However, Obama — 56% — has the advantage over Romney — 37% — among those who are moderately enthusiastic.  When it comes to those who have a low level of enthusiasm, Romney — 45% — is ahead of Obama — 30%.
  • Looking at interest in the presidential contest, Romney — 47% — and the president — 45% — are neck and neck among voters with a high interest.
  • Obama receives majority support — 53% — among those who strongly support their choice of candidate.  Romney garners 47%.
  • A gender gap exists.  51% of men support Romney while 40% are behind Obama. However, half of women — 50% — back Obama compared with 40% who are for Romney.
  • The president — 55% — has the advantage over Romney — 35% — among voters under the age of 30.  Among those 30 to 44 years old, Romney receives 47% while Obama garners 42%.  Obama — 45% — and Romney — 45% — are tied among voters 45 to 59 divide.    Among those 60 and older, 48% back Romney while 44% support the president.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NH Registered Voters with Leaners)

Talking Intensity…More than Seven in Ten Strongly Support Candidate

73% of registered voters in New Hampshire say they are firmly in their candidate’s camp.  21% somewhat support their choice of candidate while 5% might change their mind before Election Day.  One percent is unsure.

Key points:

  • 77% of Obama’s backers report they will not waver in their commitment to the president.  This compares with 70% of Romney’s supporters who say the same.

Table: Intensity of Support (NH Registered Voters)

Ayotte on Ticket Does Not Help Romney

If Romney asked New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte to be his running mate, 43% would support Romney and Ayotte while 45% would back President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.  Two percent would be for another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup with VPs: Obama/Biden against Romney/Ayotte (NH Registered Voters)

More than Seven in Ten Enthusiastic to Vote

46% of registered voters in New Hampshire are very enthusiastic about going to the polls in November, and 31% are somewhat enthusiastic.  17% are not too enthusiastic about voting, and 6% are not enthusiastic at all.

Key points:

  • A majority of Romney’s backers — 52% — express a high level of enthusiasm about casting their ballot.  This compares with 45% of President Obama’s supporters who express a similar level of enthusiasm.

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (NH Registered Voters)

Obama’s Job Performance at 47% in New Hampshire

Voters in New Hampshire divide about the president’s job performance.  47% approve of how Obama is doing in office.  This compares with 45% who disapprove, and 8% who are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in January, just prior to the Republican presidential primary, 40% of registered voters in New Hampshire approved of how the president was doing his job.  49% disapproved, and 10%, at that time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in New Hampshire (NH Registered Voters)

Half View Obama Favorably, Divide about Romney’s Image

President Obama is perceived favorably by 50% of New Hampshire voters.  This compares with 44% who have a lesser view of him, and 6% who are unsure.

When it comes to Romney’s favorability, 45% have a positive opinion of him while the same proportion — 45% — has an unfavorable view of Romney.  10% are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (NH Registered Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (NH Registered Voters)

46% View Romney as Better on Economy, Obama Perceived Stronger on Foreign Policy

A plurality of registered voters — 46% — say Romney will do a better job handling the nation’s economy.  42% think the president will.  13% are unsure.

When it comes to foreign policy, nearly half — 49% — report Obama will do a better job in this area while 39% believe Romney is the candidate who will excel.  13% are unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NH Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NH Registered Voters)

Nearly Six in Ten Say Economic Conditions Are Inherited

58% of New Hampshire voters think President Obama inherited the nation’s economic conditions.  32% believe they are a result of his policies.  10% are unsure.

A majority of voters express optimism about the future of the economy.  55% think there are better economic days ahead while 35% report the worst is still to come.  Nine percent are unsure.

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited (NH Registered Voters)

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse? (NH Registered Voters)

Country Has Lost Course, Say Almost Six in Ten

57% of voters in New Hampshire say, in general, things in the nation need to get back on track.  37% believe the U.S. is on the right road, and 6% are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (NH Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

5 Responses to “6/28: Obama and Romney Tied in New Hampshire”

  1. Eric on June 28th, 2012 10:04 am

    Why are you not including Gary Johnson in any of your Presidential polls?

  2. Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: New poll shows surprisingly good Democratic numbers in NC-Gov | Hotspyer – Breaking News from around the web on June 29th, 2012 9:51 am

    [...] trio of polls on Thursday—their second set of swing state polls this week. (They also surveyed New Hampshire but apparently did not test the gubernatorial contest. Zuh?) In any event, the NC-Gov numbers are [...]

  3. Techno radio on July 8th, 2012 6:22 pm

    I hope the USA will still get a better president than the one we have in our country…

  4. Stewart J. Lawrence: Mitt Romney’s VP Search Takes a Surprising Turn Closer to Home | WestPenn Journal on July 12th, 2012 9:03 am

    [...] has swung Democratic in four of the last five presidential elections, is clearly in play in 2012. A recent poll found a Romney-Ayotte ticket running in a statistical dead heat with Obama-Biden. Ayotte’s [...]

  5. Robert Lilja on July 19th, 2012 11:14 am

    I am curious why you choose to leave Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party out of your poll data. If the Ron Paul run for the nomination taught us anything this year it is that there is a large segment of the population that is ready for an alternative to what we have been getting from both parties. Ron Paul was even beating Obama in some head to head polling. He equated that to the popularity of his message, which also resonates with Libertarians, so it only makes sense that Gary Johnson would pick up that support if polled against the Republican and Democrats candidates.

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