5/28: Weiner Shows Gains on the Heels of Candidacy Announcement

May 28, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Former Congressman Anthony Weiner formally declared his candidacy for mayor of New York City last week.  In the first poll since his online video announcement, Weiner places second with the support of 19% of the city’s registered Democrats.   New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn still leads but with only 24% of Democrats’ support, the lowest she has had in this race.

Anthony Weiner

Anthony Weiner

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 19% Anthony Weiner
  • 12% Bill de Blasio
  • 11% Bill Thompson
  •   8% John Liu
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  • <1% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Other
  • 23% Undecided

 Click Here for Complete May 28, 2013 NYC Marist Poll Release and Tables

 “The Democratic primary for mayor remains wide open,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “It is likely to come down to who can punch their ticket for the runoff.”

In April, amid speculation Weiner would enter the race for mayor, he garnered the support of 15% of registered Democrats.  Quinn at that time received 26%, a lead of eleven points.  12%, last month, indicated they would vote for John Liu.  Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson each received 11%.  Sal Albanese had 2%, and 1% mentioned another candidate.  22% were undecided.

The race continues to be fluid although slightly more Democrats are committed to their vote than in April.  39% of Democrats who have a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice, and an additional 35% are somewhat behind their candidate.  25% might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  In April, only 34% strongly supported their choice, 30% somewhat supported their candidate, and 35% reported they might vote differently.  Two percent were unsure.

Intensity of support varies for the two frontrunners.  Among those who support Christine Quinn, 30% are strongly behind her, and 42% somewhat support her. 24% say they might vote differently, and 4% are undecided.  Anthony Weiner’s supporters are a bit stronger in their backing.  43% strongly support him while 38% are somewhat supportive. 17% might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Quinn receives 24% followed by Weiner with 19%, de Blasio with 14%, Thompson with 13%, Liu with 8%, Albanese with 1%, and Salgado with less than 1%.  21% of likely Democrats are undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Quinn Leads Hypothetical Runoffs

If none of the candidates garners 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary, a runoff will be held between the top two vote getting candidates.   Quinn leads in hypothetical runoffs against other Democratic candidates:

  • Quinn garners 48% to 33% for Anthony Weiner. 18% are undecided.
  • Quinn with 48% tops de Blasio with 30%.  22% remain undecided.
  • Quinn has majority support, 53%, against Liu who receives 25%.  22% are undecided.
  • Against Thompson, Quinn receives 44% of Democrats’ support to 34% for Thompson.  22% are undecided

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Majority Willing to Give Weiner a Second Chance, But….

How do registered voters in New York City react to Anthony Weiner’s candidacy when considering the sexting scandal that resulted in his resignation from Congress?  A majority of voters — 53% — say he deserves a second chance.  39% believe Weiner does not have the character to be mayor, and 8% are unsure.  Among Democrats, 59% think he deserves a second chance.  58% of non-enrolled voters feel the same.  However, six in ten Republicans — 61% — believe he does not have the character to be mayor.

But registered Democrats divide when asked about their impressions of Weiner.  44% of Democrats view him favorably, while 44% do not. 12% are unsure.  In April, 45% of the city’s Democrats had a favorable view of Weiner, and 41% had a negative view of him.  15% were unsure at the time.

Table: Anthony Weiner Second Chance (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Most Democratic Candidates for Mayor Viewed Favorably, But Not Well Known

Among the other candidates for the Democratic nomination for mayor, most are seen in a positive light by Democratic voters:

  • Christine Quinn is the most well-known.  She is viewed favorably by 60% of registered Democrats and unfavorably by 26%. 14% are unsure or have never heard of her.  This is relatively unchanged from April when 59% viewed her positively and 23% had a negative impression of her.  18% were unsure how to rate her or hadn’t heard of her.
  • Bill Thompson receives a positive rating from 52% of Democrats compared with 17% who have a negative view of him.  About three out of ten Democrats, 31%, are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  In April, 43% of Democrats viewed Thompson favorably while 21% did not.  36% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • Bill de Blasio is viewed favorably by 50% of registered Democrats and unfavorably by 19%.  30% of registered Democrats are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last month, 42% of New York City Democrats viewed him positively, and 23% viewed him negatively.  35%, at that time, were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • 45% of registered Democrats give John Liu a positive rating.  31% have a negative impression of him, and 24% are unsure how to rate him or haven’t heard of him.  In April, 40% viewed him favorably, and 32% viewed him unfavorably.  28% were unsure how to rate him or hadn’t heard of Liu.
  • Sal Albanese remains relatively unknown.  18% of Democrats have a positive impression of him, and 26% view him negatively.  A majority — 55% — are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last month, 18% had a favorable impression of him, and 27% viewed him unfavorably. 55% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • Erick Salgado is the least known candidate in the Democratic field.  60% of registered Democrats are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  13% of Democrats have a positive impression of him while 27% do not.

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Erick Salgado Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Interest in Mayor’s Race Remains Low

Only 41% of registered voters in the city are paying attention to the campaign for mayor.  This includes 12% who are following it very closely and 29% who are watching it closely.  A plurality — 43% — are not following the race very closely, and another 16% are not paying attention to it at all.

These numbers are mostly unchanged from April when 38% of registered voters said they were paying very close or close attention to the race for mayor.  At that time, 45% were not following it very closely, and 18% were not following it at all.

Democrats are not much different in their attentiveness to the campaign than city voters as a whole.  44% of registered Democrats are currently following the campaign for mayor closely, and 55% are not.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race (NYC Registered Voters)

City Moving in Right Direction, Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Steady

A majority of New York City voters — 52% — think the city is moving in the right direction.  37% believe it is going in the wrong direction, and 11% are unsure.  Similarly, when Marist last reported this in April, 55% of registered voters said the city was on the right track.  38% said the city needed a course correction, and 7% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

Mayor Bloomberg’s approval rating also remains steady.  48% give him high marks, including 12% who say Bloomberg is doing an excellent job as mayor and 36% who say he is doing a good job.  30% rate his job performance as fair, and 19% say he is doing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 46% approved of how Bloomberg was performing as mayor. 32% said he was doing a fair job, and 21% rated his job performance as poor.  One percent was unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

38 Responses to “5/28: Weiner Shows Gains on the Heels of Candidacy Announcement”

  1. Anthony Weiner narrowly trails front-runner New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn in Democratic mayoral contest, new poll shows – @maristpoll | Washington Star Journal on May 28th, 2013 11:41 am
  2. WEINER HOT ON HEELS OF COUNCIL SPEAKER IN NY MAYOR’S RACE | reportergary.com on May 28th, 2013 12:06 pm

    [...] his raucous mayoral campaign, is running a close second behind Council Speaker Christine Quinn, according to a Marist poll released today. Mr. Weiner polls at a formidable 19 percent, while Ms. Quinn continues her slide, falling to 24 [...]

  3. Ballot Access News - Poll Shows New York City Democratic Party Run-off Primary Very Likely to Occur on May 28th, 2013 12:35 pm

    [...] to Occur Published on May 28, 2013, by Richard Winger in Uncategorized. Share Email A Marist Poll released May 28 shows that no Democratic candidate for Mayor of New York city now enjoys more than [...]

  4. NYC mayoral poll: Weiner narrowly trails Dem front-runner | The Penn Ave Post on May 28th, 2013 12:47 pm

    [...] City Council Speaker Christine Quinn in New York’s Democratic mayoral contest, according to a new Marist poll. Quinn gets support of 24 percent of registered Democrats, Weiner gets 19 percent, City [...]

  5. Marist Poll « Sister Toldjah Sister Toldjah on May 28th, 2013 1:13 pm

    [...] Wowsers: 5/28: Weiner Shows Gains on the Heels of Candidacy Announcement  [...]

  6. Weiner Closing in Primary, Attack Dogs Let Loose | JHPolitics on May 28th, 2013 1:14 pm

    [...] one bit of news to another. First, the good news for Team Weiner: A new Marist Poll in New York City finds Christine Quinn leading the Democratic mayoral race with 24%, followed by [...]

  7. Weiner NYC Mayor Campaign roll out see’s him gain on Quinn to within single digits… | Politicaldog101.Com on May 28th, 2013 1:56 pm

    [...] More…. Share on Facebook Breaking News, Government, Media, Politics, Polls, Updates, Womenex-Rep Anthony Weiner, Marist NYC Mayor 2013 poll 5/28/13, NY City Council Leader Christine Quinn (D), The 2013 NYC Mayor race ….. ← The 2016 Governor Looks….FiveThirtyEight….. Leave a comment ?0 Comments. [...]

  8. Poll shows Weiner making gains in NYC mayoral raceWinToMac | WinToMac on May 28th, 2013 2:17 pm

    [...] new Marist poll finds that Anthony Weiner had made gains in the potential Democratic primary match-up in the [...]

  9. Does Anthony Weiner Deserve A Second Chance? | on May 28th, 2013 2:29 pm

    [...] a new Marist college poll revealed that Weiner was trailing front runner Christine Quinn, by a mere 5 points, a 6 point jump [...]

  10. Why Mitch McConnell Isn’t as Doomed as This Poll Would Have You Believe « Tony Rocha Official Blog on May 28th, 2013 2:34 pm

    [...] a situation that largely parallels that of Anthony Weiner in New York City. A new poll shows Weiner gaining on his competitors for the Democratic nomination for mayor. Most of Weiner’s competitors aren’t well known by voters. The one who is, [...]

  11. Weiner Gains Ground In The Polls, But It Likely Won’t Be Enough on May 28th, 2013 2:45 pm

    [...] last week, now draws 19 percent of the vote in the crowded primary field, according to the Marist University poll. Quinn, the city council speaker who is trying to become the city’s first openly gay mayor, [...]

  12. Pinski Politics » Weiner “climbs” in poll of New York City mayoral race (at least they didn’t say ______!) on May 28th, 2013 3:15 pm

    [...] God they didn’t say “Weiner rising” or “Weiner shoots up.” …a Marist poll released Tuesday also indicates that a majority of New York City voters say Weiner deserves a second chance. Weiner [...]

  13. Weiner gaining in New York mayor’s race on May 28th, 2013 3:35 pm

    [...] Anthony Weiner is gaining in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, according to a new poll from Marist College. [...]

  14. NYC mayoral candidate pushes for undocumented worker licenses, IDs — MSNBC on May 28th, 2013 4:02 pm

    [...] Blasio’s appearance came as a new Marist poll of New York City registered Democrats showed him in third place with 12%, behind City Council [...]

  15. Weiner gaining in New York mayor's race | TwentyfourSevenHeadlines: Breaking Local, National, World & Sports News on May 28th, 2013 4:15 pm

    [...] Weiner gaining in New York mayor's race May 28th, 2013 Anthony Weiner is gaining in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, according to a new poll from Marist College. [...]

  16. Every1LetsTalk – New York City mayor poll: Anthony Weiner cuts into Christine Quinn’s lead on May 28th, 2013 4:52 pm

    [...] the race last week, now draws 19 percent of the vote in the crowded primary field, according to the Marist University poll. Quinn, the city council speaker who is trying to become the city’s first openly gay mayor, draws [...]

  17. NYC Mayor race: Anthony Weiner running a strong second — MSNBC on May 28th, 2013 6:29 pm

    [...] Within one week of Anthony Weiner announcing that he’s running for New York City mayor, a new Marist poll of registered Democrats shows he trails only frontrunner, Christine Quinn, 24% to 19%. If this [...]

  18. Weiner gaining in New York mayor’s race « Breaking Information on May 28th, 2013 9:43 pm

    [...] Anthony Weiner is gaining in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, according to a new poll from Marist College. [...]

  19. Anthony Weiner Has Already Cut A Huge Chunk Of His Deficit In The New York Mayor’s Race on May 28th, 2013 10:43 pm

    [...] Former U.S. Congressman Anthony Weiner has already cut the deficit in the New York City Mayor race’s Democratic primary in more than half, according to a new Marist College poll released Tuesday. [...]

  20. Weiner gaining in New York mayor's race | TheVoter.orgTheVoter.org on May 28th, 2013 11:51 pm

    [...] Weiner gaining in New York mayor’s race Posted on May 28, 2013 by TheVoter Anthony Weiner is gaining in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, according to a new poll from Marist College. [...]

  21. Weiner climbs in polls in NYC mayoral race | PoliticsTrending.com on May 29th, 2013 3:02 am

    [...] a Marist poll released Tuesday also indicates that a majority of New York City voters say Weiner deserves a [...]

  22. Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Marist offers first numbers for an NYC mayoral runoff | Hotspyer.com on May 29th, 2013 9:22 am

    [...] NYC Mayor: In a first this cycle, Marist has tested a number of matchups in a hypothetical NYC mayoral Democratic runoff, which would be required if no [...]

  23. Poll: Anthony Weiner Marks Gains in New York Mayoral Primary - Israel News Cloud on May 29th, 2013 9:33 am

    [...] the race last week, now draws 19 percent of the vote in the crowded primary field, according to the Marist University poll. Quinn, the city council speaker who is trying to become the city’s first openly gay mayor, draws [...]

  24. Weiner Second in NYC Mayoral Poll on May 29th, 2013 11:36 am
  25. Anthony Weiner v Christine Quinn? She might not even make the NYC runoff - The NYC Info News 24-hours in New York City, delivering breaking news and features about the five boroughs. - The Nyc Info on May 29th, 2013 12:41 pm

    [...] New York City mayor had began disastrously, Weiner actually picked up 4pt in support. The latest Marist poll of the race has Christine Quinn as the very weak front-runner at 24%, Weiner at 19%, Bill de Blasio [...]

  26. Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 5/29/13: Marist offers first numbers for an NYC mayoral runoff | Politicaldog101.Com on May 29th, 2013 12:43 pm

    [...] Mayor: In a first this cycle, Marist has tested a number of matchups in a hypothetical NYC mayoral Democratic runoff, which would be required if [...]

  27. Anthony Weiner gaining in NYC mayoral race — MSNBC on May 29th, 2013 12:47 pm

    [...] former U.S. Congressman is still trailing City Council Speaker Christine Quinn in a new Marist poll but he’s cut her lead to within five points—a four point jump since [...]

  28. Scandal and Redemption in NY Politics | MetroFocus | THIRTEEN on May 29th, 2013 3:14 pm

    [...] non-candidate to being in second place,” Murphy said.  Polling supports Murphy’s assertion.  Marist Poll  showed that among registered Democrats  City Council Speaker Christine Quinn still held onto the lead [...]

  29. Stocking Blue - The Media’s Love Affair with Weiner on May 29th, 2013 5:59 pm

    [...] jump in latest Marist poll.  Plus [...]

  30. Huma Abedin Helping Fundraise For Anthony Weiner - OnyxBook on May 29th, 2013 6:20 pm

    [...] City mayor late last Tuesday, and his support amongst voters has grown in the week since. A Marist poll released Wednesday has City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, the leading candidate, with 24 percent [...]

  31. Huma Abedin Helping Fundraise For Anthony Weiner - EyeOnCelebs on May 29th, 2013 6:44 pm

    [...] City mayor late last Tuesday, and his support amongst voters has grown in the week since. A Marist poll released Wednesday has City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, the leading candidate, with 24 percent [...]

  32. Kristin's Friends » Weiner Gaining in New York Mayor’s Race on June 4th, 2013 8:55 am

    [...] Weiner is gaining in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, according to a new poll from Marist College.The poll shows City Council Speaker Christine Quinn continues to lead, at 24 points, with Weiner [...]

  33. Anthony Weiner gets the Most support from the NYC black Voters… | Politicaldog101.Com on June 11th, 2013 2:52 pm

    [...] theory also seems to be backed up by the polls. The most recent Marist survey, for instance, found that 66 percent of African-Americans surveyed believe Mr. Weiner deserves a [...]

  34. Public Fascination with Creeps on June 12th, 2013 12:17 pm

    [...] true and accurate.” Weiner does not have to confirm that his statements are true or accurate. A poll in late May showed Weiner running second in a crowded field, with 19% [...]

  35. Weiner Won’t Get Women’s Votes but He’ll Take Their Money « Tony Rocha Official Blog on June 19th, 2013 7:20 pm

    [...] in the crowded race, according to a Marist poll. In a head-to-head contest, Marist found Quinn beats Weiner among women by 51 percent to 30 percent, and wins over all by 48 percent to 33 [...]

  36. Anthony Weiner Thrusts His Way Into The Lead In New York City Mayor Race | Business Insider Australia on June 25th, 2013 6:36 pm

    [...] has gained 6 points from a Marist poll that came one week after he announced his candidacy last month. Quinn’s support has dipped 4 [...]

  37. HotNewser | Anthony Weiner Thrusts His Way Into The Lead In New York City Mayor Race on June 25th, 2013 6:56 pm

    [...] has gained 6 points from a Marist poll that came one week after he announced his candidacy last month. Quinn’s support has dipped 4 [...]

  38. Should Eliot Spitzer Be the City’s CFO? | WHCR 90.3 FM BLOG on July 8th, 2013 10:50 am

    [...] is very popular with African Americans–just like Clinton. A Marist survey shows that 66 percent of African-Americans think Weiner deserves a second chance, compared with [...]

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