5/12: Georgia: Perdue Edges Kingston in GOP Primary Contest for U.S. Senate

May 12, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

In a large field of candidates seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Georgia, David Perdue — 23% — is ahead of Jack Kingston — 18% — by 5 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot.  Karen Handel follows in third with 14%.  Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun each have 11%.  22% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete May 12, 2014 Georgia NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll

“Right now, the GOP is headed for a run-off,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If that’s the case, who the top two finishers will be in the first round on May 20th is still in doubt.  Then, the question becomes who’s the second choice of the defeated candidates.”

Among likely Republican primary voters in Georgia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee ballot, here is how the contest for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate stands:

  • 23% David Perdue
  • 18% Jack Kingston
  • 14% Karen Handel
  • 11% Phil Gingrey
  • 11% Paul Broun
  •   1% Derrick Grayson
  • <1% Art Gardner
  •   1% other
  • 22% undecided

How strongly do likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference support their choice for U.S. Senate?  39% are strongly committed to their candidate.  34% are somewhat behind their pick while 22% might vote differently.  Five percent are unsure.  Among the leading candidates, 49% of Kingston’s supporters are firmly committed to him compared with 41% of Handel’s backers and 34% of voters who are behind Purdue.

When it comes to the second choice of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference including early voters and those who voted by absentee ballot, 23% select Perdue.  Handel, Gingrey, and Kingston are each the backup for 13%.  An additional 8% cite Broun.  Grayson and Gardner each receives 2%.  Less than 1% of Republican primary voters with a candidate preference chooses someone else, and 25% are undecided.

Perdue is the second choice for 38% of Kingston’s supporters and 31% of Handel’s backers.  There is less consensus among those who are behind Perdue.  One in five — 20% — selects Kingston while 16% choose Gingrey.  An additional 16% of Perdue’s supporters cite Handel as their second choice.

When it comes to the favorability ratings of the top three candidates, more than six in ten likely Republican primary voters — 61% — have a favorable impression of Perdue.  Nine percent have an unfavorable view of him, and 6% have never heard of Perdue.  24% are unsure how to rate him.

49% of likely Republican primary voters think well of Kingston.  16% have a negative impression of him while 9% have never heard of Kingston.  26% are unsure how to rate him.  Looking at Handel’s favorability, 41% of likely Republican primary voters have a positive opinion of her while 18% have an unfavorable view of her.  14% have never heard of her, and 27% are unsure how to rate her.

Table: 2014 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Georgia (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters with Leaners and Early and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for Republican U.S. Senate Candidates in Georgia (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: Second Choice for Republican U.S. Senate Primary in Georgia (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: Perdue Favorability (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Table: Kingston Favorability (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Table: Handel Favorability (Georgia Likely Republican Primary Voters)

GOP Hopefuls Are Closely Matched with Likely Democratic Rival for November 

Will Saxby Chambliss’ Senate seat remain red or turn blue after he retires?

If the general election for U.S. Senate in Georgia were held today, here is how the contest would stand statewide among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate:

  • 45% of registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate support Perdue against Democrat Michelle Nunn — 41%.  One percent backs someone else, and 13% are undecided.
  • Broun — 43% — and Nunn — 42% — are neck and neck.  One percent supports someone else, and 14% are undecided.
  • Kingston is even against Nunn.  Both Kingston and Nunn garner 43% of the vote.  One percent supports another candidate, and 13% are undecided.
  • 44% support Nunn against Gingrey who receives 42%.  One percent backs someone else, and 13% are undecided.
  • Nunn garners 42% to 39% for Handel.  One percent chooses another candidate, and 18% are undecided.

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Perdue/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Broun/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Kingston/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Gingrey/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2014 Race for U.S. Senate in Georgia: Handel/Nunn (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Candidates Unknown to Many Statewide

38% of Georgia residents have a favorable view of Nunn.  21% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 15% have never heard of her.  26% are unsure how to rate her.  Among registered voters, 41% like Nunn while 22% have a lesser opinion of her.  11% of voters have never heard of Nunn, and 27% are unsure how to rate her.

Perdue receives a similar rating.  38% have a positive opinion of him.  19% have an unfavorable view of him while 13% have never heard of Perdue.  29% are unsure how to rate him.  Looking at registered voters statewide, 40% have a favorable impression of Perdue while 20% have an unfavorable one.  One in ten — 10% — has never heard of him, and 30% are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Kingston’s favorable rating, 30% have a positive view of him.  23% have a negative opinion of him, and nearly one in five — 18% — has never heard of Kingston.  29% are unsure how to rate him.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these opinions.  32% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Kingston while 24% have an unfavorable one.  14% have never heard of Kingston, and 30% are unsure how to rate him.

27% of Georgians have a favorable opinion of Handel and 20% have an unfavorable impression of her.  24% have never heard of Handel and an additional three in ten — 30% — are unsure how to rate her.  Among registered voters in the state, 29% think well of Handel.  21% have a lesser impression of her, and one in five — 20% — has never heard of her.  30% are unsure how to rate her.

Table: Michelle Nunn Favorability (Georgia Adults)

Table: David Perdue Favorability (Georgia Adults)

Table: Jack Kingston Favorability (Georgia Adults)

Table: Karen Handel Favorability (Georgia Adults)

The Good and Bad of the New Health Care Law

36% of residents think the new health care law is a good idea.  This includes 28% who strongly believe it is a good idea and 8% who say it is somewhat of a good idea.  Half of adults — 50% — say it is a bad idea.  Included here are 45% who strongly feel this way and 5% who just say it is a bad idea.  10% have no opinion on the issue, and 4% are unsure.

Looking at registered voters, 36% think the health care law is a good idea.  A majority — 52% — says it is a bad one.  Nine percent have no opinion on the issue, and 4% are unsure.

Table: Is the New Health Care Law a Good or Bad Idea (Georgia Adults)

Deal Leads Carter in Contest for Georgia Governor 

In the race for Georgia governor, Republican incumbent Nathan Deal has the support of 50% of registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  His Democratic challenger, Jason Carter, garners 40% while 1% backs another candidate.  10% are undecided.

Key points:

  • Party ID.  There is a partisan divide.  89% of Republicans support Deal while 83% of Democrats are for Carter.  Independent voters are key.  A majority — 53% — is behind Deal while 34% back Carter.
  • Gender.  There is a gender gap.  A majority of men — 57% — supports Deal while 34% are for Carter.  Women divide.  45% back Carter while 44% support Deal.
  • Age.  A majority of voters 45 and older — 54% — is behind Deal while 37% support Carter.  Younger voters divide.  46% of those under 45 are for Deal while 44% are for Carter.

Table: 2014 Race for Governor in Georgia: Deal/Carter (Georgia Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Majority Approves of Deal’s Job Performance 

Do Georgia residents approve of how Governor Deal is performing in office?  55% approve of how he is doing his job while 26% disapprove.  19% are unsure.  Among registered voters statewide, 58% give Deal a thumbs-up while 27% believe he is missing the mark.  15% are unsure.

Table: Governor Nathan Deal Approval Rating (Georgia Adults) 

Nearly Half Disapprove of Obama’s Job Performance

49% of Georgia residents disapprove of how President Barack Obama is doing his job.  41% approve, and 10% are unsure.  Among registered voters statewide, 50% think the president’s performance has fallen short while 41% approve of the president’s job performance.  Eight percent are unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Georgia Adults)

A Country Off Track? 

59% of Georgia residents think the country is moving in the wrong direction.  32% believe it is on the correct path, and 9% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  59% of voters report the country needs a new compass.  32% say it is on the right road while 8% are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Georgia Adults)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

2 Responses to “5/12: Georgia: Perdue Edges Kingston in GOP Primary Contest for U.S. Senate”

  1. Senate 2014 Marist Poll: Democrats doing well in 3 Battleground States… Daniel counter…. | Politicaldog101.Com on May 12th, 2014 11:09 am

    [...] More…. [...]

  2. The tea party is losing on May 12th, 2014 11:32 am

    [...] In that race, both Reps. Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun, who are aligned with the tea party, lag behind, tied for fourth place, in the open primary to succeed retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.). Businessman David Perdue leads at 23 percent, followed by Rep. Jack Kingston at 18 percent and former secretary of state Karen Handel at 14 percent. Gingrey and Broun are at 11 percent and are also the second choices of relatively few voters. The GOP favors Perdue, Kingston and Handel. [...]

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