3/30: Romney Leads Santorum by 7 Points in Wisconsin

March 30, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/Marist Poll

In the race for the Republican nomination in Wisconsin, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum face another competitive contest in the Midwest.  Romney has 40% to 33% for Santorum among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, early voters, and those who voted absentee in the state.

Click Here for Complete March 30, 2012 Wisconsin NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete March 30, 2012 Wisconsin NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands in Wisconsin:

  • 40% for Mitt Romney
  • 33% for Rick Santorum
  • 11% for Ron Paul
  • 8% for Newt Gingrich
  • 7% are undecided

“The pattern of support is similar in Wisconsin as elsewhere,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The advantage for Romney is the Wisconsin GOP primary electorate more closely resembles states he has carried.”

Key points:

  • 43% of likely Republican primary voters who are liberal or moderate support Romney compared with 24% for Santorum.  Romney — 42% — also leads Santorum — 33% — among conservatives.  However, Santorum — 42% — bests Romney — 33% — among those who are very conservative.
  • Among those who strongly support the Tea Party, Santorum has an 8 percentage point lead over Romney, 40% to 32%.  In contrast, Romney — 42% — has the advantage over Santorum — 31% — among those who are not Tea Party supporters.
  • Evangelical Christians favor Santorum 40% to 29% for Romney.
  • Romney — 47% — is ahead of Santorum — 32% — among those who earn $75,000 or more a year.  Those who earn less than $75,000 divide.  35% back Romney while the same proportion — 35% — is for Santorum.     

Table: 2012 Wisconsin Republican Presidential Primary (WI Likely Voters with Leaners, Early Voters, and Absentees)

Lukewarm Support for Candidates

Only 47% of likely Republican primary voters in Wisconsin are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  39% are somewhat in their candidate’s camp.  13% might vote differently on Election Day, and 1% is unsure.

Key points:

  • 49% of Santorum’s supporters strongly support him compared with 46% of Romney’s backers, 45% of those who are behind Paul, and 40% of those who are for Gingrich.

Table: Intensity of Support (WI Likely Voters)

Romney and Santorum Head to Head: Advantage Still Romney

What if Romney and Santorum were the only two candidates in the Republican contest?  46% would back Romney while 41% would support Santorum.  One percent would choose another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Wisconsin Republican Presidential Primary between Romney and Santorum (WI Likely Voters)

Obama Leads Potential GOP Challengers

In a state Barack Obama carried by 14 points in 2008, President Obama outpaces all of his Republican challengers.

Among registered voters in Wisconsin:

  • Obama — 51% — leads Santorum — 38% — by 13 percentage points.  11% are undecided.
  • 51% support Obama compared with 36% for Paul.  13% are undecided.
  • Obama receives 52% to 35% for Romney.  13% are undecided.
  • President Obama — 56% — has the widest lead against Gingrich — 31%.  14% are undecided.

In each matchup, including the Obama-Romney tossup, independent and Republican voters are more undecided than Democrats.  Independents who lean toward the Republican party and those who do not lean toward any party are more likely to be undecided in their choice for president than independents who lean toward the Democratic party.

“President Obama is running behind his 2008 vote,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, the wide gap between Obama and his potential opponents results from a lack of consensus among Republican and some independent voters behind the eventual GOP nominee.”

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Santorum (WI Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Paul (WI Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (WI Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Gingrich (WI Registered Voters)

Only 37% Very Enthusiastic to Vote in November

Less than four in ten Wisconsin registered voters — 37% — say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November’s general election.  About one-third — 33% — are somewhat enthusiastic while 19% are not too enthusiastic.  11% are not enthusiastic at all.

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (WI Registered Voters)

Dems Viewed as Having Wider Appeal… Battle with GOP on Social Issues

When it comes to the party which does a better job appealing to voters who are not among its hard-core supporters, 48% of registered voters in Wisconsin say the Democratic party better accomplishes this goal.  32% disagree and believe the Republicans attract those who are not as fervent in their support.  A notable 20% are unsure.

Key points:

  • Looking at independent voters, a plurality — 44% — views the Democrats as appealing to less ardent supporters compared with 28% who have this view of the Republicans.  28% are unsure.

When it comes to social issues, Democrats edge Republicans.  45% of Wisconsin registered voters think the Democrats more closely represent their views on these issues while 41% report the Republicans come closer to their positions.  14% are unsure.

Key points:

  • 44% of independent voters identify more closely with the Democrats on social issues compared with 36% who think the Republicans come closer to their position.  One in five — 20% — is unsure.

Table: Party which Does Better Job at Appealing to those who are Not Hard-Core Supporters (WI Registered Voters)

Table: Party which Most Closely Reflects Views on Social Issues (WI Registered Voters)

Obama Approval Rating at 50%

Half of registered voters in Wisconsin — 50% — approve of the job President Obama is doing in office.  40% disapprove, and 10% are unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Wisconsin (WI Registered Voters)

Better Economic Days Ahead, Says Majority

Has the U.S. economy turned the economic corner?  52% of registered voters in Wisconsin believe the worst of the nation’s economic news is over while 40% think the worst is still to come.  Seven percent are unsure.

Looking at the state of the U.S. economy in the next 12 months, more than three in ten Wisconsin registered voters — 32% — think it will get better.  19% report it will get worse, and 45% believe it will stay about the same.  Three percent are unsure.

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse? (WI Registered Voters)

Table: The U.S. Economy in the Next Year (WI Registered Voters)

Country Needs Course Correction, Says Majority

55% of Wisconsin registered voters believe the nation is off on the wrong track while 39% say it is headed in the right direction.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (WI Registered Voters)

Voters Divide about Walker’s Job Performance, Recall Election

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is facing a recall election, and right now, registered voters in the state are torn about his performance as governor.  48% approve of the job he is doing while 48% disapprove.  Four percent are unsure.

Key points:

  • There is a partisan divide.  Most Republicans — 91% — approve of Walker’s job performance while most Democrats — 84% — disapprove.  Independent voters in Wisconsin also divide.  47% approve while the same proportion — 47% — disapproves.

Will voters support Walker in the upcoming recall election?  46% say they will support Governor Walker while 48% plan to back the Democratic candidate.  Six percent are undecided.

Key points:

  • Independent voters divide here as well.  46% favor the Democratic candidate while 45% are for Walker.

Table:  Scott Walker’s Approval Rating (WI Registered Voters)

Table: Recall Election for Governor (WI Registered Voters)

More Republican Voters Following Recall Election than GOP Presidential Primary

A majority of likely Republican primary voters in Wisconsin are focusing more on state politics than national politics.  51% say they are tracking the recall election more closely than the Republican primary.  37% report the opposite to be the case, and 12% are unsure.

Table: Which Race Are You Following More Closely: the Recall Election or GOP Presidential Primary (WI Likely Voters)

Baldwin with Plurality Support in U.S. Senate Race

In the race for the open U.S. Senate seat in Wisconsin, Democrat Tammy Baldwin receives the support of 45% of registered voters in the state.  A generic Republican candidate garners 40%, and 16% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical U.S. Senate Tossup in Ohio: Baldwin/Republican Candidate (WI Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

Comments

10 Responses to “3/30: Romney Leads Santorum by 7 Points in Wisconsin”

  1. Romney Leads in Wisconsin, but Republicans' Focus Is on Recall Election - NYTimes.com on March 30th, 2012 11:00 am

    [...] has a seven-point advantage over Rick Santorum in the Wisconsin presidential primary, according to an NBC News/Marist poll released Friday.Among likely Republican primary voters, Mr. Romney leads Mr. Santorum 40 percent to [...]

  2. Wisconsin Polls Show Mitt Romney Ahead | Test on March 30th, 2012 12:57 pm

    [...] most recent survey, released on Friday by NBC and Marist College and conducted March 26-27, shows former Massachusetts Gov. Romney with a seven-percentage-point [...]

  3. Wisconsin Polls Show Mitt Romney Ahead | My Blog on March 31st, 2012 3:10 am

    [...] most recent survey, released on Friday by NBC and Marist College and conducted March 26-27, shows former Massachusetts Gov. Romney with a seven-percentage-point [...]

  4. Romney holding lead over Santorum in Wisc. but Obama tops both – Los Angeles Times | Birmingham Christian Radio on March 31st, 2012 7:07 am

    [...] new NBC News/Marist Poll places Mitt Romney comfortably ahead of Rick Santorum in Wisconsin just four days prior to the [...]

  5. Romney holding lead over Santorum in Wisc. but Obama tops both – Los Angeles Times | Baton Rouge Christian Radio on March 31st, 2012 8:49 am

    [...] new NBC News/Marist Poll places Mitt Romney comfortably ahead of Rick Santorum in Wisconsin just four days prior to the [...]

  6. Isac Ferland on March 31st, 2012 10:38 am

    Can’t say I would be surprised to see Romney lead in Wisconsin, but I was actually expecting Ron Paul to do a bit better in Wisconsin and to rob some votes from Santorum..

  7. Live Blog And Results: Romney Wins Maryland, Looks Strong In DC, Wis. | Reviews on April 3rd, 2012 8:40 pm

    [...] an NBC/Marist poll conducted in Wisconsin last week, 48 percent of people approved of the job Walker is doing while an [...]

  8. marcell idoke on April 19th, 2012 8:52 am

    Only 37% Very Enthusiastic to Vote in November

    I think this will grow in the next few months. but probably it depends a lot on what the candidates will have to offer, or bribe, the voters.

  9. Wisconsin Polls Show Mitt Romney Ahead | thepalmbeachproper.com on May 22nd, 2012 1:46 pm

    [...] most recent survey, released on Friday by NBC and Marist College and conducted March 26-27, shows former Massachusetts Gov. Romney with a seven-percentage-point [...]

  10. Wisconsin Polls Show Mitt Romney Ahead « Hill Politics on June 1st, 2012 11:09 pm

    [...] most recent survey, released on Friday by NBC and Marist College and conducted March 26-27, shows former Massachusetts Gov. Romney with a seven-percentage-point [...]

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