2/5: Trump’s Lead Narrows as Rubio and Cruz Close Gap in New Hampshire

February 5, 2016 by  
Filed under Election 2016, Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Just days after his defeat in Iowa, businessman Donald Trump, 30%, leads his closest competitors, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, 17%, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 15%, among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have voted absentee.  While Trump’s support is virtually unchanged from the 31% he had, his lead has declined from a 19 point advantage in the previous NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll to 13 points now.  Rubio has gained momentum in the Granite State, up 6 points, following his strong third place finish in the Iowa caucus.  Cruz had 12% in last week’s New Hampshire poll.

Trump continues to lead his GOP rivals among most key demographic groups.  He runs best among likely Republican primary voters who are under 30, do not practice a religion, those without a college degree, Tea Party supporters, or men.  But, Rubio has made notable gains across the board.  Cruz does best and leads all competitors among likely GOP primary voters who describe themselves as very conservative.

Among self-identified Republicans, Trump’s lead has been cut in half.  He now has 29% to 19% each for Rubio and Cruz.  Among independents, Trump has 31% followed by Rubio with 16%, Ohio Governor John Kasich with 14%, and Cruz with 11%.  Last week, Trump had a 12 point lead over his nearest rival, Kasich, among independents planning to vote in the GOP primary.

“Trump leads, but will he close it out this time?” asks Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As in Iowa, Rubio and Cruz are second choice favorites.”

67% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference report they strongly support their choice of candidate, up from 59% previously.  Large proportions of Trump’s supporters, 78%, and Cruz’s backers, 76%, express a high level of commitment to their candidate selection.  54% of those behind Rubio say the same.  Seven percent are undecided, and 11% say they might vote differently on Primary Day.

When it comes to the second choice of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Rubio, 20%, and Cruz, 16%, are the preferred selections.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Trump are the only other candidates with double digits.

Complete February 5, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release of the Republican Primary Contest in New Hampshire

Complete February 5, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete February 5, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for New Hampshire

Nature of the Sample for New Hampshire

Comments

13 Responses to “2/5: Trump’s Lead Narrows as Rubio and Cruz Close Gap in New Hampshire”

  1. HUFFPOLLSTER: New Hampshire Primaries Could Bring More Surprises - on February 5th, 2016 8:42 am

    [...] much from his Iowa win, staying at a fairly consistent average of 13 percent. [CNN/UNH/WMUR, ARG, NBC/WSJ/Marist, UMass Lowell/7 News, [...]

  2. HUFFPOLLSTER: New Hampshire Primaries Could Bring More Surprises | | on February 5th, 2016 10:07 am

    [...] much from his Iowa win, staying at a fairly consistent average of 13 percent. [CNN/UNH/WMUR, ARG, NBC/WSJ/Marist, UMass Lowell/7 News, [...]

  3. Marco Rubio gaining ground in new New Hampshire NBC/WSJ/Marist poll - Florida Politics on February 5th, 2016 11:01 am

    [...] Marco Rubio is gaining ground in New Hampshire, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. [...]

  4. Friday NH GOP Model Update: Rubio Rising; Trump Still Likely to Win – CabPolitical on February 5th, 2016 2:29 pm

    [...] News (2.04); MassINC/WBUR (2.04); UMassLowell/7News (2.04); CNN/UNH/WMUR (2.04); NBC/WSJ/Marist (2.03); Franklin Pierce/RKM/Boston Herald (1.30); Emerson (1.26); CBS/YouGov (1.21). Share [...]

  5. New poll puts Marco Rubio at 2nd place in New Hampshire - SaintPetersBlog on February 5th, 2016 2:30 pm

    [...] Marco Rubio is gaining ground in New Hampshire, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. [...]

  6. The 2016 Race: The Way Ted Cruz Won in Iowa Suggests Trouble Ahead | KWOTABLE on February 5th, 2016 3:54 pm

    [...] far, it doesn’t seem as if Mr. Cruz is breaking through. The most recent NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of South Carolina showed him with just 11 percent of the moderate vote. That could change, but [...]

  7. Marco Rubio, in the spotlight of rivals and polls – Eglobalpost on February 5th, 2016 9:07 pm

    [...] second process that extend to the summer-, Rubio returns to msculo . According to the last survey The Marist Poll for the newspaper The Wall Street Journal and NBC Senator gets the second position. A since they [...]

  8. Sat. NH GOP Model: Trump Still Looks Good; Fight for 2nd Looks Real – CabPolitical on February 6th, 2016 9:43 am

    [...] (2.04); Gravis/One America News (2.04); MassINC/WBUR (2.04); CNN/UNH/WMUR (2.04); NBC/WSJ/Marist (2.03); UMass Amherst/WBZ/YouGov (2.02); Franklin Pierce/RKM/Boston Herald (1.30); Emerson (1.26). Share [...]

  9. Sun. GOP NH Model: Trump Looking a Good Bet; 2nd Place Wide Open – CabPolitical on February 7th, 2016 7:30 pm

    [...] Suffolk/Boston Globe (2.04); Gravis/One America News (2.04); MassINC/WBUR (2.04); NBC/WSJ/Marist (2.03); UMass Amherst/WBZ/YouGov (2.02); Emerson (1.26). Share this:ShareClick to share on Twitter (Opens [...]

  10. Final NH GOP Model: Trump Set to Win; 2nd Place a Wild Ride – CabPolitical on February 9th, 2016 9:31 am

    [...] Suffolk/Boston Globe (2.04); Gravis/One America News (2.07); MassINC/WBUR (2.04); NBC/WSJ/Marist (2.03); UMass Amherst/WBZ/YouGov (2.02). Share this:ShareClick to share on Twitter (Opens in new [...]

  11. Goldie Taylor says Hillary Clinton has Asked the Black Church to Save her | BCNN1 – Black Christian News Network on February 11th, 2016 12:50 am

    [...] to a Marist Poll released February 5, the Clinton “firewall” has not cracked and she is leading Sanders by a hefty [...]

  12. Goldie Taylor says Hillary Clinton has Asked the Black Church to Save her – BCNN1 WP on February 11th, 2016 12:51 am

    [...] to a Marist Poll released February 5, the Clinton “firewall” has not cracked and she is leading Sanders by a hefty [...]

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    [...] to a Marist Poll released February 5, the Clinton “firewall” has not cracked and she is leading Sanders by a hefty [...]

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