2/15: 2016 Wide Open GOP Field in Early Caucus and Primary States… Clinton Solid Front-Runner on Democratic Side

February 15, 2015 by  
Filed under Election 2016, Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

Taking an early look at the key presidential caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, a Republican front-runner fails to emerge.  In Iowa, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker vie for the top spot among the state’s potential Republican electorate.

In New Hampshire, Bush, Walker, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie each receives double-digit support.  Turning to South Carolina, the state’s favorite son, Senator Lindsey Graham, battles Bush, Walker, Huckabee, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson for the lead.

The picture is much clearer on the Democratic side.  Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the odds-on favorite for her party’s nomination.  Clinton outpaces her closest Democratic competitors by very wide margins in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

However, in hypothetical general election matchups, despite edging her GOP rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton falls short of 50% in each of the three states polled.  In South Carolina, when paired against Bush or Walker, Clinton garners about what President Obama received in 2012 against Mitt Romney.

“Top tier?  The morning line for these critical states points to a rough and tumble Republican nomination battle.  Seven of the 11 potential GOP candidates has double-digit support in, at least, one of the states, but no one breaks 20% anywhere,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Not so for the Democrats where Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead.”

 

Complete February 15, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina

Complete February 15, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Tables of Iowa

Complete February 15, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire

Complete February 15, 2015 NBC News/Marist Poll Tables of South Carolina

 

Republicans and Democrats Satisfied with Candidates

Poll points:

Clinton Ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire, Not in South Carolina

Poll Points:

  • Among registered voters in Iowa, Clinton, 48%, is ahead of Bush, 40%.  Clinton, 49%, also outpaces Walker, 38%, statewide.
  • In New Hampshire, Clinton, 48%, edges Bush, 42%.  Against Walker, Clinton has 49% to 42% for Walker.
  • Bush, receives 48%, and Clinton, 45%, in South Carolina.  Clinton garners 46%, and Walker receives 46% when matched in the state.

Voters on the Issues

In Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, more than six in ten voters in each state find a candidate who favors raising taxes on the wealthy to be acceptable.  This is especially true in Iowa, where 73% of voters have this view.  Majorities of voters in all three states also find a candidate who supports repealing the federal health care law, who backs immigration reform, or who promotes action to combat climate change to be preferable.  A candidate who supports Common Core education or favors increased military action against ISIS is also deemed satisfactory to majorities of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

However, registered voters are less likely to find a candidate who opposes same-sex marriage to be acceptable.

On many of these questions, there is a notable divide between the potential Republican and Democratic electorates.

Poll points:

 

Job Creation and Economic Growth Key Issue

Residents in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina consider job creation to be the most important issue in the 2016 election.  Jobs and the economy is also the most pressing concern for the potential Democratic and Republican electorates with the exception of Iowa where the deficit and government spending is the top priority for the potential Republican electorate for 2016.

Poll points:

  • 30% of adults in Iowa consider job creation and economic growth to be the most important issue in the 2016 presidential election.  Deficit and government spending, 21%, military action against ISIS, 17%, and health care, 15%, follow.  11% cite income equality while looking out for the interests of women is the priority for 3% of Iowa residents.
  • Among Iowa’s potential Republican electorate, the deficit and government spending, 32%, tops the list followed by military action against ISIS, 25%, and jobs, 23%.  The potential Democratic electorate prioritizes jobs, 32%, followed by health care, 20%, and income equality, 19%.
  • There is little consensus about Iowans’ second most pressing issue.  Similar proportions of adults mention job creation, 24%, health care, 22%, and the deficit and government spending, 20%.  15% put military action against ISIS at the top of their list while 12% cite income equality.  Six percent select looking out for the interests of women.
  • Job creation and economic growth, 33%, is the most important issue to New Hampshire adults.  The deficit and government spending, 19%, health care, 18%, and military action against ISIS, 14% follow.  11% place income equality at the top of their priority list while only 2% think looking out for the interests of women to be the most important issue in the upcoming election.
  • When looking at New Hampshire’s potential Republican electorate, jobs, 33%, rank number one.  The deficit and government spending with 28% and military action against ISIS at 20% follow.  Among the potential Democratic electorate, jobs, 34%, is tops followed by health care and income equality, each at 21%.
  • When it comes to the second choice issue for New Hampshire adults, job creation and economic growth, 22%, and health care, 22%, top the list.  Military action against ISIS, 20%, and the deficit and government spending, 18%, are close behind.  Income equality, 9%, and looking out for the interests of women, 7%, round out the list.
  • 32% of South Carolina adults think the key issue in the 2016 election is job creation and economic growth.  Health care, 20%, military action against ISIS, 18%, and the deficit and government spending, 15%, also rate highly.  Eight percent believe income equality is the most crucial topic of discussion while women’s interests receive 3%.
  • South Carolina’s potential Republican electorate points to jobs, 29%, as the top priority for 2016.  The issues of military action against ISIS with 28% and the deficit and government spending at 24% are also seen as important.  For South Carolina’s potential Democratic electorate, jobs, 35%, is crucial followed by health care, 28%, and income equality, 15%.
  • Looking at the second most important issue for South Carolina adults, 25% choose job creation and economic growth.  23% select health care and 22% pick the deficit and government spending.  14% mention military action against ISIS, and 8% cite income equality.  Seven percent think looking out for the interests of women should be the priority.

U.S. Senate Race in New Hampshire Competitive

Looking at the 2016 election for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan and incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte are closely matched. 

Poll points:

  • 48% of New Hampshire registered voters support Hassan in the race for U.S. Senate while Ayotte garners 44%.  Seven percent are undecided.

Approval Rating Roundup

In Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, President Barack Obama’s job performance rating is upside down.  The governors in each state are rated highly.

Poll points:

Marist Poll Methodology for Iowa

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables for Iowa

Marist Poll Methodology for New Hampshire

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables for New Hampshire

Marist Poll Methodology for South Carolina

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables for South Carolina

 

Comments

29 Responses to “2/15: 2016 Wide Open GOP Field in Early Caucus and Primary States… Clinton Solid Front-Runner on Democratic Side”

  1. New Rick Perry ad doesn’t mention Texas at all | KXAN.com on February 16th, 2015 6:00 pm

    [...] new NBC News/Marist poll shows the former Texas Governor has a lot of work to do in the first three presidential contest [...]

  2. The Fix: Deal-breakers for GOP voters: Common Core, immigration reform and … opposition to gay marriage? | Local National News on February 17th, 2015 7:30 am

    [...] News and Marist College are out with a batch of new 2016 primary polls. And as you might expect, Common Core, immigration reform, belief in man-made climate [...]

  3. HUFFPOLLSTER: Christie Trails Clinton By 23 Points In New Jersey - DailyScene.comDailyScene.com on February 17th, 2015 8:17 am

    [...] NBC/MARIST POLLS IA/NH/SC – Mark Murray: "Less than a year before the first presidential contests begin, a trio of new NBC News/Marist polls show that the Republican race is wide open in the early nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In fact, seven different possible Republican candidates get double-digit support in at least one of the states. But only two candidates — former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker — are in double digits in all three states. By comparison, the Democratic nomination contest is much less competitive in these three states. In Iowa, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Vice President Joe Biden by more than 50 points, 68 percent to 12 percent. She's ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., by the same margin in New Hampshire, 69 percent to 13 percent. And in South Carolina, Clinton has a 45-point advantage over Biden, 65 percent to 20 percent. The NBC/Marist polls did not include Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in these trial heats because she continues to insist — in both the present and future tenses — that she won't be running for president in 2016." [NBC, full results via Marist] [...]

  4. HUFFPOLLSTER: Christie Trails Clinton By 23 Points In New Jersey | Daily News on February 17th, 2015 8:24 am

    [...] NBC/MARIST POLLS IA/NH/SC – Mark Murray: “Less than a year before the first presidential contests begin, a trio of new NBC News/Marist polls show that the Republican race is wide open in the early nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In fact, seven different possible Republican candidates get double-digit support in at least one of the states. But only two candidates — former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker — are in double digits in all three states. By comparison, the Democratic nomination contest is much less competitive in these three states. In Iowa, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Vice President Joe Biden by more than 50 points, 68 percent to 12 percent. She’s ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., by the same margin in New Hampshire, 69 percent to 13 percent. And in South Carolina, Clinton has a 45-point advantage over Biden, 65 percent to 20 percent. The NBC/Marist polls did not include Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in these trial heats because she continues to insist — in both the present and future tenses — that she won’t be running for president in 2016.” [NBC, full results via Marist] [...]

  5. Citizens United to honor ‘Duck Dynasty’ star with free speech award | Local National News on February 17th, 2015 4:29 pm

    [...] pointed to an NBC News/Marist poll released on Sunday which found that roughly 50 percent of Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire and [...]

  6. Gay Weddings Prepare to Crash GOP Primaries | Drawnlines Politics on February 17th, 2015 5:01 pm

    [...] helping matters at all is a new poll by NBC News and Marist College. They surveyed a little over 1,000 adults in each of the three states important to the early stages [...]

  7. Poll finds GOP candidates' opposition to gay marriage a 'deal-breaker' even for Republican voters — LiberalVoiceLiberalVoice — Your source for everything about liberals and progressives! — News and tweets about everything on February 17th, 2015 5:17 pm

    [...] was an unexpected find in the most recent NBC News/Marist poll, making opposition to same-sex marriage almost as taboo with GOP voters as raising taxes on the [...]

  8. Poll finds GOP candidates’ opposition to gay marriage a ‘deal-breaker’ even for Republican voters | My Liberal Life on February 17th, 2015 5:50 pm

    [...] was an unexpected find in the most recent NBC News/Marist poll, making opposition to same-sex marriage almost as taboo with GOP voters as raising taxes on the [...]

  9. Poll finds GOP candidates’ opposition to gay marriage a ‘deal-breaker’ even for Republican voters - Online Political Blog on February 17th, 2015 6:09 pm

    [...] was an unexpected find in the most recent NBC News/Marist poll, making opposition to same-sex marriage almost as taboo with GOP voters as raising taxes on the [...]

  10. POLL: Opposing Marriage Equality May Hurt GOP Candidates | TKG News on February 17th, 2015 7:18 pm

    [...] a new NBC News/Marist College poll, about half of likely Republican voters in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire and South Carolina [...]

  11. POLL: Opposing Marriage Equality May Hurt GOP Candidates | OnGossip on February 17th, 2015 8:14 pm

    [...] a new NBC News/Marist College poll, about half of likely Republican voters in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire and South Carolina [...]

  12. Poll Shows GOP Gay Marriage Opposition "Unacceptable" for Voters - theoutmost.com - Gay Ireland News & Entertainmenttheoutmost.com on February 18th, 2015 7:54 am

    [...] primary polls, conducted by NBC and Marist College, show that about half of likely GOP caucus and primary voters [...]

  13. Here’s how over the gay marriage debate really is | Rare on February 18th, 2015 9:51 am

    [...] Washington Post reports (emphasis added): NBC News and Marist College are out with a batch of new 2016 primary polls. And as you might expect, Common Core, immigration reform, belief in man-made climate change and [...]

  14. Gay Weddings Prepare to Crash GOP Primaries - iVoter.com | iVoter.com on February 18th, 2015 10:52 am

    [...] helping matters at all is a new poll by NBC News and Marist College. They surveyed a little over 1,000 adults in each of the three states important to the early stages [...]

  15. Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina open to candidates who back gay marriage « Hot Air | Conservative News on February 19th, 2015 1:56 am

    [...] and Aaron Blake, I’m skeptical but it’s hard to argue with results from Marist that are this consistent across three very different [...]

  16. Will Scott Walker Walk the Talk on Common Core? | American Principles Project on February 19th, 2015 9:43 am

    [...] so he’s walking his talk.  Otherwise he’s just looking at the current polls instead of listening to parents outraged by the standards.  That won’t pass the smell test [...]

  17. Republicans Need to Wake Up to What GOP Voters Actually Say on Gay Marriage | Care2 Causes on February 19th, 2015 10:02 am

    [...] [...]

  18. Gay marriage as a constitutional right is so popular that even Republicans are coming around – Poll « Hot Air | Conservative News on February 20th, 2015 5:26 am

    [...] release of a variety of polls of Republican voters in early primary states via NBC News/Marist University this week suggested that even the GOP knows that the writing is on the wall. Only a narrow majority [...]

  19. Here’s how over the gay marriage debate really is | Slantpoint Libertarian on February 20th, 2015 6:00 pm

    [...] you. WaPo reports (emphasis added): NBC News and Marist College are out with a batch of new 2016 primary polls. And as you might expect, Common Core, immigration reform, belief in man-made climate change and [...]

  20. Will Scott Walker Walk the Talk on Common Core? on March 3rd, 2015 12:07 pm

    [...] so he’s walking his talk.  Otherwise he’s just looking at the current polls instead of listening to parents outraged by the standards.  That won’t pass the smell test [...]

  21. HUFFPOLLSTER: Christie Trails Clinton By 23 Points In New Jersey | Political Ration on March 4th, 2015 6:17 am

    [...] NBC/MARIST POLLS IA/NH/SC – Mark Murray: “Less than a year before the first presidential contests begin, a trio of new NBC News/Marist polls show that the Republican race is wide open in the early nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In fact, seven different possible Republican candidates get double-digit support in at least one of the states. But only two candidates — former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker — are in double digits in all three states. By comparison, the Democratic nomination contest is much less competitive in these three states. In Iowa, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Vice President Joe Biden by more than 50 points, 68 percent to 12 percent. She’s ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., by the same margin in New Hampshire, 69 percent to 13 percent. And in South Carolina, Clinton has a 45-point advantage over Biden, 65 percent to 20 percent. The NBC/Marist polls did not include Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in these trial heats because she continues to insist — in both the present and future tenses — that she won’t be running for president in 2016.” [NBC, full results via Marist] [...]

  22. 300 Republicans Call on Supreme Court to Recognize Gay Marriage on March 5th, 2015 8:00 pm

    [...] the stage for potential clashes. But the political ground is shifting. According to an NBC/Marist survey last month, roughly half of likely GOP caucus and primary voters in Iowa, South Carolina, and New [...]

  23. Free Wallpaper News | More Than 300 Republicans Call on Supreme Court to Recognize Gay Marriage Nationally on March 5th, 2015 8:12 pm

    [...] the stage for potential clashes. But the political ground is shifting. According to an NBC/Marist survey last month, roughly half of likely GOP caucus and primary voters in Iowa, South Carolina, and New [...]

  24. More Than 300 Republicans Call on Supreme Court to Recognize Gay Marriage Nationally | USA Press on March 5th, 2015 8:14 pm

    [...] the stage for potential clashes. But the political ground is shifting. According to an NBC/Marist survey last month, roughly half of likely GOP caucus and primary voters in Iowa, South Carolina, and New [...]

  25. More Than 300 Republicans Call on Supreme Court to Recognize Gay Marriage Nationally | The Fifth Column on March 6th, 2015 7:36 am

    [...] the stage for potential clashes. But the political ground is shifting. According to an NBC/Marist survey last month, roughly half of likely GOP caucus and primary voters in Iowa, South Carolina, and New [...]

  26. Rand Sounds Off On Indefinite Detention- Next POTUS Must Support the Entire Bill of Rights | Ben Swann Truth In Media on March 24th, 2015 9:51 am

    [...] most recent poll (NBC News/Marist) taken in New Hampshire has Senator Paul in 3rd place at 14% behind current Wisconsin Governor Scott [...]

  27. Republican Support For Same-Sex Marriage On The Rise on April 2nd, 2015 12:04 pm

    [...] when it comes to Republicans: NBC News and Marist College are out with a batch of new 2016 primary polls. And as you might expect, Common Core, immigration reform, belief in man-made climate [...]

  28. Hillary Clinton, culture warrior on gay rights - The Washington Post on April 13th, 2015 1:42 pm

    [...] in February, The Post’s Aaron Blake reported an incredible finding in the NBC News-Marist poll of the earliest primary states from February. “Opposition to gay marriage” could do be a [...]

  29. IA: Walker, Trump Vie for Lead... NH: Trump Leads GOP...Sanders Closes Gap against Clinton - Marist Poll on July 27th, 2015 11:35 am

    [...] Although Clinton is solidly ahead of Sanders, she previously had a 61 point lead over him in last February’s NBC News/Marist [...]

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