1/29: Romney with Wide Lead in Florida

In the race for the Republican nomination in Florida, Mitt Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters.

Romney’s lead has changed little after Thursday night’s debate.  Before the debate, Romney had a 14 percentage point advantage over Gingrich.  After the debate, he leads by 15 percentage points.  Santorum improved his standing from 13% to 18% following the debate.

Click Here for Complete January 29, 2012 Florida NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete January 29, 2012 Florida NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, early voters, and those who voted absentee in Florida:

Candidate	Total	Pre- debate	Post- debate
Mitt Romney	42%	43%	40%
Newt Gingrich	27%	29%	25%
Rick Santorum	16%	13%	18%
Ron Paul	11%	11%	11%
Other	<1%	<1%	1%
Undecided	4%	3%	5%

 

“Mitt Romney has shored up support among his key backers while cutting his loses among Tea Party voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The net effect is that he is in the driver’s seat as Tuesday’s primary approaches.”

Key points:

• With votes already in the bank, Romney — 49% — leads Gingrich — 27% — among early and absentee Republican primary voters in Florida.  Santorum receives 17% while Paul garners 6%.
• Romney’s best groups include likely Republican primary voters who are not Tea Party supporters — 52% — those who identify themselves as liberal or moderate – 49% — those who are just conservative – 47% — and likely Republican primary voters who earn $75,000 or more — 49%.  Romney also outpaces his competition among those who want a candidate who can defeat President Barack Obama in the general election — 45%.
• Romney holds his own among those who are Tea Party supporters.  Gingrich has 36% to 34% for Romney and 22% for Santorum.  Among Evangelical Christians, Romney has 34% to 28% for Gingrich and 25% for Santorum.
• Gingrich leads among likely Republican primary voters who are very conservative.  Here, he receives 36% to 29% for Santorum and 24% for Romney.

Table: 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary (FL Likely Voters with Leaners, Early Voters, and Absentees)

Increased Intensity of Support

How committed to their candidate are likely Republican primary voters in Florida?  67% strongly support their choice while 22% are somewhat behind their pick.  10%, though, might vote differently on Tuesday, and 1% is unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who strongly support their candidate.  In NBC News/Marist’s December survey, 47% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida were firmly in their candidate’s camp, 31% were somewhat committed to their choice, and 20% said they might cast their ballot differently.  Two percent, at that time, were unsure.

Key points:

• 71% of Romney’s backers, 68% of those who are behind Gingrich, and 64% of Santorum’s supporters are firmly committed to their candidate.  This compares with 47% of those behind Ron Paul.

Table: Intensity of Support (FL Likely Voters)

Romney Leads Gingrich Even Without Santorum in the Race

If Santorum were not in the competition, Romney would still be ahead of Gingrich, 49% to 33%.  Santorum’s supporters divide when asked who their second choice candidate is.  36% of Santorum’s backers choose Gingrich while 35% are for Romney.

Overall, 28% of likely Republican primary voters say Santorum is their fallback candidate while 27% select Romney.  Gingrich is the second choice of 25% while 9% report Paul is their reserve candidate.  11% are undecided.

When it comes to the candidate voters least like, 50% select Paul while 23% choose Gingrich.  Santorum is the least liked by 10% compared with 8% for Romney.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary without Santorum (FL Likely Voters with Leaners, Early Voters, and Absentees)

Table: Second Choice for the Republican Presidential Primary (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Least Liked Candidate for the Republican Presidential Primary (FL Likely Voters)

Electability Overshadows List of Other Candidate Qualities

What do voters look for when choosing a candidate?  41% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida believe it is most important for a candidate to be able to defeat President Barack Obama in the general election.  21% want someone who is closest to them on the issues while 20% think shared values is the key.  Only 14% say someone who has the experience to govern is their priority, and 3% are unsure.

In December, 28% put electability at the top of their list while 26% wanted a candidate who shared their values.  A candidate who was closest to them on the issues was most important to 23% while 20% thought a candidate with experience was the most important quality in a candidate.  Four percent, at that time, were unsure.

Key points:

• Romney — 45% — leads Gingrich — 32% — among likely Republican primary voters who think electability is the most important candidate quality.
• When it comes to those who want a candidate who has the same positions on the issues, Romney — 36% — is ahead of Gingrich — 24%.
• Among those who want a candidate who shares their values, Romney receives 37% to 29% for Santorum.  Gingrich garners 17%.
• Among likely Republican primary voters who value experience.  Romney — 46% — outpaces Gingrich — 33%.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (FL Likely Voters)

Perceptions of the Candidates

How is the likely Republican primary electorate in Florida sizing up the candidates?

• 38% think Rick Santorum is the true conservative in the race.  Romney and Gingrich each receive 18% followed by 16% for Paul.
• Santorum — 33% — is also the candidate perceived to best represent the middle class.  20% say the same about Romney compared with 18% for Gingrich and 17% for Paul.
• A majority — 52% — report Gingrich is the candidate who can best debate President Barack Obama.  Romney comes in a distant second with 31%.
• 37% believe Romney is the candidate who can change Washington for the better followed by Gingrich with 25%.
• When it comes to views on immigration, 30% report Romney best represents their views while 24% say Gingrich best shares their position.
• 29% see Romney as the candidate who best understands voters’ problems.  22% view Gingrich in this light followed by Santorum with 20%, and Paul with 16%.

Table: Candidate Considered True Conservative (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Represents the Middle Class (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Can Best Debate President Barack Obama (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Most Likely to Change Washington for the Better (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Considered to Best Reflect Views on Immigration (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Best Understands Voters’ Problems (FL Likely Voters)

Majority Views Romney and Santorum to be Acceptable Candidates

More than six in ten likely Republican primary voters in Florida — 62% — believe Romney is an acceptable choice for the Republican nomination.  26% agree but with reservations while only 11% think he is an unacceptable choice.  One percent is unsure.  In December, 58% perceived Romney to be an acceptable pick for the top of the GOP ticket.

A majority of likely Republican primary voters in Florida — 53% — consider Santorum to be an acceptable candidate as the GOP presidential nominee, and 25% say he is a good fit, but they have hesitations.  18%, however, say he is not an adequate pick, and 4% are unsure.

Looking at Gingrich’s acceptability, 48% say he is a good fit for the position while 26% think he is a suitable choice, but they have some concerns.  25%, however, don’t believe Gingrich is a good choice, and 1% is unsure.  Fewer voters deem Gingrich to be an acceptable candidate for the position than in December.  At that time, 65% of likely Republican primary voters thought Gingrich to be a good choice for the Republican nomination.

Paul is the least acceptable candidate.  Only 25% believe Paul is satisfactory, 27% agree but with reservations while a plurality — 45% — thinks he is an unacceptable selection.  Three percent are unsure.  In NBC News/Marist’s December survey, a similar proportion — 27% — thought Paul was an acceptable pick.

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Romney (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Santorum (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Gingrich (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Paul (FL Likely Voters)

Debates Impact Many Voters’ Electoral Decision

What about the debates?  To what extent have they shaped the Republican vote in Florida?  68% of likely GOP primary voters in the state say the debates have affected their vote to, at least, some extent while 32% say the debates have had little influence or no impact at all on their vote.

Table: To What Extent Have the Debates Helped in Deciding Your Vote? (FL Likely Voters)

Majority Wants Quick End to Nomination Process

Do likely Republican primary voters think a speedy resolution will result in a stronger candidate, or will a prolonged primary contest have that effect?  55% say a quick nomination process where the nominee can focus on running against President Barack Obama will create a stronger candidate while 37% think a long nomination process where the nominee campaigns in many primary and caucus states before running against Obama will produce such a candidate.  Eight percent are unsure.

While a majority of likely Republican primary voters in Florida — 54% — are satisfied with the current field of candidates, 43% would like to see someone else run, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Length of the Republican Nomination Process (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Satisfaction with Field of GOP Candidates (FL Likely Voters)

Six in Ten Believe Mormons are Christians

60% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida say a Mormon is a Christian while 40% report a Mormon is not a Christian, or they are unsure.  In December, similar proportions shared these views.  At that time, 57% thought a Mormon is a Christian while 43% said a Mormon is not a Christian or were unsure.

Key points:

• Romney — 50% — leads Gingrich — 26% — among likely Republican primary voters who report a Mormon is a Christian.  Among those who say a Mormon is not a Christian or are unsure, Romney — 30% — and Gingrich — 29% — vie for the lead.

Table: Are Mormons Christian? (FL Likely Voters)

President Obama Ahead of GOP Challengers…Romney Closest Competitor

Which candidate is the most formidable opponent against President Obama?

Among Florida’s registered voters:

• Nearly half — 49% — support the president while 41% are for Romney, and 10% are undecided.   This is little changed from December when 48% backed Obama, 41% were for Romney, and 11% were undecided.
• When matched against Paul, half of registered voters in Florida — 50% — support Obama compared with 36% for Paul.  14% are undecided.  Similar proportions shared these views in December when 49% favored the president, 36% rallied for Paul, and 14% were undecided.
• Against Santorum, Obama receives 50% to 35% for Santorum.  15% are undecided.
• President Obama has a 17 percentage point lead over Gingrich.  The president receives majority support — 52% — to 35% for Gingrich.  13% are undecided.  Last month, a majority — 51% — supported the president to 39% for Gingrich.  10%, at that time, were undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (FL Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Paul (FL Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Santorum (FL Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Gingrich (FL Registered Voters)

Obama’s Job Approval Rating at 46% in Florida

Looking at President Obama’s job approval rating, registered voters in Florida divide.  46% approve of the job the president is doing in office while 46% do not, and 8% are unsure.

Little has changed since NBC News/Marist’s previous poll.  In December, voters also divided.  46% praised the president’s performance while 45% thought it fell short.  Nine percent were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Florida (FL Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

1/27: A Look at Cuomo’s Current Success

As if his job performance numbers aren’t high enough, the latest Marist Poll shows that Governor Andrew Cuomo is in the process of reshaping how Empire State voters view the future of New York.  For the first time in nearly a decade, New York voters are telling us they think the state is headed in the right direction.

This is no small feat given the frustration voters have been feeling both about the process of government and the lingering sluggish economy.  What’s behind the redirection in public opinion?

More than three out of four voters think Cuomo is a good leader for the state, more than two-thirds think he is changing Albany for the better,  and a similar proportion believes he is keeping his campaign promises.  Perhaps, most significantly, when it comes to a reversal of fortune 65% approve of how Governor Cuomo is handling the state budget.

So far, Governor Cuomo has been able to navigate a difficult current.  He has been able to gain the cooperation of the legislature to accomplish much of his campaign ’10 agenda, while enhancing his support with voters.  It’s been a highly successful insider-outsider strategy.

Yet, much needs to be done to turn the state around.  Although improved, 72% still think New York is in an economic recession.  Eventually, Governor Cuomo will be judged on the state of the economy and whether he can continue to chip away at the number of New Yorkers who still believe financial matters need further improvement.  But, right now, New Yorkers think he’s on track.

1/27: An Optimistic Picture of the NYS Economy

One of the most interesting numbers from Marist’s poll of New York State deals with those who now believe the worst of the state’s financial failings are behind us.  As recently as this past November, only 42% thought that we had turned the economic corner.  Now, 52% see things in a more rosy picture.  Are we about to turn the page on public perceptions about the sluggish economy?

There’s evidence from other questions in this survey that this may, in fact, be the case.  26% currently think the state’s economy is on the upswing, double the proportion who shared this view in November.  30% think their family finances are improving while only 15% think their money matters are getting worse.

Many New Yorkers are still having difficulty making ends meet.  The unemployment numbers still point to talk of an economic recovery as being fragile, at best.   And, although improved, 72% continue to think we remain mired in an economic recession.

But, the numbers do represent a change.  And, that is a welcome sign for those who have long awaited an improvement on the economic front.

1/26: Brighter Financial Days Ahead, Says Majority in NY

New York State voters see a light at the end of the financial tunnel.  A majority of registered voters statewide — 52% — believe the worst of the state’s economic woes are behind them.  44% think the worst is yet to come, and 5% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete January 26^th, 2012 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

This is in stark contrast with voters’ views from November.  In that NY1/YNN-Marist Poll, a majority — 54% — thought there were more tumultuous economic times on the horizon while 42% said the worst was over.  Four percent, at the time, were unsure.

“More New York voters are beginning to see an improved economic picture,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “It’s not exactly rosy but the gloom is lifting.”

Key points:

• Perceptions of the economy’s future have improved among both Democrats and Republicans.  59% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans now report the worst is over.  This compares with 47% and 32%, respectively, in November.  46% of non-enrolled voters share this view compared with 42% in the previous poll.
• Regionally, the greatest change has occurred in New York City.  A majority of voters in this region — 55% — see a clearer economic picture ahead while only 39% held this view in November.  Upstate voters are also more positive.  Half — 50% — of voters, compared with 38% two months ago, think better days are ahead.  In the suburbs of New York City, 51% have this view, little changed from 52% in November.

Not only do voters think the worst of the state’s economic problems are over, they believe the state’s economy is on an upswing.  More than one in four voters — 26% — report New York’s economy is getting better; double the proportion — 13% — who shared this opinion in November.  One in four voters — 25% — still say the state’s economy is getting worse, but 36% felt this way in the last poll.  Almost half — 49% — report it is about the same, relatively unchanged from the 51% in NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey.

Key points:

• Looking at party, about one in three Democratic voters — 33% — say the economy is improving, a 17 percentage point increase from 16% in November.  Among non-enrolled voters, 21% see the economy as getting better compared with 11% previously.  19% of Republicans share this view while 10% did so in November.

While more than seven in ten voters in New York say the state is still in a recession, there has been a slight decrease in the proportion who thinks this to be so.  72% think New York is in a recession while 26% believe it is not, and 3% are unsure.  In November, 78% thought the statewide economy to be in this condition, 20% reported it was not, and 2% were unsure.

Table: NYS Economy — Will It Get Worse?

Table: NYS Economy — Will It Get Worse? (Over Time)

Table: New York State Economy

Table: New York State Economy Over Time

 

Table: NYS in a Recession?

Voters More Upbeat About Personal Finances

On the home front, there has been an increase in the proportion of voters who perceive their family finances to be improving.  Three in ten — 30% — have this impression while 15% think their money matters are getting worse.  A majority — 55% — see their finances as status quo.

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in November, 23% said their family finances were getting better, 22% thought they were getting worse, and 55% believed they were about the same.

Key points:

• While voters across the state are more positive about their financial picture, those in New York City are the most optimistic.  41% of these voters say their finances are improving compared with 28% in the city’s suburbs and 24% of upstate voters.  In November, those proportions stood at 28%, 23%, and 20%, respectively.

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year Over Time

Up the Minimum Wage?  Nearly Seven in Ten Adults Think So

69% of New York State adults believe raising the minimum wage is a good idea because it adds money to people’s income during difficult times.  27%, however, say it is a bad idea because small businesses will hire fewer people who need jobs when times are tough.  Four percent are unsure.

Key points:

• Across each region, more than six in ten adults support the idea of increasing the minimum wage in the state.  However, more residents in New York City — 75% — say the idea is a good one compared with 68% of those in the city’s suburbs and 64% of upstate residents.

Table: Is Raising the Minimum Wage a Good or Bad Idea?

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

1/25: New York Voters More Optimistic About Direction of State

For the first time in nearly a decade, a majority of the New York electorate believes the Empire State is heading in the right direction.  52% of voters share this view while 40% believe it is moving in the wrong direction.  Eight percent are unsure.  The last time a majority of the electorate reported the state was on track was in October 2002 when 51% shared that view.

Click Here for Complete January 25^th, 2012 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in November 2011, voters’ perceptions were quite different.  49% thought the state was travelling along the wrong path while 43% believed it was following the right one.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

“This represents a dramatic shift in public sentiment after a decade of frustration,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Positive reaction to Governor Cuomo is influencing how voters feel about the future of New York.”

Key points:

• A significant change has been in the proportion of Republican voters statewide who believe New York is moving in the right direction.  Nearly half — 48% — currently believe this to be the case compared with 28% who had this view in November, a 20 percentage point increase.  There has been little change among Democrats — 58% — and non-enrolled voters — 47%.  53% and 44%, respectively, shared these views in the last poll.
• Optimism has grown particularly in the suburbs and upstate.  A majority — 56% — of voters in the suburbs of New York City, 52% of those in New York City, and half — 50% — of voters upstate now think the state is on course.  This compares with 46%, 48%, and 39%, respectively, who had this opinion in November.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS (Over Time)

Nearly Six in Ten Approve of Cuomo’s Overall Job Performance

58% of registered voters in New York State approve of the job Governor Andrew Cuomo is doing in office.  This includes 12% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 46% who think he is doing a good one.  Almost three in ten — 29% — rate the governor’s performance as fair while 7% say he is missing the mark.  Seven percent are unsure.

Governor Cuomo continues to score high marks in the realm of public opinion.  In NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey, 55% thought Cuomo was doing an above average job while 32% believed he was doing an average one.  Seven percent thought his performance was poor, and 6%, at the time, were unsure.

New York State voters also have an overall favorable impression of Governor Cuomo.  76% have this view of him while 16% have an unfavorable impression of the governor.  Eight percent are unsure.

In November, 70% had a positive impression of Mr. Cuomo while 19% had a negative one.  11% were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

The Keys to Cuomo’s Current Success

What accounts for Cuomo’s solid job approval rating and favorable perception?  On the specifics of Cuomo’s image:

• Slightly more than three in four registered voters in New York — 76% — think Cuomo is a good leader for the state.  18% disagree, and 5% are unsure.  In November, 75% believed Cuomo was a good leader.
• 68% of voters say Cuomo is changing Albany for the better, 26% report he is not, and 7% are unsure.  There has been a slight increase in the proportion of voters who think Cuomo is positively impacting Albany.  63% thought this to be the case in November.
• Many voters also believe the governor is keeping his campaign promises.  65% have this view while 20% disagree, and 15% are unsure.  There has been no change on this question.  65% had this opinion in NY1/YNN-Marist’s November survey.
• When it comes to Cuomo’s ideology, nearly six in ten registered voters in New York — 57% — think Cuomo is a political moderate while 21% believe he is a liberal, and 14% report he is a conservative.  Nine percent are unsure.  In November, slightly more voters reported Cuomo to be liberal.  At that time, 53% reported he was a moderate, 27% thought he was a liberal, and 13% said he was a conservative.  Eight percent were, then, unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

About Two-Thirds Approve of Cuomo’s Handling of the State’s Budget

65% of registered voters in New York approve of how Governor Andrew Cuomo is handling the state’s budget while 29% disapprove, and 6% are unsure.

Key points:

• Majorities of voters upstate — 68% — in New York City — 65% — and in the suburbs of New York City — 59% — like how the governor is dealing with the state’s budget.

On the specifics of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s budget proposal:

• 71% of registered voters statewide favor linking tougher standards for evaluating teachers to aid for school districts.  24% oppose such an action, and 5% are unsure.
• Looking at the pensions of future public employees, 69% are for increasing the amount of money these workers personally contribute to their pension.  28% are against it, and 3% are unsure.
• Nearly seven in ten registered voters — 68% — favor giving future public employees the option of an individual 401K instead of a government pension.  28% oppose it, and 4% are unsure.
• Should the retirement age for public employees be raised from 62 years old to 65?  A majority of registered voters — 55% — think it should be while 43% don’t.  Only 1% is unsure.  There is an age difference.  62% of voters 45 years of age or older favor the increase while just 45% of those who are younger say the same.
• More than six in ten registered voters statewide — 62% — are for spending one billion dollars, including some state money, to try to revitalize business in the Buffalo area.  About one in three — 33% — opposes such an action, and 5% are unsure.  Regionally, upstate voters — 67% — are most likely to support this proposal, but even 60% of voters in New York City and 57% of those in the suburbs of New York City favor the idea as well.
• Voters divide about whether or not a new convention center near Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens should be built with $4 billion dollars of private funds.  47% oppose the action while 45% favor it.  Seven percent are unsure.  A majority of suburban voters — 56% — favor the new development while 54% of those upstate oppose it.  New York City voters divide.  47% favor the action while 45% are against it.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Handling of the New York State Budget

Table: Linking Tougher Standards for Evaluating Teachers to Aid for School Districts

Table: Increasing the Amount of Money Public Employees Personally Contribute to Their Pension

Table: Providing Future Public Employees an Option of a 401K Instead of a Government Pension

Table: Raising the Retirement Age from 62 to 65 Years Old for Public Employees

Table: Spending $1 Billion to Try to Bring Business to Buffalo

Table: Building a New Convention Center Near Aqueduct Racetrack

Dip in Support for Non-Indian Casinos in NYS

Half of New York State adults — 50% — support the allowance of commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State while 41% oppose such an action, and 9% are unsure.

There has been a decrease in support on this issue.  In NY1/YNN-Marist November survey, 60% backed the idea while 35% were against it, and 5% were unsure.

There has been a similar dip in support among registered voters statewide.  A slim majority — 51% — now backs the proposal while 44% oppose it, and 5% are unsure.  In November, 58% were for allowing commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State compared with 37% who opposed it and 5% who were unsure.

Key points:

• Among registered voters, the sharpest decline has been among Democrats.  49% of these voters support the plan while 59% did so in November.

When it comes to the impact on jobs and revenues, 52% of New York State adults believe allowing commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State is a good way to raise revenues and create jobs while 43% think it is a bad way to do so.  Five percent are unsure.

There has been a change on this question.  In NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey, 59% said such casinos would have a positive impact on state revenues and job creation.  37% reported it would have a negative impact, and 4% were unsure.

Among registered voters, 51% think these casinos would be advantageous to the state, 45% say they would be a detriment, and 4% are unsure.  Here, too, there has been a decline in support.  In November, 57% thought these casinos would be beneficial, 39% said they would be a bad way to raise state revenues and create jobs, and 4% were unsure.

Key points:

• Regionally, 56% of adults living in New York City, 52% residing upstate, and 44% of those in the suburbs of New York City believe commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State would be a good way to raise revenues and create jobs.  This compares with 63%, 56%, and 55%, respectively in November.
• Among registered voters, there has been a decline in the proportion of Democrats — 50% — who believe these casinos would have a positive impact.  63% shared this view two months ago.

Table: Support for non-Indian Casinos in New York State (Adults)

Table: Support for non-Indian Casinos in New York State (Registered Voters)

Table: Non-Indian Casinos are a Good or Bad Way to Raise NYS Revenues and Jobs (Adults)

Table: Non-Indian Casinos are a Good or Bad Way to Raise NYS Revenues and Jobs (Registered Voters)

Increase in NYS Senate and Assembly Approval Ratings

After more than two years scraping bottom, the approval ratings for both the New York State Senate and Assembly have inched up.

About one in four voters — 26% — now say that the legislative body is doing either an excellent or good job.  Included here are 2% who think it is doing an excellent job and 24% who report it is doing a good one.  44% rate it as fair while 26% say it is performing poorly.  Four percent are unsure.

There has been a 7 percentage point increase in the proportion of voters who rate the State Senate positively.  In November, only 19% gave it high marks, 45% thought its performance was average, and 33% said it fell short.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Although not as marked an improvement, the approval rating of the New York State Assembly has also edged up.  24% of registered voters in New York now think this legislative body is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 2% who believe the Assembly is doing an excellent job and 22% who report it is doing a good one.  42% give it fair marks while 29% say it is performing poorly.  Five percent are unsure.

In NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey, 20% thought the State Assembly was doing an above average job, 43% said it was doing fairly well, and 33% believed it fell short.  Four percent were unsure.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

1/24: Obama Leads Potential GOP Challengers by Wide Margins in NY

President Barack Obama will deliver his State of the Union address this evening.  And, the good news for the president is the state of his electoral chances in New York is strong.

Click Here for Complete January 24^th, 2012 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

The president leads his closest competitor, Mitt Romney, by 23 percentage points among registered voters statewide.  Nearly six in ten — 58% — are for Obama while 35% support Romney, and 7% are undecided.

“New York ranks with the bluest of the blue states,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “There’s nothing in the numbers to suggest it will be any different this election cycle.”

In a hypothetical contest between the president and Newt Gingrich, 63% favor Obama compared with 31% for Gingrich.  Six percent are undecided.

When pitted against Rick Santorum, 61% of registered voters support Obama while 33% are for Santorum, and 6% are undecided.  Against Ron Paul, the president has the support of 62% compared with 28% for Paul.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Gingrich

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Santorum

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Paul

Obama Approval Rating at 46% in NYS

How do voters in New York State think the president is doing in office?  46% believe President Obama is doing either an excellent or good job.  This includes 13% who say he is doing an excellent job and 33% who report he is doing a good one.  26% rate Obama’s performance as fair while 28% think he is doing poorly.  Less than one percent is unsure.

In November, 44% gave the president high marks, 27% gave him a fair rating, and 29% said the president was performing poorly.  Less than one percent, at the time, was unsure.

Table: Obama Approval Rating

Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

Concrete Approval Rating for Schumer

A majority of registered voters in New York — 56% — thinks Senator Chuck Schumer is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Included here are 18% who report Schumer is doing an excellent job and 38% who think he is doing a good one.  More than one in four — 27% — rate the senator’s performance as average while 12% think he is falling short.  Five percent are unsure.

Schumer’s approval rating is unchanged since NY1/YNN-Marist’s November survey.  At that time, 56% also gave Schumer a thumbs-up, 26% gave him fair grades, and 15% believed his performance was subpar.  Three percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

38% Definitely Plan to Vote for Gillibrand

When it comes to the re-election chances of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, fewer than four in ten registered voters in New York — 38% — say they definitely plan to cast their ballot for her.  Nearly one in five — 18% — report they plan to vote against her.  A notable 44% are unsure.

Similar proportions of voters had these views in November when 39% believed they would definitely support Gillibrand in her re-election bid, 22% said they would not, and 39% were unsure.

Gillibrand struggles to convince voters that she is doing well in office.  40% rate her performance as above average.  This includes 6% who say she is excelling in her post and 34% who believe she is doing a good job.  About three in ten — 29% — think Gillibrand’s job performance is fair while 12% say she is falling short, and 18% are unsure.

In November, 41% gave Gillibrand above average marks, 32% said she was doing a fair job while 11% reported she was doing poorly.  16%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in 2012

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

1/19: Romney Leads Gingrich by 10 Points in South Carolina; 5 Points Post-Debate

As the Republican presidential candidates crisscross the Palmetto State in the days leading up to Saturday’s South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 34% to 24%, among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate based on interviews conducted on Monday and Tuesday.

Debates matter.  Romney’s Monday lead of 15 percentage points over his closest competitor, Newt Gingrich, narrowed to 5 percentage points on Tuesday following Monday night’s debate.

Click Here for Complete January 19, 2012 South Carolina NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete January 19, 2012 South Carolina NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate in South Carolina:

Candidate	Total	Pre- debate	Post- debate
Mitt Romney	34%	37%	31%
Newt Gingrich	24%	22%	26%
Ron Paul	16%	15%	17%
Rick Santorum	14%	15%	13%
Rick Perry	4%	3%	5%
Other	1%	<1%	1%
Undecided	8%	8%	7%

 

“Romney has not closed the deal in South Carolina,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Monday night’s debate has changed the political landscape, and it’s now a much more competitive contest.”

Key points:

• Overall, Romney — 36% — leads Gingrich — 28% — among likely primary voters who are Republicans. Romney’s advantage over Gingrich of 13 percentage points, 39% to 26%, on Monday disappears on Tuesday when Romney has 31% to 30% for Gingrich among this group of voters.
• Among independents, Romney has 30% to 28% for Paul, and 17% for Gingrich.  On Monday, 31% of independents supported Romney followed by 24% for Paul and 14% for Gingrich.  On Tuesday, Paul received 31% to 29% for Romney and 20% for Gingrich.
• Looking at those who are very conservative, Gingrich is favored by 33% compared with 23% for Romney and 22% for Santorum.  On Monday alone, Gingrich received the support of 32% followed by 27% for Romney and 24% for Santorum.  On Tuesday, Gingrich is backed by 35% compared with Santorum at 20% and Romney at 19%.
• Both Romney and Gingrich receive 31% of Tea Party support over the two night survey.  But, on Monday, Romney garnered 35% to 27% for Gingrich.  On Tuesday, Gingrich is backed by 34% to 27% for Romney.
• Similarly, among likely Republican primary voters who are Evangelical Christians, when the two nights are combined Romney has the support of 29% to 25% for Gingrich, and 18% for Santorum.  On Monday, Romney led with 36% to 22% for Gingrich and 18% for Santorum.  On Tuesday, Gingrich receives 27% followed by 22% for Romney and 19% for Santorum.

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Overall (SC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentees)

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Pre-Debate on Monday, January 16th (SC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentees)

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Post-Debate on Tuesday, January 17th (SC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentees)

Bain Pain for Romney?

Romney has taken heat for his past involvement with the private equity and investment firm, Bain Capital, but 48% of likely Republican primary voters think the criticism is unfair including 70% of Romney’s supporters.  22%, however, believe it is fair while 20% have not heard anything about Romney’s role at Bain Capital.  11% are unsure.  There is little difference between Monday and Tuesday nights.

More than six in ten likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina — 61% — believe investment firms like Bain Capital help the U.S. economy through free market practices while 24% think these firms hurt the economy by profiting at the expense of jobs and workers’ wages.  15% are unsure.

31% of registered voters in South Carolina say the criticism of Romney’s experience with Bain Capital is unfair, 25% believe it is fair, and 34% have not heard anything about it.  11% are unsure.  Not surprisingly, almost three in ten Democrats — 29% — view the criticism as well-founded while a plurality of Republicans — 45% — call it unfair.  Among independent voters, 31% think the criticism is unfair while 26% say it is not.

When it comes to the impact on the economy, 42% of registered voters in the state believe these types of investment firms have a positive influence while 33% think they are harmful.  One in four — 25% — is unsure.

Table: Criticism of Mitt Romney’s Past Experience at Bain Capital (SC Likely Voters)

Table: The Impact of Investment Firms like Bain Capital on the U.S. Economy (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Criticism of Mitt Romney’s Past Experience at Bain Capital (SC Registered Voters)

Table: The Impact of Investment Firms like Bain Capital on the U.S. Economy (SC Registered Voters)

Electability Tops List of Key Candidate Qualities

Nearly four in ten likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina — 39% — prefer a candidate who can defeat President Barack Obama in the general election.  A candidate who is closest to them on the issues comes in a distant second with 21% followed closely by a preference for a candidate who shares their values with 20% and someone with the experience to govern with 18%.  Three percent are unsure.

There has been a shift on this question.  In NBC News/Marist’s December survey, 28% of likely Republican primary voters thought a candidate who shared their values was the most important quality for a candidate to possess.  26% wanted a candidate who had the same positions on the issues while 23% believed experience was key.  Only about one in five — 21% — reported their priority was a candidate who could defeat President Barack Obama in the general election, and 3%, at the time, were unsure.

Key points:

• Among those who favor electability, Romney leads.  He has 43% to 29% for Gingrich.  Gingrich has made inroads among likely Republican primary voters whose priority is electability.  On Monday alone, Romney — 46% — outpaced Gingrich with 25%.  On Tuesday, Romney received the support of 40% to 32% for Gingrich.
• Romney — 41% — also leads Gingrich — 26% — among those who want a candidate who has the experience to govern.
• Paul and Romney each receive 24% among likely Republican primary voters who want someone who shares their positions on the issues.  They are followed by Gingrich with 20% and Santorum with 17%.
• Santorum edges his competitors among voters who want someone who shares their values. He is backed by 25% compared with 20% each for Romney and Paul.  Gingrich receives 18%.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (SC Likely Voters)

Majority Strongly Supports Choice of Candidate in South Carolina

55% of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina say they are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.  29% somewhat support their pick while 15% might vote differently on Saturday.  One percent is unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of likely Republican primary voters who are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in December, 43% said they strongly supported their pick while 31% reported they were somewhat behind their candidate.  23%, at the time, thought they might change their minds, and 3% were unsure.

Key points:

• 61% of likely Republican primary voters who back Romney and 58% of those who are Gingrich supporters are firmly entrenched in their candidate’s camp.  This compares with 50% of likely Republican primary voters who support Paul and 44% of those who are for Santorum.

Table: Intensity of Support (SC Likely Voters)

Gingrich, Romney Top List as Second Choice…Paul Liked Least

Which candidate is voters’ second choice?  22% select Gingrich while a similar proportion — 21% — picks Romney.  Santorum is the second choice of 19% compared with 15% who say Perry is their fallback candidate.  Paul is the reserve candidate for 12%, and 11% are undecided.

Which candidate is the least liked?  36% mention Paul while 21% have a negative feeling toward Gingrich.  13% have a less than stellar impression of Romney while Perry and Santorum are least liked by 12% and 11%, respectively.  Seven percent are undecided.

Table: Second Choice for the Republican Presidential Primary (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Least Liked Candidate for the Republican Presidential Primary (SC Likely Voters)

Field of Republican Candidates On Par, Say 48% of Voters

Nearly half of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina — 48% — think this year’s field of candidates is average.  21% report it is above average, and 8% go a step farther and say it is one of the best groups of GOP candidates.  Only 13% believe the roster is below average, and 8% think it is one of the worst fields of candidates.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: Quality of the Field of Republican Candidates (SC Likely Voters)

Majority Views Romney as Acceptable Candidate…Gingrich Less Acceptable

A majority of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina — 56% — say Romney is an acceptable GOP nominee.  26% agree but have reservations, and 17% report he is an unacceptable choice.  Two percent are unsure.  In NBC News/Marist’s December survey of South Carolina, 53% thought Romney was a good fit for the nomination.

Likely Republican primary voters have a less favorable view of Gingrich.  Currently, 47% believe Gingrich is an acceptable choice to top the GOP ticket while 23% find him to be acceptable but with hesitation.  28% don’t think Gingrich is an acceptable choice for the nomination, and 2% are unsure.  In December, 63% thought Gingrich was a good fit for the GOP nomination.

When it comes to Santorum’s acceptability, a plurality of likely Republican primary voters – 44% — thinks Santorum fits the bill while 29% agree but with concerns.  23%, however, say Santorum is not a good fit for the nomination, and 4% are unsure.

37% believe Perry is a good pick for the nomination while 28% report he will do, but they have reservations.  31% think Perry is an unacceptable candidate, and 4% are unsure.  In December’s NBC News/Marist survey, 31% said Perry was a satisfactory choice for the nomination.

Paul is the least acceptable candidate.  Only 30% of likely Republican primary voters in the Palmetto State perceive Paul to be an acceptable candidate for the nomination.  26% say he is a good fit, but they have reservations while 42% believe he is an unacceptable pick.  Two percent  are unsure.  29% of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina believed Paul to be a good choice for the nomination in NBC News/Marist’s previous survey.

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Romney (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Gingrich (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Santorum (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Perry (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Paul (SC Likely Voters)

Perceptions of the Candidates and the Campaign

Which groups and interests do the candidates represent?  What is the overall tone of the campaign?  Likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina weigh in.

• Romney is perceived by 23% of likely Republican primary voters to be the candidate who best understands voters’ problems.  Gingrich follows closely behind with 22%.
• Three in ten likely Republican primary voters — 30% — think Romney is the candidate who is spending the most time talking about the issues.  Gingrich receives 21%.
• A plurality — 41% — thinks Gingrich is the candidate who is spending the most time attacking his opponents.  19% perceive Romney to be the candidate who is slinging the most mud.
• Overall, many likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina think the campaign has been negative.  64% believe the candidates are spending more time attacking each other while 26% say they are talking about the issues.
• Santorum — 22% — Gingrich — 21% — and Paul — 20% — vie for the title of true conservative.  Romney is thought to be the real conservative in the contest by 13% compared with Perry at 9%.
• A majority of likely Republican primary voters — 56% — say Romney is the candidate with the best chance of defeating President Barack Obama in the general election.
• 58% believe it is more important that the GOP nominee be able to beat Obama while 36% want a candidate who is a true conservative.

Table: Candidate Who Best Understands Voters’ Problems (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who is Spending the Most Time Talking About the Issues (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who is Spending the Most Time Attacking His Opponents (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Are Candidates Spending More Time Talking About Issues or Attacking Each Other? (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Considered True Conservative (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Can Beat President Barack Obama (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Which is More Important, a Candidate Who is a True Conservative or One Who Can Beat President Obama? (SC Likely Voters)

Debates Key in Shaping Vote…Ads, Not So Much

Seven in ten likely Republican primary voters — 70% — say the debates have at least somewhat helped them decide their vote.  However, only 28% consider campaign ads to have influenced their vote to at least some extent.

Table: To What Extent Have the Debates Helped in Deciding Your Vote? (SC Likely Voters)

Table: To What Extent Have the Campaign Ads Helped in Deciding Your Vote? (SC Likely Voters)

The Great Ecumenical Divide

A majority of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina — 53% — believe a Mormon is a Christian while 47% think a Mormon is not a Christian or are unsure.

In December, voters divided.  50% of likely Republican primary voters in the state believed a Mormon is a Christian while 50% thought a Mormon is not a Christian or were unsure.

Key points:

• Romney — 42% — leads with plurality support among those who believe a Mormon is a Christian.  However, Romney — 25% — and Gingrich — 25% — are neck and neck among those who say a Mormon is not a Christian or are unsure.  Santorum and Paul follow with 18% each.

Table: Are Mormons Christian? (SC Likely Voters)

49% Disapprove of Obama’s Job Performance

While 44% of registered voters in South Carolina approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office, nearly half — 49% — disapprove, and 7% are unsure.

This is little changed from when NBC News/Marist last reported this question in December.  At that time, nearly half of registered voters in South Carolina — 48% — disapproved of the job President Obama was doing in office.  44% gave the president good grades, and 8% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in South Carolina (SC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

1/19: Vote for Colbert? 18% in South Carolina Kinda Somewhat Likely

If Stephen Colbert were to run for president of the United States of South Carolina, almost one in five of South Carolina’s potential Republican primary electorate — 18% — say they are at least kinda somewhat likely to cast their ballot for Colbert.  This includes 4% who are very likely, 7% who are somewhat likely, and 7% who are kinda somewhat likely to support Colbert.  However, 13% report they are not too likely, and 56% say they are not likely at all to back Colbert.  Eight percent don’t know enough about him, and 4% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete January 19^th, 2012 South Carolina Marist Poll Release and Tables

However, support for Colbert grows among members of South Carolina’s potential Republican primary electorate who are aware of his possible run.  Among these voters, 22% say they are at least kinda somewhat likely to rally for Colbert.

“There’s no doubt Stephen Colbert’s potential run for the presidency of the United States of South Carolina is being noticed,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Not only do nearly one in five tell us they are kinda somewhat likely to support him, but he fares even better with those who are aware of his efforts.”

52% of the potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina are aware that Stephen Colbert is exploring a potential candidacy for president of the United States of South Carolina.  48% are unaware or are unsure.

South Carolina does not allow for write-in candidates on its ballot.  However, Colbert may still be able to judge his support.  21% of the potential Republican primary electorate in the Palmetto State report they would be more likely to vote for former candidate Herman Cain if that vote served as encouragement for Colbert.  62% would be less likely to cast their ballot for Cain, and 9% are unsure.

On the specifics of Herman Cain’s image:

• More than three in four members of the potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina — 76% — think Cain is hard working.  14% say he is not, and 11% are unsure.
• A majority — 58% — believes Cain embodies the American dream.  31% do not have this view, and 11% are unsure.
• The potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina divides about Herman Cain’s family values.  While 43% think Cain stands for family values, 44% disagree, and 14% are unsure.

Table: Likelihood of Support for Stephen Colbert’s Candidacy
Table: Likelihood of Support for Stephen Colbert’s Candidacy (Combined)
Table: Awareness of Stephen Colbert’s Potential Candidacy for the President
of the United States of South Carolina
Table: Influence on Vote for Herman Cain if Support Encourages Colbert
Table: Agree-Disagree: Herman Cain is Hard Working
Table: Agree-Disagree: Herman Cain Embodies the American Dream
Table: Agree-Disagree: Herman Cain Stands for Family Values

Majority Thinks Colbert Would Be No Better or Worse Than Any Other POTUS of SC

If Colbert were elected president of the United States of South Carolina, 55% of the potential primary electorate believe Colbert would be no better or worse than any of his predecessors.  Six percent report he would be one of the best, and 19% think he would be one of the worst.  One in five — 20% — is unsure.

While 53% of South Carolina’s potential Republican electorate are satisfied with the current candidates in the race, a notable 41% would like to see someone else enter the contest.  Six percent are undecided.

Table: Stephen Colbert’s Potential Legacy as President of the United States
of South Carolina
Table: Satisfaction with Candidates Running for President of United States

Colbert Support Influenced by Possibility of Real Change in Washington

Which factors would make members of the potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina more likely to vote for Colbert?  Bringing about real change in Washington is the key factor.  Colbert’s truthiness also ranks high with voters followed by his stands on the issues and his family values.

Voters least like the fact that Stephen Colbert once had a Super PAC or has the same initials as South Carolina.  Most are also not likely to vote for him if he were a she.

Key points among South Carolina’s potential Republican primary electorate:

• 49% of the potential Republican primary electorate would be more likely to support Colbert if he brings about real change in Washington while 37% would be less likely.
• When it comes to Colbert’s truthiness, four in ten — 40% — would be more likely to throw their support behind Colbert while 41% would be less likely to do so.
• Colbert’s stands on the issues would make 38% more likely to support him.  34% would be less likely to back him.
• Regarding his family values, 37% would be more likely to rally for him while 36% would be less likely to do so.
• Colbert is from South Carolina.  Does that positively impact the vote?  34% of South Carolina’s potential GOP electorate would be more likely to back him while 40% would be less likely to support Colbert.
• What about Colbert’s experience talking on television?  26% would be more likely to get behind Colbert while 53% would be less likely to back him.
• 18% would be more likely to support Colbert knowing that he is the most viable TV candidate.  62% are less likely.
• If Colbert were a woman named Stephanie Colbert, 14% would be more likely to rally for Colbert while 66% would be less likely to tout him.
• Having the same initials as South Carolina hurts Colbert’s level of support.  Only 13% would be more likely to back him while 70% would be less likely to throw their support toward Colbert.
• The fact that Colbert once had a Super PAC is least liked.  Here, 10% of the potential Republican primary electorate would be more likely to back Colbert while 63% would be less likely to do so.

Table: Influence on Vote: He Would Represent Real Change in Washington
Table: Influence on Vote: His Truthiness
Table: Influence on Vote: His Stands on the Issues
Table: Influence on Vote: His Family Values
Table: Influence on Vote: He’s From South Carolina
Table: Influence on Vote: His Experience Talking on Television
Table: Influence on Vote: He’s the Most Viable TV Candidate
Table: Influence on Vote: If Stephen Colbert Were Stephanie Colbert
Table: Influence on Vote: S.C.
Table: Influence on Vote: He Once Had a Super PAC

Defining People

Three in four members of the potential Republican primary electorate — 75% — think only people are people while 19% believe corporations are people.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: Definition of People

Getting Serious

More than four in ten members of South Carolina’s potential Republican electorate — 41% — report this is the most serious poll they have ever participated in.  58% say it is not, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Are You Serious?

This Marist Poll was sponsored by Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow.

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

1/13: On the Ground in New Hampshire

It’s a political junkie’s drug – New Hampshire in the days leading up to the primary.

2012 marked the Marist Poll’s seventh venture to the Granite State, but I was a newbie.

Here’s the back story.  Plain and simple, I love politics!  My passion for politics began fairly early in life, debating politics with family at the tender age of 12.  (With wisdom, I have learned to refrain from such discussions at family dinners.)

There are a couple of political endeavors to my credit.  Two valiant, yet failed, efforts – one in junior high and one in high school — for class president.  (Perhaps, a third attempt in college would have proved successful.  Even Nixon eventually gained the White House.)

Politics also played a role in fueling my future career in broadcast journalism.  However, when it came to major political events, I was often in-house taking in tape, editing pieces, creating graphics, and writing.  Certainly, I was never in the field in New Hampshire.  But, as a member of “Team Marist,” I was primed.

The excitement built within me as we traveled through New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and, finally, into New Hampshire.  As we made our way into the state, roads were dotted with signs expressing support for the candidates.  It was almost as though politics permeated the air, and it wasn’t long before I witnessed the reality of the stories I had heard.  You can’t walk down the block without bumping into a journalist or politician.  I was in my element.

While I could go on and on, I will spare you every last detail of the trip.  Here are a few of my personal highlights.

• The ABC News/Yahoo “Your Voice, Your Vote – Republican Presidential Debate in New Hampshire,” on Saturday, January 7^th: This was no ordinary experience.  Our team was credentialed to watch the debate in the press filing center followed by access into the spin room.  There, my journalistic juices were flowing.  As each candidate’s representative entered the gymnasium of Saint Anselm’s College in Manchester, I darted over to the pack of journalists with my compact camera in hand.  Upon realizing former Senator Rick Santorum’s arrival, I elbowed my way into the pack trying to get a good shot of the candidate, but I was behind the senator.   After a quick scan of my surroundings, I noticed the exit to the room was to my right.  The light bulb went off.  Santorum would have to turn in my direction to leave.  I dug in and stayed put.  Santorum thanked the pack, turned, and slowly made his way through the scrum of journalists (a special word of thanks to Nancy Miringoff who braced me as the pressure of the group became almost overwhelming).  Then, the senator stopped and answered a question right in front of me.  Score!  I got the money shot.
  
  




• The NBC News-Facebook Debate on Meet the Press on Sunday, January 8^th:  Still riding high from the experience the night before, our team made its way in the wee hours of the morning from our hotel in Nashua to Concord for the final debate before the Republican primary.  Hard to believe, but this experience outdid the night before.  Sitting inside the debate hall, I watched the candidates interact with their advisers, their families, and each other during the commercial breaks; a very unique perspective.  (Thanks to our GOP primary polling partners at NBC News for making such an experience possible.)
  
  




• Candidates’ Events on Monday, January 9^th:  A Santorum town hall meeting in the morning, a Gingrich event in the afternoon, and a failed attempt to attend a Romney rally early in the evening offered a small taste of the candidates’ grueling schedule.  More importantly, witnessing the crowd size and the audience’s reactions demonstrated their enthusiasm (or lack there of) for the candidates.  The choice of venue, style, and candidate spin when answering audience questions, not only demonstrated their campaign strategies, but their proficiency or inexperience on the stump.
  
  




• Polling Place Visit on primary day, Tuesday, January 10^th:  After hopping a barricade, I was, once again, caught up in a pack of reporters as former Governor Jon Huntsman approached a polling place in Manchester.  Handicapped by height and distance, I tried to figure out a way to get the video I wanted.  Then, I realized Huntsman’s car was to my right.  I made my way to the car, hoping to get a shot of his departure, and soon, I found myself pinned against the vehicle.  As my knee went in one direction and my leg in the other, I raised my tiny camera and pushed back against the throng of reporters who came toward me.  Battling for the best angle, I viewed Huntsman and his wife through my lens and captured the governor as he discussed his daughters’ impact on his campaign.
  
  




• A Who’s Who in the Radisson in Manchester on primary day added an exclamation point to my final hours in New Hampshire.  With the clock ticking down to the end of voting, Lee Miringoff, Barbara Carvalho, Nancy Miringoff, and I gathered at the hotel to conduct a few media interviews and to watch the results of the primary.  We stopped briefly to chat with an ABC reporter in the downstairs corridor of the hotel when I saw a group of cameras out of the corner of my eye.  A quick glance revealed Senator Santorum, his wife, and two of their children walking in our direction.  As they passed, the senator asked us how we were and continued on his way.  Up to the second floor we went for a radio interview.  After leaving radio row, we met up with Governor Huntsman on the staircase.  I took some video of Lee speaking with the candidate prior to my shaking hands with Huntsman.
  
  

And, so our whirlwind trip came to a close, but I would be remiss if I don’t mention two items which deserve honorable mention.

• Famished and slightly exhausted, half of the MIPO team (the non-football fans went shopping) took a breather at J.W. Hill’s Sports Bar and Grille in Manchester to watch the NY Giants defeat the Atlanta Falcons in the playoffs.  (A tip: if ever in the Manchester area, be sure to try the spinach and avocado dip at J.W. Hill’s.  The added tomato created a tantalizing culinary experience.)
• Who knew?  Visitors to the Merrimack area can visit the Anheuser-Busch Brewery for a tour and get up close and personal with the famed Budweiser Clydesdales!
  
  

That said.  The race moves on to South Carolina, but this time I will be watching from afar!

1/6: Romney Holds Wide Lead in New Hampshire

With all eyes on New Hampshire, Mitt Romney outpaces his closest competitor, Ron Paul, by 20 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Rick Santorum, whose support was in single digits in NBC News/Marist’s early December survey, is now in third place with 13%.  But, for Newt Gingrich, there’s bad news.  Gingrich, who was in second place last month, now sees his support cut to 9%.

Click Here for Complete January 6, 2012 New Hampshire NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete January 6, 2012 New Hampshire NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate in New Hampshire:

• 42% for Mitt Romney (+3)
• 22% for Ron Paul (+6)
• 13% for Rick Santorum (+11)
• 9% for Newt Gingrich (-15)
• 9% for Jon Huntsman (no change)
• 1% for Rick Perry (-2)
• 5% are undecided (+1)

“Expectations are sky-high for a big Romney victory,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “These numbers are a table setter for this weekend’s debates, the last best chance for a major turnaround that would deprive Romney of a decisive win.”

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in early December, 39% of likely Republican primary voters including leaners backed Romney.  24% supported Gingrich while 16% were behind Paul.  Nine percent were for Huntsman while Michele Bachmann, who has since suspended her campaign, received 3%.  Three percent also favored Perry, and 2% were for Santorum.  Four percent, at that time, were undecided.

Among the potential Republican electorate in New Hampshire, that is, all Republicans and those independents who plan to vote in the primary, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Romney leads with 41%.  Paul is a distant second with 22% followed by Santorum with 13%.  Nine percent of these voters are behind Huntsman, and the same proportion — 9% — rallies for Gingrich.  Just one percent is for Perry, and 5% are undecided.

Key points:

• A notable proportion of likely primary voters in New Hampshire will be independents — 38%.  Likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire also include 40% who support the Tea Party, 22% who are Evangelical Christians, and 15% who identify themselves as very conservative.  This is in sharp contrast with the Iowa Republican caucus as detailed in the entrance poll of caucus attendees by Edison Research of Somerville, New Jersey.  23% of GOP caucus participants were independents, 64% were Tea Party supporters, 57% of caucus-goers were Evangelical Christians, and 47% said they were very conservative.
• When looking at just Republicans who are likely to vote in the GOP primary, Romney is ahead by 28 percentage points.  Romney has 46% followed by Paul with 18% and Santorum with 14%.  Romney’s lead, however, narrows among independents.  Here, 35% are for Romney while 28% support Paul.  Huntsman receives 13% of the independent vote while Santorum takes 12%.
• Among likely Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party, the race tightens.  35% back Romney compared with 25% for Paul.  20% of these voters rally for Santorum, and 12%  back Gingrich.  However, among those who strongly back the Tea Party, Romney falls to third place.  Santorum leads with 31% of this voting group.  Paul garners 26% while Romney has the backing of 22%.  The difference in New Hampshire is this group makes up only 12% of likely Republican primary voters compared with 34% of Iowa caucus-goers.
• Romney has plurality support among likely Republican primary voters who identify as liberal or moderate – 46% — and among those who describe themselves as conservative – 41%.  He is neck and neck with Santorum, 30% to 27%, among  those who say they are very conservative.  Paul receives 22% among these voters.
• Looking at age, Romney leads among those 30 and older.  43% of likely Republican primary voters 30 to 44 years of age, 40% of those 45 to 59 years old, and 44% of those 60 and older support Romney.  However, Paul has the edge among those younger than 30.  Here, 47% back Paul compared with 40% for Romney.
• 31% of Evangelical Christians are behind Romney while 30% are for Santorum.

Table: 2012 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary (NH Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentees)

Table: 2012 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary (NH Potential Republican Electorate Including Those who Are Undecided Yet Leaning Toward a Candidate and Absentees)

Six in Ten Strongly Support Choice of Candidate

60% of likely Republican primary voters say they strongly support their choice of candidate while 29% report they are somewhat committed to their pick.  11% think they might change their mind before Tuesday, and only 1% is unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  In NBC News/Marist’s early December survey, only about half of likely Republican primary voters — 49% — said they would not waver in their support.  31% reported they were somewhat behind their pick while 18% believed they might vote differently.  Only 2%, at that time, were unsure.

Key points:

• About two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters who back Paul – 67% — say they strongly support their candidate while 60% of Romney’s supporters are firmly committed to him.  This compares with nearly six in ten — 57% — of Gingrich’s backers.  The same proportion — 57% — of Huntsman’s backers and a majority of Santorum’s supporters — 52% — say the same.

Table: Intensity of Support (NH Likely Voters)

Little Consensus about Second Choice…Gingrich, Paul Least Liked

When it comes to their second choice, 19% of likely Republican primary voters select Romney, 18% choose Santorum followed by 16% for Gingrich.  Huntsman is the second pick of 13% compared with 11% for Paul.  Perry is the second best candidate for 6%, and 16% are undecided.

Which candidate is the least liked?  More than one in four likely Republican primary voters — 27% — say they like Gingrich least.  23% have a similar view of Paul, and 17% say the same about Perry.  13% of voters believe Romney is the least desirable candidate followed by 7% who have a similar opinion of Huntsman.  Six percent have this attitude toward Santorum, and 6% are undecided.

Table: Second Choice for the Republican Presidential Primary (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Least Liked Candidate for the Republican Presidential Primary (NH Likely Voters)

60% View Romney as Acceptable Candidate…Gingrich’s Acceptability Plummets

Six in ten likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire — 60% — think Romney is an acceptable candidate for the GOP nomination.  23% agree but have reservations while only 16% don’t think he is a good fit for the role.  Just 1% is unsure.  In NBC News/Marist’s previous survey, 63% said Romney was an acceptable choice as the Republican nominee.

Looking at Santorum, 42% say he is an acceptable choice for the top of the GOP ticket while 30% find him to be acceptable but have concerns.  However, one in four — 25% — thinks Santorum is an unacceptable pick, and 3% are unsure.

While 35% believe Paul is a good fit for the Republican nomination, and 21% think he fits the bill but with reservations, there has been an increase in the proportion of voters who believe Paul is an unacceptable candidate for the top of the ticket.  43% currently have this view, and 1% is unsure.  In early December, 38% said Paul was an acceptable choice for the GOP nomination while 31% reported he was an unacceptable selection.

31% think Huntsman is an acceptable choice for the Republican nomination.  30% agree but with reservations, and 33% report he is an unacceptable candidate.  Six percent are unsure.

Fewer likely Republican voters perceive Gingrich to be a proper fit for the top of the ticket.  Only 29% think he is an acceptable choice.  27% approve of him as the candidate but have concerns, and 44% think Gingrich is an unacceptable candidate for the role.  Less than one percent is unsure.  In December, a majority — 54% — reported Gingrich to be an acceptable candidate.  At that time, only 19% thought Gingrich was an unacceptable candidate for the nomination.

Looking at Perry’s acceptability, just 17% say he is an appropriate choice.  26% report he is acceptable but with reservations while a majority — 54% — believes he is not a good fit.  Three percent are unsure.  In NBC News/Marist’s previous survey, 24% thought Perry to be a good choice for the nomination.

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Romney (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Santorum (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Paul (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Huntsman (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Gingrich (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Perry (NH Likely Voters)

Issues, Electability Top List of Most Important Candidate Qualities

Three in ten likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire — 30% — are looking for a candidate who is closest to them on the issues while 29% want someone who can defeat President Barack Obama in the general election.  However, 19% think someone who has the experience to govern is the most important quality to consider when selecting a candidate.  The same proportion — 19% — wants a candidate who shares their values.  Two percent are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s early December survey, 30% wanted a candidate who was close to them on the issues while 23% preferred a candidate who shared their values.  The same proportion — 23% — thought a candidate who could defeat the president was the key while 22% said experience was the most important quality for a candidate to possess.  Two percent were unsure.

Key points:

• Among likely Republican primary voters who want a candidate who is closest to them on the issues, 36% are for Paul compared with 32% for Romney.
• Romney — 59% — does best among likely Republican primary voters who cite electability as the most important factor when choosing a candidate.  Santorum receives 13% of these voters to 12% for Gingrich.

• Romney — 46% — also has an advantage among those who want a candidate who has the experience to govern.  19% of these voters support Paul, 12% back Huntsman, and 11% are behind Gingrich.
• Among those who prefer a candidate who shares their values, 28% are for Romney while the same proportion — 28% — backs Santorum.  Paul follows closely behind with 25%.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (NH Likely Voters)

Paul, Santorum True Conservatives…Romney Best Match against Obama

Which is more important to likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire?  61% say their priority is a candidate who has the best chance to win the White House while 33% want a candidate who is a true conservative.  Only 6% are unsure.

Romney is the candidate who 65% of likely Republican primary voters think has the best chance to beat Obama come November.  With the exception of Paul who receives 10%, the rest of the GOP field is in single digits.

Nearly three in ten likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire — 28% — believe Paul is the true conservative in the race while 26% have this view of Santorum.  12% think Romney is the real conservative while the same proportion — 12% — has this opinion about Gingrich.  Only 5% describe Huntsman in this manner while the same proportion — 5% — believes Perry deserves this title.  Three percent say none of the candidates are true conservatives, and 7% are undecided.

Table: Which is More Important, a Candidate Who is a True Conservative or One Who Can Beat President Obama? (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Can Beat President Barack Obama (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Considered True Conservative (NH Likely Voters)

Romney Best Understands Voters’ Problems…Will Improve Washington for the Better

30% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire think Romney is the candidate who best understands the problems of people like themselves while 25% say Paul best identifies with voters’ concerns.  15% report Santorum has a grasp of these problems while 10% think Huntsman deserves this description.  Seven percent believe Gingrich best understands the concerns of voters while 1% has the same view of Perry.  Six percent think none of the candidates comprehend the problems people face, and 6% are undecided.

Romney is also perceived by 35% of likely Republican primary voters to be the candidate who will improve Washington for the better while 24% think Paul is the best candidate for this job.  12% believe Santorum will have a positive impact on Washington while 10% say the same about Gingrich.  Huntsman receives 8% to just 1% for Perry.  Five percent say none of the candidates will change Washington for the better, and 5% are undecided.

Table: Candidate Who Best Understands Voters’ Problems (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Change Washington for the Better (NH Likely Voters)

Influencing Factors: Debates Impact Voters’ Decisions

What additional factors matter to likely Republican primary voters in deciding their vote?

• 75% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say the debates at least somewhat helped them decide which candidate to support.
• More than one-third — 35% — think seeing the candidate in person helped them in making their decision.
• 30% of likely Republican primary voters report campaign ads have influenced their candidate selection.
• John McCain recently endorsed Mitt Romney, what impact did McCain’s endorsement have on voters?  28% report his endorsement, at least somewhat, informed their decision.
• 27% of likely Republican primary voters say the results of the Iowa caucus have helped decide their vote, including 51% of Santorum voters.
• Only 19% of voters say contact with a candidate’s campaign has helped them choose a candidate.
• When it comes to the Manchester Union Leader’s endorsement of Newt Gingrich, just 12% say such an act helped them, at least somewhat, decide their vote.

Table: To What Extent Have the Debates Helped in Deciding Your Vote? (NH Likely Voters)

Table: To What Extent Has Seeing the Candidate in Person Helped in Deciding Your Vote? (NH Likely Voters)

Table: To What Extent Have the Campaign Ads Helped in Deciding Your Vote? (NH Likely Voters)

Table: To What Extent Has John McCain’s Endorsement Had in Deciding Your Vote? (NH Likely Voters)

Table: To What Extent Have the Results of the Iowa Caucus Helped in Deciding Your Vote? (NH Likely Voters)

Table: To What Extent Has Contact from a Candidate’s Campaign Helped in Deciding Your Vote? (NH Likely Voters)

Table: To What Extent Has the Manchester Union Leader’s Endorsement of Newt Gingrich Helped in Deciding Your Vote? (NH Likely Voters)

More than Six in Ten Think Mormons are Christians

62% of likely Republican primary voters believe a Mormon is a Christian.  However, 38% think they are not or are unsure.

Key points:

• Nearly half of likely voters who believe a Mormon is a Christian — 48% — support Romney.  However, among those who think a Mormon is not a Christian or are unsure, he leads 32% to 26% for Paul.  Santorum has 17%.

Table: Are Mormons Christians? (NH Likely Voters)

49% Disapprove of President Obama’s Job Performance

40% of registered voters in New Hampshire approve of the job President Obama is doing in office while almost half — 49% — disapproves, and 10% are unsure.

Little has changed on this question since last month.  40%, at that time, approved of the president’s job performance while 52% disapproved.  Eight percent, then, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in New Hampshire (NH Registered Voters)

NBC News/Marist Poll Methodology

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