12/30: Romney, Paul Battle for Lead in Iowa…Santorum Surges, Perry in Mix, Gingrich Stumbles

With just days until the Iowa caucus, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are in a virtual dead heat.  Romney receives the support of 23% to Paul’s 21%, well within this NBC News/Marist Poll’s margin of error, among likely Republican caucus-goers including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Rick Santorum who was in single digits earlier this month has bounced into the pack along with Rick Perry.  Newt Gingrich, ahead in NBC News/Marist’s early December survey, has seen his support cut by just more than half.

Click Here for Complete December 30, 2011 Iowa NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete December 30, 2011 Iowa NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican caucus-goers including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and the difference from earlier this month:

• 23% for Mitt Romney (+4)
• 21% for Ron Paul (+2)
• 15% for Rick Santorum (+9)
• 14% for Rick Perry (+4)
• 13% for Newt Gingrich (-15)
• 6% for Michele Bachmann (-1)
• 2% for Jon Huntsman (No change)
• 7% are undecided (-2)

“There has been a lot of movement in the past month,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “This is a contest that is very unsettled.”

In NBC News/Marist’s survey in early December, 28% of likely Republican caucus-goers including leaners supported Gingrich followed by Paul and Romney who each received 19%.  Perry garnered 10% of participants’ support while 7% favored Bachmann.  Santorum received 6%, and 2% were for Huntsman.  Nine percent, at the time, were undecided.

Among the larger pool of potential Republican caucus-goers including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 23% back Romney compared with 20% for Paul.  Perry receives the support of 14% as does Gingrich.  12% are behind Santorum while 5% rally for Bachmann and 2% support Huntsman.  10% are undecided.

Key points:

• Among likely Republican caucus-goers who are conservative or very conservative including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 21% are for Romney  compared with 18% for Santorum and the same proportion — 18% — for Paul.
• Paul — 28% — and Romney — 27% — vie for the lead among those who are liberal or moderate.
• Looking at Tea Party supporters overall, Santorum receives 20% compared with 17% for Romney and the same proportion — 17% — for Paul.  Gingrich garners 16% of these participants.  However, among those who are strong supporters of the Tea Party, Gingrich and Santorum each receive 22%.
• Among likely Republican caucus-goers who do not support the Tea Party, Romney — 27% — edges Paul — 24%.
• Nearly one in four likely Republican caucus-goers who are Evangelical Christians – 24% – back Santorum.  This compares with 21% for Perry.
• Looking at age, 38% of likely Republican caucus-goers under 30 years old and 22% of those 30 to 44 years old back Paul.  Among those 45 to 59 years old, it’s Romney with 23% and Santorum and Paul who each receive 19%.  Romney — 29% — does the best among those who are 60 and older.

Table: 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (IA Likely Caucus-Goers Including Leaners)

Table: 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (IA Potential Republican Electorate Including Leaners)

Majority Firmly Committed to Candidate, but Many Remain Uncertain

With the clock ticking down to the caucus, only 53% of likely Republican caucus-goers report they strongly support their choice of candidate.  33% say they are somewhat committed to their pick, and 13% think they might vote differently on Tuesday.  Only 2% are unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who say they will not waver in their support.  When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in early December, 40% said they were firmly behind their choice.  The same proportion — 40% — was somewhat committed to their candidate while 19% said they could change their mind.  Only 1%, at that time, was unsure.

Key points:

• Nearly six in ten likely Republican caucus-goers who support Santorum – 59% — are firmly committed to him.  This compares with 54% of Paul’s backers, 52% of those who rally for Perry, and 51% of those who are behind Romney.  46% of Gingrich’s supporters express a similar level of support.

Table: Intensity of Support (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Romney, Perry Top List as Second Choice

When it comes to the second choice of likely Republican caucus-goers who have a candidate preference, 21% pick Romney while Perry is the second selection of 20%.  Santorum receives 15% followed by Gingrich with 13%.  Bachmann is next with 11% followed closely by Paul with 9%.  Huntsman is the second pick of 3%, and 8% are undecided.

Key points:

• Romney is the second choice of 38% of Gingrich’s backers, 34% of Paul’s supporters, and 25% of those behind Perry.
• Perry — 35% — is the second choice of those who support Santorum.
• Among those who back Romney, there is little consensus.  20% pick Gingrich as their second choice, 19% select Santorum, and 18% choose Perry.

Table: Second Choice for the Republican Presidential Caucus (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Santorum, Paul Considered to be True Conservatives, but Gingrich Perceived to Be Best Debate Match for Obama

When it comes to the candidate who is the true conservative in the race, 23% of likely Republican caucus-goers believe Santorum deserves that title followed closely by Paul with 21%.  16% say Bachmann is the true conservative while 11% have this view of Perry.  Seven percent believe Romney is the real conservative, and 6% say the same about Gingrich.  Only 2% categorize Huntsman in this way.  Four percent say none of the candidates deserve this title, and 9% are undecided.

However, when it comes to the best debater against President Barack Obama, 37% believe Gingrich is the best opponent.  Here, Romney follows with 26%.  13% think Paul can best debate the president compared with 7% for Perry.  Four percent think Bachmann is the best debate match against the president compared with 3% who have this view of Santorum.  Just 1% gives Huntsman top debate honors while 2% believe none of the candidates can adequately take on the president in a debate.  Seven percent are undecided.

Which is more important to likely Republican caucus-goers?  A majority — 54% — want a Republican nominee who is a true conservative while 39% prefer one who can best battle it out with Obama in the debates.  Seven percent are unsure.

Table: Candidate Considered True Conservative (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Candidate who Can Best Debate President Barack Obama (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Which is More Important, a Candidate who is a True Conservative or One Who Can Best Debate President Obama? (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Romney, Santorum Considered Acceptable Candidates…Loss of Confidence in Gingrich

Half of likely Republican caucus-goers — 50% — think Romney is an acceptable candidate for the GOP nomination.  27% share this view but have reservations while 21% say he is an unacceptable choice.  Three percent are unsure.  In NBC News/Marist’s previous survey in Iowa, fewer than half — 46% — thought Romney fit the bill.

When looking at Santorum’s acceptability, 49% believe he is a good fit for the role while 22% report he will do, but they have some concerns.  The same proportion — 22% — says Santorum is an unacceptable pick, and 7% are unsure.

When it comes to Perry, there has been a slight increase in the proportion of likely Republican caucus-goers who believe he is an acceptable choice for the nomination.  44% have this view while 29% say the same but with concerns.  24% think Perry is not a good match for the role, and 4% are unsure.  Perry was perceived to be an acceptable choice by 38% in NBC News/Marist’s previous survey in Iowa.

Likely Republican caucus-goers are more uncertain about Bachmann’s acceptability.  Here, 37% say Bachmann is a good fit for the nomination while 25% agree but have hesitations.  34%, however, think Bachmann is an unacceptable choice, and 3% are unsure.

Looking at Paul, 35% believe he is a good fit for the role while 21% agree but with reservations.  41% say he is an unacceptable pick, and 3% are unsure.  Earlier this month, 38% of likely Republican caucus-goers thought Paul was a good match for the GOP nomination.

Gingrich has slipped from grace in the eyes of likely Republican caucus-goers.  35% think Gingrich is a good fit for the nomination.  28% report he is acceptable for the role, but they have some reservations.  35%, however, say he is an unacceptable choice, and 3% are unsure.  Earlier this month, Gingrich was the only candidate in the GOP field perceived by a majority of likely Republican caucus-goers — 54% — to be a good fit for the nomination with only 16% describing him as not acceptable.

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Romney (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Santorum (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Perry (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Bachmann (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Paul (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Gingrich (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Shared Values Tops List of Participants’ Priorities

What matters most to likely Republican caucus-goers?  Three in ten — 30% — want a candidate who shares their values while 28% think electability is the most important factor.  23% prefer a candidate who is closest to them on the issues while 15% want someone with the experience to govern.  Four percent are unsure.

There has been a change on this question.  In NBC News/Marist’s early December survey, more than three in ten likely Republican caucus-goers — 31% — wanted a candidate who was closest to them on the issues while 29% desired someone who shared their values.  Electability was key for 21% of likely Republican caucus-goers, and 16% preferred a candidate with experience.  Two percent, at that time, were unsure.

Key points:

• Santorum — 25% — has surged among those who want a candidate who shares their values.  Paul receives 21% from this group of participants.
• Romney — 34% — has the advantage among those who value electability in a candidate.  Gingrich trails behind with 18% of these likely Republican caucus-goers followed by Perry with 16%.
• Romney also does well among those who want a candidate who has the experience to govern.  Here, 29% back Romney compared with 22% for Paul and 19% for Gingrich.
• Among those who prefer a candidate who is closest to them on the issues, Paul leads with 34% to 23% for Romney.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Getting to Know the Candidates

The candidates are making their final pitch to caucus-goers in Iowa.  In the last month, 86% of likely Republican caucus-goers report being contacted by at least one of the campaigns.

The proportions of likely Republican caucus-goers who have been contacted by each of the following:

• 72% Paul campaign
• 69% Perry campaign
• 68% Romney campaign
• 68% Gingrich campaign
• 62% Bachmann campaign
• 44% Santorum campaign

Table: Contacted by a Campaign during the Last Month (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Contacted by Paul Campaign during the Last Month (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Contacted by Perry Campaign during the Last Month (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Contacted by Romney Campaign during the Last Month (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Contacted by Gingrich Campaign during the Last Month (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Contacted by Bachmann Campaign during the Last Month (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Contacted by Santorum Campaign during the Last Month (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Most in Iowa Do Not Want Palin or Bush to Run

Sarah Palin recently said there is still time for a Republican candidate to enter the race for the GOP nomination.  Do likely Republican caucus-goers want Palin to jump in?  81% do not while 14% do.  Six percent are unsure.

A run by Jeb Bush is only slightly more acceptable.  70% do not want Bush to enter the contest while 17% do.  13% are unsure.

Table: Sarah Palin 2012 Presidential Run (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Table: Jeb Bush 2012 Presidential Run (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Majority Believes Mormons are Christians

55% of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa believe a Mormon is a Christian while 45% think a Mormon is not a Christian, or they are unsure.

Earlier this month, the same proportions shared these views.  A majority of likely Republican caucus-goers — 55% — reported a Mormon was a Christian while 45% thought the opposite or were unsure.

Key points:

• While Romney — 30% — is ahead among those who think a Mormon is a Christian, Paul — 20% — edges Santorum — 18% — and Perry — 16% — among those who believe a Mormon is not a Christian or are unsure.  Gingrich receives 14% of these participants compared with 13% for Romney.

Table: Are Mormons Christians? (IA Likely Caucus-Goers)

Obama’s Job Approval Rating at 45%

Voters divide about President Obama’s job approval rating.  45% of registered voters in Iowa approve of the job the president is doing in office while 43% disapprove, and 12% are unsure.

Views of the president’s performance in office have flipped.  In NBC News/Marist’s previous survey in Iowa, 43% approved while 46% disapproved.  12%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Iowa (IA Registered Voters)

NBC News/Marist Poll Methodology

12/29: Younger Americans Twice as Likely to Make New Year’s Resolution than Older Residents

Nearly six in ten Americans younger than 45 years old — 59% — think they are likely to make a New Year’s resolution for 2012.  This compares with just 28% of those 45 and older.

Click Here for Complete December 29, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

When further broken down by age, nearly two-thirds of Americans under 30 years old — 64% — believe they will make a New Year’s resolution.  A majority — 55% — of those between 30 and 44 say they will do the same.  37% of residents 45 to 59 years old and 23% of those 60 and older plan to alter an aspect of their life.

Is there a gender gap?  Similar proportions of women — 40% — and men — 36% — report they will make a New Year’s resolution going into 2012.

Looking at the population overall, 62% of adults nationally say they don’t plan to make a resolution going into the new year while 38% say they will make a New Year’s resolution.

This is the largest proportion of U.S. residents who say they are not going to make a resolution since 2004.  At that time, nearly two-thirds — 65% — reported they were not going to resolve to change.

Last year, a majority — 56% — did not plan to make a resolution while 44% did.

Table: Likelihood of Making Resolution

Table: Likelihood of Making Resolution (Over Time)

Combating the Battle of the Bulge Tops List of New Year’s Resolutions

Weight loss is the top New Year’s resolution this year.  Nearly one in five Americans who are likely to make a resolution — 18% — say they want to drop a few pounds.  Exercise — 11% — comes in next followed by spending less money and saving more — 9%.  The resolution to stop smoking, which was last year’s top resolution, also received 9% as did the overall goal of being a better person.  44% plan to make some other type of resolution.

Last year, quitting smoking — 17% — and weight loss — 16% — were the most cited resolutions followed by spending less and saving more with 13%, being a better person with 10%, and exercising more with 8%.  36%, at that time, offered a different resolution.

Women and men are on the same page.  18% of women and 17% of men are resolving to shed a few pounds.  However, older Americans — 23% of those 45 and older — are more likely than younger residents — 12% of those younger than 45 — to promise to lose weight.  In fact, among younger Americans who are likely to make a resolution, 13% want to save more and spend less.

Table: Top New Year’s Resolutions

Table: Complete List of New Year’s Resolutions

Two-Thirds Kept Resolution This Year

Among those who made a New Year’s resolution going into 2011, 67% report they kept their word for at least part of the year while 33% did not.

Table: Kept 2011 Resolution?

Table: Kept Resolution? (Over Time)

Increased Pessimism about the Future

While a majority of Americans say they are optimistic about the world in 2012, there is increased pessimism.  Currently, 54% are positive about the future while 43% are not, and 3% are unsure.  Last year, six in ten — 60% — had an optimistic outlook while 38% had a pessimistic one, and 2% were unsure.

There is a growing pessimism among men.  48% have an upbeat view about the future while 49% do not.  In 2010, nearly six in ten men — 58% — reported an optimistic attitude compared with 39% who were more pessimistic.

Those under 45 years old — 67% — are more optimistic compared with their older counterparts — 48%.

Table: Optimism for the Future

Marist Poll Methodology

12/28: How Old is Old?

At what age is someone considered old?  The short answer is, “It depends.”  According to this study by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion conducted for Home Instead Senior Care, the answer is based on age.

The age at which someone is considered old increases slightly for each generation.  Among Baby Boomers, old age doesn’t start until 77.  But, to what age do all of the generations want and think they will live?  What role does gender play?

For more information about Home Instead Senior Care, go to http://www.homeinstead.com.

Survey Findings for “How Old is Old?”

 

12/20: Battle of the Season’s Greetings: Merry Christmas vs. Happy Holidays

Nearly two-thirds of adults nationally — 64% — think people should say, “Merry Christmas” during the holiday season while more than three in ten — 31% — believe the appropriate greeting is “Happy Holidays.”  Four percent are unsure.

When Marist last reported it in 2010, 61% thought “Merry Christmas” should convey the greetings of the season while 35% believed “Happy Holidays” did the trick.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: “Merry Christmas” vs. “Happy Holidays”

Marist Poll Methodology

This poll was released in conjunction with the Knights of Columbus.  To learn more, click here.

12/16: Whatever, Still Most Annoying Word, You Know. Like, Seriously? Just Sayin’

It’s that time of the year, again!  It’s time for The Marist Poll to reveal the word or phrase considered to be the most annoying in casual conversation.  And, for the third consecutive year, “whatever” receives the dubious honor.  Nearly four in ten adults nationally — 38% — say “whatever” grates on their nerves the most.  “Like” one in five — 20% — say that verbal filler is the most irritating while 19% despise “you know.”  “Just sayin’” gets on the nerves of 11% of the population compared with 7% who report “seriously” should be banned from casual conversation.  Five percent are unsure.

Click Here for Complete December 16, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

Last year, 39% told the Marist Poll “whatever” is the most bothersome word in casual conversation while 28% thought “like” was the epitome of irritating.  At that time, the list also included “you know what I mean” — 15% — “to tell you the truth” — 10% — and “actually” — 5%.  Three percent were unsure.

Table: Most Annoying Conversational Word or Phrase

Marist Poll Methodology

12/15: Goal! USA Women’s Soccer Victory Best Sports Accomplishment of 2011

2011 has been a big year for sports!  And, of all the great moments, the win by USA women’s soccer over Brazil in the World Cup takes the top spot as the best single sports accomplishment of the year.  Nearly one-third of sports fans nationally — 32% — have this view.  The sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers by the Dallas Mavericks comes in a distant second with 18% while Derek Jeter getting his 3,000th hit is perceived to be the most significant sports accomplishment of 2011 by 15%.  13% believe Butler’s second trip to the NCAA Championship rates most significant while 11% say the Rose Bowl win by Texas Christian University deserves that description.  Five percent think another sports moment is the best, and 6% are unsure.

This Marist Poll has been done in conjunction with The Marist College Center for Sports Communication.

Click Here for Complete December 15, 2011 Poll Release and Tables

“These results speak to the public’s greater respect for women’s sports as well as our clear thirst for nationalism through sport,” says Dr. Keith Strudler, Director of The Marist College Center for Sports Communication. “We should always consider that while we live in an increasingly global society, sport remains one of the few places to reclaim national identity and superiority.  That may be particularly true as the United States faces economic uncertainty amidst the rise of new emerging superpowers.”

While those 30 years of age and older — 31% of those 30 to 44, 39% of those 45 to 59, and 32% of those 60 and older — rank the World Cup win as the best single sports accomplishment of the year, 30% of those under 30 say the Mavericks’ victory deserves the title.

More women — 37% — than men — 29% — report USA besting Brazil in the World Cup takes the number one slot.

Table: Single Best Sports Accomplishment of 2011

Packers Split the Uprights … Super Bowl Win Called Best Sports Championship of 2011

The Lombardi Trophy isn’t the only award the Green Bay Packers have received in 2011.  The team’s Super Bowl victory is considered to be the best sports championship of the year by 36% of sports fans.  Three in ten — 30% — say the St. Louis Cardinals winning the World Series was the home run of sports this year while 15% think the Dallas Mavericks’ NBA Championship win was a slam dunk.  The Boston Bruins’ Stanley Cup win and Rory McIlroy’s US Open victory are perceived by 8% and 5%, respectively, as the best sports championship of 2011.  Three percent select another championship, and 3% are unsure.

There are age and gender differences on this question.  While more than four in ten sports fans under 30 — 41% — and 38% of those 60 and older rate the Packers’ Super Bowl victory as the greatest championship of the year, there is less of a consensus among fans in other age groups.  33% of those 30 to 44 choose the Super Bowl win while 29% select the Cardinals’ World Series victory.  Among fans 45 to 59, 32% select the Packers’ victory while the same proportion — 32% — rate the Cardinals’ World Series victory as the top championship of 2011.

Table: Best Sports Championship of 2011

Lockouts Have Biggest Impact on Sports in 2011 … Aaron Rodgers Most Influential Player

A plurality of sports fans — 41% — say, when it comes to the biggest impact on sports this year, the NBA and NFL lockouts and labor disputes have left the largest mark.  Nearly three in ten — 28% — think the scandals in college athletics have had the greatest impact while 15% report investigations and trials for performance enhancing drugs have topped the list.  12% believe college conference realignment has had the most impact, and 4% are unsure.

While 43% of fans in the West, 42% of those in the Midwest, and 42% of fans in the South believe the lockouts had the biggest impact, 41% of Northeast fans say the same about the scandals in college athletics.

Which player has had the biggest mark on his sport in 2011?  32% of fans say NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been the most influential.  Nearly one in five — 19% — report NBA player LeBron James had the biggest impact on basketball while 15% say NFL quarterback Tim Tebow had the biggest effect on football.  Golfer Rory McIlroy is deemed by 13% to be the player with the largest impact on his sport while 12% report NBA player Dirk Nowitski greatly impacted basketball.  Nine percent are unsure.

While older sports fans — 42% of those between 30 and 44 years of age, 31% of those 45 to 59, and 31% of those 60 and older — say Rodgers had the biggest impact in 2011, younger fans — 34% of those under the age of 30 — think LeBron James has.

There is a gender difference.  39% of men say Aaron Rodgers deserves the title of most influential sports player.  However, there is less of a consensus among women.  Here, 23% select Rodgers while 22% choose LeBron James.

Just how many adults nationally are sports fans?  More than six in ten — 61% — say they are while 39% report they are not.

Table: Story with the Biggest Impact on Sports in 2011

Table: Player with the Biggest Impact on Their Sport in 2011

Table: Sports Fans Nationally

Marist Poll Methodology

About Keith Strudler, Ph.D.

Keith Strudler, Ph.D., is the director for the Marist College Center for Sports Communication.  Dr. Strudler founded Marist’s popular concentration in sports communication in 2002, now one of the nation’s largest in the discipline.  He studies and teaches in the areas of sports media, sport and society, and sports reporting and information.  Dr. Strudler also writes weekly sports commentary for WAMC, an NPR radio station in Albany, NY.

12/11: Gingrich Outpaces Romney by 19 Percentage Points in South Carolina

Newt Gingrich has skyrocketed to the top of the Republican field among likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina.  He currently leads his closest competitor, Mitt Romney, by 19 percentage points.  Romney, who vied for the lead with, then candidate, Herman Cain in October, has lost support.

Click Here for Complete December 11, 2011 South Carolina NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete December 11, 2011 South Carolina NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate in South Carolina:

• 42% for Newt Gingrich
• 23% for Mitt Romney
• 9% for Ron Paul
• 7% for Michele Bachmann
• 7% for Rick Perry
• 3% for Jon Huntsman
• 2% for Rick Santorum
• 8% are undecided

“The road to Florida goes through South Carolina,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “On the heels of Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina will likely again be critical for the next GOP nominee.”

What a difference two months make!  In NBC News/Marist’s October survey in South Carolina, Herman Cain, who has since suspended his campaign, was neck and neck with Mitt Romney.  At that time, 31% of likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate in South Carolina backed Cain while 28% were for Romney.  One in ten — 10% — supported Perry, 7% rallied for Gingrich, and Paul and Bachmann each received 5%.  Two percent favored Santorum while only 1% backed Huntsman.  10%, in October, were undecided.

Among the current potential Republican electorate including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, four in ten — 40% — now support Gingrich while 23% back Romney.  Paul garners 9% compared with 7% for Bachmann and the same proportion — 7% — for Perry.  Huntsman has the support of 3% while 2% favor Santorum.  Nine percent are undecided.

Key points:

• When looking at likely primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Gingrich leads Romney by 22 percentage points among Republicans and by 14 percentage points among independents.  Paul receives 6% among Republicans but 15% among independents.
• Gingrich has majority support — 54% — and leads Romney — 15% — among likely Republican primary voters who are very conservative. Gingrich also has the backing of a majority — 51% — of those who support the Tea Party.  Among this group, Romney receives 20%.
• Among those who are Evangelical Christians, 46% are for Gingrich while one in five — 20% — favors Romney.
• There are gender and age differences.  Although Gingrich has the lead among both men and women, nearly half of likely Republican primary voters who are men — 46% — support Gingrich compared with 38% of women.  Gingrich does better among those who are older.  Nearly half of likely Republican primary voters who are at least 45 years old — 49% — favor Gingrich while Romney receives the support of 23% of this group.  Among those who are younger, the contest tightens.  28% support Gingrich, 22% are behind Romney, and 16% back Paul.

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary (SC Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary (SC Potential Republican Electorate Including Leaners)

Plurality Strongly Supports Choice of Candidate

43% of likely Republican primary voters say they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate while 31% report they somewhat support their pick.  23% think they might vote differently.  Only 3% are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in October, 39% of likely Republican primary voters were firmly behind their candidate.  34% were somewhat committed to their choice, and 25% said they might cast their ballot differently.  Two percent, at that time, were unsure.

Key points:

• Gingrich supporters are more firmly committed to their candidate than are Romney’s backers.  Half of likely Republican primary voters who are behind Gingrich — 50% — report they are unwavering in their support while 34% who back Romney say the same.

Table: Intensity of Support (SC Likely Voters)

Romney Viewed as Second Choice by More than Three in Ten

Likely Republican primary voters who have a candidate preference also shared their second choice.  32% pick Romney while 21% select Gingrich.  Perry is the second choice of 12% while 10% choose Bachmann.  Paul garners 8% compared with 6% for Santorum.  Huntsman is the second pick of 2%, and 9% are undecided.

Key points:

• A majority of Romney’s supporters — 51% — pick Gingrich as their second choice while the same proportion of Gingrich’s backers – 51% — select Romney.

Table: Second Choice for the Republican Presidential Primary (SC Likely Voters)

Gingrich Leads Romney, Paul in Three-Way Contest…Bests Romney Head-to-Head

What if the contest for the Republican nomination comes down to Gingrich, Romney, and Paul?  In that hypothetical scenario, nearly half of likely Republican primary voters — 48% — are for Gingrich compared with 30% for Romney and 12% for Paul.  Nine percent are undecided.

However, if you take Paul out of the mix, nearly six in ten likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina — 57% — report they support Gingrich compared with 33% for Romney.  10% are undecided.

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Three-Way (SC Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Two-Way (SC Likely Voters)

Cain Matters in Carolina?

Now that Herman Cain is out of the Republican contest, would his endorsement make a difference?  35% of likely Republican primary voters report they are more likely to vote for a candidate who has Cain’s endorsement while 29% say they are less likely to cast their ballot for such a candidate.  Three in ten — 30% — think it makes no difference to their vote, and 6% are unsure.

Table: Impact of Cain Endorsement (SC Likely Voters)

63% View Gingrich as Acceptable GOP Nominee…Majority Says Same about Romney

More than six in ten likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina — 63% — think Gingrich is a good fit for the GOP nomination.  23% agree but with reservations, and 11% believe he is unacceptable as the top of the ticket.  Three percent are unsure.

Despite Romney’s challenges with the likely Republican primary electorate, a majority of these voters — 53% — say Romney is an acceptable candidate for the nomination.  31% agree but have some concerns, 14% report he is not a good fit, and 2% are unsure.

It is a different story when it comes to Paul, 34% of likely Republican primary voters say he is an unacceptable candidate for the nomination.  Almost three in ten — 29% — believe he is satisfactory, and 32% find him to be acceptable but with hesitation.  Five percent are unsure.

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Gingrich (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Romney (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Paul (SC Likely Voters)

Voters Weigh In on Controversial Campaign Issues

91% of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina think it is unacceptable for a candidate to tolerate Iran building a nuclear weapon.  Six percent say it is acceptable, and 3% are unsure.

When it comes to allowing illegal immigrants to obtain in-state tuition, more than eight in ten — 84% — believe it is not acceptable for a candidate to support such a position, 12% think it is acceptable, and 4% are unsure.

Many likely Republican primary voters — 62% — say it is unacceptable for a candidate to support an individual mandate for health care insurance while 29% don’t find this to be problematic.  Nine percent are unsure.

Likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina divide about the acceptability of a candidate who supports amnesty for some illegal immigrants.  Here, 48% find it unacceptable while 46% believe it is acceptable.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: Acceptability of a Republican Candidate who Tolerates Nuclear Proliferation by Iran (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability of a Republican Candidate who Allows Illegal Immigrants to Receive In-State Tuition (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability of a Republican Candidate who Supports an Individual Mandate for Health Care Insurance (SC Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability of a Republican Candidate who Supports Limited Amnesty for Some Illegal Immigrants (SC Likely Voters)

Shared Values and Issues Key Candidate Qualities

Nearly three in ten likely Republican primary voters — 28% — say a candidate who shares their values is the most important quality for a candidate to possess.  26% want a candidate who has the same positions on the issues while 23% believe experience in a candidate is the key.  21% think it’s most important for a candidate to have the ability to defeat President Barack Obama in the general election, and 3% are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s October survey, values topped the list of priorities with 31%.  27% of likely Republican primary voters wanted a candidate who was closest to them on the issues while 20% said experience was the most important quality in a candidate.  A similar proportion — 19% — said electability was their top priority, and 3%, at the time, were unsure.

Key points:

• Gingrich does best among likely Republican primary voters who think electability is the key.  A majority — 56% — backs Gingrich compared with 25% for Romney.
• Among those who favor a candidate with experience, 43% support Gingrich while Romney receives 26%.  In October, Romney was ahead among these voters.  35%, at that time, supported Romney followed by Cain with 22%.  Gingrich only garnered 7% among these likely Republican primary voters.
• Gingrich leads Romney by two-to-one among issues voters.  41% throw their support behind Gingrich compared with 20% for Romney
• Among those who want a candidate who shares their values, Gingrich receives the support of 34% to 22% for Romney.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (SC Likely Voters)

Romney Faces Ideological Clash

Many likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina describe Romney as either a liberal — 11% — or a political moderate — 51%.  Only about one in four — 26% — think he is a conservative.  12% are unsure.

The problem for Romney is only 30% of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina describe themselves as liberal or moderate, and 70% identify as conservative.

Table: Mitt Romney Ideology (SC Likely Voters)

Voters Divide about the Mormon Faith

Half — 50% — of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina think a Mormon is a Christian while 50% say a Mormon is not a Christian or are unsure.

Little has changed on this question since October.  At that time, 47% reported a Mormon is a Christian while 53% disagreed or were unsure.

Key points:

• While Gingrich leads Romney, 39% to 30%, among likely Republican voters who believe a Mormon is a Christian, Gingrich has a much wider lead among those who say Mormons are not Christians or are unsure.  Here, 46% support Gingrich while 16% back Romney.

Table: Are Mormons Christian? (SC Likely Voters)

Obama Gains Edge over Romney, Close Contest with Gingrich

In a hypothetical general election contest between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, 45% of registered voters in South Carolina support the president while 42% back Romney, and 13% are undecided.

In NBC News/Marist’s October survey, Romney had an advantage against the president.  At that time, 46% of registered voters in South Carolina supported Romney compared with 40% for Obama.  14%, at that time, were undecided.

Gingrich runs competitively against the president.  Here, Obama receives 46% of the South Carolina electorate while Gingrich garners 42%.  12% of voters are undecided.

When matched against Paul, the president has a 10 percentage point lead.  47% of registered voters in South Carolina are for President Obama while 37% are for Paul.  15% are undecided.

In 2008, President Obama lost South Carolina to John McCain by nine percentage points, 45% for Obama and 54% for McCain.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (SC Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Gingrich (SC Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Paul (SC Registered Voters)

48% Disapprove of Obama’s Job Performance

Nearly half of registered voters in South Carolina — 48% — disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in office.  44% approve, and 8% are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in October, a majority — 51% — gave the president low marks while four in ten — 40% — approved, and 9% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in South Carolina (SC Registered Voters)

NBC News/Marist Poll Methodology

 

12/11: Gingrich Soars in Florida

Newt Gingrich, who once received single-digit support in Florida, has climbed to the top of the Republican field.  Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by 15 percentage points statewide.  Romney, who was in a tight battle with former candidate Herman Cain for the number one position in October, has been dramatically outpaced.

Click Here for Complete December 11, 2011 Florida NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete December 11, 2011 Florida NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate in Florida:

• 44% for Newt Gingrich
• 29% for Mitt Romney
• 8% for Ron Paul
• 4% for Rick Perry
• 3% for Michele Bachmann
• 3% for Jon Huntsman
• 2% for Rick Santorum
• 8% are undecided

“Not only does Gingrich have a double-digit lead, but no one else other than Romney has more than single digits,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The important question is who will still be an active candidate by the Florida primary at the end of January.”

The Republican contest looked much different in October.  In that NBC News/Marist Poll, 33% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate backed Romney.  A similar proportion — 32% — rallied for Herman Cain who has since suspended his campaign.  Nine percent supported Perry.  Paul and Gingrich each received 6%.  Two percent, at that time, threw their support behind Bachmann while the same proportion — 2% — favored Huntsman.  One percent backed Santorum, and 8%, in October, were undecided.

When looking at the current Florida potential Republican electorate including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 41% of these voters back Gingrich while 28% support Romney.  Paul receives the support of 9% while 4% are for Perry, and 4% are for Bachmann.  Huntsman garners 3%, and Santorum is preferred by 1%.  10% are undecided.

Key points:

• Gingrich receives the backing of 57% of likely Republican primary voters who are Tea Party supporters compared with 22% for Romney.
• Among those who are very conservative, Gingrich leads Romney, 64% to 17%.
• Gingrich also outpaces Romney among likely Republican primary voters who are Evangelical Christians.  Here, Gingrich receives the support of nearly half — 49% — compared with 26% for Romney.
• There are also gender and age differences.  Among men, Gingrich — 48% — leads Romney — 23% — by 25 percentage points.  Paul receives 12%.  Women divide.  38% of women are for Gingrich compared with 35% for Romney.  Gingrich does better among likely Republican primary voters who are older.  Nearly half of those 45 or older — 47% — favor Gingrich while 29% are behind Romney.  Among those who are younger than 45, 34% support Gingrich while 26% rally for Romney.  Paul receives 19% of this age group.

Table: 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary (FL Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary (FL Potential Republican Electorate Including Leaners)

Plurality Strongly Supports Choice of Candidate

47% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.  31% somewhat support their pick, and 20% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

Little has changed on this question since NBC News/Marist’s October survey.  At that time, 44% were firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  More than one in four — 27% — were somewhat committed to their pick while the same proportion — 27% — thought they might vote differently come primary day.  Only 2%, then, were unsure.

Key points:

• Gingrich’s backers — 60% — are more firmly behind their candidate compared with Romney’s supporters — 38%.
• A majority — 55% — of likely Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.

Table: Intensity of Support (FL Likely Voters)

Second Best: More than Three in Ten Choose Romney

31% of likely Republican primary voters who have a candidate preference say Romney is their second choice.  Nearly one in four — 24% — pick Gingrich while 10% select Bachmann.  Perry is the second choice of 9% while 7% believe Paul is the next best choice.  Santorum receives 6% while 4% think Huntsman is the second best option.  Nine percent are undecided.

Key points:

• 55% of Romney’s backers select Gingrich as their second choice while 51% of Gingrich’s backers pick Romney.

Table: Second Choice for the Republican Presidential Primary (FL Likely Voters)

Gingrich Bests Romney and Paul in Three-Way Matchup, Leads Romney Head-to-Head

If the Republican contest comes down to Gingrich, Romney, and Paul, 51% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida rally for Gingrich, 31% are behind Romney, and 10% support Paul.  Nine percent are undecided.

If Paul is not in the final field, 54% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida back Gingrich while 36% are for Romney, and 10% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary Three-Way (FL Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary Two-Way (FL Likely Voters)

Could Cain Endorsement Have Impact in Florida?

Since Herman Cain dropped out of the Republican contest, talk has turned toward which candidate, if any, he will endorse.  But, will his endorsement matter?  While 32% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida say a Cain endorsement makes no difference to their vote, 33% say it makes them more likely to cast their ballot for such a candidate while 29% report it will make them less likely to support a candidate with Cain’s backing.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of Cain Endorsement (FL Likely Voters)

Gingrich and Romney Deemed Acceptable as GOP Nominee

Almost two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters in Florida — 65% — think Gingrich is an acceptable candidate for the GOP nomination.  20% believe he is a good fit, but they have reservations, and 11% report he is unacceptable for the role.  Four percent are unsure.

Looking at Romney, nearly six in ten — 58% — perceive him to be an acceptable choice for the top of the GOP ticket while 28% think he is suitable, but they have some concerns.  10%, however, believe Romney is an unacceptable option, and 4% are unsure.

However, the narrative changes for Paul and Perry.  37% of likely Republican primary voters say Paul is an unacceptable pick for the Republican nomination while 27% think he is acceptable.  30% report Paul is satisfactory, but they have reservations, and 6% are unsure.

When it comes to Perry, 35% believe he is not a good fit for the top of the GOP ticket while 27% find him to be acceptable.  31% think Perry, overall, is acceptable, but they have concerns, and 7% are unsure.

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Gingrich (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Romney (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Paul (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability for Republican Nomination — Perry (FL Likely Voters)

Talking Controversy: Which Issues are Acceptable?

When it comes to positions on controversial issues, what are likely Republican primary voters in Florida willing to accept in a nominee?

Most — 92% — believe it is not acceptable for the Republican candidate to tolerate Iran building a nuclear weapon while only 5% think it is acceptable.  Three percent are unsure.

Eight in ten likely Republican primary voters — 80% — say it is problematic if the nominee supports allowing illegal immigrants to obtain in-state tuition.  14% do not find this stance to be objectionable, and 6% are unsure.

When it comes to a candidate who supports an individual mandate for health care insurance, 64% say it is not a desirable position while 25% find it acceptable, and 10% are unsure.

However, a majority of likely Republican primary voters in Florida — 53% — thinks it is acceptable for a candidate to support limited amnesty for some illegal immigrants.  41% believe it is unacceptable, and 7% are unsure.

Table: Acceptability of a Republican Candidate who Tolerates Nuclear Proliferation by Iran (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability of a Republican Candidate who Allows Illegal Immigrants to Receive In-State Tuition (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability of a Republican Candidate who Supports an Individual Mandate for Health Care Insurance (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Acceptability of a Republican Candidate who Supports Limited Amnesty for Some Illegal Immigrants (FL Likely Voters)

Candidate Qualities That Matter

Nearly three in ten likely Republican primary voters in Florida — 28% — believe it is most important that the Republican nominee have the ability to defeat President Barack Obama in the general election.  26% rate shared values as their top priority while 23% want someone who is closest to them on the issues.  20% believe a candidate with the experience to govern is the most important quality in a candidate, and 4% are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in October, 28% of likely Republican primary voters thought a candidate who was closest to them on the issues was the most important factor in a candidate.  More than one in four — 26% — cited shared values as their priority, 23% said electability was their priority while experience topped the check list for 21%.  Three percent, at that time, were unsure.

Key points:

• Gingrich fares best among likely Republican primary voters who value experience.  Here, he leads with a majority — 52% — to 29% for Romney.  Romney has lost ground among this group.  In October, a plurality of likely Republican primary voters in Florida who wanted a candidate with experience — 46% — supported Romney.
• Nearly half of those who rate electability as the most important candidate quality — 47% — favor Gingrich compared with 34% for Romney.
• Gingrich — 42% — also has the advantage over Romney — 22% — among those who want a candidate who shares their positions on the issues.
• Although Gingrich retains a lead, the contest tightens among likely Republican primary voters who want a candidate who shares their values.  38% favor Gingrich while 28% are behind Romney.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (FL Likely Voters)

Romney Ideology Mismatch for Florida Likely Voters

Looking at the perception of Romney’s ideology, a majority of likely Republican primary voters in Florida — 56% — describes Romney as a moderate, and 10% say he is a liberal.  Only 23% think he is a conservative.  10% are unsure.

Romney’s ideology is not compatible with that of the likely Republican electorate in Florida.  Only 26% of these voters describe themselves as moderate and 4% view themselves as liberal.  70% identify as conservative.

Table: Mitt Romney Ideology (FL Likely Voters)

Majority Says a Mormon is a Christian

57% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida think a Mormon is a Christian while 43% say a Mormon is not a Christian or are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since October.  At that time, almost six in ten likely Republican primary voters — 58% — reported they believed a Mormon is a Christian while 42% said a Mormon is not a Christian or were unsure.

Key points:

• Gingrich — 45% — is ahead of Romney — 20% — among likely Republican primary voters who report a Mormon is not a Christian or are unsure.  Among those who say a Mormon is a Christian, the race tightens.  42% back Gingrich compared with 35% who support Romney.

Table: Are Mormons Christian? (FL Likely Voters)

Obama Ahead of GOP Challengers…Lead Grows against Romney

Looking at hypothetical matchups for the general election, Romney remains President Obama’s closest competitor.  However, the president has widened his lead over his potential Republican challenger.

Among registered voters in Florida, 48% back the president while 41% support Romney, and 11% are undecided.

In October, voters divided.  45% were for Obama while 43% were behind Romney, and 12% were undecided.

Against Gingrich, the president leads with a majority — 51% — to 39% for Gingrich.  10% are undecided.

President Obama has a 13 percentage point lead against Paul.  In this hypothetical contest, 49% favor the president while 36% rally for Paul.  14% are undecided.

In 2008, President Obama narrowly won Florida with 51% to 48% for John McCain.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (FL Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Gingrich (FL Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Paul (FL Registered Voters)

Voters Divide about Obama’s Job Performance

46% of registered voters in Florida approve of the job President Obama is doing in office while 45% disapprove, and 9% are unsure.

The perception of the president’s job performance has improved in Florida.  In NBC News/Marist’s October survey, nearly half — 49% — disapproved of the president’s job performance while 41% approved, and 10% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Florida (FL Registered Voters)

NBC News/Marist Poll Methodology

12/9: A Look at the GOP Contest in Iowa and New Hampshire

With time counting down to the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, are there more twists and turns ahead?

The Marist Poll’s John Sparks visits with Marist Poll Analyst and syndicated political columnist Carl Leubsdorf who writes a weekly column for The Dallas Morning News about the latest trends in the 2012 campaign for the GOP presidential nomination.

Listen to the interview below.

John Sparks
Carl, it’s less than a month until the Iowa caucuses, and according to the latest Marist Poll there have been some changes. But before we talk about those changes, I’ve got to ask you: Which is more important to a candidate, Iowa or New Hampshire?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, it depends which candidate, I think, because for certain of the candidates for the group of — that we call the conservatives in this race, they’re all conservative, but basically who have been jockeying all year for position, and I’m talking about Speaker Gingrich, Governor Perry, Representative Bachman, in particular Herman Cain because he’s not there anymore, and to a lesser degree Ron Paul, Iowa is more important because it’s going to establish the pecking order among those people. In effect, we’ve had sort of two primaries going on, the — on one side, the establishment side, we’ve had Romney and the two former governors, Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, and on the other side, we’ve had the other candidates. So, among the other candidates, they’re jockeying for position, and Iowa is extremely important because of the nature of the electorate, quite conservative. It’s a caucus system which encourages activists, so… But for Governor Romney, while there’s some importance in Iowa, the key thing for him is to win New Hampshire and win it decisively so that the media does not write: Well he won, but he didn’t meet expectations because he needs to use New Hampshire where he has a summer home and where he spends a lot of time as a board to sort of propel himself into the primaries in South Carolina and Florida.

John Sparks
Well, let’s talk about Iowa first since it comes first. The caucuses are January 3^rd, and the latest Marist Poll has Newt Gingrich on top with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18% and Ron Paul at 17%. Now Marist Poll Director Lee Miringoff says, “Hold on tight for further twists and turns.” Carl, do you think we could see more changes between now and January the 3rd?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, historically there have been a lot of changes in the last six weeks, and one thing I’ve been advising everyone that I’ve talked to and probably have discussed in these interviews previously, is that Iowa tends to firm up in the last month to six weeks. There are a lot of changes near the end, and the way it stands in August or in June probably isn’t going to be the way it’s going to end up, and that, in fact, has happened with the emergence of Speaker Gingrich as the leader there. It’s going to be interesting. I don’t know whether he can maintain it. It’s a shorter period he has to maintain it than some of the others who’ve come up. There’s the question: If he doesn’t maintain it, who would get his votes since just about everyone of his rivals among that group has been up there earlier.

Ron Paul is an interesting and sort of a separate phenomenon. He has a very fervent following, a lot of it young people. He’s got a solid vote, which is I would rate at 10-to-12%. But the latest poll is, not only the Marist Poll but the two others that were taken, show his numbers coming up in Iowa, so he’s clearly a contender for first place.

And the third player near the top of the poll, Governor Romney, has not spent that much time in Iowa. He spent a lot of time four years ago. He definitely has a following. We have to remember that while the Iowa Republican Party and likely caucus attendees are pretty conservative, maybe a quarter to a third of them are more moderate and more establishment, and Romney will do very well there whether he spends a lot of time in Iowa or not. I found interesting in these last polls, and we’ll find out later if it was meaningful, Romney’s numbers appear to have come down in Iowa for no particular reason, and this is the phenomenon we saw four years ago that the more he campaigned in a place, the less well he did, and people forget that at one point he was the leader in both Iowa and New Hampshire four years ago, and he ended up winning neither. So, whether we’re seeing that phenomenon in the fact that he’s dropped from the mid 20s into the upper teens (inaudible) polling caucuses is very difficult and finding likely attendees.

Listen to Part 1 of the Interview:

John Sparks
You know, Carl, second choices might tell us something because Herman Cain was still in the race when the Marist Poll was taken, and 28% of Cain’s supporters said that Gingrich was their second choice, followed by Paul and Romney with each 19%.

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, I think the general assumption has been that Cain’s vote is… more of it will go to Gingrich than to anyone else. They’re both from Georgia. They both had some affinity on the issues. They’re quite…  There are a few suggestions that Cain will in fact endorse Gingrich fairly soon, so that’s not surprising. In a way, the thing that Romney most fears is the consolidation of the conservative vote behind one candidate early in the game. Romney was counting on the fact that the conservative vote would stay very divided, and, in fact, in a very divided conservative vote, Romney with say 25% might win the Iowa caucuses. But if the vote begins to consolidate in Iowa behind one person, then, at the moment that appears to be Gingrich, that’s a problem for a candidate like Romney who has shown great difficulty in getting above about a quarter of the vote everywhere except in New Hampshire.

John Sparks

The Marist Poll showed that among caucus goers who consider themselves Tea Party or conservative and Evangelical Christians, Gingrich gets 35% compared to only 11% for Romney.

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, that’s not Romney’s electorate, but the… I didn’t notice what percentage in your poll was people who consider themselves conservatives as opposed to moderate or however it’s described in the poll, and maybe it wasn’t asked. But I said, the assumption has been about two-thirds of the caucus electorate or maybe a little more would be Tea Party people, Right-To-Lifers, Christian conservatives, the various factions that make up the right side of the Republican Party, and that is not a group that where Romney is going to do very well.

Listen to Part 2:

John Sparks
You know, I think it’s always interesting, polling people and asking them why they vote like they do, and in Iowa, three in ten that are likely to be caucus goers tell us they want a candidate who is closest to them on issues – 29% say the candidate who shares their values is a key, and that’s flip-flopped a month ago. Any significance to this that now there’s…

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, I think it seems to be fewer of them are saying that the first choice would be someone they think that can win, and actually we’ve seen in the some of the polls lately, more people think that Gingrich can win than think Romney can win. Romney has not… Romney has run this very buttoned up campaign where he tries to avoid the other candidates, where he behaves like the front-runner, where he straddles the issues and tries to say as little as possible, and when you combine that with his bland personality and the fact that he doesn’t have much of a persona, I think it’s hurt him, and I think it’s, you know, Gingrich has emerged as a more dynamic candidate, as a candidate who could get in Obama’s face. I mean, the thing that Republicans want most is to beat President Obama. They want a candidate who will stick it to him in the debates and who will be outspoken, and I think they see Romney is not able to do that. So, in the other candidates, and I say Gingrich is the favorite of the moment, they see ones who both agree with them and can be aggressive against Obama.

John Sparks
It’s interesting that you mention the general election. When Iowans turn to the general election, Obama ties Ron Paul, but he defeats Gingrich in Iowa 47% to 37% and he defeats Romney 46% to 39%.

Carl Leubsdorf
That’s interesting. That’s especially interesting because Iowans have been subjected to a steady barrage of anti-Obama rhetoric. The president’s been there a couple of times, but since there is no Democratic primary, most of the — most of what’s coming out in politics is Republicans, and most of what they’re doing is attacking Obama, and for Obama’s numbers to hold up that well is probably a good sign for him from the Fall that I think it’s the calculation of the Obama campaign at this point that in a relatively close election where they have a reasonable chance to win, Iowa would be one of those states that the president would be able to carry. It’s considered one of the states definitely in play. It was carried by, I guess, by Bush in ’04 and by Obama in ’08, but that is not a great sign for the Republicans, and there’s some sense, and there’s a new Pew Poll on this too, that what’s going on in the Republican Party has actually hurt the party somewhat. Whether that will have a long-term affect, we don’t know.

Listen to Part 3:

John Sparks
Carl, organization has always been an important factor in the campaign.  Is it still an important factor, especially in Iowa?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, it’s important in Iowa because in order to vote, you have to go to a caucus in your precinct, and there are 2,400 precincts in Iowa, and the weather in January when this takes place is often not very good, and traditionally, the way you won in Iowa is you set up a structure in every county, you said the 99 counties and then a lot of the towns, to get people out to the caucuses. I think that’s going to be less of a factor. If it is a big factor, Speaker Gingrich will be in big trouble because he doesn’t have much of an organization there. Ron Paul’s got a perfect organization out there supposedly, and Mitt Romney has one because he had one four years ago. But, this campaign has really been fought out in the televised debates. That’s what’s really driven the race and have gotten the most attention, and the flubs of the various candidates like Governor Perry’s problem, naming the third department he would get rid of or outside issues like the problem Mr. Cain had with various women have really driven the narrative of this campaign, and television advertising’s about to start really full scale in Iowa, but I don’t think that’s the major factor either. I would guess organization will be less important. But if we wake up on caucus morning and Newt Gingrich is in fourth place, then we’ll know organization was more important than we think it is, but I think it’s been reduced a lot.  Another factor on the organization side is there’s a difference between the Democratic caucuses and the Republican caucuses in Iowa.  In the Democratic caucuses, they have a system where if you get — if someone has less than 15%, their support doesn’t count. The caucuses are precinct caucuses. They elect delegates to the county conventions, which eventually this will get to a state convention. In the Democrats, they all line up for the different candidates in different corners of the room. Anyone who’s got under 15%, his candidate is out, and those people can go join one of the other groups, and you really need organization to do that. The Republicans have a straight vote. It’s like a straw poll. When they arrive at the caucus, they vote for one of the candidates, and that’s how the delegates are allocated to the county then. That’s much easier. It’s more like a regular election than a primary than like a caucus, and if they don’t want to stay for the discussion of the issues and all that, they can go back home as soon as they vote. The Democrats, you got to stay awhile. So, it’s another factor that reduces the importance of organization in this election.

Listen to Part 4:

John Sparks
Let’s go from Iowa to New Hampshire. The New Hampshire primary comes a week after the Iowa caucuses, and the latest Marist Poll shows that in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney is in the lead 39% to 23% over Gingrich, but that lead has been cut in half since last month’s Marist Poll in New Hampshire. Any significance there?

Carl Leubsdorf

Yeah, I think a couple of interesting things there. One, Romney has steadily been… I think most of the fact that it’s been cut in half is probably because Gingrich has gained and less that Romney has been consistently in most polls in the neighborhood of 40%. And the fact is, if he gets 40% in the primaries, he’s almost certainly going to win. One thing… the biggest caution on New Hampshire is that the day after the Iowa caucuses, all the numbers you’ve seen so far in New Hampshire will be worthless because the numbers will change according to what happens in Iowa. It happens every year, you see a real change, and the fact that the primaries are only — and the caucus in Iowa and the primary is in New Hampshire are only week apart means that there can be a big affect of what happens in Iowa. What that means is that the winner in Iowa will get a boost in New Hampshire. Now, if it’s Gingrich, and he’s already surpassed 20%, that could put him up near the 30% level. And, unless Romney comes out of Iowa with a feeling well he did okay considering he didn’t campaign much there, his numbers might come down a little bit. Now if Romney’s numbers come down a little bit, that votes probably not going to go to Gingrich, it’s probably going to go to Jon Huntsman who is the former Governor of Utah, has concentrated in New Hampshire, and although his record is equally as conservative as the other candidates, his more moderate manner and the fact that he’s not spent all of his time bashing President Obama gives him an appeal to the independents.  Remember in New Hampshire, independents can vote in the primary, and with no Democratic primary, we expect a lot of independents to vote there. Not all independents are moderate to liberal to be sure, but I think there are more of those than arch conservatives. So, what you’ll see in… Now if Romney comes in to say a strong second in Iowa, his numbers will hold up very well, but if comes in a weak third, he may suffer some erosion there, and certainly the winner in Iowa will get a bump up, so you’ll see a change there by the Thursday or Friday of that week, and it’ll determine whether anyone actually has a chance of beating Romney. The great fear I think from the Romney point of view is that he survives to win, but he wins so narrowly that it does not give him a boost for the later primaries. As I said before, New Hampshire is extremely important to Romney. He was governor of a neighboring state. He has a summer home there. He’s spent a lot of time there. He really needs to have a strong victory there, or he’s going to have real problems when the race moves south.

John Sparks
Interesting that you mention the independent voters in New Hampshire. Romney leads Gingrich by 12 points among Republicans in New Hampshire, but when it comes to independents, his lead opens up to 21 points over Gingrich.

Carl Leubsdorf
Well that’s exactly right because the two candidates who the independents are most likely to vote for or like more than will vote for are Romney, considered the moderate in this race. Remember, he’s taken all these conservative positions, but a lot of people don’t believe he really believes them, including a lot of conservatives, so he will get a lot of that independent vote, but if he falls or has seen trouble, it’ll go to Huntsman I think.

Listen to Part 5:

John Sparks
According to Marist, the New Hampshire voters are firmly committed to their candidate – 49% say they’re strongly committed while 31% report they’re somewhat committed, whatever that means, but that may tell us something…

Carl Leubsdorf
That’s more than in Iowa is and…  that’s more than in Iowa that it’s… they’re less committed, I think.

John Sparks
Correct, but I wondering if this might tell us something about what the general election might be like in New Hampshire. There’s something that’s interesting about New Hampshire.  Marist has President Obama losing to Romney in New Hampshire by only three points, 46/43, but they have the president defeating Ron Paul by only two points, and they have the president defeating Gingrich by ten points and yet…

Carl Leubsdorf
I think…

John Sparks
I was going to say – and yet a majority of New Hampshire voters, 52%, say they don’t approve of Obama’s performance.

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, I think if you compare the two states, Obama has much less chance of carrying New Hampshire than Iowa, especially if his opponent is Romney who is — we said is well known there and has ties there. He is not popular in New Hampshire. All the polls have shown that consistently. He’ll have a difficult time carrying New Hampshire. I would bet if you could get an Obama person to say what was the map that they would have assuming that they barely got over the 270 mark needed for an electoral vote, what’s on that map? I would guess that Iowa would be on it and New Hampshire would not.

John Sparks
Probably so.

Carl Leubsdorf
One of the interesting things in New Hampshire that I should mention is the influence of the Union Leader newspaper. For years, the Union Leader, which is the only statewide paper in New Hampshire, has played an outsized role in New Hampshire Republican politics. It’s… the person that has supported hasn’t always won, but a recent study showed that, I think by Nate Silver of the New York Times, was that the endorsement of the Union Leader is definitely worth a number of points.  That candidates who were endorsed by the Union Leader gained strength afterwards. A couple weeks ago they endorsed Speaker Gingrich as their candidate. That’s undoubtedly one of the factors in his rise to 23% in the Marist Poll, and it will be a factor because when the Union Leader endorses someone, they don’t just write one editorial and then go back to their knitting.  There will be more front page editorials in the Union Leader, and not only will they spend some time supporting Gingrich, but they will be beating up on the candidates they don’t want, and number one on that list is Mitt Romney. So, that is going to part of the dynamic here. It will help whoever emerges from Iowa as the leader of that conservative group, and, at the moment, it looks like it will be Speaker Gingrich.

John Sparks
Carl, I’ve got to ask you with everything that’s going on in my business, people are not reading newspapers as much, so does the Union Leader still have the influence it once had?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, you know it’s interesting in New Hampshire.  It’s the closest thing to a statewide newspaper. Television, there’s only really one major television station in New Hampshire, WMUR in Manchester. Now, of course, they get news on cable, and they get a lot of Boston TV in New Hampshire, but New Hampshire outlets — New Hampshire has an interesting group of newspapers. I know a fair amount about it because my son, Ben, works for the Concord Monitor. There’s a string of local regional papers in New Hampshire, most of them dailies but some weeklies, and which have a fair amount of readership in their local area. The Union Leader has more influence. Manchester is the biggest city in New Hampshire. It has a bigger readership, and also what the Union Leader does gets trumpeted by TV. It’s always a big thing. What some of the smaller papers do doesn’t get as much as publicity.  So, I think it’s less than it once was, but all signs are it does have influence and especially on the Republican side.

John Sparks
Carl, it’s always interesting to talk presidential politics with you. We’re getting to that time when the rubber meets the road, and I look forward to visiting with you again real soon.

Listen to Part 6:

12/8: Why GOP Primary Poll Numbers Could Be Wrong

10. Many voters waiting until November 12th to make up their minds

9. Romney voters claim our questions are biased by asking about the Newt Hampshire primary
8. GOP voters torn between anybody-but-Obama vote and anybody-but-Romney vote
7. Couldn’t find enough people in Lexington and Concord voting in the New Hampshire primary
6. Voters agree with Paul that the Trump debate turns reality politics into reality TV.  Yet, they still don’t want Iran to have a nuke
5. Tea Party voters were at Tea Party when we tried to reach them
4. Likely voters suddenly switched to not-likely voters when they realized Obama was about to put electrified fences around GOP primary voting booths
3. Forgot number 3… oops!
2. Confused Iowa voters thought we were asking about 1988 candidate de-caucus.
1. Voters waited for us to ask them about Trump, Palin, Huckabee, Daniels, Giuliani, Barbour, Christie, got frustrated and hung up.

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