10/31: First Lady Still Thought of Favorably by More than Six in Ten

Presidential candidates willingly step into the political spotlight, but their spouses are, sometimes, reluctant participants. What is the role of a candidate’s spouse on the campaign trail? Historically, how important have they been? Veteran news correspondent Bonnie Angelo discusses this topic with the Marist Poll’s John Sparks.

Bonnie Angelo, author of "First Families: The Impact of the White House on Their Lives" and "First Mothers: The Women Who Shaped the Presidents" (courtesy HarperCollins).

Listen to Part 1 of the Interview:

John Sparks

Bonnie, we’re in the throes of a presidential election. We read and see a lot about the candidates, but do the candidates’ wives play any significant role in the campaign?

Bonnie Angelo

I would say that the candidates’ wives in this day and age play a very significant role. A candidate’s wife can be a tremendous help, or she can be a disaster. If she says the wrong thing at the right time, it can haunt her. So, she’s playing a very important role because people expect a candidate’s wife, the person who wants to be First Lady, live in the White House, be a public figure around the world, she’s got to have something more than just average sorts background. So, I think that the candidate’s wives are going to be examined more closely. Each election, they’re going to be examined more closely than they were before. They’ve got to be public figures, and they’ve got to understand it from the start.

John Sparks

Is it the press who is responsible for this attention on the wives? I recall when Jackie Kennedy became the media darling, but she really did not like the campaign, did she?

Bonnie Angelo

Oh, Jackie hated it. She hated the whole scene of politics. She wanted the White House, and she did beautiful things with the White House, but she did not want to live up to the part where you have to shake a lot of hands, be in boring meetings, be on display whether you want to be or not. She didn’t really like that; she wanted it on her own terms. She pretty well managed that, too.

John Sparks

Well, that takes me to leaping to Hillary Clinton. She actively campaigned for her husband Bill, and then of course, four years ago, she was a candidate. Now, I think it’s fair to say that with the Clinton’s, either Hillary or Bill, that most folks are not on the fence. They either really like them, or they don’t. But I’m just curious, was Bill an asset or a liability in Hillary’s run against Obama four years ago?

Bonnie Angelo

I think he was an asset. I think he took great pains not to overshadow her. He did a lot of things on her behalf, speeches and that kind of thing, in a way that did not attract that much attention. I believe that he was truly supportive, and I think that both of them thought how exciting it would have been for the each of them to have been President of the United States. It would be historic, and they had a great sense of history. So, I think that he kept his place very nicely, shall we say.

Listen to Part 2:

Click Here for Complete October 19, 2011 South Carolina NBC News/Marist Poll Release

John Sparks

Sure. Now, I recall back in 1998 when Hillary is campaigning for Bill on his first run. She made a comment during the campaign that she would not be the kind of woman that would be at home baking cookies, and that prompted Family Circle magazine, they sponsored this cookie bakeoff between Hillary and Barbara Bush, and certainly got a lot of press, but did that have any impact on the election at all?

Bonnie Angelo

I don’t think it had any impact on the election. I think the election was going to go the way it would, but it did not help because once she was doing was demeaning the role of the average American housewife, and I think that they could see that it was like they were being kind of scoffed at for baking cookies. Now, she should have handled that smoother. Would have done it had she stopped to think. One of the problems for candidates, there’s no time to stop and think. A question comes flying at you, and you answer it, and you think, “Oh, I wish I hadn’t said that,” but she couldn’t take it back. But, I don’t think that helped her at all.

John Sparks

You know in thinking about things that one might want to take back, in 2004, John Kerry’s wife, Teresa Heinz, made a comment about Laura Bush. She said that Laura had never really held a real job. That hurt her I think, and then also the fact that Teresa Heinz had also been a Republican before she married John Kerry, but was she really a factor in the outcome of that election in 2004?

Bonnie Angelo

No, I think the handwriting was already on the wall on that. I don’t think she helped, not at all. Maybe, she cased some vote, but I don’t think the outcome would have been any different. It was not, shall we say she had not thought it through what she was saying, because you can’t insult somebody in a rather personal way, the way she seemed to insult Laura Bush. Not a wise thing to say, she never put her foot wrong again after that, but you have to be very, very, I should say, the candidate’s wife has got to be very, very careful where she makes — gives opinions.

John Sparks

In summing up, what would you say is the primary thing a candidate’s wife should remember about her role during a campaign?

Bonnie Angelo

I think she could remember that she is out there to help his cause, not in any way trying to overshadow him, and I think they don’t instinctively, but they must bear that in mind that to be very careful not to say anything, to be so well versed in the issues that she would not say anything that could be used against him, and to be supportive of him without being a doormat.

John Sparks

Bonnie, it’s always a pleasure to talk to you. I appreciate your time this afternoon.

Tags: Barbara Bush, first spouses, Hillary Clinton, Jackie Kennedy, Laura Bush, Obama, Teresa Heinz

10/24: Back to the Presidential Future

October 24, 2011 by Lee Miringoff
Filed under Election Blogs, Featured, Lee Miringoff

1 Comment

Can’t be certain just yet if the future for campaign ’12 will turn out to be as we remember it, I have this nagging feeling that we’ve experienced something resembling this year’s fisticuffs way back when. I’m thinking of the presidential campaigns of 1968, 1972, and 1976 and am not sure which path we are on this election cycle.

In the turbulent and tragic times of 1968, we witnessed an explosive reaction from the progressive side of society targeted at an incumbent Democratic president. The more conservative GOP couldn’t serve as an outlet for the frustration so it spilled onto the street. I’ve noticed that energy pouring out of Occupy Wall Street and see the similarities.

Where does the political energy go when the occupant of the White House is in the middle of the political spectrum between protesters and his conservative GOP electoral challengers? Does the protest end up being bad news for President Obama by sapping the enthusiasm for change he had harnessed in 2008? Maybe… Maybe not.

Then, there’s the 1972 election when a small, highly motivated wing of the Democratic Party captured the nominating process primary by primary, state by state at the exclusion of the party establishment. Its candidate carried one state in the general election in the fall. Now, I’m not going to suggest that the Tea Party movement could wreak this degree of havoc on the GOP in 2012. But, most of the anti-Romney candidates would be welcome opponents to team Obama.

If you don’t buy this scenario, try 1976 and the nomination of Jimmy Carter. Here, the eventual nominee emerged with his party’s nomination by playing off a lengthy field of candidates from the opposite side of his party. He narrowly carried a slew of primaries to emerge under the system of proportional delegate selection to win. This would be the 2012 Mitt Romney model.

Is there a prototype from these three examples that fits 2012? Stay tuned. Clearly, it is always difficult making predictions especially about the future, and hindsight is, after all, always 20/20.

Tags: 1968, 1972, 1976, Campaign 2012, Obama, Romney, tea party

10/19: NBC News/Marist Poll: Cain Edges Romney in South Carolina

October 19, 2011 by Marist Poll
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/Marist Poll

1 Comment

Herman Cain narrowly leads Mitt Romney in the contest for the Republican nomination in South Carolina. The two current front-runners are separated by just four percentage points in this NBC News/Marist Poll.

©istockphoto.com/Pgiam

Click Here for Complete October 19, 2011 South Carolina NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina:

30% for Herman Cain
26% for Mitt Romney
9% for Rick Perry
6% for Newt Gingrich
5% for Ron Paul
5% for Michele Bachmann
2% for Rick Santorum
1% for Jon Huntsman
Less than 1% for Gary Johnson
15% are undecided

“This first test of candidate strength in the South is shaping up right now as a two-way contest between Cain and Romney,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Team Romney has to be concerned about Cain’s 40% lead among likely South Carolina voters who strongly support the Tea Party.”

When considering those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 31% support Cain while 28% back Romney. One in ten — 10% — favors Perry, and 7% are behind Gingrich. Paul and Bachmann each garner 5% of the vote while Santorum receives the support of 2%. One percent favors Huntsman while less than 1% toss their support behind Johnson. One in ten — 10% — is still undecided.

Among South Carolina’s potential Republican electorate, Cain and Romney are neck and neck. Cain garners the support of 28% compared with 27% for Romney. 10% back Perry while Gingrich and Paul each receive 6% of the vote. Five percent favor Bachmann, 2% support Santorum, and 1% backs Huntsman. Less than 1% are behind Johnson, and 17% are undecided.

Key points:

Cain does better among Tea Party supporters (45% of the likely electorate) — 41% — and especially among those who strongly support the Tea Party (17%) — 52%.
Conservatives (50% of the likely electorate) — 32% — and especially those who are very conservative (21%) — 36% — also buoy Cain.
Cain also has the advantage among Evangelical Christians (40% of the likely electorate). Among these voters, Cain receives 30%.
Among likely Republican primary voters who say they are Tea Party supporters, conservatives, and Evangelical Christians (21% of the likely Republican electorate), 36% back Cain.
However, Romney does better among non-Tea Party supporters (44% of the likely primary electorate). He receives 30% of the vote.

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary (SC Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary (SC Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary (SC Potential Republican Electorate)

Tea Party Drives Support

45% of likely Republican primary voters who support the Tea party and a majority of those who strongly support the Tea Party — 56% — are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.

Only 39% of likely GOP primary voters overall strongly support their choice of candidate. 34% somewhat support their pick while one in four — 25% — might change their mind. Two percent are unsure.

Key points:

Just 36% of likely Republican primary voters who are Evangelical Christians strongly support their candidate.
45% of Cain supporters are firmly committed to him while 37% of Romney’s backers are staunchly in his corner.

Table: Intensity of Support (SC Likely Voters)

One in Four Likely Voters Can’t Get No Satisfaction from GOP Field

Although 66% of likely Republican primary voters are satisfied with the candidates seeking the nomination, a notable 25% are dissatisfied. Nine percent are unsure.

Table: Level of Satisfaction with the Republican Field of Candidates (SC Likely Voters)

Cain and Romney Neck and Neck in Three-Way Contest…Perry Trails Behind

If the Republican Presidential Primary comes down to a race between Cain, Romney, and Perry, 37% of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina say they would support Cain. Romney receives the backing of 35% while 16% throw their support behind Perry. 12% are undecided.

Table: Three-Way 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary (SC Likely Voters)

Debates Drum Up Support for Cain

The Republican debates have been an effective platform for Herman Cain. Among likely GOP primary voters who have watched at least most of the debates, 39% back Cain compared with 24% for Romney.

How many Republicans have tuned in for the debates? Nearly four in ten likely Republican primary voters — 39% — have watched all or most of the debates while 61% have watched little or none of the televised GOP debates.

Table: Viewed Republican Debates (SC Likely Voters)

Values and Issues Top List of Factors Important to SC GOPers

When it comes to the characteristics likely Republican primary voters want in a candidate, 31% want someone who shares their values while 27% think a candidate who is closest to them on the issues is the key factor when choosing a candidate. One in five — 20% — favors someone with experience while 19% want a candidate who can defeat President Barack Obama in next year’s general election. Three percent are unsure.

Key points:

Cain — 33% — bests Romney — 19% — among likely Republican primary voters who want a candidate who shares their values.
Although a closer contest, Cain also leads Romney, 35% to 28%, among issues voters.
Cain also does better among those who think electability is the key. Among these voters, 32% back Cain compared with 26% for Romney.
However, Romney has the advantage among likely Republican primary voters who believe experience matters the most. 33% support Romney while 21% toss their support behind Cain.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (SC Likely Voters)

Voters’ Views about the Mormon Faith

The Mormon faith, shared by candidates Romney and Huntsman, became an issue in the campaign when a Baptist minister and Perry supporter likened it to a cult. Do likely Republican voters in South Carolina believe Mormons to be Christians? A majority — 53% — either believe they are not or are unsure while 47% say Mormons are Christians.

Key points:

Among likely voters who do not think someone of the Mormon faith is Christian or are unsure about it (53% of the likely electorate), 33% support Cain, Romney receives the backing of 19%, and 11% are for Perry.
67% of those who are Evangelical Christians say Mormons are not Christians, or they are unsure.

Table: Are Mormons Christian? (SC Likely Voters)

Romney Leads Obama…Cain, Perry Run Competitively

South Carolina is a deal breaker for Republicans. If they want to re-claim the White House, they need to carry this red state. In 2008, President Barack Obama lost South Carolina by nine percentage points. How do the top three candidates fare against the president?

If Romney and Obama face off in next year’s general election, 46% of registered voters in South Carolina would back Romney while four in ten — 40% — would support Obama. 14% are undecided.

South Carolina’s electorate divides in a contest between Perry and Obama. 43% would cast their ballot for Perry while 42% would vote for Obama. 15% are undecided.

Cain is also competitive with Obama. 44% say they would support Cain while 42% would back Obama. 13% are undecided.

Key points:

Independent voters make the difference. Romney has a 13 percentage point lead against Obama among these voters. Romney receives 47% to Obama’s 34%.
Cain — 45% — also has the advantage against Obama — 36% — among independent voters.
Independent voters divide in a contest between Perry — 40% — and Obama — 37%.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (SC Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry (SC Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Cain (SC Registered Voters)

Majority Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance

Only four in ten — 40% — of registered voters in South Carolina approve of the job President Obama is doing in office while 51% disapprove. Nine percent are unsure.

By party:

Republican and Democratic voters run true to party lines with 90% of Republican voters saying they disapprove of the job the president is doing and 83% of Democratic voters reporting they approve.
A majority of independent voters in South Carolina — 54% — disapprove of the president’s job performance.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in South Carolina (SC Registered Voters)

About Two-Thirds Think Nation’s Compass is Broken…Nearly Six in Ten Say the U.S. Economy Will Get Worse

67% of South Carolina residents believe the country is moving in the wrong direction while 23% say it is traveling along the appropriate path. Nine percent are unsure. Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

When thinking about the future of the U.S. economy, 58% of adults in South Carolina report the worst is yet to come while 34% believe the worst is behind us. Nine percent are unsure.

Key points:

71% of Republicans and six in ten — 60% — independent voters believe the worst of the nation’s economic problems are ahead. Even 38% of Democrats share this view.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (SC Adults)

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse (SC Adults)

To read the MSNBC story: Cain leads in S.C.; tight Fla. race with Romney

Tags:

10/19: NBC News/Marist Poll: Cain and Romney Neck and Neck in Florida’s GOP Contest

October 19, 2011 by Marist Poll
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/Marist Poll

Click Here for Complete October 19, 2011 Florida NBC News/Marist Poll Release

In the battle for the Republican presidential nomination in Florida, Herman Cain and Mitt Romney are locked in a close race.

©istockphoto.com/Pgiam

Click Here for Complete October 19, 2011 Florida NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican primary voters in Florida:

32% for Herman Cain
31% for Mitt Romney
8% for Rick Perry
6% for Ron Paul
6% for Newt Gingrich
2% for Michele Bachmann
2% for Jon Huntsman
1% for Rick Santorum
Less than 1% for Gary Johnson
11% are undecided

“You can’t get to the convention in Tampa without going through Florida,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Interestingly, Romney’s getting now about what he ended up with in the ’08 primary.”

When those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate are brought into the mix, 33% of likely Republican primary voters back Romney while 32% support Cain. Perry receives 9% of the vote followed by Paul and Gingrich who each garner 6%. Two percent favor Bachmann, and the same proportion — 2% — are behind Huntsman. One percent supports Santorum while less than 1% is behind Johnson. Eight percent are still undecided.

There is little change when looking at Florida’s potential Republican electorate. Here, three in ten — 30% — support Romney while 29% are behind Cain. Nine percent favor Perry, 7% back Paul, and 6% throw their support toward Gingrich. Bachmann receives the backing of 3% followed by Huntsman with 2%. Johnson and Santorum each receive 1% of the vote, and 13% are undecided.

Key points:

Cain does better among likely Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party (50% of the likely primary electorate) — 40% — and especially among those who strongly support the Tea Party (20% of the likely primary electorate) — 43%.
Those who are very conservative (21% of the likely primary electorate) — 42% — and Evangelical Christians (28% of the likely primary electorate) — 35% — also bolster Cain’s support.
Among likely Republican primary voters who say they are Tea Party supporters, conservatives, and Evangelical Christians (13% of the likely primary electorate), 34% back Cain.
However, Romney does better among likely Republican primary voters who do not support the Tea Party (44% of the likely primary electorate). Here, Romney receives 38% among these voters.

Table: 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary (FL Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary (FL Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary (FL Potential Republican Electorate)

Plurality of Voters Strongly Support Choice of Candidate…Tea Party Support Matters

Nearly half of likely voters who are Tea Party supporters — 49% — and almost six in ten — 59% — of those who say they strongly support the Tea Party are firmly committed to their choice of candidate. Among likely Republican primary voters overall, 44% say they strongly support their candidate, 27% are somewhat behind their pick, and the same proportion — 27% — thinks they might vote differently come primary day. Two percent are unsure.

Key points:

Four in ten likely Republican primary voters who are Evangelical Christians — 40% — are strongly committed to their candidate.
A majority of voters who support Cain — 52% — are firmly in his camp compared with 41% of likely voters who back Romney.

Table: Intensity of Support (FL Likely Voters)

Three in Ten Dissatisfied with GOP Field

Although 63% of likely Republican primary voters are satisfied with the candidates from which to choose, a notable 30% are not satisfied. Eight percent are unsure.

Table: Level of Satisfaction with the Republican Field of Candidates (FL Likely Voters)

Romney and Cain Tied in Three-Way Contest…Perry Trails Behind

If the Republican field comes down to Romney, Cain, and Perry, 40% of likely Republican primary voters say they would support Romney. The same proportion — 40% — report they would back Cain while just one in ten — 10% — would cast their ballot for Perry. 10% are undecided.

Table: Three-Way 2012 Florida Republican Presidential Primary (FL Likely Voters)

Cain Captures Debate Spotlight

Herman Cain’s performance in the Republican debates has paid off. Almost four in ten likely Republican primary voters who have watched at least most of the debates — 39% — support Cain while 29% back Romney.

Are likely primary voters in Florida watching the Republican debates? 47% say they have watched all or most of them while a majority — 53% — report they have watched very little or none of the televised debates.

Table: Viewed Republican Debates (FL Likely Voters)

What Matters Most in a Candidate? Little Consensus Among Likely Voters in Florida

When selecting a candidate to support, which factors matter the most to likely Republican primary voters? 28% want someone who is closest to them on the issues. Shared values follow closely behind with 26% while 23% say electability is the key. 21% want a candidate who has the experience to govern, and 3% are unsure.

Key points:

Cain fares best among likely Republican primary voters who want someone who is closest to them on the issues. A plurality of these voters — 46% — supports Cain.
However, Romney bests the competition among those who want a candidate with experience — 44%.
Cain and Romney are competitive among values voters and those who are intent on defeating President Obama in the general election. 29% of values voters back Cain compared with 28% for Romney. Among those who think electability is the key, 33% are behind Romney while 32% back Cain.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (FL Likely Voters)

Impressions of the Mormon Faith

The Mormon faith, shared by candidates Romney and Huntsman, took center stage when a Baptist pastor and supporter of Rick Perry equated it to a cult. Do likely Republican voters in Florida consider Mormons to be Christians?

While nearly six in ten — 58% — believe Mormons are Christians, a notable 42% don’t think they are or are unsure.

Key points:

Among likely voters who do not think Mormons are Christians or are unsure (42% of the likely primary electorate), 30% back Cain, 24% support Romney, and 10% back Perry.
Nearly seven in ten Evangelical Christians — 68% — do not think Mormons are Christians.

Table: Are Mormons Christian? (FL Likely Voters)

Romney Competitive with Obama…Obama Leads Perry, Cain

In a state that Obama carried narrowly in 2008, if Romney were to face off against President Barack Obama in next year’s presidential election, 45% of registered voters in Florida would cast their ballot for the president while 43% would support Romney. 12% are undecided.

Obama opens up a lead when matched against Perry or Cain. When up against Cain, the president has a six percentage point lead. 47% support the president while 41% are behind Cain. 13% are undecided.

In a general election matchup with Perry, the president’s advantage is eight percentage points. Here, 47% back the president compared with 39% for Perry. 13% are undecided.

Key points:

Independent voters make the difference. There is a six percentage point gap between Obama — 44% — and Romney — 38% — among these voters. However, against Cain, 46% of independents back Obama while 36% support Cain, a difference of ten percentage points. Obama’s support among independents grows further when paired against Perry. The president leads Perry 47% to 33% among independent voters, a 14 percentage point deficit for Perry.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (FL Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Cain (FL Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry (FL Registered Voters)

Nearly Half Disapprove of President’s Job Performance

41% of registered voters in Florida approve of the job President Obama is doing in office while nearly half — 49% — disapprove. One in ten — 10% — is unsure.

By party:

Republican voters run true to party lines with 85% saying they disapprove of the president’s job performance. However, while 69% of Democratic voters say they approve, a notable 23% report they disapprove of how Mr. Obama is doing in office.
Independent voters divide. 45% disapprove while 40% approve.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Florida (FL Registered Voters)

Seven in Ten Floridians Say Nation Needs New Course…Majority Thinks Even More Bad Economic News is Ahead

70% of adults in Florida believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. One in five — 20% — thinks it is moving along the right track, and 9% are unsure.

When thinking about the U.S. economy, 56% of Florida residents say the worst is yet to come. 34% report the worst is over, and 9% are unsure. Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

Key points:

Democratic voters in Florida divide about the future of the U.S. economy. 45% believe more bad days are ahead while the same proportion — 45% — thinks the worst is over. Almost six in ten independent voters — 59% — expect tougher economic times ahead. 70% of Republican voters say the same.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (FL Adults)

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse (FL Adults)

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2011 Iowa NBC News/Marist Poll Release

To read the MSNBC story: Cain leads in S.C.; tight Fla. race with Romney

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10/11: NBC News/Marist Poll: No Clear GOP Front-Runner in Iowa

October 11, 2011 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, NBC News/Marist Poll

2 Comments

Mitt Romney and Herman Cain are in a tight battle as they vie for the support of Iowa’s likely Republican caucus-goers. And, with a notable proportion yet to choose a candidate, the race in the Hawkeye State is very competitive.

©istockphoto.com/cosmonaut

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2011 Iowa NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican caucus-goers:

23% for Mitt Romney
20% for Herman Cain
11% for Ron Paul
10% for Rick Perry
10% for Michele Bachmann
4% for Newt Gingrich
3% for Rick Santorum
1% for Jon Huntsman
1% for Gary Johnson
16% are undecided

“Right now, Iowa is shaping up as a two candidate contest. But, caucus participation is always the key in this low-turnout environment,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Watch for the strength of the candidates’ field organizations to move poll numbers and determine the eventual winner.”

How does the contest shape up when those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate are considered? 26% of likely Republican caucus-goers including those who are leaning toward a candidate support Romney. One in five — 20% — favor Cain, and 12% back Paul. Bachmann and Perry each receive 11%, 5% are behind Gingrich while Santorum garners 3%. One percent is for Huntsman while the same proportion — 1% — throws their support behind Johnson. One in ten — 10% — is still undecided.

Iowa’s pool of potential participants for Iowa’s Republican Presidential Caucus is more undecided. 23% are for Romney, 16% support Cain, and 12% choose Paul. 10% back Perry while the same proportion — 10% — favors Bachmann. Four percent rally for Gingrich, 2% support Santorum, and Huntsman and Johnson each receive 1%. A notable one in five — 20% — is undecided.

Key points:

Herman Cain — 31% — leads among likely Republican caucus-goers who support the Tea Party.
41% of likely Republican caucus-goers who strongly support the Tea Party back Herman Cain.
Nearly one in four likely Republican caucus-goers who plan to participate for the first time — 24% — support Romney. 16% are behind Cain, and 14% back Paul.
Among likely Republican caucus-goers who are Evangelical Christians, Cain receives 24% of the vote to 23% for Romney.
24% of Conservative likely Republican caucus-goers support Cain while 21% back Romney.

Table: 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (IA Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (IA Likely Voters Including Leaners)

Table: 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (IA Potential Republican Electorate)

Slightly More than Four in Ten Strongly Support Candidate

There is plenty of time for movement within this Republican field. Among likely Republican caucus-goers, only 41% report they strongly support their choice of candidate, including 48% of Tea Party supporters. 36% say they somewhat support their pick, and 20% might change their mind. Three percent are unsure.

Key points:

56% of likely Republican caucus-goers who support Cain are firmly committed to him. 29% of likely Republican caucus-goers who back Romney have a similar level of commitment.

Table: Intensity of Support (IA Likely Voters)

What Matters Most? Values and Issues Top Check List

30% of Iowa’s likely Republican caucus-goers say they want a GOP candidate who shares their values while a similar proportion — 29% — prefer one who is closest to their position on the issues. One in five — 20% — say a candidate who can defeat President Obama in the general election tops their list of factors for a candidate while 17% want someone with experience. Four percent are unsure.

Key points:

Among likely Republican caucus-goers who think a candidate’s position on the issues is the most important, Cain and Paul each receive the support of 21%. 17% of these voters are behind Romney.
24% of likely Republican caucus-goers who cite shared values as the key factor support Cain while 21% back Romney.
Looking at likely Republican caucus-goers who think a Republican candidate should be able to defeat the president, 26% rally for Cain while 24% tout Romney.
Romney receives the support of a plurality — 42% — of likely Republican caucus-goers who say experience trumps all other qualities in a Republican candidate.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (IA Likely Voters)

Competitive Race Between Obama and Romney…Obama Outpaces Perry

In a hypothetical contest between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, the two are neck and neck among registered voters in Iowa. Obama receives 43% of the vote to Romney’s 40%. 17% of registered voters are undecided. In 2008, Obama carried Iowa handily against John McCain.

When matched against Rick Perry, Obama leads 46% to 37% for Perry. Nearly one in five — 18% — are undecided.

Key points:

Independents make the difference. Romney and Obama are competitive among this group — 39% for Romney and 37% for Obama. Obama, however, leads Perry among this group with 41% supporting Obama and 34% backing Perry.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (IA Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry (IA Registered Voters)

Obama’s Approval Rating at 42% in Iowa…More Than Two-Thirds View Nation on Wrong Path

Just 42% of registered voters in Iowa approve of the job President Obama is doing in office while 47% disapprove, and 11% are unsure.

By party:

Not surprisingly, 74% of Democrats approve of the president’s job performance while 85% of Republicans disapprove. Nearly half of independents — 48% — are dissatisfied with how Mr. Obama is doing in office.

68% of adults in Iowa believe the nation is moving in the wrong direction while just 21% think it is moving on the proper path. 11% are unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Iowa (IA Registered Voters)

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (IA Adults)

To read the MSNBC story: Romney leads in Iowa and New Hampshire

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff appears on MSNBC:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Tags: Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Iowa, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul

10/11: NBC News/Marist Poll: Romney with Early Lead in NH Among Likely GOP Primary Voters

October 11, 2011 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, NBC News/Marist Poll

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2011 New Hampshire NBC News/Marist Poll Release

With the New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary just months away, Mitt Romney outpaces his GOP rivals in the Granite State.

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2011 New Hampshire NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire:

44% for Mitt Romney
13% for Herman Cain
13% for Ron Paul
6% for Rick Perry
5% for Jon Huntsman
4% for Newt Gingrich
2% for Michele Bachmann
1% for Rick Santorum
1% for Gary Johnson
11% are undecided

“It’s a fluid contest and there’s still a long way to go, but Mitt Romney is enjoying somewhat of a home field advantage in neighboring New Hampshire,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “It will take a major change to dislodge him from the top position in this first-in-the-nation primary.”

When those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate are factored into the equation, there is little change. 45% of likely Republican primary voters including leaners back Romney. 13% support Cain while the same proportion — 13% — is behind Paul. Perry garners 7% while Huntsman receives 5% of the vote, and 3% pick Bachmann. Santorum and Johnson each receives 1%, and 8% are undecided.

The potential Republican electorate in New Hampshire, that is, all Republicans and those independents who plan to vote in the primary, shows a similar story. Romney leads with 43% followed by Paul with 14% and Cain with 12%. Perry receives 7% of the potential Republican electorate while 5% are for Huntsman. Three percent back Gingrich, 2% support Bachmann, and Santorum and Johnson each receive 1% of the vote. 12% are undecided.

Key points:

Among likely Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party, 37% are behind Romney, 20% are for Cain, and 13% back Paul. Perry receives the support of 6% of these voters.
30% of likely Republican primary voters who strongly support the Tea Party back Cain. 28% are behind Romney.
A majority of likely primary voters who plan on voting in the GOP primary for the first time – 51% — favor Romney.

Table: 2012 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary (NH Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary (NH Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: 2012 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary (NH Potential Republican Electorate)

Likely Voters Lukewarm Toward Candidate of Choice

Just 38% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say they strongly support their choice of candidate, including 44% of likely voters who are Tea Party supporters. 35% report they are somewhat committed to their pick while 26% believe they might vote differently. One percent is unsure.

Key points:

46% of likely Republican primary voters who support Paul and 45% who back Romney are firmly in their respective candidate’s corner. 33% of those who are behind Cain report the same about their pick.

Table: Intensity of Support (NH Likely Voters)

Issues, Values Matter Most to Granite State Likely Republican Primary Voters

When it comes to deciding upon a candidate, 30% of likely Republican primary voters say someone who is closest to them on the issues is the key. 28% report shared values is the most important quality in a candidate. More than one in five — 22% — think the experience to govern is the quality they would most like to see while 19% emphasize someone who can defeat President Barack Obama in the general election. Two percent are unsure.

Key points:

More than six in ten likely Republican primary voters who think experience is key — 63% — support Romney. 48% of those who want a candidate who has the potential to defeat the president also throw their support behind Romney.
Although his support isn’t as strong, Romney also leads among those who view a candidate’s stand on the issues to be the most important attribute in a candidate — 38% — and among those who prefer a candidate who shares their values — 35%.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate (NH Likely Voters)

From the Primary to the General…Romney Leads Obama, but Prez tops Perry

If Romney were to face off against President Obama in next year’s general election, nearly half of registered voters in New Hampshire — 49% — say they would support Romney. Four in ten — 40% — report they would back the president, and 11% are undecided. In 2008, Obama won New Hampshire by nine percentage points over John McCain.

However, it’s a different story if Perry challenges the president. In this hypothetical contest, the president leads 46% to Perry’s 40%. 14% are undecided.

Key points:

Independent voters are the key. Romney receives the backing of 46% of independent voters. Perry, however, is supported by just 35% of these voters.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (NH Registered Voters)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry (NH Registered Voters)

Obama Approval Rating at 38%…Nearly Three in Four Say Nation is Moving in Wrong Direction

Just 38% of registered voters in New Hampshire approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office while a majority — 53% — disapproves. Nine percent are unsure.

By party:

Opinions divide along party lines with 73% of Democrats saying they approve of the president’s job performance and 86% of Republicans reporting they disapprove. 51% of independents are dissatisfied with how the president is doing in office.

Almost three quarters of New Hampshire adults — 73% — think the country is moving in the wrong direction while 19% believe it is travelling along the right path. Eight percent are unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in New Hampshire (NH Registered Voters)

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (NH Adults)

To read the MSNBC story: Romney leads in Iowa and New Hampshire

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff appears on MSNBC:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Tags: Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul

10/11: A Look at the Republican Contest for the Presidency

October 11, 2011 by John Sparks
Filed under Carl Leubsdorf, Election Interviews, Featured

The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are just months away. With so much attention given to these early contests, what are the implications for the current field of Republican candidates? The Marist Poll’s John Sparks speaks about this issue, the contest on the national level, and President Barack Obama’s re-election strategy with Marist Poll Analyst and syndicated political columnist Carl Leubsdorf who writes a weekly column for The Dallas Morning News.

Carl Leubsdorf

Listen to Part 1 of the Interview:

John Sparks
Carl, we’re three months away from the Iowa caucuses. So, where we are today with a GOP candidate?

Carl Leubsdorf
Mitt Romney is, as he’s been for some time, the frontrunner, but he’s — in one sense he’s not a very strong fron-trunner. If you look at the Republican polls, he’s polling between a quarter and a third of the Republican vote. He hasn’t gone up much. He hasn’t gone down much. He’s sort of stable there. And if you look at the more conservative candidates, and I’ll include just about everyone else in the field except Ron Paul, who I think is a special case, they’re polling about 50% of the Republican vote, but the problem is, of course, that it’s all divided up. And when Perry came into the race, it first was going to be Michele Bachmann, and she had that good debate performance in June and suddenly she started gaining, and then Perry came into the race and then everyone sort of — the conservatives sort of shifted over to him. Now he’s had some problems and some bad debates. He’s clearly not fully ready for what’s come up. He’s had the controversy over the racist word on that ranch his family leases in Texas, and he’s dropped, and Herman Cain has come up. It’s like the vote is shifting from one of them to the other while Romney is over there on the other side. So, eventually one of two things will happen. Either the conservative vote will consolidate behind someone, and Perry is still the best chance for that, or Romney might be able to win against the very divided field if they all sort of stay in and no one can get enough votes to beat him. If in Iowa, if in the Iowa caucuses, the field is divided enough, it is not impossible that Mitt Romney could win the Iowa caucuses with a rather low percentage. That’s happened before that the winning candidate didn’t have that much support, and he’s already the favorite in New Hampshire. If he won in Iowa, he’d have a good chance of winning in New Hampshire, and history tells us that Iowa/New Hampshire double winners are almost always nominated.

John Sparks
This business of Rick Perry renting the ranch with a name that’s a racial epithet, is this going to be a fatal blow to his campaign do you think?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, I don’t think it’s fatal in itself. His… and I think his bigger problems are two other things. One is that his position on immigration, which is a very volatile issue and where Republicans feel especially strongly against the flood of illegal immigrants who’ve come into this country, because of the fact that Texas passed a law granting in-state tuition to illegal aliens, and Perry has strongly supported it, that is a very unpopular position in the Republican Party. That was one of the big factors, I think, in his loss of support in the Florida Straw Poll, and the other is that he has not performed well in debates. Again, it’s not all that surprising. He came into the race late. He’s not spent a lot of time dealing with some of these national and international issues, and it’s sort of the classic situation that the successful politician on the state level, be he a senator or a governor, doesn’t realize until he gets into it how difficult running for president is. Every issue that was visited before is going to be revisited, and he’s suddenly expected to be an expert on all sorts of subject that he never thought much about.

Listen to Part 2:

John Sparks
I want ask you about Herman Cain. I saw a poll today that has Romney and Cain tied on top. Do you think that we could really see a presidential election with two African Americans facing off?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, I think we could see that some day, but I don’t think we can — likely to see it in 2012. Herman Cain is basically the “none of the above candidate.” I think that’s really for the conservatives. Now he has a lot of appeal to the conservative portion of the Republican Party, the Tea Party crowd. He’s a terrific speaker. He’s very dynamic. I remember, I have one of my sons, who does some work in politics, told me last summer, said, “The guy you really ought to watch out for is Herman Cain.” And, he does very well when he speaks before these conventions, but he’s really the “none of the above candidate.” I think no serious Republican politician or analyst expects him, in fact, to be nominated, but it’s a sign of Perry’s problems that his support suddenly shifted to Cain.

John Sparks
You and I spoke back in June about Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin. Do you believe any of these folks are still serious players?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, I think Ron Paul is a serious player to the extent that he’s always going to get his 10-to-12%. He has a very strong following. It’s interesting, I wrote a column in the Dallas Morning News about the fact that the press doesn’t take Paul seriously, and they never pay any attention, and I discussed some things that he had said at a breakfast I was at with him for reporters, and he said, you know, that some of the economic stuff he talks about, he admits it’s a little arcane and that he hasn’t explained it very well. Paul’s not going anywhere, but he’s also not going to be nominated.

Now as for the other ones, Sarah Palin, as far as we know, is not in the race and has no plans to enter, and that hasn’t changed any. Of the others, I would guess that most of them have no real chance. I don’t think Michele Bachmann has a chance. I don’t think Newt Gingrich has a chance. The one in that group who might conceivably have a chance is Rick Santorum, and I say that only because he’s come across in the debates as a pretty intelligent guy. He’s got strong views which fit with the Republican Party. He knows what he’s talking about, and he doesn’t do some of these verbal shenanigans that Gingrich does denouncing the reporters, and he served two terms in the United States Senate, so he has a background of some experience. He doesn’t have much money and he’s just sort of hanging in there, but it’s conceivable that if the Perry candidacy would not get its moorings and would not recover that he’s the one in that group who just might have an outside chance to make a strong showing in Iowa and somehow get into this race.

The question in the end is: If Perry doesn’t recover to be a strong foe for Romney, can one of these other people do it? And what happens to the many Republicans who are very cool to the Romney candidacy? Do they just accept it? We’ve sort of run out of new candidates.

Listen to Part 3:

John Sparks
Yeah, but you know, Carl, if Mitt Romney is the fallback, is that really so bad for Republicans?

Carl Leubsdorf
As a neutral analyst, I think it’s probably pretty good for Republicans. By all signs, he’s still the strongest general election candidate they have. He consistently runs better against President Obama than the other candidates. He’s a much better candidate for the party in the North than I think Perry would be, who has — beyond all the issues we’ve talked about, has — there are some — he’s so culturally Texan and Southern that that might be a handicap and appealing to moderate independent voters in Northern states. Romney, who is from Michigan and served in Massachusetts, would have some appeal there. Now he’s got some problems, most of which are getting very little attention now because of all the to-do about Christie and Herman Cain and Perry. For example, his position on immigration is more hard line than Perry’s, and that could be a problem with Hispanic voters who will be very crucial in states like Colorado and New Mexico and Nevada. He was strongly opposed to the administration’s bailout of the auto industry as he was to most of the administration’s economic policies. Well, the auto industry bailout of Chrysler and GM seems to have worked. It’s one of the success stories the administration has, and there are a lot of auto workers in Wisconsin and Ohio and in Michigan who are probably very happy about it and might not like a candidate who is against it, so there are some issues out there.

John Sparks
I saw a Rasmussen Report that said “A generic Republican wins over Obama 47 to 41 among likely voters.” Do you think that any of these Republicans could defeat the President?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, we don’t know that now. If the President’s approval level is in the low 40s and if unemployment is 9% and if more than 70% of the country think that the country is going in the wrong direction, historically it says that it’s very hard for that president to get re-elected, and that would be a real problem. However if things improve a little bit, it may really depend on which Republican runs against him. The one… the other warning signal for Obama in the current situation — current polls, is in that poll that you mentioned, Obama had 41%, but even in a number of polls that show him ahead in major states, he’s ahead like 45 to 43 or 46 to 44 or 44 to 41. An incumbent who’s polling in the mid 40s historically is going to have a lot of problems in an election because that probably means that the — all the ones he doesn’t have are going probably going to be against him in the end.

John Sparks
Do you think the main issue, though, still is going to be the pocketbook and jobs?

Carl Leubsdorf

Sure, barring something happening. I mean it’s always possible something would happen in the month before the election to take attention. Our attention spans seem to be very short on these things, and something becomes a big issue. Remember when everyone said that the BP oil spill in the Gulf would be the defining issue for Obama, well, that didn’t last very long, and although the anti-terrorism policy has been very successful in this administration because of the ability to kill major Al-Qaeda leaders starting with Osama bin Laden and a whole bunch of others. That’s not getting very much attention these days, so it’s the economy, and it’s the outlook for the economy isn’t very good. It’s as likely we’ll have a double dip recession that will have — than that we’ll have a speedy recovery.

Listen to Part 4:

John Sparks
Carl, people complain that our government is broken, needs fixing, but what about the presidential election process? It’s media-driven, and isn’t the problem that the process is more about headlines and controversy than finding an effective executive who’s right for the moment?

Carl Leubsdorf
To a considerable degree, yes, although I think that it’s interesting. I mean the cover — the news coverage is certainly that way, and it’s focused on these things. I think the voters, and especially in some of these early states who are much maligned because Iowa and New Hampshire, which come first in the process, are not typical states. They’re much wider than the country as a whole. Iowa is much older than the country as a whole. Still the people there, I’ve been in those states for a number of elections, and they take it very seriously. They listen to the candidates. They discuss issues. The press may not be — on cable television may not be discussing the issues, but when they have town meetings with candidates, that’s what they want to know is where these candidates stand on the issues, and that in many cases determines how they vote. One of the problems is — with the system is that that’s true in the early states, but when a bunch of all these other states compiled in afterwards, it’s sort of like a ping-pong effect, and what happens earlier has an enormous effect on what happens later. That’s why, for example, while Mitt Romney is certainly ahead in New Hampshire now, he has a home there and he’s campaigned there before, the day after the Iowa caucuses, those numbers in New Hampshire are all going to change. If he does well in Iowa, he ought to be able to hold that lead, but if he does very poorly there, and one of the other candidates, whether it’s Perry or Santorum or Cain, does very well, believe me, there will be a quick boom for that candidate in New Hampshire in the five or eight days between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

Listen to Part 5:

John Sparks
Carl, while the Republicans are posturing, what’s Obama’s strategy?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, for most of this year, President Obama tried — continued to try something that he talked about a lot during in the 2008 campaign and the debt-ceiling fight tried to — which was to try to be in the middle ground, to be, as the White House people used to call it, the adult in the room and to work our compromises with the Republicans in Congress on some of these economic issues and some of these budget issues. Not only did the effort fail, but the result of it is that everyone’s — the voters’ attitude towards almost everyone in politics went down. And although you’ll find many polls that show that more people favor the Obama position versus the Congressional Republican position, it hasn’t helped Obama’s approval rating, which is — continued to hover in the low 40s. Starting with Labor Day, the White House has switched course. When the president presented his jobs program, which by the way included some things that many Republicans have supported before, they show no sign of interest in supporting now, basically what President Obama was proposing was a proposal that was not likely to be approved, but which he could take the country and use as an example to say, “This is what I’m trying to get and this what the Republicans are against.” It’s quite clear that the Republicans are not going to make any major deal in part because they can’t. Even the leaders who are interested — were interested in dealing with him, such as Speaker Boehner, found themselves constrained by the more hawkish members of their constituency in the House of Representative, and even when they’ve — now both sides agreed on what the budget level should be for the year that just started, the House — some of these House Republicans still trying to cut them even more. So, I think the White House recognizes there’s not going to be a deal on jobs program, and they’re going to use this politically as much as possible. When the president was in Dallas recently, he pointed out — he sort of fingered Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader, and said, “What kind of a jobs program is he for? Why is he against everything I propose?” And it’s sort of the Harry Truman policy — procedure in 1948. And Harry Truman in the 1948 election was in deep trouble, and at the time of the Democratic Convention, there was a lot of dissatisfaction, and they all thought they were going to lose, and he electrified that convention, and the way he did it was he made a speech at 1:30 in the morning in which he called Congress back into special session and said he was going to make them consider all the things that they had refused to do. Well, they didn’t consider them anymore than they had before, but he had an issue, and he took the issue of the do nothing Congress to the country, and Obama is doing something of the same thing, and we’ll see how that works.

John Sparks
Harry Truman also surprised everyone on Election Day in 1948. Is Obama going to be a Harry Truman you think?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, one reason they surprised him is because polling wasn’t as good as it is now. With modern polling, it — you’re very rarely enormously surprised. Now the result can be slightly different from the polling. You could have one candidate ahead by two points and then the other one wins by three. In presidential campaigns, the polling has been quite good lately, but it’s — a lot is going to happen between now and November of 2012, and the situation is going to be affected by external events, going to be affected by the course of the campaign. Obama said the other day that he’s the underdog in the election, and that’s probably true, but a lot of people in Washington would not be totally shocked if in the end he gets elected. That generic Republican you talked about doesn’t exist, he’s going to have to beat a real live one, and each of them has his shortcomings.

Tags: GOP, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republicans, Rick Perry, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin

10/11: What the Numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire Mean

October 11, 2011 by Lee Miringoff
Filed under Election Blogs, Featured, Lee Miringoff

The NBC News/Marist Poll for January’s GOP New Hampshire Primary (it really won’t be in December, will it?) and the Iowa Caucus reveal some very interesting political tidbits. Sure, we’re still several months away from these much awaited events but likely New Hampshire voters and likely Iowa caucus-goers are picking sides.

No big surprise so far in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary. New Hampshire neighbor Mitt Romney has a wide lead over the GOP field. Iowa may eventually be the table setter for whom Romney has to take on in New Hampshire. But, no clear challenger has emerged at present.

The only danger sign for Romney in New Hampshire is that only 38% of likely voters are firmly committed to a candidate. 45% who back Romney are firmly committed to him. Better than the average, but not a lock.

Iowa, however, is a different ballgame, and represents more precarious terrain for Romney. Romney is well-known but finds himself in a close battle among likely Iowa caucus-goers with Herman Cain. Is Cain enjoying his 15 days of fame, or is this where the anybody-but-Romney caucus-goers coalesce?

Like New Hampshire, Hawkeye staters are still lukewarm to the field. Only 41% of likely caucus attendees are firmly committed to their choice. But, 56% of Cain’s backers are solidly behind him compared to only 29% of Romney’s supporters. That has to concern the Romney camp. Also, of the four factors motivating likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers, the good news for Romney is he has the support of the plurality of those who say experience matters most. The bad news for Romney is that values, issues, and electability count more to likely Iowa caucus-goers than the candidate’s resume and, in each of these other factors, Romney has not established an advantage.

And, then there’s the Tea Party. 50% of likely Iowa caucus attendees identify with the Tea Party. Cain leads Romney by 31% to 15% with these voters. But, among likely Iowa caucus-goers who strongly support the Tea Party, which amounts to one in five likely participants, Cain’s advantage over Romney grows to 41% to 7%. This also has to be a chief worry for team Romney. It is something we will be watching closely in future NBC News/Marist Polls.

Tags: GOP, Herman Cain, Iowa, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, primary, Republicans, tea party

10/11: The Financial Picture on the Home Front

October 11, 2011 by Barbara Carvalho
Filed under Barbara Carvalho, Featured