9/29: The Collapse of the Boston Red Sox

In the wake of one of the strangest nights in my life as a Red Sox fan, I have to ask, “Why?”

The question is not rhetorical expression of despair, as in “Why is baseball so cruel?”  It’s a real question: “Why did the Red Sox collapse?”

It’s easy to come up with quick answer.  Injuries, poor conditioning, bad free agent signings, and lack of clubhouse leadership are all popular explanations.  Many will propose a combination of causes.

And it is also likely that some people will throw up their hands and declare that the reason cannot be found, because baseball defies reason.  Such is the greatness of baseball, they might say.  I am not one of those people.  In a few weeks, though, once I have entered the acceptance phase, perhaps I will be able to appreciate that perspective.

In the FiveThirtyEight Blog at the New York Times, Nate Silver crunched the numbers to determine the likelihood of the Red Sox missing the playoffs in such agonizing style.  In a calculation that was not “mathematically rigorous,” he determined “a probability of about one chance in 278 million.”

With odds like those, Silver speculates that some other factors may be involved in the latest Sox meltdown.  I would have to agree.  In this age of advanced statistics, when sabermetricians are ensconced in baseball’s front offices and celebrated in films like “Moneyball,” we should be able to empirically investigate why one team manages to defy all expectations.

I know where to start: stress.  Though it’s not an original explanation, the idea that pressure could be the root of the Red Sox’ woes jibes with their playing environment, where the weight of sports history, regional angst, and the local media can be overwhelming.  It also might explain player underperformance — see the Yerkes-Dodson law — and the large number of broken-down bodies.

How to measure stress?  Blood pressure and cortisol levels come to mind.  Players could also fill out questionnaires assessing anxiety.  Of course, the players’ union may not approve such measures, given how drug testing has been so fiercely contested.  Also, athletes may be loath to dignify the notion that stress affects their job performance.  Nonetheless, I still think it would be interesting to compare the subjective experience of playing in Fenway Park or Yankee Stadium as opposed to say, St. Petersburg’s Tropicana Field, where the Rays might benefit from the breezy Florida vibe.

My point is not to invite pity for the Red Sox, a collection of millionaires, nor to excuse their futility.  The results would be just as interesting if there’s no demonstrable difference in stress.  Maybe there’s some other reason.  Either way, I can’t believe the answer lies in dumb luck or the resurfacing of a curse.  I can only hope that cold, hard facts might alleviate my own stress over the cruelty of the baseball gods.

9/28: Better Scores on Bloomberg’s Handling of NYC Public Schools, But…

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is receiving slightly better grades on his handling of the New York City public schools.  48% of registered voters disapprove of how the mayor is handling the issue while 41% approve.  11% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete September 28, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Although 48% of voters disapprove of how Bloomberg is dealing with the issue, fewer voters now have this view.  In August, a majority — 54% — thought the mayor was failing the city’s public schools while 36% said he was doing a good job.  One in ten — 10% — was unsure.

By borough:

• Fewer Brooklyn voters have a negative view of how Bloomberg is handling the city’s schools.  47% currently have that impression while 55% thought this way in August.
• In the Bronx, 52% disapprove of how Bloomberg is handling the public schools while 62% said the same last month.
• 42% of Manhattan voters think the mayor needs to do better when it comes to the education system.  50% shared this opinion in August.
• Half of voters in Queens and Staten Island – 50% — disapprove of the mayor’s handling of the New York City public schools while 52% said the same in NY1-Marist’s previous survey.

Table: Bloomberg on Public Schools

Table: Bloomberg on Public Schools Over Time

City’s Top Educator Still Unknown to More than One in Five Residents

New York City Schools Chancellor Dennis Walcott needs to work on his name recognition.  When it comes to his job approval rating, 31% of residents now give Walcott high marks.  Included here are 3% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 28% who say he is doing a good one.  38% report Walcott is doing a fair job in his position while 9% rate him poorly.  A notable 22% have either never heard of Walcott or are unsure how to rate him.

In NY1-Marist’s survey earlier this month, 28% of adults in New York City thought Walcott was doing an above average job, 33% gave him average grades, and 13% thought he fell short.  About one in four residents — 26% — were unsure how to rate him at that time.

There has also been little change on the rating of the public schools themselves.  43% of city dwellers describe the schools in their community as excellent — 7% — or good — 36%.  30% think they are fair, 18% give their neighborhood schools a poor rating, and 9% are unsure how to rate them.

When reported earlier this month, the same proportion of adults — 43% — thought well of their local public schools, 28% rated them as fair, and 19% thought they fell short.  10%, at the time, were unsure how to rate them.

Table: New York City Schools Chancellor Dennis Walcott Job Approval Rating

Table: New York City Public Schools Rating

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

9/28: Behind the NBC News/Marist Poll

Suffice it to say, the team at The Marist Poll is pleased to join forces with NBC News to provide independent and accurate poll data and analysis on the upcoming GOP presidential primary/caucus sweepstakes.  Through this partnership, the public will receive what Marist College students have been participating in for more than three decades, namely, a front row seat to the political process.  Marist College students learn by doing.  Now, we intend to open up the classroom to the public and demystify the process of conducting public opinion polls.

Beyond the horse race numbers of who is ahead and who is behind, we hope to provide insight into the dynamics of the race… which issues are driving the electorate, what kind of influence do Tea Party supporters have on the outcome, how does the size and composition of turnout alter each candidate’s chances?  In so doing, the public will be better positioned to understand what campaign consultants are looking at in their private polls, the ones they use to devise their strategies.

The NBC News/Marist Poll is all about disclosure and transparency.   There are polls, and then there are polls.  Some use “live” interviewers and scientific methods to select a random sample, including calling cell phone only households.  Some do not.  Some provide the public with their question wording and the order in which questions are asked.  Some do not.  Some use well trained,  quality interviewers.  Some do not.  Some disclose how they define the all important “likely” voter.  Some do not.

In essence, sometimes the public is in on the secret of how poll numbers are derived.  But, unfortunately, often the public is not.  Instead, citizens are bombarded by polls with little guide as to how the sausage is made.  No longer.  In this partnership, to paraphrase Chuck Todd, we will bring people into the polling process and “kick the tires.”

We will provide information about how samples are selected, why cell phone only households are called, how likely voters are identified, what role question wording and question order play in the survey process, what makes for good quality interviewing, and how we go about analyzing the poll results.

We fully understand that public opinion polls are graded by whether they pick the right winner and by the right margin.  But, when it comes to prediction, pre-primary/caucus polling is a particularly perilous endeavor.  Our NBC News/Marist Polls will be conducted prior to the casting of votes, and, as such, are aiming at a moving target.  With primary turnout much lower than in a general election and with an electorate which is typically late in deciding whether to vote or whom to support, things can be pretty volatile.  Not surprisingly, a great deal can happen from the time a poll is conducted to primary day.

Having said this, picking the winner (by the correct margin) and understanding what is driving the electorate remains the goal.  But, when it comes to prediction, let’s not ask psephologists to accomplish what we don’t expect from seismologists or demand from  meteorologists.  Translation: predicting public opinion may be no more dependable than timing an earthquake or forecasting the weather.  Nonetheless, we will communicate what works and what doesn’t.  Hopefully, we will all learn from the experience.

9/27: Bounce in Bloomberg’s Approval Rating

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job approval rating may be on an upswing.  According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 46% of registered voters citywide think Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Included here are 10% who report he is doing an excellent job and 36% who say he is doing a good one.  More than one-third of voters — 35% — rate the mayor’s job performance as fair while 18% believe he is performing poorly.  Two percent are unsure.

Click Here for Complete September 27, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Bloomberg’s approval rating has been hovering around 40% since March.  When NY1-Marist last reported this question in early August, 39% gave Bloomberg high marks, 35% thought he was doing a fair job, and 23% said his performance was subpar.  Four percent, at that time, were unsure.

“For Mayor Bloomberg, the change is in his overall approval rating, not in his handling of the city budget, the direction of the city, or how New Yorkers think they will remember his years in office,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The mayor’s role in the observance of the 10th anniversary of 9/11 and his handling of Hurricane Irene may be responsible for the uptick in his standing.”

By party:

• There has been an increase in the proportion of Republican voters who approve of Bloomberg’s job performance.  Nearly half — 48% — give him high marks while 39% did so in August.
• Among Democrats, 46% approve of how Bloomberg is doing in office, up from 37% last month.
• 42% of non-enrolled voters citywide applaud Bloomberg’s job performance while 40% did so in NY1-Marist’s previous survey.

By Borough:

• Bloomberg enjoys a bump in his approval rating in all of the boroughs except for Manhattan.

o   There has been a 17 percentage point increase in the proportion of Bronx voters who think the mayor is doing well in office.  48% give Bloomberg above average marks now while 31% did so in August.

o   In Queens and Staten Island, Mayor Bloomberg’s approval rating stands at 47%, a 10 percentage point increase from last month when 37% of these voters shared this view.

o   38% of voters in Brooklyn think Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This an increase of six percentage points from NY1-Marist’s previous poll when 32% thought this way.

o   In Manhattan, half of voters — 50% — give the mayor kudos while 55% did the same last month.

Voters citywide divide about Mayor Bloomberg’s handling of the city’s budget.  46% approve of his performance on this issue while 46% disapprove.  Eight percent are unsure.  This is little changed from August when 43% gave the mayor a thumbs-up, 46% disapproved of how he is dealing with the budget, and 11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Table: Bloomberg on the City’s Budget

Table: Bloomberg on the City’s Budget Over Time

Majority Views City as Moving in the Wrong Direction

52% of registered voters think New York City needs its course corrected while 42% say it is moving in the right direction.  Six percent are unsure.  Little has changed on this question since NY1-Marist last reported it in August.  At that time, 51% believed the city was moving in the wrong direction, 40% said it was proceeding in the right one, and 9%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

Bloomberg’s Legacy Status Quo

How will Mayor Michael Bloomberg be remembered once his third term ends?  41% of registered voters say he will be remembered in a positive light.  This includes 9% who think he will be thought of as one of the city’s best mayors and 32% who say he will be recalled as an above average one.  41% believe his legacy will be average while 12% report he will be considered a below average mayor, and 6% say he will be remembered as one of the worst mayors in New York City history.

Voters’ views toward the mayor’s legacy are consistent.  In August, 38% said Bloomberg would be fondly recalled as either one of the Big Apple’s best mayors or an above average one.  39% believed he wouldn’t be thought of as anything special, 12% reported he would be recalled as a below average mayor, and 11% said he will be remembered as one of the worst.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

9/27: No Clear NFL Surprise

With the NFL season underway, is there a sleeper team in the mix?  According to this Marist Poll, there’s no clear surprise among football fans nationally.  Nine percent of fans think the Detroit Lions will be the biggest surprise this season, 6% believe the Dallas Cowboys will come out of nowhere while the same proportion — 6% — say the Philadelphia Eagles will be this year’s upset team.  The Green Bay Packers are perceived by 5% to charge the field and shock football fans while 4% say the Oakland Raiders will split the uprights as the NFL’s surprise of the season.  A majority — 55% — believe another team will shock fans and commentators alike, and 15% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete September 27, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

The proportion of football fans remains consistent.  67% of adults nationally report they watch football at least a little.  Included here are 22% who tune into the sport a great deal, 17% who follow it a good amount, and 28% who watch it a little.  34% of U.S. residents, however, do not follow the sport at all.

In November 2010, 68% followed professional football at least a little.  Included here are 18% who admitted to being an armchair quarterback most of the time, 15% who caught a good amount of football fever, and 35% reported they followed a little of the action on the gridiron.  32%, at that time, said they had no interest in the sport.

Table: NFL Surprise of 2011-2012 Season

Table: Professional Football Fans

Marist Poll Methodology

9/27: Baseball Fans in New York State of Mind: Yankees Seen as World Series Favorites

Major League Baseball’s post-season begins this week.  So, who do baseball fans nationally favor to win the World Series?  More than one in five — 22% — think the New York Yankees will round the bases into their 28^th World Series Championship, 16% say the Philadelphia Phillies will take the win, and only 6% believe the Boston Red Sox will slide into victory.  Last year’s World Series champions, the San Francisco Giants, are favored to repeat by just 3% of baseball fans.  The same proportion — 3% — thinks the Texas Rangers, the Atlanta Braves, or the Detroit Tigers will steal the title.  17% believe another team entirely will take the title, and 26% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete September 27, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

While more baseball fans sit behind the Yankees dugout, their arch rivals, the Boston Red Sox, have fallen from grace in the eyes of baseball fans.  When Marist last reported this question in July, 17% favored the Bronx Bombers while 15% boasted the Red Sox.  10% touted the Phillies while 4% cheered on the Giants.  Now out of the top five, 4% thought the St. Louis Cardinals would go all the way.  23%, then, said another team would be crowned the champions of baseball while 27% were unsure.

Die-hard baseball fans are few and far between.  In fact, a majority of adults nationally — 53% — do not watch baseball at all while 30% tune in a little.  Only 8% catch America’s pastime a good amount while 9% follow baseball a great deal.

Little has changed on this question since Marist’s July survey.  At that time, 52% didn’t follow baseball at all, 30% had a little interest in the game, and 9% said they followed the sport a good amount.  One in ten — 10% — proclaimed they were avid followers.

Table: Team Favored to Win the World Series

Table: Baseball Fans

Marist Poll Methodology

9/26: 2013 NYC Mayoral Field Competitive…Quinn, Markowitz Lead the Pack

According to this NY1-Marist Poll, if the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn would receive 20% of the vote while 16% would cast their ballot for Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz. Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson is within striking distance with the support of 12% of Democrats.  In this hypothetical contest, 10% are behind current Comptroller John Liu, 7% back Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer takes 6% of the vote.  Publisher Tom Allon garners just 2%, and one in four Democrats — 25% — are undecided.

Click Here for Complete September 26, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“With twenty-five percent of Democrats undecided and the field lacking a dominant top tier of candidates, this is a campaign story still to be told,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Those looking to succeed Mayor Bloomberg might welcome his support.  But, if the numbers hold, don’t expect anyone to make his endorsement the centerpiece of their campaign.”

In NY1-Marist’s July survey, 16% of Democratic voters supported Quinn, 15% backed Thompson, and 14% were for Markowitz.  Nine percent, at the time, were behind Liu, 7% said they would vote for de Blasio, and 6% thought they would cast their ballot for Stringer.  Only 1% backed Allon, and 32% were undecided.

If Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz decides not to run for the office, Quinn and Thompson are neck and neck.  Without Markowitz, 22% of Democrats are for Quinn followed closely by Thompson with 18%.  John Liu receives 12%, Bill de Blasio nets 10%, and Scott Stringer garners 7% of the vote.  Two percent back Tom Allon, and 28% are undecided.

What kind of influence could an endorsement by Mayor Michael Bloomberg have on a mayoral candidate?  Nearly half of registered voters in New York City consider it the kiss of death.  48% report an endorsement by Bloomberg would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, 30% think it would make them more likely to vote for one, and 15% say it makes no difference to their vote.  Only 8% are unsure.

Nearly half of Democratic voters citywide — 47% — report an endorsement by Bloomberg would make them less likely to vote for a candidate.  29% say it would make them more likely to support a candidate, and 17% think it would not make a difference.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (without Marty Markowitz)

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

9/22: Voters Divide About Obama’s Handling of the War in Afghanistan

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has hit a new low, and voters remain dissatisfied with his handling of the economy.  And, now, there is also increased dissatisfaction with how the president is handling the war in Afghanistan.

Click Here for Complete September 22, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this Marist Poll, 48% of registered voters nationally disapprove of how the president is dealing with the situation in Afghanistan while 44% approve.  Seven percent are unsure.

When Marist last reported this question in June, a majority of registered voters — 53% — approved of how Mr. Obama was handling the conflict while 39% disapproved.  Eight percent, at the time, were unsure.

The change has occurred among Republican and independent voters.

By party:

• Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters — 65% — and a majority of independents — 56% — disapprove of the way the president is dealing with the war in Afghanistan.  In June, those proportions were 53%, and 41%, respectively.
• Among Democratic voters, 67% approve of how the President Obama is handling the situation while a similar proportion — 70% — did so a few months ago.

Voters also divide about how the President is handling the situation in Libya.  42% approve of the way he is dealing with it, and 42% disapprove.  16% are unsure.  In June, 44% applauded the president on the issue while 40% thought his approach was flawed.  16% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Handling the War in Afghanistan

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Situation in Libya

Marist Poll Methodology

9/22: NBC News/Marist Poll

NBC News and Marist College are pleased to announce the launch of a polling partnership, the NBC News/Marist Poll, for the 2012 Republican primary season.

The NBC News/Marist Poll will gauge public opinion throughout this fall in key Republican primary and caucus states and track the campaign for the Republican nomination next spring.

“With the diversity of states in play in this year’s Republican race, let alone for the general election, it’s important for NBC News to have a partner who will bring academic and statistical rigor to the difficult task of state polling. Marist is that partner,” says Chuck Todd, NBC News Political Director and Chief White House Correspondent.

“What better way could an educational institution inform the public on the critical issues of the day,” says Marist College President Dennis J. Murray. “The unprecedented relationship between NBC News and The Marist Poll aims to do just that.”

The Marist Poll is a survey research center at Marist College in Poughkeepsie, New York.  As an academic polling institute, The Marist Poll informs Marist students and the public about its poll results, but most importantly, it brings to light survey methods and the behind the scenes of polling.

“As a polling institute, we adhere to a strict standard of transparency, and we look forward to letting the public in on how we come to our findings,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Poll.  ”We are very excited to work with the political team at NBC News and to provide our students and the public with a front row seat to the political dialogue of the day.”

Contact:

Mary E. Azzoli
Marist College, 845.575.5050
Mary.Azzoli@marist.edu

Erika Masonhall
NBC News, 212-664-3230
Erika.Masonhall@nbcuni.com

9/21: Nearly Half Plan to Vote Against Obama, But Is There a Winner in the GOP Field?

President Barack Obama has his work cut out for him on the campaign trail.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, 49% of registered voters nationally say they definitely plan to vote against the president in next year’s election.  36% say they will cast their ballot for Mr. Obama, and 15% are unsure.  This is the highest proportion of voters since November 2010 who say they don’t think they will back the president in his re-election bid.  At that time, 48% said they would definitely vote against him.

Click Here for Complete September 21, 2011 USA McClatchy Poll Release and Tables

When McClatchy-Marist previously reported this question in August, 40% thought they would definitely vote against President Obama, 40% believed they would definitely vote for him, and a notable one in five — 20% — were unsure.

“On the one hand, President Obama’s re-election numbers are very low.  On the other hand, no GOP potential opponent has stepped up to the plate and demonstrated sufficient electoral power to beat him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

By party:

• A majority of independent voters — 53% — say they will not support the president, 28% believe they will, and 20% are unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of independents who say they definitely will not vote for Mr. Obama.  In August, those proportions stood at 40%, 35%, and 25%, respectively.
• Most Republicans — 89% — plan to back someone else.  Last month, 77% reported the same.
• Little has changed among Democrats.  70% say they will cast their ballot for the president while 69% shared these views in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.

There has also been an increase in the proportion of registered voters who believe, regardless of who they support, the Republican challenger will defeat President Obama in next year’s election.  A majority of the national electorate — 52% — says the GOP candidate will be victorious, 38% believe the president will be re-elected, and one in ten — 10% — is undecided.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in June, voters divided.  44% said Mr. Obama will be re-elected to another four years in office while 42% reported the Republican candidate will claim the White House.  15%, at that time, were undecided.

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012 (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Presidential Prediction

Guiliani Strongest GOPer Against Obama

Despite weak re-election numbers, President Obama either leads or is competitive with most of his Republican challengers.  There is one exception, unannounced candidate former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

• Giuliani receives 49% to Obama’s 42% among registered voters.  Nine percent are undecided.  In August, 48% backed the president, 43% supported Giuliani, and 9% were undecided.

Key points:

o   A slim majority of independent voters — 51% — supports Giuliani while only 37% throw their support behind Obama.  13% are undecided.

• President Obama is neck and neck with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  46% say they are for Obama while 44% report they back Romney.  One in ten — 10% — is undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 46% supported Obama, 41% tossed their support behind Romney, and 13%, at the time, were undecided.

Key points:

o   Among independent voters, 44% are behind Romney, 40% back the president, and 16% are undecided.  In August, the president received the support of 41% of independents to Romney’s 35%.  23% were undecided.

• When up against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, 49% of voters say they are for Obama while 44% rally for the unannounced Palin.  Six percent are undecided.  However, this is the first time that Obama has fallen below 50% in this hypothetical scenario.  And, the president has lost ground since the last time McClatchy-Marist reported this question.  In August, a majority — 56% — tossed their support behind Obama while 35% backed Palin.  Nine percent, at the time, were undecided.

Key points:

o   Among independent voters, 47% tout Palin while 43% are behind Obama.  In August, 48% backed the president while 42% were for Palin.

o   Palin has gained some support within her Republican base.  81% now say they are for Palin compared with 60% last month.

o   87% of voters who support the Tea Party rally behind Palin compared with 70% last month.

• Obama’s lead over Texas Governor Rick Perry has shrunk.  50% of voters support Obama while 41% are for Perry, a nine percentage point lead for the president.  Nine percent are undecided.  Last month, Obama outpaced Perry by 19 percentage points, 52% to 33%.  14% were undecided.

Key points:

o   Perry has made some in-roads with independent voters.  They now divide.  43% support Obama, and 43% are behind Perry.  13% are undecided.  In August, 49% of independents backed Obama and 30% supported Perry.  22% were undecided.

o   Perry has also gained the support of more Republicans.  87% now support him compared with 74% last month.

o   84% of Tea Party supporters are for Perry.  69% had this view in August.

• 53% of voters support Obama while 40% are for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.  Seven percent are undecided.  Similar proportions shared these views in August when Obama garnered the support of 52%.  35% were for Bachmann, and 13% were undecided.

Key points:

o   Bachmann has gained some ground within her Republican base.  86% now back her while 73% did so in August.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann (Over Time)

Perry Leads Republican Contenders

In the quest for the Republican nomination, Texas Governor Rick Perry has an eight percentage point advantage over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

• 30% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
• 22% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• 12% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
• 7% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
• 6% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
• 5% for businessman Herman Cain
• 2% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
• 1% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
• 15% are undecided

But, how firmly are Republicans and Republican leaning independents in their candidates’ camp?  Three in ten — 30% — report they strongly support their choice of candidate, nearly four in ten — 39% — say they somewhat support their candidate, and 31% think they might vote differently.

The top two candidates — Rick Perry and Mitt Romney — share similar intensity of support from their backers.  30% of GOP voters who back Perry firmly support him while 26% of those who are behind Romney say the same.

The story changes for the Republican field when two prominent Republicans come into play.  If Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin were to announce their candidacies, here is how the contest stands among Republicans and Republican leaning independents:

• 20% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
• 14% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
• 13% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• 13% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
• 6% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
• 6% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
• 6% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
• 4% for businessman Herman Cain
• 2% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
• 2% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
• 14% are undecided

However, 72% of Republicans and Republican leaning independent voters do not want Palin to seek the office, 24% do, and 4% are unsure.

Giuliani fares somewhat better, but nearly six in ten — 58% — do not want him to enter the race either.  32% would like to see him step back onto the national stage, and 10% are unsure.

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Table: Intensity of Support

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary (with Giuliani and Palin)

Table: Sarah Palin 2012 Presidential Run

Table: Rudy Giuliani 2012 Presidential Run

Shared Values Tops List of Candidates’ Qualities

More than one-third of Republicans and Republican leaning independents — 35% — say it’s most important that a Republican presidential candidate share their values.  26% want a candidate who has the experience to govern, and 20% prefer a candidate who is closest to them on the issues.  The ability to defeat President Obama is most important to 17%, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Presidential Candidate

Candidates’ Tea Party Backing Not Top of Mind for Seven in Ten Republicans

How important is it that a Republican candidate has the support of the Tea Party?  70% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents report it makes no difference to their vote.  More than one in five — 22% — say it makes them more likely to vote for a candidate while only 8% think it makes them less likely to vote for a candidate.

The proportion of registered voters who are Tea Party supporters has changed little.  27% either strongly support or support the Tea Party while 64% do not.  Among those that support the Tea Party, 8% strongly support the movement, and 19% support it.  Nine percent are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 29% supported the Tea Party movement, 61% did not, and 9% were unsure.

Table: Importance of Tea Party Backing of Republican Presidential Candidate

Table: Tea Party Supporters

Table: Tea Party Supporters Over Time

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

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