8/16: Nearly Half of Residents Near Indian Point Want to Keep Power Plant Open

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo vows to shut down the Indian Point nuclear power plant.  However, according to this NY1/YNN-Marist Poll, nearly half of residents who live near the plant — 49% — oppose closing it.  Four in ten — 40% — favor shutting it down, and 11% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete August 16^th, 2011 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“After all these years, this remains a highly charged issue,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Governor Cuomo still has some convincing to do.”

Key points:

• Among registered voters who live near Indian Point, 48% want to keep the power plant open while 42% want it shut down.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.
• Nearly six in ten residents in communities near Indian Point who earn less than $50,000 annually — 59% — are more likely to support keeping the plant operational than those who earn more than $50,000 annually — 43%.
• There are also age differences.  55% of those younger than 45 years old in this region want to keep Indian Point open.  44% of those over 45 agree.

The use of nuclear power as an energy source is supported, overall, by a slim majority of New Yorkers.  52% of adults statewide are proponents of doing so while 36% oppose it.  11% are unsure.

Key points:

• Among registered voters, 55% support nuclear power, 34% oppose it, and 11% are unsure.
• While 70% of Republican voters statewide approve of the use of nuclear power, 53% of non-enrolled voters and 47% of Democrats have this view.
• Majorities of residents who live upstate — 58% — and in the suburbs of New York City — 56% — support using nuclear power as an energy source.  This compares with 46% of adults in New York City.
• Older New Yorkers are more likely to support nuclear power than younger residents.  55% of those 45 and older share have this view compared with 48% of those who are younger.
• There are gender differences on this question.  More than six in ten men — 62% — think nuclear power is a good energy source.  44% of women agree.

Table: Favor or Oppose Closing Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant (Adults Near Indian Point)

Table: Favor or Oppose Closing Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant (Registered Voters Near Indian Point)

Table: Support or Oppose Nuclear Power as Energy Source (NYS Adults)

Table: Support or Oppose Nuclear Power as Energy Source (Registered Voters)

Nuclear Concerns: Slim Majority Fear Nuclear Emergency

In March, Japan suffered a catastrophic nuclear disaster.  What are the chances that such an emergency could occur in New York State?  51% of adults statewide say it’s either very likely or likely.  This includes 16% who believe a nuclear emergency is very likely and 35% who think it is likely.  32% say it’s not very likely to happen in New York while 12% don’t think such a nuclear emergency will happen at all.  Five percent are unsure.

Key points:

• Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  Half — 50% — report a nuclear disaster is either very likely or likely to happen.  34% say it’s not very likely to occur while 12% think the possibility of a nuclear emergency in New York is not likely at all.  Four percent are unsure.
• 57% of New Yorkers who are 45 or older think there is a greater likelihood of a nuclear emergency in the state compared with 44% of those who are younger than 45 years old.
• There are also gender differences.  Six in ten women — 60% — think there is a greater possibility of a nuclear disaster in New York than men — 42%.

If such an incident were to occur, 51% of New York State residents believe it would be caused by an accident at a nuclear power plant.  Nearly four in ten — 39% — would attribute it to a terror attack, and 11% are unsure.

Key points:

• Among registered voters statewide, 52% would cite an accident as the cause of a nuclear emergency while 38% would blame a terror attack, and 10% are unsure.
• Majorities of non-enrolled voters — 56% — and Democratic voters — 54% — think an accident would be behind a nuclear emergency.  Republican voters divide.  48% think it would happen due to an accident while 46% would suspect a terror attack.
• More than six in ten upstate residents — 62% — and a plurality of those who live in the suburbs of New York City — 47% — would blame an accident for a nuclear disaster.  Adults in New York City divide.  43% would call such an incident an accident while 41% would say it is an act of terror.

Table: Possibility of Nuclear Power Plant Emergency (NYS Adults)

Table: Possibility of Nuclear Power Plant Emergency (Registered Voters)

Table: Cause of Hypothetical NY Nuclear Emergency (NYS Adults)

Table: Cause of Hypothetical NY Nuclear Emergency (Registered Voters)

Hydrofracking Draws Little Consensus Among New Yorkers

There is a difference of opinion among New Yorkers on the issue of hydrofracking.  37% oppose splitting underground rock to remove natural gas while 32% support it.  A notable 31% are unsure.

When NY1/YNN-Marist last asked this question in May, 41% were against hydrofracking, 38% favored it, and 21% were unsure.

Key points:

• 37% of registered voters in New York oppose hydrofracking, 33% support it, and three in ten — 30% — are unsure.
• Republicans — 43% — are more likely to support hydrofracking than non-enrolled voters — 37% — and Democrats — 28%.

The ban on drilling for natural gas may be lifted in New York State.  While parks, wildlife preserves, and sources of drinking water would not be touched, private property would be fair game.  Upstate, 54% of residents don’t want this type of drilling to take place in their town or city.

Two key arguments for hydrofracking are that it makes us independent from foreign oil and it creates jobs.  But, opponents point to keeping water supplies safe and protecting the environment.  Where do New Yorkers stand?

• Nearly six in ten New Yorkers — 59% — believe preserving the water supply and environment is more important than making us independent from foreign oil.  About one-third — 33% — believe the opposite is true, and 7% are unsure.  In May, 56%, 39%, and 5%, respectively, held these views.

o   Similar proportions of registered voters believe this to be the case.  59% of voters statewide think preserving the water supply should be the priority, 35% state oil independence is more important, and 6% are unsure.  In NY1/YNN-Marist Poll’s previous survey, 57%, 39%, and 5%, respectively, had these opinions.

• When weighed against job creation, 51% of adults statewide think preserving the water supply is the strongest argument while 41% believe creating jobs dominates the debate.  Eight percent are unsure.  These views are similar to those expressed in May.  At that time, 52% cited the water supply, 41% reported job creation, and 6% were unsure.

o   There has been a change among registered voters statewide.  Only half — 50% — now believe the argument for protecting the environment outweighs that for job creation — 44%.  6% are unsure.  This compares with 55%, 39%, and 6%, respectively, who held these views in May.

o   By party, there has been a decrease in the proportions of Democrats — 51% — who think the preservation of the water supply is the most compelling argument.  In May, 59% of Democrats had this opinion.  Looking at Republican voters, 44% believe the environment trumps job creation.  This compares with 47% who held this view in May.  Among non-enrolled voters, 56% choose preserving the water supply compared with 58% a few months ago.

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (NYS Adults)

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Registered Voters)

Table: Ban on Drilling for Natural Gas in Town or City (Adults in Upstate NY)

Table: Ban on Drilling for Natural Gas in Town or City (Registered Voters in Upstate NY)

Table: Oil Independence vs. Preserving the Water Supply (NYS Adults)

Table: Oil Independence vs. Preserving the Water Supply (Registered Voters)

Table: Creating Jobs vs. Preserving the Water Supply (NYS Adults)

Table: Creating Jobs vs. Preserving the Water Supply (Registered Voters)

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology

8/12: Americans Dismal About Economy’s Future…Obama Not Faulted for Financial Picture

Americans have become significantly more pessimistic about the U.S. economy.  According to this national McClatchy-Marist Poll, nearly seven in ten adults nationwide — 68% — believe the worst of the country’s economic conditions are yet to come.  27% say the worst is behind us, and 6% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete August 12^th, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

There has been a 15 percentage point increase in the proportion of Americans who believe there is more bad economic news in the country’s future.  In McClatchy-Marist’s July survey, 53% believed this to be true while 42% reported the worst of the nation’s economic problems were behind us.  Six percent, at the time, were unsure.

Key points:

• Among registered voters, about two-thirds — 66% — have a negative view of the future of the economy.  28% have a more positive outlook, and 5% are unsure.
• Republican voters — 75% — and independent voters — 71% — think the U.S. economy will get worse.  This compares with 57% of Democrats.
• Regardless of region, there is an increased sense of pessimism.  However, the largest change has occurred in those living in the West.  68% of these Americans now say the worst is yet to come, a 23 percentage point change from the 45% who reported the same last month.  72% of those in the South, 65% of residents in the Midwest, and 62% of Americans in the Northeast think the economy will decline.  In July, those proportions stood at 58%, 59%, and 45%, respectively.

However, nearly six in ten registered voters — 59% — still don’t blame President Barack Obama for the nation’s current economic conditions.  About one-third — 33% — believe today’s tentative economic conditions are a result of the president’s policies, and 8% are unsure.

In McClatchy-Marist’s June survey, 61% thought the president inherited the country’s economic conditions, and 31% said they stemmed from the president’s initiatives.  Nine percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: U.S. Economy – Will It Get Worse?

Table: U.S. Economy – Will It Get Worse? (Over Time)

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited Over Time

Few Expect Improvements in Finances…Many Think Future Gen’s Will Be Worse Off

Only one in four Americans — 25% — believe their personal family finances will get better in the coming year while 26% say they will get worse.  Nearly half — 49% — report they will stay about the same.  Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist’s July survey when 28% said their financial picture would improve, 20% said it would get worse, and 52% thought it would remain the same.

And, many Americans are pessimistic about the financial situation of future generations.  61% say they will be worse off while 16% believe they will be better off.  23% think they will have a similar financial situation to people today.

Key points:

• Registered voters have similar views.  64% say future generations will be worse off, 14% think they will be better off, and 23% think they will be about the same as the present.
• Republican voters — 73% — and independent voters — 67% — are more likely to be pessimistic about the finances of future generations than Democrats — 54%.
• While 68% of those 60 or older, 63% of Americans 45 to 59, and 63% of residents 30 to 44 years old expect tougher times for generations to come, only 42% of those under 30 say the same.

Table: Your Personal Family Finances – Better, Worse, or the Same?

Table: Your Personal Family Finances – Better, Worse, or the Same? (Over Time)

Table: Financial Expectations for Future Generations

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

8/12: Coming to the Neighborhood? More than Six in Ten Support Wal-mart in Community

The possibility of Wal-mart coming to New York City has stirred debate.  Do residents citywide want the store to lay down roots in the five boroughs?  More than six in ten — 64% — support a Wal-mart in their neighborhood while 31% oppose such a move.  Five percent are unsure.

Click Here for Complete August 12^th, 2011 NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Although a majority of Manhattan residents would welcome the arrival of a Wal-mart, residents in this borough are less likely than those in the other boroughs to do so.  56% of adults in Manhattan support opening the store in their community.  This compares with 73% in the Bronx, 65% in Brooklyn, and 64% in Queens and Staten Island.

Women — 68% — are slightly more likely than men — 60% — to support opening a Wal-mart in their area.

While nearly three in four residents citywide — 74% — are at least likely to shop at a Wal-mart located in their community, a plurality of residents — 45% — don’t think the opening of the store makes any difference when it comes to the quality of their neighborhood.

Other highlights include:

• Of those who would shop at a Wal-mart in their area, 41% would be very likely to do so, and 33% would be likely to do so.  12% of New York City adults would not be very likely to shop at such a store, and 14% would not be likely at all.

o   Regionally, 80% of Bronx residents, 78% of Brooklyn adults, and 76% of those in Queens and Staten Island say they would shop in a local Wal-mart.  This compares with 63% of Manhattan residents.

• Looking at the impact of a Wal-mart in their area, 45% of New Yorkers say it would not make a difference to their neighborhood, 30% believe it would make it better, and 25% say it would make it worse.

o   Brooklyn residents — 39% — are more likely to say Wal-mart would have a positive impact on their neighborhood compared with those in the Bronx — 33% — residents in Queens and Staten Island — 26% — and adults living in Manhattan — 21%.

o   35% of those under the age of 45 believe Wal-mart would make their neighborhood better while 26% of those 45 and older agree.

Table: Support or Oppose Wal-mart in Neighborhood

Table: Likelihood of Shopping in Neighborhood Wal-mart

Table: Impact of Wal-mart in Neighborhood

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

8/11: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Are Americans optimistic about the future of the economy?  Do registered voters blame President Barack Obama for the nation’s current economic circumstances?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

8/11: September 11th Ten Years Later: Concerns About Another Terrorist Attack at New Low

New York City and the rest of the nation will solemnly mark the tenth anniversary of the September 11^th terrorist attacks one month from today.  Are residents in New York City concerned about another attack?  Worry about another assault in the city is at its lowest point since the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center.

Click Here for Complete August 11^th, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 49% of New York City residents express concern about another terrorist attack.  Included here are 17% who are very worried and 32% who are worried.  34%, however, are not too worried, and 17% are not worried at all.

“Although many New Yorkers remain on guard concerning another terrorist attack, others think the threat has passed,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “There has also been significant healing in the city.  A majority of New Yorkers say their lives have returned to normal.”

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in May soon after the death of Osama Bin Laden, 51% expressed concern while nearly three in ten — 29% — weren’t too worried, and 17% said they weren’t anxious at all.

More residents in the Bronx — 60% — are concerned than are those in the other boroughs.  49% of residents in Queens and Staten Island, 47% of those in Brooklyn, and 45% of those in Manhattan are either very worried or worried about another terrorist attack in New York City.

Women — 54% — and those 45 and older — 53% — have a heightened sense of anxiety compared with men — 43% — and those who are younger — 46%.

Table: Concern About Another Terrorist Attack

Table: Concern About Another Terrorist Attack Over Time

Daily Life Back to Normal for Majority … Recovery Still Needed for City

53% of adults in New York City say their lives have returned to normal since the terror attacks nearly ten years ago.  11% expect their lives to eventually return to normal while 36% say their lives will never be the same.

There has been little change on this question since May when 54% said their lives were back on track, one in ten — 10% — thought they would eventually recover, and 35% believed their lives would never be the same.  However, many New York City residents have healed since the years immediately following the attacks.  In September 2004, only 24% reported their lives had returned to normal.  17% thought they would eventually recover while nearly six in ten — 59% — said their lives would never be the same.

Looking at what residents think of New York City itself, 47% of residents say the city has not fully recovered since the September 11^th attacks.  28%, though, believe it is just as good as it was before the attacks while 26% report the city is even better.

In NY1-Marist’s previous survey, 48% said the city still needed healing, 28% believed New York City was back on par, and one in four — 25% — thought it was even better. Here, too, perceptions have improved since September 2004.  At that time, a majority — 54% — reported New York City had not fully recovered.  30%, at that time, believed it was just as good, and 16% said it was better than it had been before the attacks.

Table: Daily Life Since 9/11

Table: Daily Life Since 9/11 (Over Time)

Table: Status of NYC Since 9/11

Table: Status of NYC Since 9/11 (Over Time)

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

8/10: Majority Supports Legalization of Same-Sex Marriage…63% Want Law to Remain in Place

Same-sex marriage has been legal in New York State for just a couple of weeks, but do New York State residents support the law?  According to this NY1/YNN-Marist Poll, a majority of adults in New York favor the law, and more than six in ten do not want the legislation to be overturned.

Click Here for Complete August 10^th, 2011 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Key findings include:

• • 55% of New York State adults support the legalization of same-sex marriage.  36% oppose it, and 9% are unsure.
• Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  55% of voters statewide favor same-sex marriage in New York State while 37% are against it.  Eight percent are unsure.

o   Looking at party, about two-thirds of Democratic voters — 66% — support the law.  And while a majority of Republican voters — 52% — oppose the law, 39% support it.  Nearly six in ten non-enrolled voters — 58% — applaud the law.

• There are age differences.  Many New Yorkers under the age of 45 — 62% — back the legislation while just half of those 45 and older — 50% — say the same.
• When it comes to the suit filed to overturn the law, 63% of adults statewide don’t want the law to be overturned.  However, 32% do, and 5% are unsure.
• The same proportions of registered voters — 63%, 32%, and 5%, respectively — share these views.

o   72% of Democratic voters and 66% of non-enrolled voters statewide want the law to remain in effect.  Republican voters divide.  48% of Republicans think it should be overturned while 47% believe it should stay in place.

• Nearly seven in ten suburban residents — 69% — and about two-thirds of those upstate — 66% — don’t want the law overturned.  57% of New York City adults agree.
• Looking at age, 70% of those younger than 45 want the same-sex marriage law in effect while 59% of those 45 and older say the same.

Table: The Legalization of Same-Sex Marriage in New York State

Table: The Legalization of Same-Sex Marriage in New York State (Registered Voters)

Table: The Reversal of the Law Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage in New York State

Table: The Reversal of the Law Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage in New York State (Registered Voters)

Political Impact: Plurality More Likely to Vote for State Senator Who Supported Law

44% of registered voters in New York report they are more likely to vote for a state senator who voted to pass the same-sex marriage law.  Three in ten — 30% — are less likely to cast their ballot for such a legislator while nearly one in five — 19% — says it makes no difference to their vote.  Seven percent are unsure.

While a majority of Democratic voters — 55% — and a plurality of non-enrolled voters — 45% — think they are more likely to vote for a state senator who supported the same-sex marriage law, a plurality of Republican voters — 43%– say such a vote makes them less likely to support that state senator.

There is little difference regionally.  46% of voters in New York City’s suburbs, 44% of those in the city, and 41% of upstate voters report they are more likely to vote for a lawmaker who backed the law.

However, age differences exist.  A majority of voters younger than 45 years old — 52% — report support for the law positively impacts their vote for a state senator while 40% of older voters agree.

Table: More or Less Likely to Vote for a State Senator Who Supported Same-Sex Marriage Law (Registered Voters)

Most Don’t Expect to Attend Same-Sex Wedding But Would Attend If Asked

Although 79% of New York State residents do not expect to be a guest at the same-sex marriage of a family member or friend in the next year, 70% would attend such a ceremony.  Even 34% of adults who oppose the law legalizing same-sex marriage say they would go to the wedding of a gay or lesbian couple.

Key findings include:

• 79% of New York State adults do not expect to attend a same-sex marriage in the coming year.  15% do, and 6% are unsure.
• Seven in ten adults — 70% — would attend the same-sex marriage of a friend or family member.  71% of registered voters and 67% of Republicans would do the same.

Table: Expect to Attend a Same-Sex Marriage in the Next 12 Months

Table: Expect to Attend a Same-Sex Marriage in the Next 12 Months (Registered Voters)

Table: Would Attend a Same-Sex Marriage

Table: Would Attend a Same-Sex Marriage (Registered Voters)

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology

8/10: Obama’s Re-Election Prospects: Voters Divide

President Barack Obama asserts that change doesn’t occur overnight.  But, will registered voters nationwide give him the opportunity to fulfill his promise during a second term?  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, voters divide.  Four in ten — 40% — say they will definitely vote for the president next year while 40% think they will definitely vote against him.  A notable one in five — 20% — is unsure.

Click Here for Complete August 10^th, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in June, 43% of registered voters thought they would definitely vote against President Obama while 36% said they would definitely vote for him.  21%, at the time, were unsure.

“Voters nationally continue to be mixed about President Obama’s re-election prospects,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The difference occurs when he is matched against specific GOP wannabes.  Here, he has the edge against a host of possible challengers.”

Although 40% of independent voters report they plan to vote against President Obama next year, more than one-third of independents — 35% — currently plan to vote for the president, and a notable 25% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, only 29% of independents thought they would back the president while 43% planned to vote for another candidate.  28%, at the time, were unsure.

There has been little change among Democrats.  69% report they will support President Obama, 14% will not, and 16% are unsure.  In June, those proportions stood at 70%, 10%, and 20%, respectively.  Among Republican voters nationally, 7% plan to vote for the president.   77% say they will cast their ballot for another candidate, and 16% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, only 4% of GOP voters reported Mr. Obama would receive their vote while 85% said they were not planning to back the president.  10%, then, were unsure.

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Table: Definitely Plan to Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012 (Over Time)

Obama Leads GOP Challengers … Majority Support Against Bachmann, Perry, & Palin

Regardless of whether or not voters plan to cast their ballot for the president next year, Mr. Obama fares well against most potential Republican challengers.  In fact, the president has either majority support or his backing has remained consistent since McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey in June.

When paired against leading Republican challengers, here is how the contests stand:

• President Obama receives 46% of registered voters’ support to 41% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  13% are undecided.  In June, 46% backed Obama while 42% rallied for Romney.  11%, at the time, were undecided.
• When the president goes head-to-head with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 48% say they are for Obama while 43% are behind Giuliani.  Nine percent are undecided.  Little has changed on this question since June when 48% backed Obama, 41% touted Giuliani, and 12% were undecided.
• President Obama has a 13 percentage point lead over former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.  Nearly half — 49% — support the president while 36% throw their support behind Pawlenty.  15% are undecided.  In June, 47% supported the president, about one-third — 33% — backed Pawlenty, and one in five — 20% — was undecided.
• When matched against Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, the president receives majority support.  52% rally behind the president while 35% are in Bachmann’s corner.  13% are undecided.  A couple of months ago, 49% backed Obama, 37% were behind Bachmann, and 14% were undecided.
• The president has a 19 percentage point lead over Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Here, 52% support the president, 33% are behind Perry, and 14% are undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 48% said they would vote for Obama while 39% reported they would cast their ballot for Perry.  13%, at the time, were undecided.
• President Obama receives the greatest support when up against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  56% support the president while 35% are in Palin’s camp.  Nine percent are undecided.  In June, 56% gave their endorsement to Obama, 30% touted Palin, and 14% were undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Pawlenty

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)

Romney, Perry Lead Pack of GOP Contenders

Is there a likely Republican candidate to face-off against President Barack Obama in next year’s general election?  Although Mitt Romney and Rick Perry top the list of potential candidates, they each only receive support from about one in five Republican primary voters.

Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

• 21% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• 18% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
• 10% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
• 9% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
• 8% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
• 6% for businessman Herman Cain
• 3% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
• 3% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
• 2% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
• 2% for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
• 2% for former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
• 2% for former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer
• 1% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
• Less than 1% for Political Activist Fred Karger
• 14% are undecided

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Previous Survey Results for the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

8/10: A.J. Burnett and the U.S. Economy

Unless you’ve been under a rock or on another planet, you know that despite folks saying that our economy couldn’t get any worse, it has.  Standard & Poors has removed the United States from its list of risk-free borrowers, and following the action, the stock market plummeted, demonstrating a lack of confidence in our country’s ability to deal with the national debt.

If you’re a die-hard New York Yankee fan, you know that the Bronx Bombers finally defeated the Boston Red Sox on Saturday.  They owned a short-lived one game lead atop the American League East and haven’t won since.

So in summary, that’s the good news and the bad.

But for those of us who constantly find ourselves consumed with the fortunes of the Pinstripers, there is the lingering problem of what to do about A.J. Burnett.

Burnett was acquired in 2008 from the Toronto Blue Jays, and at the time, many considered him to be the icing on the cake for the starting rotation.  His first season was respectable — 13 wins, 9 losses.  He had moments of brilliance, and he appeared to be one of the ingredients in bringing some levity to the clubhouse with his propensity to slam shaving cream pies into the faces of the game heroes following walk-off victories.

But then things changed, and quicker than you can say Chuck Knoblauch, he has become the big question mark in the starting rotation.  Thursday night he could not maintain a 13-1 lead, and Joe Girardi had no choice but to yank him before he completed the 5 innings necessary for him to secure the win.  A.J. didn’t win in July.  He didn’t win a single game in July and August of last season.

Let me suggest that his mechanics are good.  He has the ability to execute.  However, one can look into his eyes and see the self-doubt.  Chuck Knoblauch had the same look when he could no longer make a routine throw from second base to first to get the out.  Knoblauch was moved to the outfield.  What do you do with A.J?  The bullpen is crowded with great performances.  The starting rotation is overflowing with good arms.  What to do?

I’m wondering if a good hypnotist might do some magic and help Burnett convince himself that he can win again.

And, I’m hoping the same thing for the United States of America.  We need to reclaim the self-confidence that has made our nation great.

My father’s generation experienced the Great Depression.  Then the leader of the free world stepped up to the plate and told us that “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”  The message rings true for today.

Let us hope and pray that we don’t enter a war to help us find ourselves again.  The stakes are much more deadly today.

Yet, it’s not so simple as moving to left field or engaging a hypnotist.  But we do need sacrifice.  We need to become a manufacturing giant again.  We can no longer live in a world of smoke and mirrors in which we rationalize that the age of technology changes everything.  Truth is, we have become a nation of consumers, and that must change.  In order to have jobs, we need to be making something.  In order to make things, we need to depend on our natural resources.  And to compete with the world, we must bite the bullet and go to work for considerably less than the wages we expect to make.  When shirt makers in Hong Kong and China go to work for the lowest of wages, we need to take a hard long look and make the decision that in a global economy in order to compete, we must make sacrifices.  We must feel the pain.  In short we can’t have it all.  We must either work for considerably less or make a personal statement by buying only U.S. products.  Since one can rarely find the label “Made in USA,” that’s going to be no mean trick.

Regardless, instead of thinking about number one, we must think of the team.  The team is the United States of America.  All of us need to be team players.

Relief pitcher Rafael Soriano told Joe Girardi that he didn’t care where Girardi pitched him — he was there to make his contribution.  Jorge Posada didn’t like it when he was dropped in the lineup earlier this season.  For a brief 24-hour period his ego got the best of him, and rather uncharacteristically, he thought of himself and not his team.  It didn’t take him long to remember to practice what he had preached to others.

It’s teamwork and sacrifice that will get the job done for the Yankees and for our country’s economy.  But each of us must participate — lawmakers, businessmen, labor, even baseball players.  We must come up with solutions, and that includes doing with less, rolling our sleeves up, getting to work, and making sacrifices — together as a team.

Above all, we must take pride in our team.  We must regain our self-confidence.  By the way — I’m convinced that A.J. Burnett can do the same.

8/9: McClatchy-Marist Poll

As speculation grows about a possible presidential run by Texas Governor Rick Perry, what are his electoral chances when matched against other potential Republican candidates and President Barack Obama?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

8/9: Nation’s Direction Takes Sharp Turn for the Worse

Americans’ views toward the future of the country have become increasingly negative.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, seven in ten U.S. residents — 70% — believe the nation is moving in the wrong direction while only 21% say it is traveling along the right one.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.

Click Here for Complete August 9^th, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

There has been a major change on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in June.  At that time, 59% thought the country was on the wrong track while 32% said it was on the right one.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

The current proportion of Americans who report the nation needs its course corrected is the largest since President Barack Obama took office in January of 2009 and the worst in more than a decade.

“It’s getting harder and harder for Washington to have a tin ear to Americans who are clamoring about the direction of the nation,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Republicans are the most negative in their views.  But, Democrats and independents have increasingly soured to the direction of the country.”

Looking at registered voters, the largest change has occurred among Democrats and independent voters.

• 72% of registered voters view the nation as going downhill while 21% perceive it as on the right track.  Just 7% are unsure.
• 54% of Democrats now report the country is moving in the wrong direction.  37% said the same in June.
• Among independents, nearly eight in ten — 78% — believe the nation’s trajectory is negative while 62% thought the same in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.
• 88% of Republicans currently think the nation is on the wrong path, little changed from 87% in June.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Over Time)

 

Plurality Denounces Debt Deal

The debate over whether or not to raise the nation’s debt ceiling has dominated political debate for most of the summer.  How do Americans assess the agreement?  A plurality of Americans — 47% — characterizes it as bad for the nation while 41% believe the deal, overall, is good for America.  12% are unsure.

Among registered voters:

• 47% report the agreement is bad for the country while 43% say it is a good thing.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.
• 63% of Republicans and 49% of independents think the debt deal is bad for the country.
• A majority of Democrats — 56% — believe it is good for the nation.

On the specifics of the debt ceiling deal, about two-thirds of Americans — 66% — think the agreement’s approach is unbalanced.  Almost one in five — 19% — believe the deal is balanced, and 14% are unsure.

Registered voters have similar views.  68% of registered voters say the agreement is out of balance while one in five — 20% — report it is balanced.  12% are unsure.  Independent voters tip the scale on this question.  72% of independents say the debt deal is not balanced.  This compares with 67% of Republicans and 64% of Democrats.

But, who do Americans believe will benefit from the deal, and who will carry the burden?

Key points:

• 65% of residents nationwide think the deal is unfair to the elderly.  26% say it is fair, and 9% are unsure.
• More than six in ten residents — 62% — think the deal is unfair to the poor.  28% disagree, and 10% are unsure.
• About six in ten adults — 61% — believe the agreement shortchanges the middle class.  29% believe the deal is fair, and 10% are unsure.
• However, a majority of U.S. adults — 55% — say the debt ceiling agreement is fair to Americans with high incomes.  34% call it unfair, and 11% are unsure.
• A majority also believes the agreement is fair to Corporate America.  54% of residents have this view.  31% think the opposite is true, and 15% are unsure.

Table: Is the Debt Ceiling Agreement Good or Bad for the Nation?

Table: Is the Debt Deal Balanced or Not Balanced?

Table: Is the Debt Deal Fair or Unfair to the Elderly?

Table: Is the Debt Deal Fair or Unfair to the Poor?

Table: Is the Debt Deal Fair or Unfair to the Middle Class?

Table: Is the Debt Deal Fair or Unfair to Americans with High Incomes?

Table: Is the Debt Deal Fair or Unfair to Corporate America?

Debt Deal Fallout

More than three in four adults nationally — 77% — say the debt ceiling debate has made them less confident in government in Washington.  79% of registered voters agree.  Just 15% of U.S. residents say the political wrangling has given them increased confidence in the federal government, and 9% are unsure.

Despite the debt ceiling debate, President Obama’s job performance has changed little.  44% of registered voters approve of the job he is doing while 46% disapprove.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s June survey, 45% approved of how the president was performing in office while 47% disapproved.  Eight percent, at the time, were unsure.

The job approval rating of Republicans in Congress still lags behind that of the president, but it has changed little over the past few weeks.  More than six in ten registered voters — 62% — still disapprove of their job performance while only 27% approve.  11% are unsure.  In June, those proportions stood at 63%, 27%, and 10%, respectively.

Even 44% of Republican voters disapprove of how members of their own party are doing in Congress.

Looking at the Democrats in Congress, a majority — 55% — of registered voters disapprove of the job they are doing.  35% approve, and 11% are unsure.  In June, 60% gave the Democrats in Congress poor marks while 30% rated them well.  10% were unsure.

Is President Obama too liberal, too conservative, or about right?  48% believe President Obama is ideologically positioned about right.  More independent voters think the president’s ideology is on track than believe the same about the Republicans and Democrats in Congress.

Key points:

• 48% of registered voters say President Obama is neither too liberal nor too conservative.  36% perceive the president as too liberal while 7% think he is too conservative.  Eight percent are unsure.

o   Not surprisingly, 71% of Democrats perceive the president’s ideology to be about right while 71% of Republicans think he is too liberal.  46% of independents believe Mr. Obama’s ideology is on target.

• When it comes to Republicans in Congress, 41% of registered voters say they are too conservative while 31% think they are about right.  17% call them too liberal.  11% are unsure.

o   Only 29% of independent voters say the Republicans in Congress are on track.  40% believe they are too conservative.

• 42% of voters believe Democrats in Congress are too liberal.  36% say their ideology is on the mark while 12% report they are too conservative.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.

o   Among independent voters, 35% describe the ideology of Democrats in Congress as about right.  40% believe they are too liberal.

Is the president still perceived as likeable?  52% of registered voters view President Obama favorably.  41% have a less than stellar impression of him, and 8% are unsure.

Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in June.  At that time, half — 50% — thought well of the president, 44% had a lesser impression of Mr. Obama, and 6% were unsure.

And, what about the Tea Party?  31% of Americans say it played a major role in shaping the debt deal, about one-third — 33% — think the movement played a minor role, and 19% believe it played no role at all.  17% are unsure.

Nearly three in ten registered voters — 29% — still identify with the Tea Party compared with 25% who did so in June.

Among registered voters who support the Tea Party, 34% think the movement played a major role in shaping the deal.  46% believe it had a minor role, and 15% say it played no part at all.  Six percent are unsure.

When it comes to electoral politics, the message registered voters are sending to candidates who plan to run for Congress next year depends on their political allegiance.  Among registered voters overall, 41% say they are less likely to cast their ballot for a candidate who supported the debt ceiling deal while 36% report they are more likely to vote for such a candidate.  11% state that support for the debt ceiling agreement makes no difference to their vote, and 12% are unsure.

Key points:

• By party, a majority of Republican voters — 53% — report that a candidate’s backing of the agreement makes them less likely to support that candidate for Congress next year.  24% report it makes them more likely to do so.  However, nearly half of Democrats — 47% — say support of the deal makes them more likely to back a candidate for Congress while 30% state it makes them less likely to cast their ballot for that candidate next year.
• Only 27% of those who support the Tea Party movement say a candidate’s support for the debt agreement makes them more likely to back that candidate.  61% report it makes them less likely while 6% say it makes no difference to their vote.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: Debt Ceiling Agreement’s Impact on Confidence in Government

Table: President Obama Approval Rating

Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

 

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: President Obama’s Ideology

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Ideology

Table: Congressional Democrats’ Ideology

Table: President Obama Favorability

Table: President Obama Favorability (Over Time)

 

Table: Role of Tea Party in Shaping the Debt Ceiling Agreement

Table: Tea Party Supporters

Table: Tea Party Supporters Over Time

Table: Impact of Debt Ceiling Support on 2012 Congressional Campaign

Round Two

When the budget talks resume, Americans expect a replay in the lack of cooperation between President Barack Obama and Congress.  Seven in ten American adults — 70% — believe it will be about the same during the next round of deficit talks.  16% believe they will be less cooperative while 14% think they will be more cooperative.

Which actions do Americans support to pay down the debt?  The direction of the debate in Washington is out of touch with what people want.

• Nearly seven in ten adults nationally — 68% — support increasing taxes on income over $250,000.  29% oppose such an action, and 3% are unsure.

o   Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.  69% support raising income taxes on the wealthiest Americans, 28% oppose it, and 2% are unsure.

o   Even 51% of Republicans and 43% of Tea Party supporters favor these tax increases.

• 60% of U.S. residents support eliminating oil subsidies for oil and gas companies while 33% oppose such an action.  Seven percent are unsure.
• Half of Americans — 50% — back the reduction of defense spending while 46% do not want to cut the current level of spending.  Four percent are unsure.

o   The same proportions of registered voters — 50%, 46%, and 4%, respectively — have these views.

o   60% of Democrats back the reduction of defense spending while 63% of Republicans oppose such a cut.

• Most U.S. residents — 83% — are against cutting Medicare and Social Security.  15% disagree, and 3% are unsure.

o   Among registered voters, the proportions are similar.  84% oppose reducing these benefits, 14% support such an action, and 2% are unsure.

o   Even eight in ten Republican voters — 80% — and 74% of Tea Party supporters are against reducing Medicare and Social Security.

• There is also opposition to cutting Medicaid and entitlements.  More than seven in ten Americans — 72% — are against reducing this area to pay down the debt while only 23% favor it.  Four percent are unsure.

o   There is little difference among registered voters nationally.  73% oppose slashing Medicaid and entitlements, 23% support it, and 4% are unsure.

o   Even majorities of Republican voters — 58% — and Tea Party supporters — 53% — oppose cutting Medicaid and entitlements.

Table: Level of Cooperation During the Next Round of Budget Talks

Table: Support or Oppose Increasing Taxes on Income Over $250,000?

Table: Support or Oppose Eliminating Oil Subsidies for Oil and Gas Companies?

Table: Support or Oppose Reducing Defense Spending?

Table: Support or Oppose Cutting Medicare and Social Security?

Table: Support or Oppose Cutting Medicaid and Entitlements?

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

 

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