7/28: Democratic Race for NYC Mayor Wide Open

In the aftermath of former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal about one-third of New York City’s Democrats, 32%, are undecided about whom to support in the Democratic primary for mayor in 2013.  The leading contenders are City Council Speaker Christine Quinn with 16%, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson with 15%, and Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz with 14%.  They are followed by New York City Comptroller John Liu who receives 9%, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio who has the support of 7%, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer who garners 6%, and Publisher Tom Allon who is backed by 1% of Democrats citywide.

Click Here for Complete July 28, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“With Weiner out of the picture, there are twice as many undecided voters than voters who support any one of the current contenders,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “That makes for a very fluid contest.”

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, now former Congressman Anthony Weiner received the backing of 18% of Democrats in New York City.  Thompson took 15% while Liu and Quinn each received 13% of the Democratic vote citywide.  At that time, 9% of Democrats reported they were pulling for de Blasio while 4% backed Stringer.  27%, then, were undecided.  Markowitz was not included in the previous survey.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Voters Want Weiner, Spitzer Out of 2013 Mayoralty

Citywide few voters, including those within their own party, want the sex scandal plagued pols, former Congressman Anthony Weiner or former Governor Eliot Spitzer, to seek the New York City mayoralty in 2013.  Only 26% would like to see Weiner in the race and just 33% would want Spitzer to enter the contest.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty? (Over Time)

New York City Voters Divide Over Top Cop Candidacy

How do New York City voters feel about Police Commissioner Ray Kelly becoming “Candidate Kelly?”  The electorate divides.  Citywide, 42%, would like to see Kelly run for mayor and 42% say he should stay out of the race.  16% are unsure.

Among Democrats, 41% would like Kelly to toss his proverbial hat into the ring.  This compares with 54% of Republicans and 35% of non-enrolled voters who say the same.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

7/22: Nearly One in Five Internet Users Regret Online Behavior

Former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sexting scandal sent shock waves throughout the nation.  But, can American Internet users relate to Mr. Weiner’s questionable online behavior?

Click Here for Complete July 22, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

Although 82% of Internet users nationally say they have never sent or said anything over the Internet that they regret, a notable 18% have.

Younger Internet users are more likely than older ones to have engaged in regrettable online actions.  24% of Internet users younger than 45 years old compared with 13% of those 45 and older report this to be the case.  And, men who use the Internet — 21% — are slightly more likely than female Internet users — 15% — to have sent or said something online they wish they could take back.

In general, what kind of impact does social media like Facebook have on relationships?  Half of Internet users nationwide — 50% — think social media does more harm than good.  About one-third — 33% — report social media does more good than harm, and 17% are unsure.  Similar proportions of adults overall share these views.  51% of residents think social media does more harm than good while nearly three in ten adults — 29% — think it has a positive impact.  20% are unsure.

Table: Personal Online Practices
Table: Social Media: More Good Than Harm or More Harm Than Good?

Marist Poll Methodology

7/21: Baseball Thrown Out as America’s Pastime?

Has baseball lost its place as America’s pastime?  CBS Sports broadcaster Verne Lundquist, who admits he’s lost enthusiasm for baseball, talks to the Marist Poll’s John Sparks about why and shares his thoughts, both, on the proposed realignment of the American and National Leagues and this year’s pennant races.

Listen to or read the transcript of the interview below.

John Sparks
Verne, we just passed the halfway mark for the baseball season, and I do want to talk about this year’s pennant races, but first I’d like to talk a little bit about the fans.  For the second year in a row, a majority of Americans say they are not baseball fans.  In fact, 52% tell the Marist Poll they won’t watch a single game at all this year.  So, I’m wondering is baseball no longer the national pastime?

Listen to Part 1:

Verne Lundquist
I don’t think it is, John.  I think they yielded that title to the NFL and not recently. I think football in general, but specifically the National Football League, became America’s pastime, favorite pastime, oh my gosh, maybe 10, 12 years ago. I think that baseball kind of lost its way, and they’re having difficulty getting people back and caring about it.

John Sparks
I’m curious about the reasons for the decline, time zones, perhaps, after expansion?

Verne Lundquist
Well, I understand that if you’re… listen, I live in Steamboat Springs, Colorado. So I live in the time zone that the country forgot.  We always get irritated, if I can use that word, about the television networks for whom one of which — for whom I work.  That’s grammatically incorrect, but you get my drift. It’s always 9:00 Eastern and Pacific and 8:00 Central, and we sit here with our mountain goats and our mountains and say, “What about us?”  But, I do think that the West Coast teams, you know, it’s tough for East Coast fans to get truly involved in what’s going on.  You could even make the case, I guess, in Texas with Houston and the Astros and up through the middle part of the country, but especially with the teams beginning with the Colorado Rockies, and I don’t think that there’s a fan base that really is evident back East for teams from here in Colorado on out to the West Coast with L.A. and San Francisco and Seattle and San Diego.

John Sparks
You know, I always thought of baseball as a blue collar sport, but I’m wondering, it seems that today’s players are more part of an elite class that I’m wondering if fans can just no longer identify with.

Verne Lundquist
Well, I think economically they certainly are, and you know, it’s tough to be sympathetic to owners who keep paying these astronomical salaries. I don’t remember what the figure is now, but I got tickled in the divorce, the publication of the Frank McCourt divorce papers, when they sought legal help that I think the Dodgers owed, I’m going to say this, and I’ll be within 5 or 6 million, they owed Manny Ramírez $21-million in guaranteed salary, and there was a footnote to the whole thing that somewhere along the line, they owed Vin Scully $165,000.  Well, that tells me something about the relative merits that they place on one of the great broadcasters ever in this pay-for-play guy that was there you know, for a couple of years.  But that’s true.  You know, John, that’s true not only in baseball. The salaries are — and let’s face it, you know, the television networks and the cable networks keep paying these astronomical rights fees, and the salaries are just out of sight — baseball, basketball, and football — in my view.

John Sparks
Is there any way that the waning interest in baseball might be turned around?

Listen to Part 2:

Verne Lundquist
I don’t know.  I’m pausing a long time because I would count myself in all candor as one of those people who’s lost interest. I lost interest in the game because I just found — I found the game not…  I mean if you talk to a passionate baseball fan, and I know hundreds of them who just absolutely live and die with their teams, most of them involve the Red Sox, the Yankees, and the Mets, as you can imagine, because my work environment is primarily centered around the East Coast, but they — I mean they can do sermons on the benefits of being a baseball fan. The whole sport has kind of turned me off for a long time.  I find it way too slow paced. I find it difficult… The season is forever, and the single…  I get all the arguments about how it’s a whole 162 game season, but I don’t…  How do you instill a sense of excitement back into the game?  Well, they did one thing, didn’t they, in the ’90s?  They allowed steroid use, and the sport I think suffered for that and is suffering for that, and the ownership kind of looked the other way, and in my view most of the baseball fans, the hard core fans, looked the other way during the steroid era. They were much more excited by the Sammy Sosas and the Mark McGwires and the battle to surpass, you know Barry Bonds.  It was just you know forget what you’re putting in your body, it’s the end result.  So, fans bear some responsibility for that too.

John Sparks
You know, one recent remedy has been suggested.  It’s a new proposal for realignment.  They talk about doing away with divisions and balancing the league so that the American and National League would each have 15 teams, and then the top four teams in each league would be eligible for playoffs, but they would also do away with interleague play. I wonder what your thoughts are around that.

Verne Lundquist
Well. I don’t think…  and again, this is from a guy who does not pay fervent attention to the regular season.  I just don’t..  But I…  again, this is just a personal expression, I don’t think people have ever gotten all that excited about interleague play. I suppose they have in Chicago, and I’m sure they have in New York to a lesser degree probably because everything sports-related in California seems to be less emotional for the fans than it is in other parts of the country.  I suppose where you’ve got San Francisco, Oakland, or you’ve got the Dodgers and the Angels, there’s a certain amount of interest generated by interleague play.  But I think on a whole, it’s not a bell ringer with most folks, and I’d…  The idea of the wildcard, I love the idea of going to the four best teams qualify, and let’s go from there. And then after they do that, they can do away with the designated hitter and everything’s going to be perfect.

John Sparks
Let’s talk briefly about the pennant races.  I’d like to talk about the American League first.  The Yankees and Red Sox are on top in the Eastern Division. In fact, those two teams were the ones that fans that were polled by the Marist Institute mentioned most as being contenders for this year’s World Series.  In the American League Central, surprise, the Cleveland Indians all of sudden have come from nowhere, and they’re in a two-way race with the Tigers.  And then, of course, in the West, the Rangers having come off of a Cinderella season last season are battling with the Angels, but still, Verne, the leaders in the West and the Central as far as their percentage goes is way below that of the Yankees and the Red Sox.  Do you think that in the end it’ll be Yankees and Red Sox again?

Listen to Part 3:

Verne Lundquist
That would be my guess.  Boston has kind of owned New York this year, and the country — I think the country cares about those two teams to a much higher degree than they do most others. I don’t want to make that a patent statement. I think you would agree with me that ESPN would have no Sunday night program if the Red Sox and the Yankees didn’t play each other because that is a staple of what they do, but you know, they’ve excelled over the last several years, and my guess is that they will again.  And, I agree with you about the Rangers’ Cinderella season.  I just… as a person who lived in Dallas and Fort Worth for a long time, of course, that is where I have a still live rooting interest, and I’d love to see them come back and do what they did last year.

John Sparks
Very briefly, the National League, the Phillies have become a powerhouse…

Verne Lundquist
Yeah.

John Sparks
…in the East; and in the Central, the Pittsburgh Pirates for crying out loud are kind of like the Indians; they’re back after a number of lean years, and of course, you’ve got the Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Giants appear to be repeaters in the West.  Any thoughts about how the National League might turn out?

Verne Lundquist
Well, I’ve noticed the Lance Berkman contribution to the Cardinals and you know with Pujols hobbled, that’s really good to see. I’m surprised like you are at Cleveland. I think Philadelphia is the best team in the National League, and all they’ve done is in the off season they added Cliff Lee with a wonderfully adept starting pitching rotation. I think that over the long haul, I would be shocked if they were not back in — if they weren’t in the World Series when it was over.  They’ve got to be the overwhelming favorites I think.  Yes, I know San Francisco makes a lusty claim, but — and as one, as I mentioned, I live in Colorado, you can only imagine how excited people in Denver got at the start of the season, and now they’ve kind of settled down, and they’re mediocre. But the whole… The Giants are the best team in the West, and the Phillies are the best team in the East and let’s — as they say, let’s watch them play in the middle of the country.

John Sparks
Well, it’ll be interesting to watch and also to see as we approach the end of July, which is the trading deadline, to see if what kind of fine tuning some of these ball clubs do.  Verne, it’s always pleasure to talk with you.  I know you’ve been on vacation for the last month or so and out of the country. I’m just curious, back to work with CBS and what might be on the horizon for you professionally.

Verne Lundquist
Well, we have enjoyed this time off, and I got in touch with my roots.  Nancy and I spent a month in Norway.  We touched in Denmark and Sweden, but mostly in Norway, and we just had a wonderful time, and it was really invigorating.  I’m up next with the PGA Championship in Atlanta the second week in August and then a little bit of a hiatus, and then we go, Gary Danielson and I are back doing the SEC.  We open with what has become an annual right of autumn for us, Tennessee and Florida, and the game this year will be in Gainesville.  And just one more little plug, John, since you’ve given me a chance to do this, our prime time game, we only get to do one in prime time each year, but we’re doing Alabama at Florida the first Saturday night in October, and I think that could be a doozy.

John Sparks
We’ll look forward to seeing that as well as the other games with you. It’s always a pleasure talking to you.

Verne Lundquist
Thank you, John.

7/20: More Americans Enjoying an Evening Out

Fuzzy slippers, sweat pants, and tee shirts are the appropriate dinner attire for nearly six in ten Americans.  According to this Marist Poll, 58% of Americans eat dinner at home at least six nights a week.  Included here are 35% who report they dine in seven nights a week and 23% who do so six nights a week.  Nearly one in five — 19% — are stuck with the dishes five nights weekly, and 24% clear the dinner table four or fewer times a week.

Click Here for Complete July 20, 2011 USA Poll Release and Tables

However, more Americans are dining out.  When Marist last asked this question in 2009 soon after the economic collapse, 70% of residents ate dinner at home six or seven nights a week.  17%, at that time, ate in five nights a week while 13% stayed in four or fewer.

Women are more likely than men to eat dinner at home.  62% of women, compared with 53% of men, say they eat dinner in the comfort of their own home six or seven nights a week.

And, there is an age difference.  Older Americans are more likely than younger Americans to eat in most nights.  64% of those 45 or older eat at home at least six nights a week.  This compares with 49% of those younger than 45.

Table: How Many Times a Week Do You Eat Dinner at Home?

Marist Poll Methodology

7/18: Internet MD’s: Nearly Four in Ten Americans Self-Diagnose Using the Web

When ill, a sizeable proportion of the American population turns to the Internet to uncover the cause of their illness.  According to this national Marist Poll, 37% of adults nationally say they self-diagnose using the Internet at least sometimes.  This includes 6% who always go online to self-diagnose, 7% who do so often, and nearly one in four — 24% — who act as “cyber doctor” some of the time.  However, one in ten residents — 10% — seldom self-diagnose online, and a majority — 53% — never do.

Click Here for Complete July 18, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Younger Americans are more likely to think the Internet makes them medical experts.  Those under 45 are also less likely than older Americans to get an annual checkup,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”And, no surprise here, women are more likely than men to schedule an annual checkup.”

Overall, only 54% of Americans report they go to the doctor every year for a checkup.  36% visit their physician just when they are sick, and one in ten — 10% — say they never go to the doctor.

Table: Self-diagnose Using the Internet
Table: Frequency of Doctor’s Visit

Marist Poll Methodology

7/14: Going Local…Majority Do Not Plan to Travel This Summer

According to this Marist Poll, a majority of adults nationally — 55% — say they won’t be booking a summer vacation this year.  45%, however, are planning to hit the road.  The proportion of residents who are traveling has changed little over the past couple of years.  In 2010, Marist found that 48% of Americans were escaping from their daily routine while 49% ventured away from home in 2009.

Click Here for Complete July 14, 2011 USA Poll Release and Tables

Among those who are taking a trip this summer, a long getaway isn’t necessarily on their agenda.  41% say they have several shorter weekend trips on their calendar while 35% plan to go on one or more long getaways.  Nearly one in four — 24% — say they will do both or have something else planned.

Compared with the summer of 2009, fewer vacationers are taking longer journeys.  At that time, 47% who planned to get out of town traveled for a long period of time.  42% went on several shorter jaunts, and just 11% took both types of vacations or did something else entirely.

Money matters continue to plague the vacation choices of many Americans.  While about two-thirds of residents — 66% — report they have not changed their vacation plans this year in order to save money, a notable 34% have.  There has been relatively no change on this question since the summer of 2009.  At that time, 65% reported money matters did not alter their vacation plans while 35% were restricted by financial concerns.

Table: Plan on Taking a Summer Vacation

Table: Summer Vacation History

Table: Length of Vacation

Table: Changed Plans to Save Money

Marist Poll Methodology

 

7/11: Budget Battles: In the Meantime for Americans

While Washington continues to do what Washington does badly… namely, negotiate budget deals…  Americans are impatiently waiting for our national political leaders to provide some relief from this long-lasting economic slump.  I suspect people aren’t finding much solace either in the economic jargon frequently bandied about in an effort to help Americans grasp what they are already experiencing.

A few examples come to mind.  The latest popular phrase that causes Americans angst is “double dip recession.”  Despite the official “end” to the recession two years ago, the public isn’t buying it.  In fact, 75% of Americans in the latest Marist-McClatchy national survey think the U.S. economy remains in a recession.  A double dip?  Not if you don’t think the first one has ended yet.

This isn’t the only offering of termonomics that makes people edgy.  It’s helpful hints to economic understanding like underemployment, stagflation, and the misery index that also come to mind.

Maybe an effort should be made to cut back on the losing lexicon of lousy economics and express money matters in ways that better capture the realities of people trying to make ends meet.  Several findings from our recent national survey might be enlightening.   First, 53% Americans think that regarding the U.S. economy the worst is yet to come.  Second, 72% of Americans expect their personal family finances to remain the same or get worse in the coming year.  This figure is largely unchanged since President Obama took office.  And finally, 39% of people describe the cost of living in their state as not very affordable or not affordable at all.

Hopefully, that provides a little clarity to what’s going on financially outside the budget deliberations.  Sorry, but we didn’t ask about a double dip recession.

7/11: Yanks, Red Sox Vie for First Place in the Stadium of Public Opinion

Major League Baseball’s midseason break is underway.  So, with tomorrow’s All-Star Game on the horizon, who do fans think will win it all in this year’s World Series?

Click here for Complete July 11, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this Marist Poll, the rivalry lives on!  17% of baseball fans nationally believe the New York Yankees will, once again, be crowned the kings of baseball.  However, they are in a virtual dead heat with their arch rivals, the Boston Red Sox.  15% report the Sox will be victorious.  The Philadelphia Phillies slide into the third spot with 10% of baseball fans on their side.  2010 World Series champs, the San Francisco Giants, who weren’t even a blip on baseball fans’ scorecard this time last year, receive 4%.  The St. Louis Cardinals also catch 4%.  23% of fans think another team will receive the championship title, and 27% are unsure.

When Marist reported this question last July, the Yankees were more of a fan favorite.  At that time, nearly three in ten baseball fans — 29% — thought the Bronx Bombers would round the bases into another World Series Championship title.  The Red Sox hit a grand slam in the minds of 11% followed by the Phillies with 5%.  The L.A. Dodgers, who were called out this year by fans, made the top five in 2010 with 4%.  Little has changed for the Cardinals who also received 4% at the time.  20%, last year, thought another team would be victorious, and 27% were unsure.

Table: Team Favored to Win the World Series

MLB Division Divide

There’s talk in the MLB to eliminate multiple divisions within the American and National Leagues and just have two leagues where the teams play each other the same number of times.  It would also re-structure the playoffs.  Should the rules of America’s pastime change, or should the chatter be thrown out before it reaches first base?  Baseball fans divide.  42% think this change is a good idea while 39% believe it is a bad one.  18% are unsure.

Just how many baseball fans are there nationally?  A majority of U.S. residents are not fans.  52% report they don’t watch baseball at all.  49%, however, check out a game at least a little.  Included here, are 10% who watch the sport a great deal, 9% who catch a good amount of it, and 30% who follow the sport a little.

There is little change on this question since last year.  At that time, 54% said they didn’t watch baseball at all, and 46% revealed they watched it at least a little.

Table: Changes to MLB Divisions
Table: Baseball Fans

Marist Poll Methodology

7/8: The GOP for 2012

What is particularly striking about our recent national poll on campaign 2012 is the lack of definition of the GOP field of White House wannabes.   Mitt Romney, the generally recognized front-runner, has the support of a mere 19% of Republican and Republican leaning independents.  Not exactly emulating Secretariat’s run in the Belmont Stakes.  Romney is trying to make President Obama’s handling of the economy the central issue of the campaign in the worst possible way.  With his latest flip-flop, it seems he’s doing just that.

Then, there’s the bench, the second tier in the poll numbers.  What stands out about this group — Giuliani, Perry, and Palin — is that none of them, as of yet, is an announced candidate.  Does one, two, or three eventually get in and what does that do to a changing line-up that has already lost Trump, Huckabee, Christie, Daniels, and Barbour, media grabbing would be candidates?

And, then there’s the long list of niche candidates none of whom breaks into double digits at this point.  Is there a possible future nominee or president among them?  Sure.  But, it’s a very long way for any of them before they earn the keys to the oval office.

Despite this cloudy GOP picture, President Obama should not be drafting his second inaugural address just yet.  His approval rating is mired in the mid-forties and he’s at his lowest point in how voters assess his handling of the economy.  The latest unemployment figures are not likely to ease anyone’s economic anguish.

Not surprisingly, his re-elect numbers are not impressive.  Only 36% say they will definitely vote to re-elect the President, and 42% opt for the so-called “generic” Republican.  Here’s the rub.  When you replace the “generic” GOPer with the name of a specific Republican, President Obama opens up an advantage.  He even breaks fifty against Palin.

No doubt, this is a narrative that is still unfolding.  But, I sense it’s likely to be the storyline for some time.

7/7: Family Finances: Steady as They Go for Majority

Overall, 52% of Americans think their personal family finances will remain the same in the coming year.  28% say they will get better while one in five — 20% — believe they will get worse.

Click Here for Complete July 7, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, nearly half — 48% — said their financial picture would remain about the same, 27% thought it would improve, and one in four — 25% — reported it would get worse.

“Through all the ups and downs of the economy, Americans’ expectations about their personal finances have remained essentially unchanged,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “People are slightly more positive than negative about their future family income, but most tell us things are likely to remain the same.”

Table: Your Personal Finances – Better, Worse, or the Same?

Table: Your Personal Finances – Better, Worse, or the Same? (Over Time)

 

There’s No Place Like Home…Nearly Eight in Ten Americans Plan to Stay Local, But a Notable Proportion Call Area Unaffordable

When it comes to their future plans, 78% of Americans say they do not plan to move out of state in the next five years.  However, nearly one in five American adults — 17% — report they will move away, and 5% are unsure.

There are age differences on this question.  The youngest members of the population are the least likely to stay put.  While 56% of 18 to 29 year olds report they will remain where they currently live, 36% say they will bid it farewell.  Among residents 30 to 44 years old, 82% will stay while 13% plan to go.  Similar proportions of those 45 to 59 share these views.  Here, 80% of these residents think they will not move to another state while 16% will.  Americans who are 60 and older are the most likely to stay local.  89% say they will not pack up and move out of state, while only 7% report they will.

Among American adults who do plan to move out of state, the leading reason they cite is jobs.  17% report this to be the case.  13%, however, say the cost of living is their motivating factor while the desire to move near family — 12% — rounds out the top three reasons.

When it comes to the cost of living in the place where they live, 62% of American adults view their local area as affordable.  A notable 39% say it is not.  There are age differences on this question.  Younger Americans are the most likely to consider their local region to be affordable.  68% of these residents have this view.  Looking at older Americans, 59% of those age 30 to 44, 58% between 45 and 59 years old, and 62% of those 60 and older agree.

Table: Plan to Move Out of State

Table: Reasons Behind Plans to Move Out of State

Table: Cost of Living

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

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