6/29: 2012, Obama, and the GOP

According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationally say they plan to vote against President Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election.  However, regardless of whom voters support, the national electorate divides about who they think will actually win.  Is there a Republican candidate who can mount a formidable challenge to the president?  In an evolving Republican field, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney receives the backing of only 19% of Republican and Republican leaning independent voters.  And, three of the top four vote getters for the Republican nomination are still on the sidelines.

“All signs point to a competitive 2012 election cycle,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, which scenario ends up ruling the day is still anyone’s guess.”

Click Here for Complete June 29, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Second Term for Obama? 43% Plan to Vote Against President

Looking to 2012, 43% of registered voters nationwide report they plan to vote against President Obama in 2012.  This compares with 36% who say they definitely plan to support him.  A notable 21% are unsure.  Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in April. At that time, 44% reported they planned to back someone else while 37% said they planned to vote for the president.  18%, at the time, were unsure.

Independents play a key role in Obama’s re-election bid.  43% say they would vote against Mr. Obama in 2012 while 29% are securely in his corner.  Nearly three in ten independent voters — 28% — are unsure.  The president has failed to make inroads with these all-important voters.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 47% of independents reported they would not support the president while 32% said they would cast their ballot for Mr. Obama.  21% were unsure.

While 70% of Democratic voters report they will unequivocally cast their ballot for the president and only 10% say they will vote against him, a notable one in five — 20% — are unsure.  Not surprisingly, most Republicans — 85% — don’t plan on supporting the president while just 4% say they will.  One in ten — 10% — are unsure.

Regardless of whether registered voters plan to support the president or the Republican candidate in 2012, voters divide about who will win.  44% believe the president will be victorious while 42% say the Republican candidate will win.  15% are undecided.

Looking at party lines, 67% of Democrats think the president will retain the White House while 69% of Republicans believe their candidate will defeat him.  Independents divide.  44% think the Republican challenger will be sworn into office while 42% say the president will achieve a second term.

Table: Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Table: Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012  Over Time

Table: 2012 Presidential Prediction

Obama Receives Majority Support Against Palin … Plurality Lead Over Rest of Field

While President Obama either leads or runs neck-in-neck with many potential Republican challengers, there is only one candidate over whom the president receives majority support.  When up against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, 56% of registered voters say they would support the president while three in ten — 30% — would back Palin.  14% are undecided.  Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in April when 56% supported Obama, 34% were behind Palin, and 10% were undecided.

When the president is matched up against other leading Republican challengers, here is how the contests stand:

• The closest contest occurs between President Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Here, 46% of registered voters nationally report they would cast their ballot for the president while 42% say they would cast their ballot for Romney.  11% are undecided.  Little has changed on this question since April.  At that time, 46% backed the president while 45% supported Romney.  Nine percent were unsure.
• When paired against former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 48% of voters report they would vote for President Obama while 41% say they would cast their ballot for Giuliani.  12% are undecided.
• When Mr. Obama goes head-to-head with Texas Governor Rick Perry, the president receives the backing of 48% of registered voters while Perry garners 39%.  13% are undecided.
• Nearly half of registered voters — 49% — report they would cast their ballot for President Obama if he were to face off against Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.  In this potential contest, 37% say they would support Representative Bachmann.  14% are undecided.
• When matched up against former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, the president has a 14 percentage point advantage.  President Obama receives the backing of 47% of registered voters while Pawlenty garners 33%.  A notable 20% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Giuliani

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Perry

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Bachmann

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Pawlenty

Romney Edges Wide Field of Republican Primary Candidates

As the Republican field for 2012 evolves, is there a runaway favorite?  Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

• 19% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• 13% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
• 13% for Texas Governor Rick Perry
• 11% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
• 8% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
• 5% for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
• 5% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
• 5% for businessman Herman Cain
• 2% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
• 2% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
• 1% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
• Less than 1% for Political Activist Fred Karger
• Less than 1% for former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
• 15% are undecided

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Previous Survey Results for the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

What Matters to GOP Voters?

When it comes to the quality that is most important to Republicans and Republican leaning independents, 38% want a candidate who shares their values.  Nearly one in four — 24% — believe it’s most important that the Republican candidate is closest to them on the issues.  20% say they want a candidate who has the experience to govern, and 15% say the most important quality in a Republican presidential candidate is that he or she can beat President Obama.  Only 4% are unsure.

When it comes to Tea Party backing, 70% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents report that it makes no difference to their vote if a candidate is supported by the Tea Party movement.  However, 20% say the Tea Party endorsement will make them more likely to vote for a candidate while 10% report it will make them less likely to vote for a specific candidate.

Table: Most Important Quality in a Republican Nominee

Table: Importance of Candidate’s Tea Party Backing

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

6/28: McClatchy-Marist Poll

What are President Barack Obama’s re-election chances?  Is there a Republican who can mount a formidable challenge?

Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full article, click here.

6/28: More than Six in Ten Unhappy with Obama on Deficit … Handling of Economy at New Low

President Barack Obama met with Senate leaders yesterday to jumpstart stalled budget talks, but do voters nationwide agree with how the president is handling the federal budget deficit?

Click Here for Complete June 28, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this McClatchy-Marist poll, 61% of voters disapprove of how the president is handling the deficit.  Fewer than one-third — 31% — approve, and 8% are unsure.

“President Obama is increasingly focusing on and is the focus of budget negotiations,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Once again, it seems the buck stops in the oval office.”

While a majority of Democrats — 56% — approve of the president’s performance on the issue of the deficit, nearly four in ten — 37% — disapprove, and 8% are unsure.  True to party lines, most Republicans — 89% — disapprove of the president’s fiscal management while only 7% approve.  Four percent of Republicans are unsure.  Among independent voters nationally, 65% disapprove of how the president is dealing with the budget deficit, and 26% approve.  Nine percent of independents are unsure.

Voters are also voicing their dissatisfaction over the president’s handling of the economy.  In fact, President Obama’s rating on the economy has hit an all-time low.  Just 37% of registered voters nationally approve of the way the president is handling the economy while nearly six in ten — 58% — disapprove.  Five percent are unsure.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, 40% gave the president high marks on how he was dealing with the economy while 57% rated his performance as sub-par.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

However, many voters still don’t blame President Obama for the nation’s current economic conditions.  61% report the president inherited them while 31% think they are the result of his own policies.  Nine percent are unsure.  Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.  In April, 63% thought the president faced these trying economic conditions when he entered office while 30% said his policies created them.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Deficit
Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy
Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Economy Over Time

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited
Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited Over Time

Majority Supports President’s Handling of War in Afghanistan, But War Viewed as Not Worth Fighting

President Obama scores higher on his handling of the war in Afghanistan than he does on the economy.  53% say they approve of the president’s actions while 39% disapprove.  Eight percent are unsure.  During the time period this McClatchy-Marist Poll was conducted, the president addressed the nation and shared his plans for withdrawing troops from the region.  Did his address influence voters’ views toward his handling of the conflict?  It did not.  Similar proportions of voters before and after his speech approve of the president’s approach.

But, where do voters stand on bringing the troops home?  Only 14% of registered voters think the United States has important work to do in Afghanistan and should keep the number of soldiers deployed at its current level.  38% believe there is still work to be done in Afghanistan, but some of the troops should return home now.  However, 43% report the mission in Afghanistan is complete, and the troops should return home now.  Five percent are unsure.

A majority of voters — 54% — say that, when thinking about the war’s costs and benefits to the United States, the nearly decade long conflict has not been worth fighting.  Four in ten — 40% — disagree and report it has been worth the effort.  Six percent are unsure.

While views differ along party lines, even 43% of Republicans don’t think the war has been worth the costs.  This compares with 62% of Democrats and 54% of independent voters who share this view.

Table: President Obama Handling the War in Afghanistan
Table: Troop Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Table: Worth Fighting War in Afghanistan?

Obama Receives Mixed Reviews on Libya

Voters divide about how the president is handling the situation in Libya.  44% of voters nationally approve of his methods while 40% disapprove.  16% are unsure.  In April, 44% approved, and 46% disapproved. Looking at party, 64% of Democrats approve of the president’s actions, 23% disapprove, and 13% are unsure.

Among Republicans, nearly six ten — 57% — disapprove of how President Obama is handling the situation in Libya.  25% approve, and 18% are unsure.    Independent voters divide.  43% disapprove while 41% approve.  16% are unsure.

Table: President Obama’s Handling of the Situation in Libya

Overall Approval Rating Stuck in Mid 40’s… Half View President Favorably

So, what does all of this mean for the president’s overall job approval rating?  Voters divide.  45% approve of how Mr. Obama is performing in office while 47% disapprove.  Eight percent are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s April survey, 44% thought highly of how the president was doing in office, 49% disapproved, and 6%, at the time, were unsure.

President Obama continues to struggle with independent voters.  A slim majority of these voters — 51% — disapprove of the president’s job performance while 39% approve.  10% are unsure.  Little has changed among independent voters since April.  At that time, 51% disapproved of the president’s job performance, 42% approved, and 8% were unsure.

When it comes to Mr. Obama’s favorability, half of voters — 50% — think well of him while 44% have a less than stellar impression of him.  Six percent are unsure.  In April, when 48% had a favorable view of the president, 48% also held an unfavorable impression of Mr. Obama, and 5% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating
Table: President Obama Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: President Obama Favorability
Table: President Obama Favorability Over Time

Capitol Failures?  Many Disapprove of Congressional Democrats and Republicans

President Obama’s job approval rating isn’t the only one that’s struggling.  Registered voters are voicing their dissatisfaction with Democrats and Republicans in Congress.  63% say they disapprove of the job Republicans are doing in office while 27% approve.  10% are unsure.  There is relatively no change on this question since April.  At that time, 63% disapproved of how Republicans in office were doing their job, 30% approved, and 7% were unsure.

Democrats in Congress don’t fare any better.  60% of registered voters give them a thumbs-down while 30% praise the job they are doing.  10% are unsure.  In April, 60% disapproved of their job performance, 34% approved, and 6%, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Congressional Republicans’ Approval Rating
Table: Congressional Democrats’ Approval Rating

Americans Pessimistic about Nation’s Direction

Nearly six in ten American adults — 59% — report the country is moving in the wrong direction.  However, 32% believe it is moving on the right path.  Nine percent are unsure.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, 64% thought the nation needed a new compass, 31% believed the country was traveling along the right course, and 5% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country
Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Over Time)

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

6/27: McClatchy-Marist Poll

The U.S. deficit and economy loom over President Barack Obama’s administration.  What kind of an impact could these issues have as the president seeks re-election?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full article, click here.

6/23: All Work and No Play for Business Travel?

On behalf of the Marriott Corporation, The Marist Poll conducted a study to assess perceptions of business travel among frequent jet setters in the U.S., China, Germany, and the UK.  And who knew – I’m more like the Chinese than I realized!  In fact, they are most likely to view business travel as glamorous, as relaxing, as their vacations, and want to extend their ventures for pleasure and exploration.

Last month, I attended the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s annual conference in Phoenix, Arizona.  And, unlike the majority of Americans (53%) who reported they prefer not to take along a spouse or family member on business, my husband and I relish these opportunities to pack in as much exploration in as little time possible.  So, we crafted a mini-vacation around the conference.

We flew to Las Vegas on a Saturday; Monday morning we rented a car and headed to the Grand Canyon; Tuesday night we continued south to Sedona; Wednesday night arrived in Phoenix; Thursday commenced the conference.  Of course, between intense methodological discussions of cell phone surveying, address based sampling, and cross-cultural research, there was time for hiking, great Southwestern food, and little relaxation. Perfection!

Here are a few tips, from many lessons learned, for having some play with business travel:

– Take clients, colleagues, or other people with whom you’re looking to network to local restaurants (outside of the conference/meeting location), museums, or scenic drives.  It’s a great way to talk business while exploring something new together.

– Extend the trip even 1 or 2 days before or after your meeting/conference.  It’s amazing how much you can see in a day or two!

– Connect with locals prior to your trip.  It’s the best way to find off the beaten path activities and the best restaurants.

– Plan ahead!  Given you’re likely to have so little time for excursions, it’s probably not the best idea to “wing it.” While I’m an advocate of spontaneity, you don’t want to lose time searching the Internet or missing the sites while your head is buried in a travel book.

– Rest another time.  Meeting and work responsibilities are likely to take up the vast majority of your business trips.  So, if you want time to “play” you’ll probably have to forgo some R&R and soak up all of the sites and local offerings of your destination…and you’d be surprised…every place has something unique to offer.

6/13: The 2012 Republican Field

Election Day 2012 is more than a year away, but for Republicans, the contest to find a candidate to oppose President Barack Obama is in full swing.  What should GOP candidates be doing now?  Which issues will be relevant, and where do the candidates stand?  The Marist Poll’s John Sparks speaks with Marist Poll Analyst and syndicated political columnist Carl Leubsdorf who writes a weekly column for The Dallas Morning News.

Listen to the interview or read the transcript below.

John Sparks
Carl, only 17 months until Election Day 2012.  Now that’s a lot of time unless you’re a potential candidate.  President Obama has a lock on the Democratic nomination, but if you’re a Republican who wants to be president, what do you need to be doing now?

Carl
Well, and it’s, of course, for Republicans, the timeframe is a lot shorter, because the Iowa Caucuses is the first test will take place either in February or perhaps in January, so that’s only seven or eight months.  There’s several things a candidate needs to be doing now.  One is raising money.  The way presidential politics works is you need certain amount of money to maintain an operation and to run media and you use a certain amount to get to the opening test, and then you have to have the facility to raise additional money if you manage to survive the opening test, so candidates may typically spend a lot of time fundraising, and that’s an area where a couple of the potential candidates have a big advantage.  Mitt Romney, who ran before and then showed considerable capability of raising, and has already raised a lot of money, has a big national organization to do it and Sarah Palin because I think she could gem up a campaign very quickly and raise a bunch of money because of the intensity of her following. So, that’s one thing that you do.

You’re getting staff together. You’re getting people to run your operations, especially in the three crucial early states – Iowa, where they have the caucuses; the New Hampshire primary, which comes eight days later; and the South Carolina primary, which has become a crucial test for — especially for Republicans.  Every Republican nominee since 1980 has won in South Carolina. The other early test is the Nevada Caucuses.  That may be less of a significant place to where not all the candidates may campaign there.  So, you’re doing staff.

The third is you have to have a certain understanding of the issues, and for candidates, it’s almost too late to do that. That’s what they’re supposed to have done over the last two or three years because — the reason is because the candidates, it’s fine when they make speeches and do their own thing, but starting on Monday the 13th of June, we’re going to have a series of Republican debates, and that’s a real opportunity for candidates to show that they understand the issues and what their positions are, but it’s also a potential pitfall for candidates who are not up to speed. One of the hints that I got a couple months ago that Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, was probably not running was that he was at a press session that I was at, and I thought that he was not up to speed on the issues. He’d had problems with that four years ago, but we sort of forgave him because he didn’t have much money and a small staff. Now running the second time, he really needs to know that.  I think Sarah Palin could have problems with that if she runs.  She continually seems to say things that aren’t quite right.  And you’re running against people like Romney, who’s been around the track before, and Michele Bachmann, who’s a member of Congress and so has had to vote on a lot of these issues; Newt Gingrich, who knows a lot of substantive things, so you got to be prepared on the issues.

Listen to Part 1:

John Sparks
Let’s say you’re a Republican who wants to be a president, what issues do you believe that President Obama is most vulnerable on?  Bin Laden didn’t buy the groceries for instance.

Carl
Well, clearly the key issue at this point looks like it’ll be the economy and the fact that the economy has not recovered as quickly from the deep recession that President Obama inherited as he would like and as certainly as Americans would like.  There’s a new Washington Post poll and it shows, for example, that more people think the recovery has not started than think it has started.  The statistics don’t say that. Corporate earnings don’t show that.  The increase in employment, modest though it’s been, doesn’t show that, but the public feels that way, and that indicates a vulnerability for Obama and an opportunity for the Republicans.

Now having said that, their issue at this point is it’s easy enough for Republicans to beat up on the Obama just as it was for Democrats four years ago to beat up on President Bush.  What they need to do though is talking to — if they’re going to be talking to Republican audiences, and some of them are going to try to want to draw differences to show that either they’d be a stronger candidate or that they’re a better Republican. It’ll be interesting to see, for example, if differences develop on the controversial Republican budget that passed the House, the one devised by Congressman Ryan of Wisconsin. There are some signs that some of the Republican candidates, while generally in favor of the thrust of that, are not signing aboard the plan to phase out Medicare down the road, which has proved to be very controversial.  So I think there will be some effort to draw differences.

There’ll also be an effort to point out vulnerabilities on the issues of their fellow candidates, and a number of the Republican candidates have vulnerabilities at least in terms of the Republican electorate.  Mitt Romney well publicized because the healthcare plan that he passed in Massachusetts was considered in some ways the model for the Obama National Health Care Plan.  The Republicans are strongly against what they call Obama Care, so that makes Romney vulnerable, especially the concept that everyone would have to buy health insurance, even though ironically that’s something that was originally devised by the Republicans.

Another issue is the environment, the so called Cap and Trade proposal that a lot of Republicans were for in the past, including some of the candidates like former Governor Pawlenty of Minnesota, former Governor Huntsman of Utah, popular Republicans now.  They’re all going to have to be against it, so the candidates will be picking at each other at some of these issues.

Listen to Part 2:

John Sparks
How important will social issues be in this upcoming election?

Carl
I think social issues will not be that important.  For one thing, I think that the Republicans pretty much agree on those issues.  There are a couple of small differences. Governor Huntsman, I believe, is in favor of at least civil unions if not gay marriage.  Most of the Republicans are against that.  Romney was for it originally but is now against it.  They’re all strongly against abortion rights.  Now, what will make a difference on the social issues is that I think some of the religious conservatives who were an important block in the Republican Party feel that some of the candidates are much more with them and much more genuine in their positions on these than the others.  So, they’re likely to back candidates like Michele Bachmann, maybe Rick Santorum, and some of the others, maybe Newt Gingrich, more likely to back them they’re going to back Governor Romney or Governor Huntsman.  In the general election, I think it’s the divisions between the parties are pretty well known.  They haven’t changed.  The Republicans will take — will oppose abortion rights in their platform as they have consistently since 1980. The Democrats will support it.  I think within an election where the economy is such a crucial factor and is going to be such a big issue, social issues will not play that a big of role, but you’ll hear a lot about that during the Republican primaries.

John Sparks
What about foreign policy, specifically the Middle East, Israel, Libya?

Carl
Again, I think that it’s too early to understand.  With the economy, we know that whether it’s going to be better next year or worse next year, it’s going to be an issue because Americans, when push comes to shove, they care about their jobs, the future of their jobs, the jobs for their children, and the well-being of their families.  Foreign policy issues come and go, and a lot of that really depends on what’s happening in the world at the time of the election.  President Obama recently got into some problem politically on the Middle East issue by saying something which in fact was true and had been U.S. policy all along, that the starting point for any Arab-Palestinian agreement would — Israeli-Palestinian agreement would be the boundaries from 1967 but with changes.  Critics said, “Oh, he wanted to go back to the boundaries, and Israel would never do that.”  Republicans immediately jumped on that because several said that he had thrown Israel under the bus. I mean this kind of rhetoric you hear always. The fact is Jewish vote has been heavily Democratic in recent years, more because of domestic policy, I think, since all American politicians are in favor of Israel, and I don’t think that’ll be a big issue.

Now depending what’s happening in Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya, that could be an issue. I think President Obama will benefit to some degree from having killed his — American forces having killed Osama bin Laden, and he’ll benefit to some degree if he’s able to show some more drawdown of U.S. forces in some of these wars, something he promised he’d do.

Listen to Part 3:

John Sparks
I count about a dozen who have either announced for the Republican nomination or may be flirting with the idea.  I’d like go down my list and have you comment about each one…

Carl
Sure.

John Sparks
…and what do you think the challenges might be for each one of those, and you mentioned Mitt Romney.  He announced June the 2nd.  Would you say he is the front runner?

Carl
He is the closest thing to a front runner that there is.  When you take the non-candidates out of the race, he leads in the Republican polls. The Republicans… And he’ll probably raise the most money.  He has the biggest organization. He has the most experienced staff, and he’s a second time candidate.  The Republicans have had a tendency in the past to nominate the next person in line and to some degree I think that’s true, especially with Governor Huckabee out of the race.  His problem is that he’s not very popular among his fellow Republicans, especially the other candidates.  They don’t think he’s very genuine, and there’s some signs that Republican voters don’t either. In 2008, he was the leader at one point in both Iowa and New Hampshire and ended up losing in both states, and there was some sense that he didn’t wear well as a candidate whereas some candidates, the more they campaign, the more popular they get. Seemed with him, the more he campaigned, the less popular he got.  So, he obviously [has] a lot of strong opposition from the more conservative wing of the party that thinks he’s a closet moderate.  He was pretty moderate when he ran for Senator against Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts in 1994.  He’s changed a number of his positions on social issues since then, and he also politically, he’s unlikely to win Iowa and is unlikely to make it as the major focus of his campaign, although I’m sure he will campaign there, but he’s put all of his major emphasis on New Hampshire.  He was of course governor of Massachusetts. He has a summer home in New Hampshire. He announced his candidacy there, and the fact is he has to win in New Hampshire to be in the race.  You become a player in the race once the voting starts by winning in one of the early states.  If you can’t win in the early states, you’ve got a lot of problems because the support tends to go to those who are succeeding.  He has to win in New Hampshire.  If he doesn’t win in New Hampshire, he’s not going to win in South Carolina, and he probably won’t win in Florida and maybe not even Michigan where his father was governor, so that’s what he has to do.  But, he starts out as the favorite in New Hampshire and is likely to be one of the two or three finalists in the GOP race.

The real wildcard in the Republican race is, of course, is Sarah Palin, the former Alaska Governor who gained instant fame when John McCain picked her as his running mate in 2008.  She has a lot of hardcore support in the Republican Party, but even a lot of Republicans have become increasingly convinced that she would not be a good president.  It’s interesting to note that she’s known for, of course, attacking what she calls the lame stream media, but some of the most trenchant criticism of her have come from Republicans and from conservatives, so it’s not only the liberals who are after her.  She showed in her visit to the historical sites in the week of Memorial Day again her ability to command the spotlight and get attention and did in some way detract from Governor Romney’s announcement in New Hampshire. She certainly got a part of that story with her criticism of him.  So… but whether she’s running for president or just wants to have a role in it, she certainly — she’s expressed views about certain candidates. She’s critical of Governor Romney. She praises Rick Perry whom she supported also when Governor Perry was running for re-nomination in Texas against Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. The general assumption is that she probably is not enthusiastic about Michele Bachmann’s candidacy because she wants to be the número uno conservative Republican Tea Party woman, and it doesn’t help her for someone else to emerge who’s a competitor for that. But exactly what’s she’s up to, whether she’s running isn’t clear. She could have a big impact on the race by supporting one of the other candidates.  She may well do that, so I think she’ll remain a figure to watch even if she’s not going to be a candidate.

Listen to Part 4:

John Sparks
What about former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum?

Carl
Now, he’s one of the longer shots in the race.  Of course, the last time he ran for office, which was for re-election in Pennsylvania in 2006, he got beaten rather badly, and he’s one of the very — one of the candidates making a strong pitch for the religious conservative vote.   His… he almost certainly will have to show something in Iowa, and that’s going to be a tough job for him because he’s up against two candidates who are from the neighboring state of Minnesota, former Governor Tim Pawlenty and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.  And Congresswomen Bachmann, in fact, is an Iowa native, born in Waterloo, Iowa, where she’s going to announce her candidacy.  Newt Gingrich, when he announced — the former House Speaker, when he announced his candidacy a couple of weeks ago, had a rough time because of his criticism of the Ryan budget, the Medicare proposal, and then he got some bad publicity over his buying expensive jewelry for his wife at Tiffany’s, but at the same, he was drawing pretty big crowds in Iowa, and he could be a player in the Iowa Caucuses too.  So, Santorum is going to have beat out most of those three – Bachmann, Pawlenty, and Gingrich, and I’m not sure that he can do that.

John Sparks
Those were the next three on my list, and there’s also another that has consistently made some noise down in Texas, Ron Paul, the Libertarian.

Carl
I think Ron Paul has a limited amount of support.  I mean he has a fervent following, and he will show once again that he has that following, but there’s no sign that he can broaden that support enough to be nominated.  He’s sort of an odd duck in some ways in this field because being a Libertarian, he does not share all of the conservative views on the social issues, and he’s also against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He’s voted against funding for that.  He’s going to be a lively figure in the debates, but he’s almost certainly not going to be the nominee.

John Sparks
There’s another Libertarian, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, what are his chances?

Carl
Well, I think they’re pretty minimal because it’s hard to get attention in a big field.  The Democrats discovered that last time. There was some fairly prominent Democrats running like former Governor — then Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Senator Biden of Delaware, who of course, ended up as the Vice Presidential nominee, Chris Dodd, a prominent Senator from Connecticut, and they were unable to get traction because the race was so focused around Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and even John Edwards, who had made a good run for the nomination four years earlier, before, of course, all of this legal problems arose, had trouble becoming the third getting into that Clinton Obama mix.  So, I think some of the Republicans are going to have the same problem, and a rather obscure figure from a small Western state is going to have a lot of, like Paul Johnson, will have a lot of trouble breaking through.

John Sparks
You mentioned Michele Bachmann, and that makes me think of the Tea Party and another Tea Party type I think of Herman Cain, the radio personality…

Carl
Well and Herman Cain is the early surprise in the Republican field.  Herman Cain is a black businessman from Atlanta who headed — was it Godfather’s Pizza, I think?

John Sparks
Yes.

Carl
And, he also has radio talk show. He… the Tea Party folks love him, and although he’s sort of been dismissed by the establishment, his numbers have consistently risen so that, for example, there was a recent poll in Iowa in which I think Romney ran first, about 20%, but Cain was tied for second with Sarah Palin, and I should’ve mentioned him among the candidates in Iowa who have a potential of breaking into that religious conservative group, the ones that Santorum was going to have trouble beating because Cain is certainly a player in that too.

Listen to Part 5:

Carl

Now, whether he can beat out Michele Bachmann and how Pawlenty figures in it, those are two interesting… the two candidates from Minnesota.  Pawlenty, the former governor, appears to have gone somewhere to the right since he became a candidate.  While he has an evangelical background, his basic appeal was that he was a reasonably successful conservative governor of a liberal state and got along with the Democrats and the legislature for the most part, and that would be his argument. He’s… now he realizes that being from Minnesota he has to make a showing in Iowa, and so he’s trying to do that two ways. One is by spending an awful lot of time in Iowa, which is exactly the right thing historically to do, and the other is putting a little more stress on the social issues that he might otherwise.  Now, he’ll be up against Michele Bachmann, the congresswoman from Minnesota, who was, as I said, born in Waterloo, Iowa.  She’s sort of a surprise in the field.  I think as long as Sarah Palin looked like a candidate, no one had paid much attention to Michele Bachmann, but Sarah Palin increasingly looks to most Republicans and most analysts like she’s not running, and I’ve seen Michele Bachmann speak before conservative audience, and she gets a pretty good reaction. People like Romney and Pawlenty are not very exciting figures, so someone who can create a little excitement in the right of the party, like a Michele Bachmann or like a Herman Cain, might show something.

The Iowa Caucuses are sort of an odd thing because being caucuses, the turnout tends to be less than in primaries when — and tends to be more confined to the activists in the party. Now that was not true of the Democrats in 2008. The turnout for the caucuses was enormous and far exceeded what they had in their previous gubernatorial primaries. Republican turnouts have tended to be smaller and have tended over the last 25 years to become increasingly conservative so that about two-thirds of the turnout for the caucuses are… identify themselves as religious conservatives.  The only way one of those people from that group doesn’t win there is if there’s so many of them that they divide up the group and someone more moderate like a Romney slips through in a crowded field.

Listen to Part 6:

John Sparks
There are two other names from the past that sometimes get mentioned, Texas Governor Rick Perry and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.  What about those two?

Carl
Ironically, Perry, who’s quite conservative, supported Giuliani in 2008.  I don’t think anyone knows quite what Giuliani’s up to.  I mean, we hadn’t heard very much from him. Now, he has shown up in New Hampshire a couple times and is making noises about running. My view of Giuliani is that if he didn’t make it last time, he’s not going to make it this time. It’s four more years since the attacks of 2001, which is where he made his reputation.  The war against terrorism is not a big issue, not as big an issue as it was four and eight years ago.  He still has positions on the social issues.  He’s pro abortion rights and pro gay marriage that are to the left of the Republican mainstream and I just don’t see how he — I think he could play some havoc with the Republican field in New Hampshire, I mean, one of the things — one of the potential problems for Romney in New Hampshire, and we’ve not mentioned one who’s more likely to run, former Governor Huntsman of Utah who was recently President Obama’s Ambassador to China, also on the more moderate side of the Republican party.  If a Huntsman or a Giuliani gained any traction in New Hampshire, and Huntsman will concentrate heavily there, they could squeeze Romney.  Romney… On the right side of Romney are going to be the social conservatives and contrary to some belief, there are more Tea Party types in New Hampshire than one would think.  However, the primary is probably going to be less conservative than say the Iowa Caucuses in part because in New Hampshire independents can vote, and because there’ll be no Democratic contest, you’re going to find a lot of independents voting in the Republican primary, and that’s the hope for Romney, but it’s also the hope of someone like Huntsman or a Giuliani if he would run.  And, if a Giuliani or a Huntsman gains any traction there, I’d say Romney could get squeezed. The centrist sometimes has — probably he’d be the centrist in that field.

Rick Perry, now that’s an interesting thing too. Until a couple of weeks ago, he consistently said he didn’t want to run for president. He had no intention of going to Washington. He wasn’t interested in it.  Then all of a sudden as the legislative session neared the end of its regular session, he said, well, he’s going to think about it.  He would have some appeal in the Republican Party.  Although he started out as a Democrat, he was Al Gore’s state chairman in 1988, he’s been elected statewide six times as a Republican, supports all the social issues, came off a legislative session where they’ve passed legislation to require a sonogram for women who are planning to have abortions, tightened the podium rules, did a number of things the conservatives like.  He could have some appeal to the Republicans. I think he’d be a pretty tough candidate to sell in a general election. For one thing, he also has flirted with the idea of secession. He said a year or so ago that one alternative to the heavy handed Washington was for the states to secede.  Well, it’s hard to run for president of the United States if you’re talking about seceding from the union.  As I say, some of the Republicans might appreciate that, but it’s hard to see how that would help him in a general election. I’m a bit skeptical that either Giuliani or Perry will run.

Listen to Part 7:

John Sparks
At this stage of the game with so many out there testing the waters, at this point in time is the 2012 race the president’s race to lose nonetheless?

Carl
I think that’s probably still true.  It’s interesting when you look back at presidents running for re-election and what their record is.  Jimmy Carter in 1980 is the only time since the 1890’s when a president was beaten for re-election four years after his party regained the White House. In other words, the other presidents who’ve been beaten for re-election, and there’s several of them, their party had been either in office several terms, for example former — the first President Bush was beaten for re-election, but that would’ve been the fourth consecutive Republican term in the presidency. The same thing was true of President Hoover in 1932.  Gerald Ford, of course, was beaten in 1976, but he’d never been elected president. So, Carter is the only one who when he brought his party back into office, then four years later his party — he and his party lost it.  Presidents have an enormous advantage running for re-election. On the other hand, there’s been a lot of attention to a statistic that no president’s been re-elected with the unemployment rate higher than 7.2%, which it was when Reagan was elected, re-elected. It almost certainly will be above that in November of 2012.  On the other hand, as Nate Silver pointed out in 538.com, which is a branch of the New York Times, Reagan would undoubtedly had been re-elected with a higher unemployment rate because he won by such an enormous margin.

So, I think that the economy is the real problem but that Obama still starts the year as the favorite, but things change.  At this point before the 1992 election, no one thought there was a realistic chance the Democrats would beat the first President Bush, but — and the top Democrats who were being someone who people thought could be presidents, most of them were not running in the race at the time in the same way that some top Republicans are not running this time.  And, Bush continued to lose support, and Bill Clinton turned out to be a very good candidate, and Bush got beaten by Clinton, so a lot can change. It’s still very early.  The economy at this point next year is going to be a lot more important than the economy at this point this year.

John Sparks

Carl, it’s always a pleasure talking to you, and we’ll look forward to visiting again down the road as the race shapes up.

Listen to Part 8:

6/9: Weiner Still Alive: Majority in Congressional District Don’t Want Resignation

As more salacious details about Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal are revealed, politicians from both parties are calling for his resignation, but his constituents don’t agree.

Click Here for Complete June 9^th, 2011 New York’s 9^th Congressional District NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this NY1-Marist Poll, a majority of registered voters in New York’s 9^th Congressional District — 56% — do not think Anthony Weiner should resign from Congress.  However, one-third — 33% — believe he should, and 12% are unsure.

“Congressman Weiner’s constituents are drawing a line between his ethical conduct and professional judgment.  The bottom line: they’re still in his corner on the question of resignation,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As for his re-election prospects, that’s still very much up in the air.”

Judgment is at the heart of the question.  Voters are weighing in on the line between his private life and his public responsibilities.  46% of adults in Congressman Weiner’s district view the scandal as solely a lapse in personal judgment.  10% think it brings into question primarily his professional judgment.  29% are not confident in either his personal or professional judgment.  15% do not see this as an issue of judgment.

When it comes to the legality of the congressman’s online actions, nearly three in four adults in the 9^th district — 73% — believe the congressman acted unethically but not illegally.  11% say he behaved illegally while 9% report he did nothing wrong.  Seven percent are unsure.

Voters in the congressman’s district, however, are torn about how effective he will be in carrying out his duties in Congress if he doesn’t step down.  While nearly half of voters — 48% — say Congressman Weiner will be effective, 43% report he will not be.  Included in those who believe the congressman will carry out his duties well are 11% who say he will be very effective and 37% who believe he will be effective.  In contrast, 28% say the congressman will not be very effective, and 15% have no confidence in his ability to effectively serve his constituents in light of this scandal.  Nine percent are unsure.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner Resignation?  (New York’s 9^th Congressional District)

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Judgment

Table: Views on Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Actions (New York’s 9^th Congressional District)

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Effectiveness in Congress

Anthony Weiner’s Electoral Future Hangs in the Balance

If Anthony Weiner runs for re-election in 2012, voters are taking a wait and see approach.  While 31% of the congressman’s constituents say they would definitely vote against Anthony Weiner, 30% report they will definitely vote for him, and a notable 38% are undecided.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Electability

Anthony Weiner Approval Rating at 44%… Favorability Low

When it comes to the job Anthony Weiner is doing in Congress, 44% approve.  This includes 12% who think he is doing an excellent job in office and 32% who report his is doing a good one.  More than one in five — 22% — give the congressman fair marks while 16% rate him poorly.  17% are unsure how to rate Anthony Weiner, and 2% have never heard of him.

When it comes to Anthony Weiner’s favorability, 42% have an unfavorable impression of him while 38% view him favorably.  One in five — 20% — are unsure.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Job Approval Rating

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Favorability

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

6/7: Weiner Undone: Slim Majority Want Weiner to Remain in Congress… No Go for Mayor

In the wake of U.S. Representative Anthony Weiner’s emotional admission that he engaged in inappropriate online activity with women other than his wife, a little more than half of New York City registered voters still want Weiner to remain in Congress.  A majority, however, say Weiner should bid farewell to his hopes of becoming the next mayor of New York City.

Click Here for Complete June 7, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this NY1-Marist Poll conducted just hours after the story broke, 51% of New York City voters believe Anthony Weiner should not resign from Congress.  30% disagree and think he should step down, and a notable 18% are unsure.

However, when it comes to the 2013 race for New York City mayor, voters want Congressman Weiner to stay out.  A majority — 56% — do not want him to make a bid for the office, including a majority of Democrats.  25% of registered voters would like to see him campaign, and 19% are unsure.

“All of this spells trouble for Congressman Weiner and his political future,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For voters, there are questions of judgment — never a winner for an office-holder.”

House of Representatives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is calling for an investigation into Weiner’s actions, but do New York City residents think Congressman Weiner acted illegally?  Slightly more than six in ten — 61% — believe his behavior was unethical but not illegal.  13% say his actions constituted illegal behavior while the same proportion — 13% — report Weiner did nothing wrong.  An additional 14% are unsure.

The congressman has admitted that his actions were personal flaws and apologized to his wife, his family, his constituents, and the media.  However, those in New York City don’t think his teary mea culpa was sincere.  Nearly two-thirds of New York City residents — 64% — report Weiner apologized only because he got caught while 24% think he is truly sorry.  12% are unsure.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner Resignation?

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 NYC Mayoralty?

Table: Views on Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Actions

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Apology

Racy Online Rendezvous: The Exception or the Rule?

While a majority of New York City residents — 54% — believe sending lewd photos over the Internet is unusual practice for politicians, a notable 30% of New Yorkers think it is common practice.  16% are unsure.

Table: Is Sending Lewd Photos Over the Internet Common Practice by Politicians?

Does the Internet Ruin Lives? Internet Users Don’t Regret Behavior, but View Lewd Photo Exchange as Cheating

Most Internet users don’t have any regrets when it comes to their own online behavior.  83% say they have not said or sent anything over the Internet that they regret while 17% have.

Congressman Anthony Weiner admitted yesterday that he exchanged lewd photos and engaged in other provocative activities with women other than his wife.  Do New York City residents consider that to be cheating?  Six in ten — 60% — think it does constitute infidelity.  About one-third — 32% — says it does not, and 7% are unsure.

If residents discovered their partner engaged in this type of behavior, half would hold a grudge. In fact, 50% report they would not forgive their partner if he or she sent sexually charged photos of themselves to someone over the Internet while 33% would forgive them.  17% are unsure.

Women are less likely than men to forgive these indiscretions.  A majority of women — 54% — would not forgive their partner while 27% would.  This compares with 45% of men who wouldn’t let go of the incident while 40% would move past it and forgive their partner.

So, overall, does social media, like Facebook, do more harm than good, or does it do more good than harm?  A majority — 54% — believe it is hurtful to relationships while 19% say it makes personal connections better.  More than one in four New York City residents — 27% — are unsure.

Table: Personal Online Practices

Table: Is Sending Lewd Photos Over the Internet Cheating?

Table: Forgive Partner for Engaging in Inappropriate Online Behavior?

Table: Social Media: More Good Than Harm or More Harm Than Good?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

6/3: The Battle of the Cliches: Is it a “Tossup” or a “Slam Dunk?”

Ever wonder why a landslide election result might be referred to as “no contest” but you’d never hear “nolo contendere” used to describe a sporting event when one team runs up a lopsided score?

The answer is simple.  Political terminology doesn’t export well outside the Beltway crowd.  In contrast, a sports metaphor can go the distance in providing the dug-out chatter used to describe the ecstasy of victory or the agony of defeat.  That is, after all, what often accompanies election coverage when a candidate lands a knockout punch and his opponent goes down for the count, or his handler throws in the towel.  No split decision there.

As a practitioner of political punditry, give me a good sports metaphor to label a critical campaign moment, preferably during the appropriate sports season (this is the super bowl of primary nights) and voila! I’m in sound-bite Heaven. But, imagine Bob Costas turns to me in the announcer’s booth for a morsel of color commentary, and I pull out a pithy phrase from my Ph.D. dissertation in political science.  I’m one and done, and it doesn’t even have to occur during March Madness!

My list of sports favorites is long.  Baseball provides politics with a whole line-up of candidate commentary.  He stepped up to the plate.   He hit that question out of the park.  He’s pitching a shutout.  He threw ‘em a curve ball. Bet you’ve got a bull pen full of one-liners, as well.

Football phrases are also aplenty. He should drop ten and punt (a Marist Poll office favorite).  He’s doing an end run.  He fumbled that question.  And, of course, there’s the desperate candidate tossing a Hail Mary pass.  Maybe you’d like to suit up and tackle a few on your own.

But, first, grant me a moment of political pollster fantasy and permit my turning the world of sports commentary inside-out, or is it upside-down?  Either way, with the aid of an occasional translation, it might go something like this.

It’s the ninth inning of the inaugural game of the season… Of course, I mean Opening Day.  The pitcher seems to be losing his delivery and is in danger of losing the arms race altogether.  The spectators in the galleries, who turned out in record numbers for the inauguration, are growing restless and calling for cloture.

The commander-in-chief (the manager) consults his Secretary of Health and Human Services (we’re talking team trainer here).  “Relieve him of his responsibilities,” the Secretary pleads.  Costas asks me, “What do you think he’ll do?”   My retort: “Bob, I think the chief executive is going to override the recommendations of his advisor.  There’s no need to ration resources this early in the session or mandate a change.”

The chief executive fears his policy will not be supported by the campaign operations team out in the field and calls for a stoppage to head off the need to exercise his veto.  They gather in the middle of the political spectrum.   They talk and talk and talk.

“Bob, I think the judge (home plate umpire, for those of you who haven’t figured this all out by now) has heard enough and wants to end this filibuster.  Yes, we finally have an executive decision here.   The commander in chief is, indeed, sticking with the incumbent.”

“Right you are, Professor.”

“He’s counting on his opposition research here, Bob.  He’s ordered an over shift to the right. No room for a margin of error…It worked…ball game over, motion to adjourn!”

On the field, “thanks for letting me complete my term,” the pitcher quips to the commander in chief as he leaves the dais.

What have we learned from this “reality politics” word game?  Well, we’re just in time for the opening bell for sports clichés for election cycle 2012.  And, I’m warming up on the sidelines. The morning line has been established.  There are front-runners and long-shots.  Maybe the favorite will put the field away, or maybe, it’ll come down to the wire and be a photo finish.  Can a challenger step up in class and outdistance all comers in this 2012 Breeders’ Cup of politics?

I wonder what the Gallup Poll or the Roper Archives have to say about the current entries.  Or, better yet, the Maris Poll.  Oops, I mean the MarisT Poll.

This much is certain.  The likelihood is that next spring the Triple Crown will not refer to the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness, and the Belmont stakes.  Saddle up for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and watch the candidates jockey for position.