4/29: Political Grab Bag

The recent national McClatchy-Marist Poll contains many interesting nuggets.  Here are a few worth examining more closely:

Obama in Trouble?

The numbers suggest that President Obama’s re-election prospects could be in jeopardy.  With everything going for him in ’08, he tallied 53%.  Now, only 37% of the electorate tells us they would definitely vote to re-elect him.

“Why Not Me,” Asks the GOP Field

The GOP clearly wants to run against Obama in the worst possible way, and, so far, that’s exactly what they’ve been doing.  With a potential field of more than a dozen candidate wannabes, no one has come forward who tops Obama.  In fact, it is hard to distinguish a top tier of challengers.  “The Donald” is taking most of the oxygen out of the room leaving the rest of the field trying to catch their breath.  In electoral politics, it is still early.  But, the adage of needing someone to beat someone still reigns in politics.  And, so far, the GOP has to be worried over what they have to offer.

Pointing an Economic Finger

There’s plenty of blame to go around, but…

I must admit to being surprised by the 63% of the national electorate in the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll who still thinks that President Obama largely inherited the country’s economic woes.  The percentage is down from the 80% who expressed this view two years ago.  But, you’d think that by now more of the recession minded voters would be placing their displeasure at the doorsteps of the current occupant of the White House.  If these numbers hold as the president swings into campaign mode, expect Obama to mention it every now and then.  Maybe a little more than that!

Tea-Partiers…Are You serious?

Well, it seems like I’m surprised yet again from the recent national poll.  This time, it’s the Tea Party crowd that caught me off guard.  On the question of cutting Medicare and Medicaid to deal with the deficit, 70% of these anti-spending, anti-big government voters object to going after these programs.

What’s a Washington Pol to Do?

And now, for the understatement of the year (decade? ages?)… Voters around the nation are very dissatisfied with the political leadership in Washington.  64% think the nation is headed in the wrong direction.  President Obama’s approval rating is stuck at 40-something.  But, only 34% approve of job the Congressional Democrats are doing.  As for the beneficiaries of last November’s political shellacking of the president, well, the GOP in Congress bottoms out at a 30% approval rating.

The Congressional Top Spot

Not surprisingly, the top priority for voters is for Washington to reduce the deficit.  But, the devil is definitely in the details.  There is a wide chasm between the public sentiments and what Washington is likely to deliver.  A majority of voters, 54%, do not want to reduce military spending.  A full 80% oppose cuts in Medicare and Medicaid.  And, more than two out of three voters oppose raising the debt ceiling to deal with the federal budget deficit.  The Obama proposal to raise taxes on the wealthy has substantial support with voters but will clearly face major obstacles in becoming law.

What’s a Washington pol to do?  So far, the public has been served with very little beyond partisan bickering and posturing and the approaching elections are unlikely to help.

4/28: Obama’s Handling of the Economy at All-Time Low

Registered voters nationally are not satisfied with how President Barack Obama is handling the nation’s economy.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, four in ten voters — 40% — approve of how the president is dealing with the country’s economy while nearly six in ten — 57% — disapprove.  Only 3% are unsure.  Mr. Obama’s approval rating on the economy is the lowest of his presidency.  His previous low was last September when just 41% gave him a thumbs-up on the issue.

Click Here for Complete April 28, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When Marist last reported this question in January, voters divided.  At that time, 44% approved of how the president dealt with the economy while 48% disapproved.  Eight percent were unsure.

“These economic numbers could spell trouble for President Obama’s re-election prospects,” says Dr. Lee M.Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Oddly, though, he still isn’t being faulted for the sluggish economy.  Most think it was there waiting for him when he took office.”

There has been a change among Democrats and independents on this question.  While 71% of Democrats approve of how the president is handling the economy, 27% disapprove.  This is a 12 percentage point increase in the proportion of Democrats who disapprove since January.  Among independent voters, 34% approve while more than six in ten — 63% — disapprove.  Here, too, there has been a jump in the proportion of voters who are dissatisfied with how Mr. Obama is dealing with the economy.  In January, half — 50% — shared this view.

There has been little change among Republicans.  11% think the president is on the right economic track while 87% do not.  In January, those proportions stood at 7% and 88%, respectively.

Disapproval of the president’s fiscal management spans economic divides.  42% of those who earn less than $50,000 annually approve while a majority — 56% — disapprove.  Among those who make $50,000 or more, 41% approve while 57% disapprove.

While voters aren’t pleased with how the president is handling the economy, they still do not blame him for the nation’s current economic conditions.  63% say they think today’s economic situation is mostly something he inherited while 30% believe it is a result of his own policies.  Seven percent are unsure.

These proportions are similar to those reported in Marist’s January survey.  At that time, the same proportion — 63% — thought the country’s economic conditions were mostly inherited, 25% said they were a result of President Obama’s policies, and 12% were unsure.

Table: Handling of the Economy
Table: Handling of the Economy Over Time

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited
Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited Over Time

Changing Tides … Nearly Six in Ten Americans Think More Bad Economic News is Ahead

Many Americans are no longer optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy.  57% of residents nationwide believe that, when thinking about the country’s economy, the worst is yet to come.  However, 39% say the worst is behind us.  Only 4% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

Public opinion on this question has flipped.  In January, a majority — 54% — thought the worst was over while 39% said there was more bad news on the economic horizon.  Seven percent were unsure.

This increased pessimism crosses party, economic, and gender divides.  And, while optimism has waned among all age groups, younger Americans, those under 30, are more optimistic than their older counterparts.

Table: U.S. Economy – Will It Get Worse?
Table: U.S. Economy – Will It Get Worse? (Over Time)

One in Four Americans Think Personal Family Finances will Get Worse

On a more personal level, 25% of Americans think their personal family finances will get worse in the coming year, 27% report their financial situation will get better, and nearly half — 48% — say they will stay about the same.

There has been a slight bump in the proportion of Americans who think their personal financial picture will get worse.  When Marist last reported this question in December, 19% thought they were in for more belt tightening, 29% believed their economic picture would get better, and a majority — 52% — reported their economic situation would stay about the same.

Table: Your Personal Finances – Better, Worse, or the Same?

Table: Your Personal Finances — Better, Worse, or the Same? (Over Time)

Recession Still Looms for Americans

News that the United States is no longer officially in a recession has not trickled down to most Americans.  71% of residents think the nation is in a recession while 25% do not.  Four percent are unsure.  These proportions remain virtually unchanged from January when the same proportion — 71% — believed the country was in a recession, 24% thought the United States was not in a recession, and 5% were unsure.

Table: U.S. in a Recession
Table: U.S. in a Recession Over Time

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

4/28: Recovery … What Recovery?

You’d think with the “official” economic recession long over, according to the calculations of economists, and with President Obama and Wall Street imploring the Congress not to do anything to disrupt the supposed economic rebound, that maybe, just maybe, it would show up in the national poll numbers.   Well, hold onto your seats, folks, because it doesn’t!

So, what’s going on in the realm of public opinion?  Is the public not plugged into what the economists know? Or, are the economists not in touch with what the public continues to experience?

About 7 in 10 Americans, according to the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll, still believe the nation is mired in an economic recession.  Admittedly, this represents a drop from the 79% who felt this way in December, but, it’s consistent with the 71% who shared this view in January.

And, what about the future?  A majority of Americans, 57%, think the worst is yet to come for the U.S. economy.  Only 39% tell us the worst is behind us.  That’s a flip in the numbers from January when the holiday economic bounce led 39% of people to think the worst was yet to come but an encouraging 54% thought the worst had passed.

Although people divide between those who think their personal finances will get better or worse in the coming year, this isn’t exactly anything to write home about.  Instead, it’s a departure from prior polls when more people thought their personal finances would improve in the future instead of worsen.

How does this translate for President Obama and his re-election prospects?  Well, already 57% of voters nationwide disapprove of his handling of the economy, typically an ominous sign for an incumbent.  But, voters don’t yet blame him for sky-rocketing gas prices, and by more than 2 to 1 they think these economic conditions are mostly something he inherited rather than the result of his own policies.  Expect the president to periodically remind voters of this perception as he transitions into campaign mode.

4/27: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Registered voters nationwide aren’t happy with how President Barack Obama is handling the economy.  How bad is the situation for the president?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full article, click here.

Complete Tables for McClatchy-Marist Poll

4/27: Nuclear Worries: Nearly Six in Ten Concerned Catastrophe Could Strike in States

Japan’s nuclear crisis has raised questions about whether or not an emergency of that proportion could occur in the United States.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, nearly six in ten Americans — 57% — say it could happen here.  Included here are 16% who think it is very likely and 41% who say a nuclear power plant emergency is likely.  However, 31% believe it is not very likely, and 9% report it is not likely at all to happen.  Just 2%are unsure.

Click Here for Complete April 27, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Americans certainly don’t rule out the possibility of a nuclear emergency here,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although a majority think it is likely to be an accident at a power plant, a sizeable proportion is worried about a terror attack.”

If such a power plant emergency were to take place, is the U.S. government prepared to handle it?  Americans divide.  49% report the country is either very prepared or prepared to take on such a tragedy while 48% say it is not very prepared or not prepared at all to do so.  Among those who think the nation is ready to handle this type of situation are 10% who believe the government is very prepared and 39% who say it is prepared.  Looking at those who are less confident, about one-third — 33% — report America is not very prepared, and 15% believe it is not prepared at all.  Just 4% are unsure.

Table: Possibility of Nuclear Power Plant Emergency

Table: U.S. Preparedness for Nuclear Power Emergency

Accident Not an Attack, Say Residents

A majority of Americans — 56% — believe that if the United States were to face a nuclear crisis today, it would be a result of an accident at a nuclear power plant.  However, four in ten — 40% — think an act of terrorism would be behind it.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Cause of Hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Emergency

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

4/26: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Are Americans concerned about a nuclear emergency in the United States?  Do they think the nation is prepared to deal with such an incident, and would they view such a disaster as an accident or an act of terrorism?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full article, click here.

Complete Tables for McClatchy-Marist Poll.

4/21: Split Decision on Obama’s Handling of Situation in Libya

As unrest in Libya continues, President Barack Obama has said that Moammar Gadhafi faces greater pressure to step down.  But, when it comes to U.S. involvement in the region, do registered voters approve of how the president is handling the situation?

Click Here for Complete April 21, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Registered voters nationally divide.  46% disapprove, 44% approve, and one in ten — 10% — are unsure.

“President Obama is walking a fine line on U.S. involvement in Libya,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “In the short run, he has a lot of convincing to do.  Without greater support, in the long run, it’s hard to imagine people won’t increasingly question his policy in the region.”

Partisan politics are in play on this question.  More than six in ten Democratic voters — 63% — approve of how Mr. Obama is dealing with the issue while about two-thirds of Republican voters — 66% — disapprove.  Nearly half of independents — 48% — are dissatisfied with how the president is handling the situation while 42% approve.

Table: Obama’s Handling of the Situation in Libya

Clear Plan for U.S. Involvement in Libya?

Americans divide about whether or not President Obama has a clear idea about what he wants the United States to do in Libya.  47% do not think the president has a clear vision while 46% do.  Seven percent are unsure.

Here, too, there is a partisan split.  69% of Democrats believe President Obama knows what he wants the U.S. to do in Libya while the same proportion of Republicans — 69% — say the president’s vision is muddied.  A majority of independents — 53% — think the president does not have a clear idea about what he wants America’s role in Libya to be.

Do Americans, themselves, understand what the role of the United States is in Libya?  Nearly six in ten — 57% — do not while 42% believe they have a clear idea about what the objective is.  One percent is unsure.  Looking at party, 58% of independents say they do not have a clear idea about what the U.S. is trying to do in Libya.  Republicans and Democrats divide.  50% of Republicans don’t have a clear picture of the nation’s objective while 48% do.  Among Democrats, half — 50% — say they understand what America is trying to achieve in Libya while 46% do not.

Table: Obama’s Vision for U.S. Involvement in Libya
Table: Americans’ Understanding of U.S. Involvement in Libya

The Great Divide: Voters Rate Obama’s Handling of Foreign Policy

When it comes to how President Obama is handling foreign policy in general, registered voters also divide.  48% disapprove, and 46% approve.  Six percent are unsure.  There has been little change on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in November.  At that time, 47% disapproved of how the president was tackling foreign policy while 44% approved.  Nine percent were unsure.

Table: Handling Foreign Policy
Table: Handling Foreign Policy Over Time

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

4/21: Mideast Turmoil, U.S. Oil Companies Blamed for High Gas Prices

As the price of gasoline skyrockets, Americans have no trouble pointing a proverbial finger.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, the turmoil in the Middle East and U.S. oil companies are the most to blame.  36% of U.S. residents think the volatility in the Middle East is at fault while 34% say U.S. oil companies are the culprits.  11% hold President Obama and the Democrats responsible, and 7% find fault with Congressional Republicans.  Three percent of Americans blame state and local taxes, and one in ten — 10% — are unsure.

Click Here for Complete April 21, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Democrats — 44% — and independents — 39% — are more likely to blame U.S. oil companies for the high price of gas while Republicans — 37% — are more likely to cite the turmoil in the Middle East.

“There’s plenty of blame to go around for high fuel prices in the minds of Americans,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”Although this is an issue that hits close to home, right now it isn’t being laid at President Obama’s doorstep.”

The high price of gas is taking its toll on drivers nationally.  A majority — 55% — have changed their driving habits because of rising costs.  45% have not, and fewer than 1% are unsure.

There are regional differences.  Majorities in the Midwest — 61% — West — 57% — and South — 53% — have altered their driving practices.  In the Northeast, 48% have changed their habits while a slim majority — 52% — say they are hitting the road the same as always.

Older Americans — 59% — are more likely than younger residents — 49% — to have changed their driving practices because of the high price of gas.

Table: Cause of High Gas Prices
Table: Impact of Gas Prices on Driving Habits

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

4/20: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Do voters approve of how President Barack Obama is handling the situation in Libya?  Do Americans blame the unrest in the Middle East for rising gas prices, or do they believe something else is the cause?  Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll.  To read the full article, click here.

Complete Tables for McClatchy-Marist Poll

4/20: Campaign 2012: Obama’s Re-election Chances

President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationwide — 44% — say they definitely plan to vote against Mr. Obama in 2012.  37% report they definitely plan to vote for him, and 18% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete April 20, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Despite the president’s transition into campaign mode, little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last asked it in November.  At that time, 48% of voters said they will not support the president in his re-election bid while 36% thought they would.  16%, at the time, were unsure.

“The president is hoping lightning strikes in the same place twice,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If there is a silver lining for his re-election, it’s the lack of clarity in the GOP field.”

The president continues to struggle with those all-important independent voters.  47% of these voters say they don’t plan on casting their ballot for Obama while 32% do.  21% are unsure.  In the fall, half — 50% — believed they would back another candidate while three in ten — 30% — reported they would support the incumbent president.  20% were unsure.

Table: Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Romney and Huckabee Close the Gap with Obama… Palin and Trump Trail Far Behind

How do some of the most talked about potential GOP candidates fare against the president?  When given the choice between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the president, voters divide.  46% of registered voters say they would back the president while 45% say they would cast their ballot for Romney.  Nine percent are undecided.

When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in January, Mr. Obama had a 13 percentage point lead over Romney.  At that time, a slim majority — 51% — said they would vote for the president while 38% thought they would back Romney.  11% were undecided.

The president has lost ground among independent voters.  Currently a plurality — 45% — back Romney while 42% support Obama.  13% are undecided.  Previously, the president held a 10 percentage point lead over Romney.

When paired with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, President Obama has a slight lead.  48% of voters say they would support the president in this hypothetical contest while 43% believe they would back Huckabee.  Nine percent are undecided.  However, Huckabee has narrowed the gap.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 12 percentage points separated the two.  In January, half of voters — 50% — said Obama was their candidate while 38% said the same about Huckabee.  12% were undecided.

However, Obama outdistances former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  A majority — 56% — believe they will vote for Obama if Palin receives the Republican nomination.  34%, though, say they will cast their ballot for Palin.  One in ten — 10% — are undecided.  In January, the same proportion of voters — 56% — supported Obama while 30% backed Palin.  13%, at the time, were undecided.

And, there’s been much speculation about a presidential run by businessman Donald Trump.  Is he a strong contender when he’s toe-to-toe with President Obama?  In this contest, Obama garners a majority of voters — 54% — to 38% for Trump.  Eight percent are undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Huckabee
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Huckabee (Over Time)
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)
Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Obama/Trump

Romney, Huckabee Top Republican Field, But…

The list of Republican names tossed around as possible 2012 presidential candidates is long, but is there one among them who stands out?  Among Republican and Republican leaning independents, this is what the field looks like:

• 18% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• 17% for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
• 13% for businessman Donald Trump
• 9% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
• 8% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
• 7% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
• 4% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
• 3% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
• 2% for Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels
• 2% for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
• 2% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
• 2% for businessman Herman Cain
• 1% for Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour
• 1% for former Utah Governor and current U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
• 11% are undecided

Other notable findings:

• Romney and Huckabee run evenly among Republicans with 19% each.
• Huckabee is the favorite among Tea Party supporters with 20%.
• Trump tops the list among Republican leaning independents with 18%.

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary
Previous Survey Results for the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

McClatchy-Marist Methodology

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