2/13: NY1/YNN-Marist Poll: Romantic Moon Over Manhattan

Romantic Moon over Manhattan

Perhaps, it’s the iconic scenes in films like An Affair to Remember and When Harry Met Sally or New Yorkers’ own magical memories.  Whatever the reason, more than six in ten New York City residents — 64% — view Manhattan as the city’s most romantic borough.  Brooklyn comes in a distant second with 18% followed by Queens with 9%, Staten Island with 6%, and the Bronx with 3%.

Click Here for Complete February 13, 2011 NYC NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

And, fuhgeddaboud borough loyalty!  Manhattan takes the top spot regardless of New Yorkers’ borough of residence.  83% of those in Manhattan, 66% of those who live in Queens and Staten Island, 64% of Bronx residents, and nearly half of those in Brooklyn — 48% — call Manhattan the city’s most romantic borough.  However, Brooklynites divide.  Four in ten — 40% — say their borough is the most romantic.

Although majorities of all generations view Manhattan as the most amorous borough, more Gen Xers — 70% — and Millennials — 69% — think this to be true compared with 61% of New Yorkers in the Silent-Greatest generation and 57% of Baby Boomers.

More women — 68% — than men — 59% — consider Manhattan to be the most romantic borough in New York City.

Table: Most Romantic Borough

“Will You Marry US, Rudy,” Ask Nearly One-Third of New Yorkers

Which New York City mayor would New York City residents most want to be a part of their wedding ceremony?  Rudy Giuliani edges out Michael Bloomberg.  Giuliani receives 32% while Bloomberg garners 27%.  More than one in five — 23% — would prefer David Dinkins to be present while 19% think Ed Koch to be the best choice.

While Giuliani is the choice of 40% of residents in Queens and Staten Island and 38% in Brooklyn, Bloomberg is preferred by 35% of those in the Bronx.  Manhattan residents divide.  34% would want Dinkins to take part in their wedding ceremony while 32% think Bloomberg would be their best bet.

Generationally, there is little consensus.  A slim majority of Millennials — 51% — would invite Giuliani to their wedding while 31% of Baby Boomers would ask Dinkins.  About a third of the Silent-Greatest generation — 33% — would request Bloomberg.  There is no clear pick among those in Gen X.  Giuliani — 28% — and Bloomberg — 26% — vie for the top spot among this generation followed by Dinkins — 23% — and Koch — 22%.

Table: NYC Mayor in Wedding Ceremony

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology

2/10: “It’s Destiny!” Most Americans Believe in Soul Mates

With Valentine’s Day just around the corner, just how many Americans believe in the concept of soul mates?  According to this Marist Poll, nearly 3 in 4 four residents — 73% — do, but 27% do not.

In fact, more Americans have caught the destined love bug.  When Marist last asked this question in its August survey, 66% reported they believed two people are meant to be together compared with 34% who did not.

Younger Americans are the most starry-eyed.  80% of those under the age of 30 and 78% of those 30 to 44 believe in the idea of soul mates.  This compares with 72% of residents 45 to 59 years old and 65% of those 60 and older.

Most men — 74% — and women — 71% — share this belief in finding the perfect partner.

Table: Americans Who Believe in Soul Mates

Marist Poll Methodology

2/8: Holy Super Powers, Batman! Mind Reading and Time Travel Top List

Superman, Spider-Man, and Wonder Woman step aside!  Americans have their own super hero dreams!  The Marist Poll asked which super power U.S. residents would like to have, and they answered.  More than a quarter — 28% — report they would like to have the ability to read people’s minds, and the same proportion — 28% — say they would like to be able to time travel.  The ability to fly is the preference of 16% while 11% say they wish they could teleport.  10% pick invisibility, and 8% are unsure.

Mind reading tops the list of those in Gen X — 36% — and Americans in the Silent-Greatest generation — 28%.  The number one pick of Baby Boomers — 33% — is time travel.  Time travel and reading minds are closely matched among Millennials, receiving 26% and 25%, respectively.

35% of men wish they could travel through time while 30% of women would like to read people’s minds.

Table: Super Power Preference

Marist Poll Methodology

2/4: Any Way You Crunch the Numbers…

Andrew Cuomo is off to a good start as New York’s Governor.  According to the latest Marist Poll, he has a 71% favorability rating and his job performance stands at 48%.  This translates into most New York voters telling us they like Cuomo and nearly half think, after just one month in office, that he’s doing an excellent or good job.

Andrew Cuomo’s numbers compare well to Marist’s first poll on former Governors Pataki, Spitzer, and Paterson.   Only former Governor Mario Cuomo gives the current Governor Cuomo a run for his money.

Like father, like son.  Despite each one’s popularity, there is a big difference in approach between Cuomo I and Cuomo II.  Mario Cuomo used to wax eloquent about the poetry of running and the prose of governing.  By bridging the gap between his campaign and his administration, Andrew Cuomo made the campaign an investment in political capital that will pay dividends as governor.  For Andrew Cuomo, it’s all prose…. Well, with maybe just a touch of budget passion.

And, so far, it’s paying off.  Although a majority of New York voters still think the state is headed in the wrong direction, the number who thinks it’s on track in the latest Marist Poll has grown from 18% in October to 42%.  Cuomo scores high on leadership, representing all regions of the state, and caring about New Yorkers.  Perhaps, most significantly, a majority thinks he’s fulfilling campaign promises.

The real test for Governor Cuomo will be in the bruising budget battle to come.  58% express confidence in Cuomo’s ability to address the budget.  68% are not confident the state legislature can do the same.

Included in Cuomo’s current approval rating is 19% who are “unsure” about his job performance.   Does he win these “it’s too early to tell’ voters over in the next few months by resolving the fiscal mess?  His political future and, more importantly, New York’s future will depend upon the answer.  To be continued.

2/4: OK, Class, When’s an Approval Rating an Approval Rating?

The quick answer is: when you ask about the approval rating of an elected official.  Unfortunately, that clarity was missing in a slew of recent polls on New York’s Governor Andrew Cuomo and the start of his term in office.

First, Siena College released the findings of a statewide poll which measured Cuomo’s approval rating at 44% but also reported his favorability rating at 70%.  Unfortunately, media coverage of their poll results often twisted the two scores.  Approval rating deals with job performance.  Favorability deals with likeability.  They are not synonymous.

Think back to President Reagan who was well-liked (favorability rating) but typically received lower marks for his job performance (approval rating).  For President Clinton, the opposite was the case.  Higher approval ratings on the job he was doing as president but lower favorability scores tapping into his personal conduct.  So far, President Obama’s favorability numbers have consistently been higher than his approval rating.

Let’s return to the topic at hand and New York’s governor.   Have you done your reading assignment?  Next up was the Quinnipiac University poll which opted out of an approval rating altogether (it was too soon, they claimed) and only asked about Cuomo’s favorability.  But even on Cuomo’s favorability, Quinnipiac found a very different result than Siena … 47% compared to 70%.

Why?  Do I always have to see the same hands?  Let’s turn the page to Lesson #2 in survey research.  Question wording matters.  You get what you ask for.  Quinnipiac asked: “Is your opinion of Governor Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you heard enough about him?”  Siena asked “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Andrew Cuomo?”   A subtle distinction perhaps, but one that makes for a difference in the poll numbers.   36% opted for the Quinnipiac choice “or haven’t you heard enough about him?”   This substantially “reduced” the number of respondents only going for the positive or negative options.  Quinnipiac also included in their calculations the 6% who refused to answer the question.  I’ll offer that as an extra credit assignment if you want to comment on whether that makes good survey sense (or not).

Then finally, there was the tie-breaker poll from Marist.  We found Cuomo’s approval rating at 48% and his favorability at 71%, similar to what Siena found.  The question wording was similar, too.

These polls matter because they all address the important question of whether Governor Cuomo is off to a good start.  He is.  Voters like him (71%).  A greater proportion of New Yorkers also give him a thumbs-up on his first weeks as governor than did for his most recent predecessors.  The answer isn’t lost on the political community, especially the state legislature.

Hope this helps to clear up the confusion.  If there are no other questions, class dismissed.

2/4: The Gridiron vs. Madison Avenue: Game Beats Out Ads

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers will face off this Sunday in Super Bowl XLV.  But, there’s an off-field battle brewing.  Of American adults who are planning to watch the big game this year, will they be tuning in for the game or for the ads?  According to this national Marist Poll, the battle for the Lombardi trophy reigns supreme.  74% say they watch the Super Bowl more for the game while 26% tune in more for the commercials.

Little has changed since last year.  In Marist’s February 2010 survey, 78% reported they watched more for the game while 22% said they wanted to check out the commercials.

There currently is a gender gap.  84% of men are more into the game itself rather than the ads.  This compares with 63% of women.

Table: Watch for the Game vs. Ads

Marist Poll Methodology

2/3: Bloomberg Approval Rating Has Edged Up to 44%

Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job approval rating may have dipped in the aftermath of the December 26^th blizzard, but his rating is now on the mend.  More than four in ten registered voters citywide — 44% — approve of the job Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 10% who say the mayor is doing an excellent job and 34% who report he is doing a good one.  About three in ten — 29% — rate his performance as fair, and 26% say he is doing poorly.  Just 1% is unsure.

Click Here for Complete February 3, 2011 NYC NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When NY1-Marist last reported the mayor’s job approval rating in early January, 37% of voters gave the mayor high marks.  34% thought he was doing a fair job, and 26% believed he was performing poorly.  Three percent were unsure.

“Mayor Bloomberg still lacks majority support, but seems to be weathering the storm,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Mayor Bloomberg continues to struggle in the Bronx where 38% of voters currently approve of his job performance.  Last month, 39% shared this view.  And, although the mayor enjoys a bump in his approval rating in Brooklyn, his rating is still low.  38% of voters in Brooklyn rate Bloomberg’s job performance as above average while 24% thought that way in NY1-Marist’s last survey.  In Manhattan, half approve of the mayor’s job performance while 55% had this opinion last month.  Nearly half of voters in Queens and Staten Island — 49% — now give Bloomberg kudos while 36% did the same in NY1-Marist’s previous survey.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating
Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Majority See City as Back on Track

For the first time since October of 2009, a majority of voters think the city is headed in the right direction.  52% currently view the city as moving on the right path while 44% report it is traveling in the wrong direction.  Four percent are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last asked this question in early January, a majority — 53% — said the Big Apple was moving in the wrong direction while 38% said it was on the correct road.  Nine percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction
Table: New York City Direction Over Time

Black Off to a Blue Start as Schools Chancellor

New York City Schools Chancellor Cathie Black has her work cut out for her.  About one in five registered voters — 21% — think she is doing either an excellent or good job in her new role.  Included here are just 2% who believe she is doing an excellent job and 19% who say she is doing a good one.  Slightly more than one-third — 35% — rate her performance thus far as fair while 19% say she is doing poorly.  A notable 26% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.

Table: New York City Schools Chancellor Cathie Black Approval Rating

Most NYC Voters Want Changes to Union Wage Contracts

Most New York City voters are taking a tough stand on pay raises for union workers.  Just 23% believe workers, including teachers and health care workers, should receive increases like the ones they have gotten in the past.  Nearly four in ten — 38% — report wage increases should be based on merit or performance when their contracts come due, and an additional 27% want union workers to be paid a cost of living increase but nothing else.  Eight percent don’t think they should get any increase in pay.  Five percent are unsure.

Table: Union Wage Contracts (NYC)

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology

2/3: NYC Families Face Tough Budget Decisions

Many New York City residents are feeling the economic pinch and some are making difficult decisions to meet their expenses.  One in five residents in the city — 20% — report they have delayed or have not gone to the doctor when they should have during the past 12 months in order to help manage their family’s budget.  Not surprisingly, income factors into the decision.  One in four residents who earn less than $50,000 annually — 25% — have not gone to the doctor due to financial concerns compared with 16% with higher annual incomes.

Click Here for Complete February 3, 2011 NYC NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Additionally, about one in five city dwellers — 19% — have forgone or put off purchasing needed medications in the past 12 months to make ends meet.  Once again, income comes into play.  More than double the proportion of residents who make less than $50,000 a year — 25% —  compared with those earning more — 12% — have gone without medicine they needed.

“Government is trying to learn to live within its means, but it’s a lesson many New Yorkers already know all too well,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Money matters have also forced 15% of New York City residents to relocate in the last year. Here, too, income matters.  Nearly one in four residents with income below $50,000 — 23% — report they have relocated to save money.  Only 5% of families with higher incomes have done so.

And, 23% of New York City renters have had an added concern during this difficult winter.  This is the proportion of renters who have had to complain to their landlord about a lack of heat in the past month.  26% of lower income renters, compared with 15% of those who earn $50,000 or more annually, have had to contact their landlord to turn up the heat.

Table: Delay or Forgo Visit to a Doctor
Table: Delay or Forgo Medication
Table: Relocate to a Cheaper Home or Apartment
Table: Complained to Landlord About Lack of Heat

City Dwellers Cutting Back on Non-Essentials

Although their choices or circumstances may not be as dire, many New York City residents are cutting back.  A majority of residents — 52% — have put off purchasing big ticket items like a home, car, or major appliance due to financial worries.  Majorities of residents, regardless of income, have delayed making a major purchase.

Smaller purchases have also been put on the financial chopping block.  About seven in ten adults — 69% — have opted out of buying new clothes to make ends meet.  Included here are 75% of those who earn less than $50,000 and 65% of those who make $50,000 or more annually.

It is home cooking for nearly two-thirds of New York City residents.  64% say they have eaten out less in the past year to stretch the value of a dollar.  While 70% of residents who make less than $50,000 report this to be true, even a majority of those who earn $50,000 or more — 58% — have made fewer restaurant reservations.

Nearly six in ten residents — 59% — have cut their entertainment budget to save some extra cash.

And, 62% of New York City residents who vacation report they have taken fewer trips or have vacationed closer to home in the past year to help manage their family’s budget.

On a positive note, New Yorkers are trying to live within their means.  A slim majority — 51% — report they have been able to put aside what they can for a rainy day.  Most New York City residents who have or use credit cards report they have tried not to increase their credit card debt during the last twelve months.  42% state they have “charged it” less.  Only 12% say they have pulled out the plastic more to deal with their personal finances in the past year.  46% say they have used their credit cards about the same amount as they have in the past.

Table: Delay of Major Purchase
Table: Reduced Spending on Clothes
Table: Eat Out Less
Table: Go Out for Entertainment Less
Table: Change Vacation Plans
Table: Save More
Table: Credit Card Use

Glimmer of Optimism about Personal Finances but Worries Remain about NYC Economy

Despite the financial sacrifices Big Apple residents have been making, many are optimistic about the future of their personal finances.  43% think their family financial situation will get better in the coming year, and an additional 44% expect it to stay about the same.  Just 13% believe their money matters will get worse.

But, when it comes to the status of the New York City economy, a plurality of residents — 43% — think it is about the same as it has been.  About one-third — 34% — believe it is getting worse while more than one in five — 23% — report it is getting better.

Table: Personal Family Finances (NYC)
Table: New York City Economy

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology

The Marist Poll’s Barbara Carvalho discusses the millions of New Yorkers making sacrifices due to money woes:

2/1: NYS Economy: Climbing Out of the Fiscal Basement?

Registered voters in New York State may be seeing a small crack in the state’s overcast economic conditions.  More voters statewide still view the state’s economy as getting worse than view it as getting better.  However, fewer voters, than previously, say New York’s economy is deteriorating.

Click Here for Complete February 1, 2011 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

About three in ten voters — 31% — currently view New York’s economy as getting worse while about one in five — 19% — perceive it as getting better.  Half of the electorate — 50% — thinks the Empire State’s economy is about the same as it has been in the past.

When Marist last reported this question at the end of September, 46% believed the state’s economy was getting worse, and 12% said it was improving.  About four in ten — 42% — thought New York’s economy was on a level plain.

“Things are looking better for the New York State economy,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”But, there’s nothing to write home about just yet.”

Regionally, the biggest change has occurred upstate.  37% of upstate voters still report New York’s economy is declining, but that’s an 18 percentage point drop from Marist’s previous survey when 55% had this view.

Voters in New York State also think their family finances have leveled off.  A majority — 54% — say they expect their personal family finances to stay about the same in the coming year.  More than one in four — 27% — think they will get better while 19% expect them to get worse.  Little has changed on this question since September.  At that time, these proportions stood at 58%, 26%, and 16%, respectively.

Table: New York State Economy
Table: New York State Economy Over Time

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year
Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year Over Time

The Great Divide: the NYS Economy

When it comes to the future of the New York State economy, voters divide.  Nearly half — 49% — think the worst is behind us while 47% say the worst is yet to come.  Four percent are unsure.

There is a partisan divide on this question.  While a majority of Democrats — 56% — think the worst is behind us, a majority of Republicans — 57% — believe there is more bad news on the economic horizon.  A slim majority of non-enrolled voters — 52% — report the worst is over and better days are ahead.

Table: NYS Economy – Will It Get Worse?

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology